I'm floored that this is all the Rays got for David Price -- as are some of the execs I've talked to so far -- and I can't imagine that the return this winter would have been any worse. The three-way trade that sends Price to Detroit, Nick Franklin, Drew Smyly and Tigers prospect Willy Adames to Tampa, and Austin Jackson to Seattle, nets out as an outstanding move for the Tigers and a solid exchange for the Mariners. But for Tampa Bay, it may end up as a huge missed opportunity to restock their system.
[+] EnlargeDavid Price
AP Photo/Chris O'Meara
It's been a while since David Price hasn't faced almost daily trade speculation.
The Tigers didn't need another starter, but Price is certainly better than Smyly -- who's been very good this year -- both looking at the regular season and in lining up the postseason rotation. Price can work deeper into games than Smyly and is less likely to run into fatigue in late September from a full-season workload, taking pressure off a bullpen that has been Detroit's only real weakness this year. And he gives them yet another playoff-worthy starter who lines up well against any other team's No. 1 starter. The team's a little worse off in the lineup without Jackson, but that's a small matter to offset compared to the gain of Price from now through the end of next year, after which they can re-sign him or take a draft pick.
The move makes Justin Verlander the Tigers' fifth-best starter right now, although they're not likely to use him as such; I'd have more confidence in Rick Porcello as the fourth starter in the playoff rotation right now than Verlander, given his struggles.
Rays fans who at least could console themselves with hopes of a Wil Myers/Jake Odorizzi level of return in an eventual Price deal had to be disappointed to see the total return today. Smyly, one of my preseason breakout picks for 2014, has shown a much-improved curveball as a starter this year to go with his cutter, giving him two above-average major league pitches along with above-average control, and he profiles as a solid midrotation starter, 3 WAR or so a year, very valuable while he's cheap, but not someone to anchor your rotation.
Nick Franklin has been terrible in limited major league time over the past 15 months, but I still project him as at least an average regular at second base, as the Rays are likely to consider his defense insufficient for shortstop. He's a switch-hitter but needs to stop trying to hit right-handed; he has an unorthodox left-handed swing that has produced power but not high averages. Franklin is still just 23 and ready to play against right-handed pitchers. If the Rays solve his issues against lefties, he could be an above-average everyday player, but that's a significant hurdle to overcome. They also added 18-year-old low-A shortstop Willy Adames, who likely moves to shortstop and has some upside with the bat, more in the hit tool than power. He's a lottery ticket in the scope of the deal.
The Mariners had no room for Franklin, their second first-round pick in 2009, and seemed to have lost faith in his ability to play short or second every day for them, so flipping him for an every day centerfielder makes sense from a perspective of need, although it's not a great use of value. Jackson is a free agent after next year, and outside of the phenomenal 2012 season -- powered by career highs in BABIP and walk rate, without any sustainable reasons -- has been about a three-win player, and his defense is heading in the wrong direction as he gets older and slows down. If Franklin becomes just an average regular, he'll be a much better value than Jackson considering service time and salary, but Jackson's a surer bet and fits a current need for the M's.
