OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY THREAD VOL. SCHOOL'S OUT

[finnns2003]

Yikes, if this is what you really think.

On that note: This market is scaring the ish out of me. Too much volatility with low volume. IPO bubble happening, this P2P lending bubble, this credit bubble, VIX has gone from 12 to 16 etc. We're due for a correction soon. It's going to get UGLY people.

There's too much leverage in the system right now and once rates go up, people will be caught with their pants down. This is the type of hit that happens so fast, most people don't see it coming. I've seen this movie before. Trust me, it doesn't end well.

I thought about Fed rates and all of that happening in the next year, and the crazy run we've been on, and for that reason, I'm out

/sharktank

 

[Hank Scorpio]

If a company like this--http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/08/fifthstreetassetmanagement-ipo-idUSL3N0R924520140908 can get MAJOR underwriters that's very indicative of whats happening.

Here's another example: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/asset-manager-medley-management-files-for-a-150-million-ipo-cm381327

This bubble is about to pop and our scalps are within distance.

Blackstone IPO was the climax of the 2008 bubble and Ali Baba IPO is the climax for this bubble.

Here's some insight for people who are unaware of the P2P bubble I was referring to earlier: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d6903c54-4447-11e4-8abd-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3EpaRUfhe

 

[finnns2003]

If a company like this--http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/08/fifthstreetassetmanagement-ipo-idUSL3N0R924520140908 can get MAJOR underwriters that's very indicative of whats happening.

Here's another example: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/asset-manager-medley-management-files-for-a-150-million-ipo-cm381327

This bubble is about to pop and our scalps are within distance.

Blackstone IPO was the climax of the 2008 bubble and Ali Baba IPO is the climax for this bubble.

Here's some insight for people who are unaware of the P2P bubble I was referring to earlier: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d6903c54-4447-11e4-8abd-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3EpaRUfhe

Recommendations for reducing exposure to the storm?

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't give out trading strategies on NT or to people in general. It's not what I do professionally. I just happen to pay close attention to the market, because I work in Private Equity and it does have some correlation to the investments and options my group looks into. It's a totally different game on the buy-side.

 

[wizards23]

Wait so you're telling me trading with the trend is not a proven time tested strategy Hank Scorpio ? I'm sorry but as an active trader it has paid well for myself and many others currently and throughout history. That quote actually comes from a very wealthy Japanese trader that goes by the alias CIS. If you read through the thread a little more instead of skimming it, I have been calling for a top for a while. I even posted my TVIX trades here and TSLA short plan. After a big run up the momentum leaders will fall the hardest. But hey if you want to selectively read and criticize to each his own my friend

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Just have a plan if you're worried about the market rolling over. Don't fight the trend if you see a series of lower highs, don't try and catch a falling knife, respect your stops, etc. Manage your risk and be patient. If you're ready for it and we do correct, man it could be a fun time for trading.

I like to use the ichimoku cloud as a guide, and I won't get too bearish until we break the cloud and trade beneath it for a while.

The dips in the past have been bought up but the market wasn't as extended. This is a thin cloud right now and thin clouds could produce traps, but I'll still be using it as a guide along with price action.

Having said that, I've put on a couple of small short positions to anticipate that potential breakdown as a hedge. I fat fingered that SPY put fly (the measured move target for the 31st called for a 194-192-190 fly) but I think I'll be ok if we do trade lower. I don't think it'll be a huge flush, maybe some chop and lower highs.

I've got a put fly in TSLA for this week as well 240-237.50-235 so we'll see how that works. 240 has been support past few days.

Just have a plan and manage your risk and you'll be ok.

 

[based mod]

TKMR back at it

 

[wizards23]

Yea TKMR prob a gap up and SRPT also

 

[johnnyredstorm]

These Ebola stocks are funny.

I took off SRPT a while ago. Watch it double now.

 

[wizards23]

SRPT been coiled up for months. Could run big if it gets into the gap or could be a nice short of it gets rejected

 

[bwrestler15]

For my schools investment club, we are looking to expand our knowledge from well known stocks to some lesser known companies. Any lesser known companies you guys are watching right now? Not looking for penny stocks.

 

[wizards23]

HIMX ISRG ACHN AVNR TASR JASO IG are a few tickers off the top of my head to look into. I have no idea if they are good fundamental investments since I'm a short term technical trader. Matter of fact if you go on my blog and look through the past couple weeks of watch lists you will find a bunch. Good luck

 

[johnnyredstorm]

RTGN if it ever finds some volume could move. KOPN could be of interest for your class. CODE has had a bunch of unusual options activity.

Looking at this F monthly, if you like this company/sector could be a decent buying opportunity. I'm not big on this sector but F is the kinda stock you could buy on weakness if you have a longer timeframe. Would like to see this hold that 13.50 level if it does continue dipping.

Got filled on a SODA Jan 40-45 call spread for .30. Just a 10 lot since these are basically lottos that this gets taken over. Been wanting to take the gamble here since its decent risk reward (46 has been a rumored takeout price), high short interest and there's always chatter. Maybe one day I get lucky. If not, not much skin off my ***.

 

[based mod]

FNMA back on its way to 1?

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Wait so you're telling me trading with the trend is not a proven time tested strategy Hank Scorpio ? I'm sorry but as an active trader it has paid well for myself and many others currently and throughout history. That quote actually comes from a very wealthy Japanese trader that goes by the alias CIS. If you read through the thread a little more instead of skimming it, I have been calling for a top for a while. I even posted my TVIX trades here and TSLA short plan. After a big run up the momentum leaders will fall the hardest. But hey if you want to selectively read and criticize to each his own my friend

I can see where you're coming from, but it's not something I would see myself doing comfortably. We all have our ways of trading and I personally don't think trading with trends is always the way to go. There's many reason why I wouldn't do it, but the first to come to mind would be to hedge against unsubstantial momentous behavior. Humans are almost "programmed" to follow what other humans do. The way I see it is if everyone is doing the same thing, why should I do it? I guess, I can understand your point of view, considering you're a short-term trader. The rules are little different for you guys.

Just have a plan if you're worried about the market rolling over. Don't fight the trend if you see a series of lower highs, don't try and catch a falling knife, respect your stops, etc. Manage your risk and be patient. If you're ready for it and we do correct, man it could be a fun time for trading.

I like to use the ichimoku cloud as a guide, and I won't get too bearish until we break the cloud and trade beneath it for a while.

Again, everyone has their own approach to trading. I personally think technical analysis is hogwash and is a bunch of made-up mumbo jumbo. Then again, there's tons of people out there who swear by it and has made a lot of money doing so.

Personally, I prefer to look at things in a fundamental sense. I don't like to use charts or numbers. Lord knows I don't like to over-complicate my life, let alone how I trade

I've always believed that the simple approach is the best one and people have a habit of "getting lost" by over analyzing too much. IDK, maybe it's the investment banker in me that's talking. I'd rather go with my gut than what see happening on a chart.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

It all comes down to your time frame. Day trading, technical analysis is vital, swing trading/investing you need fundamentals just as much if not more.

 

[bronconation24]

Should I take my shares out of under armour? Lookin to jump ship to Nike. Both companies ytd is good.

 

[wizards23]

Ok I see your angle better Hank Scorpio now and I respect it. Thanks for clarifying. I feel this bull market is going to come crashing down sometime, maybe soon. Who knows at this point with all the artificial pumping. If /ES breaks 1890 we will have a change in trend. We are still in an up trending market. I feel right now that too many people are calling this the top for it to actually be the end of the bull market. That's my gut feeling but I would not be upset if I am wrong and we get some bear action

FNMA :x
Grateful I got out a while ago. It would suck to be bagholding that

 

[bangdak]

Everyone knows that the market will eventually correct, the question is when.

At the moment, the market has shown no signs of slowing down, especially after the S&P hitting over 2000 points, consecutive highs in September, etc.

All I know is that when the market does correct, it will be a strong one. But hey, what do I know. I don't trade for a living

 

[supere14]

I'm looking to get into investing. Are there any recommended titles to read o articles to go through?

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Start off by going through the past 20 pages of this thread. Similar questions get asked weekly so there's been a bunch of book recommendations/material posted throughout.

Off the top of my head:
Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor
Jesse Livermore's book
William O'Neill's book
Brian Shannon's Technical Analysis and Using Multiple Time Frames
Cloud Charts by David Linton

Learn your time frame and bust your *** studying. This game is all about managing your risk. Learn how to do it and instill positive habits from the get go. Create a plan, follow it and respect your stops and you won't need to worry about emotions or fear.

TSLA gapping up nicely off that Model D news. My put fly will likely expire worthless unless it goes g/r today, which is possible. Lesson here is to maybe have used a put spread since it's easier to get filled at the target before expiration than a butterfly. Had an offer out yesterday for .58 but no luck.

Some GPRO news. Figured a secondary or something would happen at these highs. Founders released early from lock-up restriction:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Inside...82M+Post-IPO+Lock-Up+Restriction/9879491.html

Let's see how much this dilutes the stock these next two days or if buyers come in here regardless.

Edit: I saw this in FEYE and we're seeing this in GPRO right now. They ramp the stock all the way up just to unload shares on you. You always gotta be aware of these IPOs and their lock up info/potential for secondary offerings. So important to have a plan and know your max pain.

 

[based mod]

I'd be sitting pretty if I'd pulled the trigger on those GPRO puts >:

Sorry to hear about your TSLA put spread JRS. I'm still holding some shares from 200ish so I'm happy about the news. Kicking myself for not unloading at 280 though

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Same here Based. I came close to buying some GPRO puts this morning but didn't gotta pull the trigger and trust one's intuition.

The good thing about spreads, I'm only gonna lose $200 if TSLA stays above 240, but if I pinned it tomorrow, I could've made over a g. Lesson learned since it was a tight fly (for TSLA) to begin with, I'm better off using a simple spread with the measured move target. Who knows, with the way the market is selling off I might catch a break tomorrow. I honestly wouldn't mind getting long this name on any big pullback.

I rolled out of that SPY fly for a commission burner into a Nov 22 183-185-187 for .07. At the money straddle is around 8.80. This hedge makes more sense overall for me.

 

[dathbgboy]

I was gon put a sell limit on GPRO but didn't, woke up late and felt the burn. Broke even less my transaction fee

 

[wizards23]

TSLA got the move into 250s to open short position. Started small since markets are due for a bounce soon imo

GPRO !!