A week ago, a rival executive forecast an elbow injury for Cliff Lee, citing different developing factors the way a meteorologist reads weather conditions. Lee has basically had a career free of arm injuries, the rival exec noted, and has thrown a ton of innings, over 2,000. When Lee complained about a lingering discomfort earlier this season, soon after he went on the disabled list, that was the real red flag. "You watch, he's a Tommy John injury waiting to happen," the exec said. "All the indicators are there."
And sure enough, Lee walked off the mound Thursday night after trying to execute a cutter and gestured toward his elbow, saying he was done. He has visits to doctors in front of him, but Lee's season may well be over, and there's no chance of him being traded with the Phillies owing him $48 million over the next 14 months.
Lee had seemed to be an August candidate for a deal, but that is over. Other players may get traded in August, or at least be discussed in deals as they either clear waivers or get claimed.
Such as these guys:
Alex Rios, Rangers
There was actually some surprise among rival executives that Rios didn't move, but teams were probably less aggressive than the Rangers expected because Rios hasn't hit home runs this year -- just four in 395 at-bats, while playing in a hitter-friendly park. He is batting .304, however, and you'd have to figure that some AL contender will claim him. Texas stood pat and has 2015 in mind.
Marlon Byrd, Phillies
He's a right-handed power hitter who has been hitting homers this year, and even with a vesting option for $8 million for 2016 after an $8 million deal for next year, it’s a virtual lock that he’ll be claimed. Whether the Phillies make something of it with the claiming team is a whole other issue.
Cole Hamels, Phillies
He's owed at least $90 million for the 2015-18 seasons and is throwing the ball extremely well right now. It would make sense for the Giants to place a blocking claim on him so that, at the very least, the Dodgers can’t make a move on the left-hander. But whether it's the Giants or the Dodgers or the Red Sox, somebody will claim him, and we will have 48 hours of Cole Hamels waiver drama in August before the Phillies pull him back, in all likelihood.
By the way: The Mets should put in a claim on him, to block a division rival from conducting business. And who knows, if the Phillies actually listened to an offer, Hamels would be a great add for the Mets at this stage of their rebuilding, as a leader of the staff.
By the way, II: The Phillies should at least have a conversation with the claiming team about what they would offer in trade. By the time the Phillies are really good again -- maybe in the last years of this decade -- Hamels will either be overvalued in his salary or he will be retired. They might as well swap him for prospects to accelerate the franchise turnaround.
Neal Cotts, Rangers
He's having an OK season overall, and he's owed about $700,000 for the rest of this season. He could be among the brigade of relievers that usually change teams in August.
Garrett Jones, Marlins
If Miami hangs in the NL East race, they'll keep him. If not, he might be an interesting player for a contender, given his $5 million salary for the season and his .795 OPS against right-handed pitchers.
Nate Schierholtz, Cubs
He's hitting under .200 and had only nine hits in July, but he's experienced and could move to some team that is hit with an injury.
Mat Latos, Reds
As Jayson Stark reported, the Reds have been open to discussing him, and Latos, 26, is arbitration-eligible this winter. It might make sense for the Braves to place a claim, given that Ervin Santana will likely depart as a free agent after this season.
Ryan Ludwick, Reds
It all depends on how he's swinging the bat at the time he passes through waivers, but Cincinnati could be ready to move him sometime -- and there aren’t a lot of decent right-handed bats.
Joaquin Benoit, Padres
He won’t get through waivers, for sure -- the Dodgers will claim him, or perhaps before that, the Giants. It seems unlikely San Diego will trade him now, but you never know.
David Ross, Red Sox
A perfect add for some contender that loses a catcher to injury this month. He's cheap, he's experienced and he handles pitchers well.
Josh Willingham, Twins
He's owed about $2.3 million for the rest of this season and he's got right-handed pop, but he's not hitting. A good bet to get through waivers.
Adam Dunn, White Sox
[+] EnlargeAdam Dunn
Brian D. Kersey/Getty Images
Adam Dunn still gets on base and still hits home runs.
The DH is owed about $5 million for the rest of this season, in the last year of his contract, and he'll probably finish the year with Chicago. But if you see a slugger go down for an AL team -- one of the Jays, or the Orioles, Carlos Beltran, or Oakland -- Dunn might be an interesting claim, because he still draws walks (he's got a .362 on-base percentage) and still hits homers (17 this year, in 367 plate appearances).
Gordon Beckham, White Sox
He's owed a little over $1 million for the rest of this season, as he heads toward a possible non-tender this winter. Might not be a bad fit for the Giants if they can't find another second baseman.
John Danks, White Sox
He's owed $14 million for each of the next two seasons, and some rival teams had some level of interest in him.
Ben Zobrist, Rays
He's got a good team-friendly option for $7.5 million next season, so he will get claimed on waivers -- perhaps by the Mariners, who would be first in line among the contending teams, or the Yankees, who need middle infield coverage for next season. The chances that a deal gets worked out would seem to be slim; the Rays might have a better shot at making a trade in the offseason, if they so choose.
Trade deadline stuff
1. At the end of one of the busiest and most aggressive trade-deadline days ever, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro suggested that rival executives weren’t aggressive enough in pursuing his players. From Todd Zolecki’s story:
"Not disappointed," Amaro said. "More surprised that there wasn't more aggressive action from the other end. We have some pretty good baseball players here."
Which is sort of an interesting way to look at it. That means that the Phillies' rebuilding hinges on the work of rival general managers.
Amaro needs to get real, writes David Murphy. The Phillies need radical action, writes Bob Brookover.
2. The respect that the industry has for the Rays' trade work frames the pervasive surprise in the industry that they did not get more for David Price. A lot of rival officials say they think the Rays could have kept Price for the rest of this season, continued to compete with their Cy Young winner and gotten close to the same value in a deal in the winter.
3. The Cardinals have had all kinds of trouble with starting pitchers needing relief in the fifth or sixth innings this summer, and John Lackey gives them a proven veteran who will work to take the ball into the late innings. And the Cardinals are in a better position to deal with Lackey's slated $500,000 salary for next season than the Red Sox were, perhaps by approaching him about a moderate-sized extension. It could be good business to offer him a two-year deal for 2016-17 for something in the range of $24 million to $30 million, with the corollary idea of spreading it out over the next three seasons.
4. The Blue Jays didn't do much but there really wasn't a magic move for them to make. They could be in position to make a waiver claim on Jason Hammel (although the Yankees could drop a claim in front of them, given the current standings.)
5. The Yankees added a whole bunch of small upgrades to their 2014 playoff chances in the past month, from Chase Headley to Brandon McCarthy to Esmil Rogers to Martin Prado to Stephen Drew to Chris Capuano, and surrendered just one decent prospect in Pete O’Brien. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn’t, but they tried, and going forward, the Yankees can plug Prado in wherever he is needed next year -- second base, perhaps, or third, or right field. The Yankees looked at what Omar Infante signed for after last season, about $10 million a year in a three-year deal, and figured that adding Prado, who will make $11 million for each of the next two seasons, made sense.
Ken Davidoff thinks the Yankees are desperate.
6. I'd take the Tigers' rotation over Oakland's rotation, but the Athletics have the deeper team, with the better bullpen. Rajai Davis takes over in center field for the Tigers, which takes Detroit down a notch defensively. (Although Austin Jackson is not rated among the better defensive center fielders this season.)
7. The Orioles traded for Andrew Miller, giving Buck Showalter another great bullpen option.
8. Spoke to executives with other teams who already assume the Red Sox will be serious bidders on James Shields in the winter, given their need for an innings-eater and staff leader.
9. Austin Jackson says he kind of knew what was going on when he was pulled off the field.
10. Oakland leads the majors in runs scored, with an offense that truly is a sum of its parts, rather than being built on the strength of one or two great hitters. But Yoenis Cespedes was one of the team’s best hitters, and certainly the most dangerous hitter against good pitching, which is why the deal carries some risk for the Athletics. Up until now, it has seemed as if the team could weather an injury to any player and continue to generate a ton of runs. But now, with the depth of the lineup having taken a hit, one more significant injury -- to a Josh Donaldson or a Brandon Moss -- and the whole thing might look a lot different.
11. The Royals stood pat, writes Andy McCullough.
12. Joel Sherman has five takeaways from the crazy day.
13. The Cardinals were really shaken up by the trade of Joe Kelly and Allen Craig, writes Derrick Goold. This was a loud wake-up call, writes Bernie Miklasz.
Oscar Taveras homered and the Cardinals won. With Craig gone, there is no reason to hold Taveras out of the every-day lineup now.
14. Kurt Suzuki got an extension with the Twins.
15. The Brewers' trade for Gerardo Parra gives them some defense and some depth.
16. The Braves got a couple of guys.
17. The most prospect-laden trade resulted in the Marlins landing Jarred Cosart.
18. For David Price, there was absolute sadness.
19. The Astros traded a pitcher with local ties.
20. The Padres traded Chris Denorfia.
21. The Mariners improved, but Larry Stone wonders whether that’s enough.
AL West
• Oakland is trying to live in the present, writes John Shea.
• Ann Killion writes that the A's are World Series favorites.
• The Angels believe they have what it takes, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
AL Central
• The Tigers have three Cy Young winners.
• The Royals can blame themselves for being trade deadline losers, writes Sam Mellinger.
• The Tigers got David Price and that might mean the end of the Indians in 2014, writes Paul Hoynes.
• The White Sox stood pat at the deadline.
AL East
• Jon Lester deserved better from the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox are poised to move Xander Bogaerts back to shortstop. These trades offer few clues about the direction of the Red Sox, writes Dan Shaughnessy.
• The Blue Jays stood pat.
NL West
• The D-backs' focus is on the future.
• Arizona’s trades were not the exciting kind, writes Dan Bickley.
• Carlos Gonzalez has a sore ankle.
• Brian Sabean says the trade deadline market was too expensive.
• The Dodgers made the decision to keep their prospects, writes Bill Plaschke. Let’s face it: The dynamics of the division had changed quickly. The pressure has shifted from the shoulders of the Dodgers to the Giants, because of how each team has been playing lately.
• The Dodgers hope that Matt Kemp is going all retro on them.
NL Central
• The Pirates didn’t make any deals. They do their best work in August. Buying trust is a must for Pittsburgh.
• The Reds did not make a move.
• Walt Jocketty called around, but made no connections, writes Hal McCoy.
• The Cubs got a catching prospect, writes Mark Gonzales.
• The trades might hasten the promotion of Javier Baez, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
NL East
• The Nationals made a move for Asdrubal Cabrera, as Adam Kilgore writes.
• Jonathan Papelbon, who has a vesting option for 2016 that is built on his ability to remain a closer in 2015, insists he will only be a closer.
• The Mets are looking to the offseason to make moves.
• The Braves addressed both of their deadline priorities, writes David O’Brien. They were swept by the Dodgers, losing to a tall left-hander.
Lastly
• Clayton Kershaw dominated again, pitching another complete game against the Braves.
From ESPN Stats & Information, Kershaw, by the numbers:
33. That's the percentage of batters he's striking out this season. That's on pace to be the highest of any pitcher since Randy Johnson struck out 37 percent in 2001.
114. That's how many strikeouts Kershaw has gotten with his breaking ball this season, good for most in the National League. Hitters are chasing 46 percent of his breaking balls out of the strike zone, the highest rate in the majors.
13. That's how many consecutive games Kershaw has with at least seven strikeouts allowing three runs or fewer, the second-longest streak in the past 100 years, trailing only Randy Johnson, who had 14 straight games like that in 1999.
• There will be a lot of talk today about the rule regarding blocking home plate after what happened in Miami last night.
• The Athletics are going ahead with a Cespedes T-shirt giveaway on Saturday, for a game that will be started by Jon Lester.
And today will be better than yesterday.