Doesn't mean the FO was right, even with the track record of Running Backs.
Eagles paid $8mil.. I don't think it would take $8mil, I think $7mil over the same number of years (5) gets it done.
But you're not actually going to pay him for 5. You are paying him for the short term with only half guaranteed. If we offered 5year/ $35mil ($17.5mil guaranteed), he's still a Cowboy because it's doubtful he leaves over $1mil per year over 5 years, and really only $500K.
The historic trends mean nothing, we didn't need that same production. We needed solid production. Romo is at the end of the line, Witten is at the end of the line. You will not be able to replace them easily at all. So letting Murray go is monumentally stupid because it knocks us back when we just re-opened a short window.
And with $17.5mil guaranteed, you are paying him for 2 full years, and a partial 3rd year. We saying Murray is not even going to be good for 2 years? With this offensive line? With this quarterback? And these receivers to keep a team honest?
He doesn't have 5 years in him, but we aren't paying him for that... We are paying him for 2.
We paid Jasper Brinkley $2mil, and Darren McFadden $1.15mil. Not adding either of them, and paying Murray $7mil is the right & smart decision. Nor would it handcuff us. And in 2016 it's not like we are in trouble with FAs (Hardy, Claiborne, both Tyrone & Jack Crawford, Bernadeau, Leary, McClain, Dunbar & Mincey).. Hardy is unlikely to keep. Mo will be relatively cheap. No one wants anything to do with McClain. Bernadeau & Leary would be leaving anyway because they'll want more playing time.
So you can get 2 years out of Murray and then just drop him... Or a novel idea.... Trade him for a late round pick to get something for him, assuming he plays at a quality level.
So sure, history says don't pay a running back. But with only having to cover about 40% of the contract, we made a bad mistake.