How did you pull this off?? Kamara owner that worried about Ingram?
Let's take a journey back in time to Week 4 of the 2017 season. The Saints were across the pond playing the Dolphins followed up with a bye in Week 5. During that bye week the Saints moved on from the short-lived Adrian Peterson era and while I know he didn't factor in much during those first four weeks, I decided to start my research in Week 6 when it truly was a 1-2 punch.
Volume is the name of the game in fantasy. Let's start there.
Week # / Kamara touches / Ingram Touches
Week 6: 13 / 30
Week 7: 14 / 26
Week 8: 11 / 24
Week 9: 16 / 17
Week 10: 17 / 21
Week 11: 14 / 14
Week 12: 11 / 13
Week 13: 14 / 20
Week 14: 4* / 16 (*Kamara injured on 1st series of game - did not return)
Week 15: 18 / 17
Week 16: 19 / 16
Week 17: 15 / 17
Kamara - 192 touches / Ingram - 252 touches
Volume is important, but you gotta do something with it.
Rather than a game by game break down I will just hit you with the totals (standard scoring).
Week 6 - 17: Kamara - 192.4 / Ingram 196.5
So what are some takeaways from all of this?
- Kamara has never had a game with 20 touches playing alongside Ingram.
- Ingram had more touches and more fantasy points from Week 6-17.
- Kamara averaged 1 point per touch.
Those are the facts, so what do we do with them?
If I was a Kamara owner would I be worried?
No - The MNF was very fluky. With the workload that he had taken on those first four weeks combined with Ingram's first game back it made a great deal sense to ride Ingram. The final variable to this equation was a blowout which gave another reason to keep it light on Kamara. Going forward, despite yet having a 20 touch game with Ingram present I would expect his workload to be somewhere between 15-20 touches per game.
One minor concern is that he averaged 1 point per touch over this stretch covered. That isn't easy to do, however; with the volume being what it is, he will have to keep that pace up to remain and elite option. With that said, the way the Saints use him I think he has a decent shot at repeating the point per touch standard.
Buy Ingram!
If you would poll 100 casual to even hard-core fantasy players on who they would rather have ROS in standard scoring I feel confident we would have 95%+ in the Kamara camp. However, the 12 game sample from last season in which Ingram outscored Kamara is a pretty fair sample size. I wouldn't bet the farm on Ingram outscoring Kamara ROS, but based on what Ingram would cost in a trade vs. what would Kamara would cost it would def be the value play. With the Saints being on a bye this week you can probably get him just a tick cheaper as well.
For anyone that follows Dave Richard's trade chart he has Kamara at a value of 36 and Ingram at a 22 value. Terrible on his part, but helpful if you are looking to acquire Ingram.
Okay this has become rather long-winded and I am going to wrap it up now. Keep in mind that this analysis was done in standard scoring. While Ingram is no slouch in the rec. department, Kamara's value does receive a boost in PPR formats.
