**OFFICIAL** 2018 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD

[651akathepaul]

Traded Luck (who I picked up off waivers just last week) for Matt Ryan straight up. Did it mostly because I realized Luck had the same bye week as Dalton. What do y’all think?

You win the trade, easy.

DCook back to questionable.
Should I stay starting him as Flex or go with

Carson at Oak
Enunwa vs Ind (ppr league)

Carson


Something for everyone to consider who own Seattle or Oakland players...there is a 90% chance of rain for the game on Sunday and it's being played in London. Keep in mind the turf in Wembley. It's meant and mostly used for soccer, which from what I've heard in reports from London this week, is on the more "plush" side of the spectrum and does not usually have big dudes the size of the players in the NFL tearing up the grass.

I would expect a very heavy does of Marshawn, Carson/Davis. It is often said that rain/snow conditions can favor the offensive passing game because the offensive player knows where he's going and the slippery conditions make it hard for the defense to catch up; however, if the grass is as bad as they're making it out to be, I think the turf slips right out from under receivers and DB's alike. I don't know if you wanna start any receivers from those teams. TE's are probably ok, for quick, short passing game, but this is probably going to be a game won on the ground.

 

[Olympus]

Would y’all trade Dalvin Cook for D Freeman straight up?

 

[Final Bosa]

You win the trade, easy.



Carson


Something for everyone to consider who own Seattle or Oakland players...there is a 90% chance of rain for the game on Sunday and it's being played in London. Keep in mind the turf in Wembley. It's meant and mostly used for soccer, which from what I've heard in reports from London this week, is on the more "plush" side of the spectrum and does not usually have big dudes the size of the players in the NFL tearing up the grass.

I would expect a very heavy does of Marshawn, Carson/Davis. It is often said that rain/snow conditions can favor the offensive passing game because the offensive player knows where he's going and the slippery conditions make it hard for the defense to catch up; however, if the grass is as bad as they're making it out to be, I think the turf slips right out from under receivers and DB's alike. I don't know if you wanna start any receivers from those teams. TE's are probably ok, for quick, short passing game, but this is probably going to be a game won on the ground.

Thanks for the solid info.

Edit* Found local time in London 6pm, so 10am PST still.

 

[651akathepaul]

That sucks. I was hoping for the 6am start.

 

[atransta]

Just traded Jordan Howard and Alex Smith for Kamara in my team 16 league. I need to win now but I think the deal was too good to pass up.

 

[651akathepaul]

Very good trade outcome for you. Good ****.

 

[freddie black]

You win the trade, easy.
Something for everyone to consider who own Seattle or Oakland players...there is a 90% chance of rain for the game on Sunday and it's being played in London. Keep in mind the turf in Wembley. It's meant and mostly used for soccer, which from what I've heard in reports from London this week, is on the more "plush" side of the spectrum and does not usually have big dudes the size of the players in the NFL tearing up the grass.

I would expect a very heavy does of Marshawn, Carson/Davis. It is often said that rain/snow conditions can favor the offensive passing game because the offensive player knows where he's going and the slippery conditions make it hard for the defense to catch up; however, if the grass is as bad as they're making it out to be, I think the turf slips right out from under receivers and DB's alike. I don't know if you wanna start any receivers from those teams. TE's are probably ok, for quick, short passing game, but this is probably going to be a game won on the ground.

Not that this necessarily refutes the point you're trying to make but rain doesn't typically have as big of an effect on fantasy production as the general public seems to believe; the more influential factors tend to be wind and temperature/snow.

There are on the field (re: personnel) factors that could lead to the game being high scoring and it coming via the pass:

• London games have an 11-5 over/under record which has moved from 47 to 48.5
• Raiders pass defense is 30th in DVOA
• Both defenses have been susceptible to pass plays of 20+ yards
• Both QBs face advantageous combined pressure rates
• West coast QBs traveling for an "east coast" game typically outperform their projections

 

[651akathepaul]

Might depend on what kind of rain we're talking about. Weather it's a dizzle or pellets dropping, it is still considered rain when it comes to the forecast. My concern, and the reason I mention it, is because of the field.

The forecasting calls for a 90-percent chance of rain in London, down to 25 percent at 6 p.m., the local time for Sunday’s game. That is likely to make an already notoriously sloppy grass field at Wembley Stadium sloppier. That tends to favor running the ball because it is more difficult to make sharp cuts in the passing game with those type of field conditions.

As a betting man, I typically favor overs and passing games in rain conditions, but something tells me this one will be different is all.

Aside from the weather though, you have a team with an old school coach with an old school approach in Oakland with a QB struggling with interceptions. You also have Seattle who seems hell bent on running the football in a heavy passing era. That on top of the weather, on top of the field...I'm not trying to overthink it.

 

[buc em]

I wanna start him but gonna roll with Brate which I’m still not too confident about

Jameis loves him some Brate. You should be fine.

 

[KobetheGOAT]

Just traded Jordan Howard and Alex Smith for Kamara in my team 16 league. I need to win now but I think the deal was too good to pass up.

Great trade for you

 

[KobetheGOAT]

Barkley, Ertz and Jeffery got me 70 points on TNF to start off the week

 

[JCMojica24]

Larry Fitzgerald sitting on the FA list should i add and start over Enunwa? It’s just a bye week filler bc I have Tate and Mike Thomas back next week.

 

[buc em]

Somebody actually dropped Corey Davis in one of my 12 man leagues. Scooped him up and dropped Crowder.

 

[JCMojica24]

Larry Fitzgerald sitting on the FA list should i add and start over Enunwa? It’s just a bye week filler bc I have Tate and Mike Thomas back next week.

 

[kicks2024]

Somebody actually dropped Corey Davis in one of my 12 man leagues. Scooped him up and dropped Crowder.

Meh not really asignificant upgrade there unless you really need the depth, doubt you ever play davis.

 

[kicks2024]

I got Ebron but someone dropped Rudolph earlier this week. Waiting til doyle returns n ill go after him, if i miss then Brate is out there

 

[buc em]

Meh not really asignificant upgrade there unless you really need the depth, doubt you ever play davis.

I have Thielen, Sanders and John Brown all on bye Week 10 unfortunately and Davis plays the Patriots that week so he should be good money for me

 

[Bert.]

Larry Fitzgerald sitting on the FA list should i add and start over Enunwa? It’s just a bye week filler bc I have Tate and Mike Thomas back next week.

Fitz worthless man, I'm sure hell have one decent game but knowing when it will happen... good luck

 

[kicks2024]

I have Thielen, Sanders and John Brown all on bye Week 10 unfortunately and Davis plays the Patriots that week so he should be good money for me

Damn yeah good pickup then

 

[junglejim]

Larry Fitzgerald sitting on the FA list should i add and start over Enunwa? It’s just a bye week filler bc I have Tate and Mike Thomas back next week.

The cardinals run far and away the least amount of plays a game and David johnson gets almost all of the redzone looks. I'm not touching anyone on that team with a 10 foot pole

I have Thielen, Sanders and John Brown all on bye Week 10 unfortunately and Davis plays the Patriots that week so he should be good money for me

This ppr or standard? If its standard he is going to do nothing for you. He has been worthless outside of one week

 

[macbk]

Just traded Jordan Howard and Alex Smith for Kamara in my team 16 league. I need to win now but I think the deal was too good to pass up.

How did you pull this off?? Kamara owner that worried about Ingram?

 

[cubanref]

I think this is a good time to try and trade for Kamara. There are owners out there are panicking because of his last game and Ingram scoring twice. I feel like the Saints just wanted to give him a break leading up to the bye week. Still think he finishes as a top 5 RB regardless of Ingram being back.

 

[Final Bosa]

NO can easily go back to a commitee. Ingram's a great player.

I would of personally tried to swap for Gordon or Barkley if possible. If I was the Kamara owner.

Nice come up though. atransta

 

[Bert.]

How did you pull this off?? Kamara owner that worried about Ingram?

Let's take a journey back in time to Week 4 of the 2017 season. The Saints were across the pond playing the Dolphins followed up with a bye in Week 5. During that bye week the Saints moved on from the short-lived Adrian Peterson era and while I know he didn't factor in much during those first four weeks, I decided to start my research in Week 6 when it truly was a 1-2 punch.

Volume is the name of the game in fantasy. Let's start there.

Week # / Kamara touches / Ingram Touches

Week 6: 13 / 30

Week 7: 14 / 26

Week 8: 11 / 24

Week 9: 16 / 17

Week 10: 17 / 21

Week 11: 14 / 14

Week 12: 11 / 13

Week 13: 14 / 20

Week 14: 4* / 16 (*Kamara injured on 1st series of game - did not return)

Week 15: 18 / 17

Week 16: 19 / 16

Week 17: 15 / 17

Kamara - 192 touches / Ingram - 252 touches


Volume is important, but you gotta do something with it.

Rather than a game by game break down I will just hit you with the totals (standard scoring).

Week 6 - 17: Kamara - 192.4 / Ingram 196.5

So what are some takeaways from all of this?

- Kamara has never had a game with 20 touches playing alongside Ingram.

- Ingram had more touches and more fantasy points from Week 6-17.

- Kamara averaged 1 point per touch.

Those are the facts, so what do we do with them?

If I was a Kamara owner would I be worried?

No - The MNF was very fluky. With the workload that he had taken on those first four weeks combined with Ingram's first game back it made a great deal sense to ride Ingram. The final variable to this equation was a blowout which gave another reason to keep it light on Kamara. Going forward, despite yet having a 20 touch game with Ingram present I would expect his workload to be somewhere between 15-20 touches per game.

One minor concern is that he averaged 1 point per touch over this stretch covered. That isn't easy to do, however; with the volume being what it is, he will have to keep that pace up to remain and elite option. With that said, the way the Saints use him I think he has a decent shot at repeating the point per touch standard.

Buy Ingram!

If you would poll 100 casual to even hard-core fantasy players on who they would rather have ROS in standard scoring I feel confident we would have 95%+ in the Kamara camp. However, the 12 game sample from last season in which Ingram outscored Kamara is a pretty fair sample size. I wouldn't bet the farm on Ingram outscoring Kamara ROS, but based on what Ingram would cost in a trade vs. what would Kamara would cost it would def be the value play. With the Saints being on a bye this week you can probably get him just a tick cheaper as well.

For anyone that follows Dave Richard's trade chart he has Kamara at a value of 36 and Ingram at a 22 value. Terrible on his part, but helpful if you are looking to acquire Ingram.


Okay this has become rather long-winded and I am going to wrap it up now. Keep in mind that this analysis was done in standard scoring. While Ingram is no slouch in the rec. department, Kamara's value does receive a boost in PPR formats.

 

[buc em]

I think this is a good time to try and trade for Kamara. There are owners out there are panicking because of his last game and Ingram scoring twice. I feel like the Saints just wanted to give him a break leading up to the bye week. Still think he finishes as a top 5 RB regardless of Ingram being back.

Yup

Offered this dude Lindsey, Sanders and Greg Olsen last night for Kamara and TY to see if he’s panicking with the two of them