[h2]
Warriors draft: The case for avoiding a big man/possible bust at No. 14[/h2]
By Tim Kawakami
Tuesday, May 27th, 2008 at 7:23 am in
NBA,
Warriors.
The Warriors have tried and tried, but they have not drafted an All-Star big man since… Do you know the answer to this one?
-Answer: It's not Patrick O'Bryant, Ike Diogu, Adonal Foyle, Todd Fuller, Joe Smith, Clifford Rozier or Victor Alexander (or Tellis Frank, Chris Washburn or Russell Cross)…
-Real answer: It's
Chris Webber in 1992, and I'm sort of cheating on that one since he was actually drafted by Orlando No. 1 and then immediately traded to the Warriors.
Also, Webber didn't make the All-Star team as a Warrior, of course-he made it five times altogether for Washington and Sacramento.
So actually, the last time a Warriors-drafted big man represented the Warriors in an All-Star game was
Joe Barry Carroll in 1982, a year-and-a-half after he was the main piece in the pre-draft trade that basically destroyed the Warriors for about 8 years.
Which leads me to a partial conclusion:
Unless they're sitting in the top 5-where you get great big men, like Kevin McHale or Dwight Howard-maybe the Warriors ought not to force themselves into drafting a big man.
Just a thought. I'm not saying
no way no how never ever… I stipulate these facts:
1) The Warriors definitely need a big man who can rebound and play fast; 2) They took Brandan Wright 8th last year-in a trade with Charlotte-and he could be very good but also maybe not; 3) They could trade up to get a shot at Kevin Love or somebody else; 4) There's a chance a good fast big man slips to 14 and if that happens consider this a wasted bunch of words.
(Last 10th-20th-picked big men to turn into very good NBA players: Andris Biedrins, who went 11th, Al Jefferson, who went 15th, and Josh Smith, who went 17th… all in the 2004 draft. Andrew Bynum, who went 10th in 2005, has a very good shot to be better than all of them but has been hurt.)
This is just one argument, a thought, something to chew on as the Warriors head into the grueling weeks of preparation with pick No. 14 in the June 26 NBA Draft.
By the way, I'm planning to present other sides and other arguments as we approach the pick. Such as:
The Case for Taking Any Big Man Who Can Help and
The Case for Absolutely Trading Up. These are just arguments to get a debate going.
But I'm starting with this one because it is a tough one to ignore, especially with the Warriors at 14 (an area in the draft where so many big-man reaches have been committed by them and almost every other franchise)…
And good players are what win the NBA. You need big players, but sometimes drafting as many good players as you can, even if they're mostly guards, helps you build the infrastructure to acquire big men (look at Detroit and the Lakers, neither of whom start any big men who were drafted by them-well I guess Darko Milicic was supposed to be starting for the Pistons, err, oopsie on that one Joe Dumars).
You just want as many good players as you can get. Especially if you're playing Don Nelson's style, because he only wants skilled players on the floor and big slugs kill his style.
You do need big men at some point, but you really don't want bad big men, as the Warriors have proven so often.
(Diogu 9th in 2005? The Warriors could've taken Danny Granger, Luther Head or Gerald Green. O'Bryant 9th in 2006? The Warriors could've taken Ronnie Brewer, Rajon Rando or Jordan Farmar.
(In the Diogu year, the Warriors got Monta Ellis with the 40th pick, 27 picks after Charlotte took Sean May.)
Sometimes when you try to force big men in picks 10-20, you get the opposite of good players.
For instance, there are interesting but potential bust-ola big men such as JaVale McGee, Darrell Arthur, Marreese Speights, Kosta Koufos and Robin Lopez sitting tantalizingly close to the Warriors' 14 slot in most mock drafts.
I'm not saying those guys-or any other non-Michael Beasley big man who might pop into the top 14-are guaranteed to go down the Foyle/Fuller Road.
I'm just making the argument that history tells us that you are far more likely to hit with a quality wing player in the 10 to 16 range in any given draft than you are to hit with a big man at the same spot. (Also see: historical list below.)
Some of the wing/guards who could be at 13-14-15 this year: Russell Westbrook, Joe Alexander, D.J. Augustin, Nicolas Batum, Chase Budinger, Donte Greene.
I'm not saying there's a sure-thing NBA producer in that group. But I'm saying it's more than likely that there are two or three good NBA players in the wing/guard group and it's very likely that there are two or three outright busts in the Likely Big Man Group.
*** Busts over the last five drafts like:
-O'Bryant, taken 9th in 2007. (I still think he could be OK, but he's clearly a Warriors bust since they won't play him.)
-C Saer Sene, taken one pick after POB by Seattle in 2006.
-F Ike Diogu, taken 9th by the Warriors in 2005.
-F Sean May, taken 13th by Charlotte in 2005.
-C Rafael Araujo, taken 8th by Toronto in 2004.
-C Robert Swift, taken 12th by Seattle in 2004.
-F Michael Sweetney, taken 9th by New York in 2003.
*** Compared to good NBA wing/guard producers in the same pick area…-G Rodney Stuckey, taken 15th overall by Detroit in 2007. (Watching Stuckey in these playoffs is what really got me going on this subject-very good guards can be found in the middle of the 1st. Stuckey was taken 6 picks behind Joakim Noah, who is big.)
-Ronnie Brewer, taken 14th overall by Utah in 2006. (13 picks behind No. 1 overall Andrea Bargnani, 5 behind POB, 4 behind Sene.)
-
Andre Igoudala, taken 9th overall by Philly in 2004. (1 pick behind Araujo.)
-
Josh Howard, taken 29th overall by Dallas in 2003. (12 picks behind Sweetney.)
That's just my short list of the last five years. Again, it proves nothing about this year, in particular. It's just an overview.
Specifically, it's about this question: If you're the Warriors, and you need a big man… would you rather end up with a Rodney Stuckey clone or another Robert Swift?
The odds are much better taking a guard-because sure-thing big men are almost always gone in the first 4 or 5 picks.
Just one argument. I'll make more. I'm sure you have more…
In the meantime, here's my subjective list of High-Quality Big Men and Non-Bigs and where they were taken, dating back to the 1992 draft:
*** Elite Big Men/
-Greg Oden: 2007, 1st overall. (Giving him benefit of the doubt.)-Al Horford: 2007, 3rd overall.
-LaMarcus Aldridge: 2006, 2nd overall.
-Dwight Howard: 2004, 1st overall.
-Josh Smith: 2004, 17th overall.
-Chris Bosh: 2003, 4th overall.
-Yao Ming: 2002, 1st overall.
-Amare Stoudemire: 2002, 9th overall.
-Carlos Boozer: 2002, 35th overall.
-Tyson Chandler: 2001, 2nd overall.
-Pau Gasol: 2001, 3rd overall.
-Kenyon Martin: 2000, 1st overall.
-Elton Brand: 1999, 1st overall.
-Lamar Odom: 1999, 4th overall.
-Dirk Nowitzki: 1998, 9th overall.
-Tim Duncan: 1997, No. 1 overall.
-Rasheed Wallace: 1995, 4th overall.
-Marcus Camby: 1996, 2nd overall.
-Jermaine O'Neal: 1996, 17th overall.
-Kevin Garnett: 1995, 5th overall.
-Chris Webber: 1992, No. 1 overall.
-Shaquille O'Neal: 1992, No. 1 overall.
-Alonzo Mourning: 1992, No. 2 overall.
Summary of the 23 players:
17 taken in first 4 picks.
1 taken 5th.
2 taken 9th.
2 taken 17th (both high school players who couldn't have come out under the new rules).
1 taken 35th.
*** Elite Non-Big Men since the 1992 draft/
-Kevin Durant: 2007, 2nd overall. Tall but a perimeter player
. -Brandon Roy, 2006: 6th overall.
-Deron Williams: 2005, 3rd overall.
-Chris Paul: 2005, 4th overall.
-LeBron James: 2003, 1st overall.
-Carmelo Anthony: 2003, 3rd overall.
-Dwyane Wade: 2003, 5th overall.
-Josh Howard: 2003, 29th overall.
-Tayshaun Prince: 2002, 23rd overall.
-Jason Richardson: 2001, 5th overall.
-Joe Johnson: 2001, 10th overall.
-Richard Jefferson: 2001, 13th overall.
-Tony Parker: 2001, 28th overall.
-Gilbert Arenas: 2001, 31st overall.
-Michael Redd: 2000, 43rd overall.
-Baron Davis: 1999, 3rd overall.
-Rip Hamilton: 1999, 7th overall.
-Andre Miller: 1999, 8th overall.
-Shawn Marion: 1999, 9th overall.
-Ron Artest: 1999, 16th overall.
-Andrei Kirilenko: 1999, 24th overall.
-Manu Ginobili: 1999, 57th overall.
-Mike Bibby: 1998, 2nd overall.
-Vince Carter: 1998, 5th overall.
-Paul Pierce: 1998, 10th overall.
-Chauncey Billups: 1997, 3rd overall.
-Tracy McGrady: 1997, 9th overall.
-Allen Iverson: 1996, 1st overall.
-Ray Allen: 1996, 5th overall.
-Kobe Bryant: 1996, 13th overall.
-Steve Nash: 1996, 15th overall.
-Peja Stojakovic: 1996, 14th overall.
-Michael Finley: 1995, 21st overall.
-Jason Kidd: 1994, 2nd overall.
-Grant Hill: 1994, 3rd overall.
-Penny Hardaway: 1993, No. 3 overall.
-Sam Cassell: 1993, No. 24 overall.
-Latrell Sprewell: 1992, 24th overall.
Summary of the 37 players:
12 selected in top 4 picks.
8 selected in picks 5-9.
7 selected in picks 10-16.
7 selected in picks 20-29.
3 selected in picks 30-57.
***
Major Busts (my definition: top-5 selection who isn't close to a star, top-15-selection who can't/didn't make a regular rotation) since the 1992 draft/
-2007 is too early to tell.
-Andrea Bargnani: 2006, taken 1st overall. Big man.
-Adam Morrison: 2006, taken 4th overall. Perimeter.
-Shelden Williams: 2006, taken 5th overall. Big man. (Nice top of that draft!)
-Patrick O'Bryant: 2006, taken 9th overall. Big man.
-Saer Sene: 2006, taken 10th overall. Big man.
-J.J. Redick: 2006, taken 11th overall. Perimeter. (TERRIBLE DRAFT!)
-Fran Vazquez: 2005, taken 11th overall. Big man. Never reported.
-Yaroslav Korolev: 2005, taken 12th overall. Perimeter.
-Sean May: 2005, taken 13th overall. Short but an inside player.
-Antoine Wright: 2005, taken 15th overall. Perimeter.
-Rafael Araujo: 2004, taken 8th overall. Big man.
-Luke Jackson: 2004, taken 10th overall. Perimeter.
-Robert Swift: 2004, taken 12th overall. Big man.
-Sebastian Telfair: 2004, taken 13th overall. Perimeter. (2004 stunk, too.)
-Kris Humphries: 2004, taken 14th overall. Pseudo-big man.
-Darko Milicic: 2003, taken 2nd overall. Big man.
-Michael Sweetney: 2003, taken 9th overall. Big man.
-Marcus Banks: 2003, taken 13th overall. Perimeter.
-Reece Gaines: 2003, taken 15th overall. Perimeter. Possibly the worst player on this whole list.
-Jay Williams: 2002, taken 2nd overall. Perimeter. Injured.
-Nikoloz Tskitishvili: 2002, taken 5th overall. Big man who played soft.
-Dajuan Wagner: 2002, taken 6th overall. Perimeter. Hurt.
-Marcus Haislip: 2002, taken 13th overall. Big man.
-Fred Jones: 2002, taken 14th overall. Perimeter.
-Bostjan Nachbar: 2002, taken 15th overall. Big man who plays soft.
-Kwame Brown: 2001, taken 1st overall. Big man.
-Eddie Griffin: 2001, taken 7th overall. Big man who played soft. My guy.
-Rodney White: 2001, taken 9th overall. Big man who played soft.
-Stromile Swift: 2000, taken 2nd overall. Big man.
-Darius Miles: 2000, taken 3rd overall. Perimeter.
-Marcus Fizer: 2000, taken 4th overall. Short but played on post.
-DerMarr Johnson: 2000, taken 6th overall. Perimeter. Got hurt.
-Chris Mihm: 2000, taken 7th overall. Big man.
-Jerome Moiso: 2000, taken 11th overall. Big man who played Charmin.
-Courtney Alexander: 2000, taken 13th overall. Perimeter.
-Mateen Cleaves: 2000, taken 14th overall. Perimeter.
-Jason Collier: 2000, taken 15th overall. Big man.
-Jonathan Bender: 1999, taken 5th overall. Big man who played soft.
-Trajan Langdon: 1999, taken 11th overall. Perimeter.
-Alexsandar Radojevic: 1999, taken 12th overall. Big man. Who is he? Toronto took him.
-William Avery: 1999, taken 14th overall. Perimeter.
-Frederic Weis: 1999, taken 15th overall. Big man.
-Michael Olowokandi: 1998, taken 1st overall. Big man.
-Keon Clark: 1998, taken 13th overall. Big man.
-Michael Dickerson: 1998, taken 14th overall. Perimeter. Houston took him and I had to double-check just now to believe it. Wow. Really, he was taken 14th.
-Adonal Foyle: 1997, taken 8th overall. Big man. Tough judgment, because he was a rotation guy for a long time, but also taken a pick before McGrady.
-Maurice Taylor: 1997, taken 14th overall. Perimeter.
-Lorenzen Wright: 1996, taken 7th overall. Pseudo-big man.
-Samaki Walker: 1996, taken 9th overall. Big man.
-Todd Fuller: 1996, taken 11th overall. Big man.
-Vitaly Potapenko: 1996, taken 12th overall. Big man. Selection before Kobe.
-Bryant Reeves: 1995, taken 5th overall. Big man.
-Shawn Respert: 1995, taken 8th overall. Perimeter.
-Ed O'Bannon: 1995, taken 9th overall. Perimeter.
-Gary Trent: 1995, taken 11th overall. Perimeter?
-Cherokee Parks: 1995, taken 12th overall. Pseudo-big man.
-Sharone Wright: 1994, taken 6th overall. Big man.
-Lamond Murray: 1994, taken 7th overall. Perimeter.
-Eric Montross: 1994, taken 8th overall. Big man.
-Carlos Rogers: 1994, taken 11th overall. Big man.
-Khalid Reeves: 1994, taken 12th overall. Perimeter.
-Yinka Dare: 1994, taken 14th overall. Big man.
-Shawn Bradley: 1993, taken 2nd overall. Big skinny man.
-Isaiah Rider: 1993, taken 5th overall. Perimeter.
-Calbert Cheaney: 1993, taken 6th overall. Perimeter.
-Bobby Hurley: 1993, taken 7th overall. Perimeter. Hurt.
-Terry Dehere: 1993, taken 13th overall. Perimeter.
-Scott Haskin: 1993, taken 14th overall. Big man.
-Doug Edwards: 1993, taken 15th overall. Perimeter.
-Christian Laettner: 1992, taken 3rd overall. Pseudo-big man.
-LaPhonso Ellis: 1992, taken 5th overall. Pseudo-big man.
-Todd Day: 1992, taken 8th overall. Perimeter.
-Adam Keefe: 1992, taken 10th overall. Pseudo-big man.
-Harold Miner: 1992, taken 12th overall. Perimeter.
-Bryant Stith: 1992, taken 13th overall. Perimeter.
Summary: I can't believe I went through the whole thing, but…
43 busts from the 1992-2006 drafts were big men/pseudo-big men.
32 were perimeter players.
That's the end. Can't believe you got through it all, if anybody did.
Interesting...
. robin is okay, he'd give us a nice postdefender but i'd only take him if all our other options are gone.
