2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Originally Posted by abovelegit1

Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32

^

This that from FG or BR?

Neither.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?
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I won't say I'll deny Verlander MVP but I think in the future they should make it a little clearer and let MVP just be for hitters. At least have it defined so you don't have such a split down the middle.

The Josh Johnson thing, Marlins had to shut him down. Kid has a history of bad injuries and they need him to be the Opening Day starter when they open up the new stadium next year.

Champ, some might not even be ready to give Verlander the Cy Young...

Spoiler [+]
Earlier this summer, I wrote a piece for Insider based on the Ace Barometer, which is a quick-and-dirty tool I came up with that attempted to use statistics to determine what constitutes a true ace.

The piece received some healthy criticism in the comments section because CC Sabathia didn't fit the criteria. Whether or not he was motivated by what I wrote (and I'm guessing he wasn't), Sabathia has been pitching as if he's out to prove me wrong, going 9-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 118 strikeouts -- to go with only 21 walks -- since that piece was published in late June.

Simply put: The hefty lefty is having his best season since 2008, when he posted a 1.65 ERA in 17 second-half starts for the Milwaukee Brewers. Today, ESPN.com turns its focus to the 2011 awards with a Cover It Live discussion. And although most of the baseball world has pretty much anointed Justin Verlander as the 2011 American League Cy Young winner, Sabathia's case is a lot stronger than most people realize.

Let's start with the numbers. On a basic level, Verlander has the edge with a 2.34 ERA and 224 strikeouts in 223 innings; all three figures lead the league. Sabathia is a step behind with a 2.97 ERA and 211 K's in 218 1/3 innings. He trails only Verlander in the latter two categories on the AL leaderboard. But when put into proper context, you can see that CC has performed better this season.

For starters, Yankee Stadium is a much tougher place to pitch in than Comerica Park. The average ballpark has a park factor of 100, which is Comerica's three-year number, according to Baseball Reference. In other words, it's a neutral park. Yankee Stadium, however, has a park factor of 107. (The higher the number, the more it favors the hitter.) Remarkably, Sabathia has allowed fewer home runs (15) than Verlander (20) despite the fact that his home park features Little League right-field dimensions comparable to what you'd find in Williamsport, Pa.

As good as Verlander has been, he's also been incredibly fortunate on balls in play. His .238 BABIP is the third lowest in the AL this year, and it would tie for the seventh lowest for an ERA qualifier in the AL this century. As a result of this, as well as park factors, Sabathia actually has the lowest FIP in the AL at 2.76; Verlander is third at 2.88.

This all suggests that Sabathia has performed better than Verlander this year but that it's things out of his control -- such as his home park and bad defense/luck -- that have resulted in his allowing 16 more runs this season. And none of these numbers takes into account the biggest thing that Sabathia has going for him: strength of competition.

The top five teams in the AL in runs scored are the Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers. (These are also the top five in terms of wOBA.) Although Sabathia never has to face his own team, two of the other four are in his team's division. The Tigers are no slouches on offense, either, so Verlander also never has to regularly face one of the AL's top offenses. The result? Sabathia has 13 starts against the AL's top five offenses and Verlander has just six -- a difference not accounted for in any metric. And although Sabathia hasn't been great against the Sox, that's what happens when you face great lineups, you get hit. For example, Verlander has allowed six runs in 12 innings against the Yankees this year. And something tells me that if he had twice as many starts against the best offenses, which would still be fewer than Sabathia has, his ERA would go up a few points. (By the way, Sabathia leads all AL pitchers with 6.7 WAR, if you're into that sort of thing.)

One could try to make a philosophical argument and say, "But Verlander is carrying his staff!" The problem with that is that the Yankees' staff after Sabathia is just as pedestrian. Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova have had surprisingly good years, but if you had to win one game tomorrow, would you really take any of those guys over Max Scherzer or Doug Fister?

It's almost certain that Verlander will win the Cy Young award, and he'd be a fine choice. But it just goes to show how much a narrative can take over -- people seemed to have decided that Verlander is the winner even though he and Sabathia are incredibly close in terms of value. When put in the proper context, Sabathia has been every bit as good as, if not better than, Verlander this season.
 
I won't say I'll deny Verlander MVP but I think in the future they should make it a little clearer and let MVP just be for hitters. At least have it defined so you don't have such a split down the middle.

The Josh Johnson thing, Marlins had to shut him down. Kid has a history of bad injuries and they need him to be the Opening Day starter when they open up the new stadium next year.

Champ, some might not even be ready to give Verlander the Cy Young...

Spoiler [+]
Earlier this summer, I wrote a piece for Insider based on the Ace Barometer, which is a quick-and-dirty tool I came up with that attempted to use statistics to determine what constitutes a true ace.

The piece received some healthy criticism in the comments section because CC Sabathia didn't fit the criteria. Whether or not he was motivated by what I wrote (and I'm guessing he wasn't), Sabathia has been pitching as if he's out to prove me wrong, going 9-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 118 strikeouts -- to go with only 21 walks -- since that piece was published in late June.

Simply put: The hefty lefty is having his best season since 2008, when he posted a 1.65 ERA in 17 second-half starts for the Milwaukee Brewers. Today, ESPN.com turns its focus to the 2011 awards with a Cover It Live discussion. And although most of the baseball world has pretty much anointed Justin Verlander as the 2011 American League Cy Young winner, Sabathia's case is a lot stronger than most people realize.

Let's start with the numbers. On a basic level, Verlander has the edge with a 2.34 ERA and 224 strikeouts in 223 innings; all three figures lead the league. Sabathia is a step behind with a 2.97 ERA and 211 K's in 218 1/3 innings. He trails only Verlander in the latter two categories on the AL leaderboard. But when put into proper context, you can see that CC has performed better this season.

For starters, Yankee Stadium is a much tougher place to pitch in than Comerica Park. The average ballpark has a park factor of 100, which is Comerica's three-year number, according to Baseball Reference. In other words, it's a neutral park. Yankee Stadium, however, has a park factor of 107. (The higher the number, the more it favors the hitter.) Remarkably, Sabathia has allowed fewer home runs (15) than Verlander (20) despite the fact that his home park features Little League right-field dimensions comparable to what you'd find in Williamsport, Pa.

As good as Verlander has been, he's also been incredibly fortunate on balls in play. His .238 BABIP is the third lowest in the AL this year, and it would tie for the seventh lowest for an ERA qualifier in the AL this century. As a result of this, as well as park factors, Sabathia actually has the lowest FIP in the AL at 2.76; Verlander is third at 2.88.

This all suggests that Sabathia has performed better than Verlander this year but that it's things out of his control -- such as his home park and bad defense/luck -- that have resulted in his allowing 16 more runs this season. And none of these numbers takes into account the biggest thing that Sabathia has going for him: strength of competition.

The top five teams in the AL in runs scored are the Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers. (These are also the top five in terms of wOBA.) Although Sabathia never has to face his own team, two of the other four are in his team's division. The Tigers are no slouches on offense, either, so Verlander also never has to regularly face one of the AL's top offenses. The result? Sabathia has 13 starts against the AL's top five offenses and Verlander has just six -- a difference not accounted for in any metric. And although Sabathia hasn't been great against the Sox, that's what happens when you face great lineups, you get hit. For example, Verlander has allowed six runs in 12 innings against the Yankees this year. And something tells me that if he had twice as many starts against the best offenses, which would still be fewer than Sabathia has, his ERA would go up a few points. (By the way, Sabathia leads all AL pitchers with 6.7 WAR, if you're into that sort of thing.)

One could try to make a philosophical argument and say, "But Verlander is carrying his staff!" The problem with that is that the Yankees' staff after Sabathia is just as pedestrian. Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova have had surprisingly good years, but if you had to win one game tomorrow, would you really take any of those guys over Max Scherzer or Doug Fister?

It's almost certain that Verlander will win the Cy Young award, and he'd be a fine choice. But it just goes to show how much a narrative can take over -- people seemed to have decided that Verlander is the winner even though he and Sabathia are incredibly close in terms of value. When put in the proper context, Sabathia has been every bit as good as, if not better than, Verlander this season.
 
^ Good article. Very strong argument for CC, and I've never discounted him from the race. However, one thing specifically from the article that sticks out to me is the known fact Yankee starters get the most run support day in and day out. Maybe I'm looking too much into it, but that has to be comforting psychologically for a pitcher knowing there's leeway for a mistake or two. 
Another key argument I have is that the Yanks are probably still in the playoffs without Sabathia's contributions. Yes, I firmly believe their potent offense could carry them to an October berth. On the flip side I can't say the same for Detroit without Verlander. I've stated before and again, Verlander turning the corner and elevating his game to the next level truly put the Tigers over the top in the AL Central. Let's remember this was a division where Minnesota, Chicago, and Cleveland all at some point were seemingly realistic potential division winners. It's not quite as dramatic as CC literally carrying Milwaukee to the playoffs, but Verlander's situation is pretty similar in terms of individual value. 
 
^ Good article. Very strong argument for CC, and I've never discounted him from the race. However, one thing specifically from the article that sticks out to me is the known fact Yankee starters get the most run support day in and day out. Maybe I'm looking too much into it, but that has to be comforting psychologically for a pitcher knowing there's leeway for a mistake or two. 
Another key argument I have is that the Yanks are probably still in the playoffs without Sabathia's contributions. Yes, I firmly believe their potent offense could carry them to an October berth. On the flip side I can't say the same for Detroit without Verlander. I've stated before and again, Verlander turning the corner and elevating his game to the next level truly put the Tigers over the top in the AL Central. Let's remember this was a division where Minnesota, Chicago, and Cleveland all at some point were seemingly realistic potential division winners. It's not quite as dramatic as CC literally carrying Milwaukee to the playoffs, but Verlander's situation is pretty similar in terms of individual value. 
 
Originally Posted by ChampCruThik


Nats making a bad move pitching Strasburg IMO. In contrast, Marlins are wise to shut down Josh Johnson. They said his injury might have been caused by bad posture.
TJ recovery is normally 11-12 months according to Dr. James Andrews, so if he's ready, why wouldn't he pitch? What's leaving him on the shelf going to do for him?
 
Originally Posted by ChampCruThik


Nats making a bad move pitching Strasburg IMO. In contrast, Marlins are wise to shut down Josh Johnson. They said his injury might have been caused by bad posture.
TJ recovery is normally 11-12 months according to Dr. James Andrews, so if he's ready, why wouldn't he pitch? What's leaving him on the shelf going to do for him?
 
^ Because there isn't much to gain this year. Team won't make the playoffs and if anything, it puts Strasburg at risk for another injury.

The positive is that he can get some work in so that he's good to go for next year, but does that benefit really outweigh the risks?
 
^ Because there isn't much to gain this year. Team won't make the playoffs and if anything, it puts Strasburg at risk for another injury.

The positive is that he can get some work in so that he's good to go for next year, but does that benefit really outweigh the risks?
 
Are the Nats projected to make the playoffs next year? If not, should they then leave him on the shelf because there "isn't much to gain?"

Since he's ready to go right now according to his doctors, what risk is there from letting him pitch that wouldn't be there next season?
 
Are the Nats projected to make the playoffs next year? If not, should they then leave him on the shelf because there "isn't much to gain?"

Since he's ready to go right now according to his doctors, what risk is there from letting him pitch that wouldn't be there next season?
 
That comparison isn't a good one. There's less than a month left in the season. Just because the doctor's cleared him doesn't mean he'd be better served resting up some more and easing back into in the offseason.

And no matter what, he'll always be at risk of injury if you put it that way, but there is no chance for any playoffs right now whereas next year you have a full season to play yourself into the postseason.
 
That comparison isn't a good one. There's less than a month left in the season. Just because the doctor's cleared him doesn't mean he'd be better served resting up some more and easing back into in the offseason.

And no matter what, he'll always be at risk of injury if you put it that way, but there is no chance for any playoffs right now whereas next year you have a full season to play yourself into the postseason.
 
He'd be better served resting more? Is that your professional opinion?

He's healthy, so he should pitch for the purposes of building up his arm, accumulating innings of work and experience, learning to pitch more w/ the 2 seamer and down in the zone for contact, etc. One doesn't get "more healthy" or less vulnerable to getting injured by resting after TJS. And he has eased back into it; his rehab schedule went to plan, and now he's ready to pitch.
As an aside, according to Keith Law the ASMI has not found anything to suggest that certain mechanics predisposes a pitcher to injury. I'll take his (and their) word for it. 
 
He'd be better served resting more? Is that your professional opinion?

He's healthy, so he should pitch for the purposes of building up his arm, accumulating innings of work and experience, learning to pitch more w/ the 2 seamer and down in the zone for contact, etc. One doesn't get "more healthy" or less vulnerable to getting injured by resting after TJS. And he has eased back into it; his rehab schedule went to plan, and now he's ready to pitch.
As an aside, according to Keith Law the ASMI has not found anything to suggest that certain mechanics predisposes a pitcher to injury. I'll take his (and their) word for it. 
 
Relative to his career, the 4 or 5 starts he'll get this month aren't that imperative for his long-term growth as a pitcher. He can work on those things next year. Whether he can't get "more healthy" or not. It's the fact that he isn't exposed to any chance of injury or misfortune. If he's injured, it could've been avoided if he just sat out the rest of the year and no one was worried about getting him that 25 innings of work. It isn't that neccessary.

Keith Law may be right, but there are still pitches who definitely appear to be predisposed. Whether it's mechanics or just somone with a lot of misfotune, the risk is still there and its not worth the minimal action he'll see to end this season.
 
Relative to his career, the 4 or 5 starts he'll get this month aren't that imperative for his long-term growth as a pitcher. He can work on those things next year. Whether he can't get "more healthy" or not. It's the fact that he isn't exposed to any chance of injury or misfortune. If he's injured, it could've been avoided if he just sat out the rest of the year and no one was worried about getting him that 25 innings of work. It isn't that neccessary.

Keith Law may be right, but there are still pitches who definitely appear to be predisposed. Whether it's mechanics or just somone with a lot of misfotune, the risk is still there and its not worth the minimal action he'll see to end this season.
 
The only risk is the risk of injury that lies with every athlete. He's 100%, and wouldn't be pitching if he was anything less than that. Waiting till next year won't make him 105% or something. If he does gets injured in one of his next starts it will simply be because of Fate.

The ~50 total inning of work he will accumulate this season will give him a basis for next season. Big jumps in IP from season to season are detrimental to a pitcher's health and development, so If he didn't pitch at all this season and then pitched 100+ innings next season than THAT would predispose him to injury.
 
The only risk is the risk of injury that lies with every athlete. He's 100%, and wouldn't be pitching if he was anything less than that. Waiting till next year won't make him 105% or something. If he does gets injured in one of his next starts it will simply be because of Fate.

The ~50 total inning of work he will accumulate this season will give him a basis for next season. Big jumps in IP from season to season are detrimental to a pitcher's health and development, so If he didn't pitch at all this season and then pitched 100+ innings next season than THAT would predispose him to injury.
 
Originally Posted by abovelegit1

The only risk is the risk of injury that lies with every athlete. He's 100%, and wouldn't be pitching if he was anything less than that. Waiting till next year won't make him 105% or something. 

  

That's pretty much what I said, but with different wording. And I'm not saying he will get more healthy, but sitting out does eliminate any chance of him getting hurt again, even if it is only that risk that belies with every athlete. The risk is still there and he's your star pitcher going forward so i'd forget it.

I still don't think pitching right now makes any substantial difference. Whether it's 50 innings this year compared to 0 innings this year and a full season next year, the disparity is still big and might have a minimal impact.

Generally there are two schools of thought on this issue. That's the side I choose.
 
Originally Posted by abovelegit1

The only risk is the risk of injury that lies with every athlete. He's 100%, and wouldn't be pitching if he was anything less than that. Waiting till next year won't make him 105% or something. 

  

That's pretty much what I said, but with different wording. And I'm not saying he will get more healthy, but sitting out does eliminate any chance of him getting hurt again, even if it is only that risk that belies with every athlete. The risk is still there and he's your star pitcher going forward so i'd forget it.

I still don't think pitching right now makes any substantial difference. Whether it's 50 innings this year compared to 0 innings this year and a full season next year, the disparity is still big and might have a minimal impact.

Generally there are two schools of thought on this issue. That's the side I choose.
 
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