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Pitchers and catchers are 3 weeks away...
The Major League Baseball Offseason Post
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by wildkycat,
- Start date
3 weeks of watching the Knicks and St. John's.
Joy.
Cubs signed Nady to a 1 year deal.
http://[h3]
http://[h3]Sheets off market, teams move on[/h3]
1:48PM ET
[h5]Ben Sheets | Brewers [/h5]
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The Ben Sheets sweepstakes is over and the Oakland Athletics have won, signing the right-hander to a one-year, $10 million deal, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman. Danny Knobler was the first to report the deal.
The Mets, Mariners and Rangers must now look elsewhere for additional starting pitching. Jon Garland, John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez are mong the free agents left on the market and Aaron Harang may be available via trade, as might his teammate Bronson Arroyo despite it being quiet on that front this winter.
http://[h3]Yankees options after Damon[/h3]
12:30PM ET
[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]
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While http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3323Johnny Damon and Scott Boras are hoping they can get the http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=nyyNew York Yankees to improve their current offer, reported to be $2 million for one year, GM Brian Cashman has other options in left field.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4564Xavier Nady is still a free agent, as is http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3449Jermaine Dye, http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5860Jonny Gomes and http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5352Rocco Baldelli. Dye and Gomes both grade well below-average defensively, which may push them to the bottom of any list the Yankees may compile for the position, and Baldelli may not be able to handle regular work. Nady, like Damon, may be asking for more money than the Yankees wish to pay, but he plays good enough defense to warrant starting in a corner outfield spot.
While Damon hops the Yankees feel empty without him, the club does have another option, which is to find a centerfielder and move http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6125Curtis Granderson to left, which may not be be easy, but it may carry a bigger payoff.
Might Brian Giles be an option? The 39-year-old was being considered by the San Diego Padres earlier this month, but since then GM Jed Hoyer has added both Hairston brother and Aaron Cunningham, all of whom play the outfield.
http://[h3]Lopez to Cards? Mets? Dodgers?[/h3]
12:13PM ET
[h5]Felipe Lopez | Brewers [/h5]
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Felipe Lopez had a strong season in 2009 but has yet to turn that into a contract for 2010. The St. Louis Cardinals appeared to be a suitor early on, but GM John Mozeliak indicated earlier this month that after paying Matt Holliday, free agency was highly unlikely, suggesting that Skip Schumaker is their guy at second. John Gordon reiterated the fit between the two last week.
The Mets and Dodgers could use the upgrade, too, but GM Omar Minaya has not had any luck getting teams to bite on Luis Castillo and the $12 million guaranteed him, and Ned Colletti may not have any payroll flexibility to compete for Lopez's services, laving Jamey Carroll as the everyday second baseman in L.A.
The Twins and Tigers may also be in the market for a second baseman, as might the Mariners if they succeed in trading Jose Lopez for value. One darkhorse may be the Tampa Bay Rays, who could push Ben Zobrist to the outfield permanently.
http://[h3]Cubs targets include Park?[/h3]
11:15AM ET
[h5]Chan Ho Park | Phillies [/h5]
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We learned in recent days from Jayson Stark that the Chicago Cubs interest in right-hander Ben Sheets has been "back-burnered," as the club seeks relief help instead, and SI.com's Jon Heyman tweeted Monday night that Chan Ho Park was in their sights.
Heyman says the Tampa Bay Rays are also kicking the tires on Park, who was not offered arbitration by the Philadelphia Phillies despite thriving in a relief role in 2009.
Stark added Kiko Calero to the Cubs list of relief possibilities and wrote that the club is also looking into fourth outfielders, possibly including Reed Johnson, Jermaine Dye, Jonny Gomes and Xavier Nady.
http://[h3]Smoltz to Queens?[/h3]
10:53AM ET
[h5]John Smoltz | Cardinals [/h5]
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For years, John Smoltz was a thorn in the side of the New York Mets. Now the Mets may be trying to bring the long-time pitcher for the NL East rival Atlanta Braves to Queens.
Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News reports the Mets have been "particularly active" in discussions with Smoltz's agents and would use him as a starter.
Smoltz, Ben Sheets and Jon Garland are the best free-agent options remaining. While the Mets appear interested in Sheets, he is believed to be asking for more than New York is willing to play.
The 42-year-old Smoltz pitched for Boston and St. Louis last season after two decades with the Braves.
http://[h3]Gomes to Reds: Call me[/h3]
10:25AM ET
[h5]Jonny Gomes | Reds [/h5]
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Jonny Gomes remains a free agent after the Reds decided not to offer him a contract. If Cincinnati general manager Walt Jocketty were to change his mind, Gomes would have no hard feelings.
"I haven't heard from them since they told me in December that they were not tendering me," Gomes told Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News. "The Reds have some holes to fill and I'd sure like to fill one of them."
The Reds still need a left fielder and are considering Chris Dickerson and rookie Chris Heisey. Gomes hit 20 home runs for the Reds last year in only 281 at-bats, but can be a liability defensively.
http://[h3]Upton open to long-term deal[/h3]
10:02AM ET
[h5]B.J. Upton | Rays [/h5]
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Over the weekend, we talked about how there could be a particularly sticky situation in Tampa Bay, where the Rays are scheduled for a hearing with B.J. Upton even though their offers were just $300,000 apart.
Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times wrote Sunday that the Rays risk alienating Upton, whose reputation already has been tainted by some lack-of-hustle incidents, if the two sides go to a hearing.
Topkin caught up with Upton at a charity golf outing on Monday, and the outfielder said he'd love to sign a long-term deal to stay in Tampa. Rays executive VP Andrew Friedman added that the interest is mutual.
http://[h3]It's Freese's job to lose[/h3]
9:52AM ET
[h5]David Freese | Cardinals [/h5]
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The Cardinals' offseason was preoccupied with the re-signing free agent outfielder Matt Holliday, a pursuit that moved their third base situation out of the spotlight.
We're just a few weeks from spring training, and it looks more and more like David Freese will again get the first shot at winning the hot corner job, reports Rick Hummel of the Post-Dispatch.
Miguel Tejada was on the Cards' radar, but the veteran infielder is headed back to Baltimore. Hummel says the Cards would like to add a lefty-batting veteran to complement Freese and serve as an insurance policy. Free agent Adam Kennedy is still available, but he was let go by Tony La Russa prior to last season and is unlikely to return.
http://[h3]Maicer chooses security[/h3]
9:15AM ET
[h5]Maicer Izturis | Angels [/h5]
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Maicer Izturis may not have left that much money on the table Monday when he chose the security of a three-year, $10 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
Izturis was slated for free agency this winter, but Bill Shaikin of the LA Times writes that middle infielders have hardly broken the bank this offseason. Shaikin notes that Craig Counsell, Jamey Carroll and Adam Everett all signed less lucrative deals than Izturis, and Orlando Cabrera, Adam Kennedy and Ronnie Belliard are still looking for work.
Is there reason to think the market will explode by next winter? Izturis doesn't think so.
http://[h3]Cards pass on Edmonds[/h3]
8:57AM ET
[h5]Jim Edmonds | Cubs [/h5]
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We apologize for our unnatural level of excitement regarding the possible comeback of Jim Edmonds, but a) he dives a lot -- the guy is responsible for about 38% of all Web Gems for the period of '95-05 -- and he has one of the more loveable three-true-outcome uppercuts in the game.
Last week, Edmonds spoke at Tony La Russa's Animal Rescue Foundation on Sunday night and said he was "challenging" the Cards' manager to let him again suit up for his old team.
There were original concerns that Edmonds may have been joking, but apparently not. La Russa said he was willing to talk, but those discussions apparently went nowhere.
The Globe-Democrat in St. Louis reports today that there are two potential suitors for Edmonds, and the Cardinals are not one of them.
http://[h3]Minnesota next for Thome?[/h3]
8:49AM ET
[h5]Jim Thome | Dodgers [/h5]
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The next stop for Jim Thome could be Minnesota after the Chicago White Sox decided that the veteran slugger will not be in their plans for 2010.
The Twins have expressed interest in Thome, and could be the favorite now that the White Sox have dropped out of the running. The Star Tribune reports that the Twins are pleased with Jason Kubel as their DH, but think Thome would be an excellent addition to their bench.
The Tampa Tribune reported Monday the Rays might be interested in Thome if they could move http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4214Pat Burrell and open up a spot for a DH.
http://[h3]Agent says Wang has big league offer[/h3]
8:30AM ET
[h5]Chien-Ming Wang | Yankees [/h5]
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Plenty of teams are interested in Chien-Ming Wang, although most wanted to offer the right-hander only a minor league deal. Agent Alan Nero says that has changed.
Nero told Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com that he has a major-league offer with a "substantial guarantee." Nero says six teams have evaluated the medical reports on Wang, a two-time 19-game winner for the Yankees who had shoulder surgery in July.
Among the interested teams could be the Mets, who are searching for a starter.
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Wang worth a flier
http://[h3]Ripple effect of Ankiel deal[/h3]
8:09AM ET
[h5]Rick Ankiel | Royals [/h5]
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Royals general manager Dayton Moore wanted to upgrade his outfield defensively and did that with the signing of free agent Rick Ankiel to a one-year deal plus an option.
The Royals expect David DeJesus to move to right field and Scott Podsednik to play left field with Ankiel in the middle. Jose Guillen will become a full-time designated hitter.
The Kansas City Star reports that the ripple effect could be reduced playing time for Alberto Callaspo, who hit .300 last year. With Chris Getz added at second base and Guillen as the primary DH, that could mean less at-bats for Callaspo.
The Royals already have a crowded infield at this point and will have to find room for Mike Aviles who should return from Tommy John surgery by the end of April. Don't forget Aviles hit .325 in 2008.
http://[h3]Santana eyes Opening Day[/h3]
7:47AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
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A welcome sight for the New York Mets comes today when Johan Santana takes the mound for the first time since undergoing elbow surgery last September.
The Mets are hosting a voluntary mini-camp this week, hoping to erase the memories of a dismal, injury-plagued season of 2009. There are still plenty of question marks, but Santana insists he is not one of them and that he will be ready to start on Opening Day.
"At this point I feel way ahead of what I was last year at this point. Definitely," the two-time Cy Young Award winner told the New York Daily News.
If the Mets are to have any chance of returning to contention, a healthy Santana is a given.
Joy.
Cubs signed Nady to a 1 year deal.
http://[h3]
[/h3][h3]Damon back to Oakland?[/h3]
2:07PM ET
[h5]Johnny Damon | Yankees [/h5]
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With http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4571Ben Sheets signing in Oakland for $10 million guaranteed plus incentives, we have to wonder if there is a place for Damon with the A's, considering the fact that he wants more than a few million bucks for 2010.
The Yankees haven't closed the door on brining Damon back and ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported earlier this week that there is no timetable for a decision on Damon.
We speculated earlier today about other options for the Yankees, including http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3449Jermaine Dye and http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5352Rocco Baldelli, among others, though Xavier Nady's deal with the Chicago Cubs today removes another potential option from the Yankees grasp. But with suitors dropping like flies, Damon is running out of options, too.
We checked in with Olney on the possibility of Damon signing in Oakland now that Sheets is signed, sealed and delivered.
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
The A's may not have money left for Damon
http://[h3]Sheets off market, teams move on[/h3]
1:48PM ET
[h5]Ben Sheets | Brewers [/h5]
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The Ben Sheets sweepstakes is over and the Oakland Athletics have won, signing the right-hander to a one-year, $10 million deal, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman. Danny Knobler was the first to report the deal.
The Mets, Mariners and Rangers must now look elsewhere for additional starting pitching. Jon Garland, John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez are mong the free agents left on the market and Aaron Harang may be available via trade, as might his teammate Bronson Arroyo despite it being quiet on that front this winter.
http://[h3]Yankees options after Damon[/h3]
12:30PM ET
[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]
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While http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3323Johnny Damon and Scott Boras are hoping they can get the http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=nyyNew York Yankees to improve their current offer, reported to be $2 million for one year, GM Brian Cashman has other options in left field.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4564Xavier Nady is still a free agent, as is http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3449Jermaine Dye, http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5860Jonny Gomes and http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5352Rocco Baldelli. Dye and Gomes both grade well below-average defensively, which may push them to the bottom of any list the Yankees may compile for the position, and Baldelli may not be able to handle regular work. Nady, like Damon, may be asking for more money than the Yankees wish to pay, but he plays good enough defense to warrant starting in a corner outfield spot.
While Damon hops the Yankees feel empty without him, the club does have another option, which is to find a centerfielder and move http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6125Curtis Granderson to left, which may not be be easy, but it may carry a bigger payoff.
Might Brian Giles be an option? The 39-year-old was being considered by the San Diego Padres earlier this month, but since then GM Jed Hoyer has added both Hairston brother and Aaron Cunningham, all of whom play the outfield.
http://[h3]Lopez to Cards? Mets? Dodgers?[/h3]
12:13PM ET
[h5]Felipe Lopez | Brewers [/h5]
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Felipe Lopez had a strong season in 2009 but has yet to turn that into a contract for 2010. The St. Louis Cardinals appeared to be a suitor early on, but GM John Mozeliak indicated earlier this month that after paying Matt Holliday, free agency was highly unlikely, suggesting that Skip Schumaker is their guy at second. John Gordon reiterated the fit between the two last week.
The Mets and Dodgers could use the upgrade, too, but GM Omar Minaya has not had any luck getting teams to bite on Luis Castillo and the $12 million guaranteed him, and Ned Colletti may not have any payroll flexibility to compete for Lopez's services, laving Jamey Carroll as the everyday second baseman in L.A.
The Twins and Tigers may also be in the market for a second baseman, as might the Mariners if they succeed in trading Jose Lopez for value. One darkhorse may be the Tampa Bay Rays, who could push Ben Zobrist to the outfield permanently.
http://[h3]Cubs targets include Park?[/h3]
11:15AM ET
[h5]Chan Ho Park | Phillies [/h5]
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We learned in recent days from Jayson Stark that the Chicago Cubs interest in right-hander Ben Sheets has been "back-burnered," as the club seeks relief help instead, and SI.com's Jon Heyman tweeted Monday night that Chan Ho Park was in their sights.
Heyman says the Tampa Bay Rays are also kicking the tires on Park, who was not offered arbitration by the Philadelphia Phillies despite thriving in a relief role in 2009.
Stark added Kiko Calero to the Cubs list of relief possibilities and wrote that the club is also looking into fourth outfielders, possibly including Reed Johnson, Jermaine Dye, Jonny Gomes and Xavier Nady.
http://[h3]Smoltz to Queens?[/h3]
10:53AM ET
[h5]John Smoltz | Cardinals [/h5]
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For years, John Smoltz was a thorn in the side of the New York Mets. Now the Mets may be trying to bring the long-time pitcher for the NL East rival Atlanta Braves to Queens.
Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News reports the Mets have been "particularly active" in discussions with Smoltz's agents and would use him as a starter.
Smoltz, Ben Sheets and Jon Garland are the best free-agent options remaining. While the Mets appear interested in Sheets, he is believed to be asking for more than New York is willing to play.
The 42-year-old Smoltz pitched for Boston and St. Louis last season after two decades with the Braves.
http://[h3]Gomes to Reds: Call me[/h3]
10:25AM ET
[h5]Jonny Gomes | Reds [/h5]
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Jonny Gomes remains a free agent after the Reds decided not to offer him a contract. If Cincinnati general manager Walt Jocketty were to change his mind, Gomes would have no hard feelings.
"I haven't heard from them since they told me in December that they were not tendering me," Gomes told Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News. "The Reds have some holes to fill and I'd sure like to fill one of them."
The Reds still need a left fielder and are considering Chris Dickerson and rookie Chris Heisey. Gomes hit 20 home runs for the Reds last year in only 281 at-bats, but can be a liability defensively.
http://[h3]Upton open to long-term deal[/h3]
10:02AM ET
[h5]B.J. Upton | Rays [/h5]
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Over the weekend, we talked about how there could be a particularly sticky situation in Tampa Bay, where the Rays are scheduled for a hearing with B.J. Upton even though their offers were just $300,000 apart.
Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times wrote Sunday that the Rays risk alienating Upton, whose reputation already has been tainted by some lack-of-hustle incidents, if the two sides go to a hearing.
Topkin caught up with Upton at a charity golf outing on Monday, and the outfielder said he'd love to sign a long-term deal to stay in Tampa. Rays executive VP Andrew Friedman added that the interest is mutual.
http://[h3]It's Freese's job to lose[/h3]
9:52AM ET
[h5]David Freese | Cardinals [/h5]
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The Cardinals' offseason was preoccupied with the re-signing free agent outfielder Matt Holliday, a pursuit that moved their third base situation out of the spotlight.
We're just a few weeks from spring training, and it looks more and more like David Freese will again get the first shot at winning the hot corner job, reports Rick Hummel of the Post-Dispatch.
Miguel Tejada was on the Cards' radar, but the veteran infielder is headed back to Baltimore. Hummel says the Cards would like to add a lefty-batting veteran to complement Freese and serve as an insurance policy. Free agent Adam Kennedy is still available, but he was let go by Tony La Russa prior to last season and is unlikely to return.
http://[h3]Maicer chooses security[/h3]
9:15AM ET
[h5]Maicer Izturis | Angels [/h5]
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Maicer Izturis may not have left that much money on the table Monday when he chose the security of a three-year, $10 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
Izturis was slated for free agency this winter, but Bill Shaikin of the LA Times writes that middle infielders have hardly broken the bank this offseason. Shaikin notes that Craig Counsell, Jamey Carroll and Adam Everett all signed less lucrative deals than Izturis, and Orlando Cabrera, Adam Kennedy and Ronnie Belliard are still looking for work.
Is there reason to think the market will explode by next winter? Izturis doesn't think so.
http://[h3]Cards pass on Edmonds[/h3]
8:57AM ET
[h5]Jim Edmonds | Cubs [/h5]
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We apologize for our unnatural level of excitement regarding the possible comeback of Jim Edmonds, but a) he dives a lot -- the guy is responsible for about 38% of all Web Gems for the period of '95-05 -- and he has one of the more loveable three-true-outcome uppercuts in the game.
Last week, Edmonds spoke at Tony La Russa's Animal Rescue Foundation on Sunday night and said he was "challenging" the Cards' manager to let him again suit up for his old team.
There were original concerns that Edmonds may have been joking, but apparently not. La Russa said he was willing to talk, but those discussions apparently went nowhere.
The Globe-Democrat in St. Louis reports today that there are two potential suitors for Edmonds, and the Cardinals are not one of them.
http://[h3]Minnesota next for Thome?[/h3]
8:49AM ET
[h5]Jim Thome | Dodgers [/h5]
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The next stop for Jim Thome could be Minnesota after the Chicago White Sox decided that the veteran slugger will not be in their plans for 2010.
The Twins have expressed interest in Thome, and could be the favorite now that the White Sox have dropped out of the running. The Star Tribune reports that the Twins are pleased with Jason Kubel as their DH, but think Thome would be an excellent addition to their bench.
The Tampa Tribune reported Monday the Rays might be interested in Thome if they could move http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4214Pat Burrell and open up a spot for a DH.
http://[h3]Agent says Wang has big league offer[/h3]
8:30AM ET
[h5]Chien-Ming Wang | Yankees [/h5]
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Plenty of teams are interested in Chien-Ming Wang, although most wanted to offer the right-hander only a minor league deal. Agent Alan Nero says that has changed.
Nero told Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com that he has a major-league offer with a "substantial guarantee." Nero says six teams have evaluated the medical reports on Wang, a two-time 19-game winner for the Yankees who had shoulder surgery in July.
Among the interested teams could be the Mets, who are searching for a starter.
Wang worth a flier
http://[h3]Ripple effect of Ankiel deal[/h3]
8:09AM ET
[h5]Rick Ankiel | Royals [/h5]
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Royals general manager Dayton Moore wanted to upgrade his outfield defensively and did that with the signing of free agent Rick Ankiel to a one-year deal plus an option.
The Royals expect David DeJesus to move to right field and Scott Podsednik to play left field with Ankiel in the middle. Jose Guillen will become a full-time designated hitter.
The Kansas City Star reports that the ripple effect could be reduced playing time for Alberto Callaspo, who hit .300 last year. With Chris Getz added at second base and Guillen as the primary DH, that could mean less at-bats for Callaspo.
The Royals already have a crowded infield at this point and will have to find room for Mike Aviles who should return from Tommy John surgery by the end of April. Don't forget Aviles hit .325 in 2008.
http://[h3]Santana eyes Opening Day[/h3]
7:47AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
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A welcome sight for the New York Mets comes today when Johan Santana takes the mound for the first time since undergoing elbow surgery last September.
The Mets are hosting a voluntary mini-camp this week, hoping to erase the memories of a dismal, injury-plagued season of 2009. There are still plenty of question marks, but Santana insists he is not one of them and that he will be ready to start on Opening Day.
"At this point I feel way ahead of what I was last year at this point. Definitely," the two-time Cy Young Award winner told the New York Daily News.
If the Mets are to have any chance of returning to contention, a healthy Santana is a given.
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i wasn't a fan of the Gomes decision...bring him back, or see what we can get Jermaine Dye for. hell, Nady woulda been a good get.
the Mets can give us Francouer for Harang.
the Mets can give us Francouer for Harang.
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I wish Big Jim all the luck up in Minnesota at this point its about at bats and home runs
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Just heard on outside the lines that Randy Winn to the Yankees pending physical.
Johnny Damon is really in a bad position now.
Johnny Damon is really in a bad position now.
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Damon had no chance of being a Yankee, getting Winn pretty much ends his chances.
A's are nuts for giving Sheets 10M for one year. Dude sneezes and is on the DL, but at least its one year.
Meanwhile in a land far far away, the Mets continue to sit on their hands.
A's are nuts for giving Sheets 10M for one year. Dude sneezes and is on the DL, but at least its one year.
Meanwhile in a land far far away, the Mets continue to sit on their hands.
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anyone see anymore Felipe Lopez rumors? i'd be good if we brought him back at SS.
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our ( yankees ) outfield seems weak as hell to me. gardner, granderson, swish and winn ain't really got me sold.
i know it's pretty much the same as last year but how long can we get away with it ?
just being old and grumpy , carry on ...........
i know it's pretty much the same as last year but how long can we get away with it ?
just being old and grumpy , carry on ...........
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C'mon, onewearz, Randy Winn for the WINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
Spoiler [+]
Gardner better be a damn good bunter by Opening Day...
For your reading pleasure, enjoy:
Spoiler [+]
Welcome to the third annual ESPN.com ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. The No. 1 prospect for 2008, Evan Longoria, ended up winning the American League Rookie of the Year Award, and last year's No. 1 prospect, Matt Wieters, has already been inducted into Cooperstown, according to MattWietersFacts.com. The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1. Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible. When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you. I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 last offseason. An "ineligible" player (IE) was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an "unranked" player (UR) was eligible but didn't make the cut.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Jason Heyward[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 9, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: AAA (Gwinnett)
2009 ranking: 3[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Heyward's ascent to the top of these rankings was swift and unimpeded, and his path to the majors appears to be much the same, as he'll have a good chance to win the every-day right-field job this spring. Heyward will be a middle-of-the-order bat with power and patience while playing above-average defense in right with a plus arm. He has an advanced approach at the plate, something that was already in place when he was a 17-year-old high school senior, and strong, quick wrists that let him commit later to pitches while still driving the ball to all fields. He gets good leverage in his swing and has plenty of loft to eventually produce 30-plus homers a year, and so far hasn't shown any tendency to expand the zone because he's trying too hard to hit for power. In the field, he has outgrown center but moves extremely well in right with good reads off the bat. And you can see from all of the above that he has a high baseball IQ, with good feel and/or instincts in every area of the game, especially for someone his age. He murdered Double-A pitching at age 19 in a 200-PA sample, and his career stat line reads .318/.391/.508, nearly all of which was compiled before he turned 20 in August. His swing isn't perfect -- he does bar his front arm very briefly -- but he's so strong and has such bat speed that the minor flaw has been irrelevant at every stop of his pro career. Everything else here points to stardom. To see video of Heyward, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Stephen Strasburg[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: July 20, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '09 Level: AFL (Phoenix)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 FALL STATS[/h4]
Strasburg is the best starting pitcher in the Washington organization right now, and if he's not their No. 1 starter on Opening Day 2010 (for developmental or financial reasons), he almost certainly will be that guy by midyear. Strasburg will pitch at 94-98 mph as a starter -- maybe a tick less once he's working every fifth day and making 30-34 starts a year -- and has touched 100 repeatedly in the past, usually on a full week of rest. He has good life on the fastball to his glove side, and his curveball is as hard as a typical slider, with sharp late tilt that he uses to bury the pitch down and in to left-handed batters. He has a hard changeup with a screwball-#!$ fading action, but he rarely had to use it as an amateur because -- let's face it -- not many college hitters were going to square up a 98 mph fastball with life. What sets Strasburg apart from most pitchers who can throw 100 mph, even those who do it in relief, is how easily he does it, with tremendous arm speed and a delivery that he repeats well, featuring a long stride to the plate that has helped him pick up velocity since high school. He's a solid athlete with good body control and has very little to learn from dominating minor league hitters, so any internship he has in Washington's farm system should be brief. The pitching-starved Nationals certainly could use him. To see video of Strasburg, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]Carlos Santana[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: April 8, 1986)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: AA (Akron)
2009 ranking: 13[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Santana could be the Victor Martinez who can actually catch -- a switch-hitter with legitimate plate discipline and power with good receiving skills and an above-average arm. Cleveland swiped Santana from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake deal because they were willing to send L.A. the $2 million required to pay Blake's salary the rest of the way; in other words, they paid roughly what the ninth or 10th pick in a typical Rule 4 draft gets and ended up with the third-best prospect in baseball, a return on investment that Indians GM Mark Shapiro probably would take eight days a week. At the plate, Santana does start his hands a little deep, but he uses that to create great leverage in his swing as he explodes from his loaded position to the ball, with both hard contact and good loft when he squares a pitch up -- something he does quite often with an approach one Cleveland executive called "selective-aggressive," meaning Santana works the count but is more than happy to jump on a pitch he can hit early in an at-bat. He's a good athlete and runs well for a backstop. Santana has good hands behind the plate and arm strength, and he has shown progress in the one deficiency in his catching, his ability to handle a staff and work with pitchers. Lou Marson might be the starting catcher this April in Cleveland, but the job should be Santana's by September. To see video of Santana, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]http://Buster Posey[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: March 27, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 8[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Posey reached the majors less than 14 months after signing his first pro contract on the strength of his bat and his advanced feel for catching, amazing for someone who only became a full-time catcher in 2007. Posey has a short, compact stroke with excellent bat control and sprays the field with line drives. He doesn't have much raw power on account of his size and the presence of just a little loft in his swing, but he makes up for it with good plate discipline, and he should post good on-base percentages in the majors. As a catcher, he has soft hands and good athleticism behind the dish with a plus arm, unsurprising for someone who was a part-time reliever in college. There's some concern about Posey's trouble catching better fastballs -- and Giants pitchers do bring the heat -- when he reached the majors, but it's possible that was merely exhaustion from Posey's first full pro season and rust from the fact that San Francisco brought him up only to have Bruce Bochy let him rot on the bench for three weeks. He could catch every day for the Giants right now if they weren't too busy throwing money at the likes of Bengie Molina. To see video of Posey, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]Mike Stanton[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 8, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Florida Marlins
Top '09 Level: AA (Jacksonville)
2009 ranking: 31[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Stanton has enormous raw power -- 80 on the 20-80 scale, which, as you might infer from the scale, is good -- but isn't the prototypical minor league slugger, with athleticism and arm strength and the ability to play right field. Stanton's profile is a mix of big positives and red flags. He has good bat speed and plate coverage, getting his arms extended on anything past middle-in. He keeps his back side up, even straightening a little on his follow-through, and uses his wrist and hand strength to drive balls most hitters would have to lunge to reach. And the ball comes off his bat extremely well -- and quickly, especially on anything over the middle of the plate that he can drive. Stanton is an average to above-average runner with long strides and covers plenty of ground in right field with a plus arm, although he needs to improve his throwing accuracy. On the down side, those long arms combined with trouble recognizing breaking balls lead to a long swing and lower contact rates, and his big raw power pushed him to Double-A before his 20th birthday, where he faced better breaking balls and struggled to hit for average. The best-case scenario has Stanton as a plus right fielder who hits 40 bombs a year and draws enough walks to keep his OBP healthy. There is, however, always a risk that even a player this young and strong can't maintain a contact rate high enough to reach that star potential. To see video of Stanton, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Oct. 30, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: AAA (Durham)
2009 ranking: 25[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Jennings, the No. 11 prospect here two years ago, finally had a healthy season, racking up more plate appearances in 2009 than he had in 2007 and 2008 combined. He's an impact player on both sides of the ball who could start in center field for many teams right now. Jennings has outstanding tools as a plus runner who hits, throws well and plays a plus center field, with power potential as his 6-foot-2 frame fills out. He loads his hands farther back than he did in the past, almost barring his lead arm, giving him more chance to hit for power but not in a way that has cost him any of his ability to make contact (he has struck out in just 12 percent of his PAs in full-season ball over three seasons). What sets him apart from other tooled-up players is his feel for the game, which shows up everywhere he plays -- at the plate, where he has advanced pitch recognition and patience; on the bases; and in the field, where he reads balls well off the bat. The back and shoulder problems that plagued him before 2009 appear to be behind him, and he's in line to fill an outfield spot in Tampa this year when there's an injury or if the Rays' three-headed monster in right field doesn't pan out.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]Martin Perez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: April 4, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '09 Level: AA (Frisco)
2009 ranking: 37[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Perez is already the best left-handed prospect in baseball even though he probably would still be finishing high school if he had been born in the United States. At this time last year, he was a projectable lefty with good command of an average fastball and a plus curveball with good depth, but his velocity ticked upward this past season to where he's now sitting 91-94 mph and flashes better at times. Perez's changeup also made huge strides this season, giving him two plus secondary pitches, something few prospects can match -- and Perez is already there before reaching his 19th birthday. His delivery works well, with a big stride toward the plate, early pronation, good arm acceleration, and very good deception between the way he keeps his arm behind his body and that acceleration. He earns comparisons to Johan Santana because he's left-handed, has a good changeup and is Venezuelan. The Johan comparison works on a more important level -- Perez projects to be one of the best left-handed starters in the majors when he arrives, perhaps as soon as this September.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]Dustin Ackley[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 26, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Center field[/td][td]Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '09 Level: AFL (Peoria)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 FALL STATS[/h4]
Ackley, the second overall pick in 2009 and top position player taken, is an advanced hitter who should be a plus center fielder once his arm recovers fully from 2008 Tommy John surgery. Ackley primarily played first base for North Carolina last spring but had one of the best swings in the country -- short to the ball with some leverage and good extension, although he can lunge a little and meet the ball too far out front. He's a plus-plus runner who should be able to handle center, but the arm still wasn't 100 percent in the Arizona Fall League, and there's a non-zero chance that he'll never regain the arm strength to return to his old position. The Mariners have messed around with Ackley at second base, which would potentially make him more valuable but also introduces the greater injury risk faced by second basemen, as well as the overall developmental risk that the time he devotes to improving his glove could detract in some way from his development with the bat. Wherever he plays, he's going to hit for average and get on base with above-average power when he finishes filling out.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Justin Smoak[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 5, 1986)
Bats: Both Throws: Left
Position: First base[/td][td]Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '09 Level: AAA (Okla. City)
2009 ranking: 15[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Smoak's march to the majors last season hit a rough patch when he strained his left oblique, causing him trouble when he reached Triple-A and (giving him difficulty against left-handed pitching) for the rest of the year. His upside, however, remains untarnished, as he remains an impact bat from both sides of the plate with a plus glove at first base. Smoak is a very disciplined hitter with similar swings from the left and right sides, centering the ball extremely well and showing power to pull and to the opposite field. His path to the ball is short, and he generates a lot of bat speed from the set position. His only negative as a player is that he's a 20 runner, limiting him to first base, although he's agile and instinctive enough there that his glove should be an asset from the time he reaches the majors. Smoak is somewhat blocked right now by Chris Davis, who recovered from a horrendous first half in 2009 to restore some of his value, but Smoak is the superior player and Davis shouldn't be a long-term obstacle.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Jesus Montero[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: New York Yankees
Top '09 Level: AA (Trenton)
2009 ranking: 83[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Montero is really a "CINO" (catcher in name only), as few people outside the Yankees organization believe the giant player -- listed at 6-4, 225 pounds, although he's bigger than that now -- can stay behind the plate, even with the improvement in his throwing in 2009. Montero's ticket to the big leagues is his bat, and his hitting style is similar to that of another big guy who spent a lot of his career at DH: Frank Thomas. Montero transfers his weight early and hits off his front foot, but he generates tremendous bat speed and is so strong that he hits and hits for power regardless of the fact that he's on that lead foot. Behind the plate, he has arm strength and has improved his accuracy, but he's so big that he doesn't move quickly enough to catch in the big leagues, and his receiving has never been a strength. His bat is so far ahead of his glove anyway that it might end up making sense for the Yankees to employ him as a major league DH soon rather than wait for him to develop as a catcher, knowing that there's a good chance the latter won't happen.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]11[/td][td]http://Brian Matusz[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 11, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 28[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MLB STATS[/h4]
Matusz barely qualifies for this list, falling just 5.1 innings short of the 50-inning cutoff (teammate Chris Tillman is over the line and thus no longer a rookie in 2010), but the added experience might give him a leg up on the AL Rookie of the Year race in 2010. Matusz is a true four-pitch pitcher, but unlike most pitchers of that breed, all four of his pitches project as above-average or better. Matusz sits in the low 90s and will touch 94 with his fastball, although its lack of movement limits its potential as an out pitch and I expect Matusz to end up using his fastball less often than a standard pitcher with that velocity. His best secondary pitch is an 11-5 curveball with tight rotation and good depth, and he has excellent arm speed on his lively changeup. His command has improved steadily since his sophomore year in college, and -- as predicted here last year -- he raced through the minors on the strength of his off-speed pitches. He's not the prototypical No. 1 starter with a big fastball and an easy delivery, but his ability to miss left- and right-handed bats in different ways gives him a chance to lead a staff, regardless.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]12[/td][td]Starlin Castro[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: March 24, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '09 Level: AA (Tennessee)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Castro is one of the most exciting position player prospects in the minors as a quick-twitch player with an electric bat and a hose for an arm at shortstop. As a hitter, Castro has lightning in his wrists and the ball absolutely flies off his bat. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and adjusts well when pitchers try to come in on him, keeping his hands inside the ball and squaring up pitches many hitters would foul off. His swing can get long when pitchers work him away, but he still makes a lot more contact than most hitters do, courtesy of his bat speed and hand-eye. He recognizes breaking balls well for his age and projects to hit for power even to the opposite field. As a shortstop, he's quick on his feet with good range in both ways, especially to the hole, but it is his arm that really stands out, grading at 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale. The Cubs have pushed him up the ladder aggressively because he can make contact and needed reps against better pitching, but it has obscured his power potential because he's been so young for his leagues. He's going to be an impact bat in the middle of the diamond and could arrive as early as late 2010.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]13[/td][td]http://Neftali Feliz[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: May 2, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 4[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MLB STATS[/h4]
The only real question remaining on Feliz's potential as a big leaguer is whether he can start. In his favor, he has easy plus velocity, sitting 92-97 mph as a starter and 94-98 in relief, without much effort in his delivery and enough deception that hitters, especially right-handed hitters, don't see his fastball well at all. (Right-handed hitters were 4-for-47 against him in the majors in 2009, with no extra-base hits.) His best off-speed pitch is a changeup that he turns over well and that has good fade to it, so despite a low arm slot, he hasn't shown a major platoon split. Working against him as a starter is the lack of a clear average breaking ball; he has toyed with a slider and a curveball, throwing more curves in 2009 although his arm really sits in a slot better suited to sliders. He also missed some time with a sore shoulder in the first half of 2009, after which the Rangers put him in the 'pen and eventually called him up for that role. I'd give him a chance to start while recognizing all along that his future could very well be in the 'pen, where I would expect him to be dominant.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]14[/td][td]Domonic Brown[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 3, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Right field[/td][td]Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '09 Level: AA (Reading)
2009 ranking: 84 [/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
It's common in scouting circles to refer to an extremely athletic player as "a freak," but in Brown's case, his freakishness isn't limited to his incredible athleticism but includes how well he has played in pro ball despite still being fairly crude as a baseball player. He's long and wiry, listed as an inch taller than Heyward but 15 pounds lighter, built like a young, lean Dave Winfield. As raw as Brown is, he does two things like a longtime veteran: He has a good swing path that should produce significant power as he fills out, and if he can keep his weight back a little better -- he leaks slightly to his front side now -- he has 30-plus homer potential. His biggest deficiency is in the outfield, where his reads are poor and he doesn't set his feet to throw, but he has the speed and arm strength to become plus at the position and already runs down many balls he misreads. So on the one hand, Brown's game still needs a lot of refinement. On the other, if he does continue to develop, the sky is the limit; he could become a player who contributes in all areas offensively while providing plus defense in right and even adding something on the bases.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]15[/td][td]Wade Davis[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 24 (DOB: Sept. 7, 1985)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 33[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MLB STATS[/h4]
Davis is a big, strong right-hander with two plus pitches and a chance to have four offerings all average or better in a build that should support 200-plus innings a year. Davis sits at 93-95 with his four-seamer, mixing in a two-seamer from 90-92 with hard tail -- and he usually will throw the fastball inside to hitters on both sides of the plate to keep them honest. His curveball, 79-82 mph, is a hard two-planer with depth, and he's confident enough in it to use it in nontraditional counts; he also throws a hard slider in the mid-80s that has hard tilt but finishes out of the zone and can be a little sloppy. He does throw a fringy changeup that plays up because he picks his spots with it. Davis' main area for improvement is in fastball command, as he has good feel for pitching and commands the curve better than he does the heater. In a perfect world, he's a borderline No. 1 starter because of the velocity and potential for multiple out pitches, with a strong likelihood that he'll settle in just below that and soak up substantial innings with above-average performance.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]16[/td][td]Aroldis Chapman[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 28, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: Cuba/WBC
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] '08-09 CUBAN STATS[/h4]
Chapman's surprise decision to sign with Cincinnati gives the Reds an impressive stable of young arms who could form a contender's rotation by 2012 or 2013, with Chapman possibly at the head. He projects comfortably as an ace with a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and has legitimately hit 101 with good life, and he will flash a plus slider with good tilt. He has a changeup but seldom had to use it because he could get hitters out with velocity and fastball movement. He's also a good athlete whose velocity comes easily from a loose arm, and, with age and physical maturity, should be able to handle workloads of 180-200 innings. As well as Chapman projects in pro ball, that projection is based entirely on a small number of scouting looks that MLB evaluators have had, as he has pitched a handful of times in international competitions and threw once for scouts in Houston not long before signing with the Reds. It's not clear how much he'll be able to throw in 2010 or what kind of command he'll have when facing high-quality lineups in the United States. He's very likely to become a No. 1 starter, but there's enough risk here -- including the possibility he'll end up in relief -- to keep him out of the top 10.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]17[/td][td]Jeremy Hellickson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: April 8, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: AAA (Durham)
2009 ranking: 47 [/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Hellickson's a different animal from his future Tampa rotation-mate Wade Davis, but they're quite close in overall quality. Hellickson has less pure power than Davis, but a better changeup and his own plus curveball to give him multiple weapons to get big league hitters out. Hellickson's fastball is solid-average at 90-94, and he'll cut it to set it off from his four-seamer (which tends to be a little true). His changeup is a real plus pitch for him as he has improved his feel for it dramatically in the past two years, and he has great feel for his breaking ball -- with the ability to elevate it or bounce it or throw it for strikes as needed. Hellickson's control has always been excellent and he has plus fastball command, but the combination of average velocity and lack of movement do limit his ceiling somewhat to that of a No. 2 starter -- not that that is anything to be ashamed of, and it's probably more than the Rays could have hoped for when they signed him away from LSU for $500,000.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]18[/td][td]Casey Kelly[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 4, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: A (Salem)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Note the absence of "SS" from his position -- although Kelly was a good defensive shortstop, he was raw enough at the plate that it didn't make sense for him to continue to hit when he's so polished on the mound and could knock on the big league door in 2010 or 2011 as a pitcher. Kelly's defining attribute as a pitcher is his command, which was unusually good for a high school pitcher (in Sarasota, Fla.) and hasn't regressed at all since he got into pro ball. He has a chance for three average or better pitches, with a solid-average fastball already, a curveball that frequently flashes plus with good depth and tight rotation, and an above-average changeup with good arm speed and some fade. As you might expect from a former middle infielder, Kelly is a great athlete who fields his position well and repeats his delivery, contributing to that above-average command. He probably will add a little velocity as he goes, but his ability to locate his fastball and chance for two above-average to plus secondary pitches make him a top-flight pitching prospect even without the big fastball.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]19[/td][td]Aaron Hicks [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Center field[/td][td]Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '09 Level: A (Beloit)
2009 ranking: 56[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Hicks remains one of the premium tools prospects in the game, with a ways to go to convert those tools into baseball skills -- but he has shown glimmers of polish that give hope of a major step forward in the next year or two. A two-way star in high school, Hicks has an 80 arm if he ends up in right field but has the speed to handle center with work on his reads. At the plate, he's a true switch-hitter with great wrist acceleration; he loads his hands deep but gets great leverage in his swing, and he should be a plus-power guy when he fills out and gets more reps against higher-quality pitching. For the second year in a row, Hicks showed a strong walk rate, and he did so this time while playing in a full-season league at 19. Hicks' ceiling is one of the highest of any player in the low minors, but he needs to play a full season outside of extended spring training to show us just how far along he is.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]20[/td][td]Brett Wallace[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Aug. 26, 1986)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 3B/1B[/td][td]Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '09 Level: AAA (Sacramento)
2009 ranking: 19 [/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Wallace has been traded twice in the 19 months since he was drafted, testament in part to how much teams like his bat but also to questions about his defensive limitations. A full year in pro ball has made it clear that he's unlikely to improve enough at third base to play it in the majors -- or at least for any team to be willing to accept the trade-off of below-average defense for more offense at the position -- and he's now with a team that views him as its long-term first baseman. Wallace has one of the best swings of any minor league hitter, with good hip rotation and loft to go with an excellent eye (one that has led him to hit left-handed pitchers at a .357/.441/.476 clip in his pro career. (For some idea of how good that is, left-handed hitters in the majors in 2009 hit .247/.317/.386 against left-handed pitchers, the worst OPS of any of the four L/R matchup possibilities.) Wallace has an unusual shape, with wide thighs that limit his lateral agility and have the Blue Jays planning to use him only at first base, although he's a fringe-average to average runner and shouldn't have any trouble handling that position. Wallace is going to hit for average and get on base at a high clip while providing average to above-average power, a combination that will have value at any position, and he's ready to step into a major league role right away.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]21[/td][td]Logan Morrison [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 25, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 1B/LF[/td][td]Organization: Florida Marlins
Top '09 Level: AA (Jacksonville)
2009 ranking: 23[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Morrison broke his wrist early in the year, and it sapped his power for the rest of the season -- full power often doesn't return for an entire year after a broken wrist or hamate bone -- but he compensated with a massive uptick in his patience, posting a .411 OBP that was fifth-best in his league among players with at least 300 PAs. Morrison is extremely strong with plus raw power when his wrist is healthy; he has great hip rotation and can drive a ball even if he doesn't square it up perfectly. He did a better job this year of keeping his weight back. He's a capable defensive first baseman but can't play anywhere else. If he has recovered fully from the fracture, don't be surprised if he ends up in the big leagues this year, or shows up in the top 10 on this list next offseason.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]22[/td][td]Tyler Matzek[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 19, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '09 Level: Fall instructional
2009 ranking: IE [/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
Matzek was the best high school prospect in the 2009 draft, a left-handed pitcher with a four-pitch mix, a good delivery and unusual polish for a teenage hurler. Matzek sat 90-93 much of the spring in 2009 but hit 97-98 in multiple outings close to the draft to firmly establish himself as the premium prep arm. He throws a slider, curve and changeup -- with the slider his best off-speed pitch and the curve the least developed. His slider has a short, hard break down and away from left-handed hitters; the curve has good depth and a little angle, but it's less consistent and he has more feel for the slider. He has good arm speed on an average changeup and gets some fade on the pitch. He has a good workhorse's frame with some room to fill out, and his arm works well in a "drive-and-drop" delivery where he gets on top of the ball to get some downhill plane. What sets Matzek apart from most other pitching prospects is his demeanor -- he's aggressive and polished, yet understands the need to pace himself for 100-plus pitches, dialing it up and down as the situation demands. Colorado got a steal when he fell out of the top 10 picks, and he has a chance to move up relatively quickly despite his youth.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]23[/td][td]Jenrry Mejia[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 11, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: New York Mets
Top '09 Level: AA (Binghamton)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Mejia entered 2009 with no experience above short-season leagues, but finished it in Double-A despite missing time in the middle of the year with a strained finger on his pitching hand. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff, but is just 20 with the command you'd expect to see in a live-armed teenager with barely 200 innings in pro ball. His fastball sits at 93-96 and will tick higher, and the ball sometimes shows natural cutting action toward left-handed hitters. His changeup is his best off-speed pitch and, at 85-87 mph with good tail, looks like a soft two-seamer. His curveball is very inconsistent, but at its best, it's plus with good two-plane break and depth in the upper 70s. He's thick but not tall, and his slot is just below 3/4 -- so he has to work on staying on top of the ball, and the finger injury reduced his already below-average command. That said, he's 20 and has shown he can get advanced hitters in Double-A out. If the Mets slow him down a little and let him spend all of 2010 (and maybe some of 2011) in the minors to improve his command and the consistency of his changeup and curve, they have a chance for a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]24[/td][td]Michael Taylor[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 24 (DOB: Dec. 19, 1985 )
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '09 Level: AAA (Lehigh Valley)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Taylor stands out in a crowd -- at 6-6, 250 pounds, he's one of the biggest position players on this list. It's a strong 250 (as opposed to a fat 250), and now that he has gotten away from Stanford's hitting coaches, his athleticism is matched by his offensive performance. One consistent criticism from scouts who've seen Taylor is that although his size points to future power, his swing plane is somewhat flat; he's likely to hit for a high average but not to reach the 30-homer power someone as big as he is would be expected to show. It's a legitimate point, but at the same time, a good corner outfielder who hits .300-plus with lots of walks and doubles and 15-20 homers is an above-average player and not far below star caliber. Taylor was traded straight up for Brett Wallace in one of the aftershocks of the Roy Halladay trade, and I have Wallace slightly ahead of Taylor here, but Taylor's advantage over Wallace -- and they're going to be compared to each other for years, even if each player reaches his potential in the majors -- is that he can affect the game on both sides of the ball as a good athlete who should be worth five or more runs a year in the field.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]25[/td][td]Zach Britton[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 22, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '09 Level: A (Frederick)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Britton is a true sinker/slider pitcher with enough velocity to work as a starter and a potential out pitch in the slider to miss bats when he's not getting ground balls. His sinker has solid-average velocity with legitimate plus sink, and he'll flash a four-seamer up to 94. His slider -- although not as consistent -- flashes plus, and he's willing and able to backfoot it to right-handed hitters, then throwing the sinker away to get a weak grounder or just a swing and miss. His changeup improved over the course of the season to the point that it's an average pitch or better, eliminating a major concern for sinker/slider guys -- a typical weakness against opposite-side hitters. Britton's arm works well with high hand separation and a short arm path, and he's a good athlete with some room to fill out up top. His control remains below-average and his command of all pitches and feel for the slider need to improve, as well, but he would slot in very nicely as a No. 2 starter behind Brian Matusz, or as an outstanding No. 3 behind Matusz and Chris Tillman.
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[table][tr][td]26[/td][td]Lonnie Chisenhall [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 4, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: AA (Akron)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Chisenhall has one of the best swings in the minors, a classic left-hander's swing with good hip rotation and raw power to right and right-center, which was already on display in the 22 home runs he hit between high-A and Double-A in 2009. He played the entire year at the age of 20 and showed the ability to make contact and control the bat in and around the zone, while his walk rate, through not great, was adequate and also reflected the ease with which he makes contact. A miscast shortstop in college, Chisenhall has settled in at third base and made his body leaner, giving him a good chance to stay at the position and even end up a little above-average there. Chisenhall's history, for those who don't know it, includes expulsion from South Carolina for his involvement in a burglary, for which he pleaded guilty and received probation, but he's kept his nose clean since signing with Cleveland and looks like he'll move up the ladder quickly.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]27[/td][td]Jaff Decker [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '09 Level: A (Fort Wayne)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Decker was a two-way star in high school -- I caught him on a day he threw a no-hitter and, unsurprisingly, drew four walks -- but doesn't seem to get a lot of credit for having any athleticism because he has what is now known as the "Brian Giles Body," formerly known as the "Matt Stairs Body." Decker's approach at the plate rivals that of most big leaguers; he's not just patient, but he's selective, and rarely swings at balls out of the zone. (Just for kicks: Decker has drawn 136 unintentional walks in a year and a half in pro ball; Josh Vitters, with an additional year in the minors, has drawn 26.) Decker's swing is short but hard, and he has big pull power with some power to the opposite field as well. He's got a plus arm, so he can handle right or left field. A .400 OBP with some pop from an outfield corner is a well-above-average player, and not far off from stardom if Decker can add more power than currently projected.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]28[/td][td]Madison Bumgarner[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 1, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 6 [/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Bumgarner took a big tumble this year when his velocity gradually declined the deeper he went into the season. It's possible the velocity drop was just a function of a very young pitcher (he didn't turn 20 until Aug. 1) who wore down over the course of a long year, but it's also possible that this is where he's going to pitch long-term if he works as a starter. Bumgarner throws from a low arm slot -- well below 3/4 -- and has had some trouble against right-handed hitters since they see the ball very well out of his hand, although the slot gives him good tailing life on his fastball. He throws a slider and changeup and both will flash average or better, but neither was very consistent in 2009, with the slider sometimes showing good tilt but other times going soft on him, allowing hitters to pick up the break earlier. He was 88-93 mph early in the season but just 87-90 by midsummer, and the velocity on his slider and changeup dipped as well. He's a big kid who has started to fill out and could add more to his 6-foot-4 frame, but the loss of velocity this year and his related difficulty in missing bats raise serious questions about how high his ceiling really is.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]29[/td][td]Tim Beckham[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 27, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: A (Bowling Green)
2009 ranking: 11[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Beckham's first full year was a disappointment, although he played the entire season at 19 in the Sally League and showed that when he made contact, it was of the hard variety. Beckham, the first overall pick in 2008, is a very good athlete with an outstanding work ethic, but his body got away from him a little in 2009, especially in his lower half, which started to get thicker and slower, reducing his chances to stay at shortstop. To his credit he lost some of that weight in the first half of the offseason. At this point, it's more likely that he'll have to move off the position -- he has the hands and arms, but if you're outgrowing the position at 19, you're probably going to outgrow it no matter what you do -- but his bat still has the promise to play at other positions on the field. At the plate, he wraps his bat slightly and loads a little deep, but he has quick wrists and can catch up to better fastballs. He'll have to work on pitch recognition while also maintaining his conditioning in 2010 to re-establish himself as an elite prospect, but he has the makeup and the natural ability.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]30[/td][td]Josh Vitters[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 27, 1989 )
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '09 Level: A (Daytona)
2009 ranking: 14[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] MINOR LEAGUE STATS (3 SEASONS)[/h4]
Vitters has everything he needs to become an impact hitter at the major league level -- except patience. And patience he lacks in the way the Sahara lacks water: He drew 12 unassisted walks in 2009, and has drawn 26 in total in 830 pro plate appearances. He's not a hacker; he's had strong contact rates at every level where he's played so far, and his swing is superb -- with a strong front side, good hand speed and excellent hip rotation to generate hard contact and power. He projects, based on his swing and ability to make contact all over the zone, as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power; but with a .320 on-base percentage, which may make you a Hall of Famer to the statistically ignorant, but means Vitters will produce a lot of outs in between those big hits. In the field, he's never going to be plus at third base but is playable there with plenty of arm. It's hard to teach Vitters' ability to make contact, and he may fit the cliché about the hitter who's so good at making contact that he never has to get to ball four, but in today's game you have to get on base to be an impact bat at a corner, and Vitters will have to dramatically increase his walk rate as he moves up the ladder to be that kind of player.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]31[/td][td]Derek Norris[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Feb. 14, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '09 Level: A (Hagerstown)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Norris is an offensive catcher whose defense is the subject of major debate among pro scouts. He does have arm strength, but his receiving and footwork are considered shaky; he's a good height (6-0) and hasn't outgrown the position yet, but he's thickly built. Adding much more weight could cost him his ability to stay behind the plate. If he does remain a catcher, he has superstar potential and could end up in the top 15-20 prospects next fall because he has an advanced approach at the plate (finishing 15th in walks in the minors last year) and already hits for power -- his 2009 was more impressive than it seems at first glance: He wore down in his first full pro season and hit just .174/.405/.233 after July. Norris missed the Arizona Fall League after breaking his hamate bone, an injury that lacks long-term consequences but usually saps a hitter's power for up to a year after the surgery, so it's not a crisis if his power dips in 2010.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]32[/td][td]Ryan Westmoreland [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: April 27, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: A (Lowell)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Westmoreland was one of the top prep players available in the 2008 Rule 4 draft, but was widely considered unsignable due to his strong commitment to Vanderbilt. (Imagine how much more stacked Vanderbilt's 2011 draft class -- which still features potential first-rounders Sonny Gray, Jack Armstrong and Jason Esposito -- would be with Westmoreland in it.) The Red Sox signed Westmoreland for $2 million, but he had hurt the labrum in his throwing shoulder and ended up having offseason surgery between 2008 and 2009, limiting him to DH duty for most of last summer. He was still recovering from the original injury, playing left field rather than center when he picked up a glove again, only to break his collarbone slamming into the outfield wall while catching a fly ball, further holding back his development. Westmoreland is a top-10 talent with his combination of athleticism, power potential and feel for hitting, and he showed very advanced plate discipline in his limited season in Lowell last year while going a remarkable 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts. The combination of catastrophic injuries does raise the specter of Chris Snelling Disease, in which a prospect is so prone to injury that he can't develop properly as a hitter. But with a full season in 2010, Westmoreland could largely put those concerns to rest.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]33[/td][td]Chris Carter [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 18, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: First Base/DH[/td][td]Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '09 Level: AAA (Sacramento)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Carter has made impressive strides since his arrival in the Oakland organization as a power-or-nothing hitter with a long swing and no defensive value, and while he's still probably a solid DH with thump, he has a chance to contribute in a few different ways. He made a concerted effort to improve his walks without increasing his strikeouts, becoming more selective while cutting down on his normal swing as part of the process. If he gets a pitch to drive, he'll load his hands a little deeper to give him more leverage and bring his plus power back out of storage. Carter is limited defensively and will probably max out as a fringe-average first baseman, although the positional logjam in Oakland may make him a DH by default. Even in Oakland's ballpark he should be good for 30 homers a year and a solid on-base percentage by his peak.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]34[/td][td]Eric Hosmer [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 24, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base[/td][td]Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '09 Level: A (Wilmington)
2009 ranking: 17[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Hosmer's first pro season was something of a disappointment, but he had a couple of valid reasons for his performance. One was his widely publicized astigmatism, resolved by late-summer laser surgery that he says made a huge difference in his vision. The other was a hairline fracture in one of the fingers on his glove hand, sustained while diving to field a ball; the finger swelled up enough to affect his ability to grip the bat and drive the ball in games. When healthy and seeing the ball, Hosmer is an elite hitting prospect with quick wrists, a good feel for the strike zone and well-above-average raw power. He's a good athlete with a plus arm, and if the Royals choose not to try him in right field, he'll be a plus defender at first base. The Royals pushed him to Wilmington, a pitchers' park at a level for which he really wasn't ready, but a half-season or perhaps a full season there with his new eyes should get him back on track to stardom.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]35[/td][td]Pedro Alvarez [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 6, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '09 Level: AA (Altoona)
2009 ranking: 38[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Alvarez got off to a horrendous start to his pro career in 2009, only to pick up his performance after a surprising promotion to Double-A, where he went on a two-month tear boosted by a .438 BABIP in July and August. Alvarez has big power: He's a strong guy with a swing geared to drive the ball in the air, giving him 65 or 70 raw power that will get him to the big leagues regardless of other holes in his game. He still has problems against left-handed pitchers -- he hit .267/.320/.394 against them in 2009, and struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances against them in Double-A -- because he doesn't see the ball out of a southpaw's hand anywhere near as well as he sees it out of a righty's. He's also still below-average at third base and likely to outgrow the position as he gets older, as his lower half is thick and he doesn't have the quickness the position requires. Those two flaws keep him out of the class of all-bat prospects like Jesus Montero or better defensive contributors like Justin Smoak, but he remains the premium prospect in Pittsburgh's system and should be in the middle of their order by 2011.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]36[/td][td]Christian Friedrich [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: July 8, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '09 Level: A (Modesto)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Colorado played it very conservatively with Friedrich, a former Division I starter with advanced off-speed pitches, and, as you might have predicted, he ripped through low-A and had no trouble with the California League, a hitter-friendly circuit that doesn't see many pitchers like this because of teams' fears that the environment will ****** their development. Friedrich has four pitches and misses bats with both his tight, almost-12-to-6 curveball and his cutter, while his fastball sits in the low 90s and his changeup is nearly an average pitch. He's tall and gets on top of the ball well, but doesn't look like he's going to add much velocity. Friedrich's arm works well, but his path is long and he has to work to keep his pitching elbow down when his arm is behind his body. He's fully recovered from the inflamed elbow that cost him a half-dozen starts in the middle of 2009, and he has a chance to reach the majors by the end of the year if he stays healthy, with the upside of a No. 3 or even a fringe No. 2 starter.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]37[/td][td]Jarrod Parker [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 24, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Arizona D-Backs
Top '09 Level: AA (Mobile)
2009 ranking: 35[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Parker will be out for most of 2010 after snapping his elbow in mid-2009, eventually undergoing "the zipper" (a nickname for Tommy John surgery based on the shape of the resulting scar); he should be back on a mound for Arizona's instructional league in September, although it's conceivable he'd be back a few weeks before that. To his credit, he's used the time off to work on his conditioning and get stronger without losing athleticism, all of which should help him remain a starter once he returns from rehab. Prior to blowing out his elbow, Parker was his usual 92-97 mph and even touched 99 in his last outing, and he had made more progress with his changeup after deliberately working on it more in games, to the point where on his best days he could show four above-average or plus pitches. His fastball doesn't have great life and he'll probably be a little fly-ball-oriented, but whether it was a small sample issue or the result of mixing his pitches better, he got ground balls on 55 percent of the balls he allowed in play before he got hurt. Once rebuilt -- and there is the technology -- he should resume his march to the top of a big league rotation after another full year or two in the minors.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]38[/td][td]Shelby Miller [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '09 Level: A (Quad Cities)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Miller was the best prep right-hander in last year's draft class but fell to the Cardinals at the 19th pick due to suspected bonus demands, which turned out to be reasonable for his level of talent. He's a very high-upside pitcher who projects to have two plus pitches between his 92-96 mph fastball that has flashed a little better and a 76-78 mph curveball with good depth. He seldom used his changeup in high school but started showing it more in Quad Cities, where it showed promise as at least a future average pitch. At 6-foot-3, he gets good downhill plane on his pitches and has the height and frame of a front-end starter. His command is well-below-average right now and may have contributed to his slide to St. Louis in the draft, but his arm works well with a high hand separation and short path, and he repeats his delivery. He's not likely to race up the system, but has top-of-the-rotation upside that no one in the Cardinals' system can match.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]39[/td][td]Dee Gordon[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: April 22, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '09 Level: A (Great Lakes)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Gordon, son of longtime big leaguer Tom "Flash" Gordon, fell to the fourth round in the 2008 draft because of academic and discipline issues that made it hard for scouts to see him. But at this point the Dodgers appear to have out-scouted the industry, given how pro scouts are reacting to Gordon's play. Two evaluators independently told me they think he's Jimmy Rollins with less power. Gordon is listed, perhaps generously, at 5-foot-11, and is as thin as a rake despite efforts to put on weight, but he's wiry-strong and has shown he can hit line drives deep to both gaps. So while he may never hit 20 homers in the majors, he should produce plenty of extra-base power. He is a plus-plus runner with an above-average arm and has the athleticism and quickness to play shortstop in the big leagues. Gordon's feel for the game is poor, especially for the son of a big leaguer, but he was primarily a basketball player until his senior year in high school. The inexperience shows in all facets of his game, from pitch recognition to high caught-stealing rates. His upside is substantial, but he's more like a 19-year-old player in a 22-year-old body; he has to develop at a faster pace than a typical tools prospect to reach that Rollins-like potential.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]40[/td][td]Kyle Drabek [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 8, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '09 Level: AA (Reading)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Drabek missed most of 2007 and 2008 due to Tommy John surgery, but he had a strong return in 2009, dominating the Florida State League and holding his own as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He has a chance to throw two above-average pitches, with a curveball that's currently plus, 79-80 mph with a hard tilt that approaches a slider break, and a fastball that's comfortably 90-93 mph, although it's flat and he could benefit from mixing in a cutter or two-seamer so hitters don't just sit on the four-seamer. He throws a changeup, but it's not effective enough against left-handed hitters to grade as average. He's shown he can throw strikes, but doesn't command the ball well to his glove side yet, although command is the last thing to return for pitchers who've had Tommy John surgery and Drabek has thrown only 267 innings in pro ball. He's got some head violence at the end of his delivery, which could point to a future in the pen, although for now he should continue to start and will have the benefit of working with a new player development staff on his stuff and mechanics. With some cleanup and a third pitch, he has a chance to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]41[/td][td]Wilmer Flores[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: Aug. 6, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: New York Mets
Top '09 Level: A (Savannah)
2009 ranking: 55[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Flores, as predicted, broke with a full-season club in 2009 and held his own despite playing most of the year at 17. He has very quick wrists and is short to the ball with good finish. The ball flies off his bat, especially in BP, in which he shows the promise of future plus power, and in games he has already shown that he can square balls up against pitchers two or three years his senior. In fact, of players with at least 400 at-bats in the Sally League in 2009, only one hitter had fewer strikeouts than Flores did. His main deficiency as a player is very slow feet, even though he's not thickly built, and he has no shot to stay at shortstop and little shot of handling third base, which means he'll end up at first base or in an outfield corner, although there's an excellent chance his bat plays in any of those positions.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]42[/td][td]Wilson Ramos[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '09 Level: AA (New Britain)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Ramos has had trouble staying healthy, but when he plays he hits, and he plays a premium position at which bats like his are hard to find. He missed time in 2009 with a broken finger and a partially torn hamstring, which makes his .317/.341/.454 line in 54 games at Double-A even more impressive. Ramos is big, taller than his listed 6-foot height, and his large frame suggests he might outgrow the position. But right now he throws extremely well (he's nailed 43 percent of would-be base stealers in the past two years) and his receiving is adequate. He does need to work on the intangible aspects of catching, like handling a staff, something the Twins value very highly in their catchers. At the plate, he has strong hands and very good hand-eye coordination, with a hard, line-drive-oriented swing; he's also impatient, drawing just six walks in his abbreviated 2009 season, and will have to up his patience or hit well above .300 if he ever has to move out from behind the dish. Of course, the position Ramos plays is rather well filled right now in Minnesota, and a contract extension for Joe Mauer would probably make Ramos one of the most valuable prospects on the trading block this season.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]43[/td][td]Arodys Vizcaino[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 13, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: A (Staten Island)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Vizcaino was the key to the Javier Vazquez trade even though he has yet to appear above short-season ball, which speaks to his potential as a front-line starter. His fastball is already 91-93 mph, flashing a little above that, with good life, and he hides the ball well to help the pitch play up. His best off-speed pitch is a hammer curveball that is plus at times with good depth and a slight two-plane break. His feel for pitching is advanced for someone his age, and while his arm action is short and repeatable he can lose his slot and start to drift downward, something he'll have to eliminate via instruction. He has a chance to move up the Atlanta system quickly and could catch up to fellow high-upside arms Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado soon.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]44[/td][td]Carlos Triunfel[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 27, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Second Base/Infield[/td][td]Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '09 Level: AA (W. Tennessee)
2009 ranking: 22[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Triunfel's 2009 was a lost year. He broke his leg a week after the regular season started, and his leg was still bothering him somewhat in his brief stint in the Arizona Fall League. He starts with his hands high but has great hand speed that he uses to close to the ball quickly and spray the field with line drives, an approach that was unchanged even after six months off between the leg break and his AFL stint. He's strong enough to hit for fringe-average power, but he's not a physical guy and probably won't have more than above-average power when he peaks. He is -- or was -- an above-average runner and base stealer, and played well at second base with some ability to play shortstop, where he may get some reps this year as well. The lost year of development hurts, and he was rusty when he played in the AFL in November; he's also been so young for his leagues that he's never performed the way a player with his hitting ability should perform in his minor league career. I mentioned last year that many scouts are skeptical about Triunfel's listed date of birth, which has him turning 20 in late February, but there's still no hard evidence to contradict it. As always, if he turns out to be two or three years older than reported, his prospect status is significantly lower.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]45[/td][td]Casey Crosby[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 17, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '09 Level: A (West Michigan)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Crosby blew out his elbow minutes after signing a pro contract with Detroit, which paid above slot to buy him away from a commitment to Illinois. The 2009 season was Crosby's first full or nearly full one in pro ball, and he showed better stuff than he'd had prior to the surgery, with his body having filled out and his elbow having returned to its original strength. Crosby's fastball is 92-97 mph with excellent downhill plane, allowing him to miss bats and also get ground balls just by varying the location on the same pitch. His curveball is already above-average: He gets on top of the ball in his delivery, giving the pitch good depth with tight rotation. His changeup is already average and should be better than that with more usage. His command and control were off when he first returned to the mound, which is typical for pitchers who've had Tommy John surgery in their first full year back, but his walk rate dropped as the year went on: He walked 26 in the first two months of 2009, covering 43.2 innings, and then walked just 24 in 66.2 innings the rest of the way. He's the type of prospect who could jump into the top 10 with a healthy year in 2010 if he carries the command improvements over for a full season.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]46[/td][td]Simon Castro[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: April 9, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '09 Level: A (Fort Wayne)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Castro seems to be flying under the radar, probably because he plays in the Padres' system and hadn't appeared in a full-season league until his outstanding debut in 2009. Castro led the Midwest League in strikeouts in 2009, and while he wasn't young for the level, his arsenal is legit and will play at higher levels. Castro has always had a big fastball, sitting 92-94 mph and reaching the mid-90s comfortably as a starter, but last year his two main off-speed pitches, his slider and changeup, made big progress -- the slider flashing plus with hard, late break. He has a great pitcher's body and could still add some weight to his 6-foot-5 frame, but all he has to do to become at least a solid No. 2 starter in the big leagues is get consistency with the slider and improve his fastball command within the zone, since he's already shown he can throw strikes and miss bats.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]47[/td][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 18, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Second Base[/td][td]Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '09 Level: AA (Huntsville)
2009 ranking: 45[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Lawrie hit well in the Midwest League for a 19-year-old, and if he had a clear position he might have spent the second half in high-A. The Brewers did move him up two levels in mid-August, after which he scuffled. Lawrie has a good swing, almost a classic left-handed swing but from the right side, with tremendous rotation and raw power. I've seen him overstride in BP, but he quiets down a little in games, still taking all-out swings but with such a good swing path that he covers the plate and struggles only with changing speeds. He's an intense, aggressive, "one-speed" player who might benefit from dialing it down a notch every now and then, and the lack of finesse in his game is part of what holds him back as an infielder. He played all over as an amateur but settled on second in part because he thought he had a faster path to the majors there. There's still a realistic chance he'll have to move to first or an outfield corner, limiting his projected value.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]48[/td][td]Jhoulys Chacin[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 7, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 74[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Chacin struggled in an emergency promotion to the majors when he got away from his game, but was dominant again in the minors and remains a high-probability pitching prospect. His calling card is his excellent command, which carries across all three pitches, as well as plus control. His ability to locate within the zone has helped him carve up minor league hitters even in tough pitching environments. His fastball is solid-average at 89-93 mph with a little sinking tail, but his changeup is the plus pitch, about 8-9 mph off the fastball, with good arm speed. His main area for improvement is the curveball, which is in the mid-70s with a soft break, but I have seen him throw an average curveball so there's reason to believe it's in the arm. His delivery has some violence to it, but he repeats it and commands the ball, so there's no reason to tinker with his mechanics unless he comes up hurt. Another half or full season in the minors to refine the curveball -- or perhaps an apprenticeship in the Rockies' bullpen as a long man, just to keep him away from Colorado Springs -- would help.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]49[/td][td]Mike Trout[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: Aug. 7, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Center Field[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '09 Level: A (Cedar Rapids)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Trout rose quickly on draft boards last spring once it stopped raining in southern New Jersey, and I think if the first round was held over again today he'd go a lot higher than 25th overall. Trout is a very good athlete who demonstrated in pro ball that the advanced approach he showed in high school was real: As a true 17-year-old in the Arizona Rookie League, he had the highest OPS of any player under 20 in the circuit, with strong walk and contact rates. Trout can wrap his bat slightly before swinging, and his front side gets a little soft on contact, but his pitch recognition and bat speed help compensate for it. He's a good athlete and an above-average runner who has the range for center, with a fringy arm. He should start the year in the Midwest League, and, given his feel for the game and his plate discipline, I wouldn't be shocked if he finished it in high-A, which would put him on the early track to stardom.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]50[/td][td]Jay Jackson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 27, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '09 Level: AAA (Iowa)
2009 ranking: 98[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Jackson's first full year in pro ball in 2008 was a huge success, as he jumped all the way to AA and pitched well as a starter, missing plenty of bats with his low-90s fastball and out-pitch slider. Jackson was a two-way player at Furman University, and the athleticism is evident when he's on the mound, as he has a loose, easy arm action that he repeats pretty well. He throws four pitches, with the sharp mid-80s slider his best offering, but his changeup, while improving, could still use some work, and most of his trouble this year came against left-handed hitters. Jackson's 2009 season was interrupted by a punitive demotion after he had some very minor off-field issues, and he resolved the problem enough for the Cubs to promote him to AAA for the last week of the season. He could appear in the majors this year in relief, but he has enough of a chance to start, especially if he improves the changeup or finds another weapon to use against lefties, that a year in AAA would make a lot of sense.
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[table][tr][td]51[/td][td]Hector Rondon[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 26, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: AAA (Columbus)
2009 ranking: UR -- sleeper[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Rondon arrived on the scene at the 2008 Futures Game and followed up that strong season with an even better one despite two promotions that brought him to the cusp of the big leagues. He won't turn 22 for another month, but he has already shown an unusual ability (for someone so young) to pitch with his fastball, commanding it in and around the zone; it's 91-94 mph with great life. His best off-speed pitch is his changeup, above-average at times at 83-84 with good action and arm speed. He's still working on his slider, which remains inconsistent and often has an early break. His control is superb -- he's walked 101 in 480 pro innings, and just 29 in a full minor league season in 2009. He's shown that even on nights when he doesn't have the consistent slider or his best changeup, he can pitch with his fastball. Pitchers without great breaking balls often have lower ceilings as starters, but Rondon's ability to throw strikes, soak up innings and command the fastball give him a chance to exceed that limitation.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]52[/td][td]Hank Conger[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 29, 198
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '09 Level: AA (Arkansas)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Hyun "Hank" Conger was a first-round selection in 2006 but a litany of injuries -- a broken hamate bone, shoulder surgery, back and hamstring problems -- prevented him from logging a full season until 2009, when he played 123 games in the regular season and another 15 in the Arizona Fall League. He's a switch-hitter who projects to hit for power and some average, but he also improved his OBP last year. Right-handed, he has good balance and hip rotation with loft in his swing that should produce more power down the road. Left-handed, his swing is a touch longer but has more loft to it. His plate discipline had been poor in the past, a function of poor pitch recognition, but regular playing time helped him work on that, and in '09 he more than doubled his pro career walk total. He has arm strength and throws well, but his bulk slows him down a little behind the plate, as his feet don't work as well as you'd like a catcher's to work. The best-case scenario on Conger is that he's an offensive catcher who hits in the middle of a lineup with power and some patience while helping control the opposition's running game.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]53[/td][td]Anthony Rizzo[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 8, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: A (Salem)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Boston's (former) top first-base prospect, Lars Anderson, struggled last year, but Rizzo is on the rise. Rizzo lost most of 2008 to his battle with limited stage classical Hodgkin's lymphoma. He's fully recovered now and, during his time away from baseball, transformed himself physically, making himself leaner and more athletic. In the process, he became one of the best defensive first basemen in the minors. He's a left-handed hitter with a very easy stroke that generates line drives to all fields, although as he grows he should develop 25-30 home run power. His approach at the plate remains immature, unsurprising given the time he missed, and he has to work on getting himself into better counts where he can stay back and drive the ball. He can't match Anderson's offensive potential, but Rizzo's defensive prowess and strong 2009 put him ahead of Lars on the Red Sox rankings.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]54[/td][td]Alcides Escobar[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 16, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 45[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Escobar today is pretty close to what he's going to be at his peak -- a plus defensive shortstop who makes contact, without secondary skills. Escobar has good range and makes solid reads at shortstop with good footwork, so he can turn plays quickly and is solid on the DP. His swing is short and he generates good bat speed, squaring up above-average fastballs, but his recognition of breaking balls needs work. His 34 unintentional walks in 2009 represented a new career high. He hits balls hard to the gaps but won't ever have more than fringe-average power, and he needs to reduce his tendency to lengthen his swing to try to pull the ball out. Instead, he should stick with his whole-field approach and use the off field when he falls behind. He's a 65-70 runner (on the 20-80 scale) who runs the bases well, with strong stolen-base percentages the last two years. He should be entrenched as Milwaukee's shortstop for the next four to six years because of the value he'll add with his glove.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]55[/td][td]Zach Stewart[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 28, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '09 Level: AAA (Las Vegas)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
The Blue Jays wanted Stewart in the 2008 draft but missed out on him by 11 picks when Cincinnati took him, so Toronto did the only logical thing -- they traded for him a year later. A reliever at Texas Tech until the last few weekends of his college career, Stewart handled a full-time move to the rotation with no trouble last year and now projects as a mid-rotation starter with a chance to be a good No. 2. Stewart is a sinker/slider pitcher who gets plenty of ground balls with his 91-95 fastball (as a starter; it was harder in relief). But he can also miss bats with a hard slider in the low- to mid-80s that is already a consistently above-average pitch. His changeup, which he rarely used in relief, improved to the point that he had virtually no platoon split in 2009, the exception coming in the home run department (he gave up three, all to lefties), and his arm action is short and repeatable to handle 100-plus reps every fifth day. He'd project as a top-shelf reliever if he returned to that role, but the Blue Jays intend to start him and hope he develops into that rare bird among starters who misses bats and keeps the ball in the park.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]56[/td][td]Lars Anderson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 25, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: AA (Portland)
2009 ranking: 7[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
The universal answer to the question of "What happened to Lars Anderson in 2009?" seems to be "You tell me." Anderson came into the season as a polished hitter with patience, plate coverage and power, started slowly and finished horribly, with just one home run after June and a .201/.298/.265 line during that span. Nothing changed about his mechanics -- he starts with a big move down into the hitting position, after which he takes a short path to the ball and ... well, he used to drive it to all fields and show big pull power, at least in BP, but everything went awry for him in 2009, and the cause appears to be more mental than physical or mechanical. Anderson is an unusually intelligent player -- he was spotted at spring training one year on a back field, by himself, reading "Lonesome Dove" -- and should be able to find his way out of the morass, but sometimes the game's challenges get too deep into a player's head, and some players never recover.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]57[/td][td]Jose Tabata[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 12, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Right Field[/td][td]Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '09 Level: AAA (Indianapolis)
2009 ranking: 32[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Tabata has been on all three iterations of this list but keeps moving down because of questions about his makeup and performance. He seems to have settled in as an offensive right fielder, but with a dwindling chance to be an impact player. The one thing Tabata definitely can do is hit, and he makes it look easy with a simple swing and excellent hand-eye coordination; he's on his front foot a little early and opens up slightly, both of which may be reducing his power output. He has shown he can handle right field and has a plus arm there, but the thickness of his body has ruled out center, which is just as well with Andrew McCutchen stationed there for the next four to six years. Outside his awful stint in Trenton in 2008, which precipitated his trade to Pittsburgh, Tabata's composite line in full-season leagues is .302/.372/.417, most of which came before his 21st birthday in August. The two major questions now on Tabata are whether his pattern of making very hard contact is going to lead to above-average power in games, and whether his listed date of birth is accurate. It's still too early to rule out a power increase, although he has a long way to go in that department to be an above-average bat in a corner; as for the latter, if he's really 23 or 24, he wouldn't make the Top 100 at all.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]58[/td][td]Tyler Flowers[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 24 (DOB: Jan. 24, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Chicago White Sox
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 51[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Flowers is ready to play in the majors every day, at least offensively. He'll just be marking time in Charlotte to start the year, behind a player he could outhit right now. Flowers' calling card is his enormous power; his swing has some length early, but he keeps his weight back and gets great rotation to combine for big-time power, comfortably a 60 on the 20-80 scale and possibly higher. He's very selective and runs deep counts, so while he'll swing and miss and rack up some strikeouts, he's also posted OBPs over .400 at high-A and Double-A and has to hit only about .250 or so to be a major contributor offensively for his position. His arm is average at best, and he's improving but blocky behind the plate with heavy feet; he can be an everyday catcher, but largely because his bat will be special there and will outweigh any defensive shortcomings.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]59[/td][td]Daryl Jones[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: June 25, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '09 Level: AA (Springfield)
2009 ranking: 50[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Jones is an incredible athlete along the lines of a Domonic Brown, with a solid swing and good plate discipline for someone his age and with his light level of baseball experience. He was a three-sport athlete in high school, playing football and track and field. Until LASIK surgery in 2007, he hadn't shown any progress as a hitter in pro ball, but he broke out in 2008 only to have a quad strain turn chronic and cost him nearly all of July and August. He's a plus-plus runner who shows good pitch recognition and sprays line drives to all fields. Where Jones may fall short as a hitter is in the power department -- he's pretty linear and doesn't transfer his weight fully, striding but keeping his weight back even through contact, so even though he's physically wired for power he's not going to fully realize that with his current swing. On defense, he has the speed for center but his reads continue to need work, and his arm won't allow him to play right. With Colby Rasmus establishing himself in center field in St. Louis, Jones will probably shift to left unless he's traded, and he'll have to get more power out of his swing to be a star in a spot that's often reserved for guys who can hit but offer little on defense.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]60[/td][td]Jordan Lyles[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 19, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Houston Astros
Top '09 Level: A (Lexington)
2009 ranking: UR -- sleeper[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Lyles was tabbed an overdraft by some clubs when Houston took him in the sandwich round in the 2008 Rule 4 draft, but he established himself as their best prospect with a very strong full-season debut in the Sally League at age 18. Lyles frequently used a cutter as an amateur, but the Astros made him shelve it and had him throw a traditional curveball as his primary breaking ball to go with the above-average changeup he already had. His fastball is average now at 89-92, but he can show a hitter 94, and the changeup has hard, late tailing action like a two-seamer. By the end of the season, Lyles had resumed throwing the cutter, but only after some tinkering by Houston's player-development people helped him convert it into more of a true slider, giving him a chance to be a four-pitch guy. Lyles' control is already above-average and his command projects as the same or better. With the potential for him to add velocity, given his 6-foot-4 frame as he approaches the legal drinking age, Lyles could become a No. 2 starter or more for a team that hasn't developed anything close to that since Roy Oswalt.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]61[/td][td]Josh Bell[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 13, 1986)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '09 Level: AA (Bowie)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Bell's 2008 ended with knee surgery, but his 2009 ended with his being traded to Baltimore, where he's now the heir apparent at the hot corner. Bell is here because when he hits left-handed, he rakes, hitting .340/.419/.625 against right-handed pitchers in 2009, even after crossing the chasm to Double-A, where weaker hitters are exposed quickly by pitchers with better command or off-speed stuff. He has excellent bat speed from the left side, accelerating his wrists very quickly from the set position, although his swing is a little flat and might be more geared to doubles than home runs. On the negative side, he's futile from the right side, and he's reaching the point where the Orioles may have to consider having him give up switch-hitting if he doesn't improve in the next year. He's improving at third base and projects as an average glove there, with solid hands and an above-average arm. He should be able to take over in Baltimore sometime between midyear 2010 and the start of 2011 depending on how well he fares against left-handed pitching, regardless of how he does it.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]62[/td][td]Matt Dominguez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 28, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third base[/td][td]Organization: Florida Marlins
Top '09 Level: AA (Jacksonville)
2009 ranking: 73[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Dominguez might be the best defensive third baseman in the minors and could easily handle the position in the big leagues right now if his bat were anywhere near ready. Dominguez has quick reactions to go with good reads and a natural feel for the ball at third base, and he's got a plus arm, as well; he should be a 70 defender at third (20-80 scale) when he reaches the majors. At the plate, though, he needs work. His swing works fine, but he gets his weight all on his front foot and ends up all hands, so he struggles to hit for power unless he gets a mistake or cheats on a fastball. He also showed in the Arizona Fall League that his recognition of off-speed pitches is poor, and if he were 22 he'd be a nonprospect. The Marlins have pushed him aggressively because of his defense, and a full year in Double-A in 2010 will give him plenty of experience facing good breaking balls and changeups to tell us if he's going to be able to make that adjustment and become an above-average big leaguer.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]63[/td][td]Julio Teheran[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Jan. 27, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: A (Rome)
2009 ranking: UR -- sleeper[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Teheran was one of my picks to jump on this list last offseason, and now he's one of my picks to jump up into the top quarter of it. Teheran, the nephew of an Atlanta scout, barely pitched in 2008 after the team took a conservative approach with his sore shoulder. But in '09, he showed why teams are increasingly scouting the north coast of Colombia. He's got a huge arm already despite his rail-thin frame (6-foot-2, 150 pounds), 91-96 mph on the fastball with an above-average changeup, and his curveball also has a chance to be above-average in time. He's a good athlete, but his arm action isn't pretty and he has to work to stay on top of the ball if that curveball is going to be a consistent weapon for him. He has good rhythm on the mound and pitches very aggressively -- he hit almost as many batters as he walked in 2009, which usually isn't an accident -- but he has to avoid telegraphing his off-speed pitches. He still has a lot of room to fill out and could easily end up a No. 1 starter or, if he doesn't get stronger or doesn't develop the breaking ball, an upper-echelon closer.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]64[/td][td]Ike Davis[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: March 22, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First base[/td][td]Organization: New York Mets
Top '09 Level: AA (Binghamton)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Davis' mediocre debut in 2008 turned out to be a red herring, as he finished his first full season in 2009 in Double-A and isn't far from reaching the majors. He has raw power, especially dead pull power, and showed that he can murder a fastball and lay off a lot of pitches out of the zone against right-handed pitchers. On the downside, Davis doesn't hit left-handed pitching at all, and even against right-handers struggles to recognize off-speed stuff. He's a reasonably good athlete who can handle first base and actually has a plus arm -- he was 92-94 mph as a reliever in college -- although that's less relevant at the position. A full year in Double-A/Triple-A to work on pitch recognition and on improving his approach against left-handers is probably critical for his future as an everyday player, but he has a chance to be an above-average one if he can shed the "platoon player" tag with more reps.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]65[/td][td]Jason Castro[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: June 18, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Houston Astros
Top '09 Level: AA (Corpus Christi)
2009 ranking: 96[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Castro doesn't have much star potential but does project as a solid everyday catcher if he can answer some lingering questions about his defense, which has a few teams questioning whether he will be able to play the position in the big leagues. I think he can, since he has the arm strength and enough athleticism to learn the position with more instruction and reps. His swing is very simple, with a short path to the ball and some loft, and he keeps his weight back well. But because he's not a big guy and lacks great bat speed, he probably projects to have only average power. Still, he should hit for average and get on base. His defense is probably adequate now to play in the big leagues, especially with nothing blocking him in Houston, and with some improvement he could be an average regular for an organization that hasn't had that behind the plate in a decade.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]66[/td][td]Todd Frazier[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Feb. 12, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: AAA (Louisville)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Frazier has reached Triple-A on the strength of good (but not great) offensive performances and the hope that he can play an infield position in the big leagues after he moved off his amateur position of shortstop. His swing is awkward, with a big move down and a front-arm bar; he gets his weight on his front leg but buckles his knee, and between that and the flat swing plane, he's not going to hit for much power. He does have good hand-eye coordination and bat speed once he gets going, leading to hard contact, but so far he hasn't shown the power or patience to profile in an outfield corner if he has to move there. His current position -- sort of -- is second base, but he's very rough there, may not have the feet for the position and risks offensive stagnation because of the toll of playing second base. His best chance to play in the infield is third base, but he's barely played it as a pro because of Juan Francisco, a toolsy third baseman who has huge power but has drawn 55 unintentional walks in nearly 1,900 pro plate appearances. Frazier earns very high marks for his makeup, with one scout comparing his to Dustin Pedroia's, both in the sense that Pedroia made himself a better player through his work ethic and outlook, and Pedroia's character as a team leader. If the Reds are serious about Frazier's playing every day in the majors, they may have to hold Francisco back a half-season to let Frazier learn the hot corner in Triple-A.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]67[/td][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 12, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First base[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: AA (Mississippi)
2009 ranking: 65[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Freeman is yet another former two-way star on this list -- if you're a legitimate prospect as both a position player and a pitcher, you're probably a pretty good athlete and offer more upside than the typical one-way prospect. At the plate, he sets up with a wide base and doesn't stride or really transfer his weight through his swing. So while he has good rotation to hit for power, he's mostly hands at this point and has traded some power for high contact rates. Unlike a lot of young left-handed hitters, he shows no appreciable platoon split, and while he's not exactly patient, he's not a hacker. Freeman is an above-average defender at first base, and there's some reason to expect more growth as a hitter given his youth and frame. But I still see him as a guy who'll hit for average with doubles power, but not the high OBP or home run totals that would make him a star at first base.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]68[/td][td]Matt Sweeney[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: April 4, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: A (Charlotte)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Sweeney came to Tampa Bay with lefty Alex Torres and middle infielder Sean Rodriguez in the Scott Kazmir deal -- it was such a large price to pay in future talent that the Angels also picked up all of Kazmir's salary. All three prospects will play in the big leagues, with Sweeney offering the best chance for above-average performance because of his bat. Sweeney has a fantastic swing, with good hands, good bat control and quick wrist acceleration, leading to hard, line-drive contact, and he can drive balls out anywhere from left-center to right. He blew out his knee and missed the 2008 season, then played in just 68 games in 2009, so he's lost a significant amount of development time and is less polished than a typical 21-year-old corner bat. Defensively, he's played third base but is likely to end up at first since he's heavy-footed, and the knee surgery didn't make him any faster. Even at first, his bat should play, but he'll need more than one full season of at-bats to get there.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]69[/td][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 11, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '09 Level: A (Wilmington)
2009 ranking: 44[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
It wasn't a great year for Moustakas, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2007 draft, but it wasn't as bad as the stat line makes it appear. He was 20 years old in high-A in a severe pitchers' park; he did hit .292/.331/.473 on the road, a very respectable line for someone at that age and level in a half season's worth of at bats, although you can see even there that his plate discipline isn't strong. Moustakas has a smooth swing and gets to the ball quickly, with more defined loft in his swing the last time I saw him, giving him more chance to hit for power, which he's already strong enough to do. He's very rough at third -- he's built like Mr. Strong, for those of you familiar with the Mr./Ms. children's books -- with an outstanding arm but a slow lower half. He could end up being adequate there, but I think it's more likely he ends up in right field or at first base. I refuse to give up on the idea of his playing catcher, as he did a handful of times in high school. He'll play in Double-A this year at 21 and, while "make or break" might be too strong, it will clarify whether Moustakas has a chance to be an impact bat or just a solid-average one.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]70[/td][td]Austin Jackson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Feb. 1, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '09 Level: AAA (Scranton-WB)
2009 ranking: 46[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Jackson's upside keeps dropping as he moves up the ladder, so while he's still young enough to improve, he's now a player without a plus tool who'll play in the majors but whose chance for stardom is slim. Jackson's tools are average to a tick above across-the-board, with speed probably his best tool at the moment and power his worst; he can play center but isn't a top-flight defender yet. His contact and walk rates have been dropping as he's been promoted, and he's never had a chance to catch his breath by repeating a level for even an additional half-season. All those negatives don't add up to a bad prospect -- a true center fielder with a league-average bat is a good player, and that's a realistic projection for Jackson right now.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]71[/td][td]Michael Brantley[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: May 15, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: AAA (Columbus)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Brantley has some of the best bat control of anyone on this list, with an improving eye at the plate and above-average speed that all plays up because of his feel for the game. He keeps his hands back incredibly well, letting the ball travel and then ripping the bat through the zone and showing the ability to shoot an outside pitch down the left field line. He can run but, more importantly, is a very high-percentage base stealer who reads pitchers well, stealing on over 81 percent of attempts in his minor league career. He's a good center fielder who could probably play center every day for a number of teams, but won't get that chance in Cleveland unless Grady Sizemore gets hurt again. Brantley's main liability is lack of power, which may limit his ability to play in an outfield corner unless he hits and reaches base at the top end of his abilities -- which he might very well do given his instincts and ability to square up so many pitches.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]72[/td][td]Mike Leake[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 12, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: AFL (Peoria)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 FALL STATS[/h4]
Leake was one of the most polished pitchers in the 2009 draft, and between that and his lack of projection, he should reach the majors fairly soon. Leake pitched at 88-92 mph in college but will probably be more 87-90 working every fifth day. But that two-seamer has a hard, late tailing action that should get ground balls and even break some bats. He has a standard assortment of off-speed pitches, including a short two-planer curveball with a break that appears to accelerate as it approaches the batter, a hard changeup around 80-81 mph with some tail, and a slider with good tilt just below that velocity. He's a serious strike-thrower who commands his fastball and works fast, which may give hitters less time to adjust to the way he's changing speeds and locations on them. At Arizona State, Leake also played some outfield and could swing the bat a little, so he's a good athlete and fields well on the mound, and his arm works well. With four pitches that move, plus command and control, plus his being a good athlete, he's a top-100 guy -- and even if he tops out as a No. 3 starter, the fact that he'll be in the majors this summer makes him a valuable asset.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]73[/td][td]Fernando Martinez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 10, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Right Field[/td][td]Organization: New York Mets
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 16[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Martinez has one of the biggest drops of anyone on this list (from last year's list), but I'm not down on Martinez's offensive potential -- the ball still comes off his bat incredibly well, comparable to Starlin Castro, who sits in the Top 25 of this list because of that skill -- and I could have left Martinez in the Top 25 and justified it. The problems with "F-Mart," aside from the fact that Mets fans decided to give him a nickname more appropriate for a farm-equipment discount store, aren't about baseball skills. He continues to have trouble staying healthy, and there's a real risk of Chris Snelling disease here, with lack of playing time limiting his development; he's never had more than 400 plate appearances in any season, and even including winter ball this offseason, when he was just back from knee surgery, he had fewer than 300 PAs in '09. Martinez has also had his work ethic and conditioning called into question, including a visible lack of effort more than once at the big league level last year. Very few players can coast to major league stardom on talent alone, and Martinez needs to grow up -- he's still just 21 years old -- to turn himself into an elite corner-outfield bat. (It looks like Martinez has exactly 45 days on the Mets' active roster, which would make him eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2010, as well as for this list. If he had just one more day on the active roster, he'd no longer be eligible.)
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]74[/td][td]Michael Saunders[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 19, 1986)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '09 Level: MLB (Seattle)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Saunders was completely overmatched as a 22-year-old in the majors in 2009, but that shouldn't destroy perceptions of his future value, because he still hit well in a tough hitters' park in Triple-A Tacoma earlier in the year. He's a strong kid with noisy hands but good forearm strength, so when he whips the bat through the zone he can still drive the ball even if he's a little late. He's a good athlete who runs well, threw well before 2008 labrum surgery and, strangely enough, he's pretty good at bunting for hits, which isn't a skill you ordinarily see in a tall power hitter. His issues in the majors seemed to stem from some pitch recognition problems, but it's also possible that he was compensating for the shoulder issue with minor alterations in his swing. He's got raw power and speed and can provide good defense in an outfield corner, so even if he's never a high-contact hitter, he's likely to be an average to above-average corner outfielder in the majors.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]75[/td][td]Michael Montgomery[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: July 1, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '09 Level: A (Burlington)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Of the Royals' growing group of pitching prospects -- real ones, not the Jimmy Gobble/Chris George variety -- Montgomery isn't the closest to the majors. He may not even have the highest ceiling, but he's the most intriguing with his combination of skills and potential. He's a tall, lean lefty (6-foot-5, 180 pounds) with a good delivery that he repeats well. His fastball has already moved up since high school from 88-92 mph to 90-93 mph, and it should gradually increase as he fills out his long frame. His best pitch is his changeup, now a plus pitch with good tumble and arm speed, and he's made a lot of progress in transitioning to a traditional curveball from the palm ball he used more often in high school (although the latter could still be a twice-a-game weapon for him down the road). He's a rabid competitor with a good work ethic, and given these strengths plus his physical projection and solid control, he's at the top of the heap of arms on the Royals' farm.
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[table][tr][td]76[/td][td]Yonder Alonso[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: April 8, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: First Base[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: AA (Carolina)
2009 ranking: 76[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Alonso's first year in pro ball was limited by a broken hamate bone, an injury that limits power for as much as a full year after the surgery to repair it, so his modest home run total might not be that indicative of his future potential. Alonso is a bat, bringing a patient approach to the plate and good ability to center the ball against right-handed pitchers. When healthy, he has above-average pull power, projecting to plus, again doing most of his damage against righties. He's a sound defender at first but has slow feet and hard hands, meaning he'll probably never be more than adequate there. Like many young left-handed hitters, Alonso doesn't hit left-handed pitching well at all, but with him it's not a question of contact but of results when he makes contact, which could be a positive (at least he's not flailing hopelessly) or a negative (it's not a question of a inexperience against left-handed pitching in which he's not used to seeing the ball out of a southpaw's hand). Even if that doesn't improve dramatically, he'll still be a valuable big leaguer because of his power/patience combination and ability to at least have good at-bats against left-handed pitchers.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]77[/td][td]Trevor Reckling[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: May 22, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '09 Level: AA (Arkansas)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Reckling became one of the most asked-for prospects in the Angels' farm system over the course of 2009 as the Angels made the odd decision to jump him two levels to AA, where he showed the same potential four-pitch mix that had him on my sleeper list last year but without the command he'd shown the previous year. Reckling's fastball is solid-average, up to 92 mph on the four-seamer, without much projection for more velocity, but it's his assortment of secondary pitches and feel for them that makes him special: a hard curveball with late bite and an improved slider that has late, east-to-west break that allows Reckling to get it under a right-hander's bat. His changeup is his worst pitch at the moment, but he has good deception on it and it's a future-average pitch as well. His ceiling is probably that of a No. 3 starter, but he's young and already survived the AA test; the Angels should slow him down, give him a full year in AAA (or even another month or two in AA), and let him work on his fastball command and overall control before he gets to the big leagues.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]78[/td][td]Tanner Scheppers[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Jan. 17, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '09 Level: AFL (Surprise)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 FALL STATS[/h4]
Scheppers is either a front-line starter in the making or a ticking time bomb. He fell out of the first round in two consecutive drafts because of a combination of high (perceived) bonus demands and an impingement in his shoulder that ended his 2008 season but didn't affect his stuff in 2009, either before the draft or after he signed in the fall. Scheppers has hit 97 mph as a starter and a reliever and sat 95-98 in relief in the Arizona Fall League, adding a filthy, hard, late-breaking two-plane curveball in the lower 80s, both of which are going to help him rack up strikeouts. He has a mid-80s changeup but didn't need it much in the fall. If he didn't have the shoulder question, he'd project as a workhorse due to his body and short arm action. He's 23, has some sort of damage in his shoulder and can miss big league bats now. Texas should push him as aggressively as possible through their system with an eye toward a mid-2010 debut, not only because of the injury issue but also because he's not far from ready, even if it's just in a relief apprenticeship a la Neftali Feliz in 2009.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]79[/td][td]Andrew Cashner[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 11, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '09 Level: AA (Tennessee)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Cashner closed at TCU -- which has really improved its baseball profile in the past few years (including landing the top unsigned player from the 2009 draft, lefty Matt Purke) -- but has worked as a starter in the Cubs' system. It's a big arm, with a fastball at 93-98 mph even over multiple innings and a hard slider with very good tilt in the mid-80s, with his slider command ahead of his fastball command when I saw him. He has a changeup but rarely uses it; it has some tail but mostly just glove-side run. He gets ground balls but it's not extreme, and I don't think his home run rate from 2009 indicates some preternatural ability to keep the ball in the park. What's odd about Cashner is that for a guy with a power arm, he doesn't miss a lot of bats, and neither his control nor his ground-ball rate is high enough for him to be a good starter with a low strikeout rate. If he has to return to the pen, he'll be dominant there, but the Cubs will probably let him continue to start and see if he can improve his command and find a way to miss more bats.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]80[/td][td]Jacob Turner[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: May 21, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '09 Level: Prep
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
The top high school arm in the 2009 Rule 4 draft, Turner landed in Detroit at the ninth overall pick, unsurprising given scouting director David Chadd's proclivity for power arms. Turner sits 94-96 mph, touching 98, with hard boring action on the fastball, and he dominated high school competition in Missouri by blowing it by hitters. He has the arm speed and wrist for his curveball to become plus, as it already has a hard downward break with some angle to it, and he maintains his arm speed on his changeup but rarely used it as an amateur. He has a great pitcher's body and his arm works well after a low hand separation, but he needs to refine his secondary pitches and perhaps see if he can get any downhill plane on his fastball. He signed too late to appear in 2009, but the Tigers are usually aggressive with their young arms and could send him to the Midwest League, either when the season starts or when the weather starts to warm up in May.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]81[/td][td]Matt Moore[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: June 18, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: A (Bowling Green)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Moore took a huge step forward in 2009 -- not just year-over-year, but as the 2009 season went on -- to add his name to the ranks of big arms coming out of Tampa Bay's system. Moore is a three-pitch guy with a low-90s fastball that has touched 96 in previous years and an above-average circle-change. His curveball is slurvy at 79-81 but it has missed minor league bats, more so than his fastball, which has downward tail and is more likely to get ground balls. Moore started the year shakily but his command and control improved over the course of the season, including a big cut in his walk rate after May 31 (33 in 165 PA before, 37 in 357 after). His delivery is easy and he's shown he can dial the fastball up or down. He's one of a number of A-ball arms on this list who could make a huge leap in 2010.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]82[/td][td]Tony Sanchez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: May 20, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '09 Level: A (Bradenton)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Sanchez was a slight overdraft with the fourth overall pick -- I would have taken Tyler Matzek in that spot, but the Pirates weren't willing to come close to Matzek's predraft bonus demands -- but had a strong pro debut and looks like he'll reach the majors earlier than most of the players on whom Pittsburgh passed to take him. He has a good swing and solid approach with moderate to above-average power, although he has a slightly soft front side that limited his contact rate as an amateur. Behind the plate he struggled a little with his throwing in pro ball, but before that his arm had been a strength and should still be one in the future; he has some agility behind the plate despite his size and has worked to keep himself in good condition. He's probably never going to be a star, but he's very likely to be an every-day catcher in the majors who might throw an All-Star season out there once or twice in his career.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]83[/td][td]Chris Withrow[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: April 1, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '09 Level: AA (Chattanooga)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 TOTAL STATS[/h4]
Withrow appeared at No. 86 on the 2008 edition of this list, but fell off after developing The Thing (also known as Steve Blass Disease) in 2008, a malady from which few pitchers recover. Withrow appears to be on his way back, and while his control is still below-average -- more on that in a moment -- he was able to throw a full season in a tough league for pitchers. His arm is live, with a 91-97 mph fastball, and he'll show an above-average curve with good depth, although it's not consistent yet and he can snap it off a little early. He has a changeup that is improving, but it's still below average. Lefties got to him last year: 41 of the 57 walks he issued in 2009 were to left-handed hitters, so against right-handers he was as good as a specialist reliever (71 strikeouts and 16 walks in 231 right-handed batters faced, per minorleaguesplits.com). It's a huge arm with a good frame, and there's No. 1 starter potential here; 2009 was almost like his first year in pro ball, and he could make a huge step forward in his second full year back from oblivion.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]84[/td][td]Zack Wheeler[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: May 21, 1991)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '09 Level: Prep
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
Wheeler, the sixth pick in the 2009 draft, was one of the top prep arms in the pool last year, combining above-average stuff with a competitive approach. He has easy 91-96 mph velocity with excellent late life on the pitch, and pairs it with a hard slurve that projects as plus; he has great feel for the slurve and can sweep it away from righties or tighten it up to hit the inside corner. His changeup is rudimentary, more like a fastball thrown at 80 percent than a proper changeup. His arm works well and quickly, with a major stride toward the plate leading to rapid arm acceleration, with a little projection left, two above-average pitches, and a good delivery. At 6-4, 170 pounds before the draft, he has a good frame and physical projection, although that's probably more for durability than added velocity. He has No. 1/No. 2 starter potential, and given how aggressive the Giants were with Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson, there's reason to believe Wheeler will start out in full-season ball in 2010.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]85[/td][td]Randall Delgado[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 9, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: A (Rome)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Delgado pitched in the shadow of Julio Teheran this year, and I'd bet you could find a few scouts who rated him over Teheran even though I have Delgado second. Delgado is 6-foot-3 and has already put on a good 25 pounds since signing, with improvement in his stuff to match. His fastball is just above average and will touch 94-95, with a changeup that has improved to above-average and a chance for the curveball to be the same. He's still looking for a consistent arm action, which is part of why he's behind Teheran, but his upside isn't much lower than his teammate's. It's to the Braves' credit that they found two top-flight pitching prospects from outside the traditional Latin American talent markets, getting Teheran from Colombia and Delgado from Panama.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]86[/td][td]Ryan Kalish[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: March 28, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Left field[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: AA (Portland)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Kalish broke his wrist not long after signing with Boston in 2006, limiting his playing time in 2007 and perhaps damping down his power output even into 2008, but last year he had a mild breakout. His wrist was healthy and he had more reps under his belt, and of course physical maturation is a major factor for high school players as they approach their age 21/22 seasons. Kalish was primarily a football player growing up, and the Red Sox had to do a lot of work to help him find a consistent swing. Unfortunately, he had to do that work while recovering hand and wrist strength after the injury. He's become a lot stronger since then, and his pitch recognition has also improved. The drift in his swing that affected his output in high school is gone, with much better weight transfer and good hip rotation, so while he's not the quick, athletic teenager the Red Sox signed, he's now a more polished overall hitter who's already coming into some power and may add more.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]87[/td][td]Aaron Crow[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 11, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '09 Level: AFL (Surprise)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 FALL STATS[/h4]
The Royals have some arms coming, and the additions of Crow and Noel Arguelles this fall only added to the pile. Crow hasn't pitched much in the past year and a half after a long holdout that appears to have cost him some money in the end, but assuming the rust isn't too deep he should be able to reach Double-A (or higher) in 2010. He made a handful of starts in independent ball before the draft, sitting 90-93 mph and touching 94, and he showed the same velocity in the Arizona Fall League despite a four-month layoff. He gets some tailing life on the fastball, and his slider has a chance to be plus; it's 80-83 mph with a hard, late break and good tilt. He'll also show an average changeup at 78-80 mph. His delivery isn't pretty, with a big hook in the back, a high elbow as he strides forward and some head violence after release. He should be a fast mover, and given the injury risk in his delivery it's in the Royals' best interest to get him started up the chain.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]88[/td][td]Chris Heisey[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 25 (DOB: Dec. 14, 1984)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfielder[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: AAA (Louisville)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Heisey, a 17th-round pick in 2006 out of Messiah College in Pennsylvania, obliterated AA pitching to establish himself as a solid offensive prospect who's not far from contributing to a major league club. He destroyed AA pitching, earning an invitation to the Futures Game and a ticket to the Arizona Fall League, even though he doesn't have the typical prospect pedigree or a classic swing. Heisey brings his hands way back to nearly fully bar his front arm, but he has the hand-eye coordination, bat speed, and strength to overcome that handicap. His power is line-drive power rather than the big raw power of many of the corner outfield prospects on this list, so he's going to have to continue to hit for average with plenty of doubles to secure an every-day job, with the hope that his power gradually increases as he gets into his late 20s. He did cool off after a late-season promotion to AAA, so it's possible Heisey's performance was just a function of a slightly older player dominating AA; given the positives he brings to the plate, I'd bet at least some of it is real.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]89[/td][td]Kyle Gibson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 23, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '09 Level: Fall instructional
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
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Gibson should have been a top 10-12 pick in the 2009 draft, but a stress fracture in his forearm slid him down to the Twins at No. 22, where they were willing to stomach the risk around his injury for the chance at an arm that would not ordinarily have been available that far down in the round. So far, so good, as Gibson was fully healed by instructional league and pitched at 90-91 mph, touching 93, close to his velocity before the broken bone. His changeup is his best offspeed pitch, as he turns it over well and gets good fade on it, while his slider can show good tilt and bite but remains inconsistent. His arm works extremely well through a drop-and-drift delivery with a final step forward, although he has some recoil at the end as he releases the ball. He's tall with some projection remaining and generates downhill plane on the fastball, keeping the ball on the ground relatively often. The knock on him in the draft was the lack of a real knockout pitch, and he may never have one, but he's fairly polished, with above-average command and control, and should move quickly if the arm issue is behind him.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]90[/td][td]Jake Arrieta[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: March 6, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '09 Level: AAA (Norfolk)
2009 ranking: 92[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Arrieta finished his second full season in pro ball in Triple-A after showing improved control at Double-A in the first half of the year. Beyond the significant improvement in his control, he remains what he was: a four-pitch guy with no plus pitch but nothing below-average. His arm path is long but he repeats it well enough to throw strikes, although his command remains fringe-average at best. He knows how to change speeds and keep hitters off-balance, which may help him play up above the average repertoire. Two scouts with whom I spoke saw Arrieta in 2009 and tabbed him a No. 4 starter, but I wouldn't rule out him becoming a solid No. 3 with some command improvements and his feel for adding and subtracting from his fastball.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]91[/td][td]Jose Iglesias[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 5, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: AFL (Mesa)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 FALL STATS[/h4]
Iglesias is a premium defensive shortstop with a chance to hit, so while he probably won't be any kind of impact bat, he'll be worth a few wins a year with a plus glove and a bat that plays at that position. On defense, he has both quickness and instincts, with good feet, great hands and quick turns and transfers, as well as an above-average arm. He's an aggressive hitter with a swing-first mentality, but his swing is short to the ball and should produce lots of contact, even hard contact once he gets more reps in pro ball. He'll probably max out with grade 40 or so power on the 20-80 scale, but if he can improve the quality of his contact, he'll be productive for the position. At worst, he might be Adam Everett, but I think he'll end up more than an automatic out by the time he reaches the big leagues.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]92[/td][td]Drew Storen[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 11, 1987)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '09 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Storen was a draft-eligible sophomore in 2009 because he was already 21, and the Nationals popped him with the 10th overall pick, signed him immediately, and had him in Double-A by the end of the summer, putting him on track to debut in the big leagues in 2010. He's a three-pitch reliever marked by good command and outstanding control. Storen's two-seam fastball will sit 90-94 mph and occasionally touch a little higher, and it has hard tailing life down and in to right-handers. He varies his breaking ball but most are 82-86 with solid tilt, although he can drop the velocity slightly and get a little more curve-like action on it. He walked just eight men all spring at Stanford, three in one forgettable outing, then walked eight more in 37 innings in the minors, most of which came in AA in August. (Odd fact about Storen's walks in pro ball: Only one of the eight came with a man on base.) On stuff and control, he could make the Nationals' club this spring and be one of their better relievers, but a half-season to rip through Double-A and Triple-A wouldn't hurt his development, especially since the Nationals are still in building mode.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]93[/td][td]Grant Green[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 27, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '09 Level: A (Stockton)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Green came into the spring of 2009 as the top college position player in the draft, but was passed by Dustin Ackley after a rough spring -- especially in the field -- and the A's think that allowed them to grab a top-10 talent with the 13th pick. He's strong with good hand speed and might hit for more power if he didn't leak or let the ball travel deeper, although his swing is probably more geared to line-drive contact than big flies. He's patient and should post at least adequate OBPs, although pitchers can get him out now by changing speeds on him, an adjustment he'll have to make by AA, if not sooner. He's a bright player with a good work ethic, so he has a good chance to make some of these changes given more pro experience. The A's absolutely see him as a shortstop, but many scouts and I have questions about his arm and footwork there. I wouldn't be shocked if he moved to third base or even ended up in center field, where his speed will play up and footwork and arm issues are less problematic.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]94[/td][td]Jiovanni Mier[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 26, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Houston Astros
Top '09 Level: Rookie (Greeneville)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Mier was the top pure shortstop in the 2009 draft, which reflects his defensive and offensive promise as well as the lean crop of shortstops in last year's amateur crop. (The upcoming draft doesn't look any better in that department, so Mier's relative value seems to keep going up.) Mier has the potential to be a plus defender at short, with good hands, a plus arm, and easy transfers, but needs work on details like footwork, maintaining his arm slot and reading ground balls, all of which can come with instruction and reps in pro ball. As a hitter, he's got good plate coverage and showed solid pitch recognition in pro ball; his hands are quick and he doesn't project for much power, although he did hit seven home runs in short-season ball and may end up in the 15-20 home run range. He's an above-average runner. True shortstops who can hit are incredibly valuable at the big league level -- look at how all-glove-no-bat shortstops are getting paid in the majors right now -- and Mier has the ceiling of a top offensive producer for his position.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]95[/td][td]Jared Mitchell[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 13, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfielder[/td][td]Organization: Chicago White Sox
Top '09 Level: A (Kannapolis)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Mitchell, a part-time wide receiver at LSU when he wasn't starting in the Tigers' outfield, showed more polish than anticipated when the White Sox signed him and shoved him right into the fire of the full-season Sally League. He's a plus runner with a plus arm, and has a chance to be above-average in center. His bat speed is good, but his swing is long with a late trigger, and his pitch recognition wasn't great in college, although he generally ran deep counts. He had a sizable platoon split both in college and pro ball in 2009, although he hasn't had many reps against southpaws and might just need more experience. When he squares a ball up, it takes off, and the lack of power in his pro debut doesn't give you a sense of his future home run potential. It's not a great swing, but he's a good athlete and doesn't have the wood-bat experience of the typical college product, so he has more room for upside once he's swinging wood and facing better pitching on a regular basis, especially if the White Sox can help him make a few mechanical adjustments.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]96[/td][td]Manny Banuelos[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: March 13, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: New York Yankees
Top '09 Level: A (Tampa)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
Banuelos and Zach McAllister are both pretty close and I could have put McAllister on the list instead, but I'll roll the dice on Banuelos' age and chance for a little more velocity as he matures physically. He sits 90-92 mph right now as a starter with a solid-average changeup, and a chance for both pitches to improve to above-average in time. His curveball remains his weakest offering, soft without much depth, although he has the arm speed to throw a good breaking ball; it just may turn out to be a slider or cutter instead of a true curve. He has good feel and tremendous mound presence, which helped him survive as an 18-year-old in the full-season Sally League. He's also one of the best Mexican prospects in the minors, as the Yankees are one of the few teams to still scout Mexico aggressively for amateur talent. His ceiling is probably just a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, but given his youth and feel he's got a good chance to get there.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]97[/td][td]Miguel Sano[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 16 (DOB: May 11, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '09 Level: Fall instructional
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
Sano, whose visa reads "Miguel Jean," signed too late for anything but instructional league this year, so we'll have to wait till 2010 to see how he fares against pro pitchers -- but his hitting tools are evident. He has a natural aptitude for hitting, with good balance, bat speed and good leverage to hit for power, and as he fills out he's expected to do a lot of both. He's tall and lean now, but projects physically to end up built like Troy Glaus or Scott Rolen, two big bats at third base; Rolen spent his career as a plus defender. Sano has the arm to play anywhere on the field, but he's an average runner now and will end up below as he matures, so third base is probably the toughest position he'll be able to handle. The Twins are hoping they just landed their Miguel Cabrera, another player who signed at age 16 out of Latin America because of the promise of his bat, but we won't have any hard data on Sano until the middle of this year.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]98[/td][td]Junichi Tazawa [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: June 6, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 90[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MLB STATS[/h4]
Last year's capsule on Tazawa began: "Tazawa isn't quite big-league ready, but he's fairly close and could start in Double-A and appear in the majors by year-end." Pitching regularly in a starting rotation, Tazawa's stuff slipped a little bit in quality, with an average fastball at 89-91 mph with a little tail but no downhill plane or sink. He showed promise with two secondary pitches -- a curveball in the mid-70s with good depth and an above-average splitter around 80 mph with good bottom (although when I saw him he didn't use this pitch as much as he should have). His arm action is long, but he repeats it well and gets good momentum headed towards the plate. He'll have to develop above-average fastball command and mix in his splitter more often to be more than a fifth starter, but considering that 2009 was his first year in any level higher than a Japanese industrial league, he has more room for growth as a pitcher than the typical 23-year-old does.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]99[/td][td]Travis D'Arnaud[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher [/td][td]Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '09 Level: A (Lakewood)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]
[h4] 2009 MINORS STATS[/h4]
The Blue Jays were ready to take D'Arnaud in the 2007 draft, only to have the Phillies pick their pocket one selection ahead of them. He's moved slowly through the minors in two and a half years in the system, but after a slow start in 2009 he hit .298/.370/.470 from June 1st to the end of the year, right in line with his performance the previous season. He's an athletic catcher with arm strength who needs polish behind the plate on both his footwork and throwing mechanics. As a hitter, he has a good idea of the strike zone with good bat control; he wraps his bat very slightly but gets to the ball quickly with good rotation for average to above-average future power. He's a few years off but has promise as an offensive catcher with good defensive skills, a more complete player than the Jays' other main catching prospect, J.P. Arencibia.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]100[/td][td]Nick Hagadone[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 24 (DOB: Jan. 1, 1986)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher [/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: A (Greenville)
2009 ranking: 81[/td][td]
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Hagadone had an eventful year in 2009, coming back from Tommy John surgery only to find himself traded 25 innings into his return in the Victor Martinez deal. He has an electric arm, sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper 90s with good life, and his slider is above-average to plus. Left-handed hitters are just 12-for-71 off Hagadone in pro ball, with no extra-base hits, and he's been a strong ground-ball pitcher across his three partial seasons in the minors. He drops in the rankings from last year because the probability of him holding up as a starter seems a lot lower now than it did last year, when he was still recovering from the surgery and we could talk about best-case scenarios for the recovery. In relief, however, a lefty with two plus pitches and a usable changeup is a potentially dominant weapon in any inning because of his ability to miss left-handed bats without a major platoon split.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Jason Heyward[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 9, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: AAA (Gwinnett)
2009 ranking: 3[/td][td]
- GM99
- AB362
- HR17
- RBI63
- SB10
- SO51
- BB51
- OBP.408
- SLG.555
- AVG.323
Heyward's ascent to the top of these rankings was swift and unimpeded, and his path to the majors appears to be much the same, as he'll have a good chance to win the every-day right-field job this spring. Heyward will be a middle-of-the-order bat with power and patience while playing above-average defense in right with a plus arm. He has an advanced approach at the plate, something that was already in place when he was a 17-year-old high school senior, and strong, quick wrists that let him commit later to pitches while still driving the ball to all fields. He gets good leverage in his swing and has plenty of loft to eventually produce 30-plus homers a year, and so far hasn't shown any tendency to expand the zone because he's trying too hard to hit for power. In the field, he has outgrown center but moves extremely well in right with good reads off the bat. And you can see from all of the above that he has a high baseball IQ, with good feel and/or instincts in every area of the game, especially for someone his age. He murdered Double-A pitching at age 19 in a 200-PA sample, and his career stat line reads .318/.391/.508, nearly all of which was compiled before he turned 20 in August. His swing isn't perfect -- he does bar his front arm very briefly -- but he's so strong and has such bat speed that the minor flaw has been irrelevant at every stop of his pro career. Everything else here points to stardom. To see video of Heyward, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Stephen Strasburg[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: July 20, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '09 Level: AFL (Phoenix)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM5
- IP19.0
- W4
- L1
- ERA4.26
- SO23
- BB7
- H15
- HR3
- BAA.217
Strasburg is the best starting pitcher in the Washington organization right now, and if he's not their No. 1 starter on Opening Day 2010 (for developmental or financial reasons), he almost certainly will be that guy by midyear. Strasburg will pitch at 94-98 mph as a starter -- maybe a tick less once he's working every fifth day and making 30-34 starts a year -- and has touched 100 repeatedly in the past, usually on a full week of rest. He has good life on the fastball to his glove side, and his curveball is as hard as a typical slider, with sharp late tilt that he uses to bury the pitch down and in to left-handed batters. He has a hard changeup with a screwball-#!$ fading action, but he rarely had to use it as an amateur because -- let's face it -- not many college hitters were going to square up a 98 mph fastball with life. What sets Strasburg apart from most pitchers who can throw 100 mph, even those who do it in relief, is how easily he does it, with tremendous arm speed and a delivery that he repeats well, featuring a long stride to the plate that has helped him pick up velocity since high school. He's a solid athlete with good body control and has very little to learn from dominating minor league hitters, so any internship he has in Washington's farm system should be brief. The pitching-starved Nationals certainly could use him. To see video of Strasburg, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]Carlos Santana[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: April 8, 1986)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: AA (Akron)
2009 ranking: 13[/td][td]
- GM130
- AB428
- HR23
- RBI97
- SB2
- SO83
- BB90
- OBP.395
- SLG.486
- AVG.287
Santana could be the Victor Martinez who can actually catch -- a switch-hitter with legitimate plate discipline and power with good receiving skills and an above-average arm. Cleveland swiped Santana from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake deal because they were willing to send L.A. the $2 million required to pay Blake's salary the rest of the way; in other words, they paid roughly what the ninth or 10th pick in a typical Rule 4 draft gets and ended up with the third-best prospect in baseball, a return on investment that Indians GM Mark Shapiro probably would take eight days a week. At the plate, Santana does start his hands a little deep, but he uses that to create great leverage in his swing as he explodes from his loaded position to the ball, with both hard contact and good loft when he squares a pitch up -- something he does quite often with an approach one Cleveland executive called "selective-aggressive," meaning Santana works the count but is more than happy to jump on a pitch he can hit early in an at-bat. He's a good athlete and runs well for a backstop. Santana has good hands behind the plate and arm strength, and he has shown progress in the one deficiency in his catching, his ability to handle a staff and work with pitchers. Lou Marson might be the starting catcher this April in Cleveland, but the job should be Santana's by September. To see video of Santana, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]http://Buster Posey[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: March 27, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 8[/td][td]
- GM115
- AB497
- HR18
- RBI80
- SB6
- SO68
- BB62
- OBP.416
- SLG.531
- AVG.325
Posey reached the majors less than 14 months after signing his first pro contract on the strength of his bat and his advanced feel for catching, amazing for someone who only became a full-time catcher in 2007. Posey has a short, compact stroke with excellent bat control and sprays the field with line drives. He doesn't have much raw power on account of his size and the presence of just a little loft in his swing, but he makes up for it with good plate discipline, and he should post good on-base percentages in the majors. As a catcher, he has soft hands and good athleticism behind the dish with a plus arm, unsurprising for someone who was a part-time reliever in college. There's some concern about Posey's trouble catching better fastballs -- and Giants pitchers do bring the heat -- when he reached the majors, but it's possible that was merely exhaustion from Posey's first full pro season and rust from the fact that San Francisco brought him up only to have Bruce Bochy let him rot on the bench for three weeks. He could catch every day for the Giants right now if they weren't too busy throwing money at the likes of Bengie Molina. To see video of Posey, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]Mike Stanton[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 8, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Florida Marlins
Top '09 Level: AA (Jacksonville)
2009 ranking: 31[/td][td]
- GM129
- AB551
- HR28
- RBI92
- SB3
- SO144
- BB59
- OBP.341
- SLG.501
- AVG.255
Stanton has enormous raw power -- 80 on the 20-80 scale, which, as you might infer from the scale, is good -- but isn't the prototypical minor league slugger, with athleticism and arm strength and the ability to play right field. Stanton's profile is a mix of big positives and red flags. He has good bat speed and plate coverage, getting his arms extended on anything past middle-in. He keeps his back side up, even straightening a little on his follow-through, and uses his wrist and hand strength to drive balls most hitters would have to lunge to reach. And the ball comes off his bat extremely well -- and quickly, especially on anything over the middle of the plate that he can drive. Stanton is an average to above-average runner with long strides and covers plenty of ground in right field with a plus arm, although he needs to improve his throwing accuracy. On the down side, those long arms combined with trouble recognizing breaking balls lead to a long swing and lower contact rates, and his big raw power pushed him to Double-A before his 20th birthday, where he faced better breaking balls and struggled to hit for average. The best-case scenario has Stanton as a plus right fielder who hits 40 bombs a year and draws enough walks to keep his OBP healthy. There is, however, always a risk that even a player this young and strong can't maintain a contact rate high enough to reach that star potential. To see video of Stanton, please click here.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Oct. 30, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: AAA (Durham)
2009 ranking: 25[/td][td]
- GM132
- AB577
- HR11
- RBI62
- SB52
- SO67
- BB67
- OBP.401
- SLG.487
- AVG.318
Jennings, the No. 11 prospect here two years ago, finally had a healthy season, racking up more plate appearances in 2009 than he had in 2007 and 2008 combined. He's an impact player on both sides of the ball who could start in center field for many teams right now. Jennings has outstanding tools as a plus runner who hits, throws well and plays a plus center field, with power potential as his 6-foot-2 frame fills out. He loads his hands farther back than he did in the past, almost barring his lead arm, giving him more chance to hit for power but not in a way that has cost him any of his ability to make contact (he has struck out in just 12 percent of his PAs in full-season ball over three seasons). What sets him apart from other tooled-up players is his feel for the game, which shows up everywhere he plays -- at the plate, where he has advanced pitch recognition and patience; on the bases; and in the field, where he reads balls well off the bat. The back and shoulder problems that plagued him before 2009 appear to be behind him, and he's in line to fill an outfield spot in Tampa this year when there's an injury or if the Rays' three-headed monster in right field doesn't pan out.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]Martin Perez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: April 4, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '09 Level: AA (Frisco)
2009 ranking: 37[/td][td]
- GM27
- IP114.2
- W6
- L8
- ERA2.90
- SO119
- BB38
- H111
- HR5
- BAA.254
Perez is already the best left-handed prospect in baseball even though he probably would still be finishing high school if he had been born in the United States. At this time last year, he was a projectable lefty with good command of an average fastball and a plus curveball with good depth, but his velocity ticked upward this past season to where he's now sitting 91-94 mph and flashes better at times. Perez's changeup also made huge strides this season, giving him two plus secondary pitches, something few prospects can match -- and Perez is already there before reaching his 19th birthday. His delivery works well, with a big stride toward the plate, early pronation, good arm acceleration, and very good deception between the way he keeps his arm behind his body and that acceleration. He earns comparisons to Johan Santana because he's left-handed, has a good changeup and is Venezuelan. The Johan comparison works on a more important level -- Perez projects to be one of the best left-handed starters in the majors when he arrives, perhaps as soon as this September.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]Dustin Ackley[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 26, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Center field[/td][td]Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '09 Level: AFL (Peoria)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM20
- AB73
- HR1
- RBI12
- SB1
- SO19
- BB12
- OBP.414
- SLG.425
- AVG.315
Ackley, the second overall pick in 2009 and top position player taken, is an advanced hitter who should be a plus center fielder once his arm recovers fully from 2008 Tommy John surgery. Ackley primarily played first base for North Carolina last spring but had one of the best swings in the country -- short to the ball with some leverage and good extension, although he can lunge a little and meet the ball too far out front. He's a plus-plus runner who should be able to handle center, but the arm still wasn't 100 percent in the Arizona Fall League, and there's a non-zero chance that he'll never regain the arm strength to return to his old position. The Mariners have messed around with Ackley at second base, which would potentially make him more valuable but also introduces the greater injury risk faced by second basemen, as well as the overall developmental risk that the time he devotes to improving his glove could detract in some way from his development with the bat. Wherever he plays, he's going to hit for average and get on base with above-average power when he finishes filling out.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Justin Smoak[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 5, 1986)
Bats: Both Throws: Left
Position: First base[/td][td]Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '09 Level: AAA (Okla. City)
2009 ranking: 15[/td][td]
- GM106
- AB386
- HR12
- RBI57
- SB0
- SO81
- BB75
- OBP.410
- SLG.443
- AVG.290
Smoak's march to the majors last season hit a rough patch when he strained his left oblique, causing him trouble when he reached Triple-A and (giving him difficulty against left-handed pitching) for the rest of the year. His upside, however, remains untarnished, as he remains an impact bat from both sides of the plate with a plus glove at first base. Smoak is a very disciplined hitter with similar swings from the left and right sides, centering the ball extremely well and showing power to pull and to the opposite field. His path to the ball is short, and he generates a lot of bat speed from the set position. His only negative as a player is that he's a 20 runner, limiting him to first base, although he's agile and instinctive enough there that his glove should be an asset from the time he reaches the majors. Smoak is somewhat blocked right now by Chris Davis, who recovered from a horrendous first half in 2009 to restore some of his value, but Smoak is the superior player and Davis shouldn't be a long-term obstacle.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Jesus Montero[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: New York Yankees
Top '09 Level: AA (Trenton)
2009 ranking: 83[/td][td]
- GM92
- AB347
- HR17
- RBI70
- SB0
- SO47
- BB28
- OBP.389
- SLG.562
- AVG.337
Montero is really a "CINO" (catcher in name only), as few people outside the Yankees organization believe the giant player -- listed at 6-4, 225 pounds, although he's bigger than that now -- can stay behind the plate, even with the improvement in his throwing in 2009. Montero's ticket to the big leagues is his bat, and his hitting style is similar to that of another big guy who spent a lot of his career at DH: Frank Thomas. Montero transfers his weight early and hits off his front foot, but he generates tremendous bat speed and is so strong that he hits and hits for power regardless of the fact that he's on that lead foot. Behind the plate, he has arm strength and has improved his accuracy, but he's so big that he doesn't move quickly enough to catch in the big leagues, and his receiving has never been a strength. His bat is so far ahead of his glove anyway that it might end up making sense for the Yankees to employ him as a major league DH soon rather than wait for him to develop as a catcher, knowing that there's a good chance the latter won't happen.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]11[/td][td]http://Brian Matusz[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 11, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 28[/td][td]
- GM85
- IP44.2
- W5
- L2
- ERA4.63
- SO38
- BB14
- H52
- HR6
- BAA.292
Matusz barely qualifies for this list, falling just 5.1 innings short of the 50-inning cutoff (teammate Chris Tillman is over the line and thus no longer a rookie in 2010), but the added experience might give him a leg up on the AL Rookie of the Year race in 2010. Matusz is a true four-pitch pitcher, but unlike most pitchers of that breed, all four of his pitches project as above-average or better. Matusz sits in the low 90s and will touch 94 with his fastball, although its lack of movement limits its potential as an out pitch and I expect Matusz to end up using his fastball less often than a standard pitcher with that velocity. His best secondary pitch is an 11-5 curveball with tight rotation and good depth, and he has excellent arm speed on his lively changeup. His command has improved steadily since his sophomore year in college, and -- as predicted here last year -- he raced through the minors on the strength of his off-speed pitches. He's not the prototypical No. 1 starter with a big fastball and an easy delivery, but his ability to miss left- and right-handed bats in different ways gives him a chance to lead a staff, regardless.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]12[/td][td]Starlin Castro[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: March 24, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '09 Level: AA (Tennessee)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM127
- AB469
- HR3
- RBI49
- SB28
- SO53
- BB29
- OBP.342
- SLG.392
- AVG.299
Castro is one of the most exciting position player prospects in the minors as a quick-twitch player with an electric bat and a hose for an arm at shortstop. As a hitter, Castro has lightning in his wrists and the ball absolutely flies off his bat. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and adjusts well when pitchers try to come in on him, keeping his hands inside the ball and squaring up pitches many hitters would foul off. His swing can get long when pitchers work him away, but he still makes a lot more contact than most hitters do, courtesy of his bat speed and hand-eye. He recognizes breaking balls well for his age and projects to hit for power even to the opposite field. As a shortstop, he's quick on his feet with good range in both ways, especially to the hole, but it is his arm that really stands out, grading at 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale. The Cubs have pushed him up the ladder aggressively because he can make contact and needed reps against better pitching, but it has obscured his power potential because he's been so young for his leagues. He's going to be an impact bat in the middle of the diamond and could arrive as early as late 2010.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]13[/td][td]http://Neftali Feliz[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: May 2, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 4[/td][td]
- GM20
- IP31.0
- W1
- L0
- ERA1.74
- SO39
- BB8
- H13
- HR2
- BAA.124
The only real question remaining on Feliz's potential as a big leaguer is whether he can start. In his favor, he has easy plus velocity, sitting 92-97 mph as a starter and 94-98 in relief, without much effort in his delivery and enough deception that hitters, especially right-handed hitters, don't see his fastball well at all. (Right-handed hitters were 4-for-47 against him in the majors in 2009, with no extra-base hits.) His best off-speed pitch is a changeup that he turns over well and that has good fade to it, so despite a low arm slot, he hasn't shown a major platoon split. Working against him as a starter is the lack of a clear average breaking ball; he has toyed with a slider and a curveball, throwing more curves in 2009 although his arm really sits in a slot better suited to sliders. He also missed some time with a sore shoulder in the first half of 2009, after which the Rangers put him in the 'pen and eventually called him up for that role. I'd give him a chance to start while recognizing all along that his future could very well be in the 'pen, where I would expect him to be dominant.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]14[/td][td]Domonic Brown[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 3, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Right field[/td][td]Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '09 Level: AA (Reading)
2009 ranking: 84 [/td][td]
- GM106
- AB395
- HR14
- RBI64
- SB23
- SO86
- BB49
- OBP.377
- SLG.504
- AVG.299
It's common in scouting circles to refer to an extremely athletic player as "a freak," but in Brown's case, his freakishness isn't limited to his incredible athleticism but includes how well he has played in pro ball despite still being fairly crude as a baseball player. He's long and wiry, listed as an inch taller than Heyward but 15 pounds lighter, built like a young, lean Dave Winfield. As raw as Brown is, he does two things like a longtime veteran: He has a good swing path that should produce significant power as he fills out, and if he can keep his weight back a little better -- he leaks slightly to his front side now -- he has 30-plus homer potential. His biggest deficiency is in the outfield, where his reads are poor and he doesn't set his feet to throw, but he has the speed and arm strength to become plus at the position and already runs down many balls he misreads. So on the one hand, Brown's game still needs a lot of refinement. On the other, if he does continue to develop, the sky is the limit; he could become a player who contributes in all areas offensively while providing plus defense in right and even adding something on the bases.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]15[/td][td]Wade Davis[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 24 (DOB: Sept. 7, 1985)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 33[/td][td]
- GM6
- IP36.1
- W2
- L2
- ERA3.72
- SO36
- BB13
- H33
- HR2
- BAA.243
Davis is a big, strong right-hander with two plus pitches and a chance to have four offerings all average or better in a build that should support 200-plus innings a year. Davis sits at 93-95 with his four-seamer, mixing in a two-seamer from 90-92 with hard tail -- and he usually will throw the fastball inside to hitters on both sides of the plate to keep them honest. His curveball, 79-82 mph, is a hard two-planer with depth, and he's confident enough in it to use it in nontraditional counts; he also throws a hard slider in the mid-80s that has hard tilt but finishes out of the zone and can be a little sloppy. He does throw a fringy changeup that plays up because he picks his spots with it. Davis' main area for improvement is in fastball command, as he has good feel for pitching and commands the curve better than he does the heater. In a perfect world, he's a borderline No. 1 starter because of the velocity and potential for multiple out pitches, with a strong likelihood that he'll settle in just below that and soak up substantial innings with above-average performance.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]16[/td][td]Aroldis Chapman[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 28, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: Cuba/WBC
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM22
- IP118.0
- W11
- L4
- ERA4.03
- SO130
- BB62
- H109
- HR7
- BAA.252
Chapman's surprise decision to sign with Cincinnati gives the Reds an impressive stable of young arms who could form a contender's rotation by 2012 or 2013, with Chapman possibly at the head. He projects comfortably as an ace with a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and has legitimately hit 101 with good life, and he will flash a plus slider with good tilt. He has a changeup but seldom had to use it because he could get hitters out with velocity and fastball movement. He's also a good athlete whose velocity comes easily from a loose arm, and, with age and physical maturity, should be able to handle workloads of 180-200 innings. As well as Chapman projects in pro ball, that projection is based entirely on a small number of scouting looks that MLB evaluators have had, as he has pitched a handful of times in international competitions and threw once for scouts in Houston not long before signing with the Reds. It's not clear how much he'll be able to throw in 2010 or what kind of command he'll have when facing high-quality lineups in the United States. He's very likely to become a No. 1 starter, but there's enough risk here -- including the possibility he'll end up in relief -- to keep him out of the top 10.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]17[/td][td]Jeremy Hellickson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: April 8, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: AAA (Durham)
2009 ranking: 47 [/td][td]
- GM20
- IP114.0
- W9
- L2
- ERA2.45
- SO132
- BB29
- H72
- HR8
- BAA.178
Hellickson's a different animal from his future Tampa rotation-mate Wade Davis, but they're quite close in overall quality. Hellickson has less pure power than Davis, but a better changeup and his own plus curveball to give him multiple weapons to get big league hitters out. Hellickson's fastball is solid-average at 90-94, and he'll cut it to set it off from his four-seamer (which tends to be a little true). His changeup is a real plus pitch for him as he has improved his feel for it dramatically in the past two years, and he has great feel for his breaking ball -- with the ability to elevate it or bounce it or throw it for strikes as needed. Hellickson's control has always been excellent and he has plus fastball command, but the combination of average velocity and lack of movement do limit his ceiling somewhat to that of a No. 2 starter -- not that that is anything to be ashamed of, and it's probably more than the Rays could have hoped for when they signed him away from LSU for $500,000.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]18[/td][td]Casey Kelly[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 4, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: A (Salem)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM17
- IP95.0
- W7
- L5
- ERA2.08
- SO74
- BB16
- H65
- HR4
- HR.190
Note the absence of "SS" from his position -- although Kelly was a good defensive shortstop, he was raw enough at the plate that it didn't make sense for him to continue to hit when he's so polished on the mound and could knock on the big league door in 2010 or 2011 as a pitcher. Kelly's defining attribute as a pitcher is his command, which was unusually good for a high school pitcher (in Sarasota, Fla.) and hasn't regressed at all since he got into pro ball. He has a chance for three average or better pitches, with a solid-average fastball already, a curveball that frequently flashes plus with good depth and tight rotation, and an above-average changeup with good arm speed and some fade. As you might expect from a former middle infielder, Kelly is a great athlete who fields his position well and repeats his delivery, contributing to that above-average command. He probably will add a little velocity as he goes, but his ability to locate his fastball and chance for two above-average to plus secondary pitches make him a top-flight pitching prospect even without the big fastball.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]19[/td][td]Aaron Hicks [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Center field[/td][td]Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '09 Level: A (Beloit)
2009 ranking: 56[/td][td]
- GM67
- AB251
- HR4
- RBI29
- SB10
- SO55
- BB40
- OBP.353
- SLG.382
- AVG.251
Hicks remains one of the premium tools prospects in the game, with a ways to go to convert those tools into baseball skills -- but he has shown glimmers of polish that give hope of a major step forward in the next year or two. A two-way star in high school, Hicks has an 80 arm if he ends up in right field but has the speed to handle center with work on his reads. At the plate, he's a true switch-hitter with great wrist acceleration; he loads his hands deep but gets great leverage in his swing, and he should be a plus-power guy when he fills out and gets more reps against higher-quality pitching. For the second year in a row, Hicks showed a strong walk rate, and he did so this time while playing in a full-season league at 19. Hicks' ceiling is one of the highest of any player in the low minors, but he needs to play a full season outside of extended spring training to show us just how far along he is.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]20[/td][td]Brett Wallace[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Aug. 26, 1986)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 3B/1B[/td][td]Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '09 Level: AAA (Sacramento)
2009 ranking: 19 [/td][td]
- GM138
- AB532
- HR20
- RBI63
- SB1
- SO116
- BB47
- OBP.367
- SLG.455
- AVG.293
Wallace has been traded twice in the 19 months since he was drafted, testament in part to how much teams like his bat but also to questions about his defensive limitations. A full year in pro ball has made it clear that he's unlikely to improve enough at third base to play it in the majors -- or at least for any team to be willing to accept the trade-off of below-average defense for more offense at the position -- and he's now with a team that views him as its long-term first baseman. Wallace has one of the best swings of any minor league hitter, with good hip rotation and loft to go with an excellent eye (one that has led him to hit left-handed pitchers at a .357/.441/.476 clip in his pro career. (For some idea of how good that is, left-handed hitters in the majors in 2009 hit .247/.317/.386 against left-handed pitchers, the worst OPS of any of the four L/R matchup possibilities.) Wallace has an unusual shape, with wide thighs that limit his lateral agility and have the Blue Jays planning to use him only at first base, although he's a fringe-average to average runner and shouldn't have any trouble handling that position. Wallace is going to hit for average and get on base at a high clip while providing average to above-average power, a combination that will have value at any position, and he's ready to step into a major league role right away.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]21[/td][td]Logan Morrison [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 25, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 1B/LF[/td][td]Organization: Florida Marlins
Top '09 Level: AA (Jacksonville)
2009 ranking: 23[/td][td]
- GM82
- AB289
- HR8
- RBI49
- SB9
- SO48
- BB64
- OBP.408
- SLG.439
- AVG.277
Morrison broke his wrist early in the year, and it sapped his power for the rest of the season -- full power often doesn't return for an entire year after a broken wrist or hamate bone -- but he compensated with a massive uptick in his patience, posting a .411 OBP that was fifth-best in his league among players with at least 300 PAs. Morrison is extremely strong with plus raw power when his wrist is healthy; he has great hip rotation and can drive a ball even if he doesn't square it up perfectly. He did a better job this year of keeping his weight back. He's a capable defensive first baseman but can't play anywhere else. If he has recovered fully from the fracture, don't be surprised if he ends up in the big leagues this year, or shows up in the top 10 on this list next offseason.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]22[/td][td]Tyler Matzek[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 19, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '09 Level: Fall instructional
2009 ranking: IE [/td][td]
Matzek was the best high school prospect in the 2009 draft, a left-handed pitcher with a four-pitch mix, a good delivery and unusual polish for a teenage hurler. Matzek sat 90-93 much of the spring in 2009 but hit 97-98 in multiple outings close to the draft to firmly establish himself as the premium prep arm. He throws a slider, curve and changeup -- with the slider his best off-speed pitch and the curve the least developed. His slider has a short, hard break down and away from left-handed hitters; the curve has good depth and a little angle, but it's less consistent and he has more feel for the slider. He has good arm speed on an average changeup and gets some fade on the pitch. He has a good workhorse's frame with some room to fill out, and his arm works well in a "drive-and-drop" delivery where he gets on top of the ball to get some downhill plane. What sets Matzek apart from most other pitching prospects is his demeanor -- he's aggressive and polished, yet understands the need to pace himself for 100-plus pitches, dialing it up and down as the situation demands. Colorado got a steal when he fell out of the top 10 picks, and he has a chance to move up relatively quickly despite his youth.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]23[/td][td]Jenrry Mejia[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 11, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: New York Mets
Top '09 Level: AA (Binghamton)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM19
- IP94.2
- W4
- L6
- ERA3.14
- SO91
- BB39
- H85
- HR2
- BAA.239
Mejia entered 2009 with no experience above short-season leagues, but finished it in Double-A despite missing time in the middle of the year with a strained finger on his pitching hand. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff, but is just 20 with the command you'd expect to see in a live-armed teenager with barely 200 innings in pro ball. His fastball sits at 93-96 and will tick higher, and the ball sometimes shows natural cutting action toward left-handed hitters. His changeup is his best off-speed pitch and, at 85-87 mph with good tail, looks like a soft two-seamer. His curveball is very inconsistent, but at its best, it's plus with good two-plane break and depth in the upper 70s. He's thick but not tall, and his slot is just below 3/4 -- so he has to work on staying on top of the ball, and the finger injury reduced his already below-average command. That said, he's 20 and has shown he can get advanced hitters in Double-A out. If the Mets slow him down a little and let him spend all of 2010 (and maybe some of 2011) in the minors to improve his command and the consistency of his changeup and curve, they have a chance for a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]24[/td][td]Michael Taylor[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 24 (DOB: Dec. 19, 1985 )
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '09 Level: AAA (Lehigh Valley)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM116
- AB428
- HR20
- RBI84
- SB21
- SO70
- BB48
- OBP.395
- SLG.549
- AVG.320
Taylor stands out in a crowd -- at 6-6, 250 pounds, he's one of the biggest position players on this list. It's a strong 250 (as opposed to a fat 250), and now that he has gotten away from Stanford's hitting coaches, his athleticism is matched by his offensive performance. One consistent criticism from scouts who've seen Taylor is that although his size points to future power, his swing plane is somewhat flat; he's likely to hit for a high average but not to reach the 30-homer power someone as big as he is would be expected to show. It's a legitimate point, but at the same time, a good corner outfielder who hits .300-plus with lots of walks and doubles and 15-20 homers is an above-average player and not far below star caliber. Taylor was traded straight up for Brett Wallace in one of the aftershocks of the Roy Halladay trade, and I have Wallace slightly ahead of Taylor here, but Taylor's advantage over Wallace -- and they're going to be compared to each other for years, even if each player reaches his potential in the majors -- is that he can affect the game on both sides of the ball as a good athlete who should be worth five or more runs a year in the field.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]25[/td][td]Zach Britton[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 22, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '09 Level: A (Frederick)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM25
- IP140.0
- W9
- L6
- ERA2.70
- SO131
- BB55
- H123
- HR6
- BAA.232
Britton is a true sinker/slider pitcher with enough velocity to work as a starter and a potential out pitch in the slider to miss bats when he's not getting ground balls. His sinker has solid-average velocity with legitimate plus sink, and he'll flash a four-seamer up to 94. His slider -- although not as consistent -- flashes plus, and he's willing and able to backfoot it to right-handed hitters, then throwing the sinker away to get a weak grounder or just a swing and miss. His changeup improved over the course of the season to the point that it's an average pitch or better, eliminating a major concern for sinker/slider guys -- a typical weakness against opposite-side hitters. Britton's arm works well with high hand separation and a short arm path, and he's a good athlete with some room to fill out up top. His control remains below-average and his command of all pitches and feel for the slider need to improve, as well, but he would slot in very nicely as a No. 2 starter behind Brian Matusz, or as an outstanding No. 3 behind Matusz and Chris Tillman.
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[table][tr][td]26[/td][td]Lonnie Chisenhall [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 4, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: AA (Akron)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM123
- AB481
- HR22
- RBI92
- SB3
- SO96
- BB44
- OBP.325
- SLG.472
- AVG.258
Chisenhall has one of the best swings in the minors, a classic left-hander's swing with good hip rotation and raw power to right and right-center, which was already on display in the 22 home runs he hit between high-A and Double-A in 2009. He played the entire year at the age of 20 and showed the ability to make contact and control the bat in and around the zone, while his walk rate, through not great, was adequate and also reflected the ease with which he makes contact. A miscast shortstop in college, Chisenhall has settled in at third base and made his body leaner, giving him a good chance to stay at the position and even end up a little above-average there. Chisenhall's history, for those who don't know it, includes expulsion from South Carolina for his involvement in a burglary, for which he pleaded guilty and received probation, but he's kept his nose clean since signing with Cleveland and looks like he'll move up the ladder quickly.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]27[/td][td]Jaff Decker [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '09 Level: A (Fort Wayne)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM104
- AB358
- HR16
- RBI64
- SB10
- SO92
- BB85
- OBP.442
- SLG.514
- AVG.299
Decker was a two-way star in high school -- I caught him on a day he threw a no-hitter and, unsurprisingly, drew four walks -- but doesn't seem to get a lot of credit for having any athleticism because he has what is now known as the "Brian Giles Body," formerly known as the "Matt Stairs Body." Decker's approach at the plate rivals that of most big leaguers; he's not just patient, but he's selective, and rarely swings at balls out of the zone. (Just for kicks: Decker has drawn 136 unintentional walks in a year and a half in pro ball; Josh Vitters, with an additional year in the minors, has drawn 26.) Decker's swing is short but hard, and he has big pull power with some power to the opposite field as well. He's got a plus arm, so he can handle right or left field. A .400 OBP with some pop from an outfield corner is a well-above-average player, and not far off from stardom if Decker can add more power than currently projected.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]28[/td][td]Madison Bumgarner[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 1, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 6 [/td][td]
- GM25
- IP131.1
- W12
- L2
- ERA1.85
- SO92
- BB34
- H100
- HR6
- BAA.211
Bumgarner took a big tumble this year when his velocity gradually declined the deeper he went into the season. It's possible the velocity drop was just a function of a very young pitcher (he didn't turn 20 until Aug. 1) who wore down over the course of a long year, but it's also possible that this is where he's going to pitch long-term if he works as a starter. Bumgarner throws from a low arm slot -- well below 3/4 -- and has had some trouble against right-handed hitters since they see the ball very well out of his hand, although the slot gives him good tailing life on his fastball. He throws a slider and changeup and both will flash average or better, but neither was very consistent in 2009, with the slider sometimes showing good tilt but other times going soft on him, allowing hitters to pick up the break earlier. He was 88-93 mph early in the season but just 87-90 by midsummer, and the velocity on his slider and changeup dipped as well. He's a big kid who has started to fill out and could add more to his 6-foot-4 frame, but the loss of velocity this year and his related difficulty in missing bats raise serious questions about how high his ceiling really is.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]29[/td][td]Tim Beckham[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 27, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: A (Bowling Green)
2009 ranking: 11[/td][td]
- GM125
- BA.275
- HR5
- RBI63
- H135
- OBP.328
- SLG.389
- OPS.717
- BB34
- SO116
Beckham's first full year was a disappointment, although he played the entire season at 19 in the Sally League and showed that when he made contact, it was of the hard variety. Beckham, the first overall pick in 2008, is a very good athlete with an outstanding work ethic, but his body got away from him a little in 2009, especially in his lower half, which started to get thicker and slower, reducing his chances to stay at shortstop. To his credit he lost some of that weight in the first half of the offseason. At this point, it's more likely that he'll have to move off the position -- he has the hands and arms, but if you're outgrowing the position at 19, you're probably going to outgrow it no matter what you do -- but his bat still has the promise to play at other positions on the field. At the plate, he wraps his bat slightly and loads a little deep, but he has quick wrists and can catch up to better fastballs. He'll have to work on pitch recognition while also maintaining his conditioning in 2010 to re-establish himself as an elite prospect, but he has the makeup and the natural ability.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]30[/td][td]Josh Vitters[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 27, 1989 )
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '09 Level: A (Daytona)
2009 ranking: 14[/td][td]
- GM199
- AB782
- HR23
- RBI109
- SB8
- SO129
- BB28
- OBP.319
- SLG.448
- AVG.286
Vitters has everything he needs to become an impact hitter at the major league level -- except patience. And patience he lacks in the way the Sahara lacks water: He drew 12 unassisted walks in 2009, and has drawn 26 in total in 830 pro plate appearances. He's not a hacker; he's had strong contact rates at every level where he's played so far, and his swing is superb -- with a strong front side, good hand speed and excellent hip rotation to generate hard contact and power. He projects, based on his swing and ability to make contact all over the zone, as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power; but with a .320 on-base percentage, which may make you a Hall of Famer to the statistically ignorant, but means Vitters will produce a lot of outs in between those big hits. In the field, he's never going to be plus at third base but is playable there with plenty of arm. It's hard to teach Vitters' ability to make contact, and he may fit the cliché about the hitter who's so good at making contact that he never has to get to ball four, but in today's game you have to get on base to be an impact bat at a corner, and Vitters will have to dramatically increase his walk rate as he moves up the ladder to be that kind of player.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]31[/td][td]Derek Norris[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Feb. 14, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '09 Level: A (Hagerstown)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM126
- BA.286
- HR23
- RBI84
- H125
- OBP.413
- SLG.513
- OPS.926
- BB90
- SO116
Norris is an offensive catcher whose defense is the subject of major debate among pro scouts. He does have arm strength, but his receiving and footwork are considered shaky; he's a good height (6-0) and hasn't outgrown the position yet, but he's thickly built. Adding much more weight could cost him his ability to stay behind the plate. If he does remain a catcher, he has superstar potential and could end up in the top 15-20 prospects next fall because he has an advanced approach at the plate (finishing 15th in walks in the minors last year) and already hits for power -- his 2009 was more impressive than it seems at first glance: He wore down in his first full pro season and hit just .174/.405/.233 after July. Norris missed the Arizona Fall League after breaking his hamate bone, an injury that lacks long-term consequences but usually saps a hitter's power for up to a year after the surgery, so it's not a crisis if his power dips in 2010.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]32[/td][td]Ryan Westmoreland [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: April 27, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: A (Lowell)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM60
- AB223
- HR7
- RBI35
- SB19
- SO49
- BB38
- OBP.401
- SLG.484
- AVG.296
Westmoreland was one of the top prep players available in the 2008 Rule 4 draft, but was widely considered unsignable due to his strong commitment to Vanderbilt. (Imagine how much more stacked Vanderbilt's 2011 draft class -- which still features potential first-rounders Sonny Gray, Jack Armstrong and Jason Esposito -- would be with Westmoreland in it.) The Red Sox signed Westmoreland for $2 million, but he had hurt the labrum in his throwing shoulder and ended up having offseason surgery between 2008 and 2009, limiting him to DH duty for most of last summer. He was still recovering from the original injury, playing left field rather than center when he picked up a glove again, only to break his collarbone slamming into the outfield wall while catching a fly ball, further holding back his development. Westmoreland is a top-10 talent with his combination of athleticism, power potential and feel for hitting, and he showed very advanced plate discipline in his limited season in Lowell last year while going a remarkable 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts. The combination of catastrophic injuries does raise the specter of Chris Snelling Disease, in which a prospect is so prone to injury that he can't develop properly as a hitter. But with a full season in 2010, Westmoreland could largely put those concerns to rest.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]33[/td][td]Chris Carter [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 18, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: First Base/DH[/td][td]Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '09 Level: AAA (Sacramento)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM138
- AB544
- HR28
- RBI115
- SB13
- SO133
- BB85
- OBP.422
- SLG.570
- AVG.329
Carter has made impressive strides since his arrival in the Oakland organization as a power-or-nothing hitter with a long swing and no defensive value, and while he's still probably a solid DH with thump, he has a chance to contribute in a few different ways. He made a concerted effort to improve his walks without increasing his strikeouts, becoming more selective while cutting down on his normal swing as part of the process. If he gets a pitch to drive, he'll load his hands a little deeper to give him more leverage and bring his plus power back out of storage. Carter is limited defensively and will probably max out as a fringe-average first baseman, although the positional logjam in Oakland may make him a DH by default. Even in Oakland's ballpark he should be good for 30 homers a year and a solid on-base percentage by his peak.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]34[/td][td]Eric Hosmer [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 24, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base[/td][td]Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '09 Level: A (Wilmington)
2009 ranking: 17[/td][td]
- GM106
- AB377
- HR6
- RBI59
- SB3
- SO90
- BB53
- OBP.334
- SLG.361
- AVG.241
Hosmer's first pro season was something of a disappointment, but he had a couple of valid reasons for his performance. One was his widely publicized astigmatism, resolved by late-summer laser surgery that he says made a huge difference in his vision. The other was a hairline fracture in one of the fingers on his glove hand, sustained while diving to field a ball; the finger swelled up enough to affect his ability to grip the bat and drive the ball in games. When healthy and seeing the ball, Hosmer is an elite hitting prospect with quick wrists, a good feel for the strike zone and well-above-average raw power. He's a good athlete with a plus arm, and if the Royals choose not to try him in right field, he'll be a plus defender at first base. The Royals pushed him to Wilmington, a pitchers' park at a level for which he really wasn't ready, but a half-season or perhaps a full season there with his new eyes should get him back on track to stardom.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]35[/td][td]Pedro Alvarez [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 6, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '09 Level: AA (Altoona)
2009 ranking: 38[/td][td]
- GM126
- AB465
- HR27
- RBI95
- SB2
- SO129
- BB71
- OBP.378
- SLG.535
- AVG.288
Alvarez got off to a horrendous start to his pro career in 2009, only to pick up his performance after a surprising promotion to Double-A, where he went on a two-month tear boosted by a .438 BABIP in July and August. Alvarez has big power: He's a strong guy with a swing geared to drive the ball in the air, giving him 65 or 70 raw power that will get him to the big leagues regardless of other holes in his game. He still has problems against left-handed pitchers -- he hit .267/.320/.394 against them in 2009, and struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances against them in Double-A -- because he doesn't see the ball out of a southpaw's hand anywhere near as well as he sees it out of a righty's. He's also still below-average at third base and likely to outgrow the position as he gets older, as his lower half is thick and he doesn't have the quickness the position requires. Those two flaws keep him out of the class of all-bat prospects like Jesus Montero or better defensive contributors like Justin Smoak, but he remains the premium prospect in Pittsburgh's system and should be in the middle of their order by 2011.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]36[/td][td]Christian Friedrich [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: July 8, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '09 Level: A (Modesto)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM22
- IP119.2
- W6
- L5
- ERA2.41
- SO159
- BB43
- H94
- HR5
- BAA.215
Colorado played it very conservatively with Friedrich, a former Division I starter with advanced off-speed pitches, and, as you might have predicted, he ripped through low-A and had no trouble with the California League, a hitter-friendly circuit that doesn't see many pitchers like this because of teams' fears that the environment will ****** their development. Friedrich has four pitches and misses bats with both his tight, almost-12-to-6 curveball and his cutter, while his fastball sits in the low 90s and his changeup is nearly an average pitch. He's tall and gets on top of the ball well, but doesn't look like he's going to add much velocity. Friedrich's arm works well, but his path is long and he has to work to keep his pitching elbow down when his arm is behind his body. He's fully recovered from the inflamed elbow that cost him a half-dozen starts in the middle of 2009, and he has a chance to reach the majors by the end of the year if he stays healthy, with the upside of a No. 3 or even a fringe No. 2 starter.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]37[/td][td]Jarrod Parker [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 24, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Arizona D-Backs
Top '09 Level: AA (Mobile)
2009 ranking: 35[/td][td]
- GM20
- IP97.1
- W5
- L6
- ERA3.14
- SO95
- BB38
- H94
- HR2
- BAA.255
Parker will be out for most of 2010 after snapping his elbow in mid-2009, eventually undergoing "the zipper" (a nickname for Tommy John surgery based on the shape of the resulting scar); he should be back on a mound for Arizona's instructional league in September, although it's conceivable he'd be back a few weeks before that. To his credit, he's used the time off to work on his conditioning and get stronger without losing athleticism, all of which should help him remain a starter once he returns from rehab. Prior to blowing out his elbow, Parker was his usual 92-97 mph and even touched 99 in his last outing, and he had made more progress with his changeup after deliberately working on it more in games, to the point where on his best days he could show four above-average or plus pitches. His fastball doesn't have great life and he'll probably be a little fly-ball-oriented, but whether it was a small sample issue or the result of mixing his pitches better, he got ground balls on 55 percent of the balls he allowed in play before he got hurt. Once rebuilt -- and there is the technology -- he should resume his march to the top of a big league rotation after another full year or two in the minors.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]38[/td][td]Shelby Miller [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '09 Level: A (Quad Cities)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM2
- IP3.0
- W0
- L0
- ERA6.00
- SO2
- BB2
- H5
- HR0
- BAA.357
Miller was the best prep right-hander in last year's draft class but fell to the Cardinals at the 19th pick due to suspected bonus demands, which turned out to be reasonable for his level of talent. He's a very high-upside pitcher who projects to have two plus pitches between his 92-96 mph fastball that has flashed a little better and a 76-78 mph curveball with good depth. He seldom used his changeup in high school but started showing it more in Quad Cities, where it showed promise as at least a future average pitch. At 6-foot-3, he gets good downhill plane on his pitches and has the height and frame of a front-end starter. His command is well-below-average right now and may have contributed to his slide to St. Louis in the draft, but his arm works well with a high hand separation and short path, and he repeats his delivery. He's not likely to race up the system, but has top-of-the-rotation upside that no one in the Cardinals' system can match.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]39[/td][td]Dee Gordon[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: April 22, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '09 Level: A (Great Lakes)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM131
- AB538
- HR3
- RBI35
- SB73
- SO90
- BB43
- OBP.362
- SLG.394
- AVG.301
Gordon, son of longtime big leaguer Tom "Flash" Gordon, fell to the fourth round in the 2008 draft because of academic and discipline issues that made it hard for scouts to see him. But at this point the Dodgers appear to have out-scouted the industry, given how pro scouts are reacting to Gordon's play. Two evaluators independently told me they think he's Jimmy Rollins with less power. Gordon is listed, perhaps generously, at 5-foot-11, and is as thin as a rake despite efforts to put on weight, but he's wiry-strong and has shown he can hit line drives deep to both gaps. So while he may never hit 20 homers in the majors, he should produce plenty of extra-base power. He is a plus-plus runner with an above-average arm and has the athleticism and quickness to play shortstop in the big leagues. Gordon's feel for the game is poor, especially for the son of a big leaguer, but he was primarily a basketball player until his senior year in high school. The inexperience shows in all facets of his game, from pitch recognition to high caught-stealing rates. His upside is substantial, but he's more like a 19-year-old player in a 22-year-old body; he has to develop at a faster pace than a typical tools prospect to reach that Rollins-like potential.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]40[/td][td]Kyle Drabek [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 8, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '09 Level: AA (Reading)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM25
- IP158.0
- W12
- L3
- ERA3.19
- SO150
- BB50
- H141
- HR9
- BAA.239
Drabek missed most of 2007 and 2008 due to Tommy John surgery, but he had a strong return in 2009, dominating the Florida State League and holding his own as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He has a chance to throw two above-average pitches, with a curveball that's currently plus, 79-80 mph with a hard tilt that approaches a slider break, and a fastball that's comfortably 90-93 mph, although it's flat and he could benefit from mixing in a cutter or two-seamer so hitters don't just sit on the four-seamer. He throws a changeup, but it's not effective enough against left-handed hitters to grade as average. He's shown he can throw strikes, but doesn't command the ball well to his glove side yet, although command is the last thing to return for pitchers who've had Tommy John surgery and Drabek has thrown only 267 innings in pro ball. He's got some head violence at the end of his delivery, which could point to a future in the pen, although for now he should continue to start and will have the benefit of working with a new player development staff on his stuff and mechanics. With some cleanup and a third pitch, he has a chance to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]41[/td][td]Wilmer Flores[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: Aug. 6, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: New York Mets
Top '09 Level: A (Savannah)
2009 ranking: 55[/td][td]
- GM125
- AB488
- HR3
- RBI36
- SB3
- SO72
- BB22
- OBP.305
- SLG.332
- AVG.264
Flores, as predicted, broke with a full-season club in 2009 and held his own despite playing most of the year at 17. He has very quick wrists and is short to the ball with good finish. The ball flies off his bat, especially in BP, in which he shows the promise of future plus power, and in games he has already shown that he can square balls up against pitchers two or three years his senior. In fact, of players with at least 400 at-bats in the Sally League in 2009, only one hitter had fewer strikeouts than Flores did. His main deficiency as a player is very slow feet, even though he's not thickly built, and he has no shot to stay at shortstop and little shot of handling third base, which means he'll end up at first base or in an outfield corner, although there's an excellent chance his bat plays in any of those positions.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]42[/td][td]Wilson Ramos[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '09 Level: AA (New Britain)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM59
- AB224
- HR7
- RBI35
- SB0
- SO23
- BB6
- OBP.339
- SLG.496
- AVG.317
Ramos has had trouble staying healthy, but when he plays he hits, and he plays a premium position at which bats like his are hard to find. He missed time in 2009 with a broken finger and a partially torn hamstring, which makes his .317/.341/.454 line in 54 games at Double-A even more impressive. Ramos is big, taller than his listed 6-foot height, and his large frame suggests he might outgrow the position. But right now he throws extremely well (he's nailed 43 percent of would-be base stealers in the past two years) and his receiving is adequate. He does need to work on the intangible aspects of catching, like handling a staff, something the Twins value very highly in their catchers. At the plate, he has strong hands and very good hand-eye coordination, with a hard, line-drive-oriented swing; he's also impatient, drawing just six walks in his abbreviated 2009 season, and will have to up his patience or hit well above .300 if he ever has to move out from behind the dish. Of course, the position Ramos plays is rather well filled right now in Minnesota, and a contract extension for Joe Mauer would probably make Ramos one of the most valuable prospects on the trading block this season.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]43[/td][td]Arodys Vizcaino[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 13, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: A (Staten Island)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM10
- IP42.1
- W2
- L4
- ERA2.13
- SO52
- BB25
- H34
- HR2
- BAA.211
Vizcaino was the key to the Javier Vazquez trade even though he has yet to appear above short-season ball, which speaks to his potential as a front-line starter. His fastball is already 91-93 mph, flashing a little above that, with good life, and he hides the ball well to help the pitch play up. His best off-speed pitch is a hammer curveball that is plus at times with good depth and a slight two-plane break. His feel for pitching is advanced for someone his age, and while his arm action is short and repeatable he can lose his slot and start to drift downward, something he'll have to eliminate via instruction. He has a chance to move up the Atlanta system quickly and could catch up to fellow high-upside arms Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado soon.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]44[/td][td]Carlos Triunfel[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 27, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Second Base/Infield[/td][td]Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '09 Level: AA (W. Tennessee)
2009 ranking: 22[/td][td]
- GM11
- AB42
- HR0
- RBI8
- SB1
- SO4
- BB1
- OBP.273
- SLG.286
- AVG.238
Triunfel's 2009 was a lost year. He broke his leg a week after the regular season started, and his leg was still bothering him somewhat in his brief stint in the Arizona Fall League. He starts with his hands high but has great hand speed that he uses to close to the ball quickly and spray the field with line drives, an approach that was unchanged even after six months off between the leg break and his AFL stint. He's strong enough to hit for fringe-average power, but he's not a physical guy and probably won't have more than above-average power when he peaks. He is -- or was -- an above-average runner and base stealer, and played well at second base with some ability to play shortstop, where he may get some reps this year as well. The lost year of development hurts, and he was rusty when he played in the AFL in November; he's also been so young for his leagues that he's never performed the way a player with his hitting ability should perform in his minor league career. I mentioned last year that many scouts are skeptical about Triunfel's listed date of birth, which has him turning 20 in late February, but there's still no hard evidence to contradict it. As always, if he turns out to be two or three years older than reported, his prospect status is significantly lower.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]45[/td][td]Casey Crosby[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 17, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '09 Level: A (West Michigan)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM24
- IP104.2
- W10
- L4
- ERA2.41
- SO117
- BB48
- H70
- HR3
- BAA.195
Crosby blew out his elbow minutes after signing a pro contract with Detroit, which paid above slot to buy him away from a commitment to Illinois. The 2009 season was Crosby's first full or nearly full one in pro ball, and he showed better stuff than he'd had prior to the surgery, with his body having filled out and his elbow having returned to its original strength. Crosby's fastball is 92-97 mph with excellent downhill plane, allowing him to miss bats and also get ground balls just by varying the location on the same pitch. His curveball is already above-average: He gets on top of the ball in his delivery, giving the pitch good depth with tight rotation. His changeup is already average and should be better than that with more usage. His command and control were off when he first returned to the mound, which is typical for pitchers who've had Tommy John surgery in their first full year back, but his walk rate dropped as the year went on: He walked 26 in the first two months of 2009, covering 43.2 innings, and then walked just 24 in 66.2 innings the rest of the way. He's the type of prospect who could jump into the top 10 with a healthy year in 2010 if he carries the command improvements over for a full season.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]46[/td][td]Simon Castro[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: April 9, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '09 Level: A (Fort Wayne)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM28
- IP140.1
- W10
- L6
- ERA3.33
- SO157
- BB37
- H118
- HR9
- BAA.226
Castro seems to be flying under the radar, probably because he plays in the Padres' system and hadn't appeared in a full-season league until his outstanding debut in 2009. Castro led the Midwest League in strikeouts in 2009, and while he wasn't young for the level, his arsenal is legit and will play at higher levels. Castro has always had a big fastball, sitting 92-94 mph and reaching the mid-90s comfortably as a starter, but last year his two main off-speed pitches, his slider and changeup, made big progress -- the slider flashing plus with hard, late break. He has a great pitcher's body and could still add some weight to his 6-foot-5 frame, but all he has to do to become at least a solid No. 2 starter in the big leagues is get consistency with the slider and improve his fastball command within the zone, since he's already shown he can throw strikes and miss bats.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]47[/td][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 18, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Second Base[/td][td]Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '09 Level: AA (Huntsville)
2009 ranking: 45[/td][td]
- GM118
- AB424
- HR13
- RBI65
- SB19
- SO84
- BB41
- OBP.340
- SLG.436
- AVG.274
Lawrie hit well in the Midwest League for a 19-year-old, and if he had a clear position he might have spent the second half in high-A. The Brewers did move him up two levels in mid-August, after which he scuffled. Lawrie has a good swing, almost a classic left-handed swing but from the right side, with tremendous rotation and raw power. I've seen him overstride in BP, but he quiets down a little in games, still taking all-out swings but with such a good swing path that he covers the plate and struggles only with changing speeds. He's an intense, aggressive, "one-speed" player who might benefit from dialing it down a notch every now and then, and the lack of finesse in his game is part of what holds him back as an infielder. He played all over as an amateur but settled on second in part because he thought he had a faster path to the majors there. There's still a realistic chance he'll have to move to first or an outfield corner, limiting his projected value.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]48[/td][td]Jhoulys Chacin[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 7, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 74[/td][td]
- GM22
- IP117.2
- W9
- L8
- ERA3.21
- SO97
- BB48
- H98
- HR12
- BAA.226
Chacin struggled in an emergency promotion to the majors when he got away from his game, but was dominant again in the minors and remains a high-probability pitching prospect. His calling card is his excellent command, which carries across all three pitches, as well as plus control. His ability to locate within the zone has helped him carve up minor league hitters even in tough pitching environments. His fastball is solid-average at 89-93 mph with a little sinking tail, but his changeup is the plus pitch, about 8-9 mph off the fastball, with good arm speed. His main area for improvement is the curveball, which is in the mid-70s with a soft break, but I have seen him throw an average curveball so there's reason to believe it's in the arm. His delivery has some violence to it, but he repeats it and commands the ball, so there's no reason to tinker with his mechanics unless he comes up hurt. Another half or full season in the minors to refine the curveball -- or perhaps an apprenticeship in the Rockies' bullpen as a long man, just to keep him away from Colorado Springs -- would help.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]49[/td][td]Mike Trout[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: Aug. 7, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Center Field[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '09 Level: A (Cedar Rapids)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM44
- BA.352
- HR1
- RBI25
- H63
- OBP.419
- SLG.486
- OPS.905
- BB22
- SO34
Trout rose quickly on draft boards last spring once it stopped raining in southern New Jersey, and I think if the first round was held over again today he'd go a lot higher than 25th overall. Trout is a very good athlete who demonstrated in pro ball that the advanced approach he showed in high school was real: As a true 17-year-old in the Arizona Rookie League, he had the highest OPS of any player under 20 in the circuit, with strong walk and contact rates. Trout can wrap his bat slightly before swinging, and his front side gets a little soft on contact, but his pitch recognition and bat speed help compensate for it. He's a good athlete and an above-average runner who has the range for center, with a fringy arm. He should start the year in the Midwest League, and, given his feel for the game and his plate discipline, I wouldn't be shocked if he finished it in high-A, which would put him on the early track to stardom.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]50[/td][td]Jay Jackson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 27, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '09 Level: AAA (Iowa)
2009 ranking: 98[/td][td]
- GM24
- IP127.0
- W8
- L7
- ERA2.98
- SO127
- BB46
- H109
- HR11
- BAA.230
Jackson's first full year in pro ball in 2008 was a huge success, as he jumped all the way to AA and pitched well as a starter, missing plenty of bats with his low-90s fastball and out-pitch slider. Jackson was a two-way player at Furman University, and the athleticism is evident when he's on the mound, as he has a loose, easy arm action that he repeats pretty well. He throws four pitches, with the sharp mid-80s slider his best offering, but his changeup, while improving, could still use some work, and most of his trouble this year came against left-handed hitters. Jackson's 2009 season was interrupted by a punitive demotion after he had some very minor off-field issues, and he resolved the problem enough for the Cubs to promote him to AAA for the last week of the season. He could appear in the majors this year in relief, but he has enough of a chance to start, especially if he improves the changeup or finds another weapon to use against lefties, that a year in AAA would make a lot of sense.
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[table][tr][td]51[/td][td]Hector Rondon[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Feb. 26, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: AAA (Columbus)
2009 ranking: UR -- sleeper[/td][td]
- GM25
- IP146.1
- W11
- L10
- ERA3.38
- SO137
- BB29
- H143
- HR11
- BAA.256
Rondon arrived on the scene at the 2008 Futures Game and followed up that strong season with an even better one despite two promotions that brought him to the cusp of the big leagues. He won't turn 22 for another month, but he has already shown an unusual ability (for someone so young) to pitch with his fastball, commanding it in and around the zone; it's 91-94 mph with great life. His best off-speed pitch is his changeup, above-average at times at 83-84 with good action and arm speed. He's still working on his slider, which remains inconsistent and often has an early break. His control is superb -- he's walked 101 in 480 pro innings, and just 29 in a full minor league season in 2009. He's shown that even on nights when he doesn't have the consistent slider or his best changeup, he can pitch with his fastball. Pitchers without great breaking balls often have lower ceilings as starters, but Rondon's ability to throw strikes, soak up innings and command the fastball give him a chance to exceed that limitation.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]52[/td][td]Hank Conger[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 29, 198
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '09 Level: AA (Arkansas)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM123
- AB459
- HR11
- RBI68
- SB3
- SO68
- BB55
- OBP.368
- SLG.423
- AVG.294
Hyun "Hank" Conger was a first-round selection in 2006 but a litany of injuries -- a broken hamate bone, shoulder surgery, back and hamstring problems -- prevented him from logging a full season until 2009, when he played 123 games in the regular season and another 15 in the Arizona Fall League. He's a switch-hitter who projects to hit for power and some average, but he also improved his OBP last year. Right-handed, he has good balance and hip rotation with loft in his swing that should produce more power down the road. Left-handed, his swing is a touch longer but has more loft to it. His plate discipline had been poor in the past, a function of poor pitch recognition, but regular playing time helped him work on that, and in '09 he more than doubled his pro career walk total. He has arm strength and throws well, but his bulk slows him down a little behind the plate, as his feet don't work as well as you'd like a catcher's to work. The best-case scenario on Conger is that he's an offensive catcher who hits in the middle of a lineup with power and some patience while helping control the opposition's running game.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]53[/td][td]Anthony Rizzo[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 8, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: A (Salem)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM119
- AB445
- HR12
- RBI66
- SB4
- SO99
- BB50
- OBP.368
- SLG.461
- AVG.297
Boston's (former) top first-base prospect, Lars Anderson, struggled last year, but Rizzo is on the rise. Rizzo lost most of 2008 to his battle with limited stage classical Hodgkin's lymphoma. He's fully recovered now and, during his time away from baseball, transformed himself physically, making himself leaner and more athletic. In the process, he became one of the best defensive first basemen in the minors. He's a left-handed hitter with a very easy stroke that generates line drives to all fields, although as he grows he should develop 25-30 home run power. His approach at the plate remains immature, unsurprising given the time he missed, and he has to work on getting himself into better counts where he can stay back and drive the ball. He can't match Anderson's offensive potential, but Rizzo's defensive prowess and strong 2009 put him ahead of Lars on the Red Sox rankings.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]54[/td][td]Alcides Escobar[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 16, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 45[/td][td]
- GM109
- AB430
- HR4
- RBI34
- SB42
- SO65
- BB32
- OBP.353
- SLG.409
- AVG.298
Escobar today is pretty close to what he's going to be at his peak -- a plus defensive shortstop who makes contact, without secondary skills. Escobar has good range and makes solid reads at shortstop with good footwork, so he can turn plays quickly and is solid on the DP. His swing is short and he generates good bat speed, squaring up above-average fastballs, but his recognition of breaking balls needs work. His 34 unintentional walks in 2009 represented a new career high. He hits balls hard to the gaps but won't ever have more than fringe-average power, and he needs to reduce his tendency to lengthen his swing to try to pull the ball out. Instead, he should stick with his whole-field approach and use the off field when he falls behind. He's a 65-70 runner (on the 20-80 scale) who runs the bases well, with strong stolen-base percentages the last two years. He should be entrenched as Milwaukee's shortstop for the next four to six years because of the value he'll add with his glove.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]55[/td][td]Zach Stewart[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 28, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '09 Level: AAA (Las Vegas)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM34
- IP105.0
- W4
- L1
- ERA1.89
- SO93
- BB32
- H105
- HR3
- BAA.262
The Blue Jays wanted Stewart in the 2008 draft but missed out on him by 11 picks when Cincinnati took him, so Toronto did the only logical thing -- they traded for him a year later. A reliever at Texas Tech until the last few weekends of his college career, Stewart handled a full-time move to the rotation with no trouble last year and now projects as a mid-rotation starter with a chance to be a good No. 2. Stewart is a sinker/slider pitcher who gets plenty of ground balls with his 91-95 fastball (as a starter; it was harder in relief). But he can also miss bats with a hard slider in the low- to mid-80s that is already a consistently above-average pitch. His changeup, which he rarely used in relief, improved to the point that he had virtually no platoon split in 2009, the exception coming in the home run department (he gave up three, all to lefties), and his arm action is short and repeatable to handle 100-plus reps every fifth day. He'd project as a top-shelf reliever if he returned to that role, but the Blue Jays intend to start him and hope he develops into that rare bird among starters who misses bats and keeps the ball in the park.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]56[/td][td]Lars Anderson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 25, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: AA (Portland)
2009 ranking: 7[/td][td]
- GM119
- AB447
- HR9
- RBI51
- SB2
- SO114
- BB63
- OBP.328
- SLG.345
- AVG.233
The universal answer to the question of "What happened to Lars Anderson in 2009?" seems to be "You tell me." Anderson came into the season as a polished hitter with patience, plate coverage and power, started slowly and finished horribly, with just one home run after June and a .201/.298/.265 line during that span. Nothing changed about his mechanics -- he starts with a big move down into the hitting position, after which he takes a short path to the ball and ... well, he used to drive it to all fields and show big pull power, at least in BP, but everything went awry for him in 2009, and the cause appears to be more mental than physical or mechanical. Anderson is an unusually intelligent player -- he was spotted at spring training one year on a back field, by himself, reading "Lonesome Dove" -- and should be able to find his way out of the morass, but sometimes the game's challenges get too deep into a player's head, and some players never recover.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]57[/td][td]Jose Tabata[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 12, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Right Field[/td][td]Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '09 Level: AAA (Indianapolis)
2009 ranking: 32[/td][td]
- GM93
- AB362
- HR5
- RBI35
- SB11
- SO43
- BB30
- OBP.357
- SLG.406
- AVG.293
Tabata has been on all three iterations of this list but keeps moving down because of questions about his makeup and performance. He seems to have settled in as an offensive right fielder, but with a dwindling chance to be an impact player. The one thing Tabata definitely can do is hit, and he makes it look easy with a simple swing and excellent hand-eye coordination; he's on his front foot a little early and opens up slightly, both of which may be reducing his power output. He has shown he can handle right field and has a plus arm there, but the thickness of his body has ruled out center, which is just as well with Andrew McCutchen stationed there for the next four to six years. Outside his awful stint in Trenton in 2008, which precipitated his trade to Pittsburgh, Tabata's composite line in full-season leagues is .302/.372/.417, most of which came before his 21st birthday in August. The two major questions now on Tabata are whether his pattern of making very hard contact is going to lead to above-average power in games, and whether his listed date of birth is accurate. It's still too early to rule out a power increase, although he has a long way to go in that department to be an above-average bat in a corner; as for the latter, if he's really 23 or 24, he wouldn't make the Top 100 at all.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]58[/td][td]Tyler Flowers[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 24 (DOB: Jan. 24, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Chicago White Sox
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 51[/td][td]
- GM108
- AB353
- HR15
- RBI56
- SB3
- SO108
- BB67
- OBP.423
- SLG.516
- AVG.297
Flowers is ready to play in the majors every day, at least offensively. He'll just be marking time in Charlotte to start the year, behind a player he could outhit right now. Flowers' calling card is his enormous power; his swing has some length early, but he keeps his weight back and gets great rotation to combine for big-time power, comfortably a 60 on the 20-80 scale and possibly higher. He's very selective and runs deep counts, so while he'll swing and miss and rack up some strikeouts, he's also posted OBPs over .400 at high-A and Double-A and has to hit only about .250 or so to be a major contributor offensively for his position. His arm is average at best, and he's improving but blocky behind the plate with heavy feet; he can be an everyday catcher, but largely because his bat will be special there and will outweigh any defensive shortcomings.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]59[/td][td]Daryl Jones[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: June 25, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '09 Level: AA (Springfield)
2009 ranking: 50[/td][td]
- GM80
- BA.279
- HR3
- RBI29
- H82
- OBP.360
- SLG.378
- OPS.738
- BB33
- SO65
Jones is an incredible athlete along the lines of a Domonic Brown, with a solid swing and good plate discipline for someone his age and with his light level of baseball experience. He was a three-sport athlete in high school, playing football and track and field. Until LASIK surgery in 2007, he hadn't shown any progress as a hitter in pro ball, but he broke out in 2008 only to have a quad strain turn chronic and cost him nearly all of July and August. He's a plus-plus runner who shows good pitch recognition and sprays line drives to all fields. Where Jones may fall short as a hitter is in the power department -- he's pretty linear and doesn't transfer his weight fully, striding but keeping his weight back even through contact, so even though he's physically wired for power he's not going to fully realize that with his current swing. On defense, he has the speed for center but his reads continue to need work, and his arm won't allow him to play right. With Colby Rasmus establishing himself in center field in St. Louis, Jones will probably shift to left unless he's traded, and he'll have to get more power out of his swing to be a star in a spot that's often reserved for guys who can hit but offer little on defense.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]60[/td][td]Jordan Lyles[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Oct. 19, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Houston Astros
Top '09 Level: A (Lexington)
2009 ranking: UR -- sleeper[/td][td]
- GM26
- IP144.2
- W7
- L11
- ERA3.24
- SO167
- BB38
- H134
- HR5
- BAA.247
Lyles was tabbed an overdraft by some clubs when Houston took him in the sandwich round in the 2008 Rule 4 draft, but he established himself as their best prospect with a very strong full-season debut in the Sally League at age 18. Lyles frequently used a cutter as an amateur, but the Astros made him shelve it and had him throw a traditional curveball as his primary breaking ball to go with the above-average changeup he already had. His fastball is average now at 89-92, but he can show a hitter 94, and the changeup has hard, late tailing action like a two-seamer. By the end of the season, Lyles had resumed throwing the cutter, but only after some tinkering by Houston's player-development people helped him convert it into more of a true slider, giving him a chance to be a four-pitch guy. Lyles' control is already above-average and his command projects as the same or better. With the potential for him to add velocity, given his 6-foot-4 frame as he approaches the legal drinking age, Lyles could become a No. 2 starter or more for a team that hasn't developed anything close to that since Roy Oswalt.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]61[/td][td]Josh Bell[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 13, 1986)
Bats: Switch Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '09 Level: AA (Bowie)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM127
- AB448
- HR20
- RBI76
- SB3
- SO98
- BB61
- OBP.376
- SLG.516
- AVG.295
Bell's 2008 ended with knee surgery, but his 2009 ended with his being traded to Baltimore, where he's now the heir apparent at the hot corner. Bell is here because when he hits left-handed, he rakes, hitting .340/.419/.625 against right-handed pitchers in 2009, even after crossing the chasm to Double-A, where weaker hitters are exposed quickly by pitchers with better command or off-speed stuff. He has excellent bat speed from the left side, accelerating his wrists very quickly from the set position, although his swing is a little flat and might be more geared to doubles than home runs. On the negative side, he's futile from the right side, and he's reaching the point where the Orioles may have to consider having him give up switch-hitting if he doesn't improve in the next year. He's improving at third base and projects as an average glove there, with solid hands and an above-average arm. He should be able to take over in Baltimore sometime between midyear 2010 and the start of 2011 depending on how well he fares against left-handed pitching, regardless of how he does it.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]62[/td][td]Matt Dominguez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 28, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Third base[/td][td]Organization: Florida Marlins
Top '09 Level: AA (Jacksonville)
2009 ranking: 73[/td][td]
- GM134
- BA.247
- HR13
- RBI62
- H118
- OBP.325
- SLG.400
- OPS.724
- BB52
- SO92
Dominguez might be the best defensive third baseman in the minors and could easily handle the position in the big leagues right now if his bat were anywhere near ready. Dominguez has quick reactions to go with good reads and a natural feel for the ball at third base, and he's got a plus arm, as well; he should be a 70 defender at third (20-80 scale) when he reaches the majors. At the plate, though, he needs work. His swing works fine, but he gets his weight all on his front foot and ends up all hands, so he struggles to hit for power unless he gets a mistake or cheats on a fastball. He also showed in the Arizona Fall League that his recognition of off-speed pitches is poor, and if he were 22 he'd be a nonprospect. The Marlins have pushed him aggressively because of his defense, and a full year in Double-A in 2010 will give him plenty of experience facing good breaking balls and changeups to tell us if he's going to be able to make that adjustment and become an above-average big leaguer.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]63[/td][td]Julio Teheran[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Jan. 27, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: A (Rome)
2009 ranking: UR -- sleeper[/td][td]
- GM14
- IP81.1
- W3
- L4
- ERA3.65
- SO67
- BB18
- H78
- HR4
- BAA.257
Teheran was one of my picks to jump on this list last offseason, and now he's one of my picks to jump up into the top quarter of it. Teheran, the nephew of an Atlanta scout, barely pitched in 2008 after the team took a conservative approach with his sore shoulder. But in '09, he showed why teams are increasingly scouting the north coast of Colombia. He's got a huge arm already despite his rail-thin frame (6-foot-2, 150 pounds), 91-96 mph on the fastball with an above-average changeup, and his curveball also has a chance to be above-average in time. He's a good athlete, but his arm action isn't pretty and he has to work to stay on top of the ball if that curveball is going to be a consistent weapon for him. He has good rhythm on the mound and pitches very aggressively -- he hit almost as many batters as he walked in 2009, which usually isn't an accident -- but he has to avoid telegraphing his off-speed pitches. He still has a lot of room to fill out and could easily end up a No. 1 starter or, if he doesn't get stronger or doesn't develop the breaking ball, an upper-echelon closer.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]64[/td][td]Ike Davis[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: March 22, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First base[/td][td]Organization: New York Mets
Top '09 Level: AA (Binghamton)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM114
- BA.298
- HR20
- RBI71
- H128
- OBP.381
- SLG.524
- OPS.906
- BB57
- SO112
Davis' mediocre debut in 2008 turned out to be a red herring, as he finished his first full season in 2009 in Double-A and isn't far from reaching the majors. He has raw power, especially dead pull power, and showed that he can murder a fastball and lay off a lot of pitches out of the zone against right-handed pitchers. On the downside, Davis doesn't hit left-handed pitching at all, and even against right-handers struggles to recognize off-speed stuff. He's a reasonably good athlete who can handle first base and actually has a plus arm -- he was 92-94 mph as a reliever in college -- although that's less relevant at the position. A full year in Double-A/Triple-A to work on pitch recognition and on improving his approach against left-handers is probably critical for his future as an everyday player, but he has a chance to be an above-average one if he can shed the "platoon player" tag with more reps.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]65[/td][td]Jason Castro[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: June 18, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Houston Astros
Top '09 Level: AA (Corpus Christi)
2009 ranking: 96[/td][td]
- GM119
- AB446
- HR10
- RBI73
- SB3
- SO76
- BB55
- OBP.380
- SLG.446
- AVG.300
Castro doesn't have much star potential but does project as a solid everyday catcher if he can answer some lingering questions about his defense, which has a few teams questioning whether he will be able to play the position in the big leagues. I think he can, since he has the arm strength and enough athleticism to learn the position with more instruction and reps. His swing is very simple, with a short path to the ball and some loft, and he keeps his weight back well. But because he's not a big guy and lacks great bat speed, he probably projects to have only average power. Still, he should hit for average and get on base. His defense is probably adequate now to play in the big leagues, especially with nothing blocking him in Houston, and with some improvement he could be an average regular for an organization that hasn't had that behind the plate in a decade.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]66[/td][td]Todd Frazier[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Feb. 12, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: AAA (Louisville)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM135
- AB514
- HR16
- RBI77
- SB9
- SO79
- BB48
- OBP.351
- SLG.481
- AVG.292
Frazier has reached Triple-A on the strength of good (but not great) offensive performances and the hope that he can play an infield position in the big leagues after he moved off his amateur position of shortstop. His swing is awkward, with a big move down and a front-arm bar; he gets his weight on his front leg but buckles his knee, and between that and the flat swing plane, he's not going to hit for much power. He does have good hand-eye coordination and bat speed once he gets going, leading to hard contact, but so far he hasn't shown the power or patience to profile in an outfield corner if he has to move there. His current position -- sort of -- is second base, but he's very rough there, may not have the feet for the position and risks offensive stagnation because of the toll of playing second base. His best chance to play in the infield is third base, but he's barely played it as a pro because of Juan Francisco, a toolsy third baseman who has huge power but has drawn 55 unintentional walks in nearly 1,900 pro plate appearances. Frazier earns very high marks for his makeup, with one scout comparing his to Dustin Pedroia's, both in the sense that Pedroia made himself a better player through his work ethic and outlook, and Pedroia's character as a team leader. If the Reds are serious about Frazier's playing every day in the majors, they may have to hold Francisco back a half-season to let Frazier learn the hot corner in Triple-A.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]67[/td][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Sept. 12, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First base[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: AA (Mississippi)
2009 ranking: 65[/td][td]
- GM111
- BA.282
- HR8
- RBI58
- H114
- OBP.363
- SLG.408
- OPS.771
- BB37
- SO60
Freeman is yet another former two-way star on this list -- if you're a legitimate prospect as both a position player and a pitcher, you're probably a pretty good athlete and offer more upside than the typical one-way prospect. At the plate, he sets up with a wide base and doesn't stride or really transfer his weight through his swing. So while he has good rotation to hit for power, he's mostly hands at this point and has traded some power for high contact rates. Unlike a lot of young left-handed hitters, he shows no appreciable platoon split, and while he's not exactly patient, he's not a hacker. Freeman is an above-average defender at first base, and there's some reason to expect more growth as a hitter given his youth and frame. But I still see him as a guy who'll hit for average with doubles power, but not the high OBP or home run totals that would make him a star at first base.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]68[/td][td]Matt Sweeney[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: April 4, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: A (Charlotte)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM68
- AB245
- HR9
- RBI44
- SB2
- SO49
- BB31
- OBP.371
- SLG.482
- AVG.286
Sweeney came to Tampa Bay with lefty Alex Torres and middle infielder Sean Rodriguez in the Scott Kazmir deal -- it was such a large price to pay in future talent that the Angels also picked up all of Kazmir's salary. All three prospects will play in the big leagues, with Sweeney offering the best chance for above-average performance because of his bat. Sweeney has a fantastic swing, with good hands, good bat control and quick wrist acceleration, leading to hard, line-drive contact, and he can drive balls out anywhere from left-center to right. He blew out his knee and missed the 2008 season, then played in just 68 games in 2009, so he's lost a significant amount of development time and is less polished than a typical 21-year-old corner bat. Defensively, he's played third base but is likely to end up at first since he's heavy-footed, and the knee surgery didn't make him any faster. Even at first, his bat should play, but he'll need more than one full season of at-bats to get there.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]69[/td][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 11, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third Base[/td][td]Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '09 Level: A (Wilmington)
2009 ranking: 44[/td][td]
- GM129
- AB492
- HR16
- RBI86
- SB10
- SO90
- BB32
- OBP.297
- SLG.421
- AVG.250
It wasn't a great year for Moustakas, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2007 draft, but it wasn't as bad as the stat line makes it appear. He was 20 years old in high-A in a severe pitchers' park; he did hit .292/.331/.473 on the road, a very respectable line for someone at that age and level in a half season's worth of at bats, although you can see even there that his plate discipline isn't strong. Moustakas has a smooth swing and gets to the ball quickly, with more defined loft in his swing the last time I saw him, giving him more chance to hit for power, which he's already strong enough to do. He's very rough at third -- he's built like Mr. Strong, for those of you familiar with the Mr./Ms. children's books -- with an outstanding arm but a slow lower half. He could end up being adequate there, but I think it's more likely he ends up in right field or at first base. I refuse to give up on the idea of his playing catcher, as he did a handful of times in high school. He'll play in Double-A this year at 21 and, while "make or break" might be too strong, it will clarify whether Moustakas has a chance to be an impact bat or just a solid-average one.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]70[/td][td]Austin Jackson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Feb. 1, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '09 Level: AAA (Scranton-WB)
2009 ranking: 46[/td][td]
- GM132
- AB504
- HR4
- RBI65
- SB24
- SO123
- BB40
- OBP.354
- SLG.405
- AVG.300
Jackson's upside keeps dropping as he moves up the ladder, so while he's still young enough to improve, he's now a player without a plus tool who'll play in the majors but whose chance for stardom is slim. Jackson's tools are average to a tick above across-the-board, with speed probably his best tool at the moment and power his worst; he can play center but isn't a top-flight defender yet. His contact and walk rates have been dropping as he's been promoted, and he's never had a chance to catch his breath by repeating a level for even an additional half-season. All those negatives don't add up to a bad prospect -- a true center fielder with a league-average bat is a good player, and that's a realistic projection for Jackson right now.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]71[/td][td]Michael Brantley[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: May 15, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: AAA (Columbus)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM116
- AB457
- HR6
- RBI37
- SB46
- SO48
- BB59
- OBP.350
- SLG.361
- AVG.267
Brantley has some of the best bat control of anyone on this list, with an improving eye at the plate and above-average speed that all plays up because of his feel for the game. He keeps his hands back incredibly well, letting the ball travel and then ripping the bat through the zone and showing the ability to shoot an outside pitch down the left field line. He can run but, more importantly, is a very high-percentage base stealer who reads pitchers well, stealing on over 81 percent of attempts in his minor league career. He's a good center fielder who could probably play center every day for a number of teams, but won't get that chance in Cleveland unless Grady Sizemore gets hurt again. Brantley's main liability is lack of power, which may limit his ability to play in an outfield corner unless he hits and reaches base at the top end of his abilities -- which he might very well do given his instincts and ability to square up so many pitches.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]72[/td][td]Mike Leake[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 12, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: AFL (Peoria)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM6
- IP19.2
- W1
- L2
- ERA1.37
- SO15
- BB3
- H20
- HR0
- BAA.256
Leake was one of the most polished pitchers in the 2009 draft, and between that and his lack of projection, he should reach the majors fairly soon. Leake pitched at 88-92 mph in college but will probably be more 87-90 working every fifth day. But that two-seamer has a hard, late tailing action that should get ground balls and even break some bats. He has a standard assortment of off-speed pitches, including a short two-planer curveball with a break that appears to accelerate as it approaches the batter, a hard changeup around 80-81 mph with some tail, and a slider with good tilt just below that velocity. He's a serious strike-thrower who commands his fastball and works fast, which may give hitters less time to adjust to the way he's changing speeds and locations on them. At Arizona State, Leake also played some outfield and could swing the bat a little, so he's a good athlete and fields well on the mound, and his arm works well. With four pitches that move, plus command and control, plus his being a good athlete, he's a top-100 guy -- and even if he tops out as a No. 3 starter, the fact that he'll be in the majors this summer makes him a valuable asset.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]73[/td][td]Fernando Martinez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 10, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Right Field[/td][td]Organization: New York Mets
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 16[/td][td]
- GM45
- AB176
- HR8
- RBI28
- SB2
- SO33
- BB11
- OBP.337
- SLG.540
- AVG.290
Martinez has one of the biggest drops of anyone on this list (from last year's list), but I'm not down on Martinez's offensive potential -- the ball still comes off his bat incredibly well, comparable to Starlin Castro, who sits in the Top 25 of this list because of that skill -- and I could have left Martinez in the Top 25 and justified it. The problems with "F-Mart," aside from the fact that Mets fans decided to give him a nickname more appropriate for a farm-equipment discount store, aren't about baseball skills. He continues to have trouble staying healthy, and there's a real risk of Chris Snelling disease here, with lack of playing time limiting his development; he's never had more than 400 plate appearances in any season, and even including winter ball this offseason, when he was just back from knee surgery, he had fewer than 300 PAs in '09. Martinez has also had his work ethic and conditioning called into question, including a visible lack of effort more than once at the big league level last year. Very few players can coast to major league stardom on talent alone, and Martinez needs to grow up -- he's still just 21 years old -- to turn himself into an elite corner-outfield bat. (It looks like Martinez has exactly 45 days on the Mets' active roster, which would make him eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2010, as well as for this list. If he had just one more day on the active roster, he'd no longer be eligible.)
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]74[/td][td]Michael Saunders[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 19, 1986)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield[/td][td]Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '09 Level: MLB (Seattle)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM64
- AB248
- HR13
- RBI32
- SB6
- SO48
- BB25
- OBP.378
- SLG.544
- AVG.310
Saunders was completely overmatched as a 22-year-old in the majors in 2009, but that shouldn't destroy perceptions of his future value, because he still hit well in a tough hitters' park in Triple-A Tacoma earlier in the year. He's a strong kid with noisy hands but good forearm strength, so when he whips the bat through the zone he can still drive the ball even if he's a little late. He's a good athlete who runs well, threw well before 2008 labrum surgery and, strangely enough, he's pretty good at bunting for hits, which isn't a skill you ordinarily see in a tall power hitter. His issues in the majors seemed to stem from some pitch recognition problems, but it's also possible that he was compensating for the shoulder issue with minor alterations in his swing. He's got raw power and speed and can provide good defense in an outfield corner, so even if he's never a high-contact hitter, he's likely to be an average to above-average corner outfielder in the majors.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]75[/td][td]Michael Montgomery[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: July 1, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '09 Level: A (Burlington)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM21
- IP111.0
- W6
- L4
- ERA2.21
- SO98
- BB36
- H80
- HR1
- BAA.201
Of the Royals' growing group of pitching prospects -- real ones, not the Jimmy Gobble/Chris George variety -- Montgomery isn't the closest to the majors. He may not even have the highest ceiling, but he's the most intriguing with his combination of skills and potential. He's a tall, lean lefty (6-foot-5, 180 pounds) with a good delivery that he repeats well. His fastball has already moved up since high school from 88-92 mph to 90-93 mph, and it should gradually increase as he fills out his long frame. His best pitch is his changeup, now a plus pitch with good tumble and arm speed, and he's made a lot of progress in transitioning to a traditional curveball from the palm ball he used more often in high school (although the latter could still be a twice-a-game weapon for him down the road). He's a rabid competitor with a good work ethic, and given these strengths plus his physical projection and solid control, he's at the top of the heap of arms on the Royals' farm.
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[table][tr][td]76[/td][td]Yonder Alonso[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: April 8, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: First Base[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: AA (Carolina)
2009 ranking: 76[/td][td]
- GM84
- AB295
- HR9
- RBI52
- SB1
- SO46
- BB41
- OBP.374
- SLG.464
- AVG.292
Alonso's first year in pro ball was limited by a broken hamate bone, an injury that limits power for as much as a full year after the surgery to repair it, so his modest home run total might not be that indicative of his future potential. Alonso is a bat, bringing a patient approach to the plate and good ability to center the ball against right-handed pitchers. When healthy, he has above-average pull power, projecting to plus, again doing most of his damage against righties. He's a sound defender at first but has slow feet and hard hands, meaning he'll probably never be more than adequate there. Like many young left-handed hitters, Alonso doesn't hit left-handed pitching well at all, but with him it's not a question of contact but of results when he makes contact, which could be a positive (at least he's not flailing hopelessly) or a negative (it's not a question of a inexperience against left-handed pitching in which he's not used to seeing the ball out of a southpaw's hand). Even if that doesn't improve dramatically, he'll still be a valuable big leaguer because of his power/patience combination and ability to at least have good at-bats against left-handed pitchers.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]77[/td][td]Trevor Reckling[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: May 22, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '09 Level: AA (Arkansas)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM26
- IP154.1
- W11
- L11
- ERA2.68
- SO122
- BB78
- H127
- HR6
- BAA.232
Reckling became one of the most asked-for prospects in the Angels' farm system over the course of 2009 as the Angels made the odd decision to jump him two levels to AA, where he showed the same potential four-pitch mix that had him on my sleeper list last year but without the command he'd shown the previous year. Reckling's fastball is solid-average, up to 92 mph on the four-seamer, without much projection for more velocity, but it's his assortment of secondary pitches and feel for them that makes him special: a hard curveball with late bite and an improved slider that has late, east-to-west break that allows Reckling to get it under a right-hander's bat. His changeup is his worst pitch at the moment, but he has good deception on it and it's a future-average pitch as well. His ceiling is probably that of a No. 3 starter, but he's young and already survived the AA test; the Angels should slow him down, give him a full year in AAA (or even another month or two in AA), and let him work on his fastball command and overall control before he gets to the big leagues.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]78[/td][td]Tanner Scheppers[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Jan. 17, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '09 Level: AFL (Surprise)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM7
- IP11
- W0
- L0
- ERA5.73
- SO9
- BB4
- H9
- HR1
- BAA.237
Scheppers is either a front-line starter in the making or a ticking time bomb. He fell out of the first round in two consecutive drafts because of a combination of high (perceived) bonus demands and an impingement in his shoulder that ended his 2008 season but didn't affect his stuff in 2009, either before the draft or after he signed in the fall. Scheppers has hit 97 mph as a starter and a reliever and sat 95-98 in relief in the Arizona Fall League, adding a filthy, hard, late-breaking two-plane curveball in the lower 80s, both of which are going to help him rack up strikeouts. He has a mid-80s changeup but didn't need it much in the fall. If he didn't have the shoulder question, he'd project as a workhorse due to his body and short arm action. He's 23, has some sort of damage in his shoulder and can miss big league bats now. Texas should push him as aggressively as possible through their system with an eye toward a mid-2010 debut, not only because of the injury issue but also because he's not far from ready, even if it's just in a relief apprenticeship a la Neftali Feliz in 2009.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]79[/td][td]Andrew Cashner[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 11, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '09 Level: AA (Tennessee)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM24
- IP100.1
- W3
- L4
- ERA2.60
- SO75
- BB42
- H76
- HR1
- BAA.207
Cashner closed at TCU -- which has really improved its baseball profile in the past few years (including landing the top unsigned player from the 2009 draft, lefty Matt Purke) -- but has worked as a starter in the Cubs' system. It's a big arm, with a fastball at 93-98 mph even over multiple innings and a hard slider with very good tilt in the mid-80s, with his slider command ahead of his fastball command when I saw him. He has a changeup but rarely uses it; it has some tail but mostly just glove-side run. He gets ground balls but it's not extreme, and I don't think his home run rate from 2009 indicates some preternatural ability to keep the ball in the park. What's odd about Cashner is that for a guy with a power arm, he doesn't miss a lot of bats, and neither his control nor his ground-ball rate is high enough for him to be a good starter with a low strikeout rate. If he has to return to the pen, he'll be dominant there, but the Cubs will probably let him continue to start and see if he can improve his command and find a way to miss more bats.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]80[/td][td]Jacob Turner[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: May 21, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '09 Level: Prep
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
The top high school arm in the 2009 Rule 4 draft, Turner landed in Detroit at the ninth overall pick, unsurprising given scouting director David Chadd's proclivity for power arms. Turner sits 94-96 mph, touching 98, with hard boring action on the fastball, and he dominated high school competition in Missouri by blowing it by hitters. He has the arm speed and wrist for his curveball to become plus, as it already has a hard downward break with some angle to it, and he maintains his arm speed on his changeup but rarely used it as an amateur. He has a great pitcher's body and his arm works well after a low hand separation, but he needs to refine his secondary pitches and perhaps see if he can get any downhill plane on his fastball. He signed too late to appear in 2009, but the Tigers are usually aggressive with their young arms and could send him to the Midwest League, either when the season starts or when the weather starts to warm up in May.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]81[/td][td]Matt Moore[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: June 18, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '09 Level: A (Bowling Green)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM26
- IP123
- W8
- L5
- ERA3.15
- SO176
- BB70
- H86
- HR6
- BAA.195
Moore took a huge step forward in 2009 -- not just year-over-year, but as the 2009 season went on -- to add his name to the ranks of big arms coming out of Tampa Bay's system. Moore is a three-pitch guy with a low-90s fastball that has touched 96 in previous years and an above-average circle-change. His curveball is slurvy at 79-81 but it has missed minor league bats, more so than his fastball, which has downward tail and is more likely to get ground balls. Moore started the year shakily but his command and control improved over the course of the season, including a big cut in his walk rate after May 31 (33 in 165 PA before, 37 in 357 after). His delivery is easy and he's shown he can dial the fastball up or down. He's one of a number of A-ball arms on this list who could make a huge leap in 2010.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]82[/td][td]Tony Sanchez[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: May 20, 198
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher[/td][td]Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '09 Level: A (Bradenton)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM48
- AB178
- HR7
- RBI48
- SB1
- SO40
- BB23
- OBP.409
- SLG.539
- AVG.309
Sanchez was a slight overdraft with the fourth overall pick -- I would have taken Tyler Matzek in that spot, but the Pirates weren't willing to come close to Matzek's predraft bonus demands -- but had a strong pro debut and looks like he'll reach the majors earlier than most of the players on whom Pittsburgh passed to take him. He has a good swing and solid approach with moderate to above-average power, although he has a slightly soft front side that limited his contact rate as an amateur. Behind the plate he struggled a little with his throwing in pro ball, but before that his arm had been a strength and should still be one in the future; he has some agility behind the plate despite his size and has worked to keep himself in good condition. He's probably never going to be a star, but he's very likely to be an every-day catcher in the majors who might throw an All-Star season out there once or twice in his career.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]83[/td][td]Chris Withrow[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: April 1, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '09 Level: AA (Chattanooga)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM25
- IP113.2
- W8
- L8
- ERA4.51
- SO131
- BB57
- H104
- HR5
- BAA.249
Withrow appeared at No. 86 on the 2008 edition of this list, but fell off after developing The Thing (also known as Steve Blass Disease) in 2008, a malady from which few pitchers recover. Withrow appears to be on his way back, and while his control is still below-average -- more on that in a moment -- he was able to throw a full season in a tough league for pitchers. His arm is live, with a 91-97 mph fastball, and he'll show an above-average curve with good depth, although it's not consistent yet and he can snap it off a little early. He has a changeup that is improving, but it's still below average. Lefties got to him last year: 41 of the 57 walks he issued in 2009 were to left-handed hitters, so against right-handers he was as good as a specialist reliever (71 strikeouts and 16 walks in 231 right-handed batters faced, per minorleaguesplits.com). It's a huge arm with a good frame, and there's No. 1 starter potential here; 2009 was almost like his first year in pro ball, and he could make a huge step forward in his second full year back from oblivion.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]84[/td][td]Zack Wheeler[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: May 21, 1991)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '09 Level: Prep
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
Wheeler, the sixth pick in the 2009 draft, was one of the top prep arms in the pool last year, combining above-average stuff with a competitive approach. He has easy 91-96 mph velocity with excellent late life on the pitch, and pairs it with a hard slurve that projects as plus; he has great feel for the slurve and can sweep it away from righties or tighten it up to hit the inside corner. His changeup is rudimentary, more like a fastball thrown at 80 percent than a proper changeup. His arm works well and quickly, with a major stride toward the plate leading to rapid arm acceleration, with a little projection left, two above-average pitches, and a good delivery. At 6-4, 170 pounds before the draft, he has a good frame and physical projection, although that's probably more for durability than added velocity. He has No. 1/No. 2 starter potential, and given how aggressive the Giants were with Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson, there's reason to believe Wheeler will start out in full-season ball in 2010.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]85[/td][td]Randall Delgado[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 9, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '09 Level: A (Rome)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM25
- IP124
- W5
- L10
- ERA4.35
- SO141
- BB49
- H123
- HR9
- BAA.256
Delgado pitched in the shadow of Julio Teheran this year, and I'd bet you could find a few scouts who rated him over Teheran even though I have Delgado second. Delgado is 6-foot-3 and has already put on a good 25 pounds since signing, with improvement in his stuff to match. His fastball is just above average and will touch 94-95, with a changeup that has improved to above-average and a chance for the curveball to be the same. He's still looking for a consistent arm action, which is part of why he's behind Teheran, but his upside isn't much lower than his teammate's. It's to the Braves' credit that they found two top-flight pitching prospects from outside the traditional Latin American talent markets, getting Teheran from Colombia and Delgado from Panama.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]86[/td][td]Ryan Kalish[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: March 28, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Left field[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: AA (Portland)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM135
- AB506
- HR18
- RBI77
- SB21
- SO107
- BB68
- OBP.364
- SLG.457
- AVG.279
Kalish broke his wrist not long after signing with Boston in 2006, limiting his playing time in 2007 and perhaps damping down his power output even into 2008, but last year he had a mild breakout. His wrist was healthy and he had more reps under his belt, and of course physical maturation is a major factor for high school players as they approach their age 21/22 seasons. Kalish was primarily a football player growing up, and the Red Sox had to do a lot of work to help him find a consistent swing. Unfortunately, he had to do that work while recovering hand and wrist strength after the injury. He's become a lot stronger since then, and his pitch recognition has also improved. The drift in his swing that affected his output in high school is gone, with much better weight transfer and good hip rotation, so while he's not the quick, athletic teenager the Red Sox signed, he's now a more polished overall hitter who's already coming into some power and may add more.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]87[/td][td]Aaron Crow[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 11, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '09 Level: AFL (Surprise)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM4
- IP15.1
- W0
- L2
- ERA5.87
- SO12
- BB2
- H17
- HR2
- BAA.288
The Royals have some arms coming, and the additions of Crow and Noel Arguelles this fall only added to the pile. Crow hasn't pitched much in the past year and a half after a long holdout that appears to have cost him some money in the end, but assuming the rust isn't too deep he should be able to reach Double-A (or higher) in 2010. He made a handful of starts in independent ball before the draft, sitting 90-93 mph and touching 94, and he showed the same velocity in the Arizona Fall League despite a four-month layoff. He gets some tailing life on the fastball, and his slider has a chance to be plus; it's 80-83 mph with a hard, late break and good tilt. He'll also show an average changeup at 78-80 mph. His delivery isn't pretty, with a big hook in the back, a high elbow as he strides forward and some head violence after release. He should be a fast mover, and given the injury risk in his delivery it's in the Royals' best interest to get him started up the chain.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]88[/td][td]Chris Heisey[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 25 (DOB: Dec. 14, 1984)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfielder[/td][td]Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '09 Level: AAA (Louisville)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM134
- AB516
- HR22
- RBI77
- SB21
- SO77
- BB48
- OBP.379
- SLG.521
- AVG.314
Heisey, a 17th-round pick in 2006 out of Messiah College in Pennsylvania, obliterated AA pitching to establish himself as a solid offensive prospect who's not far from contributing to a major league club. He destroyed AA pitching, earning an invitation to the Futures Game and a ticket to the Arizona Fall League, even though he doesn't have the typical prospect pedigree or a classic swing. Heisey brings his hands way back to nearly fully bar his front arm, but he has the hand-eye coordination, bat speed, and strength to overcome that handicap. His power is line-drive power rather than the big raw power of many of the corner outfield prospects on this list, so he's going to have to continue to hit for average with plenty of doubles to secure an every-day job, with the hope that his power gradually increases as he gets into his late 20s. He did cool off after a late-season promotion to AAA, so it's possible Heisey's performance was just a function of a slightly older player dominating AA; given the positives he brings to the plate, I'd bet at least some of it is real.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]89[/td][td]Kyle Gibson[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 23, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '09 Level: Fall instructional
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
Gibson should have been a top 10-12 pick in the 2009 draft, but a stress fracture in his forearm slid him down to the Twins at No. 22, where they were willing to stomach the risk around his injury for the chance at an arm that would not ordinarily have been available that far down in the round. So far, so good, as Gibson was fully healed by instructional league and pitched at 90-91 mph, touching 93, close to his velocity before the broken bone. His changeup is his best offspeed pitch, as he turns it over well and gets good fade on it, while his slider can show good tilt and bite but remains inconsistent. His arm works extremely well through a drop-and-drift delivery with a final step forward, although he has some recoil at the end as he releases the ball. He's tall with some projection remaining and generates downhill plane on the fastball, keeping the ball on the ground relatively often. The knock on him in the draft was the lack of a real knockout pitch, and he may never have one, but he's fairly polished, with above-average command and control, and should move quickly if the arm issue is behind him.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]90[/td][td]Jake Arrieta[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: March 6, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '09 Level: AAA (Norfolk)
2009 ranking: 92[/td][td]
- GM28
- IP150.2
- W11
- L11
- ERA3.40
- SO148
- BB56
- H142
- HR13
- BAA.250
Arrieta finished his second full season in pro ball in Triple-A after showing improved control at Double-A in the first half of the year. Beyond the significant improvement in his control, he remains what he was: a four-pitch guy with no plus pitch but nothing below-average. His arm path is long but he repeats it well enough to throw strikes, although his command remains fringe-average at best. He knows how to change speeds and keep hitters off-balance, which may help him play up above the average repertoire. Two scouts with whom I spoke saw Arrieta in 2009 and tabbed him a No. 4 starter, but I wouldn't rule out him becoming a solid No. 3 with some command improvements and his feel for adding and subtracting from his fastball.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]91[/td][td]Jose Iglesias[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 5, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: AFL (Mesa)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM18
- AB69
- HR2
- RBI12
- SB3
- SO11
- BB4
- OBP.324
- SLG.420
- AVG.275
Iglesias is a premium defensive shortstop with a chance to hit, so while he probably won't be any kind of impact bat, he'll be worth a few wins a year with a plus glove and a bat that plays at that position. On defense, he has both quickness and instincts, with good feet, great hands and quick turns and transfers, as well as an above-average arm. He's an aggressive hitter with a swing-first mentality, but his swing is short to the ball and should produce lots of contact, even hard contact once he gets more reps in pro ball. He'll probably max out with grade 40 or so power on the 20-80 scale, but if he can improve the quality of his contact, he'll be productive for the position. At worst, he might be Adam Everett, but I think he'll end up more than an automatic out by the time he reaches the big leagues.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]92[/td][td]Drew Storen[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 11, 1987)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '09 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM28
- IP37
- W2
- L1
- ERA1.95
- SO12
- BB6
- H21
- HR2
- BAA.162
Storen was a draft-eligible sophomore in 2009 because he was already 21, and the Nationals popped him with the 10th overall pick, signed him immediately, and had him in Double-A by the end of the summer, putting him on track to debut in the big leagues in 2010. He's a three-pitch reliever marked by good command and outstanding control. Storen's two-seam fastball will sit 90-94 mph and occasionally touch a little higher, and it has hard tailing life down and in to right-handers. He varies his breaking ball but most are 82-86 with solid tilt, although he can drop the velocity slightly and get a little more curve-like action on it. He walked just eight men all spring at Stanford, three in one forgettable outing, then walked eight more in 37 innings in the minors, most of which came in AA in August. (Odd fact about Storen's walks in pro ball: Only one of the eight came with a man on base.) On stuff and control, he could make the Nationals' club this spring and be one of their better relievers, but a half-season to rip through Double-A and Triple-A wouldn't hurt his development, especially since the Nationals are still in building mode.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]93[/td][td]Grant Green[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 27, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Oakland Athletics
Top '09 Level: A (Stockton)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM5
- AB19
- HR0
- RBI3
- SB1
- SO5
- BB1
- OBP.350
- SLG.368
- AVG.316
Green came into the spring of 2009 as the top college position player in the draft, but was passed by Dustin Ackley after a rough spring -- especially in the field -- and the A's think that allowed them to grab a top-10 talent with the 13th pick. He's strong with good hand speed and might hit for more power if he didn't leak or let the ball travel deeper, although his swing is probably more geared to line-drive contact than big flies. He's patient and should post at least adequate OBPs, although pitchers can get him out now by changing speeds on him, an adjustment he'll have to make by AA, if not sooner. He's a bright player with a good work ethic, so he has a good chance to make some of these changes given more pro experience. The A's absolutely see him as a shortstop, but many scouts and I have questions about his arm and footwork there. I wouldn't be shocked if he moved to third base or even ended up in center field, where his speed will play up and footwork and arm issues are less problematic.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]94[/td][td]Jiovanni Mier[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 26, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Houston Astros
Top '09 Level: Rookie (Greeneville)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM51
- AB192
- HR7
- RBI32
- SB10
- SO45
- BB30
- OBP.380
- SLG.484
- AVG.276
Mier was the top pure shortstop in the 2009 draft, which reflects his defensive and offensive promise as well as the lean crop of shortstops in last year's amateur crop. (The upcoming draft doesn't look any better in that department, so Mier's relative value seems to keep going up.) Mier has the potential to be a plus defender at short, with good hands, a plus arm, and easy transfers, but needs work on details like footwork, maintaining his arm slot and reading ground balls, all of which can come with instruction and reps in pro ball. As a hitter, he's got good plate coverage and showed solid pitch recognition in pro ball; his hands are quick and he doesn't project for much power, although he did hit seven home runs in short-season ball and may end up in the 15-20 home run range. He's an above-average runner. True shortstops who can hit are incredibly valuable at the big league level -- look at how all-glove-no-bat shortstops are getting paid in the majors right now -- and Mier has the ceiling of a top offensive producer for his position.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]95[/td][td]Jared Mitchell[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 13, 198
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfielder[/td][td]Organization: Chicago White Sox
Top '09 Level: A (Kannapolis)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM34
- AB115
- HR0
- RBI10
- SB5
- SO40
- BB23
- OBP.417
- SLG.435
- AVG.296
Mitchell, a part-time wide receiver at LSU when he wasn't starting in the Tigers' outfield, showed more polish than anticipated when the White Sox signed him and shoved him right into the fire of the full-season Sally League. He's a plus runner with a plus arm, and has a chance to be above-average in center. His bat speed is good, but his swing is long with a late trigger, and his pitch recognition wasn't great in college, although he generally ran deep counts. He had a sizable platoon split both in college and pro ball in 2009, although he hasn't had many reps against southpaws and might just need more experience. When he squares a ball up, it takes off, and the lack of power in his pro debut doesn't give you a sense of his future home run potential. It's not a great swing, but he's a good athlete and doesn't have the wood-bat experience of the typical college product, so he has more room for upside once he's swinging wood and facing better pitching on a regular basis, especially if the White Sox can help him make a few mechanical adjustments.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]96[/td][td]Manny Banuelos[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 18 (DOB: March 13, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: New York Yankees
Top '09 Level: A (Tampa)
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
- GM26
- IP109
- W9
- L5
- ERA2.64
- SO104
- BB28
- H88
- HR4
- BAA.219
Banuelos and Zach McAllister are both pretty close and I could have put McAllister on the list instead, but I'll roll the dice on Banuelos' age and chance for a little more velocity as he matures physically. He sits 90-92 mph right now as a starter with a solid-average changeup, and a chance for both pitches to improve to above-average in time. His curveball remains his weakest offering, soft without much depth, although he has the arm speed to throw a good breaking ball; it just may turn out to be a slider or cutter instead of a true curve. He has good feel and tremendous mound presence, which helped him survive as an 18-year-old in the full-season Sally League. He's also one of the best Mexican prospects in the minors, as the Yankees are one of the few teams to still scout Mexico aggressively for amateur talent. His ceiling is probably just a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, but given his youth and feel he's got a good chance to get there.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]97[/td][td]Miguel Sano[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 16 (DOB: May 11, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Shortstop[/td][td]Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '09 Level: Fall instructional
2009 ranking: IE[/td][td]
Sano, whose visa reads "Miguel Jean," signed too late for anything but instructional league this year, so we'll have to wait till 2010 to see how he fares against pro pitchers -- but his hitting tools are evident. He has a natural aptitude for hitting, with good balance, bat speed and good leverage to hit for power, and as he fills out he's expected to do a lot of both. He's tall and lean now, but projects physically to end up built like Troy Glaus or Scott Rolen, two big bats at third base; Rolen spent his career as a plus defender. Sano has the arm to play anywhere on the field, but he's an average runner now and will end up below as he matures, so third base is probably the toughest position he'll be able to handle. The Twins are hoping they just landed their Miguel Cabrera, another player who signed at age 16 out of Latin America because of the promise of his bat, but we won't have any hard data on Sano until the middle of this year.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]98[/td][td]Junichi Tazawa [/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 23 (DOB: June 6, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher[/td][td]Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '09 Level: Majors
2009 ranking: 90[/td][td]
- GM6
- IP25.1
- W2
- L3
- ERA7.46
- SO13
- BB9
- H43
- HR4
- BAA.374
Last year's capsule on Tazawa began: "Tazawa isn't quite big-league ready, but he's fairly close and could start in Double-A and appear in the majors by year-end." Pitching regularly in a starting rotation, Tazawa's stuff slipped a little bit in quality, with an average fastball at 89-91 mph with a little tail but no downhill plane or sink. He showed promise with two secondary pitches -- a curveball in the mid-70s with good depth and an above-average splitter around 80 mph with good bottom (although when I saw him he didn't use this pitch as much as he should have). His arm action is long, but he repeats it well and gets good momentum headed towards the plate. He'll have to develop above-average fastball command and mix in his splitter more often to be more than a fifth starter, but considering that 2009 was his first year in any level higher than a Japanese industrial league, he has more room for growth as a pitcher than the typical 23-year-old does.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]99[/td][td]Travis D'Arnaud[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 20 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher [/td][td]Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '09 Level: A (Lakewood)
2009 ranking: UR[/td][td]
- GM126
- AB482
- HR13
- RBI71
- SB8
- SO75
- BB41
- OBP.319
- SLG.419
- AVG.255
The Blue Jays were ready to take D'Arnaud in the 2007 draft, only to have the Phillies pick their pocket one selection ahead of them. He's moved slowly through the minors in two and a half years in the system, but after a slow start in 2009 he hit .298/.370/.470 from June 1st to the end of the year, right in line with his performance the previous season. He's an athletic catcher with arm strength who needs polish behind the plate on both his footwork and throwing mechanics. As a hitter, he has a good idea of the strike zone with good bat control; he wraps his bat very slightly but gets to the ball quickly with good rotation for average to above-average future power. He's a few years off but has promise as an offensive catcher with good defensive skills, a more complete player than the Jays' other main catching prospect, J.P. Arencibia.
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[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][/tr][tr][td]100[/td][td]Nick Hagadone[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td]Age: 24 (DOB: Jan. 1, 1986)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher [/td][td]Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '09 Level: A (Greenville)
2009 ranking: 81[/td][td]
Hagadone had an eventful year in 2009, coming back from Tommy John surgery only to find himself traded 25 innings into his return in the Victor Martinez deal. He has an electric arm, sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper 90s with good life, and his slider is above-average to plus. Left-handed hitters are just 12-for-71 off Hagadone in pro ball, with no extra-base hits, and he's been a strong ground-ball pitcher across his three partial seasons in the minors. He drops in the rankings from last year because the probability of him holding up as a starter seems a lot lower now than it did last year, when he was still recovering from the surgery and we could talk about best-case scenarios for the recovery. In relief, however, a lefty with two plus pitches and a usable changeup is a potentially dominant weapon in any inning because of his ability to miss left-handed bats without a major platoon split.
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jpzx
Supporter
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Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson
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I dare somebody to quote that
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Isn't that suppose to be a top 100 list?
MLB.com has video profiles for their top 50: http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=7962336&content_id=7150995
The Rays signed Matt Bush.
MLB.com has video profiles for their top 50: http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=7962336&content_id=7150995
The Rays signed Matt Bush.
- 16,335
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Oh. I only see 67.
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bkmac
Banned
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So we replace Matsui and now Damon with Nick Johnson and Randy Winn. We could have kept the clearly better, original options for, what, under $15 million (assuming Damon signed for two years).
I'm not sold on our situation in LF either onewearz, so it's not because of your age
. Hopefully Winn can produce. Granderson will be the savior.
I'm not sold on our situation in LF either onewearz, so it's not because of your age
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Im not feeling MLB.com's list a lot of ratings seem based off of past laurels, nobody has Madison Bumgarner throw more than 92 for months, yet he's still in the top 10?
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I would have just posted a link but it's an insider article. I know some people like to read about prospects *shrugs*
I know, I'm only kidding. I know the formatting on ESPN articles is a huge pain in the ##% sometimes. I appreciate the article though.
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Jason Heyward is only one year and a week older than me, I hate reading up on prospects now. They make me realize that I'm almost a grown $#% man now.
