***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[biggie62]

Trump is going to win all those states it going come down to Pennsylvania

I’m hoping she can flip NC. They’ve had a lot of transplants there the past 4-8 years. I’m just curious if they can somehow start turning that state more purple and blue.

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

 

[aepps20]

Poll are good data but polling is getting more and more difficult. Whether good or bad we have to focus on GOTV efforts. You can often tell the state of the race based on where candidates are spending their time. I will add that the same poll had Kam +5 pre debate but -5 post debate in Arizona

 

[trappedintime]

This data is more interesting to me because it’s factual.

“The Pennsylvania Secretary of State reported that 2,704,147 mail ballots were cast in the 2020 presidential elections, which was about 39 percent of the total ballots cast statewide.”

I can’t find off hand what the party breakdown was in 2020, but that’s about half as many mail-in votes for PA this time around and almost 2:1 Democrat to Republican. That supports Trump turnout is likely down in PA and not a particularly good sign for him.

 

[trappedintime]

Ok, Biden got 1.995M votes vs 595k for Trump in PA via mail-in/absentee. So that metric although positive for Harris is lower (2.5x vs 3x) than Biden’s advantage. Let’s assume she takes 60% of those independents (142k). That’s still only 2.66x advantage over Trump.

I guess what is positive is that in pure numbers Trump is probably looking at a ceiling of 400k mail-in votes vs 595k in 2020 in PA.

Edit: It’s also worth pointing out that with covid Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to register to vote mail-in. So some of the attrition to Dem early voting may be baked into them turning out in-person as opposed to Republicans who were far less inclined to vote absentee in 2020.

Also national data on mail-in voting in 2020 via Pew: Nearly four-in-ten absentee or mail voters (39%) say they had never voted by this method prior to this November’s election. Biden absentee or mail-in voters were slightly more likely than Trump absentee voters to report not having voted this way in the past (42% vs. 34%).

 

[biggie62]

Ok, Biden got 1.995M votes vs 595k for Trump in PA via mail-in/absentee. So that metric although positive for Harris is lower (2.5x vs 3x) than Biden’s advantage. Let’s assume she takes 60% of those independents (142k). That’s still only 2.66x advantage over Trump.

I guess what is positive is that in pure numbers Trump is probably looking at a ceiling of 400k mail-in votes vs 595k in 2020 in PA.

Edit: It’s also worth pointing out that with covid Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to register to vote mail-in. So some of the attrition to Dem early voting may be baked into them turning out in-person as opposed to Republicans who were far less inclined to vote absentee in 2020.

Also national data on mail-in voting in 2020 via Pew: Nearly four-in-ten absentee or mail voters (39%) say they had never voted by this method prior to this November’s election. Biden absentee or mail-in voters were slightly more likely than Trump absentee voters to report not having voted this way in the past (42% vs. 34%).

I agree with your above takes especially that more Dems will be in person voting this time around I feel.

 

[trappedintime]

I agree with your above takes especially that more Dems will be in person voting this time around I feel.

Yeah it feels like we're headed toward a lower turnout, higher in-person election in 2024. That has to favor Harris in swing states simply because her GOTV workers are paid and Trump's are volunteers or this Musk PAC that no one is seeing canvasing at all.

Republicans in swing states say they see scant signs of groups door-knocking for Trump

Republican activists in swing states say they’ve seen little sign of the teams tasked with knocking on doors and turning out infrequent voters on behalf of Donald Trump.

apnews.com

 

[pmatic]

 

[aepps20]

I think the GOP senator used to be a Dem

 

[essential1]

This data is more interesting to me because it’s factual.

“The Pennsylvania Secretary of State reported that 2,704,147 mail ballots were cast in the 2020 presidential elections, which was about 39 percent of the total ballots cast statewide.”

I can’t find off hand what the party breakdown was in 2020, but that’s about half as many mail-in votes for PA this time around and almost 2:1 Democrat to Republican. That supports Trump turnout is likely down in PA and not a particularly good sign for him.

Democrats were 68-22

Difference is 2024 mail in ballot voters were likely in person voters in 2020 for Republicans or will be first time Republican voters.
And Democratic Party mail ins for 2020 will go to the polls in 24 at a higher rate because there isn’t a pandemic.

 

[ajiiiplatinum]

Every summer, I try to think of ways to teach my incoming Econ 101 students.

I’m torn between two goals.

One goal is my mandate to teach intro micro Econ. That’s something that one needs to know in order to be taken seriously by a lot of decision makers out there in the world.

Ha-Joon Chang explains it very well…



I hit them with this clip during the first class.


I also try to tell them that Intro economics is not a hard science, nor is it a business course. It’s a social science class which has become a sort of universal language among not just academics but also the language of business and politics. I council them to not take passing my course as some deep, proprietary knowledge of how the entire world economy functions. Instead, it lets you fruitfully read and observe debates about the world economy.

As much as Econ, even just one intro micro class, can unlock doors of communication and access to things you didn’t have access to before, avoid this guys’ fate…

(I show them a clip of Stringer Bell getting shot in his yet unfinished tower and point out that this man had taken sone Econ classes but it didn’t make him bullet proof)

…technically it’s not a spoiler because I don’t even say which show it’s from. A few get it and those few tend to tell their classmates to watch the show.


I hope my warnings get headed but if not, the kids have a lot of years to figure out how little a perfect model micro model can predict.

I was an Economic Policy major in college (took Econ 101 there) but prior to college I was not exposed to Economics. It was not a required course for graduation in LAUSD High Schools. Economics is more mathematical so I went the Economic Policy route because that gives it the human touch. Pure economics may require no business regulation to maximize profits in the short term but economic policy gives more weight to human behaviors, time, and externalities.

 

[pmatic]

 

[osh kosh bosh]

down bad hall of fame.

 

[Fozz]

Imagine thirsting for RFK Jr. like this. Sheesh.

 

[chao7]

Just kind of wanted to chime in with a thought that's definitely not original. According to Kornacki, Kamala had that 5% lead in polling while winning women voters by 21%

Men better not **** this up royally for everyone. As a dude myself: Do better

 

[Blake P]

Imagine thirsting for RFK Jr. like this. Sheesh.

But can YOU do 8.5 pushups, bruh?!

 

[essential1]

Nuzzi down bad

 

[Mark Antony]

Wonder if RFK is gonna make a vid with Ted Nugent explaining this. He's not running anymore so maybe not.

 

[frank mucus]

Anyone watch the videos on Jubilee's channel on youtube like 20 conservatives vs 1 liberal and 25 woke vs 1 conservative. The latter has me heated watching it. First one was bad too, but both sides have equally terrible people.

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

But can YOU do 8.5 pushups, bruh?!

Chest ain’t touch ground once and he ain’t lock out once

Shouldn’t be surprised after his struggle incline.. but lord someone gotta teach him how to do a single exercise right

 

[IATT]