School me on sports betting.

Originally Posted by Juan Baller

Betting on sports isn't about picking winners. It's about identifying misplaced lines and odds.
Click to expand...
what he said.

you're basically trying to outsmart or outguess the "experts" in Vegas.

but let's face it they're smarter than us most of the time.

IMO, if you don't have LARGE amt of funds to place bets with and are just trying to get extra gas money, then it's not even worth it.
 
last night i only did one pick......cha/tor over 195......idk what ima do tonight
 
Originally Posted by Paul Is On Tilt

Yo Craftsy21, I'd like to know more tips if you got the time... PM me? Thanks bro.
Click to expand...

Hit me up anytime with any specifics you're wondering about - like i said, i'm not a great capper myself, but i have a decent understanding of thetheory of handicapping sports, and i know the right direction to look for a lot of information dealing with this stuff...

like others have mentioned - covers is a good place to look around and learn some stuff, sportsinsight and wagerline are both good to watch public opinionseffect on things.

But you gotta do you - some people love playing straight underdog ML's, especially in baseball and football - and following some of them on the messageboards, i can't say i disagree with that formula.. But other people are purely situational handicappers, who only play games that fit the right criteriafor them (be it a certain value, a certain game situation, etc)... Then you have people who play systems, like a certain parlay system in college footballwhere you play both sides of a game if it's a certain spread and total -- i can't remember the specific details but it's out there if you lookaround, a lot of times you have to use two separate books to do it but it's paid well the last few years.

There's all kinds of stuff to try out there - get to it!
wink.gif
 
Thanks for the advice, everybody; I appreciate it. I understand the basics of over/under and all that; I always pay attention to lines even though I'venever bet before. What I don't understand is the return.

For example, if I bet $50? on the total points of the Hornets/Magic game tonight, how much money would I win?

Also, what would be a worthwhile amount of money for a beginner to start with?
 
you would win about $50......a straight up bet will basically flip your $$$ if you do point spread or over/under totals.....people get greedy and start doingparlays cause if you bet $50 on a 5 team parlay you can win $1000 but the chances of hitting all five are slim
 
Originally Posted by Kiddin Like Jason

Thanks for the advice, everybody; I appreciate it. I understand the basics of over/under and all that; I always pay attention to lines even though I've never bet before. What I don't understand is the return.

For example, if I bet $50? on the total points of the Hornets/Magic game tonight, how much money would I win?

Also, what would be a worthwhile amount of money for a beginner to start with?
Click to expand...

You would be risking 50 to win 45 dollars. The standard "juice" on a spread -110 or 1.1 to 1. This basically insures the book makes moneyregardless because lets say you do two bets at 50 a piece and you go 1-1. You'd be down a net of 5 dollars. Hope that makes sense.
By the way hopeyou're taking over 208 in that Orlando/NO game champ
glasses.gif
 
By the way hope you're taking over 208 in that Orlando/NO game champ
Already moved to 209.5, and I am jumping on it. I like this theory for over/unders of I look at where a bet starts with... say 208, and if itmoves up minimum of 2 points, I still ride the over. I feel that it is Vegas trying to get people to hit the under cus they feel its going over. I have donethis since November, and I am about 63%...Yes I record every bet i make, just to see how i have done.
Click to expand...
 
Originally Posted by dfresh244

Originally Posted by Kiddin Like Jason

Thanks for the advice, everybody; I appreciate it. I understand the basics of over/under and all that; I always pay attention to lines even though I've never bet before. What I don't understand is the return.

For example, if I bet $50? on the total points of the Hornets/Magic game tonight, how much money would I win?

Also, what would be a worthwhile amount of money for a beginner to start with?
Click to expand...

You would be risking 50 to win 45 dollars. The standard "juice" on a spread -110 or 1.1 to 1. This basically insures the book makes money regardless because lets say you do two bets at 50 a piece and you go 1-1. You'd be down a net of 5 dollars. Hope that makes sense.
By the way hope you're taking over 208 in that Orlando/NO game champ
glasses.gif
Click to expand...
To just further expand on this concept - and you can really expand on this, there are whole college courses taught on subject matter similar to this,and books written about it - but here's a little explanation on the matter..
09. What is "vig"?

Vig, which is short for vigorish, is a term used to describe the book's theoretical edge, or commission, on each betting online wager. It is also sometimes referred to as the book's hold, particularly when looking at futures markets. For spread betting, balanced action would result in 11 dollars bet on each side (as an example) for a total of 22. As long as there isn't a push, the winner would be paid 21 and the book would keep 1. This 1/22 that is the book's commission is called the vig.
Most express it as a percentage. In this case, for spread betting, it is 4.545%. To compare to some popular casino gambling games, the vig in craps is approx. 1/72 (1.389%) and in roulette gambling it is 2/38 (5.26%) on a double zero wheel. It is a representation of the house's long term betting edge over time based on the mathematics of the game. Each and every gambling strategy has this "vig" inherent in it, barring a push.

In order for a bettor to win, he must win an adjusted percentage high enough to overcome or counteract this vig. For spread betting, at typical "lay prices" of -110 each way, that magic number is 52.38%. This break even percentage is what you need to surpass long term to win.

One interesting side note is that the farther away from even a money sports betting line goes, if the differential is held constant, the less vig is inherent. That is, the sports book is skimming a higher percentage of the players' money (assuming balanced action) on sports betting lines of -110/-110 than -130/+110, -160/+140, etc. This is why books have "break points" along the way where the differential is increased. So it might be a 20 cent differential up to -149/+129, then a 30 cent differential up to -199/+169, then 40 cents, etc.


In theory - books want the exact same amount of money on every single bet, so that they can pay the winners with the losers money and keep all the Vig forthemselves... if more people win than lose, they have to pull extra money out of their pockets to pay all the extra winners and end up taking a loss on thebets.

This is, again in theory, why lines move, in order to try to achieve that balance and find the true equilibrium point in how the public sees the bet... This isof course, just in theory since we all know sometimes books make movements for reasons we cannot understand as outsiders.

But it's interesting to realize that the line sits where it is due to public perception - if a line is very soft, it WILL get hammered by the public andthe books will be forced to move it or risk having to pay out to all those winners.

That's part of why simply going out and trying to predict the correct side of a line or spread isn't necessarily the best strategy for sports betting -you're essentially flipping a coin at that point.

You must seek out value - places where you think the line is too high or too low, or the price (the vig) being offeredis very worthwhile in terms of how you value the line.
Click to expand...
 
By the way hope you're taking over 208 in that Orlando/NO game champ
glasses.gif

It was only an example.
laugh.gif


Strictly from a sports perspective and not a bidding one (and, of course, just my opinion), over 209.5 sounds pretty logical.

The first time they played, the total was 183. Chris Paul didn't play, which obviously severely changes so many things. In his absence, Pargo scored 18. MoPete and Ely scored 21, which isn't going to happen. On the other hand, Peja, West, and Chandler only combined for 39 points.
  • 183 - Peterson and Ely's 21 = 162. They'll combine for maybe 7 points tonight, so you're at 169.
  • Take out Pargo's 18, that's 151. Say he scores 10 tonight, 161.
  • Remove the 39 from the big three besides Paul, 122. Add about 58 for tonight, 180.
  • Take out the 10 total points from Bobby Jackson, Rasual Butler, and Hilton Armstrong because none of them will play, 170.
  • Add the contributions of Paul, Wells, and Wright, and surely they'll get you the 40 points combined that you would need for the over.
  • Looking at the Magic, whom I don't watch a ton or anything, what they put up in the last meeting seems pretty similar to what I would expect, but I'm not completely confident in that.
We'll see.

P.S. I didn't actually bet on it, just throwing my thoughts out there, see if I'm cut out for this.
laugh.gif
Click to expand...
 
^^^ yo just do some practice....write down what you "would" bet on and then watch n see the outcome of it
 
Originally Posted by Paul Is On Tilt

Dang... looks like I have to close my Sportsbook.com account
laugh.gif
. But seriously, I won money from them a month ago and still haven't received my check in the mail
mad.gif
. My friend cashed out 2 weeks ago and received his check earlier this week
mad.gif
.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Checks from sportsbook usually take about 2 weeks. I know there are better books out there like 5dimes and The Greek, but I started on sportsbookand I haven't felt the need to change.
Other advice: it's good to have an account with multiple sports books so that you can search for the bestline. Usually the lines are the same, but sometimes there is about a .5 point difference, and if you bet, you know that hook can be HUGE.
 
By the way hope you're taking over 208 in that Orlando/NO game champ
In basketball the over/under kills me. It always seems easy to gauge what it will by the teams playing, but I just haven't had great luckwith that.
Click to expand...
 
Don't bet if you're only gonna throw 55 to win 50 on a game...you'll have to hit at like 75% to win 1,000...


And nobody here will hit over 55%
 
these are the bets i placed tonight....i went to the local bookie to bet though

UF -4.5

no/orl under 209.5

nj/phi over 202

chi/bos under 197.5
 
Originally Posted by Uter Zorker

Don't bet if you're only gonna throw 55 to win 50 on a game...you'll have to hit at like 75% to win 1,000...


And nobody here will hit over 55%
Click to expand...

so you should bet big?
 
Originally Posted by FlyDaily

these are the bets i placed tonight....i went to the local bookie to bet though

UF -4.5

no/orl under 209.5

nj/phi over 202

chi/bos under 197.5
Click to expand...

Chi/Bos finished at 198
eek.gif

NJ/Phi finished at 207
NO/Orl finished at 195
 
westcoastgotti...thanks for the faith.

i hate watching games that i bet on. i normally just make my bets and check at night before i sleep.

anybody bet baseball?

i crunched some numbers. i was thinking about betting on one team every single game of the season. and as long as they finish with 90+ wins i have a winningseason.
i did this by averaging ML values (which came out to be about -150, since the team is most likely to be a powerhouse)

any input?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

The ultimate sneaker enthusiast community.

NikeTalk was created as a way of giving back to both the sneaker enthusiast community and to the greater global community of which we are all a part.

NikeTalk is NOT affiliated with Nike Inc. in any way, shape, or form. All opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Nike, Inc.

© 1999-2024 NikeTalk.com

Share this page

Back
Top Bottom