The College Basketball Post

[jamesonnt]

damn that sucks. and that's stupid.

 

[vabigpoppa]

Originally Posted by PhilBalla09


%#$^ we got an ^#% whoppn

...


if jesse misses the radford game, it aint gonna be pretty

the heck happened to liberty, you guys are lost w/o jessesanders. but jesse sanders wouldnt have helped you guys in back to back blowouts. How come anthony smith doesnt play point?

Since saturday is senior night for Radford, im sure our 3 seniors will start, but I hope they dont play around, we probably have to win out to not get theplay-in game in the tourney.

 

[timcity2000]

I'm surprised Trent Johnson isn't on that Coach of the Year list posted on the last page... not even Top 12??

 

[messiahchild]

Siena vs. Notre Dame breakdown

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Posted by Joe Lunardi
Thank you for recognizing the quality of the Siena men's basketball team. They are an outstanding team, and I don't see how Niagara defeated them in your mock MAAC tournament. Also, the Saints should get the at-large bid over Notre Dame.
The only reason [the Fighting Irish] can still get a tourney bid is because they were ranked well in the preseason. If Siena started on level ground with Notre Dame, I don't think there would be any question of who would be in the tournament.

Siena is 21-6 and 15-1 in conference play, and that includes the fifth-toughest nonconference schedule in the nation. This was a schedule that included road games against Kansas (which it lost to by just seven and outscored by six in the second half), then-No. 3 Pittsburgh, and games in the Old Spice Classic against Tennessee and Oklahoma State. They also recently defeated Northern Iowa in a nationally televised game on BracketBusters Saturday.

So, if this mid-major can't make the big dance, who can?

Bradley Rost

Two points of clarification before we get to the heart of Bradley's question:

• The conference tournament results presented during our mock bracket exercise last weekend were random. Niagara defeating Siena had nothing to do with the relative quality of the teams; it was merely an effort by the NCAA staff to force Siena into the at-large pool for demonstration and discussion purposes.

• That demonstration led to some very heated discussion about Notre Dame (the last at-large team selected in our exercise) and Siena (the first team out of the NCAA field in our vote). As stated earlier, I was in the minority in voting for the Saints.

The real issue isn't what the ESPN mock committee did, of course, but what the actual NCAA men's basketball committee would do when presented with this classic question: a quality mid-major versus what I like to call a "middling" major. There are folks who claim that Notre Dame is better than Siena, that the Irish have superior talent and would dominate a league like the MAAC, that the Saints would be completely undone by the meat grinder of the Big East.

I would politely suggest that these are opinions -- well informed -- but still ultimately human judgments. It is more honest to assert that while the Irish might in fact dominate the MAAC, so has Siena. It is equally honest to state that while the Saints might indeed be overwhelmed in the Big East, so was Notre Dame for the better part of the season.

I prefer to deal in facts and, thankfully, so too does the real committee (at least the large majority of the time). So let us consider:

• At the time of our vote, Siena and Notre Dame had identical ASM (Adjusted Scoring Margin) figures of +8.28 ppg. This is not insignificant, as teams in that range are frequent 10-12 seeds in the NCAA tournament.

• The Irish have two superior wins than Siena has posted (Texas and Louisville). The Irish also have at least one loss (St. John's) to a team the Saints figure to have beaten. We have to consider both ends of this spectrum.

• While the past history of individual teams is not a factor in NCAA selection and seeding, an analysis of past tournaments can inform the selection process. In other words, how do these types of teams tend to perform once they make the field?

Going back 10 years, I have examined every double-digit seed from a BCS conference ("Middling Majors") and all other double-digit seeds who received/would have received at-large consideration ("Quality Mids"). The results, even to me, were a bit surprising:
[table][tr][td]Mid-Majors vs. Middling Majors[/td] [/tr][tr][td] [/td] [td]BCS[/td] [td]Sweet 16s[/td] [td]Non-BCS[/td] [td]Sweet 16s[/td] [/tr][tr][td]So how do mid-majors stack up with the BCS schools when both are double-digit seeds?
The table below shows the cumulative records of those teams seeded in double digits and
which ones reached the Sweet 16 or beyond.[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2008[/td] [td]3-6[/td] [td]Villanova[/td] [td]7-9[/td] [td]Davidson (Elite Eight)
Western Kentucky[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2007[/td] [td]0-5[/td] [td]none[/td] [td]2-6[/td] [td]none[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2006[/td] [td]2-3[/td] [td]none[/td] [td]8-8[/td] [td]George Mason (Final Four)
Bradley
Wichita State[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2005[/td] [td]2-3[/td] [td]NC State[/td] [td]4-10[/td] [td]Wisconsin-Milwaukee[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2004[/td] [td]0-2[/td] [td]none[/td] [td]4-9[/td] [td]Nevada[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2003[/td] [td]2-4[/td] [td]Auburn[/td] [td]4-8[/td] [td]Butler[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2002[/td] [td]3-3[/td] [td]Missouri (Elite Eight)[/td] [td]9-10[/td] [td]Kent State (Elite Eight)
Southern Illinois[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2001[/td] [td]2-3[/td] [td]Georgetown[/td] [td]10-11[/td] [td]Temple (Elite Eight)
Gonzaga[/td] [/tr][tr][td]2000[/td] [td]2-3[/td] [td]Seton Hall[/td] [td]3-8[/td] [td]Gonzaga[/td] [/tr][tr][td]1999[/td] [td]3-2[/td] [td]Oklahoma[/td] [td]9-11[/td] [td]Gonzaga (Elite Eight)
Miami (Ohio)
SW Missouri State[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Totals[/td] [td]19-34 (.35[/td] [td] [/td] [td]60-90 (.400)[/td] [td] [/td] [/tr][/table]
What do you know? Despite being unfavorably seeded by an almost three-to-one margin, the Quality Mids are winning NCAA tournament games at a far greater percentage than the Middling Majors. Let's repeat that: So-called "quality mids" are given double-digit seeds almost three times more often than comparable BCS schools, yet they win more games -- and advance further more often -- than their "middling major" counterparts.

Does this answer the question of whether or not Siena is better than Notre Dame this year? Of course not. It does suggest rather strongly, however, that teams which challenge themselves out of conference, or that go on the road against long odds, or that continually win games against good (even if not great) competition are more likely to compete and advance in the NCAA tournament.

As I've always said, this should be about performance (not potential). Just because a Notre Dame should be better than a Siena doesn't mean they are. And to call it insane to think otherwise is simply not supported by the evidence.

 

[worldbeefreeg]

Originally Posted by TimCity2000

I'm surprised Trent Johnson isn't on that Coach of the Year list posted on the last page... not even Top 12??

He's done a great job no doubt but once again, SEC basketball

. That's the reason.

 

[mben32]

Duke over Maryland big tonight?

Elliot Williams in the starting lineup?

i wouldn't mind it, i understand he's young and has many flaws in his game..but at this point, the way nolan and paulus been playing. i wouldnt mindseeing the young freshmen getting some time to develop and gain confidence..he played pretty well the other night and can't be much worse than smith andpaulus

and hopefully scheyer has another game similar to the one on sunday

Expecting another big game from henderson

 

[lifelessons]

its gonna be a close game....

 

[craftsy21]

Originally Posted by worldbeefreeg

Originally Posted by TimCity2000

I'm surprised Trent Johnson isn't on that Coach of the Year list posted on the last page... not even Top 12??

He's done a great job no doubt but once again, SEC basketball

. That's the reason.

Still... a performance like that in any conference is pretty amazing. It's been such a quick turnaround.

 

[worldbeefreeg]

Originally Posted by Craftsy21

Originally Posted by worldbeefreeg

Originally Posted by TimCity2000

I'm surprised Trent Johnson isn't on that Coach of the Year list posted on the last page... not even Top 12??

He's done a great job no doubt but once again, SEC basketball

. That's the reason.

Still... a performance like that in any conference is pretty amazing. It's been such a quick turnaround.

No doubt. I can't lie I thought dude was just reeping the success of the Lopez's but he can really coach. They have dominated the SEC straight up,and they weren't supposed to. I still ain't buying them in the tourney though, that non-conference schedule was the biggest joke.

 

[craftsy21]

Originally Posted by worldbeefreeg

Originally Posted by Craftsy21

Originally Posted by worldbeefreeg

Originally Posted by TimCity2000

I'm surprised Trent Johnson isn't on that Coach of the Year list posted on the last page... not even Top 12??

He's done a great job no doubt but once again, SEC basketball

. That's the reason.

Still... a performance like that in any conference is pretty amazing. It's been such a quick turnaround.

No doubt. I can't lie I thought dude was just reeping the success of the Lopez's but he can really coach. They have dominated the SEC straight up, and they weren't supposed to. I still ain't buying them in the tourney though, that non-conference schedule was the biggest joke.

Yeah I mean, their record is a bit deceiving.. but i think they're solid. Looking at their efficiency numbers, they are top 50 in bothoffense and defense, which is pretty darn good. They rebound REALLY well and take care of the ball... that's always a tough out. I think a team couldunderestimate them in the tourney, depending on what sort of seed they end up with.

 

[philballa09]

Originally Posted by VABigPoppa

Originally Posted by PhilBalla09


%#$^ we got an ^#% whoppn

...


if jesse misses the radford game, it aint gonna be pretty

the heck happened to liberty, you guys are lost w/o jesse sanders. but jesse sanders wouldnt have helped you guys in back to back blowouts. How come anthony smith doesnt play point?

Since saturday is senior night for Radford, im sure our 3 seniors will start, but I hope they dont play around, we probably have to win out to not get the play-in game in the tourney.

i don't know.....imo, Jesse would've helped alot in the VMI game, like you said our O is so lost when he aint playing

When this team gets down by a certain point we don't play D, which is sadbecause it turns into 40 point blowouts and also Ohman is make or break too

i think im going to save myself a trip

 

[mdterps4]

I really hope our boys are over that UNC win and ready to move on. Duke EMBARRASSED us back in January, we need to play with a chip on our shoulders.

We've still got work to do in order to make the NCAA tournament and a win tonight would feel great.

[color= rgb(255, 0, 0)]Go Terps![/color]

 

[scuse7]

I don't think Quette will get blown out, but them trying to guard Thabeet....

I think Duke wins easy

 

[ThaxbyChamblis]

Unfortunately w/ the win over UNC and the fact that they got raped in Cameron, I think the Terps play this game w/ a lot of confidence and make this a tough,tough game.

I can see this going either way.

UMD has no answer for Singler though.

I think Duke edges UMD.

Should be a close, close game and I wouldn't be surprised if UMD came out w/ the W.

 

[elevenairs]

looking forward to the Uconn-Marquette matchup

hopefully Buzz Williams doesnt change the gameplan thats worked all season...if they keep driving the basket like they've been doing without beingintimidated by Thabeet's presence, maybe they can get him in foul trouble early...but if he plays smart, Marquette could be in for a loooonnnnng night

Hayward and Burke have to play solid tonight or I dont see it happening..the Huskies size could end up being too much

 

[seymore cake]

Originally Posted by dreClark

Unfortunately w/ the win over UNC and the fact that they got raped in Cameron, I think the Terps play this game w/ a lot of confidence and make this a tough, tough game.

I can see this going either way.

UMD has no answer for Singler though.

I think Duke edges UMD.

Should be a close, close game and I wouldn't be surprised be very upset if UMD came out w/ the W.

 

[JND1]

Originally Posted by SCuse7

I think Duke wins easy

 

[jamesonnt]

I'll take UConn FTW.

AJ PRICE - LONG ISLAND!!

 

[wildkycat]

Cats at South Carolina fittin to start.

we could really, really use this win.

 

[jaygunna]

Wessss

 

[wildkycat]

Jodie heatin' up.

this officiating has been horrible.

 

[jdcurt2]

Porter should not see the court and Meeks with a big 3

 

[gunna get it]

Dominic is out for the game wit foot injury

I was wondering why acerman was gettin so much PT

how was that not a +$$+%+ foul on Thabeet

 

[craftsy21]

It was a foul, but it wasn't the travesty the announcers are making it out to be... all it ended up being was a little hip check in the end, when themarquette player was the one trying to draw the contact to begin with. Probably should've been called, but that sort of thing gets non-called all thetime... especially if the offensive player is going out of his way to make contact where there isn't any.

 

[wildkycat]

good night.