***Official Political Discussion Thread***



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I suspect Powell’s calendar has a lot of meetings titled “SVB” right now…

He was in a rough place, though. It’s pretty easy to point fingers at the Fed because monetary policy is still mostly unilateral. We’ve all just become numb to Congressional dysfunction, and hence the lack of sound fiscal policy in the face of macro challenges.

It was always clear to me that last year’s inflation had a lot to do with supply shocks in China and Russia, and that monetary policy could only be compensatory and not prophylactic. But we can’t get our collective heads out of our behinds to save ourselves from climate doom, how could we possibly tackle the mess that is the modern supply chain?

IMO, I think you're being a bit too charitable to Powell. His goal is to suppress wages. If Congress had passed the full BBB, made the child tax credit permanent, made expanded SNAP benefits permanent, made the $300 per week Fed top up on unemployment payments permanent, and expanded UI benefits to freelancers and other independent contractors, then I'd say that it is an ideal time for a rate hike because Congress did what it needed to do to provide fiscal stimulus and protect those at the bottom from the inevitable job loses, hours cut, and pay cuts that are coming from this rate hike.

Under this current policy environment, the working class is finding itself between a fiscal hammer and a monetary anvil. This all feels like revenge for that annus horribilis for employers, those darks days in 2020 and 2021 when they had to suffer humiliations like not being able to scream at their employees, having to provide hourly employees with a predictable schedule, soften their prohibition on remote works, and worst of all having to raise wages a little bit. This is the business community's revenge. It's time to get the serfs back on the treadmill with the threat of hunger and homeless dangling above their heads once again.


Rate hikes should increase wages relatively no?

And I haven't dug in, but employment gains have been carried by service and ancillary industries that lagged behind coming out of the pandemic no?

In 2006, I had some unkind words for social sciences other than Economics. I regret that now. The reason is that disciplines like sociology, political science, and the various -studies programs, let you see the whole picture and how it intersects with conventional economic models.

Powell slipped up and admitted that wages were going up too fast. He quickly back peddled and said that he was referring to high earners in tech and finance. I am doubtful of this because economics rarely happens in a perfect market and firms exist largely for the benefit of those at the top.

A year or two ago, an adorably naïve tech bro asked "why not automate the job of CEO." His argument was sound. Since a CEO is pay many times more than a front line employee, why not automate the job. The tech bro missed the more important sociological point. It would be like asking "hey, the point of feudalism is the common defense of the realm, Counts, and Dukes, and Kings consume much of the surplus of resources. If there were no more aristocrats, we could build more castles and hire more soldiers." The reason why that never happened is that feudalism existed primarily for the benefit of those at the top and protecting the protecting realm was, at best, a secondary priority. The same is true with the modern corporation, increasing share holder value is important but equally or more important is making a few people wealthy. The revolving door between the C-suite, the boards of directors, and the large institutional investors that own the stocks (and could theoretically remove the board and the C-suite) all run in the same social circles.

So yes, in the theory, rate hikes should lower prices across the board and that should benefit consumers but we have to keep in mind that plenty of people will lose 100% of their purchasing power when they get laid off. That has a ripple effect because other workers will be afraid of losing their jobs and won't demand raises or better working conditions. So overall, this rate hike, combined with the oncoming austerity will serve to erase the modest gain enjoyed by the working class these last three years and the grandees will find themselves in a stronger position than ever.
 
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