The NBA Stats Thread: The 15-year chain reaction that led to the NBA's current offensive explosion

shoeking2102 said:
Matic pls :wow:
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I remember Steve Kerr shot 52-54% from the arc in one season. But it has to be mentioned that Steve Kerr usually shoots open 3 pointers and rather standing on thw spot. Curry is hitting them out of the dribble and with someone guarding him.
 
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jumpman cbt2 said:
I remember Steve Kerr shot 52-54% from the arc in one season. But it has to be mentioned that Steve Kerr usually shoots open 3 pointers and rather standing on thw spot. Curry is hitting them out of the dribble and with someone guarding him.
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Three point line was shorter during that Kerr year too.
 
shoeking2102 said:
Three point line was shorter during that Kerr year too.
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Right. Was it between 1994 - 1997 that the 3pt line was shortened to the FIBA standard?
I remember that MJ shot 43% in the 1995/1996 season when he mentioned it he can finally hit 3s ^^
 
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No for real I would love to see Steph's shooting splits when he goes right lol 
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Currently working as a Data Analyst. Hoping to break into sports analytics for a major sports franchise.

Will keep an eye out for this thread for ideas and inspiration
 
jumpman cbt2 said:
shoeking2102 said:
Three point line was shorter during that Kerr year too.
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Right. Was it between 1994 - 1997 that the 3pt line was shortened to the FIBA standard?
I remember that MJ shot 43% in the 1995/1996 season when he mentioned it he can finally hit 3s ^^
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Yep, it was 94/95, 95/96 and 96/97 when the line was shorter - mostly.

Before and after it was like now - 22ft in the corners going straight out and then 23'9" - but for those seasons it was just a 22' arc - so closer everywhere except the corners where it was the same. Definitely worth a few percentage points.

Not the same as FIBA though - at the time that was a 20'6" arc - now it is 22'2" (roughly - 6.25m precisely).

The most amazing thing about Steph is how he shoots so well when most of his shots are closely contested - he's not a spot up shooter so that makes his percentage insane.
 
shoeking2102 said:
 
Was going to ask this in the NBA thread but them fools may take it as a sign of disrespect, or me trying to shade him.

What's curry's shooting percentages on going right? It appears that he shoots a lot of his 3's going left, and when I watch the warriors a lot of teams play him straight up, without trying to force him right. Is he just as successful shooting 3's going right?

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I can't look right now for pure data but in the early years he was better from the right side than the left. At least from what I remember.
 
Antidope said:
 
I can't look right now for pure data but in the early years he was better from the right side than the left. At least from what I remember.
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Did some mini number crunching myself.

Picked out two games so far, against the rockets and the Clippers.

Out of the combined 12 threes that he made in those two games, 9 of them came from the left, one was a spot up, two were off of an individual play. (Crossover)

Whenever he did go right, he ended up putting it on the deck and trying to make a play.
 
ai3mac1 said:
 
Currently working as a Data Analyst. Hoping to break into sports analytics for a major sports franchise.

Will keep an eye out for this thread for ideas and inspiration
Click to expand...
Trying to look out for my fellow NT Fam.

Used Teamworkonline for the position I'm in now. Community Relations for the LA Clippers. Don't know if you frequent the site or not, but apply bro. 

http://brooklynnets.teamworkonline.com/teamwork/r.cfm?i=88921 Currently open Basketball Operations Analyst for the Brooklyn Nets

http://monumentalsports.teamworkonline.com/teamwork/jobs/jobs.cfm/Internships?supcat=3140#88646 Basketball Operations internship for the Washington Wizards.
 
shoeking2102 said:
 
Trying to look out for my fellow NT Fam.

Used Teamworkonline for the position I'm in now. Community Relations for the LA Clippers. Don't know if you frequent the site or not, but apply bro. 

http://brooklynnets.teamworkonline.com/teamwork/r.cfm?i=88921 Currently open Basketball Operations Analyst for the Brooklyn Nets

http://monumentalsports.teamworkonline.com/teamwork/jobs/jobs.cfm/Internships?supcat=3140#88646 Basketball Operations internship for the Washington Wizards.
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Thank you so much good sir
 
JPZx said:
? :nerd: http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...berwolves-future-mvp-next-carmelo-anthony-nba
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Print and Go Back ESPN.com: NBA [Print without images]

Sunday, December 13, 2015
Updated: December 14, 10:33 AM ET
Is Andrew Wiggins a future NBA MVP or the next Carmelo Anthony?
By Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton
ESPN Staff Writers

Andrew Wiggins
Is Andrew Wiggins developing into a superstar or something less?

For the past several years, ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton have simulated the kind of discussions that are taking place in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts break down NBA prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers." This season, those conversations are extending beyond the NBA draft to include prospects in their rookie or sophomore seasons.

How is Andrew Wiggins progressing?

Chad Ford: Hey, KP, let's take a little break from the rookies now that we've covered the top four guys and take a look at last year's crop.

So let's start with the guy who went No. 1 last year, Andrew Wiggins of the Minnesota Timberwolves. I was a huge Wiggins fan before last year's draft and, in certain ways, Wiggins has exceeded my early expectations. I thought he'd take a couple of years to get really going, but one month into his sophomore season Wiggins is averaging 20.6 PPG and ranks in the top 20 in the NBA in scoring.

Dig a little deeper and the results don't look nearly as encouraging. Wiggins is an elite athlete and he's finding ways to score. But he's not very efficient, his 3-point shot has regressed this year, he's not nearly as effective on the defensive end as we thought he'd be and overall he looks a bit one-dimensional. What do the advanced stats say?

Kevin Pelton: Overall, Wiggins' advanced stats show progression. For all the promise he showed while winning Rookie of the Year, Wiggins rated slightly worse than replacement level in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. This season, he's easily clearing that mark, almost entirely because of his increase in usage rate.

Last season, Wiggins finished 22.6 percent of the Timberwolves' plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or a turnover. That was already pretty high for a rookie -- Jordan Clarkson (23.1 percent) and Nikola Mirotic (22.9 percent) were the lone rookies with higher usage rates. But Wiggins has dramatically upped his usage this season to 28.5 percent, which puts him in the league's top 20 and not far behind Kevin Durant (29.1 percent). For Wiggins to maintain his level of efficiency while creating so much more offense is actually pretty impressive.

Remember when the knock on Wiggins as a prospect was that he wasn't aggressive enough? You must get a chuckle out of that now.

What about Wiggins' poor defensive RPM?

Ford: There were times when Wiggins was passive in practice and on the court as a freshman at Kansas. He was 18 years old and expectations were really high, so when he didn't play with the emotional intensity of stars like Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett, people piled on.

But when I spent time with Wiggins in Santa Barbara before the draft, it was clear that aggressiveness wasn't the issue. He's never going to be as demonstrably emotional as other elite players, but he wants to win, badly. And he wants to be great.

Here's the thing I find so ironic. Scouts thought Wiggins would struggle offensively, but given his scoring and usage rate, he's actually ahead of the game. Scouts also thought he'd be dominant defensively. His length, athleticism and defensive instincts looked off the charts. However, his numbers in ESPN's real plus-minus look really low. What's causing that? Right now, James Harden has a better defensive RPM than Wiggins. James freaking Harden!

Pelton: Wiggins' defense is an interesting case. In one-on-one situations, his strength and lateral quickness make him a capable defender. According to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, opponents have shot 30 percent against Wiggins on isolation plays, the third-lowest mark among players who have defended at least 20 isolation attempts.

But Wiggins hasn't been nearly as much of a presence as a help defender. And at this point in the season, RPM is heavily influenced by a player's box-score statistics because there's so much noise in adjusted plus-minus.

That's why Wiggins is lagging. His defensive statistics don't reflect his athletic gifts. So far this season, Wiggins is grabbing 6.6 percent of available defensive rebounds -- the 10th-worst mark among players with at least 250 minutes -- and averaging just 0.7 steals per 36 minutes. That's even fewer than guys like Nik Stauskas and J.R. Smith.

Surely Wiggins is better defensively than those statistics would indicate, but there's also no good reason for him to making so few impact plays on defense.

Carmelo Anthony
Is Andrew Wiggins more like Carmelo Anthony than Kevin Durant?

How will Wiggins develop?

Ford: Wiggins really is an interesting case study. Watch him on a nightly basis and he does three or four things that make you think this guy is (or is going to be) a superstar. Every scout I speak to loves him. Virtually all of them think he's going to reach that level. It's hard not to be attracted to his game. And when he's averaging 20-plus points a night and is already helping the Wolves to a surprising start, it's easy to get excited.

The advanced stats aren't nearly as enthusiastic. But this may be a case where the eyes are seeing what Wiggins can become while the numbers are telling us what he is right now.

I think both of us feel like he will retain all of his strengths (explosiveness, length, speed, aggressiveness) and he'll continue to work on his weaknesses. As his basketball intelligence grows and as he gets more work done off the court in the summers, the ceiling remains very, very high.

Kevin, if you were putting together a regimen for what Wiggins needs to work on, what would you say?

Pelton: I think the numbers can also show Wiggins' potential if we look at the most predictive numbers. Specifically, Wiggins' usage rate is a key indicator. Five players since the ABA-NBA merger have posted a usage rate of 28 percent or higher during a season they started at age 20 or younger: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Larry Hughes and Kyrie Irving.

While that group doesn't guarantee stardom, Wiggins is in pretty good company.

Last year, I felt like Durant was the best match for what I saw from Wiggins. Now I'm starting to wonder whether Carmelo makes more sense as a comparison.

FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO similarity tool (fittingly) had Anthony as his best comp entering the season. The difference between those two scenarios, I'd say, is how Durant evolved deep into his NBA career.

Starting with elite scoring, Durant added elite rebounding, developed his playmaking and ultimately became an above-average defender. Those are the things I'd want Wiggins to work on, along with continuing to improve his 3-point shooting.

Building the Timberwolves around Wiggins

Ford: And that's the question for so many of these young players, isn't it? Will they keep working or will they be satisfied with where they are at? Melo plateaued as a player -- he's a heck of a scorer, but if Wiggins doesn't round out his game more than Anthony did, that will be a disappointment.

Meanwhile, Durant continues to add new strengths to his game.

Some of a player's ceiling is obviously attributed to natural abilities. But so much of it has to do with a player's willingness to get back into the gym each offseason and continue to develop his game. So far Wiggins has shown a willingness to work. If that continues, I'd lean closer to Durant. If he becomes complacent with where he's at, Carmelo might be a better comp.

My last question is, how good a fit is Wiggins in Minnesota? When I watch the Wolves, I can't help but walk away thinking this team has a chance to be very, very special. They have young building blocks in Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine and Ricky Rubio along with great bench help from Nemanja Bjelica, Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad.

There's such a great combination of athleticism, size for position, skill sets and basketball IQ. How does this young team project going forward? Are the right pieces in place around Wiggins?

It seems like finding a lights-out 3-point shooter to add to the mix is their biggest need. And if I can wonder aloud, given that Sam Mitchell has an interim tag, who might be the perfect coach to help hyper-charge Wiggins' development? I spoke to several NBA scouts recently who wondered whether Mitchell is the right guy to get the most out of Wiggins.

If John Calipari would ever leave Kentucky, this is where I'd love him to land. I also would love to see Brett Brown here. I think Brown has gotten the most out of a horrible roster in Philly. I would love to see what he could do with better players.

Pelton: In the backcourt, I still think they need to figure out where LaVine fits. After initially announcing that LaVine would start at shooting guard, Mitchell has played him almost exclusively at point guard. If he and Ricky Rubio can play together in the backcourt, the Timberwolves might already have four pieces of their eventual starting lineup in place.

As for a new coach, one obvious choice would be the one who guided Durant's development, Scott Brooks. Whatever his shortcomings as a tactician, Brooks has demonstrated the ability to nurture young talent and help it coalesce into a winning team.
 
So interesting how Pop was all defense, then switched up to all the 3 point shooting and spacing, now flips back to defensive focus. Truly flips back and forth based on his current roster.
 
Not just that, but the Spurs offense this year is more isos and post ups. Coincides with growth of Kawhi and addition of LaMarcus.
 
 Andrew Wiggins is shooting 7% on shots wide open outside of 10 feet.

Only 15% on Catch and Shoot 

7%

15%

Yikes.
 
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