[h1]Expansion would boost Pac-10 but leave wake of disruption[/h1]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
Feel the ground shifting,college football? It should be shaking under your feet by now. In fact,it might be a good idea to head to the nearest doorway to avoid fallingdebris. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
Caused by crumbling conferences. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
It seems the game, as we know it, is in for another round of expansionearthquakes. With Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott's announcement thisweek that, "we're looking at [expansion] very seriously," it's clearupheaval is on the horizon again. The Big Ten already is two monthsinto exploring the addition of a 12th team (at least). [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
It's only been five years since the ACC ripped apart major collegeathletics when it expanded. But this is bigger. Not since expansion bythe SEC and Big 12 in the 90s could the whims of two power conferencesimpact the sport as much. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
Domino effect? By the beginning of the 2011 season, the Big 12 might belooking for two new members. It's still early in the process, but itlooks like Missouri (to the Big Ten) and Colorado (to the Pac-10) areprime candidates to leave the Big 12. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
"For this round, I think we can expect the Big Ten probably will go to12 and it sounds like the Pac-10 will go to 12, or at least take a longlook at it," said Neal Pilson, a noted sports television consultant andformer president of CBS Sports. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
That's only the beginning of the process. Such a loss would cause the14-year-old Big 12 to look for new members from other vulnerableconferences. And so on, and so on down the institutional food chain.When the ACC expanded in 2005, the aftershocks reached all the way downto the Mid-American Conference. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
Whatever happens, if the Big Ten and Pac-10 expand and each addchampionship games, we could officially welcome in the era of thesuper-conference. Five of the current six BCS leagues would each have12 teams (at least). [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
When it all shakes out, the BCS could be a side issue. The real concernwould be the consolidation of power and money by a group of eliteschools within the BCS. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
For now, here's the fallout both short and long-term: [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
How we got here:The SEC and Big Ten drove the latest round of potential conferenceexpansions with their most recent media deals. In July, the SECfinalized a 15-year, $3 billion deal with ESPN and CBS. The 2½-year-oldBig Ten Network was part of a 25-year, $2.8 million deal in partnershipwith DirecTV and FOX. There is another 10-year deal with ESPN for $1billion. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
No other conference measures up. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
It was more than notable that on Monday, Pac-10 commissioner LarryScott hired former Big Ten deputy commissioner and Big 12 commissionerKevin Weiberg as the Pac-10's chief operating officer. Weiberg spent adecade working with Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany and after eightyears with the Big 12, he returned in 2007 to oversee the Big TenNetwork start-up. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
At the Pac-10, Weiberg will be trying to maximize the Pac-10's TVrevenue through a better television package and/or expansion. Havingworked for Delany, arguably the most powerful man in college sports, heknows where Big Ten expansion is headed. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
"Very rarely does Jim engage in something like this [expansion] withoutit being significant," Weiberg said. "My take is this is a very seriousthing." [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
The most lucrative deal in college sports history puts the SEC in adominant position, both financially and athletically. As the TVcontracts now stand, annual SEC football doormat Vanderbilt makes $7million more a year than Big 12 power Texas ($7 million-$10 million). [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
In a down economy, the have nots have to do something. It is no coincidence that SEC schools have won the last four consecutive BCS title games. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
What it means for everyone else:Playing catch up. The Pac-10's TV deals expire after the 2011-2012season and it will be in negotiations for a new deal within a year.There has been speculation about a possible Pac-10 network (possibly inpartnership with the Big 12 and/or ACC) as well as that expanded leaguefeaturing a championship game. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font][font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
The Big 12's deals are staggered. The current $480 million agreementwith ABC/ESPN goes through 2016. A separate $78 million deal with FOXgoes through 2012. Missouri has been publicly critical of the Big 12'sunequal revenue distribution. More ominous for the Big 12, Missourisaid it would be receptive to interest from the Big Ten. Syracuse,Pittsburgh and Rutgers also remain possibilities for the Big Ten. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
This is the latest round of change brought on by the landmark SupremeCourt decision in 1984 that allowed individual conferences (and teams)to negotiate TV contracts on their own. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
The shuffling essentially began in 1990 when Notre Dame left the oldCollege Football Association to negotiate its own TV deal. Former SECcommissioner Roy Kramer discovered a loophole in the NCAA rules thatallowed his league to invite Arkansas and South Carolina, expand to 12teams and stage a championship game beginning in 1992. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
That move nudged the Southwest Conference and Big Eight to begin talksin the mid-1990s. Apart, the two leagues could not exist financially.The SWC brand already had been damaged by repeated NCAA problems. TheBig Eight took in four SWC schools (Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech,Baylor) to create the Big 12 beginning in 1996. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
The Big 12 became the second conference with a championship game. Thefirst contract, $100 million with ABC and Liberty Media, seems puny bytoday's standards. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
The BCS formed in 1998, further consolidating the earning power of thesix power conferences. In subsequent years, the WAC, MAC, ConferenceUSA and ACC added championship games with varying degrees of success.The Mountain West created its own network (The Mtn.) in September of2006. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
Toward the end of his tenure as Big 12 commissioner (1998-2007),Weiberg was a proponent of a Big 12 network, but the subject never gottraction within the league. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
A network was, "almost overly complicated," to consider but,"strategically for the Big 12, it had value," Weiberg said. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
Maybe that's why the Big Ten has the most successful collegiatenetwork. It is in 73 million homes, taking advantage of a "footprint"that includes a quarter of the country's population in the Big Tenregion. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
"To do a conference network, you really need a success story and youhave that with the Big Ten," Pilson said, "which is the most logicalconference to start a network given the states they're in andpopulation." [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
That record SEC deal came together shortly before the economy tanked.Short of a college football playoff (see below), re-positioning itselfwithin the marketplace (expansion, networks, etc.) is the best way fora conference to add value. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
However, Pilson warns there is a limit to the rights fees for the 66 schools in the BCS. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
"There is a finite number that the networks can pay for collegefootball," Pilson said. "Frankly, television can probably do a nicetelevision package with 30 BCS schools, not 60. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
"I think the magic number is probably 30 or 40. The colleges better becareful that they don't get what they're asking for, [which] iscomplete freedom to make TV deals because TV is basically interested inthe big schools. I'm talking about the bigger schools within the bigconferences." [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
How expansion impacts a college football playoff: ThePac-10 and Big Ten are two traditionally conservative leagues tied tothe Rose Bowl. The conferences and a bowl are all adamantly opposed toa playoff. With each conference potentially playing a championship game-- a huge step in itself -- it's hard envisioning those conferencepresidents signing off on a playoff that could expand the season evenfurther. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
Short answer: Super conferences are bad for you playoff proponents. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
How it will shake out:It's way early but, as mentioned, Missouri to the Big Ten and Coloradoto the Pac-10 seem to be the early favorites. Big 12 commissioner DanBeebe already has indicated there wasn't much the conference to do todeter a team from leaving. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
That still leaves the Pac-10 with one more team to add, but first,let's eliminate Texas and Notre Dame from the equation. Either schoolwould be a slam dunk for the Big Ten -- if they were interested. Butmultiple sources say that Notre Dame is committed to its independentstatus. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
Texas was mentioned in the 1990s as a possible Pac-10 addition beforethe Big 12 was formed. The geographic limitations still exist -- Texasisn't contiguous to any state with a Big Ten or Pac-10 school. Plus,the Big Ten shares its revenue equally. One reason Missouri favors theBig Ten is the Big 12's unbalanced revenue sharing formula. It's also abig reason Texas would favor staying in the Big 12 because as it is onTV more often, Texas makes significantly more than, say, Baylor. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
In the Pac-10, Utah, BYU and San Diego State have been mentioned alongwith Colorado. Both Utah and BYU could deliver the Salt Lake Citymarket. San Diego State is struggling mightily in football but bringingthe Pac-10 to the market would create a seamless coverage area for theconference from Seattle to the Mexican border. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
Neither Fresno State nor Boise State has the market or earning power ofthe other four schools to be considered in the Pac-10. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
The Big East has been nervous about the loss of any combination ofSyracuse/Pittsburgh/Rutgers to the Big Ten. It might be easy to ruleout Pittsburgh because the conference already has a presence inPennsylvania with Penn State. Pilson isn't the only one who saysneither Syracuse nor Rutgers deliver the New York market for the BigTen. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
The Big East has financial penalties in place for schools that wouldleave the conference. However, those are meant more to bolster theexisting schools financially than to keep a school from leaving. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
That leaves Missouri, in a state that shares a border with Iowa andIllinois, homes of Big Ten schools. In addition, it has been ratherpublic about its academic profile being more of a match for the Big Tenthe Big 12. That fact wasn't lost on Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon. [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
"I'm not going to say anything bad about the Big 12," Nixon was quotedas saying in December, "but when you compare Oklahoma State toNorthwestern, when you compare Texas Tech to Wisconsin, I mean, youbegin looking at educational possibilities that are worth looking at." [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica] [/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica]
That comment could add some rancor to the next Big 12 meeting. Thereare already tremors rippling through the sport. Have your feet firmlyplanted. Whether it's the meeting room or the sideline, the ground isabout to shake. [/font]