:::[Official] San Francisco 49ers 2024 Season Thread [2-2 vs Cardinals 10/07 1:05PST]:::

[ady2glude707]

Well it could be the reason why most QBs dont pan out then when they shouldve sat them? We dont know. Also, other teams rookie QBs might give them the better chance to win, rather than the 'bridge qb'. But what I posted is the reason why Lance isnt starting for us. If we didnt have a SB caliber team right now Jimmy woulve been gone.

 

[cedric ceballos]

Jimmy is ultimately on a short leash, and barring them getting hot and winning consistently, at some point they’re making the switch this season. You trade up to draft a guy 3rd because you see him as your future franchise qb. He’s playing sooner rather than later if the ceiling for the incumbent guy is middle of the pack.

I could see them making the switch at the bye if Jimmy stinks it up these next two divisional games. Even if he doesn’t necessarily stink it up but they do a whole lot of nothing on offense.

This team isn’t your typical team picking 3rd in the draft talent level wise, so they can afford to have options with how to handle things. Trey isn’t going into some horrendous situation/organization where he’s set up for failure from the jump whenever he starts.

But there’s no set answer on what to do with rookie qb’s. You had 3 rookies in 2012 start right away and take their teams into the playoffs. Burrow started on a bad team and played well last year. Herbert played well. The guys this year have struggled as have other prior high picks qb wise. Unless it’s an absolute bum like Ryan Leaf or a generational talent like Peyton Manning. There’s numerous reasons as to why rookie qb’s pan out or don’t pan out.

 

[dland24]

Well it could be the reason why most QBs dont pan out then when they shouldve sat them? We dont know. Also, other teams rookie QBs might give them the better chance to win, rather than the 'bridge qb'. But what I posted is the reason why Lance isnt starting for us. If we didnt have a SB caliber team right now Jimmy woulve been gone.

This doesnt make sense either. How your rookie first round QB develops is exponentially more important than giving them a better chance to win than a bridge QB. How the QB develops literally shapes the future of your franchise. Jobs are on the line.

Why would ANY team risk their future if THE best way to develop a QB is to sit him for the year?

As far as your Jimmy would've been gone idea, I think that things change. Prior to the season, I believed this was a SB caliber team. I no longer think that. I think we could be a wildcard team.

 

[ady2glude707]

This doesnt make sense either. How your rookie first round QB develops is exponentially more important than giving them a better chance to win than a bridge QB. How the QB develops literally shapes the future of your franchise. Jobs are on the line.

Why would ANY team risk their future if THE best way to develop a QB is to sit him for the year?

Teams objectives are to win now, like you said "jobs are on the line". And if that means putting in the rookie QB rather than a bridge QB then thats what theyll do. And if that means putting in Jimmy rather than the superior physically talented Lance then thats what theyll do.

 

[dland24]

Teams objectives are to win now, like you said "jobs are on the line". And if that means putting in the rookie QB rather than a bridge QB then thats what theyll do. And if that means putting in Jimmy rather than the superior physically talented Lance then thats what theyll do.

Totally disagree with this. Us disagreeing on that basic idea, is why we wont agree on how to handle a rookie QB.

 

[junglejim]

Well it could be the reason why most QBs dont pan out then when they shouldve sat them? We dont know. Also, other teams rookie QBs might give them the better chance to win, rather than the 'bridge qb'. But what I posted is the reason why Lance isnt starting for us. If we didnt have a SB caliber team right now Jimmy woulve been gone.

This isn’t a superbowl caliber team with Jimmy at QB. Our defense isn’t anywhere near what it was in our superbowl season and we sure as hell aren’t getting away with Jimmy throwing for 70 yards in a playoff game again

 

[ady2glude707]

I mean, if youre an owner you want seats in the stands and you want to see a return on your investment. If youre a coach and have a fixed employment you want to win and save yourself from being fired. Thats why they say "_______ gives us the best chace to win right now". It not like theyre parents trying to raise a child.

This isn’t a superbowl caliber team with Jimmy at QB. Our defense isn’t anywhere near what it was in our superbowl season and we sure as hell aren’t getting away with Jimmy throwing for 70 yards in a playoff game again

We're coming into week 4 of a 17 week season. A lot of things can happen now until the playoffs. All you need to do is get into the playoffs. The hottest team can win the SB, not necessarily the best team.

 

[(*Fin)]

We need to stop giving Kyle so much benefit of the doubt. He’s a great offensive play caller, his scheme and play design is elite and I’m glad he’s our HC after what we experienced before Harbaugh and immediately after Harbaugh but to say he is beyond criticism in all his QB decisions is doing us a disservice. Never forget he chose Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley over Mahomes and Watson just for the chance to maybe give Kirk Cousins a max deal. The Jimmy G opportunity opened up for him but it was more Bill being pissed at Brady for forcing his hand. He also drafted CJ Beathard and thought Mullens would be a good QB in this league. There isn’t any doubt Kyle has a preference when it comes to QBs, in the Mac Jones mold . It’s taken him a few years to realize he needs a game breaker after dealing with Wilson, Kyler, Mahomes, Josh Allen. He’s got a game breaker now but is sticking with his preference. SMH

 

[lightweight champion]

Mahomes sat for a year. Phillip Rivers sat for a year. Kaepernick sat for a year and a half. The guy that just beat us sat for 3 years. Hell, even after trading for Jimmy he still sat for a handful of games despite the clear need to upgrade from Hoyer.

 

[dland24]

Mahomes sat for a year. Phillip Rivers sat for a year. Kaepernick sat for a year and a half. The guy that just beat us sat for 3 years. Hell, even after trading for Jimmy he still sat for a handful of games despite the clear need to upgrade from Hoyer.

Those are called outliers. Especially in today's NFL.

 

[ace]

I don’t subscribe to the sit em theory, because if Jimmy gets hurt tomorrow all of a sudden it’s Trey’s time now. It’s ok to move on. Nick Foles won a goddamn SB but it was clear he’s not their guy, he was good enough to steer the ship on a team that was already going places. Has Jimmy played good, yup. But Trey brings in a extra element, instead of loading the box they have to switch to contain or have someone spy which opens up field for other guys.

Jordan Love has been sitting for how many years now, and he looks just as rookie trash as he would have been having played day one. Sitting doesn’t always equal success.

 

[cedric ceballos]

When you draft a rookie qb with a high first round pick. Let alone one you traded multiple future first rounders to acquire. You’re thinking long term with that move.

I’m sure the organization had some of these same conversations in terms of what they thought this team was capable of. If they didn’t think it was a super bowl caliber roster. They likely let Jimmy go in favor of a more cheaper stop gap qb.

Assuming they make the switch during the bye. I think Trey getting to watch for 5 games is practical. You get the bye and he would still have 12 games this season to learn and develop, and have those growing pains to where a potential leap in year 2 is possible and realistic.

If this was a really bad team. Think 2004-05 49ers with no type of weapons and just bad on both sides of the ball. I would take a much more hesitant approach his rookie year. This team has the talent to put a rookie qb in a position to succeed though. Alex Smith is always going to be compared to Aaron Rodgers and understandably so given they were both drafted in 2005. But between crappy coaches, crappy rosters, and changing offensive coordinators almost every season, the organization did him no favors. This isn’t the case with the situation Trey Lance is coming in to.

I’m warming to the idea of them making the switch during the bye though. If somehow they’re 4-1 after these next two games and Jimmy plays well in the process. Then props, he’s delayed the inevitable for a bit longer. But that leash should and likely will be short.

But all that said. I want to see them beat Seattle this week however that needs to happen. Make them 1-3. They don’t have a first round pick next season either. About time they potentially struggle.

 

[dland24]

I agree with a lot of what you said, Ced. (lol)

Specifically I agree with the "and Jimmy plays well in the process" part. Winning shouldnt be the end all in player analysis. IMO, Jimmy played basically the same against the Eagles as he did against the Packers. Just because we beat the Eagles doesnt mean the performance was acceptable in either game.

I hope we are 4-1 at the bye. I also hope that Jimmy plays great so Trey can stay on the bench for a little while longer. But if we are getting similar production from Jimmy the next two games as we had the last, then its time to make the move.

 

[cedric ceballos]

Agreed. These next two games will be telling though in terms of their trajectory and overall approach going into the bye.

 

[Bosa]

All this back and forth and still no poll for Jimmy vs trey?! Yawwwn where is the op. Put the poll on private because these guys acting like we are harassing them if they are republicans and or trump supporters. Lets see those numbers especially with the closet Trey supporters. ****

 

[lightweight champion]

Those are called outliers. Especially in today's NFL.

And yet the statistics show that the 1st round QBs who didn't sit have failed far more than they have succeeded. Since you mentioned 2012...

- None of the QBs taken in the 1st round between 2012-2016 are on their original teams.
- Only 1 (Mahomes) from the 2017 draft is still playing on his original squad, and he sat.
- 5 QBs were taken in the 1st round in 2018, and 3 of them are on different teams.
- 3 were taken in the 1st round in 2019, none sat, and only one of them to this point looks legit. Of the other two, one looks like trash and the other isn't even signed to a roster.
- 2020 saw 4 QBs taken in the 1st round, one is still sitting behind a HOFer while the other 3 who didn't sit out their rookie years have combined to be sacked 17 times in their first 3 games this season and only Justin Herbert has looked good.
- You're seeing in real time how poorly the 2021 QB class is doing.

Recap:

- Since 2012 only 4 QBs taken in the first round didn't sit and are flourishing.
- 27 of them have either been busts, changed teams, or continue to struggle.
- 1 of them might not ever see the field again because of legal issues.
- And the last one is Mahomes...who sat

 

[dland24]

And yet the statistics show that the 1st round QBs who didn't sit have failed far more than they have succeeded. Since you mentioned 2012...

- None of the QBs taken in the 1st round between 2012-2016 are on their original teams.
- Only 1 (Mahomes) from the 2017 draft is still playing on his original squad, and he sat.
- 5 QBs were taken in the 1st round in 2018, and 3 of them are on different teams.
- 3 were taken in the 1st round in 2019, none sat, and only one of them to this point looks legit. Of the other two, one looks like trash and the other isn't even signed to a roster.
- 2020 saw 4 QBs taken in the 1st round, one is still sitting behind a HOFer while the other 3 who didn't sit out their rookie years have combined to be sacked 17 times in their first 3 games this season and only Justin Herbert has looked good.
- You're seeing in real time how poorly the 2021 QB class is doing.

Recap:

- Since 2012 only 4 QBs taken in the first round didn't sit and are flourishing.
- 27 of them have either been busts, changed teams, or continue to struggle.
- 1 of them might not ever see the field again because of legal issues.
- And the last one is Mahomes...who sat

But this isnt evidence though. Because there is no way of proving that the results that any rookie QB had wouldnt be the exact same results if he was handled differently.

Lets look at Mahomes since he is the most recent success story. The idea that he is what he is because he sat for a year is 100% hypothetical. No one can prove one way or the other that he wouldnt have had similar success if he started day 1, because he DIDNT start day 1.

You talk about 27 have been busts or change teams or whatever. What evidence is there that the Christian Ponders of the world would have been a better QB if he didnt play his first season? You cant, because it didnt happen. Its 100% hypothesis.

Like I said before, if the sure fire BEST way to develop a quarterback is not to play him his first year, then NO ONE would play their rookie QB their first year. Period. If that was the best way to do it, then you are basically saying almost 100% of teams were CHOOSING to develop their QB in a way that is known to not be the best way. Thats essentially what you are arguing.

 

[lightweight champion]

All this back and forth and still no poll for Jimmy vs trey?! Yawwwn where is the op. Put the poll on private because these guys acting like we are harassing them if they are republicans and or trump supporters. Lets see those numbers especially with the closet Trey supporters. ****

No need to keep it private. Everybody is pro-Trey. It's only a matter of now or later.

 

[letsgetit22]

I don't hate Jimmy at all. But for 27 mill a year on a team with a pretty good receiving corps and arguably the best TE in football, I don't expect them to struggle to get past the 50 in the first half like they have done the last 2 games. Most of those issues were because of Jimmy. Throwing too high, interception, throwing to receivers short of the line to gain and expecting them to get the additional yards needed. Kyle needing to protect him so he doesn't do panic and do something dumb etc... Also, I don't care about the rb corps being hurt, that's why Jimmy gets paid so well; to show up in those moments, and he can't. We may not know Trey's true abilities at this moment, but I am not convinced they he can't at least do the bare minimum of what Jimmy has done all while gaining game experience. My stance on Jimmy would he the same even if they would've won. Although he gets credit for that last td drive, but if Sanu wouldn't have caught that badly thrown ball, it's no telling if they would've even scored a td.

 

[lightweight champion]

But this isnt evidence though. Because there is no way of proving that the results that any rookie QB had wouldnt be the exact same results if he was handled differently.

Lets look at Mahomes since he is the most recent success story. The idea that he is what he is because he sat for a year is 100% hypothetical. No one can prove one way or the other that he wouldnt have had similar success if he started day 1, because he DIDNT start day 1.

You talk about 27 have been busts or change teams or whatever. What evidence is there that the Christian Ponders of the world would have been a better QB if he didnt play his first season? You cant, because it didnt happen. Its 100% hypothesis.

Like I said before, if the sure fire BEST way to develop a quarterback is not to play him his first year, then NO ONE would play their rookie QB their first year. Period. If that was the best way to do it, then you are basically saying almost 100% of teams were CHOOSING to develop their QB in a way that is known to not be the best way. Thats essentially what you are arguing.

It's called empirical data, and the empirical data shows that only 4 QBs in the last 10 drafts are thriving with the team that selected them and chose not to sit them.

 

[dland24]

It's called empirical data, and the empirical data shows that only 4 QBs in the last 10 drafts are thriving with the team that selected them and chose not to sit them.

Understood. Very few rookie QBs are drafted in as good of a situation as Lance has been. I just dont think you can look at other situations and form judgements, because you never know what would have happened if the opposite situation happened.

 

[lightweight champion]

I don't hate Jimmy at all. But for 27 mill a year on a team with a pretty good receiving corps and arguably the best TE in football, I don't expect them to struggle to get past the 50 in the first half like they have done the last 2 games. Most of those issues were because of Jimmy. Throwing too high, interception, throwing to receivers short of the line to gain and expecting them to get the additional yards needed. Kyle needing to protect him so he doesn't do panic and do something dumb etc... Also, I don't care about the rb corps being hurt, that's why Jimmy gets paid so well; to show up in those moments, and he can't. We may not know Trey's true abilities at this moment, but I am not convinced they he can't at least do the bare minimum of what Jimmy has done all while gaining game experience. My stance on Jimmy would he the same even if they would've won. Although he gets credit for that last td drive, but if Sanu wouldn't have caught that badly thrown ball, it's no telling if they would've even scored a td.

Aside from the TD pass to Sherfield in the preseason, what has he shown to anyone that he is ready to supplant Jimmy? Because from what I saw, he looked completely lost. We are going to lose a lot more games this year if we throw Lance to the wolves. Also, just to remind everyone, tanking this season will not get us anywhere. We do not have our first round picks next year or the year after. So what happens if we get a shellshocked rookie QB like Justin Fields who develops happy feet and becomes paranoid of the opposing pass rush? We're stuck with him at minimum for the next 3 years before we have another 1st round pick. For this season, I'd rather take the lumps with Jimmy.

 

[cedric ceballos]

I think when you’re looking at qb’s who’ve succeeded and failed in terms of starting right away vs sitting for a bit. There’s variables you gotta factor in. You gotta look at each organization, offensive coordinators, coaching, roster and coaching turnover etc and look at why they succeeded or failed. It’s hard to look at it simply as this guy was a bust, he sucks. What did the organization do or not do to build around their guy. You have some teams who seem like they’re always bad. I couldn’t blame a top rookie qb for wanting no part of those organizations. You have your Ryan Leafs and Jamarcus Russell’s. But you can also make the case the organization failed some of these guys and it’s reflective in these teams always having top picks in the draft.

You have some organizations who draft first round qb’s every few years it seems, anointing franchise savior after franchise savior and these guys don’t pan out and the organization doesn’t learn a thing.

Trey Lance is ultimately going to the best situation out of all the top qb’s this year. This isn’t the 2002 Texans with one of the worst offensive lines in nfl history. They’re not going to ruin him by pushing him.

 

[lightweight champion]

Understood. Very few rookie QBs are drafted in as good of a situation as Lance has been. I just dont think you can look at other situations and form judgements, because you never know what would have happened if the opposite situation happened.

I'll agree that on paper Lance is on a better roster. But he's got no running game to rely on. You can argue that he is the running game. Which further cements my position in sitting him because I do not want our future franchise QB suffering any unnecessary major injuries.

 

[dland24]

Aside from the TD pass to Sherfield in the preseason, what has he shown to anyone that he is ready to supplant Jimmy? Because from what I saw, he looked completely lost. We are going to lose a lot more games this year if we throw Lance to the wolves. Also, just to remind everyone, tanking this season will not get us anywhere. We do not have our first round picks next year or the year after. So what happens if we get a shellshocked rookie QB like Justin Fields who develops happy feet and becomes paranoid of the opposing pass rush? We're stuck with him at minimum for the next 3 years before we have another 1st round pick. For this season, I'd rather take the lumps with Jimmy.

Do you seriously not see the difference between starting on a **** team with a terrible offensive line, limited weapons and an awful playcaller and starting on this 49er team? Peter King was on the radio a couple hours ago and he literally said that if Fields was playing on the 49ers, he would expect him to look substantially better than he did this weekend.