OFFICIAL 2010-2011 NBA PLAYOFFS THREAD : VOL. MOST. ANTICIPATED. PLAYOFFS. EVER?

[proshares]

BHZ:

So has your team got you down because they "blew it up" at the deadline?

Don't worry, http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=chaCharlotte Bobcats fans. Good things come to those who wait. Patience is a virtue. Dust off all the idioms you can find, because you'll need the reassurance in the next few seasons.

Not all "blowups" are the same, and they're difficult to identify objectively. Typically, the rebuilding franchise receives at least one of the following: first-round picks, cash considerations, a promising young player or an expiring contract. You know one when you see it. Or, rather, you know it when you hear it. Check the quotes in the paper. If a general manager utters buzzwords such as "future," "cap room" or "flexibility" as motivation for trading his star player, that's a surefire sign that the reset button has been pressed.

Downshifting into rebuild mode typically occurs when the organization feels it has reached the ceiling with its current personnel. With http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/1026/gerald-wallaceGerald Wallace and his $10.5 million annual contract in the fold, the Bobcats waded in the outskirts of the playoffs, and the future wasn't much brighter. Although team owner http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/1035/michael-jordanMichael Jordan didn't express it explicitly, he alluded to Charlotte's middling potential in his post-trade comments: "We don't want to be the seventh or eighth seed." Sure enough, he also cited "flexibility" as an impetus for trading Wallace, the only Bobcats player ever to be selected to the All-Star game. In return, the Bobcats received a solid package of http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/682/joel-przybillaJoel Przybilla, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3974/dante-cunninghamDante Cunningham and two future first-round picks.

But does that strategy work? The http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=minMinnesota Timberwolves still haven't shown signs of life after unloading http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/261/kevin-garnettKevin Garnett to the http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=bosBoston Celtics in 2007, failing to win 25 games in a season since they jettisoned the 10-time All-Star, and they have seemingly gone backward since David Kahn took over for Kevin McHale, the KG trade's engineer.

But not all "blow it up" cases have lead to several seasons of futility. To learn more about the Bobcats situation, let's review some recent "blowup" cases that occurred at the trade deadline and how each team has recovered after the smoke cleared.
[h3]http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=memMemphis Grizzlies, 2007-08[/h3]
The most notorious "blow it up" trade of recent memory belongs to the http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/996/pau-gasolPau Gasol to http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lalLos Angeles Lakers deal the Grizzlies made in 2007-08. In exchange for Gasol's services, the Lakers sent http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/981/kwame-brownKwame Brown (expiring contract), http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3197/javaris-crittentonJavaris Crittenton, the rights to Gasol's brother Marc, two first-round draft picks and cash considerations to Memphis. Although the quality of assets didn't match, that type of package qualifies the Gasol deal as the quintessential "blow it up" trade, even if we ignore that there was nothing to detonate. The Grizzlies stood at 13-33 at the time of the trade, following a 22-60 campaign the previous season.

But in classic "blow it up" fashion, the team shed Gasol's bulky salary, which was $13.7 million in 2007-08 with three years and $49 million remaining, and in doing so they started from scratch. Like most rebuilding projects, the turnaround took time. The Grizzlies made their big move up the standings last season, adding 16 wins to their 2008-09 total and finishing 40-42. This year, the team has continued its growth, on pace to add another four wins to their season total.

This was part of the plan, according to GM Chris Wallace. After dealing Gasol, he justified the deal by saying, "I'm not putting us off four or five years. I'm looking at a timetable of two to three years when we'll have the roster where we want it."

It's hard to argue the Grizzlies aren't where they want to be at this point. A look at John Hollinger's playoff odds shows that Memphis projects to finish 46-36, which gives them about an 84 percent chance to make the playoffs. To put this vault in perspective, there's a chance that the Grizzlies double their 2008-09 win total in just two seasons. The fifth seed in the West is within reach.

By trading for Gasol's brother, the Grizzlies could be more efficient with their payroll. Since joining Memphis, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3206/marc-gasolMarc Gasol has yielded about 24 wins worth of production, in terms of estimated wins added (EWA), for the cool price of $10 million. Pau, on the other hand, has produced 44 wins in Los Angeles for about $50 million. That extra cash frees Memphis to invest elsewhere while still enjoying Marc's big-time contributions. Sure, all else equal, the Grizzlies would prefer Pau on the court, but bang for the buck is what rebuilds are all about.
[h3]http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=norNew Orleans Hornets, 2004-05[/h3]
At the 2004-05 deadline, the Hornets traded http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/194/baron-davisBaron Davis to the http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=gswGolden State Warriors for http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/150/speedy-claxtonSpeedy Claxton, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/187/dale-davisDale Davis and cash considerations after the All-Star point guard led the Hornets organization to four straight playoff appearances. Davis had worn out his welcome, carried an enormous contract and failed to keep himself in shape, so the Hornets cut ties with their franchise player.

If we rewind back to the trade and read quotes from then-Hornets GM Allan Bristow, we see that his rhetoric contains all the tell-tale signs of a "blow it up" deal:

"This trade ... shows that we are willing to take the necessary steps to gain the flexibility that will allow us to successfully build our team. We feel that we now have a core of young, dynamic players that will not only mold into an effective unit for the rest of this season, but that we can also use as a base to build upon for the future."

Like the Gasol trade, the Hornets got out of Davis' heavy contract and decided that, in the long run, cash relief was more important to an 11-43 team than his expensive and spotty production. The Hornets finished 2004-05 sporting an 18-64 record and a starting lineup of http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/1706/dan-dickauDan Dickau, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2444/jr-smithJ.R. Smith, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/590/lee-nailonLee Nailon, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2449/jackson-vromanJackson Vroman and http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/99/pj-brownP.J. Brown. The team's ineptitude yielded the fourth slot in the subsequent draft.

Of course, we know what happened next: http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2779/chris-paulChris Paul fell in their lap on draft night. And the rest is history.

It's hard to imagine a scenario that would work out more in the Hornets' favor. Had the http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=atlAtlanta Hawks made the logical selection of http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2798/deron-williamsDeron Williams or Paul with their second pick in the 2005 draft, the Hornets could have easily ended up with http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2797/marvin-williamsMarvin Williams. Instead, the organization managed to land one of the best players in the NBA for years to come, while paying him on a rookie scale contract.

Riding Paul's transformative talent, the Hornets returned to the playoffs just three seasons after dealing Davis. No team can bank on netting a player of Paul's caliber with the fourth pick in a draft, but nonetheless New Orleans hit the jackpot, and Paul reversed the fortunes of the entire franchise overnight.
[h3]http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=wasWashington Wizards, 2009-10[/h3]
Washington general manager Ernie Grunfeld gutted this team like a fish.

In return for Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Brendan Haywood, the Wizards walked away with http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2006/josh-howardJosh Howard, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3237/al-thorntonAl Thornton, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/362/zydrunas-ilgauskasZydrunas Ilgauskas, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2188/quinton-rossQuinton Ross, http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2873/james-singletonJames Singleton, the Cleveland Cavaliers' 2010 first-round pick, the rights to Slovenian forward Emir Preldzic and cash considerations. The Wizards then bought out Ilgauskas, saving the team another $1.5 million.

As expected, Grunfeld dropped the flexibility bomb after deal-making. "We need some freshness and we're getting proven players who will help us," the GM said. "And it gives us some flexibility down the road."

With Thornton being bought out on Tuesday, the only survivor of the Wizards' blowup is Howard -- and that's only because the Wizards re-signed him in the offseason.

The Wizards were 17-33 when the dominos started to fall, and the team eventually stumbled to a 26-56 record. But in the NBA, futility can be rewarded. After all the carnage, the Wizards won the draft lottery and selected http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4237/john-wallJohn Wall with the first pick. He's no Paul, but Wall certainly has the potential to develop into an elite point guard long before his rookie contract expires. The Wiz still have a ways to go, however, as evidenced by their lowly record of 15-44.

And what have the Wizards done with their precious flexibility? Not much. They handed a 5-year, $36 million contract to http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2746/andray-blatcheAndray Blatche in the offseason, and the returns so far have been uninspiring to say the least. Hoopdata.com tells us that among the 22 power forwards averaging 30 or more minutes per game, Blatche wields the worst true shooting percentage (48.5). His rebounding rate (13.2 percent) is merely average for his position. It's a dubious contract for an equally dubious prospect.

It's clear that the Washington franchise is still under construction. Super-athletic youngster http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3452/javale-mcgeeJaVale McGee and Wall represent the building blocks for the organization. And although it's unlikely, they could win the lottery again, which would go a long way to the team regaining respect. But right now, it's hard to envision a return to the playoffs before the 2013-14 season.

 

[GaBeGRaMz]

Really ? Still ?

 

[GaBeGRaMz]

Really ? Still ?

 

[proshares]

Rookie report, a very good analysis IMO of Cousins and his game.

The next time you watch DeMarcus Cousins play, try analyzing him using just one word at a time. It's an exercise I do when evaluating players. Here's what I came up with when I watched him in person last Wednesday against Orlando: gigantic, lazy, gifted, infantile, physical, unafraid, vision, anticipation, lost, clueless, different, agile. My guess is you would come up with similar words after observing him.

Unlike many big men who enter the league, Cousins is already loaded with an NBA body and game. His talent jumps off the tape, stat sheets and court. Unfortunately, so do his flaws, especially the problem "between the ears." Every player I've spoken to this season told me Cousins has the worst body language and facial expressions of any NBA player they've ever seen. And I was able to see many of the same things when I watched him up close.

So the question is: Can he fix his faults so he can become a real star in this league, or will he be held back by his immaturity issues?

Let's look at three areas he and the Kings must address.
[h3]1. Mindset[/h3]
Want to know what Cousins was thinking about before facing the world's best center, Dwight Howard? Here was the scene close to two hours before tipoff in Orlando:

Orlando's Jameer Nelson and Earl Clark were on one side of the court, with Sacramento's Cousins and Beno Udrih on the other. And at center court was a group of middle-school age drummers and other marching band members, who were practicing their halftime performance.

Three players were working and sweating through their pregame shots, completely focused on making each shot and showing no signs that they were aware of who was at half court or what hip-hop music was being played in the arena. One player, however, was dancing here and there to the beats.

[h4]ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS[/h4]

We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.

1	Blake Griffin
2	Greg Monroe
3	John Wall
4	DeMarcus Cousins
5	Landry Fields
6	Ed Davis
7	Wesley Johnson
8	Paul George
9	Gary Neal
10	Omer Asik

[h2][/h2] [th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Stock[/th]

• Click here for the complete rankings »







Cousins.

He was doing the customary spot shooting drill, where a player has to make 10 shots from one spot before moving to the next spot. But when the drummers started in, Cousins immediately looked in their direction and began dancing -- not wildly or comedically, but still dancing. After a few seconds, he resumed his shooting, but he would frequently break back into a quick dance motion between shots. At one time he even paused his entire routine just to watch.

Why is this such a problem?

First, let's be clear -- he isn't the only guy who dances before games. However, the veterans who do are able to have fun at no expense to their overall production. This may one day be the case for Cousins, but that day is far away.

Consider that the whole point of spot shooting is to help groove shot mechanics, and Cousins got nothing done from that perspective because he was far more focused on the music than on his shot. Consequently, during his routine, his mechanics changed dramatically every few shots. He does not have a repeatable stroke yet. I was not at all surprised that he badly missed some of his open jumpers during the game, despite the fact that he does have some talent as a shooter. In many ways, this describes the biggest part of Cousins' problems: He is not locked in as a pro.

Most good players like Ray Allen and Shane Battier have a very rigid pregame routine, which starts the morning of the game and runs all the way to tipoff. These routines vary from pro to pro, but they are well-planned and scripted.

Cousins would greatly benefit from doing likewise (we'll get into this more later). He is the Kings' best talent, in my opinion, but he's not good enough to walk through his pregame work and still expect to single-handedly beat a good team.

Last Wednesday, I would have liked to see Cousins focused on making 10 shots consecutively from each spot, rather than just shooting because that's what he's supposed to do in pregame. Then he could have worked on shot-fake attack moves (imagining Howard guarding him) or strong post-ups.

By all accounts, Cousins is a very nice person who wants to do the right thing. But right now he often acts as if he's still in high school, unaware that somebody is paying him millions of dollars as part of a big business.

His pouting and scowling are also issues. He reacts more demonstrably, and more often, than any player I've seen other than Rasheed Wallace. But Wallace proved he was able to play at a high level despite his antics, even though he'd be on my personal list of the "top five underachievers of the past 15 years."

It's naive to expect similar results from Cousins, who needs consistent doses of teaching right now. The other night displayed an example of this:

Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty ImagesDeMarcus Cousins' body language is wearing on those around him.

With over 10 minutes to play in the third quarter in a tie game, Cousins was defending Howard and reached around the Orlando center as he tried to catch a pass about 16 feet away from the basket in the pinch-post area; Cousins committed his fourth foul -- an obvious call to all who were watching -- and reacted in his usual petulant manner. As he walked to the bench after being subbed out, Westphal twice said, "It was a cheap call," without ever looking at Cousins, who also did not look at his coach.

What Cousins needed was his coach looking him in the eye and saying, "I don't care if you have no fouls in a game. We never want you risking a foul on Dwight Howard 16 feet from the basket, unless you have a clear path to the line of the ball."

It's certainly possible that Westphal has given Cousins that speech 1,000 times this season and is just sick of saying the same thing (Cousins leads the league in fouls per game), but you never know when the light will click on. As the saying goes, "A teacher's work is never done."

By telling him the call was "cheap," Westphal was just playing into Cousins' belief that the league and media have targeted him unfairly. Getting Cousins to take total ownership of his mistakes, however, is a big part of the overall solution. And after watching him play as much as I have this season, I believe the young man wants to hear the truth, even if it's harsh.

In the meantime, Cousins' amateur mindset continues to wear on his teammates and coaches. Westphal and Co. are visibly frustrated with some of his antics, and Cousins is sapping energy from the team.

But if Cousins were to show more focus and dedication, that would allow his teammates to focus more on their jobs and less on managing him. And that would translate into more opportunities to win for a franchise trying to save itself from relocation.

---

[h3]2. Body[/h3]
Something that can't be missed when watching Cousins play is how rarely he races, or even runs, the floor. His favorite speed is jog, with walking or just standing mixed in, too. The Magic scored a good amount of points in transition or early offense because Cousins either didn't get back at all or ran back only after jogging and realizing he was needed. Too late. He stands around too often in the half court as well, watching instead of doing.

This happens for two reasons, the first being habit. Relatively fast and lean in high school, he got bigger and heavier in college and, as a result, running became more difficult. But jogging up the floor as John Wall blazed to the rim was no big deal. And neither was not getting back on defense. Sure, it would get Coach Calipari mad, but benching him for long stretches made little sense. So Cousins has gotten used to playing that way.

Secondly, Cousins needs to tighten his body up more. He looks much better than he did in July, so he knows how to do it. But if he can take another 10-20 pounds off, then maybe add 5-8 pounds of muscle, his conditioning will be much improved. And once he's lighter, he can start building better habits again. A faster, lighter, more conditioned DeMarcus Cousins presents a nightmare matchup for most opposing centers in the league.

One more thing to consider: All young players have poor eating habits. Too much sugar, too few healthy foods and an overall diet that swings from bad types of food to inconsistent eating times. Getting Cousins on a better eating plan, with an understanding of how to cook and eat healthy, would pay big dividends. Not only would he get in better shape, but studies have shown that a better diet could even help with his overall mood swings.

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[h3]3. Plan[/h3]
When Cousins plays, it's exactly that -- he plays. I'm not knocking him. Derrick Rose still plays far more than he thinks and reads the game, and he has developed into one of the game's best players. But Rose also has priorities built into his play -- rim attacks, drawing doubles to create shots for teammates, dragging bigs down to the baseline when they "down" him on ball screens to open up his big for an elbow jumper. There is a plan, without doubt.

Cousins needs to have a specific plan on how to best utilize his strengths against his opponents each night. Item No. 1 should be: "Be the biggest beast in the paint on every possession."

http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6174319&story=6154594">http://sports.espn.go.com...174319&...idth=440,height=750,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=Rookies-110302#">[+] Enlarge

Fernando Medina/NBAE/Getty ImagesThe sky's the limit for Cousins ... if he makes a living in the paint.

If Cousins looked to dominate everyone he faced inside -- something he's more than capable of doing right now against at least half the league -- then he wouldn't be hanging out 16-plus feet from the basket. Right now, he takes far too many long 2s (more than three per game while making only one a game) and is tied for 41st in the league in offensive rebound rate, behind guys like Greg Monroe, Ryan Anderson and Kwame Brown. That is unacceptable. Having a plan can change that.

Post players also need a plan when they have the ball in the block area. The great ones dictate the action by setting their man up for their go-to move, then countering it when needed. For Cousins, he's all butt, arms, quick feet and natural talent, but very little thought. We can't fault him for that -- few bigs his age have a plan, and quite frankly he's already better than a lot of NBA centers as a back-to-the-basket player.

But because he's agile, there are players he could face up inside and beat off his first step. He doesn't have to back everybody down. Knowing the opposing teams and who his likely defenders will be should become a part of his game-day routine. This will help him decide early on whether he will back down or face up certain guys. And he could practice these moves in the post, while imagining each potential defender. In pregame.

Cousins can plan his individual defensive efforts, too. Remember, this is a guy who is not afraid of contact on either end. On the first defensive post-up versus Howard, Cousins got popped in the face by Howard's hand but had no negative reaction and stayed focused. It shows Cousins can play with reason and discipline, so his silly fouls can mostly be avoided if he thinks these plays through.

Will he sometimes foul by fighting for position or contesting a paint shot? Of course, that goes with the territory. But if he were to study every foul he's committed thus far, and sat down with a written plan on how to avoid these plays going forward, his fouls per game would likely diminish by 25 percent.

As I took in the matchup of Howard versus Cousins, one thought kept creeping into my head. Either Cousins will be a coach killer, the guy who puts up huge numbers because of his immense talent but drives his coach crazy by not competing consistently. Or the Howard-Cousins matchup is one we can look forward to on a far bigger stage one day. In the All-Star Game. Maybe even by 2013. That's how good (or bad) Cousins can be.

So it's up to him, his teammates and his organization to help lift him into stardom. Otherwise, he'll likely be the guy dragging them to a darker place than they were in before they drafted him.

He is a special talent, and let's hope for his sake as well as his franchise's that he learns to walk the path to greatness. The NBA is a better league with him in it, but only if he learns that being a pro because he's getting paid is not the same as acting like one every day.

---

[h3]This week's rookie updates[/h3]

Wesley Johnson, Timberwolves -- March 2: Since the Wolves traded Corey Brewer, Johnson has been more aggressive and successful on offense. He's scored 20 or more points in two of the Wolves' past three games, a first for him this season. … more »

Ekpe Udoh, Warriors -- March 2: He's not doing much on offense, but Udoh is becoming a force in the paint. He's blocked at least one shot in his past six games and he has two or more blocks in five games since the beginning of February. … more »

Landry Fields, Knicks -- March 2: With Melo arriving, Fields will likely see his plummeting scoring numbers drop even further. He had only 10 or more points four times in February, with 11 being his scoring high since the trade. But Fields is … more »

Zabian Dowdell, Suns -- March 1: Dowdell played in only one of the Suns' past five games, but he made the most of that opportunity, making all three of his shots and finishing with eight points and five assists in 18 minutes. He's a very steady … more »

Ben Uzoh, Nets -- March 1: Uzoh looked terrific in the Nets' blowout loss to Houston. Not just because he scored 18 points on 6-for-8 shooting, but his activity overall. He competed hard and used his big body to make physical plays. … more »

Derrick Favors, Jazz -- March 1: He may be in a different city and playing in a different system, but Favors has handled the trade to Utah well. He's still finishing shots inside and playing with energy. Being the guy acquired for D-Will will … more »

Paul George, Pacers -- Feb. 28: George did not finish February with a bang -- he got more minutes than he had in any previous month, but he did not take full advantage of it. George averaged 8.9 ppg this past month on 41 percent shooting … more »

Evan Turner, 76ers -- Feb. 28: The success of the team is helping to mask his overall lack of production as the No. 2 pick. But he is becoming a difference-maker as a midrange shooter and with his excellent overall game. He knows where … more »

Omer Asik, Bulls -- Feb. 28: The more I watch Asik play the more I understand why the Bulls wouldn't move him at the trade deadline. He is already a very good defender inside and out and has a chance to be great on this side of the floor. … more »

Jeremy Lin, Warriors -- Feb. 28: He's still not showing an NBA offensive game, but even in the few minutes he gets each game, he's making defensive plays that scream "NBA player." He is quick and tough on defense and has a nose for the ball. … more »

 

[CP1708]

I'm plenty humble when needed, when people are goin at me, then I'll fight back, as anybody would.  Hell, if people never brought us up, I would never speak LA in this thread at all.  I only do it when we are the topic of the moment and people are speakin on somethin.   Something I wish you would learn. 

Knicks being "back" don't mean they are hoisting trophies anytime soon.  It means they are "back" to being relevant in the NBA again.  Games at MSG matter.  Rivalries with the Bulls, or Celtics, or Heat matter, there's a nostalgia to them and the teams they play.  New york is a great sports city, anybody who don't know that is beyond lame.  Yankees, Mets, Rangers, Jets, Giants, Knicks, they are passionate about their fans.  So when the Knicks play well, and get on national tv and resume the old rivalries, the NBA as a whole benefits. 

Millions of people grew up watching the Knicks battle other teams for decades.  Think NBA on NBC Sundays, things like that. 

No one, and I do mean NO ONE, grew up watching or clamoring for the Spurs to play somebody.  As good as they have been the past 10 years, their rivalries don't transcend the game.  Not even slightly.  Spurs/Suns, Spurs/Mavs, Spurs/Lakers, all good series, all good games and history, none of them are up there with Knicks/Bulls, Lakers/Celtics, Celtics/Knicks, etc etc. 

 

[CP1708]

I'm plenty humble when needed, when people are goin at me, then I'll fight back, as anybody would.  Hell, if people never brought us up, I would never speak LA in this thread at all.  I only do it when we are the topic of the moment and people are speakin on somethin.   Something I wish you would learn. 

Knicks being "back" don't mean they are hoisting trophies anytime soon.  It means they are "back" to being relevant in the NBA again.  Games at MSG matter.  Rivalries with the Bulls, or Celtics, or Heat matter, there's a nostalgia to them and the teams they play.  New york is a great sports city, anybody who don't know that is beyond lame.  Yankees, Mets, Rangers, Jets, Giants, Knicks, they are passionate about their fans.  So when the Knicks play well, and get on national tv and resume the old rivalries, the NBA as a whole benefits. 

Millions of people grew up watching the Knicks battle other teams for decades.  Think NBA on NBC Sundays, things like that. 

No one, and I do mean NO ONE, grew up watching or clamoring for the Spurs to play somebody.  As good as they have been the past 10 years, their rivalries don't transcend the game.  Not even slightly.  Spurs/Suns, Spurs/Mavs, Spurs/Lakers, all good series, all good games and history, none of them are up there with Knicks/Bulls, Lakers/Celtics, Celtics/Knicks, etc etc. 

 

[proshares]

Rookie report, a very good analysis IMO of Cousins and his game.

The next time you watch DeMarcus Cousins play, try analyzing him using just one word at a time. It's an exercise I do when evaluating players. Here's what I came up with when I watched him in person last Wednesday against Orlando: gigantic, lazy, gifted, infantile, physical, unafraid, vision, anticipation, lost, clueless, different, agile. My guess is you would come up with similar words after observing him.

Unlike many big men who enter the league, Cousins is already loaded with an NBA body and game. His talent jumps off the tape, stat sheets and court. Unfortunately, so do his flaws, especially the problem "between the ears." Every player I've spoken to this season told me Cousins has the worst body language and facial expressions of any NBA player they've ever seen. And I was able to see many of the same things when I watched him up close.

So the question is: Can he fix his faults so he can become a real star in this league, or will he be held back by his immaturity issues?

Let's look at three areas he and the Kings must address.
[h3]1. Mindset[/h3]
Want to know what Cousins was thinking about before facing the world's best center, Dwight Howard? Here was the scene close to two hours before tipoff in Orlando:

Orlando's Jameer Nelson and Earl Clark were on one side of the court, with Sacramento's Cousins and Beno Udrih on the other. And at center court was a group of middle-school age drummers and other marching band members, who were practicing their halftime performance.

Three players were working and sweating through their pregame shots, completely focused on making each shot and showing no signs that they were aware of who was at half court or what hip-hop music was being played in the arena. One player, however, was dancing here and there to the beats.

[h4]ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS[/h4]

We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.

1	Blake Griffin
2	Greg Monroe
3	John Wall
4	DeMarcus Cousins
5	Landry Fields
6	Ed Davis
7	Wesley Johnson
8	Paul George
9	Gary Neal
10	Omer Asik

[h2][/h2] [th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Stock[/th]

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Cousins.

He was doing the customary spot shooting drill, where a player has to make 10 shots from one spot before moving to the next spot. But when the drummers started in, Cousins immediately looked in their direction and began dancing -- not wildly or comedically, but still dancing. After a few seconds, he resumed his shooting, but he would frequently break back into a quick dance motion between shots. At one time he even paused his entire routine just to watch.

Why is this such a problem?

First, let's be clear -- he isn't the only guy who dances before games. However, the veterans who do are able to have fun at no expense to their overall production. This may one day be the case for Cousins, but that day is far away.

Consider that the whole point of spot shooting is to help groove shot mechanics, and Cousins got nothing done from that perspective because he was far more focused on the music than on his shot. Consequently, during his routine, his mechanics changed dramatically every few shots. He does not have a repeatable stroke yet. I was not at all surprised that he badly missed some of his open jumpers during the game, despite the fact that he does have some talent as a shooter. In many ways, this describes the biggest part of Cousins' problems: He is not locked in as a pro.

Most good players like Ray Allen and Shane Battier have a very rigid pregame routine, which starts the morning of the game and runs all the way to tipoff. These routines vary from pro to pro, but they are well-planned and scripted.

Cousins would greatly benefit from doing likewise (we'll get into this more later). He is the Kings' best talent, in my opinion, but he's not good enough to walk through his pregame work and still expect to single-handedly beat a good team.

Last Wednesday, I would have liked to see Cousins focused on making 10 shots consecutively from each spot, rather than just shooting because that's what he's supposed to do in pregame. Then he could have worked on shot-fake attack moves (imagining Howard guarding him) or strong post-ups.

By all accounts, Cousins is a very nice person who wants to do the right thing. But right now he often acts as if he's still in high school, unaware that somebody is paying him millions of dollars as part of a big business.

His pouting and scowling are also issues. He reacts more demonstrably, and more often, than any player I've seen other than Rasheed Wallace. But Wallace proved he was able to play at a high level despite his antics, even though he'd be on my personal list of the "top five underachievers of the past 15 years."

It's naive to expect similar results from Cousins, who needs consistent doses of teaching right now. The other night displayed an example of this:

Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty ImagesDeMarcus Cousins' body language is wearing on those around him.

With over 10 minutes to play in the third quarter in a tie game, Cousins was defending Howard and reached around the Orlando center as he tried to catch a pass about 16 feet away from the basket in the pinch-post area; Cousins committed his fourth foul -- an obvious call to all who were watching -- and reacted in his usual petulant manner. As he walked to the bench after being subbed out, Westphal twice said, "It was a cheap call," without ever looking at Cousins, who also did not look at his coach.

What Cousins needed was his coach looking him in the eye and saying, "I don't care if you have no fouls in a game. We never want you risking a foul on Dwight Howard 16 feet from the basket, unless you have a clear path to the line of the ball."

It's certainly possible that Westphal has given Cousins that speech 1,000 times this season and is just sick of saying the same thing (Cousins leads the league in fouls per game), but you never know when the light will click on. As the saying goes, "A teacher's work is never done."

By telling him the call was "cheap," Westphal was just playing into Cousins' belief that the league and media have targeted him unfairly. Getting Cousins to take total ownership of his mistakes, however, is a big part of the overall solution. And after watching him play as much as I have this season, I believe the young man wants to hear the truth, even if it's harsh.

In the meantime, Cousins' amateur mindset continues to wear on his teammates and coaches. Westphal and Co. are visibly frustrated with some of his antics, and Cousins is sapping energy from the team.

But if Cousins were to show more focus and dedication, that would allow his teammates to focus more on their jobs and less on managing him. And that would translate into more opportunities to win for a franchise trying to save itself from relocation.

---

[h3]2. Body[/h3]
Something that can't be missed when watching Cousins play is how rarely he races, or even runs, the floor. His favorite speed is jog, with walking or just standing mixed in, too. The Magic scored a good amount of points in transition or early offense because Cousins either didn't get back at all or ran back only after jogging and realizing he was needed. Too late. He stands around too often in the half court as well, watching instead of doing.

This happens for two reasons, the first being habit. Relatively fast and lean in high school, he got bigger and heavier in college and, as a result, running became more difficult. But jogging up the floor as John Wall blazed to the rim was no big deal. And neither was not getting back on defense. Sure, it would get Coach Calipari mad, but benching him for long stretches made little sense. So Cousins has gotten used to playing that way.

Secondly, Cousins needs to tighten his body up more. He looks much better than he did in July, so he knows how to do it. But if he can take another 10-20 pounds off, then maybe add 5-8 pounds of muscle, his conditioning will be much improved. And once he's lighter, he can start building better habits again. A faster, lighter, more conditioned DeMarcus Cousins presents a nightmare matchup for most opposing centers in the league.

One more thing to consider: All young players have poor eating habits. Too much sugar, too few healthy foods and an overall diet that swings from bad types of food to inconsistent eating times. Getting Cousins on a better eating plan, with an understanding of how to cook and eat healthy, would pay big dividends. Not only would he get in better shape, but studies have shown that a better diet could even help with his overall mood swings.

---

[h3]3. Plan[/h3]
When Cousins plays, it's exactly that -- he plays. I'm not knocking him. Derrick Rose still plays far more than he thinks and reads the game, and he has developed into one of the game's best players. But Rose also has priorities built into his play -- rim attacks, drawing doubles to create shots for teammates, dragging bigs down to the baseline when they "down" him on ball screens to open up his big for an elbow jumper. There is a plan, without doubt.

Cousins needs to have a specific plan on how to best utilize his strengths against his opponents each night. Item No. 1 should be: "Be the biggest beast in the paint on every possession."

http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6174319&story=6154594">http://sports.espn.go.com...174319&...idth=440,height=750,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=Rookies-110302#">[+] Enlarge

Fernando Medina/NBAE/Getty ImagesThe sky's the limit for Cousins ... if he makes a living in the paint.

If Cousins looked to dominate everyone he faced inside -- something he's more than capable of doing right now against at least half the league -- then he wouldn't be hanging out 16-plus feet from the basket. Right now, he takes far too many long 2s (more than three per game while making only one a game) and is tied for 41st in the league in offensive rebound rate, behind guys like Greg Monroe, Ryan Anderson and Kwame Brown. That is unacceptable. Having a plan can change that.

Post players also need a plan when they have the ball in the block area. The great ones dictate the action by setting their man up for their go-to move, then countering it when needed. For Cousins, he's all butt, arms, quick feet and natural talent, but very little thought. We can't fault him for that -- few bigs his age have a plan, and quite frankly he's already better than a lot of NBA centers as a back-to-the-basket player.

But because he's agile, there are players he could face up inside and beat off his first step. He doesn't have to back everybody down. Knowing the opposing teams and who his likely defenders will be should become a part of his game-day routine. This will help him decide early on whether he will back down or face up certain guys. And he could practice these moves in the post, while imagining each potential defender. In pregame.

Cousins can plan his individual defensive efforts, too. Remember, this is a guy who is not afraid of contact on either end. On the first defensive post-up versus Howard, Cousins got popped in the face by Howard's hand but had no negative reaction and stayed focused. It shows Cousins can play with reason and discipline, so his silly fouls can mostly be avoided if he thinks these plays through.

Will he sometimes foul by fighting for position or contesting a paint shot? Of course, that goes with the territory. But if he were to study every foul he's committed thus far, and sat down with a written plan on how to avoid these plays going forward, his fouls per game would likely diminish by 25 percent.

As I took in the matchup of Howard versus Cousins, one thought kept creeping into my head. Either Cousins will be a coach killer, the guy who puts up huge numbers because of his immense talent but drives his coach crazy by not competing consistently. Or the Howard-Cousins matchup is one we can look forward to on a far bigger stage one day. In the All-Star Game. Maybe even by 2013. That's how good (or bad) Cousins can be.

So it's up to him, his teammates and his organization to help lift him into stardom. Otherwise, he'll likely be the guy dragging them to a darker place than they were in before they drafted him.

He is a special talent, and let's hope for his sake as well as his franchise's that he learns to walk the path to greatness. The NBA is a better league with him in it, but only if he learns that being a pro because he's getting paid is not the same as acting like one every day.

---

[h3]This week's rookie updates[/h3]

Wesley Johnson, Timberwolves -- March 2: Since the Wolves traded Corey Brewer, Johnson has been more aggressive and successful on offense. He's scored 20 or more points in two of the Wolves' past three games, a first for him this season. … more »

Ekpe Udoh, Warriors -- March 2: He's not doing much on offense, but Udoh is becoming a force in the paint. He's blocked at least one shot in his past six games and he has two or more blocks in five games since the beginning of February. … more »

Landry Fields, Knicks -- March 2: With Melo arriving, Fields will likely see his plummeting scoring numbers drop even further. He had only 10 or more points four times in February, with 11 being his scoring high since the trade. But Fields is … more »

Zabian Dowdell, Suns -- March 1: Dowdell played in only one of the Suns' past five games, but he made the most of that opportunity, making all three of his shots and finishing with eight points and five assists in 18 minutes. He's a very steady … more »

Ben Uzoh, Nets -- March 1: Uzoh looked terrific in the Nets' blowout loss to Houston. Not just because he scored 18 points on 6-for-8 shooting, but his activity overall. He competed hard and used his big body to make physical plays. … more »

Derrick Favors, Jazz -- March 1: He may be in a different city and playing in a different system, but Favors has handled the trade to Utah well. He's still finishing shots inside and playing with energy. Being the guy acquired for D-Will will … more »

Paul George, Pacers -- Feb. 28: George did not finish February with a bang -- he got more minutes than he had in any previous month, but he did not take full advantage of it. George averaged 8.9 ppg this past month on 41 percent shooting … more »

Evan Turner, 76ers -- Feb. 28: The success of the team is helping to mask his overall lack of production as the No. 2 pick. But he is becoming a difference-maker as a midrange shooter and with his excellent overall game. He knows where … more »

Omer Asik, Bulls -- Feb. 28: The more I watch Asik play the more I understand why the Bulls wouldn't move him at the trade deadline. He is already a very good defender inside and out and has a chance to be great on this side of the floor. … more »

Jeremy Lin, Warriors -- Feb. 28: He's still not showing an NBA offensive game, but even in the few minutes he gets each game, he's making defensive plays that scream "NBA player." He is quick and tough on defense and has a nose for the ball. … more »

 

[japanair21]

Find me one post where you've been humble.

Humble my !$*.

 

[japanair21]

Find me one post where you've been humble.

Humble my !$*.

 

[do be doo]

Originally Posted by GaBeGRaMz

Really ? Still ?

Word. Dub needs to chill.

CP thanks for taking the time to explain.

 

[do be doo]

Originally Posted by GaBeGRaMz

Really ? Still ?

Word. Dub needs to chill.

CP thanks for taking the time to explain.

 

[severn]

Knicks/Bulls 1992. 1993 playoffs great games.

 

[severn]

Knicks/Bulls 1992. 1993 playoffs great games.

 

[GaBeGRaMz]

Originally Posted by CP1708

I'm plenty humble when needed, when people are goin at me, then I'll fight back, as anybody would.  Hell, if people never brought us up, I would never speak LA in this thread at all.  I only do it when we are the topic of the moment and people are speakin on somethin.   Something I wish you would learn. 

Knicks being "back" don't mean they are hoisting trophies anytime soon.  It means they are "back" to being relevant in the NBA again.  Games at MSG matter.  Rivalries with the Bulls, or Celtics, or Heat matter, there's a nostalgia to them and the teams they play.  New york is a great sports city, anybody who don't know that is beyond lame.  Yankees, Mets, Rangers, Jets, Giants, Knicks, they are passionate about their fans.  So when the Knicks play well, and get on national tv and resume the old rivalries, the NBA as a whole benefits. 

Millions of people grew up watching the Knicks battle other teams for decades.  Think NBA on NBC Sundays, things like that. 

No one, and I do mean NO ONE, grew up watching or clamoring for the Spurs to play somebody.  As good as they have been the past 10 years, their rivalries don't transcend the game.  Not even slightly.  Spurs/Suns, Spurs/Mavs, Spurs/Lakers, all good series, all good games and history, none of them are up there with Knicks/Bulls, Lakers/Celtics, Celtics/Knicks, etc etc. 

 

[GaBeGRaMz]

Originally Posted by CP1708

I'm plenty humble when needed, when people are goin at me, then I'll fight back, as anybody would.  Hell, if people never brought us up, I would never speak LA in this thread at all.  I only do it when we are the topic of the moment and people are speakin on somethin.   Something I wish you would learn. 

Knicks being "back" don't mean they are hoisting trophies anytime soon.  It means they are "back" to being relevant in the NBA again.  Games at MSG matter.  Rivalries with the Bulls, or Celtics, or Heat matter, there's a nostalgia to them and the teams they play.  New york is a great sports city, anybody who don't know that is beyond lame.  Yankees, Mets, Rangers, Jets, Giants, Knicks, they are passionate about their fans.  So when the Knicks play well, and get on national tv and resume the old rivalries, the NBA as a whole benefits. 

Millions of people grew up watching the Knicks battle other teams for decades.  Think NBA on NBC Sundays, things like that. 

No one, and I do mean NO ONE, grew up watching or clamoring for the Spurs to play somebody.  As good as they have been the past 10 years, their rivalries don't transcend the game.  Not even slightly.  Spurs/Suns, Spurs/Mavs, Spurs/Lakers, all good series, all good games and history, none of them are up there with Knicks/Bulls, Lakers/Celtics, Celtics/Knicks, etc etc. 

 

[duba169]

seriously it's pretty simple. knicks are back to being relevant and competitive. nothing more, nothing less.

 

[duba169]

seriously it's pretty simple. knicks are back to being relevant and competitive. nothing more, nothing less.

 

[|A-Man|]

The Knicks being back have been explained a couple of times to dude. In a few days he'll start trolling again claiming he doesn't understand how they're "back". Sad if he really couldn't figure it out on his own though.

 

[|A-Man|]

The Knicks being back have been explained a couple of times to dude. In a few days he'll start trolling again claiming he doesn't understand how they're "back". Sad if he really couldn't figure it out on his own though.

 

[proshares]

Ask pundits where the NBA championship will end up this year, and you'll hear a variety of answers. Ask the same gang where the title will NOT end up, however, and you'll get a pretty consistent answer: Florida.

This stands in stark contrast to our playoff odds, which see a 1-in-4 chance of the Larry O'Brien trophy landing in the Sunshine State this season. Yet despite their accomplishments -- Miami is 43-17 and has the league's best scoring margin, while Orlando is 39-22 with nearly as dominant a margin -- the two Florida teams have had an unusual amount of difficulty getting people to believe they're for real.

Thus, today's big question: Are they for real?

Ironically, the same things hurt both teams in their pursuit of ForRealness. For starters, there's history. Miami's lack of it with this group means the huddled masses can't point to their experience, nor to past results with the same core. Orlando's recent history, meanwhile, includes a not-as-close-as-it-looked six-game defeat to Boston in last season's conference finals, when the Magic arguably had a stronger team than this one.

Second, there's the convenient shorthand of the Big Game. Both Miami and Orlando have played poorly in the spotlight, national TV games that everybody watches. The Heat, as we've heard almost constantly throughout the season, are just 3-8 against the league's seven other top teams, and two of those wins came against the equally lightly regarded Magic. The flow of those games, particularly the three against Boston, also hurt Miami -- in each Miami trailed badly before a near-comeback at the end; the fact Boston led each game wire-to-wire resonates with a lot of people.

Orlando's track record against the elite is better than Miami's at 5-7, but its timing has been terrible. The Magic's best performance -- a 107-78 win over the Bulls in Chicago, with the Bulls playing both Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer -- was immediately obliterated in the news cycle by LeBron's return to Cleveland the next night. In the marquee Thursday games, they've lost to Portland, Oklahoma City and Miami; in contrast, their two biggest wins on national TV came on Dec. 23 and Dec. 25, when folks were distracted by the holidays.

I'll give you two other reasons the Heat and Magic are frowned upon as contenders. The first is confirmation bias. When Orlando loses at home to Sacramento, it's a sign they can't be taken seriously as a contender. When the Lakers are blown out at home by the Bucks? Not the same reaction.

Similarly, many take the Heat's 3-8 record against elite teams as further proof that they lack championship mettle -- an easy case to argue since Wade is the only one of the group with a ring. The Lakers' 2-7 mark against the same teams, meanwhile, has received comparatively little scrutiny. (At least, for the Lakers. Everything that happens with the Lakers gets at least some scrutiny.)

[h4]Record Against Top Seven Teams[/h4]

Chicago	8	4
Boston	8	4
San Antonio	6	4
Dallas	7	5
Orlando	5	7
Miami	3	8
Los Angeles	2	7

[th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Wins[/th][th=""]Losses[/th]

Additionally, there are big weaknesses one can point to, much more easily than those of Boston or San Antonio. The Heat have no center and until yesterday had no point guard; defensively, they're extremely vulnerable at both positions. Orlando, meanwhile, basically has one good defensive player and no perimeter weapons who can reliably create shots against quality defenses -- the bugaboo that bit them in the playoff loss to Boston a year ago.

But here's the thing: None of that matters. Not one iota. Look for indicators of playoff success, and the items that stand out are regular-season scoring margin, star talent and quality of play heading into the postseason. (I know that last one didn't hold up a year ago, but historically it's rock-solid.)

Performance in spotlight TV Games? A total non-factor.

Won-loss record against elite teams? Meaningless, believe it or not.

Record in close games? Ditto.

Here are the factors that actually matter for the postseason:

1. Miami and Orlando have the three best players in the league. Despite their weaknesses, both teams offset the flaws with strengths no other side can match. Miami's combination of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade is unmatchable. They're the two best perimeter players in the game, and the fact an opponent must account for both stretches most defenses to the limit. Witness the Celtics' acquisition of Jeff Green just to add another perimeter defender, a move that seemed to be made with guarding James and Wade top of mind.

Orlando, meanwhile, has Howard, a wild card because of his ability to overwhelm defenses that lack a huge, physical center. With Howard having refined his post game this season and making a real run at James for the league's PER crown, he's providing a much more broad-based offensive threat to build the Magic attack around. Combine that with noted Howard stopper Kendrick Perkins' departure to the Western Conference, and Orlando has to like its odds in the playoffs.

The reason this matters in the playoffs is a simple one: You can play your stars more minutes in the postseason, given the high stakes and increased time off between games, and thus use the weaker bench players less. If Howard can play 46 minutes a game it doesn't matter if the Magic don't have a backup center, and if James and Wade are on the floor for 45 apiece the Heat's bench shortcomings are similarly masked.

They've won in the playoffs before. James, Wade and Howard account for three of the past five Eastern Conference championships. We're really saying they can't be factors? While Boston has the trump card of knocking off all three in succession in last season's playoffs, the Celtics couldn't get past Orlando the year before and barely beat a much weaker LeBron-led Cleveland team in the second round in their 2008 title run.

Orlando, in particular, has seen its playoff success dismissed far too often. Only one team has won more series over the past two years -- the Lakers, obviously. Orlando has won five playoff rounds in the past two seasons, which is one more than Boston, not to mention four more than San Antonio or Dallas, and five more than Chicago or Miami.

Scoring margin. The best predictor of future success is scoring margin. Miami's plus-7.6 mark is tops in the league, and Orlando's plus-6.0 is within a point of all the other contenders getting much more ink. Both those marks look even better if you consider recent play, which as I mentioned above is another major factor in playoff success. The Heat are 34-9 since a wobbly first month and haven't lost by more than six points in a game James played in since Nov. 27. The Magic, meanwhile, have 10 double-digit wins in their last 19 outings. Take that in for a second -- they'd be 10-9 in their last 19 even if they spotted the other team 10 points.

In summary, none of this means the Magic or Heat are necessarily destined to win the title. Some of the weaknesses enumerated above may eventually come back to bite them -- in particular, I don't like how Miami's offense matches up against Boston's defensive style, and any team that can put fouls on Howard has a great shot of beating Orlando.

Nonetheless, I think their odds are at least as good as anyone else's, including Boston and L.A. We'll get another national TV test tonight when the Florida teams play each other, and we can be sure that the loser will find itself immediately dismissed nationally. It could be a recurring theme in the Heat's case -- Miami plays 10 straight games against winning teams before a final lap through the league's doormats in April.

Somehow, however, the idea that both teams are fatally flawed has gained tremendous traction. Between the inability of the teams' history to provide a counterargument, the lure of overreacting to national TV games, and the failure to understand that records in close games and records against good teams are both meaningless predictors of playoff success, the two Florida teams are held in far less regard than they should be. Come May, that position may need reconsidering.

 

[proshares]

Ask pundits where the NBA championship will end up this year, and you'll hear a variety of answers. Ask the same gang where the title will NOT end up, however, and you'll get a pretty consistent answer: Florida.

This stands in stark contrast to our playoff odds, which see a 1-in-4 chance of the Larry O'Brien trophy landing in the Sunshine State this season. Yet despite their accomplishments -- Miami is 43-17 and has the league's best scoring margin, while Orlando is 39-22 with nearly as dominant a margin -- the two Florida teams have had an unusual amount of difficulty getting people to believe they're for real.

Thus, today's big question: Are they for real?

Ironically, the same things hurt both teams in their pursuit of ForRealness. For starters, there's history. Miami's lack of it with this group means the huddled masses can't point to their experience, nor to past results with the same core. Orlando's recent history, meanwhile, includes a not-as-close-as-it-looked six-game defeat to Boston in last season's conference finals, when the Magic arguably had a stronger team than this one.

Second, there's the convenient shorthand of the Big Game. Both Miami and Orlando have played poorly in the spotlight, national TV games that everybody watches. The Heat, as we've heard almost constantly throughout the season, are just 3-8 against the league's seven other top teams, and two of those wins came against the equally lightly regarded Magic. The flow of those games, particularly the three against Boston, also hurt Miami -- in each Miami trailed badly before a near-comeback at the end; the fact Boston led each game wire-to-wire resonates with a lot of people.

Orlando's track record against the elite is better than Miami's at 5-7, but its timing has been terrible. The Magic's best performance -- a 107-78 win over the Bulls in Chicago, with the Bulls playing both Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer -- was immediately obliterated in the news cycle by LeBron's return to Cleveland the next night. In the marquee Thursday games, they've lost to Portland, Oklahoma City and Miami; in contrast, their two biggest wins on national TV came on Dec. 23 and Dec. 25, when folks were distracted by the holidays.

I'll give you two other reasons the Heat and Magic are frowned upon as contenders. The first is confirmation bias. When Orlando loses at home to Sacramento, it's a sign they can't be taken seriously as a contender. When the Lakers are blown out at home by the Bucks? Not the same reaction.

Similarly, many take the Heat's 3-8 record against elite teams as further proof that they lack championship mettle -- an easy case to argue since Wade is the only one of the group with a ring. The Lakers' 2-7 mark against the same teams, meanwhile, has received comparatively little scrutiny. (At least, for the Lakers. Everything that happens with the Lakers gets at least some scrutiny.)

[h4]Record Against Top Seven Teams[/h4]

Chicago	8	4
Boston	8	4
San Antonio	6	4
Dallas	7	5
Orlando	5	7
Miami	3	8
Los Angeles	2	7

[th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Wins[/th][th=""]Losses[/th]

Additionally, there are big weaknesses one can point to, much more easily than those of Boston or San Antonio. The Heat have no center and until yesterday had no point guard; defensively, they're extremely vulnerable at both positions. Orlando, meanwhile, basically has one good defensive player and no perimeter weapons who can reliably create shots against quality defenses -- the bugaboo that bit them in the playoff loss to Boston a year ago.

But here's the thing: None of that matters. Not one iota. Look for indicators of playoff success, and the items that stand out are regular-season scoring margin, star talent and quality of play heading into the postseason. (I know that last one didn't hold up a year ago, but historically it's rock-solid.)

Performance in spotlight TV Games? A total non-factor.

Won-loss record against elite teams? Meaningless, believe it or not.

Record in close games? Ditto.

Here are the factors that actually matter for the postseason:

1. Miami and Orlando have the three best players in the league. Despite their weaknesses, both teams offset the flaws with strengths no other side can match. Miami's combination of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade is unmatchable. They're the two best perimeter players in the game, and the fact an opponent must account for both stretches most defenses to the limit. Witness the Celtics' acquisition of Jeff Green just to add another perimeter defender, a move that seemed to be made with guarding James and Wade top of mind.

Orlando, meanwhile, has Howard, a wild card because of his ability to overwhelm defenses that lack a huge, physical center. With Howard having refined his post game this season and making a real run at James for the league's PER crown, he's providing a much more broad-based offensive threat to build the Magic attack around. Combine that with noted Howard stopper Kendrick Perkins' departure to the Western Conference, and Orlando has to like its odds in the playoffs.

The reason this matters in the playoffs is a simple one: You can play your stars more minutes in the postseason, given the high stakes and increased time off between games, and thus use the weaker bench players less. If Howard can play 46 minutes a game it doesn't matter if the Magic don't have a backup center, and if James and Wade are on the floor for 45 apiece the Heat's bench shortcomings are similarly masked.

They've won in the playoffs before. James, Wade and Howard account for three of the past five Eastern Conference championships. We're really saying they can't be factors? While Boston has the trump card of knocking off all three in succession in last season's playoffs, the Celtics couldn't get past Orlando the year before and barely beat a much weaker LeBron-led Cleveland team in the second round in their 2008 title run.

Orlando, in particular, has seen its playoff success dismissed far too often. Only one team has won more series over the past two years -- the Lakers, obviously. Orlando has won five playoff rounds in the past two seasons, which is one more than Boston, not to mention four more than San Antonio or Dallas, and five more than Chicago or Miami.

Scoring margin. The best predictor of future success is scoring margin. Miami's plus-7.6 mark is tops in the league, and Orlando's plus-6.0 is within a point of all the other contenders getting much more ink. Both those marks look even better if you consider recent play, which as I mentioned above is another major factor in playoff success. The Heat are 34-9 since a wobbly first month and haven't lost by more than six points in a game James played in since Nov. 27. The Magic, meanwhile, have 10 double-digit wins in their last 19 outings. Take that in for a second -- they'd be 10-9 in their last 19 even if they spotted the other team 10 points.

In summary, none of this means the Magic or Heat are necessarily destined to win the title. Some of the weaknesses enumerated above may eventually come back to bite them -- in particular, I don't like how Miami's offense matches up against Boston's defensive style, and any team that can put fouls on Howard has a great shot of beating Orlando.

Nonetheless, I think their odds are at least as good as anyone else's, including Boston and L.A. We'll get another national TV test tonight when the Florida teams play each other, and we can be sure that the loser will find itself immediately dismissed nationally. It could be a recurring theme in the Heat's case -- Miami plays 10 straight games against winning teams before a final lap through the league's doormats in April.

Somehow, however, the idea that both teams are fatally flawed has gained tremendous traction. Between the inability of the teams' history to provide a counterargument, the lure of overreacting to national TV games, and the failure to understand that records in close games and records against good teams are both meaningless predictors of playoff success, the two Florida teams are held in far less regard than they should be. Come May, that position may need reconsidering.

 

[nicedudewithnicedreams]

Originally Posted by Proshares

Rookie report, a very good analysis IMO of Cousins and his game.

Thanks for the post.

 

[nicedudewithnicedreams]

Originally Posted by Proshares

Rookie report, a very good analysis IMO of Cousins and his game.

Thanks for the post.

 

[T0INE]

New Slam Covers:

Speaking of Slam, anyone picked up there 500 greatest NBA players issue yet?

 

[T0INE]

New Slam Covers:

Speaking of Slam, anyone picked up there 500 greatest NBA players issue yet?