mr marcus
Banned
- 26,572
- 5,415
The nuances of pitching is why I even watch a lot of MLB games
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
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you know what i say if you wanna speed up the game, intentional walks, instead of making the guy throw 4 pitches just toss one and send the guy to first. then again, it takes away the rare chance the pitcher throws a meatball that gets hit like miguel cabrera did a few years ago.
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
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Agree about the intentional walk.
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I don't mind the length of games but some hitters get carried away. They shouldn't be allowed to do all that BS they do after every pitch. It's ******* dumb.
Intentional walks have always bothered me. They should just let the pitcher throw up a sign and one pitch. Maybe that'll never happen because they still throw wild pitches sometimes.
Intentional walks have always bothered me. They should just let the pitcher throw up a sign and one pitch. Maybe that'll never happen because they still throw wild pitches sometimes.
- 74,910
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The hitter doing that stuff is part of the nuances of hitting to me. That psychological game between pitcher and hitter.
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ortiz agrees
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Minnie Minoso was the first baseball player to ever autograph something for me, may he RIP.
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LETS GO.
jumpman ii
Banned
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- 907
The ending 
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Yeah yeah I'm sure you got wood.
jumpman ii
Banned
- 4,353
- 907
^Maybe 1 day you'll experience that 
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^Maybe 1 day you'll experience that
Pause
- 30,498
- 5,958
^Maybe 1 day you'll experience that
You're gonna be Jumpman III pretty quick
jumpman ii
Banned
- 4,353
- 907
^Maybe 1 day you'll experience that
You're gonna be Jumpman III pretty quick
2015 MLB Draft Rankings, Way-Too-Early Edition.
Scouting the Top 2015 July 2nd Prospects.
Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale.
Top 200 Prospects: The Process and Introduction.
The FanGraphs Top 200 Prospect List.
EDIT, Sept 28: Since this article was published, Bickford chose a school (Southern Nevada JC, the same school as Bryce Harper) which I note in his blurb and one of the principles in the Aiken/Nix mess, lefty Mac Marshall, transferred to a junior college after a few weeks at LSU.
Marshall is joining high school teammate Isiah Gilliam (mentioned in the extra names below the rankings) at Florida panhandle juco powerhouse Chipola JC after both opted not to sign with the Astros and Cubs, respectively, after leaving another powerhouse program, Atlanta-area Parkview High School. Marshall would slot 46th on this list, but I didn’t change the rankings, just put a blurb for Marshall in the spot where he would be on the list if I re-ranked it.
Some housekeeping notes to clarify and expound on the rankings:
– Brady Aiken still hasn’t signed and nothing concrete has been announced to that end, so he’s in the 2015 class until further notice. Like Aiken, Phil Bickford’s school is unknown at the moment, but both are expected to go to junior colleges out west.
– This draft class is shallow at the top. The top 3 players are a tier and then the players right behind them would usually be around 10th in most classes. There’s still plenty of time for new players to emerge or known players to get better, but at this point things are a little light.
– The Astros are once again a big story, as they have the 2nd overall pick (compensation for not signing Aiken) and as of today the 7th pick as well. That’s still fluid with picks 5-9 separated by 2 games with under 20 to go.
– One of the reasons you’ll keep hearing about the Astros and Aiken is because Aiken’s advisor, Casey Close’s Excel Sports Management, represents 7 of my top 15 prospects. (I won’t connect specific players to advisors as that only serves to help the NCAA take leverage/college eligibility from kids.) Neither side has said they won’t sign or won’t draft a player from the other side, but the tension from the Aiken/Nix saga certainly doesn’t make this an easy situation to figure.
– A huge wildcard in this draft process is Texas prep SS Kyler Murray. Some football recruiting services have him as the top prep quarterback in the country and compare the 6’1/180 speedster to Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Murray has shown very little interest in baseball and only went to one national event this summer, but scouts are hopeful he’ll change his tune this spring.
Scouts think Murray may start showing more interest in baseball and they have some reasons to believe this. Scouts have no idea how good Murray is and they won’t know until a couple weeks into the spring, at least. We know he can play somewhere up the middle, is a plus-plus runner and has big bat speed…and that’s about it. My ranking is a bit of a hedge between the two possibilities: he could turn into a top half of the first round talent or just be another dual-sport guy with holes at the plate that most teams aren’t crazy about.
Another interesting angle is that Murray’s uncle is former big leaguer Calvin Murray, who works for agent Scott Boras. Murray/Boras advised a supposedly unsignable prep prospect, who surprisingly signed for $5 million in the 2011 MLB Draft, Pirates OF Josh Bell. Given that Murray isn’t the slam dunk high 1st round type of QB and Texas A&M already has some solid QB options on campus, Murray would have a reason to see what baseball could offer him. If he moves into consensus first round range this spring and can find the right team willing to overpay relative to the consensus, a guaranteed multi-million dollar bonus up front would be an enticing new option.
– There are lots of big league bloodlines among players on the list, with the sons of Terry Shumpert (Nick), Charlie Hayes (Ke’Bryan), Eli Marrero (Elih), Kirk Gibson (Cam), Mariano Rivera (Mariano Jr.) and Mike Cameron (Daz) all appearing, with the brothers of Carson Sands (Cole), Jay Sborz (Josh) and Preston Tucker (Kyle) also on the list. There’s also a couple really cool names in the class, like Skye Bolt, Demi Orimoloye, Lucius Fox (spelled the same as Morgan Freeman’s character in the Dark Knight films) and the perfect name for a potential southern senator: Dansby Swanson.
– I cut the list off at 51 as that was the rough point where things really opened up and scouts started disagreeing, with some taking off a player for another they like better while another would do the exact opposite with the same players. Consensus is a funny word this early in the draft process and some scouts don’t even have the same top 3 as me and most other scouts, but 50 or so seemed right. This list comes from over a year of going to games and talking to scouts, with over two dozen scouts and double digit scouting directors consulted in the last few weeks.
– The present hit grades for Rodgers and for all amateur players going forward is a peer grade (which I’ll discuss in more detail in a few days in an another article about the hit tool), rather than just putting blanket 20s on everyone’s present hit tool. A peer grade means how the player performs currently in games relative to his peers: players the same age and general draft status or skill level. Some teams started using this system to avoid over-projecting a raw hitter; some use the rule that you can’t project over 10 points above the peer grade for the future grade. This helps you avoid saying players that can’t really hit now will become standout big league hitters. Obviously, some will, but it’s not very common and it’s probably smart to not bet millions on the rare one that will.
1. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary HS (FL), Florida State commit
Hit: 60/60, Raw Power: 60/60 , Speed: 50/50+ , Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55
Rodgers was a standout last summer with scouts saying he’d go in the top 50 picks as a high school junior, then he took a huge step forward this summer when his bat speed and raw power jumped at least a notch, if not two. If you want to see him really let loose at the plate, check out this video, which I’m assuming is the And1 Mixtape Home Run Derby. Rodgers is only a solid-average runner but makes the most of his foot speed with solid instincts and very rarely ever misplays a ball at short. Some scouts aren’t ready to anoint him the top prospect in the land yet because he doesn’t “look like that type,” which is basically code for an average running white shortstop isn’t supposed to go 1/1. An averaging running shortstop from Orlando went 5th overall last year with 50 at best raw power and the 2015 class is shallow up top, so Rodgers belongs somewhere close to #1 if he isn’t the best player right now.
2. Brady Aiken, LHP, Who Knows?
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55
Aiken’s story is well known at this point. The stuff has never been in doubt, just like the command, age and frame have all been pluses the whole time as well. There is no injury history and only one team has seen his medicals, but his elbow left them a little worried. That’s enough so slide him behind Rodgers, though some scouts would flip the two. If he doesn’t end up finding a solution with the Astros, he’s expected to enroll at Yavapai JC in Arizona.
3. Michael Matuella, RHP, Duke
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50+
Matuella didn’t pitch this summer, so only Carolinas area scouts have really seen him; I happened to run into his first start after recovering from arm soreness when I was in town for other games. The temperature was in the 40’s that day and while I had heard Matuella had broken out that spring, expectations were low. He sat 93-97 mph for four innings with a 60 curveball and solid-average changeup and command. Matuella is surprisingly loose for 6’6’/225 and reminds me a lot of Pirates top prospect Tyler Glasnow, who I’ve seen a few times this year. The concern is that Matuella has only thrown 58 innings since his velo spike and there was multiple week arm soreness in the middle of it. When scouts get first looks at him this fall and early in the spring, they’re going to like what they see and if he can stay healthy until draft day with the stuff I saw, he’s a legit 1/1 threat.
4. Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt: Buehler’s stuff took a step forward this spring, sitting 91-95 and hitting 96 mph with two plus breaking balls and changeup/command that flash above average; the concern is his rail-thin 6’1/160 frame.
5. Phil Bickford, RHP, Southern Nevada JC: The 6’4/200 Bickford left Cal State Fullerton recently to get 2015 draft eligible and will announce where he’s headed soon (edit: he did, per note at the top of the article), with junior college the assumed destination; he went 10th overall out of high school and has improved since then, hitting 97 mph in short stints on the Cape with a plus slider, which he never showed in high school.
6. Kolby Allard, LHP, San Clemente HS (CA), UCLA commit: Allard is listed at 6’0/165 but is the youngest projected 1st rounder and showed a consistent above average fastball/slider combo all summer until he sat 93-95 mph in an inning late in the summer with a sharper slider; some expect a big step forward in the spring like Brady Aiken, another SoCal lefty that was very young for his class, showed last spring.
7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt: Swanson was a standout defensive shortstop in high school but hasn’t played there yet in college or in the summer, though he should take over short this spring for the Commodores; scouts expect him to show the tools to stick there and the 6’1/200 Swanson is a plus runner with an advanced bat.
8. Daz Cameron, CF, Eagle’s Landing HS (GA), Florida State commit: The son of Mike Cameron was getting Justin Upton-type hype as a prep sophomore but hasn’t taken the expected steps forward since then, though some scouts are anticipating a jump this spring; he’s still really good, but now compares less to Upton and more to the 23rd pick in last year’s draft, Tigers CF Derek Hill, as an overall prospect.
9. Justin Hooper, LHP, De La Salle HS (CA), UCLA commit: The 6’7/230 lefty has been up to 97 mph with an above average curveball and, late in the summer, flashed an above average changeup, though the command lags behind due to the effort in his delivery.
10. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville: The 6’2/220 righty sits 92-94 and bumps 96 mph with a plus slider and a solid-average changeup, but his command still comes and goes at times.
11. Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Pomona: The breakout pitcher of the Cape this summer comes from a tiny school in SoCal but he stands tall at 6’6/240. Scouts saw different versions of Ponce this summer but, in his best starts, he was 91-95 with a 55 or 60 curveball and the changeup/command to start while, in the Cape All-Star Game, he sat 94-97 mph with a 65 slider.
12. Alex Bregman, SS, LSU: One of the most famous players in college baseball had a bit of a down sophomore campaign and some scouts think he still fits better at 2B as a pro, but he flashes four above average tools and double-digit homer power from a simple swing.
13. Ian Happ, 2B/CF, Cincinnati: The 5’11/190 switch-hitter doesn’t have a first round type frame and has bounced around the field defensively, but flashes above average hit/power tools and plus speed.
14. Ashe Russell, RHP, Cathedral HS (IN), Uncommitted: The 6’4/195 righty was 92-95 with an above average curveball and solid-average changeup much of the summer.
15. Chris Betts, C, Wilson HS (CA), Tennessee commit: The 6’2/220 Betts drew Brian McCann comparisons this summer for above average raw power and hitting tools to go with a huge plus arm and enough defensive ability for a chance to stick behind the plate.
16. Nick Plummer, LF, Brother Rice HS (MI), Kentucky commit: Plummer popped up late in the summer and while he’s only 5’11/200 and fits in left field, he’s a quick-twitch athlete with plus bat speed, above average raw power and lots of hard contact.
17. Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt: Fulmer is listed at 5’11/195 and has toned-down his reliever-only delivery to give himself a chance to start, but I wouldn’t bet against the rubber-armed Vandy ace; he sits 92-96 and hits 97 with life and an above average curveball and changeup.
18. Alonzo Jones, 2B/CF, Columbus HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit: 80 runner draws splits takes on whether he plays in infield or outfield but looked like a new guy last month, flashing 50 raw power and plus bat speed from both sides that scouts hadn’t seen earlier this summer.
19. Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg HS (PA), Alabama commit: Unknown 6’5/205 righty announced himself as a first round type hitting 97 mph with a 55 or 60 curveball in June; he’s flashed an above average changeup as well but the velo has slipped into the high 80’s at times as well.
20. Kyle Cody, RHP, Kentucky: The 6’7/245 monster is still low-energy and inconsistent but, at his best, he sits 92-96 hitting 97 mph with a 55 curveball and changeup and enough command to start.
21. Nate Kirby, LHP, Virginia: Kirby didn’t pitch much this summer but didn’t need to after a huge sophomore campaign put him in first round contention; at his best, Kirby sits 92-94 mph with an above average breaking ball and feel to pitch.
22. D.J. Stewart, LF, Florida State: The 6’0/230 slugger doesn’t look like the typical first round bat, but he’s flashed above average hit and power tools with advanced feel for the strike zone and surprising athleticism; he was a high level high school running back.
23 .Trenton Clark, LF, Richland HS (TX), Texas Tech commit: Clark has slowly grown on scouts, as he first appears to be a tweener with 50 raw power, 55 speed and a 45 arm, but he’s raked more than any prep bat this summer and now looks like a more physical version of 2013 Oakland 1st rounder Billy McKinney.
24. Jake Lemoine, RHP, Houston: The 6’5/220 righty’s velo dipped down the stretch last spring, but he was back to normal this summer with an above average to plus fastball/slider combination and an improving changeup that’s also above average at times.
25. Kyle Tucker, RF, Plant HS (FL), Florida commit: The sweet-swinging lanky 6’4 lefty has drawn swing comparisons to Ted Williams, Ken Griffey Jr. and Daryl Strawberry while flashing projectable plus raw power with feel for the bat head; his summer game performance have been up and down but scouts that have history with Tucker expect him to take a huge step forward in the spring.
26. Greg Pickett, LF, Legend HS (CO), Mississippi State commit: The loose 6’4/210 lefty slugger flashes plus raw power and advanced feel for the strike zone, but he gave scouts some uneven looks this summer while he battled a leg injury.
27. Beau Burrows, RHP, Weatherford HS (TX), Texas A&M commit: The 6’2 righty regularly runs it into the mid-90’s with an above average hook, but he lacks projection and is more of a thrower right now.
28. Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara: The 6’2/185 righty has explosive stuff, sitting in the mid-90’s and hitting 99 mph with a slider that’s at least a 60 and some scouts hang a 70 on it; his delivery is high effort but he’s athletic enough that some think he could start.
29. Chris Shaw, 1B, Boston College: The 6’4/250 slugger is in surprisingly good shape for his listed size with a good sense of the strike zone, feel for the bat head, smooth mechanics and plus raw power; he has an average arm and could play a passable corner outfield as well.
30. Alex Young, LHP, TCU: The 6’2 lefty seems ordinary with a fastball, changeup and command that are all 50 or 55, but then he breaks out his plus low-80’s curveball and slider.
31. Austin Smith, RHP, Park Vista HS (FL), Florida Atlantic commit: The 6’4/215 righty has the smoothest arm action in the class, with scouts expecting he’ll sit in the mid-90’s one day and he flashes solid-average off-speed already; he sat mostly 90-91 this summer then hit 96 mph in an inning at the PG All-American Classic.
32. Chandler Day, RHP, Watkins HS (OH), Vanderbilt commit: The lanky 6’4 righty runs it up to 93 mph now with three pitches that flash above average and the frame/delivery to dream for more.
33. Marcus Brakeman, RHP, Stanford: The 6’1/180 Brakeman was another breakout arm on the Cape this summer, jumping from 88-91 for the Cardinal last spring to a consistent 91-95 this summer; his fringy curveball is the concern but the solid-average command and plus changeup help make up for it.
34. Gio Brusa, LF, Pacific: One of the breakout bats on the Cape this summer steadily moved up this list as scouts kept saying how much they liked his bat in a weak crop for college bats: there’s above average raw power and a 60 bat for some scouts, but not much in the way of speed/defense/arm.
35. Riley Ferrell, RHP, TCU: Ferrell sat out this summer but is plenty well-known to scouts as the two-year closer for the Horned Frogs and last summer for Team USA: he sits 94-97 with reports he’s hit 99 or 100 mph and an above average to plus slider, but it’s relief-only.
36. Demi Orimoloye, RF, St. Matthew HS (CAN), Uncommitted: Orimoloye caught scouts’ attention last year as an underclassman at the Area Code games and batting behind 2014 2nd rounder Gareth Morgan (Mariners) for Team Canada; Orimoloye is a 6’4/225 monster with a chance for five above average tools.
37. Richie Martin, SS, Florida: Area scouts were openly joking last spring that the talented but inconsistent Martin would be benched as a junior, but he took a huge step forward this summer on the Cape: there’s still some mental lapses defensively, but he’s a plus runner with the tools to play short, a developing bat and 50 raw power.
38. Garrett Whitley, CF, Niskayuna HS (NY), Wake Forest commit: Whitley popped up late in the summer, but the 6’2/200 athlete has legit tools, with 65 speed, 50 raw power and some feel to hit.
39. Kyler Murray, SS, Allen HS (TX), Texas A&M commit (FB): Discussed in depth in the intro, one of the top prep quarterbacks in the country could become a factor in the top half of the first round when scouts are finally able to watch him this spring.
40. Luken Baker, 1B/RHP, Oak Ridge HS (TX), TCU commit: The massive 6’4/240 Texan sits 92-95 mph in short stints with an above average breaking ball but more of a relief look while, at the plate, he flashes 65 or 70 raw power with surprisingly good contact skills; scouts are still split on whether his future is as a hitter or pitcher.
41. Jahmai Jones, 2B/OF, Wesleyan HS (GA), North Carolina commit: The 6’0/210 Jones has played mostly outfield this summer but looked like he could fit at 2B last summer; the above average to plus runner has a simple, efficient swing and caught fire late in the summer.
42. Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois: Jay was a complete unknown that pitched in relief for Team USA this summer and, while he’s about 6’0 with little track record and some effort to the delivery, the stuff is electric: 93-97 mph with above average to plus curveball and changeup.
43. Joe DeMers, RHP, College Park HS (CA), Washington commit: The 6’2/230 righty doesn’t have the kind of frame or delivery you expect with elite high school arms, but DeMers makes his delivery work for him and was 91-94 touching 96 mph all summer with a changeup and curveball that flash above average.
44. Cornelius Randolph, 3B, Griffin HS (GA), Clemson commit: Randolph showed flashes of first round ability this summer with average speed/defense and above average arm/raw power to go with some feel to hit, though some scouts saw lesser tools at times and are more cautious.
45. Cadyn Grenier, SS, Bishop Gorman HS (NV), Oregon State commit: Grenier is a steady shortstop that has just enough ability to stick there long-term and above average speed, which was complemented by a stronger frame with more bat speed late in the summer.
Mac Marshall, LHP, Chipola JC (FL): I referenced the 6’2/185 lefty’s background at the top of the article and he fits at this point on the list, though I didn’t re-rank the players. Marshall normally sits 88-92 and hit 95 mph last season, but his velo varied a lot last year; his curveball is above average at times, if inconsistent, while his changeup has flashed plus and he projects for average command.
46. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Royal Palm Beach HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit: Rail-thin 6’5/160 righty sits around 90 mph now, touches higher and flashes an above average breaking ball to go with enough changeup/command to start.
47. Andrew Suarez, LHP, Miami: The Nationals’ unsigned 2nd rounder from 2014 sat 91-95 mph most times out last spring with an above average breaking ball and the changeup/command to start; he should go in the same range again.
48. Christin Stewart, LF, Tennessee: Physical power hitter flashes plus raw power from the left side and raked for Team USA this summer, but swing mechanics are inconsistent and speed/defense/arm limit him to left field.
49. Mikey White, SS, Alabama: Not a flashy player, but White has steadily improved at the plate and could be a league-average bat that gets the most out of solid-average tools at a middle infield position.
50. Mitchell Hansen, LF, Plano HS (TX), Stanford commit: Lanky 6’4 athlete flashes above average power potential and speed with developing feel at the plate, but arm strength limits him to left field.
51. Kyle Molnar, RHP, Aliso Niguel HS (CA), UCLA commit: Molnar doesn’t have much physical projection or the prettiest arm action, but he flashes three above average pitches with feel and keeps improving.
Just Missing The List
Nick Shumpert, SS, Highlands Ranch HS (CO), Kentucky commit: Son of former big leaguer Terry Shumpert, Nick has above average to plus speed and a chance to stick at shortstop, but can get pull-happy at the plate with a Juan Gonzalez-style swing at times and is maxed-out at 5’11/175.
Corey Zangari, RHP, Carl Albert HS (OK), Oklahoma State commit: Zangari only threw in one national event this summer and didn’t even throw for his high school team last year due to control issues. The 6’4/225 righty has been in the mid-90’s at his best with three pitches all flashing above average.
Daniel Reyes, LF, Mater Academy HS (FL), Florida commit: I first saw Reyes when he started as a freshman on a loaded Mater Academy team in left field alongside CF Albert Almora (#6 overall pick in 2012) and RF Willie Abreu (#3 hitter for Miami Hurricanes as a freshman last year). Reyes is a solid athlete with 60 raw power and smooth, quick hands, but is limited to left field and his swing broke down late in the summer.
Garrett Wolforth, C, Concordia Lutheran HS (TX), Dallas Baptist commit: The son of pitching guru Ron Wolforth re-classified to the 2015 class in the last few weeks and he’s the youngest kid on this list by a few months. His carrying tool is a 70 arm that he loves showing off and the 6’2/185 switch hitter has feel to hit and catch as well.
Josh Staumont, RHP, Azusa Pacific: The 6’2/205 righty from a Division II school in SoCal turned heads getting up to 97 or 98 mph regularly last spring, with a heavily anticipated Cape Cod League showing this summer. Things were very uneven, with him occasionally showing upper 90’s heat, a potential plus curve and usable changeup but at other times he showed 20 command of more average stuff due to delivery problems.
Steven Duggar, CF, Clemson: Duggar has added more speed and arm strength since high school, now flashing 70s for both tools, but his swing mechanics still need some adjustments to make more contact and get to his power in games.
Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona: Newman led the Cape in hitting two summers in a row and scouts keep saying someone will take him in the 2nd round next year, but the tools aren’t huge. Most think he fits best at second base long term and his power and speed are both below average, but he can really hit and can play somewhere up the middle with flashy numbers, so someone will bite.
Interesting Talents With Top 5 Round Upside
Ryan Perez, BHP, Judson (IL): This switch pitcher from a tiny college in Illinois isn’t just a sideshow. Perez is better from the left side, where he’s 90-93 with a plus slider at his best, and both pitches are a tick or two lower from the right side. He has solid command, but some scouts only saw average stuff at times and wonder if he can go in the top 5 rounds since they haven’t seen a changeup. either.
Cam Gibson, CF, Michigan State: The son of Kirk Gibson is an 80 runner for many scouts, but his hitting mechanics are a little too much like Ichiro, given Gibson’s potential average power and the swing is high maintenance enough that he didn’t make much contact on the Cape. Another scout also noted Gibson’s “sweet blonde mullet.”
Nolan Long, RHP, Wagner: The 6’10 righty drew attention from top ACC and SEC schools for hoops but wanted to play baseball as well and Wagner was the top school that allowed him to play both. It may be a mistake by those major schools, as Long was 89-92 with some reports he hit 95 mph in the NECBL this summer.
Kyri Washington, CF, Longwood (VA): The hitter with the most raw power on the Cape (65) is also a plus runner that can play center field, so why isn’t he on the list? His plate discipline is awful and his swing isn’t exactly great either: it’s mostly raw tools for a former football player still new to baseball.
Drew Jackson, SS, Stanford: Jackson was regularly called a potential 1st rounder as a freshman and on the Cape after his freshman year, as the 6’2/195 athlete is a plus runner with a chance to stick at short and the strength for average power. His swing has completely fallen apart and Stanford doesn’t exactly have the reputation of fixing swings. He sat 90-91 in a late season Cape appearance on the mound; he’s so talented there has to be a solution here.
Mariano Rivera Jr., RHP, Iona: Little Mo was mostly 88-90 last year and appeared to be a courtesy draft by the Yankees in the 29th round last June. This summer, reports from the NECBL have hi sitting 90-92, touching 94 mph and some are wondering if he’s a late-bloomer like his father.
Justin Jacome, LHP, UC Santa Barbara: Jacome (pronounced HOCK-oh-me) is a low-effort, projection and command lefty with some similarities to the crafty big league lefty of your choice. The 6’6/225 lefty sat 85-89 touching 90 this summer with a solid-average four pitch mix, comically low effort, extreme pitchability, a clean delivery, a magical ability to miss bats and RecSpecs, so you know he’s serious.
Jake Kelzer, RHP, Indiana: Some area scouts were scrambling late leading up the 2014 draft to get looks at the 6’7/235 draft-eligible redshirt freshman swimmer for the Hoosiers. Some scouts didn’t know Kelzer was eligible but he ended up getting drafted (and not signing) as a 22nd rounder of the Yankees. Kelzer is 90-93, touching 94 mph with a hard slider at his best, but is still pretty raw.
More Prospects To Watch
I had a lot more names that were mentioned by scouts and I wanted to rank more players, but there wasn’t enough consensus for a hard ranking of this many kids. So, I made four groups of 17 players from each demographic, ranked in no particular order, to give you more names to monitor for rounds 3-4, though I could’ve easily expanded this even further.
HS pitchers: RHP Cole McKay (TX, LSU), RHP Cole Sands (FL, Florida State), RHP Gray Fenter (TN, Mississippi State), RHP Brady Singer (FL, Florida), LHP Hunter Bowling (FL, Florida), RHP Jason Bilous (DE, Coastal Carolina), RHP Donnie Everett (TN, Vanderbilt), RHP Drew Finley (CA, USC), LHP Juan Hillman (FL, UCF), LHP Thomas Szapucki (FL, Florida), RHP Cody Morris (MD, South Carolina), RHP Matthew McGarry (CA, Vanderbilt), LHP Max Wotell (NC, Arizona), RHP Chris Andritsos (TX, Oklahoma), LHP Brendon Little (PA, North Carolina), RHP Nolan Watson (IN, Vanderbilt), RHP Riley Thompson (KY, Louisville), RHP Bryan Hoeing (IN, Louisville)
HS hitters: SS Jalen Miller (GA, Clemson), SS Jonathan India (FL, Florida), SS Lucius Fox (FL, North Carolina State), 3B Bryce Denton (TN, Vanderbilt), CF D.J. Wilson (OH, Vanderbilt), LF Chris Chatfield (FL, USF), RF Ryan Johnson (TX, TCU), 2B Travis Blankenhorn (PA, Kentucky), LF Kep Brown (SC, None), 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (TX, Tennessee), CF Ryan McKenna (ME, Liberty), 3B Brendon Davis (CA, Fullerton), 3B John Aiello (NJ, Wake Forest), 3B L.T. Tolbert (FL, South Carolina), 3B Ryan Mountcastle (FL, UCF), CF Eric Jenkins (NC, UNC Wilmington), C Wyatt Cross (CO, North Carolina)
College pitchers: RHP Cody Poteet (UCLA), LHP Brett Lillek (Arizona State), RHP Trent Thornton (North Carolina), RHP Kyle Wilcox (Bryant), RHP Tyler Ferguson (Vanderbilt), RHP Brock Hartson (UT San Antonio), RHP Jon Harris (Missouri State), RHP Blake Hickman (Iowa), RHP Eric Hanhold (Florida), RHP James Kaprelian (UCLA), RHP Kolton Mahoney (BYU), LHP Travis Bergen (Kennesaw State), RHP Jon Duplantier (Rice), RHP Josh Sborz (Virginia), RHP Ryan Burr (Arizona State), LHP Garrett Cleavinger (Oregon), RHP Seth McGarry (Florida Atlantic)
College hitters: SS Kal Simmons (Kennesaw State), CF Andrew Stevenson (LSU), 2B Edwin Rios (FIU), SS C.J. Hinojosa (Texas), C Taylor Ward (Fresno State), RF Rhett Wiseman (Vanderbilt), SS Blake Trahan (Louisiana Lafayette), LF Donnie Dewees (North Florida), CF Harrison Bader (Florida), 3B David Thompson (Miami), RF Joe McCarthy (Virginia), LF Isiah Gilliam (Chipola JC), 3B Matt Gonzalez (Georgia Tech), LF Brandon Sanger (Florida Atlantic), 3B Travis Maezes (Michigan), CF Braden Bishop (Washington), CF Skye Bolt (North Carolina)
Marshall is joining high school teammate Isiah Gilliam (mentioned in the extra names below the rankings) at Florida panhandle juco powerhouse Chipola JC after both opted not to sign with the Astros and Cubs, respectively, after leaving another powerhouse program, Atlanta-area Parkview High School. Marshall would slot 46th on this list, but I didn’t change the rankings, just put a blurb for Marshall in the spot where he would be on the list if I re-ranked it.
Some housekeeping notes to clarify and expound on the rankings:
– Brady Aiken still hasn’t signed and nothing concrete has been announced to that end, so he’s in the 2015 class until further notice. Like Aiken, Phil Bickford’s school is unknown at the moment, but both are expected to go to junior colleges out west.
– This draft class is shallow at the top. The top 3 players are a tier and then the players right behind them would usually be around 10th in most classes. There’s still plenty of time for new players to emerge or known players to get better, but at this point things are a little light.
– The Astros are once again a big story, as they have the 2nd overall pick (compensation for not signing Aiken) and as of today the 7th pick as well. That’s still fluid with picks 5-9 separated by 2 games with under 20 to go.
– One of the reasons you’ll keep hearing about the Astros and Aiken is because Aiken’s advisor, Casey Close’s Excel Sports Management, represents 7 of my top 15 prospects. (I won’t connect specific players to advisors as that only serves to help the NCAA take leverage/college eligibility from kids.) Neither side has said they won’t sign or won’t draft a player from the other side, but the tension from the Aiken/Nix saga certainly doesn’t make this an easy situation to figure.
– A huge wildcard in this draft process is Texas prep SS Kyler Murray. Some football recruiting services have him as the top prep quarterback in the country and compare the 6’1/180 speedster to Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Murray has shown very little interest in baseball and only went to one national event this summer, but scouts are hopeful he’ll change his tune this spring.
Scouts think Murray may start showing more interest in baseball and they have some reasons to believe this. Scouts have no idea how good Murray is and they won’t know until a couple weeks into the spring, at least. We know he can play somewhere up the middle, is a plus-plus runner and has big bat speed…and that’s about it. My ranking is a bit of a hedge between the two possibilities: he could turn into a top half of the first round talent or just be another dual-sport guy with holes at the plate that most teams aren’t crazy about.
Another interesting angle is that Murray’s uncle is former big leaguer Calvin Murray, who works for agent Scott Boras. Murray/Boras advised a supposedly unsignable prep prospect, who surprisingly signed for $5 million in the 2011 MLB Draft, Pirates OF Josh Bell. Given that Murray isn’t the slam dunk high 1st round type of QB and Texas A&M already has some solid QB options on campus, Murray would have a reason to see what baseball could offer him. If he moves into consensus first round range this spring and can find the right team willing to overpay relative to the consensus, a guaranteed multi-million dollar bonus up front would be an enticing new option.
– There are lots of big league bloodlines among players on the list, with the sons of Terry Shumpert (Nick), Charlie Hayes (Ke’Bryan), Eli Marrero (Elih), Kirk Gibson (Cam), Mariano Rivera (Mariano Jr.) and Mike Cameron (Daz) all appearing, with the brothers of Carson Sands (Cole), Jay Sborz (Josh) and Preston Tucker (Kyle) also on the list. There’s also a couple really cool names in the class, like Skye Bolt, Demi Orimoloye, Lucius Fox (spelled the same as Morgan Freeman’s character in the Dark Knight films) and the perfect name for a potential southern senator: Dansby Swanson.
– I cut the list off at 51 as that was the rough point where things really opened up and scouts started disagreeing, with some taking off a player for another they like better while another would do the exact opposite with the same players. Consensus is a funny word this early in the draft process and some scouts don’t even have the same top 3 as me and most other scouts, but 50 or so seemed right. This list comes from over a year of going to games and talking to scouts, with over two dozen scouts and double digit scouting directors consulted in the last few weeks.
– The present hit grades for Rodgers and for all amateur players going forward is a peer grade (which I’ll discuss in more detail in a few days in an another article about the hit tool), rather than just putting blanket 20s on everyone’s present hit tool. A peer grade means how the player performs currently in games relative to his peers: players the same age and general draft status or skill level. Some teams started using this system to avoid over-projecting a raw hitter; some use the rule that you can’t project over 10 points above the peer grade for the future grade. This helps you avoid saying players that can’t really hit now will become standout big league hitters. Obviously, some will, but it’s not very common and it’s probably smart to not bet millions on the rare one that will.
1. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary HS (FL), Florida State commit
Hit: 60/60, Raw Power: 60/60 , Speed: 50/50+ , Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55
Rodgers was a standout last summer with scouts saying he’d go in the top 50 picks as a high school junior, then he took a huge step forward this summer when his bat speed and raw power jumped at least a notch, if not two. If you want to see him really let loose at the plate, check out this video, which I’m assuming is the And1 Mixtape Home Run Derby. Rodgers is only a solid-average runner but makes the most of his foot speed with solid instincts and very rarely ever misplays a ball at short. Some scouts aren’t ready to anoint him the top prospect in the land yet because he doesn’t “look like that type,” which is basically code for an average running white shortstop isn’t supposed to go 1/1. An averaging running shortstop from Orlando went 5th overall last year with 50 at best raw power and the 2015 class is shallow up top, so Rodgers belongs somewhere close to #1 if he isn’t the best player right now.
2. Brady Aiken, LHP, Who Knows?
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55
Aiken’s story is well known at this point. The stuff has never been in doubt, just like the command, age and frame have all been pluses the whole time as well. There is no injury history and only one team has seen his medicals, but his elbow left them a little worried. That’s enough so slide him behind Rodgers, though some scouts would flip the two. If he doesn’t end up finding a solution with the Astros, he’s expected to enroll at Yavapai JC in Arizona.
3. Michael Matuella, RHP, Duke
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50+
Matuella didn’t pitch this summer, so only Carolinas area scouts have really seen him; I happened to run into his first start after recovering from arm soreness when I was in town for other games. The temperature was in the 40’s that day and while I had heard Matuella had broken out that spring, expectations were low. He sat 93-97 mph for four innings with a 60 curveball and solid-average changeup and command. Matuella is surprisingly loose for 6’6’/225 and reminds me a lot of Pirates top prospect Tyler Glasnow, who I’ve seen a few times this year. The concern is that Matuella has only thrown 58 innings since his velo spike and there was multiple week arm soreness in the middle of it. When scouts get first looks at him this fall and early in the spring, they’re going to like what they see and if he can stay healthy until draft day with the stuff I saw, he’s a legit 1/1 threat.
4. Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt: Buehler’s stuff took a step forward this spring, sitting 91-95 and hitting 96 mph with two plus breaking balls and changeup/command that flash above average; the concern is his rail-thin 6’1/160 frame.
5. Phil Bickford, RHP, Southern Nevada JC: The 6’4/200 Bickford left Cal State Fullerton recently to get 2015 draft eligible and will announce where he’s headed soon (edit: he did, per note at the top of the article), with junior college the assumed destination; he went 10th overall out of high school and has improved since then, hitting 97 mph in short stints on the Cape with a plus slider, which he never showed in high school.
6. Kolby Allard, LHP, San Clemente HS (CA), UCLA commit: Allard is listed at 6’0/165 but is the youngest projected 1st rounder and showed a consistent above average fastball/slider combo all summer until he sat 93-95 mph in an inning late in the summer with a sharper slider; some expect a big step forward in the spring like Brady Aiken, another SoCal lefty that was very young for his class, showed last spring.
7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt: Swanson was a standout defensive shortstop in high school but hasn’t played there yet in college or in the summer, though he should take over short this spring for the Commodores; scouts expect him to show the tools to stick there and the 6’1/200 Swanson is a plus runner with an advanced bat.
8. Daz Cameron, CF, Eagle’s Landing HS (GA), Florida State commit: The son of Mike Cameron was getting Justin Upton-type hype as a prep sophomore but hasn’t taken the expected steps forward since then, though some scouts are anticipating a jump this spring; he’s still really good, but now compares less to Upton and more to the 23rd pick in last year’s draft, Tigers CF Derek Hill, as an overall prospect.
9. Justin Hooper, LHP, De La Salle HS (CA), UCLA commit: The 6’7/230 lefty has been up to 97 mph with an above average curveball and, late in the summer, flashed an above average changeup, though the command lags behind due to the effort in his delivery.
10. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville: The 6’2/220 righty sits 92-94 and bumps 96 mph with a plus slider and a solid-average changeup, but his command still comes and goes at times.
11. Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Pomona: The breakout pitcher of the Cape this summer comes from a tiny school in SoCal but he stands tall at 6’6/240. Scouts saw different versions of Ponce this summer but, in his best starts, he was 91-95 with a 55 or 60 curveball and the changeup/command to start while, in the Cape All-Star Game, he sat 94-97 mph with a 65 slider.
12. Alex Bregman, SS, LSU: One of the most famous players in college baseball had a bit of a down sophomore campaign and some scouts think he still fits better at 2B as a pro, but he flashes four above average tools and double-digit homer power from a simple swing.
13. Ian Happ, 2B/CF, Cincinnati: The 5’11/190 switch-hitter doesn’t have a first round type frame and has bounced around the field defensively, but flashes above average hit/power tools and plus speed.
14. Ashe Russell, RHP, Cathedral HS (IN), Uncommitted: The 6’4/195 righty was 92-95 with an above average curveball and solid-average changeup much of the summer.
15. Chris Betts, C, Wilson HS (CA), Tennessee commit: The 6’2/220 Betts drew Brian McCann comparisons this summer for above average raw power and hitting tools to go with a huge plus arm and enough defensive ability for a chance to stick behind the plate.
16. Nick Plummer, LF, Brother Rice HS (MI), Kentucky commit: Plummer popped up late in the summer and while he’s only 5’11/200 and fits in left field, he’s a quick-twitch athlete with plus bat speed, above average raw power and lots of hard contact.
17. Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt: Fulmer is listed at 5’11/195 and has toned-down his reliever-only delivery to give himself a chance to start, but I wouldn’t bet against the rubber-armed Vandy ace; he sits 92-96 and hits 97 with life and an above average curveball and changeup.
18. Alonzo Jones, 2B/CF, Columbus HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit: 80 runner draws splits takes on whether he plays in infield or outfield but looked like a new guy last month, flashing 50 raw power and plus bat speed from both sides that scouts hadn’t seen earlier this summer.
19. Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg HS (PA), Alabama commit: Unknown 6’5/205 righty announced himself as a first round type hitting 97 mph with a 55 or 60 curveball in June; he’s flashed an above average changeup as well but the velo has slipped into the high 80’s at times as well.
20. Kyle Cody, RHP, Kentucky: The 6’7/245 monster is still low-energy and inconsistent but, at his best, he sits 92-96 hitting 97 mph with a 55 curveball and changeup and enough command to start.
21. Nate Kirby, LHP, Virginia: Kirby didn’t pitch much this summer but didn’t need to after a huge sophomore campaign put him in first round contention; at his best, Kirby sits 92-94 mph with an above average breaking ball and feel to pitch.
22. D.J. Stewart, LF, Florida State: The 6’0/230 slugger doesn’t look like the typical first round bat, but he’s flashed above average hit and power tools with advanced feel for the strike zone and surprising athleticism; he was a high level high school running back.
23 .Trenton Clark, LF, Richland HS (TX), Texas Tech commit: Clark has slowly grown on scouts, as he first appears to be a tweener with 50 raw power, 55 speed and a 45 arm, but he’s raked more than any prep bat this summer and now looks like a more physical version of 2013 Oakland 1st rounder Billy McKinney.
24. Jake Lemoine, RHP, Houston: The 6’5/220 righty’s velo dipped down the stretch last spring, but he was back to normal this summer with an above average to plus fastball/slider combination and an improving changeup that’s also above average at times.
25. Kyle Tucker, RF, Plant HS (FL), Florida commit: The sweet-swinging lanky 6’4 lefty has drawn swing comparisons to Ted Williams, Ken Griffey Jr. and Daryl Strawberry while flashing projectable plus raw power with feel for the bat head; his summer game performance have been up and down but scouts that have history with Tucker expect him to take a huge step forward in the spring.
26. Greg Pickett, LF, Legend HS (CO), Mississippi State commit: The loose 6’4/210 lefty slugger flashes plus raw power and advanced feel for the strike zone, but he gave scouts some uneven looks this summer while he battled a leg injury.
27. Beau Burrows, RHP, Weatherford HS (TX), Texas A&M commit: The 6’2 righty regularly runs it into the mid-90’s with an above average hook, but he lacks projection and is more of a thrower right now.
28. Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara: The 6’2/185 righty has explosive stuff, sitting in the mid-90’s and hitting 99 mph with a slider that’s at least a 60 and some scouts hang a 70 on it; his delivery is high effort but he’s athletic enough that some think he could start.
29. Chris Shaw, 1B, Boston College: The 6’4/250 slugger is in surprisingly good shape for his listed size with a good sense of the strike zone, feel for the bat head, smooth mechanics and plus raw power; he has an average arm and could play a passable corner outfield as well.
30. Alex Young, LHP, TCU: The 6’2 lefty seems ordinary with a fastball, changeup and command that are all 50 or 55, but then he breaks out his plus low-80’s curveball and slider.
31. Austin Smith, RHP, Park Vista HS (FL), Florida Atlantic commit: The 6’4/215 righty has the smoothest arm action in the class, with scouts expecting he’ll sit in the mid-90’s one day and he flashes solid-average off-speed already; he sat mostly 90-91 this summer then hit 96 mph in an inning at the PG All-American Classic.
32. Chandler Day, RHP, Watkins HS (OH), Vanderbilt commit: The lanky 6’4 righty runs it up to 93 mph now with three pitches that flash above average and the frame/delivery to dream for more.
33. Marcus Brakeman, RHP, Stanford: The 6’1/180 Brakeman was another breakout arm on the Cape this summer, jumping from 88-91 for the Cardinal last spring to a consistent 91-95 this summer; his fringy curveball is the concern but the solid-average command and plus changeup help make up for it.
34. Gio Brusa, LF, Pacific: One of the breakout bats on the Cape this summer steadily moved up this list as scouts kept saying how much they liked his bat in a weak crop for college bats: there’s above average raw power and a 60 bat for some scouts, but not much in the way of speed/defense/arm.
35. Riley Ferrell, RHP, TCU: Ferrell sat out this summer but is plenty well-known to scouts as the two-year closer for the Horned Frogs and last summer for Team USA: he sits 94-97 with reports he’s hit 99 or 100 mph and an above average to plus slider, but it’s relief-only.
36. Demi Orimoloye, RF, St. Matthew HS (CAN), Uncommitted: Orimoloye caught scouts’ attention last year as an underclassman at the Area Code games and batting behind 2014 2nd rounder Gareth Morgan (Mariners) for Team Canada; Orimoloye is a 6’4/225 monster with a chance for five above average tools.
37. Richie Martin, SS, Florida: Area scouts were openly joking last spring that the talented but inconsistent Martin would be benched as a junior, but he took a huge step forward this summer on the Cape: there’s still some mental lapses defensively, but he’s a plus runner with the tools to play short, a developing bat and 50 raw power.
38. Garrett Whitley, CF, Niskayuna HS (NY), Wake Forest commit: Whitley popped up late in the summer, but the 6’2/200 athlete has legit tools, with 65 speed, 50 raw power and some feel to hit.
39. Kyler Murray, SS, Allen HS (TX), Texas A&M commit (FB): Discussed in depth in the intro, one of the top prep quarterbacks in the country could become a factor in the top half of the first round when scouts are finally able to watch him this spring.
40. Luken Baker, 1B/RHP, Oak Ridge HS (TX), TCU commit: The massive 6’4/240 Texan sits 92-95 mph in short stints with an above average breaking ball but more of a relief look while, at the plate, he flashes 65 or 70 raw power with surprisingly good contact skills; scouts are still split on whether his future is as a hitter or pitcher.
41. Jahmai Jones, 2B/OF, Wesleyan HS (GA), North Carolina commit: The 6’0/210 Jones has played mostly outfield this summer but looked like he could fit at 2B last summer; the above average to plus runner has a simple, efficient swing and caught fire late in the summer.
42. Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois: Jay was a complete unknown that pitched in relief for Team USA this summer and, while he’s about 6’0 with little track record and some effort to the delivery, the stuff is electric: 93-97 mph with above average to plus curveball and changeup.
43. Joe DeMers, RHP, College Park HS (CA), Washington commit: The 6’2/230 righty doesn’t have the kind of frame or delivery you expect with elite high school arms, but DeMers makes his delivery work for him and was 91-94 touching 96 mph all summer with a changeup and curveball that flash above average.
44. Cornelius Randolph, 3B, Griffin HS (GA), Clemson commit: Randolph showed flashes of first round ability this summer with average speed/defense and above average arm/raw power to go with some feel to hit, though some scouts saw lesser tools at times and are more cautious.
45. Cadyn Grenier, SS, Bishop Gorman HS (NV), Oregon State commit: Grenier is a steady shortstop that has just enough ability to stick there long-term and above average speed, which was complemented by a stronger frame with more bat speed late in the summer.
Mac Marshall, LHP, Chipola JC (FL): I referenced the 6’2/185 lefty’s background at the top of the article and he fits at this point on the list, though I didn’t re-rank the players. Marshall normally sits 88-92 and hit 95 mph last season, but his velo varied a lot last year; his curveball is above average at times, if inconsistent, while his changeup has flashed plus and he projects for average command.
46. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Royal Palm Beach HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit: Rail-thin 6’5/160 righty sits around 90 mph now, touches higher and flashes an above average breaking ball to go with enough changeup/command to start.
47. Andrew Suarez, LHP, Miami: The Nationals’ unsigned 2nd rounder from 2014 sat 91-95 mph most times out last spring with an above average breaking ball and the changeup/command to start; he should go in the same range again.
48. Christin Stewart, LF, Tennessee: Physical power hitter flashes plus raw power from the left side and raked for Team USA this summer, but swing mechanics are inconsistent and speed/defense/arm limit him to left field.
49. Mikey White, SS, Alabama: Not a flashy player, but White has steadily improved at the plate and could be a league-average bat that gets the most out of solid-average tools at a middle infield position.
50. Mitchell Hansen, LF, Plano HS (TX), Stanford commit: Lanky 6’4 athlete flashes above average power potential and speed with developing feel at the plate, but arm strength limits him to left field.
51. Kyle Molnar, RHP, Aliso Niguel HS (CA), UCLA commit: Molnar doesn’t have much physical projection or the prettiest arm action, but he flashes three above average pitches with feel and keeps improving.
Just Missing The List
Nick Shumpert, SS, Highlands Ranch HS (CO), Kentucky commit: Son of former big leaguer Terry Shumpert, Nick has above average to plus speed and a chance to stick at shortstop, but can get pull-happy at the plate with a Juan Gonzalez-style swing at times and is maxed-out at 5’11/175.
Corey Zangari, RHP, Carl Albert HS (OK), Oklahoma State commit: Zangari only threw in one national event this summer and didn’t even throw for his high school team last year due to control issues. The 6’4/225 righty has been in the mid-90’s at his best with three pitches all flashing above average.
Daniel Reyes, LF, Mater Academy HS (FL), Florida commit: I first saw Reyes when he started as a freshman on a loaded Mater Academy team in left field alongside CF Albert Almora (#6 overall pick in 2012) and RF Willie Abreu (#3 hitter for Miami Hurricanes as a freshman last year). Reyes is a solid athlete with 60 raw power and smooth, quick hands, but is limited to left field and his swing broke down late in the summer.
Garrett Wolforth, C, Concordia Lutheran HS (TX), Dallas Baptist commit: The son of pitching guru Ron Wolforth re-classified to the 2015 class in the last few weeks and he’s the youngest kid on this list by a few months. His carrying tool is a 70 arm that he loves showing off and the 6’2/185 switch hitter has feel to hit and catch as well.
Josh Staumont, RHP, Azusa Pacific: The 6’2/205 righty from a Division II school in SoCal turned heads getting up to 97 or 98 mph regularly last spring, with a heavily anticipated Cape Cod League showing this summer. Things were very uneven, with him occasionally showing upper 90’s heat, a potential plus curve and usable changeup but at other times he showed 20 command of more average stuff due to delivery problems.
Steven Duggar, CF, Clemson: Duggar has added more speed and arm strength since high school, now flashing 70s for both tools, but his swing mechanics still need some adjustments to make more contact and get to his power in games.
Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona: Newman led the Cape in hitting two summers in a row and scouts keep saying someone will take him in the 2nd round next year, but the tools aren’t huge. Most think he fits best at second base long term and his power and speed are both below average, but he can really hit and can play somewhere up the middle with flashy numbers, so someone will bite.
Interesting Talents With Top 5 Round Upside
Ryan Perez, BHP, Judson (IL): This switch pitcher from a tiny college in Illinois isn’t just a sideshow. Perez is better from the left side, where he’s 90-93 with a plus slider at his best, and both pitches are a tick or two lower from the right side. He has solid command, but some scouts only saw average stuff at times and wonder if he can go in the top 5 rounds since they haven’t seen a changeup. either.
Cam Gibson, CF, Michigan State: The son of Kirk Gibson is an 80 runner for many scouts, but his hitting mechanics are a little too much like Ichiro, given Gibson’s potential average power and the swing is high maintenance enough that he didn’t make much contact on the Cape. Another scout also noted Gibson’s “sweet blonde mullet.”
Nolan Long, RHP, Wagner: The 6’10 righty drew attention from top ACC and SEC schools for hoops but wanted to play baseball as well and Wagner was the top school that allowed him to play both. It may be a mistake by those major schools, as Long was 89-92 with some reports he hit 95 mph in the NECBL this summer.
Kyri Washington, CF, Longwood (VA): The hitter with the most raw power on the Cape (65) is also a plus runner that can play center field, so why isn’t he on the list? His plate discipline is awful and his swing isn’t exactly great either: it’s mostly raw tools for a former football player still new to baseball.
Drew Jackson, SS, Stanford: Jackson was regularly called a potential 1st rounder as a freshman and on the Cape after his freshman year, as the 6’2/195 athlete is a plus runner with a chance to stick at short and the strength for average power. His swing has completely fallen apart and Stanford doesn’t exactly have the reputation of fixing swings. He sat 90-91 in a late season Cape appearance on the mound; he’s so talented there has to be a solution here.
Mariano Rivera Jr., RHP, Iona: Little Mo was mostly 88-90 last year and appeared to be a courtesy draft by the Yankees in the 29th round last June. This summer, reports from the NECBL have hi sitting 90-92, touching 94 mph and some are wondering if he’s a late-bloomer like his father.
Justin Jacome, LHP, UC Santa Barbara: Jacome (pronounced HOCK-oh-me) is a low-effort, projection and command lefty with some similarities to the crafty big league lefty of your choice. The 6’6/225 lefty sat 85-89 touching 90 this summer with a solid-average four pitch mix, comically low effort, extreme pitchability, a clean delivery, a magical ability to miss bats and RecSpecs, so you know he’s serious.
Jake Kelzer, RHP, Indiana: Some area scouts were scrambling late leading up the 2014 draft to get looks at the 6’7/235 draft-eligible redshirt freshman swimmer for the Hoosiers. Some scouts didn’t know Kelzer was eligible but he ended up getting drafted (and not signing) as a 22nd rounder of the Yankees. Kelzer is 90-93, touching 94 mph with a hard slider at his best, but is still pretty raw.
More Prospects To Watch
I had a lot more names that were mentioned by scouts and I wanted to rank more players, but there wasn’t enough consensus for a hard ranking of this many kids. So, I made four groups of 17 players from each demographic, ranked in no particular order, to give you more names to monitor for rounds 3-4, though I could’ve easily expanded this even further.
HS pitchers: RHP Cole McKay (TX, LSU), RHP Cole Sands (FL, Florida State), RHP Gray Fenter (TN, Mississippi State), RHP Brady Singer (FL, Florida), LHP Hunter Bowling (FL, Florida), RHP Jason Bilous (DE, Coastal Carolina), RHP Donnie Everett (TN, Vanderbilt), RHP Drew Finley (CA, USC), LHP Juan Hillman (FL, UCF), LHP Thomas Szapucki (FL, Florida), RHP Cody Morris (MD, South Carolina), RHP Matthew McGarry (CA, Vanderbilt), LHP Max Wotell (NC, Arizona), RHP Chris Andritsos (TX, Oklahoma), LHP Brendon Little (PA, North Carolina), RHP Nolan Watson (IN, Vanderbilt), RHP Riley Thompson (KY, Louisville), RHP Bryan Hoeing (IN, Louisville)
HS hitters: SS Jalen Miller (GA, Clemson), SS Jonathan India (FL, Florida), SS Lucius Fox (FL, North Carolina State), 3B Bryce Denton (TN, Vanderbilt), CF D.J. Wilson (OH, Vanderbilt), LF Chris Chatfield (FL, USF), RF Ryan Johnson (TX, TCU), 2B Travis Blankenhorn (PA, Kentucky), LF Kep Brown (SC, None), 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (TX, Tennessee), CF Ryan McKenna (ME, Liberty), 3B Brendon Davis (CA, Fullerton), 3B John Aiello (NJ, Wake Forest), 3B L.T. Tolbert (FL, South Carolina), 3B Ryan Mountcastle (FL, UCF), CF Eric Jenkins (NC, UNC Wilmington), C Wyatt Cross (CO, North Carolina)
College pitchers: RHP Cody Poteet (UCLA), LHP Brett Lillek (Arizona State), RHP Trent Thornton (North Carolina), RHP Kyle Wilcox (Bryant), RHP Tyler Ferguson (Vanderbilt), RHP Brock Hartson (UT San Antonio), RHP Jon Harris (Missouri State), RHP Blake Hickman (Iowa), RHP Eric Hanhold (Florida), RHP James Kaprelian (UCLA), RHP Kolton Mahoney (BYU), LHP Travis Bergen (Kennesaw State), RHP Jon Duplantier (Rice), RHP Josh Sborz (Virginia), RHP Ryan Burr (Arizona State), LHP Garrett Cleavinger (Oregon), RHP Seth McGarry (Florida Atlantic)
College hitters: SS Kal Simmons (Kennesaw State), CF Andrew Stevenson (LSU), 2B Edwin Rios (FIU), SS C.J. Hinojosa (Texas), C Taylor Ward (Fresno State), RF Rhett Wiseman (Vanderbilt), SS Blake Trahan (Louisiana Lafayette), LF Donnie Dewees (North Florida), CF Harrison Bader (Florida), 3B David Thompson (Miami), RF Joe McCarthy (Virginia), LF Isiah Gilliam (Chipola JC), 3B Matt Gonzalez (Georgia Tech), LF Brandon Sanger (Florida Atlantic), 3B Travis Maezes (Michigan), CF Braden Bishop (Washington), CF Skye Bolt (North Carolina)
Scouting the Top 2015 July 2nd Prospects.
I spent last week at a 4-day showcase in Ft. Lauderdale, FL for July 2nd eligible players from the Dominican Prospect League, then went to a 5-day tournament in Jupiter, FL for the top high school travel teams, which included many top draft prospects. I’ll cover the Jupiter tournament and players rising/falling on draft boards later this week. That said, this year’s tournament didn’t have the out-of-nowhere pop-up prospect or mid-round player jumping into the first round that we’ve had in past years, so my rankings from last month are still pretty close to what I have right now.
The DPL showcase was my first time seeing many of the top 2015 July 2nd prospects. I was last in the Dominican in January for a week of showcases for 2014 prospects and the DPL and rival International Prospect League (IPL) both briefly showcased their top 2015 prospects when many of them were 14 years old. So, I’d seen some of these players before, but we’re in the part of their development where big physical changes can come in a few months, so every new look will shuffle any scout’s rankings. If you’re looking for the next July 2nd super prospect, I wrote about a kid in the 2016 class, Venezuelan switch-hitting shortstop Kevin Maitan, last month and some video of him popped up since then.
As I talked about in more depth last year, the biggest effect that the new international bonus pools had on July 2nd signings is teams agreeing to verbal deals with players far earlier than they had in the past. Essentially, MLB put a soft cap on spending that at least 25 teams stay under each year, so the best way to make the most of a fixed budget is to get discounts by locking up targeted players as early as possible. MLB didn’t like this and some associated things that came with this shift in the industry and is basically trying to create, via recent rule changes, a “July 2nd season” that starts in January , though nearly everyone from players to agents to scouts to executives think the recent rule change causes more problems than it solves (more on the details of this situation from Ben Badler).
I give you that background to set the stage for this July 2nd with an international draft looming somewhere in the future (educated guesses have it at 2-5 years away, with many executives thinking it may never work, but will definitely be tried). Clubs that went over their pools last year (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Brewers) can’t spend over $300,000 on any player this year and next year while some clubs coming off of the penalties from recent spending sprees (Cubs, Rangers) have a chance to reenter the top end of the market after a year off.
International bonus pools for 2015 haven’t been released yet, but they generally range from $2 million to $5 million in reverse order of the standings, very similar to draft picks. The penalty for going more than 15% over your bonus pool changed last year from a one-year ban on signings over $250,000 to a two-year ban on signings over $300,000, as an adjustment to multiple clubs taking the penalty in the first few years of the new rules.
I was told a few players with the DPL didn’t make this stateside trip and likely won’t be working out for scouts anymore because they’re believed to already have verbal deals worked out. The best prospect of this bunch not making the trip has a name you’ll recognize: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. I won’t mention the team that every scout I talked to said Guerrero has a deal with, but the rumored price tag is $3.2 million. Here’s a video from the only time I scouted him, in January 2014 in the DPL underclass showcase.
As you can see, it’s a mature body and I’m told he’s gotten even bigger since then, but his bat speed and raw power have also further developed to possibly both be best in the class. He doesn’t have the ridiculous arm strength of his father and may eventually have to move to first base from the outfield. It’s mostly bat here and some scouts think the rumored price is too steep, but every scout I talked to agrees that he’s one of the best, if not the best bat in the class. In fairness, it’s not hard to find a rival scout that thinks any top-of-the-market bonus is too much for that player’s talent.
Here’s some quick reports and video on the top players that did make the trip to Ft. Lauderdale. I have video of all the players mentioned and I’ll post them over time, but for time purposes (I’m now at the Arizona Fall League) and also context for July 2nd (I’ll see almost all of these players again in January when they may be different players altogether), I won’t be putting up the dozens of videos I could be posting. I’m told there’s some good players in the IPL, there’s obviously other Dominican prospects that don’t play in either league and then there’s Venezuela and other Latin countries that all aren’t included in this article; I should be seeing the best of these players in January. For these reasons and others, I can’t say with any certainty at this point if this class is much better or worse than past classes and most scouts aren’t inclined to call it significantly better or worse than previous classes, either.
I should also note that these kids are 15 or 16 and most won’t even play organized ball in America until they’re 17 or 18, so it’s very early to be drawing conclusions and things can still change drastically, but we have some solid indicators to judge from so far. I also only mention a team with one of the players below because it’s still really early for clubs to be making final decisions; this is the time when clubs are narrowing down a long list of potential seven figure targets to a couple players, so they’re particularly cagey about which team is on which player right now.
CF Starling Heredia may be the top prospect in this class and his price tag is rumored to be around $3.5 million, with multiple scouts mentioning the Cubs as the most interested team, though that isn’t a done deal by any means. Heredia hit some balls out to center field in BP and ran a 6.62 time in the 60, both plus tools to go with his plus bat speed. His speed plays down a bit in games right now, but it’s common for kids like this to get a little faster in the next few years.
He’s advanced at the plate for his age because, despite a leg kick some coaches would want to immediately tone down, Heredia does a good job staying balanced, keeping his head very still and tucking his hands in to get around on the inside pitch. His swing still breaks down in a couple game swings above, but some teenage toolsheds never show that level of feel for a swing, especially with that Manny Ramirez-style swing that’s so common on the island.
Heredia’s arm is solid average and he made a lot of contact in the games with an advanced approach compared to his peers in the same showcase. His body is close to maxed-out and he may lose a step, but Heredia has more than enough tools to profile as an everyday guy in a corner if that’s where he ends up.
I should note before the predictable flood of comments saying, “there’s no way this kid is that big and fast and 15-years-old” (probably with more spelling errors) that there is a very similar player to Heredia in the states by the name of Ronald Washington. Washington is the top prep prospect (if you can even say that) for the 2017 MLB Draft and has nearly the same mature frame and above average tools of Heredia. Their birthdays are less than a month apart, but no one is asking these questions about Washington, so you shouldn’t ask them about Heredia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgAYcy9NwyA
SS Wander Javier looks to be sure to get a seven figure bonus, but the scouts that like him think he may get over $2 million. He ran a 6.76 (55 timed speed), and while I never got a good time in the game, he looks to be more of an average runner in-game, though as mentioned with Heredia, at this age kids still get faster and get quicker first steps. Javier makes the most of solid but not spectacular defensive tools, giving him a chance to stay at the position long term.
He projects for at least average raw power and he has solid feel to hit in games, but you can see above that his swing can get a little out of sorts in game situations. At this showcase, his body lean/lunge caused his bat to lag behind his body and his lead arm to bar out. Javier has a higher maintenance swing with a longer stride, higher leg kick, more head movement and more variation than Heredia. Javier will have to tone this down soon but, even with borderline bad mechanics at times, Javier rarely swung and missed and showed good feel for the bat head with surprising pop for his size/age/strength.
These swing issues are usually fixable and often work themselves out with maturity; this toolset isn’t easy to find. Javier is a prospect where how much you’re willing to pay will be determined by how coachable he is in your private workouts, how big his parents are (as a proxy for how much weight/strength he’ll add) and other broad indicators, because the ability is here and he plays the right position, but a lot of work is needed so you need to know how likely he is to make the adjustments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNPRutFizv8
RF Franklin Reyes is easy to appreciate as a big kid (listed at 6’4/190) with plus bat speed and raw power I project to be a 65. He takes healthy cuts in games and BP but shows an ability to adjust his swing to make contact, though he still needs to tone it down another notch or two in pro ball.
Reyes has an obvious power approach to his swing, with the deep load and broad base to maximize his leverage and power. He has a longer stride than you like to see at this age, but is more like Heredia than Javier in that he still balances himself well and Reyes’ plus bat speed helps him catch up when his timing is off. It’s a longer bat path, but long limbs is part of the reason Reyes has all this power, so it only makes sense to leverage that ability; he’s still making consistent contact and adjustments come once that stops being the case.
His head stays still once he gets into a squat, but in some of the above swings, Reyes overstrides, lunges and has his body lead his hands. Reyes makes this work by not barring his front arm then launching at the pitch; he is impressively coordinated at mechanically pulling off a max effort swing for his age. Reyes would be better off in pro ball toning this down a bit and letting the ball travel deeper because as the pitchers start throwing harder, there’s less room for some of this mechanical noise.
There’s some similarities to Cubs prospect and 2013 July 2nd signee RF Eloy Jimenez, who signed for $2.8 million, but Reyes ran a 7.21 time in the 60 and is a below average runner that isn’t quite as gifted athletically or with the smoother contact swing like Jimenez. Reyes’ above average arm means he profiles in right field like Jimenez but he’ll probably get a lower bonus; at this point, it looks like he’ll be in the $2 million area.
While Reyes seems easier to get excited about than Javier, the track record of July 2nd prospects who can’t even play an up-the-middle position at age 14 or 15 isn’t encouraging. Scouts tend to opt for the up-the-middle player with a broader base of tools at this stage of development, but there’s still plenty of time that Reyes and Javier (or even Jimenez) could flip and it only takes one team to hand out bonuses that disagree with the industry consensus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43QsFi1LQcw
The best of a so-so group of pitchers that made the trip was RHP Luis Medina. He sat 89-91 and hit 94 mph in a short outing but one scout told me he saw Medina a few weeks before and he sat 93-95, hitting 96 mph. It obviously isn’t a super clean or polished delivery, but the frame has some projection, the arm works, he has some feel to spin an average or better curveball and the arm speed is elite. There predictably isn’t much of a changeup at this stage either, but Medina looks like a sure seven figure guy right now and there’s time for him to develop some starter traits before signing.
Other prospects in a deep DPL group that are in contention for a seven figure bonus: RF Juan Soto (smooth lefty cut and projectable frame with above average power potential), RF Robert Barreras (big kid at 6’3/190 with plus bat speed, raw power and arm strength to go with above average speed, but some work to do making contact), SS Onil Cruz (long lanky kid reminds me of Nick Gordon at the same age), C Daniel Santos (good athlete with chance to stick behind the plate, a plus arm, some feel to hit and a little pop), CF Jefry Ramos (above average bat speed and power potential to go with plus-plus timed speed, but still rough around the edges), 3B Welin Liriano (above average bat speed and raw power with a chance to be solid defensively at third) and SS Jeison Guzman (advanced defensive shortstop with average-ish tools but good contact ability and polish).
The DPL showcase was my first time seeing many of the top 2015 July 2nd prospects. I was last in the Dominican in January for a week of showcases for 2014 prospects and the DPL and rival International Prospect League (IPL) both briefly showcased their top 2015 prospects when many of them were 14 years old. So, I’d seen some of these players before, but we’re in the part of their development where big physical changes can come in a few months, so every new look will shuffle any scout’s rankings. If you’re looking for the next July 2nd super prospect, I wrote about a kid in the 2016 class, Venezuelan switch-hitting shortstop Kevin Maitan, last month and some video of him popped up since then.
As I talked about in more depth last year, the biggest effect that the new international bonus pools had on July 2nd signings is teams agreeing to verbal deals with players far earlier than they had in the past. Essentially, MLB put a soft cap on spending that at least 25 teams stay under each year, so the best way to make the most of a fixed budget is to get discounts by locking up targeted players as early as possible. MLB didn’t like this and some associated things that came with this shift in the industry and is basically trying to create, via recent rule changes, a “July 2nd season” that starts in January , though nearly everyone from players to agents to scouts to executives think the recent rule change causes more problems than it solves (more on the details of this situation from Ben Badler).
I give you that background to set the stage for this July 2nd with an international draft looming somewhere in the future (educated guesses have it at 2-5 years away, with many executives thinking it may never work, but will definitely be tried). Clubs that went over their pools last year (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Brewers) can’t spend over $300,000 on any player this year and next year while some clubs coming off of the penalties from recent spending sprees (Cubs, Rangers) have a chance to reenter the top end of the market after a year off.
International bonus pools for 2015 haven’t been released yet, but they generally range from $2 million to $5 million in reverse order of the standings, very similar to draft picks. The penalty for going more than 15% over your bonus pool changed last year from a one-year ban on signings over $250,000 to a two-year ban on signings over $300,000, as an adjustment to multiple clubs taking the penalty in the first few years of the new rules.
I was told a few players with the DPL didn’t make this stateside trip and likely won’t be working out for scouts anymore because they’re believed to already have verbal deals worked out. The best prospect of this bunch not making the trip has a name you’ll recognize: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. I won’t mention the team that every scout I talked to said Guerrero has a deal with, but the rumored price tag is $3.2 million. Here’s a video from the only time I scouted him, in January 2014 in the DPL underclass showcase.
As you can see, it’s a mature body and I’m told he’s gotten even bigger since then, but his bat speed and raw power have also further developed to possibly both be best in the class. He doesn’t have the ridiculous arm strength of his father and may eventually have to move to first base from the outfield. It’s mostly bat here and some scouts think the rumored price is too steep, but every scout I talked to agrees that he’s one of the best, if not the best bat in the class. In fairness, it’s not hard to find a rival scout that thinks any top-of-the-market bonus is too much for that player’s talent.
Here’s some quick reports and video on the top players that did make the trip to Ft. Lauderdale. I have video of all the players mentioned and I’ll post them over time, but for time purposes (I’m now at the Arizona Fall League) and also context for July 2nd (I’ll see almost all of these players again in January when they may be different players altogether), I won’t be putting up the dozens of videos I could be posting. I’m told there’s some good players in the IPL, there’s obviously other Dominican prospects that don’t play in either league and then there’s Venezuela and other Latin countries that all aren’t included in this article; I should be seeing the best of these players in January. For these reasons and others, I can’t say with any certainty at this point if this class is much better or worse than past classes and most scouts aren’t inclined to call it significantly better or worse than previous classes, either.
I should also note that these kids are 15 or 16 and most won’t even play organized ball in America until they’re 17 or 18, so it’s very early to be drawing conclusions and things can still change drastically, but we have some solid indicators to judge from so far. I also only mention a team with one of the players below because it’s still really early for clubs to be making final decisions; this is the time when clubs are narrowing down a long list of potential seven figure targets to a couple players, so they’re particularly cagey about which team is on which player right now.
CF Starling Heredia may be the top prospect in this class and his price tag is rumored to be around $3.5 million, with multiple scouts mentioning the Cubs as the most interested team, though that isn’t a done deal by any means. Heredia hit some balls out to center field in BP and ran a 6.62 time in the 60, both plus tools to go with his plus bat speed. His speed plays down a bit in games right now, but it’s common for kids like this to get a little faster in the next few years.
He’s advanced at the plate for his age because, despite a leg kick some coaches would want to immediately tone down, Heredia does a good job staying balanced, keeping his head very still and tucking his hands in to get around on the inside pitch. His swing still breaks down in a couple game swings above, but some teenage toolsheds never show that level of feel for a swing, especially with that Manny Ramirez-style swing that’s so common on the island.
Heredia’s arm is solid average and he made a lot of contact in the games with an advanced approach compared to his peers in the same showcase. His body is close to maxed-out and he may lose a step, but Heredia has more than enough tools to profile as an everyday guy in a corner if that’s where he ends up.
I should note before the predictable flood of comments saying, “there’s no way this kid is that big and fast and 15-years-old” (probably with more spelling errors) that there is a very similar player to Heredia in the states by the name of Ronald Washington. Washington is the top prep prospect (if you can even say that) for the 2017 MLB Draft and has nearly the same mature frame and above average tools of Heredia. Their birthdays are less than a month apart, but no one is asking these questions about Washington, so you shouldn’t ask them about Heredia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgAYcy9NwyA
SS Wander Javier looks to be sure to get a seven figure bonus, but the scouts that like him think he may get over $2 million. He ran a 6.76 (55 timed speed), and while I never got a good time in the game, he looks to be more of an average runner in-game, though as mentioned with Heredia, at this age kids still get faster and get quicker first steps. Javier makes the most of solid but not spectacular defensive tools, giving him a chance to stay at the position long term.
He projects for at least average raw power and he has solid feel to hit in games, but you can see above that his swing can get a little out of sorts in game situations. At this showcase, his body lean/lunge caused his bat to lag behind his body and his lead arm to bar out. Javier has a higher maintenance swing with a longer stride, higher leg kick, more head movement and more variation than Heredia. Javier will have to tone this down soon but, even with borderline bad mechanics at times, Javier rarely swung and missed and showed good feel for the bat head with surprising pop for his size/age/strength.
These swing issues are usually fixable and often work themselves out with maturity; this toolset isn’t easy to find. Javier is a prospect where how much you’re willing to pay will be determined by how coachable he is in your private workouts, how big his parents are (as a proxy for how much weight/strength he’ll add) and other broad indicators, because the ability is here and he plays the right position, but a lot of work is needed so you need to know how likely he is to make the adjustments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNPRutFizv8
RF Franklin Reyes is easy to appreciate as a big kid (listed at 6’4/190) with plus bat speed and raw power I project to be a 65. He takes healthy cuts in games and BP but shows an ability to adjust his swing to make contact, though he still needs to tone it down another notch or two in pro ball.
Reyes has an obvious power approach to his swing, with the deep load and broad base to maximize his leverage and power. He has a longer stride than you like to see at this age, but is more like Heredia than Javier in that he still balances himself well and Reyes’ plus bat speed helps him catch up when his timing is off. It’s a longer bat path, but long limbs is part of the reason Reyes has all this power, so it only makes sense to leverage that ability; he’s still making consistent contact and adjustments come once that stops being the case.
His head stays still once he gets into a squat, but in some of the above swings, Reyes overstrides, lunges and has his body lead his hands. Reyes makes this work by not barring his front arm then launching at the pitch; he is impressively coordinated at mechanically pulling off a max effort swing for his age. Reyes would be better off in pro ball toning this down a bit and letting the ball travel deeper because as the pitchers start throwing harder, there’s less room for some of this mechanical noise.
There’s some similarities to Cubs prospect and 2013 July 2nd signee RF Eloy Jimenez, who signed for $2.8 million, but Reyes ran a 7.21 time in the 60 and is a below average runner that isn’t quite as gifted athletically or with the smoother contact swing like Jimenez. Reyes’ above average arm means he profiles in right field like Jimenez but he’ll probably get a lower bonus; at this point, it looks like he’ll be in the $2 million area.
While Reyes seems easier to get excited about than Javier, the track record of July 2nd prospects who can’t even play an up-the-middle position at age 14 or 15 isn’t encouraging. Scouts tend to opt for the up-the-middle player with a broader base of tools at this stage of development, but there’s still plenty of time that Reyes and Javier (or even Jimenez) could flip and it only takes one team to hand out bonuses that disagree with the industry consensus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43QsFi1LQcw
The best of a so-so group of pitchers that made the trip was RHP Luis Medina. He sat 89-91 and hit 94 mph in a short outing but one scout told me he saw Medina a few weeks before and he sat 93-95, hitting 96 mph. It obviously isn’t a super clean or polished delivery, but the frame has some projection, the arm works, he has some feel to spin an average or better curveball and the arm speed is elite. There predictably isn’t much of a changeup at this stage either, but Medina looks like a sure seven figure guy right now and there’s time for him to develop some starter traits before signing.
Other prospects in a deep DPL group that are in contention for a seven figure bonus: RF Juan Soto (smooth lefty cut and projectable frame with above average power potential), RF Robert Barreras (big kid at 6’3/190 with plus bat speed, raw power and arm strength to go with above average speed, but some work to do making contact), SS Onil Cruz (long lanky kid reminds me of Nick Gordon at the same age), C Daniel Santos (good athlete with chance to stick behind the plate, a plus arm, some feel to hit and a little pop), CF Jefry Ramos (above average bat speed and power potential to go with plus-plus timed speed, but still rough around the edges), 3B Welin Liriano (above average bat speed and raw power with a chance to be solid defensively at third) and SS Jeison Guzman (advanced defensive shortstop with average-ish tools but good contact ability and polish).
Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale.
Background
The invention of the scale is credited to Branch Rickey and whether he intended it or not, it mirrors various scientific scales. 50 is major league average, then each 10 point increment represents a standard deviation better or worse than average. In a normal distribution, three standard deviations in either direction should include 99.7% of your sample, so that’s why the scale is 20 to 80 rather than 0 and 100. That said, the distribution of tools isn’t a normal curve for every tool, but is somewhere close to that for most.
The Basics
You’ve probably heard people call athletic hitters a “five-tool prospect.” While that is an overused and misunderstood term, they are referring to the 20-80 scouting scale. The five tools for position players are 1) Hitting 2) Power 3) Running 4) Fielding and 5) Throwing. The general use of the “five-tool” term is when all five are at least average (which is more rare than you’d think) and I generally only use it when all five are above average. It’s a shockingly small list of players over the history of baseball that have five plus tools, but if you ask around, scouts will tell you Bo Knows.
For hitters, these are the only five tools, despite many questions from readers about why we can’t expand it. Throwing accuracy is folded into the throwing tool grade (which is mostly arm strength since accuracy problems are often fixable) while fielding range, hands, instincts and all the components of defense are folded into the fielding grade. Base running skill and good jumps out of the batter’s box are also folded into the run grade. Many organizations and I will split power into game power (predicting big league power stats) and raw power (how far he can hit the ball in batting practice) but they are often the same and it’s simply a way with numbers to better explain the components of power (and also comment on the hit tool). The hit tool includes plate discipline (the most commonly asked-for sixth tool by the internet) but I’ll get more into why that is and how we can still project contact and on-base skill with one number in the article about the hit tool.
Though some teams have scouts grade each of these components, it’s the five core scouting grades that are paid attention to universally. It’s common practice in scouting reports for scouts to explain in the comments when, say a 55 fielding grade includes some 60 or higher components and some 50 or lower components, but often a 55 means a number of average to above skills and doesn’t merit much explanation. Scouts also use present and future grades for each tool. Present grades often are 20’s for high school players while, in the upper levels of the minors, the gap between present and future grades is very small. A present 20 and future 50 grade on a tool is noted as 20/50.
For pitchers, it is much more straightforward. Scouts grade each of their pitches (fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, splitter, cutter being the most common) on the 20-80 scale, then either grade the command of each pitch separately or have one overall command grade. Some teams will do grade for components of command (throwing quality strikes) with control (throwing it in the strike zone, usually closely following walk rate), pitchability (feel to sequence pitches, keep hitters off balance, etc.) and other similar things. Some clubs go so far as to have scouts grade deception, arm action (how clean/efficient/loose the arm swing is in back) and other components that the industry feels predict health. That said, the three core pitches (fastball, changeup, best breaking ball) and command are the four core grades that scouts use to make decisions and that inform the overall grade.
Objective Tool Grades
Tool Is Called Fastball Velo Batting Avg Homers RHH to 1B LHH to 1B 60 Yd Run
80 80 97 .320 40+ 4.00 3.90 6.3
75 96 .310 35-40 4.05 3.95 6.4
70 Plus Plus 95 .300 30-35 4.10 4.00 6.5
65 94 .290 27-30 4.15 4.05 6.6
60 Plus 93 .280 23-27 4.20 4.10 6.7
55 Above Avg 92 .270 19-22 4.25 4.15 6.8
50 Avg 90-91 .260 15-18 4.30 4.20 6.9-7.0
45 Below Avg 89 .250 12-15 4.35 4.25 7.1
40 88 .240 8-12 4.40 4.30 7.2
35 87 .230 5-8 4.45 4.35 7.3
30 86 .220 3-5 4.50 4.40 7.4
This is a table showing the tool grades (fastball for pitchers, hit, power and speed for hitters) that have objective scales that every scout uses to grade. These scales will vary team to team, possibly shifted one notch in either direction, or maybe separate grades for fastball velocity for righties/lefties or starter/reliever but these are essentially industry consensus scales.
An 80 tool is called 80. It’s really rare, so why do we need another name for it? 75 is almost never used because scouts will yell at you to make a choice and many don’t use 65, though it’s much more accepted than 75. These half grades like 65 and 75 don’t have separate terms because many teams use a 2-8 scale rather than 20-80 and 2-8 is the scale that was predominant when many of today’s top scouts were starting out. Now 20-80 is more commonly used, but often you’ll hear older scouts at the ballpark throwing out single numbers like 6 or 7 while we might call that a 65 here. It helps in my situation to have more numbers describe things when I’m trying to differentiate between literally hundreds of prospects that have 50 or 55 power grades, for example.
One more important addition to the scale that isn’t shown here is solid average (52.5) and fringe-average or fringy (47.5). Since so many tools fall close to 50 but you may clearly prefer one 50 to the other, many scouts will use these terms to differentiate. Again, given the thousands of players I’ll be grading, it makes sense to use this and it will show up as 45+ or 50+, since no scout has or ever will write 52.5 or 47.5 (they just put 50 then say fringy or solid average in the comments).
Fastball velocity is pretty self-explanatory and this is used as a starting point, with many other pieces of information leading to 1-2 notch moves up or down. As mentioned above, lefty/righty and starter/reliever can be taken into account (though I and many teams don’t do that, instead considering those factors in the overall grade at the end) while command, movement and deception are common other components to move up/down from the starting velocity grade.
I’ll go more into the batting average/on base/hit tool thing in the hit tool article but it seems like even the most statistically-inclined people agree this scale is kind of agreeable for what it’s trying to do. For homers, it’s a similar situation that I’ll get into later; ideally you’d like isolated power for projection purposes, but this scale works for what it’s trying to do.
For the two different run grade scale, we have the 60-yard dash, which is a combine-style showcase measure of straight-line speed akin to the 40 from the football combine while the home to first base times from either batter’s box are functional game speed. Often scouts use the raw times (comparing them with scouts nearby to verify accuracy) then round up/down based on wind/grass conditions for the 60 or how good of a jump out of the box and effort level on times to first base.
The Overall Player Grade
Hitter Starting Pitcher Relief Pitcher WAR
80 Top 1-2 #1 Starter —- 7.0
75 Top 2-3 #1 —- 6.0
70 Top 5 #1/2 —- 5.0
65 All-Star #2/3 —- 4.0
60 Plus #3 High Closer 3.0
55 Above Avg #3/4 Mid Closer 2.5
50 Avg Regular #4 Low CL/High SU 2.0
45 Platoon/Util #5 Low Setup 1.5
40 Bench Swing/Spot SP Middle RP 1.0
35 Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up 0.0
30 *Organizational *Organizational *Organizational -1.0
* “Organizational” is the term scouts use to describe a player that has no major league value; he’s just there to fill out a minor league roster and be a good influence on the prospects, though sometimes org players can outplay that projection.
** I didn’t continue down to 20 on either scale since it’s almost never relevant for players that I’ll be writing about or any of their tools, other than speed for big fat sluggers.
There have been plenty of articles here at FanGraphs breaking down this general idea and many adjacent ideas (and there will be more). I won’t profess that the scales I’m presenting here are perfect, but it’s a good combination of the objective, research-based scales and the more subjective ones that scouts have traditionally used (but are slowly becoming more objective as front offices have stat guys tweak them).
The concept that an 80 is just one or two big leaguers at each position is a traditional one while technically there could be a bunch of 7-win guys at any position. The “Top 1-2” notation for hitters is just to give an idea of typically how exclusive each group should be, realizing it isn’t always true.
Most scouts agree there are only ever 8-12 pitchers that could be called #1s or aces at any given time, but then there’s like 20 #2s and like 75 #3s. Many fans get tripped up by this term, thinking there are 30 of each type or that every team has exactly one version of each; that’s an understandable misunderstanding. Scouts see tiers of pitchers and call them #1, #2, #3 starters and this is one of those things you only fully understand when someone takes the time to explain to you what they mean.
Relievers are hard to value in this sense, as many people and scouts would say you’re crazy to not call Mariano Rivera an 80 since he’s the best ever. The problem is that assumes he’s as valuable as Mike Trout, which significantly fewer people believe, but still some people would (with some statistical adjustments for postseason leverage giving them something to point at). The WAR framework gives us a way to figure out where most players can be described and most elite relievers max out at around 3 wins, with very few racking up multiple seasons that good. You’d take a 60 position player over a 60 starting pitcher and either over a 60 reliever (all things being equal) due to attrition and these overall grades do their best to make the comparisons simpler.
The WAR-to-overall-player-grade conversion also isn’t perfect, so don’t assume someone is an 80 for the rest of time after one 7-win season by one of the WAR metrics. It’s a guide to convert a scouting grade convention for minor leaguers and amateur players to a scale that can be understood for purposes like valuing players in trades. The WAR grade here is meant as a true talent level, so crazy BABIP and UZR swings or playing time varying year-to-year doesn’t confuse us. I also may project a player’s upside or future tool grades to be a 3-win player, but the overall grade is subjective and includes various types of risk in the determination.
Many teams call their overall grade an OFP, short for Overall Future Potential. One of the clubs I worked for called their overall grade FV, short for Future Value, as that more accurately describes what this number is trying to do. The scout isn’t just averaging the core future tool grades; he’s trying to use one number to describe how valuable this player is on the overall player market, taking into account risk, distance to ceiling and other factors.
The invention of the scale is credited to Branch Rickey and whether he intended it or not, it mirrors various scientific scales. 50 is major league average, then each 10 point increment represents a standard deviation better or worse than average. In a normal distribution, three standard deviations in either direction should include 99.7% of your sample, so that’s why the scale is 20 to 80 rather than 0 and 100. That said, the distribution of tools isn’t a normal curve for every tool, but is somewhere close to that for most.
The Basics
You’ve probably heard people call athletic hitters a “five-tool prospect.” While that is an overused and misunderstood term, they are referring to the 20-80 scouting scale. The five tools for position players are 1) Hitting 2) Power 3) Running 4) Fielding and 5) Throwing. The general use of the “five-tool” term is when all five are at least average (which is more rare than you’d think) and I generally only use it when all five are above average. It’s a shockingly small list of players over the history of baseball that have five plus tools, but if you ask around, scouts will tell you Bo Knows.
For hitters, these are the only five tools, despite many questions from readers about why we can’t expand it. Throwing accuracy is folded into the throwing tool grade (which is mostly arm strength since accuracy problems are often fixable) while fielding range, hands, instincts and all the components of defense are folded into the fielding grade. Base running skill and good jumps out of the batter’s box are also folded into the run grade. Many organizations and I will split power into game power (predicting big league power stats) and raw power (how far he can hit the ball in batting practice) but they are often the same and it’s simply a way with numbers to better explain the components of power (and also comment on the hit tool). The hit tool includes plate discipline (the most commonly asked-for sixth tool by the internet) but I’ll get more into why that is and how we can still project contact and on-base skill with one number in the article about the hit tool.
Though some teams have scouts grade each of these components, it’s the five core scouting grades that are paid attention to universally. It’s common practice in scouting reports for scouts to explain in the comments when, say a 55 fielding grade includes some 60 or higher components and some 50 or lower components, but often a 55 means a number of average to above skills and doesn’t merit much explanation. Scouts also use present and future grades for each tool. Present grades often are 20’s for high school players while, in the upper levels of the minors, the gap between present and future grades is very small. A present 20 and future 50 grade on a tool is noted as 20/50.
For pitchers, it is much more straightforward. Scouts grade each of their pitches (fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, splitter, cutter being the most common) on the 20-80 scale, then either grade the command of each pitch separately or have one overall command grade. Some teams will do grade for components of command (throwing quality strikes) with control (throwing it in the strike zone, usually closely following walk rate), pitchability (feel to sequence pitches, keep hitters off balance, etc.) and other similar things. Some clubs go so far as to have scouts grade deception, arm action (how clean/efficient/loose the arm swing is in back) and other components that the industry feels predict health. That said, the three core pitches (fastball, changeup, best breaking ball) and command are the four core grades that scouts use to make decisions and that inform the overall grade.
Objective Tool Grades
Tool Is Called Fastball Velo Batting Avg Homers RHH to 1B LHH to 1B 60 Yd Run
80 80 97 .320 40+ 4.00 3.90 6.3
75 96 .310 35-40 4.05 3.95 6.4
70 Plus Plus 95 .300 30-35 4.10 4.00 6.5
65 94 .290 27-30 4.15 4.05 6.6
60 Plus 93 .280 23-27 4.20 4.10 6.7
55 Above Avg 92 .270 19-22 4.25 4.15 6.8
50 Avg 90-91 .260 15-18 4.30 4.20 6.9-7.0
45 Below Avg 89 .250 12-15 4.35 4.25 7.1
40 88 .240 8-12 4.40 4.30 7.2
35 87 .230 5-8 4.45 4.35 7.3
30 86 .220 3-5 4.50 4.40 7.4
This is a table showing the tool grades (fastball for pitchers, hit, power and speed for hitters) that have objective scales that every scout uses to grade. These scales will vary team to team, possibly shifted one notch in either direction, or maybe separate grades for fastball velocity for righties/lefties or starter/reliever but these are essentially industry consensus scales.
An 80 tool is called 80. It’s really rare, so why do we need another name for it? 75 is almost never used because scouts will yell at you to make a choice and many don’t use 65, though it’s much more accepted than 75. These half grades like 65 and 75 don’t have separate terms because many teams use a 2-8 scale rather than 20-80 and 2-8 is the scale that was predominant when many of today’s top scouts were starting out. Now 20-80 is more commonly used, but often you’ll hear older scouts at the ballpark throwing out single numbers like 6 or 7 while we might call that a 65 here. It helps in my situation to have more numbers describe things when I’m trying to differentiate between literally hundreds of prospects that have 50 or 55 power grades, for example.
One more important addition to the scale that isn’t shown here is solid average (52.5) and fringe-average or fringy (47.5). Since so many tools fall close to 50 but you may clearly prefer one 50 to the other, many scouts will use these terms to differentiate. Again, given the thousands of players I’ll be grading, it makes sense to use this and it will show up as 45+ or 50+, since no scout has or ever will write 52.5 or 47.5 (they just put 50 then say fringy or solid average in the comments).
Fastball velocity is pretty self-explanatory and this is used as a starting point, with many other pieces of information leading to 1-2 notch moves up or down. As mentioned above, lefty/righty and starter/reliever can be taken into account (though I and many teams don’t do that, instead considering those factors in the overall grade at the end) while command, movement and deception are common other components to move up/down from the starting velocity grade.
I’ll go more into the batting average/on base/hit tool thing in the hit tool article but it seems like even the most statistically-inclined people agree this scale is kind of agreeable for what it’s trying to do. For homers, it’s a similar situation that I’ll get into later; ideally you’d like isolated power for projection purposes, but this scale works for what it’s trying to do.
For the two different run grade scale, we have the 60-yard dash, which is a combine-style showcase measure of straight-line speed akin to the 40 from the football combine while the home to first base times from either batter’s box are functional game speed. Often scouts use the raw times (comparing them with scouts nearby to verify accuracy) then round up/down based on wind/grass conditions for the 60 or how good of a jump out of the box and effort level on times to first base.
The Overall Player Grade
Hitter Starting Pitcher Relief Pitcher WAR
80 Top 1-2 #1 Starter —- 7.0
75 Top 2-3 #1 —- 6.0
70 Top 5 #1/2 —- 5.0
65 All-Star #2/3 —- 4.0
60 Plus #3 High Closer 3.0
55 Above Avg #3/4 Mid Closer 2.5
50 Avg Regular #4 Low CL/High SU 2.0
45 Platoon/Util #5 Low Setup 1.5
40 Bench Swing/Spot SP Middle RP 1.0
35 Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up 0.0
30 *Organizational *Organizational *Organizational -1.0
* “Organizational” is the term scouts use to describe a player that has no major league value; he’s just there to fill out a minor league roster and be a good influence on the prospects, though sometimes org players can outplay that projection.
** I didn’t continue down to 20 on either scale since it’s almost never relevant for players that I’ll be writing about or any of their tools, other than speed for big fat sluggers.
There have been plenty of articles here at FanGraphs breaking down this general idea and many adjacent ideas (and there will be more). I won’t profess that the scales I’m presenting here are perfect, but it’s a good combination of the objective, research-based scales and the more subjective ones that scouts have traditionally used (but are slowly becoming more objective as front offices have stat guys tweak them).
The concept that an 80 is just one or two big leaguers at each position is a traditional one while technically there could be a bunch of 7-win guys at any position. The “Top 1-2” notation for hitters is just to give an idea of typically how exclusive each group should be, realizing it isn’t always true.
Most scouts agree there are only ever 8-12 pitchers that could be called #1s or aces at any given time, but then there’s like 20 #2s and like 75 #3s. Many fans get tripped up by this term, thinking there are 30 of each type or that every team has exactly one version of each; that’s an understandable misunderstanding. Scouts see tiers of pitchers and call them #1, #2, #3 starters and this is one of those things you only fully understand when someone takes the time to explain to you what they mean.
Relievers are hard to value in this sense, as many people and scouts would say you’re crazy to not call Mariano Rivera an 80 since he’s the best ever. The problem is that assumes he’s as valuable as Mike Trout, which significantly fewer people believe, but still some people would (with some statistical adjustments for postseason leverage giving them something to point at). The WAR framework gives us a way to figure out where most players can be described and most elite relievers max out at around 3 wins, with very few racking up multiple seasons that good. You’d take a 60 position player over a 60 starting pitcher and either over a 60 reliever (all things being equal) due to attrition and these overall grades do their best to make the comparisons simpler.
The WAR-to-overall-player-grade conversion also isn’t perfect, so don’t assume someone is an 80 for the rest of time after one 7-win season by one of the WAR metrics. It’s a guide to convert a scouting grade convention for minor leaguers and amateur players to a scale that can be understood for purposes like valuing players in trades. The WAR grade here is meant as a true talent level, so crazy BABIP and UZR swings or playing time varying year-to-year doesn’t confuse us. I also may project a player’s upside or future tool grades to be a 3-win player, but the overall grade is subjective and includes various types of risk in the determination.
Many teams call their overall grade an OFP, short for Overall Future Potential. One of the clubs I worked for called their overall grade FV, short for Future Value, as that more accurately describes what this number is trying to do. The scout isn’t just averaging the core future tool grades; he’s trying to use one number to describe how valuable this player is on the overall player market, taking into account risk, distance to ceiling and other factors.
Top 200 Prospects: The Process and Introduction.
Tomorrow, we’ll be officially revealing our own version of the Top 100 prospects list that has become a staple of the baseball community. However, with more than 100 prospects receiving Future Value grades of 50 or higher, we decided to not arbitrarily cut off the list at 100 names, and ordered every prospect who achieved that FV score: 142 players in all. Because the Top 142 prospects sounds a little strange, however, I also included a secondary tier of unranked-but-still-listed prospects whose FVs fall on the higher side of 45; these are guys who weren’t too far off the list themselves, and in many cases, will be strong candidates for next year’s list.
So, tomorrow, we’ll unveil the FanGraphs Top 200 Prospect list. Today, though, I wanted to give you a little bit of background on how I arrived at these grades and rankings, as well as preemptively answering some questions that may arise about certain types of players.
What The Tool Grades Mean
If you’re dropping into my minor league prospects rankings for the first time, thanks for coming, but there’s also a few things I should probably explain so that the list doesn’t look like gibberish to you. I use the 20-80 scouting scale, the same grading scale that pro scouts use to grade players at every level of baseball. It grades a player’s traditional tools — hit, hit for power, speed, fielding, throwing, each of a pitcher’s pitches, and his command — against major league average for each tool. Average is 50, above average is 55, below average is 45, plus is 60, plus-plus is 70 and 80 is just called 80 because it’s so rare and special that it doesn’t need another name; think Giancarlo Stanton‘s power, Billy Hamilton‘s speed, or Randy Johnson‘s fastball. A 60 or better off-speed pitch is the standard for being called a “swing and miss” pitch; you need two 60 pitches and at least an average third pitch and command to be a #3 starter, for example.
If you want to go into further depth, then I’d suggest checking out the Scouting Explained links above, where I go into more detail about how scouts do what they do. These tool grades aren’t directly applicable to stats in every case — speed is just speed, not the ability to steal bases — but I go into much more detail on each player and project his potential big league numbers, his ETA to reach that level, a risk grade and more on the team prospect lists, linked to above and in each player’s capsule on the list. Since there are so many players that have tools that are 45 or 50, I use a + to denote 47.5 (fringe-average or fringy) and 52.5 (solid-average), or the half-grades between these most common grades, 45, 50 and 55.
Using the 20-80 Scouting Scale
To convert these all-encompassing Future Value (FV) grades into something you can wrap your arms around, take a look at these scales, taken from the introduction to the Scouting Explained series
Hitter Starting Pitcher Relief Pitcher WAR
80 Top 1-2 #1 Starter —- 7.0
75 Top 2-3 #1 —- 6.0
70 Top 5 #1/2 —- 5.0
65 All-Star #2/3 —- 4.0
60 Plus #3 High Closer 3.0
55 Above Avg #3/4 Mid Closer 2.5
50 Avg Regular #4 Low CL/High SU 2.0
45 Platoon/Util #5 Low Setup 1.5
40 Bench Swing/Spot SP Middle RP 1.0
35 Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up 0.0
30 *Organizational *Organizational *Organizational -1.0
* “Organizational” is the term scouts use to describe a player that has no major league value; he’s just there to fill out a minor league roster and be a good influence on the prospects, though sometimes org players can outplay that projection.
** I didn’t continue down to 20 on either scale since it’s almost never relevant for players that I’ll be writing about or any of their tools, other than speed for big fat sluggers or selected Molina brothers.
The FV grade primarily takes into account upside, likelihood to reach that potential, and distance to the big leagues. So, for a big league ready player with relatively little risk that I peg as a 55 FV — Rays RF Steven Souza, for example — this means I think his most likely peak season(s) in the big leagues will be +2.5 to + 2.9 wins, with a relatively equal chance of his peak being a notch higher or lower than that. Because of injuries and general attrition, I tend to knock pitchers down one notch FV-wise from where their report would suggest, which scouts also do.
It’s a little harder to explain with lower minors players, but take Nationals RHP Reynaldo Lopez as an example. If you’re a GM looking to trade Souza — let’s say because he’s blocked at the big league level and is ready for regular for playing time — who might need to clear a roster spot anyway, and you’d like to make a one-for-one trade for a player with more risk/reward, then Lopez might be considered an equivalent. His most likely peak season is also +2.5 to +2.9 wins, but the range of possibilities is much wider, he’s still years from making the big leagues, and he could end up being nothing of big league value or he could turn into a +5 WAR frontline starter. Lopez may have more upside, but FV incorporates risk as well.
This chart is a little less useful for the list, but people always want to know how many home runs a power grade converts to, so here’s the scale scouts use to determine various individual tool grades, taken from the same article.
Tool Is Called Fastball Velo Batting Avg Homers RHH to 1B LHH to 1B 60 Yd Run
80 80 97 .320 40+ 4.00 3.90 6.3
75 96 .310 35-40 4.05 3.95 6.4
70 Plus Plus 95 .300 30-35 4.10 4.00 6.5
65 94 .290 27-30 4.15 4.05 6.6
60 Plus 93 .280 23-27 4.20 4.10 6.7
55 Above Avg 92 .270 19-22 4.25 4.15 6.8
50 Avg 90-91 .260 15-18 4.30 4.20 6.9-7.0
45 Below Avg 89 .250 12-15 4.35 4.25 7.1
40 88 .240 8-12 4.40 4.30 7.2
35 87 .230 5-8 4.45 4.35 7.3
30 86 .220 3-5 4.50 4.40 7.4
The last three are for speed, running from home to first, or a showcase-style timed-run in the outfield. Notice that the hitting tool grade only refers to batting average, so some prospects with strong plate discipline — Jesse Winker and Michael Conforto, for example — are rated higher than you’d expect given their pure hit tool grade. The hit tool is just meant to grade the ability to make contact and the raw tools (bat speed, eye-hand coordination, etc). I go into much more detail about how scouts do this and what it means in the six-part hit tool series linked to at the top of the article.
The Limitations of Prospect Lists
People like reading these lists and this is roughly the time of year these lists are normally made; that’s why this thing exists. Much like mock drafts, there are limitations to what I can tell you via a list and there’s also a false sense of precision this creates, but it’s a popular and easy format to dispense information. Try not to get too bent out of shape if you think some guy that’s 23rd should be 45th; that is so much closer to being the exact same thing than many people realize.
You might notice that there are runs where there’s five or more pitchers or hitters in a row. I could split them all up and never have more than one or two of the same type of player in a row, but players do tend to get grouped together, and when they’re almost exactly the same, it makes sense to rank them next to each other. You might point to the glut of similar shortstops in the 60-90 range and I’ll admit you could rank those guys in whatever order you want. There is a run of pitchers with injury or command questions in the 54-76 range and potential mid-rotation starters in the 17-37 range that I had a lot of trouble separating, shuffling the order a number of times. If there is some “correct” way to rank these players, it would likely include more runs from a certain position like this than you’d expect.
Another limit of this list is exactly what it’s measuring. Players with 150 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched or more are not eligible, and players are ranked with the team that currently has them, with no notation to which team originally signed/drafted them. So, a team like the Rays that doesn’t trade away prospects and only trades for them will naturally be rewarded by this process, while the Tigers — who have been much more successful than Tampa at drafting and signing players — often trade their prospects once they have enough trade value to acquire a good big leaguer, so Detroit is inherently penalized by this process.
Young big league teams with lots of controllable talent will usually be darlings of these lists for years, then when the players get to the big leagues, it leaves a hole; we aren’t measuring young talent with this list, just rookie-eligible young talent. I’ll seek to remedy this in a number of ways over the next few weeks by adjusting this list for original signing organization and doing this same process for every big league player so we can have a more complete view of the talent at all levels of an organization.
How I Made the List
A couple weeks ago I went into detail about the process for making the list. The short version is the order prospects are put on the team lists might be different in this list because I talked to a wider group of people and collected more varied opinions. In general, if you see a tool-grade change in one place that disagrees with another place on the site, that means I likely got newer and better information and adjusted my rankings accordingly. As of today, this reflects everything I know in the best way I know how to consider it.
The general approach to the list is to try to reflect industry-wide trade value, via valuing upside, likelihood to reach it and distance to the big leagues, along with a few more, less-important factors. I’ve scouted for teams in the past and have seen the vast majority of these players before, often over multiple years, so my opinion is also folded in.
You can look at making this list like college admissions: there’s a cold, objective approach where you just line up qualifications and score everything. There’s a more subjective “Which player do you want?, Which player do you believe in?” that I try to balance. A couple players are ranked using the objective approach, where they would be if they had a huge 2015 season. Very few people would rank them that high right now, but I have conviction they’ll have a huge season, so I basically took a leap of faith six months in advance.
The Best Prospects Not on the List
Since I know you guys will ask and I’m prepared to answer, I’ll run down the top Cuban and domestic amateurs players and where they’d land in the top 200. Second baseman Hector Olivera turns 30 in a few months, so he isn’t eligible for the list since he’s so different than the guys here. This is also why I didn’t include Red Sox center fielder Rusney Castillo, who was on the Red Sox List, since I’d then also have to include Diamondbacks left fielder Yasmany Tomas and Pirates shortstop Jung-Ho Kang, and they don’t really fit on this list.
I won’t rank the best young Japanese professional talents or players still in Cuba since there’s still a lot of time or effort before they become threats to land on this list. Still, the best of that group is 20-year-old 6-foot-4 righty Shohei Otani with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan’s NPB. I recently talked to a scout who said Otani is a more physical Yu Darvish who throws even harder. Otani has hit 101 mph, has the stuff and command to be a frontline starter and would be comfortably in this top 10. Still, he won’t be available to major league teams for years due to the posting process, and his timeline is similar to Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Nineteen-year-old Cuban free agent 2B/3B/CF Yoan Moncada would be eighth, just behind Lucas Giolito and 18-year-old Florida high school shortstop Brendan Rodgers is the current favorite to go No. 1 overall in the draft. He’d fit in the 32nd range. Eighteen-year-old LHP Brady Aiken went No. 1 overall last year to the Houston Astros but didn’t sign and will be in this year’s draft, though he hasn’t picked a school yet (rumors are he’ll end up at IMG Post-Grad with Jacob Nix). Aiken would fit 46th overall. 21-year-old Duke University RHP Michael Matuella is a wild card who has No. 1 ability but has a very short track record of elite stuff and performance. He would be at No. 51, while a comparable talent, 18 year-old Cuban defector RHP Yadier Alvarez, would fit at No. 58.
Twenty-one-year-old Cuban free agent second baseman Andy Ibanez would be in the 143 to 200 group as a 45+ FV. I could place a couple more draft prospects but they’d likely fit in that last group with Ibanez now, with a chance a few emerge this spring, along with the obvious possibility that one of the top three prospects regress.
A Couple Last Notes
I link to many of the videos below, but the FanGraphs YouTube page has over 600 videos of players from every level of baseball, taken from the traditional scouting angles. I also do a podcast each week; here’s last week’s episode where I talked mostly about my recent trip to the Dominican Republic.
Once I finish all 30 teams’ lists, we’ll have a handy sortable database with all the rankings and tool grades you find on the site. Until then, I’ve also added the tool grades you see below on each player’s page. That’s a good landing spot for information on each player, with links to recent articles with more information than you’ll find here — like ETA and risk. Also, once I post all 30 lists, we’ll do final organizational rankings.
Alright, that seems like a long enough introduction. As one final tease before the list goes up tomorrow, new FanGraphs writer Sean Dolinar created some visual breakdowns of the of the demographics of the list, which we’ve included below. Check back tomorrow morning for all 200 names, and I’ll be hosting a Tuesday edition of my Prospect chat to answer questions about the list. Hopefully this tides you over until then.
So, tomorrow, we’ll unveil the FanGraphs Top 200 Prospect list. Today, though, I wanted to give you a little bit of background on how I arrived at these grades and rankings, as well as preemptively answering some questions that may arise about certain types of players.
What The Tool Grades Mean
If you’re dropping into my minor league prospects rankings for the first time, thanks for coming, but there’s also a few things I should probably explain so that the list doesn’t look like gibberish to you. I use the 20-80 scouting scale, the same grading scale that pro scouts use to grade players at every level of baseball. It grades a player’s traditional tools — hit, hit for power, speed, fielding, throwing, each of a pitcher’s pitches, and his command — against major league average for each tool. Average is 50, above average is 55, below average is 45, plus is 60, plus-plus is 70 and 80 is just called 80 because it’s so rare and special that it doesn’t need another name; think Giancarlo Stanton‘s power, Billy Hamilton‘s speed, or Randy Johnson‘s fastball. A 60 or better off-speed pitch is the standard for being called a “swing and miss” pitch; you need two 60 pitches and at least an average third pitch and command to be a #3 starter, for example.
If you want to go into further depth, then I’d suggest checking out the Scouting Explained links above, where I go into more detail about how scouts do what they do. These tool grades aren’t directly applicable to stats in every case — speed is just speed, not the ability to steal bases — but I go into much more detail on each player and project his potential big league numbers, his ETA to reach that level, a risk grade and more on the team prospect lists, linked to above and in each player’s capsule on the list. Since there are so many players that have tools that are 45 or 50, I use a + to denote 47.5 (fringe-average or fringy) and 52.5 (solid-average), or the half-grades between these most common grades, 45, 50 and 55.
Using the 20-80 Scouting Scale
To convert these all-encompassing Future Value (FV) grades into something you can wrap your arms around, take a look at these scales, taken from the introduction to the Scouting Explained series
Hitter Starting Pitcher Relief Pitcher WAR
80 Top 1-2 #1 Starter —- 7.0
75 Top 2-3 #1 —- 6.0
70 Top 5 #1/2 —- 5.0
65 All-Star #2/3 —- 4.0
60 Plus #3 High Closer 3.0
55 Above Avg #3/4 Mid Closer 2.5
50 Avg Regular #4 Low CL/High SU 2.0
45 Platoon/Util #5 Low Setup 1.5
40 Bench Swing/Spot SP Middle RP 1.0
35 Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up 0.0
30 *Organizational *Organizational *Organizational -1.0
* “Organizational” is the term scouts use to describe a player that has no major league value; he’s just there to fill out a minor league roster and be a good influence on the prospects, though sometimes org players can outplay that projection.
** I didn’t continue down to 20 on either scale since it’s almost never relevant for players that I’ll be writing about or any of their tools, other than speed for big fat sluggers or selected Molina brothers.
The FV grade primarily takes into account upside, likelihood to reach that potential, and distance to the big leagues. So, for a big league ready player with relatively little risk that I peg as a 55 FV — Rays RF Steven Souza, for example — this means I think his most likely peak season(s) in the big leagues will be +2.5 to + 2.9 wins, with a relatively equal chance of his peak being a notch higher or lower than that. Because of injuries and general attrition, I tend to knock pitchers down one notch FV-wise from where their report would suggest, which scouts also do.
It’s a little harder to explain with lower minors players, but take Nationals RHP Reynaldo Lopez as an example. If you’re a GM looking to trade Souza — let’s say because he’s blocked at the big league level and is ready for regular for playing time — who might need to clear a roster spot anyway, and you’d like to make a one-for-one trade for a player with more risk/reward, then Lopez might be considered an equivalent. His most likely peak season is also +2.5 to +2.9 wins, but the range of possibilities is much wider, he’s still years from making the big leagues, and he could end up being nothing of big league value or he could turn into a +5 WAR frontline starter. Lopez may have more upside, but FV incorporates risk as well.
This chart is a little less useful for the list, but people always want to know how many home runs a power grade converts to, so here’s the scale scouts use to determine various individual tool grades, taken from the same article.
Tool Is Called Fastball Velo Batting Avg Homers RHH to 1B LHH to 1B 60 Yd Run
80 80 97 .320 40+ 4.00 3.90 6.3
75 96 .310 35-40 4.05 3.95 6.4
70 Plus Plus 95 .300 30-35 4.10 4.00 6.5
65 94 .290 27-30 4.15 4.05 6.6
60 Plus 93 .280 23-27 4.20 4.10 6.7
55 Above Avg 92 .270 19-22 4.25 4.15 6.8
50 Avg 90-91 .260 15-18 4.30 4.20 6.9-7.0
45 Below Avg 89 .250 12-15 4.35 4.25 7.1
40 88 .240 8-12 4.40 4.30 7.2
35 87 .230 5-8 4.45 4.35 7.3
30 86 .220 3-5 4.50 4.40 7.4
The last three are for speed, running from home to first, or a showcase-style timed-run in the outfield. Notice that the hitting tool grade only refers to batting average, so some prospects with strong plate discipline — Jesse Winker and Michael Conforto, for example — are rated higher than you’d expect given their pure hit tool grade. The hit tool is just meant to grade the ability to make contact and the raw tools (bat speed, eye-hand coordination, etc). I go into much more detail about how scouts do this and what it means in the six-part hit tool series linked to at the top of the article.
The Limitations of Prospect Lists
People like reading these lists and this is roughly the time of year these lists are normally made; that’s why this thing exists. Much like mock drafts, there are limitations to what I can tell you via a list and there’s also a false sense of precision this creates, but it’s a popular and easy format to dispense information. Try not to get too bent out of shape if you think some guy that’s 23rd should be 45th; that is so much closer to being the exact same thing than many people realize.
You might notice that there are runs where there’s five or more pitchers or hitters in a row. I could split them all up and never have more than one or two of the same type of player in a row, but players do tend to get grouped together, and when they’re almost exactly the same, it makes sense to rank them next to each other. You might point to the glut of similar shortstops in the 60-90 range and I’ll admit you could rank those guys in whatever order you want. There is a run of pitchers with injury or command questions in the 54-76 range and potential mid-rotation starters in the 17-37 range that I had a lot of trouble separating, shuffling the order a number of times. If there is some “correct” way to rank these players, it would likely include more runs from a certain position like this than you’d expect.
Another limit of this list is exactly what it’s measuring. Players with 150 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched or more are not eligible, and players are ranked with the team that currently has them, with no notation to which team originally signed/drafted them. So, a team like the Rays that doesn’t trade away prospects and only trades for them will naturally be rewarded by this process, while the Tigers — who have been much more successful than Tampa at drafting and signing players — often trade their prospects once they have enough trade value to acquire a good big leaguer, so Detroit is inherently penalized by this process.
Young big league teams with lots of controllable talent will usually be darlings of these lists for years, then when the players get to the big leagues, it leaves a hole; we aren’t measuring young talent with this list, just rookie-eligible young talent. I’ll seek to remedy this in a number of ways over the next few weeks by adjusting this list for original signing organization and doing this same process for every big league player so we can have a more complete view of the talent at all levels of an organization.
How I Made the List
A couple weeks ago I went into detail about the process for making the list. The short version is the order prospects are put on the team lists might be different in this list because I talked to a wider group of people and collected more varied opinions. In general, if you see a tool-grade change in one place that disagrees with another place on the site, that means I likely got newer and better information and adjusted my rankings accordingly. As of today, this reflects everything I know in the best way I know how to consider it.
The general approach to the list is to try to reflect industry-wide trade value, via valuing upside, likelihood to reach it and distance to the big leagues, along with a few more, less-important factors. I’ve scouted for teams in the past and have seen the vast majority of these players before, often over multiple years, so my opinion is also folded in.
You can look at making this list like college admissions: there’s a cold, objective approach where you just line up qualifications and score everything. There’s a more subjective “Which player do you want?, Which player do you believe in?” that I try to balance. A couple players are ranked using the objective approach, where they would be if they had a huge 2015 season. Very few people would rank them that high right now, but I have conviction they’ll have a huge season, so I basically took a leap of faith six months in advance.
The Best Prospects Not on the List
Since I know you guys will ask and I’m prepared to answer, I’ll run down the top Cuban and domestic amateurs players and where they’d land in the top 200. Second baseman Hector Olivera turns 30 in a few months, so he isn’t eligible for the list since he’s so different than the guys here. This is also why I didn’t include Red Sox center fielder Rusney Castillo, who was on the Red Sox List, since I’d then also have to include Diamondbacks left fielder Yasmany Tomas and Pirates shortstop Jung-Ho Kang, and they don’t really fit on this list.
I won’t rank the best young Japanese professional talents or players still in Cuba since there’s still a lot of time or effort before they become threats to land on this list. Still, the best of that group is 20-year-old 6-foot-4 righty Shohei Otani with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan’s NPB. I recently talked to a scout who said Otani is a more physical Yu Darvish who throws even harder. Otani has hit 101 mph, has the stuff and command to be a frontline starter and would be comfortably in this top 10. Still, he won’t be available to major league teams for years due to the posting process, and his timeline is similar to Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Nineteen-year-old Cuban free agent 2B/3B/CF Yoan Moncada would be eighth, just behind Lucas Giolito and 18-year-old Florida high school shortstop Brendan Rodgers is the current favorite to go No. 1 overall in the draft. He’d fit in the 32nd range. Eighteen-year-old LHP Brady Aiken went No. 1 overall last year to the Houston Astros but didn’t sign and will be in this year’s draft, though he hasn’t picked a school yet (rumors are he’ll end up at IMG Post-Grad with Jacob Nix). Aiken would fit 46th overall. 21-year-old Duke University RHP Michael Matuella is a wild card who has No. 1 ability but has a very short track record of elite stuff and performance. He would be at No. 51, while a comparable talent, 18 year-old Cuban defector RHP Yadier Alvarez, would fit at No. 58.
Twenty-one-year-old Cuban free agent second baseman Andy Ibanez would be in the 143 to 200 group as a 45+ FV. I could place a couple more draft prospects but they’d likely fit in that last group with Ibanez now, with a chance a few emerge this spring, along with the obvious possibility that one of the top three prospects regress.
A Couple Last Notes
I link to many of the videos below, but the FanGraphs YouTube page has over 600 videos of players from every level of baseball, taken from the traditional scouting angles. I also do a podcast each week; here’s last week’s episode where I talked mostly about my recent trip to the Dominican Republic.
Once I finish all 30 teams’ lists, we’ll have a handy sortable database with all the rankings and tool grades you find on the site. Until then, I’ve also added the tool grades you see below on each player’s page. That’s a good landing spot for information on each player, with links to recent articles with more information than you’ll find here — like ETA and risk. Also, once I post all 30 lists, we’ll do final organizational rankings.
Alright, that seems like a long enough introduction. As one final tease before the list goes up tomorrow, new FanGraphs writer Sean Dolinar created some visual breakdowns of the of the demographics of the list, which we’ve included below. Check back tomorrow morning for all 200 names, and I’ll be hosting a Tuesday edition of my Prospect chat to answer questions about the list. Hopefully this tides you over until then.
The FanGraphs Top 200 Prospect List.
Yesterday, we gave you a little bit of a tease, giving you a glimpse into the making of FanGraphs Top 200 Prospect List. This morning, however, we present the list in its entirety, including scouting grades and reports for every prospect rated as a 50 Future Value player currently in the minor leagues. As discussed in the linked introduction, some notable international players were not included on the list, but their respective statuses were discussed in yesterday’s post. If you haven’t read any of the prior prospect pieces here on the site, I’d highly encourage you to read the introduction, which explains all of the terms and grades used below.
Additionally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point you towards our YouTube channel, which currently holds over 600 prospect videos, including all of the names near the top of this list. Players’ individual videos are linked in the profiles below as well.
And lastly, before we get to the list, one final reminder that a player’s placement in a specific order is less important than his placement within a Future Value tier. Numerical rankings can give a false impression of separation between players who are actually quite similar, and you shouldn’t get too worked up over the precise placement of players within each tier. The ranking provides some additional information, but players in each grouping should be seen as more or less equivalent prospects.
If you have any questions about the list, I’ll be chatting today at noon here on the site (EDIT: here’s the chat transcript), and you can find me on Twitter at @kileymcd.
Alright, that’s enough stalling. Let’s get to this.
70 FV Prospects (Tier of 2)
1. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 75/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 50/45, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 70
Scouting Report: Bryant is the top prospect in the game for me and for a majority of sources I talked to, but it isn’t by a landslide. Bryant still has some questions, and the guy right behind him could be terrifyingly good. Bryant has either 75 or 80 raw power for scouts, but the two questions about him are 1) how much contact he’ll make/how much of his power will he get to in games, and 2) if he will play third base or right field. The thing that created both of these question is the length of his 6-foot-5, 215 lb. frame, which also creates his power, so you have to take the good with the bad — and there’s plenty of good.
2. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 30/60, Raw Power: 50/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 80/80, Field: 65/70, Throw: 65/65, FV: 70
Scouting Report: Buxton was the consensus top prospect in the game last year, but had a mix of freak and regular injuries that limited him to under 200 plate appearances, including the Arizona Fall League. You can mostly throw out his mediocre-for-Buxton numbers from this year, because the tools are still there, which puts in context how good he was in 2013. He hit above league average at High-A at age 20 and it was seen as a disappointment; if he can stay healthy and perform like healthy he did, he could be a dynamic All-Star talent as soon as 2015’s stretch run, but more likely in 2016.
65 FV Prospects (Tier of 6)
3. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Russell was known to scouts early in his high school career, then he added a lot of weight in the summer before his draft year, causing most to project him as a third baseman. Russell didn’t like hearing this, so he dropped all the weight by his draft spring, losing some 65 or 70 raw power, but becoming a plus runner with a good chance to stick at shortstop. He went 11th overall to Oakland and surprised from day one with how advanced he was offensively, while continuing to improve defensively. He was dealt to the Cubs last year in the Jeff Samardzija deal and joins a glut of talented young hitters for the Cubs. The biggest remaining question for Russell is if he can still stick at shortstop due to a hitch in his release that limits how quickly he can unload the ball deep in the hole.
4. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Full Report & Video
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 60/65, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: The Mexican-born Urias signed when he turned 16 in August 2012, as part of a package deal from his Mexican team, where he was the headline player, signing for $1.0 million (the Dodgers paid another $800,000 for the other players in the package). The Dodgers brass signed Urias after a famous trip to Mexico. They went to see his teammate C Julian Leon (a solid prospect in his own right), but the 15-year-old Urias sat 90-92 mph with a loose delivery, crisp curveball and good feel to pitch. Later on that same trip, the Dodgers also signed Yasiel Puig, making it one of the most notable scouting trips of all time. The reason Urias was still available what that he had a serious condition in his left eye (and still does–check out his official photo) after a tumor was removed, and some teams were worried about future blindness, though it doesn’t appear to be a problem now. Urias now sits in the low to mid-90’s and touches 97 mph with three plus pitches and advanced command, and he’s still just 18. He’ll start 2015 in Double-A and when he’s called up is simply a function of when the Dodgers want to start his arbitration clock, because we haven’t seen him fail yet, so we don’t even fully know his ceiling.
5. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 60/65, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 65/65, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Correa was seen as a consensus top-three pick in the 2012 draft, but only a portion of the scouting community had him as the top prospect in the draft. The Astros saw him as the best talent and also saw an opportunity to capitalize on this perception (with Buxton seen as the consensus top prospect) to cut a below-slot deal with Correa, allowing them to sign two high schoolers — 3B Rio Ruiz (#43 on this list, since traded to Atlanta in the Evan Gattis deal) and RHP Lance McCullers (#126) — to over-slot deals later in the draft. Correa has really performed since signing and hasn’t added the weight many expected to come and force a move to third base. His 2014 season ended early with a broken fibula, but he’s been back to 100 percent for over a month and is expected to be ready to head to Double-A to start the year.
6. Corey Seager, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Video
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 45/40, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Seager is the younger brother of Mariners 3B Kyle Seager and, in the last few years, both have emerged as a couple of the best infielders in the world. Corey was identified as such earlier, as he went in the middle of the first round in 2012 out of a Charlotte-area high school, but even the Dodgers were surprised by how much and how quickly Seager excelled offensively. He hasn’t failed in any meaningful way yet, including an impressive late-season run in 2014 at Double-A at age 20. If you have to nitpick, the strikeouts are a little higher than some would like, but Seager is 6-foot-4 and that’s to be expected if a bigger guy is going to hit for some power. The Dodgers think Seager is fringy to average defensively at shortstop and will try to keep him there as long as possible, but he should slide over to third base at some point in the next year or two.
7. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
More: Full Report & Video
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 60/70, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Giolito was nationally known by scouts all the way back to when he hit 95 mph at age 15 and he dominated over the summer and winter leading up to his draft year; he was in the running to go 1-1 as one of the top prep pitchers of all-time. His draft year, however, was cut short by a sprained UCL in his elbow that led to Tommy John surgery. The stuff was all the way back this year as he dominated Low-A in his age-19 season in his first full year coming off of surgery. The Nationals were understandably conservative with pitch and innings counts in 2014, wanting to keep Giolito at the same level in a low stress environment so he wouldn’t go too deep in innings/games or be tempted to reach back for the 100 mph heater he’s thrown many times before. Giolito will start in High-A this year and the reigns will be loosened, with an expectation that he’ll get promoted to Double-A at some point in 2015, with the majors only a phone call away.
8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
More: Full Report & Video
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 60/70, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Rodon was a notable prospect out of high school, but had a 3rd-4th round grade from most teams, as the fastball sat around 90, there was no projection and some teams had him off the board due to a back issue. His velocity spiked soon after he got to campus at NC State and he was sitting 92-95 mph and flashing a plus-plus slider en route to a dominating freshman season that began hype that Rodon would go #1 overall in 2014. He hit some bumps along the way and only showed flashes of his ultra premium stuff in his draft year, but it all came back after signing, due in part to his overuse in college and his reliance on his knockout slider. He’ll likely start in Triple-A, and should be up at some point this year. He has frontline starter potential, but he’s also shown flashes of a more ordinary pitcher in recent years.
60 FV Prospects (Tier of 20)
9. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 30/50, Run: 45/45+, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Swihart was seen as an amateur as an offense-first catcher that probably would have to move to a corner position once he got to the upper levels of the minors when Boston took him 26th overall out of a New Mexico high school. He’s made a lot a strides defensively since then, now projecting as s solid average defender with a plus arm and above average athleticism. Swihart’s bat is still advanced and he’s developed more game power in the past few years, with scouts expecting about 15-18 homers at maturity, with an MLB look likely coming at some point in 2015.
10. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 60
Scouting Report: J.P. Crawford is a cousin of Carl Crawford, but you don’t need to know his bloodlines to to know he’s a premium athlete. He is a plus runner with smooth hands, good range and an above average arm, giving him a very good chance to stick at shortstop long-term. Scouts are pleasantly surprised by how well Crawford has hit since turning pro and he’s now on the fast track. He turns 20 soon and will get a taste of Double-A next year, possibly to start the year, with a 2016 big league cup of coffee in range if he keeps progressing.
11. Joc Pederson, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 45/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Pederson signed for $600,000 in the 11th round of the 2010 draft from a Northern California high school; he wasn’t a consensus prospect and wasn’t seen as having much upside, but flashed average tools and good feel for the game. Something clicked in 2012 and the Dodgers sent him straight to High-A as a 20-year-old, where he became a top 100 type prospect. He raked again in Double-A in 2013, then again in 2014 in Triple-A, with only the Dodgers outfield surplus keeping him on the farm so long. Pederson has average to above average tools across the board, with only his raw power showing plus, though that’s with effort in batting practice. He can play a solid center field for now, but likely settles as a right fielder when he matures. His offensive projection will come down to what kind of hitter he wants to be–the 55 future hit/power tools is a little conservative and converts to .270s and 20 homers–but his controlled aggressive approach should lead to high OBPs either way.
12. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
More: Video
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Glasnow was drafted in the 5th round out of high school in 2011 as a low-profile pure projection bet with fringy to average stuff and a limited track record. He blew up in 2013, dominating Low-A with a fastball that hit 97 mph. He continued his progress at High-A in 2014, sitting 93-96 mph and hitting 98 mph, with a plus curveball and improving changeup. Glasnow’s long limbs create some command challenges, but his walks were more a function of deep counts due to swing-and-miss stuff than trouble throwing strikes. He’ll head to Double-A for 2015 and likely won’t get a big league look until 2016, but there’s #2 starter upside, with less risk each the day.
13. Jorge Soler, RF, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 50/60, Game Power: 55/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Run: 50/45, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Soler is a fun player to watch. He’s an explosive quick-twitch power hitter with easy plus bat speed and raw power, along with just enough huge cuts and erratic stuff to his game that you never know what you might see. The erratic aspects of his game slowly melted away this year as he matured mentally and had his first full year of reps in the system with a clean bill of health. He was great in a big league audition in 2014 and is the classic power right field profile, with some comparing Soler at the plate to Yasiel Puig.
14. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
More: Video
Hit: 40/60, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 30/40, Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Lindor had lots of late helium before the 2011 draft, with some talk he could go in the top three, but the Indians happily scooped him up with the 8th pick. He’s met or exceeded expectation since then, with plenty of contact, speed and defense to comfortably project as an everyday player with a likely 2015 big league look. The only real questions are how much power there will be and if the bat is truly impact level, but Elvis Andrus has shown that there’s still a way to get get plenty rich even without an impact-level bat.
15. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/50, Raw Power: 80/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 45/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Sano missed all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery but was fully ready to play this winter. He had a very high profile July 2nd signing process, complete with a controversial documentary, accusations of falsifying his age, bone scans and a surprise late entrant scooping up the player. Sano was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent with 80 raw power and the ability to stay in the infield to go with an advanced feel for hitting. That’s all still true, but Sano has added a lot of strength — he’s at least 6-foot-4, 240 lbs. now and likely will get even bigger. As such, most scouts now assume he’ll end up at first base in a few years. He’ll head to Double-A or Triple-A to start 2015 and should get a big league look late in the season if he proves everything is fully back.
16. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 60/70, Raw Power: 80/80, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 70/70, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Gallo became famous to mainstream baseball fans for his power display during the 2014 Futures Game, where he showed off legit top-of-the-scale 80 raw power. Scouts I talked to say what they see day-to-day from Gallo in batting practive is more of a 70, which is more in line with what they think he could produce in the big leagues (70 game power translates to 30-35 homers annually) since there are still some questions about his contact ability. That said, Gallo raked this year at age 20 in Double-A and has never had trouble putting up gaudy numbers, so it’s hard to say he won’t hit enough to be a solid everyday player of some kind. He’s fringy at third base but also has enormous arm strength and scouts think he’ll figure out a way to stick over there, though Adrian Beltre may force him to right field as long as he’s in Arlington.
17. Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+,Command: 45/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Norris was a well-known prospect coming out of a Tennessee high school, both for his above-average stuff dating back to his sophomore year, as well as his troublesome delivery. He slipped to the second round in 2011, but the Jays scooped him up at the 74th overall pick with a $2 million bonus. The Jays development staff a couple years to clean everything up and unlock Norris’ athleticism, but he shot from High-A to the big leagues in 2014 alongside CF Dalton Pompey (#80 on this list). Norris runs his fastball up to 96 mph with above average to plus off-speed pitches and good feel to pitch; there’s #2/3 starter upside and he likely won’t spend much more time in the minors.
18. Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Appel was a polarizing figure in the 2012 draft, when he went 8th overall and didn’t sign with the Pirates, turning down a $3.8 million offer. Scouts liked the size and stuff but thought Appel wasn’t quite athletic enough to make his delivery work and lacked the aggressiveness and killer instinct to be a frontline arm. Appel answered these questions in 2013, with an improved approach and the Astros took the Houston native #1 overall. He had some trouble in 2014 with his velocity disappearing then coming back, and he still isn’t all the way back to his peak form as a senior at Stanford. The pitch grades above are a notch higher than what he consistently showed last year, but there’s no physical reason to think he can’t regain that form and become a #2 starter.
19. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Syndergaard was just starting to grow into his 6-foot-6, 240 lb. frame when the Blue Jays took him in the 2010 sandwich round as a late pop-up arm off many teams’ radars, due to a velocity spike before the draft. He has shot through the minors, reaching Triple-A by 21 while growing a few inches, putting on lots of strength, developing his command and having his stuff explode. He was dealt in a package with Travis d’Arnaud from Toronto in the R.A. Dickey trade in December of 2012. He now sits 93-97 with heavy life and hits 98 mph with a curveball that is mostly above average, but still varies outing to outing. Syndergaard also has been more open to using his changeup than Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler at the same stage, with the pitch flashing above average pretty consistently already. Syndergaard’s weakness is a lack of a consistent plus secondary pitch, but he does everything well and will get a big league look in 2015 with a good chance to reach his mid-rotation potential.
20. Alex Jackson, RF, Seattle Mariners
More: Video
Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 45/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Jackson was known as a sophomore in high school as he showed and advanced feel to hit, big raw power and a huge arm behind the plate. He held that lofty perch until his draft year, as a legitimate contender to go #1 overall, but ultimately slipped to the Mariners at 6th overall. Jackson has easy plus raw power and arm strength, but the separator here is his advanced feel to hit to all fields and get to his power in games. Like Wil Myers and Bryce Harper before him and Kyle Schwarber (#21 on this list) from his draft class, Jackson’s bat is too advanced to wait on his glove to develop behind the plate, so the Mariners will just stick him in right field and let him hit his way to the big leagues.
21. Kyle Schwarber, LF, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 70/70, Game Power: 40/60, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 50/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: When I first saw Schwarber last summer on a loaded college Team USA, I thought the middle linebacker-looking dude wasn’t a good bet to stick at catcher, but he was surprisingly nimble for his size with enough ability to at least consider it. I wrote that he was good enough back there to allow him to play there in the minors and develop him as a potential backup that plays once or twice a week but is a primary at left field or first base. The Cubs took him #4 overall out of Indiana and agree with my defensive suggestion; they’ll develop him as a catcher this year, but most assume his bat will be ready before his glove, meaning he’ll be a part-time catcher at best. There’s legit 30 homer power and surprising feel to hit with a realistic chance for a big league look in late 2016.
22. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
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Fastball: 55/65, Curveball: 55/60, Cutter: 60/70, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Bundy was a known prospect as a sophomore in high school, if not earlier, and the Orioles knew about him early; they signed his older brother Bobby in 2008 before drafting Dylan in 2011. It’s expected his borderline insane usage in high school is what led to his June 2013 Tommy John surgery after soreness in March of that year. The linked video is pre-surgery when Bundy-mania was at it’s height: he sat 95-99 mph with an 80 cutter, plus curveball and solid average changeup. In 41.1 innings last year at the A-Ball levels, Bundy was mostly 90-93, hitting 94 mph with the command and curveball not close to what they once were. Later in the summer, he hit 96 mph and the curve and command were getting there, but he was shut down with an oblique problem, unrelated to his arm. He is expected to have stuff close to his peak this year, but you can see from the above grades I’ve hedged a bit until we actually see it. This year is his last option, so he has to stick on the big league roster in 2016 or be exposed to waivers, which he would not clear.
23. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Boston Red Sox
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Rodriguez was acquired from the Orioles at the trade deadline for lefty reliever Andrew Miller, with lots of rumors suggested they chose Rodriguez over a multi-player offer from Detroit headlined by #29 on this list, RHP Jake Thompson. Rodriguez went from a solid lefty prospect that projected as a #4 type starter to a potential frontline guy a couple weeks before the trade when his velocity ticked up to sitting 93-96 mph, which also sharpened his slider. The question is if this new stuff is here to stay, but even if it isn’t, Rodriguez could be a league average or better starter by 2016.
24. Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
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Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Berrios may not be big at 6-foot-0/190 pounds, but scouts rave about his athleticism, makeup and work ethic. His velocity has slowly improved since high school in Puerto Rico and now sits at 93-96, hitting 98 mph. There isn’t a ton of plane or life to the pitch, but his clean arm action and deceptively easy delivery helps the heater sneak up on hitters. Berrios calls his breaking pitches a slow and fast curveball, but the fast one plays like a slider and both are above average; scouts will call one or the other plus depending on the day, but the slower curve gets the better grade more often. His changeup is above average and may be plus one day, helping to keep hitters off his fastball. One scout compared him to Javier Vazquez and he should get a big league look at some point in 2015.
25. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
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Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Stephenson surprisingly slipped to the end of the 1st round out of high school and has done what most scouts thought he would, turning a crazy loose arm into premium stuff in short order. This year was a struggle for Stephenson as he hadn’t really failed before, but at age-21 as more of a thrower than pitcher in Double-A, even plus stuff and a heater that hits 100 mph wouldn’t allow him to carve hitters up as he was accustomed. Stephenson will need to make that adjustment next season, but there are more than enough ingredients here for a mid-rotation starter, with a decent chance for even more. One scout compared Stephenson’s developmental path and possible eventual outcome to Homer Bailey. The command isn’t really the issue, so much as it is usage of his pitches, getting into good counts and challenging hitters in the right way, not always with a flat upper-90?s fastball up in the zone.
26. Luis Severino, RHP, New York Yankees
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Fastball: 65/70, Slider: 40/50+, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Severino wasn’t a high profile signing, but stood out to me in instructs the fall after his 2012 stint in the Dominican Summer League. He sat 92-94 mph in both outings I saw and threw a solid average slider, but didn’t work in a changeup and his delivery/command needed work. Severino was mostly 91-95 mph in 2013 and early in 2014, then got stronger as the year went on, flashing 94-97 mph heat at times later in the year and sustaining it for innings. Severino took quickly to using a changeup regularly after arriving in America, developing it as a plus pitch in about a year of using it, though it can sometimes play to 55 on certain days, as he’s still developing consistent control of his off-speed offerings. His slider is still a third pitch, but it flashes 55 at times. He’s quickly improved and developed starter traits, but on certain days the stuff, command and delivery may all look more like a reliever.
27. Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Texas Rangers
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Gonzalez went from a 3rd-4th round prospect entering his draft year at Oral Roberts to a legit 1st rounder by mid-season, with some buzz he could sneak into the top 10 on a discounted deal; he went 23rd. His heavy sinker has led to solid performances in the minors thus far, and his stuff has ticked up a notch this season. Gonzalez now sits 92-95, hitting 97 mph often and can spot and manipulate the pitch to sink, run or cut it at 94 mph deep into starts. His plus mid-80’s slider is still the primary weapon and his changeup and fourth option curveball both flash average to slightly above at times. Gonzalez’s command isn’t bad and should be average as well, giving Gonzalez #3 starter upside, but scouts complain that with his firm changeup, almost every pitch he throws is over 85 mph and often in the strike zone.
28. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Gray created tons of buzz midway through the 2013 spring with Oklahoma, coming from out of nowhere to hit 100 mph often, with a plus slider and usable changeup. He was in the mix for the #1 overall pick but ended up going 3rd overall to Colorado. Since signing, Gray’s velocity has been down some, mostly sitting 91-94 and hitting 95 mph, but Rockies sources say this is intentional and he’s working on some things (they already smoothed out his delivery), which scouts assumed after Gray hit 98 mph in a short Texas League All-Star Game appearance. I think he’ll settle at 92-94 with more movement and command, with the slider still plus and the changeup having it’s moments. Scouts are a little concerned that Gray is a below average athlete and the command still isn’t quite there yet, but it’s hard to walk away from this stuff.
55 FV Prospects (Tier of 51)
29. Jake Thompson, RHP, Texas Rangers
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Fastball: 60/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Thompson slipped to the 2nd round out of high school because his stuff was mostly average, but would tick up at times. That was the book on him earlier this year at High-A Lakeland for Detroit, when he’d start games at 90-92, hitting 93-95 at times and then dip to 88-91 later in the game with a solid average three-pitch mix. In the Florida State League All-Star Game, Thompson sat 93-96 in a one-inning appearance and his slider was at least a 60, though it was a higher effort delivery he didn’t use when starting. Thompson was dealt to the Rangers mid-season in the Joakim Soria trade and scouts that saw him in the Texas League reported he was 92-96 mph with a 60 slider that is sometimes a 70 in short stints. There’s an average change and impact stuff as a starter, but there’s also some effort to the delivery, so the fit may be in the bullpen; he’ll head to Double-A and could be a bullpen option if needed late in the year.
30. Austin Meadows, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 60/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 45/45, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Meadows was compared to his friend and fellow 2013 draft Atlanta-area prep hitter Clint Frazier often; scouts were still split over which one they preferred at draft time. After a full season, but Meadows has the clear edge, but it’s still very early. Meadows missed a lot of the season with a hamstring injury, but showed the sweet lefty swing and above average tools that got him drafted 9th overall. Meadows is a big, football-strong type athlete at 6-foot-3/200 and appears to have already lost a step from high school, usually running in the 55 range, with most assuming he’ll settle closer to an average runner. Since his arm is below average, this would shift him to left field and put more pressure on his bat, which is advanced, but he’s still learning to integrate his raw power into his game swing. Jay Bruce is a comparison that’s come up often for Meadows and power-hitting corner outfield may be where this ends up in a few years.
31. David Dahl, CF, Colorado Rockies
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Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Dahl’s stock dipped in 2012 and 2013 after going 10th overall out of an Alabama high school due to some maturity issues that caused the Rockies to issue a suspension and limit his exposure to full-season ball until this season. This year, Dahl cruised through Low-A as expected and he may now be on the fast track. Scouts never really doubted Dahl’s ability to hit and one said he almost put a 70 on his bat after seeing him this year; that same scout put a 50 on the future game power despite a line drive approach in games. It may take a few years but advanced, talented hitters with a natural opposite field stroke will often will outhit their raw power at maturity (even with a line drive approach) due to how much hard contact they make. The offensive upside combined with plus speed and a center field profile give Dahl the upside to be a star, but some scouts would like to see more than one year in full-season leagues before they go all-in.
32. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/65, Cutter: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Bradley went from premium quarterback/pitching prospect in high school at age 17 to legitimately in play for the #1 overall pick at age 18 to top prospect immediately after signing, to possibly being in the big league rotation at age 21. In retrospect, some scouts think he was pressing in 2014 Spring Training, trying to do too much to impress the big league staff to break camp with the big league club. Bradley went back to Triple-A and by late April, he was on the shelf with an elbow strain. He returned from the DL in Double-A, starting 12 games and heading to the Arizona Fall League, but not quite looking like the same potential frontline starter from previous years. Bradley added a cutter in the AFL that flashed plus, though his changeup and curveball were a notch lower than the grades above and there’s still concerns that he doesn’t have enough feel to stick as a starter, though he should get a big league look in 2015.
33. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox
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Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Owens was a projection lefty starter out of high school with advanced feel to pitch and a good changeup; he’s continued to improve and still has plenty of projection to go. Owens sits 90-92 with good deception, extension, command and movement, hitting as high as 95 mph at times. His curveball is solid-average and his plus changeup also draws grades as high as 70 from some scouts. Owens is still a long, lanky type arm that sometimes has trouble corralling his limbs to repeat his delivery and should also throw a tick or two harder down the line. The stuff doesn’t blow you away, but Owens know how to use it and he should get a big league look in 2015.
34. Ozhaino Albies, SS, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 30/40, Game Power: 20/35, Run: 65/65, Field: 50/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Albies home country Curacao has produced a great recent group of quick-twitch infielders with Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Schoop and Jurickson Profar, while nearby Aruba has recently produced Xander Bogaerts. Albies is next in line, with some scouts comparing him to a smaller Francisco Lindor or Rafael Furcal with less arm strength. He’s 5-foot-9/150, just turned 18 and has only played one year of short-season ball, but scouts are already tossing 60’s on his hit tool, along with 60 or more on his speed, glove and arm. Feel free to scroll around this list and try to find another example of these kinds of tools; that and universally positive reports are why I’m so bullish on this kid. Power isn’t a big part of game and likely will never be, but he does everything else so well at such a young age, that no one seems to care. He has excellent feel for the strike zone and the bat head, plenty of bat speed, knowledge of when to use his gap power and when to keep the ball on the ground; his full-season debut in 2015 is arguably the most anticipated in baseball.
35. Manuel Margot, CF, Boston Red Sox
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 65/65, Field: 60/65, Throw: 50/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Margot was another recent, premium July 2nd signee for the Red Sox that has gone swimmingly so far, along with Devers below. Margot has game-changing easy plus speed and defense to go with surprising raw power for his size and an advanced bat. Margot has above average bat speed and bat control to go with a simple, line-drive, gap-to-gap approach that takes advantage of his speed with lots of doubles and triples. Margot wore down a bit down the stretch this year and his raw power and arm strength were a tick lower for some scouts, but his performance speaks for itself and he may get a taste of Double-A in 2015 at age 20.
36. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
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Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Harvey is the son of former big league reliever Bryan Harvey and wasn’t well known until his draft spring as he opted to play Legion ball instead of hitting the showcase circuit. He went from sitting around 90 with a skinny, lanky frame to hitting the mid-to-upper-90?s in his draft spring, attracting first round attention. Harvey’s 90-93 mph fastball that had hit 96 mph in high school was suddenly sitting 93-97 mph in the summer after he signed, when most prep pitchers are battling sore arms. Expectation adjusted upward and Harvey delivered this year in his full-season debut, with ground balls and strikeouts in bunches. Some elbow soreness sent him to the DL in July and Baltimore shut him down as he’d already reached his innings limit for the season. Scouts are a little wary of a young pitcher with limited innings getting shut down with elbow soreness, so they’d like to see him throw a couple solid starts before totally buying back in, but there’s frontline potential here.
37. Sean Manaea, LHP, Kansas City Royals
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Manaea was a largely unknown power lefty with little else to offer as a sophomore at Indiana State, then he blew up that summer on the Cape, sitting 91-95 and hitting 97 mph with life and deception. He was a projected top 5 pick before a terrible spring, caused by bad weather, inconsistent mechanics and bothersome arm soreness to go with a more serious hip injury. The Royals took the late-rising Hunter Dozier with their top pick, signing him to an underslot deal to save money so they could take Manaea, hoping he’d last to their pick at 34 due to his injuries and price tag, which he did. Kansas City signed Manaea for $3.55 million (over a million more than Dozier) and he sat out the rest of the 2013 season, making his pro debut in 2014 at High at age 22. Manaea was back to his old self in carving up the league and is flashing the #2/3 starter upside of his breakout Cape campaign.
38. Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
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Hit: 40/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 50/60, Run: 30/30, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Franco’s breakout was in 2013, between High-A and Double-A, when he went from a high contact hitter with some raw power to a monster hitting over .300 with 30 homers between two levels. Franco is limited physically by his slow feet and will never be more than fringy at third base, but has the plus arm and good hands to figure out a way to make it work over there. The ultimate fit is likely first base, but that’s years away and he’ll get an extended big league look in 2015, with his aggressive offensive approach the big remaining question to answer.
39. Jesse Winker, LF, Cincinnati Reds
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Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 45/40, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Winker was a very well-known prospect out of high school, playing on arguably the best travel team in the country and playing on a loaded Orlando-area high school team that included first rounders Walker Weickel and Nick Gordon. Winker has progressed well in pro ball, with some scouts suggesting he may have gotten a tick faster since signing, but the carrying tool here is the bat and it has really shined so far. While the raw power isn’t huge, he should be able to produce 20 bombs at maturity and Winker’s feel to hit is very advanced as his feel for the strike zone. Some scout suggest first base will be his eventual home, but also mention names like Paul O’Neill, John Olerud and Tino Martinez as potential comps.
40. Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets
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Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 30/45, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 50/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Plawecki doesn’t have huge tools and didn’t come from a baseball hotbed, playing high school in Indiana and college at Purdue, but he has lots of feel for the game to make the most of what he does have. This feel was evident as early as college, which got Plawecki taken 35th overall by the Mets, but his defense and contact abilities have held up more in pro ball than rival scouts expected. Plawecki is an offensive catcher, with hit over power due to his contact leaning with a short load, direct path and simple approach. Scouts hang 55 or 60 grades on his bat and he shot through the system in part because he doesn’t strike out and does a good job making adjustments level-to-level. He doesn’t have a big arm, but it’s enough to catch with a good shot for a big league look in 2015, alongside Travis d’Arnaud.
41. Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/45+, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: To pitch at the Padres pre-draft workout in San Diego in 2011, Wisler flew to the west coast from Ohio and pitched the day after he threw in a high school playoff game, hitting 91 mph at PETCO Park. He’s shown the intangibles from day one, but came to camp in 2013 looking like a completely different pitcher. Wisler now works 91-94, touching 95 mph with sink and commands the pitch to both sides of the plate. His two-plane slider is plus, his changeup is above average at times and he also works in a fringy curveball. Scouts rave about his makeup and strike throwing abilities, though his command isn’t quite big league ready, as he ran into trouble in the hitter-friendly PCL leaving the ball up the zone. Some scouts think his build is too slight and that he won’t be able to hold up for 200 innings, with a couple suggesting he may end up as a late-inning reliever. The consensus is that he should be able to handle 180 innings as a third or fourth starter and he’ll get a big league look in 2015, though the Padres new starting pitching depth may delay that until late in the season.
42. Eddie Butler, RHP, Colorado Rockies
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Butler’s stuff took a step forward since being drafted in the sandwich round in 2012 out of Radford, with his velocity settling a tick or two higher (93-95, touching 97 mph consistently) and his off-speed stuff jumping a notch as well. The big question scouts have about Butler is his durability. He’s had a lot of minor dings and there’s doubt he can hold up for 200 innings, though everything else is there for him to be a starter. If he has to move to the bullpen he could be a closer, with a fastball that’s been up to 99 mph and a knockout changeup, but Colorado will give him every chance to prove he can stay in the rotation. The slider has been a 55 in the past but scouts have said it’s only been average this year.
43. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Ruiz signed with the Astros for an over slot $1.85 million with the money they saved going under slot on SS Carlos Correa as the #1 overall pick in 2012. Ruiz slipped to the 4th round after being in the top 50 pick discussion early in the spring, due to a blood clot in his neck that prematurely ended his season. He was also a standout quarterback in high school, which shows with his above average arm strength, but the 6-foot-2/215 lefty hitter isn’t a traditionally great athlete. He was acquired earlier this month by Atlanta in the Evan Gattis deal. Ruiz is a below average runner with fringy range that limits his defensive upside, though it looks right now like he’ll be able to stay at the hot corner, with the above average raw power to profile. The carrying tool is the bat and Ruiz took a step forward in 2014, but some scouts would like to see him do it outside of the Cal League before throwing a 60 on his hit tool. With a solid year for Atlanta in Double-A in 2015, he’ll be on the fast track for a big league look and is already their third baseman of the future.
44. Jose Peraza, 2B, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 30/50, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 20/35, Run: 70/70, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 50/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Peraza is a plus-plus runner with game-changing speed and he knows how to use it on the bases, stealing 60 and 64 bases in his last two seasons. He started as a shortstop, was converted to second base full-time in 2014 and handled it well; his average arm isn’t enough for that throw in the hole from shortstop, but he’s good enough for emergency duty at short. Peraza doesn’t have much power, but it isn’t a big part of his game, likely hitting 5-12 homers depending on how he matures as a hitter. He doesn’t see many pitches and aggressively attack the first hittable pitch he sees, using his speed by keeping the ball on the ground and leading to low walk and strikeout rates, but that could cause problems against top big league arms. He’ll start 2015 in Triple-A after short stops in Double-A and High-A last year, and a good chance he’s entrenched in the big league lineup at some point in 2016.
45. Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox
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Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 65/65, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Anderson was almost completely unknown entering his draft year, as he went undrafted in 2012 at the same junior college where he went in the 1st round in 2013. He came out late in spring 2012 after basketball season ended and was often hidden in left field, so it wasn’t easy for scouts to pick up on the raw tools at a rural junior college game with their pref lists mostly set. Anderson is the loose athlete every scout is looking for, with easy plus speed, a plus arm and, despite some issues he’s working on with fundamentals and footwork, he has the tools to stick at shortstop. He has plus bat speed, above average bat control and surprising pop, flashing average raw power. Anderson’s feel to hit can sometimes get in his way: he isn’t as patient at the plate as he should be, with his ability to square up most pitches he’s facing now holding back his long-term interests. That said, he’s still hasn’t played much high level baseball, he’s already in Double-A at age 21 and the talent is ridiculous.
46. Nomar Mazara, RF, Texas Rangers
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Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 50/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Mazara’s all-time record-smashing $4.95 million bonus in the last year before international bonus pools opened some eyes, both for the amount and the player. Some pointed to a hitchy swing with timing issues and that was still a concern after last year’s just okay full-season debut at age 18, where Mazara hit .236 with 131 Ks in Low-A. This year, the 19-year-old Mazara made the necessary adjustments, getting his foot down faster which unlocked his bat speed and strength while giving him more time to make a decision on the pitch. He jumped all the way to Double-A, where he’ll start this year and it now on the fast track with a classic power/power right field profile.
47. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 55/65, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Shipley started pitching as a sophomore at Nevada, then went in the middle of the 1st round after his junior year, highlighting how quickly he went from advanced athlete without a position to premium pitching prospect. He’s a ridiculous athlete that scouts tend to believe can do anything in part because of how quickly he’s taken to pitching. Shipley flashed three plus pitches after signing, especially notable because his curveball was rarely used in college and was the reason he lasted all the way to the 15th pick. At his best, Shipley sits 92-95 and touches 98 mph, though his fastball has average at best movement and tends to straighten out late in starts when he’s fatigued. His curveball flashes plus and his changeup is a 65 pitch for some scouts. Shipley’s command still comes and goes, but he’s such a good athlete that scouts assume that will come around to average. He’s still working to get his arm conditioned to last late into games and Shipley’s stuff would, at times, play down a notch or two this season from the peak stuff noted in the future pitch grades above. He’ll spend 2015 in the upper minors and should get a real big league chance in 2016.
48. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Devers has an unusual frame for a top July 2nd prospect, as that market is all about potential and, typically, the most projectable, long, lean frames. Devers stood out from a young age due to his advanced approach, precocious raw power and loose, handsy, all-fields left-handed swing. He’s dropped some bad weight since his amateur days and is still adding some strength and maturing. I often talk about how scouts and analysts agree that opposite field game power at a young age is one of the best indicators of a prospect that has a good chance to become an elite big league bat; Devers has all the makings.
49. Hunter Renfroe, RF, San Diego Padres
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Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 30/60, Run: 55/55, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Renfroe had a Paul Bunyan type backstory but came from relative obscurity with limited playing time as an underclassman at Mississippi State; he was a catcher, with pop times in the 1.7s, or easily plus plus, but little feel to catch and he was also an arm strength reliever that sat 93-96 and hit 98 mph, but with little command. He broke out in the summer after his sophomore year in the largely unscouted Cal Ripken League, then demolished the SEC as a junior en route to going in the middle of the first round. He has easy plus raw power and one Padres official compared his quick-twitch, late-blooming plus bat speed/plus power profile to Nelson Cruz. One big difference is that Renfroe will turn in plus run times to first base on close plays, to go with his plus arm in right field; he occasionally plays center field in the minors and can fill in there if needed in the majors. Some scouts think he’s too aggressive at the plate and see shades of Jeff Francoeur, but I think there’s a solid everyday player here with a chance for a star.
50. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
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Fastball: 55/55, Slider: 55/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Heaney was heralded in his draft year out of Oklahoma State as an advanced pitchability lefty with above average stuff that could turn into a #3/4 starter in short order and that’s almost exactly what’s happened. He already got a big league look in 2014 with Miami before being traded to the Dodgers in the Dee Gordon trade, then flipped to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. His fastball and slider will both flash 60 in his best outings, but Heaney relies more on his feel to pitch than his raw stuff to get strikeouts and grounders. He should be up at some point in 2015 depending on the big league need.
51. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Nola was a smaller righty that threw 85-88 mph from a low slot with some feel in high school, then he exploded onto the scene at LSU, throwing 91-94 mph as a sophomore and hitting 96 mph pretty often in his draft year. Nola creates above average life on his fastball and changeup with the spin he puts on the ball from the low slot. One of the concerns is that his low 3/4 slinging slot allows left-handed hitters seeing the ball too clearly, but Nola’s plus changeup does the heavy lifting here; his above average command and aggressive approach also help keep hitters off balance. He’s never been hurt before despite an unusual delivery and while his stuff was a tick worse after signing, that’s expected with pitchers throwing the longest year of their young careers. Nola will head to Double-A for 2015 and should get a big league look at some point if he has a strong season.
52. Steven Souza, RF, Tampa Bay Rays
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Hit: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: It would seem easy to like a guy with everyday tools that also really performs. Some scouts are all-in on Souza, but most are at least a little dubious that he’ll be able to keep it up in the majors, due to his approach, size and career path. After a slow start to his career as a 3rd round pick in 2007 out of high school (which included a drug suspension in 2010), Souza started crushing everything he faced in 2012 at age-23 in High-A. He followed that with huge years in 2013 at age-24 in Double-A and in 2014 at age-25 in Triple-A. All three of those seasons are two years old for the target age for a prospect to be at each level, so some scouts don’t even totally buy into the performance. Souza is a late bloomer, but he was also the key to the Wil Myers trade for Tampa Bay and he’ll likely be an Opening Day Starter that may post a couple WAR in 2015 and also may outperform Myers right after the deal. These things are all on the table now, but seemed completely absurd to consider a year or two ago, giving you a sense of how much Souza’s stock has risen in that time.
53. Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers
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Hit: 20/45, Game Power: 45/55, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 45/45+, Field: 40/50+, Throw: 70/70, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Alfaro’s easy plus raw power may never fully play at the big league level, but since he can stick behind the plate, it won’t have to. Alfaro has the tools to be an above average defender and his plus-plus arm is a huge weapon, but he still needs some work on the finer points of catching, as his arm strength allows him to get away with stuff in the minors that he won’t be able to do in the majors. Like catchers below like O’Conner, Betancourt and Hedges, Alfaro has some trouble with his approach and reaching his offensive upside, but his raw tools are the best of that bunch and he’ll head to Double-A to start 2015 as Texas’ catcher of the future.
54. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Newcomb was the Hunter Dozier of the 2014 draft, a player that clubs liked higher than the media consensus had them, partly because teams weren’t sure if they were the only team that had him so high, so they kept it secret. Sources have indicated that the Mariners probably would’ve taken Newcomb at the 6th pick if Alex Jackson wasn’t there and there were a couple more spots where he was the backup choice before the Angels stopped the slide at 15th overall. The things scouts like so much about Newcomb are easy to see: he’s huge (6-foot-5/240), athletic, left-handed, has a fresh arm (New England multi-sport kid), flashed three plus pitches (sits 91-94, hits 97 mph) and shows surprising pitchability considering his background. His off-speed stuff plays more to a 55 on a consistent basis, but the raw elements are here for an ace if Newcomb can make all the necessary adjustments and stay healthy.
55. D.J. Peterson, 1B, Seattle Mariners
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Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 40/60, Run: 45/40, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Peterson emerged in his draft year at New Meciso as a guy that scouts saw both advanced hit-ability and raw power, with some comparing him to Billy Butler and Jeff Bagwell for an unexpectedly loose swing in a stout frame. Peterson plays third base now and has the hands and arms to hang around there for awhile, but every scout I’ve talked to sees him moving over to first base at some point in the next few years. He’ll be 23 next year and should perform in Double-A and/or Triple-A, setting the stage for a late-season 2015 big league look with a chance to stick in 2016 as a middle of the order masher.
56. Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Kansas City Royals
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Finnegan was one of the tougher evaluations in this past June’s draft class. The TCU ace appeared to be an anomaly: He had a high effort delivery from a small frame (5-foot-11/185) but he also had advanced command and no injury history. Finnegan was up to 98 mph last summer and regularly up to 96 mph this spring, drawing Scott Kazmir and Billy Wagner comparisons from scouts. Then, he missed multiple starts down the stretch with a stiff shoulder that threw the whole evaluation into question. Finnegan looked fine in abbreviated looks before the draft and went 17th overall to the Royals, whereas he had top 10 rumors around him before the shoulder tightness. It’s still not clear if he’s a mid-rotation starter or closer long-term, but we saw in September that his stuff will play wherever you put it.
57. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington Nationals
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Fastball: 65/75, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Lopez signed with no fanfare, getting a $17,000 bonus at age 18 near the end of the 2012 signing period. He sat in the upper 80?s at the time, then his velo steadily climbed a tick each month until he hit the mid-90?s in 2013. He only pitched a handful of innings in 2013 due to a sore arm, which is somewhat expected for a teenager whose climbing velocity is putting new stresses on his arm. Lopez got back on the mound in 2014 and took off, sitting 93-97 and hitting 100 mph on many occasions. He adds and subtracts from his fastball, showing surprising feel for a young power arm and his changeup and command both flash average to slightly above potential because of his advanced body control and feel for his delivery. This new velo was the result of the player development staff helping Lopez tweak his delivery before 2014, making him more direct to the plate and more downhill to leverage the ball better and cut out the east/west movement in his delivery. With the newness of his big stuff, we still don’t know what Lopez’s upside is, so his 2015 will be watched closely by teams hoping the Nats make him available in trade talks.
58. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 70/70, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 50/45, Field: 50/50, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Judge generated a lot of buzz after a summer on the Cape when the 6-foot-7/250 athletic monster showed huge power, but inconsistent game performances. That continued in the spring at Fresno State, when he only tapped into his plus plus raw power at times, often option to shorten up and hit singles or struggling versus advanced pitchers, which is why he slid to the end of the first round. Multiple clubs I talked to didn’t have him anywhere close to the first round and some area scouts turned him in as a middle round pick. He blew away those expectations in his pro debut this year, hitting 21 homers and making plenty of contact. He’ll be 23 in Double-A next year and that will give us a better idea of if he’s a solid everyday guy or a potential star, but there’s clearly more here than people were expecting.
59. Aaron Blair, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Blair has slowly improved since being drafted last June that some in the organization have him as the #1 prospect in the system. He isn’t as flashy as Bradley and Shipley, but Blair has three pitches that all have been plus at times for scouts and are all regularly above average. One scout compared Blair’s ability to get heavy life on pitches to Roy Halladay, in part due to how big Blair’s hands are, while another scout compared him to John Lackey or Lance Lynn, a big and unspectacular but steady #3/4 starter that outperforms more heralded talents. Blair sits 90-94 and has been up to 96 mph with improved arm speed this season. He throws a lot of strikes and the heavy life on his fastball helps induce weak contact rather than a ton of strikeouts. Blair’s curveball was the concern as an amateur and early in his pro career, but now consistently shows average with some grading it as high as plus at times, while hi changeup has been above average all along. He’ll likely get a big league look at some point in 2015.
60. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 45/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Rosario got the biggest international bonus in club history two years ago and has done nothing but impress since then. Scouts have called him special and the most athletic player in the Mets system. He has the live body, quick hands, instincts and ability to adjust to challenges along with the broad shoulders to project more strength to come. Rosario skipped the DSL and adjusted as older competition came at him; this is the high ceiling guy with feel for the game that you can dream on. Rosario has feel to stay inside the ball and works the middle of the field in games, with a surprising amount of homers to right-center field already. Scouts have mentioned Addison Russell, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Beltre as possible comps and each has some things in common with Rosario, but his full-season debut will tell us more about the kind of player he’s becoming.
61. Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
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Hit: 20/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: As you may guess, Raul (who went by his middle name Adalberto when he signed) is the son of former Dodger RF Raul Mondesi, who is now the mayor of his hometown in the Dominican Republic. The Royals took some flack for giving him $2 million in the 2011 July 2nd period, but he improved greatly after signing and has made that investment look shrewd. There aren’t questions about Mondesi’s speed, defense, arm strength or raw power, but the aggressive way the Royals have promoted him have raised questions about his bat. He played all of last season in High-A at age 18/19, the same age as an American high school senior, so you can imagine why he struggled with the bat. It’s hard to see impact, even from a good swing with bat speed, when the hitter is overmatched, so it’s difficult to get really excited about Mondesi until he isn’t being thrown in the deep end of the pool developmentally, but it’s hard to ignore his ability.
62. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Iglesias was exclusively a reliever in Cuba and would get into the mid-90?s at times with an above average slider, with most teams thinking that was a preview of his eventual big league fit. The Reds see these types of talents as an opportunity to develop those talents in a rotation (Nick Howard and Michael Lorenzen below are recent domestic examples) and with the successful Aroldis Chapman contract behind, took another gamble of a talented Cuban reliever. Iglesias jumped from the fringes off this list into the middle of it with electric appearances in the Arizona Fall League and instructs. He sat 91-95 and hit 97 mph in these outings, with his stuff varying a bit in each outing. Iglesias is about to turn 25 and there’s some east/west, inconsistency and effort to his delivery, but scouts see the elements of average command in the tank. Iglesias has a four pitch mix and his slider will flash plus every now and then, so there’s mid-rotation upside. He’ll either go to Triple-A and join a deep staff or break with the big league club in the bullpen; it sounds right now like the big league bullpen is his likely starting point but, like with Chapman, the rotation will be tried once the innings get built up.
63. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies
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Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Some teams were skeptical before the draft of McMahon’s ability to corral his long limbs to make enough contact long-term, but some scouts I talked to were all-in after an impressive full-season debut. One scout argued McMahon could be the Rockies #1 prospect right now and with Gray/Butler possibly graduating next year and McMahon heading to the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2015, that may happen next year. He strikes out more than you’d like to see, but McMahon is just 19 and was also a star quarterback in high school (another example of a Rockies draft pick with that on his resume), so there’s still a need for reps. McMahon projects for plus raw power and, while he isn’t there right now, most believe with some work he will be able to stick at third base long-term.
64. C.J. Edwards, RHP, Chicago Cubs
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Edwards was a near unknown pitcher as an amateur; you don’t see many pitchers this high on prospect lists that signed for $50,000 out of high school in the 48th round. The Cubs smartly grabbed him from Texas in the Matt Garza trade late in his breakout season in 2013. He’s still a rail-thin righty that some think will never add the necessary bulk to throw 200 innings in the big leagues, but the stuff and command projects for the middle of the rotation. He’ll head back to Double-A to begin 2015 but could be a big league rotation option in 2016.
65. Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 40/50, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Matz was a high school draft out of New York state that was a raw talent to begin with, but he then lost about two years of development time at the beginning of his career, due to a Tommy John surgery and some complications. He did well in Low-A last year, then took a big step forward this year over High-A and Double-A, putting him in conversation of the Mets deep upper levels of pitching. Matz works 91-95 and hits 96 mph with an above average to plus changeup and a curveball that’s improved dramatically to now flash average to slightly above. He’s an excellent athlete that commands his fastball well and his maturity and ability to improve has impressed the Mets. There’s a #3 starter in here if it all comes together, but the curveball and command of his off-speed is still inconsistent, not to mention his age and injury history give scouts some pause.
66. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Taillon was one of the more hyped high school pitchers in recent memory, with both the Pirates and Orioles ranking him first on their draft boards, ahead of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. He flashed the same power stuff in pro ball as he did in high school, with an explosive mid-90’s fastball and a curveball that was a 70 at times, though his changeup and command lagged behind. There wasn’t really a question if Taillon could stick as a starter, he just had trouble with some finer points of pitching and consistency. Then, his elbow popped and he got Tommy John surgery last year, knocking out his entire 2014 season. He’ll return in the middle of the season in the upper levels and should be a big league option in 2016, assuming everything comes back as expected.
67. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
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Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Hoffman was a known power arm for the 2014 draft at East Carolina, then he broke out in the summer before the draft on the Cape (see linked video), flashing an 80 fastball and 65 or 70 curveball from an athletic delivery, projectable frame and shockingly good feel to pitch given the power stuff. He didn’t look the same in the spring, as just as he was making adjustments to his delivery to regain form, his elbow popped and he won’t return until until mid-season in 2015. Even with the surgery taking Hoffman out of #1 overall pick contention, the Jays thought he wouldn’t get out of the top 5, so they were pleased to land him with the 9th overall pick. He drew comparisons to Adam Wainwright and Justin Verlander on the Cape, so if he regains that form, he could shoot to the top of this list in short order.
68. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
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Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: The 6-foot-4/185 lefty was half of what may have been the best 1-2 punch in high school baseball history, with Nationals top prospect RHP Lucas Giolito at Harvard Westlake High School in 2012. Unfortunately, Giolito’s senior season ended prematurely with soreness that led to Tommy John surgery and Fried himself also had the surgery performed on him this past August; the Braves acquired him from San Diego this winter as the headliner in the Justin Upton deal. He’s due back on the mound sometime around fall instructional league in 2015. Even in those few starts before his elbow popped in 2014, Fried’s stuff was still pretty close to his peak stuff: 90-93, hitting 96 mph with a plus curveball and improving above average changeup. His stuff will vary start to start and his changeup flashes 60 for some scouts, but not often and never when at the same time as his curveball. Fried’s clean mechanics aren’t a concern and he has lots of projection to his frame, so these future grades could be conservative; the upside is huge, with one scout mentioning Cole Hamels, but it’s still very early.
69. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Atlanta Braves
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Fastball: 70/80, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Foltynewicz got an 18.2 inning taste of the big leagues late in 2014 and started 18 of his 21 minor league appearances, but is far from a finished product. He sits 95-98 mph and has hit 100 mph as a starter with a curveball that flashes plus at times, but his lack of command of the pitch causes the pitch to play closer to average at times. His changeup has flashed plus for some scouts, but plays average to slightly above for most. There’s a lack of feel here that causes many to doubt Foltynewicz’s future as a starter. He’s a solid athlete and his delivery isn’t that bad but he hasn’t quite put it all together ye. The Braves top scouts have seen the best version of Foltynewicz and they’re confident that big league pitching coach Roger McDowell can coax the starter traits out of Folty on a regular basis, likely in the big leagues in 2015.
70. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
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Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Sanchez has a sturdy 6-foot-4/200 frame and loose arm that helped him go in the sandwich round in 2010 out of a southern California high school. He was a raw pitcher with flashes of power stuff, but Sanchez has really grown into his velocity since then, sitting 95-98 and hitting 99 mph in 33 big league relief innings at the end of 2014. As his off-speed stuff has improved to give Sanchez at least mid-rotation stuff, the question remains if he fits better there or as a closer. Toronto’s #5 starter spot is still an open competition along with at least one bullpen slot, so Sanchez has the opportunity this year to prove where he fits.
71. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 70/80, Slider: 60/65, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45, FV: 55
Scouting Report: The 6-foot-9/220 monster sat 98-100 mph for two innings in the linked video in last year’s Arizona Fall League debut. He surprised some scouts by lasting the whole season in the rotation at Triple-A this year, throwing 130.1 innings with lesser but still elite stuff, sitting 93-98 with plus life and the knockout slider. Meyer’s changeup has improved and flashes solid-average while his huge frame and long limbs give him trouble commanding his pitches and repeating his delivery. Most scouts think he ends up as a shutdown closer, but the Twins are trying to make him a starter and there’s still a chance Meyer gets there. If he can tone everything down to where it’s repeatable, the upside is probably a #3 starter but this seems destined for the bullpen at some point, with a 2015 big league look likely once an spot opens up.
72. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Nick is the son of Tom Gordon and the brother of Marlins 2B Dee Gordon, so the bloodlines are good and when Nick was a high school sophomore, his senior teammates were first rounders RF Jesse Winker and RHP Walker Weickel. Combine that with the fact that Nick was noticeable as a top prospect in his class as early as his freshman year and he seemed to be at every major showcase or tournament his entire prep career and it’s easy to see why scout were comfortable with him by draft time. Between October and January showcases, Gordon appeared to put on about 10 pounds and mature physically, turning him from a late first rounder into the 5th overall pick. He doesn’t have flashy tools other than his plus arm that allowed him to hit 95 mph on the mound, so there isn’t much margin for error, but Gordon has excellent feel for the game, helped by working with Barry Larkin during earlier this year.
73. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins
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Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Slider: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Stewart was the 4th overall pick in 2013 as an athletic righty that flashed plus stuff at times and was also a four star quarterback recruit committed to Texas A&M. He’s had some ups and down in pro ball with his stuff varying from game-to-game, but he’s still relatively new to the mound and arm speed variations are normal for young arms with limited experience.
74. Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins
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Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Kolek jumped on the national scene in the summer of 2013 after hitting 100 mph at the Area Code Games regional tryout in Texas, just after the 2013 MLB Draft. He then showed up at most of the major events over the summer, where his velocity ranged from 93-98, hitting 100 mph in early innings, but sometimes would dip to the low 90?s in longer outings. His sharp low-80?s curveball would flash plus but was often just average to above, while he only very sparingly threw a nascent changeup. As prep pitchers often do, Kolek’s velo slipped after the draft and he looked quite ordinary, but this is a long-term play by the Marlins. If Kolek can maintain his peak stuff, he’s got a chance to be a frontline starter, which is rare, but there’s a long way to go and there’s plenty of risk along the way.
75. Vince Velasquez, RHP, Houston Astros
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Velasquez has been a standout talent when healthy, but he has a long history of injuries. He had a strained ligament and stress fracture in his throwing elbow in his junior year of high school, then after going in the 2nd round and throwing 29.1 pro innings in 2010, Velasquez missed all of 2011 with Tommy John surgery. He also didn’t look his best in the Arizona Fall League after a solid season, with multiple teams telling me they were spooked enough by the medical to avoid him in trade talks. When he’s right, Velasquez sits 91-95 with a plus changeup and an improving curveball that flashes average to slightly above, to go with some feel to pitch that draw solid-average command grades. He’s also an excellent athlete that looks on the mound like he could grab a stick and play in the field if he wanted to. Some scouts that saw him at his peak prefer him to Appel, but the spotty history makes that a hard stance to support without more healthy innings from Velasquez.
76. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
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Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Reyes grew up in New Jersey then moved to the Dominican, where he signed with the Cardinals for $850,000. He checks all the boxes as a young power arm, with a projectable 6-foot-3/185 frame, a solid delivery, and easy plus fastball that sits 92-95 and hits 97 mph along withe a curveball that flashes plus. He’s still learning the finer points of his craft, with his command and consistency of his off-speed stuff varying start-to-start. He’ll be 20 in High-A next year and could be on the fast track to the big leagues with some key adjustments.
77. Michael Conforto, LF, New York Mets
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Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Conforto was a well-known as an elite hitting prospect early in his career at Oregon State but kicked it into another gear in his draft year. His plus raw power and bat speed from the left side to go with a patient and power-focused approach appealed to a lot of scouts, with the Mets taking Conforto off the board at 10th overall. He earned a shaky defensive reputation in college and when I saw him in the summer after his sophomore year for Team USA, his arm was a 40 or 45 and he was still having some difficulty getting good jumps. He took a step forward in his draft spring, looking about average defensively with his arm suddenly playing average to slightly above. The idea that he was a first baseman was gone and the coaches in Brooklyn raved about Conforto’s defense after he signed. The bat is the carrying tool for Conforto and he’s the same age as Nimmo, so it’ll be interesting to compare their development over the next few years as advanced corner bats.
78. Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 40/35, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Sisco was an under-the-radar draft prospect that didn’t go to the big showcases and only started catching in his senior year, because he pitched and played multiple positions. He’s still rough at times behind the plate, but it’s more due to a lack of experience with the little things than a lack of ability. The tools are there to stick behind the plate and be average defensively, with enough arm for the position, though Sisco needs to work on quickening his release. The carrying tool here is the bat and scouts grade it anywhere from 55 to 70, despite Sisco’s highest pro experience coming at Low-A. One scout said Sisco’s approach and offensive tools are similar to former Orioles RF Nick Markakis.
79. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland A’s
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/45, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 65/65, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Barreto was known to international scouts for years before he signed for $1.45 million on July 2nd, 2012 from Venezuela. There’s something to be said for smaller kids reaching their potential sooner than the more projectable, higher upside prospects, but don’t mistake Barreto for a low upside prospect just due to his size. He’s a plus runner that very well could end up sticking at shortstop, where he plays now and has made improvements, though most scouts see his actions and size and assume he slides over to second base or out to center field. At the least, he’ll offer the ability to play all three positions in the big leagues if needed. He’s so advanced at the plate that he may play both A-Ball levels in 2015 and zoom through the system, which is why the A’s made him a key part of the Josh Donaldson trade.
50 FV Prospects (Tier of 63)
80. Dalton Pompey, CF, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 45/45, Game Power: 35/40, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 45/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Pompey was a little-known, young-for-his-class Canadian high schooler in the 2011 draft and stayed under the radar until a strong finish to his 2013 campaign in Low-A. He shot through the system in 2014, going form High-A to the big leagues after he kept impressing at each level when the Blue Jays though he may settle in. Pompey will start in Triple-A or the big leagues in 2015 and is the center fielder of the future, but the tools are more solid everyday than star material.
81. Stephen Piscotty, RF, St. Louis Cardinals
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Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 35/50, Run: 45/45+, Field: 50/50, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Piscotty has been a steady if unspectacular prospect for years, showing above average tools and performance. He had and excuse for his raw power not showing up enough in games because he went to Stanford where they literally yell at hitters to not hit homers in batting practice. Piscotty hit nine homer sin a full Triple-A season last year, so with little progress and in today’s muted offensive environment, that’s one of the top 60 corner outfielders in the game, but the raw power is there for 20 homers, which would make him a middle of the order type bat.
82. Marco Gonzales, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
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Fastball: 50/50, Slider: 45/50, Curveball: 50/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: In the 2013 draft, Gonzales was seen as a quick-moving college lefty with above average command and a plus changeup, but probably just #4 starter upside. He shot through the minors and had his first speed bump in his big league audition, but some minor adjustments should unlock a steady, league-average starter in short order.
83. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 20/40, Run: 70/70, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Turner was barely known by scouts in high school, then was seen as a possible first rounder after a huge freshman year at N.C. State. He has a chance to go in the top five picks with his teammate LHP Carlos Rodon (#8 on this list) entering his junior season, but trouble with swing mechanics led to an up-and-down draft year. Rodon went 3rd overall and Turner went 13th overall, with Turner being dealt this summer in a three-way deal with Tampa Bay and San Diego, but he can’t be formally sent to the Nationals until one year after he signed, which will be this June. I’m a high guy on Turner in the industry and I may adjust his hit grade up a notch with a strong start to 2015.
84. Brandon Drury, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Drury was traded from Atlanta to Arizona as a secondary piece in the first Justin Upton deal. He’s steadily made progress since a slow start to pro ball and now is knocking on the door of the big leagues with solid tools across the board. The D’Backs toyed with trying Drury at second base in the Arizona Fall League since he had such good range at third, but his bat is what will carry him; I may be a grade light on it.
85. Brandon Nimmo, RF, New York Mets
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Nimmo has an unusual background as a 1st rounder from a Wyoming high school, where they don’t even have organized high school baseball. He played for a travel team leading up to the draft and teams liked his smooth lefty stroke, power potential and plus athleticism. Nimmo probably ends up in right field and is still working through his fit on the offensive contact/power and aggressive/passive spectrum, but the tools are here for an above average everyday right fielder and he’s performed well while being young for his level.
86. Andrew Susac, C, San Francisco Giants
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Hit: 40/45+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 40/50, Run: 35/35, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Susac is pretty well explained by his tool grades and he’s near big league ready. He’s can catch and throw at least league average and his ultimate upside comes down to how much contact he makes and how much of his 20-homer power he gets to in games.
87. Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 45/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 55/55, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Orlando is the younger brother of Twins OF Oswaldo Arcia and has been beating expectations since he signed out of Venezuela in 2010 for $95,000. After signing, he immediately looked like a steal as a skinny kid that could play shortstop and hit a bit, but he took another step forward this year, hitting 13% better than league average, stealing 31 bases and posting great plate discipline numbers in a full season at High-A last year at age 19. He’ll head to Double-A next year at age 20 and has the look of a solid everyday shortstop.
88. Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/60, Curveball: 40/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Lorenzen, like Howard below (#128 on the list) was drafted as a two-way college closer with limited experience on the mound, particularly in long outings. Lorenzen surprised the Reds with his feel for pitching and his ability to hold his sinker-slider combo that flashes plus late into outings. There’s mid-rotation upside here, but Lorenzen still needs to work on some of the finer points of setting up hitters.
89. Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Fastball: 55/65, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Holmes may have been my favorite prep pitcher in last year’s draft. He’s only 6-foot tall and has no physical projection remaining, but he’s strong, has feel to pitch and has knockout #2 starter stuff. Holmes hit 100 mph early in the spring but more commonly sits 92-94, hitting 96 mph with an easy plus curveball and changeup that flashes above average.
90. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
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Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 50/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Adames is one of the most recent examples of the Tigers developing a solid prospect and dealing him as soon as he had significant trade value, like RHP Jake Thompson (#29 on this list) who was used to get RHP Joakim Soria. Adames had a breakout year at Low-A in 2014 and was the significant second piece used to get LHP David Price. The Rays were pleasantly surprised how quickly the 19-year-old Adames became a leader for their Low-A club after the trade, but the reason they traded for him was his advanced feel for the game and easy everyday tools.
91. Raimel Tapia, CF, Colorado Rockies
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Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 30/40, Raw Power: 35/45, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Tapia is rail-thin and his swing is kinda funny-looking, but he hits so much (.342/.392/.503 in over 700 PA in domestic leagues) that scouts are starting to mention those things less often. He’ll head to the hitter-friendly Cal League next year and will rake again, but his upside is limited a bit by his size and power. One scout said a bad outcome for Tapia would be turning into Jon Jay, with a good chance he’s better than that.
92. Albert Almora, CF, Chicago Cubs
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Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 55/55, Field: 60/65, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Almora was my favorite player in the 2012 draft class due to his advanced instincts and feel for the game on both sides of the ball. He’s still that guy, but had a hamate injury and has had some struggles at the plate because he’s such an aggressive hitter. He’ll need to make some adjustments to his approach since Double-A was the first level where he couldn’t hit with that approach. If he makes some progress there, he has 15+ homer power and near Gold Glove defense, so there’s some real ceiling despite just solid raw tools.
93. Max Pentecost, C, Toronto Blue Jays
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Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 20/45+, Game Power: 45/50+, Run: 55/50+, Field: 45/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Pentecost was the breakout prospect in last summer’s Cape Cod League as a super-athletic catcher from a small school (Kennesaw State), that was a so-so physical away from signing with Texas out of high school. I was the high guy on him much of the spring, with the industry catching up when Theo Epstein was spotted at a Pentecost game and rumors spread that he may go #4 overall. Pentecost ended up going #11 overall and has unusual tools for a catcher with a ridiculous amount of energy (watch the end of the linked video) and every tool solid average or better, though his line drive approach in games causes his raw power to play down right now.
94. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/50+, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Zimmer’s pure ability belongs much higher on this list, with frontline stuff, a clean delivery and outstanding athleticism that helps creates solid average command. Zimmer has also been to Double-A already and could turn into a frontline starter, but he can’t stay healthy, throwing 14.1 innings last year due to arm trouble, then leaving the Arizona Fall League after three outings to get shoulder surgery. Scouts assume he won’t be able to handle a starter’s workload and he should just be used in relief, but now we don’t know if the stuff will come back after surgery, so there’s lots of questions, risk and upside here.
95. Erick Fedde, RHP, Washington Nationals
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Fedde broke out last summer for Team USA and on the Cape, then steadily climbed up draft boards to the point that he was a consensus top 10 pick when he was forced to get Tommy John surgery before the draft. The Nats drafted him in the back half of the first round knowing they normally don’t have a chance to pick this kind of talent and all indications are solid from his rehab. There’s mid-rotation upside with a slight chance for more, and elbow surgery has something like an 85% success rate, so if he comes back later this year with the same stuff, Fedde will move up this list a healthy amount.
96. Justin O’Conner, C, Tampa Bay Rays
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Hit: 20/45, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 40/40, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 80/80, FV: 50
Scouting Report: O’Conner was a raw first round pick in 2011 out of an Indiana high school, with multiple teams having him in the middle rounds because they didn’t think he’d hit enough. That looked to be the case until this year, when things clicked across the board for O’Conner and he stood out offensively in High-A and the Arizona Fall League and getting back on track on an age-versus-level basis by hitting Double-A late in the year. O’Conner is still a power over hit guy that will strike out a fair amount, but the offensive standard for catchers is low and he’ll be at least average behind the plate and likely be better due to his top-of-the-scale 80 arm with a freaky quick release that allows him to put up ridiculous pop times in the 1.7s.
97. Daniel Robertson, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 45/45, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Robertson was acquired by the Rays from the A’s this winter in the Ben Zobrist trade and he’s a steady player with solid tools that still gets somewhat wide-ranging reviews from scouts. From my limited look at his this fall, he can’t play shortstop and at least one-third of scouts agreed with what I saw, which I also realize could’ve just been a bad look. The A’s, Rays and execs from other clubs are convinced after seeing him a lot over the past few years that he can play shortstop, which would help his solid average bat fit even better in the lineup. I think Robertson fits as an offensive second baseman who may hit 15-18 homers, so even Robertson’s detractors see a solid everyday player.
98. Marcos Molina, RHP, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 45/55, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Molina threw in the mid-80’s when he signed at age 16 out of the Dominican Republic, then his stuff ticked up in short stints in 2013 to hit the mid-90’s. This year, he was able to showcase that stuff over full outings at age 19, sitting 91-94 and hitting 97 mph. He was a pitchability guy with a good changeup when he was a soft-tosser, and Molina has kept those elements, with his fastball and slider ticking up with the added arm speed. Molina will head to a very pitcher-friendly park in Low-A Savannah next year and scouts are predicting a big year; if the stuff ticks up just one more notch, he’ll easily be in the top 50 next year.
99. Rob Kaminsky, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
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Fastball: 50/50+, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Kaminsky isn’t the typical 1st round high school pitcher as he’s listed at 5-foot-11/191, but the stuff is big and there’s advanced feel to pitch. Kaminsky sits in the low-90’s, his changeup took a step forward in his first full year and his plus curveball is a now weapon that could get big leaguers out. The Cardinals have a good track record with developing young pitchers and Kaminsky is about as advanced as cold-weather bred 20-year-old arm can be, so he might move fast.
100. Jacob Lindgren, LHP, New York Yankees
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 60/65, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: The biggest surprise so far from the 2014 draft was the meteoric post-draft rise of Lindgren. In 2013, he was a generic sophomore lefty with fringy stuff starting for Mississippi State, then he asked to be moved to relief in the fall, he hit the mid-90’s with a nasty slider and never looked back. Lindgren carved up the SEC and the Yankees took him in the 2nd round. He then proceeded to carve up the minors with equally impressive numbers and he’s now knocking on the door of the big leagues with closer level stuff and just enough of the feel from his starter days to spot his hellacious slider where he wants it.
101. Clint Frazier, CF, Cleveland Indians
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/5, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Frazier was the most fun player to watch in the 2013 draft class, with an out-of-control red mop of hair and Gary Sheffield-level 80 bat speed that allowed him to put on ridiculous batting practice displays at his small home park. Frazier had some trouble making contact in high school against soft-tosser because it causes problems for him to try to slow down his incredibly fast hands. He had some similar timing and approach issues in his full-season debut, striking out in nearly 30% of his at bats, but flashing the same huge tools. Frazier is just fast enough to play center field and he might hit 30 homers, but he fits fine in right field if he ends up there eventually.
102. Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees
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Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Speed: 80/80, Field: 45/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Mateo was generating a lot of buzz this summer in Rookie ball for the Yankees, but he broke his finger before I was able to get out to see him. I saw him this fall in instructional league and I saw where there was so much buzz around him; he has top-of-the-scale 80 speed, has the tools to stick at shortstop, has surprising pop and was hanging with pitches three or four years older than him. Mateo still has a very short track record, so his full-season debut in 2015 will be closely watched, with a good shot Mateo moves up on next year’s list.
103. Josh Bell, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Bell was considered unsignable out of a Texas high school in 2011, but the Pirates took him in the 2nd round and signed him for $5 million, seeing a dynamic right fielder. He still probably fits best as a right fielder, so I’ll list him there, but the Pirates have three center field-caliber defenders entrenched in their lineup (Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco), a huge outfield that necessitates this kind of ability, and a hole to fill long-term at first base. So, since defense was never a big part of his game, Pittsburgh is shifting Bell to first and he’s still new over there, so it’s a little rough, but he should be fine. He may not be the middle-of-the-order terror the Pirates were expecting, but the bat should be enough to profile everyday at any position.
104. Brian Johnson, LHP, Boston Red Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 50/50, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 50/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Johnson was on a loaded 2012 Florida team that included C Mike Zunino, SS Nolan Fontana, LF Preston Tucker, RHP Jonathon Crawford and LHP Paco Rodriguez, among others. Johnson had above average power from the left side and served as DH at times, but his upside was on the mound, as a pitchability lefty that flashes above average stuff. On any given day, Johnson’s stuff may be closer to average, but his feel for pitching helps it to play up; he’s likely to hit his upside as a back-end starter, but there isn’t much more in the tank.
105. Miguel Almonte, RHP, Kansas City Royals
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 45/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Almonte will flash huge ability at times, sitting 93-96 mph with a plus changeup at times, but he often doesn’t have that peak combination at the same time that he has his peak curveball and peak command. He also throws from a lower slot, which means lefties can see the ball better against him than other righties and it also can flatten out his pitches at times. If Almonte can find more consistency in his delivery, that should go a long way towards correcting these issues and unlocking his mid-rotation upside.
106. Christian Bethancourt, C, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 30/45, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 30/45, Run: 40/40, Field: 55/60, Throw: 80/80, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Bethancourt has long been known to scouts as a standout defender with an 80 arm, but he hasn’t had much polish to his game on either side of the ball until recently. He made strides with the finer points of his defense and finally starting putting up offensive numbers in the last couple years, giving the Braves a comfort level with letting Brian McCann leave, as Bethancourt will step in this year with the starting job.
107. Brett Phillips, CF, Houston Astros
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 70/70, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Phillips was a late-rising prep prospect in the 2012 draft as an all-county wide receiver and linebacker who emerged a standout center fielder in his draft year. He was seen as an above average to plus runner that can play center field, standing out for his plus plus arm and contact ability. Phillips took another step forward in 2014, adding strength to his frame and hitting for more power while keeping his speed. If he keeps hitting like this in 2015, Phillips will likely work his way into the middle of the top 100 next year.
108. Jorge Polanco, 2B, Minnesota Twins
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Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 30/40, Run: 50/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Scouts seem to slightly prefer Polanco to Herrera, as both are basically big league ready second basemen with similar tools, so they’re easy to compare. The separator is that Polanco can play shortstop if needed, so if the bat doesn’t play as much as expected, he can be a true utility player. Both have advanced bats and below average game power, so it’s basically a coin flip, but Polanco gives more defensive versatility with the same overall tools while Herrera has a better offensive track record.
109. Dilson Herrera, 2B, New York Mets
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Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 40/45, Run: 50/50+, Field: 45/50, Throw: 45/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Herrera follows in the footsteps of Rangers 2B Rougned Odor as a smallish Latin second baseman that was a known quantity on July 2nd, but had to settle for a low six figure bonus due to a lack of flashy tools. Both raked their way to the big leagues as potential everyday players, so maybe teams should change how they look at this kind of guy, but even now scouts find it hard to go all-in on Herrera. His swing is funny, he doesn’t project to hit for a lot of game power and he can only play second base, but he also raked his way to the big leagues at age 20 and there’s enough here for an everyday player.
110. Kyle Freeland, LHP, Colorado Rockies
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Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Freeland stood out on the Cape as a potential first rounder, then took another step forward this spring, when he was untouchable down the stretch, flashing plus stuff and advanced command. The problem is that an elbow surgery as a high school freshman contributed to big questions about his medical on draft day, with some teams telling me they wouldn’t take him in the first round at all, though Colorado took the hometown kid at 8th overall for an under-slot bonus. The mechanics aren’t great but the stuff can be at times, so it’ll be interesting to see if Freeland can stay healthy and if he can continue showing the premium stuff he did down the stretch in 2014.
111. Nick Kingham, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/50, Changeup: 55/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Kingham isn’t a sexy prospect, but he’s near big league ready and projects as a steady, league-average #4 starter. What I’m supposed to say now is that this kind of player is worth over $10 million a year on the open market, so this is the key, cost-controlled contributor that smaller market teams like PIttsburgh need. I guess I did say it, I’m just trying to let you know Kingham isn’t the super exciting prospect whose video you can’t wait to watch.
112. Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Sims was another 1st round high school pick of a local Atlanta kid by the Braves and, though he had a tough 1st half in 2014, he regrouped down the stretch and is back on track. One scout compared Sims’ talent to Matt Cain out of high school and, while the body types are different, on Sims’ best day he shows that kind of stuff. His curveball regressed a bit in 2014, but it’s flashed plus at times and the ability is there for at least average command, so mid-rotation upside is still on the table.
113. Francelis Montas, RHP, Chicago White Sox
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Fastball: 60/70, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Montas was acquired from the Red Sox in the Jake Peavy deal in 2013 and he’s emerged as more than just a circus act in Rookie ball that hit 100 mph. Montas has steadily improved, with his average slider taking a big step forward this year to now flashing plus, his changeup is now enough to give him a starter’s repertoire and he still hits 100 mph at times. The question is whether his delivery and command fit as a starter and most think he ends up as a closer, but there’s still a chance he figures out a way to fit as a mid-rotation starter.
114. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 35/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: I saw Toussaint pitch in his sophomore year of high school and he was very athletic, sitting 88-91 mph with a plus curveball at age 16. He blew up the following fall before his junior year, when he hit 97 mph and flashed a 70 curveball in front of hundreds of scouts at a high profile tournament. He stalled a bit in the summer before his senior year and early in his draft spring, scuffling in the low-90’s with diminished stuff and little command. He broke out later in the spring, flashing the same power stuff from before, but choosing to dial it down a notch and working in a new changeup, so he could successfully command it and get hitters out. This adjustment got Toussaint drafted in the middle of the first round, but there’s still a long way to go.
115. Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
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Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Medeiros was one of the most unique pitchers in the 2014 draft, as a skinny 6-foot-1 prep lefty from Hawaii that throws from a near sidearm angle, but hits 95 mph with an easy plus slider. Scouts weren’t sure where to rank such a unique prospect, but he steadily moved up boards into the mid-to-late first round, with a sterling pre-draft workout in Milwaukee prompting the Brewers to draft him at 12th overall. There’s mid-rotation or closer upside and it’s too early to have a good idea of what he’ll turn into.
116. Spencer Adams, RHP, Chicago White Sox
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 45/50+, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Adams is a classic multi-sport, athletic projection prospect: he sat in the high-80’s as a junior, then sat in the low-90’s and hit 96 mph in his draft spring. Scouts liked that he had four pitches and advanced feel to turn over a changeup despite playing a lot of basketball, where the 6-foot-5 Adams stood out (and dunked often). Adams has a chance to rocket up this list if his performance in pro ball matches his considerable upside and some rival teams think he’s most likely in this group to be in the top quarter of this list in a few years.
117. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Texas Rangers
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Ortiz drew Jose Fernandez comparisons from some scouts this spring, with a pre-draft elbow scare causing him to slip to the end of the first round to the Rangers. When healthy, Ortiz has consistently shown two plus pitches and all the traits you want to see from a future starter, so he’s about as close to reaching his #3 starter upside as a 19-year-old can be at this point.
118. Brad Zimmer, RF, Cleveland Indians
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 50/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 60/55, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: This summer, Zimmer was another highly athletic first rounder out of the University of San Francisco like his brother Kyle (#93 on this list). Brad is a hitter that’s drawn comparisons to Marlins OF Christian Yelich for his long frame, deceptive speed, and contact approach. Zimmer can play a solid center field now, but likely moves to right field eventually, with further physical projection and/or adding loft to his swing potentially making him a really good starter, if he can hit for average and power in games.
119. Roberto Osuna, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
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Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Osuna signed for $1.5 million in 2011 as a 16-year-old out of Mexico. He had a mature frame and had hit 95 mph, but sat around 90 and relied on pitchability and an above average to plus changeup. He returned from Tommy John surgery late this year and his velocity jumped a couple ticks, to the surprise and delight of Blue Jays execs. He’s now sitting 92-94 and hitting 97 mph, sitting a few ticks higher in short stints, with a slider and cutter that are both above average and the same changeup as before. The command hasn’t quite come back but that usually happens in year two or three after surgery, so Osuna could shoot up this list soon.
120. Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 35/35, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Bird is indeed the word after Greg breakout 2014 season, which came on the heels of a shockingly good full-season debut in 2013. The converted catcher is first base-only, so he has to mash to be an everyday player and he doesn’t show you much power in batting practice, but really stands out in games. Bird has plus power and good plate discipline, with some comparing him to a non-injury-prone Nick Johnson.
121. Colin Moran, 3B, Houston Astros
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Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Moran is arguably the most polarizing prospect in the minor leagues and I delved into why at length at the full report linked to above. The short version is that he’s an unexciting player who hits well, doesn’t have much power, is a gangly, low energy kid that, at first glance, can’t play third base. The good version is that he really hits, he has good plate discipline, there’s reason to believe the power is coming and he’s a late bloomer for upstate New York that can stick at third and has generally been young for his minor league levels, even though he went to college. Sort through all that and decide what you think; this ranking is splitting the difference on people that think he’s top 100 quality or barely a prospect worth mentioning.
122. Alex Blandino, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
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Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 50/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Blandino hit two straight summers on the Cape but struggled during the spring with the short-sighted hitting philosophy at Stanford. He broke out in his draft year and showed more raw power, hitting his way into the first round. The Reds think he might be able to stick at shortstop and he played third base at Stanford, but most scouts have thought for years that Blandino’s best fit is at second base.
123. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
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Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 40/45+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Last summer on the high school showcase circuit, Flaherty was seen as a top-three round caliber third baseman with a super-athletic long, projectable frame and a smooth swing. Scouts knew he also pitched, but he didn’t throw over the summer and has fringy to average stuff as a junior. In his senior year, Flaherty took a big step forward on the mound, flashing three above average pitches and above average command with a clean delivery, a projectable athletic frame and limited miles on his arm. There isn’t a plus pitch right now and he hasn’t thrown a ton in the last year, but Flaherty has just about everything else going for him.
124. Duane Underwood, RHP, Chicago Cubs
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Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Underwood was an inconsistent prep arm from Atlanta in the 2012 draft that, early in his pro career, look to be more bust than boom. He turned things around and had a breakout 2014 campaign in Low-A, flashing three plus pitches at times. Underwood still has trouble with command at time and he often only has one or two of his pitches working in any given outing, so there’s plenty of room for growth with #2/3 starter upside if he brings it all together.
125. Pierce Johnson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Johnson popped up in his draft year at Missouri State flashing above average stuff, slipping on draft day due to some concerns about his delivery, command and future health prospects. Johnson has avoided major injuries and performed well, with his above average to plus fastball-curveball combo giving him #3 starter upside, but the command and consistency have been bugaboos and he may ultimate fit best in the bullpen.
126. Lance McCullers, RHP, Houston Astros
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Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 35/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: McCullers’ father was a big leaguer and Lance Jr. hit 95 mph as a 15-year-old at Tampa area powerhouse Jesuit High School. He’s been a high-profile name for years and the Astros signed him to a $2.5 million bonus in 2012 with some of the savings from an under-slot deal with #1 overall pick SS Carlos Correa (#5 on this list). McCullers has a nasty fastball-curveball combo that’s plus-plus on the right day and would easily make him a closer if he can’t stick as a starter.
127. Travis Demeritte, 2B, Texas Rangers
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Hit: 20/50, Game Power: 20/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 50/50+, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Demeritte drew Brandon Phillips comparisons as an offensive standout Atlanta-area prep shortstop that projected to move to second base. He hit for power in his full-season debut, but didn’t make as much contact as you’d like to see. Demeritte has feel to hit and above average bat speed, so it’s more a matter of striking a contact/power balance. He has solid everyday tools and could move quick, but probably won’t be a star.
128. Nick Howard, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Howard was the closer for UVA last spring and blew away ACC hitters with a fastball he ran up to 98 mph and a plus slider. He’s a big athlete that had started the previous summer on the Cape and the Reds took him in the 1st round to turn him back into a starter. The stuff was down a notch in most outings after signing, but he showed flashes of that closer stuff in some outings as a starter. As Howard gets stretched out, if that plus stuff comes back for longer stretches, he will move up this list quickly.
129. Forrest Wall, 2B, Colorado Rockies
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Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 35/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Speed: 65/65, Field: 45/50, Throw: 45/45, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Wall was one of “my guys” in the 2014 draft and I can’t believe he lasted until the 35th overall pick, with most scouts explaining it as a systematic bias against high school second basemen. Normally that would mean Wall is deficient in a tool-sense, but he only plays second base because of a shoulder surgery as an underclassman; he has legitimate mid-first round tools if he was a shortstop. The bat is above average, the power is near average, the defense is at least average and the speed is a difference maker; look for Wall to move quickly and make lots of teams feel foolish for passing.
130. Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres
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Hit: 20/40, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 20/40, Run: 40/40, Field: 60/65, Throw: 70/70, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Hedges was ready defensively for the big league last year and probably would’ve been above average, too. He has some raw power and some feel to hit, but the bat speed isn’t great and his mechanics have always been a little awkward. You don’t have to hit much these days to be an everyday catcher, especially when you’re plus defensively. Hedges knows he just needs to make a little progress with the bat to become a big league starter and he’s focusing on it now more than ever.
131. Lewis Brinson, CF, Texas Rangers
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Hit: 20/45, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 65/65, Field: 60/65, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Brinson starts a three-player run of crazy tooled-up center fielders with enormous upside. Brinson made the best defensive play I’ve ever seen when I watched him in high school and he’s still crazy elite in this area. Brinson runs and has raw power, but he’s tall and has long limbs and is very skinny, so corralling his body into a consistent swing can sometimes be a challenge. He’s slowly made progress and could be on the verge of a breakout in 2015.
132. Derek Hill, CF, Detroit Tigers
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 80/70, Field: 55/65, Throw: 50/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Hill is the son of a Dodgers scout and the Tigers took him in the first round out of a Sacramento-area high school last summer. Hill has advanced feel to hit and to defend as you’d expect from a scout’s son, with shockingly good tools to back it up. He struggled down the stretch last summer after signing, but it sounds like he was tired from a long season; Hill has the tools to shoot up this list if he puts it all together.
133. Michael Taylor, CF, Washington Nationals
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/40, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 30/45+, Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Taylor has massive tools and is near big league ready, but rates this low only because his approach has scouts doubting that he’ll get anywhere near his offensive upside. If he figures things out in 2015, it’ll likely be in the big leagues and he won’t be on this list next year. Even if he doesn’t improve much, Taylor’s plus speed and defensive skills should give him near everyday value, even if he doesn’t hit a lick or just leans back and tries to sock some dingers.
134. Tyler Beede, RHP, San Francisco Giants
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Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Beede was a hyped prospect that went in the 1st round out of high school in 2011, opting not to sign with the Blue Jays before going in the first round again in 2014 out of Vanderbilt to the Giants. Beede was maddeningly inconsistent in college, only showing flashes of his immense promise at times, but his velocity spiked into the high-90’s before the draft and his changeup still flashes plus at times, so there’s #2/3 starter upside here if a pitching coach can get through to him.
135. Luke Jackson, RHP, Texas Rangers
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Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/55, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Jackson has long been seen as a reliever that’s doing an impression of a starter in the minors, but now he’s knocking on the door of the big leagues and he may have made enough adjustments to make it work. The stuff plays up in relief for 8th or 9th inning upside, but if the command takes one more step forward, Jackson may turn into a #3/4 starter.
136. Nick Williams, LF, Texas Rangers
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Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 55/55, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 45/45, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Williams was heavily hyped as a high school underclassmen in Texas as having Jason Heyward-type tools and while Williams isn’t quite that good of a player, the tools are close to that good. Williams isn’t interested in defense and his arm is below average, so his speed doesn’t contribute much there while his plus raw power is muted in games by his aggressive early-count approach. Williams is so talented he still puts up solid numbers, but it he can make some adjustments to his offensive approach in 2015, he could shoot up this list.
137. Ian Clarkin, LHP, New York Yankees
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Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Clarkin was the third of the Yankees three first round picks in the 2013 draft and the prep lefty from San Diego has already exceeded expectations. His velocity has settled near the high end of where it was pre-draft and his above average to plus curveball is still the separator, with his changeup and command making good progress in 2014 at Low-A.
138. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, Atlanta Braves
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Fastball: 45/50+, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Sanchez had a lot of good buzz in 2014 as an advanced 17-year-old pitcher in Rookie ball and he was surprisingly traded this offseason by the Angels to the Braves. Atlanta was surprised and thrilled that Sanchez was available and his solid average stuff and feel with a knockout curveball should move quickly through the minors, with his full-season debut coming in 2015 at Low-A.
139. Hunter Dozier, 3B, Kansas City Royals
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 45/45, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Dozier was a late-rising big shortstop in the 2013 draft class from Stephen F. Austin. The Royals took him with an under-slot at 8th overall and those savings allowed them to take LHP Sean Manaea (37th on this list) with the first pick in the sandwich round. Dozier had tons of helium pre-draft and had a big debut, but struggled with contact issues in the second half of 2014 in Double-A. He’s a good athlete with easy everyday tools, so if the bat comes around in 2015, he’ll be close to a callup.
140. Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants
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Fastball: 60/70, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 35/45, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Crick has electric #2/3 starter stuff, is still only 22 and is in the upper levels of the minors, but his command has never been strong. Some guys with big stuff just take time to develop the feel and find consistency in their delivery, so the Giants will give Crick more innings to figure it out. If he has trouble developing those starter traits again this season, Crick could get a big league audition in relief and he may stick there, with real closer upside.
141. Nick Travieso, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Travieso is a husky workhorse righty that flashes a plus fastball-slider combination and could turn into a #3 starter, but the consistency of his breaking ball, changeup and command will all waver at times. There isn’t physical projection left, so most scouts hedge and call him a back-end starter, but the mentality and stuff both may end up fitting better in late relief down the road.
142. Tyler Danish, RHP, Chicago White Sox
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Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: I didn’t believe in Danish as a high schooler in the 2012 draft class because his arm action and delivery were, to be kind, unconventional. Chris Sale‘s mechanics were supposed to lead to his arm exploding, too, and that hasn’t happened, so maybe the White Sox just have a knack for finding the guys that can make this work. Danish is as competitive as they come and I think he’ll stick as a starter, but the stuff ticks up in relief, so don’t be surprised if he finds his way into the big league bullpen in late 2015 if there’s a need and a pennant race.
45+ FV Prospects (Tier of 5
As you may have noticed from the size of the last tier, numerical rankings become nearly irrelevant at this point, as there just aren’t enough clear separations for me to take a strong stance on one player over another. So, rather than continue to order players when it adds no real value, here are the 45+ FV players — or those caught in the in-between space between 45 FV and 50 FV — presented as an extended section of guys who just missed the cut. They are grouped by team, so you can find the guys in your favorite team’s farm system who may very well be strong contenders for a full write-up next year.
45+ FV Honorable Mentions Position Team
Jake Lamb 3B Arizona Diamondbacks
Yoan Lopez RHP Arizona Diamondbacks
Manny Banuelos LHP Atlanta Braves
Tyrell Jenkins RHP Atlanta Braves
Braxton Davidson RF Atlanta Braves
Christian Walker 1B Baltimore Orioles
Zach Davies RHP Baltimore Orioles
Jomar Reyes 3B Baltimore Orioles
Garin Cecchini 3B Boston Red Sox
Matt Barnes RHP Boston Red Sox
Deven Marrero SS Boston Red Sox
Michael Chavis 3B Boston Red Sox
Dan Vogelbach 1B Chicago Cubs
Billy McKinney LF Chicago Cubs
Gleyber Torres SS Chicago Cubs
Trey Michalczewski 3B Chicago White Sox
Yorman Rodriguez RF Cincinnati Reds
Aristides Aquino RF Cincinnati Reds
Amir Garrett LHP Cincinnati Reds
Tyler Anderson LHP Colorado Rockies
Steven Moya RF Detroit Tigers
Domingo Santana RF Houston Astros
Jorge Bonifacio RF Kansas City Royals
Roberto Baldoquin SS Los Angeles Angels
Chris Anderson RHP Los Angeles Dodgers
Alex Verdugo RF Los Angeles Dodgers
J.T. Realmuto C Miami Marlins
Corey Knebel RHP Milwaukee Brewers
Clint Coulter RF Milwaukee Brewers
Tyrone Taylor CF Milwaukee Brewers
Monte Harrison CF Milwaukee Brewers
Gilbert Lara 3B Milwaukee Brewers
Lewis Thorpe LHP Minnesota Twins
Rafael Montero RHP New York Mets
Dominic Smith 1B New York Mets
Rob Refsnyder 2B New York Yankees
Matt Olson 1B Oakland A’s
Renato Nunez 3B Oakland A’s
Matt Chapman 3B Oakland A’s
Zach Eflin RHP Philadelphia Phillies
Alen Hanson SS Pittsburgh Pirates
Reese McGuire C Pittsburgh Pirates
Rymer Liriano RF San Diego Padres
Christian Arroyo SS San Francisco Giants
Edwin Diaz RHP Seattle Mariners
Austin Wilson RF Seattle Mariners
Ketel Marte SS Seattle Mariners
Randal Grichuk RF St. Louis Cardinals
Magneuris Sierra CF St. Louis Cardinals
Alex Colome RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Blake Snell LHP Tampa Bay Rays
Taylor Guerrieri RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Andrew Velazquez SS Tampa Bay Rays
Brent Honeywell RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Devon Travis 2B Toronto Blue Jays
Sean Reid-Foley RHP Toronto Blue Jays
A.J. Cole RHP Washington Nationals
Wilmer Difo SS Washington Nationals
Additionally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point you towards our YouTube channel, which currently holds over 600 prospect videos, including all of the names near the top of this list. Players’ individual videos are linked in the profiles below as well.
And lastly, before we get to the list, one final reminder that a player’s placement in a specific order is less important than his placement within a Future Value tier. Numerical rankings can give a false impression of separation between players who are actually quite similar, and you shouldn’t get too worked up over the precise placement of players within each tier. The ranking provides some additional information, but players in each grouping should be seen as more or less equivalent prospects.
If you have any questions about the list, I’ll be chatting today at noon here on the site (EDIT: here’s the chat transcript), and you can find me on Twitter at @kileymcd.
Alright, that’s enough stalling. Let’s get to this.
70 FV Prospects (Tier of 2)
1. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 75/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 50/45, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 70
Scouting Report: Bryant is the top prospect in the game for me and for a majority of sources I talked to, but it isn’t by a landslide. Bryant still has some questions, and the guy right behind him could be terrifyingly good. Bryant has either 75 or 80 raw power for scouts, but the two questions about him are 1) how much contact he’ll make/how much of his power will he get to in games, and 2) if he will play third base or right field. The thing that created both of these question is the length of his 6-foot-5, 215 lb. frame, which also creates his power, so you have to take the good with the bad — and there’s plenty of good.
2. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 30/60, Raw Power: 50/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 80/80, Field: 65/70, Throw: 65/65, FV: 70
Scouting Report: Buxton was the consensus top prospect in the game last year, but had a mix of freak and regular injuries that limited him to under 200 plate appearances, including the Arizona Fall League. You can mostly throw out his mediocre-for-Buxton numbers from this year, because the tools are still there, which puts in context how good he was in 2013. He hit above league average at High-A at age 20 and it was seen as a disappointment; if he can stay healthy and perform like healthy he did, he could be a dynamic All-Star talent as soon as 2015’s stretch run, but more likely in 2016.
65 FV Prospects (Tier of 6)
3. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Russell was known to scouts early in his high school career, then he added a lot of weight in the summer before his draft year, causing most to project him as a third baseman. Russell didn’t like hearing this, so he dropped all the weight by his draft spring, losing some 65 or 70 raw power, but becoming a plus runner with a good chance to stick at shortstop. He went 11th overall to Oakland and surprised from day one with how advanced he was offensively, while continuing to improve defensively. He was dealt to the Cubs last year in the Jeff Samardzija deal and joins a glut of talented young hitters for the Cubs. The biggest remaining question for Russell is if he can still stick at shortstop due to a hitch in his release that limits how quickly he can unload the ball deep in the hole.
4. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Full Report & Video
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 60/65, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 65
Scouting Report: The Mexican-born Urias signed when he turned 16 in August 2012, as part of a package deal from his Mexican team, where he was the headline player, signing for $1.0 million (the Dodgers paid another $800,000 for the other players in the package). The Dodgers brass signed Urias after a famous trip to Mexico. They went to see his teammate C Julian Leon (a solid prospect in his own right), but the 15-year-old Urias sat 90-92 mph with a loose delivery, crisp curveball and good feel to pitch. Later on that same trip, the Dodgers also signed Yasiel Puig, making it one of the most notable scouting trips of all time. The reason Urias was still available what that he had a serious condition in his left eye (and still does–check out his official photo) after a tumor was removed, and some teams were worried about future blindness, though it doesn’t appear to be a problem now. Urias now sits in the low to mid-90’s and touches 97 mph with three plus pitches and advanced command, and he’s still just 18. He’ll start 2015 in Double-A and when he’s called up is simply a function of when the Dodgers want to start his arbitration clock, because we haven’t seen him fail yet, so we don’t even fully know his ceiling.
5. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 60/65, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 65/65, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Correa was seen as a consensus top-three pick in the 2012 draft, but only a portion of the scouting community had him as the top prospect in the draft. The Astros saw him as the best talent and also saw an opportunity to capitalize on this perception (with Buxton seen as the consensus top prospect) to cut a below-slot deal with Correa, allowing them to sign two high schoolers — 3B Rio Ruiz (#43 on this list, since traded to Atlanta in the Evan Gattis deal) and RHP Lance McCullers (#126) — to over-slot deals later in the draft. Correa has really performed since signing and hasn’t added the weight many expected to come and force a move to third base. His 2014 season ended early with a broken fibula, but he’s been back to 100 percent for over a month and is expected to be ready to head to Double-A to start the year.
6. Corey Seager, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Video
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Game Power: 40/55, Run: 45/40, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Seager is the younger brother of Mariners 3B Kyle Seager and, in the last few years, both have emerged as a couple of the best infielders in the world. Corey was identified as such earlier, as he went in the middle of the first round in 2012 out of a Charlotte-area high school, but even the Dodgers were surprised by how much and how quickly Seager excelled offensively. He hasn’t failed in any meaningful way yet, including an impressive late-season run in 2014 at Double-A at age 20. If you have to nitpick, the strikeouts are a little higher than some would like, but Seager is 6-foot-4 and that’s to be expected if a bigger guy is going to hit for some power. The Dodgers think Seager is fringy to average defensively at shortstop and will try to keep him there as long as possible, but he should slide over to third base at some point in the next year or two.
7. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
More: Full Report & Video
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 60/70, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Giolito was nationally known by scouts all the way back to when he hit 95 mph at age 15 and he dominated over the summer and winter leading up to his draft year; he was in the running to go 1-1 as one of the top prep pitchers of all-time. His draft year, however, was cut short by a sprained UCL in his elbow that led to Tommy John surgery. The stuff was all the way back this year as he dominated Low-A in his age-19 season in his first full year coming off of surgery. The Nationals were understandably conservative with pitch and innings counts in 2014, wanting to keep Giolito at the same level in a low stress environment so he wouldn’t go too deep in innings/games or be tempted to reach back for the 100 mph heater he’s thrown many times before. Giolito will start in High-A this year and the reigns will be loosened, with an expectation that he’ll get promoted to Double-A at some point in 2015, with the majors only a phone call away.
8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
More: Full Report & Video
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 60/70, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 65
Scouting Report: Rodon was a notable prospect out of high school, but had a 3rd-4th round grade from most teams, as the fastball sat around 90, there was no projection and some teams had him off the board due to a back issue. His velocity spiked soon after he got to campus at NC State and he was sitting 92-95 mph and flashing a plus-plus slider en route to a dominating freshman season that began hype that Rodon would go #1 overall in 2014. He hit some bumps along the way and only showed flashes of his ultra premium stuff in his draft year, but it all came back after signing, due in part to his overuse in college and his reliance on his knockout slider. He’ll likely start in Triple-A, and should be up at some point this year. He has frontline starter potential, but he’s also shown flashes of a more ordinary pitcher in recent years.
60 FV Prospects (Tier of 20)
9. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 30/50, Run: 45/45+, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Swihart was seen as an amateur as an offense-first catcher that probably would have to move to a corner position once he got to the upper levels of the minors when Boston took him 26th overall out of a New Mexico high school. He’s made a lot a strides defensively since then, now projecting as s solid average defender with a plus arm and above average athleticism. Swihart’s bat is still advanced and he’s developed more game power in the past few years, with scouts expecting about 15-18 homers at maturity, with an MLB look likely coming at some point in 2015.
10. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 60
Scouting Report: J.P. Crawford is a cousin of Carl Crawford, but you don’t need to know his bloodlines to to know he’s a premium athlete. He is a plus runner with smooth hands, good range and an above average arm, giving him a very good chance to stick at shortstop long-term. Scouts are pleasantly surprised by how well Crawford has hit since turning pro and he’s now on the fast track. He turns 20 soon and will get a taste of Double-A next year, possibly to start the year, with a 2016 big league cup of coffee in range if he keeps progressing.
11. Joc Pederson, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 45/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Pederson signed for $600,000 in the 11th round of the 2010 draft from a Northern California high school; he wasn’t a consensus prospect and wasn’t seen as having much upside, but flashed average tools and good feel for the game. Something clicked in 2012 and the Dodgers sent him straight to High-A as a 20-year-old, where he became a top 100 type prospect. He raked again in Double-A in 2013, then again in 2014 in Triple-A, with only the Dodgers outfield surplus keeping him on the farm so long. Pederson has average to above average tools across the board, with only his raw power showing plus, though that’s with effort in batting practice. He can play a solid center field for now, but likely settles as a right fielder when he matures. His offensive projection will come down to what kind of hitter he wants to be–the 55 future hit/power tools is a little conservative and converts to .270s and 20 homers–but his controlled aggressive approach should lead to high OBPs either way.
12. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
More: Video
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Glasnow was drafted in the 5th round out of high school in 2011 as a low-profile pure projection bet with fringy to average stuff and a limited track record. He blew up in 2013, dominating Low-A with a fastball that hit 97 mph. He continued his progress at High-A in 2014, sitting 93-96 mph and hitting 98 mph, with a plus curveball and improving changeup. Glasnow’s long limbs create some command challenges, but his walks were more a function of deep counts due to swing-and-miss stuff than trouble throwing strikes. He’ll head to Double-A for 2015 and likely won’t get a big league look until 2016, but there’s #2 starter upside, with less risk each the day.
13. Jorge Soler, RF, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 50/60, Game Power: 55/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Run: 50/45, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Soler is a fun player to watch. He’s an explosive quick-twitch power hitter with easy plus bat speed and raw power, along with just enough huge cuts and erratic stuff to his game that you never know what you might see. The erratic aspects of his game slowly melted away this year as he matured mentally and had his first full year of reps in the system with a clean bill of health. He was great in a big league audition in 2014 and is the classic power right field profile, with some comparing Soler at the plate to Yasiel Puig.
14. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
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Hit: 40/60, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 30/40, Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Lindor had lots of late helium before the 2011 draft, with some talk he could go in the top three, but the Indians happily scooped him up with the 8th pick. He’s met or exceeded expectation since then, with plenty of contact, speed and defense to comfortably project as an everyday player with a likely 2015 big league look. The only real questions are how much power there will be and if the bat is truly impact level, but Elvis Andrus has shown that there’s still a way to get get plenty rich even without an impact-level bat.
15. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/50, Raw Power: 80/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 45/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Sano missed all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery but was fully ready to play this winter. He had a very high profile July 2nd signing process, complete with a controversial documentary, accusations of falsifying his age, bone scans and a surprise late entrant scooping up the player. Sano was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent with 80 raw power and the ability to stay in the infield to go with an advanced feel for hitting. That’s all still true, but Sano has added a lot of strength — he’s at least 6-foot-4, 240 lbs. now and likely will get even bigger. As such, most scouts now assume he’ll end up at first base in a few years. He’ll head to Double-A or Triple-A to start 2015 and should get a big league look late in the season if he proves everything is fully back.
16. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 60/70, Raw Power: 80/80, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 70/70, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Gallo became famous to mainstream baseball fans for his power display during the 2014 Futures Game, where he showed off legit top-of-the-scale 80 raw power. Scouts I talked to say what they see day-to-day from Gallo in batting practive is more of a 70, which is more in line with what they think he could produce in the big leagues (70 game power translates to 30-35 homers annually) since there are still some questions about his contact ability. That said, Gallo raked this year at age 20 in Double-A and has never had trouble putting up gaudy numbers, so it’s hard to say he won’t hit enough to be a solid everyday player of some kind. He’s fringy at third base but also has enormous arm strength and scouts think he’ll figure out a way to stick over there, though Adrian Beltre may force him to right field as long as he’s in Arlington.
17. Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+,Command: 45/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Norris was a well-known prospect coming out of a Tennessee high school, both for his above-average stuff dating back to his sophomore year, as well as his troublesome delivery. He slipped to the second round in 2011, but the Jays scooped him up at the 74th overall pick with a $2 million bonus. The Jays development staff a couple years to clean everything up and unlock Norris’ athleticism, but he shot from High-A to the big leagues in 2014 alongside CF Dalton Pompey (#80 on this list). Norris runs his fastball up to 96 mph with above average to plus off-speed pitches and good feel to pitch; there’s #2/3 starter upside and he likely won’t spend much more time in the minors.
18. Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Appel was a polarizing figure in the 2012 draft, when he went 8th overall and didn’t sign with the Pirates, turning down a $3.8 million offer. Scouts liked the size and stuff but thought Appel wasn’t quite athletic enough to make his delivery work and lacked the aggressiveness and killer instinct to be a frontline arm. Appel answered these questions in 2013, with an improved approach and the Astros took the Houston native #1 overall. He had some trouble in 2014 with his velocity disappearing then coming back, and he still isn’t all the way back to his peak form as a senior at Stanford. The pitch grades above are a notch higher than what he consistently showed last year, but there’s no physical reason to think he can’t regain that form and become a #2 starter.
19. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
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Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Syndergaard was just starting to grow into his 6-foot-6, 240 lb. frame when the Blue Jays took him in the 2010 sandwich round as a late pop-up arm off many teams’ radars, due to a velocity spike before the draft. He has shot through the minors, reaching Triple-A by 21 while growing a few inches, putting on lots of strength, developing his command and having his stuff explode. He was dealt in a package with Travis d’Arnaud from Toronto in the R.A. Dickey trade in December of 2012. He now sits 93-97 with heavy life and hits 98 mph with a curveball that is mostly above average, but still varies outing to outing. Syndergaard also has been more open to using his changeup than Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler at the same stage, with the pitch flashing above average pretty consistently already. Syndergaard’s weakness is a lack of a consistent plus secondary pitch, but he does everything well and will get a big league look in 2015 with a good chance to reach his mid-rotation potential.
20. Alex Jackson, RF, Seattle Mariners
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Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 45/45, Field: 45/50, Throw: 60/60, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Jackson was known as a sophomore in high school as he showed and advanced feel to hit, big raw power and a huge arm behind the plate. He held that lofty perch until his draft year, as a legitimate contender to go #1 overall, but ultimately slipped to the Mariners at 6th overall. Jackson has easy plus raw power and arm strength, but the separator here is his advanced feel to hit to all fields and get to his power in games. Like Wil Myers and Bryce Harper before him and Kyle Schwarber (#21 on this list) from his draft class, Jackson’s bat is too advanced to wait on his glove to develop behind the plate, so the Mariners will just stick him in right field and let him hit his way to the big leagues.
21. Kyle Schwarber, LF, Chicago Cubs
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Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 70/70, Game Power: 40/60, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 50/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: When I first saw Schwarber last summer on a loaded college Team USA, I thought the middle linebacker-looking dude wasn’t a good bet to stick at catcher, but he was surprisingly nimble for his size with enough ability to at least consider it. I wrote that he was good enough back there to allow him to play there in the minors and develop him as a potential backup that plays once or twice a week but is a primary at left field or first base. The Cubs took him #4 overall out of Indiana and agree with my defensive suggestion; they’ll develop him as a catcher this year, but most assume his bat will be ready before his glove, meaning he’ll be a part-time catcher at best. There’s legit 30 homer power and surprising feel to hit with a realistic chance for a big league look in late 2016.
22. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
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Fastball: 55/65, Curveball: 55/60, Cutter: 60/70, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Bundy was a known prospect as a sophomore in high school, if not earlier, and the Orioles knew about him early; they signed his older brother Bobby in 2008 before drafting Dylan in 2011. It’s expected his borderline insane usage in high school is what led to his June 2013 Tommy John surgery after soreness in March of that year. The linked video is pre-surgery when Bundy-mania was at it’s height: he sat 95-99 mph with an 80 cutter, plus curveball and solid average changeup. In 41.1 innings last year at the A-Ball levels, Bundy was mostly 90-93, hitting 94 mph with the command and curveball not close to what they once were. Later in the summer, he hit 96 mph and the curve and command were getting there, but he was shut down with an oblique problem, unrelated to his arm. He is expected to have stuff close to his peak this year, but you can see from the above grades I’ve hedged a bit until we actually see it. This year is his last option, so he has to stick on the big league roster in 2016 or be exposed to waivers, which he would not clear.
23. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Boston Red Sox
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Rodriguez was acquired from the Orioles at the trade deadline for lefty reliever Andrew Miller, with lots of rumors suggested they chose Rodriguez over a multi-player offer from Detroit headlined by #29 on this list, RHP Jake Thompson. Rodriguez went from a solid lefty prospect that projected as a #4 type starter to a potential frontline guy a couple weeks before the trade when his velocity ticked up to sitting 93-96 mph, which also sharpened his slider. The question is if this new stuff is here to stay, but even if it isn’t, Rodriguez could be a league average or better starter by 2016.
24. Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
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Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Berrios may not be big at 6-foot-0/190 pounds, but scouts rave about his athleticism, makeup and work ethic. His velocity has slowly improved since high school in Puerto Rico and now sits at 93-96, hitting 98 mph. There isn’t a ton of plane or life to the pitch, but his clean arm action and deceptively easy delivery helps the heater sneak up on hitters. Berrios calls his breaking pitches a slow and fast curveball, but the fast one plays like a slider and both are above average; scouts will call one or the other plus depending on the day, but the slower curve gets the better grade more often. His changeup is above average and may be plus one day, helping to keep hitters off his fastball. One scout compared him to Javier Vazquez and he should get a big league look at some point in 2015.
25. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
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Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Stephenson surprisingly slipped to the end of the 1st round out of high school and has done what most scouts thought he would, turning a crazy loose arm into premium stuff in short order. This year was a struggle for Stephenson as he hadn’t really failed before, but at age-21 as more of a thrower than pitcher in Double-A, even plus stuff and a heater that hits 100 mph wouldn’t allow him to carve hitters up as he was accustomed. Stephenson will need to make that adjustment next season, but there are more than enough ingredients here for a mid-rotation starter, with a decent chance for even more. One scout compared Stephenson’s developmental path and possible eventual outcome to Homer Bailey. The command isn’t really the issue, so much as it is usage of his pitches, getting into good counts and challenging hitters in the right way, not always with a flat upper-90?s fastball up in the zone.
26. Luis Severino, RHP, New York Yankees
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Fastball: 65/70, Slider: 40/50+, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Severino wasn’t a high profile signing, but stood out to me in instructs the fall after his 2012 stint in the Dominican Summer League. He sat 92-94 mph in both outings I saw and threw a solid average slider, but didn’t work in a changeup and his delivery/command needed work. Severino was mostly 91-95 mph in 2013 and early in 2014, then got stronger as the year went on, flashing 94-97 mph heat at times later in the year and sustaining it for innings. Severino took quickly to using a changeup regularly after arriving in America, developing it as a plus pitch in about a year of using it, though it can sometimes play to 55 on certain days, as he’s still developing consistent control of his off-speed offerings. His slider is still a third pitch, but it flashes 55 at times. He’s quickly improved and developed starter traits, but on certain days the stuff, command and delivery may all look more like a reliever.
27. Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Texas Rangers
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Gonzalez went from a 3rd-4th round prospect entering his draft year at Oral Roberts to a legit 1st rounder by mid-season, with some buzz he could sneak into the top 10 on a discounted deal; he went 23rd. His heavy sinker has led to solid performances in the minors thus far, and his stuff has ticked up a notch this season. Gonzalez now sits 92-95, hitting 97 mph often and can spot and manipulate the pitch to sink, run or cut it at 94 mph deep into starts. His plus mid-80’s slider is still the primary weapon and his changeup and fourth option curveball both flash average to slightly above at times. Gonzalez’s command isn’t bad and should be average as well, giving Gonzalez #3 starter upside, but scouts complain that with his firm changeup, almost every pitch he throws is over 85 mph and often in the strike zone.
28. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 60
Scouting Report: Gray created tons of buzz midway through the 2013 spring with Oklahoma, coming from out of nowhere to hit 100 mph often, with a plus slider and usable changeup. He was in the mix for the #1 overall pick but ended up going 3rd overall to Colorado. Since signing, Gray’s velocity has been down some, mostly sitting 91-94 and hitting 95 mph, but Rockies sources say this is intentional and he’s working on some things (they already smoothed out his delivery), which scouts assumed after Gray hit 98 mph in a short Texas League All-Star Game appearance. I think he’ll settle at 92-94 with more movement and command, with the slider still plus and the changeup having it’s moments. Scouts are a little concerned that Gray is a below average athlete and the command still isn’t quite there yet, but it’s hard to walk away from this stuff.
55 FV Prospects (Tier of 51)
29. Jake Thompson, RHP, Texas Rangers
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Fastball: 60/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Thompson slipped to the 2nd round out of high school because his stuff was mostly average, but would tick up at times. That was the book on him earlier this year at High-A Lakeland for Detroit, when he’d start games at 90-92, hitting 93-95 at times and then dip to 88-91 later in the game with a solid average three-pitch mix. In the Florida State League All-Star Game, Thompson sat 93-96 in a one-inning appearance and his slider was at least a 60, though it was a higher effort delivery he didn’t use when starting. Thompson was dealt to the Rangers mid-season in the Joakim Soria trade and scouts that saw him in the Texas League reported he was 92-96 mph with a 60 slider that is sometimes a 70 in short stints. There’s an average change and impact stuff as a starter, but there’s also some effort to the delivery, so the fit may be in the bullpen; he’ll head to Double-A and could be a bullpen option if needed late in the year.
30. Austin Meadows, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 60/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 45/45, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Meadows was compared to his friend and fellow 2013 draft Atlanta-area prep hitter Clint Frazier often; scouts were still split over which one they preferred at draft time. After a full season, but Meadows has the clear edge, but it’s still very early. Meadows missed a lot of the season with a hamstring injury, but showed the sweet lefty swing and above average tools that got him drafted 9th overall. Meadows is a big, football-strong type athlete at 6-foot-3/200 and appears to have already lost a step from high school, usually running in the 55 range, with most assuming he’ll settle closer to an average runner. Since his arm is below average, this would shift him to left field and put more pressure on his bat, which is advanced, but he’s still learning to integrate his raw power into his game swing. Jay Bruce is a comparison that’s come up often for Meadows and power-hitting corner outfield may be where this ends up in a few years.
31. David Dahl, CF, Colorado Rockies
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Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Dahl’s stock dipped in 2012 and 2013 after going 10th overall out of an Alabama high school due to some maturity issues that caused the Rockies to issue a suspension and limit his exposure to full-season ball until this season. This year, Dahl cruised through Low-A as expected and he may now be on the fast track. Scouts never really doubted Dahl’s ability to hit and one said he almost put a 70 on his bat after seeing him this year; that same scout put a 50 on the future game power despite a line drive approach in games. It may take a few years but advanced, talented hitters with a natural opposite field stroke will often will outhit their raw power at maturity (even with a line drive approach) due to how much hard contact they make. The offensive upside combined with plus speed and a center field profile give Dahl the upside to be a star, but some scouts would like to see more than one year in full-season leagues before they go all-in.
32. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/65, Cutter: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Bradley went from premium quarterback/pitching prospect in high school at age 17 to legitimately in play for the #1 overall pick at age 18 to top prospect immediately after signing, to possibly being in the big league rotation at age 21. In retrospect, some scouts think he was pressing in 2014 Spring Training, trying to do too much to impress the big league staff to break camp with the big league club. Bradley went back to Triple-A and by late April, he was on the shelf with an elbow strain. He returned from the DL in Double-A, starting 12 games and heading to the Arizona Fall League, but not quite looking like the same potential frontline starter from previous years. Bradley added a cutter in the AFL that flashed plus, though his changeup and curveball were a notch lower than the grades above and there’s still concerns that he doesn’t have enough feel to stick as a starter, though he should get a big league look in 2015.
33. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox
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Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Owens was a projection lefty starter out of high school with advanced feel to pitch and a good changeup; he’s continued to improve and still has plenty of projection to go. Owens sits 90-92 with good deception, extension, command and movement, hitting as high as 95 mph at times. His curveball is solid-average and his plus changeup also draws grades as high as 70 from some scouts. Owens is still a long, lanky type arm that sometimes has trouble corralling his limbs to repeat his delivery and should also throw a tick or two harder down the line. The stuff doesn’t blow you away, but Owens know how to use it and he should get a big league look in 2015.
34. Ozhaino Albies, SS, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 30/40, Game Power: 20/35, Run: 65/65, Field: 50/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Albies home country Curacao has produced a great recent group of quick-twitch infielders with Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Schoop and Jurickson Profar, while nearby Aruba has recently produced Xander Bogaerts. Albies is next in line, with some scouts comparing him to a smaller Francisco Lindor or Rafael Furcal with less arm strength. He’s 5-foot-9/150, just turned 18 and has only played one year of short-season ball, but scouts are already tossing 60’s on his hit tool, along with 60 or more on his speed, glove and arm. Feel free to scroll around this list and try to find another example of these kinds of tools; that and universally positive reports are why I’m so bullish on this kid. Power isn’t a big part of game and likely will never be, but he does everything else so well at such a young age, that no one seems to care. He has excellent feel for the strike zone and the bat head, plenty of bat speed, knowledge of when to use his gap power and when to keep the ball on the ground; his full-season debut in 2015 is arguably the most anticipated in baseball.
35. Manuel Margot, CF, Boston Red Sox
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 65/65, Field: 60/65, Throw: 50/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Margot was another recent, premium July 2nd signee for the Red Sox that has gone swimmingly so far, along with Devers below. Margot has game-changing easy plus speed and defense to go with surprising raw power for his size and an advanced bat. Margot has above average bat speed and bat control to go with a simple, line-drive, gap-to-gap approach that takes advantage of his speed with lots of doubles and triples. Margot wore down a bit down the stretch this year and his raw power and arm strength were a tick lower for some scouts, but his performance speaks for itself and he may get a taste of Double-A in 2015 at age 20.
36. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
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Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Harvey is the son of former big league reliever Bryan Harvey and wasn’t well known until his draft spring as he opted to play Legion ball instead of hitting the showcase circuit. He went from sitting around 90 with a skinny, lanky frame to hitting the mid-to-upper-90?s in his draft spring, attracting first round attention. Harvey’s 90-93 mph fastball that had hit 96 mph in high school was suddenly sitting 93-97 mph in the summer after he signed, when most prep pitchers are battling sore arms. Expectation adjusted upward and Harvey delivered this year in his full-season debut, with ground balls and strikeouts in bunches. Some elbow soreness sent him to the DL in July and Baltimore shut him down as he’d already reached his innings limit for the season. Scouts are a little wary of a young pitcher with limited innings getting shut down with elbow soreness, so they’d like to see him throw a couple solid starts before totally buying back in, but there’s frontline potential here.
37. Sean Manaea, LHP, Kansas City Royals
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Manaea was a largely unknown power lefty with little else to offer as a sophomore at Indiana State, then he blew up that summer on the Cape, sitting 91-95 and hitting 97 mph with life and deception. He was a projected top 5 pick before a terrible spring, caused by bad weather, inconsistent mechanics and bothersome arm soreness to go with a more serious hip injury. The Royals took the late-rising Hunter Dozier with their top pick, signing him to an underslot deal to save money so they could take Manaea, hoping he’d last to their pick at 34 due to his injuries and price tag, which he did. Kansas City signed Manaea for $3.55 million (over a million more than Dozier) and he sat out the rest of the 2013 season, making his pro debut in 2014 at High at age 22. Manaea was back to his old self in carving up the league and is flashing the #2/3 starter upside of his breakout Cape campaign.
38. Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
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Hit: 40/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 50/60, Run: 30/30, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Franco’s breakout was in 2013, between High-A and Double-A, when he went from a high contact hitter with some raw power to a monster hitting over .300 with 30 homers between two levels. Franco is limited physically by his slow feet and will never be more than fringy at third base, but has the plus arm and good hands to figure out a way to make it work over there. The ultimate fit is likely first base, but that’s years away and he’ll get an extended big league look in 2015, with his aggressive offensive approach the big remaining question to answer.
39. Jesse Winker, LF, Cincinnati Reds
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Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 45/40, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Winker was a very well-known prospect out of high school, playing on arguably the best travel team in the country and playing on a loaded Orlando-area high school team that included first rounders Walker Weickel and Nick Gordon. Winker has progressed well in pro ball, with some scouts suggesting he may have gotten a tick faster since signing, but the carrying tool here is the bat and it has really shined so far. While the raw power isn’t huge, he should be able to produce 20 bombs at maturity and Winker’s feel to hit is very advanced as his feel for the strike zone. Some scout suggest first base will be his eventual home, but also mention names like Paul O’Neill, John Olerud and Tino Martinez as potential comps.
40. Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets
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Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 30/45, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 50/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Plawecki doesn’t have huge tools and didn’t come from a baseball hotbed, playing high school in Indiana and college at Purdue, but he has lots of feel for the game to make the most of what he does have. This feel was evident as early as college, which got Plawecki taken 35th overall by the Mets, but his defense and contact abilities have held up more in pro ball than rival scouts expected. Plawecki is an offensive catcher, with hit over power due to his contact leaning with a short load, direct path and simple approach. Scouts hang 55 or 60 grades on his bat and he shot through the system in part because he doesn’t strike out and does a good job making adjustments level-to-level. He doesn’t have a big arm, but it’s enough to catch with a good shot for a big league look in 2015, alongside Travis d’Arnaud.
41. Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/45+, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: To pitch at the Padres pre-draft workout in San Diego in 2011, Wisler flew to the west coast from Ohio and pitched the day after he threw in a high school playoff game, hitting 91 mph at PETCO Park. He’s shown the intangibles from day one, but came to camp in 2013 looking like a completely different pitcher. Wisler now works 91-94, touching 95 mph with sink and commands the pitch to both sides of the plate. His two-plane slider is plus, his changeup is above average at times and he also works in a fringy curveball. Scouts rave about his makeup and strike throwing abilities, though his command isn’t quite big league ready, as he ran into trouble in the hitter-friendly PCL leaving the ball up the zone. Some scouts think his build is too slight and that he won’t be able to hold up for 200 innings, with a couple suggesting he may end up as a late-inning reliever. The consensus is that he should be able to handle 180 innings as a third or fourth starter and he’ll get a big league look in 2015, though the Padres new starting pitching depth may delay that until late in the season.
42. Eddie Butler, RHP, Colorado Rockies
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Butler’s stuff took a step forward since being drafted in the sandwich round in 2012 out of Radford, with his velocity settling a tick or two higher (93-95, touching 97 mph consistently) and his off-speed stuff jumping a notch as well. The big question scouts have about Butler is his durability. He’s had a lot of minor dings and there’s doubt he can hold up for 200 innings, though everything else is there for him to be a starter. If he has to move to the bullpen he could be a closer, with a fastball that’s been up to 99 mph and a knockout changeup, but Colorado will give him every chance to prove he can stay in the rotation. The slider has been a 55 in the past but scouts have said it’s only been average this year.
43. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Ruiz signed with the Astros for an over slot $1.85 million with the money they saved going under slot on SS Carlos Correa as the #1 overall pick in 2012. Ruiz slipped to the 4th round after being in the top 50 pick discussion early in the spring, due to a blood clot in his neck that prematurely ended his season. He was also a standout quarterback in high school, which shows with his above average arm strength, but the 6-foot-2/215 lefty hitter isn’t a traditionally great athlete. He was acquired earlier this month by Atlanta in the Evan Gattis deal. Ruiz is a below average runner with fringy range that limits his defensive upside, though it looks right now like he’ll be able to stay at the hot corner, with the above average raw power to profile. The carrying tool is the bat and Ruiz took a step forward in 2014, but some scouts would like to see him do it outside of the Cal League before throwing a 60 on his hit tool. With a solid year for Atlanta in Double-A in 2015, he’ll be on the fast track for a big league look and is already their third baseman of the future.
44. Jose Peraza, 2B, Atlanta Braves
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Hit: 30/50, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 20/35, Run: 70/70, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 50/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Peraza is a plus-plus runner with game-changing speed and he knows how to use it on the bases, stealing 60 and 64 bases in his last two seasons. He started as a shortstop, was converted to second base full-time in 2014 and handled it well; his average arm isn’t enough for that throw in the hole from shortstop, but he’s good enough for emergency duty at short. Peraza doesn’t have much power, but it isn’t a big part of his game, likely hitting 5-12 homers depending on how he matures as a hitter. He doesn’t see many pitches and aggressively attack the first hittable pitch he sees, using his speed by keeping the ball on the ground and leading to low walk and strikeout rates, but that could cause problems against top big league arms. He’ll start 2015 in Triple-A after short stops in Double-A and High-A last year, and a good chance he’s entrenched in the big league lineup at some point in 2016.
45. Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox
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Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 65/65, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Anderson was almost completely unknown entering his draft year, as he went undrafted in 2012 at the same junior college where he went in the 1st round in 2013. He came out late in spring 2012 after basketball season ended and was often hidden in left field, so it wasn’t easy for scouts to pick up on the raw tools at a rural junior college game with their pref lists mostly set. Anderson is the loose athlete every scout is looking for, with easy plus speed, a plus arm and, despite some issues he’s working on with fundamentals and footwork, he has the tools to stick at shortstop. He has plus bat speed, above average bat control and surprising pop, flashing average raw power. Anderson’s feel to hit can sometimes get in his way: he isn’t as patient at the plate as he should be, with his ability to square up most pitches he’s facing now holding back his long-term interests. That said, he’s still hasn’t played much high level baseball, he’s already in Double-A at age 21 and the talent is ridiculous.
46. Nomar Mazara, RF, Texas Rangers
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Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 50/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Mazara’s all-time record-smashing $4.95 million bonus in the last year before international bonus pools opened some eyes, both for the amount and the player. Some pointed to a hitchy swing with timing issues and that was still a concern after last year’s just okay full-season debut at age 18, where Mazara hit .236 with 131 Ks in Low-A. This year, the 19-year-old Mazara made the necessary adjustments, getting his foot down faster which unlocked his bat speed and strength while giving him more time to make a decision on the pitch. He jumped all the way to Double-A, where he’ll start this year and it now on the fast track with a classic power/power right field profile.
47. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 55/65, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Shipley started pitching as a sophomore at Nevada, then went in the middle of the 1st round after his junior year, highlighting how quickly he went from advanced athlete without a position to premium pitching prospect. He’s a ridiculous athlete that scouts tend to believe can do anything in part because of how quickly he’s taken to pitching. Shipley flashed three plus pitches after signing, especially notable because his curveball was rarely used in college and was the reason he lasted all the way to the 15th pick. At his best, Shipley sits 92-95 and touches 98 mph, though his fastball has average at best movement and tends to straighten out late in starts when he’s fatigued. His curveball flashes plus and his changeup is a 65 pitch for some scouts. Shipley’s command still comes and goes, but he’s such a good athlete that scouts assume that will come around to average. He’s still working to get his arm conditioned to last late into games and Shipley’s stuff would, at times, play down a notch or two this season from the peak stuff noted in the future pitch grades above. He’ll spend 2015 in the upper minors and should get a real big league chance in 2016.
48. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Devers has an unusual frame for a top July 2nd prospect, as that market is all about potential and, typically, the most projectable, long, lean frames. Devers stood out from a young age due to his advanced approach, precocious raw power and loose, handsy, all-fields left-handed swing. He’s dropped some bad weight since his amateur days and is still adding some strength and maturing. I often talk about how scouts and analysts agree that opposite field game power at a young age is one of the best indicators of a prospect that has a good chance to become an elite big league bat; Devers has all the makings.
49. Hunter Renfroe, RF, San Diego Padres
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Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 30/60, Run: 55/55, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Renfroe had a Paul Bunyan type backstory but came from relative obscurity with limited playing time as an underclassman at Mississippi State; he was a catcher, with pop times in the 1.7s, or easily plus plus, but little feel to catch and he was also an arm strength reliever that sat 93-96 and hit 98 mph, but with little command. He broke out in the summer after his sophomore year in the largely unscouted Cal Ripken League, then demolished the SEC as a junior en route to going in the middle of the first round. He has easy plus raw power and one Padres official compared his quick-twitch, late-blooming plus bat speed/plus power profile to Nelson Cruz. One big difference is that Renfroe will turn in plus run times to first base on close plays, to go with his plus arm in right field; he occasionally plays center field in the minors and can fill in there if needed in the majors. Some scouts think he’s too aggressive at the plate and see shades of Jeff Francoeur, but I think there’s a solid everyday player here with a chance for a star.
50. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
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Fastball: 55/55, Slider: 55/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Heaney was heralded in his draft year out of Oklahoma State as an advanced pitchability lefty with above average stuff that could turn into a #3/4 starter in short order and that’s almost exactly what’s happened. He already got a big league look in 2014 with Miami before being traded to the Dodgers in the Dee Gordon trade, then flipped to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. His fastball and slider will both flash 60 in his best outings, but Heaney relies more on his feel to pitch than his raw stuff to get strikeouts and grounders. He should be up at some point in 2015 depending on the big league need.
51. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Nola was a smaller righty that threw 85-88 mph from a low slot with some feel in high school, then he exploded onto the scene at LSU, throwing 91-94 mph as a sophomore and hitting 96 mph pretty often in his draft year. Nola creates above average life on his fastball and changeup with the spin he puts on the ball from the low slot. One of the concerns is that his low 3/4 slinging slot allows left-handed hitters seeing the ball too clearly, but Nola’s plus changeup does the heavy lifting here; his above average command and aggressive approach also help keep hitters off balance. He’s never been hurt before despite an unusual delivery and while his stuff was a tick worse after signing, that’s expected with pitchers throwing the longest year of their young careers. Nola will head to Double-A for 2015 and should get a big league look at some point if he has a strong season.
52. Steven Souza, RF, Tampa Bay Rays
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Hit: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: It would seem easy to like a guy with everyday tools that also really performs. Some scouts are all-in on Souza, but most are at least a little dubious that he’ll be able to keep it up in the majors, due to his approach, size and career path. After a slow start to his career as a 3rd round pick in 2007 out of high school (which included a drug suspension in 2010), Souza started crushing everything he faced in 2012 at age-23 in High-A. He followed that with huge years in 2013 at age-24 in Double-A and in 2014 at age-25 in Triple-A. All three of those seasons are two years old for the target age for a prospect to be at each level, so some scouts don’t even totally buy into the performance. Souza is a late bloomer, but he was also the key to the Wil Myers trade for Tampa Bay and he’ll likely be an Opening Day Starter that may post a couple WAR in 2015 and also may outperform Myers right after the deal. These things are all on the table now, but seemed completely absurd to consider a year or two ago, giving you a sense of how much Souza’s stock has risen in that time.
53. Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers
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Hit: 20/45, Game Power: 45/55, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 45/45+, Field: 40/50+, Throw: 70/70, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Alfaro’s easy plus raw power may never fully play at the big league level, but since he can stick behind the plate, it won’t have to. Alfaro has the tools to be an above average defender and his plus-plus arm is a huge weapon, but he still needs some work on the finer points of catching, as his arm strength allows him to get away with stuff in the minors that he won’t be able to do in the majors. Like catchers below like O’Conner, Betancourt and Hedges, Alfaro has some trouble with his approach and reaching his offensive upside, but his raw tools are the best of that bunch and he’ll head to Double-A to start 2015 as Texas’ catcher of the future.
54. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
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Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Newcomb was the Hunter Dozier of the 2014 draft, a player that clubs liked higher than the media consensus had them, partly because teams weren’t sure if they were the only team that had him so high, so they kept it secret. Sources have indicated that the Mariners probably would’ve taken Newcomb at the 6th pick if Alex Jackson wasn’t there and there were a couple more spots where he was the backup choice before the Angels stopped the slide at 15th overall. The things scouts like so much about Newcomb are easy to see: he’s huge (6-foot-5/240), athletic, left-handed, has a fresh arm (New England multi-sport kid), flashed three plus pitches (sits 91-94, hits 97 mph) and shows surprising pitchability considering his background. His off-speed stuff plays more to a 55 on a consistent basis, but the raw elements are here for an ace if Newcomb can make all the necessary adjustments and stay healthy.
55. D.J. Peterson, 1B, Seattle Mariners
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Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 40/60, Run: 45/40, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Peterson emerged in his draft year at New Meciso as a guy that scouts saw both advanced hit-ability and raw power, with some comparing him to Billy Butler and Jeff Bagwell for an unexpectedly loose swing in a stout frame. Peterson plays third base now and has the hands and arms to hang around there for awhile, but every scout I’ve talked to sees him moving over to first base at some point in the next few years. He’ll be 23 next year and should perform in Double-A and/or Triple-A, setting the stage for a late-season 2015 big league look with a chance to stick in 2016 as a middle of the order masher.
56. Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Kansas City Royals
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Finnegan was one of the tougher evaluations in this past June’s draft class. The TCU ace appeared to be an anomaly: He had a high effort delivery from a small frame (5-foot-11/185) but he also had advanced command and no injury history. Finnegan was up to 98 mph last summer and regularly up to 96 mph this spring, drawing Scott Kazmir and Billy Wagner comparisons from scouts. Then, he missed multiple starts down the stretch with a stiff shoulder that threw the whole evaluation into question. Finnegan looked fine in abbreviated looks before the draft and went 17th overall to the Royals, whereas he had top 10 rumors around him before the shoulder tightness. It’s still not clear if he’s a mid-rotation starter or closer long-term, but we saw in September that his stuff will play wherever you put it.
57. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington Nationals
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Fastball: 65/75, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Lopez signed with no fanfare, getting a $17,000 bonus at age 18 near the end of the 2012 signing period. He sat in the upper 80?s at the time, then his velo steadily climbed a tick each month until he hit the mid-90?s in 2013. He only pitched a handful of innings in 2013 due to a sore arm, which is somewhat expected for a teenager whose climbing velocity is putting new stresses on his arm. Lopez got back on the mound in 2014 and took off, sitting 93-97 and hitting 100 mph on many occasions. He adds and subtracts from his fastball, showing surprising feel for a young power arm and his changeup and command both flash average to slightly above potential because of his advanced body control and feel for his delivery. This new velo was the result of the player development staff helping Lopez tweak his delivery before 2014, making him more direct to the plate and more downhill to leverage the ball better and cut out the east/west movement in his delivery. With the newness of his big stuff, we still don’t know what Lopez’s upside is, so his 2015 will be watched closely by teams hoping the Nats make him available in trade talks.
58. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 70/70, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 50/45, Field: 50/50, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Judge generated a lot of buzz after a summer on the Cape when the 6-foot-7/250 athletic monster showed huge power, but inconsistent game performances. That continued in the spring at Fresno State, when he only tapped into his plus plus raw power at times, often option to shorten up and hit singles or struggling versus advanced pitchers, which is why he slid to the end of the first round. Multiple clubs I talked to didn’t have him anywhere close to the first round and some area scouts turned him in as a middle round pick. He blew away those expectations in his pro debut this year, hitting 21 homers and making plenty of contact. He’ll be 23 in Double-A next year and that will give us a better idea of if he’s a solid everyday guy or a potential star, but there’s clearly more here than people were expecting.
59. Aaron Blair, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Blair has slowly improved since being drafted last June that some in the organization have him as the #1 prospect in the system. He isn’t as flashy as Bradley and Shipley, but Blair has three pitches that all have been plus at times for scouts and are all regularly above average. One scout compared Blair’s ability to get heavy life on pitches to Roy Halladay, in part due to how big Blair’s hands are, while another scout compared him to John Lackey or Lance Lynn, a big and unspectacular but steady #3/4 starter that outperforms more heralded talents. Blair sits 90-94 and has been up to 96 mph with improved arm speed this season. He throws a lot of strikes and the heavy life on his fastball helps induce weak contact rather than a ton of strikeouts. Blair’s curveball was the concern as an amateur and early in his pro career, but now consistently shows average with some grading it as high as plus at times, while hi changeup has been above average all along. He’ll likely get a big league look at some point in 2015.
60. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 45/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Rosario got the biggest international bonus in club history two years ago and has done nothing but impress since then. Scouts have called him special and the most athletic player in the Mets system. He has the live body, quick hands, instincts and ability to adjust to challenges along with the broad shoulders to project more strength to come. Rosario skipped the DSL and adjusted as older competition came at him; this is the high ceiling guy with feel for the game that you can dream on. Rosario has feel to stay inside the ball and works the middle of the field in games, with a surprising amount of homers to right-center field already. Scouts have mentioned Addison Russell, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Beltre as possible comps and each has some things in common with Rosario, but his full-season debut will tell us more about the kind of player he’s becoming.
61. Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
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Hit: 20/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: As you may guess, Raul (who went by his middle name Adalberto when he signed) is the son of former Dodger RF Raul Mondesi, who is now the mayor of his hometown in the Dominican Republic. The Royals took some flack for giving him $2 million in the 2011 July 2nd period, but he improved greatly after signing and has made that investment look shrewd. There aren’t questions about Mondesi’s speed, defense, arm strength or raw power, but the aggressive way the Royals have promoted him have raised questions about his bat. He played all of last season in High-A at age 18/19, the same age as an American high school senior, so you can imagine why he struggled with the bat. It’s hard to see impact, even from a good swing with bat speed, when the hitter is overmatched, so it’s difficult to get really excited about Mondesi until he isn’t being thrown in the deep end of the pool developmentally, but it’s hard to ignore his ability.
62. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
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Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Iglesias was exclusively a reliever in Cuba and would get into the mid-90?s at times with an above average slider, with most teams thinking that was a preview of his eventual big league fit. The Reds see these types of talents as an opportunity to develop those talents in a rotation (Nick Howard and Michael Lorenzen below are recent domestic examples) and with the successful Aroldis Chapman contract behind, took another gamble of a talented Cuban reliever. Iglesias jumped from the fringes off this list into the middle of it with electric appearances in the Arizona Fall League and instructs. He sat 91-95 and hit 97 mph in these outings, with his stuff varying a bit in each outing. Iglesias is about to turn 25 and there’s some east/west, inconsistency and effort to his delivery, but scouts see the elements of average command in the tank. Iglesias has a four pitch mix and his slider will flash plus every now and then, so there’s mid-rotation upside. He’ll either go to Triple-A and join a deep staff or break with the big league club in the bullpen; it sounds right now like the big league bullpen is his likely starting point but, like with Chapman, the rotation will be tried once the innings get built up.
63. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies
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Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Some teams were skeptical before the draft of McMahon’s ability to corral his long limbs to make enough contact long-term, but some scouts I talked to were all-in after an impressive full-season debut. One scout argued McMahon could be the Rockies #1 prospect right now and with Gray/Butler possibly graduating next year and McMahon heading to the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2015, that may happen next year. He strikes out more than you’d like to see, but McMahon is just 19 and was also a star quarterback in high school (another example of a Rockies draft pick with that on his resume), so there’s still a need for reps. McMahon projects for plus raw power and, while he isn’t there right now, most believe with some work he will be able to stick at third base long-term.
64. C.J. Edwards, RHP, Chicago Cubs
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Edwards was a near unknown pitcher as an amateur; you don’t see many pitchers this high on prospect lists that signed for $50,000 out of high school in the 48th round. The Cubs smartly grabbed him from Texas in the Matt Garza trade late in his breakout season in 2013. He’s still a rail-thin righty that some think will never add the necessary bulk to throw 200 innings in the big leagues, but the stuff and command projects for the middle of the rotation. He’ll head back to Double-A to begin 2015 but could be a big league rotation option in 2016.
65. Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 40/50, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Matz was a high school draft out of New York state that was a raw talent to begin with, but he then lost about two years of development time at the beginning of his career, due to a Tommy John surgery and some complications. He did well in Low-A last year, then took a big step forward this year over High-A and Double-A, putting him in conversation of the Mets deep upper levels of pitching. Matz works 91-95 and hits 96 mph with an above average to plus changeup and a curveball that’s improved dramatically to now flash average to slightly above. He’s an excellent athlete that commands his fastball well and his maturity and ability to improve has impressed the Mets. There’s a #3 starter in here if it all comes together, but the curveball and command of his off-speed is still inconsistent, not to mention his age and injury history give scouts some pause.
66. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Taillon was one of the more hyped high school pitchers in recent memory, with both the Pirates and Orioles ranking him first on their draft boards, ahead of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. He flashed the same power stuff in pro ball as he did in high school, with an explosive mid-90’s fastball and a curveball that was a 70 at times, though his changeup and command lagged behind. There wasn’t really a question if Taillon could stick as a starter, he just had trouble with some finer points of pitching and consistency. Then, his elbow popped and he got Tommy John surgery last year, knocking out his entire 2014 season. He’ll return in the middle of the season in the upper levels and should be a big league option in 2016, assuming everything comes back as expected.
67. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
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Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Hoffman was a known power arm for the 2014 draft at East Carolina, then he broke out in the summer before the draft on the Cape (see linked video), flashing an 80 fastball and 65 or 70 curveball from an athletic delivery, projectable frame and shockingly good feel to pitch given the power stuff. He didn’t look the same in the spring, as just as he was making adjustments to his delivery to regain form, his elbow popped and he won’t return until until mid-season in 2015. Even with the surgery taking Hoffman out of #1 overall pick contention, the Jays thought he wouldn’t get out of the top 5, so they were pleased to land him with the 9th overall pick. He drew comparisons to Adam Wainwright and Justin Verlander on the Cape, so if he regains that form, he could shoot to the top of this list in short order.
68. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
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Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: The 6-foot-4/185 lefty was half of what may have been the best 1-2 punch in high school baseball history, with Nationals top prospect RHP Lucas Giolito at Harvard Westlake High School in 2012. Unfortunately, Giolito’s senior season ended prematurely with soreness that led to Tommy John surgery and Fried himself also had the surgery performed on him this past August; the Braves acquired him from San Diego this winter as the headliner in the Justin Upton deal. He’s due back on the mound sometime around fall instructional league in 2015. Even in those few starts before his elbow popped in 2014, Fried’s stuff was still pretty close to his peak stuff: 90-93, hitting 96 mph with a plus curveball and improving above average changeup. His stuff will vary start to start and his changeup flashes 60 for some scouts, but not often and never when at the same time as his curveball. Fried’s clean mechanics aren’t a concern and he has lots of projection to his frame, so these future grades could be conservative; the upside is huge, with one scout mentioning Cole Hamels, but it’s still very early.
69. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Atlanta Braves
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Fastball: 70/80, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Foltynewicz got an 18.2 inning taste of the big leagues late in 2014 and started 18 of his 21 minor league appearances, but is far from a finished product. He sits 95-98 mph and has hit 100 mph as a starter with a curveball that flashes plus at times, but his lack of command of the pitch causes the pitch to play closer to average at times. His changeup has flashed plus for some scouts, but plays average to slightly above for most. There’s a lack of feel here that causes many to doubt Foltynewicz’s future as a starter. He’s a solid athlete and his delivery isn’t that bad but he hasn’t quite put it all together ye. The Braves top scouts have seen the best version of Foltynewicz and they’re confident that big league pitching coach Roger McDowell can coax the starter traits out of Folty on a regular basis, likely in the big leagues in 2015.
70. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
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Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Sanchez has a sturdy 6-foot-4/200 frame and loose arm that helped him go in the sandwich round in 2010 out of a southern California high school. He was a raw pitcher with flashes of power stuff, but Sanchez has really grown into his velocity since then, sitting 95-98 and hitting 99 mph in 33 big league relief innings at the end of 2014. As his off-speed stuff has improved to give Sanchez at least mid-rotation stuff, the question remains if he fits better there or as a closer. Toronto’s #5 starter spot is still an open competition along with at least one bullpen slot, so Sanchez has the opportunity this year to prove where he fits.
71. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
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Fastball: 70/80, Slider: 60/65, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45, FV: 55
Scouting Report: The 6-foot-9/220 monster sat 98-100 mph for two innings in the linked video in last year’s Arizona Fall League debut. He surprised some scouts by lasting the whole season in the rotation at Triple-A this year, throwing 130.1 innings with lesser but still elite stuff, sitting 93-98 with plus life and the knockout slider. Meyer’s changeup has improved and flashes solid-average while his huge frame and long limbs give him trouble commanding his pitches and repeating his delivery. Most scouts think he ends up as a shutdown closer, but the Twins are trying to make him a starter and there’s still a chance Meyer gets there. If he can tone everything down to where it’s repeatable, the upside is probably a #3 starter but this seems destined for the bullpen at some point, with a 2015 big league look likely once an spot opens up.
72. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Nick is the son of Tom Gordon and the brother of Marlins 2B Dee Gordon, so the bloodlines are good and when Nick was a high school sophomore, his senior teammates were first rounders RF Jesse Winker and RHP Walker Weickel. Combine that with the fact that Nick was noticeable as a top prospect in his class as early as his freshman year and he seemed to be at every major showcase or tournament his entire prep career and it’s easy to see why scout were comfortable with him by draft time. Between October and January showcases, Gordon appeared to put on about 10 pounds and mature physically, turning him from a late first rounder into the 5th overall pick. He doesn’t have flashy tools other than his plus arm that allowed him to hit 95 mph on the mound, so there isn’t much margin for error, but Gordon has excellent feel for the game, helped by working with Barry Larkin during earlier this year.
73. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins
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Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Slider: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Stewart was the 4th overall pick in 2013 as an athletic righty that flashed plus stuff at times and was also a four star quarterback recruit committed to Texas A&M. He’s had some ups and down in pro ball with his stuff varying from game-to-game, but he’s still relatively new to the mound and arm speed variations are normal for young arms with limited experience.
74. Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins
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Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Kolek jumped on the national scene in the summer of 2013 after hitting 100 mph at the Area Code Games regional tryout in Texas, just after the 2013 MLB Draft. He then showed up at most of the major events over the summer, where his velocity ranged from 93-98, hitting 100 mph in early innings, but sometimes would dip to the low 90?s in longer outings. His sharp low-80?s curveball would flash plus but was often just average to above, while he only very sparingly threw a nascent changeup. As prep pitchers often do, Kolek’s velo slipped after the draft and he looked quite ordinary, but this is a long-term play by the Marlins. If Kolek can maintain his peak stuff, he’s got a chance to be a frontline starter, which is rare, but there’s a long way to go and there’s plenty of risk along the way.
75. Vince Velasquez, RHP, Houston Astros
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Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Velasquez has been a standout talent when healthy, but he has a long history of injuries. He had a strained ligament and stress fracture in his throwing elbow in his junior year of high school, then after going in the 2nd round and throwing 29.1 pro innings in 2010, Velasquez missed all of 2011 with Tommy John surgery. He also didn’t look his best in the Arizona Fall League after a solid season, with multiple teams telling me they were spooked enough by the medical to avoid him in trade talks. When he’s right, Velasquez sits 91-95 with a plus changeup and an improving curveball that flashes average to slightly above, to go with some feel to pitch that draw solid-average command grades. He’s also an excellent athlete that looks on the mound like he could grab a stick and play in the field if he wanted to. Some scouts that saw him at his peak prefer him to Appel, but the spotty history makes that a hard stance to support without more healthy innings from Velasquez.
76. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
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Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Reyes grew up in New Jersey then moved to the Dominican, where he signed with the Cardinals for $850,000. He checks all the boxes as a young power arm, with a projectable 6-foot-3/185 frame, a solid delivery, and easy plus fastball that sits 92-95 and hits 97 mph along withe a curveball that flashes plus. He’s still learning the finer points of his craft, with his command and consistency of his off-speed stuff varying start-to-start. He’ll be 20 in High-A next year and could be on the fast track to the big leagues with some key adjustments.
77. Michael Conforto, LF, New York Mets
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Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Conforto was a well-known as an elite hitting prospect early in his career at Oregon State but kicked it into another gear in his draft year. His plus raw power and bat speed from the left side to go with a patient and power-focused approach appealed to a lot of scouts, with the Mets taking Conforto off the board at 10th overall. He earned a shaky defensive reputation in college and when I saw him in the summer after his sophomore year for Team USA, his arm was a 40 or 45 and he was still having some difficulty getting good jumps. He took a step forward in his draft spring, looking about average defensively with his arm suddenly playing average to slightly above. The idea that he was a first baseman was gone and the coaches in Brooklyn raved about Conforto’s defense after he signed. The bat is the carrying tool for Conforto and he’s the same age as Nimmo, so it’ll be interesting to compare their development over the next few years as advanced corner bats.
78. Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 40/35, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Sisco was an under-the-radar draft prospect that didn’t go to the big showcases and only started catching in his senior year, because he pitched and played multiple positions. He’s still rough at times behind the plate, but it’s more due to a lack of experience with the little things than a lack of ability. The tools are there to stick behind the plate and be average defensively, with enough arm for the position, though Sisco needs to work on quickening his release. The carrying tool here is the bat and scouts grade it anywhere from 55 to 70, despite Sisco’s highest pro experience coming at Low-A. One scout said Sisco’s approach and offensive tools are similar to former Orioles RF Nick Markakis.
79. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland A’s
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Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/45, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 65/65, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 55
Scouting Report: Barreto was known to international scouts for years before he signed for $1.45 million on July 2nd, 2012 from Venezuela. There’s something to be said for smaller kids reaching their potential sooner than the more projectable, higher upside prospects, but don’t mistake Barreto for a low upside prospect just due to his size. He’s a plus runner that very well could end up sticking at shortstop, where he plays now and has made improvements, though most scouts see his actions and size and assume he slides over to second base or out to center field. At the least, he’ll offer the ability to play all three positions in the big leagues if needed. He’s so advanced at the plate that he may play both A-Ball levels in 2015 and zoom through the system, which is why the A’s made him a key part of the Josh Donaldson trade.
50 FV Prospects (Tier of 63)
80. Dalton Pompey, CF, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Full Report & Video
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 45/45, Game Power: 35/40, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 45/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Pompey was a little-known, young-for-his-class Canadian high schooler in the 2011 draft and stayed under the radar until a strong finish to his 2013 campaign in Low-A. He shot through the system in 2014, going form High-A to the big leagues after he kept impressing at each level when the Blue Jays though he may settle in. Pompey will start in Triple-A or the big leagues in 2015 and is the center fielder of the future, but the tools are more solid everyday than star material.
81. Stephen Piscotty, RF, St. Louis Cardinals
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Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 35/50, Run: 45/45+, Field: 50/50, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Piscotty has been a steady if unspectacular prospect for years, showing above average tools and performance. He had and excuse for his raw power not showing up enough in games because he went to Stanford where they literally yell at hitters to not hit homers in batting practice. Piscotty hit nine homer sin a full Triple-A season last year, so with little progress and in today’s muted offensive environment, that’s one of the top 60 corner outfielders in the game, but the raw power is there for 20 homers, which would make him a middle of the order type bat.
82. Marco Gonzales, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
More: Video
Fastball: 50/50, Slider: 45/50, Curveball: 50/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: In the 2013 draft, Gonzales was seen as a quick-moving college lefty with above average command and a plus changeup, but probably just #4 starter upside. He shot through the minors and had his first speed bump in his big league audition, but some minor adjustments should unlock a steady, league-average starter in short order.
83. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 20/40, Run: 70/70, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Turner was barely known by scouts in high school, then was seen as a possible first rounder after a huge freshman year at N.C. State. He has a chance to go in the top five picks with his teammate LHP Carlos Rodon (#8 on this list) entering his junior season, but trouble with swing mechanics led to an up-and-down draft year. Rodon went 3rd overall and Turner went 13th overall, with Turner being dealt this summer in a three-way deal with Tampa Bay and San Diego, but he can’t be formally sent to the Nationals until one year after he signed, which will be this June. I’m a high guy on Turner in the industry and I may adjust his hit grade up a notch with a strong start to 2015.
84. Brandon Drury, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Drury was traded from Atlanta to Arizona as a secondary piece in the first Justin Upton deal. He’s steadily made progress since a slow start to pro ball and now is knocking on the door of the big leagues with solid tools across the board. The D’Backs toyed with trying Drury at second base in the Arizona Fall League since he had such good range at third, but his bat is what will carry him; I may be a grade light on it.
85. Brandon Nimmo, RF, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Nimmo has an unusual background as a 1st rounder from a Wyoming high school, where they don’t even have organized high school baseball. He played for a travel team leading up to the draft and teams liked his smooth lefty stroke, power potential and plus athleticism. Nimmo probably ends up in right field and is still working through his fit on the offensive contact/power and aggressive/passive spectrum, but the tools are here for an above average everyday right fielder and he’s performed well while being young for his level.
86. Andrew Susac, C, San Francisco Giants
More: Video
Hit: 40/45+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 40/50, Run: 35/35, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Susac is pretty well explained by his tool grades and he’s near big league ready. He’s can catch and throw at least league average and his ultimate upside comes down to how much contact he makes and how much of his 20-homer power he gets to in games.
87. Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
More: Video
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 45/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 55/55, Field: 55/60, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Orlando is the younger brother of Twins OF Oswaldo Arcia and has been beating expectations since he signed out of Venezuela in 2010 for $95,000. After signing, he immediately looked like a steal as a skinny kid that could play shortstop and hit a bit, but he took another step forward this year, hitting 13% better than league average, stealing 31 bases and posting great plate discipline numbers in a full season at High-A last year at age 19. He’ll head to Double-A next year at age 20 and has the look of a solid everyday shortstop.
88. Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/60, Curveball: 40/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Lorenzen, like Howard below (#128 on the list) was drafted as a two-way college closer with limited experience on the mound, particularly in long outings. Lorenzen surprised the Reds with his feel for pitching and his ability to hold his sinker-slider combo that flashes plus late into outings. There’s mid-rotation upside here, but Lorenzen still needs to work on some of the finer points of setting up hitters.
89. Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
More: Video
Fastball: 55/65, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Holmes may have been my favorite prep pitcher in last year’s draft. He’s only 6-foot tall and has no physical projection remaining, but he’s strong, has feel to pitch and has knockout #2 starter stuff. Holmes hit 100 mph early in the spring but more commonly sits 92-94, hitting 96 mph with an easy plus curveball and changeup that flashes above average.
90. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 50/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Adames is one of the most recent examples of the Tigers developing a solid prospect and dealing him as soon as he had significant trade value, like RHP Jake Thompson (#29 on this list) who was used to get RHP Joakim Soria. Adames had a breakout year at Low-A in 2014 and was the significant second piece used to get LHP David Price. The Rays were pleasantly surprised how quickly the 19-year-old Adames became a leader for their Low-A club after the trade, but the reason they traded for him was his advanced feel for the game and easy everyday tools.
91. Raimel Tapia, CF, Colorado Rockies
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 30/40, Raw Power: 35/45, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Tapia is rail-thin and his swing is kinda funny-looking, but he hits so much (.342/.392/.503 in over 700 PA in domestic leagues) that scouts are starting to mention those things less often. He’ll head to the hitter-friendly Cal League next year and will rake again, but his upside is limited a bit by his size and power. One scout said a bad outcome for Tapia would be turning into Jon Jay, with a good chance he’s better than that.
92. Albert Almora, CF, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 55/55, Field: 60/65, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Almora was my favorite player in the 2012 draft class due to his advanced instincts and feel for the game on both sides of the ball. He’s still that guy, but had a hamate injury and has had some struggles at the plate because he’s such an aggressive hitter. He’ll need to make some adjustments to his approach since Double-A was the first level where he couldn’t hit with that approach. If he makes some progress there, he has 15+ homer power and near Gold Glove defense, so there’s some real ceiling despite just solid raw tools.
93. Max Pentecost, C, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Video
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 20/45+, Game Power: 45/50+, Run: 55/50+, Field: 45/55, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Pentecost was the breakout prospect in last summer’s Cape Cod League as a super-athletic catcher from a small school (Kennesaw State), that was a so-so physical away from signing with Texas out of high school. I was the high guy on him much of the spring, with the industry catching up when Theo Epstein was spotted at a Pentecost game and rumors spread that he may go #4 overall. Pentecost ended up going #11 overall and has unusual tools for a catcher with a ridiculous amount of energy (watch the end of the linked video) and every tool solid average or better, though his line drive approach in games causes his raw power to play down right now.
94. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
More: Video
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/50+, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Zimmer’s pure ability belongs much higher on this list, with frontline stuff, a clean delivery and outstanding athleticism that helps creates solid average command. Zimmer has also been to Double-A already and could turn into a frontline starter, but he can’t stay healthy, throwing 14.1 innings last year due to arm trouble, then leaving the Arizona Fall League after three outings to get shoulder surgery. Scouts assume he won’t be able to handle a starter’s workload and he should just be used in relief, but now we don’t know if the stuff will come back after surgery, so there’s lots of questions, risk and upside here.
95. Erick Fedde, RHP, Washington Nationals
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Fedde broke out last summer for Team USA and on the Cape, then steadily climbed up draft boards to the point that he was a consensus top 10 pick when he was forced to get Tommy John surgery before the draft. The Nats drafted him in the back half of the first round knowing they normally don’t have a chance to pick this kind of talent and all indications are solid from his rehab. There’s mid-rotation upside with a slight chance for more, and elbow surgery has something like an 85% success rate, so if he comes back later this year with the same stuff, Fedde will move up this list a healthy amount.
96. Justin O’Conner, C, Tampa Bay Rays
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/45, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 40/40, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 80/80, FV: 50
Scouting Report: O’Conner was a raw first round pick in 2011 out of an Indiana high school, with multiple teams having him in the middle rounds because they didn’t think he’d hit enough. That looked to be the case until this year, when things clicked across the board for O’Conner and he stood out offensively in High-A and the Arizona Fall League and getting back on track on an age-versus-level basis by hitting Double-A late in the year. O’Conner is still a power over hit guy that will strike out a fair amount, but the offensive standard for catchers is low and he’ll be at least average behind the plate and likely be better due to his top-of-the-scale 80 arm with a freaky quick release that allows him to put up ridiculous pop times in the 1.7s.
97. Daniel Robertson, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
More: Video
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 45/45, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Robertson was acquired by the Rays from the A’s this winter in the Ben Zobrist trade and he’s a steady player with solid tools that still gets somewhat wide-ranging reviews from scouts. From my limited look at his this fall, he can’t play shortstop and at least one-third of scouts agreed with what I saw, which I also realize could’ve just been a bad look. The A’s, Rays and execs from other clubs are convinced after seeing him a lot over the past few years that he can play shortstop, which would help his solid average bat fit even better in the lineup. I think Robertson fits as an offensive second baseman who may hit 15-18 homers, so even Robertson’s detractors see a solid everyday player.
98. Marcos Molina, RHP, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 45/55, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Molina threw in the mid-80’s when he signed at age 16 out of the Dominican Republic, then his stuff ticked up in short stints in 2013 to hit the mid-90’s. This year, he was able to showcase that stuff over full outings at age 19, sitting 91-94 and hitting 97 mph. He was a pitchability guy with a good changeup when he was a soft-tosser, and Molina has kept those elements, with his fastball and slider ticking up with the added arm speed. Molina will head to a very pitcher-friendly park in Low-A Savannah next year and scouts are predicting a big year; if the stuff ticks up just one more notch, he’ll easily be in the top 50 next year.
99. Rob Kaminsky, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
More: Video
Fastball: 50/50+, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Kaminsky isn’t the typical 1st round high school pitcher as he’s listed at 5-foot-11/191, but the stuff is big and there’s advanced feel to pitch. Kaminsky sits in the low-90’s, his changeup took a step forward in his first full year and his plus curveball is a now weapon that could get big leaguers out. The Cardinals have a good track record with developing young pitchers and Kaminsky is about as advanced as cold-weather bred 20-year-old arm can be, so he might move fast.
100. Jacob Lindgren, LHP, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 60/65, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: The biggest surprise so far from the 2014 draft was the meteoric post-draft rise of Lindgren. In 2013, he was a generic sophomore lefty with fringy stuff starting for Mississippi State, then he asked to be moved to relief in the fall, he hit the mid-90’s with a nasty slider and never looked back. Lindgren carved up the SEC and the Yankees took him in the 2nd round. He then proceeded to carve up the minors with equally impressive numbers and he’s now knocking on the door of the big leagues with closer level stuff and just enough of the feel from his starter days to spot his hellacious slider where he wants it.
101. Clint Frazier, CF, Cleveland Indians
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Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 65/65, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/5, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Frazier was the most fun player to watch in the 2013 draft class, with an out-of-control red mop of hair and Gary Sheffield-level 80 bat speed that allowed him to put on ridiculous batting practice displays at his small home park. Frazier had some trouble making contact in high school against soft-tosser because it causes problems for him to try to slow down his incredibly fast hands. He had some similar timing and approach issues in his full-season debut, striking out in nearly 30% of his at bats, but flashing the same huge tools. Frazier is just fast enough to play center field and he might hit 30 homers, but he fits fine in right field if he ends up there eventually.
102. Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Speed: 80/80, Field: 45/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Mateo was generating a lot of buzz this summer in Rookie ball for the Yankees, but he broke his finger before I was able to get out to see him. I saw him this fall in instructional league and I saw where there was so much buzz around him; he has top-of-the-scale 80 speed, has the tools to stick at shortstop, has surprising pop and was hanging with pitches three or four years older than him. Mateo still has a very short track record, so his full-season debut in 2015 will be closely watched, with a good shot Mateo moves up on next year’s list.
103. Josh Bell, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates
More: Video
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Bell was considered unsignable out of a Texas high school in 2011, but the Pirates took him in the 2nd round and signed him for $5 million, seeing a dynamic right fielder. He still probably fits best as a right fielder, so I’ll list him there, but the Pirates have three center field-caliber defenders entrenched in their lineup (Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco), a huge outfield that necessitates this kind of ability, and a hole to fill long-term at first base. So, since defense was never a big part of his game, Pittsburgh is shifting Bell to first and he’s still new over there, so it’s a little rough, but he should be fine. He may not be the middle-of-the-order terror the Pirates were expecting, but the bat should be enough to profile everyday at any position.
104. Brian Johnson, LHP, Boston Red Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 50/50, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 50/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Johnson was on a loaded 2012 Florida team that included C Mike Zunino, SS Nolan Fontana, LF Preston Tucker, RHP Jonathon Crawford and LHP Paco Rodriguez, among others. Johnson had above average power from the left side and served as DH at times, but his upside was on the mound, as a pitchability lefty that flashes above average stuff. On any given day, Johnson’s stuff may be closer to average, but his feel for pitching helps it to play up; he’s likely to hit his upside as a back-end starter, but there isn’t much more in the tank.
105. Miguel Almonte, RHP, Kansas City Royals
More: Video
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 45/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Almonte will flash huge ability at times, sitting 93-96 mph with a plus changeup at times, but he often doesn’t have that peak combination at the same time that he has his peak curveball and peak command. He also throws from a lower slot, which means lefties can see the ball better against him than other righties and it also can flatten out his pitches at times. If Almonte can find more consistency in his delivery, that should go a long way towards correcting these issues and unlocking his mid-rotation upside.
106. Christian Bethancourt, C, Atlanta Braves
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/45, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 30/45, Run: 40/40, Field: 55/60, Throw: 80/80, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Bethancourt has long been known to scouts as a standout defender with an 80 arm, but he hasn’t had much polish to his game on either side of the ball until recently. He made strides with the finer points of his defense and finally starting putting up offensive numbers in the last couple years, giving the Braves a comfort level with letting Brian McCann leave, as Bethancourt will step in this year with the starting job.
107. Brett Phillips, CF, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 70/70, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Phillips was a late-rising prep prospect in the 2012 draft as an all-county wide receiver and linebacker who emerged a standout center fielder in his draft year. He was seen as an above average to plus runner that can play center field, standing out for his plus plus arm and contact ability. Phillips took another step forward in 2014, adding strength to his frame and hitting for more power while keeping his speed. If he keeps hitting like this in 2015, Phillips will likely work his way into the middle of the top 100 next year.
108. Jorge Polanco, 2B, Minnesota Twins
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 30/40, Run: 50/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Scouts seem to slightly prefer Polanco to Herrera, as both are basically big league ready second basemen with similar tools, so they’re easy to compare. The separator is that Polanco can play shortstop if needed, so if the bat doesn’t play as much as expected, he can be a true utility player. Both have advanced bats and below average game power, so it’s basically a coin flip, but Polanco gives more defensive versatility with the same overall tools while Herrera has a better offensive track record.
109. Dilson Herrera, 2B, New York Mets
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 45/55, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 40/45, Run: 50/50+, Field: 45/50, Throw: 45/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Herrera follows in the footsteps of Rangers 2B Rougned Odor as a smallish Latin second baseman that was a known quantity on July 2nd, but had to settle for a low six figure bonus due to a lack of flashy tools. Both raked their way to the big leagues as potential everyday players, so maybe teams should change how they look at this kind of guy, but even now scouts find it hard to go all-in on Herrera. His swing is funny, he doesn’t project to hit for a lot of game power and he can only play second base, but he also raked his way to the big leagues at age 20 and there’s enough here for an everyday player.
110. Kyle Freeland, LHP, Colorado Rockies
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Freeland stood out on the Cape as a potential first rounder, then took another step forward this spring, when he was untouchable down the stretch, flashing plus stuff and advanced command. The problem is that an elbow surgery as a high school freshman contributed to big questions about his medical on draft day, with some teams telling me they wouldn’t take him in the first round at all, though Colorado took the hometown kid at 8th overall for an under-slot bonus. The mechanics aren’t great but the stuff can be at times, so it’ll be interesting to see if Freeland can stay healthy and if he can continue showing the premium stuff he did down the stretch in 2014.
111. Nick Kingham, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
More: Video
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/50, Changeup: 55/55, Command: 45/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Kingham isn’t a sexy prospect, but he’s near big league ready and projects as a steady, league-average #4 starter. What I’m supposed to say now is that this kind of player is worth over $10 million a year on the open market, so this is the key, cost-controlled contributor that smaller market teams like PIttsburgh need. I guess I did say it, I’m just trying to let you know Kingham isn’t the super exciting prospect whose video you can’t wait to watch.
112. Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Sims was another 1st round high school pick of a local Atlanta kid by the Braves and, though he had a tough 1st half in 2014, he regrouped down the stretch and is back on track. One scout compared Sims’ talent to Matt Cain out of high school and, while the body types are different, on Sims’ best day he shows that kind of stuff. His curveball regressed a bit in 2014, but it’s flashed plus at times and the ability is there for at least average command, so mid-rotation upside is still on the table.
113. Francelis Montas, RHP, Chicago White Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/70, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Montas was acquired from the Red Sox in the Jake Peavy deal in 2013 and he’s emerged as more than just a circus act in Rookie ball that hit 100 mph. Montas has steadily improved, with his average slider taking a big step forward this year to now flashing plus, his changeup is now enough to give him a starter’s repertoire and he still hits 100 mph at times. The question is whether his delivery and command fit as a starter and most think he ends up as a closer, but there’s still a chance he figures out a way to fit as a mid-rotation starter.
114. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 35/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: I saw Toussaint pitch in his sophomore year of high school and he was very athletic, sitting 88-91 mph with a plus curveball at age 16. He blew up the following fall before his junior year, when he hit 97 mph and flashed a 70 curveball in front of hundreds of scouts at a high profile tournament. He stalled a bit in the summer before his senior year and early in his draft spring, scuffling in the low-90’s with diminished stuff and little command. He broke out later in the spring, flashing the same power stuff from before, but choosing to dial it down a notch and working in a new changeup, so he could successfully command it and get hitters out. This adjustment got Toussaint drafted in the middle of the first round, but there’s still a long way to go.
115. Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
More: Video
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Medeiros was one of the most unique pitchers in the 2014 draft, as a skinny 6-foot-1 prep lefty from Hawaii that throws from a near sidearm angle, but hits 95 mph with an easy plus slider. Scouts weren’t sure where to rank such a unique prospect, but he steadily moved up boards into the mid-to-late first round, with a sterling pre-draft workout in Milwaukee prompting the Brewers to draft him at 12th overall. There’s mid-rotation or closer upside and it’s too early to have a good idea of what he’ll turn into.
116. Spencer Adams, RHP, Chicago White Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 45/50+, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Adams is a classic multi-sport, athletic projection prospect: he sat in the high-80’s as a junior, then sat in the low-90’s and hit 96 mph in his draft spring. Scouts liked that he had four pitches and advanced feel to turn over a changeup despite playing a lot of basketball, where the 6-foot-5 Adams stood out (and dunked often). Adams has a chance to rocket up this list if his performance in pro ball matches his considerable upside and some rival teams think he’s most likely in this group to be in the top quarter of this list in a few years.
117. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Ortiz drew Jose Fernandez comparisons from some scouts this spring, with a pre-draft elbow scare causing him to slip to the end of the first round to the Rangers. When healthy, Ortiz has consistently shown two plus pitches and all the traits you want to see from a future starter, so he’s about as close to reaching his #3 starter upside as a 19-year-old can be at this point.
118. Brad Zimmer, RF, Cleveland Indians
More: Video
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 50/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 60/55, Field: 50/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: This summer, Zimmer was another highly athletic first rounder out of the University of San Francisco like his brother Kyle (#93 on this list). Brad is a hitter that’s drawn comparisons to Marlins OF Christian Yelich for his long frame, deceptive speed, and contact approach. Zimmer can play a solid center field now, but likely moves to right field eventually, with further physical projection and/or adding loft to his swing potentially making him a really good starter, if he can hit for average and power in games.
119. Roberto Osuna, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
More: Video
Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Osuna signed for $1.5 million in 2011 as a 16-year-old out of Mexico. He had a mature frame and had hit 95 mph, but sat around 90 and relied on pitchability and an above average to plus changeup. He returned from Tommy John surgery late this year and his velocity jumped a couple ticks, to the surprise and delight of Blue Jays execs. He’s now sitting 92-94 and hitting 97 mph, sitting a few ticks higher in short stints, with a slider and cutter that are both above average and the same changeup as before. The command hasn’t quite come back but that usually happens in year two or three after surgery, so Osuna could shoot up this list soon.
120. Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 20/60, Run: 35/35, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Bird is indeed the word after Greg breakout 2014 season, which came on the heels of a shockingly good full-season debut in 2013. The converted catcher is first base-only, so he has to mash to be an everyday player and he doesn’t show you much power in batting practice, but really stands out in games. Bird has plus power and good plate discipline, with some comparing him to a non-injury-prone Nick Johnson.
121. Colin Moran, 3B, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Moran is arguably the most polarizing prospect in the minor leagues and I delved into why at length at the full report linked to above. The short version is that he’s an unexciting player who hits well, doesn’t have much power, is a gangly, low energy kid that, at first glance, can’t play third base. The good version is that he really hits, he has good plate discipline, there’s reason to believe the power is coming and he’s a late bloomer for upstate New York that can stick at third and has generally been young for his minor league levels, even though he went to college. Sort through all that and decide what you think; this ranking is splitting the difference on people that think he’s top 100 quality or barely a prospect worth mentioning.
122. Alex Blandino, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 50/50, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Blandino hit two straight summers on the Cape but struggled during the spring with the short-sighted hitting philosophy at Stanford. He broke out in his draft year and showed more raw power, hitting his way into the first round. The Reds think he might be able to stick at shortstop and he played third base at Stanford, but most scouts have thought for years that Blandino’s best fit is at second base.
123. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
More: Video
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 40/45+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Last summer on the high school showcase circuit, Flaherty was seen as a top-three round caliber third baseman with a super-athletic long, projectable frame and a smooth swing. Scouts knew he also pitched, but he didn’t throw over the summer and has fringy to average stuff as a junior. In his senior year, Flaherty took a big step forward on the mound, flashing three above average pitches and above average command with a clean delivery, a projectable athletic frame and limited miles on his arm. There isn’t a plus pitch right now and he hasn’t thrown a ton in the last year, but Flaherty has just about everything else going for him.
124. Duane Underwood, RHP, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Underwood was an inconsistent prep arm from Atlanta in the 2012 draft that, early in his pro career, look to be more bust than boom. He turned things around and had a breakout 2014 campaign in Low-A, flashing three plus pitches at times. Underwood still has trouble with command at time and he often only has one or two of his pitches working in any given outing, so there’s plenty of room for growth with #2/3 starter upside if he brings it all together.
125. Pierce Johnson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Johnson popped up in his draft year at Missouri State flashing above average stuff, slipping on draft day due to some concerns about his delivery, command and future health prospects. Johnson has avoided major injuries and performed well, with his above average to plus fastball-curveball combo giving him #3 starter upside, but the command and consistency have been bugaboos and he may ultimate fit best in the bullpen.
126. Lance McCullers, RHP, Houston Astros
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 35/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: McCullers’ father was a big leaguer and Lance Jr. hit 95 mph as a 15-year-old at Tampa area powerhouse Jesuit High School. He’s been a high-profile name for years and the Astros signed him to a $2.5 million bonus in 2012 with some of the savings from an under-slot deal with #1 overall pick SS Carlos Correa (#5 on this list). McCullers has a nasty fastball-curveball combo that’s plus-plus on the right day and would easily make him a closer if he can’t stick as a starter.
127. Travis Demeritte, 2B, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50, Game Power: 20/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 50/50+, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Demeritte drew Brandon Phillips comparisons as an offensive standout Atlanta-area prep shortstop that projected to move to second base. He hit for power in his full-season debut, but didn’t make as much contact as you’d like to see. Demeritte has feel to hit and above average bat speed, so it’s more a matter of striking a contact/power balance. He has solid everyday tools and could move quick, but probably won’t be a star.
128. Nick Howard, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Howard was the closer for UVA last spring and blew away ACC hitters with a fastball he ran up to 98 mph and a plus slider. He’s a big athlete that had started the previous summer on the Cape and the Reds took him in the 1st round to turn him back into a starter. The stuff was down a notch in most outings after signing, but he showed flashes of that closer stuff in some outings as a starter. As Howard gets stretched out, if that plus stuff comes back for longer stretches, he will move up this list quickly.
129. Forrest Wall, 2B, Colorado Rockies
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 35/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Speed: 65/65, Field: 45/50, Throw: 45/45, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Wall was one of “my guys” in the 2014 draft and I can’t believe he lasted until the 35th overall pick, with most scouts explaining it as a systematic bias against high school second basemen. Normally that would mean Wall is deficient in a tool-sense, but he only plays second base because of a shoulder surgery as an underclassman; he has legitimate mid-first round tools if he was a shortstop. The bat is above average, the power is near average, the defense is at least average and the speed is a difference maker; look for Wall to move quickly and make lots of teams feel foolish for passing.
130. Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/40, Raw Power: 50/50, Game Power: 20/40, Run: 40/40, Field: 60/65, Throw: 70/70, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Hedges was ready defensively for the big league last year and probably would’ve been above average, too. He has some raw power and some feel to hit, but the bat speed isn’t great and his mechanics have always been a little awkward. You don’t have to hit much these days to be an everyday catcher, especially when you’re plus defensively. Hedges knows he just needs to make a little progress with the bat to become a big league starter and he’s focusing on it now more than ever.
131. Lewis Brinson, CF, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/45, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 65/65, Field: 60/65, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Brinson starts a three-player run of crazy tooled-up center fielders with enormous upside. Brinson made the best defensive play I’ve ever seen when I watched him in high school and he’s still crazy elite in this area. Brinson runs and has raw power, but he’s tall and has long limbs and is very skinny, so corralling his body into a consistent swing can sometimes be a challenge. He’s slowly made progress and could be on the verge of a breakout in 2015.
132. Derek Hill, CF, Detroit Tigers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/45+, Run: 80/70, Field: 55/65, Throw: 50/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Hill is the son of a Dodgers scout and the Tigers took him in the first round out of a Sacramento-area high school last summer. Hill has advanced feel to hit and to defend as you’d expect from a scout’s son, with shockingly good tools to back it up. He struggled down the stretch last summer after signing, but it sounds like he was tired from a long season; Hill has the tools to shoot up this list if he puts it all together.
133. Michael Taylor, CF, Washington Nationals
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 30/40, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 30/45+, Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Taylor has massive tools and is near big league ready, but rates this low only because his approach has scouts doubting that he’ll get anywhere near his offensive upside. If he figures things out in 2015, it’ll likely be in the big leagues and he won’t be on this list next year. Even if he doesn’t improve much, Taylor’s plus speed and defensive skills should give him near everyday value, even if he doesn’t hit a lick or just leans back and tries to sock some dingers.
134. Tyler Beede, RHP, San Francisco Giants
More: Video
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Beede was a hyped prospect that went in the 1st round out of high school in 2011, opting not to sign with the Blue Jays before going in the first round again in 2014 out of Vanderbilt to the Giants. Beede was maddeningly inconsistent in college, only showing flashes of his immense promise at times, but his velocity spiked into the high-90’s before the draft and his changeup still flashes plus at times, so there’s #2/3 starter upside here if a pitching coach can get through to him.
135. Luke Jackson, RHP, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/55, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Jackson has long been seen as a reliever that’s doing an impression of a starter in the minors, but now he’s knocking on the door of the big leagues and he may have made enough adjustments to make it work. The stuff plays up in relief for 8th or 9th inning upside, but if the command takes one more step forward, Jackson may turn into a #3/4 starter.
136. Nick Williams, LF, Texas Rangers
More: Video & Full Report
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 55/55, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 45/45, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Williams was heavily hyped as a high school underclassmen in Texas as having Jason Heyward-type tools and while Williams isn’t quite that good of a player, the tools are close to that good. Williams isn’t interested in defense and his arm is below average, so his speed doesn’t contribute much there while his plus raw power is muted in games by his aggressive early-count approach. Williams is so talented he still puts up solid numbers, but it he can make some adjustments to his offensive approach in 2015, he could shoot up this list.
137. Ian Clarkin, LHP, New York Yankees
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Clarkin was the third of the Yankees three first round picks in the 2013 draft and the prep lefty from San Diego has already exceeded expectations. His velocity has settled near the high end of where it was pre-draft and his above average to plus curveball is still the separator, with his changeup and command making good progress in 2014 at Low-A.
138. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, Atlanta Braves
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 45/50+, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Sanchez had a lot of good buzz in 2014 as an advanced 17-year-old pitcher in Rookie ball and he was surprisingly traded this offseason by the Angels to the Braves. Atlanta was surprised and thrilled that Sanchez was available and his solid average stuff and feel with a knockout curveball should move quickly through the minors, with his full-season debut coming in 2015 at Low-A.
139. Hunter Dozier, 3B, Kansas City Royals
More: Video
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 45/45, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 60/60, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Dozier was a late-rising big shortstop in the 2013 draft class from Stephen F. Austin. The Royals took him with an under-slot at 8th overall and those savings allowed them to take LHP Sean Manaea (37th on this list) with the first pick in the sandwich round. Dozier had tons of helium pre-draft and had a big debut, but struggled with contact issues in the second half of 2014 in Double-A. He’s a good athlete with easy everyday tools, so if the bat comes around in 2015, he’ll be close to a callup.
140. Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants
More: Video
Fastball: 60/70, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 35/45, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Crick has electric #2/3 starter stuff, is still only 22 and is in the upper levels of the minors, but his command has never been strong. Some guys with big stuff just take time to develop the feel and find consistency in their delivery, so the Giants will give Crick more innings to figure it out. If he has trouble developing those starter traits again this season, Crick could get a big league audition in relief and he may stick there, with real closer upside.
141. Nick Travieso, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/45+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: Travieso is a husky workhorse righty that flashes a plus fastball-slider combination and could turn into a #3 starter, but the consistency of his breaking ball, changeup and command will all waver at times. There isn’t physical projection left, so most scouts hedge and call him a back-end starter, but the mentality and stuff both may end up fitting better in late relief down the road.
142. Tyler Danish, RHP, Chicago White Sox
More: Video & Full Report
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/50+, FV: 50
Scouting Report: I didn’t believe in Danish as a high schooler in the 2012 draft class because his arm action and delivery were, to be kind, unconventional. Chris Sale‘s mechanics were supposed to lead to his arm exploding, too, and that hasn’t happened, so maybe the White Sox just have a knack for finding the guys that can make this work. Danish is as competitive as they come and I think he’ll stick as a starter, but the stuff ticks up in relief, so don’t be surprised if he finds his way into the big league bullpen in late 2015 if there’s a need and a pennant race.
45+ FV Prospects (Tier of 5
As you may have noticed from the size of the last tier, numerical rankings become nearly irrelevant at this point, as there just aren’t enough clear separations for me to take a strong stance on one player over another. So, rather than continue to order players when it adds no real value, here are the 45+ FV players — or those caught in the in-between space between 45 FV and 50 FV — presented as an extended section of guys who just missed the cut. They are grouped by team, so you can find the guys in your favorite team’s farm system who may very well be strong contenders for a full write-up next year.
45+ FV Honorable Mentions Position Team
Jake Lamb 3B Arizona Diamondbacks
Yoan Lopez RHP Arizona Diamondbacks
Manny Banuelos LHP Atlanta Braves
Tyrell Jenkins RHP Atlanta Braves
Braxton Davidson RF Atlanta Braves
Christian Walker 1B Baltimore Orioles
Zach Davies RHP Baltimore Orioles
Jomar Reyes 3B Baltimore Orioles
Garin Cecchini 3B Boston Red Sox
Matt Barnes RHP Boston Red Sox
Deven Marrero SS Boston Red Sox
Michael Chavis 3B Boston Red Sox
Dan Vogelbach 1B Chicago Cubs
Billy McKinney LF Chicago Cubs
Gleyber Torres SS Chicago Cubs
Trey Michalczewski 3B Chicago White Sox
Yorman Rodriguez RF Cincinnati Reds
Aristides Aquino RF Cincinnati Reds
Amir Garrett LHP Cincinnati Reds
Tyler Anderson LHP Colorado Rockies
Steven Moya RF Detroit Tigers
Domingo Santana RF Houston Astros
Jorge Bonifacio RF Kansas City Royals
Roberto Baldoquin SS Los Angeles Angels
Chris Anderson RHP Los Angeles Dodgers
Alex Verdugo RF Los Angeles Dodgers
J.T. Realmuto C Miami Marlins
Corey Knebel RHP Milwaukee Brewers
Clint Coulter RF Milwaukee Brewers
Tyrone Taylor CF Milwaukee Brewers
Monte Harrison CF Milwaukee Brewers
Gilbert Lara 3B Milwaukee Brewers
Lewis Thorpe LHP Minnesota Twins
Rafael Montero RHP New York Mets
Dominic Smith 1B New York Mets
Rob Refsnyder 2B New York Yankees
Matt Olson 1B Oakland A’s
Renato Nunez 3B Oakland A’s
Matt Chapman 3B Oakland A’s
Zach Eflin RHP Philadelphia Phillies
Alen Hanson SS Pittsburgh Pirates
Reese McGuire C Pittsburgh Pirates
Rymer Liriano RF San Diego Padres
Christian Arroyo SS San Francisco Giants
Edwin Diaz RHP Seattle Mariners
Austin Wilson RF Seattle Mariners
Ketel Marte SS Seattle Mariners
Randal Grichuk RF St. Louis Cardinals
Magneuris Sierra CF St. Louis Cardinals
Alex Colome RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Blake Snell LHP Tampa Bay Rays
Taylor Guerrieri RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Andrew Velazquez SS Tampa Bay Rays
Brent Honeywell RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Devon Travis 2B Toronto Blue Jays
Sean Reid-Foley RHP Toronto Blue Jays
A.J. Cole RHP Washington Nationals
Wilmer Difo SS Washington Nationals
Evaluating the Prospects: Texas Rangers.
Evaluating the Prospects: Colorado Rockies.
Scouts kept saying two things about the Rangers system: this is a deep group with prospects at every level and the Soria trade was a total steal. I know you guys would like to know where I’d guess Texas falls in terms of system strength and if Gallo is as good as some other elite power prospect, but I’ll reserve judgment until I’ve done my due diligence on each team. Here’s the primer for this series and here’s a disclaimer about how none of us really know anything, perfect to read before I attempt to tell you everything about the Rangers farm system.
Most of what you need to know is at those two links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets Texas has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Colorado Rockies.
Big League Growth Assets
1. Jurickson Profar, SS, Age 21
2. Rougned Odor, 2B, Age 20
3. Martin Perez, LHP, Age 23
4. Michael Choice, RF, Age 24
5. Nick Tepesch, RHP, Age 25
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
The Rangers were supposed to be 2014 contenders, but a disastrous season has them at a crossroads. While the team’s stars remain highly valuable, the cast of mediocre role players and lack of high-level organizational depth were exposed when injuries struck. While the Rangers aren’t going to start rebuilding after one bad season, the roster needs a lot of work this offseason, and they’re going to be forced to hope that a lot of under-performers and/or injured players make triumphant returns next year. A bounce back season is possible, but this team also needs some significant help, and might have to turn to the farm system to find some.
50+ FV Prospects
1. Joey Gallo, RF
Current Level/Age: AA/20.8, 6’5/205, L/R
Drafted: 39th overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Nevada HS by TEX for $2.25 million bonus
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 60/70, Raw Power: 80/80, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 70/70
Scouting Report: Gallo became famous to mainstream baseball fans for his power display in this summer’s Futures Game, where he showed off legit top-of-the-scale 80 raw power. Scouts I talked to say what they see day-to-day from Gallo in BP is more of a 70, which is more in line with what they think he could produce in the big leagues (70 game power translates to 30-35 homers annually).
Gallo slipped a bit in the draft out of high school and wasn’t a household name until this year because he’s big, his swing can get long and he’s had big contact issues his whole career. Gallo’s long limbs and selectively aggressive approach lead to big strikeout numbers, but he draws his share of walks. Scouts think he’ll be able to make enough contact to be a big league regular due to his ability to make adjustments and his coachability.
Gallo has cleaned up his approach a bit this season and is continuing to hit for power in games in AA at age 20. He isn’t a conventional premium athlete, but to still be playing third base in AA at his size with a huge arm and historic raw power shows you what kind of rare baseball talent he is.
Gallo plays third base now and has plenty of arm for the position, but his lack of foot speed and big frame make him a fringy defender and scouts say he’s clearly thinking too much. Multiple sources described how they’ve seen Gallo make all the necessary plays and do well under pressure, but double clutch and send a ball sailing wide on routine plays when he has time. Gallo could still be a third baseman, but most believe he’ll fit in right field best long-term and until Adrian Beltre leaves (under contract for 2015 with a 2016 vesting option that should trigger), there isn’t a spot for him at third base for him anyway.
Summation: Everything depends on how much contact he can make, as that is the key to the power showing up in games, because the speed/defense is never going to be much. 80 power guys almost always carve out some sort of role in the big leagues, particularly with good stats at the upper levels at a young age, but odds are it’s going to more of a solid everyday type than a star. The three outcomes from similar prospects in recent memory range from Dallas McPherson to Russell Branyan to Adam Dunn, with most scouts putting Gallo between Branyan and Dunn. One scout suggested Mark Reynolds, while physically different, might be the best comp for Gallo’s big league production.
Upside: .260/.350/.500 (30-35 HR), fringy 3B or solid RF
FV/Risk: 60, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
2. Alex Gonzalez, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.6, 6’2/195, R/R
Drafted: 23rd overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Oral Roberts by TEX for $2.215 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Gonzalez went from 3rd-4th round prospect entering his draft year at Oral Roberts to a legit 1st rounder by mid-season, with some buzz he could sneak into the top 10 on a discounted deal. His heavy sinker has led to solid performances in the minors thus far, and his stuff has ticked up a notch this season.
Gonzalez now sits 92-95, hitting 97 mph often and can spot and manipulate the pitch to sink, run or cut at 94 mph deep into starts. His plus mid-80’s slider is still the primary weapon and his changeup and fourth option curveball both flash average to slightly above at times. His command isn’t bad and should be average as well, giving Gonzalez #3 starter upside, but scouts complain that with his firm changeup, almost every pitch he throws is over 85 mph and often in the strike zone.
Summation: Throwing a three hard, big-league caliber pitches in the strike zone too often isn’t a bad primary issue to have. If Gonzalez can learn to mix up his approach a bit to include more chase pitches and curveballs, he could be ready for the big leagues as early as late 2015.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 Starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
3. Jake Thompson, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/20.6, 6’4/235, R/R
Drafted: 91st overall (2nd round) in 2012 out of TX high school by DET for $531,800 bonus
Fastball: 60/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Thompson slipped to the 2nd round out of high school because his stuff was mostly average, but would tick up at times. That was the book on him earlier this year at High-A Lakeland for Detroit, when he’d start games at 90-92, hitting 93-95 at times and then dip to 88-91 later in the game with a solid average three-pitch mix. In the Florida State League All-Star Game, Thompson sat 93-96 in a one-inning appearance and his slider was at least a 60, though it was a higher effort delivery he didn’t use when starting.
Thompson was dealt to the Rangers mid-season in the Joakim Soria trade and scouts that saw him in the Texas League have been reporting he’s 92-96 with a 60 slider that is sometimes a 70 in short stints. There’s an average change and impact stuff as a starter, but there’s also some effort to the delivery, so the fit may be in the bullpen. Given that Thompson appears to be the rare example (like Joba Chamberlain or Jonathan Papelbon) where the stuff ticks up a lot in relief, he may be best suited as a closer, but Texas would be foolish to not see if Thompson can be a 200 inning mid-rotation workhorse.
Summation: The Rangers are pleasantly surprised with the enhanced stuff Thompson started showing essentially right when they traded for him and they want to develop him as a starter. He’s on the fast track as a starter and if Texas gets back into the pennant race next season, it would be hard to not work him into the big leagues in short stints in 2015 before trying as a starter in 2016.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 Starter or Closer, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
4. Jorge Alfaro, C
Current Level/Age: AA/21.2, 6’2/185, R/R
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $1.3 million out of Colombia on 1/19/10
Hit: 20/45, Game Power: 45/55, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 45/45+, Field: 40/50+, Throw: 70/70
Scouting Report: Alfaro is another guy like Gallo in that he has big flashy tools that most fans normally associate with big league stars, but problems making contact that could hold it all back. While Gallo has taken a big step forward this year, Alfaro is making more steady progress, slowly tightening up his zone and finding the right amount of aggression at the plate.
His plus raw power may never fully play at the big league level, but since he can stick behind the plate, it won’t have to. Alfaro has the tools to be an above average defender and his plus-plus arm is a huge weapon, but he still needs some work on the finer points of catching, as his arm strength allows him to get away with stuff in the minors that he won’t be able to do in the majors.
Summation: Since the catching and hitting both still need some work, the Rangers should be cautious in promoting Alfaro, but the tools are here for an above average regular with the flashy tools fans love.
Upside: .260/.335/.460 (20 HR), solid defender with big arm
FV/Risk: 55, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
5. Nomar Mazara, RF
Current Level/Age: AA/19.3, 6’4/195, L/L
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $4.95 million out of Dominican Republic on 7/2/11
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 50/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: Mazara’s all-time record-smashing bonus in the last year before international bonus pools opened some eyes, both for the amount and the player. Some pointed to a hitchy swing with timing issues and that was still a concern after last year’s decent full-season debut at age 18 where Mazara hit .236 with 131 Ks in Low-A. This year, the 19-year-old Mazara made the necessary adjustments, getting his foot down faster which unlocked his bat speed and strength while giving him more time to make a decision on the pitch.
He has a classic right field profile with a plus arm and plus raw power and scouts now think he’ll get to all that power in games. Texas is showing a lot of confidence in him by skipping him over High-A earlier this month, promoting him from Low-A to AA at age 19. Speed and defense aren’t a big part of Mazara’s game but he’s got solid instincts and gives some effort on defense, though he can get out of the batter’s box a little slow.
Summation: The Rangers saw something in 15-year-old Mazara that other teams didn’t see and now they’re being rewarded with a fast-track power bat that may meet or even beat the big expectations brought on by his huge bonus. The projected hit tool could still go up another notch with a strong 2015.
Upside: .270/.350/.490 (25-30 HR), fringy defense & below average speed
FV/Risk: 55, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
6. Lewis Brinson, CF
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.3, 6’3/170, R/R
Drafted: 29th overall (1st round) in 2012 out of FL high school by TEX for $1.62 million bonus
Hit: 20/40, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 65/65, Field: 65/65, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Brinson is a lanky, super-athletic center fielder than has surprising raw power. He’s an easy plus runner and fielder with some scouts hanging a 70 on both tools and some putting a 60 on his arm as well. When four of the five raw tools are 60 or higher, the upside is enormous, but unfortunately Brinson’s long limbs and high/deep hand load cause real problems making contact.
Brinson’s swing was choppy in high school and the Rangers have smoothed it out to let his athleticism shine through. He also appears to be intentionally working on lowering his hand load in BP, but it still creeps up in games. Brinson’s plate discipline has slowly increased and it’s workable now, but he’s still getting by on raw ability at this point. The Rangers are known for targeting this type of hitter, so it’s not a coincidence you’re reading the same sorts of things about Gallo, Alfaro and Brinson. Brinson has the most work to do, but his speed will help prop his numbers up more than his pure hitting ability.
Summation: There are a number of examples of lower-end everyday center fielders with this type of skillset (Drew Stubbs, Cameron Maybin, etc.), so there’s hope the necessary adjustments can be made, with a guy like Mike Cameron what you’re hoping for and Carlos Gomez as the best case scenario. The makeup and coachability are there to make adjustments, but Brinson looks like more of a year-per-level, slower mover.
Upside: .260/.325/.440 (20 HR), easy plus defense & speed
FV/Risk: 50, Very High (5 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: High-A, 2015: High-A/AA, 2016: AA/AAA, 2017: AAA/MLB, 2018: MLB
7. Luke Jackson, RHP
Current Level/Age: AAA/23.0, 6’2/205, R/R
Drafted: 45th overall (sandwich round) in 2010 out of FL high school by TEX for $1.54 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/55, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Jackson is easy to like, as he can run it up to 98 mph, stays healthy and has made steady progress with his delivery and command to where most scouts think he has at least a 50% chance to be a starter in the big leagues. Unfortunately, Jackson hasn’t developed that plus secondary pitch, this causes him to throw his fastball a lot, and there’s still enough command issues that a late setup role still looks like it could be where he ends up.
Jackson’s delivery has improved this season and he has some of the starter traits you look for, but he still likely needs to spend all of 2015 in the minors. One scout compared him to Tanner Scheppers as a likely reliever that shows just enough that you want to start him, but loves to throw his fastball as hard as he can and relief makes the most sense.
Summation: Next year Jackson should get a last development opportunity to see if he deserves a big league rotation spot in 2016 or he should shift that 98 mph heater to the bullpen. Scouts have noted that Jackson has needed a longer adjustment period than his prospect peers at each new minor league level, so he may make more adjustments in 2015.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 Starter or Setup, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AAA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePh2fnp5_t4
8. Luis Ortiz, RHP
Current Level/Age: Low-A/18.9, 6’3/230, R/R
Drafted: 30th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of CA high school by TEX for $1.75 million bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50+
Scouting Report: Ortiz shed 30 pounds over his junior year in high school, then was the most consistent prep arm on the showcase circuit last summer, hitting 95 mph and flashing a plus slider with advanced feel at nearly every event. Things went a little sideways during the spring when he went on the shelf with forearm tightness, often a precursor to elbow problems.
When Ortiz came back to the mound, he pitched 3 times in relief in four days and scouts were worried this was headed in the wrong direction. Ortiz’s stuff came back to summer levels just before the draft and one club I talked to compared him to Jose Fernandez. That may be setting expectations too high, but Ortiz would’ve gone 10-20 picks higher if he had an uneventful spring, so this could be a steal for Texas.
Summation: Unlike his prep pitching peers, Ortiz has no physical projection left and his polished stuff/command could survive at higher levels, so a challenging 2015 assignment may be what he needs to see where he stands. I gave Ortiz a 50 FV because he’s thrown less than 50 innings since his forearm scare; with a solid and healthy 2015 he could jump up this list.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 Starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Low-A, 2015: Low-A/High-A, 2016: High-A/AA, 2017: AA/AAA, 2018: AAA/MLB, 2019: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6jb4WX6j04
9. Nick Williams, LF
Current Level/Age: AA/21.0, 6’3/195, L/L
Drafted: 93rd overall (2nd round) in 2012 out of TX high school by TEX for $500,000 bonus
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 55/55, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 45/45
Scouting Report: Williams had a lot of hype and Jason Heyward comps thrown at him as early as his sophomore year of high school, but he had a tough senior year. Williams has been a pleasant surprise since signing, cleaning up his swing and making tons of contact while being young for every level. Williams was promoted to AA this week, just before his 21st birthday (after hitting .292/.343/.493 in High-A), and he has lively tools, but scouts aren’t too bullish about his upside.
Williams has really good bat control and can square up almost anything (.296 BA in over 1000 PA), but he has such an undisciplined approach that he’s striking out nearly 30% of the time with walks rates below 5%. When you’re more talented that everyone else and pitchers are still making mistake pitches, you can get by with this approach, but past exampled show us it’s hard to change a bad approach this late in development.
Scouts have questioned Williams’ aptitude to make changes since back to high school and have routinely crushed him for lackadaisical defensive play and slow jumps out of the batter’s box. Williams’ plate discipline isn’t the only thing holding back his power from showing up in games, as his swing is geared for line drives up the middle.
When you combine his fringy defense, lack of focus, left field profile, unsustainable strikeout rates and contact-oriented approach, you suddenly have an athletic, left-handed hitting 20-year-old with great bat control and plus raw power that’s performing well and scouts aren’t that enthused.
Summation: All that said Williams still projects as a league average bat that could be at least average defensively and on the bases if he chooses to be, with the upside to become more. 50 FV makes sense here and there’s a good reason for the Rangers to promote him aggressively: to break his bad habits, he has to be challenged.
Upside: .270/.330/.440 (20 HR), average baserunning & defense
FV/Risk: 50, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd99tcjr-RE
10. Travis Demeritte, 2B
Current Level/Age: Low-A/20.0, 6’0/180, R/R
Drafted: 30th overall (1st round) in 2013 out of GA high school by TEX for $1.9 million bonus
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/50+, Raw Power: 50/50+, Speed: 50/50+, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Demeritte was a long-time standout in the renowned Atlanta-area East Cobb baseball program, often playing third base for their top travel team. Demeritte played shortstop for his high school team, but many scouts thought he would fit best at second base, where he had never played before. Demeritte has the tools to play the position and looks to be good enough to stick there long-term.
After drafting him, the Rangers compared Demeritte to Brandon Phillips (another Georgia prep product), though some teams doubted Demeritte had that kind of raw power. Demeritte has above average bat speed and feel to hit, but has focused more in pro ball on tapping into that raw power, evidenced by his .222 average, 24 homers and 35.3% strikeout rate. Scouts with history to his amateur days think there’s a balance to be struck and that both tools can be average or better, which would still fit nicely at the keystone.
Summation: It will be interesting to see how Demeritte adjusts next year after his 2014 season came straight out of the Dave Kingman handbook. He should head to High-A and will need to work more contact into his game.
Upside: .270/.340/.440 (15-20 HR), average defense & speed
FV/Risk: 50, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: High-A, 2015: AA, 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbVmwp5O-JM
11. Corey Knebel, RHP
Current Level/Age: AAA/22.7, 6’3/195, R/R
Drafted: 39thoverall (sandwich round) in 2013 out of Texas by DET for $1.43 million bonus
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/45, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Knebel drew a lot of attention in the months leading up to the 2013 Draft with two team suspensions, though scouts shrugged them off as a fiery kid being emotional (verbal fight with coach) and loyal (covering for a teammate in a drug test). He went a little higher than expected to Detroit, a team renowned for taking the hardest thrower available. Detroit shipped him to Texas earlier this year with RHP Jake Thompson in what may already be called the ill-fated Joakim Soria trade.
Knebel’s stuff is electric, with a fastball that sits 94-96 and regularly hits 98 and a curveball that regularly gets future plus grades from scouts. His delivery is funky, but it works for him, as Knebel commands his pitches better than you’d guess. His changeup and command are both below average, but his two primary pitches and deception are good enough that only slight adjustments should allow him to reach his closer upside.
Summation: It’s a higher effort, lesser command pure reliever, so we all know to temper our enthusiasm, but Knebel has already been solid in a limited big league look and should give Texas three free years (and three more affordable ones) of late-inning caliber performance.
LATE EDIT: The Rangers announced tonight that Knebel is shut down for the year with a sprained UCL that won’t require surgery. Often, these rehab situations lead to Tommy John surgery at some point in the future, but that’s the sort of thing you always know is possible with a young, hard-throwing reliever. I moved Knebel behind Demeritte and raised his risk rating after this news broke. You could argue I should move him down another spot or two, but we can’t just assume his elbow will pop because it’s a little weaker than we thought yesterday.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, Closer, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AAA/MLB, 2015: MLB
Video Notes: I’ll link to videos rather than embed them below to conserve space and I’ll reference the tools that are relevant to the evaluation in these shorter reports, but click on the player’s name to visit his profile page and see the full tool grades.
Thanks to Scott Lucas, Mike Rosenberg, Christopher Blessing and DCWildcat97 for some of the videos we embedded above, along with other YouTube users for some of the linked videos below. I’d like to think by this time next year that all of the embedded/linked videos will be from me or our writers, but we’ll have to dip into the freely available bin some this time around to give you the best sense of each prospect. Be sure to check out the other videos from these guys as they’re providing a great free service for prospect fans that we’re looking to build on here.
45 FV Prospects
12. Luis Sardinas, SS Video: The 21-year old shortstop has 60 or better speed/throw/field tools and has already had a cup of coffee, but very little power and not a ton of feel to hit. Scouts are confident he can be a good utility guy along the lines of Cesar Izturis and the Rangers think he still might hit enough to be an everyday guy.
13. Ti’Quan Forbes, 3B Video: Lanky 6’3/180 infielder was 2014 2nd rounder from Mississippi HS that is a 60 runner with a 60 arm and can probably stick at third base. He still hasn’t turned 18 yet and has great feel for a swing that works for him along with power that will be at least average when he fills out.
14. Keone Kela, RHP Video: 6’1/225 righty was low-profile 12th round pick from a Washington Juco in 2012 whose velo spiked after he signed and now sits 96-98 often hitting 100 mph. The command is below average but the curveball is above average at times and he may get a taste of the big leagues next year.
15. Ronald Guzman, 1B Video: 6’5/205 Dominican lefty bat signed for $3.45 million as a 16-year-old and held his own in Low-A at age 18 last year. He repeated the level this year and it’s been a disaster of a season without a clear problem to blame it on. Scouts still see things to like and a James Loney-like upside but with more power potential.
16. Josh Morgan, SS Video: A personal favorite from last year’s draft class got $800,000 out of a SoCal high school; he’s just good enough defensively to stick at short and doesn’t have much power or a beautiful swing, but makes a ton of hard contact. He has no margin for error but has performed everywhere, including in a short taste of pro ball (.456 OBP, 23 BB, 21 K).
17. Jerad Eickhoff, RHP Video: 6’4/240 righty that was 15th rounder from Illinois Juco has forced his way into prospect status at AA with 90-94 mph heater that’s hit 97. His curveball is a 55 and he flashes average command and starter traits with a fringy changeup and slider.
18. Yeyson Yrizarri, 3B Video: Another big July 2nd signing got $1.35 million last year and has shown improvement as a 17-year-old in Rookie ball. He splits shortstop with Forbes but both likely slide to third base down the road while Yrizarri has a flashy 70 arm, a loose swing and good bat speed.
40 FV Prospects
19. Jose Almonte, RF Video: Almonte got another big July 2nd bonus ($1.8 million) and hasn’t performed well in a taste of the AZL at age 17, but has flashed good traits. While he’s tentative at times, the instincts and coachability are good, he shows some feel to hit and the 55 raw power and arm make for a nice right field profile.
20. Jairo Beras, RF Video: Beras is most known for his $4.5 million bonus and age issues that led to that huge bonus. He’s now becoming known to scouts for an aloof demeanor and drawing physical comparison to a baby deer (he’s listed at 6’5/17. Beras has easy plus power projection and arm strength with the bat speed and bat control to make those matter, but his .245/.303/.349 full season debut with 27/124 BB/K ratio shows why he’s fallen behind the younger Mazara, who’s already in AA.
21. Ryan Rua, 3B Video: Low-profile 17th rounder from 2011 went from a non-prospect to prospect for some scouts during this season, where he’s hit .293/.365/.489 at AAA. It’s a corner utility/platoon upside with a 45 bat and 55 raw power that’s fringy at third base. One scout compared him to Steve Pearce and Rua could be ready to do that next season.
22. Andrew Faulkner, LHP Video: 6’3/180 lefty is starting in AA but has a big league future as Matt Thornton-type reliever. He sits 90-94 as a starter from a ¾ arm slot that creates deception and angles throwing across his body with just enough offspeed to keep hitters of the heater.
23. Alec Asher, RHP Video: Asher had some buzz early in the season as 3rd/4th starter as he hit 96 mph with a slider that flashed plus, but the stuff has backed up a lot and now some scouts have him as only an emergency call-up type. There’s some injury history and now a flat 89-92 mph fastball has been his only average pitch for the last few months.
24. Marcos Diplan, RHP Video: 5’11/160 Dominican righty signed for $1.3 million last July 2nd and has consistently showed a 90-92 mph fastball that’s hit 95, an above average curveball, an average change and some feel to pitch. A surprisingly high proportion of Dominican big league pitchers are 6’0 or shorter (Pedro Martinez, Johnny Cueto, Bartolo Colon, etc.), Diplan already has a quick arm that produces rotation-quality stuff and hasn’t even turned 18 yet.
25. Michael De Leon, SS Video: A lower profile signing from last year’s July 2nd class ($550,000 bonus) jumped straight to full-season ball at age 17 and hasn’t been that bad at the plate thanks to advanced bat-to-ball ability. He can play shortstop well, but is an average runner with ordinary tools that many scouts think is a second baseman long-term and his lack of power pegs him as more of a utility type.
26. Jose LeClerc, RHP Video: LeClerc is a live-bodied, athletic righty with a clean arm that sits 91-95 and has hit 97 mph with an above average slider and usable curveball and changeup. The command is still below average, but the strikeout and groundball rates are both strong and he’ll be 21 next year when he heads to AA.
27. Akeem Bostick, RHP Video: 6’4/180 righty is great athlete and was 2nd rounder out of South Carolina HS in 2013. He sits 90-94 and hits 97 mph with a loose, athletic delivery and some feel for command when he’s right, but is still inconsistent. His curveball flashed above average last year after signing, but some scouts put a 40 on it this year. He’s still learning a changeup and the finer points of pitching, but all the elements are here.
Cistulli’s Guy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQnN-qZ3_aw
Alex Claudio, LHP
Claudio made his made his major-league debut at the age of 22 years and 194 days — the 15th youngest player of the 167 to do that so far in 2014. Generally speaking, prospects who enter the majors with such youth are doing so because they’re either (a) regarded almost universally as top prospects or (b) a LOOGY. Claudio’s absence from McDaniel’s organizational list for the Rangers suggests that he doesn’t belong to the former category. And yet, even though he’s a left-handed pitcher, Claudio’s not a traditional LOOGY, either. Rather, his best pitch — or at least his most excellently strange one — is a changeup that sits in the mid- to high-60s, roughly 20 mph slower than his (rather slow) fastball. The changeup, of course, is typically utilized to neutralize opposite-handed batters. It follows, then, that if Claudio has an excellent changeup, that he’s also a candidate to neutralize platoon advantages.
In either case, here’s slow-motion footage of Claudio’s entirely slow changeup. Science indicates that, upon viewing it, one is able to travel backwards in time:
Others Of Note
Claudio was in the mix to be mentioned with some other players that just missed the list, but he seemed more like Carson’s type of guy than mine. Yohander Mendez (Video) is a projectable 6’4 lefty that shows some feel for three pitches and got $1.5 million in the 2011 July 2nd signing spree that included Mazara, Guzman and Odor. Frank Lopez is a smaller lefty with solid average stuff and some feel while Abel De Los Santos (Video), Scott Williams, Sam Wolff, Will Lamb, Spencer Patton (Video) and Matt West (Video) all came up as different sorts of power bullpen arms at different levels. Williams is the most interesting as a 2014 draftee that started pitching for the first time weeks before the draft and has been up to 97 mph with a knockout breaking ball.
Cody Buckel (Video) is a reclamation project showing some signs of turnaround, but is still having command issues. Ryan Cordell is a big premium athlete having unexpected success with the bat while Yimmelvyn Alonzo (yes, that’s his real name) is the best position player prospect on the Rangers’ two DSL squads. Finally, C Tomas Telis (contact-oriented catch and throw guy) 2B Odubel Herrera (2B only, 50 run, good bat speed and feel to hit Video) and SS Hanser Alberto (slick defensive shortstop, no bat/power) are all upper level big league inventory with standout skills that could fill a role at some point.
Most of what you need to know is at those two links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets Texas has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Colorado Rockies.
Big League Growth Assets
1. Jurickson Profar, SS, Age 21
2. Rougned Odor, 2B, Age 20
3. Martin Perez, LHP, Age 23
4. Michael Choice, RF, Age 24
5. Nick Tepesch, RHP, Age 25
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
The Rangers were supposed to be 2014 contenders, but a disastrous season has them at a crossroads. While the team’s stars remain highly valuable, the cast of mediocre role players and lack of high-level organizational depth were exposed when injuries struck. While the Rangers aren’t going to start rebuilding after one bad season, the roster needs a lot of work this offseason, and they’re going to be forced to hope that a lot of under-performers and/or injured players make triumphant returns next year. A bounce back season is possible, but this team also needs some significant help, and might have to turn to the farm system to find some.
50+ FV Prospects
1. Joey Gallo, RF
Current Level/Age: AA/20.8, 6’5/205, L/R
Drafted: 39th overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Nevada HS by TEX for $2.25 million bonus
Hit: 30/45, Game Power: 60/70, Raw Power: 80/80, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 70/70
Scouting Report: Gallo became famous to mainstream baseball fans for his power display in this summer’s Futures Game, where he showed off legit top-of-the-scale 80 raw power. Scouts I talked to say what they see day-to-day from Gallo in BP is more of a 70, which is more in line with what they think he could produce in the big leagues (70 game power translates to 30-35 homers annually).
Gallo slipped a bit in the draft out of high school and wasn’t a household name until this year because he’s big, his swing can get long and he’s had big contact issues his whole career. Gallo’s long limbs and selectively aggressive approach lead to big strikeout numbers, but he draws his share of walks. Scouts think he’ll be able to make enough contact to be a big league regular due to his ability to make adjustments and his coachability.
Gallo has cleaned up his approach a bit this season and is continuing to hit for power in games in AA at age 20. He isn’t a conventional premium athlete, but to still be playing third base in AA at his size with a huge arm and historic raw power shows you what kind of rare baseball talent he is.
Gallo plays third base now and has plenty of arm for the position, but his lack of foot speed and big frame make him a fringy defender and scouts say he’s clearly thinking too much. Multiple sources described how they’ve seen Gallo make all the necessary plays and do well under pressure, but double clutch and send a ball sailing wide on routine plays when he has time. Gallo could still be a third baseman, but most believe he’ll fit in right field best long-term and until Adrian Beltre leaves (under contract for 2015 with a 2016 vesting option that should trigger), there isn’t a spot for him at third base for him anyway.
Summation: Everything depends on how much contact he can make, as that is the key to the power showing up in games, because the speed/defense is never going to be much. 80 power guys almost always carve out some sort of role in the big leagues, particularly with good stats at the upper levels at a young age, but odds are it’s going to more of a solid everyday type than a star. The three outcomes from similar prospects in recent memory range from Dallas McPherson to Russell Branyan to Adam Dunn, with most scouts putting Gallo between Branyan and Dunn. One scout suggested Mark Reynolds, while physically different, might be the best comp for Gallo’s big league production.
Upside: .260/.350/.500 (30-35 HR), fringy 3B or solid RF
FV/Risk: 60, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
2. Alex Gonzalez, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.6, 6’2/195, R/R
Drafted: 23rd overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Oral Roberts by TEX for $2.215 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Gonzalez went from 3rd-4th round prospect entering his draft year at Oral Roberts to a legit 1st rounder by mid-season, with some buzz he could sneak into the top 10 on a discounted deal. His heavy sinker has led to solid performances in the minors thus far, and his stuff has ticked up a notch this season.
Gonzalez now sits 92-95, hitting 97 mph often and can spot and manipulate the pitch to sink, run or cut at 94 mph deep into starts. His plus mid-80’s slider is still the primary weapon and his changeup and fourth option curveball both flash average to slightly above at times. His command isn’t bad and should be average as well, giving Gonzalez #3 starter upside, but scouts complain that with his firm changeup, almost every pitch he throws is over 85 mph and often in the strike zone.
Summation: Throwing a three hard, big-league caliber pitches in the strike zone too often isn’t a bad primary issue to have. If Gonzalez can learn to mix up his approach a bit to include more chase pitches and curveballs, he could be ready for the big leagues as early as late 2015.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 Starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
3. Jake Thompson, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/20.6, 6’4/235, R/R
Drafted: 91st overall (2nd round) in 2012 out of TX high school by DET for $531,800 bonus
Fastball: 60/60, Slider: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Thompson slipped to the 2nd round out of high school because his stuff was mostly average, but would tick up at times. That was the book on him earlier this year at High-A Lakeland for Detroit, when he’d start games at 90-92, hitting 93-95 at times and then dip to 88-91 later in the game with a solid average three-pitch mix. In the Florida State League All-Star Game, Thompson sat 93-96 in a one-inning appearance and his slider was at least a 60, though it was a higher effort delivery he didn’t use when starting.
Thompson was dealt to the Rangers mid-season in the Joakim Soria trade and scouts that saw him in the Texas League have been reporting he’s 92-96 with a 60 slider that is sometimes a 70 in short stints. There’s an average change and impact stuff as a starter, but there’s also some effort to the delivery, so the fit may be in the bullpen. Given that Thompson appears to be the rare example (like Joba Chamberlain or Jonathan Papelbon) where the stuff ticks up a lot in relief, he may be best suited as a closer, but Texas would be foolish to not see if Thompson can be a 200 inning mid-rotation workhorse.
Summation: The Rangers are pleasantly surprised with the enhanced stuff Thompson started showing essentially right when they traded for him and they want to develop him as a starter. He’s on the fast track as a starter and if Texas gets back into the pennant race next season, it would be hard to not work him into the big leagues in short stints in 2015 before trying as a starter in 2016.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 Starter or Closer, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
4. Jorge Alfaro, C
Current Level/Age: AA/21.2, 6’2/185, R/R
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $1.3 million out of Colombia on 1/19/10
Hit: 20/45, Game Power: 45/55, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 45/45+, Field: 40/50+, Throw: 70/70
Scouting Report: Alfaro is another guy like Gallo in that he has big flashy tools that most fans normally associate with big league stars, but problems making contact that could hold it all back. While Gallo has taken a big step forward this year, Alfaro is making more steady progress, slowly tightening up his zone and finding the right amount of aggression at the plate.
His plus raw power may never fully play at the big league level, but since he can stick behind the plate, it won’t have to. Alfaro has the tools to be an above average defender and his plus-plus arm is a huge weapon, but he still needs some work on the finer points of catching, as his arm strength allows him to get away with stuff in the minors that he won’t be able to do in the majors.
Summation: Since the catching and hitting both still need some work, the Rangers should be cautious in promoting Alfaro, but the tools are here for an above average regular with the flashy tools fans love.
Upside: .260/.335/.460 (20 HR), solid defender with big arm
FV/Risk: 55, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
5. Nomar Mazara, RF
Current Level/Age: AA/19.3, 6’4/195, L/L
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $4.95 million out of Dominican Republic on 7/2/11
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 50/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Speed: 40/40, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: Mazara’s all-time record-smashing bonus in the last year before international bonus pools opened some eyes, both for the amount and the player. Some pointed to a hitchy swing with timing issues and that was still a concern after last year’s decent full-season debut at age 18 where Mazara hit .236 with 131 Ks in Low-A. This year, the 19-year-old Mazara made the necessary adjustments, getting his foot down faster which unlocked his bat speed and strength while giving him more time to make a decision on the pitch.
He has a classic right field profile with a plus arm and plus raw power and scouts now think he’ll get to all that power in games. Texas is showing a lot of confidence in him by skipping him over High-A earlier this month, promoting him from Low-A to AA at age 19. Speed and defense aren’t a big part of Mazara’s game but he’s got solid instincts and gives some effort on defense, though he can get out of the batter’s box a little slow.
Summation: The Rangers saw something in 15-year-old Mazara that other teams didn’t see and now they’re being rewarded with a fast-track power bat that may meet or even beat the big expectations brought on by his huge bonus. The projected hit tool could still go up another notch with a strong 2015.
Upside: .270/.350/.490 (25-30 HR), fringy defense & below average speed
FV/Risk: 55, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
6. Lewis Brinson, CF
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.3, 6’3/170, R/R
Drafted: 29th overall (1st round) in 2012 out of FL high school by TEX for $1.62 million bonus
Hit: 20/40, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 65/65, Field: 65/65, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Brinson is a lanky, super-athletic center fielder than has surprising raw power. He’s an easy plus runner and fielder with some scouts hanging a 70 on both tools and some putting a 60 on his arm as well. When four of the five raw tools are 60 or higher, the upside is enormous, but unfortunately Brinson’s long limbs and high/deep hand load cause real problems making contact.
Brinson’s swing was choppy in high school and the Rangers have smoothed it out to let his athleticism shine through. He also appears to be intentionally working on lowering his hand load in BP, but it still creeps up in games. Brinson’s plate discipline has slowly increased and it’s workable now, but he’s still getting by on raw ability at this point. The Rangers are known for targeting this type of hitter, so it’s not a coincidence you’re reading the same sorts of things about Gallo, Alfaro and Brinson. Brinson has the most work to do, but his speed will help prop his numbers up more than his pure hitting ability.
Summation: There are a number of examples of lower-end everyday center fielders with this type of skillset (Drew Stubbs, Cameron Maybin, etc.), so there’s hope the necessary adjustments can be made, with a guy like Mike Cameron what you’re hoping for and Carlos Gomez as the best case scenario. The makeup and coachability are there to make adjustments, but Brinson looks like more of a year-per-level, slower mover.
Upside: .260/.325/.440 (20 HR), easy plus defense & speed
FV/Risk: 50, Very High (5 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: High-A, 2015: High-A/AA, 2016: AA/AAA, 2017: AAA/MLB, 2018: MLB
7. Luke Jackson, RHP
Current Level/Age: AAA/23.0, 6’2/205, R/R
Drafted: 45th overall (sandwich round) in 2010 out of FL high school by TEX for $1.54 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/55, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Jackson is easy to like, as he can run it up to 98 mph, stays healthy and has made steady progress with his delivery and command to where most scouts think he has at least a 50% chance to be a starter in the big leagues. Unfortunately, Jackson hasn’t developed that plus secondary pitch, this causes him to throw his fastball a lot, and there’s still enough command issues that a late setup role still looks like it could be where he ends up.
Jackson’s delivery has improved this season and he has some of the starter traits you look for, but he still likely needs to spend all of 2015 in the minors. One scout compared him to Tanner Scheppers as a likely reliever that shows just enough that you want to start him, but loves to throw his fastball as hard as he can and relief makes the most sense.
Summation: Next year Jackson should get a last development opportunity to see if he deserves a big league rotation spot in 2016 or he should shift that 98 mph heater to the bullpen. Scouts have noted that Jackson has needed a longer adjustment period than his prospect peers at each new minor league level, so he may make more adjustments in 2015.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 Starter or Setup, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AAA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePh2fnp5_t4
8. Luis Ortiz, RHP
Current Level/Age: Low-A/18.9, 6’3/230, R/R
Drafted: 30th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of CA high school by TEX for $1.75 million bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50+
Scouting Report: Ortiz shed 30 pounds over his junior year in high school, then was the most consistent prep arm on the showcase circuit last summer, hitting 95 mph and flashing a plus slider with advanced feel at nearly every event. Things went a little sideways during the spring when he went on the shelf with forearm tightness, often a precursor to elbow problems.
When Ortiz came back to the mound, he pitched 3 times in relief in four days and scouts were worried this was headed in the wrong direction. Ortiz’s stuff came back to summer levels just before the draft and one club I talked to compared him to Jose Fernandez. That may be setting expectations too high, but Ortiz would’ve gone 10-20 picks higher if he had an uneventful spring, so this could be a steal for Texas.
Summation: Unlike his prep pitching peers, Ortiz has no physical projection left and his polished stuff/command could survive at higher levels, so a challenging 2015 assignment may be what he needs to see where he stands. I gave Ortiz a 50 FV because he’s thrown less than 50 innings since his forearm scare; with a solid and healthy 2015 he could jump up this list.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 Starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Low-A, 2015: Low-A/High-A, 2016: High-A/AA, 2017: AA/AAA, 2018: AAA/MLB, 2019: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6jb4WX6j04
9. Nick Williams, LF
Current Level/Age: AA/21.0, 6’3/195, L/L
Drafted: 93rd overall (2nd round) in 2012 out of TX high school by TEX for $500,000 bonus
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Raw Power: 60/60, Speed: 55/55, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 45/45
Scouting Report: Williams had a lot of hype and Jason Heyward comps thrown at him as early as his sophomore year of high school, but he had a tough senior year. Williams has been a pleasant surprise since signing, cleaning up his swing and making tons of contact while being young for every level. Williams was promoted to AA this week, just before his 21st birthday (after hitting .292/.343/.493 in High-A), and he has lively tools, but scouts aren’t too bullish about his upside.
Williams has really good bat control and can square up almost anything (.296 BA in over 1000 PA), but he has such an undisciplined approach that he’s striking out nearly 30% of the time with walks rates below 5%. When you’re more talented that everyone else and pitchers are still making mistake pitches, you can get by with this approach, but past exampled show us it’s hard to change a bad approach this late in development.
Scouts have questioned Williams’ aptitude to make changes since back to high school and have routinely crushed him for lackadaisical defensive play and slow jumps out of the batter’s box. Williams’ plate discipline isn’t the only thing holding back his power from showing up in games, as his swing is geared for line drives up the middle.
When you combine his fringy defense, lack of focus, left field profile, unsustainable strikeout rates and contact-oriented approach, you suddenly have an athletic, left-handed hitting 20-year-old with great bat control and plus raw power that’s performing well and scouts aren’t that enthused.
Summation: All that said Williams still projects as a league average bat that could be at least average defensively and on the bases if he chooses to be, with the upside to become more. 50 FV makes sense here and there’s a good reason for the Rangers to promote him aggressively: to break his bad habits, he has to be challenged.
Upside: .270/.330/.440 (20 HR), average baserunning & defense
FV/Risk: 50, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd99tcjr-RE
10. Travis Demeritte, 2B
Current Level/Age: Low-A/20.0, 6’0/180, R/R
Drafted: 30th overall (1st round) in 2013 out of GA high school by TEX for $1.9 million bonus
Hit: 20/50+, Game Power: 20/50+, Raw Power: 50/50+, Speed: 50/50+, Field: 45/50, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Demeritte was a long-time standout in the renowned Atlanta-area East Cobb baseball program, often playing third base for their top travel team. Demeritte played shortstop for his high school team, but many scouts thought he would fit best at second base, where he had never played before. Demeritte has the tools to play the position and looks to be good enough to stick there long-term.
After drafting him, the Rangers compared Demeritte to Brandon Phillips (another Georgia prep product), though some teams doubted Demeritte had that kind of raw power. Demeritte has above average bat speed and feel to hit, but has focused more in pro ball on tapping into that raw power, evidenced by his .222 average, 24 homers and 35.3% strikeout rate. Scouts with history to his amateur days think there’s a balance to be struck and that both tools can be average or better, which would still fit nicely at the keystone.
Summation: It will be interesting to see how Demeritte adjusts next year after his 2014 season came straight out of the Dave Kingman handbook. He should head to High-A and will need to work more contact into his game.
Upside: .270/.340/.440 (15-20 HR), average defense & speed
FV/Risk: 50, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: High-A, 2015: AA, 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbVmwp5O-JM
11. Corey Knebel, RHP
Current Level/Age: AAA/22.7, 6’3/195, R/R
Drafted: 39thoverall (sandwich round) in 2013 out of Texas by DET for $1.43 million bonus
Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/45, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Knebel drew a lot of attention in the months leading up to the 2013 Draft with two team suspensions, though scouts shrugged them off as a fiery kid being emotional (verbal fight with coach) and loyal (covering for a teammate in a drug test). He went a little higher than expected to Detroit, a team renowned for taking the hardest thrower available. Detroit shipped him to Texas earlier this year with RHP Jake Thompson in what may already be called the ill-fated Joakim Soria trade.
Knebel’s stuff is electric, with a fastball that sits 94-96 and regularly hits 98 and a curveball that regularly gets future plus grades from scouts. His delivery is funky, but it works for him, as Knebel commands his pitches better than you’d guess. His changeup and command are both below average, but his two primary pitches and deception are good enough that only slight adjustments should allow him to reach his closer upside.
Summation: It’s a higher effort, lesser command pure reliever, so we all know to temper our enthusiasm, but Knebel has already been solid in a limited big league look and should give Texas three free years (and three more affordable ones) of late-inning caliber performance.
LATE EDIT: The Rangers announced tonight that Knebel is shut down for the year with a sprained UCL that won’t require surgery. Often, these rehab situations lead to Tommy John surgery at some point in the future, but that’s the sort of thing you always know is possible with a young, hard-throwing reliever. I moved Knebel behind Demeritte and raised his risk rating after this news broke. You could argue I should move him down another spot or two, but we can’t just assume his elbow will pop because it’s a little weaker than we thought yesterday.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, Closer, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AAA/MLB, 2015: MLB
Video Notes: I’ll link to videos rather than embed them below to conserve space and I’ll reference the tools that are relevant to the evaluation in these shorter reports, but click on the player’s name to visit his profile page and see the full tool grades.
Thanks to Scott Lucas, Mike Rosenberg, Christopher Blessing and DCWildcat97 for some of the videos we embedded above, along with other YouTube users for some of the linked videos below. I’d like to think by this time next year that all of the embedded/linked videos will be from me or our writers, but we’ll have to dip into the freely available bin some this time around to give you the best sense of each prospect. Be sure to check out the other videos from these guys as they’re providing a great free service for prospect fans that we’re looking to build on here.
45 FV Prospects
12. Luis Sardinas, SS Video: The 21-year old shortstop has 60 or better speed/throw/field tools and has already had a cup of coffee, but very little power and not a ton of feel to hit. Scouts are confident he can be a good utility guy along the lines of Cesar Izturis and the Rangers think he still might hit enough to be an everyday guy.
13. Ti’Quan Forbes, 3B Video: Lanky 6’3/180 infielder was 2014 2nd rounder from Mississippi HS that is a 60 runner with a 60 arm and can probably stick at third base. He still hasn’t turned 18 yet and has great feel for a swing that works for him along with power that will be at least average when he fills out.
14. Keone Kela, RHP Video: 6’1/225 righty was low-profile 12th round pick from a Washington Juco in 2012 whose velo spiked after he signed and now sits 96-98 often hitting 100 mph. The command is below average but the curveball is above average at times and he may get a taste of the big leagues next year.
15. Ronald Guzman, 1B Video: 6’5/205 Dominican lefty bat signed for $3.45 million as a 16-year-old and held his own in Low-A at age 18 last year. He repeated the level this year and it’s been a disaster of a season without a clear problem to blame it on. Scouts still see things to like and a James Loney-like upside but with more power potential.
16. Josh Morgan, SS Video: A personal favorite from last year’s draft class got $800,000 out of a SoCal high school; he’s just good enough defensively to stick at short and doesn’t have much power or a beautiful swing, but makes a ton of hard contact. He has no margin for error but has performed everywhere, including in a short taste of pro ball (.456 OBP, 23 BB, 21 K).
17. Jerad Eickhoff, RHP Video: 6’4/240 righty that was 15th rounder from Illinois Juco has forced his way into prospect status at AA with 90-94 mph heater that’s hit 97. His curveball is a 55 and he flashes average command and starter traits with a fringy changeup and slider.
18. Yeyson Yrizarri, 3B Video: Another big July 2nd signing got $1.35 million last year and has shown improvement as a 17-year-old in Rookie ball. He splits shortstop with Forbes but both likely slide to third base down the road while Yrizarri has a flashy 70 arm, a loose swing and good bat speed.
40 FV Prospects
19. Jose Almonte, RF Video: Almonte got another big July 2nd bonus ($1.8 million) and hasn’t performed well in a taste of the AZL at age 17, but has flashed good traits. While he’s tentative at times, the instincts and coachability are good, he shows some feel to hit and the 55 raw power and arm make for a nice right field profile.
20. Jairo Beras, RF Video: Beras is most known for his $4.5 million bonus and age issues that led to that huge bonus. He’s now becoming known to scouts for an aloof demeanor and drawing physical comparison to a baby deer (he’s listed at 6’5/17
. Beras has easy plus power projection and arm strength with the bat speed and bat control to make those matter, but his .245/.303/.349 full season debut with 27/124 BB/K ratio shows why he’s fallen behind the younger Mazara, who’s already in AA.21. Ryan Rua, 3B Video: Low-profile 17th rounder from 2011 went from a non-prospect to prospect for some scouts during this season, where he’s hit .293/.365/.489 at AAA. It’s a corner utility/platoon upside with a 45 bat and 55 raw power that’s fringy at third base. One scout compared him to Steve Pearce and Rua could be ready to do that next season.
22. Andrew Faulkner, LHP Video: 6’3/180 lefty is starting in AA but has a big league future as Matt Thornton-type reliever. He sits 90-94 as a starter from a ¾ arm slot that creates deception and angles throwing across his body with just enough offspeed to keep hitters of the heater.
23. Alec Asher, RHP Video: Asher had some buzz early in the season as 3rd/4th starter as he hit 96 mph with a slider that flashed plus, but the stuff has backed up a lot and now some scouts have him as only an emergency call-up type. There’s some injury history and now a flat 89-92 mph fastball has been his only average pitch for the last few months.
24. Marcos Diplan, RHP Video: 5’11/160 Dominican righty signed for $1.3 million last July 2nd and has consistently showed a 90-92 mph fastball that’s hit 95, an above average curveball, an average change and some feel to pitch. A surprisingly high proportion of Dominican big league pitchers are 6’0 or shorter (Pedro Martinez, Johnny Cueto, Bartolo Colon, etc.), Diplan already has a quick arm that produces rotation-quality stuff and hasn’t even turned 18 yet.
25. Michael De Leon, SS Video: A lower profile signing from last year’s July 2nd class ($550,000 bonus) jumped straight to full-season ball at age 17 and hasn’t been that bad at the plate thanks to advanced bat-to-ball ability. He can play shortstop well, but is an average runner with ordinary tools that many scouts think is a second baseman long-term and his lack of power pegs him as more of a utility type.
26. Jose LeClerc, RHP Video: LeClerc is a live-bodied, athletic righty with a clean arm that sits 91-95 and has hit 97 mph with an above average slider and usable curveball and changeup. The command is still below average, but the strikeout and groundball rates are both strong and he’ll be 21 next year when he heads to AA.
27. Akeem Bostick, RHP Video: 6’4/180 righty is great athlete and was 2nd rounder out of South Carolina HS in 2013. He sits 90-94 and hits 97 mph with a loose, athletic delivery and some feel for command when he’s right, but is still inconsistent. His curveball flashed above average last year after signing, but some scouts put a 40 on it this year. He’s still learning a changeup and the finer points of pitching, but all the elements are here.
Cistulli’s Guy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQnN-qZ3_aw
Alex Claudio, LHP
Claudio made his made his major-league debut at the age of 22 years and 194 days — the 15th youngest player of the 167 to do that so far in 2014. Generally speaking, prospects who enter the majors with such youth are doing so because they’re either (a) regarded almost universally as top prospects or (b) a LOOGY. Claudio’s absence from McDaniel’s organizational list for the Rangers suggests that he doesn’t belong to the former category. And yet, even though he’s a left-handed pitcher, Claudio’s not a traditional LOOGY, either. Rather, his best pitch — or at least his most excellently strange one — is a changeup that sits in the mid- to high-60s, roughly 20 mph slower than his (rather slow) fastball. The changeup, of course, is typically utilized to neutralize opposite-handed batters. It follows, then, that if Claudio has an excellent changeup, that he’s also a candidate to neutralize platoon advantages.
In either case, here’s slow-motion footage of Claudio’s entirely slow changeup. Science indicates that, upon viewing it, one is able to travel backwards in time:
Others Of Note
Claudio was in the mix to be mentioned with some other players that just missed the list, but he seemed more like Carson’s type of guy than mine. Yohander Mendez (Video) is a projectable 6’4 lefty that shows some feel for three pitches and got $1.5 million in the 2011 July 2nd signing spree that included Mazara, Guzman and Odor. Frank Lopez is a smaller lefty with solid average stuff and some feel while Abel De Los Santos (Video), Scott Williams, Sam Wolff, Will Lamb, Spencer Patton (Video) and Matt West (Video) all came up as different sorts of power bullpen arms at different levels. Williams is the most interesting as a 2014 draftee that started pitching for the first time weeks before the draft and has been up to 97 mph with a knockout breaking ball.
Cody Buckel (Video) is a reclamation project showing some signs of turnaround, but is still having command issues. Ryan Cordell is a big premium athlete having unexpected success with the bat while Yimmelvyn Alonzo (yes, that’s his real name) is the best position player prospect on the Rangers’ two DSL squads. Finally, C Tomas Telis (contact-oriented catch and throw guy) 2B Odubel Herrera (2B only, 50 run, good bat speed and feel to hit Video) and SS Hanser Alberto (slick defensive shortstop, no bat/power) are all upper level big league inventory with standout skills that could fill a role at some point.
Evaluating the Prospects: Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies have a solid system with some depth and some high-end talent spread across different levels. There’s been some chatter there may be a regime change in Denver and while altitude creates some unique problems for executives, the farm is in a good position to produce some talent in the coming years. Here’s the primer for this series and here’s a disclaimer about how none of us really know anything, perfect to read before I attempt to tell you everything about the Rockies farm system. Here’s the Rangers list, the first in the series.
Most of what you need to know is at those links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets Colorado has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Big League Growth Assets
1. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Age 23
2. Corey Dickerson, LF, Age 25
3. Wilin Rosario, C, Age 25
4. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Age 23
5. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Age 23
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
Perpetually caught between rebuilding and contending, the Rockies tried to win this year, but have seen the season the season go wrong in nearly every way possible. Troy Tulowitzki was great until he got hurt, again, while Carlos Gonzalez was also injured but not also great. Rather than flip assets like Jorge de la Rosa at the trade deadline, the team did nothing, and appear to remain directionless. This is an organization with enough talent to talk itself out of rebuilding but not enough talent to win. Perhaps it’s time for a leader who will take the team down one of those two paths, rather than eternally standing at the fork.
50+ FV Prospects
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMCeiC_xf3g
1. Jon Gray, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.8, 6’4/235, R/R
Drafted: 3rd overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Oklahoma by COL for $4.8 million bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Gray created tons of buzz midway through the 2013 spring coming from out of nowhere to hit 100 mph often, with a plus slider. I was lower on him than most, ranking him behind Mark Appel and Kris Bryant before the draft for a few reasons. It was new velocity we hadn’t seen before and we didn’t know if his body could handle (it has so far), it showed up on six days rest which would be reduced by 2 days each outing in pro ball, and if his arm speed slowed (as it does over time for every pitcher) so much of his value was tied to arm speed (his command was/is below average) that it would take all of his stuff down a notch and reduce the #1 starter upside people were putting on him.
Since signing, Gray’s velocity has been down some, mostly sitting 91-94 and hitting 95 mph but Rockies sources say this is intentional and he’s working on some things (they already smoothed out his delivery), which scouts assumed after Gray hit 98 mph in a short All-Star Game appearance. I think he’ll settle at 92-94 with more movement and command, the slider is still plus and the changeup has it’s moments. Scouts are a little concerned that Gray is a below average athlete and the command still isn’t quite there yet. Since the stuff is so good, that lesser command would just make him a 3/4 starter rather than a 2/3.
Summation: I’m splitting the difference on #2 and #4 starter reports from scouts, basically sticking with my pre-draft evaluation. If you’re a Rockies fan disappointed by the #3 starter projection, one year of that is worth at least 3 times his signing bonus on the open market, so that would still be a wild success.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 Starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
https://vimeo.com/70736062
2. Eddie Butler, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/23.4, 6’2/180, B/R
Drafted: 46th overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Radford by COL for $1.0 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50
Scouting Report: Butler’s stuff took a step forward since being drafted, with his velocity settling a tick or two higher (93-95, touching 97 mph consistently) than it did and his off-speed stuff jumping a notch as well. He’s in a dead heat with Gray to be #1 on this list, but the separator for scouts is that they are worried about Butler’s durability. He’s had a lot of minor dings and there’s doubt he can hold up for 200 innings, though everything is there for him to be a starter. If he has to move to the bullpen he could be a closer, with a fastball that’s been up to 99 mph and a knockout changeup, but Colorado will give him every chance to prove he can stay in the rotation. The slider has been a 55 in the past but scouts have said it’s only been average this year.
Summation: He’s either a #3 starter or a closer and he’s pretty close to being able to contribute, so there isn’t much else to do but see what he does in a full season in Denver.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3 Starter/Closer, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyTsnNR9uEA
3. David Dahl, CF
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.4, 6’2/195, L/R
Drafted: 10th overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Alabama HS by COL for $2.6 million bonus
Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: I was a huge Dahl fan out of high school, but his stock dipped in 2012 and 2013 with some maturity issues that caused the Rockies to issue a suspension and limit his exposure to full-season ball until this season. This year, Dahl shot through Low-A at age 21 to the High-A Cal League, where he’s still getting acclimated. Scouts never really doubted Dahl’s ability to hit and one said he almost put a 7 on the bat after seeing him this year and that same scout put a 5 on the power despite a line drive approach. It may take a few years but advanced, talented hitters with a natural opposite field stroke will often will outhit their raw power at maturity (even with a line drive approach) due to how much hard contact they make. The offensive upside combined with plus speed and a center field profile give Dahl the upside to be a star, but scouts would like to see more than one year in full-season leagues before they go all-in.
Summation: I’m betting Dahl ends up in my top 50 prospects this offseason and he’s a candidate to move much higher after next season with a likely return engagement to the Cal League in 2015.
Upside: .290/.350/.460 (15-20 HR), average defense & plus speed
FV/Risk: 55, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: High-A, 2015: High-A/AA, 2016: AA/AAA, 2017: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bk62Zt35MTI
4. Ryan McMahon, 3B
Current Level/Age: Low-A/19.7, 6’2/185, L/R
Drafted: 42nd overall (2nd round) in 2013 out of California HS by COL for $1.32 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 40/60, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Some teams were skeptical before the draft of McMahon’s ability to corral his long limbs to make enough contact long-term, but the scouts I talked to were all-in after an impressive full-season debut. One scout argued McMahon could be the Rockies #1 prospect right now and with Gray/Butler possibly graduating next year and McMahon heading to the Cal League in 2015, that may happen in 2015. He strikes out more than you’d like to see, but McMahon is just 19 and was also a star quarterback in high school (another example of a Rockies draft pick with that on his resume), so there’s still a need for reps. McMahon projects for plus raw power that scouts now think he can get to in games and, while he isn’t there right now, most believe with some work he will be able to stick at third base long-term.
Summation: McMahon, like Tapia below, may well bump move his Future Value up or down a notch with a trip to the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2015.
Upside: .275/.350/.480 (22-25 HR) & average defense
FV/Risk: 55, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Low-A, 2015: High-A, 2016: AA, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgEgNtCndhg
5. Kyle Freeland, LHP
Current Level/Age: Low-A/21.3, 6’3/170, L/L
Drafted: 8th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of Evansville by COL for $2.3 million bonus
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/55
Scouting Report: Freeland is a tough evaluation: his fastball and slider were both flashing plus by the end of the year (the above video is from a solid but unspectacular early-season outing) but injury concerns will follow him for years. He had elbow surgery in 2007 as a high school freshman and some clubs were still concerned about the medical, with some a couple teams late in the first round telling me they probably wouldn’t take him if he slipped to them due to concerns about his less-than-smooth mechanics contributing to a future injury. Teams were more concerned about Chris Sale‘s mechanics when he was drafted, so it could end up being nothing and Freeland has been healthy for 7 years; the Rockies told me they aren’t concerned. I rounded down on the fastball and slider grade (both flash plus) since I think those pitches settle there in a starter role long-term. Freeland shows an advanced ability to command his above average stuff even with some effort to the delivery, so it’s hard to bet against him and he could shoot through the system in some scenarios, reaching his #3 starter upside in short order.
Summation: I’m taking the cautious, skeptical position on Freeland and hope I’m wrong; there’s enough unique traits here that point to him being an exception rather than the rule with young arms.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #3/4 Starter, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Low-A, 2015: High-A, 2016: AA, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rC1XDOJkYaY
Video credit to Mike Newman
6. Raimel Tapia, CF
Current Level/Age: Low-A/20.5, 6’2/160, L/L
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $175,000 out of Dominican Republic on 11/29/10
Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 30/40, Raw Power: 35/45, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/55, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Tapia gets wide-ranging review from scouts, with some crushing him for an unusual swing and skinny frame, while others point to his elite bat control and performance (.342/.392/.503 in over 700 PA in domestic leagues). One scout said Tapia’s defensive reads were questionable and that his power wouldn’t profile in right field. Another scout gave a low-end comparison of Jon Jay, as a non-traditional outfielder that can play all three positions, doesn’t have much power but hits enough that you find a spot for him. The consensus is that this kid can hit despite sometimes funky mechanics and he has enough tools to be useful in some kind of everyday role.
Summation: With a trip to the hitter-friendly Cal League next year, a 50 Future Value will likely go up or down a notch depending on how he responds to big expectations.
Upside: .290/.350/.430 (8-12 HR), average defense & plus speed
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Low-A, 2015: High-A, 2016: AA, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB9rqcsVzpw
7. Tyler Anderson, LHP
Current Level/Age: AA/24.6, 6’4/215, L/L
Drafted: 20th overall (1st round) in 2011 out of Oregon by COL for $1.4 million bonus
Fastball: 50/50+, Slider: 45/45+, Curveball: 40/45, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50+
Scouting Report: The big lefty makes you pause due to the funky delivery, but it creates deception and he’s a good enough athlete to make it work for him command-wise. The stuff is at least as good as in college if not a little better: Anderson hit 95 mph earlier this month, but sits 89-92 mostly. His changeup is a weapon to get swings and misses but the question is on the breaking ball. He tinkers with a slider, curveball and cutter at times, but should be able to settle with at least one fringy/useable pitch to keep hitters off his best two pitches.
Summation: It’s a relatively low-risk #4 starter that could have a long big league career and it could start as soon as late 2015.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 Starter, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA, 2016: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ax80j-T3ZQ0
8. Forrest Wall, 2B
Current Level/Age: Rookie/18.8, 6’0/175, L/R
Drafted: 35th overall (sandwich round) in 2014 out of FL high school by COL for $2.0 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 35/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Speed: 65/65, Field: 45/50, Throw: 45/45
Scouting Report: I was higher on Wall in this year’s draft than anyone I talked to (longer explanation) basically because he was being knocked for being a prep second baseman, though he’s an exception to the warranted rule to not pick one in the first round. Wall had a serious shoulder injury that limited his arm strength (which is now passable) and confidence to air it out while most prep second baseman play there due to a lack of athleticism or deficient baseball skills; Wall was there only because of an injury. He’s a plus to plus-plus runner with fringy raw power, can stick at second base and was arguably the best prep bat in the 2014 draft class. He’s raking in his pro debut and the Rockies have him on a throwing program to work on his arm strength.
Summation: At least league average offense and defense at an up-the middle position and plus base-running value is an everyday player and I bet if he was a center fielder (which he could be, but 2B is more valuable) Wall would’ve gone at least 10 picks higher than he did. I don’t know how this one will turn out, but I’m betting on this kid to beat expectations.
Upside: .280/.350/.430 (12-15 HR), average defense & plus speed
FV/Risk: 50, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Rookie, 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A, 2017: AA, 2018: AAA, 2019: MLB
45 FV Prospects
9. Trevor Story, SS Video: Story is the best of the four fringy middle infielders in this group as he’s an athlete with the ability to stick at shortstop that looked like an everyday guy at one point, but tinkering with his swing has contributed to the bat stalling out a bit at the upper levels. One scout questioned his ability to recognize spin and the consensus is there isn’t enough here offensively for more than a utility guy.
10. Rosell Herrera, 3B Video: Herrera’s stock has fallen with a tough 2014 in the hitter-friendly Cal League due to a nagging wrist injury. It will be looked at again once the season ends to determine how serious of a problem it is going forward. Most scouts have Herrera moving to third base and more than a few called him soft, so while the tools are there for an everyday player and he raked last year at age 20 in Low-A, the arrow is pointing down until Herrera looks more like the 2013 version.
11. Jose Briceno, C Video: Briceno is a young catcher still working on the finer points defensively, but the athleticism and tools are there to stick behind the plate and the arm is plus. The raw power is average and there’s just enough feel to hit that he could get to it in games. It’s a longshot but potential everyday catchers don’t grow on trees, so scouts are more than willing to give Briceno a chance.
12. Taylor Featherston, SS Video: Featherston is a similar player to Adames, but scouts are more enthusiastic about Featherston’s chance to reach his upside. He’s good enough at shortstop to play there in the big leagues but not everyday, which is fine but the bat isn’t a standout and he fits as a utility type. Featherston is a better athlete with a lot more energy than Adames and better feel to hit, with one scout mentioning Adam Rosales as a similar player.
13. Cristhian Adames, SS Video: Adames is a player that I didn’t love last year in the Arizona Fall League and scouts keep finding excuses to move down this list, but he is a switch-hitting shortstop that’s hitting in AAA, so he still belong in this group. Scouts aren’t convinced he’s more than an okay utility player as he’s a low-energy guy that can pick it but doesn’t have elite range or speed and projects to be a below average hitter without much game power.
40 FV Prospects
14. Tom Murphy, C Video: Murphy could be higher on this list with fringe everyday tools, but has been banged up all year and scouts haven’t been able to see him play behind the plate recently. He’s almost all the way back to catching, but has struggled at the plate this year and scouts haven’t been too enthusiastic in their reviews. He’ll be 24 next year and is in the upper levels, so a strong start to 2015 could move him up this list about 5 spots.
15. Kyle Parker, 1B Video: Parker is another in a long line of Rockies’ quarterback picks (he started at Clemson) that includes Todd Helton, Seth Smith and Russell Wilson. Parker signed for $1.4 million as a late first rounder in 2010 and has hit well at every level, but scouts are skeptical this will continue at the big league level. There’s some swing and miss to his game that scouts think will increase against top-end pitching, holding back in above average raw power while his defensive indifference limits him to first base, likely in a platoon role.
16. Pedro Gonzalez, 3B Video: The Rockies top signing this July 2nd ($1.3 million) is the rare Dominican-signed fluent English speaker and he also has a unique frame, at least 6’4 and maybe 6’5, but at a rail-thin 160 pounds. He’s good at shortstop now and makes a lot of contact despite his age (16) and size due to his rare body control; scouts mention Manny Machado and Alex Rios as body comps. Gonzalez likely ends up at third base and develops at least average raw power, but, for now, he’s more of a contact hitter; if/when/how he handles added weight will dictate his future.
17. Alex Balog, RHP Video: Balog was a bit of an enigma his draft year, with scouts saying he got as high at 99 mph and sat 94-97 for stretches while he’d sit 89-92 for other outings. The Rockies got the 6’5/210 righty in the 2nd round last year and he’s showing back-end rotation potential in Low-A this year. He’ll sit 90-93 and hit 94 mph with a slider and changeup that are both a bit above average at times, but there’s still some adjustments that need to be made.
18. Ryan Castellani, RHP Video: Castellani was one of my favorite projection arms in the 2014 draft and the Rockies agreed, giving him $1.1 million in the 2nd round. The 6’4/190 righty was into the 90’s as a prep sophomore with projection and an easy delivery; he’s still around 90 now, but hit 95 mph early in his draft year. The separator here is a three-pitch mix and command that have all been above average at times and the body/athleticism that scouts can bet on.
19. Emerson Jimenez, SS Video: Jimenez is a projection play as a 6’1/160 shortstop holding his own at age 19 in Low-A despite a lack of strength. He’s good enough right now to stick at short, but he needs work offensively and defensively with mechanics and details. If he can add weight will dictate if he can make the improvements necessary to become a big league asset.
20. Sam Moll, LHP Video: 5’10/185 lefty has been moved to relief and hasn’t made it to a full-season league yet at age 22 with an elbow injury that slowed him out of spring training. Moll sits 93-95 with an above average curveball in short stints and while the plane isn’t there and the command isn’t great, it will fit in the late innings with some adjustments.
21. Dom Nunez, C Video: From powerhouse Sacramento-area high school that’s had Derek Hill, J.D. Davis and Rowdy Tellez go high in the last two drafts, Nunez moved behind the plate as a prep senior as the ideal fit for his tools. A 6th rounder in 2013 that got an over-slot $800,000, Nunez has a line drive bat with below-average power and is coming along nicely behind the plate with the tools to stick if the aptitude is there.
22. Carlos Estevez, RHP Video: 6’4/210 Dominican righty is 21 and sits 94-98 mph in short stints out of the bullpen. He isn’t just an arm strength guy, as the curveball is solid-average at times and he’ll use a slider and changeup. Estevez is still working on consistent mechanics/command, but there’s late-inning potential if the feel develops. Also worth noting he has the same name as someone noted for winning.
23. Matt Carasiti, RHP Video: 2012 6th rounder out of St. John’s has lived up to amateur scouting report of a power arm with three pitches but with the feel and consistency that fits better in the bullpen, where he moved this year in Low-A. He’ll sit 90-94 and hit 95 with an above average slider and solid-average changeup that could work in a 7th inning or long man role if the command progresses.
24. Antonio Senzatela, RHP Video: 19-year-old Venezuelan righty works 90-94 and hits 96 but has a limited upside with below average off-speed and a 6’1/180 frame. The delivery and command are good and he’s young enough that the stuff could improve; he could turn into a back-end type or spot starter with small improvements.
25. Correlle Prime, 1B Video: 6’5/200 power hitter has above average raw power to profile at first base if he hits, but some scouts doubted that out of high school ($125,000 bonus as 12th rounder in 2012) given his size. He’s hit at least .280 everywhere he’s gone and jacked 21 homers this year as a 20-year-old getting his first taste of full-season ball in Low-A. It’s probably bench/platoon bat upside as a big R/R first baseman, but he’s hitting and the headline puns will be easy.
Cistulli’s Guy
Mike Tauchman, OF
Following a late-June promotion to High-A Modesto, the 23-year-old Tauchman hit the first four home runs of his professional career over a span of just 46 plate appearances — a promising development, that, from a prospect who’d previously exhibited an advanced approach but little power. Unfortunately, in the 160 plate appearances which have proceeded that brief interval, Tauchman has recorded zero home runs. Still, he’s not without his virtues — especially relative to his pedigree. A 10th-round pick out of Bradley last year by the Rockies, Tauchman has posted promising walk and strikeout rates of 12.5% and 18.4%, respectively, while also producing a stolen-base record of 34-for-44 (77%) in just 119 professional games. While having been deployed mainly as a corner outfielder, he’s also made starts at center and, given his speed, it’s not unreasonable to suppose that he could handle the position occasionally.
A dearth of footage exists where Tauchman is concerned. Here, for example, is probably the best of it — a brief excerpt from three-year-old amateur video of Tauchman making one catch for Bradley:
Others Of Note
There’s the usual handful of hard-throwing relievers to note, with righty Scott Oberg the best and closest to the big leagues of the bunch. Rayan Gonzalez is mostly velocity and Konner Wade is a fringy stuff guy with moxie that could carve out a long-man role. Danny Winkler is a fringy stuff, huge deception spot starter type in the upper levels, but his ugly delivery contributed to this year’s Tommy John surgery. Righty Chris Martin is a 6’8 reliever on the 40-man (when he isn’t de-Gooping himself) with a plus fastball and cutter to go with big plane. Righty Johendi Jiminian is a projectable Dominican with a fastball/changeup combo that flash above average but a lot or work to do with delivery/feel while lefty Sam Howard was a recent college pick with average stuff that could turn into a 5th starter.
As for the bats, Jordan Patterson is a 6’4/215 athlete with a 4th outfielder profile if he can hit enough and Pat Valaika is another in a long family line of solid middle infield utility types. Dominican SS Carlos Herrera was a seven figure July 2nd signing last year that’s still on the island with some hamstring troubles while Venezuelan CF Omar Carrizales is 19 and a plus runner with contact skills. 3B Kevin Padlo was one of two interesting prep bat from last June’s draft: he’s a good athlete and makes the most of low-end everyday third base tools (Video) while SS Max George, a polished middle infielder with feel to hit (Video) joins Padlo with a chance to be on the list next year.
Most of what you need to know is at those links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets Colorado has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Big League Growth Assets
1. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Age 23
2. Corey Dickerson, LF, Age 25
3. Wilin Rosario, C, Age 25
4. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Age 23
5. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Age 23
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
Perpetually caught between rebuilding and contending, the Rockies tried to win this year, but have seen the season the season go wrong in nearly every way possible. Troy Tulowitzki was great until he got hurt, again, while Carlos Gonzalez was also injured but not also great. Rather than flip assets like Jorge de la Rosa at the trade deadline, the team did nothing, and appear to remain directionless. This is an organization with enough talent to talk itself out of rebuilding but not enough talent to win. Perhaps it’s time for a leader who will take the team down one of those two paths, rather than eternally standing at the fork.
50+ FV Prospects
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMCeiC_xf3g
1. Jon Gray, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.8, 6’4/235, R/R
Drafted: 3rd overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Oklahoma by COL for $4.8 million bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Gray created tons of buzz midway through the 2013 spring coming from out of nowhere to hit 100 mph often, with a plus slider. I was lower on him than most, ranking him behind Mark Appel and Kris Bryant before the draft for a few reasons. It was new velocity we hadn’t seen before and we didn’t know if his body could handle (it has so far), it showed up on six days rest which would be reduced by 2 days each outing in pro ball, and if his arm speed slowed (as it does over time for every pitcher) so much of his value was tied to arm speed (his command was/is below average) that it would take all of his stuff down a notch and reduce the #1 starter upside people were putting on him.
Since signing, Gray’s velocity has been down some, mostly sitting 91-94 and hitting 95 mph but Rockies sources say this is intentional and he’s working on some things (they already smoothed out his delivery), which scouts assumed after Gray hit 98 mph in a short All-Star Game appearance. I think he’ll settle at 92-94 with more movement and command, the slider is still plus and the changeup has it’s moments. Scouts are a little concerned that Gray is a below average athlete and the command still isn’t quite there yet. Since the stuff is so good, that lesser command would just make him a 3/4 starter rather than a 2/3.
Summation: I’m splitting the difference on #2 and #4 starter reports from scouts, basically sticking with my pre-draft evaluation. If you’re a Rockies fan disappointed by the #3 starter projection, one year of that is worth at least 3 times his signing bonus on the open market, so that would still be a wild success.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 Starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
https://vimeo.com/70736062
2. Eddie Butler, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/23.4, 6’2/180, B/R
Drafted: 46th overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Radford by COL for $1.0 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 45/50, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50
Scouting Report: Butler’s stuff took a step forward since being drafted, with his velocity settling a tick or two higher (93-95, touching 97 mph consistently) than it did and his off-speed stuff jumping a notch as well. He’s in a dead heat with Gray to be #1 on this list, but the separator for scouts is that they are worried about Butler’s durability. He’s had a lot of minor dings and there’s doubt he can hold up for 200 innings, though everything is there for him to be a starter. If he has to move to the bullpen he could be a closer, with a fastball that’s been up to 99 mph and a knockout changeup, but Colorado will give him every chance to prove he can stay in the rotation. The slider has been a 55 in the past but scouts have said it’s only been average this year.
Summation: He’s either a #3 starter or a closer and he’s pretty close to being able to contribute, so there isn’t much else to do but see what he does in a full season in Denver.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3 Starter/Closer, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyTsnNR9uEA
3. David Dahl, CF
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.4, 6’2/195, L/R
Drafted: 10th overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Alabama HS by COL for $2.6 million bonus
Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 40/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: I was a huge Dahl fan out of high school, but his stock dipped in 2012 and 2013 with some maturity issues that caused the Rockies to issue a suspension and limit his exposure to full-season ball until this season. This year, Dahl shot through Low-A at age 21 to the High-A Cal League, where he’s still getting acclimated. Scouts never really doubted Dahl’s ability to hit and one said he almost put a 7 on the bat after seeing him this year and that same scout put a 5 on the power despite a line drive approach. It may take a few years but advanced, talented hitters with a natural opposite field stroke will often will outhit their raw power at maturity (even with a line drive approach) due to how much hard contact they make. The offensive upside combined with plus speed and a center field profile give Dahl the upside to be a star, but scouts would like to see more than one year in full-season leagues before they go all-in.
Summation: I’m betting Dahl ends up in my top 50 prospects this offseason and he’s a candidate to move much higher after next season with a likely return engagement to the Cal League in 2015.
Upside: .290/.350/.460 (15-20 HR), average defense & plus speed
FV/Risk: 55, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: High-A, 2015: High-A/AA, 2016: AA/AAA, 2017: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bk62Zt35MTI
4. Ryan McMahon, 3B
Current Level/Age: Low-A/19.7, 6’2/185, L/R
Drafted: 42nd overall (2nd round) in 2013 out of California HS by COL for $1.32 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 40/60, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 45/45, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Some teams were skeptical before the draft of McMahon’s ability to corral his long limbs to make enough contact long-term, but the scouts I talked to were all-in after an impressive full-season debut. One scout argued McMahon could be the Rockies #1 prospect right now and with Gray/Butler possibly graduating next year and McMahon heading to the Cal League in 2015, that may happen in 2015. He strikes out more than you’d like to see, but McMahon is just 19 and was also a star quarterback in high school (another example of a Rockies draft pick with that on his resume), so there’s still a need for reps. McMahon projects for plus raw power that scouts now think he can get to in games and, while he isn’t there right now, most believe with some work he will be able to stick at third base long-term.
Summation: McMahon, like Tapia below, may well bump move his Future Value up or down a notch with a trip to the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2015.
Upside: .275/.350/.480 (22-25 HR) & average defense
FV/Risk: 55, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Low-A, 2015: High-A, 2016: AA, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgEgNtCndhg
5. Kyle Freeland, LHP
Current Level/Age: Low-A/21.3, 6’3/170, L/L
Drafted: 8th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of Evansville by COL for $2.3 million bonus
Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/55
Scouting Report: Freeland is a tough evaluation: his fastball and slider were both flashing plus by the end of the year (the above video is from a solid but unspectacular early-season outing) but injury concerns will follow him for years. He had elbow surgery in 2007 as a high school freshman and some clubs were still concerned about the medical, with some a couple teams late in the first round telling me they probably wouldn’t take him if he slipped to them due to concerns about his less-than-smooth mechanics contributing to a future injury. Teams were more concerned about Chris Sale‘s mechanics when he was drafted, so it could end up being nothing and Freeland has been healthy for 7 years; the Rockies told me they aren’t concerned. I rounded down on the fastball and slider grade (both flash plus) since I think those pitches settle there in a starter role long-term. Freeland shows an advanced ability to command his above average stuff even with some effort to the delivery, so it’s hard to bet against him and he could shoot through the system in some scenarios, reaching his #3 starter upside in short order.
Summation: I’m taking the cautious, skeptical position on Freeland and hope I’m wrong; there’s enough unique traits here that point to him being an exception rather than the rule with young arms.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #3/4 Starter, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Low-A, 2015: High-A, 2016: AA, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rC1XDOJkYaY
Video credit to Mike Newman
6. Raimel Tapia, CF
Current Level/Age: Low-A/20.5, 6’2/160, L/L
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $175,000 out of Dominican Republic on 11/29/10
Hit: 20/60, Game Power: 30/40, Raw Power: 35/45, Speed: 60/60, Field: 45/55, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Tapia gets wide-ranging review from scouts, with some crushing him for an unusual swing and skinny frame, while others point to his elite bat control and performance (.342/.392/.503 in over 700 PA in domestic leagues). One scout said Tapia’s defensive reads were questionable and that his power wouldn’t profile in right field. Another scout gave a low-end comparison of Jon Jay, as a non-traditional outfielder that can play all three positions, doesn’t have much power but hits enough that you find a spot for him. The consensus is that this kid can hit despite sometimes funky mechanics and he has enough tools to be useful in some kind of everyday role.
Summation: With a trip to the hitter-friendly Cal League next year, a 50 Future Value will likely go up or down a notch depending on how he responds to big expectations.
Upside: .290/.350/.430 (8-12 HR), average defense & plus speed
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Low-A, 2015: High-A, 2016: AA, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB9rqcsVzpw
7. Tyler Anderson, LHP
Current Level/Age: AA/24.6, 6’4/215, L/L
Drafted: 20th overall (1st round) in 2011 out of Oregon by COL for $1.4 million bonus
Fastball: 50/50+, Slider: 45/45+, Curveball: 40/45, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50+
Scouting Report: The big lefty makes you pause due to the funky delivery, but it creates deception and he’s a good enough athlete to make it work for him command-wise. The stuff is at least as good as in college if not a little better: Anderson hit 95 mph earlier this month, but sits 89-92 mostly. His changeup is a weapon to get swings and misses but the question is on the breaking ball. He tinkers with a slider, curveball and cutter at times, but should be able to settle with at least one fringy/useable pitch to keep hitters off his best two pitches.
Summation: It’s a relatively low-risk #4 starter that could have a long big league career and it could start as soon as late 2015.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 Starter, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: AA, 2015: AAA, 2016: MLB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ax80j-T3ZQ0
8. Forrest Wall, 2B
Current Level/Age: Rookie/18.8, 6’0/175, L/R
Drafted: 35th overall (sandwich round) in 2014 out of FL high school by COL for $2.0 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Game Power: 35/45, Raw Power: 45/45+, Speed: 65/65, Field: 45/50, Throw: 45/45
Scouting Report: I was higher on Wall in this year’s draft than anyone I talked to (longer explanation) basically because he was being knocked for being a prep second baseman, though he’s an exception to the warranted rule to not pick one in the first round. Wall had a serious shoulder injury that limited his arm strength (which is now passable) and confidence to air it out while most prep second baseman play there due to a lack of athleticism or deficient baseball skills; Wall was there only because of an injury. He’s a plus to plus-plus runner with fringy raw power, can stick at second base and was arguably the best prep bat in the 2014 draft class. He’s raking in his pro debut and the Rockies have him on a throwing program to work on his arm strength.
Summation: At least league average offense and defense at an up-the middle position and plus base-running value is an everyday player and I bet if he was a center fielder (which he could be, but 2B is more valuable) Wall would’ve gone at least 10 picks higher than he did. I don’t know how this one will turn out, but I’m betting on this kid to beat expectations.
Upside: .280/.350/.430 (12-15 HR), average defense & plus speed
FV/Risk: 50, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2014: Rookie, 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A, 2017: AA, 2018: AAA, 2019: MLB
45 FV Prospects
9. Trevor Story, SS Video: Story is the best of the four fringy middle infielders in this group as he’s an athlete with the ability to stick at shortstop that looked like an everyday guy at one point, but tinkering with his swing has contributed to the bat stalling out a bit at the upper levels. One scout questioned his ability to recognize spin and the consensus is there isn’t enough here offensively for more than a utility guy.
10. Rosell Herrera, 3B Video: Herrera’s stock has fallen with a tough 2014 in the hitter-friendly Cal League due to a nagging wrist injury. It will be looked at again once the season ends to determine how serious of a problem it is going forward. Most scouts have Herrera moving to third base and more than a few called him soft, so while the tools are there for an everyday player and he raked last year at age 20 in Low-A, the arrow is pointing down until Herrera looks more like the 2013 version.
11. Jose Briceno, C Video: Briceno is a young catcher still working on the finer points defensively, but the athleticism and tools are there to stick behind the plate and the arm is plus. The raw power is average and there’s just enough feel to hit that he could get to it in games. It’s a longshot but potential everyday catchers don’t grow on trees, so scouts are more than willing to give Briceno a chance.
12. Taylor Featherston, SS Video: Featherston is a similar player to Adames, but scouts are more enthusiastic about Featherston’s chance to reach his upside. He’s good enough at shortstop to play there in the big leagues but not everyday, which is fine but the bat isn’t a standout and he fits as a utility type. Featherston is a better athlete with a lot more energy than Adames and better feel to hit, with one scout mentioning Adam Rosales as a similar player.
13. Cristhian Adames, SS Video: Adames is a player that I didn’t love last year in the Arizona Fall League and scouts keep finding excuses to move down this list, but he is a switch-hitting shortstop that’s hitting in AAA, so he still belong in this group. Scouts aren’t convinced he’s more than an okay utility player as he’s a low-energy guy that can pick it but doesn’t have elite range or speed and projects to be a below average hitter without much game power.
40 FV Prospects
14. Tom Murphy, C Video: Murphy could be higher on this list with fringe everyday tools, but has been banged up all year and scouts haven’t been able to see him play behind the plate recently. He’s almost all the way back to catching, but has struggled at the plate this year and scouts haven’t been too enthusiastic in their reviews. He’ll be 24 next year and is in the upper levels, so a strong start to 2015 could move him up this list about 5 spots.
15. Kyle Parker, 1B Video: Parker is another in a long line of Rockies’ quarterback picks (he started at Clemson) that includes Todd Helton, Seth Smith and Russell Wilson. Parker signed for $1.4 million as a late first rounder in 2010 and has hit well at every level, but scouts are skeptical this will continue at the big league level. There’s some swing and miss to his game that scouts think will increase against top-end pitching, holding back in above average raw power while his defensive indifference limits him to first base, likely in a platoon role.
16. Pedro Gonzalez, 3B Video: The Rockies top signing this July 2nd ($1.3 million) is the rare Dominican-signed fluent English speaker and he also has a unique frame, at least 6’4 and maybe 6’5, but at a rail-thin 160 pounds. He’s good at shortstop now and makes a lot of contact despite his age (16) and size due to his rare body control; scouts mention Manny Machado and Alex Rios as body comps. Gonzalez likely ends up at third base and develops at least average raw power, but, for now, he’s more of a contact hitter; if/when/how he handles added weight will dictate his future.
17. Alex Balog, RHP Video: Balog was a bit of an enigma his draft year, with scouts saying he got as high at 99 mph and sat 94-97 for stretches while he’d sit 89-92 for other outings. The Rockies got the 6’5/210 righty in the 2nd round last year and he’s showing back-end rotation potential in Low-A this year. He’ll sit 90-93 and hit 94 mph with a slider and changeup that are both a bit above average at times, but there’s still some adjustments that need to be made.
18. Ryan Castellani, RHP Video: Castellani was one of my favorite projection arms in the 2014 draft and the Rockies agreed, giving him $1.1 million in the 2nd round. The 6’4/190 righty was into the 90’s as a prep sophomore with projection and an easy delivery; he’s still around 90 now, but hit 95 mph early in his draft year. The separator here is a three-pitch mix and command that have all been above average at times and the body/athleticism that scouts can bet on.
19. Emerson Jimenez, SS Video: Jimenez is a projection play as a 6’1/160 shortstop holding his own at age 19 in Low-A despite a lack of strength. He’s good enough right now to stick at short, but he needs work offensively and defensively with mechanics and details. If he can add weight will dictate if he can make the improvements necessary to become a big league asset.
20. Sam Moll, LHP Video: 5’10/185 lefty has been moved to relief and hasn’t made it to a full-season league yet at age 22 with an elbow injury that slowed him out of spring training. Moll sits 93-95 with an above average curveball in short stints and while the plane isn’t there and the command isn’t great, it will fit in the late innings with some adjustments.
21. Dom Nunez, C Video: From powerhouse Sacramento-area high school that’s had Derek Hill, J.D. Davis and Rowdy Tellez go high in the last two drafts, Nunez moved behind the plate as a prep senior as the ideal fit for his tools. A 6th rounder in 2013 that got an over-slot $800,000, Nunez has a line drive bat with below-average power and is coming along nicely behind the plate with the tools to stick if the aptitude is there.
22. Carlos Estevez, RHP Video: 6’4/210 Dominican righty is 21 and sits 94-98 mph in short stints out of the bullpen. He isn’t just an arm strength guy, as the curveball is solid-average at times and he’ll use a slider and changeup. Estevez is still working on consistent mechanics/command, but there’s late-inning potential if the feel develops. Also worth noting he has the same name as someone noted for winning.
23. Matt Carasiti, RHP Video: 2012 6th rounder out of St. John’s has lived up to amateur scouting report of a power arm with three pitches but with the feel and consistency that fits better in the bullpen, where he moved this year in Low-A. He’ll sit 90-94 and hit 95 with an above average slider and solid-average changeup that could work in a 7th inning or long man role if the command progresses.
24. Antonio Senzatela, RHP Video: 19-year-old Venezuelan righty works 90-94 and hits 96 but has a limited upside with below average off-speed and a 6’1/180 frame. The delivery and command are good and he’s young enough that the stuff could improve; he could turn into a back-end type or spot starter with small improvements.
25. Correlle Prime, 1B Video: 6’5/200 power hitter has above average raw power to profile at first base if he hits, but some scouts doubted that out of high school ($125,000 bonus as 12th rounder in 2012) given his size. He’s hit at least .280 everywhere he’s gone and jacked 21 homers this year as a 20-year-old getting his first taste of full-season ball in Low-A. It’s probably bench/platoon bat upside as a big R/R first baseman, but he’s hitting and the headline puns will be easy.
Cistulli’s Guy
Mike Tauchman, OF
Following a late-June promotion to High-A Modesto, the 23-year-old Tauchman hit the first four home runs of his professional career over a span of just 46 plate appearances — a promising development, that, from a prospect who’d previously exhibited an advanced approach but little power. Unfortunately, in the 160 plate appearances which have proceeded that brief interval, Tauchman has recorded zero home runs. Still, he’s not without his virtues — especially relative to his pedigree. A 10th-round pick out of Bradley last year by the Rockies, Tauchman has posted promising walk and strikeout rates of 12.5% and 18.4%, respectively, while also producing a stolen-base record of 34-for-44 (77%) in just 119 professional games. While having been deployed mainly as a corner outfielder, he’s also made starts at center and, given his speed, it’s not unreasonable to suppose that he could handle the position occasionally.
A dearth of footage exists where Tauchman is concerned. Here, for example, is probably the best of it — a brief excerpt from three-year-old amateur video of Tauchman making one catch for Bradley:
Others Of Note
There’s the usual handful of hard-throwing relievers to note, with righty Scott Oberg the best and closest to the big leagues of the bunch. Rayan Gonzalez is mostly velocity and Konner Wade is a fringy stuff guy with moxie that could carve out a long-man role. Danny Winkler is a fringy stuff, huge deception spot starter type in the upper levels, but his ugly delivery contributed to this year’s Tommy John surgery. Righty Chris Martin is a 6’8 reliever on the 40-man (when he isn’t de-Gooping himself) with a plus fastball and cutter to go with big plane. Righty Johendi Jiminian is a projectable Dominican with a fastball/changeup combo that flash above average but a lot or work to do with delivery/feel while lefty Sam Howard was a recent college pick with average stuff that could turn into a 5th starter.
As for the bats, Jordan Patterson is a 6’4/215 athlete with a 4th outfielder profile if he can hit enough and Pat Valaika is another in a long family line of solid middle infield utility types. Dominican SS Carlos Herrera was a seven figure July 2nd signing last year that’s still on the island with some hamstring troubles while Venezuelan CF Omar Carrizales is 19 and a plus runner with contact skills. 3B Kevin Padlo was one of two interesting prep bat from last June’s draft: he’s a good athlete and makes the most of low-end everyday third base tools (Video) while SS Max George, a polished middle infielder with feel to hit (Video) joins Padlo with a chance to be on the list next year.
Evaluating the Prospects: Arizona Diamondbacks.
Evaluating the Prospects: Minnesota Twins.
The Diamondbacks have a solid system fronted by three right-handed starting pitchers that could all be factors in Arizona by the end of 2015. The system has added depth with recent trades and solid drafts, but most of the top talent is in the upper levels, so Arizona will need to continue restocking the farm to have a continuous pipeline.
Here’s the primer for the series and a disclaimer about how we don’t really know anything. See the links above for the two previous installments in this series and another series about how I evaluate, including four part on the ever-complicated hit tool, with more installments in that series coming soon.
Most of what you need to know for this list is at the above links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below, I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets that Arizona has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite and my first stab at an emoji scouting report. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Minnesota Twins.
Big League Growth Assets
1. A.J. Pollock, CF, Age 26
2. Chase Anderson, RHP, Age 26
3. Patrick Corbin, LHP, Age 25
4. Chris Owings, SS, Age 23
5. Didi Gregorius, SS, Age 24
6. Randall Delgado, RHP, Age 24
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
It took a full-scale collapse to force the necessary organizational reboot, but change is definitely coming to Arizona. Tony LaRussa’s vision for the franchise will take some time to play out, but fans should not expect any quick fixes; this team has some real work to do to get back into contention, and too many holes to plug in one off-season. A longer-term view is necessary, and the organization’s issues cannot be fixed by just throwing money at them. The damage from the previous regime can be undone, but not quickly.
50+ FV Prospects
Video Credit to Steve Fiorindo
1. Archie Bradley, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.0, 6’4/235, R/R
Drafted: 7th overall (1st round) in 2011 out of Oklahoma HS by ARZ for $5.0 million bonus
Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Bradley went from premium quarterback/pitching prospect in high school at age 17 to legitimately in play for the #1 overall pick at age 18 to top prospect immediately after signing, to possibly being in the big league rotation at age 21. In retrospect, some scouts think he was pressing in 2014 Spring Training, trying to do too much to impress the big league staff to break camp with the big league club. Bradley went back to Triple-A and by late April, he was on the shelf with an elbow strain. He returned from the DL in Double-A, starting 12 games but not quite looking like the same potential frontline starter from previous years.
Most attribute this difference to what I mention in the first sentence of the report: Bradley had never been hurt and basically hadn’t failed in his baseball career. Some scouts reported that he looked tentative at times and appeared to have slight timing issues in his delivery, affecting his command, which has never been a strength to begin with. This new experience threw Bradley off his game in what many are calling a lost year; scouts noticed him fidgeting, talking to himself and generally appearing to be in his own head much more this year than in previous years.
Many scouts thought his command projected as fringy at best before the injury, in part because his delivery doesn’t allow him to use all his athleticism. Those concerns have ratcheted up and there’s whispers that solid-but-unspectacular #3 D-backs prospect Aaron Blair may stick in the big league rotation before Bradley; some inside and outside of the organization think Bradley’s best fit best long-term is relief.
At his best, Bradley would come out early in starts and sit 95-98 mph with a curveball that was often a 70 on the 20-80 scale, which was probably the best two-pitch combination in the minor leagues. After the injury this year, Bradley would sit 92-95, hitting 96 or 97 at times, but rarely hitting the regular 98s of the past. The curveball would flash 70 every now and then, but often would be a 50 or 55 pitch that minor league umpires still hesitated to call a strike due to it’s size and sharpness.
Bradley will be in the Arizona Fall League next month and there’s hope he can make the necessary adjustments to regain his old stuff, but often when elite stuff backs up, it never completely comes back. Bradley has made an adjustment to his changeup grip and it’s now a consistent 50 pitch, but will likely never be better than that. Scouts tended to agree that Bradley was rushing through his delivery, which would cause his arm to lag and his curveball sharpness to suffer; this is usually fixable.
Summation: Some scouts said if Bradley is, going forward, the guy he was in the 12 post-injury starts this year, he projects as a #4 starter. He was a #2 starter for most before the injury, so the hedge bet from most scouts is the middle ground of a solid #3 starter. As mentioned above, the bullpen possibility is also more distinct now. Arm speed should never be a problem, so his career likely comes down to how well he can adjust his delivery and command to fit in a starter role.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 Starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
2. Braden Shipley, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.5, 6’3/190, R/R
Drafted: 15th overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Nevada by ARZ for $2.25 million bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 55/65, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Shipley started pitching as a sophomore at Nevada, then went in the middle of the 1st round after his junior year, highlighting how quickly he went from advanced athlete without a position to premium pitching prospect. He’s a ridiculous athlete that scouts tend to believe can do anything in part because of how quickly he’s taken to pitching. Shipley flashed three plus pitches after signing, especially notable because his curveball was rarely used in college and was the reason he lasted all the way to pick 15.
At his best, Shipley sits 92-95 and touches 98 mph, though his fastball has average at best movement and tends to straighten out late in starts when he’s fatigued. His curveball flashes plus and his changeup is a 65 pitch for some scouts. Shipley’s command still comes and goes, but he’s such a good athlete that scouts assume that will come around to average. He’s still working to get his arm conditioned to last late into games and Shipley’s stuff would, at times, play down a notch or two this season from the peak stuff noted in the future pitch grades above. Some scouts didn’t see any potential plus pitches from Shipley later this season, but that didn’t happen enough times to become a legitimate worry.
Summation: Shipley likely needs all of next year in the minors to work out the remaining kinks, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he gets a taste of the big leagues in 2015. There’s #2 starter upside with the athleticism you want to bet on, but still with enough risk you’d like to see a little more before you’re all in.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
3. Aaron Blair, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.2, 6’5/230, R/R
Drafted: 36th overall (sandwich round) in 2013 out of Marshall by ARZ for $1.435 million bonus
Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50
Scouting Report: Blair has slowly improved since being drafted last June that some in the organization have him as the #1 prospect in the system. He isn’t as flashy as Bradley and Shipley, but Blair has three pitches that all have been plus at times for scouts and are all regularly above average. One scout compared Blair’s ability to get heavy life on pitches to Roy Halladay, in part due to how big Blair’s hands are.
Another scout compared him as an overall pitcher to John Lackey and Lance Lynn, as a big and unspectacular but steady #3/4 starter that outperforms many more heralded talents. As noted in Bradley’s report, some think Blair may jump past the incredibly talented Bradley to settle in a big league rotation spot first amongst this top group of three Arizona prospects.
Blair sits 90-94 and has been up to 96 mph this year, with scouts noting the arm speed got a notch better this season, helping all of his stuff play up. He’s a control over command guy that throws a lot of strikes and the heavy life on his fastball helps induce weak contact rather than an excessive amount of strikeouts. Blair’s curveball was the concern as an amateur and early in his pro career, but now consistently shows average with some grading it as high as plus at times. His changeup has been his go-to off-speed pitch for years at is also consistently above average.
Summation: As you can see in the projected path, I think Blair starts the year in AA, gets a taste of the big leagues and sticks. He’s the kind of guy that these sorts of lists consistently underrate and then he never gets re-ranked when he proves us wrong as a big league asset. Consider this an advance apology for ranking him 3rd. Sorry, Aaron, but you need people like me that don’t learn from history and tell you that you aren’t good enough.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, Low (2 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
4. Brandon Drury, 3B
Current Level/Age: AA/22.0, 6’2/190, R/R
Drafted: 404th overall (13th round) in 2010 out of Oregon HS by ATL for $85,000 bonus
Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Arizona acquired Drury from Atlanta in the panned Justin Upton trade, but most scouts think Drury will become the most valuable asset from the package the Snakes received. While he only has solid-average bat speed, Drury has looseness to his swing and feel for the barrel, with some scouts putting a 60 on his hit tool.
It’s a line-drive type approach, so Drury doesn’t get to all of his raw power in games and he also isn’t much of a runner. He’s relatively new to third base and has taken to it well; the D-backs will try him at second base in the Arizona Fall League to see if he can move farther up the defensive spectrum. While Jake Lamb has already reached the big leagues, is left-handed and has more raw power, scouts are more confident that Drury has a big league impact due to his more advanced feel to hit.
Summation: Drury could be an above average everyday player if everything comes together and especially if he can play a passable second base. The big leagues are littered with everyday players that are average tools/big playability types that weren’t high draft picks or hyped prospects. Drury will be in the upper levels next year with a chance for a late-season call-up.
Upside: .275/.335/.450, solid-average 3B defense, negative baserunning value
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
5. Touki Toussaint, RHP
Current Level/Age: SS/18.2, 6’3/185, R/R
Drafted: 16th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of Florida HS by ARZ for $2.7 million bonus
Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 35/45+
Scouting Report: I scouted Toussaint 9 times over the last two years, so I might have too much history with this player. I made sure to talk to as many other sources as possible to make sure I wasn’t missing something, but there’s a clear consensus about his future. He’ll flash an easy plus fastball and a plus-plus curveball with a changeup that’s really progressed, but he’ll likely have to gear down the effort and arm speed a notch or two so he can command everything enough to start.
Toussaint showed this ability for the first time this spring, when he’d sit 91-94 with life, 96 mph in his back pocket and enough command that you could see him being a starter one day. His curveball was more often a 60 when he was commanding it well and staying within himself in his delivery, while his changeup went from a non-factor to a pitch that some scouts thought could one day be plus in the span of a few months. The fact that a freak athlete that hit 97 mph at age 15 and has never been hurt was able to make these sorts of adjustments while being young for his class are all positives in the equation for what Toussaint will one day become.
Summation: All those positives out of the way, Toussaint has a long way to go and it wouldn’t surprise me if he started 2015 in extended spring training to clear up some of these delivery/command/feel issues before being exposed to full-season ball. The upside is a #2 starter along the lines of Shipley or Bradley, but I’ll need to see some solid performance in full-season ball before I can move the projection up from what I have here.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 Starter/Closer, High (4 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A, 2017: AA, 2018: AAA, 2019: MLB
45 FV Prospects
6. Jake Lamb, 3B Video: Lamb is 23 and there’s lots to like: he’s currently in the big leagues with 60 raw power from the left side and he should be able to stick at third base long-term. Lamb was rushed to the big leagues due to Arizona’s injuries and is a late-count type that most scouts have as a 45 bat with too much swing-and-miss to his game, keeping him from getting to all his raw power in game situations.
7. Nick Ahmed, SS Video: Ahmed, another piece from the Upton trade, is an advanced defender (65 on the 20-80 scale) and the offensive bar for starting shortstops is so low that he may be able to clear it. That said, multiple scouts said .240 with 8 homers is what you’re hoping for and, even with solid numbers in Triple-A this season, it’s still even money if he ever gets there.
8. Andrew Velazquez, SS Video: Velazquez is small at 5’8/175 but the switch-hitter has the most usable power of the three shortstops in this group and has the best feel to hit as well. He has the tools to stick at short, stole a lot of bases but isn’t a huge runner (55 on the 20-80 scale, with excellent instincts) and is still learning the position, with some scouts saying he fits better at second base or in a utility role long-term.
9. Justin Williams, LF Video: Williams was a 2nd rounder out of high school in 2013 with 60 raw power from the left side as a carrying tool and was among the youngest in his draft class, just recently turning 19. He has an average arm but doesn’t project as more than a fringy defender, so the bat has to carry him. Williams beat expectations in Low-A this year but needs to make adjustments to get to his power in games and scouts are concerned advanced breaking stuff will give him trouble at higher levels.
10. Sergio Alcantara, SS: The rail-thin 5’10/150 Alcantara needs to add weight to avoid the bat being knocked out of his hands in full-season ball, but he has the tools to possibly become an everyday shortstop. He just turned 18 and is an average runner with the tools to stick at short along with some feel for the barrel, but really needs to develop physically before we’ll know what his ceiling is.
11. Matt Railey, CF Video: Every year a few players slip a round in the draft for no clear reason and the D-backs scooped up this year’s version in Railey. He turned 19 before the draft but has the big tools and performance you want from an overage prospect headlined by 60 speed and 55 raw power from the left side. He tore his hamstring after starting well in short-season ball but should be back for instructs later this month.
12. Peter O’Brien, 1B Video: O’Brien was acquired from the Yankees for Martin Prado (who was another part of the Upton deal) and O’Brien slipped to the back of this group because scouts know his limitations well by now. The D-backs will try him out behind the plate in the AFL, but that and another experiment at third base also failed when O’Brien was with the Yankees. He’s a 1B/DH fit with 65 raw power but his 6’4/225 frame gives him trouble making enough contact to get to it in games; most scouts have him as a 45 bat that fits in a platoon role.
40 FV Prospects
13. Matt Stites, RHP Video: Stites was acquired in the Ian Kennedy deal and has developed into a potential setup guy. He sits 94-97 and has hit 99 mph this year in the big leagues with a slider that flashes plus, but the command and effort in his delivery are still holding him back a bit. Also, I think this should be his theme music.
14. Jake Barrett, RHP Video: Barrett has stuff that’s just as good as Stites, but less consistent command to where some scouts have him as a 7th inning guy. Barrett’s velocity will vary from 92-94 to 97-99 depending on the outing, though his slider is a consistent 60 pitch and he has an rarely-used but average changeup. Barrett had some trouble changing his approach to work around the hitter-friendly parks in the PCL and his command sometimes draws a 30 grade, but he’ll get a big league shot next year.
15. Cody Reed, LHP Video: Reed went in the 2nd round in June out of an Alabama high school and he’s listed at 6’3/245, which is what he’s become in the desert after signing, but most scouts thought he was over 250 lbs before the draft. At his best, Reed sits 91-95 with four above average pitches, but his spring velo spike came with the added weight (some of which he’s now lost) and he was mostly 88-91 mph after signing. The pitchability is advanced and there’s a back-end starter in there if the velo doesn’t return.
16. Jimmie Sherfy, RHP Video: More than one scout described Sherfy as “f’ing weird” with his high effort delivery and high-energy temperament on the mound, but he’ll flash two plus-plus pitches at times. One scout said he saw 95-97 and a 60 slider in Low-A that would’ve gotten big leaguers out, then saw nothing but 30 grade sliders in another outing. A second scout said he saw the slider as a 70 when Sherfy was 96-98 mph but the mechanics are so ugly, you need to rush him to the big leagues before that gun is out of bullets. He flies open at times and will throw the slider too much with a high maintenance delivery, but there’s something here.
17. Jose Martinez, RHP Video: Scouts agreed that, before Martinez got a stress fracture in his throwing elbow early this year, he would’ve ranked just behind Bradley and Shipley in the system. He hasn’t started throwing again yet, but at his best, Martinez was into the mid-90’s with a 60 curveball that some scouts said was enough to prefer Martinez to Toussaint when he was healthy.
18. Mitch Haniger, LF Video: Haniger was acquired with the #24 prospect on this list from the Brewers earlier this year for Gerardo Parra. Entering the year, Haniger was seen as a solid 4th outfielder type that could become an everyday corner outfielder if he really hit. Scouts soured on him this year as he struggled at AA at age 23, his swing seemed to regress and none of the tools look better than average right now.
19. Stryker Trahan, C/RF Video: Trahan was a first round pick in 2012 but had an OPS of .631 in 407 PA in Low-A this season, which was enough to send him back to short-season Missoula to finish the year. The D-backs moved him from catcher to right field to speed up his bat’s ascent to the big leagues, but Trahan wants to catch and the organization took the opportunity at Hillsboro to send him back behind the plate. He has some aptitude and tools to catch, but most scouts don’t think he can stick in an everyday role back there while his 60 raw power is being held back in games by good off-speed stuff.
20. Zach Borenstein, LF Video: Borenstein was acquired from the Angels in the Joe Thatcher deal earlier this year and doesn’t really have a position, but should have big league value. Borenstein is an advanced hitter from the left side that can be a bat-only platoon option with solid-average game power but not a great approach.
21. Socrates Brito, RF Video: The best name in the system has steadily improved but hasn’t quite had his breakout yet. Brito turned 22 recently and profiles in right field with a 60 arm, 55 speed and 55 raw power from the left side, all of which could profile as an everyday player with some adjustments to his approach.
22. Isan Diaz, 2B Video: Diaz was a 2nd rounder in June from a Massachusetts high school, but he’s more polished than the background would suggest. He’s just 5’10/185 and a below average runner, but will be at least an average defender at second base and Diaz has a very advanced lefty bat. There’s a chance for a 60 bat and 50 power along the lines of Orlando Hudson, despite the mediocre pro debut.
23. Jose Herrera, C Video: The switch-hitting Venezuelan catcher signed for $1.06 million last July 2nd and has already shown tools stateside that scouts like. Herrera flashes plus defensive ability and some feel to hit, though there isn’t a ton of power and it’s a defense-over-offense profile.
24. Anthony Banda, LHP: The D-backs drafted Banda out of high school and weren’t able to sign him, but were able to acquire him with Haniger in the Parra deal earlier this year. Banda features a solid-average three-pitch mix with an above average changeup, giving him a chance to become a back-end starter.
25. J.R. Bradley, RHP: A 2nd rounder out of a West Virginia high school in 2010, Bradley had things click for him this year in a move to the bullpen. He’s mostly 93-96 with a curveball that flashed 55 and a chance to become a setup guy if the command can improve.
26. Enrique Burgos, RHP Video: Burgos sits 95-98 mph out of the bullpen and flashes an average slider but doesn’t have a ton of feel to pitch right now. The Panamanian righty is leaning to harness his stuff to be able to get advanced hitters out, but struck out 83 in 54.2 innings this year in High-A, so he isn’t a total project. I thought he was a natural fit for my latest experiment: emoji scouting reports.
Burgos
(note: those are/are supposed to be question marks over the guy’s head in the third emoji)
Cistulli’s Guy
Blayne Weller, RHP
No 2012 entry exists for Weller at his FanGraphs page — not because he was injured or otherwise indisposed for that particular season, but because he spent it with the Windy City ThunderBolts of the independent Frontier League. Signed by Arizona out of that same league in May of 2013, Weller has been excellent in his return to affiliated baseball, having recorded strikeout and walk rates of 26.2% and 8.6%, respectively, over 199.2 innings across multiple levels. One is compelled to note that the 24-year-old right-hander has been uniformly old relative to his competition. What else one is compelled to note, however, is that Weller doesn’t rely mainly on deception. To wit: during the ninth inning of a July no-hitter with Class A South Bend, Weller hit 95 mph more than once. Nor was that even his most dominant start of the season. Indeed, following a promotion to High-A Visalia, Weller produced an eight-inning appearance over which he struck out 16 of 31 batters faced.
While little footage exists of Weller, here’s a GIF of his curveball from the aforementioned no-hitter:
Others of Note
The system has what appears to be a never-ending supply of guys that can get into the mid-90’s but the best relief arms I haven’t mentioned yet aren’t huge velo guys: lefties Daniel Gibson and Andrew Chafin. Chafin used to have big stuff but now is ready to contribute at the big league level with average stuff and moxie, while Gibson has solid-average stuff that could still work as a starter. Kaleb Fleck is a relief-only righty that’s 94-97 with an average slider and fringy command. RHP Brent Jones was a 4th rounder out of Cornell in June and has some effort to his delivery but lively stuff that flashes plus at times and will be pushed like Shipley and Blair to see if he can start long-term. Silvino Bracho is a smaller righty getting results in Low-A with above average stuff but scouts aren’t sure how much it’ll work at higher levels while 2014 5th rounder RHP Mason McCullough hits 97-100 mph most times out but is mostly arm strength right now.
There’s a glut of athletic top-10 round picks in the Arizona system that could take off with a couple adjustments. CF Matt McPhearson is a plus-plus runner that needs to improve his swing while Colin Bray is 6’4/205 athlete with above average tools that was making some swing adjustments before he broke his foot this year. CF Marcus Wilson was a 3rd rounder this year and the 6’3/175 plus runner almost made the list, but his debut exposed some holes in his swing that need to be addressed. 3B Jose Munoz, 2B Jamie Westbrook and CF Chuck Taylor have potential everyday tools if the bat can continue to progress while 6’4, switch-hitting Dominican outfielder Francis Martinez will make his U.S. debut in instructs and has huge raw power. Evan Marzilli is an overachiever that can play center field and hit just enough to give some big league value.
Here’s the primer for the series and a disclaimer about how we don’t really know anything. See the links above for the two previous installments in this series and another series about how I evaluate, including four part on the ever-complicated hit tool, with more installments in that series coming soon.
Most of what you need to know for this list is at the above links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below, I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets that Arizona has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite and my first stab at an emoji scouting report. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Minnesota Twins.
Big League Growth Assets
1. A.J. Pollock, CF, Age 26
2. Chase Anderson, RHP, Age 26
3. Patrick Corbin, LHP, Age 25
4. Chris Owings, SS, Age 23
5. Didi Gregorius, SS, Age 24
6. Randall Delgado, RHP, Age 24
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
It took a full-scale collapse to force the necessary organizational reboot, but change is definitely coming to Arizona. Tony LaRussa’s vision for the franchise will take some time to play out, but fans should not expect any quick fixes; this team has some real work to do to get back into contention, and too many holes to plug in one off-season. A longer-term view is necessary, and the organization’s issues cannot be fixed by just throwing money at them. The damage from the previous regime can be undone, but not quickly.
50+ FV Prospects
Video Credit to Steve Fiorindo
1. Archie Bradley, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.0, 6’4/235, R/R
Drafted: 7th overall (1st round) in 2011 out of Oklahoma HS by ARZ for $5.0 million bonus
Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: Bradley went from premium quarterback/pitching prospect in high school at age 17 to legitimately in play for the #1 overall pick at age 18 to top prospect immediately after signing, to possibly being in the big league rotation at age 21. In retrospect, some scouts think he was pressing in 2014 Spring Training, trying to do too much to impress the big league staff to break camp with the big league club. Bradley went back to Triple-A and by late April, he was on the shelf with an elbow strain. He returned from the DL in Double-A, starting 12 games but not quite looking like the same potential frontline starter from previous years.
Most attribute this difference to what I mention in the first sentence of the report: Bradley had never been hurt and basically hadn’t failed in his baseball career. Some scouts reported that he looked tentative at times and appeared to have slight timing issues in his delivery, affecting his command, which has never been a strength to begin with. This new experience threw Bradley off his game in what many are calling a lost year; scouts noticed him fidgeting, talking to himself and generally appearing to be in his own head much more this year than in previous years.
Many scouts thought his command projected as fringy at best before the injury, in part because his delivery doesn’t allow him to use all his athleticism. Those concerns have ratcheted up and there’s whispers that solid-but-unspectacular #3 D-backs prospect Aaron Blair may stick in the big league rotation before Bradley; some inside and outside of the organization think Bradley’s best fit best long-term is relief.
At his best, Bradley would come out early in starts and sit 95-98 mph with a curveball that was often a 70 on the 20-80 scale, which was probably the best two-pitch combination in the minor leagues. After the injury this year, Bradley would sit 92-95, hitting 96 or 97 at times, but rarely hitting the regular 98s of the past. The curveball would flash 70 every now and then, but often would be a 50 or 55 pitch that minor league umpires still hesitated to call a strike due to it’s size and sharpness.
Bradley will be in the Arizona Fall League next month and there’s hope he can make the necessary adjustments to regain his old stuff, but often when elite stuff backs up, it never completely comes back. Bradley has made an adjustment to his changeup grip and it’s now a consistent 50 pitch, but will likely never be better than that. Scouts tended to agree that Bradley was rushing through his delivery, which would cause his arm to lag and his curveball sharpness to suffer; this is usually fixable.
Summation: Some scouts said if Bradley is, going forward, the guy he was in the 12 post-injury starts this year, he projects as a #4 starter. He was a #2 starter for most before the injury, so the hedge bet from most scouts is the middle ground of a solid #3 starter. As mentioned above, the bullpen possibility is also more distinct now. Arm speed should never be a problem, so his career likely comes down to how well he can adjust his delivery and command to fit in a starter role.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 Starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
2. Braden Shipley, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.5, 6’3/190, R/R
Drafted: 15th overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Nevada by ARZ for $2.25 million bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 55/65, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Shipley started pitching as a sophomore at Nevada, then went in the middle of the 1st round after his junior year, highlighting how quickly he went from advanced athlete without a position to premium pitching prospect. He’s a ridiculous athlete that scouts tend to believe can do anything in part because of how quickly he’s taken to pitching. Shipley flashed three plus pitches after signing, especially notable because his curveball was rarely used in college and was the reason he lasted all the way to pick 15.
At his best, Shipley sits 92-95 and touches 98 mph, though his fastball has average at best movement and tends to straighten out late in starts when he’s fatigued. His curveball flashes plus and his changeup is a 65 pitch for some scouts. Shipley’s command still comes and goes, but he’s such a good athlete that scouts assume that will come around to average. He’s still working to get his arm conditioned to last late into games and Shipley’s stuff would, at times, play down a notch or two this season from the peak stuff noted in the future pitch grades above. Some scouts didn’t see any potential plus pitches from Shipley later this season, but that didn’t happen enough times to become a legitimate worry.
Summation: Shipley likely needs all of next year in the minors to work out the remaining kinks, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he gets a taste of the big leagues in 2015. There’s #2 starter upside with the athleticism you want to bet on, but still with enough risk you’d like to see a little more before you’re all in.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
3. Aaron Blair, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.2, 6’5/230, R/R
Drafted: 36th overall (sandwich round) in 2013 out of Marshall by ARZ for $1.435 million bonus
Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50
Scouting Report: Blair has slowly improved since being drafted last June that some in the organization have him as the #1 prospect in the system. He isn’t as flashy as Bradley and Shipley, but Blair has three pitches that all have been plus at times for scouts and are all regularly above average. One scout compared Blair’s ability to get heavy life on pitches to Roy Halladay, in part due to how big Blair’s hands are.
Another scout compared him as an overall pitcher to John Lackey and Lance Lynn, as a big and unspectacular but steady #3/4 starter that outperforms many more heralded talents. As noted in Bradley’s report, some think Blair may jump past the incredibly talented Bradley to settle in a big league rotation spot first amongst this top group of three Arizona prospects.
Blair sits 90-94 and has been up to 96 mph this year, with scouts noting the arm speed got a notch better this season, helping all of his stuff play up. He’s a control over command guy that throws a lot of strikes and the heavy life on his fastball helps induce weak contact rather than an excessive amount of strikeouts. Blair’s curveball was the concern as an amateur and early in his pro career, but now consistently shows average with some grading it as high as plus at times. His changeup has been his go-to off-speed pitch for years at is also consistently above average.
Summation: As you can see in the projected path, I think Blair starts the year in AA, gets a taste of the big leagues and sticks. He’s the kind of guy that these sorts of lists consistently underrate and then he never gets re-ranked when he proves us wrong as a big league asset. Consider this an advance apology for ranking him 3rd. Sorry, Aaron, but you need people like me that don’t learn from history and tell you that you aren’t good enough.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, Low (2 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
4. Brandon Drury, 3B
Current Level/Age: AA/22.0, 6’2/190, R/R
Drafted: 404th overall (13th round) in 2010 out of Oregon HS by ATL for $85,000 bonus
Hit: 30/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 45/50, Run: 35/35, Field: 45/50+, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Arizona acquired Drury from Atlanta in the panned Justin Upton trade, but most scouts think Drury will become the most valuable asset from the package the Snakes received. While he only has solid-average bat speed, Drury has looseness to his swing and feel for the barrel, with some scouts putting a 60 on his hit tool.
It’s a line-drive type approach, so Drury doesn’t get to all of his raw power in games and he also isn’t much of a runner. He’s relatively new to third base and has taken to it well; the D-backs will try him at second base in the Arizona Fall League to see if he can move farther up the defensive spectrum. While Jake Lamb has already reached the big leagues, is left-handed and has more raw power, scouts are more confident that Drury has a big league impact due to his more advanced feel to hit.
Summation: Drury could be an above average everyday player if everything comes together and especially if he can play a passable second base. The big leagues are littered with everyday players that are average tools/big playability types that weren’t high draft picks or hyped prospects. Drury will be in the upper levels next year with a chance for a late-season call-up.
Upside: .275/.335/.450, solid-average 3B defense, negative baserunning value
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
5. Touki Toussaint, RHP
Current Level/Age: SS/18.2, 6’3/185, R/R
Drafted: 16th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of Florida HS by ARZ for $2.7 million bonus
Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 35/45+
Scouting Report: I scouted Toussaint 9 times over the last two years, so I might have too much history with this player. I made sure to talk to as many other sources as possible to make sure I wasn’t missing something, but there’s a clear consensus about his future. He’ll flash an easy plus fastball and a plus-plus curveball with a changeup that’s really progressed, but he’ll likely have to gear down the effort and arm speed a notch or two so he can command everything enough to start.
Toussaint showed this ability for the first time this spring, when he’d sit 91-94 with life, 96 mph in his back pocket and enough command that you could see him being a starter one day. His curveball was more often a 60 when he was commanding it well and staying within himself in his delivery, while his changeup went from a non-factor to a pitch that some scouts thought could one day be plus in the span of a few months. The fact that a freak athlete that hit 97 mph at age 15 and has never been hurt was able to make these sorts of adjustments while being young for his class are all positives in the equation for what Toussaint will one day become.
Summation: All those positives out of the way, Toussaint has a long way to go and it wouldn’t surprise me if he started 2015 in extended spring training to clear up some of these delivery/command/feel issues before being exposed to full-season ball. The upside is a #2 starter along the lines of Shipley or Bradley, but I’ll need to see some solid performance in full-season ball before I can move the projection up from what I have here.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 Starter/Closer, High (4 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A, 2017: AA, 2018: AAA, 2019: MLB
45 FV Prospects
6. Jake Lamb, 3B Video: Lamb is 23 and there’s lots to like: he’s currently in the big leagues with 60 raw power from the left side and he should be able to stick at third base long-term. Lamb was rushed to the big leagues due to Arizona’s injuries and is a late-count type that most scouts have as a 45 bat with too much swing-and-miss to his game, keeping him from getting to all his raw power in game situations.
7. Nick Ahmed, SS Video: Ahmed, another piece from the Upton trade, is an advanced defender (65 on the 20-80 scale) and the offensive bar for starting shortstops is so low that he may be able to clear it. That said, multiple scouts said .240 with 8 homers is what you’re hoping for and, even with solid numbers in Triple-A this season, it’s still even money if he ever gets there.
8. Andrew Velazquez, SS Video: Velazquez is small at 5’8/175 but the switch-hitter has the most usable power of the three shortstops in this group and has the best feel to hit as well. He has the tools to stick at short, stole a lot of bases but isn’t a huge runner (55 on the 20-80 scale, with excellent instincts) and is still learning the position, with some scouts saying he fits better at second base or in a utility role long-term.
9. Justin Williams, LF Video: Williams was a 2nd rounder out of high school in 2013 with 60 raw power from the left side as a carrying tool and was among the youngest in his draft class, just recently turning 19. He has an average arm but doesn’t project as more than a fringy defender, so the bat has to carry him. Williams beat expectations in Low-A this year but needs to make adjustments to get to his power in games and scouts are concerned advanced breaking stuff will give him trouble at higher levels.
10. Sergio Alcantara, SS: The rail-thin 5’10/150 Alcantara needs to add weight to avoid the bat being knocked out of his hands in full-season ball, but he has the tools to possibly become an everyday shortstop. He just turned 18 and is an average runner with the tools to stick at short along with some feel for the barrel, but really needs to develop physically before we’ll know what his ceiling is.
11. Matt Railey, CF Video: Every year a few players slip a round in the draft for no clear reason and the D-backs scooped up this year’s version in Railey. He turned 19 before the draft but has the big tools and performance you want from an overage prospect headlined by 60 speed and 55 raw power from the left side. He tore his hamstring after starting well in short-season ball but should be back for instructs later this month.
12. Peter O’Brien, 1B Video: O’Brien was acquired from the Yankees for Martin Prado (who was another part of the Upton deal) and O’Brien slipped to the back of this group because scouts know his limitations well by now. The D-backs will try him out behind the plate in the AFL, but that and another experiment at third base also failed when O’Brien was with the Yankees. He’s a 1B/DH fit with 65 raw power but his 6’4/225 frame gives him trouble making enough contact to get to it in games; most scouts have him as a 45 bat that fits in a platoon role.
40 FV Prospects
13. Matt Stites, RHP Video: Stites was acquired in the Ian Kennedy deal and has developed into a potential setup guy. He sits 94-97 and has hit 99 mph this year in the big leagues with a slider that flashes plus, but the command and effort in his delivery are still holding him back a bit. Also, I think this should be his theme music.
14. Jake Barrett, RHP Video: Barrett has stuff that’s just as good as Stites, but less consistent command to where some scouts have him as a 7th inning guy. Barrett’s velocity will vary from 92-94 to 97-99 depending on the outing, though his slider is a consistent 60 pitch and he has an rarely-used but average changeup. Barrett had some trouble changing his approach to work around the hitter-friendly parks in the PCL and his command sometimes draws a 30 grade, but he’ll get a big league shot next year.
15. Cody Reed, LHP Video: Reed went in the 2nd round in June out of an Alabama high school and he’s listed at 6’3/245, which is what he’s become in the desert after signing, but most scouts thought he was over 250 lbs before the draft. At his best, Reed sits 91-95 with four above average pitches, but his spring velo spike came with the added weight (some of which he’s now lost) and he was mostly 88-91 mph after signing. The pitchability is advanced and there’s a back-end starter in there if the velo doesn’t return.
16. Jimmie Sherfy, RHP Video: More than one scout described Sherfy as “f’ing weird” with his high effort delivery and high-energy temperament on the mound, but he’ll flash two plus-plus pitches at times. One scout said he saw 95-97 and a 60 slider in Low-A that would’ve gotten big leaguers out, then saw nothing but 30 grade sliders in another outing. A second scout said he saw the slider as a 70 when Sherfy was 96-98 mph but the mechanics are so ugly, you need to rush him to the big leagues before that gun is out of bullets. He flies open at times and will throw the slider too much with a high maintenance delivery, but there’s something here.
17. Jose Martinez, RHP Video: Scouts agreed that, before Martinez got a stress fracture in his throwing elbow early this year, he would’ve ranked just behind Bradley and Shipley in the system. He hasn’t started throwing again yet, but at his best, Martinez was into the mid-90’s with a 60 curveball that some scouts said was enough to prefer Martinez to Toussaint when he was healthy.
18. Mitch Haniger, LF Video: Haniger was acquired with the #24 prospect on this list from the Brewers earlier this year for Gerardo Parra. Entering the year, Haniger was seen as a solid 4th outfielder type that could become an everyday corner outfielder if he really hit. Scouts soured on him this year as he struggled at AA at age 23, his swing seemed to regress and none of the tools look better than average right now.
19. Stryker Trahan, C/RF Video: Trahan was a first round pick in 2012 but had an OPS of .631 in 407 PA in Low-A this season, which was enough to send him back to short-season Missoula to finish the year. The D-backs moved him from catcher to right field to speed up his bat’s ascent to the big leagues, but Trahan wants to catch and the organization took the opportunity at Hillsboro to send him back behind the plate. He has some aptitude and tools to catch, but most scouts don’t think he can stick in an everyday role back there while his 60 raw power is being held back in games by good off-speed stuff.
20. Zach Borenstein, LF Video: Borenstein was acquired from the Angels in the Joe Thatcher deal earlier this year and doesn’t really have a position, but should have big league value. Borenstein is an advanced hitter from the left side that can be a bat-only platoon option with solid-average game power but not a great approach.
21. Socrates Brito, RF Video: The best name in the system has steadily improved but hasn’t quite had his breakout yet. Brito turned 22 recently and profiles in right field with a 60 arm, 55 speed and 55 raw power from the left side, all of which could profile as an everyday player with some adjustments to his approach.
22. Isan Diaz, 2B Video: Diaz was a 2nd rounder in June from a Massachusetts high school, but he’s more polished than the background would suggest. He’s just 5’10/185 and a below average runner, but will be at least an average defender at second base and Diaz has a very advanced lefty bat. There’s a chance for a 60 bat and 50 power along the lines of Orlando Hudson, despite the mediocre pro debut.
23. Jose Herrera, C Video: The switch-hitting Venezuelan catcher signed for $1.06 million last July 2nd and has already shown tools stateside that scouts like. Herrera flashes plus defensive ability and some feel to hit, though there isn’t a ton of power and it’s a defense-over-offense profile.
24. Anthony Banda, LHP: The D-backs drafted Banda out of high school and weren’t able to sign him, but were able to acquire him with Haniger in the Parra deal earlier this year. Banda features a solid-average three-pitch mix with an above average changeup, giving him a chance to become a back-end starter.
25. J.R. Bradley, RHP: A 2nd rounder out of a West Virginia high school in 2010, Bradley had things click for him this year in a move to the bullpen. He’s mostly 93-96 with a curveball that flashed 55 and a chance to become a setup guy if the command can improve.
26. Enrique Burgos, RHP Video: Burgos sits 95-98 mph out of the bullpen and flashes an average slider but doesn’t have a ton of feel to pitch right now. The Panamanian righty is leaning to harness his stuff to be able to get advanced hitters out, but struck out 83 in 54.2 innings this year in High-A, so he isn’t a total project. I thought he was a natural fit for my latest experiment: emoji scouting reports.
Burgos
(note: those are/are supposed to be question marks over the guy’s head in the third emoji)
Cistulli’s Guy
Blayne Weller, RHP
No 2012 entry exists for Weller at his FanGraphs page — not because he was injured or otherwise indisposed for that particular season, but because he spent it with the Windy City ThunderBolts of the independent Frontier League. Signed by Arizona out of that same league in May of 2013, Weller has been excellent in his return to affiliated baseball, having recorded strikeout and walk rates of 26.2% and 8.6%, respectively, over 199.2 innings across multiple levels. One is compelled to note that the 24-year-old right-hander has been uniformly old relative to his competition. What else one is compelled to note, however, is that Weller doesn’t rely mainly on deception. To wit: during the ninth inning of a July no-hitter with Class A South Bend, Weller hit 95 mph more than once. Nor was that even his most dominant start of the season. Indeed, following a promotion to High-A Visalia, Weller produced an eight-inning appearance over which he struck out 16 of 31 batters faced.
While little footage exists of Weller, here’s a GIF of his curveball from the aforementioned no-hitter:
Others of Note
The system has what appears to be a never-ending supply of guys that can get into the mid-90’s but the best relief arms I haven’t mentioned yet aren’t huge velo guys: lefties Daniel Gibson and Andrew Chafin. Chafin used to have big stuff but now is ready to contribute at the big league level with average stuff and moxie, while Gibson has solid-average stuff that could still work as a starter. Kaleb Fleck is a relief-only righty that’s 94-97 with an average slider and fringy command. RHP Brent Jones was a 4th rounder out of Cornell in June and has some effort to his delivery but lively stuff that flashes plus at times and will be pushed like Shipley and Blair to see if he can start long-term. Silvino Bracho is a smaller righty getting results in Low-A with above average stuff but scouts aren’t sure how much it’ll work at higher levels while 2014 5th rounder RHP Mason McCullough hits 97-100 mph most times out but is mostly arm strength right now.
There’s a glut of athletic top-10 round picks in the Arizona system that could take off with a couple adjustments. CF Matt McPhearson is a plus-plus runner that needs to improve his swing while Colin Bray is 6’4/205 athlete with above average tools that was making some swing adjustments before he broke his foot this year. CF Marcus Wilson was a 3rd rounder this year and the 6’3/175 plus runner almost made the list, but his debut exposed some holes in his swing that need to be addressed. 3B Jose Munoz, 2B Jamie Westbrook and CF Chuck Taylor have potential everyday tools if the bat can continue to progress while 6’4, switch-hitting Dominican outfielder Francis Martinez will make his U.S. debut in instructs and has huge raw power. Evan Marzilli is an overachiever that can play center field and hit just enough to give some big league value.
Evaluating the Prospects: Minnesota Twins.
The Twins have both top-end talent and lots of depth in their system, which will likely rank their system among the best in the league when I get around to that later this off-season. It’s interesting to note that the Twins, known as a team that preferred to draft starters average fastballs and pitchability in the past, drafted almost all relievers with their early picks in 2014.
They drafted 8 pitchers in their first 10 picks last June with scouts projecting all of them to be relievers, though the Twins will develop some as starters for now. Minnesota now has, by my count, 10 pitchers in the system that have recently hit 98 mph or higher, which is close to the most in baseball, if not the most. Twins execs say it was more situational that they drafted the pitchability type arms in the past, but that there has been a concerted effort to move more toward acquiring power arms, even if they project as relievers.
Here’s the primer for the series and a disclaimer about how we don’t really know anything. See the links above for the ongoing series about how I evaluate, including a five-part on the ever-complicated hit tool.
Most of what you need to know for this list is at the above links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below, I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets that Minnesota has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Houston Astros.
Big League Growth Assets
1. Oswaldo Arcia, RF, Age 23
2. Eduardo Escobar, SS, Age 25
3. Josmil Pinto, C/DH, Age 25
4. Kennys Vargas, 1B/DH, Age 24
5. Danny Santana, UT, Age 23
6. Aaron Hicks, CF, Age 24
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
The Twins are firmly in rebuilding mode, but in that awkward stage when their young talent hasn’t developed yet, so they find themselves filling roster spots with veterans who have no real future with the organization. These kinds of seasons give the team chances to find unexpected core pieces like Brian Dozier, but it also forces the team’s fan base to sit through way too much of Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. They aren’t particularly close to contending, so expect a few more years of sifting until they finally try and put a contender on the field again.
50+ FV Prospects
1. Byron Buxton, CF
Current Level/Age: AA/20.8, 6’2/190, R/R
Drafted: 2nd overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Georgia HS by MIN for $6.0 million bonus
Hit: 30/60, Raw Power: 50/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 80/80, Field: 65/70, Throw: 65/65
Scouting Report: Buxton was seen as the consensus top prospect in the 2012 draft and it was easy to see with literally-off-the-charts speed, an easy plus arm, advanced feel to defend and a projectable frame to go with ridiculous athleticism, looseness and bat speed. The concern was on the bat and his inconsistent hitting mechanics, which have been slowly corrected while his hitting performance has been better than even the Twins expected. Buxton was concussed in an ugly outfield collision shortly after being promoted to AA, but has been in instructs and will go to the Arizona Fall League for extra at bats to make up for lost time. Buxton battled nagging injuries this season and seemed like his timing was off, with most scouts and Twins execs calling it a lost year that he’ll look to bounce back from with a clean bill of health in 2015. The 70 grade on his defense may be a little light and he may end up closer to a 70 hitter if he can rebound next year from a tough 2015.
Summation: Buxton is still on the fast track and could hit his way to the the big leagues in 2015 with a regular spot in 2016, but we’ll know more after the AFL and his early performance in 2015 to know how much time he needs in the minors.
Upside: .290/.355/.470, plus-plus CF defense & baserunning value
FV/Risk: 70, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
2. Miguel Sano, 3B
Current Level/Age: AA/21.4, 6’4/235, R/R
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $3.15 million out of Dominican on 10/9/09
Hit: 30/50, Raw Power: 80/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 45/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: Sano missed all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery but is a participating in all phases of instructs right now, but is being held out of games to avoid any additional injuries. He had a very high profile signing process, complete with a documentary, accusations of falsifying his age, bone scans and a surprise late entrant scooping up the player. He was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent with 80 raw power and the ability to stay in the infield to go with advanced feel to hit. That’s all still technically true, but, like a similar super-elite July 2nd prospect, Miguel Cabrera, Sano has put on a lot of weight but at an even younger age.
Sano has a plus arm and good hands, but his lack of first step quickness and arm accuracy holds back his ability to stick at the position. Like Joey Gallo with the Rangers, the team will leave him at third as long as possible, but scouts speculate that right field or first base is where Sano will end up. There are also some concerns about Sano’s hitting ability; not that he’s can’t hit in the traditional sense, but that his size, power type and at times aggressive approach could lead to a .250 or .260 average and his walk rates may regress when big league pitchers can exploit his weaknesses. None of this has happened yet as Sano is still more talented than everyone that he’s faced so far, but scouts are paid to project the future, so that’s something to watch going forward. The 70 game power grade converts to 30-35 homers, though that could end up being a little light in the end.
Summation: The contact and defensive issues will be important to watch next season, but I wouldn’t expect to see a full 100% Sano until the end of 2015. He should go straight to the upper levels of the minors for 2015 and may get a big league look depending on how well he performs, with 2016 a reasonable time to look for an extended big league audition. There are some concerns that Sano isn’t as mentally mature as some other elite prospects, so it will be interesting to see what kind of shape he’s in for spring training following over a year of rehab.
Upside: .275/.360/.525, fringy 3B defense, negative baserunning value
FV/Risk: 60, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
3. Jose Berrios, RHP
Current Level/Age: AAA/20.3, 6’0/190, R/R
Drafted: 32nd overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Puerto Rico HS by MIN for $1.55 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50
Scouting Report: Berrios may not be big at 6’0/190, but scouts rave about his athleticism, makeup and work ethic. His velocity has slowly improved since high school in Puerto Rico (where they don’t play many games) and now sits at 93-96, hitting 98 mph. There isn’t a ton of plane or life to the pitch, but his clean arm action and deceptively easy delivery helps the heater sneak up on hitters. Berrios calls his breaking pitches a slow and fast curveball, but the fast one plays like a slider and both are above average; scouts will call one or the other plus depending on the day, but the slower curve gets the better grade more often. His changeup is above average and may be plus one day, helping to keep hitters off his fastball. One scout compared him to Javier Vazquez.
Summation: The stuff and command are both there but scouts and Twins execs are gravitating to the off-the-field attributes that have allowed Berrios to improve so quickly (High-A to Triple-A this season at age 19/20) to push for him to be ranked this high. He could get a big league taste next season but more likely gets up and sticks in 2016.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 starter, Low (2 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: MLB
4. Nick Gordon, SS
Current Level/Age: SS/18.9, 6’1/175, L/R
Drafted: 5th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of Florida HS by MIN for $3.851 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: Nick is the son of Tom Gordon and the brother of Dee Gordon, so the bloodlines are good and when Nick was a high school sophomore, his senior teammates were first rounders Jesse Winker and Walker Weickel. Combine that with the fact that Nick was noticeable as a top prospect in his class as early as his freshman year and he seemed to be at every major showcase or tournament his entire prep career and it’s easy to see why scout were comfortable with him by draft time. Between October and January showcases, Gordon appeared to put on about 10 pounds and mature physically, turning him from a late first rounder into a top 10 pick.
Gordon has above average foot speed and bat speed to go with good size for a shortstop, but it’s his polish at a young age that helps him stand out. He has good feel for the bat head and the ability to hit ball with power to the opposite field, potentially hitting 15-18 homers per year at maturity. His first step is a little slow, so his timed game speed is closer to average and he relies on great instincts and positioning to give him the range to project as a shortstop, due in part to working with family friend Barry Larkin this year. If his range is a bit ordinary, Gordon’s hands are above average and his arm is plus, sitting 91-94 and hitting 95 with an above average curveball when he pitches, which he stopped doing this year to focus on being a shortstop.
Summation: Gordon’s 2014 ended prematurely with a broken finger but he will be fine for 2015 and will go to Low-A. He could move quickly if he hits the ground running offensively.
Upside: .280/.350/.440, average SS defense
FV/Risk: 55, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A/AA, 2017: AA/AAA, 2018: AAA/MLB, 2019: MLB
Video Credit to Cubs Prospect Watch
5. Kohl Stewart, RHP
Current Level/Age: Low-A/20.0, 6’3/195, R/R
Drafted: 4th overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Texas HS by MIN for $4.544 million bonus
Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Slider: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Stewart ended his first full season with some shoulder inflammation and only 6.4 K/9, but there’s a lot more to like than those two pieces of mildly bad news. He worked on his fastball command this season and it’s expected to improve, as he’s a multi-sport kid with limited innings/experience and the athleticism and feel for pitching at a young age are good indicators. He sits 91-94 and hits 95 mph often with a fluid, simple delivery and a short stride, though some scouts think he’ll settle with a 55 fastball at maturity (which is 91-93 mph). Stewart’s velo dipped some late in the year when he was tired (somewhat expected), sitting 88-91 mph in his last instructs start, but he hit 97 mph in high school so scouts expect the zip to return to his fastball next year.
The curveball and changeup both made strides this year after Stewart threw a slider as his primary out-pitch in high school. On the pessimistic side, some scouts don’t give Stewart a future 60 pitch and, while he’s a good athlete, don’t think he’ll have better than average command; I’ve split the difference here. For those worried about the K rate, Pirates top-5 overall pick (also a Texas prep righty) Jameson Taillon had a similar issue when working on fastball command in his first full year in Low-A; his K rate jumped the next season in High-A.
Summation: The upside here is a #2/3 starter, but it’s still early to assume that will be what happens. He’ll have a lot of eyes on him next year, expecting flashy stuff and a flashy pedigree to manifest itself in flashy numbers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, High (4 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: High-A, 2016: Double-A, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
6. Alex Meyer, RHP
Current Level/Age: AAA/24.7, 6’9/220, R/R
Drafted: 23rd overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Kentucky by WSH for $2.0 million bonus
Fastball: 70/80, Slider: 60/65, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45
Scouting Report: The 6’9/220 monster sat 98-100 mph for two innings in the above video from last year’s Arizona Fall League debut. He surprised some scouts by lasting the whole season in the rotation at Triple-A this year, throwing 130.1 innings with lesser but still elite stuff, sitting 93-98 with plus life and the knockout slider. Meyer’s changeup has improved and flashes solid-average while his huge frame and long limbs give him trouble commanding his pitches and repeating his delivery. Most scouts think he ends up as a shutdown closer, but the Twins are trying to make him a starter and there’s still a chance Meyer gets there. If he can tone everything down to where it’s repeatable, the upside is probably a #3 starter but this seems destined for the bullpen at some point.
Summation: Meyer should get a real chance to stick in spring training, but likely goes back to Triple-A to try to improve his command until there are some injuries that make room for him on the big club.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter or closer, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
Video Credit to Christopher Blessing
7. Jorge Polanco, 2B
Current Level/Age: MLB/21.2, 5’11/175, B/R
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $775,000 out of Dominican on 7/6/09
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 30/40, Run: 50/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Polanco is easy to like as you can project all five tools to be at least average, though his line drive hitting approach may not get to all his raw power. He’s played a lot of shortstop in the minors and is good enough to stay there for now to see if he can stick long-term, but most scouts think he’s fringy at the position and his tools fit better at second base, where he could be above average. He’s only an average runner now and power isn’t a big part of his game, though he could grow into 12-15 homer power in time. The calling card here is an advanced, smooth stroke from both sides.
Summation: Polanco will spend much of 2015 in the upper levels, but should get at least another cup of coffee in 2015 like he did at the end of 2014. Brian Dozier‘s emergence may push Polanco into more of a utility role or even an audition at shortstop if Escobar backs up.
Upside: .280/.350/.425, above average 2B defense
FV/Risk: 50, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
45 FV Prospects
8. Lewis Thorpe, LHP Video: The 6’2 Australian lefty has made a lot of progress since signing and, luckily, an arm scare late in the season turned out to just be an elbow strain, so he’s still on track. He sits in the low 90’s with an above average changeup as his best secondary pitch and a curveball that’s below average now but will be at least average. Scouts like him because he’s already showing advanced feel attributes at a young age with limited innings that could help him to take off when his off-speed stuff gets more consistent.
9. Trevor May, RHP Video: May was barely eligible for this list as he logged 45.2 innings in the big leagues as a starter down the stretch. The finish to his delivery is a little stiff, the command can wander and the stuff can flatten out up in the zone, but May is 6’5/215 with the stuff to start. He sits 90-94 and has a slider, curveball and changeup that are all at least average, with the changeup the best of the bunch and more often than not above average.
10. Nick Burdi, RHP Video: Burdi is big (6’5/215) and throws real hard (96-98, hitting 101 mph) with a plus slider and an aggressive approach, so it’s easy to see why he went in the 2nd round in June. He has an average changeup that he rarely uses but the delivery is too high effort to start and the command is just good enough to let the fastball-slider combo play. Burdi needs another year in the minors but could be an option in 2016.
11. Stuart Turner, C Video: Turner isn’t the guy you get excited about at first glance, but he might turn into a big league starter behind the plate. He’s an advanced catch-and-throw guy that gives pitchers a big target, he calls his own games and has the plus arm to shut down the running game. Turner flashes fringe-average raw power in BP but is more of a short-to-the-ball line drive type in games.
12. J.T. Chargois, RHP Video: Chargois was a 2nd round pick in 2012 as a reliever out of Rice that was interesting as an athletic lefty hitter whose velocity jumped late in his college career. His pro career has been very limited due to Tommy John surgery; Chargois made his first appearance on a mound in exactly two years earlier this month in instructional league. When drafted, he sat 91-95 mph with an above average to plus slider and changeup then, after singing, the Twins cleaned up his delivery and he was 94-96 mph in 2012 instructs. Last week, he sat 97-100 mph, flashing the same crispness to his off-speed pitches. As a reliever-only with very little track record and recent surgery, it’s risky to put Chargois this high (a month ago, a scout told me he assumed Chargois would never regain his pre-draft stuff), but his ceiling is arguably higher than Burdi’s.
13. Adam Walker, RF Video: Walker is a 6’4/225 physical specimen who looks like an NFL tight end; his dad also played for the Vikings. Walker shows plus raw power in BP. He has the arm for right but his accuracy and defense are lacking, so he may be moved to left field, but the real question is if he’ll make enough contact to get to his power in games. Walker has made some adjustments and picked better pitches to hit this season, but there’s still a ways to go.
14. Max Kepler, LF Video: Kepler signed for $800,000 in 2009 out of Germany, at the time the biggest bonus ever to a European prospect. He’s an excellent athlete at 6’4/205, thanks to his parents who are both ballet dancers. Kepler has a fringy arm that limits him to left field in the big leaguers but the other four tools are average to above and he has experience playing first base and all three outfield positions.
40 FV Prospects
15. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP Video: The lean lefty is up to 6’5/205 and sits 88-92 touching 94 mph now, but could add a tick or two to that in time. He should scrap the below average curveball and is developing a slider that could be average, to go with his above average changeup and advanced command for his age. There’s the plane and physical projection to dream that more is coming to fit as a back-end starter, but there’s still work to be done here.
16. Eddie Rosario, CF Video: Everyone I talked to about Rosario brought up 1) this guy can hit and 2) some version of concerns about makeup/attitude/maturity/drug suspension. The Twins acknowledge there have been some growing pains but that he’s moved past most or all of it now and has moved from second base to the outfield now with Brian Dozier‘s emergence in the big leagues. He has only 45 raw power so he needs to play up the middle to profile but he has enough instincts that his 50 speed could work in center field.
17. Michael Cederoth, RHP Video: Heavily hyped San Diego State righty hit 100 mph often as sophomore but was bumped to bullpen after one outing this spring, sliding him from a potential first rounder down to the third round. The Twins will keep him as a starter as long as possible; he sits 93-96 and hits 97 mph in that role with four pitches led by a potential 55 curveball but the delivery/command still need lots of work to keep him from the bullpen. The org is only making small tweaks to his delivery and letting him do it his way, while some scouts think to stick as a starter, Cederoth may need a mechanical overhaul.
18. Travis Harrison, LF Video: Harrison has settled in left field after playing some third base the last few years and, while the tools aren’t huge, there’s fringe to average tools across the board with good makeup. He shortened up his swing this year for more contact and less game power, so there’s still a balance to be struck with the offensive approach, but there’s enough here to see a platoon/bench big league role.
19. Mason Melotakis, LHP Video: The 2012 2nd rounder was sent out as a starter after signing, but moved to relief this season and the electric stuff from college came back. Melotakis sits 93-96 and hits 97 mph out of the pen with an above average power curveball with fringy command, but had to be pulled from an Arizona Fall League assignment due to a sore elbow.
20. Cameron Booser, LHP Video: Booser was a known prospect at an Arizona JC and an arm injury kept him off the mound most of his draft year, but solid post-draft outings prompted the Twins to scoop him up for $10,000 as an undrafted free agent. In his second year in the system, the stuff exploded: he sat 89-93 in the middle of the summer, 92-94 hitting 96 mph late in the summer and then sat 95-96 and hit 99 mph in instructs this month. The slider flashes above average to plus and he’s a 6’3/225 lefty, so there’s lots to like, despite the lack of track record (35 pro innings, all in short-season leagues) and advanced age (22).
21. Taylor Rogers, LHP Video: Surrounded on this list by power relievers, it’s hard to get excited about Rogers, but he has a chance to be a big league starter. He sits 90-93 and hits 94 mph with an average curveball and fringy change that needs to improve, though he has the command to make it work as a back-end starter.
22. Zach Jones, RHP Video: Jones has had some arm problems, including surgery for an aneurysm in his right shoulder that shelved him for much of this year, though as a 6’1 reliever with a busy delivery, you expect to encounter some health bumps. In instructs this month, Jones was back to normal, sitting 96-98 and hitting 99 mph with life and a slider that was solid-average at times. The command and consistency still vary and there isn’t a knockout secondary pitch, but the velocity could help him move quickly.
23. Amaurys Minier, RF Video: He signed for $1.4 million in the 2012 July 2nd class and the carrying tools of raw power and arm strength are both above average to plus, but there’s still some concerns. Scouts have some reservations about his ability to make contact outside of rookie ball and while Minier’s arm fits in right field, he’s so rough in the outfield, some have suggested he might end up in left field or even as a DH if that doesn’t improve soon.
24. Huascar Ynoa, RHP Video: The 6’2/180 Dominican righty is the younger brother of A’s Michael Ynoa (who shattered the bonus record signing for $4.25 million in 200 and hasn’t pitched since signing for $800,000 in this year’s July 2nd class. At his best, the younger Ynoa looked like a mid-rotation type that pitched 90-92 and hit 93 mph with a curveball and changeup that flashed above average but, as July 2nd neared, his velo dipped into the high 80’s and his command backed up.
25. Fernando Romero, RHP Video: he went down after three starts this year with an elbow injury that led to TJ, he’s a slam-dunk reliever and he was still working out his command at the time of the injury. That said, there’s lots to like here as Romero sat 93-95 and hit 98 mph with a mid-80’s power slider that flashed above average to plus potential.
26. Sean Gilmartin. LHP Video: Gilmartin is the prototypical crafty lefty that probably fits best as a spot starter/swing man but the elements are here to start if the athletic lefty’s command plays up. He normally sits 86-91 with some life, an average curveball and a plus changeup.
27. Aaron Slegers, RHP Video: 6’10/250 righty draws obvious Chris Young comparisons due to his frame, but also the easy delivery that will allow him to continue as a starter up the ladder. Slegers is surprisingly coordinated for his size and sits at 90-92 mph with an average three pitch mix that plays up due to his plane.
28. Jake Reed, RHP Video: 2014 5th rounder surprised the Twins with how quickly he succeeded after signing. At times for Oregon, Reed’s delivery was comically high effort/maintenance and with only small tweaks, the Twins have him consistently throwing lots of strikes with 93-95 mph fastball and average slider; he could move fast next year.
Cistulli’s Guy
Nate Roberts, OF (Posthumous Recognition)
Despite the club’s organizational depth — or perhaps because of it — there’s a dearth of proper fringe-type prospects within Minnesota’s high-ish minor-league levels. Levi Michael and Aderlin Mejia, both of whom McDaniel mentions below, are certainly candidates for that distinction, but the seemingly total absence of power in both cases puts an indecent amount of pressure on their plate discipline and contact skills. Right-hander Brandon Poulson (also invoked by McDaniel below) merits consideration, but is a substantial distance from the majors. Instead, the most notable of the Twins’ fringe types actually isn’t a Twin any longer, having been released by the club at the end of July after injuries conspired to allow him just 74 plate appearances between 2013 and -14 combined. When he did play, however, Roberts commanded the strike zone brilliantly, producing walk and strikeout rates of 11.9% and 14.5%, respectively — and a not entirely negligible 13 homers — over 862 minor-league plate appearances. Given his age and health concerns, though, this brief passage might amount merely to a posthumous recognition of his talents.
Others Of Note
The Twins have one of the deeper systems in the game, so while they have the longest list of ranked prospects I’ve done so far, there’s a few more guys that could be included depending on which scout you’re talking to. SS Levi Michael is a former 1st rounder that some scouts think fits better at second base and he has above average speed, but the bat is fringy with below average power, so there’s only utility upside. SS Aderlin Mejia played alongside Michael in High-A this year and has even less power and a similarly light bat, but has a better chance to stick at shortstop. The other upper level infielder that some scouts have big leagues grades on is 3B Niko Goodrum; he’s 6’3, is a 55 runner and can play multiple positions, so scouts think the athlete will find a way to hit his way into a big league audition.
In the short season leagues, a couple bats show promise worth monitoring: C/RF Jorge Fernandez (bat-first prospect cleaned up his body and took a step forward this year, could fit at multiple positions), C Rainis Silva (advanced defensive catcher with easy plus arm and developing feel to hit), RF Roberto Gonzalez (Video 2014 prep draftee has flashed five above average tools but bat regressed this year and he was old for 2014 prep class) and 1B Lewin Diaz (Video got a $1.4 million bonus in last year’s July 2nd period due to plus lefty raw power but still some work to do making contact; will come to GCL next year).
As for the arms, there’s three righties in the upper levels that also just missed the list: Michael Tonkin (up/down type talent already has been in big leagues; 6’7/220 righty’s weapon is plus fastball), Jason Adam (recently acquired from Royals for Josh Willingham, stuff is solid-average with below average command for 6th/7th inning fit) and Matt Summers (stout righty sits 93-96 and hit 99 mph with average-ish slider but command is iffy and he ended year with shoulder tendonitis). Two former-SEC arms are notable but almost complete opposites: former Arkansas righty D.J. Baxendale (Video) has a fringy fastball/changeup and flashes above average curveball/command that could be enough to stick in a rotation while former LSU righty Ryan Eades (Video) still has above average stuff across the board, but the delivery/command are a real problem that Twins’ instructors are working to correct.
The rest of the arms worth mentioning are raw, low level arm strength righties: Yorman Landa (up to 98 with life before TJ but 6’0 at most and mostly just arm strength right now), C.K. Irby (relief arm is only 6’1 but is very good athlete with plus fastball and above average curve), John Curtiss (90-95 with tight slider but hit 97 mph before thoracic outlet syndrome at Texas), Randy LeBlanc (great frame and 90-95 mph heater, but tight curveball & command are work in progress), Chih-Wei Hu (sits 90-91 and hits 95 mph as starter with fringy to below average off-speed & command; projects for relief where the heater could play up) and Felix Jorge (up to 95 mph last year at age 19, now 87-90 with no clear explanation why). The lefty of the group is 2014 4th rounder Sam Clay (Video above average fastball/slider combo but stuff and command both vary a good bit) while the craziest story belongs to undrafted free agent righty Brandon Poulson (unknown 6’6/240 art school kid hit 100 mph with clean arm and good athleticism in small college summer league but is 24 and is all velo now) which is covered in more detail by Jeff Passan. Finally, at the very lowest level, the two arms to watch from the DSL that will be coming to the GCL next year and have some upside are Jose Martinez and Moises Gomez.
They drafted 8 pitchers in their first 10 picks last June with scouts projecting all of them to be relievers, though the Twins will develop some as starters for now. Minnesota now has, by my count, 10 pitchers in the system that have recently hit 98 mph or higher, which is close to the most in baseball, if not the most. Twins execs say it was more situational that they drafted the pitchability type arms in the past, but that there has been a concerted effort to move more toward acquiring power arms, even if they project as relievers.
Here’s the primer for the series and a disclaimer about how we don’t really know anything. See the links above for the ongoing series about how I evaluate, including a five-part on the ever-complicated hit tool.
Most of what you need to know for this list is at the above links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below, I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets that Minnesota has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Houston Astros.
Big League Growth Assets
1. Oswaldo Arcia, RF, Age 23
2. Eduardo Escobar, SS, Age 25
3. Josmil Pinto, C/DH, Age 25
4. Kennys Vargas, 1B/DH, Age 24
5. Danny Santana, UT, Age 23
6. Aaron Hicks, CF, Age 24
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
The Twins are firmly in rebuilding mode, but in that awkward stage when their young talent hasn’t developed yet, so they find themselves filling roster spots with veterans who have no real future with the organization. These kinds of seasons give the team chances to find unexpected core pieces like Brian Dozier, but it also forces the team’s fan base to sit through way too much of Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. They aren’t particularly close to contending, so expect a few more years of sifting until they finally try and put a contender on the field again.
50+ FV Prospects
1. Byron Buxton, CF
Current Level/Age: AA/20.8, 6’2/190, R/R
Drafted: 2nd overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Georgia HS by MIN for $6.0 million bonus
Hit: 30/60, Raw Power: 50/55, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 80/80, Field: 65/70, Throw: 65/65
Scouting Report: Buxton was seen as the consensus top prospect in the 2012 draft and it was easy to see with literally-off-the-charts speed, an easy plus arm, advanced feel to defend and a projectable frame to go with ridiculous athleticism, looseness and bat speed. The concern was on the bat and his inconsistent hitting mechanics, which have been slowly corrected while his hitting performance has been better than even the Twins expected. Buxton was concussed in an ugly outfield collision shortly after being promoted to AA, but has been in instructs and will go to the Arizona Fall League for extra at bats to make up for lost time. Buxton battled nagging injuries this season and seemed like his timing was off, with most scouts and Twins execs calling it a lost year that he’ll look to bounce back from with a clean bill of health in 2015. The 70 grade on his defense may be a little light and he may end up closer to a 70 hitter if he can rebound next year from a tough 2015.
Summation: Buxton is still on the fast track and could hit his way to the the big leagues in 2015 with a regular spot in 2016, but we’ll know more after the AFL and his early performance in 2015 to know how much time he needs in the minors.
Upside: .290/.355/.470, plus-plus CF defense & baserunning value
FV/Risk: 70, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
2. Miguel Sano, 3B
Current Level/Age: AA/21.4, 6’4/235, R/R
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $3.15 million out of Dominican on 10/9/09
Hit: 30/50, Raw Power: 80/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 45/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: Sano missed all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery but is a participating in all phases of instructs right now, but is being held out of games to avoid any additional injuries. He had a very high profile signing process, complete with a documentary, accusations of falsifying his age, bone scans and a surprise late entrant scooping up the player. He was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent with 80 raw power and the ability to stay in the infield to go with advanced feel to hit. That’s all still technically true, but, like a similar super-elite July 2nd prospect, Miguel Cabrera, Sano has put on a lot of weight but at an even younger age.
Sano has a plus arm and good hands, but his lack of first step quickness and arm accuracy holds back his ability to stick at the position. Like Joey Gallo with the Rangers, the team will leave him at third as long as possible, but scouts speculate that right field or first base is where Sano will end up. There are also some concerns about Sano’s hitting ability; not that he’s can’t hit in the traditional sense, but that his size, power type and at times aggressive approach could lead to a .250 or .260 average and his walk rates may regress when big league pitchers can exploit his weaknesses. None of this has happened yet as Sano is still more talented than everyone that he’s faced so far, but scouts are paid to project the future, so that’s something to watch going forward. The 70 game power grade converts to 30-35 homers, though that could end up being a little light in the end.
Summation: The contact and defensive issues will be important to watch next season, but I wouldn’t expect to see a full 100% Sano until the end of 2015. He should go straight to the upper levels of the minors for 2015 and may get a big league look depending on how well he performs, with 2016 a reasonable time to look for an extended big league audition. There are some concerns that Sano isn’t as mentally mature as some other elite prospects, so it will be interesting to see what kind of shape he’s in for spring training following over a year of rehab.
Upside: .275/.360/.525, fringy 3B defense, negative baserunning value
FV/Risk: 60, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
3. Jose Berrios, RHP
Current Level/Age: AAA/20.3, 6’0/190, R/R
Drafted: 32nd overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Puerto Rico HS by MIN for $1.55 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50
Scouting Report: Berrios may not be big at 6’0/190, but scouts rave about his athleticism, makeup and work ethic. His velocity has slowly improved since high school in Puerto Rico (where they don’t play many games) and now sits at 93-96, hitting 98 mph. There isn’t a ton of plane or life to the pitch, but his clean arm action and deceptively easy delivery helps the heater sneak up on hitters. Berrios calls his breaking pitches a slow and fast curveball, but the fast one plays like a slider and both are above average; scouts will call one or the other plus depending on the day, but the slower curve gets the better grade more often. His changeup is above average and may be plus one day, helping to keep hitters off his fastball. One scout compared him to Javier Vazquez.
Summation: The stuff and command are both there but scouts and Twins execs are gravitating to the off-the-field attributes that have allowed Berrios to improve so quickly (High-A to Triple-A this season at age 19/20) to push for him to be ranked this high. He could get a big league taste next season but more likely gets up and sticks in 2016.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 starter, Low (2 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: MLB
4. Nick Gordon, SS
Current Level/Age: SS/18.9, 6’1/175, L/R
Drafted: 5th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of Florida HS by MIN for $3.851 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 45/50, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 50/50+, Field: 50/55, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: Nick is the son of Tom Gordon and the brother of Dee Gordon, so the bloodlines are good and when Nick was a high school sophomore, his senior teammates were first rounders Jesse Winker and Walker Weickel. Combine that with the fact that Nick was noticeable as a top prospect in his class as early as his freshman year and he seemed to be at every major showcase or tournament his entire prep career and it’s easy to see why scout were comfortable with him by draft time. Between October and January showcases, Gordon appeared to put on about 10 pounds and mature physically, turning him from a late first rounder into a top 10 pick.
Gordon has above average foot speed and bat speed to go with good size for a shortstop, but it’s his polish at a young age that helps him stand out. He has good feel for the bat head and the ability to hit ball with power to the opposite field, potentially hitting 15-18 homers per year at maturity. His first step is a little slow, so his timed game speed is closer to average and he relies on great instincts and positioning to give him the range to project as a shortstop, due in part to working with family friend Barry Larkin this year. If his range is a bit ordinary, Gordon’s hands are above average and his arm is plus, sitting 91-94 and hitting 95 with an above average curveball when he pitches, which he stopped doing this year to focus on being a shortstop.
Summation: Gordon’s 2014 ended prematurely with a broken finger but he will be fine for 2015 and will go to Low-A. He could move quickly if he hits the ground running offensively.
Upside: .280/.350/.440, average SS defense
FV/Risk: 55, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A/AA, 2017: AA/AAA, 2018: AAA/MLB, 2019: MLB
Video Credit to Cubs Prospect Watch
5. Kohl Stewart, RHP
Current Level/Age: Low-A/20.0, 6’3/195, R/R
Drafted: 4th overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Texas HS by MIN for $4.544 million bonus
Fastball: 50/60, Curveball: 50/60, Slider: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Stewart ended his first full season with some shoulder inflammation and only 6.4 K/9, but there’s a lot more to like than those two pieces of mildly bad news. He worked on his fastball command this season and it’s expected to improve, as he’s a multi-sport kid with limited innings/experience and the athleticism and feel for pitching at a young age are good indicators. He sits 91-94 and hits 95 mph often with a fluid, simple delivery and a short stride, though some scouts think he’ll settle with a 55 fastball at maturity (which is 91-93 mph). Stewart’s velo dipped some late in the year when he was tired (somewhat expected), sitting 88-91 mph in his last instructs start, but he hit 97 mph in high school so scouts expect the zip to return to his fastball next year.
The curveball and changeup both made strides this year after Stewart threw a slider as his primary out-pitch in high school. On the pessimistic side, some scouts don’t give Stewart a future 60 pitch and, while he’s a good athlete, don’t think he’ll have better than average command; I’ve split the difference here. For those worried about the K rate, Pirates top-5 overall pick (also a Texas prep righty) Jameson Taillon had a similar issue when working on fastball command in his first full year in Low-A; his K rate jumped the next season in High-A.
Summation: The upside here is a #2/3 starter, but it’s still early to assume that will be what happens. He’ll have a lot of eyes on him next year, expecting flashy stuff and a flashy pedigree to manifest itself in flashy numbers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, High (4 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: High-A, 2016: Double-A, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
6. Alex Meyer, RHP
Current Level/Age: AAA/24.7, 6’9/220, R/R
Drafted: 23rd overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Kentucky by WSH for $2.0 million bonus
Fastball: 70/80, Slider: 60/65, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45
Scouting Report: The 6’9/220 monster sat 98-100 mph for two innings in the above video from last year’s Arizona Fall League debut. He surprised some scouts by lasting the whole season in the rotation at Triple-A this year, throwing 130.1 innings with lesser but still elite stuff, sitting 93-98 with plus life and the knockout slider. Meyer’s changeup has improved and flashes solid-average while his huge frame and long limbs give him trouble commanding his pitches and repeating his delivery. Most scouts think he ends up as a shutdown closer, but the Twins are trying to make him a starter and there’s still a chance Meyer gets there. If he can tone everything down to where it’s repeatable, the upside is probably a #3 starter but this seems destined for the bullpen at some point.
Summation: Meyer should get a real chance to stick in spring training, but likely goes back to Triple-A to try to improve his command until there are some injuries that make room for him on the big club.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter or closer, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
Video Credit to Christopher Blessing
7. Jorge Polanco, 2B
Current Level/Age: MLB/21.2, 5’11/175, B/R
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for $775,000 out of Dominican on 7/6/09
Hit: 40/55, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 30/40, Run: 50/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Polanco is easy to like as you can project all five tools to be at least average, though his line drive hitting approach may not get to all his raw power. He’s played a lot of shortstop in the minors and is good enough to stay there for now to see if he can stick long-term, but most scouts think he’s fringy at the position and his tools fit better at second base, where he could be above average. He’s only an average runner now and power isn’t a big part of his game, though he could grow into 12-15 homer power in time. The calling card here is an advanced, smooth stroke from both sides.
Summation: Polanco will spend much of 2015 in the upper levels, but should get at least another cup of coffee in 2015 like he did at the end of 2014. Brian Dozier‘s emergence may push Polanco into more of a utility role or even an audition at shortstop if Escobar backs up.
Upside: .280/.350/.425, above average 2B defense
FV/Risk: 50, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
45 FV Prospects
8. Lewis Thorpe, LHP Video: The 6’2 Australian lefty has made a lot of progress since signing and, luckily, an arm scare late in the season turned out to just be an elbow strain, so he’s still on track. He sits in the low 90’s with an above average changeup as his best secondary pitch and a curveball that’s below average now but will be at least average. Scouts like him because he’s already showing advanced feel attributes at a young age with limited innings that could help him to take off when his off-speed stuff gets more consistent.
9. Trevor May, RHP Video: May was barely eligible for this list as he logged 45.2 innings in the big leagues as a starter down the stretch. The finish to his delivery is a little stiff, the command can wander and the stuff can flatten out up in the zone, but May is 6’5/215 with the stuff to start. He sits 90-94 and has a slider, curveball and changeup that are all at least average, with the changeup the best of the bunch and more often than not above average.
10. Nick Burdi, RHP Video: Burdi is big (6’5/215) and throws real hard (96-98, hitting 101 mph) with a plus slider and an aggressive approach, so it’s easy to see why he went in the 2nd round in June. He has an average changeup that he rarely uses but the delivery is too high effort to start and the command is just good enough to let the fastball-slider combo play. Burdi needs another year in the minors but could be an option in 2016.
11. Stuart Turner, C Video: Turner isn’t the guy you get excited about at first glance, but he might turn into a big league starter behind the plate. He’s an advanced catch-and-throw guy that gives pitchers a big target, he calls his own games and has the plus arm to shut down the running game. Turner flashes fringe-average raw power in BP but is more of a short-to-the-ball line drive type in games.
12. J.T. Chargois, RHP Video: Chargois was a 2nd round pick in 2012 as a reliever out of Rice that was interesting as an athletic lefty hitter whose velocity jumped late in his college career. His pro career has been very limited due to Tommy John surgery; Chargois made his first appearance on a mound in exactly two years earlier this month in instructional league. When drafted, he sat 91-95 mph with an above average to plus slider and changeup then, after singing, the Twins cleaned up his delivery and he was 94-96 mph in 2012 instructs. Last week, he sat 97-100 mph, flashing the same crispness to his off-speed pitches. As a reliever-only with very little track record and recent surgery, it’s risky to put Chargois this high (a month ago, a scout told me he assumed Chargois would never regain his pre-draft stuff), but his ceiling is arguably higher than Burdi’s.
13. Adam Walker, RF Video: Walker is a 6’4/225 physical specimen who looks like an NFL tight end; his dad also played for the Vikings. Walker shows plus raw power in BP. He has the arm for right but his accuracy and defense are lacking, so he may be moved to left field, but the real question is if he’ll make enough contact to get to his power in games. Walker has made some adjustments and picked better pitches to hit this season, but there’s still a ways to go.
14. Max Kepler, LF Video: Kepler signed for $800,000 in 2009 out of Germany, at the time the biggest bonus ever to a European prospect. He’s an excellent athlete at 6’4/205, thanks to his parents who are both ballet dancers. Kepler has a fringy arm that limits him to left field in the big leaguers but the other four tools are average to above and he has experience playing first base and all three outfield positions.
40 FV Prospects
15. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP Video: The lean lefty is up to 6’5/205 and sits 88-92 touching 94 mph now, but could add a tick or two to that in time. He should scrap the below average curveball and is developing a slider that could be average, to go with his above average changeup and advanced command for his age. There’s the plane and physical projection to dream that more is coming to fit as a back-end starter, but there’s still work to be done here.
16. Eddie Rosario, CF Video: Everyone I talked to about Rosario brought up 1) this guy can hit and 2) some version of concerns about makeup/attitude/maturity/drug suspension. The Twins acknowledge there have been some growing pains but that he’s moved past most or all of it now and has moved from second base to the outfield now with Brian Dozier‘s emergence in the big leagues. He has only 45 raw power so he needs to play up the middle to profile but he has enough instincts that his 50 speed could work in center field.
17. Michael Cederoth, RHP Video: Heavily hyped San Diego State righty hit 100 mph often as sophomore but was bumped to bullpen after one outing this spring, sliding him from a potential first rounder down to the third round. The Twins will keep him as a starter as long as possible; he sits 93-96 and hits 97 mph in that role with four pitches led by a potential 55 curveball but the delivery/command still need lots of work to keep him from the bullpen. The org is only making small tweaks to his delivery and letting him do it his way, while some scouts think to stick as a starter, Cederoth may need a mechanical overhaul.
18. Travis Harrison, LF Video: Harrison has settled in left field after playing some third base the last few years and, while the tools aren’t huge, there’s fringe to average tools across the board with good makeup. He shortened up his swing this year for more contact and less game power, so there’s still a balance to be struck with the offensive approach, but there’s enough here to see a platoon/bench big league role.
19. Mason Melotakis, LHP Video: The 2012 2nd rounder was sent out as a starter after signing, but moved to relief this season and the electric stuff from college came back. Melotakis sits 93-96 and hits 97 mph out of the pen with an above average power curveball with fringy command, but had to be pulled from an Arizona Fall League assignment due to a sore elbow.
20. Cameron Booser, LHP Video: Booser was a known prospect at an Arizona JC and an arm injury kept him off the mound most of his draft year, but solid post-draft outings prompted the Twins to scoop him up for $10,000 as an undrafted free agent. In his second year in the system, the stuff exploded: he sat 89-93 in the middle of the summer, 92-94 hitting 96 mph late in the summer and then sat 95-96 and hit 99 mph in instructs this month. The slider flashes above average to plus and he’s a 6’3/225 lefty, so there’s lots to like, despite the lack of track record (35 pro innings, all in short-season leagues) and advanced age (22).
21. Taylor Rogers, LHP Video: Surrounded on this list by power relievers, it’s hard to get excited about Rogers, but he has a chance to be a big league starter. He sits 90-93 and hits 94 mph with an average curveball and fringy change that needs to improve, though he has the command to make it work as a back-end starter.
22. Zach Jones, RHP Video: Jones has had some arm problems, including surgery for an aneurysm in his right shoulder that shelved him for much of this year, though as a 6’1 reliever with a busy delivery, you expect to encounter some health bumps. In instructs this month, Jones was back to normal, sitting 96-98 and hitting 99 mph with life and a slider that was solid-average at times. The command and consistency still vary and there isn’t a knockout secondary pitch, but the velocity could help him move quickly.
23. Amaurys Minier, RF Video: He signed for $1.4 million in the 2012 July 2nd class and the carrying tools of raw power and arm strength are both above average to plus, but there’s still some concerns. Scouts have some reservations about his ability to make contact outside of rookie ball and while Minier’s arm fits in right field, he’s so rough in the outfield, some have suggested he might end up in left field or even as a DH if that doesn’t improve soon.
24. Huascar Ynoa, RHP Video: The 6’2/180 Dominican righty is the younger brother of A’s Michael Ynoa (who shattered the bonus record signing for $4.25 million in 200
and hasn’t pitched since signing for $800,000 in this year’s July 2nd class. At his best, the younger Ynoa looked like a mid-rotation type that pitched 90-92 and hit 93 mph with a curveball and changeup that flashed above average but, as July 2nd neared, his velo dipped into the high 80’s and his command backed up.25. Fernando Romero, RHP Video: he went down after three starts this year with an elbow injury that led to TJ, he’s a slam-dunk reliever and he was still working out his command at the time of the injury. That said, there’s lots to like here as Romero sat 93-95 and hit 98 mph with a mid-80’s power slider that flashed above average to plus potential.
26. Sean Gilmartin. LHP Video: Gilmartin is the prototypical crafty lefty that probably fits best as a spot starter/swing man but the elements are here to start if the athletic lefty’s command plays up. He normally sits 86-91 with some life, an average curveball and a plus changeup.
27. Aaron Slegers, RHP Video: 6’10/250 righty draws obvious Chris Young comparisons due to his frame, but also the easy delivery that will allow him to continue as a starter up the ladder. Slegers is surprisingly coordinated for his size and sits at 90-92 mph with an average three pitch mix that plays up due to his plane.
28. Jake Reed, RHP Video: 2014 5th rounder surprised the Twins with how quickly he succeeded after signing. At times for Oregon, Reed’s delivery was comically high effort/maintenance and with only small tweaks, the Twins have him consistently throwing lots of strikes with 93-95 mph fastball and average slider; he could move fast next year.
Cistulli’s Guy
Nate Roberts, OF (Posthumous Recognition)
Despite the club’s organizational depth — or perhaps because of it — there’s a dearth of proper fringe-type prospects within Minnesota’s high-ish minor-league levels. Levi Michael and Aderlin Mejia, both of whom McDaniel mentions below, are certainly candidates for that distinction, but the seemingly total absence of power in both cases puts an indecent amount of pressure on their plate discipline and contact skills. Right-hander Brandon Poulson (also invoked by McDaniel below) merits consideration, but is a substantial distance from the majors. Instead, the most notable of the Twins’ fringe types actually isn’t a Twin any longer, having been released by the club at the end of July after injuries conspired to allow him just 74 plate appearances between 2013 and -14 combined. When he did play, however, Roberts commanded the strike zone brilliantly, producing walk and strikeout rates of 11.9% and 14.5%, respectively — and a not entirely negligible 13 homers — over 862 minor-league plate appearances. Given his age and health concerns, though, this brief passage might amount merely to a posthumous recognition of his talents.
Others Of Note
The Twins have one of the deeper systems in the game, so while they have the longest list of ranked prospects I’ve done so far, there’s a few more guys that could be included depending on which scout you’re talking to. SS Levi Michael is a former 1st rounder that some scouts think fits better at second base and he has above average speed, but the bat is fringy with below average power, so there’s only utility upside. SS Aderlin Mejia played alongside Michael in High-A this year and has even less power and a similarly light bat, but has a better chance to stick at shortstop. The other upper level infielder that some scouts have big leagues grades on is 3B Niko Goodrum; he’s 6’3, is a 55 runner and can play multiple positions, so scouts think the athlete will find a way to hit his way into a big league audition.
In the short season leagues, a couple bats show promise worth monitoring: C/RF Jorge Fernandez (bat-first prospect cleaned up his body and took a step forward this year, could fit at multiple positions), C Rainis Silva (advanced defensive catcher with easy plus arm and developing feel to hit), RF Roberto Gonzalez (Video 2014 prep draftee has flashed five above average tools but bat regressed this year and he was old for 2014 prep class) and 1B Lewin Diaz (Video got a $1.4 million bonus in last year’s July 2nd period due to plus lefty raw power but still some work to do making contact; will come to GCL next year).
As for the arms, there’s three righties in the upper levels that also just missed the list: Michael Tonkin (up/down type talent already has been in big leagues; 6’7/220 righty’s weapon is plus fastball), Jason Adam (recently acquired from Royals for Josh Willingham, stuff is solid-average with below average command for 6th/7th inning fit) and Matt Summers (stout righty sits 93-96 and hit 99 mph with average-ish slider but command is iffy and he ended year with shoulder tendonitis). Two former-SEC arms are notable but almost complete opposites: former Arkansas righty D.J. Baxendale (Video) has a fringy fastball/changeup and flashes above average curveball/command that could be enough to stick in a rotation while former LSU righty Ryan Eades (Video) still has above average stuff across the board, but the delivery/command are a real problem that Twins’ instructors are working to correct.
The rest of the arms worth mentioning are raw, low level arm strength righties: Yorman Landa (up to 98 with life before TJ but 6’0 at most and mostly just arm strength right now), C.K. Irby (relief arm is only 6’1 but is very good athlete with plus fastball and above average curve), John Curtiss (90-95 with tight slider but hit 97 mph before thoracic outlet syndrome at Texas), Randy LeBlanc (great frame and 90-95 mph heater, but tight curveball & command are work in progress), Chih-Wei Hu (sits 90-91 and hits 95 mph as starter with fringy to below average off-speed & command; projects for relief where the heater could play up) and Felix Jorge (up to 95 mph last year at age 19, now 87-90 with no clear explanation why). The lefty of the group is 2014 4th rounder Sam Clay (Video above average fastball/slider combo but stuff and command both vary a good bit) while the craziest story belongs to undrafted free agent righty Brandon Poulson (unknown 6’6/240 art school kid hit 100 mph with clean arm and good athleticism in small college summer league but is 24 and is all velo now) which is covered in more detail by Jeff Passan. Finally, at the very lowest level, the two arms to watch from the DSL that will be coming to the GCL next year and have some upside are Jose Martinez and Moises Gomez.
Good to be back
And your team is up next too
Evaluating the Prospects: Houston Astros.
Evaluating the Prospects: Chicago Cubs.
And your team is up next too
Evaluating the Prospects: Houston Astros.
The Astros have an above average system as far as depth and high end talent, though that’s expected given their draft position and international bonus pools the last few years and where they are in their rebuild plan. The system would obviously look better with LHP Brady Aiken included (I’d rank him 2nd or 3rd, for those wondering), but the top 11 prospects I’ve ranked should all be in Double-A or higher next year. Help is on the way and there’s two more top-10 picks (here’s an early list of candidates) that will be on thdmis list next year to replace some of the graduating talent.
Here’s the primer for the series and a disclaimer about how we don’t really know anything. See the links above for the ongoing series about how I evaluate, including a five-part on the ever-complicated hit tool.
Most of what you need to know for this list is at the above links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below, I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets that Houston has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Boston Red Sox.
Big League Growth Assets
1. George Springer, RF, Age 25
2. Jon Singleton, 1B, Age 23
3. Jake Marisnick, CF, Age 23
4. Robbie Grossman, RF, Age 25
5. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Age 25
6. Jonathan Villar, SS, Age 23
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
The Astros took a significant step forward on the field in 2014, even if it didn’t show up entirely in their record. By BaseRuns, their .478 expected winning percentage put them in a virtual tie with the Atlanta Braves. The 2014 Astros were an actual Major League team, which is a big step from where they had been the previous few years, and the talent headed for Houston should only continue to help. The question is whether the team can get good fast enough to make up all the off-the-field issues that have arisen.
While you never want a GM to make decisions based on his own job security, the Astros front office could probably use a winning season in 2015 to make sure they get to see 2016. The good news is that they might actually have the talent to make that a possibility.
50+ FV Prospects
1. Carlos Correa, SS
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.0, 6’4/205, R/R
Drafted: 1st overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Puerto Rico HS by HOU for $4.8 million bonus
Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 60/65, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 65/65
Scouting Report: Correa was the slightly controversial #1 overall pick in 2012 and the first high Puerto Rican first rounder in some time. As noted below, his below slot bonus allowed the Astros to go over slot for the 5th and 6th prospects on the list, 3B Rio Ruiz and RHP Lance McCullers. Some question the Astros decision to pass on Byron Buxton for Correa, but that race is still relatively close and the other two prospects have done well so far.
Correa had some trouble at the plate in the summer after signing, but raked in 2013 and 2014, until he broke his fibula in June, ending his season. He’s doing sprints now and could be ready to play in at some point this winter, but he’ll take the winter off and show up to Spring Training at 100%.
Correa was seen as a future 3B by most at draft time as a big SS that is fine there now, but with added weight leading to declining speed/range, would likely move off the position around when he’d reach the big leagues. He’s made progress defensively since then and now looks like he may be able to be an average defensive shortstop through his six control years in the big leagues, even if he loses a step of pure speed in the process.
Offensively, Correa is excitingly talented with plus hitting tools across the board and projection to dream for more. It all plays in games, though the game power is still coming along, as it’s usually the last tool to mature. There’s still some concern that his short path to the ball and gap-to-gap approach won’t let him get to all of his raw power, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the necessary adjustments down the road; he has a number of positive indicators like size, age, performance, makeup, aptitude and a rare toolset.
Summation: Correa should go to Double-A at some point next year and, if he feels no ill effects of the leg injury and keeps hitting like he has been, he could be knocking on the door of the majors next year like Kris Bryant was this year (and also would ultimately be left in the minors for service time reasons). Correa isn’t nearly as good of a defender as Troy Tulowitzki, but Correa is as close to that kind of talent at shortstop as we’ve seen since Tulo had his breakout season in 2007.
Upside: .290/.360/.470, average defense & baserunning value
FV/Risk: 65, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
2. Mark Appel, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/23.2, 6’5/225, R/R
Drafted: 1st overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Stanford by HOU for $6.35 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Appel was a polarizing figure in the 2012 draft, when he went 8th overall and didn’t sign with the Pirates, turning down a $3.8 million offer. Scouts liked the size and stuff but though Appel was stiff through his shoulders (watch him walk around at the end of the above video), not quite athletic enough to make his delivery work and lacked the aggressiveness and killer instinct to be a frontline arm. Appel answered these questions in 2013 (the above video is his 2nd start in that spring, facing Fresno State) with an improved approach and the Astros took the Houston native #1 overall.
Appel’s 2014 was a bit of an adventure: early in the season he had a couple outing where, instead of sitting 93-96 as usual, he sat around 90 mph before being shut down so the Astros could figure out what was wrong with him. Appel had an appendectomy in spring training and it’s common for pitchers to have a period where their velo drops when they’re adjusting to a new throwing schedule. The Astros use a tandem starter system, so Appel had one less rest day between starts than he would’ve had in most other organizations.
There was never a clear answer for why Appel’s velocity dipped, but it came back later in the year and, earlier this week in his first Arizona Fall League start, he was 94-97 mph in the first inning. Later in the regular season, Appel sat 93-95 and got as high at 98 mph. Scouts agree his slider flashes the most potential, 70 at times when he’s throwing 95-98 mph, though often this season is was mostly average to above and flashing 60 every now and then; my 65 future grade is a little optimistic but it still shows up in most outings when he’s throwing the usual mid-90’s.
Depending on which day a scout saw him, they may prefer the changeup over his slider, as both flashed plus, other times looks mostly average and varied start-to-start. There’s some concern about Appel’s command/consistency of his off-speed stuff, as, from what I know, he didn’t consistently flash a plus changeup and slider in the same game all season. In addition, he in general appears to have less feel for commanding his off-speed stuff, but this could all be largely due to the new throwing schedule and/or mechanical tweaks. Here’s some video of Appel from this season.
Summation: Scouts outside the organization still think that Appel is soft (they used more colorful words to say it) and it appeared the early season velocity dip affected him longer mentally than it would’ve affected many other pitchers, though Appel hadn’t faced much adversity until this year. It may be better for him in the long run to have this under his belt and, while his arm speed is back, his plus stuff is showing up way less often than it did in college. Appel needs a big year in Double-A and/or Triple-A next year to get back those #2 starter projections.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
3. Vincent Velasquez, RHP
Current Level/Age: High-A/22.3, 6’3/200, B/R
Drafted: 58th overall (2nd round) in 2010 out of California HS by HOU for $655,830 bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50+
Scouting Report: Velasquez has been a standout talent when healthy, but he has a long history of injuries. He had a strained ligament and stress fracture in his throwing elbow in his junior year of high school, then after going in the 2nd round and throwing 29.1 pro innings in 2010, Velasquez missed all of 2011 with Tommy John surgery.
He’s moved slowly since but appears ready to be unleashed at age 22, with a strong season in the Cal League this year and an Arizona Fall League season that’s just getting started. Velasquez sits 91-95 with a plus changeup and an improving curveball that flashes average to slightly above, to go with some feel to pitch that draw solid-average command grades. He’s also an excellent athlete that looks on the mound like he could grab a stick and play in the field if he wanted to.
Some scouts have Velasquez ranked over Appel, though with Appel’s peak arm speed coming back late this season, that stance is becoming less popular. Velasquez’s checkered injury history is enough that I didn’t really consider ranking him over Appel.
Summation: There’s mid-rotation potential if Velasquez’s arm can handle the workload, but a couple small, short-term dings came up this season, leading to some scouts calling him fragile. A full healthy season in Double-A in 2015 could set him up for a big league look in 2016.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
4. Colin Moran, 3B
Current Level/Age: AA/22.0, 6’4/215, L/R
Drafted: 6th overall (1st round) in 2013 out of North Carolina by MIA for $3.516 million bonus
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50+
Scouting Report: Moran was a consensus top-10 pick in the 2013 draft class, but drew widely differing opinions on his overall value, depending on what type of club you asked. Traditional clubs saw a guy with average at best tools across the board but the possible 3B fit and advanced lefty bat made him a solid, if unspectacular prospect. More progressive clubs saw an cold-weather kid that was very young for his draft class and had a big, projectable frame (all three of those are great indicators for an undervalued/growth prospect) to go with great performance in his draft year at UNC, particularly with regard to plate discipline: .345/.470/.544, 13 HR, 63 BB, 25 K.
There were lots of rumors that Moran was a candidate for the #1 overall pick that, at draft time, many assumed were floated by the Astros to get Appel’s price down. I’ve since confirmed with multiple sources that the Moran-Astros rumors were legitimate and there were discussions as late as draft day about a deeply-discounted deal at 1-1. The Astros got their man when the Marlins, a traditional club that surprised many by taking Moran 6th overall (and picking the Red Sox pocket at 7), traded Moran to Houston earlier this year in the Jarred Cosart deal.
Moran’s low-energy demeanor, inconsistent approach to the game and the Marlins quickly cutting bait on their top pick led to whispers among scouts about his makeup, though that’s more speculative. I heard from pro scouts early in 2014 that were dumbfounded how a slap-hitting stiff with no power and no energy was drafted so high and the Astros saw it as an opportunity to buy-low on a distressed asset.
Moran still has inconsistency in his approach at the plate, at times being content to slap the ball to the opposite field and other times tapping into his raw power and leverage, like when he took Brandon Finnegan deep late this season. Moran still has a smooth swing and advanced feel for the strike zone and could grow into above average raw power, but its unclear if that ever will show up consistently in games. People inside and outside of the Astros organization agree that Moran needs to decide what kind of hitter he wants to be.
He isn’t quick-twitch and has ordinary athleticism, with one scout saying, “his body looks old” and his bat speed is “only okay.” Moran has improved defensively since college; he still doesn’t have great range and his arm is average to slightly above, but he has a quick release, solid hands and good instincts.
Summation: An Astros source noted that there’s a long line of high contact/6 bat/ordinary tools third basemen on championship teams. like Bill Mueller, Carney Lansford and Matt Carpenter; this type is also generally underrated right until they perform at the big league level. That type of low K rate player with a broad base of skills is also worth more now than in the steroid era. The worst cast scenario version of this type happens if Moran never integrates power into his game swings: Sean Burroughs. Moran will be in AAA next year and could be a long-term big league option by 2016.
It’s clear after talking to double digit sources about Moran that people from rival organizations are pretty unanimously killing this guy and there is often something to it, like one scout who said he saw Moran run 4.8 to first base on a double play ball (for reference, that’s not even close to being on the scouting scale). Scouts and other traditional types pretty universally complain about the Astros for one reason or another and, given the well-known history of the Astros being the high club on Moran all along, take this opportunity to treat Moran like a bit of a referendum on the Astros’ methods. It’s a little unfair, but it’s hard to blame a scout for not liking a guy that’s low effort and hasn’t decided what kind of player he wants to be.
Upside: .285/.345/.460, average defense
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
5. Rio Ruiz, 3B
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.4, 6’2/215, L/R
Drafted: 129th overall (4th round) in 2012 out of California HS by HOU for $1.85 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Ruiz came to the Astros for an over slot $1.85 million with the money they saved going under slot on Correa as the #1 overall pick in 2012. Ruiz slipped to the 4th round after being in the top 50 pick discussion early in the spring due to a blood clot in his neck that prematurely ended his season. He was also a standout quarterback in high school which shows with his above average arm strength, but the 6’2/215 lefty hitter isn’t a traditionally great athlete.
Ruiz is a 40 runner with fringy range that limits his defensive upside, though it looks right now like he’ll be able to stay at the hot corner, with the above average raw power to profile. The carrying tool is the bat and Ruiz took a step forward statistically in 2014, but some scouts would like to see him do it outside of the Cal League before throwing a 60 on his hit tool (though some already put a 60 on it). Between his deep hand load, the power not showing up completely in games yet and the lack of plus bat speed, scouts still have offensive questions; Ruiz’s limited pre-draft exposure also contributes to the prevalence of the conservative opinions.
Ruiz has good power to the opposite field in games already, which is often a harbinger of home run numbers spiking down the road. The Astros aren’t too concerned about the defensive questions as Ruiz is a hard worker that spends more time on defense than most prospects with a bat-first profile. While his range is fringy, his hands are sure and much of Ruiz’s defensive troubles come not on range-type plays coming in or moving to either side, but flubbing routine plays, sailing easy throws or staying back too long and letting the ball play him. If he can’t stay at 3B, the only other fit is 1B, so it’s important for his value that Ruiz stay at the hot corner.
Summation: Ruiz could answer many of these questions in Double-A in 2015 at age 21 on what should be a loaded Corpus Christi club. The tool grades are similar to Moran even if the type of player is different; scouts tend to agree there’s a little more power and upside for Ruiz but a notch less bat.
Upside: ..280/.360/.460, average defense
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
6. Lance McCullers, RHP
Current Level/Age: High-A/21.0, 6’2/205, R/R
Drafted: 41st overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Florida HS by HOU for $2.5 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 35/45+
Scouting Report: McCullers’ father Lance Sr. pitched 7 years in the big leagues, but Lance Jr. made a name for himself when he hit 95 mph as a sophomore in high school, around the same time McCullers’ 2012 prep draft classmate Lucas Giolito did the same. McCullers was always seen as a power fastball-curveball pitched with limited changeup/command and a delivery with some effort to it.
I saw him a half dozen times in his draft year and noticed that McCullers was making adjustments each time out, smoothing out his delivery, throwing more strikes and integrating a changeup, all against high school competition where none of those things were necessary to get the W. Given a high price tag and reliever indicators, some teams had already stopped scouting McCullers by the time these improvements were happening, but the Astros were among the most aggressive teams that stayed on him, signing him with the savings of getting Correa on a discount at 1-1.
McCullers is still the same pitcher with the same concerns, but has continued making adjustments to give himself a chance to be a big league starter. He sits 92-95 and hits 97 mph most times out while his curveball flashes 70 potential at times when he throws it at max effort. McCullers has great feel for manipulating the pitch, varying the velocity and tilt to where it looks like a slider and curveball, but is really the same pitch. He can sometimes do this too often and get around the pitch, making it closer to average, flat and hittable. McCullers’ changeup has flashed 55 before, but is a 45 pitch right now and will always be a third pitch, likely settling at fringy to average.
Summation: McCullers had some predictable troubles in the Cal League last year (walks and homers, mostly), but will be 21 in a more neutral Double-A environment next year. One scout said he thinks McCullers turns into a #3 starter that throws a shutout one game, then walks five guys the next game. The backup plan is a closer along the lines of Brad Lidge or Francisco Rodriguez, so the Astros should get a solid contributor as long as McCullers stays healthy.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter/Closer, High (4 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
7. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
Current Level/Age: MLB/23.0, 6’0/190, R/R
Drafted: 19th overall (1st round) in 2010 out of Illinois HS by HOU for $1.305 million bonus
Fastball: 70/80, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45
Scouting Report: Foltynewicz has some similarities to McCullers but with more arm speed, hitting 100 mph quite often, but also with more severe feel issues. Foltynewicz got an 18.2 inning taste of the big leagues late in 2014 and started 18 of his 21 minor league appearances, but is far from a finished product. He sits 95-98 mph as a starter with a curveball that flashes plus sometimes, but his lack of command of the pitch makes it fringy to average most of the time.
Foltynewicz has thrown enough innings and has the lack of feel and type of delivery that you can no longer project a pitch to be a future 60 when you only see it once or twice per start. He also has an average changeup, so the raw stuff is here to start but the command projects for 45 at best due to the lack of feel; his delivery isn’t really that bad, though. One scout saw “brutal” body language in a poor Triple-A start and Astros execs conceded Foltynewicz may not have been ready for a big league look in 2014.
Summation: It’s hard to walk away from an 80 fastball with two average or better off-speed pitches and a decent delivery, so I won’t bury Foltynewicz. The reason I prefer McCullers is that his floor is as a closer because his command allows his plus stuff plays in short stints, while some scouts think Foltynewicz is an arm strength setup guy due to a lack of a plus secondary pitch. Setup guy is his floor and there’s a chance for more, I’m just not that optimistic. The body and delivery aren’t the same, but the outcome here may be similar to Jordan Walden.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter/Closer, Low (2 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
8. Brett Phillips, CF
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.4, 6’0/175, L/R
Drafted: 189th overall (6th round) in 2012 out of Florida HS by HOU for $300,000 bonus
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 70/70
Scouting Report: Phillips was unknown until January of his draft year, when he stood out at a showcase. He was standout football player as a senior and that hard-nosed demeanor carries over to the diamond, which seems predestined as his middle name is Maverick. He’s a high-energy, enthusiastic player; I watched him take BP in high school and he walked over to me, introduced himself and asked why I wasn’t interviewing him yet.
As an amateur, Phillips was an above average to plus runner with a loose swing, an easy plus arm and uncanny accuracy that profiled in center field. He was still new to facing top-end pitching, so the bat was more projection than present but his swing wasn’t conducive to power; he had 30 or 35 raw power.
Since turning pro, Phillips has added strength and adjusted his mechanics a bit to unlock more power and he now has the reps to where the physical skills are adding up to performance at the plate. It still isn’t a slam dunk that he’ll be a 50 bat, as Philips still needs to make a little more contact, and it’s more 12-15 homer upside, but there’s a potential 20-20 season here.
Summation: Some of Phillips’ 2014 breakout was in the hitter-friendly Cal League, so an age-21 season with a stop in AA will be a real test to see if he can stay on the fast track. He’ll be playing alongside Teoscar Hernandez, who is his main competition to be the Astros CF of the future.
Upside: .280/.350/.430, average defense
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
45 FV Prospects
9. Domingo Santana, RF Video: Santana is an enigma that every scout I talked to ended their report with some version of: “I saw him enough to have a strong opinion, but I still don’t have one.” His 78% K rate in a brief September big league audition (14 K in 18 PA) doesn’t help that perception. More than a few scouts graded him as an up/down player due to the total lack of faith in his bat, but Santana has 60 raw power and arm strength with solid athleticism in a 6’5/225 frame, fitting the classic everyday RF profile. He’s the kind of guy that will look lost in his first three at-bats, then hit a massive homer in the last one; after talking to at least a half dozen scouts about him, I still have no idea what to make of him.
10. Teoscar Hernandez, RF Video: Hernandez has five average or better tools but needs to tighten up his strike zone and simplify his approach. He’s an above average to plus runner that’s still a little rough in CF, with most scouts thinking he’ll end up in RF due to his 55 arm. He has 50 raw power and good makeup but needs more feel for the game, particularly at the plate as his bat control isn’t elite. If Hernandez can make strides with his approach and/or defense, there’s an exciting everyday player but more likely, it’s a notch or two below that.
11. Nick Tropeano, RHP Video: Tropeano’s delivery isn’t pretty, but he commands his pitches well and competes, sitting 88-91 with sink that’s hit 94 mph, a fringy to average curveball and a plus changeup. Scouts round up on the their projections due to the swing-and-miss changeup, the deception and feel to pitch along with the bulldog approach of the NYC native.
12. Derek Fisher, LF Video: Fisher is maddening to some scouts as he flashes 60 raw power, 65 speed and the tools to be a 60 hitter, but those tools don’t show up on the field too often. Fisher has a line drive swing that doesn’t tap into his raw power in games very often, with 55 game power (19-22 homers annually) what the Astros are hoping for. Fisher has had some trouble laying off bad pitches, but has steadily made progress in this area since it was a huge problem back in high school. He has a below average arm and bad defensive instincts that limit him to LF, but the Astros are working with him to see if he can play CF while also giving him the green light to steal bases, which he wasn’t really allowed to do in college.
13. A.J. Reed, 1B Video: Reed put up absurd numbers this spring at Kentucky, hitting .336/.476/.735 with more BB than K and 23 homers in 62 games while also throwing 112 innings with a 2.09 ERA as their ace. Reed’s stuff is fringy on the mound and that combined with his 65 or 70 raw power from the left side made clubs prefer him in the batter’s box. He isn’t much of a runner, so his plus arm is hidden at 1B, his swing worries some because he bars out (stiff/locked right arm) and has trouble with good off-speed stuff. That said, he’s done nothing but hit his whole career and he gets to his power in games; Reed is the type that will have to prove it at every level but also has a backup plan as a #5 starter type lefty if he can’t hit.
14. Josh Hader, LHP Video: Hader is a unique prospect: a skinny 6’3/160 lefty acquired from Baltimore in the Bud Norris deal whose velo spiked after signing (out of a Maryland high school) from the mid-80’s to touching the mid-90’s with a funky delivery and low 3/4 arm slot. He performed well in the Cal League, showing improvements and earning a promotion to AA at age 20, but scouts still aren’t sure of his big league role. He sits 90-93 and hits 96 mph at times, but also dips into the high-80’s later in outings, likely due to his skinny frame. Hader also has trouble staying on top of his fringy slider, though it flashes average. Hader’s above average changeup helps neutralize righty hitters but scouts see the stuff from the left side and the low slot and think LOOGY floor, but Hader doesn’t have enough breaking ball for that; if the slider doesn’t improve he may just be a funky long man, but he’s definitely something.
15. Michael Feliz, RHP Video: Feliz is a 6’4/210 monster righty with the changeup, delivery and command that point to reliever, but he’s still just 21, so things could still get straightened out. He sits 90-96 mph and commands the pitch well with a hard slurve that’s about average at times, though the overall command and changeup flash fringy at best right now.
16. Nolan Fontana, SS Video: Fontana doesn’t get scouts excited as a decent defensive SS with solid average speed and arm strength, but he’s savvy enough to get into good situations to let his arm and range play despite modest tools. He isn’t quite good enough at the plate or with the glove to be an everyday SS, but he plays 2B well and profiles as a good utility guy; his bat may be a 50 and has an advanced feel for the strike zone to make up for 8-10 homer type power.
40 FV Prospects
17. J.D. Davis, 1B Video: Davis is up to 95 with an above average slider on the mound as a relief-only guy at Fullerton, but was drafted in the 3rd round last June as a hitter. He was decent at 3B in instructs, which allows his plus arm to play, but he’s likely a 1B fit as a 40 runner without much first-step quickness. The raw power is also plus but there’s some questions about contact ability that scouts won’t be sure about until he gets to AA.
18. Preston Tucker, LF Video: Tucker was a four-year standout performer for Florida and raked his way to AAA pretty quickly despite only going in the 7th round in 2012. Scouts that like Tucker see 50 hit and power tools with a LF/1B fit and being left-handed would make him the good side of a platoon, while others think his ordinary bat speed will lead the hitting tools to play down into more of a pinch hitter role.
19. Max Stassi, C, Video: Stassi has had his share of injuries, including a concussion last year, to the point that he wore down some late in 2014, his season with over 400 PA since 2010. He only has an average arm and may just be a fringy defender, but it’s enough to be a bat-first big league backup. The bat isn’t huge and some scouts don’t like the swing, but he can punish mistakes and already has big league time.
20. Kent Emanuel, LHP Video: The 6’3/225 lefty only sits 87-89 mph and has a funky enough delivery that you would think he has command issues, but Emanuel makes it work for him. His curveball is solid-average at times and his changeup is often above average with one scout saying he thinks Emanuel is a very safe bet to reach his #5 starter ceiling.
21. Andrew Thurman, RHP Video: Thurman’s velocity is a moving target that dictates his prospect status: 88-91 until a spike late in a summer on the Cape to 91-94, tailing off before the Astros took him at the top of the 2nd round in 2013 as a pitchability back-end starter type. Then, in 2014 Spring Training, he hit 97 mph and sat 91-95 during the season, but the new-found velocity caused command issues for his 50 slider and 55 changeup. If he can get back to throwing strikes with solid-average stuff, he could move quickly, but adjustments are needed.
22. Joe Musgrove, RHP Video: Musgrove was a sandwich round pick of the Jays in 2011 and still hasn’t been to full-season ball yet but made a lot of progress in 2014. The 6’5/230 righty sits 90-95 and touches 97 mph with downhill plane and a slider that’s above average at times to go with an inconsistent changeup that’s average at times.
23. Tony Kemp, 2B Video: The best of the three tiny utility guys in this group, the 5’6/165 Kemp and his 35 raw power racked up a mind-boggling 46 extra-base hits in 2014, though the Cal League had something to do with that. Kemp has an all-fields line drive stoke, makes a lot of hard contact, has above average bat control and picks his spots for tap into his power in games well, but has trouble with good off-speed stuff. He’s a 55 or 60 runner that gets out of the box really quickly and can stick at 2B but has experience LF and CF, with one scout comparing Kemp to Willie Harris.
24. Brady Rodgers, RHP Video: Rodgers sits 89-91 and hits 93 mph with a fringy curve and changeup and lack of deception but has plus control, a good delivery that he repeats and some feel to pitch. He’s probably a swing man/long reliever, but there’s a decent shot for a #5 starter here and he’ll be in AAA next year.
25. Delino DeShields, LF Video: The 5’9/210 former top-10 pick with obvious bloodlines is a favorite punching bag for scouts over his low-energy demeanor and they’ve all got at least one personal story to illustrate why they don’t think he gets close to his ceiling. He’s a 65 runner with tools to be an everyday up-the-middle type but he has no feel to hit and seems disinterested defensively, so he only really fits in LF but also plays 2B and CF in preparation for a utility fit.
26. Ronald Torreyes, 2B Video: Torreyes is tiny; he’s listed at 5’10/150 and he’s probably 5’7. He’s fine at 2B and can actually play SS, though his size works against him staying there for any long stretches. There isn’t much power but the bat/defense are both utility fits, so it isn’t a big deal. Advanced bat control, good makeup, defensive versatility and some success in AAA are enough for him to sneak on the list.
Cistulli’s Guy
Thomas Shirley, LHP
No club was responsible for producing a larger collection of names within this site’s weekly Fringe Five column in 2014 than Houston. In all, 10 players appeared there at some point over the course of the year: batters Andrew Aplin, Conrad Gregor, Tyler Heineman, Tony Kemp, and Brett Phillips and then pitchers Josh Hader, David Rollins, Thomas Shirley, Kyle Smith, and Aaron West. Among them, Shirley was the leader — largely, that, on the strength of his first two months. Between April 6th and May 21st, the left-hander recorded strikeout and walk rates of 27.1% and 6.4%, respectively, over 10 appearances (seven starts) and 47.2 innings with Double-A Corpus Christi.
His numbers were more ordinary after that, however — in particular after a promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Following a move to the bullpen in late July, his rates (perhaps predictably) improved. Still, given his combination of a low- to mid-90s fastball and changeup — upon which offerings his pitching coach at Corpus Christi, Doug Brocail, heaped uncommonly effusive praise — it seems as though Shirley ought to be capable of neutralizing the platoon advantage enough to work in a starting capacity.
Others Of Note
C Carlos Perez is a ready-made backup backstop if he can make some slight adjustments receiving (scouts thought he was too lazy back-handing balls and didn’t go down to block enough, but was excellent when he did) but the bat is light enough that it’s more of a low-end backup. CF Andrew Aplin (Video) also got some support for the back-end of the list; most scouts have him as a 5th outfielder or up/down guy, but some have him as a 4th outfielder: he has the instincts to play center despite only 55 speed and some feel to hit, but little power.
LF Danry Vasquez may be a 55 hitter, but he’s rail-thin and a mess defensively that’s limited to left field even if he cleans up his fielding. 1B Conrad Gregor hits but it isn’t always pretty, it’s pull-oriented and there isn’t a ton of power, though that’s been true of some long-term role player types.
1B Telvin Nash has at least 70 raw power but even Astros execs agree it may be no more than a 20 bat; one scout suggest Nash as a 100 PA call-up to run into some homers before the league figures him out (and then send him back down). C Tyler Heineman is a switch-hitter that can catch and throw and make enough contact to be a big leaguer, but the tools aren’t much while C Jacob Nottingham looks great in a uniform and has a smooth stroke with the elements to be able to stick behind the plate as an offensive-oriented catcher.
Of the arms that almost made the list, righties Daniel Mengden (Video) and Derick Velazquez (Video), both 2014 draftees, will find themselves on next year’s list with solid debuts. Mengden is an athletic two-way standout at Texas A&M that has solid-average stuff and command but recently had a back issue and is only 6’1 or 6’2, so I’d like to see a full season before ranking him. Velazquez is a big athletic 6’4/200 kid from Fresno State that had fringy stuff as a starter that spiked in relief, where he sits 92-95 mph with a plus curveball and average changeup; it’s relief-only and he’s a 7th rounder that’s only thrown 23 pro innings, but I’ve got a feeling about this one and he was the last cut from the list.
RHP Kyle Smith has good numbers but it’s three fringy pitches that flash average with a troublesome delivery and arm action. There’s about a dozen other fringy, good performer-type arms that got mentioned near the end of scout calls and I’ll mention three of them here: LHP David Rollins (up to 95 mph with a fringy slider and changeup), RHP Juan Minaya (long arm action creates timing/command issues but he’s up to 97 mph) and LHP Thomas Shirley (Video Cistulli fav is up to 95 mph with fringy curveball, inconsistent changeup and lots of funk that creates deception and below-average command). I also look forward to Eno Sarris trying to pronounce the name of the Astros’ mammoth (6’8/225) 2014 6th rounder and Jon Rauch type, RHP Brock Dykxhoorn.
The Astros’ Latin program has already started to show some results under the Luhnow regime, with some kids showing tools in America and three seven figure bonus guys from this past July 2nd. The recent July 2nd signees (signed to 2015 contracts, so haven’t played a pro game yet) are CF Ronny Rafael (Video, $1.5 million for loose athlete with above average tools and plate discipline issues), SS Miguel Angel Sierra (Video, $1 million for steady Venezuelan shortstop with unspectacular tools but lots of feel and present performance) and the signee with the best early returns, RHP Franklin Perez (Video $1 million for 6’4/200 righty mostly played hoops growing up, is new to the mound and shows above average potential fastball/curveball combo from smooth delivery).
SS Joan Mauricio was one of last year’s big July 2nd signings ($600,000 bonus) and is already showing a plus arm and the ability to stay at shortstop with a projectable 6’0/150 frame to dream for more while he continues to learn the game. Five Latin prospects showing some promise stateside are SS Osvaldo Duarte (5’9 athlete is plus runner with some bat speed that plays all three up the middle positions), RHP Francis Martes (acquired in the Moran deal, will be developed as starter, has good frame and makeup, is into mid-90’s but is still a raw arm that’s mostly arm strength right now), RHP Jandel Gustave (regularly hits 100 mph with a pretty easy arm action, but little else right now, as Nathaniel saw earlier this year), LHP Reymin Guduan (6’4 lefty is already 22 and hasn’t seen full-season ball yet, but has hit 100 mph and sits 92-98 with solid-average slider at times and little else) and RHP Elieser Hernandez (isn’t a slam dunk to start but 6’1/170 19-year-old righty is athletic, sits 90-94 mph with above average changeup and has a curve that could be average).
Here’s the primer for the series and a disclaimer about how we don’t really know anything. See the links above for the ongoing series about how I evaluate, including a five-part on the ever-complicated hit tool.
Most of what you need to know for this list is at the above links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (in general, a notch better than the projected tools) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below, I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets that Houston has in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. The next team up in the series, working from the bottom of the standings on up, is the Boston Red Sox.
Big League Growth Assets
1. George Springer, RF, Age 25
2. Jon Singleton, 1B, Age 23
3. Jake Marisnick, CF, Age 23
4. Robbie Grossman, RF, Age 25
5. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Age 25
6. Jonathan Villar, SS, Age 23
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
The Astros took a significant step forward on the field in 2014, even if it didn’t show up entirely in their record. By BaseRuns, their .478 expected winning percentage put them in a virtual tie with the Atlanta Braves. The 2014 Astros were an actual Major League team, which is a big step from where they had been the previous few years, and the talent headed for Houston should only continue to help. The question is whether the team can get good fast enough to make up all the off-the-field issues that have arisen.
While you never want a GM to make decisions based on his own job security, the Astros front office could probably use a winning season in 2015 to make sure they get to see 2016. The good news is that they might actually have the talent to make that a possibility.
50+ FV Prospects
1. Carlos Correa, SS
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.0, 6’4/205, R/R
Drafted: 1st overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Puerto Rico HS by HOU for $4.8 million bonus
Hit: 20/60, Raw Power: 60/65, Game Power: 20/55, Run: 55/50, Field: 50/55, Throw: 65/65
Scouting Report: Correa was the slightly controversial #1 overall pick in 2012 and the first high Puerto Rican first rounder in some time. As noted below, his below slot bonus allowed the Astros to go over slot for the 5th and 6th prospects on the list, 3B Rio Ruiz and RHP Lance McCullers. Some question the Astros decision to pass on Byron Buxton for Correa, but that race is still relatively close and the other two prospects have done well so far.
Correa had some trouble at the plate in the summer after signing, but raked in 2013 and 2014, until he broke his fibula in June, ending his season. He’s doing sprints now and could be ready to play in at some point this winter, but he’ll take the winter off and show up to Spring Training at 100%.
Correa was seen as a future 3B by most at draft time as a big SS that is fine there now, but with added weight leading to declining speed/range, would likely move off the position around when he’d reach the big leagues. He’s made progress defensively since then and now looks like he may be able to be an average defensive shortstop through his six control years in the big leagues, even if he loses a step of pure speed in the process.
Offensively, Correa is excitingly talented with plus hitting tools across the board and projection to dream for more. It all plays in games, though the game power is still coming along, as it’s usually the last tool to mature. There’s still some concern that his short path to the ball and gap-to-gap approach won’t let him get to all of his raw power, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the necessary adjustments down the road; he has a number of positive indicators like size, age, performance, makeup, aptitude and a rare toolset.
Summation: Correa should go to Double-A at some point next year and, if he feels no ill effects of the leg injury and keeps hitting like he has been, he could be knocking on the door of the majors next year like Kris Bryant was this year (and also would ultimately be left in the minors for service time reasons). Correa isn’t nearly as good of a defender as Troy Tulowitzki, but Correa is as close to that kind of talent at shortstop as we’ve seen since Tulo had his breakout season in 2007.
Upside: .290/.360/.470, average defense & baserunning value
FV/Risk: 65, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
2. Mark Appel, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/23.2, 6’5/225, R/R
Drafted: 1st overall (1st round) in 2013 out of Stanford by HOU for $6.35 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 55/65, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Appel was a polarizing figure in the 2012 draft, when he went 8th overall and didn’t sign with the Pirates, turning down a $3.8 million offer. Scouts liked the size and stuff but though Appel was stiff through his shoulders (watch him walk around at the end of the above video), not quite athletic enough to make his delivery work and lacked the aggressiveness and killer instinct to be a frontline arm. Appel answered these questions in 2013 (the above video is his 2nd start in that spring, facing Fresno State) with an improved approach and the Astros took the Houston native #1 overall.
Appel’s 2014 was a bit of an adventure: early in the season he had a couple outing where, instead of sitting 93-96 as usual, he sat around 90 mph before being shut down so the Astros could figure out what was wrong with him. Appel had an appendectomy in spring training and it’s common for pitchers to have a period where their velo drops when they’re adjusting to a new throwing schedule. The Astros use a tandem starter system, so Appel had one less rest day between starts than he would’ve had in most other organizations.
There was never a clear answer for why Appel’s velocity dipped, but it came back later in the year and, earlier this week in his first Arizona Fall League start, he was 94-97 mph in the first inning. Later in the regular season, Appel sat 93-95 and got as high at 98 mph. Scouts agree his slider flashes the most potential, 70 at times when he’s throwing 95-98 mph, though often this season is was mostly average to above and flashing 60 every now and then; my 65 future grade is a little optimistic but it still shows up in most outings when he’s throwing the usual mid-90’s.
Depending on which day a scout saw him, they may prefer the changeup over his slider, as both flashed plus, other times looks mostly average and varied start-to-start. There’s some concern about Appel’s command/consistency of his off-speed stuff, as, from what I know, he didn’t consistently flash a plus changeup and slider in the same game all season. In addition, he in general appears to have less feel for commanding his off-speed stuff, but this could all be largely due to the new throwing schedule and/or mechanical tweaks. Here’s some video of Appel from this season.
Summation: Scouts outside the organization still think that Appel is soft (they used more colorful words to say it) and it appeared the early season velocity dip affected him longer mentally than it would’ve affected many other pitchers, though Appel hadn’t faced much adversity until this year. It may be better for him in the long run to have this under his belt and, while his arm speed is back, his plus stuff is showing up way less often than it did in college. Appel needs a big year in Double-A and/or Triple-A next year to get back those #2 starter projections.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
3. Vincent Velasquez, RHP
Current Level/Age: High-A/22.3, 6’3/200, B/R
Drafted: 58th overall (2nd round) in 2010 out of California HS by HOU for $655,830 bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 55/60, Command: 45/50+
Scouting Report: Velasquez has been a standout talent when healthy, but he has a long history of injuries. He had a strained ligament and stress fracture in his throwing elbow in his junior year of high school, then after going in the 2nd round and throwing 29.1 pro innings in 2010, Velasquez missed all of 2011 with Tommy John surgery.
He’s moved slowly since but appears ready to be unleashed at age 22, with a strong season in the Cal League this year and an Arizona Fall League season that’s just getting started. Velasquez sits 91-95 with a plus changeup and an improving curveball that flashes average to slightly above, to go with some feel to pitch that draw solid-average command grades. He’s also an excellent athlete that looks on the mound like he could grab a stick and play in the field if he wanted to.
Some scouts have Velasquez ranked over Appel, though with Appel’s peak arm speed coming back late this season, that stance is becoming less popular. Velasquez’s checkered injury history is enough that I didn’t really consider ranking him over Appel.
Summation: There’s mid-rotation potential if Velasquez’s arm can handle the workload, but a couple small, short-term dings came up this season, leading to some scouts calling him fragile. A full healthy season in Double-A in 2015 could set him up for a big league look in 2016.
FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
4. Colin Moran, 3B
Current Level/Age: AA/22.0, 6’4/215, L/R
Drafted: 6th overall (1st round) in 2013 out of North Carolina by MIA for $3.516 million bonus
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 50/50+, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 40/40, Field: 45/50, Throw: 50/50+
Scouting Report: Moran was a consensus top-10 pick in the 2013 draft class, but drew widely differing opinions on his overall value, depending on what type of club you asked. Traditional clubs saw a guy with average at best tools across the board but the possible 3B fit and advanced lefty bat made him a solid, if unspectacular prospect. More progressive clubs saw an cold-weather kid that was very young for his draft class and had a big, projectable frame (all three of those are great indicators for an undervalued/growth prospect) to go with great performance in his draft year at UNC, particularly with regard to plate discipline: .345/.470/.544, 13 HR, 63 BB, 25 K.
There were lots of rumors that Moran was a candidate for the #1 overall pick that, at draft time, many assumed were floated by the Astros to get Appel’s price down. I’ve since confirmed with multiple sources that the Moran-Astros rumors were legitimate and there were discussions as late as draft day about a deeply-discounted deal at 1-1. The Astros got their man when the Marlins, a traditional club that surprised many by taking Moran 6th overall (and picking the Red Sox pocket at 7), traded Moran to Houston earlier this year in the Jarred Cosart deal.
Moran’s low-energy demeanor, inconsistent approach to the game and the Marlins quickly cutting bait on their top pick led to whispers among scouts about his makeup, though that’s more speculative. I heard from pro scouts early in 2014 that were dumbfounded how a slap-hitting stiff with no power and no energy was drafted so high and the Astros saw it as an opportunity to buy-low on a distressed asset.
Moran still has inconsistency in his approach at the plate, at times being content to slap the ball to the opposite field and other times tapping into his raw power and leverage, like when he took Brandon Finnegan deep late this season. Moran still has a smooth swing and advanced feel for the strike zone and could grow into above average raw power, but its unclear if that ever will show up consistently in games. People inside and outside of the Astros organization agree that Moran needs to decide what kind of hitter he wants to be.
He isn’t quick-twitch and has ordinary athleticism, with one scout saying, “his body looks old” and his bat speed is “only okay.” Moran has improved defensively since college; he still doesn’t have great range and his arm is average to slightly above, but he has a quick release, solid hands and good instincts.
Summation: An Astros source noted that there’s a long line of high contact/6 bat/ordinary tools third basemen on championship teams. like Bill Mueller, Carney Lansford and Matt Carpenter; this type is also generally underrated right until they perform at the big league level. That type of low K rate player with a broad base of skills is also worth more now than in the steroid era. The worst cast scenario version of this type happens if Moran never integrates power into his game swings: Sean Burroughs. Moran will be in AAA next year and could be a long-term big league option by 2016.
It’s clear after talking to double digit sources about Moran that people from rival organizations are pretty unanimously killing this guy and there is often something to it, like one scout who said he saw Moran run 4.8 to first base on a double play ball (for reference, that’s not even close to being on the scouting scale). Scouts and other traditional types pretty universally complain about the Astros for one reason or another and, given the well-known history of the Astros being the high club on Moran all along, take this opportunity to treat Moran like a bit of a referendum on the Astros’ methods. It’s a little unfair, but it’s hard to blame a scout for not liking a guy that’s low effort and hasn’t decided what kind of player he wants to be.
Upside: .285/.345/.460, average defense
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
5. Rio Ruiz, 3B
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.4, 6’2/215, L/R
Drafted: 129th overall (4th round) in 2012 out of California HS by HOU for $1.85 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50+, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/50, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Ruiz came to the Astros for an over slot $1.85 million with the money they saved going under slot on Correa as the #1 overall pick in 2012. Ruiz slipped to the 4th round after being in the top 50 pick discussion early in the spring due to a blood clot in his neck that prematurely ended his season. He was also a standout quarterback in high school which shows with his above average arm strength, but the 6’2/215 lefty hitter isn’t a traditionally great athlete.
Ruiz is a 40 runner with fringy range that limits his defensive upside, though it looks right now like he’ll be able to stay at the hot corner, with the above average raw power to profile. The carrying tool is the bat and Ruiz took a step forward statistically in 2014, but some scouts would like to see him do it outside of the Cal League before throwing a 60 on his hit tool (though some already put a 60 on it). Between his deep hand load, the power not showing up completely in games yet and the lack of plus bat speed, scouts still have offensive questions; Ruiz’s limited pre-draft exposure also contributes to the prevalence of the conservative opinions.
Ruiz has good power to the opposite field in games already, which is often a harbinger of home run numbers spiking down the road. The Astros aren’t too concerned about the defensive questions as Ruiz is a hard worker that spends more time on defense than most prospects with a bat-first profile. While his range is fringy, his hands are sure and much of Ruiz’s defensive troubles come not on range-type plays coming in or moving to either side, but flubbing routine plays, sailing easy throws or staying back too long and letting the ball play him. If he can’t stay at 3B, the only other fit is 1B, so it’s important for his value that Ruiz stay at the hot corner.
Summation: Ruiz could answer many of these questions in Double-A in 2015 at age 21 on what should be a loaded Corpus Christi club. The tool grades are similar to Moran even if the type of player is different; scouts tend to agree there’s a little more power and upside for Ruiz but a notch less bat.
Upside: ..280/.360/.460, average defense
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
6. Lance McCullers, RHP
Current Level/Age: High-A/21.0, 6’2/205, R/R
Drafted: 41st overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Florida HS by HOU for $2.5 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 35/45+
Scouting Report: McCullers’ father Lance Sr. pitched 7 years in the big leagues, but Lance Jr. made a name for himself when he hit 95 mph as a sophomore in high school, around the same time McCullers’ 2012 prep draft classmate Lucas Giolito did the same. McCullers was always seen as a power fastball-curveball pitched with limited changeup/command and a delivery with some effort to it.
I saw him a half dozen times in his draft year and noticed that McCullers was making adjustments each time out, smoothing out his delivery, throwing more strikes and integrating a changeup, all against high school competition where none of those things were necessary to get the W. Given a high price tag and reliever indicators, some teams had already stopped scouting McCullers by the time these improvements were happening, but the Astros were among the most aggressive teams that stayed on him, signing him with the savings of getting Correa on a discount at 1-1.
McCullers is still the same pitcher with the same concerns, but has continued making adjustments to give himself a chance to be a big league starter. He sits 92-95 and hits 97 mph most times out while his curveball flashes 70 potential at times when he throws it at max effort. McCullers has great feel for manipulating the pitch, varying the velocity and tilt to where it looks like a slider and curveball, but is really the same pitch. He can sometimes do this too often and get around the pitch, making it closer to average, flat and hittable. McCullers’ changeup has flashed 55 before, but is a 45 pitch right now and will always be a third pitch, likely settling at fringy to average.
Summation: McCullers had some predictable troubles in the Cal League last year (walks and homers, mostly), but will be 21 in a more neutral Double-A environment next year. One scout said he thinks McCullers turns into a #3 starter that throws a shutout one game, then walks five guys the next game. The backup plan is a closer along the lines of Brad Lidge or Francisco Rodriguez, so the Astros should get a solid contributor as long as McCullers stays healthy.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter/Closer, High (4 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
7. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
Current Level/Age: MLB/23.0, 6’0/190, R/R
Drafted: 19th overall (1st round) in 2010 out of Illinois HS by HOU for $1.305 million bonus
Fastball: 70/80, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/45
Scouting Report: Foltynewicz has some similarities to McCullers but with more arm speed, hitting 100 mph quite often, but also with more severe feel issues. Foltynewicz got an 18.2 inning taste of the big leagues late in 2014 and started 18 of his 21 minor league appearances, but is far from a finished product. He sits 95-98 mph as a starter with a curveball that flashes plus sometimes, but his lack of command of the pitch makes it fringy to average most of the time.
Foltynewicz has thrown enough innings and has the lack of feel and type of delivery that you can no longer project a pitch to be a future 60 when you only see it once or twice per start. He also has an average changeup, so the raw stuff is here to start but the command projects for 45 at best due to the lack of feel; his delivery isn’t really that bad, though. One scout saw “brutal” body language in a poor Triple-A start and Astros execs conceded Foltynewicz may not have been ready for a big league look in 2014.
Summation: It’s hard to walk away from an 80 fastball with two average or better off-speed pitches and a decent delivery, so I won’t bury Foltynewicz. The reason I prefer McCullers is that his floor is as a closer because his command allows his plus stuff plays in short stints, while some scouts think Foltynewicz is an arm strength setup guy due to a lack of a plus secondary pitch. Setup guy is his floor and there’s a chance for more, I’m just not that optimistic. The body and delivery aren’t the same, but the outcome here may be similar to Jordan Walden.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter/Closer, Low (2 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
8. Brett Phillips, CF
Current Level/Age: High-A/20.4, 6’0/175, L/R
Drafted: 189th overall (6th round) in 2012 out of Florida HS by HOU for $300,000 bonus
Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/45+, Game Power: 20/45, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 70/70
Scouting Report: Phillips was unknown until January of his draft year, when he stood out at a showcase. He was standout football player as a senior and that hard-nosed demeanor carries over to the diamond, which seems predestined as his middle name is Maverick. He’s a high-energy, enthusiastic player; I watched him take BP in high school and he walked over to me, introduced himself and asked why I wasn’t interviewing him yet.
As an amateur, Phillips was an above average to plus runner with a loose swing, an easy plus arm and uncanny accuracy that profiled in center field. He was still new to facing top-end pitching, so the bat was more projection than present but his swing wasn’t conducive to power; he had 30 or 35 raw power.
Since turning pro, Phillips has added strength and adjusted his mechanics a bit to unlock more power and he now has the reps to where the physical skills are adding up to performance at the plate. It still isn’t a slam dunk that he’ll be a 50 bat, as Philips still needs to make a little more contact, and it’s more 12-15 homer upside, but there’s a potential 20-20 season here.
Summation: Some of Phillips’ 2014 breakout was in the hitter-friendly Cal League, so an age-21 season with a stop in AA will be a real test to see if he can stay on the fast track. He’ll be playing alongside Teoscar Hernandez, who is his main competition to be the Astros CF of the future.
Upside: .280/.350/.430, average defense
FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA, 2017: MLB
45 FV Prospects
9. Domingo Santana, RF Video: Santana is an enigma that every scout I talked to ended their report with some version of: “I saw him enough to have a strong opinion, but I still don’t have one.” His 78% K rate in a brief September big league audition (14 K in 18 PA) doesn’t help that perception. More than a few scouts graded him as an up/down player due to the total lack of faith in his bat, but Santana has 60 raw power and arm strength with solid athleticism in a 6’5/225 frame, fitting the classic everyday RF profile. He’s the kind of guy that will look lost in his first three at-bats, then hit a massive homer in the last one; after talking to at least a half dozen scouts about him, I still have no idea what to make of him.
10. Teoscar Hernandez, RF Video: Hernandez has five average or better tools but needs to tighten up his strike zone and simplify his approach. He’s an above average to plus runner that’s still a little rough in CF, with most scouts thinking he’ll end up in RF due to his 55 arm. He has 50 raw power and good makeup but needs more feel for the game, particularly at the plate as his bat control isn’t elite. If Hernandez can make strides with his approach and/or defense, there’s an exciting everyday player but more likely, it’s a notch or two below that.
11. Nick Tropeano, RHP Video: Tropeano’s delivery isn’t pretty, but he commands his pitches well and competes, sitting 88-91 with sink that’s hit 94 mph, a fringy to average curveball and a plus changeup. Scouts round up on the their projections due to the swing-and-miss changeup, the deception and feel to pitch along with the bulldog approach of the NYC native.
12. Derek Fisher, LF Video: Fisher is maddening to some scouts as he flashes 60 raw power, 65 speed and the tools to be a 60 hitter, but those tools don’t show up on the field too often. Fisher has a line drive swing that doesn’t tap into his raw power in games very often, with 55 game power (19-22 homers annually) what the Astros are hoping for. Fisher has had some trouble laying off bad pitches, but has steadily made progress in this area since it was a huge problem back in high school. He has a below average arm and bad defensive instincts that limit him to LF, but the Astros are working with him to see if he can play CF while also giving him the green light to steal bases, which he wasn’t really allowed to do in college.
13. A.J. Reed, 1B Video: Reed put up absurd numbers this spring at Kentucky, hitting .336/.476/.735 with more BB than K and 23 homers in 62 games while also throwing 112 innings with a 2.09 ERA as their ace. Reed’s stuff is fringy on the mound and that combined with his 65 or 70 raw power from the left side made clubs prefer him in the batter’s box. He isn’t much of a runner, so his plus arm is hidden at 1B, his swing worries some because he bars out (stiff/locked right arm) and has trouble with good off-speed stuff. That said, he’s done nothing but hit his whole career and he gets to his power in games; Reed is the type that will have to prove it at every level but also has a backup plan as a #5 starter type lefty if he can’t hit.
14. Josh Hader, LHP Video: Hader is a unique prospect: a skinny 6’3/160 lefty acquired from Baltimore in the Bud Norris deal whose velo spiked after signing (out of a Maryland high school) from the mid-80’s to touching the mid-90’s with a funky delivery and low 3/4 arm slot. He performed well in the Cal League, showing improvements and earning a promotion to AA at age 20, but scouts still aren’t sure of his big league role. He sits 90-93 and hits 96 mph at times, but also dips into the high-80’s later in outings, likely due to his skinny frame. Hader also has trouble staying on top of his fringy slider, though it flashes average. Hader’s above average changeup helps neutralize righty hitters but scouts see the stuff from the left side and the low slot and think LOOGY floor, but Hader doesn’t have enough breaking ball for that; if the slider doesn’t improve he may just be a funky long man, but he’s definitely something.
15. Michael Feliz, RHP Video: Feliz is a 6’4/210 monster righty with the changeup, delivery and command that point to reliever, but he’s still just 21, so things could still get straightened out. He sits 90-96 mph and commands the pitch well with a hard slurve that’s about average at times, though the overall command and changeup flash fringy at best right now.
16. Nolan Fontana, SS Video: Fontana doesn’t get scouts excited as a decent defensive SS with solid average speed and arm strength, but he’s savvy enough to get into good situations to let his arm and range play despite modest tools. He isn’t quite good enough at the plate or with the glove to be an everyday SS, but he plays 2B well and profiles as a good utility guy; his bat may be a 50 and has an advanced feel for the strike zone to make up for 8-10 homer type power.
40 FV Prospects
17. J.D. Davis, 1B Video: Davis is up to 95 with an above average slider on the mound as a relief-only guy at Fullerton, but was drafted in the 3rd round last June as a hitter. He was decent at 3B in instructs, which allows his plus arm to play, but he’s likely a 1B fit as a 40 runner without much first-step quickness. The raw power is also plus but there’s some questions about contact ability that scouts won’t be sure about until he gets to AA.
18. Preston Tucker, LF Video: Tucker was a four-year standout performer for Florida and raked his way to AAA pretty quickly despite only going in the 7th round in 2012. Scouts that like Tucker see 50 hit and power tools with a LF/1B fit and being left-handed would make him the good side of a platoon, while others think his ordinary bat speed will lead the hitting tools to play down into more of a pinch hitter role.
19. Max Stassi, C, Video: Stassi has had his share of injuries, including a concussion last year, to the point that he wore down some late in 2014, his season with over 400 PA since 2010. He only has an average arm and may just be a fringy defender, but it’s enough to be a bat-first big league backup. The bat isn’t huge and some scouts don’t like the swing, but he can punish mistakes and already has big league time.
20. Kent Emanuel, LHP Video: The 6’3/225 lefty only sits 87-89 mph and has a funky enough delivery that you would think he has command issues, but Emanuel makes it work for him. His curveball is solid-average at times and his changeup is often above average with one scout saying he thinks Emanuel is a very safe bet to reach his #5 starter ceiling.
21. Andrew Thurman, RHP Video: Thurman’s velocity is a moving target that dictates his prospect status: 88-91 until a spike late in a summer on the Cape to 91-94, tailing off before the Astros took him at the top of the 2nd round in 2013 as a pitchability back-end starter type. Then, in 2014 Spring Training, he hit 97 mph and sat 91-95 during the season, but the new-found velocity caused command issues for his 50 slider and 55 changeup. If he can get back to throwing strikes with solid-average stuff, he could move quickly, but adjustments are needed.
22. Joe Musgrove, RHP Video: Musgrove was a sandwich round pick of the Jays in 2011 and still hasn’t been to full-season ball yet but made a lot of progress in 2014. The 6’5/230 righty sits 90-95 and touches 97 mph with downhill plane and a slider that’s above average at times to go with an inconsistent changeup that’s average at times.
23. Tony Kemp, 2B Video: The best of the three tiny utility guys in this group, the 5’6/165 Kemp and his 35 raw power racked up a mind-boggling 46 extra-base hits in 2014, though the Cal League had something to do with that. Kemp has an all-fields line drive stoke, makes a lot of hard contact, has above average bat control and picks his spots for tap into his power in games well, but has trouble with good off-speed stuff. He’s a 55 or 60 runner that gets out of the box really quickly and can stick at 2B but has experience LF and CF, with one scout comparing Kemp to Willie Harris.
24. Brady Rodgers, RHP Video: Rodgers sits 89-91 and hits 93 mph with a fringy curve and changeup and lack of deception but has plus control, a good delivery that he repeats and some feel to pitch. He’s probably a swing man/long reliever, but there’s a decent shot for a #5 starter here and he’ll be in AAA next year.
25. Delino DeShields, LF Video: The 5’9/210 former top-10 pick with obvious bloodlines is a favorite punching bag for scouts over his low-energy demeanor and they’ve all got at least one personal story to illustrate why they don’t think he gets close to his ceiling. He’s a 65 runner with tools to be an everyday up-the-middle type but he has no feel to hit and seems disinterested defensively, so he only really fits in LF but also plays 2B and CF in preparation for a utility fit.
26. Ronald Torreyes, 2B Video: Torreyes is tiny; he’s listed at 5’10/150 and he’s probably 5’7. He’s fine at 2B and can actually play SS, though his size works against him staying there for any long stretches. There isn’t much power but the bat/defense are both utility fits, so it isn’t a big deal. Advanced bat control, good makeup, defensive versatility and some success in AAA are enough for him to sneak on the list.
Cistulli’s Guy
Thomas Shirley, LHP
No club was responsible for producing a larger collection of names within this site’s weekly Fringe Five column in 2014 than Houston. In all, 10 players appeared there at some point over the course of the year: batters Andrew Aplin, Conrad Gregor, Tyler Heineman, Tony Kemp, and Brett Phillips and then pitchers Josh Hader, David Rollins, Thomas Shirley, Kyle Smith, and Aaron West. Among them, Shirley was the leader — largely, that, on the strength of his first two months. Between April 6th and May 21st, the left-hander recorded strikeout and walk rates of 27.1% and 6.4%, respectively, over 10 appearances (seven starts) and 47.2 innings with Double-A Corpus Christi.
His numbers were more ordinary after that, however — in particular after a promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Following a move to the bullpen in late July, his rates (perhaps predictably) improved. Still, given his combination of a low- to mid-90s fastball and changeup — upon which offerings his pitching coach at Corpus Christi, Doug Brocail, heaped uncommonly effusive praise — it seems as though Shirley ought to be capable of neutralizing the platoon advantage enough to work in a starting capacity.
Others Of Note
C Carlos Perez is a ready-made backup backstop if he can make some slight adjustments receiving (scouts thought he was too lazy back-handing balls and didn’t go down to block enough, but was excellent when he did) but the bat is light enough that it’s more of a low-end backup. CF Andrew Aplin (Video) also got some support for the back-end of the list; most scouts have him as a 5th outfielder or up/down guy, but some have him as a 4th outfielder: he has the instincts to play center despite only 55 speed and some feel to hit, but little power.
LF Danry Vasquez may be a 55 hitter, but he’s rail-thin and a mess defensively that’s limited to left field even if he cleans up his fielding. 1B Conrad Gregor hits but it isn’t always pretty, it’s pull-oriented and there isn’t a ton of power, though that’s been true of some long-term role player types.
1B Telvin Nash has at least 70 raw power but even Astros execs agree it may be no more than a 20 bat; one scout suggest Nash as a 100 PA call-up to run into some homers before the league figures him out (and then send him back down). C Tyler Heineman is a switch-hitter that can catch and throw and make enough contact to be a big leaguer, but the tools aren’t much while C Jacob Nottingham looks great in a uniform and has a smooth stroke with the elements to be able to stick behind the plate as an offensive-oriented catcher.
Of the arms that almost made the list, righties Daniel Mengden (Video) and Derick Velazquez (Video), both 2014 draftees, will find themselves on next year’s list with solid debuts. Mengden is an athletic two-way standout at Texas A&M that has solid-average stuff and command but recently had a back issue and is only 6’1 or 6’2, so I’d like to see a full season before ranking him. Velazquez is a big athletic 6’4/200 kid from Fresno State that had fringy stuff as a starter that spiked in relief, where he sits 92-95 mph with a plus curveball and average changeup; it’s relief-only and he’s a 7th rounder that’s only thrown 23 pro innings, but I’ve got a feeling about this one and he was the last cut from the list.
RHP Kyle Smith has good numbers but it’s three fringy pitches that flash average with a troublesome delivery and arm action. There’s about a dozen other fringy, good performer-type arms that got mentioned near the end of scout calls and I’ll mention three of them here: LHP David Rollins (up to 95 mph with a fringy slider and changeup), RHP Juan Minaya (long arm action creates timing/command issues but he’s up to 97 mph) and LHP Thomas Shirley (Video Cistulli fav is up to 95 mph with fringy curveball, inconsistent changeup and lots of funk that creates deception and below-average command). I also look forward to Eno Sarris trying to pronounce the name of the Astros’ mammoth (6’8/225) 2014 6th rounder and Jon Rauch type, RHP Brock Dykxhoorn.
The Astros’ Latin program has already started to show some results under the Luhnow regime, with some kids showing tools in America and three seven figure bonus guys from this past July 2nd. The recent July 2nd signees (signed to 2015 contracts, so haven’t played a pro game yet) are CF Ronny Rafael (Video, $1.5 million for loose athlete with above average tools and plate discipline issues), SS Miguel Angel Sierra (Video, $1 million for steady Venezuelan shortstop with unspectacular tools but lots of feel and present performance) and the signee with the best early returns, RHP Franklin Perez (Video $1 million for 6’4/200 righty mostly played hoops growing up, is new to the mound and shows above average potential fastball/curveball combo from smooth delivery).
SS Joan Mauricio was one of last year’s big July 2nd signings ($600,000 bonus) and is already showing a plus arm and the ability to stay at shortstop with a projectable 6’0/150 frame to dream for more while he continues to learn the game. Five Latin prospects showing some promise stateside are SS Osvaldo Duarte (5’9 athlete is plus runner with some bat speed that plays all three up the middle positions), RHP Francis Martes (acquired in the Moran deal, will be developed as starter, has good frame and makeup, is into mid-90’s but is still a raw arm that’s mostly arm strength right now), RHP Jandel Gustave (regularly hits 100 mph with a pretty easy arm action, but little else right now, as Nathaniel saw earlier this year), LHP Reymin Guduan (6’4 lefty is already 22 and hasn’t seen full-season ball yet, but has hit 100 mph and sits 92-98 with solid-average slider at times and little else) and RHP Elieser Hernandez (isn’t a slam dunk to start but 6’1/170 19-year-old righty is athletic, sits 90-94 mph with above average changeup and has a curve that could be average).
Evaluating the Prospects: Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs have the deepest system I’ve written up so far and the most impact talent, with much of it at the upper levels. There’s a case to be made that this is the best system in baseball and it has to be in the top five, but I’ll hold off on an official determination until I’ve formally evaluated all of the candidates. The rebuilding of the organization and system is evident in looking at the types of players I rank below; a number of prospects from the 2013 July 2nd spending spree, aggressive over-slot bonuses on high upside draft prospects, solid low minors prospects acquired in trades along with hitting on nearly all the high profile, big money signings in recent years.
There’s still some position fits to work out before the fanboys will see their ideal lineups of the future in living color (see Russell and Schwarber reports for new information on that front), but the Cubs are being proactive to try to solve this, with multiple position players converting to a position of long-term need (catcher) during instructs this fall (more notes below). There’s a reason this system seems a lot like the last team I evaluated, the Red Sox, because both are among the best systems in the game and were put together with the same kinds of principles and resources along with some of the same top executives.
Here’s the primer for the series and a disclaimer about how we don’t really know anything. See the links above for the ongoing series about how I evaluate, including a five-part on the ever-complicated hit tool.
Most of what you need to know for this list is at the above links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (a notch better than the projected tools, or a 75% projection while the projected tools are a 50% projection) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below, I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets that the Cubs have in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. I’m currently doing research on the next three team at the same time and I’ll post them as I complete the research process: the Phillies, White Sox and Reds.
Big League Growth Assets
1. Javier Baez, 2B, Age 21
2. Arismendy Alcantara, 2B/CF, Age 22
3. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Age 25
4. Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Age 24
5. Junior Lake, RF, Age 24
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
The Cubs rebuild has methodical, but it’s almost over. After spending the last few years collecting prospects and building up an internal base of talent, the Cubs are on the verge of being one of the best teams in baseball. Sequencing aside, they played like a .500 team this year, and there’s some serious talent that will contribute in 2015 that should only make the team better. If the Cubs make a few notable Major League acquisitions, as is expected, they could very easily be legitimate contenders for the NL Central next year, and if their group prospects develop at a normal rate, they will probably be the favorites for the title in 2016. And perhaps for quite a while after that. The Cubs are going to be really good, and it might happen as early as next year.
50+ FV Prospects
1. Kris Bryant, 3B
Current Level/Age: AAA/22.8, 6’5/215, R/R
Drafted: 2nd overall (1st round) in 2013 out of San Diego by CHC for $6.7 million bonus
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 75/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 50/45, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: Bryant was a lanky kid in high school with huge power potential that was seen as a risky swing-and-miss type prospect, but he blossomed at San Diego into the #2 overall pick. He’s steamrolled through the minor leagues since signing; the concerns that his long limbs and power approach would lead to contact issues have been somewhat founded with high strikeouts rates, but minor league pitching isn’t challenging Bryant enough where that matters right now.
Bryant’s raw power is anywhere from a 70 to 80 for scouts and he creates it with strength, bat speed, long levers and a high finish without having to create length to his bat path like many other sluggers. His long arms create some length naturally and he’s a power hitter, so scouts don’t see much more than a 50 or 55 bat here and he’ll always come with strikeouts but there isn’t much doubt that he’ll get to most of his raw power in games. I hedged a little on the game power because it’s pretty tough to expect a guy to hit 40+ homers (80 game power) with that mark getting hit less and less often now.
Defensively, Bryant is also a little long physically to play third base, but he’s a good athlete (average to slightly above runner now) and makes the most of his tools. He takes a lot of pride in his defense but is still working on the slow roller and grounders to his back-hand side. Some scouts compare him defensively to Troy Glaus, but Bryant is a slimmer and more athletic player that has a chance to stick at the position for another 5-7 years for some scouts. He would fit well in right field and would be average or better defensively should third base not work out.
Summation: With Javier Baez looking like he may be able to stick at second base and Starlin Castro and Addison Russell at shortstop, third base is a position of need long-term with the outfield-rich Cubs and Bryant is good enough to justify leaving him there. He should spend most of the season in the big leagues, though hitters of this type often struggle in their first few big league seasons, so manage expectations in the short-term but everything is here for a star.
Upside: .275/.360/.540, 35-40 homers, average defense
FV/Risk: 70, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
2. Addison Russell, SS
Current Level/Age: AA/20.7, 6’0/195, R/R
Drafted: 11th overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Florida HS by OAK for $2.625 million bonus
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: In the summer between his junior and senior years in high school, Russell shifted off shortstop for the first time in his career to play third base for Team USA. This was all the motivation he needed to drop some of his new bulk (not all bad weight) to maintain the quickness to play up the middle: Russell went from 225 to 185 that winter, became a true shortstop and went from a fringy runner to a plus runner. He’s since matured a bit since then, but Russell has some of the broadest shoulders in baseball and scouts know his frame can handle more weight/strength and he then becomes another type of player: an average runner that plays third base with 70 raw power.
There’s no signs of that bulkier player coming back, as Russell has settled in with above average tools across the board talent that flash some 60’s on the right day. He’s got big bat speed, a solid approach, great plate coverage and the raw power to punish mistakes. The concern that scouts and the Cubs have about Russell is related to his arm action: one scout described it as “quirkiness.” There’s some length to his release and it shows up on plays deep in the hole or relays from the outfield.
As Russell gets older, loses a step and plays deeper at shortstop to compensate, this would become even more of an issue. Since he may not have the raw speed to play center field and lacks the quick actions/release for second base, his best fit if he can’t stay at shortstop would then be third base, which is the reason I explained his history in the first paragraph. A permanent move to third base would potentially change the trajectory of Russell’s career.
Scouts like Russell’s actions, hands and footwork and think he stays at short for at least the next 5-7 years, as his arm action could be corrected and he’s shown aptitude thus far in pro ball, but the standard for sticking at shortstop is different with the Cubs. Starlin Castro is entrenched at shortstop and, if Bryant can’t stick at third base, there’s a big hole there that Russell could fit into perfectly.
Summation: Russell should spend most/all of 2015 in AAA while the Cubs get a full season to work on shortening his arm action, cleaning up the few remaining weak points in his game and evaluating how their many offensive pieces fit together.
Upside: .285/.350/.470, 20-25 homers, above average defense
FV/Risk: 60, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
3. Jorge Soler, RF
Current Level/Age: MLB/22.6, 6’4/215, R/R
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for 9 years and $30 million out of Cuba on 6/30/12
Hit: 50/60, Game Power: 55/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Run: 50/45, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Soler is a fun player to watch. He’s an explosive quick-twitch power hitter with easy plus bat speed and raw power along with just enough huge cuts and erratic stuff to his game that you never know what you might see. The erratic aspects of his game slowly melted away this year as he matured mentally and had his first full year in the system with a full set or reps and without major injuries.
Coming into last year’s list-making season, I had Soler comfortably in my top 50 overall but was told by multiple scouts to move him out after an especially up-and-down showing in the Arizona Fall League. These scouts agreed that some minor makeup/maturity questions on Soler ballooned into actual on-field concerns and the Cubs have now admitted in retrospect that it may have been a bad idea to send Soler to the AFL.
After recovering from a leg injury, the club wanted him to get quality at bats, but to also take it easy on his leg, so he was instructed to essentially not go full effort to first base. This is a huge turnoff to scouts (who mostly didn’t know of these instructions), though it appeared Soler took the “take it easy” suggestion to other parts of his game and may have gotten a little lazy. To clarify, these concerns weren’t about his character, but mostly focus and maturity type stuff; something many players grow out of (Soler is still 22), but snowball for others. Those concerns haven’t evaporated, but it’s amazing what raking can do for one’s reputation. I ranked Soler 52nd on my year-end list and he’ll be much higher this year.
Soler is a good athlete for a a 6’3/225 power hitter, turning in average run times and sometimes a bit better, but I’d expect him to lose a step by his peak and he’s never been a huge hustle guy on the bases, so it doesn’t always show up in games. It’s a right field profile and he should have enough speed/defense to be around average in those areas and not be a value suck on a potential impact bat.
After asking multiple sources what happened to Soler this year, they all agreed there wasn’t a silver bullet, but a confluence of regular playing time, maturity, slight adjustments and confidence from repeated reps. Soler controlled the zone well as a teenager in Cuba against older pitchers, so the Cubs never had a doubt that would show up in the hitting line as it did this season.
Summation: Soler was fantastic in his 97 plate appearance taste of the big leagues last year after demolishing both AA and AAA. One scout compared him to Yasiel Puig, calling Soler a better hitter but not as fast as Puig. In response to these leg injuries, the Cubs medical staff used biometrics to revamp the way he runs and hopefully cut down on future injuries. He should be the right fielder from day one next year and due to this certainty, it was hard to put two prospects with no big league time ahead of him, but it’s hard to ignore a near-ready 55 bat/power shortstop and a big league ready potential 80 power third baseman.
Upside: .285/.360/.485, 25+ homers, average defense
FV/Risk: 60, Very Low (1 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: MLB
4. Kyle Schwarber, C/LF
Current Level/Age: Hi-A/21.6, 6’0/235, L/R
Drafted: 4th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of Indiana by CHC for $3.125 million bonus
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 70/70, Game Power: 40/60, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 50/50
Scouting Report: When I first got an extended look at Schwarber last summer on a loaded Collegiate team USA, I thought the middle linebacker looking dude wasn’t a good bet to stick at catcher, but he was surprisingly nimble for his size with enough ability to think about it. I wrote that he was good enough to allow him to play there in the minors and develop him as a potential defensive backup that plays once a week but is a primary at left field or first base. The problem with this is it takes time to polish defensive skills behind the plate and, in the case of advanced hitters with work to do defensively like Bryce Harper, Wil Myers and Alex Jackson most recently, clubs didn’t want to wait for the glove to develop and hold back the bat.
Schwarber signed, played mostly left field and raked like crazy; the Cubs intentionally didn’t let him catch in pro ball after a full load in college as a way to save his legs. Instructs just wrapped up in Arizona and the Cubs sent him out there with all their catching instructors specifically to see if they thought he was good enough defensively to send him out next year as a catcher and try to derive some value that way. The reviews were very positive, with an average arm, some 1.9 pop times and essentially what I and many scouts saw the summer before; enough is here to be average in time. Given his thick, muscular build, some had concerns that Schwarber can’t sit deep in a crouch, which he can’t, but the Cubs feel that he’s found a comfortable stance that can work for him.
In the last week or two, the Cubs decided to send Schwarber out next season, likely to AA, as a primary catcher playing there 4-5 times a week and DHing or playing left field on others days to get more at-bats. It’s still too early to know how well this will go and if it will affect his bat, but it’s a potential game-changer if it works. There simply aren’t advanced bats with 70 raw power that play catcher and it would also further solve some problems the Cubs could have shuffling various pieces to move a limited defensive value LF/1B fit to catcher, where there isn’t a clear long-term solution. To that end, the Cubs have been converting other position players to catcher this offseason to help solve this problem.
Schwarber is limited laterally in left field to where I think he’d only be fringy, but he isn’t exactly a dynamo at first base, so it’s still a better option if catching doesn’t work. Some scouts would go 60 on the bat and a full 70 on the game power, but especially with the catching thing now being a real option, I chose to hedge both grades a bit.
Summation: Schwarber is going to spend time this offseason with the Cubs catching coordinator on his own dime; you need buy-in from the player to successful attempt something like this and the Cubs rave about Schwarber’s makeup. At Indiana, Schwarber didn’t call the game or focus on the advanced elements of catching, so there’s still plenty to learn and some risk it never works at an every day level defensively. I’ve hedged a bit on the position and hit/power grades and think my original suggestion of a backup catcher that plays some left field and first base may be the outcome here.
Upside: .280/.360/.480, 25 homers, average defense
FV/Risk: 60, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
5. Albert Almora, CF
Current Level/Age: AA/20.5, 6’2/180, R/R
Drafted: 6th overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Florida HS by CHC for $3.9 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 55/55, Field: 65/70, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: I was a huge Almora fan in high school and I still am, but there’s been a few more bumps than expected in the ride. As I expected, the game power is coming along slowly (a broken hamate bone is a further excuse) and the strikeout rate is very low while the defense has continue to be potential Gold Glove level. He’s actually improved a tick as runner with physical maturity and his plus bat control and feel for the zone has led to lots of contact at every level.
The issue is that Almora is such a gifted hitter that’s never really needed much of a plan at the plate and, as he keeps going to higher levels, this becomes more clear via his walk rate: 3.1% and 1.4% in stops at High-A and AA last year. Almora’s challenge going forward is to find a balance between allowing his enormous skills to play at the plate while adjusting his approach to lay off enough pitches in order to get more hittable pitches. I’d love to further elaborate on this, but it’s that simple; his raw power, speed, defense and arm have never really been in question.
Summation: The Cubs saw some progress in selecting better pitches to drive late in the season and Almora had a mostly healthy year, though a nagging hamstring and the old hamate injury both bothered him at times. 2015 could be the right confluence of factors for a Soler-type breakout in the upper levels for the center fielder of the future.
Upside: .290/.340/.450, 15-20 homers, plus-plus defense
FV/Risk: 55, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
6. C.J. Edwards, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/23.1, 6’2/160, R/R
Drafted: 1464th overall (48th round) in 2011 out of South Carolina HS by TEX for $50,000 bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50
Scouting Report: Edwards was a near unknown pitcher as an amateur; you don’t see many pitchers this high on prospect lists that signed for $50,000 out of high school in the 48th round. The Cubs smartly grabbed him from Texas in the Matt Garza trade late in his breakout season in 2013. He’s still a rail-thin righty that some think will never add the necessary bulk to throw 200 innings in the big leagues, but the stuff and command projects for the middle of the rotation. Edwards sits 91-95 with some life, a curveball that could be more consistent but pretty regularly flashes plus potential and a changeup he needs to throw more that’s average. He’s super athletic with average command to match and fields his position well.
Summation: Edwards should start next year in AA and how quickly he can make adjustments and improve his consistency will dictate how fast he gets to the big leagues.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
7. Duane Underwood, RHP
Current Level/Age: Lo-A/20.2, 6’2/205, R/R
Drafted: 67th overall (2nd round) in 2012 out of Georgia HS by CHC for $1.05 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Underwood is a very loose, athletic righty, which is apparent from the first pitch on the video above from high school. He was mostly 90-94 mph with an above average to plus changeup but very inconsistent feel for a curveball along with velocity and command that would vary by a few ticks start-to-start with scouts questioning his mental makeup as a result. After signing, Underwood gained weight, threw mostly in the high-80’s and seemed like a real problem.
This year, he showed up in great shape and everything took off. He was working 93-97 mph, he was throwing his curveball harder and with more conviction in the mid-to-upper-70’s and his changeup was good as usual. The off-speed stuff still varies from start to start and may settle more at 55, but it’s still early to call it. Scouts are being cautious as they know Underwood’s history and he can still get around his curveball and have trouble commanding his pitches, but there’s frontline stuff here if he can make strides to polish the package.
Summation: Underwood has a big opportunity this off-season to get in even better shape and if he takes another step forward next year, he could be near the top of this list.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, High (4 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: High-A, 2016: AA, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
8. Pierce Johnson, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/23.4, 6’3/175, R/R
Drafted: 43rd overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Missouri State by CHC for $1.196 million bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: There were some arm action/delivery/reliever question on Johnson out of college and, while his command still isn’t rotation-ready and his finish can be a little stiff, he’s still on track to be a solid rotation piece in a few years. He’ll sit 91-95 and his curveball gets 60 to 65 grades from scouts with a changeup that’s a 55 at times. Since there’s still some command/reliever risk and #3 starter upside, he’s just behind Edwards and Underwood.
Summation: Johnson should head back to AA to start next year, but he’s another case of a player in the upper levels with the skills to be a big part of the Cubs future that will set his own timetable with his performance. If things don’t work in the rotation, he has the stuff to potentially be a closer.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
45 FV Prospects
9. Gleyber Torres, SS Video: The Venezuelan-born Torres was one of the top bonuses in the 2013 July 2nd class ($1.7 million) and was my top prospect in the group, with domestic scouts really buying into his broad tool package in his stateside debut this year. He’s an ordinary 6’1/180 with average at best power and speed, but his bat, field and throw tools are all above average and Torres has an advanced feel for all aspects of the game with outstanding makeup.
10. Billy McKinney, LF Video: McKinney came over with Russell in the Samardzija deal and is the kind of player that grows on you over time, because, despite being a 2012 first round pick, the tools aren’t huge. He has average at best power, 55 speed that fits in left field due to a below average arm and a swing where he bars out (locks lead arm), but he makes this stroke work for him, in part because his arms aren’t so long that they lengthen his bat path. He just turned 20 and he’ll likely get a taste of AA next year with a chance to be an everyday player, but is more of a high probability very good 4th outfielder.
11. Dan Vogelbach, 1B Video: I’ve written about Vogelbach a lot in recent weeks; he’s got a surprisingly loose swing and some feel to hit for a 5’11/250 bowling ball. He’s hit at every level, he has legit 60 power and he’ll be in AA next year, so he’s close to providing big league value, but he’s very limited defensively with DH his best long-term fit.
12. Eloy Jimenez, RF Video: Jimenez was the consensus top prospect in the 2013 July 2nd class and got the biggest bonus ($2.8 million) as the classic power-hitting Dominican right fielder. The 6’4/205 Jimenez has a more contact-oriented, line drive swing that he’s still learning to tap into while his big frame is still adding strength; the power projection is a 65 and he has some feel to hit, some sense of the zone, an ability to go the other way and good makeup. He just graduated from high school in the Dominican (rare for top prospects) and was bothered a bit this year by a shoulder injury, with some suggesting he could take off next year, with Soler-type upside but plenty of work to do.
13. Victor Caratini, C Video: Caratini was picked up in a trade with the Braves at this year’s trade deadline during a year when the converted catch made a lot of progress defensively. He played mostly third base in his draft year for a Miami-Dade JC club with tons of catching options, but the Braves were convinced from their looks that he could stick behind the plate, with scouts now agreeing. The frame is a little mature, his arm in only average and there won’t even be average power, but there’s feel to receive, a quick release and very smooth stroke from both sides.
14. Jake Stinnett, RHP Video: Stinnett pitched for the first time mid-way through his junior year at Maryland and was good enough to get drafted, but took off in his senior year, flashing three above average pitches and hitting 96 mph from an athletic delivery, which prompted the Cubs to take him near the top of the 2nd round. The stuff varied in the spring as Stinnett’s arm wasn’t used to the workload, but he was at his best in instructs, has mid-rotation upside and a very fresh arm for a 22-year-old. After signing and before being sent to an affiliate, Stinnett had a freak accident in Arizona on a funky hop from a fungo during PFP (pitcher fielding practice) hit him in the nuts; he needed surgery and nearly lost his testicle but I’m told he has a good sense of humor about the episode.
15. Armando Rivero, RHP Video: The 26-year-old Cuban defector signed for $3.1 million and was solid in 2013, sitting 91-94 with a slider that was a 55 at times, but the lanky 6’4 righty was still growing into his frame. This year, the stuff ticked up; he was 92-95 in some outings and 94-97 mph in others with a 55 or 60 slider, a usable 50 changeup and more consistent command. The effort in the delivery makes him relief-only and he should get a nice big league opportunity in 2015.
16. Jeimer Candelario, 3B Video: Candelario didn’t meet expectation this year and was forced to go back to Low-A after he flunked a High-A audition at age 20. He’ll be age appropriate in another try there in 2015 and appears to have grown a bit from the humbling experience. Candelario is solid at third with a plus arm, average or better raw power, a good sense of the zone and a solid stroke from both sides but got in trouble when he was too passive, which he addressed in his return engagement at Low-A last year.
17. Carson Sands, LHP Video: The 6’3/195 lefty was the Cubs 2014 4th round picks and signed for an over-slot $1.1 million. Sands was a well-known prospect that was old for his 2014 prep class, but his stuff ticked up in the spring, flashing three above average pitches and at least average command, projecting as a 3/4 starter.
40 FV Prospects
18. Jefferson Mejia, RHP Video: The surprisingly-coordinated 6’7/195 righty signed for $850,000 last July 2nd, has lots of downhill plane and huge stuff that should keep getting better: he’s up to 97 mph, flashing an above average hook and there’s still a chance he could end up as a starter. How the frame develops will dictate how this goes, but there’s tons of upside.
19. Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP Video: The Taiwanese righty signed for $1.625 million in the 2013 July 2nd spending spree; the 6’1/210 righty is developed physically and has advanced feel to pitch. Tseng sits 89-91 and hits 93 mph with a curveball and changeup that are both 50’s and command that average to above; he just turned 20 but he’s pretty maxed-out and this looks like a high probability back-end starter.
20. Dylan Cease, RHP Video: The 6’0/180 Cease sat 93-96 and hit 98 mph with a 55 curveball and usable changeup on the high school showcase circuit, then hit 100 mph on some guns early in the spring, but was shut down soon after with an elbow injury. That injury ended up needing Tommy John surgery after the Cubs paid him $1.5 million as a 6th round pick in June. Cease has some start traits but his size and inconsistency of his off-speed stuff led many to project him as a reliever; expectation are he’ll be back late in 2015 or for instructs.
21. Paul Blackburn, RHP Video: Blackburn has solid stuff, mostly average across the board with a fastball that touches 94 mph, and some projection, but also some command issues. Scouts project him for either a back-end starter or 7th/8th inning reliever, but there’s still a good bit of development needed before there will be any kind of consensus.
22. Corey Black, RHP Video: Black was picked up in the Alfonso Soriano trade last year and the 5’11/175 righty should give some big league value in late 2015 or 2016. He sits 92-96 mph in the early innings as a starter with four pitches, led by a solid-average slider and fringy to average changeup, but he’ll lose a couple ticks later in games and there’s some effort and command issues to go with the size concerns. Black will continue to start in AAA next year but it seems unlikely he’ll be a long-term starter, fitting more as a 7th inning guy that can spot start and go multiple innings.
23. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP Video: Vizcaino was acquired from the Braves in 2012 in the Paul Maholm deal and looked like a potential mid-rotation starter with big stuff that likely ended up as a closer. Vizcaino missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons with elbow injuries and had expectations to rush to the big leagues this year when he came off the DL, but had problems repeating his delivery and keeping his pitches down in the minors. He still has the same 94-97 mph fastball that touches 98, curve that flashes plus and usable changeup, but the command caused the stuff to play down and, despite starter stuff, no one thinks that’s a real option. Expectations are lower now, as some red flags get set off by a guy with a long injury history that’s not repeating his delivery.
24. Christian Villanueva, 3B Video: Villanueva put on some weight this year, but is still pretty light on his feet and could still be an above average defender at third base. There’s now above average raw power but the bat speed was down this year with a bigger swing and the same plate discipline problems from before, with one scout suggesting that being a teammate with Javier Baez was contributing to the longer swing. There’s a chance Villanueva could end up as an everyday guy, but it’s looking more like a corner utility guy now.
25. Jeffrey Baez, LF Video: Baez was described physically by a Cubs source as a “fire hydrant” but that’s okay as the 6’0/205 right hitter has easy plus raw power that’s already showing up in games and surprising speed for his size. It’s a higher maintenance body and there’s some questions about his contact ability at higher levels, but there’ a lot to work with here.
26. Justin Steele, LHP Video: Steele is a loose 6’1/180 lefty that sat around 90, hitting 93 mph with a solid average changeup on the showcase circuit, but no semblance of a curveball. It came out later he was throwing with a badly injured wrist and the pitch flashed plus potential late in the season and after the Cubs took him in the 5th round, paying him $1 million.
27. Jonathan Martinez, RHP Video: Acquired from the Dodgers this year for Darwin Barney, Martinez was a nice find for the Cubs as the righty showed starter traits in his full-season debut. Martinez sits 90-92 with a solid average slider and a changeup that flashes plus with a clean arm. He’s a good athlete, but still needs to clean up his delivery and command some to continue in the rotation.
28. Jacob Hannemann, CF Video: Hannemann signed for $1 million in the 3rd round in 2013 out of BYU and is younger in baseball terms than his advanced age at 23 due to a two-year Mormon mission. He’s still pretty crude and you’re betting on the athleticism, but he’s a plus runner that can play center field and profiles now as a good 4th outfielder, but there’s a chance for more upside with reps; the Cubs think he’s a poor man’s Jacoby Ellsbury if it all clicks.
29. Daury Torrez, RHP: Torrez is yet another power arm for the Cubs, but it’s still to early to know if he’ll be able to stick in the rotation. He sits 92-94 with a slider that’s solid average at times and a fringy changeup and command that likely will lead to a role in the bullpen, but he’ll continue for now as a starter.
30. Erick Leal, RHP, Video: The 19-year-old was acquired from Arizona this year for Tony Campana, Leal was another nice find in a low profile deal for the Cubs. He sits 90-93 with an average changeup and solid average curveball. The 6’3/190 Venezuelan is more of a pitch-to-contact type that is more control over command now and needs to learn how to use his stuff to put hitters away to reach his back-end rotation upside.
31. Rob Zastryzny, LHP Video: I saw the lefty this year with fringy to average stuff around 87-90 mph, but I was told my multiple scouts that the 2013 2nd rounder was 90-92 and hit 95 mph at times in other outings. His curveball and changeup both flash solid average and he’s a good makeup guy that competes; some see a back-end starter and others think his stuff could play up in short stints out of the bullpen.
Cistulli’s Guy
Rafael Lopez, C
A 16th-round selection by the Cubs in 2011 out of Florida State, Lopez has decidedly not rocketed upwards through the system, making his first appearance in Triple-A just this past season as a 26-year-old. In part, that’s maybe a function of him missing time to injury in 2012. In probably more part, though, it’s a function of having been a 16th-round pick. Nevertheless, as a professional, Lopez has produced encouraging plate-discipline figures, recording walk and strikeout rates of 12.2% and 15.6%, respectively, over the course of his minor-league career while also exhibiting enough power on contact to demand some respect from opposing pitchers. According to McDaniel, his defense is regarded as somewhere in the range of passable to average. In sum, Lopez offers enough to warrant consideration for a back-up role this season.
Others Of Note
I was surprised when RHP James Norwood (Video) was available in the 7th round this June for a $175,000 bonus and so were the Cubs. The 6’2/205 righty had a velo spike this year, sitting 92-95 and hitting 97 mph as a starter a solid average slider the best secondary offering in a four pitch mix. He’s more of a thrower than pitcher, so it’s likely a relief fit, but there’s a lot to like. RHP Dillon Maples got $2.5 million out of high school in 2011 and is still flashing that plus fastball-curveball combination, but the command and consistency have been big problems and the delivery is getting retooled in instructs. RHP Juan Paniagua (Video) has become my new favorite hard-throwing Latin reliever with a funny direct translation of his name (John Bread & Water), unseating Joe Table. Paniagua sits 92-94 and hits 97 mph as a starter with a slider and change that flash solid average, but his lack of feel probably leads the 24-year-old to the bullpen.
Among the other arms to watch in the system, RHP Tony Zych sits 95-97 and hit 100 mph this year but is up in the zone with limited command that undermines his above average curveball. Zych also has a last name that begs for this intro music, just like D’Backs reliever Matt Stites. Lefties Jordan Minch and Gerardo Concepcion (Video) both flash above average stuff and likely fit in the pen, with Minch’s stuff a little crisper and with a better chance to start. Colombian Erling Moreno was another signee from the 2013 July 2nd class and the 6’3/190 righty has an average three pitch mix with some projection.
There’s five more power righties worth mentioning in the system briefly: Starling Peralta (Video doesn’t really know what he’s doing but works 93-97 mph with a slider and change that flash above average), Trevor Clifton (6’4/180 righty will go to Low-A rotation next year with cleaned up delivery, but fastball and curveball both flash 60 and it’s likely a bullpen fit), Steve Perakslis (sits 90-94 and hit 97 mph late in the season with a changeup and slider both average to slightly above), Zack Cates (up to 97 mph with an average or better changeup) and Daniel Lewis (served in the military and hadn’t pitched since high school when he popped up on the Cape and sat 92-97 mph with a power slider).
2014 3rd rounder out of Virginia Tech, C/LF Mark Zagunis (Video) is one of many interesting catcher to keep tabs on in the system; he can really hit. is growing into some power and is a solid average runner but has a lot of work to do defensively and likely ends up in the outfield. C Willson Contreras made progress this year with consistency and flashes solid average raw power and plenty of tools to stick behind the plate. Former second basemen Gioskar Amaya, and Danny Lockhart (son of former Brave Keith Lockhart, a current Cubs scout) were both converting to catcher in instructs after some concerns that they could stick long-term at the keystone; both could profile as solid backups with line drive bats and have bought into the change.
Venezuelan Carlos Penalver and Korean Ho-Young Son are both glove-first shortstops that need to add some bulk to grow into potential utility guys, but both are showing signs. SS Marco Hernandez (Video) is a level or two higher than those guys and fits the same bill with a bat interesting enough to have some trade value. CF Matt Szczur has a lot of speed and some pop, but his swing holds back his offensive potential; he got a cup of coffee in 2014 and projects as a reserve.
Four athletic outfielders in the low minors caught the attention of scouts this year and are all guys to keep an eye on in 2015: RF Kevonte Mitchell (6’4/185 loose athlete performed well as a basketball player still learning baseball, controls the zone well and looks physically like Matt Kemp but is still raw), LF Shawon Dunston (son of a well-known big leaguer has matured and profiles as a 4th outfielder along the lines of McKinney), CF Trey Martin (6’4/185 athlete may be best defender in the org behind Almora, show tools, instincts and makeup but has been held back by injuries, made lots of adjustments late in the season leading some in the org to say he’s best bet to breakout in 2015) and CF Rashad Crawford (yet another tall athlete is 6’3, came on late in the season showing the ability to stick in center and tapping into some of his power in games).
There’s still some position fits to work out before the fanboys will see their ideal lineups of the future in living color (see Russell and Schwarber reports for new information on that front), but the Cubs are being proactive to try to solve this, with multiple position players converting to a position of long-term need (catcher) during instructs this fall (more notes below). There’s a reason this system seems a lot like the last team I evaluated, the Red Sox, because both are among the best systems in the game and were put together with the same kinds of principles and resources along with some of the same top executives.
Here’s the primer for the series and a disclaimer about how we don’t really know anything. See the links above for the ongoing series about how I evaluate, including a five-part on the ever-complicated hit tool.
Most of what you need to know for this list is at the above links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (a notch better than the projected tools, or a 75% projection while the projected tools are a 50% projection) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.
Below, I’ve included a quick ranking of the growth assets that the Cubs have in the majors that aren’t eligible for the list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. I’m currently doing research on the next three team at the same time and I’ll post them as I complete the research process: the Phillies, White Sox and Reds.
Big League Growth Assets
1. Javier Baez, 2B, Age 21
2. Arismendy Alcantara, 2B/CF, Age 22
3. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Age 25
4. Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Age 24
5. Junior Lake, RF, Age 24
Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron
The Cubs rebuild has methodical, but it’s almost over. After spending the last few years collecting prospects and building up an internal base of talent, the Cubs are on the verge of being one of the best teams in baseball. Sequencing aside, they played like a .500 team this year, and there’s some serious talent that will contribute in 2015 that should only make the team better. If the Cubs make a few notable Major League acquisitions, as is expected, they could very easily be legitimate contenders for the NL Central next year, and if their group prospects develop at a normal rate, they will probably be the favorites for the title in 2016. And perhaps for quite a while after that. The Cubs are going to be really good, and it might happen as early as next year.
50+ FV Prospects
1. Kris Bryant, 3B
Current Level/Age: AAA/22.8, 6’5/215, R/R
Drafted: 2nd overall (1st round) in 2013 out of San Diego by CHC for $6.7 million bonus
Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 75/80, Game Power: 55/70, Run: 50/45, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: Bryant was a lanky kid in high school with huge power potential that was seen as a risky swing-and-miss type prospect, but he blossomed at San Diego into the #2 overall pick. He’s steamrolled through the minor leagues since signing; the concerns that his long limbs and power approach would lead to contact issues have been somewhat founded with high strikeouts rates, but minor league pitching isn’t challenging Bryant enough where that matters right now.
Bryant’s raw power is anywhere from a 70 to 80 for scouts and he creates it with strength, bat speed, long levers and a high finish without having to create length to his bat path like many other sluggers. His long arms create some length naturally and he’s a power hitter, so scouts don’t see much more than a 50 or 55 bat here and he’ll always come with strikeouts but there isn’t much doubt that he’ll get to most of his raw power in games. I hedged a little on the game power because it’s pretty tough to expect a guy to hit 40+ homers (80 game power) with that mark getting hit less and less often now.
Defensively, Bryant is also a little long physically to play third base, but he’s a good athlete (average to slightly above runner now) and makes the most of his tools. He takes a lot of pride in his defense but is still working on the slow roller and grounders to his back-hand side. Some scouts compare him defensively to Troy Glaus, but Bryant is a slimmer and more athletic player that has a chance to stick at the position for another 5-7 years for some scouts. He would fit well in right field and would be average or better defensively should third base not work out.
Summation: With Javier Baez looking like he may be able to stick at second base and Starlin Castro and Addison Russell at shortstop, third base is a position of need long-term with the outfield-rich Cubs and Bryant is good enough to justify leaving him there. He should spend most of the season in the big leagues, though hitters of this type often struggle in their first few big league seasons, so manage expectations in the short-term but everything is here for a star.
Upside: .275/.360/.540, 35-40 homers, average defense
FV/Risk: 70, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
2. Addison Russell, SS
Current Level/Age: AA/20.7, 6’0/195, R/R
Drafted: 11th overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Florida HS by OAK for $2.625 million bonus
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 60/60, Game Power: 30/55, Run: 55/55, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: In the summer between his junior and senior years in high school, Russell shifted off shortstop for the first time in his career to play third base for Team USA. This was all the motivation he needed to drop some of his new bulk (not all bad weight) to maintain the quickness to play up the middle: Russell went from 225 to 185 that winter, became a true shortstop and went from a fringy runner to a plus runner. He’s since matured a bit since then, but Russell has some of the broadest shoulders in baseball and scouts know his frame can handle more weight/strength and he then becomes another type of player: an average runner that plays third base with 70 raw power.
There’s no signs of that bulkier player coming back, as Russell has settled in with above average tools across the board talent that flash some 60’s on the right day. He’s got big bat speed, a solid approach, great plate coverage and the raw power to punish mistakes. The concern that scouts and the Cubs have about Russell is related to his arm action: one scout described it as “quirkiness.” There’s some length to his release and it shows up on plays deep in the hole or relays from the outfield.
As Russell gets older, loses a step and plays deeper at shortstop to compensate, this would become even more of an issue. Since he may not have the raw speed to play center field and lacks the quick actions/release for second base, his best fit if he can’t stay at shortstop would then be third base, which is the reason I explained his history in the first paragraph. A permanent move to third base would potentially change the trajectory of Russell’s career.
Scouts like Russell’s actions, hands and footwork and think he stays at short for at least the next 5-7 years, as his arm action could be corrected and he’s shown aptitude thus far in pro ball, but the standard for sticking at shortstop is different with the Cubs. Starlin Castro is entrenched at shortstop and, if Bryant can’t stick at third base, there’s a big hole there that Russell could fit into perfectly.
Summation: Russell should spend most/all of 2015 in AAA while the Cubs get a full season to work on shortening his arm action, cleaning up the few remaining weak points in his game and evaluating how their many offensive pieces fit together.
Upside: .285/.350/.470, 20-25 homers, above average defense
FV/Risk: 60, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB, 2016: MLB
3. Jorge Soler, RF
Current Level/Age: MLB/22.6, 6’4/215, R/R
Signed: International Free Agent, signed for 9 years and $30 million out of Cuba on 6/30/12
Hit: 50/60, Game Power: 55/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Run: 50/45, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 55/55
Scouting Report: Soler is a fun player to watch. He’s an explosive quick-twitch power hitter with easy plus bat speed and raw power along with just enough huge cuts and erratic stuff to his game that you never know what you might see. The erratic aspects of his game slowly melted away this year as he matured mentally and had his first full year in the system with a full set or reps and without major injuries.
Coming into last year’s list-making season, I had Soler comfortably in my top 50 overall but was told by multiple scouts to move him out after an especially up-and-down showing in the Arizona Fall League. These scouts agreed that some minor makeup/maturity questions on Soler ballooned into actual on-field concerns and the Cubs have now admitted in retrospect that it may have been a bad idea to send Soler to the AFL.
After recovering from a leg injury, the club wanted him to get quality at bats, but to also take it easy on his leg, so he was instructed to essentially not go full effort to first base. This is a huge turnoff to scouts (who mostly didn’t know of these instructions), though it appeared Soler took the “take it easy” suggestion to other parts of his game and may have gotten a little lazy. To clarify, these concerns weren’t about his character, but mostly focus and maturity type stuff; something many players grow out of (Soler is still 22), but snowball for others. Those concerns haven’t evaporated, but it’s amazing what raking can do for one’s reputation. I ranked Soler 52nd on my year-end list and he’ll be much higher this year.
Soler is a good athlete for a a 6’3/225 power hitter, turning in average run times and sometimes a bit better, but I’d expect him to lose a step by his peak and he’s never been a huge hustle guy on the bases, so it doesn’t always show up in games. It’s a right field profile and he should have enough speed/defense to be around average in those areas and not be a value suck on a potential impact bat.
After asking multiple sources what happened to Soler this year, they all agreed there wasn’t a silver bullet, but a confluence of regular playing time, maturity, slight adjustments and confidence from repeated reps. Soler controlled the zone well as a teenager in Cuba against older pitchers, so the Cubs never had a doubt that would show up in the hitting line as it did this season.
Summation: Soler was fantastic in his 97 plate appearance taste of the big leagues last year after demolishing both AA and AAA. One scout compared him to Yasiel Puig, calling Soler a better hitter but not as fast as Puig. In response to these leg injuries, the Cubs medical staff used biometrics to revamp the way he runs and hopefully cut down on future injuries. He should be the right fielder from day one next year and due to this certainty, it was hard to put two prospects with no big league time ahead of him, but it’s hard to ignore a near-ready 55 bat/power shortstop and a big league ready potential 80 power third baseman.
Upside: .285/.360/.485, 25+ homers, average defense
FV/Risk: 60, Very Low (1 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: MLB
4. Kyle Schwarber, C/LF
Current Level/Age: Hi-A/21.6, 6’0/235, L/R
Drafted: 4th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of Indiana by CHC for $3.125 million bonus
Hit: 30/55, Raw Power: 70/70, Game Power: 40/60, Run: 40/40, Field: 40/45+, Throw: 50/50
Scouting Report: When I first got an extended look at Schwarber last summer on a loaded Collegiate team USA, I thought the middle linebacker looking dude wasn’t a good bet to stick at catcher, but he was surprisingly nimble for his size with enough ability to think about it. I wrote that he was good enough to allow him to play there in the minors and develop him as a potential defensive backup that plays once a week but is a primary at left field or first base. The problem with this is it takes time to polish defensive skills behind the plate and, in the case of advanced hitters with work to do defensively like Bryce Harper, Wil Myers and Alex Jackson most recently, clubs didn’t want to wait for the glove to develop and hold back the bat.
Schwarber signed, played mostly left field and raked like crazy; the Cubs intentionally didn’t let him catch in pro ball after a full load in college as a way to save his legs. Instructs just wrapped up in Arizona and the Cubs sent him out there with all their catching instructors specifically to see if they thought he was good enough defensively to send him out next year as a catcher and try to derive some value that way. The reviews were very positive, with an average arm, some 1.9 pop times and essentially what I and many scouts saw the summer before; enough is here to be average in time. Given his thick, muscular build, some had concerns that Schwarber can’t sit deep in a crouch, which he can’t, but the Cubs feel that he’s found a comfortable stance that can work for him.
In the last week or two, the Cubs decided to send Schwarber out next season, likely to AA, as a primary catcher playing there 4-5 times a week and DHing or playing left field on others days to get more at-bats. It’s still too early to know how well this will go and if it will affect his bat, but it’s a potential game-changer if it works. There simply aren’t advanced bats with 70 raw power that play catcher and it would also further solve some problems the Cubs could have shuffling various pieces to move a limited defensive value LF/1B fit to catcher, where there isn’t a clear long-term solution. To that end, the Cubs have been converting other position players to catcher this offseason to help solve this problem.
Schwarber is limited laterally in left field to where I think he’d only be fringy, but he isn’t exactly a dynamo at first base, so it’s still a better option if catching doesn’t work. Some scouts would go 60 on the bat and a full 70 on the game power, but especially with the catching thing now being a real option, I chose to hedge both grades a bit.
Summation: Schwarber is going to spend time this offseason with the Cubs catching coordinator on his own dime; you need buy-in from the player to successful attempt something like this and the Cubs rave about Schwarber’s makeup. At Indiana, Schwarber didn’t call the game or focus on the advanced elements of catching, so there’s still plenty to learn and some risk it never works at an every day level defensively. I’ve hedged a bit on the position and hit/power grades and think my original suggestion of a backup catcher that plays some left field and first base may be the outcome here.
Upside: .280/.360/.480, 25 homers, average defense
FV/Risk: 60, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
5. Albert Almora, CF
Current Level/Age: AA/20.5, 6’2/180, R/R
Drafted: 6th overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Florida HS by CHC for $3.9 million bonus
Hit: 20/55, Raw Power: 55/55, Game Power: 20/50, Run: 55/55, Field: 65/70, Throw: 60/60
Scouting Report: I was a huge Almora fan in high school and I still am, but there’s been a few more bumps than expected in the ride. As I expected, the game power is coming along slowly (a broken hamate bone is a further excuse) and the strikeout rate is very low while the defense has continue to be potential Gold Glove level. He’s actually improved a tick as runner with physical maturity and his plus bat control and feel for the zone has led to lots of contact at every level.
The issue is that Almora is such a gifted hitter that’s never really needed much of a plan at the plate and, as he keeps going to higher levels, this becomes more clear via his walk rate: 3.1% and 1.4% in stops at High-A and AA last year. Almora’s challenge going forward is to find a balance between allowing his enormous skills to play at the plate while adjusting his approach to lay off enough pitches in order to get more hittable pitches. I’d love to further elaborate on this, but it’s that simple; his raw power, speed, defense and arm have never really been in question.
Summation: The Cubs saw some progress in selecting better pitches to drive late in the season and Almora had a mostly healthy year, though a nagging hamstring and the old hamate injury both bothered him at times. 2015 could be the right confluence of factors for a Soler-type breakout in the upper levels for the center fielder of the future.
Upside: .290/.340/.450, 15-20 homers, plus-plus defense
FV/Risk: 55, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
6. C.J. Edwards, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/23.1, 6’2/160, R/R
Drafted: 1464th overall (48th round) in 2011 out of South Carolina HS by TEX for $50,000 bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 45/50
Scouting Report: Edwards was a near unknown pitcher as an amateur; you don’t see many pitchers this high on prospect lists that signed for $50,000 out of high school in the 48th round. The Cubs smartly grabbed him from Texas in the Matt Garza trade late in his breakout season in 2013. He’s still a rail-thin righty that some think will never add the necessary bulk to throw 200 innings in the big leagues, but the stuff and command projects for the middle of the rotation. Edwards sits 91-95 with some life, a curveball that could be more consistent but pretty regularly flashes plus potential and a changeup he needs to throw more that’s average. He’s super athletic with average command to match and fields his position well.
Summation: Edwards should start next year in AA and how quickly he can make adjustments and improve his consistency will dictate how fast he gets to the big leagues.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
7. Duane Underwood, RHP
Current Level/Age: Lo-A/20.2, 6’2/205, R/R
Drafted: 67th overall (2nd round) in 2012 out of Georgia HS by CHC for $1.05 million bonus
Fastball: 60/65, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 40/50
Scouting Report: Underwood is a very loose, athletic righty, which is apparent from the first pitch on the video above from high school. He was mostly 90-94 mph with an above average to plus changeup but very inconsistent feel for a curveball along with velocity and command that would vary by a few ticks start-to-start with scouts questioning his mental makeup as a result. After signing, Underwood gained weight, threw mostly in the high-80’s and seemed like a real problem.
This year, he showed up in great shape and everything took off. He was working 93-97 mph, he was throwing his curveball harder and with more conviction in the mid-to-upper-70’s and his changeup was good as usual. The off-speed stuff still varies from start to start and may settle more at 55, but it’s still early to call it. Scouts are being cautious as they know Underwood’s history and he can still get around his curveball and have trouble commanding his pitches, but there’s frontline stuff here if he can make strides to polish the package.
Summation: Underwood has a big opportunity this off-season to get in even better shape and if he takes another step forward next year, he could be near the top of this list.
FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, High (4 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: High-A, 2016: AA, 2017: AAA, 2018: MLB
8. Pierce Johnson, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/23.4, 6’3/175, R/R
Drafted: 43rd overall (sandwich round) in 2012 out of Missouri State by CHC for $1.196 million bonus
Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/45+
Scouting Report: There were some arm action/delivery/reliever question on Johnson out of college and, while his command still isn’t rotation-ready and his finish can be a little stiff, he’s still on track to be a solid rotation piece in a few years. He’ll sit 91-95 and his curveball gets 60 to 65 grades from scouts with a changeup that’s a 55 at times. Since there’s still some command/reliever risk and #3 starter upside, he’s just behind Edwards and Underwood.
Summation: Johnson should head back to AA to start next year, but he’s another case of a player in the upper levels with the skills to be a big part of the Cubs future that will set his own timetable with his performance. If things don’t work in the rotation, he has the stuff to potentially be a closer.
FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)
Projected Path: 2015: AA/AAA, 2016: AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB
45 FV Prospects
9. Gleyber Torres, SS Video: The Venezuelan-born Torres was one of the top bonuses in the 2013 July 2nd class ($1.7 million) and was my top prospect in the group, with domestic scouts really buying into his broad tool package in his stateside debut this year. He’s an ordinary 6’1/180 with average at best power and speed, but his bat, field and throw tools are all above average and Torres has an advanced feel for all aspects of the game with outstanding makeup.
10. Billy McKinney, LF Video: McKinney came over with Russell in the Samardzija deal and is the kind of player that grows on you over time, because, despite being a 2012 first round pick, the tools aren’t huge. He has average at best power, 55 speed that fits in left field due to a below average arm and a swing where he bars out (locks lead arm), but he makes this stroke work for him, in part because his arms aren’t so long that they lengthen his bat path. He just turned 20 and he’ll likely get a taste of AA next year with a chance to be an everyday player, but is more of a high probability very good 4th outfielder.
11. Dan Vogelbach, 1B Video: I’ve written about Vogelbach a lot in recent weeks; he’s got a surprisingly loose swing and some feel to hit for a 5’11/250 bowling ball. He’s hit at every level, he has legit 60 power and he’ll be in AA next year, so he’s close to providing big league value, but he’s very limited defensively with DH his best long-term fit.
12. Eloy Jimenez, RF Video: Jimenez was the consensus top prospect in the 2013 July 2nd class and got the biggest bonus ($2.8 million) as the classic power-hitting Dominican right fielder. The 6’4/205 Jimenez has a more contact-oriented, line drive swing that he’s still learning to tap into while his big frame is still adding strength; the power projection is a 65 and he has some feel to hit, some sense of the zone, an ability to go the other way and good makeup. He just graduated from high school in the Dominican (rare for top prospects) and was bothered a bit this year by a shoulder injury, with some suggesting he could take off next year, with Soler-type upside but plenty of work to do.
13. Victor Caratini, C Video: Caratini was picked up in a trade with the Braves at this year’s trade deadline during a year when the converted catch made a lot of progress defensively. He played mostly third base in his draft year for a Miami-Dade JC club with tons of catching options, but the Braves were convinced from their looks that he could stick behind the plate, with scouts now agreeing. The frame is a little mature, his arm in only average and there won’t even be average power, but there’s feel to receive, a quick release and very smooth stroke from both sides.
14. Jake Stinnett, RHP Video: Stinnett pitched for the first time mid-way through his junior year at Maryland and was good enough to get drafted, but took off in his senior year, flashing three above average pitches and hitting 96 mph from an athletic delivery, which prompted the Cubs to take him near the top of the 2nd round. The stuff varied in the spring as Stinnett’s arm wasn’t used to the workload, but he was at his best in instructs, has mid-rotation upside and a very fresh arm for a 22-year-old. After signing and before being sent to an affiliate, Stinnett had a freak accident in Arizona on a funky hop from a fungo during PFP (pitcher fielding practice) hit him in the nuts; he needed surgery and nearly lost his testicle but I’m told he has a good sense of humor about the episode.
15. Armando Rivero, RHP Video: The 26-year-old Cuban defector signed for $3.1 million and was solid in 2013, sitting 91-94 with a slider that was a 55 at times, but the lanky 6’4 righty was still growing into his frame. This year, the stuff ticked up; he was 92-95 in some outings and 94-97 mph in others with a 55 or 60 slider, a usable 50 changeup and more consistent command. The effort in the delivery makes him relief-only and he should get a nice big league opportunity in 2015.
16. Jeimer Candelario, 3B Video: Candelario didn’t meet expectation this year and was forced to go back to Low-A after he flunked a High-A audition at age 20. He’ll be age appropriate in another try there in 2015 and appears to have grown a bit from the humbling experience. Candelario is solid at third with a plus arm, average or better raw power, a good sense of the zone and a solid stroke from both sides but got in trouble when he was too passive, which he addressed in his return engagement at Low-A last year.
17. Carson Sands, LHP Video: The 6’3/195 lefty was the Cubs 2014 4th round picks and signed for an over-slot $1.1 million. Sands was a well-known prospect that was old for his 2014 prep class, but his stuff ticked up in the spring, flashing three above average pitches and at least average command, projecting as a 3/4 starter.
40 FV Prospects
18. Jefferson Mejia, RHP Video: The surprisingly-coordinated 6’7/195 righty signed for $850,000 last July 2nd, has lots of downhill plane and huge stuff that should keep getting better: he’s up to 97 mph, flashing an above average hook and there’s still a chance he could end up as a starter. How the frame develops will dictate how this goes, but there’s tons of upside.
19. Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP Video: The Taiwanese righty signed for $1.625 million in the 2013 July 2nd spending spree; the 6’1/210 righty is developed physically and has advanced feel to pitch. Tseng sits 89-91 and hits 93 mph with a curveball and changeup that are both 50’s and command that average to above; he just turned 20 but he’s pretty maxed-out and this looks like a high probability back-end starter.
20. Dylan Cease, RHP Video: The 6’0/180 Cease sat 93-96 and hit 98 mph with a 55 curveball and usable changeup on the high school showcase circuit, then hit 100 mph on some guns early in the spring, but was shut down soon after with an elbow injury. That injury ended up needing Tommy John surgery after the Cubs paid him $1.5 million as a 6th round pick in June. Cease has some start traits but his size and inconsistency of his off-speed stuff led many to project him as a reliever; expectation are he’ll be back late in 2015 or for instructs.
21. Paul Blackburn, RHP Video: Blackburn has solid stuff, mostly average across the board with a fastball that touches 94 mph, and some projection, but also some command issues. Scouts project him for either a back-end starter or 7th/8th inning reliever, but there’s still a good bit of development needed before there will be any kind of consensus.
22. Corey Black, RHP Video: Black was picked up in the Alfonso Soriano trade last year and the 5’11/175 righty should give some big league value in late 2015 or 2016. He sits 92-96 mph in the early innings as a starter with four pitches, led by a solid-average slider and fringy to average changeup, but he’ll lose a couple ticks later in games and there’s some effort and command issues to go with the size concerns. Black will continue to start in AAA next year but it seems unlikely he’ll be a long-term starter, fitting more as a 7th inning guy that can spot start and go multiple innings.
23. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP Video: Vizcaino was acquired from the Braves in 2012 in the Paul Maholm deal and looked like a potential mid-rotation starter with big stuff that likely ended up as a closer. Vizcaino missed the 2012 and 2013 seasons with elbow injuries and had expectations to rush to the big leagues this year when he came off the DL, but had problems repeating his delivery and keeping his pitches down in the minors. He still has the same 94-97 mph fastball that touches 98, curve that flashes plus and usable changeup, but the command caused the stuff to play down and, despite starter stuff, no one thinks that’s a real option. Expectations are lower now, as some red flags get set off by a guy with a long injury history that’s not repeating his delivery.
24. Christian Villanueva, 3B Video: Villanueva put on some weight this year, but is still pretty light on his feet and could still be an above average defender at third base. There’s now above average raw power but the bat speed was down this year with a bigger swing and the same plate discipline problems from before, with one scout suggesting that being a teammate with Javier Baez was contributing to the longer swing. There’s a chance Villanueva could end up as an everyday guy, but it’s looking more like a corner utility guy now.
25. Jeffrey Baez, LF Video: Baez was described physically by a Cubs source as a “fire hydrant” but that’s okay as the 6’0/205 right hitter has easy plus raw power that’s already showing up in games and surprising speed for his size. It’s a higher maintenance body and there’s some questions about his contact ability at higher levels, but there’ a lot to work with here.
26. Justin Steele, LHP Video: Steele is a loose 6’1/180 lefty that sat around 90, hitting 93 mph with a solid average changeup on the showcase circuit, but no semblance of a curveball. It came out later he was throwing with a badly injured wrist and the pitch flashed plus potential late in the season and after the Cubs took him in the 5th round, paying him $1 million.
27. Jonathan Martinez, RHP Video: Acquired from the Dodgers this year for Darwin Barney, Martinez was a nice find for the Cubs as the righty showed starter traits in his full-season debut. Martinez sits 90-92 with a solid average slider and a changeup that flashes plus with a clean arm. He’s a good athlete, but still needs to clean up his delivery and command some to continue in the rotation.
28. Jacob Hannemann, CF Video: Hannemann signed for $1 million in the 3rd round in 2013 out of BYU and is younger in baseball terms than his advanced age at 23 due to a two-year Mormon mission. He’s still pretty crude and you’re betting on the athleticism, but he’s a plus runner that can play center field and profiles now as a good 4th outfielder, but there’s a chance for more upside with reps; the Cubs think he’s a poor man’s Jacoby Ellsbury if it all clicks.
29. Daury Torrez, RHP: Torrez is yet another power arm for the Cubs, but it’s still to early to know if he’ll be able to stick in the rotation. He sits 92-94 with a slider that’s solid average at times and a fringy changeup and command that likely will lead to a role in the bullpen, but he’ll continue for now as a starter.
30. Erick Leal, RHP, Video: The 19-year-old was acquired from Arizona this year for Tony Campana, Leal was another nice find in a low profile deal for the Cubs. He sits 90-93 with an average changeup and solid average curveball. The 6’3/190 Venezuelan is more of a pitch-to-contact type that is more control over command now and needs to learn how to use his stuff to put hitters away to reach his back-end rotation upside.
31. Rob Zastryzny, LHP Video: I saw the lefty this year with fringy to average stuff around 87-90 mph, but I was told my multiple scouts that the 2013 2nd rounder was 90-92 and hit 95 mph at times in other outings. His curveball and changeup both flash solid average and he’s a good makeup guy that competes; some see a back-end starter and others think his stuff could play up in short stints out of the bullpen.
Cistulli’s Guy
Rafael Lopez, C
A 16th-round selection by the Cubs in 2011 out of Florida State, Lopez has decidedly not rocketed upwards through the system, making his first appearance in Triple-A just this past season as a 26-year-old. In part, that’s maybe a function of him missing time to injury in 2012. In probably more part, though, it’s a function of having been a 16th-round pick. Nevertheless, as a professional, Lopez has produced encouraging plate-discipline figures, recording walk and strikeout rates of 12.2% and 15.6%, respectively, over the course of his minor-league career while also exhibiting enough power on contact to demand some respect from opposing pitchers. According to McDaniel, his defense is regarded as somewhere in the range of passable to average. In sum, Lopez offers enough to warrant consideration for a back-up role this season.
Others Of Note
I was surprised when RHP James Norwood (Video) was available in the 7th round this June for a $175,000 bonus and so were the Cubs. The 6’2/205 righty had a velo spike this year, sitting 92-95 and hitting 97 mph as a starter a solid average slider the best secondary offering in a four pitch mix. He’s more of a thrower than pitcher, so it’s likely a relief fit, but there’s a lot to like. RHP Dillon Maples got $2.5 million out of high school in 2011 and is still flashing that plus fastball-curveball combination, but the command and consistency have been big problems and the delivery is getting retooled in instructs. RHP Juan Paniagua (Video) has become my new favorite hard-throwing Latin reliever with a funny direct translation of his name (John Bread & Water), unseating Joe Table. Paniagua sits 92-94 and hits 97 mph as a starter with a slider and change that flash solid average, but his lack of feel probably leads the 24-year-old to the bullpen.
Among the other arms to watch in the system, RHP Tony Zych sits 95-97 and hit 100 mph this year but is up in the zone with limited command that undermines his above average curveball. Zych also has a last name that begs for this intro music, just like D’Backs reliever Matt Stites. Lefties Jordan Minch and Gerardo Concepcion (Video) both flash above average stuff and likely fit in the pen, with Minch’s stuff a little crisper and with a better chance to start. Colombian Erling Moreno was another signee from the 2013 July 2nd class and the 6’3/190 righty has an average three pitch mix with some projection.
There’s five more power righties worth mentioning in the system briefly: Starling Peralta (Video doesn’t really know what he’s doing but works 93-97 mph with a slider and change that flash above average), Trevor Clifton (6’4/180 righty will go to Low-A rotation next year with cleaned up delivery, but fastball and curveball both flash 60 and it’s likely a bullpen fit), Steve Perakslis (sits 90-94 and hit 97 mph late in the season with a changeup and slider both average to slightly above), Zack Cates (up to 97 mph with an average or better changeup) and Daniel Lewis (served in the military and hadn’t pitched since high school when he popped up on the Cape and sat 92-97 mph with a power slider).
2014 3rd rounder out of Virginia Tech, C/LF Mark Zagunis (Video) is one of many interesting catcher to keep tabs on in the system; he can really hit. is growing into some power and is a solid average runner but has a lot of work to do defensively and likely ends up in the outfield. C Willson Contreras made progress this year with consistency and flashes solid average raw power and plenty of tools to stick behind the plate. Former second basemen Gioskar Amaya, and Danny Lockhart (son of former Brave Keith Lockhart, a current Cubs scout) were both converting to catcher in instructs after some concerns that they could stick long-term at the keystone; both could profile as solid backups with line drive bats and have bought into the change.
Venezuelan Carlos Penalver and Korean Ho-Young Son are both glove-first shortstops that need to add some bulk to grow into potential utility guys, but both are showing signs. SS Marco Hernandez (Video) is a level or two higher than those guys and fits the same bill with a bat interesting enough to have some trade value. CF Matt Szczur has a lot of speed and some pop, but his swing holds back his offensive potential; he got a cup of coffee in 2014 and projects as a reserve.
Four athletic outfielders in the low minors caught the attention of scouts this year and are all guys to keep an eye on in 2015: RF Kevonte Mitchell (6’4/185 loose athlete performed well as a basketball player still learning baseball, controls the zone well and looks physically like Matt Kemp but is still raw), LF Shawon Dunston (son of a well-known big leaguer has matured and profiles as a 4th outfielder along the lines of McKinney), CF Trey Martin (6’4/185 athlete may be best defender in the org behind Almora, show tools, instincts and makeup but has been held back by injuries, made lots of adjustments late in the season leading some in the org to say he’s best bet to breakout in 2015) and CF Rashad Crawford (yet another tall athlete is 6’3, came on late in the season showing the ability to stick in center and tapping into some of his power in games).
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
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Chris Young struck out against a pitching machine today.
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par for the course
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