OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[206to813]

For those that wanted more info on ROCK this video sums up their agtech business where they have cannabis exposure. Just a small part of their business portfolio.

Thanks for posting.
No question the industry is scratching the surface, just got to identify the winners. Same with gambling.

Doesn’t matter if the following is huge, what matters is their TAM, churn rate, sales growth and optionality. This isn’t a software company and you shouldn’t expect Nasdaq like gains.

now the numbers are good, analyst expectations of 30% growth next two years, positive EPS, software like GM’s at 70%, 20% operating margin. That’s a good company, no doubt. But it’s multiple is twice as big as LULU at 12.5X NTM sales. 3x as big as NKE.

FIGS looks like a solid company, profitable, growing, but it’s not a tech stock and shouldn’t carry the same valuation moving forward. So I’d temper expectations and be careful chasing. Like I said, 1/4-1/2 the size you want to have is fine, just don’t rush in thinking it’s going to $100 this year because, although that’s possible, it would mean the company is becoming overvalued (now if growth starts hitting 50%+ the narrative changes).

at a 6.95b MC, 30% revenue growth next two years, I think it’s fair to see this become a $12-15b company over the next 3 years.

if you like the company, set a bid at $36 and if you don’t want to miss out on a potential run, grab a starter

two tech IPOs I want to dive into: DOCS CFLT.

Man thanks for the due diligence
there’s too many companies that I love that will change the world that I don’t own enough shares in for me to invest in companies like that. I wear scrubs for work, I feel like I’m on shark tank when I say “I will be a customer, but not an investor” . Ima buy a pair soon…

I love this thread

 

[johnnyredstorm]

This growth numbers are very good, this is a strong company fundamentally and not a bad investment. Just dont overvalue it in your head and think it'll move like a tech stock long term, because it shouldn't. but it's a very solid company that's profitable.

Your TAM seems limited and active customers makes this a niche market that relies on churn to push sales, not customer expansion. $12B TAM isn't a lot but...39% CAGR in spite of that is fantastic.

 

[turbospartan]

crazy about Figs... my buddy (who is an OR doc) and I had this idea like 5+ years ago (better material scrubs, with stretch, and cooler colors and cuts...). Damn it.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

2% penetration gives them a long runway too. I’d up my price target to 15-20B in 3-5 years. From 7b today, that’s basically a 3x, not a bad company to own.

 

[ballinsam23]

Don’t like the Nike and Lulu comparison. We’re comparing athletes (to be super broad here) and the most recognized brand in the world to a company that caters to only young health care professionals. Very very small room for actual growth.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

You have to look at TAM and penetration, then justify if it deserves a multiple greater than the other two based on growth rate. If penetration increases to 10% that’s $1.2b in revs, basically a 5x from where it is today.

if they grow 30% the next 3 years you have revs of (Quick math)
338m 21
439m 22
570m 23

Which is about 5% penetration of their TAM

Not bad at all but again we can’t get carried away

 

[truss]

solid entry for $vuzi right now

 

[superantigen]

I was hoping DIS would continue to trend down but ishh rallied upwards towards the end of the week.


...

 

[ksteezy]

As someone who appreciates fashion and happen to work in healthcare for the past 17 years, I can’t stress how much a brand like this was needed, like ya don’t understand how CRAPPY actual hospital scrubs have been for decades, like who even designed these things, straight up cardboard...btw Figs doesn’t just sell scrubs, they sell activewear mostly for the ladies for now, they sell jackets and fleeces, hats, face masks and even came out with their own face shields and sneakers, the company really has room to grow and expand and I can foresee other brands doing collaborations with them just like New Balance has, specially in a post pandemic world where healthcare workers were highlighted so much....I practically live in these things and have just about every color dropped...helps i was brought on board last year to be an ambassador, least I get a decent discount on them Their joggers are legit unmatched.

 

[ksteezy]

Don’t want to come off as some random shiller for this stock, I am truly in love with the brand and their business motto, their CEO and Co-CEO would legit get on zoom calls with their ambassadors, set up focus groups to hear out healthcare workers and their needs, they’ve donated THOUSANDS of scrubs to hospitals outside the US, they’ve paid for mission trips for their dental ambassadors to go abroad for weeks to provide dental care for kids in Haiti and other places...the list goes on, this company has a LOYAL customer base, they’ve had a few hiccups and lapse of judgement in some campaigns that offended some people, but they made it right....any company where the founder is on the ground level sending out personal emails like she’s one of their marketers, I’m gonna support all the way....pretty much 80% of my port at this moment and I’m holding on for a couple of years.

 

[southernhospita]

As someone who appreciates fashion and happen to work in healthcare for the past 17 years, I can’t stress how much a brand like this was needed, like ya don’t understand how CRAPPY actual hospital scrubs have been for decades, like who even designed these things, straight up cardboard...btw Figs doesn’t just sell scrubs, they sell activewear mostly for the ladies for now, they sell jackets and fleeces, hats, face masks and even came out with their own face shields and sneakers, the company really has room to grow and expand and I can foresee other brands doing collaborations with them just like New Balance has, specially in a post pandemic world where healthcare workers were highlighted so much....I practically live in these things and have just about every color dropped...helps i was brought on board last year to be an ambassador, least I get a decent discount on them Their joggers are legit unmatched.

Damn to bad I’m not doing phlebotomy anymore I would have enjoyed these

was wack wearing scrubs with sneakers
Looking like boot cut jeans

 

[ksteezy]

Damn to bad I’m not doing phlebotomy anymore I would have enjoyed these

was wack wearing scrubs with sneakers
Looking like boot cut jeans

i feel your pain, before this brand, everybody was looking HURT at work

 

[ballinsam23]

These are by far the best scrubs I’ve ever owned too. I have about 4 pairs in rotation. Hopefully it makes people money, I still can’t see it being anything more than what it is today. Unless they start making uniforms for students and other professions I really don’t know if there is much growth here.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Charts I’m looking at for this week

Charts to Watch 6/28-7/2

If you’ve been following me on Twitter for a while, you’ll know I like to post chart updates with some set ups I’m eying each week. Sometimes I trade the idea, sometimes I don’t. This isn’t meant to be any financial advice of any sort, instead, it should be looked at as a weekly update of some...

satoshialien.substack.com

 

[dman14]

...

 

[dman14]

...

 

[So Much Sole 23]

johnnyredstorm Thanks For Sharing

Anyone Else Playing These WISH Call Options?

These July 9 $20 Calls Are Looking Kinnda JUICY

 

[Zo gif]

$WISH to the moon (30+)

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Trimmed FSLY to a 3.8% position. Was twice as big as that. Outtage concerns me slightly if customers decrease their usage moving forward. This is a perspective move. Added more DOCN w some of the money. Have some cash still

 

[freshpairs]

Anyone have a espp option at their job? Mine offers 15% off. I’m reading it’s an easy finesse to max out my yearly buy of 25k and sell it right away. Come out 15% more than when I bought it. Does it really work that easy?

 

[iheartboost]

Woke up to all green in port... oh ****, haven't seen this much green in my port since March. I'm sure it will all burn off in the next hour lol

 

[broncos19dm]

I see trees of green...

I hope this energy continues!

 

[johnnyredstorm]

This is why when everyone is ecstatic you’re in the cut doing your research and getting levels for where you want to add on a pull back and correction. And when it hits, this is why you’re able to slam the ask to get the size you want. Let other people lose their ****, we use their volatility to create alpha.

i see nothing worth buying so I’ll be getting ready for a pull back to throw some cash in.

 

[theknowledgeableprofessor]

crazy about Figs... my buddy (who is an OR doc) and I had this idea like 5+ years ago (better material scrubs, with stretch, and cooler colors and cuts...). Damn it.

figs getting cancelled by a lot Of people tho because of a social media post of a”dumb women nurse”

 

[theknowledgeableprofessor]

Don’t like the Nike and Lulu comparison. We’re comparing athletes (to be super broad here) and the most recognized brand in the world to a company that caters to only young health care professionals. Very very small room for actual growth.

and idk why people in healthcare would use expensive scrubs. You soil them, gotta trash them. At least I do