The 2015 NBA Draft Thread: Draft Day Is Here

Yall gonna be tight when the Lakers in the top 3, NBA ain't gonna let their cash cow suffer too long.
 
For the conspiracy theorists:
N.B.A. Draft Lottery Fates Are Sealed in Secret Before Envelopes Are Opened

Until Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum opens the envelopes Tuesday at the N.B.A. draft lottery at the New York Hilton, he will not know the winner.

Nor will the hopeful representatives from each team, nor the assembled members of the news media, nor the millions watching the revelation on television.

But about 25 people will know because the actual draft lottery will be over, having taken place about an hour earlier in another room of the hotel.

The annual opening of the envelopes is essentially a made-for-TV sideshow; the actual selection of the winning teams takes place in strict secrecy.

The site for the little-seen but crucial event will be a conference room elsewhere in the hotel. A drawing of Ping-Pong balls from a machine like those used in state lotteries will be witnessed by a representative of each team — not the same ones who sit at desks under television lights at the formal announcement — and a few members of the news media. Their cellphones will be confiscated, and no contact with the outside world will be allowed.

Once the drawing is complete, three people will leave the room: two N.B.A. legal officials and Denise Pelli, a partner of the accounting firm Ernst & Young. They will go to a second room, where 14 envelopes and logo cards for each team will be waiting. Everyone else in the first room must remain sequestered until after the televised ceremony.

The envelopes will be prepared, and then Ms. Pelli will be escorted by security guards to a third room, where the ceremony will take place. The N.B.A. officials will remain behind; Ms. Pelli will be the only person in the room who knows what is in the envelopes.

The lottery will be conducted on a machine manufactured by Smartplay International, which is also responsible for weighing and measuring the 14 Ping-Pong balls that are pulled from it.

A timekeeper with a digital stopwatch will stand with his back to the machine. Precisely 20 seconds after it starts, he will signal to the operator to draw a ball. Further signals will come at 10-second intervals until four balls have been pulled.

Although there are 14 teams in the lottery and 14 Ping-Pong balls, that match is just a coincidence. The number of Ping-Pong balls was chosen because there are exactly 1,001 ways that four numbers can be drawn from a set of 14. Each of those combinations is assigned to a team. The Minnesota Timberwolves, who had the worst record this season and have a 25 percent chance of getting the top pick, receive the first 250 combinations: 1, 2, 3, 4; 1, 2, 3, 5; 1, 2, 3, 6 — all the way to 1, 7, 12, 14. The Knicks, the next-worst team, get the next 199 combinations, and so on down to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have only five combinations and an 0.5 percent chance at the top pick.

The 1,001st and final combination — 11, 12, 13, 14 — is unassigned; if it is drawn, the balls will be put back and drawn again. As in most lotteries, the order in which the balls are drawn does not matter — 1, 3, 9, 12 is considered the same as 3, 12, 9, 1.

Officials will hastily consult a chart and announce to the select few in the room which team has won the top pick. Then the balls will be returned to the hopper, and the second pick will be drawn, by the same process, and then the third. If a team is repeated, that draw will be disregarded and redone until a new team comes up.

Once the top three picks are determined, the lottery will be over. Slots 4 through 14 will be assigned based solely on record. As a result, the Timberwolves, even if they are not pulled in the three draws, will get no worse than the fourth pick.

For Knicks fans, the math looks like this: They have a 19.9 percent chance to have one of their combinations pulled for the top pick, an 18.8 percent chance for pick No. 2, and a 17.1 percent chance for pick No. 3 — in total, a 55.8 percent chance at a top-three pick.

If their combinations are not drawn, they will slip to No. 4 (31.9 percent) or No. 5 (12.3 percent), but no lower.

Because of the lottery’s complexity and because revealing the picks in reverse order from 14 to 1 is more dramatic, it is the envelope-opening ceremony that is televised live, not the drawing that really determines who gets the top pick.

The N.B.A.’s method for determining who will get the top pick has grown more complex over time. Before there was the draft lottery, there was a coin flip. Beginning in 1966, the last-place teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences tossed for the right to the No. 1 pick; the loser got No. 2.

In 1985, after mutterings that teams might be losing games intentionally to have a 50-50 chance at the top pick, the league instituted its first lottery: a simple random draw among the seven worst teams. Each team had an envelope, and David Stern, the commissioner at the time, pulled one out of a drum. When he opened the envelope to reveal the Knicks’ logo, it fueled unsubstantiated conspiracy theories that linger to this day: that the envelope had been marked, or even refrigerated, to tip off Mr. Stern.

Since 1990, a weighted system has been used, and it has been tinkered with a few times over the years. Though the system has changed, the grumbling has never stopped. There were those who said, without any evidence, that the Cleveland Cavaliers’ victories in the last two lotteries were engineered to compensate the team for losing LeBron James to free agency.

The lottery exists, in part, to discourage teams from losing games and thereby assuring themselves of the first pick. Yet in many fans’ eyes, there was more tanking this season than ever.

But the lottery does seem to prevent tankers from being unduly rewarded. The last time the team with the worst record got the No. 1 pick was 2004, when Orlando received it.

When the envelopes are opened Tuesday night, it will be a dramatic moment, and the futures of several franchises will be altered. But even as hopeful executives are interviewed and fans cross their fingers, the drama will have already occurred, thanks to a few bouncing Ping-Pong balls in a small conference room downstairs.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/18/s...in-secrecy.html?ref=sports&smid==tw-nytsports
 
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The last time the team with the worst record got the No. 1 pick was 2004, when Orlando received it.
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And ******* Cleveland has had THREE since then.
 
The Plight of No. 1: Leading off NBA Draft Is an Honor, but Often a Curse, Too

D'Angelo Russell knows how talented he is—"The best player in the draft," he says, with unwavering conviction—and he knows what it would mean to be the NBA's No. 1 pick next month.

"It would be a blessing," said Russell, the dazzling Ohio State guard.

Who could argue? The No. 1 pick is assured instant fame, endorsement offers and the richest rookie contract—about $26 million over four years. And then there's the designation itself: No. 1.

Number one. Is there any cooler title? It's the universal goal, the rallying cry of athletes and strivers in every field. "I'm No. 1!" "We're No. 1!" Being chosen No. 1 conveys a prestige all its own—a notion ingrained in our psyches the first time we line up to be picked for kickball at recess.

For an NBA rookie, there is no greater honor than to be No. 1. And no greater burden.

"It's just the pressure, man," said Derrick Rose, the No. 1 pick in 2008. "It's a lot of pressure being in that No. 1 spot."

To be No. 1 is to be labeled a can't-miss star, a superstar, a savior. Expectations are astronomical, and patience is rare.

The No. 1 pick is measured against every player drafted behind him, and against every other No. 1 in NBA history. A No. 1 can have a perfectly productive career, and still be deemed a "bust" if he fails to reach stardom. When you're drafted No. 1, you are No. 1 forever—and forever judged through that prism.

The label fueled Rose and John Wall, dogged Andrew Bogut and crushed Kwame Brown. LeBron James delivered instantly on his promise. Dwight Howard took a few years to get there. Andrea Bargnani never did.

On Tuesday, the NBA will conduct a lottery to determine which team gets the No. 1 pick in the June 25 draft—and that team will then decide which prospect is worthy of this thorny crown.

Russell is in the mix, along with Duke's Jahlil Okafor and Kentucky's Karl Towns. All should heed the advice given to Andrew Wiggins, the No. 1 pick of 2014:

"It's not where you start, it's where you finish," Wiggins said. "That just in my mind replays, for me—just keep patient and keep working at what I'm doing."

It is rarely that easy. We live in an era of snap judgments and hot takes, where every misstep becomes a Vine, a list and a blog post, and fodder for TV scream fests. Tuning out the negative feedback loops is nearly impossible.

A Google search for "NBA draft busts" delivers 200,000 hits. And although some lower lottery picks turn up on those lists (Adam Morrison, Darko Milicic), it's the hapless No. 1s who are the most memorable—and who evoke the greatest winces.

Think Pervis Ellison (1989, Sacramento Kings), Joe Smith (1995, Golden State Warriors), Michael Olowokandi (1998, Los Angeles Clippers), Bargnani (2006, Toronto Raptors) and Brown (2001, Washington Wizards).

For them, the honor of being No. 1 was thoroughly eclipsed by the burden of expectations. It's an experience they would rather not re-live. B/R reached out, via intermediaries, to Olowokandi, Brown and Smith, for interviews; none responded. (Bargnani grumbled through a 30-second interview on the topic last year.)

But those who have played with, coached and watched the No. 1s over the years say there is no doubt: their situation is unique.

"Is there more pressure? Absolutely," said Doug Collins, a former No. 1 pick himself (1973) who was Brown's first NBA coach, in Washington.

The Wizards' fascination with Brown was, at the time, completely understandable. Here was a 6'11", 240-pound preps star, who combined raw power with a guard's shooting touch. He drew comparisons to Kevin Garnett. Scouts and executives across the NBA were enamored of him. If the Wizards—who also considered prep stars Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry—hadn't misfired on Brown, another team with a top-five pick would have.

But the Wizards did take Brown, slapping him with a designation he could never live up to, or handle emotionally. That became clear in the middle of his rookie season.

"We went through a stretch there where I actually had Kwame take a couple games off, just to try to relieve some of the pressure," Collins said. "His face was breaking out.…I wish I could have done a better job taking that pressure off of him. I blame myself."

Every NBA career is shaped to some degree by luck and circumstances—by the team that drafts you, by the coach, by teammates, by the medical staff—all of which can contribute, positively or negatively, to a young player's career. None of these things, including draft position, are in a rookie's control.

The highest picks are generally awarded to the worst franchises. So the No. 1 pick, by design, perennially lands with a losing team (and sometimes a colossally dysfunctional team), and then is asked to play savior.

The player doesn't choose to be No. 1, but it's the player who takes the brunt of the criticism and ridicule when he falls short.

"If you were (allowed) to sit on the bench two, three years, develop, like some of the other young guys, who knows how your game would develop," said Elton Brand, the No. 1 pick in 1999. "But they're like, 'Look, we need this production out of you right now.' And if you're not ready or you're not having success, that pressure definitely weighs on you."

Over time, Brown matured into a solid post defender, playing 12 seasons for seven teams, and reuniting with Collins in Philadelphia in 2012-13. In the end, he was a productive rotation player.

"I wish he would have been more willing to accept that as a younger player," Collins said. "Hey, defend and rebound and bring those kind of things you can bring. And then let your offensive game grow. But there's so much pressure on those guys to want to score."

What if Brown had been taken 10th in 2001? Or 15th? We would see his career in a much kinder light. And Brown, freed from the burdens of being No. 1, might have evolved much differently.

"I don't think there's any question, that had he been out of the scrutiny, that maybe it could have been: Day by day, let's just get better, let's put down the fundamentals," Collins said.

The same could be said for Bargnani, who was taken No. 1 in 2006, by the Toronto Raptors.

"I think if Andrea was the 10th pick, he would have been fine," said Sam Mitchell, the former Raptors head coach. "I just think being No. 1, it was just maybe too much for him.…I think the problem was, he didn't think he deserved to be No. 1."

Contrast Bargnani's experience with that of Paul George, the Indiana Pacers' star forward. Today, George is one of the league's 15 best players. But he was largely unheralded when the Pacers took him with the 10th pick in 2010, and he therefore got the benefit of growing into his stardom gradually, without the scrutiny or spotlight of a No. 1 pick.

The challenge of high expectations is as much psychological as physical. Every top pick has established his skill set by the time he is drafted. His success or failure often comes down to other qualities: work ethic, intelligence, confidence. He also needs a head coaching with the guts to say: Don't worry about stats or win totals.

That's what Pelicans coach Monty Williams and his staff told Anthony Davis after taking him first in 2012.

"They told me from the beginning to go out there and play—don't worry about trying to carry this team, do any of that right now,'" Davis said. "I haven't been thinking about it. I've just been going out there and having fun, and I think it's helped me out."

This is in fact the right approach, according to Dr. Charles Maher, a sports psychologist who has worked with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The No. 1 label, and the expectations that come with it, are "a distraction," Maher said, "because it's always there. It's hard to get rid of.

"The natural tendency is to want to live up to that, to do more, to really perform well," Maher said. "But in the process of doing that, they're thinking about outcomes…rather than what I refer to as the process of playing basketball."

Strip away the labels, and every career looks a little different. Today, Andrew Bogut is one of the NBA's top rim protectors, the anchor of the Warriors' top-ranked defense and a key to their championship hopes. But when he was drafted No. 1 in 2005 by Milwaukee—ahead of point guards Chris Paul (fourth) and Deron Williams (third)—Bogut became an instant target.

"I got it from Day 1," Bogut said. "(ESPN's) Stephen A. Smith, before I even played an NBA game, has hated me. So it didn't really bother me. You're going to have your critics, you're going to have people that love you. But I'm not huge stat guy, which kind of hurts me a little bit, being a No. 1 pick."

By his own estimation, Bogut "probably wasn't ready for the league" when he declared for the draft. But he was guaranteed to be a top-five pick and could not pass up the opportunity.

Although he could never compete with Paul's career, Bogut had become one of the NBA's better two-way centers—averaging 15.9 points and 10.2 rebounds in 2009-10—before a brutal series of injuries set him back.

So how do we define Bogut now? He's never been an All-Star, nor averaged 20 points, nor won a rebounding title. But he led the NBA in defensive RPM (real plus-minus) this season and ranked among the top rim protectors in the league. He is not a star, but he is certainly not a bust, even by No. 1 pick standards.

"I play a role on a great team," Bogut said. "If you pick up a stats sheet, have me on (your) fantasy teams, I suck, you know? But I know the role I play for this team, and I'm happy in my own skin doing that. It's not about, for me, being on bad teams and putting up big numbers. I know what that end of the stick is, and you end up going home in April."

Brand has traveled a similar path, albeit with better stats. Chosen No. 1 by the Bulls in 1999, Brand first had to deal with the specter of Michael Jordan, who had just retired a year earlier. And although Brand produced immediately, averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds as a rookie, the Bulls lost 65 games, which fed another unflattering narrative: that Brand was a player who put up big numbers on bad teams.

The 1999 class was a talented group, featuring Steve Francis (No. 2), Baron Davis (No. 3), Lamar Odom (No. 4), Richard Hamilton (No. 7) and Shawn Marion (No. 9). That meant every night, someone was whispering to Brand, "Did you see Francis get 30? Did you see Odom's triple-double?"

"And you feel that pressure, too," Brand said.

There have been busts at No. 2 and 3, and throughout the lottery. But those names are more quickly forgotten.

The preps-to-pros wave of the late 1990s, followed by the one-and-done wave of the last 10 years, has made the draft all the more difficult for teams. Today's top prospects are generally younger and less seasoned than rookies of earlier generations. So it often takes longer for a No. 1 pick to blossom.

It's rare now for a rookie to lead his team to the playoffs, as Rose did in 2009. It took Howard (No. 1 in 2004) three years to make the playoffs. Davis (No. 1 in 2012) was a star by his second season, but also needed three years to make the postseason. Wall (No. 1 in 2010) was hampered by injuries and lousy rosters for three years, finally making the playoffs in his fourth season.

"You're No. 1, you're going to definitely go through some tough situations, with a team that's rebuilding," Wall said. "And they want you to end up becoming…that franchise type of guy. And it takes time. And you have to deal with it."

No. 1 picks offer no guarantee of success. Of the 20 players taken No. 1 from 1990-2009, just three led teams to championships: Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan and LeBron James. And James and O'Neal did so after leaving the teams that drafted them. (Glenn Robinson, No. 1 in 1994, won a ring as a Spurs reserve in 2005.)

Fourteen of the 20 did make at least one All-Star team. But half of them had fairly ordinary careers.

Some No. 1s were derailed by injuries (Greg Oden, 2007), while others either lacked the proper drive or the right support or simply were not as talented as the scouts believed.

The experience is still fresh for Wiggins, who was recently named Rookie of the Year after averaging 16.9 points per game this season. Drafted by Cleveland last June, Wiggins was later traded to Minnesota for three-time All-Star Kevin Love, adding another layer of pressure. The early returns for Wiggins were shaky, and by late December he was already being picked apart as a potential bust. He rallied in the latter half of the season, averaging 20 points and shooting 45 percent after the All-Star break.

"If you're the No. 1 pick, I feel like people expect you to come to the league right away and put up numbers, have big games," Wiggins said. "I'm sure I lived up to some people's expectations, but there's a lot of people that thought I was going to be a lot better, or a lot worse."

At least Wiggins was accustomed to the scrutiny. He had been on the radar of NBA scouts since his sophomore year of high school, and on magazine covers long before he starred as a freshman at Kansas. And while stardom is not assured, he has demonstrated, rather quickly, that he belongs in the NBA.

The experience has been much tougher for Wiggins' teammate, Anthony Bennett, the No. 1 pick in 2013. Bennett, who was also chosen by the Cavaliers, is already engraved on the list of all-time draft busts. He averaged a modest 5.2 points this past season, which was at least an improvement from his rookie year, when he battled health and conditioning issues and could hardly make a shot.

The whispers of "bust" came quickly—"I think it was my first couple games," Bennett said.

Also worth noting: No one had ever pegged Bennett as a No. 1 pick. The Cavaliers shocked everyone, taking Bennett at the top of an exceptionally weak draft class.

"I was shocked," Bennett said. "Shocked, happy, just excited for everything."

Is it Bennett's fault that the Cavs made him the top pick? No. But it is his name—not former general manager Chris Grant—that turns up in the Google search for draft busts. That is the burden of being No. 1.

Next month, it will likely be Towns, or Okafor, or Russell, who will inherit this complex honor. He will hear his name called, hug his family and friends, walk across the stage, shake hands with commissioner Adam Silver and pull on the first baseball cap of the evening.

"Every kid's dream," Wiggins said.

"Surreal," Davis said.

"It's a lot that comes your way," Rose said, sounding a slight cautionary note, "but if you're ready for it, it's a blessing."

The moment only comes once. The label endures for a lifetime.
Click to expand...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...f-nba-draft-is-an-honor-and-often-a-curse-too
 
So You’re Saying There’s A Chance At A Chance?!

NBA lottery teams aren’t just hoping to land a top draft pick; they’re trying to beat the significant odds that their selection won’t pan out.

The Minnesota Timberwolves just finished a slog of a regular season— their first since trading Kevin Love. Beset by injuries at every turn and armed with a roster of replacement-level players and talent too young to legally drink, the team, somewhat predictably, finished with the worst record in the NBA. Their reward for all that losing was plenty of experience for hypothetical franchise cornerstones Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins (the Rookie of the Year), and a 25 percent chance at the top pick in this year’s draft.

This evening at the NBA Draft Lottery, Minnesota will be crossing their fingers and counting on those 25 percent odds securing them first crack at a another square brick of talent to add their young foundation. They will not be alone in their giddy optimism.

Representatives from 15 other teams will be there, each with their own woeful tales of injuries, bad luck and missed opportunities, each chasing the same prize — the number one overall pick. That draft slot is as valuable a team-building commodity as there is in the NBA, first in line to wade into a tantalizing pool of talent. It’s a chance to add the next Wiggins, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis or John Wall.

Or the next Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden or Andrea Bargnani.

Tonight, hope abounds and everyone likes their odds, not matter how small. But the reality is that those 16 team representatives will also be crossing their fingers and rubbing rabbit feet for something that is far from a sure thing. It’s really just a chance at a chance.

The names and stories of past draft busts are just as familiar as the wild success stories. What is not always so familiar is the vast middle ground in between success and failure. For every, star or washout there are ten more draft prospects whose names we just don’t remember. Most basketball fans can parrot the line, “there are no sure things in the draft, but it’s not entirely clear that the true level of draft uncertainty is as widely acknowledged.

Layne Vashro, of Nylon Calculus, has some of the most accurate statistical draft projections models publicly available. Below you can see a numeric representation of just how little transformational talent is guaranteed, even at the top of the draft.

View media item 1540224

The top three picks in the draft (which are what’s ultimately decided in the lottery tonight) can be reliably expected to produce a player who stays in the league and contributes. Essentially, all players peak, at the very least, as bench players.

But even with the top overall pick, the probability of acquiring a player who grows into a star is less than 30 percent. By the time you get to the third pick, that probability has dropped to roughly 20 percent. Even the next performance tier defined by Vashro — “stud” — has less than a 50 percent probability of being found in a top pick.

Obviously we’re factoring in all sorts of variables here — injuries, overestimates, organizational ability to develop talent. Still, all those factors wrapped together say that whoever ends up in the top spot at the lottery tonight still has essentially no better odds than a coin flip of getting an above-average player.

We can also see this uncertainty when we look at this year’s draft class in detail. Vashro’s draft models project the probabilities that each individual player reaches certain tiers of performance levels. By his calculations, just seven players in this draft class have a combined probability above 25 percent of reaching “stud” or “star” levels of performance.

1*6F9OSiwCd2glc0uCcKXomw.png


Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, Tyus Jones and D’Angelo Russell all look very strong, but, again, none have a probability of becoming a star that is significantly better than a coin flip.

This year’s NBA Draft is not an outlier, either.

Over the ten previous seasons, Vashro’s model gave just 15 players a better than 50 percent chance of becoming stars. And those names — Anthony Davis, Greg Oden, Tyrus Thomas, Jordan Adams, Kyrie Irving, Nerlens Noel, Kevin Love, James Harden, Marcus Smart, Joel Embiid, DeJuan Blair, Kevin Durant, DeMarcus Cousins, Michael Beasley and Blake Griffin — represent draft uncertainty about as well as any of the numbers can.

So even if your favorite team is not lucky enough to have its logo revealed in prime position tonight, take heart. When it comes to the probability of landing a star player, the difference between the third pick and the last pick in the lottery is only about 12 percentage points. So as those envelopes are unsealed, and hope is measured and meted out in different quantities, keep in mind what’s really on the line is just a slightly smaller slice of the unknown.
Click to expand...
 
I just hope the sixers get at least a top 3 pick. But I've been doing that draft simulator a ton of times and the Sixers always end up at 4 or 5, the Lakers are never out of the top 5, and the Heat are always 10
 
P if the Lakers pick 3rd, who would you want? Feel like you can go with either of the 2 guards or Winslow easily. WCS would be a bit of a reach that high, but you do need a shot blocking big as well.
 
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WCS at 3 is high risk high reward.

He definitely fills a need more than either of the PG's, Clarkson is good and there's no guarantee that Russell or Mudiay turn out to be better.


Meanwhile rim protection would still be a need.
 
I would lean towards Russell since he's arguably the second best prospect in the draft. I didn't watch Mudiay in China so I'm not that informed on him besides the general scouting profile on him. The Lakers need a small forward too (biggest need after center to me) so Winslow could be an option.
 
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I suppose that's an option too. Keep in mind they already have #27 and #34 in their backpockets too. But I don't expect the Lakers to bring three rookies to the roster.
 
Lakers could definitely use a wing defender/athlete like Winslow but they still going to have Randle and Jordan Hill protecting the paint.
 
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