[h1]Lower expectations in store for Warriors in draft lottery[/h1]
Jake Curtis, Chronicle Staff Writer
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
(05-19) 19:27 PDT -- Warriors fans ignoring the laws of probability might get butterflies before today's NBA lottery, excited by the notion that Golden State could land the No. 1 draft pick and a player who could turn the team into a contender.
Those with any mathematics background know better than to start ordering tickets for the NBA Finals, because the Warriors' chances of getting the No. 1 pick are 1-in-200. Furthermore, they have less than a 1-in-50 chance of landing one of the top three picks.
The simple fact is, the Warriors have more than a 98 percent chance of winding up with the 14th overall selection, which is the last of the so-called lottery picks
Instead of musing about how Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose or O.J. Mayo would look in a Warriors uniform, it makes more sense to consider the relative merits of lesser-known players - such as JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos or Nicolas Batum - who might be around at No. 14.
Here's a look at the top prospects, grouped according to the likelihood they'll wear a Warriors jersey next season:
[h3]Forget about them[/h3]
The likely first and second overall picks, if not in this order:
Michael Beasley, 6-foot-9, power forward, Kansas State, age 19: Beasley's productivity is so effortless it sometimes seems he isn't going all out. NBA comparison: Carmelo Anthony.
Derrick Rose, 6-4, point guard, Memphis, 19: A versatile player with unusual strength for his position. NBA comparison: Jason Kidd.
[h3]In your dreams[/h3]
These players should be gone by pick No. 10:
O.J. Mayo, 6-4, point guard/shooting guard, USC, 20: He can play either guard position, can score in a variety of ways and has an NBA body. NBA comparison: Brandon Roy.
Brook Lopez, 7-0, center, Stanford, 20: The best center in the draft, Lopez can score, and he runs well for his size. NBA comparison: Chris Kaman.
Jerryd Bayless, 6-3, point guard, Arizona, 19: Excellent scorer who can penetrate or shoot from distance, but is not a true point guard. NBA comparison: Gilbert Arenas.
Eric Gordon, 6-2, point guard/shooting guard, Indiana, 19: Gordon has an NBA body and he can score on anybody. NBA comparison: Ray Allen.
[h3]Just out of reach?[/h3]
Players who could available if the Warriors trade up, or the players move down:
Kevin Love, 6-9, power forward, UCLA, 19: He has great fundamentals and has every skill, but lacks quickness and length. NBA comparison: Carlos Boozer.
Danilo Gallinari, 6-9, small forward, Italy, 19: The best international player in the draft, Gallinari has point-guard skills in a long, athletic body. NBA comparison: Hedo Turkoglu.
Anthony Randolph, 6-10, small forward, LSU, 18: Remarkably agile for his size, Randolph is oozing potential, but could be a bust. NBA comparison: Pao Gasol.
[h3]Most likely Warriors[/h3]
Top players who might be available at No. 14:
D.J. Augustin, 5-11, point guard, Texas, 20: Size is the only question with Augustin, the consummate point guard. NBA comparison: Jameer Nelson.
Russell Westbrook, 6-4, point guard/shooting guard, UCLA, 19: Good defender and excellent athlete who made vast improvement this year. NBA comparison: Leandro Barbosa.
DeAndre Jordan, 7-0, center, Texas A&M, 19: Varying opinions on Jordan, who has an NBA body but produced little as a freshman. NBA comparison: Kendrick Perkins.
JaVale McGee, 7-0, center, Nevada, 20: Long, athletic big man with loads of potential. NBA comparison: Andrew Bynum.
Joe Alexander, 6-8, small forward, West Virginia, 21: Improving, athletic wing man who might withdraw from the draft. NBA comparison: Tom Gugliotta.
Donte Green, 6-10, small forward, Syracuse, 20: Versatile scorer with potential. NBA comparison: Rashard Lewis.
Nicolas Batum, 6-8, small forward, France, 19: Raw, but skilled and athletic, with a chance to be special; could be the sleeper of the draft. NBA comparison: Rudy Gay.
Darrell Arthur, 6-9, power forward, Kansas, 20: Athletic big man who might thrive outside Kansas' restrictive system. NBA comparison: Antonio McDyess.
Kosta Koufos, 7-1, center, Ohio State, 19: Skilled, though not particularly athletic, big man with excellent shooting range. NBA comparison: Mehmet Okur.
Chase Budinger, 6-7, shooting guard, Arizona, 20: Great athlete who can shoot and score. NBA comparison: Jason Richardson.
[h3]Keep in mind ...[/h3]
Players who could be surprise picks in the top 14:
Alexis Ajinca, 7-1, center, France, 20: A skinny player with limited experience who might withdraw from the draft, but has the athleticism and intensity to be a star. NBA comparison: Kevin Garnett.
Robin Lopez, 7-0, center, Stanford, 20: Though still raw offensively, Lopez is a better athlete than twin brother Brook, and could be better than his brother in five years. NBA comparison: Anderson Varejao.
Jason Thompson, 6-11, power forward, Rider, 21: Mobile big man who can score but played against mediocre competition. NBA comparison: Joe Smith.
Nathan Jawai, 6-10, center, Australia, 21: An intriguing long-shot pick who has risen quickly as a physical inside player but has a long way to go. NBA comparison: Shaquille O'Neal.
Richmond, Warriors hope to make history in lottery.
C3
[h3]NBA draft-lottery probabilities[/h3]
Here are the odds the Warriors, slotted 14th, face in trying to land the No. 1 pick in today's pingpong ball bonanza:
Team | Chances | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | Pick 3 |
Miami | 250 | 25.00% | 21.47% | 17.72% |
Seattle | 199 | 19.90% | 18.78% | 17.07% |
Minnesota | 138 | 13.80% | 14.24% | 14.54% |
Memphis | 137 | 13.70% | 14.16% | 14.48% |
New York | 76 | 7.60% | 8.44% | 9.47% |
L.A. Clippers | 75 | 7.50% | 8.33% | 9.37% |
Milwaukee | 43 | 4.30% | 4.93% | 5.77% |
Charlotte | 28 | 2.80% | 3.26% | 3.87% |
Chicago | 17 | 1.70% | 2.00% | 2.40% |
New Jersey | 11 | 1.10% | 1.30% | 1.57% |
Indiana | 8 | 0.80% | 0.95% | 1.15% |
Sacramento | 7 | 0.70% | 0.83% | 1.01% |
Portland | 6 | 0.60% | 0.71% | 0.87% |
Warriors | 5 | 0.50% | 0.59% | 0.72% |
[h3]NBA draft lottery[/h3]
When: 5 p.m.
Where: Secaucus, N.J.
TV: ESPN
[h3]Lots o' luck[/h3]
-- Of the 16 times the Warriors have been in the lottery, they have improved their pre-draft position three times.
-- They have dropped seven times.
-- They have stayed in position six times.
-- The lowest-slotted team to move into one of the top three spots was Charlotte in 1999. The Hornets were in the 13th position but ended up with the No. 3 pick (choosing Baron Davis).