Well I started writing then it got deleted. Don't feel like doing it again, so I'll try to sum it up quickly just for Starting Pitching.
There's 3 guys who are guarantees for the rotation: Severino, Tanaka & Sheffield (likely in May)
We need to carry 6 starters, and whoever is not in the 5, still should be getting 15 - 20 starts = 2-3 per month.
Severino -
He was an Ace in the first half, and fell off in the second half. He could be tipping his pitches, or he just ran out of gas. But he needs another offseason with Pedro. I think the main issue is he had a really ineffective change up. His fastball and slider are elite when it's on. And he didn't have any drop in velocity, but his change up was a negative grade. In order for Severino to have consistent success, he has to be able to mix at the very least an average change up in with the Fastball & Slider. It's difficult enough to be an Ace. It's even more difficult if you're trying to do it on two pitches.
Tanaka -
He was pretty consistent. But in the 2nd half, he was who we need him to be. His homeruns are down a bit. But the main reason for his success, is that he's throwing the slider more. The only down side is his slider & splitter are 2/3 of his pitches. With that many offspeed / breaking pitches, you're bound to throw a few flat ones. That's why he's always been susceptible to the long ball. And it typically it seems like it comes one of three times. In the first. Randomly the 4th or 5th. Or when he's down in the 7th. Where we get lucky is he doesn't put a lot of guys on base.
Sheffield -
31st ranked prospect. 4th LHP. He doesn't have light them up stuff. But he mixes his pitches well. He pitched as good in AAA as he did in AA. I think Yankees may have him throw in Spring Training. Start him in the minors, and bring him up a few weeks in or in May like they did with Gleyber.
Now how do we fix the starters? It comes from 3 questions
1. CC or JA?
2. Corbin or Keuchel?
3. Trade Package?
1. CC or JA?
The answer for this is who takes a 1 year deal. JA pitched well all year, and was lights out in Aug & Sept for us. He's only 35. So he may be able to find a 2-3 year deal somewhere, even if it's only on the strength of what he did for us. I like JA, but I don't want to commit multiple years to him.
Everyone was happy CC came back because he had a great 2017. He got a lot of crap this year, but he was nearly identical statistically in many areas. CC isn't going for a multi year deal. He was able to adapt again, and now is incorporating a really good cutter. Back end of the rotation, for 1 year, I'm fine with that. Because I think CC will be cheaper and less years than Happ
2. Corbin or Keuchel?
Both lefties.
Keuchel has already played his 30 season. His strike outs are down, Swinging strikes are down. His fastball value is down, his slider value is really down. Now I'm not concerned too much because Keuchel is a good pitcher, and isn't relying on velocity, and think he can regain his form. But I also would think he's going to be loyal to Houston. It's one thing to pay premium price for a FA pitcher. It's another thing to pay premium price plus some to buy loyalty and he's on the other side of 30.
Corbin was helped by a monster slider. It really even boosted his fastball. Like Keuchel, he doesn't rely on velocity. It's all about location and killer breaking stuff. It'll be the first year of his 30s next year.
Last year Arrieta got 3 year / $75mil. Darvish got 6 year / $125mil
A few years ago Cueto got 6year / $130mil. Greinke 6 year / $206mil. Zimmerman 5 year / $110mil
I'd go Corbin. Better fit. I'm higher on him than I am on Keuchel, even though both will be fine.
Somewhere between Arrieta's deal and Cueto's deal. 5 year / $120mil to go after Corbin max, basically what we save on letting Happ go, and trading someone else. Possibly give him an option to opt out of Year 5. Allows him to go after another multi year deal elsewhere if he chooses going into his 35 season. Would give him the 12th highest pitcher contract.
3. Trade Package?
Where we can start.... Sonny Gray, Clint Fraizer. Gray will be 29 next year. Last year of arbitration. We have no use for him, but when he's on, he has # 2 starter stuff. Just not in NY. Maybe another team will be okay taking that shot.
Clint is still a good prospect, but we have no use for him unless he comes off the bench.
Can include Greg Bird if they want to move on and go forward with Luke. As much as it sucks because we need a lefty bat, and he has so much offensive potential.
3 guys who have question marks, but a ton of potential. And we can include a ton of pitchers, most of our top 30 are pitchers. If we can find a team that takes a mixture of unproven prospects + guys who have some track record, but if it works out, you got a steal.
If we can get a 2/3 starter or better + Corbin we are in GREAT shape without much pressure on anyone.
Where I would go:
Severino - Tanaka - Corbin - Trade Package (Can't predict at all) - CC
Sheffield in the pen