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Is Harden really a No. 1 option?
Should we have seen this coming?
After coming off the bench for the Oklahoma City Thunder and having to share the ball with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, James Harden is flourishing in his role as the Houston Rockets' No. 1 option. He is averaging a staggering 35.3 points per game on 52.9 percent shooting while dishing out 6.3 assists and grabbing 6.3 boards. His player efficiency rating? A sky-high 41.7.
Three games in and everyone wants to know: Is "Beardsanity" a fluke or is it for real?
My answer: Harden has done this before, so we shouldn't be surprised by his dominance. Plus, we've been blinded by our undying reverence for per-game averages and the star talents of Durant and Westbrook.
Harden's average of 16.8 points per game last season doesn't scream "bona fide NBA star," but it also tells us next to nothing about his ability to be a No. 1 option.
Why? First, his scoring average was artificially deflated due to playing time; Harden played only 31.4 minutes per game thanks to Oklahoma City's strategy of bringing him off the bench, which is abnormal for a player of his caliber. For example, Harden's Team USA teammates averaged 36.4 minutes per game last season. Harden is averaging 41.7 minutes per game in his first three contests this season, and we're seeing what he can do when he's treated like a star in the minutes column -- even if his playing time is unsustainably high.
Second, this season, Harden doesn't have to share the ball with two other ball-dominant players. There's no doubt that playing next to Durant and Westbrook can have its legitimate advantages (goodbye, double-teams!), but the hard truth is that sharing the court with those two stars absolutely slaughtered Harden's numbers.
Harden's hidden stats
We hear it all the time: Context is everything. When it comes to the fascinating case of Harden, this axiom nails it on the head. Let's start with a baseline. Harden scored 19.3 points per 36 minutes last season. Not bad. Using NBA.com's advanced stats page, we can see how Harden's numbers change depending on whether Durant or Westbrook was on the court, but not both. That takes some digging inside the incredible StatsCube Excel database.
So how did Harden do when he played with both Durant and Westbrook on the court?
A measly 13.3 points per 36 minutes.
Yes, that's it. You know who scored 13.3 points per 36 minutes last season? Brandon Rush. Further, Harden played next to Westbrook and Durant for the bulk of his playing time -- 60 percent of his overall minutes. And contrary to popular belief, playing the third wheel didn't help his percentages. Harden shot just 46 percent from the floor when the Olympian trio took the court, down from his overall 49 percent.
Let's go deeper inside the numbers.
What about when Harden was the second fiddle? Here, we're talking about two scenarios: First, playing next to Durant without Westbrook; and second, playing next to Westbrook without Durant. If you watched the Thunder last season, you know that the former happened a lot, but the latter didn't. Thunder coach Scott Brooks rarely paired Harden and Westbrook together without Durant there to stabilize the attack.
So, what was Harden's scoring rate per 36 minutes with just Durant? 22.8 points on 49 percent shooting in 250 minutes. And with just Westbrook? 22.3 points on 55 percent shooting in just 63 minutes, an admittedly very small sample size. The subtraction of one ball-dominant star from the equation added nearly 10 points to Harden's scoring rate. This makes sense, but it's helpful to actually put numbers behind the "sharing the ball" concept.
And now, here comes the juicy part: Examining Harden as the alpha dog, when he was released from the shackles of Durant's and Westbrook's ball-dominance.
What was Harden's scoring rate when he was the clear No. 1 option last season?
Try 32.6 points per 36 minutes.
You read that correctly; when defenses keyed in on Harden as the No. 1 option, Harden responded by scoring like Michael Jordan, and he shot 53 percent from the floor in these situations. Plus, it gets better: Harden dished out 6.2 assists per 36 minutes, up from his normal rate of 4.3 assists. And remember, he was racking up all those assists by feeding the likes of Royal Ivey, Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed.
To recap: Harden as third wheel -- 13.3 points per 36 minutes; Harden as second fiddle -- about 22.5 points per 36 minutes; and Harden as No. 1 option -- 32.6 points per 36 minutes.
Alpha dog dominance against all competition
So maybe we shouldn't be surprised to see alpha dog Harden taking over the league. He has already excelled in that role before, but you couldn't see it from the treetops.
Now, I know what you're thinking: Of course he dominated against second units. This seems like a reasonable rebuttal. After all, Harden faced some iffy lineups when he anchored Oklahoma City's second unit. Anyone will look like a superstar when he is going against a team of benchwarmers, right?
Well, what if I told you that he dominated against starter-caliber lineups, too?
This is the most fascinating finding when we put Harden's production under the microscope. Using ESPN.com's 2012 #NBArank feature as a barometer for player quality, every unit that Harden played against was given an average rating based on each player's #NBArank score. (For those who aren't familiar, #NBArank asked more than 100 of our contributors to rank each player on a scale of 1 to 10; LeBron James checked out at 9.9 while Eddy Curry was given a 1.2 score on the bottom end.)
With this tool, we can see how Harden did according to the strength of his opponent. To qualify as a "good" lineup, the unit had to average a 5.0 rating or higher. As expected, the majority of lineups that Harden faced as the alpha dog did not measure up. Of the 460 minutes that Harden starred as the alpha dog, only 106 were against above-average lineups.
Let's peel off another layer and look at Harden's production as a No. 1 option against good lineups.
Somehow, Harden did even better against tougher competition: He scored 35.0 points every 36 minutes and shot 50.8 percent from the floor, including an eye-popping 48 percent from beyond the arc. It's not surprising that Harden took more shots as an alpha dog, but he maintained a stellar efficiency while shouldering the load against quality opponents. That's what makes him a star.
Add all these little fragments up and we see that Harden has a history of thriving as the No. 1 option even against star-studded lineups and those featuring defensive stalwarts like Avery Bradley. That's why it's essential that we consider the context before jumping to conclusions that Harden isn't a star-caliber player because of his lukewarm per-game numbers.
He might not maintain his current torrid scoring pace, but there's a good chance he'll be in the conversation for the scoring title. When the Rockets handed a reserve player an $80 million contract, many thought Harden was nothing more than fool's gold. But more and more, it's looking like the Rockets found a true gem.
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