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There are times when you can see precisely where a rumor starts, why it starts, and why it really and truly won't happen if you just look at it without agent-bias.
ESPN.com's Chad Ford, who is good at this, tossed out a few juicy ones this morning, but he seems to be getting some weird info about the Warriors these days. A little while after suggesting the Warriors desperately want Yi Jianlian from Milwaukee and would trade Brandan Wright plus their No. 14 to get him (Deeply, deeply wrong), Ford tossed out another one:
Ford said the Warriors could trade Wright (again?) and use their trade exception to take back Cleveland active power forward Anderson Varejao plus Cleveland's No. 19 pick.
Let me begin by saying: All due respect to Chad and his relationship with Dan Fegan, who conveniently is the agent for both Yi and Varejao and loves starting Warriors rumors, but THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN.
I know the Warriors' thinking on Wright: They think he's incredibly valuable to their future and think I'm crazy for dangling him in my own trade imaginings. This isn't like the Jason Richardson no-trade promise by Chris Mullin last summer-at some point, we all know he was saying that because he had to honor a prime veteran… until the moment he traded him.
That's not the situation with Wright. Mullin flat out thinks he can be a great player. I don't think they're misleading me about this. They are not contemplating trading Wright and they won't do so unless it could get them back a sure-thing forward (my interpretation) and that's not Varejao.
Put it in ink: The Warriors do not consider Varejao, who can't shoot, a major up-tick on the front line. He's not a Nellie-style forward, and really, could you play him with Biedrins? No way Nellie does that.
So you're taking back his salary, giving up your TE and your best young big man and getting back No. 19, which really doesn't help much (if you realize that 14 is going to be a non-starter, too) … to make Fegan and Ford happy? Nope.
Quicker summary: Why trade Wright for Varejao when the Warriors know they can get a player similar to or possibly better than Varejao with the 14th pick, anyway, (Robin Lopez, Marreese Speights, JaVale McGee) and then you don't have to take back the $12M Varejao is due over the next two seasons?
So how does a rumor like this get out? Or the Yi rumor? There's a similarity…
Let me spell it out: Yi is represented by Fegan, who wants his client in a bigger market. Varejao is represented by Fegan, who feuded with the Cavaliers over his restricted free-agent deal last year.
Dan creates atmospheres for trades by talking big about the trades he can swing for his clients. He basically invented the "Warriors-love-Yi" draft craze last summer, which I talked about with amazement at the time, since I was sure the Warriors were never as ga-ga over Yi as, for instance, they are now over Kevin Love (who they won't get).
This is just Dan Fegan Agenting 101-talk up a scenario in the hope it happens or just creates buzz about his player and maybe causes disruption in several organizations. It's fair game. It doesn't always work, especially if you can pinpoint his whisperings and motivations.
Dan talks to Ford, clearly. A lot. He likes goosing up interest in his players and he likes his players to get to the Warriors (Troy Murphy, Richardson, Arenas, for a while Barnes). He doesn't like Wright, because Wright's arrival screwed him in two ways-sent Richardson to Charlotte and blocked a path for other Fegan clients to take a forward spot with the Warriors.
Doesn't mean any of it is true. Now, could the Warriors talk about acquiring Varejao in some other deal that doesn't involve Wright? Yes. But they wouldn't give up much to get him. I doubt they'd give up the 14th pick to get Varejao and to do that they'd have to give up the TE. That's expensive.
I think they could do better. More importantly, Mullin thinks he can do better.
Sorry I went so long. Partly sorry for even doing this at all. I try not to jump in or shoot down every random trade rumor involving the Warriors, though I still do it from time to time if the rumor is particularly egregious or has eye-opening effects on Warriors Nation.
ESPN.com throwing out Wright + TE for Varejao + pick is one of those moments, I guess. Can't wait until the next Ford-Fegan combo offering.
When the Boston Celtics looked at their roster last summer, they saw one veteran around which they wanted to build the team. Paul Pierce, who had ridden out ups and downs as a career Celtic, became the cornerstone around which a championship squad was built. The Celtics made a decisive moves to abandon very promising youth - Al Jefferson and the #5 pick in a deep draft - in favor of veterans who had a track record of success. We all know how the gamble paid off. The Warriors face a similar crucial moment this off-season, making decisions about what pieces will form the building blocks of the team for years to come. As of June 19, 2008, with the draft still to come, the traded player exception still live, and our free agents yet to be signed, I think the Warriors should invert the Celtic's recipe for success. Rather than trade youth to build around experience, it's time for the Warriors to lay the foundation to support their youngsters when they reach their prime.
The ground rules before we stack hypothetical upon hypothetical: all trades must offer something to the other team; all free agents must be signed for roughly market rates; and buyouts have to be based on partial guarantees or the upper end of the going rate (80%). If I were sitting behind Chris Mullin's desk, here's what I'd do this off-season:
Step 1: Sign Monta and Andris - Given the Warriors good relations with Andris' agent and the shallow market for non-All Star players over the mid-level exception, I think the Warriors will get a bit of a discount on Andris. I'd sign him to a 5 year deal averaging $9 mil a year, putting his starting salary at roughly $7 million. Monta will be more expensive, particularly with Kevin Martin's contract setting a high precedent for high-scoring tweener guards. Despite rumblings from Memphis, I don't think the Grizzlies will be willing to break the bank for Ellis. If I'm the Warriors, I wait to see whether any offers float in, then negotiate a 5 year deal averaging $10 mil a year, putting his starting salary at roughly $8 million. Total 08-09 cap hit: $15 million. 09-10 cap hit: $17 million.
Step 2: Trade Al Harrington for Keith Van Horn, Trenton Hassell and the 08 First Rounder (#21) - With long-term money locked up in Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, along with a point guard entering his prime in Devin Harris, the Nets have too much talent to blow up the squad completely. Adding Harrington in exchange for filler and a pick would provide the Nets with a proven veteran to bolster their squad. Against the smaller east, Harrington could log minutes at power forward (after time at center last year, I'm sure he'd consider it a relief). He'd also likely be thrilled to play in his home state (until the team decamps to Brooklyn). As for the junk the Warriors take in return, only $3.75 mil of Van Horn's contract is guaranteed for 08-09 ($3.3 for 09-10). Hassell could be kept around at the end of the bench or bought out at an 80% rate. Assuming buyouts for both, the Warriors would take a cap hit of $7.4 million in 08-09 and $6.9 million in 09-10, saving them $1.9 and $2.6 million, respectively, compared to Harrington's deal.
Step 3: Draft Marreese Speights at 14 and Chris Douglas-Roberts at 21 - The Warriors fill two needs with their draft picks, a wide-body low post scorer and a long shooting guard. With both picks locked up for four guaranteed years, they'll have their feet under them in years 2 and 3 when Monta, Andris, and Wright are entering their prime. Both picks would also have other players in front of them next year, sheltering them from the pressure of being expected to contribute immediately. Total cap hit: $2.8 mil for 08-09 and $3.0 mil for 09-10.
Step 4: Trade $1.16 of the TPE and our 09 First Rounder for Kyle Lowry - Memphis turns its point guard most likely to be traded into a future first round pick, while shedding cap in the process. For a team still rumored to be on the block for sale, it's a neutral basketball move but smart subtraction financially. The Warriors don't miss the pick, already stocking up on youngsters in the 07 and 08 drafts. Lowry has a chance to audition for the starting point guard spot if/when Davis leaves and provides a spark-plug back-up so long as Davis sticks around. Total cap hit: $1.2 mil in 08-09 and $2.0 mil in 09-10.
Step 5: Spend the mid-level exception on Dorrell Wright - Miami holds restricted rights on Wright, so it may take a bit of over-paying to convince them he's not worth the money. Wright has shown enough upside when allowed to run free and exploit his explosiveness that I'm willing to risk over-paying. Mullin has long been rumored to be an admirer, so if anyone is going to get our GM into the free agent pool, it's probably Wright. I'd offer a three-year deal at $5, 5.5 and 6.1 million respectively.
Step 6: Spend the bi-annual exception on Kelenna Azubuike - With all the new faces joining the team, Kelenna's presence would add a bit of continuity. Furthermore, as he demonstrated last year, he does the things that so few of the other current Warriors manage - rebound and play defense most importantly. There might be other suitors, so the Warriors could find themselves in an offer-sheet matching situation. Ideally, we'd be able to lock him up for three years at $1.9, 2.1, and 2.4 million respectively.
Step 7: Resign Matt Barnes to the veteran minimum - Because (1) you can't coach toughness and (2) I believe he'll be a lot closer to the Barnes of 06-07 than 07-08 next year. The Warriors are going to be looking to fill out their roster with cheap options given all the money spent above. Barnes is the surest bet out of a very unsure pool of marginal talent likely available. Total cap hit in 08-09: $1 million.
Step 8: Draft a European player in the second round - Stick him overseas, let him develop, don't sink any money into him while the team flirts with the luxury tax. In a year or two, if he looks promising, the team can bring him over. Cap hit in 08-09: $0.
When you add up all these moves for 08-09, here's what the team looks like, in rough order of the depth chart:
1. Davis - PG ($17.8 mil)
2. Ellis - SG, PG ($8 mil)
3. Jackson - SF ($7.1 mil)
4. B. Wright - PF ($2.5 mil)
5. Biedrins - C ($7 mil)
6. Lowry - PG ($1.2 mil)
7. D. Wright - SF, PF ($5 mil)
8. Azubuike - SG, SF ($1.9 mil)
9. Bellinelli - SG ($1.4 mil)
10. Speights - PF, C ($1.6 mil)
11. Doughlas-Roberts - SG, SF ($1.2 mil)
12. Perovic - C ($1.9 mil)
13. Barnes - SF, PF ($1.0 mil)
xx Foyle - ($6.9 mil)
xx Van Horn and Hassell ($7.4 mil)
xx 08 2nd Round Pick ($0.0 mil)
The roster above puts the Warriors at a grand total of $71.9 million for the 08-09 season. With a little luck in resigning Monta or Andris, or potentially a cheaper deal for Dorrell Wright, Cohan might even get his wish of staying under the luxury tax threshold. Would the team be worse than 07-08? It's hard to image, with Lowry and D. Wright adding fire power to the bench and Belinelli and B. Wright stepping up to contribute. But all the moves above aren't directed at the 08-09 season. These moves should be made with 09-10 and beyond in mind.
In the summer of 09, I propose the Warriors let Baron walk. Assuming all of the above transactions, our cap status would look like this:
1. Ellis - SG, PG ($9 mil)
2. Jackson - SF ($7.7 mil)
3. B. Wright - PF ($2.7 mil)
4. Biedrins - C ($8 mil)
5. Lowry - PG ($2.0 mil)
6. D. Wright - SF, PF ($5.5 mil)
7. Azubuike - SG, SF ($2.1 mil)
8. Bellinelli - SG ($1.5 mil)
9. Speights - PF, C ($1.7 mil)
10. Douglas-Roberts - SG, SF ($1.3 mil)
11. Perovic - C ($2.1 mil)
xx Foyle - ($0.7 mil)
xx Van Horn and Hassell ($6.9 mil)
xx 08 2nd Round Pick ($0.0 mil)
Assuming the Warriors renounce the rights to Davis (and any other free agents), they'd sit at roughly $51 million in total payroll. With the cap likely to be around $60 million, they'd have $9 million to sign a top-tier free agent. A proven veteran plus Ellis, Wright, and Biedrins in their prime would be a potent combination. Add a battle-tested, deep bench and the Warriors could have all the pieces necessary to make serious noise in the post-season.
And just in case it isn't enough, the team would have another $17.5 million coming off the books in 10-11 when Jackson, Perovic, and the Van Horn / Hassel / Foyle buyouts disappear from the salary rolls. When you factor in pay raises for the players still under contract that year under the above scenario (Ellis, B. Wright, Biedrins, D. Wright, Azubuike, Belinelli, Speights, Douglas-Roberts, 09-10 $10 Mil Free Agent X) along with a few minimum contract players, the team again could be around $10 million under the salary cap to sign yet another top-tier free agent.
The Warriors took the first steps towards trading the present for the future when they moved Jason Richardson last June. This summer, it's time for the team to make decisive moves to finish the transition. The 09-10 and 10-11 seasons could be the Warriors' time. It's now up to Chris Mullin and Chris Cohan to seize the opportunity.
Step 4: Trade $1.16 of the TPE and our 09 First Rounder for Kyle Lowry - Memphis turns its point guard most likely to be traded into a future first round pick, while shedding cap in the process. For a team still rumored to be on the block for sale, it's a neutral basketball move but smart subtraction financially. The Warriors don't miss the pick, already stocking up on youngsters in the 07 and 08 drafts. Lowry has a chance to audition for the starting point guard spot if/when Davis leaves and provides a spark-plug back-up so long as Davis sticks around. Total cap hit: $1.2 mil in 08-09 and $2.0 mil in 09-10.
I dunno if i like this trade at all. first of all he is a small pg (6 feet tall)...if we let baron walk in 09 then monte will have toguard sg on a full time basis. I dunno if he can do that. Also I am not a fan of giving up our pick in 09. I think if we are going to give up this much we needto get a bigger pg
Step 4: Trade $1.16 of the TPE and our 09 First Rounder for Kyle Lowry - Memphis turns its point guard most likely to be traded into a future first round pick, while shedding cap in the process. For a team still rumored to be on the block for sale, it's a neutral basketball move but smart subtraction financially. The Warriors don't miss the pick, already stocking up on youngsters in the 07 and 08 drafts. Lowry has a chance to audition for the starting point guard spot if/when Davis leaves and provides a spark-plug back-up so long as Davis sticks around. Total cap hit: $1.2 mil in 08-09 and $2.0 mil in 09-10.
Step 5: Spend the mid-level exception on Dorrell Wright - Miami holds restricted rights on Wright, so it may take a bit of over-paying to convince them he's not worth the money. Wright has shown enough upside when allowed to run free and exploit his explosiveness that I'm willing to risk over-paying. Mullin has long been rumored to be an admirer, so if anyone is going to get our GM into the free agent pool, it's probably Wright. I'd offer a three-year deal at $5, 5.5 and 6.1 million respectively.
Step 6: Spend the bi-annual exception on Kelenna Azubuike - With all the new faces joining the team, Kelenna's presence would add a bit of continuity. Furthermore, as he demonstrated last year, he does the things that so few of the other current Warriors manage - rebound and play defense most importantly. There might be other suitors, so the Warriors could find themselves in an offer-sheet matching situation. Ideally, we'd be able to lock him up for three years at $1.9, 2.1, and 2.4 million respectively.
Kyle Lowry? I like him and all, but risking a first rounder is expensive, you never know what's going to happen this upcoming year. He hasn't provenmuch, and I think the Warriors need a vet back-up, not a young PG. As for Dorrell Wright, I don't think he's going to go anywhere, he'll want tostay with Miami because he will get PT, and high chance of success. I thought it was pretty well known that Kelenna won't return?
[h1]Warriors' immediate future in Mullin's hands[/h1] [h2]Draft choices, Davis contract loom large[/h2]
Janny Hu, Chronicle Staff Writer
Friday, June 20, 2008
(06-19) 21:35 PDT -- A man conditioned not to look back still has his wistful moments. So it was that Warriors vice president Chris Mullin watched Kevin Garnett celebrate his first NBA championship this week and reminisced about what might have been.
"I wish that that was us, of course," Mullin said Thursday. "I could almost see it. Thought I did see it."
A year ago, Mullin built his offseason plan around acquiring Garnett and came up short. A year later, another complex summer looms, one the fifth-year executive says will be his most defining to date.
Thursday's draft sets off a flurry of decision-making that will shape Golden State's future. After the draft comes Baron Davis' opt-out date. After that, free agency. And through it all are the possibility of trades.
Speaking to the media for the first time since the regular season ended, Mullin said he will not let one timeframe prematurely affect another. He will not draft a ballhandler to protect against losing Davis - but he rather would let the draft and free agency unfold systematically.
"To a degree, they are tied together," Mullin said. "But you map them out, what your goals are, but you also have to have room to adjust."
To that end, Mullin admits to being more active in working the phones this summer. He has inquired about moving up in the draft and is hoping to acquire a "difference-maker," whom Mullin defined as "someone who puts you ... in the second round and maybe the conference finals."
Here's a look at the three key dates for the Warriors:
-- Thursday: The NBA draft takes places, and as of now, the Warriors have the 14th and 49th overall picks. More than 40 players have worked out in Oakland, with Joe Alexander, Marreese Speights and Brandon Rush among the top tier of candidates.
Don't be surprised if Golden State trades its pick to move up in the draft or to acquire a proven player. With the Warriors still developing Brandan Wright and Marco Belinelli, the team needs more immediate help than project players.
-- June 30: The last day for Davis to opt out of his contract and for the Warriors to use their $10 million trade exception from the Jason Richardson deal.
Davis' agent, Todd Ramasar, said this week that no decision has been made, but all indications are that Davis will play out the final season of his $17.8 million contract.
The larger issue is Davis' long-term future in Oakland. Davis wants a multiyear extension and Mullin now says he's open for negotiations, but the two sides remain far apart. And in the likely event that no new deal is reached, the Warriors risk having both their franchise player and coach carrying a lame-duck status next season.
"There is no new update," Ramasar said. "We are still making some decisions."
"If the deal does get done, the gap would have been bridged," Mullin added. "I have great respect for Baron as a player and what he's done, and if we can work that out, that would be great."
-- July 1: Free agency begins, and the Warriors will have two of the biggest names available in Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins. Both are restricted, however, giving the Warriors the right to match any offer sheet the players sign - something Mullin has promised to do.
"They'll be back," Mullin said.
Mullin said he would prefer to reach quick resolutions with representatives for both Ellis and Biedrins, allowing the Warriors to fill out the rest of their roster without earmarking funds. He also knows the process could take all summer and beyond - as it did for Cleveland with restricted free agents Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic last year.
[h1]Kawakami: Warriors likely to draft a swingman[/h1]
Tim Kawakami
Mercury News Columnist
Article Launched: 06/20/2008 01:36:39 AM PDT
How about a swingman, not a big man, with the 14th pick in next week's NBA draft, Warriors fans?
That's the way it's looking. Add depth, don't risk a bust by reaching for an imperfect big man, just take the best middle-sized guy left on the board.
That's what appears to be Chris Mullin's most practical path, though that isn't the most popular method to fill the franchise's need for a thick-bodied rebounding gargoyle.
That void will have to be addressed via trade or free agency, or possibly not at all, if I'm extrapolating correctly from a conversation with the Warriors chief this week.
"I'm starting to like 14 a little bit," Mullin said. "Some of those guards that you're talking about could be gone, but maybe not. And there could always be a decent forward or center there."
Elliptical, as always. Keeping his options open. However . . .
Fact: Mullin is holding the 14th pick without much available trade firepower. Fact: Every available premium player will be gone by No. 9 and Don Nelson does not respect non-premium young big men.
To the point, Mullin acknowledged that it might not be possible to leap high enough to grab UCLA's Kevin Love.
"I've seen him quite a bit," Mullin said. "I like him. . . . I just don't know how high you can move up right now realistically."
Let's also presume that Memphis' Derrick Rose, Kansas State's Michael Beasley, USC's O.J. Mayo, Stanford's Brook Lopez, UCLA's Russell Westbrook, Indiana's Eric
Gordon and Arizona's Jerryd Bayless are out of the Warriors' reach.
Asked point blank if he'd be open to trading last year's top rookie, forward Brandan Wright, Mullin's answer was immediate: "No, that's not happening."
I believe Mullin this time because the Warriors are confident that the 20-year-old Wright is more talented than everybody in this year's draft except Rose and Beasley, and you don't give away talents like that.
So there isn't likely to be a trade up. There probably won't be a reach for a defensive-minded center such as Stanford's Robin Lopez or Nevada's JaVale McGee or a raw bruiser such as Florida's Marreese Speights or a smallish power forward such as Kansas' Darrell Arthur or a non-rebounding center such as Ohio State's Kosta Koufos.
If the Warriors are lucky, the pick could be West Virginia's tough, acrobatic small forward Joe Alexander (good private workout last week) or LSU's big-potential combo forward Anthony Randolph. Both figure to be solid starters down the line. But both could be long gone by 14.
If things go about as predicted, it could be Syracuse's sweet-shooting tall forward Donte Greene, scheduled to visit the Warriors today.
If all those guys are gone, the pick could be versatile Nicolas Batum from France or Brandon Rush from Kansas. Neither projects as an immediate starter, but both would add athleticism and depth for a team that ran out of dependable players of all sizes late last season.
The Warriors still need a bruiser, Mullin acknowledges, but he also adds that the Warriors have averaged 45 victories the past two seasons and don't need to start breaking up the core now.
Mullin knows he'll almost certainly have Baron Davis back. He has Nelson back. He promised again that Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis won't get away during their restricted free agency, even if they get maximum offers.
"They will be matched," Mullin said.
The next step, presumably after drafting Alexander, Greene, Batum or Rush, will be to find a veteran or two to fill in the gaps, Mullin suggested.
My obvious candidates, who come with varying degrees of difficulty: Rasheed Wallace (almost impossible due to his huge salary), Ron Artest (uh oh, Mullin has always liked him) and Yi Jianlian (intriguing but another imperfect big man).
"Without talking about somebody else's players, there are types of players that can play for us, you know that," Mullin said.
Would he be concerned about adding an older player? "No, we're a young team," Mullin said. "(Adding a veteran) is a legitimate thing to look at.
"It wouldn't be if we didn't have these young guys - Andris, (Marco) Belinelli, Brandan and Monta, (Kelenna) Azubuike . . . they're young. And with the pick we're going to get, that's one, two, three, four, five, six guys. Half the team's young."
No mega-deal talk. No wild trade-ups or frantic maneuvering. It's far from the excitement of last year at this time, when the Warriors injected themselves into a slew of headline possibilities, starting with the near-deal for Kevin Garnett and ending up with the trade of Jason Richardson for Wright.
It's different. It's calm. Of course, Mullin could change everything with a few dramatic decisions before Thursday and teleport a wild big man into town . . . but it doesn't look that way.
It looks like a swingman, and it looks like the right decision given the time and place and the 14th-pick options.
Would he be concerned about adding an older player? "No, we're a young team," Mullin said. "(Adding a veteran) is a legitimate thing to look at.
"It wouldn't be if we didn't have these young guys - Andris, (Marco) Belinelli, Brandan and Monta, (Kelenna) Azubuike . . . they're young. And with the pick we're going to get, that's one, two, three, four, five, six guys. Half the team's young."
a hint that we're gonna keep him?
[h1]Cavs Interested In Harrington?[/h1]
Jun 20, 2008 9:29 AM EST
Sources say the Cavs have been active in trade talks in days leading up to the draft.
If the Warriors made forward/center Al Harrington available, the Cavs might have an interest.
huzzah!
Lower in the item: Mullin guaranteeing that Ellis and Biedrins will remain with the Warriors, talk about Baron Davis and Don Nelson's future, Wright's development and making an effort to acquire a veteran.
It's not like last year. It's not crazy, frantic, wild, exhausting. There's not a million semi-authentic rumors involving the Warriors' pre-draft intentions (only a few bad ones).
It's too bad. I couldn't even get Kevin Garnett's name into my recent conversation with Chris Mullin without forcing it. But I did.
Now that Garnett's a champion in Boston, Chris, can you at least confirm that you almost acquired him on draft night a year ago? For two or three minutes, as I've heard, you thought KG was about to become a Warrior?
"I will tell you some day," Mullin said this week, laughing. "But not today. Some day, I will tell you."
Fine. Leaving me hanging once again, but fine. Let's jump to the info part of this endeavor, which I will consider a companion piece to the COLUMN I wrote, which is scheduled to appear in this morning's tomorrow Mercury News (hidden a bit on our site).
Time to toss out some of the bloggy highlights, with the caveat that you must realize that I talked to Mullin more than a week before the draft and he could be sending out smoke signals, telling the truth, hoping this all gets out to confuse the matter, whatever:
* Mullin said he obviously really likes UCLA's Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook and Indiana's Eric Gordon but suggested it appeared that the Warriors couldn't move up to the 5-6-7-8-9 area where those guys are expected to be selected.
Well, there might be one way: Use Brandan Wright as trade bait. I asked Mullin if he'd consider trading last year's No. 8 overall pick: "No, that's not happening."
I believe him. This isn't a Jason Richardson no-trade situation, which I didn't quite believe when Mullin repeated it last summer. That was for show.
This is for real. Everything I've heard about the Warriors' thinking is: If Wright was in this draft, he'd be the third overall pick. They like him more than they like Love, even. (Supposedly.) They're not moving Wright.
* Mullin said he's "starting to like" the 14th slot as we get closer to the June 26 draft.
Since he told me he recently watched a very impressive West Virginia's Joe Alexander and had a session coming up with Syracuse's Donte Greene, I'm presuming that Mullin will be happy with an offensive-minded wing man at 14 (like those two guys) even though he acknowledges that there's a major void at power forward/center.
I think Mullin felt comfortable praising Alexander because he assumes Alexander, who has been skyrocketing after every new individual work out, will be gone by the Warriors' selection and not a part of their strategizing.
Greene, though, probably will be there. He's not a defensive player at all, but I hear he's lighting it up from deep in his workouts. At 6-9, I guess he's kind of a poor man's Kevin Durant. So you put Greene with last year's pick of Marco Belinelli and I don't know, that looks duplicative. But if Greene can shoot it and run… he might be your likely Warriors' selection because Nelson can always use more shooting wing men.
Well, I know he always wants more shooting wing men.
If Alexander and Greene are off the board, two more wings for consideration: Kansas' Brandon Rush (in the monster group of 24 who worked out before the Warriors and 16 other teams last week, arranged in Oakland) and possibly France's Nicolas Batum into that potential group.
Both very servicable back-up wings to step in for Matt Barnes and/or Mickael Pietrus, especially defensively.
* If there's a skinny forward who could fall to the Warriors' slot and who could get Mullin and Don Nelson's attention, it might be LSU's Anthony Randolph, a tall tweener who doesn't project to be an immediate starter but could be a very good player in two or three years.
But I don't think Randolph's getting to 14. (I also think he's very much the same thing as Wright. Tough to keep taking players Nellie doesn't like/won't play.)
* Mullin said he was open to selecting one of the limited big men likely to fall to 14-Stanford's Robin Lopez, Nevada's JaVale McGee, Florida's Marreese Speights, Ohio State's Kosta Koufos, Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan, Kansas' Darrell Arthur.
I just don't sense much excitement in the Warriors' camp about any of those guys. I can see where Nellie would like Koufos as a perimeter big… but Koufos is no rebounder, and that just highlights the Warriors' weakness. I can see McGee or Jordan as a down-the-road pick, but can you take a flier on a questionable 7-footer after Patrick O'Bryant's big washout under Nelson?
Maybe Jordan's so talented, Mullin can't ignore him if he falls all the way to 14. He won't play at all next season, though. That's a tough sell for anybody, even Mullin.
* The Warriors could be looking for a future point guard, but Texas' D.J. Augustin is the only good one potentially available at 14, and he's too short for a future pairing with Monta Ellis.
* I asked Mullin specifically if he has to be wary of non-shooting big men in the Nellie system and with non-shooters Andris Biedrins and Wright already on the roster. Mullin's answer: "That's a fair and good question. The other part is, you are drafting ideally for down the line. A lot of it is for that no matter who you pick, that player probably won't be ready to play right away. If you are picking for that, you're higher than 14 and you're probably not that good."
Translation: If the non-shooting big man is talented enough, the Warriors could take him. But he'd have to be really talented.
Another question: Do you think your pick at 14, if he's a big guy, will be an immediate contributor? "I think it's a possibility, but the guys that have done that have been far and few between, you know?" Mullin said.
* Mullin continued to say he's talking with teams about the Warriors' $9.9M trade exception, but that he might not know if the Warriors are going to use it until right at the June 30 deadline.
If the Warriors use the TE, considering the raises that are due to Ellis and Biedrins, among others, it's almost certain they're going into luxury tax. I asked Mullin: Since you've said you'd only go into luxury tax if you can get a player who is guaranteed to make you significantly better, are you still thinking that way about the TE?
"Tto justify that… going into luxury tax, it's going to have to be a significant player that we feel puts us not just tyring to get into the playoffs, but getting deep into the playoffs," Mullin said.
Like KG would've? Silence but I think I could hear him nodding his head furiously.
* As mentioned in the column, Mullin sounded interested in picking up a bigger player via the veteran route-either by trade or free agency, most likely trade. I'd guess that the most likely candidates are Rasheed Wallace (tough because of his huge salary next season), Ron Artest (always a Mullin favorite) and Yi Jianlian (though he's pretty soft).
Would Mullin be wary of an older player-would there be a danger of loading it all up for one year, damn the consequences, with a 29-year-old point guard and quite old coach, both on one-year deals?
" We're a young team," Mullin said. "That's the thing I see. We've gotten younger, increased our win total. (Adding a veteran) is a legimiate thing to look at. If we didn't have these young guys-Andris, Belinelli, Brandan and Monta and (Kelenna) Azubuike… They're young. And the pick we're going to get… That's one, two, three, four, five, six… Half the team's young."
* Is there an update on Baron, who can opt out on June 30? (Of course I don't expect Baron to opt-out, but I had to ask the question.) Will you have any more negotiations on an extention before the deadline?
"We've had open dialogue, a lot of conversations and they'll continue," Mullin said.
Will you start planning for the future, after Baron, since it may be on July 1, may be after the season?
"I think you always have to have a future plan for everything," Mullin said. "But in my mind, Baron's obviously our best player and he's 29. He has good years ahead of him. He's done a great job while he's been here andi look forward to that continuing how exactly that works out, we'll have to wait and see."
* OK, what about Nelson's future-he just announced he'll be back for this season, but how much longer?
"Nellie's earned the right to map out his future. That's as long as he likes to look at it or as short," Mullin said. "I'm totally comfortable with that. I've had great dialogue with Nellie. I understand him. I really believe his impact not only with the players and the way we play but with the coaches that are working under him… he's going to have far more impact than just the time he spends coaching. And if that's another two to three years or just this season, I'm comfortable with that. We'll talk about it more privately than publicly, Nellie and I. And figure that next step out.
"He's doing a great job and I think his impact will be felt beyond just the time he coaches here."
But Don wanted you to designate Keith Smart as his official successor this summer, and you didn't. Are you starting the search for Nelson's replacement… shouldn't you?
"The first order of business will be figuring out Nellie and let that take its course," Mullin said. "The next step will be taken… There's guys here who are capable and will be considered. And there's endless changes out there. If Nellie's here beyond this season, which could very well happen… we'll wait and find out after that.
"I'm comfortable with Nellie in that respect. It's not something I feel uneasy about at all. I think it's something he's earned and deserves and it's also fine with me.
"But you also want to know exactly who's on your roster (when you're determining a coach), so to pre-determine one without the other… It becomes a fit and not much, 'This is the way it's going to be no matter what.'"
OK, well, about playing style. Chris, if you're running the show, won't this team play fast no matter what? So there's not a huge change in style you have to account for after Nellie, I'm presuming?
"You've got that right," Mullin said. "That's true."
* Mullin's thoughts on hearing Nelson say recently that he's committed to working Wright and Belinelli into the main rotation:
"We sat down and talked when he first got back. Those were as much his feelings as anything… And I didn't disagree.
"How that works out, we'll see. I think they're both here now, working hard, getting ready for summer league. Hopefully be some what of a natural progression as opposed to… We all feel like they're going to contribute. This summer will be big for them… They've got a little experience. I think they're very motivated and hungry to prove."
* Mullin on the chance that Biedrins and Wright play too similarly (not jumpshooters, lanky, non-power players) to play together for the long term:
"I think we have to watch a little bit. I don't know about that. I'm not saying yes or no. I haven't really seen them together a whole lot. To say no… I don't think there's a concrete answer. It's incomplete…
"I think obviously Andris is way more effective finishing around the basket. Although when I saw Andris play before he got here, he actually was more of a small forward. Hopefully he can develop a little more away from the basket. I think he can. Just as much about confidence. Obviously his strength is his quickness around the basket, his finishing.
"We've had players throughout history become better shooters over time. Hopefully he'll be able to expand his game.
"Same with Brandan. I think he possesses a lot of skills that we haven't seen that much. He can shoot the ball. He very rarely shoots a contested shot… can step off and shoot it… For a guy his age, I wouldn't pigeonhole him and say, 'This is who he's going to be.'
"He handles the ball well. Doesn't always look conventional. But he's one of those guys, seems to me, he's always in the right place, makes something good happen."
* Mullin, asked if he still believes 100% that he will be able to keep Ellis and Biedrins during their restricted free agency period, which starts July 1:
"Yes, I do."
Do you know generally what their price tags will be? "Not at this moment."
So you don't know the price, yet you still are sure you'll keep them? Even if a team-say Memphis-comes up and offers one of them the max possible-well over $100M?
"They will be matched."
* OK, how about Chris Mullin's contract status? My understanding is that you are entering the final year of your initial five-year contract to run basketball ops for the Warriors. Any clarification of that?
"I'm totally focused on the draft."
Can you at least say if you've gotten an extension or not? Or want one?
"Totally focused on the draft."