OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[johnnyredstorm]

Depends on your expiration but yeah I'd feel more comfortable keeping an eye on things throughout the day regardless of expiration. When I trade options im usually putting in a dollar amount I can tolerate losing if the thing goes to 0. Options may not be for someone that doesn't have the time to check in on those premium levels. Even a back month Id wanna be aware of throughout the day.

 

[wizards23]

FXCM fml

 

[johnnyredstorm]

it happens bro. you'll bounce back, you're a good trader.

following some order flow, been watching EBAY April 60s since paper originally bought them over a buck last week or so, just grabbed a 5 lot for .66. wanted to get long PayPal.

grabbed some T Feb 31 lotto puts for .15, just a 10 lot.

i'm in some UNG April 11 puts at .23 that are doing well today. bought a 10 lot last week. hopefully the trend continues.

i'm in some SCCO March 21 puts from a .45 average that are shaky. think i have 15. wanted to get short copper, but SCCO actually is one of the better copper companies from what it seems so meh. followed paper let's see if it works in time.

CTRL has been meh. i would've been adding down here if i didn't build most of my position between 1.20 and 1.30. don't wanna take on much more risk in that one.

Grabbed a 5 lot of BITA Feb 45 puts for .40. Broke into value for the year, point of control is at 40. Wanna get short this name and China.

 

[based mod]

FXCM fml

What a roller coaster :x

Where'd you get out of your short?

 

[based mod]

> jan 20

before

BHI - Baker Hughes
DAL - Delta Air
HAL - Halliburton
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson
MS - Morgan Stanley
SAP - SAP

after

AMD - Advance Micro Devices
CREE - Cree
IBM - IBM
NFLX - Netflix


> JAN 21

before

UNH - United Health
USB - US Bancorp

after

AXP - American Express
DFS - Discover Financial Services
E BAY - e Bay
FFIV - F5 Networks
SNDK - Sandisk
XLNX - Xilinx


> Jan 22

before

ALK - Alaska Air
AVT - Avnet
JCI - Johnson Controls
LUV - Southwest Air
UNP - Union Pacific
VZ - Verizon

after

ALTR - Altera Corp
SBUX - Starbucks
SWKS - Skyworks Solutions

 

[wizards23]

I covered 4.18 so the damage was about 1500 bucks

 

[johnnyredstorm]

had an offer out on UNG puts and got filled. 38 exit from .23 entry, made 126 bucks. i'll take it.

im gonna hold my Ebay calls through earnings i think unless it catches a nice bid here. they're Aprils so the vol crush shouldn't be terrible.

added 5 more BITA feb 45 puts at .30, full size now with 10 total.

some nice UOA in EWG april 30s grabbed 10 lot at .30. normally don't like ETFs since uoa in them could be hedges against individual names, but this looks like a play on the news coming out in Europe tomorrow. willing to take the chance here.

 

[kings castle]

Just started up a practice account with RBC Direct Investing. I'm hoping the learning process isn't too difficult. I find the jargon makes it a bit more difficult for me to comprehend certain aspects of trading.

 

[based mod]

Just started up a practice account with RBC Direct Investing. I'm hoping the learning process isn't too difficult. I find the jargon makes it a bit more difficult for me to comprehend certain aspects of trading.

Traders' vocab is overwhelming at first, but you'll get used to it pretty quick. Investopedia.com will be your friend starting out.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

guess i'll be bag holding EBAY till April. hopefully they have some PayPal noise before then.

edit: looking lil better now, hopefully it can hold this 53.50 level.

 

[bravelude]

DX like a G6, das all that matters.

 

[dannyb270]

Damn Netflix!! They killed it today! The CEO is an idiot though. He single handedly caused the stock price to plunge a littlw while back. I wouldn't invest

 

[johnnyredstorm]

took my EBAY calls off at .8 from .655 entry, 7 lot decent little profits. might pop some more with Icahn on TV later, but didn't wanna deal with any potential reversal headaches.

grabbed a 10 lot of SWHC feb 13 calls for .15. bit of a lotto play. above value for the month, inside of value for the year, could rotate to the top side of value around 14.

 

[degenerate423]

Thinking silver might hit $23 by April, debating on buying some calls .

 

[johnnyredstorm]

fwiw last week or so paper bought SLV july 19.5 calls for .55. those marking like .81 now, completely forgot about those after seeing the alert.

SLV trading above value for the month, inside of value for the year, but below the point of control (18.55) gets through that level should test the top of value at about 21. calls between 18.50 and 21 could be decent. maybe some july 21s for .50 or april 18.50s could work. july 21s look decent since there's a lot of time and if the trend continues, it can hit that 21 level by then. i'd only buy what i can afford to lose though so like a 5 lot. less aggressive bet would be taking the 18.50s since that point of control is usually a magnet but those will cost a little more. april 21s are cheap, marking a quarter, but not sure if 2-3 months is enough time. could work well and be worth the gamble who knows.

glad i bought a bunch of physical when it was around 15.

i'm bidding a quarter for the april 21s, 10 lot. see if i get filled if not, i might just bid for a 5 lot in the july 21s.

filled on the aprils. if i didn't mind paying lil more for less size, i'd get the 18.50s just for the deltas if it does rotate to the top of value for the year.

 

[andycrazn]

you know damn well that slv aint getting that run up without some smackdowns

 

[johnnyredstorm]

you know damn well that slv aint getting that run up without some smackdowns

View media item 1364744
you're probably right

 

[degenerate423]

april 21s are cheap, marking a quarter, but not sure if 2-3 months is enough time. could work well and be worth the gamble who knows.

glad i bought a bunch of physical when it was around 15.

Yeah, gotta take order on the physicals when you can.

I may take the SLV 21s for APR. My only concern is some good news coming out that has people unloading metals .

 

[johnnyredstorm]

oil looks like it wants to test that recent swing low of 44.30. gonna be watching that level before i start back into USO calls. no rush to get countertrend here. prob flushes through it before snapping back.

 

[kickhead23]

I'm back into TSLA for the long-haul. Here we go

 

[rexmakesbeats]

anybody playing any earnings reports next week?

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Cool thing about subscribing to KeeneOnTheMarket is playing earnings everyday and learning their earnings trading plan. I'll be participating in some stuff next week, I'll post what's done in here for the bigger names.

I wanted to take a NFLX call into the earnings report since it was trading right below value for the year (350) and I thought it could make a move toward its point of control for the year (435). March 435 call was worth 2.50 at one point the day of the report. I wanted to grab just one but waited a little too long and didn't since NFLX ramped up some and I didn't wanna pay 3.50. Would've been an awesome trade. That call's worth over 20 bucks now. Vol crush wasn't too bad for March either. Should've pulled the trigger.

It's normally best to play earnings with spreads so you don't have to worry about vol crush as much but I just had that hunch about NFLX thanks to value areas.

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Cool thing about subscribing to KeeneOnTheMarket is playing earnings everyday and learning their earnings trading plan. I'll be participating in some stuff next week, I'll post what's done in here for the bigger names.

I wanted to take a NFLX call into the earnings report since it was trading right below value for the year (350) and I thought it could make a move toward its point of control for the year (435). March 435 call was worth 2.50 at one point the day of the report. I wanted to grab just one but waited a little too long and didn't since NFLX ramped up some and I didn't wanna pay 3.50. Would've been an awesome trade. That call's worth over 20 bucks now. Vol crush wasn't too bad for March either. Should've pulled the trigger.

It's normally best to play earnings with spreads so you don't have to worry about vol crush as much but I just had that hunch about NFLX thanks to value areas.

Excuse my newb to options but what is vol crush?

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Volatility crush. normally the week of an earnings report or catalyst event, that stock's options will be juiced with volatility since there's a lot of uncertaintity and speculation. After the news comes out, volatility will drop. So if I bought a call expiring three days after the earnings report, if the stock doesn't rip far enough, my call could actually lose money because of that decrease in volatility.

With NFLX this week's expiration, next weeks and February's had more volatility in them than March and Aprils so if I bought an out of the money call in January or feb, I probably wouldn't have seen that $18 gain that the March call experienced. Would've been more muted and potentially even a loser since I'm buying an inflated time bomb.

The way KOTM plays earnings, they buy the weekly expiration and they create a spread to offset the volatility crush and time decay. So like for instance, yesterday in SBUX they put on an 83.50-84.50 call spread expiring today for.28 per 1 lot. Max risk 28 bucks for every contract bought, max gain 72 bucks per contract bought. So you cap your proceeds somewhat but you have less to worry about and could just focus on the direction the stock is moving.

What they do is get the historical movement of a stock after its report, get the implied move (take the at the money straddle and add/subtract it to the stock's current price to get your upside and downside targets), take a look at the chart, and develop a plan with the best risk reward set up for where the stock could potentially go. It's not a perfect plan, but it works well when you trade a lot of plays a week since the risk-reward is in your favor usually. (Risking 30 bucks to make 70 or risking 30 to make 300 on a $3 wide butterfly, etc)

They rarely buy a naked option before a report since they don't wanna deal with vol crush and time decay and they want to be out of the option after the event. But that NFLX idea I just had that hunch since point of controls are usually magnets once you break into value areas.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

ZNGA garbage name but if you're into cheap trash, could be finding some life. broke above value for the month, may test the POC for the year at 2.88 gets through could rotate to the VAH for the year at 4.32. who knows with cheap stuff like this though how accurate things could be. basically a lotto idea at best.

only way i'd play it is by grabbing either a 5 lot of april 3.50 calls for .10 or some june 4 calls for .10. would only risk 50-100 bucks max on the idea since this company is **** and cheapies aren't the best use for value area.

Some price levels:

BIDU looks decent. wants to test the top of value for the month at 236.87. could get hot over there. needs to hold the POC of 230.61.

EXPE gets through 87.84 could test 89.88. needs to hold 86.59

GILD holds 104.86 could test 109.56

AMBA needs to hold 56.03, if not, could see 52.51

It's earnings season so be aware of the reporting dates for the companies you're trading. Charts/price levels could get thrown out the window during these periods.