With the NBA season nearly upon us, ESPN Insider has some final preseason thoughts on every team, including a league scout's team outlook courtesy of ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard, David Thorpe's breakout players to watch and contract/performance analysis from Tom Haberstroh.
ATLANTA HAWKS
They retained their young core and re-signed their franchise player, but a drop-off from last season's success is all but assured.
"Unless [new coach] Larry Drew brings out something that team's been holding back, they've tapped out. Drew will run a motion offense, which will be better for them long-term. It'll get the ball circulating and make guys like
Marvin Williams,
Josh Smith and
Al Horford better. They won't be as predictable offensively. It'll also give
Joe Johnson more bounce in the last six minutes of games. The danger they face is that Mike Woodson was a heck of a defensive coach, real tough and demanding. If Drew takes his foot off that brake, this team could roll off the cliff defensively."
Best-case scenario: "I see a definite decline coming, so they win 48 games and get beat in the first round."
Worst-case scenario: "The new offense doesn't take hold, they take a step back defensively, win just 43 games and miss the playoffs.
--As told to Chris Broussard
[h3]Thorpe's breakout player:
Jeff Teague, G[/h3]
Quickness, skills, attitude and overall talent: Teague has everything a young player needs to play his way into a strong team's rotation -- except opportunity.
Jamal Crawford's terrific play last season kept Teague stuck on the pine. But because Crawford is stuck without a contract extension, and thanks to the below-average play of
Mike Bibby, Teague's opportunities should explode this season. If he can improve his shooting, we can expect him to be even a permanent starter by midseason. Even if Bibby improves, Teague could -- and should -- partner with Crawford to form a dynamic backcourt off the bench.
[h3]Haberstroh's salary spotlight: Josh Smith, F[/h3]
Age: 25 | 2010-11 salary: $11.7 million | Projected player efficiency rating: 19.2
Smith's contributions on both ends of the floor last season translated to approximately 13 wins above replacement level. Because teams typically pay about $2 million for each win, that equates to about $15 million in on-the-court surplus value. For a franchise that has $150 million locked up in Marvin Williams and Joe Johnson, that's a huge bargain.
Smith is a nightmare for opponents on the defensive end and led the NBA in defensive plays (blocks, steals and drawn charges) last season with 328 total. And while he can fill up the box score, he's also one of the top 20 players in adjusted plus/minus during the past two seasons, indicating his stats aren't hollow.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Another trip to the playoffs isn't out of the question, but Larry Brown and Michael Jordan are still searching for the right personnel.
"You can never count this team out because they've taken on their coach's personality. They're tough, they're going to win games they shouldn't win, they're not going to score a lot, but they're going to keep you from scoring a lot: They're Larry Brown. The front office seems high on
.J. Augustin, but Brown's not crazy about him. Larry and
Michael Jordan think
Boris Diaw is soft. He's perimeter-oriented, very skilled, high IQ, but he won't do the things they need him to do to be a presence on the front line."
Best-case scenario: "Whatever the magic number is to get into the playoffs -- 41, 42, 43 wins -- they get that and the eighth seed. But they can't win a playoff series.
Worst-case scenario: "They hover around the eighth spot, flirt with it but come up short.
--As told to Chris Broussard
[h3]Thorpe's breakout player: D.J. Augustin, G[/h3]
Every month counts in the NBA, just as every game does. And despite a very poor season for Augustin last season, his strong play in April allowed his coaches to believe that he could be their starting point guard if
Raymond Felton ever left. Felton did go, and now it's Augustin's show to run. The Bobcats have little choice, with
Shaun Livingston, still trying to get back into anyone's playing rotation, as Augustin's backup. Augustin showed excellent potential as a rookie, so we know he has the game to excel when things are going well for him. But to play for Brown, he'll have to learn to manage a game, even when he's not playing his best.
[h3]Haberstroh's salary spotlight:
Gerald Wallace, F[/h3]
Age: 28 | 2010-11 salary: $10.5 million | Projected PER: 17.7
There's not much Wallace can't do. He topped all small forwards in rebounding rate (14.7 percent), drew the seventh-most charges in the league and got to the foul line at twice the rate of a typical small forward. He shot 37.1 percent from downtown, finished ninth in steal rate and joined
Charles Barkley and
Shawn Marion as the only players in the past decade who were shorter than 6-foot-8 and averaged at least 18 points and 10 rebounds for a full season. More than 50 NBA players will earn a higher salary than Wallace this season, so the Bobcats are getting this Swiss Army knife at a discount.
MIAMI HEAT
The Big Three have the talent to dominate competition and the good sense to know who should take the final shot in crunch time.
LeBron James is a very unselfish superstar, so that will eliminate a lot of the problems that could arise when you have three stars. Miami did a good job of adding pieces around its Big Three -- getting back
Udonis Haslem and adding
Mike Miller -- but I'm not sure their bench is strong enough. Plus, I'm very skeptical about their point guard and center positions. If they're smart, they'll play fast; that will give them more possessions, give each of their stars more shot attempts and keep everybody happy. Everyone's wondering who'll take the last shot, but when the game is on the line, believe me, LeBron and
Chris Bosh will want
Dwyane Wade taking it. I've seen and studied them, seen their body language, and there's a big difference between Wade and those two in those situations."
Best-case scenario: "This team finds a rhythm,
Mario Chalmers plays with confidence, some of their role guys step up and they win between 57-60 games. They make it through a tough Eastern Conference playoff field to reach the Finals. But they can't win the Finals this year. They can next year, but not this year.
Worst-case scenario: "They still win 53 games, because one thing LeBron can do is win regular-season games. He can do that with just about any supporting cast. In the playoffs, they get into a second-round dogfight with Orlando and lose in seven games because they can't stop
Dwight Howard and
Jameer Nelson.
--As told to Chris Broussard
[h3]Thorpe's breakout player: Mario Chalmers, PG[/h3]
Chalmers gets the nod here almost by default. Demoted at times to third string last season, Chalmers will have a far different role on this season's squad. He can focus almost all his energy into simply executing the game plan on offense and being a go-to perimeter defender on defense. He basically has to take on the persona of an offensive lineman in the NFL who's blocking for a talented running back and quarterback; as long as no one notices him, he's doing his job well. Just keep it simple and get the ball to the Superfriends.
[h3]Haberstroh's salary spotlight:
Joel Anthony, C[/h3]
Age: 28 | 2010-11 salary: $3.3 million | Projected PER: 10.7
Anthony plays like a raw, unfinished prospect, but he's actually 28 years old. He scored in double figures just once last season and ranked as the league's worst defensive rebounding center, collecting just 11.1 percent of available boards. For comparison, that's the same rate as the average shooting guard, according to
Hoopdata.com. The only thing he does well is block shots, which is a good skill to have in the paint but far too insignificant to warrant a five-year deal on its own.
ORLANDO MAGIC
A trip to the conference finals could be in order, as long as head coach Stan Van Gundy can stave off the makings of a mutiny.
They could use a flat-out scorer off the bench, a
Jamal Crawford-type to give them 16-18 points a night. They miss that punch.
Vince Carter is not in the killer category. He gives you numbers but won't buy into really being a good defender. And while he's not a selfish guy, he's a selfish scorer, a guy who dominates the ball when he gets it going. Because of Vince, I thought
Rashard Lewis didn't get enough touches last year. In the playoffs,
Jameer Nelson's lack of height and inability to bother opponents defensively hurts them. "And then I've been told by players in that locker room that Stan Van Gundy's act has worn thin. He's a blatant yeller and screamer who'll throw you under the bus in the press conference after a game. They've got too much pride to take the key out of the ignition, but there comes a time when a team completely stops listening to a coach, and I don't think he's far from that."
Best-case scenario: "They win 58 games and somehow make it to the Eastern Conference finals. But I don't see them getting past that point."
Worst-case scenario: "They don't get Lewis enough touches, they grow weary of Stan and it costs them wins. That gets them a matchup against the wrong team in the first round, and they get eliminated early."
--As told to Chris Broussard
[h3]Thorpe's breakout player:
Ryan Anderson, PF
Now that
J.J. Redick has his first real contract, one that he earned with pure hard work, he will relax and play even better than he has in the past. But Anderson has game, too, and considering how much Lewis struggled last season, it's fair to expect Van Gundy to get Anderson a lot more touches. He's a much better rebounder than the Lewis we saw last season, and perhaps his inspired play will light a fire under Lewis. Either way, the Magic have to get more from the power forward spot, and Anderson will have many chances to provide top-level shooting, hustle and board work.
[h3]Haberstroh's salary spotlight: Rashard Lewis, PF[/h3][/h3]
Age: 31 | 2010-11 salary: $19.6 million | Projected PER: 13.2
Lewis offers more value to the Magic than he would to most organizations because he's so compatible with their four-out offense. Unfortunately, the 6-foot-10 sharpshooter is getting up there in age and took a big step backward from a 16.8 PER in 2008-09 to just 14.0 last season, largely because of declines in rebounding and assists. He still can be an effective player worthy of a few wins, but he'll be the second-highest-paid player in the NBA behind
Kobe Bryant this season. That's not good value.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Washington has a potential superstar in the making, but the face of the franchise is still a disgruntled Agent Zero.
Andray Blatche is the biggest X factor because he's so talented yet such a head case. He's goofy and very immature, kind of a tease. Same with
JaVale McGee -- a freak athlete who could really do some things in this league if he gets it together.
John Wall is special, and, if he perfects his jump shot, the sky's the limit for him because he's got a lot of character. He's well-grounded and very humble.
Gilbert Arenas will still put up numbers because he's just that gifted, but he could be a problem. He will never be a leader, and he'll never let anybody else lead. That's a horrible dynamic for a locker room. If Wall starts to succeed with this team, Gilbert will become a recluse, saying things like, 'Don't talk to me. Talk to John. It's his team. It's not about me, it's about him.' He'll be very condescending, which will make him even more selfish."
Best-case scenario: "They're able to trade Arenas, start over and win 31, 32 games."
Worst-case scenario: "They struggle shooting the ball, don't play good defense and win 28 games."
--As told to Chris Broussard
[h3]Thorpe's breakout players: JaVale McGee, C, and
Yi Jianlian, F
I listed two players here, but I could have named every post player in Washington. That's because every one of them will see how much fun hoops can be when playing alongside a singular talent like John Wall. Both McGee and Yi had great summers, McGee in the Vegas summer league (where he might have showed the best athleticism of any big) and Yi in the world championships in Turkey (where he finished first overall in rebounding and fourth in scoring). McGee should collect dozens of spectacular finishes after great passes from Wall, especially in transition, where he can use his talents to their best advantage. Ditto for Yi, who will also be open a lot on 1-4 ball screens.
[h3]Haberstroh's salary spotlight:
Gilbert Arenas, G[/h3][/h3]
Age: 29 | 2010-11 salary: $17.7 million | Projected PER: 17.3
Judging by Arenas' despondent preseason demeanor, this could get ugly quickly. To make matters worse, he has one of the most unmovable contracts in the NBA, given his off-the-court troubles, shaky health and enormous salary through 2013-14. But he still can bring it, and it's in everyone's best interest for him to play his tail off. You just have to wonder whether Arenas sees it that way.
Always fun to watch/listen.
