The 2014-2015 NBA Season Thread. Lock It Up Please: The Golden State Warriors Are The Champions

[pmatic]

*Facepalm*

 

[MVP]

ProBasketballTalk ‏@nbcprobballtalk 9m9 minutes ago
Jeanie Buss: ‘Any free agent that would be afraid to play with Kobe Bryant is probably a loser’ http://wp.me/p14QT0-31oW

Yeah, I'm not sure that's exactly how I would have phrased my response if I was Jeanie, but good for her for supporting her guy, I guess.

Dwert

 

[Bert.]

ProBasketballTalk ‏@nbcprobballtalk 9m9 minutes ago
Jeanie Buss: ‘Any free agent that would be afraid to play with Kobe Bryant is probably a loser’ http://wp.me/p14QT0-31oW

Yeah, I'm not sure that's exactly how I would have phrased my response if I was Jeanie, but good for her for supporting her guy, I guess.

its the truth

 

[do work son]

Not wanting to play with Kobe =/= being scared of playing with Kobe. Good spin move jeanie

 

[bhzmafia14]

Bledsoe would miss the shot

 

[awwsome]

Would like to talk to Jeanie privately about the Lakers going forward.

 

[lawdog1]

its the truth

Even if it is, I don't think it's a good look for one of the top management people in a prominent NBA franchise to be calling other NBA players "losers."

 

[Moheezy]

Wouldn't be surprised if Kobe became the owner of the Sixers after retirement

Kobe and Will Smith owning the team.

Jaden can be the mascot.

 

[bhzmafia14]

Wow @ Marc being ranked #14 on the ESPN NBA Rank. Those rankings should be taking with a grain of salt, but crazy at the amount of respect he's getting. I'm praying he becomes the aggressive center I've been wanting him to be.

Skinny Marc + Health + Aggressiveness :x

 

[nelson999]

Not wanting to play with Kobe =/= being scared of playing with Kobe. Good spin move jeanie

Yea i think most people would probably prefer not to play with over the hill giant contract Kobe

 

[lawdog1]

Would like to talk to Jeanie privately about the Lakers going forward.

View media item 1229589

 

[grandtheftbike]

Would like to talk to Jeanie privately about the Lakers going forward.

 

[Bert.]

Wow @ Marc being ranked #14 on the ESPN NBA Rank. Those rankings should be taking with a grain of salt, but crazy at the amount of respect he's getting. I'm praying he becomes the aggressive center I've been wanting him to be.

Skinny Marc + Health + Aggressiveness :x

SO you want him ranked higher or lower?

 

[sea manup]

damn.. dude got shook into the next area code

almost ended up at USC 

 

[lawdog1]

You win. Your Phil pic was better than mine.

 

[finallyfamous]

did he really wow. Was looking forward to him and Cavs fans arguing about him jumping on the wagon

thank god.

 

[clyde the glide]

Was dude trying to be funny? How do u get crossed that bad?

 

[finallyfamous]

Looked like he was just finishing up the suicide drill.

 

[bravelude]

View media item 1229589

PJ self face knuckle . gif

 

[bravelude]

Was dude trying to be funny? How do u get crossed that bad?

dat aint no cross, son was just acting. looked funny. lol

 

[pmatic]

Cavs top new pecking order in East

It's that time when we hardworking analysts tie our summer efforts together and declare how each conference has rearranged itself for the coming season. And the Eastern Conference in particular has undergone a major makeover, with the Cavaliers -- now featuring LeBron James and Kevin Love -- transforming from doormat to title contender.

For me, this exercise is actually the punctuation mark for my summer position rankings. That is, I've taken the methodology introduced in that series, and pulled it together in a model to estimate team performance.

To extract these projected win baselines from my system, NBAPET, I've used my old methodology based on similarity scores and athletic factors to calculate how many possessions each player will have while he's on the floor and how efficiently he will use them.

This year, I integrated real plus-minus into the process to estimate how players impact the possessions they don't use. Using play-by-play data from Synergy Sports Technologies, I've replicated this process for both ends of the floor. The last two steps are familiar: Estimate playing time based on durability trends and role, then run the preliminary win estimates though a season simulator 1,000 times.

What we're left with are the numbers below, which represent the average number of projected wins for each team in 2014-15.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (Projected wins: 61.7)

If the bet is whether the Cavaliers win the 2015 Finals or the field, you take the field. Nevertheless, it's hard to imagine how an objective forecast system would assign better title odds to a team other than Cleveland. On paper, the big four of LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters comprised a near-perfect offense, one that should rank in the top five in all the four factors. The defense projects pretty well too, though there is plenty of reason to be skeptical of that part of the prediction. We have six months to nitpick about the Cavs; right now they are have about a one-in-three chance of winning it all.

2. Chicago Bulls (Wins: 55.4)

But if the Cavs don't win it all, it seems likely it'll be due to running into a powerful Chicago team in the Eastern Conference finals. In that scenario, the Bulls get just enough stops with Tom Thibodeau's defense, while Derrick Rose leads an offense with better depth and versatility to exploit the Cleveland defense. Chicago has to answer some questions of its own. Will Rose be Rose? (He certainly looked like it on Monday.) Will the second unit be able to rebound and defend at a Thibodeau-approved level?

3. Atlanta Hawks (Wins: 52.7)

While the consensus seems to be that Toronto and Washington will battle it out for the third seed in the East, NBAPET likes a Hawks team that should roll out an elite offense. Only Cleveland projects to have a more efficient attack in the East thanks to the multitude of long-range shooters led by Kyle Korver. Yet don't sleep on the Atlanta defense, which adds perimeter stopper Thabo Sefolosha and welcomes back its backbone in Al Horford.

4. Washington Wizards (Wins: 48.6)

The Wizards indeed project to build on their progress from last season and should have one of the better point-prevention squads in the conference. Washington should control the glass with its deep frontcourt and perimeter players who rebound well, and John Wall causes havoc in the passing lanes. The offense should continue to grow thanks to continuity and another year of growth from Wall and Bradley Beal.

5. Miami Heat (Wins: 44.6)

Obviously this is going to be a very different Heat team, and you have to worry that despite all our efforts, it's impossible to filter out all the LeBron effects from the recent numbers that serve as the basis for these forecasts. Still, Miami comes out as a solid defensive squad that forces turnovers and scores enough to win behind Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. A fifth straight Finals run looks unlikely, but so too does a collapse.

6. Toronto Raptors (Wins: 43.6)

Yeah, this is an awfully disappointing forecast for a Toronto team that won 48 games last season and returns the fourth-most minutes of any team in the league. Part of it is that NBAPET doesn't buy the full breadth of DeMar DeRozan's leap forward last season. Part of it sees regression from Kyle Lowry's career campaign. The Raptors will need more consistent bench play and improvements from young starters Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross.

7. Charlotte Hornets (Wins: 41.4)

Charlotte will be hard-pressed to field an efficient offense, though the defense should again be strong. Metrics don't love incoming rotation players like Marvin Williams and Brian Roberts, and NBAPET sees Lance Stephenson as solid, but short of star level. That said, the young group of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller, P.J. Hairston and Noah Vonleh gives this Hornets roster a lot of upside.

8. Detroit Pistons (Wins: 38.4)

There is more talent on this season's roster, but Stan Van Gundy is tasked with turning last year's lemons into lemonade. The addition of shooters Jodie Meeks, D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler to go with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Singler gives Detroit the fourth-best offensive forecast in the conference. That will only happen if the foundation of Andre Drummond, Josh Smith and Greg Monroe figure out how to produce in what will likely be a three-man frontcourt rotation.

9. New York Knicks (Wins: 37.0)

NBAPET doesn't know what the Triangle offense is, but it still likes the Knicks' offense thanks to the addition of Jose Calderon to a group that was pretty efficient just two seasons ago. The defense shapes up as the worst in the conference, but this season is about installing the offense and getting positioned for next summer.

10. Brooklyn Nets (Wins: 33.7)

If Brook Lopez can get 1,500 or more minutes, the offense should be solid. Beyond that, we're talking about the league's second-oldest roster with no real defensive upside. Nets fans have to hang their hopes on a return to prominence from Deron Williams.

11. Indiana Pacers (Wins: 29.2)

What a difference an offseason makes. The defense, without Paul George and Stephenson, projects as the sixth-best in the East. Frank Vogel can probably coax a better performance than that. But there seems to be no hope for Indiana to feature efficient offense. The glimmer of hope is an early return by George while the Pacers hang around contention for the last playoff seed.

12. Milwaukee Bucks (Wins: 24.4)

The Bucks project to finish 13th on defense in the East. Given the length and athletic ability of youngsters Larry Sanders, Giannis Antetokounmpo and John Henson, new coach Jason Kidd might be able to do a lot better. Milwaukee is likely lottery-bound once again, but the trip there should be a lot more fun this time around.

13. Orlando Magic (Wins: 23.5)
Orlando needs to take a step forward as it's been quite awhile since Dwight Howard departed. Everything rides on the young group of Nikola Vucevic, Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon getting better not just individually, but as a new foundation for the Magic. Right now, NBAPET is just not sure what that's going to look like.

14. Boston Celtics (Wins: 23.4)

If you think this forecast looks bad, you should see it without Rajon Rondo. There are some nice pieces in place, and Brad Stevens is a budding star as an NBA coach, but this remains a team early in the rebuilding process. Celtics boss Danny Ainge still has work to do.

15. Philadelphia 76ers (Wins: 17.1)

General manager Sam Hinkie continues to accumulate his best team off the court in the form of draft picks and injured players. Top 2014 pick Joel Embiid won't see the light of day this season and the Sixers can't count on an early-season flurry of wins to get them to the 19 they achieved last season. They're last on both ends of the floor.

And now the West coast:

Lakers last in West pecking order

Today we finish off my NBAPET forecast for the coming season with the Western Conference.

As I wrote yesterday -- where I explained how the projections below are created -- this exercise is actually the punctuation mark for my summer position rankings. That is, I've taken the methodology introduced in that series, and pulled it together in a model to estimate team performance. We did the Eastern Conference yesterday.

1. Los Angeles Clippers (Wins: 61.2)

If LeBron James doesn't turn out to be the clear-cut MVP front-runner, Chris Paul could emerge to fill the void that may have opened because of Kevin Durant's bad foot. And if it's not him, it could be Blake Griffin, who is still young enough to see some growth in his game.

The big difference on the Clips is new backup center Spencer Hawes, who not only fills the biggest hole on the L.A. roster, he adds some much-needed floor spacing. Hawes serves as a tipping point for a talented roster that has been on the verge of moving from really good to great.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder (Wins: 59.5)

I'm an optimistic guy, especially this time of the year, so I went with the short end of Durant's projected absence of at least six weeks. Doing so gives the Thunder the West's third-ranked offense. As long as Durant and Russell Westbrook are soaking up most of the possessions, it's likely a good forecast.

That said, the longer Durant is out, the harder it gets for OKC in the loaded West. The Thunder's title odds don't seriously start to diminish until January. After that, OKC's odds of making the postseason start to degrade, and you can't win a title if you don't make the playoffs.

3. San Antonio Spurs (Wins: 55.

Ho to the hum. The Spurs are taking this continuity thing to a whole new level. Barring an unexpected roster move late in preseason, San Antonio will return the players who accounted for 100 percent of its playoff minutes during last year's championship run. The only thing that holds the Spurs' forecast down to a mere 55.8 wins is minutes. Last season Gregg Popovich kept all of his players under 30 MPG.

4. Golden State Warriors (Wins: 55.1)

NBAPET was a little slow to catch onto the Warriors, but no more. This is a title contender. Golden State projects to merely middle of the pack on offense -- a residue of the past couple of seasons when the focus was on defense. However, the system likes Klay Thompson to break out. It's early, but in the preseason, Thompson has looked like an All-NBA player, and the Warriors' offense overall has been utterly dynamic.

5. Dallas Mavericks (Wins: 53.5)

NBAPET isn't yet able to account for the wonderful things Rick Carlisle is about to do for newcomers such as Chandler Parsons, Jameer Nelson, Tyson Chandler and maybe even the mercurial Charlie Villanueva. On the merits of the pre-Carlisle forecasts of the newcomers alone, the Mavericks figure to be an improved team. Chandler and Parsons should give a much-needed boost to the defense.

6. Houston Rockets (Wins: 52.4)

The virtual exchange of Parsons for Trevor Ariza in the Rockets' lineup figures to be a wash at worst in the short term, though funny things can happen with new combinations of players. The Rockets' baseline is diminished by an uncertain bench that will miss the contributions of Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin. There is some upside in the young talent on the roster that spent time developing in the D-League, but it could be a problem.

7. New Orleans Pelicans (Wins: 46.7)

Anthony Davis, if he stays healthy, will challenge for first-team All-NBA honors. Just as important is the likely regression in collective health, with Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson back to assume key roles. And the addition of Asik to protect the lane and free up Davis to wreak havoc on the defensive end was one of the best moves of the offseason.

8. Portland Trail Blazers (Wins: 45.

The Trail Blazers retain one of the most rock-solid starting fives in the NBA. However, the bench could well be a problem, just as it has been the past couple of years. People in Rip City are excited about the addition of Chris Kaman. NBAPET is not. Steve Blake needs to have a big season, and the Blazers need one or two of their young guys to take a step forward.

9. Phoenix Suns (Wins: 43.5)

The Suns almost certainly would have projected to take a step back even if they had retained Channing Frye, a crucial part of their surprising 2013-14 season. That's simply the effect of statistical regression because players such as Goran Dragic outperformed their baseline expectation to a startling degree. The loss of Frye hurts, but Markieff Morris and Anthony Tolliver can replace him in tandem.

10. Memphis Grizzlies (Wins: 41.2)

The Grizzlies are getting old at a couple of key spots, especially at the power forward position manned by Zach Randolph. The addition of Vince Carter helps, but Memphis still lacks a clear answer at small forward, and the loss of Mike Miller's sharpshooting will hurt.

11. Denver Nuggets (Wins: 37.4)

The Nuggets should be incredibly deep with Danilo Gallinari and the rest of Denver's wounded legions returning to action. Denver's focus is on defense, and with so many quality athletes, the Nuggets can get back to pressuring teams in the mile-high air of their home arena. Just as important though is heightened offensive efficiency, a decline that was somewhat masked last season by one of the league's fastest tempos.

12. Minnesota Timberwolves (Wins: 30.0)

The combination of Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett is an awfully nice consolation prize for losing Kevin Love. That doesn't help a great deal for this season, however. With Ricky Rubio due for an extension, the most important part of the season will be to see how he does when asked to be even more than a prime facilitator and impact defender.

13. Utah Jazz (Wins: 25.7)

The Jazz are all-in with an incredibly young rotation comprised of recent first-round picks. What Utah needs is for a couple of these players to rise head-and-shoulders above their teammates. Could be Gordon Hayward. Could be Derrick Favors or Enes Kanter. Could be Trey Burke or Dante Exum. Hopefully new coach Quin Snyder can establish a distinctive brand of hoops befitting all this young talent.

14. Sacramento Kings (Wins: 24.7)

If NBAPET had its own Twitter account, I'd probably fire off an angry tweet insisting the Kings will be way better than this. And I think they will be. The offense needs to withstand the inexplicable loss of Isaiah Thomas. The defense projects to be woeful. Still, a team with a player as good as DeMarcus Cousins has to win more than 25 games. Right? These damned stat geeks.

15. Los Angeles Lakers (Wins: 22.\
The Lakers are held back by the recent health woes and AARP ages of Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash. Expecting a bounce back by one or both of these all-time greats is more a matter of faith than recent objective evidence. If they play well and stay relatively healthy, it's possible the Lakers could fashion a decent offense. Yet the defense might be best imagined by thinking of that old toy hockey game, where the guys with sticks spin around in place forever and ever.

 

[lawdog1]

I wouldn't put the Spurs below the Clips and Thunder. They're going to have the best record in the West again -- unless Pop decides to rest Ginobli and Duncan for the whole regular season or something.

 

[bhzmafia14]

The Grizzlies are getting old at a couple of key spots, especially at the power forward position manned by Zach Randolph. The addition of Vince Carter helps, but Memphis still lacks a clear answer at small forward, and the loss of Mike Miller's sharpshooting will hurt.

Why does it matter if your 3rd best player is getting old when your 2 best players are in their prime?

Also, why would the loss of Mike Miller hurt when VC is replacing Miller's shooting? I'm not going to argue about being ranked 10th, but at least give a better analysis .

 

[awwsome]

Blake might be 2nd in MVP voting this year depending how KD comes back.

His game is so ugly yet fun to watch at the same time, jumper is looking very real now though.

Soon as he's hitting that corner 3 it's over.

 

[awwsome]

I wouldn't put the Spurs below the Clips and Thunder. They're going to have the best record in the West again -- unless Pop decides to rest Ginobli and Duncan for the whole regular season or something.

Wouldn't put it past him, they would probably still get the 3rd seed.

Pop is a God.