2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

I think he's terrible. I'm more afraid of the Royals bringing Bruce Chen back than them bringing in Sanchez.

Sanchez is absolutely NOT terrible.  He has improved every year he has been in the Major Leagues, sans last season.  Two seasons ago, he was being discussed as the centerpiece of a Prince Fielder trade.

Say you dont like the guy.  Say you think Melky's value is higher.  But dont say Sanchez is terrible.  Hes not.
  
 
Cabrera trade makes little sense for the Giants.

Spoiler [+]
The hot stove is warming up, and today the San Francisco Giants sent left-hander Jonathan Sanchez to the Kansas City Royals for outfielder Melky Cabrera. I don't really understand either team's motivation to make this deal, but if I have to choose one side, it's Kansas City's.

Sanchez took a step forward in 2010, or appeared to do so, but still led the National League in walks. He saw his control abandon him in 2011 (5.9 walks per nine) while his velocity was the lowest of his career. Sanchez has some arm-side run on an average fastball but no sink, and likes to pitch all over the zone with it, including the upper half where neither his command nor his velocity is good enough to survive. His best pitch is a hard changeup, often only 5-to-6 mph below the fastball, but it's deceptive because of arm speed, and he throws a soft-breaking slider that hovers around 80 mph. But since everything he throws moves in toward right-handed hitters he's going to continue to show a platoon split, and will be increasingly reliant on deception to survive unless his velocity recovers or he finds another pitch to keep hitters off balance.

The Royals also get Ryan Verdugo, a left-handed starter who doesn't have the command or control to stay in that role, but who is effective enough against lefties with an above-average fastball-slider combo to profile as a big leaguer in the pen.

For the Giants this makes little to no sense, and closer to the latter. Melky Cabrera is a below-average defender in center who partially makes up for the lack of range with a strong arm, but AT&T Park is one of the least forgiving center field spots in the game. The Giants already made this mistake once by signing Aaron Rowand -- who was nothing special in a smaller center field in Philly -- to man center for them, and seemed to grasp the magnitude of the problem when they took speedy Gary Brown in the first round of the 2010 draft. Cabrera is just a one-year stopgap until Brown is ready (they hope), but when I call Cabrera a fourth outfielder, that doesn't mean the Giants get to play three others alongside him to make up for all the balls he won't catch. The trade also leaves the Giants with either soft-tossing Eric Surkamp or softer-tossing Barry Zito as their fifth starter, neither of whom should get Giants fans excited, even with Sanchez' maddening inconsistency.

The Royals get a year of a wild starter who will probably make around $7 million once his arbitration case is settled, and maybe a draft pick or two when he leaves if he bounces back from a disastrous 2011. They also get a useful left-handed prospect who's probably a reliever. The Giants get one year of a center fielder who can't play center and whose bat doesn't profile in a corner, with no seasonal OBP over .339 since his rookie year in 2006, for probably $4 million, and some small chance of a draft pick there too. At least the Royals can hope that the inconsistency of pitchers brings them a good year from Sanchez, but 2011 was Melky's high-water mark and it wasn't all that great.

• I was asked a few times on Twitter about Yoennis Cespedes, a Cuban outfielder who may become a free agent here in the next few weeks, after he's cleared by the U.S. government and by the Commissioner's Office. (I received conflicting information over whether the second part has already occurred.) What we do know on Cespedes is that he has plus power (including opposite-field power) and can run, with a 6.5 60-yard dash time in a recent workout, and he's really well put together physically. He's also listed at 26, an age we'll have to take on faith as Cuban ages are all but impossible to verify, and he's spent his career from age 18 to 25 mashing in a league that's equivalent to low Class A or worse. Leonys Martin hit .311/.492/.491 in his last full year in Cuba, then dropped to .295/.362/.421 between Double-A and Triple-A here, doing most of the damage in the former. Cespedes is bigger than Martin, much stronger, and has a far more conventional swing -- with a wider, more stable base, although he has a busy lower half. However, he is three years older and may, like Martin, have to spend time in the minors adjusting to better pitching than he saw in Cuba.

Buyer's guide to the middle IF.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]Players in demand[/h3]
1. Jose Reyes, SS: When healthy, Reyes is a legitimate star who contributes to his team via his bat, glove and speed. He has a good eye and gets on base at a high clip that also allows him to put that speed to greater use. But he was not often healthy the last few years, and the fact that his main issue is in his legs is a huge concern for any team thinking about giving him five years, even though at 28 he should be in his offensive prime.

2. Jimmy Rollins, SS: Like Reyes, Rollins has had leg injuries that limit his value and will give teams pause when looking at contract length. But unlike Reyes, Rollins didn't have the huge platform year heading into free agency. When healthy Rollins once had an above-average glove at short, but the leg injuries have hurt his range, and the soon-to-be 33-year-old is already into his defensive decline years anyway. I'd take a shot at him as a short-term shortstop, but beyond two or three years he's a candidate to move to second base or out of the infield.

3. Kelly Johnson, 2B: He's all-or-nothing, depending on the year. I'd prefer to see him back in left field -- which is where he played when he broke in with the Atlanta Braves -- as he's fringy at best at second and probably below average over the long haul. But he does work deep counts, draw some walks, and hit for more power than your typical second baseman, so I'd expect plenty of interest from buy-low teams who offer him short-duration deals.
[h3]Players to avoid[/h3]
1. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS: Yuni went from the tougher league to the easier one ... and saw his OBP and slugging both drop. His 2011 OBP after we take out the three intentional walks -- and really, if the guy on deck is still breathing, there is no justification for walking Betancourt -- was .267. That's 11 outs in every 15 trips to the plate. And he's a below-average fielder. I can see the San Francisco Giants giving him three years.

2. Alex Gonzalez, SS: He has mistake power and can play shortstop, but he has posted an OBP below .295 in each of the last three years. As the 25th man on a roster, he's a better choice than yet another right-handed middle reliever. As an everyday shortstop, he should drive fans to grab their pitchforks.

3. Willie Bloomquist, UT: He's not even worth the roster spot, yet teams keep giving him one. It's like he has incriminating photos of every GM in the league.
[h3]Trade targets[/h3]
1. Jed Lowrie, SS/2B and Mike Aviles, 2B, Boston Red Sox: Now that the Red Sox have picked up Marco Scutaro's option, they don't need Lowrie and Aviles, both of whom are eligible for arbitration (although the money involved is small change to Boston). Lowrie can hit enough to play short or second and plays fringe-average defense at shortstop, but he can't stay healthy; he's had wrist and shoulder injuries as well as mono, so he hasn't played 100 games in a calendar year since 2008. Aviles is probably more available but also less appealing, as he never walks and is below average at short, making him more of a fringe starting option at second base than a potential starter at short.

2. Sean Rodriguez, SS/2B, Tampa Bay Rays: An ideal utility player who can play a passable shortstop and is above average at second or third, Rodriguez posted consistently high OBPs in the minors, but has struggled to catch up to better fastballs in the big leagues. There could be some hidden value here, as Rodriguez dropped his leg kick for a toe tap in September and seemed to make more and better-quality contact. Teammate Reid Brignac could be available in a year or so if top prospect Hak-Ju Lee continues to develop as expected.
3. Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona GM Kevin Towers has sounded pessimistic about Drew coming back from a broken ankle to be the same player he was before the injury, and I'm not sure the Diamondbacks should be paying over $9 million (including the 2013 option buyout) to a player they don't believe will be an above-average shortstop any longer. The problem for Arizona is the lack of a full-time replacement -- John McDonald is strictly a backup -- but if they can add another shortstop it would make more financial sense to shop Drew and invest that money elsewhere.

Buyer's guide for 1B/DH.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]Players in demand[/h3]
1. Prince Fielder: He will play 2012 at age 28, so the team that signs him gets his peak years plus some early decline years instead of all decline. Fielder hits, hits for power, gets on base (even outside of the intentional walks) and has shown signs of improvement against left-handed pitchers. There are red flags, including his weight and below-average defense, but the potential for several years of high OBPs and 35-plus home runs make him top dog in this market.

2. Albert Pujols: This is the best free agent for 2012 performance, probably for 2013 as well. He is a complete offensive player who brings plus defense at first base. But Pujols will play 2012 at age 32, so a seven-year deal takes him almost to his 40th birthday. Even elite corner position players tend to decline well before they hit 40. Ranking him second is a reflection of the risk involved with a hitter his age.

3. Carlos Pena: Big drop-off from No. 2 to No. 3, isn't it? Pena crushes right-handed pitching, getting on base and hitting for power, but he needs a right-handed platoon-mate to handle southpaws. He'll add a little value with his glove and everyone raves about his makeup, but the bottom line is that he's not a 162-game solution at first base -- he's just better than the other options on the market. If you don't need defense and are just looking for a DH, David Ortiz slots in here.
[h3]Players to avoid[/h3]
1. Casey Kotchman: He's a great defender who has always had a decent eye at the plate. However, he has a .280 career batting average on balls in play, and that suddenly spiked to .335 this season, which is the reason behind his career-high .306 average. And even so, he still had below-average power. That is the definition of fool's gold. Well, that and two sulfur atoms plus one of iron.

2. Derrek Lee: A once great player who was terrible all year until September, when he had 24 good games that will probably trick someone into thinking there's life left in the bat. He struggles with elite velocity and sliders. He doesn't rake against left-handed pitchers to give him value in a platoon. And he gets hurt a lot. Most clubs will be able to do better with internal options that cost less.

3. Lyle Overbay: Like Lee, Overbay had a very small late surge that might make it look as if he can still help a big league club. Like Lee, Overbay has little or nothing left and doesn't even have value as a pinch hitter against right-handers. A broken wrist in Toronto diminished Overbay's bat and likely curtailed his career, but there's no undoing the four-plus years since the injury when his declining performance points to a minor-league invite or retirement.
[h3]Trade targets[/h3]
1. Justin Smoak and Mike Carp, Seattle Mariners: Smoak was supposed to be the Mariners' first baseman of the future, got off to a pretty good start, then lost his father suddenly in early June and hurt his thumb shortly thereafter, two events that derailed his season. Carp took over the job and hit for more average and a lot more power but also had atrocious plate discipline and mixed results from his first two years in Triple-A. Either one of these guys could be available, but the point is that Seattle has no need to keep both -- or either if it makes a big splash and signs one of the two big free agents.

2. Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels: If Morales is healthy, Trumbo becomes expendable. I can't imagine new Angels GM Jerry Dipoto will overlook Trumbo's terrible OBP, so I'm assuming Morales is the one who stays. As much as we all look down on Trumbo's on-base skills -- you certainly can't see it if you look up -- he does have substantial raw power, and there's a non-zero chance he'll get his OBP up into the low .300s and make a career for himself. For a team with nothing at first base, two years of Trumbo for about $900,000 sounds pretty good.
3. Logan Morrison, Florida Marlins: Morrison can hit, hit for power and get on base -- his composite OBPs for each of the three seasons before 2011 were over .400, including time in the minors. However, he can't play left field, and he ran afoul of Marlins management for his outspokenness on Twitter (which makes him one of the best players to follow). That conflict led to a punitive demotion to the minors, over which Morrison has filed a grievance. The best solution for all parties would be a trade that sends Morrison somewhere where he can play his natural position, first base, and gives the Marlins a milquetoast or two who will tweet more nicely but won't be as productive on the field.

Which Melky will SF get?

Spoiler [+]
Brian Sabean has fired his first salvo of the 2011 offseason, acquiring outfielder Melky Cabrera from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Ryan Verdugo.

Before we can even begin to analyze this trade, I believe we have to divorce the names of the players from their actual production. Melky Cabrera has been something of a punching bag among writers and analysts for a variety of reasons, ranging from his poor shape to his lousy attitude to awful production in 2008 and 2010.

Cabrera is, of course, coming off the best season of his life. He finished a remarkable fourth in hits in the American League. Part of this is the less robust production of singles hitting as opposed to high power or on-base percentage, but he still finished with a .349 wOBA, a 118 wRC+ and 4.2 WAR in his age 26 season.

There are certainly reasons to believe Cabrera will regress in 2012. His BABIP of .332 is a career high and there is little reason to believe he is like an Ichiro Suzuki or a Matt Kemp and can routinely sustain such good results on balls in play. His power level (44 doubles, 18 home runs, a .162 ISO) was also previously unseen, blasting his old career highs out of the water.

This would be a particularly massive red flag if Cabrera were just finishing his age 32 season like a certain Giants center fielder one year ago. But Cabrera will be a mere 27 years old for much of the 2012 season, putting him in his prime for the year of control the Giants now own and any potential contract extension the Giants may offer.

So while the BABIP may regress, it is hardly a guarantee the other components that made Cabrera a good hitter will fall with it. His 2011 HR/FB rate of 9.8% is something he’s done before — 2009, with New York, he hit 10.3% of fly balls for home runs. His .162 isolated power is a mere 14 points above his previous career high (again, 2009). His contact rate was exceptionally high as usual, with his 13.3% strikeout rate ranking in the top third of qualified players.

Even if (when?) his BABIP slips back to the .300 range, the Giants are probably looking at about a .285/.315/.415 hitter when all is said and done. As underwhelming as that sounds, the resulting .730 OPS (or, if you prefer, a roughly .321 wOBA) would tie him exactly for third place among Giants hitters (300 or more plate appearances) with Cody Ross; if we decrease the threshold to 200 or more plate appearances, then Pat Burrell sneaks in as well. Cabrera won’t be a great hitter, but he is a near certainty to improve on the Giants NL-worst group from 2011.

Questions linger about Cabrera’s ability to play the field, and the prospect of him as a full-time center fielder is a scary one. Poor ratings from defensive metrics aside, Cabrera simply doesn’t appear to have the body or the speed to handle the rigors of center field. If the Giants choose to use him there, he will almost certainly be a downgrade from either Andres Torres. The Giants could play him in left field, where he should be serviceable, but then, of course, the value of his average-to-good bat decreases by a fair margin.

With the pitching staff the Giants possess, though, it may not matter as much as it usually would. Last year’s Giants ranked second in the league in strikeouts per nine innings and fourth in ground ball rate. As such, the Giants keep the ball away from their outfielder more than other teams, and the impact of Cabrera’s poor defense shouldn’t be seen as much as it would with a fly ball or contact-oriented staff.

The key player heading to Kansas City, Jonathan Sanchez, was a member of that vaunted 2009 Giants rotation and has a 3.07 ERA in a championship season to his name. As much as analytical types ignore ERA, such a performance will linger in the memories of fans for a long time, particularly those fans who reside west of the Rocky Mountains. Still, Sanchez has the highest walk rate in the majors, and as Dave Cameron points out, his surface production doesn’t hold up under deeper analysis.

The Giants will have to find a starter to replace Sanchez, but between Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong, the rotation should endure. The hitters are coming off an 83 wRC+ season, ranking between the Twins and the Mariners, constant sources of offensive offense last season. The Giants will need competent bats to get back to the postseason. It’s easy to read the name Melky Cabrera and laugh or shrug him off, but the performance he showed as a 26-year-old is more than enough to give San Francisco confidence he can be the first brick in the rebuilding of the Giants’ lineup.

Jonathan Sanchez isn't as good as his K%.

Spoiler [+]
From 2008 to 2011, Jonathan Sanchez has the fourth highest strikeout rate (24.1%) of any starting pitcher in baseball (500 IP minimum), ranking behind only Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, and Yovani Gallardo. Given this ability to consistently miss bats, Sanchez is often lauded as a pitcher with a lot of untapped potential. Pitchers who can post those kinds of strikeout rates are often quite successful, and if Sanchez could just refine the other parts of his game, he looks like he could turn into a dominant starting pitcher.

There’s just one problem – Sanchez isn’t even close to refining those other parts of his game, and we simply can’t ignore that he’s a massively flawed pitcher. Over the same time period (and again, 500 inning minimum), no starting pitcher has posted a worse walk rate than Sanchez’s 12.3% mark, and it’s not even all that close. The next worst mark is Gio Gonzalez, more than a full percentage point behind, and he is then followed closely by Barry Zito.

Sanchez’s high walk and high strikeout rates are the product of his propensity for pitching up in the strike zone, where contact is less frequent but so is the likelihood of getting a called strike. By pitching up in the zone, Sanchez is essentially choosing a strategy that increases the likelihood of deep counts, thus increasing both his walk and strikeout rates. Unlike some other high walk/high strikeout pitchers who simply need to improve their command of premium stuff, Sanchez is getting his whiffs through location, and if he began to throw more strikes, he’d likely see a significant drop in his strikeout rate as well.

Evaluating what Sanchez could be if he could just get his walks under control is a bit of a fantasy, and one that is not likely to come into being. Instead, we need to evaluate Sanchez for what he actually is, and that requires looking at the negative value of the walks in addition to the positive value of the strikeouts.

This pitch-to-no-contact strategy has essentially resulted in Sanchez being the poster boy for a league average starting pitcher. In just over 700 career innings, his career ERA- is 103, just slightly higher than his FIP/xFIP marks (both 100). These are basically identical to the league averages posted by starting pitchers over that time frame. On a per-inning basis, Sanchez has personified an average starting pitcher, but his high pitch counts and health problems have limited his innings totals, making him slightly below average when quantity is considered with quality of innings pitched.

Average (or slightly below average) pitchers certainly have value – guys like Jon Garland, Carl Pavano, Brett Myers, and Randy Wolf have all been given decent contracts as free agents over the past few winters based on similar-*%@ production, though each go about getting to their averageness in different ways. The going rate for this type of pitcher tends to be in the $8 million per year range and they’ve historically gotten 2-3 guaranteed years depending on prior health. Given Sanchez’s arm problems, he’d be on the low end of the durability spectrum, but he’d probably have been able to command a two year deal if he was a free agent.

Because he’s under team control for one more season, the Royals get to forego the risk of having to guarantee multiple years to acquire an average starting pitcher. However, since Sanchez is headed to arbitration with 5+ years of service time and made $4.8 million in salary last year, they’re probably not going to save much in annual average value compared to signing a comparable free agent. Sanchez is likely to get a salary for 2012 in the $6-$8 million range, not far from what similar pitchers will land in free agency.

There’s certainly some value in avoiding the multiple years needed to sign a free agent, so Sanchez is a positive asset, even though his salary is approaching something close to market value. The Royals also have more depth in the outfield than they do in the rotation, so it’s understandable why they would want to swap Melky Cabrera for Sanchez in order to better reallocate their resources.

That said, Kansas City should be realistic about what they’re getting in return for Cabrera – a guy who doesn’t have the kind of upside that might be suggested from a cursory look at his strikeout rate, and has essentially proven to be an average starting pitcher with durability questions throughout his career. He’ll make their rotation a bit better than it was before the deal, but he’s not the kind of “front line starter
 
Cabrera trade makes little sense for the Giants.

Spoiler [+]
The hot stove is warming up, and today the San Francisco Giants sent left-hander Jonathan Sanchez to the Kansas City Royals for outfielder Melky Cabrera. I don't really understand either team's motivation to make this deal, but if I have to choose one side, it's Kansas City's.

Sanchez took a step forward in 2010, or appeared to do so, but still led the National League in walks. He saw his control abandon him in 2011 (5.9 walks per nine) while his velocity was the lowest of his career. Sanchez has some arm-side run on an average fastball but no sink, and likes to pitch all over the zone with it, including the upper half where neither his command nor his velocity is good enough to survive. His best pitch is a hard changeup, often only 5-to-6 mph below the fastball, but it's deceptive because of arm speed, and he throws a soft-breaking slider that hovers around 80 mph. But since everything he throws moves in toward right-handed hitters he's going to continue to show a platoon split, and will be increasingly reliant on deception to survive unless his velocity recovers or he finds another pitch to keep hitters off balance.

The Royals also get Ryan Verdugo, a left-handed starter who doesn't have the command or control to stay in that role, but who is effective enough against lefties with an above-average fastball-slider combo to profile as a big leaguer in the pen.

For the Giants this makes little to no sense, and closer to the latter. Melky Cabrera is a below-average defender in center who partially makes up for the lack of range with a strong arm, but AT&T Park is one of the least forgiving center field spots in the game. The Giants already made this mistake once by signing Aaron Rowand -- who was nothing special in a smaller center field in Philly -- to man center for them, and seemed to grasp the magnitude of the problem when they took speedy Gary Brown in the first round of the 2010 draft. Cabrera is just a one-year stopgap until Brown is ready (they hope), but when I call Cabrera a fourth outfielder, that doesn't mean the Giants get to play three others alongside him to make up for all the balls he won't catch. The trade also leaves the Giants with either soft-tossing Eric Surkamp or softer-tossing Barry Zito as their fifth starter, neither of whom should get Giants fans excited, even with Sanchez' maddening inconsistency.

The Royals get a year of a wild starter who will probably make around $7 million once his arbitration case is settled, and maybe a draft pick or two when he leaves if he bounces back from a disastrous 2011. They also get a useful left-handed prospect who's probably a reliever. The Giants get one year of a center fielder who can't play center and whose bat doesn't profile in a corner, with no seasonal OBP over .339 since his rookie year in 2006, for probably $4 million, and some small chance of a draft pick there too. At least the Royals can hope that the inconsistency of pitchers brings them a good year from Sanchez, but 2011 was Melky's high-water mark and it wasn't all that great.

• I was asked a few times on Twitter about Yoennis Cespedes, a Cuban outfielder who may become a free agent here in the next few weeks, after he's cleared by the U.S. government and by the Commissioner's Office. (I received conflicting information over whether the second part has already occurred.) What we do know on Cespedes is that he has plus power (including opposite-field power) and can run, with a 6.5 60-yard dash time in a recent workout, and he's really well put together physically. He's also listed at 26, an age we'll have to take on faith as Cuban ages are all but impossible to verify, and he's spent his career from age 18 to 25 mashing in a league that's equivalent to low Class A or worse. Leonys Martin hit .311/.492/.491 in his last full year in Cuba, then dropped to .295/.362/.421 between Double-A and Triple-A here, doing most of the damage in the former. Cespedes is bigger than Martin, much stronger, and has a far more conventional swing -- with a wider, more stable base, although he has a busy lower half. However, he is three years older and may, like Martin, have to spend time in the minors adjusting to better pitching than he saw in Cuba.

Buyer's guide to the middle IF.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]Players in demand[/h3]
1. Jose Reyes, SS: When healthy, Reyes is a legitimate star who contributes to his team via his bat, glove and speed. He has a good eye and gets on base at a high clip that also allows him to put that speed to greater use. But he was not often healthy the last few years, and the fact that his main issue is in his legs is a huge concern for any team thinking about giving him five years, even though at 28 he should be in his offensive prime.

2. Jimmy Rollins, SS: Like Reyes, Rollins has had leg injuries that limit his value and will give teams pause when looking at contract length. But unlike Reyes, Rollins didn't have the huge platform year heading into free agency. When healthy Rollins once had an above-average glove at short, but the leg injuries have hurt his range, and the soon-to-be 33-year-old is already into his defensive decline years anyway. I'd take a shot at him as a short-term shortstop, but beyond two or three years he's a candidate to move to second base or out of the infield.

3. Kelly Johnson, 2B: He's all-or-nothing, depending on the year. I'd prefer to see him back in left field -- which is where he played when he broke in with the Atlanta Braves -- as he's fringy at best at second and probably below average over the long haul. But he does work deep counts, draw some walks, and hit for more power than your typical second baseman, so I'd expect plenty of interest from buy-low teams who offer him short-duration deals.
[h3]Players to avoid[/h3]
1. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS: Yuni went from the tougher league to the easier one ... and saw his OBP and slugging both drop. His 2011 OBP after we take out the three intentional walks -- and really, if the guy on deck is still breathing, there is no justification for walking Betancourt -- was .267. That's 11 outs in every 15 trips to the plate. And he's a below-average fielder. I can see the San Francisco Giants giving him three years.

2. Alex Gonzalez, SS: He has mistake power and can play shortstop, but he has posted an OBP below .295 in each of the last three years. As the 25th man on a roster, he's a better choice than yet another right-handed middle reliever. As an everyday shortstop, he should drive fans to grab their pitchforks.

3. Willie Bloomquist, UT: He's not even worth the roster spot, yet teams keep giving him one. It's like he has incriminating photos of every GM in the league.
[h3]Trade targets[/h3]
1. Jed Lowrie, SS/2B and Mike Aviles, 2B, Boston Red Sox: Now that the Red Sox have picked up Marco Scutaro's option, they don't need Lowrie and Aviles, both of whom are eligible for arbitration (although the money involved is small change to Boston). Lowrie can hit enough to play short or second and plays fringe-average defense at shortstop, but he can't stay healthy; he's had wrist and shoulder injuries as well as mono, so he hasn't played 100 games in a calendar year since 2008. Aviles is probably more available but also less appealing, as he never walks and is below average at short, making him more of a fringe starting option at second base than a potential starter at short.

2. Sean Rodriguez, SS/2B, Tampa Bay Rays: An ideal utility player who can play a passable shortstop and is above average at second or third, Rodriguez posted consistently high OBPs in the minors, but has struggled to catch up to better fastballs in the big leagues. There could be some hidden value here, as Rodriguez dropped his leg kick for a toe tap in September and seemed to make more and better-quality contact. Teammate Reid Brignac could be available in a year or so if top prospect Hak-Ju Lee continues to develop as expected.
3. Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona GM Kevin Towers has sounded pessimistic about Drew coming back from a broken ankle to be the same player he was before the injury, and I'm not sure the Diamondbacks should be paying over $9 million (including the 2013 option buyout) to a player they don't believe will be an above-average shortstop any longer. The problem for Arizona is the lack of a full-time replacement -- John McDonald is strictly a backup -- but if they can add another shortstop it would make more financial sense to shop Drew and invest that money elsewhere.

Buyer's guide for 1B/DH.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]Players in demand[/h3]
1. Prince Fielder: He will play 2012 at age 28, so the team that signs him gets his peak years plus some early decline years instead of all decline. Fielder hits, hits for power, gets on base (even outside of the intentional walks) and has shown signs of improvement against left-handed pitchers. There are red flags, including his weight and below-average defense, but the potential for several years of high OBPs and 35-plus home runs make him top dog in this market.

2. Albert Pujols: This is the best free agent for 2012 performance, probably for 2013 as well. He is a complete offensive player who brings plus defense at first base. But Pujols will play 2012 at age 32, so a seven-year deal takes him almost to his 40th birthday. Even elite corner position players tend to decline well before they hit 40. Ranking him second is a reflection of the risk involved with a hitter his age.

3. Carlos Pena: Big drop-off from No. 2 to No. 3, isn't it? Pena crushes right-handed pitching, getting on base and hitting for power, but he needs a right-handed platoon-mate to handle southpaws. He'll add a little value with his glove and everyone raves about his makeup, but the bottom line is that he's not a 162-game solution at first base -- he's just better than the other options on the market. If you don't need defense and are just looking for a DH, David Ortiz slots in here.
[h3]Players to avoid[/h3]
1. Casey Kotchman: He's a great defender who has always had a decent eye at the plate. However, he has a .280 career batting average on balls in play, and that suddenly spiked to .335 this season, which is the reason behind his career-high .306 average. And even so, he still had below-average power. That is the definition of fool's gold. Well, that and two sulfur atoms plus one of iron.

2. Derrek Lee: A once great player who was terrible all year until September, when he had 24 good games that will probably trick someone into thinking there's life left in the bat. He struggles with elite velocity and sliders. He doesn't rake against left-handed pitchers to give him value in a platoon. And he gets hurt a lot. Most clubs will be able to do better with internal options that cost less.

3. Lyle Overbay: Like Lee, Overbay had a very small late surge that might make it look as if he can still help a big league club. Like Lee, Overbay has little or nothing left and doesn't even have value as a pinch hitter against right-handers. A broken wrist in Toronto diminished Overbay's bat and likely curtailed his career, but there's no undoing the four-plus years since the injury when his declining performance points to a minor-league invite or retirement.
[h3]Trade targets[/h3]
1. Justin Smoak and Mike Carp, Seattle Mariners: Smoak was supposed to be the Mariners' first baseman of the future, got off to a pretty good start, then lost his father suddenly in early June and hurt his thumb shortly thereafter, two events that derailed his season. Carp took over the job and hit for more average and a lot more power but also had atrocious plate discipline and mixed results from his first two years in Triple-A. Either one of these guys could be available, but the point is that Seattle has no need to keep both -- or either if it makes a big splash and signs one of the two big free agents.

2. Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels: If Morales is healthy, Trumbo becomes expendable. I can't imagine new Angels GM Jerry Dipoto will overlook Trumbo's terrible OBP, so I'm assuming Morales is the one who stays. As much as we all look down on Trumbo's on-base skills -- you certainly can't see it if you look up -- he does have substantial raw power, and there's a non-zero chance he'll get his OBP up into the low .300s and make a career for himself. For a team with nothing at first base, two years of Trumbo for about $900,000 sounds pretty good.
3. Logan Morrison, Florida Marlins: Morrison can hit, hit for power and get on base -- his composite OBPs for each of the three seasons before 2011 were over .400, including time in the minors. However, he can't play left field, and he ran afoul of Marlins management for his outspokenness on Twitter (which makes him one of the best players to follow). That conflict led to a punitive demotion to the minors, over which Morrison has filed a grievance. The best solution for all parties would be a trade that sends Morrison somewhere where he can play his natural position, first base, and gives the Marlins a milquetoast or two who will tweet more nicely but won't be as productive on the field.

Which Melky will SF get?

Spoiler [+]
Brian Sabean has fired his first salvo of the 2011 offseason, acquiring outfielder Melky Cabrera from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Ryan Verdugo.

Before we can even begin to analyze this trade, I believe we have to divorce the names of the players from their actual production. Melky Cabrera has been something of a punching bag among writers and analysts for a variety of reasons, ranging from his poor shape to his lousy attitude to awful production in 2008 and 2010.

Cabrera is, of course, coming off the best season of his life. He finished a remarkable fourth in hits in the American League. Part of this is the less robust production of singles hitting as opposed to high power or on-base percentage, but he still finished with a .349 wOBA, a 118 wRC+ and 4.2 WAR in his age 26 season.

There are certainly reasons to believe Cabrera will regress in 2012. His BABIP of .332 is a career high and there is little reason to believe he is like an Ichiro Suzuki or a Matt Kemp and can routinely sustain such good results on balls in play. His power level (44 doubles, 18 home runs, a .162 ISO) was also previously unseen, blasting his old career highs out of the water.

This would be a particularly massive red flag if Cabrera were just finishing his age 32 season like a certain Giants center fielder one year ago. But Cabrera will be a mere 27 years old for much of the 2012 season, putting him in his prime for the year of control the Giants now own and any potential contract extension the Giants may offer.

So while the BABIP may regress, it is hardly a guarantee the other components that made Cabrera a good hitter will fall with it. His 2011 HR/FB rate of 9.8% is something he’s done before — 2009, with New York, he hit 10.3% of fly balls for home runs. His .162 isolated power is a mere 14 points above his previous career high (again, 2009). His contact rate was exceptionally high as usual, with his 13.3% strikeout rate ranking in the top third of qualified players.

Even if (when?) his BABIP slips back to the .300 range, the Giants are probably looking at about a .285/.315/.415 hitter when all is said and done. As underwhelming as that sounds, the resulting .730 OPS (or, if you prefer, a roughly .321 wOBA) would tie him exactly for third place among Giants hitters (300 or more plate appearances) with Cody Ross; if we decrease the threshold to 200 or more plate appearances, then Pat Burrell sneaks in as well. Cabrera won’t be a great hitter, but he is a near certainty to improve on the Giants NL-worst group from 2011.

Questions linger about Cabrera’s ability to play the field, and the prospect of him as a full-time center fielder is a scary one. Poor ratings from defensive metrics aside, Cabrera simply doesn’t appear to have the body or the speed to handle the rigors of center field. If the Giants choose to use him there, he will almost certainly be a downgrade from either Andres Torres. The Giants could play him in left field, where he should be serviceable, but then, of course, the value of his average-to-good bat decreases by a fair margin.

With the pitching staff the Giants possess, though, it may not matter as much as it usually would. Last year’s Giants ranked second in the league in strikeouts per nine innings and fourth in ground ball rate. As such, the Giants keep the ball away from their outfielder more than other teams, and the impact of Cabrera’s poor defense shouldn’t be seen as much as it would with a fly ball or contact-oriented staff.

The key player heading to Kansas City, Jonathan Sanchez, was a member of that vaunted 2009 Giants rotation and has a 3.07 ERA in a championship season to his name. As much as analytical types ignore ERA, such a performance will linger in the memories of fans for a long time, particularly those fans who reside west of the Rocky Mountains. Still, Sanchez has the highest walk rate in the majors, and as Dave Cameron points out, his surface production doesn’t hold up under deeper analysis.

The Giants will have to find a starter to replace Sanchez, but between Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong, the rotation should endure. The hitters are coming off an 83 wRC+ season, ranking between the Twins and the Mariners, constant sources of offensive offense last season. The Giants will need competent bats to get back to the postseason. It’s easy to read the name Melky Cabrera and laugh or shrug him off, but the performance he showed as a 26-year-old is more than enough to give San Francisco confidence he can be the first brick in the rebuilding of the Giants’ lineup.

Jonathan Sanchez isn't as good as his K%.

Spoiler [+]
From 2008 to 2011, Jonathan Sanchez has the fourth highest strikeout rate (24.1%) of any starting pitcher in baseball (500 IP minimum), ranking behind only Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, and Yovani Gallardo. Given this ability to consistently miss bats, Sanchez is often lauded as a pitcher with a lot of untapped potential. Pitchers who can post those kinds of strikeout rates are often quite successful, and if Sanchez could just refine the other parts of his game, he looks like he could turn into a dominant starting pitcher.

There’s just one problem – Sanchez isn’t even close to refining those other parts of his game, and we simply can’t ignore that he’s a massively flawed pitcher. Over the same time period (and again, 500 inning minimum), no starting pitcher has posted a worse walk rate than Sanchez’s 12.3% mark, and it’s not even all that close. The next worst mark is Gio Gonzalez, more than a full percentage point behind, and he is then followed closely by Barry Zito.

Sanchez’s high walk and high strikeout rates are the product of his propensity for pitching up in the strike zone, where contact is less frequent but so is the likelihood of getting a called strike. By pitching up in the zone, Sanchez is essentially choosing a strategy that increases the likelihood of deep counts, thus increasing both his walk and strikeout rates. Unlike some other high walk/high strikeout pitchers who simply need to improve their command of premium stuff, Sanchez is getting his whiffs through location, and if he began to throw more strikes, he’d likely see a significant drop in his strikeout rate as well.

Evaluating what Sanchez could be if he could just get his walks under control is a bit of a fantasy, and one that is not likely to come into being. Instead, we need to evaluate Sanchez for what he actually is, and that requires looking at the negative value of the walks in addition to the positive value of the strikeouts.

This pitch-to-no-contact strategy has essentially resulted in Sanchez being the poster boy for a league average starting pitcher. In just over 700 career innings, his career ERA- is 103, just slightly higher than his FIP/xFIP marks (both 100). These are basically identical to the league averages posted by starting pitchers over that time frame. On a per-inning basis, Sanchez has personified an average starting pitcher, but his high pitch counts and health problems have limited his innings totals, making him slightly below average when quantity is considered with quality of innings pitched.

Average (or slightly below average) pitchers certainly have value – guys like Jon Garland, Carl Pavano, Brett Myers, and Randy Wolf have all been given decent contracts as free agents over the past few winters based on similar-*%@ production, though each go about getting to their averageness in different ways. The going rate for this type of pitcher tends to be in the $8 million per year range and they’ve historically gotten 2-3 guaranteed years depending on prior health. Given Sanchez’s arm problems, he’d be on the low end of the durability spectrum, but he’d probably have been able to command a two year deal if he was a free agent.

Because he’s under team control for one more season, the Royals get to forego the risk of having to guarantee multiple years to acquire an average starting pitcher. However, since Sanchez is headed to arbitration with 5+ years of service time and made $4.8 million in salary last year, they’re probably not going to save much in annual average value compared to signing a comparable free agent. Sanchez is likely to get a salary for 2012 in the $6-$8 million range, not far from what similar pitchers will land in free agency.

There’s certainly some value in avoiding the multiple years needed to sign a free agent, so Sanchez is a positive asset, even though his salary is approaching something close to market value. The Royals also have more depth in the outfield than they do in the rotation, so it’s understandable why they would want to swap Melky Cabrera for Sanchez in order to better reallocate their resources.

That said, Kansas City should be realistic about what they’re getting in return for Cabrera – a guy who doesn’t have the kind of upside that might be suggested from a cursory look at his strikeout rate, and has essentially proven to be an average starting pitcher with durability questions throughout his career. He’ll make their rotation a bit better than it was before the deal, but he’s not the kind of “front line starter
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

I think he's terrible. I'm more afraid of the Royals bringing Bruce Chen back than them bringing in Sanchez.
Melky Cabrera isn't? 
laugh.gif
  Same Melky that got told to kick rocks by the Atlanta Braves.

This is an awful trade for the Giants, Melky didn't fare to well last time he was in the NL and now he is going to play in a pitchers park in a division full of great pitching and full of pitchers parks.

This has Brian Sabean written all over it.

His protege giving Juan Rivera $4.5 million,
30t6p3b.gif
, can't wait until this dude gets booted from Chavez Ravine.
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

I think he's terrible. I'm more afraid of the Royals bringing Bruce Chen back than them bringing in Sanchez.
Melky Cabrera isn't? 
laugh.gif
  Same Melky that got told to kick rocks by the Atlanta Braves.

This is an awful trade for the Giants, Melky didn't fare to well last time he was in the NL and now he is going to play in a pitchers park in a division full of great pitching and full of pitchers parks.

This has Brian Sabean written all over it.

His protege giving Juan Rivera $4.5 million,
30t6p3b.gif
, can't wait until this dude gets booted from Chavez Ravine.
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

I think he's terrible. I'm more afraid of the Royals bringing Bruce Chen back than them bringing in Sanchez.
Melky Cabrera isn't? 
laugh.gif
  Same Melky that got told to kick rocks by the Atlanta Braves.

This is an awful trade for the Giants, Melky didn't fare to well last time he was in the NL and now he is going to play in a pitchers park in a division full of great pitching and full of pitchers parks.

This has Brian Sabean written all over it.

His protege giving Juan Rivera $4.5 million,
30t6p3b.gif
, can't wait until this dude gets booted from Chavez Ravine.
 
Buyer's Guide: Outfield.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]Players in demand[/h3]
1. Carlos Beltran, RF: Beltran can't play center any more, and even if he's healthy, I'm not sure he'll be more than average in a corner. But he can still turn on a good fastball and has enough power to profile in left or even as a DH, getting on base at a high clip with 25-home run power in a neutral park. Unfortunately his baserunning acumen, among the best in the history of the game, is no longer a factor as he can't run like he once did.

2. Michael Cuddyer, RF: The outfield market is so thin that a bad defensive outfielder who might be better suited to platoon duty shows up as the second-best outfielder available in free agency. Cuddyer does have dead-pull power but struggled with better velocity in 2011, which might be a fluke and not age-related decline. He's playable but a liability in left field, and Cuddyer's bat doesn't really profile as an everyday player at first base or DH. Happy shopping!

3. Kelly Johnson, LF: I mentioned Johnson in the middle infield buyer's guide, as well; his bat looks better at second base, but his glove looks much better in the outfield. A reader pointed out that Johnson is a Type A free agent, and I doubt any club would give up a draft pick to sign him. That means he doesn't have a ton of leverage, and it's likely he will end up back in Toronto.
[h3]Players to avoid[/h3]
1. Raul Ibanez, LF: For the first two months of this contract, he looked like the bargain of the century. For the rest of his three-year deal Ibanez was exactly who we thought he was -- a bad defender who hits right-handers' mistakes and can't hit lefties at all.

2. Rick Ankiel, CF: I don't mean to pick on the guy, but he's another excellent example of how hard it is for pitchers to convert to position players -- and how significant those high strikeout rates in the minors were. The more he's played, the less he's hit. I do wonder if anyone will ask him if he would like another shot on the mound, though.

3. Ryan Ludwick, LF: His 2008 season has to go down as one of the all-time great fluke years -- he posted a .406 wOBA but hasn't gotten above .336 since. Ludwick is 33 now and a below-average defender in either corner. I'd offer him a minor league deal and a spring training invite -- there's almost no big leaguer who isn't worth at least that -- but not a roster spot.
[h3]Other free agents/trade targets[/h3]
1. Grady Sizemore, OF: Sizemore became a free agent when the Cleveland Indians turned down his $9 million option last month. He has become a popular name among readers as an upside play, with good reason -- before injuries derailed his career he was a top-5 player in the American League, and you'd like to think that enough of the offense he brought to the table has survived the layoffs to make him a 3-4 win player if he stays on the field. The flip side is that his injuries make him extremely unlikely to be able to play center, and even in left he'll probably need time off or days at DH to keep him healthy. He's high-reward, but also high-risk.

2. Angel Pagan, CF, New York Mets: Pagan is a defensive specialist who could be non-tendered or (more likely) traded this offseason as increased playing time has exposed his weakness as a hitter. But defensive metrics all rate him comfortably above-average in center during his career, and it's a position of need for many clubs; if he's non-tendered, he's an ideal fourth outfielder who could handle center for a few weeks in case of an injury.

3. Carlos Quentin, LF, Chicago White Sox: The Sox have indicated that they want to build around their kids -- whether they have enough kids to build so much as a pillow fort is another matter -- which would seem to put the 29-year-old Quentin, one year from free agency, on the trade bubble. He's a poor defensive outfielder with above-average raw power and a decent idea of the strike zone, but a career .253 average in more than 2,400 plate appearances. As a DH option for a single year, perhaps a contract push for him, he'd be very attractive.
4. Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish, OF, Boston Red Sox: If healthy, Kalish should be Boston's primary right fielder in 2012, with Reddick an extra outfielder who could be packaged in a larger trade and might be a cheap option for a few years for someone else in left or right. Reddick has bat speed and should grow into 20-homer power, but his pitch recognition has been a chronic problem for him for years; playing regularly after the All-Star break, he hit just .244/.293/.389.

Blue Jays should trade for Andrew Bailey.

Spoiler [+]
The Toronto Blue Jays were tied for third in blown saves in 2011 with 25, and in the still of the offseason, club officials will inevitably play the what-if game (and you can't blame them).

What if Toronto's relievers had been just mildly more efficient and had not blown just six leads? Well, rather than finishing the year at 81-81, Toronto would have been within a stone's throw of the wild card. The Jays might've been part of some three-team mix at the end, with the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox.

It stands to reason that in 2012, when the Blue Jays may seemingly take a long stride forward toward contending for their first playoff appearance since 1993, a shutdown closer could make an enormous difference for Toronto. The word is that the Blue Jays are aggressively seeking an experienced closer, either through the free-agent market or in the trade market -- someone who will reward Toronto's developing starting pitchers for their efforts.

Among the names that have come up in their conversations: Heath Bell; Jonathan Papelbon (if the Jays landed him, they would theoretically be weakening one of the teams they are chasing); Joe Nathan, who threw the ball very well down the stretch as he got further removed from his elbow surgery; and Andrew Bailey, for whom the Blue Jays would have to trade.

If the Blue Jays signed a closer, they would not have to surrender talent in a deal; they would have to pay a premium in salary and perhaps a draft pick. If they traded for Bailey, the Blue Jays would have to give up prospects, but they would control the reliever through the 2014 season -- and colleagues say that Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos places a very high value on player control. Trading Bailey now would make sense for the Oakland Athletics because they continue to rot in a baseball twilight zone while waiting to see if they can get approval for a San Jose ballpark. The A's are probably not going to contend in 2012 and may want to take advantage of Bailey's value now before he becomes more expensive through arbitration.

No matter how the Blue Jays fill the closer's role, they are intent on getting somebody who can control the ninth inning a lot better in 2011.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Minnesota Twins managed to execute the nicest firing in the history of baseball as they relieved Bill Smith of his GM duties. The club's press release made reference to the desire to have Smith stay with the organization and mentioned Smith's family. Smith is very well-liked and respected within the organization.

This was business, not personal; the Twins decided it was not working with Smith, and by all accounts, Terry Ryan is returning to be a Minnesota version of Jack McKeon, keeping the GM's seat warm until somebody else is found to step in. Rather, Ryan has come back to the Twins burning to make the situation better.

It's possible that Michael Cuddyer's situation inflamed the discussion about how the Twins had gotten away from a strong internal culture -- for which Cuddyer has been viewed as a keeper of the flame. The fact that Cuddyer may be ready to leave the Twins, amid concern over a drift of priorities, caught the attention of some decision-makers within the team's hierarchy.

Ryan returns to the GM post at a very difficult stage for the Twins. There isn't a lot they can do other than wait for Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to get healthy, because so much payroll is locked into those two players. But for some in the organization, Ryan's emergence provides a boost of morale as the Twins move ahead.

Ryan said he doesn't know if this will be for one year or 10 years. The Pohlads saw big issues at play, writes Patrick Reusse. The Twins are Terry Ryan's team, writes Jim Souhan. The Twins made the right move, writes Tom Powers.

• The Baltimore Orioles' GM search veered like a Mariano Rivera cutter, evolving from a search for the best possible candidate to a search for qualified folks who actually wanted the job. Last Wednesday morning, Dan Duquette was another name on a long list of ex-general managers who had called the Orioles, and by late Friday afternoon, he all but had the job.

Among friends and former colleagues, Duquette's acumen is highly regarded. Kevin Malone worked for Duquette with the Montreal Expos, and he sent along these thoughts:
  • "The Orioles made an excellent decision in hiring Dan Duquette -- a talented, proven and experienced GM that knows how to build winning and successful ML teams and organizations. His experiences include a very strong scouting and player development background. In the early '90s Dan built the Montreal Expos into one of the ML's best organizations through his emphasis on the farm system and key trades. Due to Dan's efforts, the 1994 Expos team was arguably the best in all of baseball. From 1994 through 2002 Dan rebuilt the Red Sox into one of the game's best teams and organizations.
  • "Dan complements manager Buck Showalter extremely well. Both are very intelligent and skilled, and have exceptional baseball instincts and a feel for the game. Both men are extremely hard workers, committed to excellence and passionate about winning. Buck and Dan are true baseball men that have experienced success, know how to evaluate talent and know what it takes to win. Each understands the value and importance of talent acquisition through scouting and player development. These two will partner well as a united front; one on the field and the other in the O's front office.
  • "The Orioles need an infusion of young talent and Dan's history of success in this area will provide the much needed results. His understanding of the importance of international players and well as the needed relationships to sign such players from the Pacific Rim and Latin America will be a major help. As the GM in Boston, Dan helped overhaul and rebuild the Red Sox into a serious international scouting threat. Dan is a proven team builder."
Duquette is ready to rejoin the fraternity, writes Dan Connolly.

• The conversations between the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants about a possible Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera swap started five weeks ago, Kansas City GM Dayton Moore recalled in a phone conversation Monday. The Royals know their window for contending is about to open, with the emergence of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and the organization's other top prospects. But the starting pitching is a concern, and Moore has been intent on improving it for 2012.

As Moore has looked around, these parameters have been in play:

1. Spending big dollars on free agents is something that the Royals are convinced is probably not a good idea. The Gil Meche deal simply did not work out.

2. Moore has no intention of trading the high-end position prospects -- Hosmer, Moustakas, Wil Myers, etc. Moore was interested in Jair Jurrjens, but the Atlanta Braves are marketing him as a No. 1-type ace and wanted a big-time return -- Myers, in particular. In order to meet the Rays' asking price for James Shields -- which seems to be market value plus 30 percent, because Tampa Bay is not at all motivated to move Shields -- Moore would have to package at least two high-end prospects, which is something he won't do. (And within a couple of years, Shields would probably be too expensive for the Royals, anyway.)

By trading Cabrera for Sanchez, Moore deals someone who is probably not part of the team's long-term future for Sanchez, who has a chance to be good. "He has shown that on any given day, he can shut down any lineup," Moore said.

In adding Sanchez, Moore is looking to thread the needle, improving his rotation without paying an exorbitant cost. The Royals were concerned, too, about making sure that they give Lorenzo Cain -- who came to them in the Zack Greinke trade -- a chance to play daily and establish himself in center field.

Cain will step in, as Bob Dutton writes. This is the right move for the moment for the Royals, writes Sam Mellinger.

The acquisition of Cabrera means that Andres Torres could be the odd man out for the Giants, writes Henry Schulman. Andrew Baggarly has some thoughts about Cabrera's career year.

• One of the most important issues being negotiated in the collective bargaining talks these days is about the Type A designation for free agents. Initially, the draft-pick compensation was set up three decades ago to deter George Steinbrenner from signing all the top free agents. Then, over time, teams used the offer of arbitration to free agents -- which comes along with the draft-pick compensation attached -- as a way to extend the window to negotiate in the offseason.

But during the last four or five years, teams have placed a higher value on draft picks. And so the players deemed Type A free agents have seen their market value plummet when their old teams have offered arbitration, because some teams don't like to surrender draft picks when signing a player. Most notably, Juan Cruz was a Type A free agent a few years ago, and he basically was getting no offers because nobody wanted to give up a draft pick to sign him (until Major League Baseball and the union worked on a compromise on his behalf).

The union and management seem focused on two possible solutions for the Type A quandary:

1. Rather than asking teams to surrender a top pick, the team that loses a Type A free agent will merely be granted a draft pick in the supplement round.

2. A guarantee of a high-end salary for any Type A free agent who is offered arbitration, along the lines of the system used in the NFL. For example: If the San Diego Padres offered arbitration to Heath Bell, San Diego would be obligated to pay Bell a salary comparable to the highest-echelon relievers in the game. This would prevent players from being abused in the Type A situation -- such as last winter, when Grant Balfour was deemed a Type A free agent and saw his market disintegrate. The Rays would never have offered Balfour arbitration had they known that they would have to pay him like one of the highest relievers in the sport.

One of the unresolved questions is whether the Type A adjustments will be made for the 2012 season or for 2013. But there continues to be optimism, in general, that a new labor agreement will be finished sometime in the next two weeks.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. So much for the assertion that Hanley Ramirez will continue to be the Florida Marlins' shortstop -- the team is in pursuit of Jose Reyes, as Clark Spencer writes, and presumably will move Ramirez to third if they are successful. You'd have to install the Marlins as a heavy favorite in this bidding, because Florida has money to spend and Reyes fits perfectly into the style favored by new manager Ozzie Guillen. There had been discussion in the organization for months that Ramirez had gotten too big to be an effective shortstop, and that he should be moved to third.

2. The Marlins are among the teams interested in Yoenis Cespedes; they will make a strong bid, writes Juan Rodriguez.

3. The Colorado Rockies are looking at deals for pitching, as Troy Renck writes, and they have had some internal conversation about second baseman Aaron Hill.

4. Jamey Carroll has his eye on the Detroit Tigers.

5. The St. Louis Cardinals hope to have a manager by next week, writes Derrick Goold.

6. Mike Maddux won't talk with the Red Sox. It's hard to say what this means in the Red Sox managerial search, writes John Tomase.

7. The Chicago Cubs expect to address the Carlos Zambrano situation this week, sources say. Here's the thing: Zambrano has a full no-trade clause and therefore has the power to force himself into free agency -- because if he just said no to every trade proposal that the Cubs bring to him, he would leave Theo Epstein with the choice of either keeping Zambrano or releasing him. So presumably, the Cubs will work with some guidance from Zambrano on where he wants to go.

Producing on the cheap.

Spoiler [+]
ESPN Insider has spent a lot of time talking about the top free agents, such as Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols. However, there are only so many big-name stars to go around and only so much money available to pay them and most teams will not bring their fans such a lucrative holiday gift.

While the stars will always get the attention, and deservedly so, many bargain free agents play just as big a role in their new teams as the brand names. Sure, Adrian Beltre performed as advertised and was a key part of the Rangers, but players as varied as Ryan Roberts, Casey Kotchman, John Axford and Joel Peralta, all picked up cheaply, were key performers on their respective playoff teams.

As such, we've identified 10 players, none likely to command a bidding war, but with the ability to contribute above and beyond their 2011 salaries. For each player, their 2012 ZiPS projections for a neutral park/league are given.

Josh Willingham, LF: .249/.350/.467, 22 HR, 70 RBIs, 2.3 WAR
One of the few performing players on the Oakland A's, with 98 RBIs on a team that had only one other player above 60. However, Willingham's age and defensive ability preclude anyone signing him to a long-term deal. The Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox are two teams that missed the playoffs that could've used the extra bat -- if Atlanta had Willingham in 2011, the Braves likely hold off the Cardinals and make the playoffs. Willingham's best fit is on a team with a solid defensive center fielder that needs some quick offense.

Kelly Johnson, 2B: .244/.326/.424, 18 HR, 56 RBIs, 2.8 WAR
The last time Johnson had a bad year, the Arizona Diamondbacks swooped in, and got Johnson's .284/.370/.496 line for a measly $2.3 million. Johnson had another poor season in 2011, though not quite as poor as the .222 batting average indicates. Johnson still hits for power, plays an adequate second, and even steals a base or two. Even if he doesn't repeat his 2010 season, he doesn't need to in order to be a bargain.

Clint Barmes, SS/2B: .245/.302/.375, 11 HR, 50 RBIs, 2.6 WAR
Barmes had a pretty good comeback season in 2011 that mostly went unnoticed by virtue of playing for the Houston Astros, a team that was out of the race before the end of April. He's not a big bat, but he's above replacement level and ought to be in the Gold Glove conversation at either second or short. For a team like the Milwaukee Brewers that was plagued with terrible defense at short, Barmes may be a good, inexpensive signing that allows money to be used elsewhere. A WAR of 2.6 typically costs $8-12 million on the free-agent market and Barmes probably won't make half of that in 2012.

David DeJesus, OF: .264/.333/.407, 10 HR, 52 RBIs, 2.1 WAR
DeJesus fell short of expectations in Oakland, but he wouldn't be the first solid hitter to have his offense sapped by the spacious Coliseum. DeJesus is a solid defensive outfielder who can play all three positions and is still just a year removed from being a three-win player in Kansas City. At 32 years old next month, DeJesus isn't so over the hill that you can be confident that he's toast, and for a few million is a solid pickup for a team with outfield issues.

Andruw Jones, OF: .235/.339/.448, 12 HR, 35 RBIs, 0.9 WAR
It's kind of weird to see Jones here after his last contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which was the completely opposite of a bargain. But at this point he doesn't command much money and he's successfully reinvented himself as a role player with big power. As long as you mainly use him to beat up southpaws and don't fall into the trap of thinking he should ever be in center field again, Jones can still push a team toward a pennant. Most likely, Jones is heading to an AL team.

Jerry Hairston Jr., UT: .257/.319/.374, 7 HR, 37 RBIs, 1.0 WAR
No, Hairston's not a regular, but while there are a lot of utility guys who can cover every non-catcher position on the field, there are very few who can hit adequately while doing it. WAR doesn't adequately reflect Hairston's value to the team, as his flexibility was a godsend to the Brewers last season. Given an older team with injury questions, bringing Hairston in for a couple of million could alleviate a lot of worries. Hairston may only be a poor man's Tony Phillips, but Phillips was quite good.

Paul Maholm, LHP: 10-9, 4.33 ERA, 162 IP, 1.6 WAR
Quality starting pitching is scarce this winter, and Maholm is a terrific fit in the right situation. At 6-14 and 9-15 the last two years, he's not likely to get a flurry of high-profile bidding and there are a lot of teams out there that can use a hurler that can eat innings without causing a nasty case of indigestion. Maholm's 5.10 ERA in 2010 sticks out like a sore thumb, but a lot of that was due to a pretty disappointing Pirates defense that year: Maholm's FIP has been between 3.78 and 4.15 over the last four years, so he's actually been a consistently league-average pitcher.

Erik Bedard, LHP: 5-3, 3.84 ERA, 77 1/3 IP, 1.6 WAR
While it would be a mistake to actually count on Bedard to be a consistently healthy part of your rotation in 2012, he remains a pitcher with intriguing upside and his 24 starts in 2011 was the most he's managed since 2007. For a couple of million a year, it's generally a good idea, unless you're one of the best teams in the league, to go take a chance on upside over reliable mediocrity.

Frank Francisco, RHP: 4-2, 3.70 ERA, 48 2/3 IP, 1.2 WAR
A disappointing season amplified by the knowledge that he was traded for Mike Napoli, Francisco still struck out a batter an inning for the Toronto Blue Jays and still hits the mid-90s on the radar gun. A step above the Kevin Greggs and Fernando Rodneys who have been overpaid in recent years thanks to save totals, Francisco is likely to go overlooked with pitchers like Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Madson, and Francisco Rodriguez on the market.

George Sherrill, LHP: 2-1, 3.57, 40.1 IP, 1.0 WAR
Sherrill bombed with the Dodgers in 2010, but he quietly had a solid season in the Atlanta Braves' bullpen behind the much more exciting Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters. Even when Sherrill has a bad year, he still gets lefties out (they hit .192/.286/.288 against him in 2010), and the Giants just gave Javier Lopez, a pitcher with a similar profile, a two-year, $8.5 million deal. Sherrill will cost a lot less than that.

San Francisco Giants top 15 prospects.

Spoiler [+]
The Giants organization under General Manager Brian Sabean is known for fielding veteran big league ball clubs, with the occasional influx of high-level talent like catcher Buster Posey and pitcher Madison Bumgarner. The club went all-in in 2011 with the trade of top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets for aging outfielder Carlos Beltran. Sadly, the team did not even make the playoffs and will now have to watch New York develop a killer 1-2 punch at the top of its starting rotation with Wheeler and Matt Harvey.

The organization played it relatively “safe
 
Buyer's Guide: Outfield.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]Players in demand[/h3]
1. Carlos Beltran, RF: Beltran can't play center any more, and even if he's healthy, I'm not sure he'll be more than average in a corner. But he can still turn on a good fastball and has enough power to profile in left or even as a DH, getting on base at a high clip with 25-home run power in a neutral park. Unfortunately his baserunning acumen, among the best in the history of the game, is no longer a factor as he can't run like he once did.

2. Michael Cuddyer, RF: The outfield market is so thin that a bad defensive outfielder who might be better suited to platoon duty shows up as the second-best outfielder available in free agency. Cuddyer does have dead-pull power but struggled with better velocity in 2011, which might be a fluke and not age-related decline. He's playable but a liability in left field, and Cuddyer's bat doesn't really profile as an everyday player at first base or DH. Happy shopping!

3. Kelly Johnson, LF: I mentioned Johnson in the middle infield buyer's guide, as well; his bat looks better at second base, but his glove looks much better in the outfield. A reader pointed out that Johnson is a Type A free agent, and I doubt any club would give up a draft pick to sign him. That means he doesn't have a ton of leverage, and it's likely he will end up back in Toronto.
[h3]Players to avoid[/h3]
1. Raul Ibanez, LF: For the first two months of this contract, he looked like the bargain of the century. For the rest of his three-year deal Ibanez was exactly who we thought he was -- a bad defender who hits right-handers' mistakes and can't hit lefties at all.

2. Rick Ankiel, CF: I don't mean to pick on the guy, but he's another excellent example of how hard it is for pitchers to convert to position players -- and how significant those high strikeout rates in the minors were. The more he's played, the less he's hit. I do wonder if anyone will ask him if he would like another shot on the mound, though.

3. Ryan Ludwick, LF: His 2008 season has to go down as one of the all-time great fluke years -- he posted a .406 wOBA but hasn't gotten above .336 since. Ludwick is 33 now and a below-average defender in either corner. I'd offer him a minor league deal and a spring training invite -- there's almost no big leaguer who isn't worth at least that -- but not a roster spot.
[h3]Other free agents/trade targets[/h3]
1. Grady Sizemore, OF: Sizemore became a free agent when the Cleveland Indians turned down his $9 million option last month. He has become a popular name among readers as an upside play, with good reason -- before injuries derailed his career he was a top-5 player in the American League, and you'd like to think that enough of the offense he brought to the table has survived the layoffs to make him a 3-4 win player if he stays on the field. The flip side is that his injuries make him extremely unlikely to be able to play center, and even in left he'll probably need time off or days at DH to keep him healthy. He's high-reward, but also high-risk.

2. Angel Pagan, CF, New York Mets: Pagan is a defensive specialist who could be non-tendered or (more likely) traded this offseason as increased playing time has exposed his weakness as a hitter. But defensive metrics all rate him comfortably above-average in center during his career, and it's a position of need for many clubs; if he's non-tendered, he's an ideal fourth outfielder who could handle center for a few weeks in case of an injury.

3. Carlos Quentin, LF, Chicago White Sox: The Sox have indicated that they want to build around their kids -- whether they have enough kids to build so much as a pillow fort is another matter -- which would seem to put the 29-year-old Quentin, one year from free agency, on the trade bubble. He's a poor defensive outfielder with above-average raw power and a decent idea of the strike zone, but a career .253 average in more than 2,400 plate appearances. As a DH option for a single year, perhaps a contract push for him, he'd be very attractive.
4. Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish, OF, Boston Red Sox: If healthy, Kalish should be Boston's primary right fielder in 2012, with Reddick an extra outfielder who could be packaged in a larger trade and might be a cheap option for a few years for someone else in left or right. Reddick has bat speed and should grow into 20-homer power, but his pitch recognition has been a chronic problem for him for years; playing regularly after the All-Star break, he hit just .244/.293/.389.

Blue Jays should trade for Andrew Bailey.

Spoiler [+]
The Toronto Blue Jays were tied for third in blown saves in 2011 with 25, and in the still of the offseason, club officials will inevitably play the what-if game (and you can't blame them).

What if Toronto's relievers had been just mildly more efficient and had not blown just six leads? Well, rather than finishing the year at 81-81, Toronto would have been within a stone's throw of the wild card. The Jays might've been part of some three-team mix at the end, with the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox.

It stands to reason that in 2012, when the Blue Jays may seemingly take a long stride forward toward contending for their first playoff appearance since 1993, a shutdown closer could make an enormous difference for Toronto. The word is that the Blue Jays are aggressively seeking an experienced closer, either through the free-agent market or in the trade market -- someone who will reward Toronto's developing starting pitchers for their efforts.

Among the names that have come up in their conversations: Heath Bell; Jonathan Papelbon (if the Jays landed him, they would theoretically be weakening one of the teams they are chasing); Joe Nathan, who threw the ball very well down the stretch as he got further removed from his elbow surgery; and Andrew Bailey, for whom the Blue Jays would have to trade.

If the Blue Jays signed a closer, they would not have to surrender talent in a deal; they would have to pay a premium in salary and perhaps a draft pick. If they traded for Bailey, the Blue Jays would have to give up prospects, but they would control the reliever through the 2014 season -- and colleagues say that Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos places a very high value on player control. Trading Bailey now would make sense for the Oakland Athletics because they continue to rot in a baseball twilight zone while waiting to see if they can get approval for a San Jose ballpark. The A's are probably not going to contend in 2012 and may want to take advantage of Bailey's value now before he becomes more expensive through arbitration.

No matter how the Blue Jays fill the closer's role, they are intent on getting somebody who can control the ninth inning a lot better in 2011.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Minnesota Twins managed to execute the nicest firing in the history of baseball as they relieved Bill Smith of his GM duties. The club's press release made reference to the desire to have Smith stay with the organization and mentioned Smith's family. Smith is very well-liked and respected within the organization.

This was business, not personal; the Twins decided it was not working with Smith, and by all accounts, Terry Ryan is returning to be a Minnesota version of Jack McKeon, keeping the GM's seat warm until somebody else is found to step in. Rather, Ryan has come back to the Twins burning to make the situation better.

It's possible that Michael Cuddyer's situation inflamed the discussion about how the Twins had gotten away from a strong internal culture -- for which Cuddyer has been viewed as a keeper of the flame. The fact that Cuddyer may be ready to leave the Twins, amid concern over a drift of priorities, caught the attention of some decision-makers within the team's hierarchy.

Ryan returns to the GM post at a very difficult stage for the Twins. There isn't a lot they can do other than wait for Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to get healthy, because so much payroll is locked into those two players. But for some in the organization, Ryan's emergence provides a boost of morale as the Twins move ahead.

Ryan said he doesn't know if this will be for one year or 10 years. The Pohlads saw big issues at play, writes Patrick Reusse. The Twins are Terry Ryan's team, writes Jim Souhan. The Twins made the right move, writes Tom Powers.

• The Baltimore Orioles' GM search veered like a Mariano Rivera cutter, evolving from a search for the best possible candidate to a search for qualified folks who actually wanted the job. Last Wednesday morning, Dan Duquette was another name on a long list of ex-general managers who had called the Orioles, and by late Friday afternoon, he all but had the job.

Among friends and former colleagues, Duquette's acumen is highly regarded. Kevin Malone worked for Duquette with the Montreal Expos, and he sent along these thoughts:
  • "The Orioles made an excellent decision in hiring Dan Duquette -- a talented, proven and experienced GM that knows how to build winning and successful ML teams and organizations. His experiences include a very strong scouting and player development background. In the early '90s Dan built the Montreal Expos into one of the ML's best organizations through his emphasis on the farm system and key trades. Due to Dan's efforts, the 1994 Expos team was arguably the best in all of baseball. From 1994 through 2002 Dan rebuilt the Red Sox into one of the game's best teams and organizations.
  • "Dan complements manager Buck Showalter extremely well. Both are very intelligent and skilled, and have exceptional baseball instincts and a feel for the game. Both men are extremely hard workers, committed to excellence and passionate about winning. Buck and Dan are true baseball men that have experienced success, know how to evaluate talent and know what it takes to win. Each understands the value and importance of talent acquisition through scouting and player development. These two will partner well as a united front; one on the field and the other in the O's front office.
  • "The Orioles need an infusion of young talent and Dan's history of success in this area will provide the much needed results. His understanding of the importance of international players and well as the needed relationships to sign such players from the Pacific Rim and Latin America will be a major help. As the GM in Boston, Dan helped overhaul and rebuild the Red Sox into a serious international scouting threat. Dan is a proven team builder."
Duquette is ready to rejoin the fraternity, writes Dan Connolly.

• The conversations between the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants about a possible Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera swap started five weeks ago, Kansas City GM Dayton Moore recalled in a phone conversation Monday. The Royals know their window for contending is about to open, with the emergence of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and the organization's other top prospects. But the starting pitching is a concern, and Moore has been intent on improving it for 2012.

As Moore has looked around, these parameters have been in play:

1. Spending big dollars on free agents is something that the Royals are convinced is probably not a good idea. The Gil Meche deal simply did not work out.

2. Moore has no intention of trading the high-end position prospects -- Hosmer, Moustakas, Wil Myers, etc. Moore was interested in Jair Jurrjens, but the Atlanta Braves are marketing him as a No. 1-type ace and wanted a big-time return -- Myers, in particular. In order to meet the Rays' asking price for James Shields -- which seems to be market value plus 30 percent, because Tampa Bay is not at all motivated to move Shields -- Moore would have to package at least two high-end prospects, which is something he won't do. (And within a couple of years, Shields would probably be too expensive for the Royals, anyway.)

By trading Cabrera for Sanchez, Moore deals someone who is probably not part of the team's long-term future for Sanchez, who has a chance to be good. "He has shown that on any given day, he can shut down any lineup," Moore said.

In adding Sanchez, Moore is looking to thread the needle, improving his rotation without paying an exorbitant cost. The Royals were concerned, too, about making sure that they give Lorenzo Cain -- who came to them in the Zack Greinke trade -- a chance to play daily and establish himself in center field.

Cain will step in, as Bob Dutton writes. This is the right move for the moment for the Royals, writes Sam Mellinger.

The acquisition of Cabrera means that Andres Torres could be the odd man out for the Giants, writes Henry Schulman. Andrew Baggarly has some thoughts about Cabrera's career year.

• One of the most important issues being negotiated in the collective bargaining talks these days is about the Type A designation for free agents. Initially, the draft-pick compensation was set up three decades ago to deter George Steinbrenner from signing all the top free agents. Then, over time, teams used the offer of arbitration to free agents -- which comes along with the draft-pick compensation attached -- as a way to extend the window to negotiate in the offseason.

But during the last four or five years, teams have placed a higher value on draft picks. And so the players deemed Type A free agents have seen their market value plummet when their old teams have offered arbitration, because some teams don't like to surrender draft picks when signing a player. Most notably, Juan Cruz was a Type A free agent a few years ago, and he basically was getting no offers because nobody wanted to give up a draft pick to sign him (until Major League Baseball and the union worked on a compromise on his behalf).

The union and management seem focused on two possible solutions for the Type A quandary:

1. Rather than asking teams to surrender a top pick, the team that loses a Type A free agent will merely be granted a draft pick in the supplement round.

2. A guarantee of a high-end salary for any Type A free agent who is offered arbitration, along the lines of the system used in the NFL. For example: If the San Diego Padres offered arbitration to Heath Bell, San Diego would be obligated to pay Bell a salary comparable to the highest-echelon relievers in the game. This would prevent players from being abused in the Type A situation -- such as last winter, when Grant Balfour was deemed a Type A free agent and saw his market disintegrate. The Rays would never have offered Balfour arbitration had they known that they would have to pay him like one of the highest relievers in the sport.

One of the unresolved questions is whether the Type A adjustments will be made for the 2012 season or for 2013. But there continues to be optimism, in general, that a new labor agreement will be finished sometime in the next two weeks.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. So much for the assertion that Hanley Ramirez will continue to be the Florida Marlins' shortstop -- the team is in pursuit of Jose Reyes, as Clark Spencer writes, and presumably will move Ramirez to third if they are successful. You'd have to install the Marlins as a heavy favorite in this bidding, because Florida has money to spend and Reyes fits perfectly into the style favored by new manager Ozzie Guillen. There had been discussion in the organization for months that Ramirez had gotten too big to be an effective shortstop, and that he should be moved to third.

2. The Marlins are among the teams interested in Yoenis Cespedes; they will make a strong bid, writes Juan Rodriguez.

3. The Colorado Rockies are looking at deals for pitching, as Troy Renck writes, and they have had some internal conversation about second baseman Aaron Hill.

4. Jamey Carroll has his eye on the Detroit Tigers.

5. The St. Louis Cardinals hope to have a manager by next week, writes Derrick Goold.

6. Mike Maddux won't talk with the Red Sox. It's hard to say what this means in the Red Sox managerial search, writes John Tomase.

7. The Chicago Cubs expect to address the Carlos Zambrano situation this week, sources say. Here's the thing: Zambrano has a full no-trade clause and therefore has the power to force himself into free agency -- because if he just said no to every trade proposal that the Cubs bring to him, he would leave Theo Epstein with the choice of either keeping Zambrano or releasing him. So presumably, the Cubs will work with some guidance from Zambrano on where he wants to go.

Producing on the cheap.

Spoiler [+]
ESPN Insider has spent a lot of time talking about the top free agents, such as Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols. However, there are only so many big-name stars to go around and only so much money available to pay them and most teams will not bring their fans such a lucrative holiday gift.

While the stars will always get the attention, and deservedly so, many bargain free agents play just as big a role in their new teams as the brand names. Sure, Adrian Beltre performed as advertised and was a key part of the Rangers, but players as varied as Ryan Roberts, Casey Kotchman, John Axford and Joel Peralta, all picked up cheaply, were key performers on their respective playoff teams.

As such, we've identified 10 players, none likely to command a bidding war, but with the ability to contribute above and beyond their 2011 salaries. For each player, their 2012 ZiPS projections for a neutral park/league are given.

Josh Willingham, LF: .249/.350/.467, 22 HR, 70 RBIs, 2.3 WAR
One of the few performing players on the Oakland A's, with 98 RBIs on a team that had only one other player above 60. However, Willingham's age and defensive ability preclude anyone signing him to a long-term deal. The Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox are two teams that missed the playoffs that could've used the extra bat -- if Atlanta had Willingham in 2011, the Braves likely hold off the Cardinals and make the playoffs. Willingham's best fit is on a team with a solid defensive center fielder that needs some quick offense.

Kelly Johnson, 2B: .244/.326/.424, 18 HR, 56 RBIs, 2.8 WAR
The last time Johnson had a bad year, the Arizona Diamondbacks swooped in, and got Johnson's .284/.370/.496 line for a measly $2.3 million. Johnson had another poor season in 2011, though not quite as poor as the .222 batting average indicates. Johnson still hits for power, plays an adequate second, and even steals a base or two. Even if he doesn't repeat his 2010 season, he doesn't need to in order to be a bargain.

Clint Barmes, SS/2B: .245/.302/.375, 11 HR, 50 RBIs, 2.6 WAR
Barmes had a pretty good comeback season in 2011 that mostly went unnoticed by virtue of playing for the Houston Astros, a team that was out of the race before the end of April. He's not a big bat, but he's above replacement level and ought to be in the Gold Glove conversation at either second or short. For a team like the Milwaukee Brewers that was plagued with terrible defense at short, Barmes may be a good, inexpensive signing that allows money to be used elsewhere. A WAR of 2.6 typically costs $8-12 million on the free-agent market and Barmes probably won't make half of that in 2012.

David DeJesus, OF: .264/.333/.407, 10 HR, 52 RBIs, 2.1 WAR
DeJesus fell short of expectations in Oakland, but he wouldn't be the first solid hitter to have his offense sapped by the spacious Coliseum. DeJesus is a solid defensive outfielder who can play all three positions and is still just a year removed from being a three-win player in Kansas City. At 32 years old next month, DeJesus isn't so over the hill that you can be confident that he's toast, and for a few million is a solid pickup for a team with outfield issues.

Andruw Jones, OF: .235/.339/.448, 12 HR, 35 RBIs, 0.9 WAR
It's kind of weird to see Jones here after his last contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which was the completely opposite of a bargain. But at this point he doesn't command much money and he's successfully reinvented himself as a role player with big power. As long as you mainly use him to beat up southpaws and don't fall into the trap of thinking he should ever be in center field again, Jones can still push a team toward a pennant. Most likely, Jones is heading to an AL team.

Jerry Hairston Jr., UT: .257/.319/.374, 7 HR, 37 RBIs, 1.0 WAR
No, Hairston's not a regular, but while there are a lot of utility guys who can cover every non-catcher position on the field, there are very few who can hit adequately while doing it. WAR doesn't adequately reflect Hairston's value to the team, as his flexibility was a godsend to the Brewers last season. Given an older team with injury questions, bringing Hairston in for a couple of million could alleviate a lot of worries. Hairston may only be a poor man's Tony Phillips, but Phillips was quite good.

Paul Maholm, LHP: 10-9, 4.33 ERA, 162 IP, 1.6 WAR
Quality starting pitching is scarce this winter, and Maholm is a terrific fit in the right situation. At 6-14 and 9-15 the last two years, he's not likely to get a flurry of high-profile bidding and there are a lot of teams out there that can use a hurler that can eat innings without causing a nasty case of indigestion. Maholm's 5.10 ERA in 2010 sticks out like a sore thumb, but a lot of that was due to a pretty disappointing Pirates defense that year: Maholm's FIP has been between 3.78 and 4.15 over the last four years, so he's actually been a consistently league-average pitcher.

Erik Bedard, LHP: 5-3, 3.84 ERA, 77 1/3 IP, 1.6 WAR
While it would be a mistake to actually count on Bedard to be a consistently healthy part of your rotation in 2012, he remains a pitcher with intriguing upside and his 24 starts in 2011 was the most he's managed since 2007. For a couple of million a year, it's generally a good idea, unless you're one of the best teams in the league, to go take a chance on upside over reliable mediocrity.

Frank Francisco, RHP: 4-2, 3.70 ERA, 48 2/3 IP, 1.2 WAR
A disappointing season amplified by the knowledge that he was traded for Mike Napoli, Francisco still struck out a batter an inning for the Toronto Blue Jays and still hits the mid-90s on the radar gun. A step above the Kevin Greggs and Fernando Rodneys who have been overpaid in recent years thanks to save totals, Francisco is likely to go overlooked with pitchers like Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Madson, and Francisco Rodriguez on the market.

George Sherrill, LHP: 2-1, 3.57, 40.1 IP, 1.0 WAR
Sherrill bombed with the Dodgers in 2010, but he quietly had a solid season in the Atlanta Braves' bullpen behind the much more exciting Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters. Even when Sherrill has a bad year, he still gets lefties out (they hit .192/.286/.288 against him in 2010), and the Giants just gave Javier Lopez, a pitcher with a similar profile, a two-year, $8.5 million deal. Sherrill will cost a lot less than that.

San Francisco Giants top 15 prospects.

Spoiler [+]
The Giants organization under General Manager Brian Sabean is known for fielding veteran big league ball clubs, with the occasional influx of high-level talent like catcher Buster Posey and pitcher Madison Bumgarner. The club went all-in in 2011 with the trade of top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets for aging outfielder Carlos Beltran. Sadly, the team did not even make the playoffs and will now have to watch New York develop a killer 1-2 punch at the top of its starting rotation with Wheeler and Matt Harvey.

The organization played it relatively “safe
 
Buyer's Guide: Third Basemen.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]Players in demand[/h3]
1. Aramis Ramirez: I have exactly one true third baseman in my top 50 free agents, and he's not even a good defender. He's a dead-pull hitter who still has the strength to put up solid home run totals, but I don't like his chances to age well, and the patience he used to bring to the table is mostly gone. He'll be productive as long as his bat speed holds up, but his new employers will either have to live with below-average defense at third or contemplate moving him to first or to DH.

2. Wilson Betemit: A lousy defender at third, Betemit can hit enough to handle the position but is better deployed as a backup/utility infielder on a team that has at least a solid-average glove man at third to play ahead of him. He's only 30 this year, has power and has an idea at the plate -- pitchers can't just beat him by throwing him breaking balls, for example -- and he's a good enough hitter from the left side to be worth a roster spot. But even listing him here on the third-base page is generous.

And that's it for worthwhile free agent third basemen.
[h3]Names to avoid[/h3]
1. Casey Blake: He hit .249/.327/.397 in his last two years in Los Angeles, lost his job, and has slowed to the point that it's not clear he can handle any position on a regular basis. I'm sure we'll be talking plenty about Blake in 2012 when Carlos Santana, the player the Dodgers traded to acquire him, has his breakout year.

2. Kevin Kouzmanoff: Defensive metrics love him more than the eye test does, but more importantly, the above-average raw power he'll show in BP doesn't play for a hacker with a career .300 OBP.

3. Willie Harris, Eric Chavez, Greg Dobbs: Now I feel like I'm just piling on.
[h3]Trade targets[/h3]
1. David Wright, Mets: He's under contract for $15 million for 2012 with a club option for 2013 that is voided if he's traded. Wright was once an above-average defender at third with an outstanding approach at the plate, quick hand acceleration and the ability to hit for average and power. Now he's a below-average defender whose contact rates have dropped and whose 2011 season was ruined by a stress fracture in his lower back. His body has slowed in general and he wore down badly in September. Yet despite all that he remains a highly attractive trade target because the third-base market is so thin, and because even a return to his 2010 form would make him an upgrade for many contenders at third.

2. Casey McGehee, Brewers: I don't like McGehee's defense at third, but I do think he's a much better hitter going forward than his atrocious 2011 performance would indicate. He showed a severe reverse platoon split, hitting lefties as if every one of them was Steve Carlton (.413 OPS against), but had never had this trouble in any previous year, and there's no physical explanation for it. He's had knee trouble in the past and doesn't have great lateral range at third, but as a cheap one-year fill-in or part-time third baseman who is also a lefty-masher off the bench, he has value.

3. Chase Headley, Padres: Headley, who's headed to arbitration for the second time, has improved in his ability to get on base and to rake against left-handed pitching, but Petco has hidden his actual value, as his road line of .303/.364/.441 hints at what he could do if he played his home games in a neutral park. He's a capable third baseman, not plus, but with the instincts to make enough players to be average. I don't know if he's available, but he's not a good fit for the Padres' park and he's about to get a solid raise, so it would make sense for them to put him out on the market.

4. Ian Stewart, Rockies: Stewart imploded at the plate in 2011 (.464 OPS), although Colorado seemed awfully quick with the hook when he didn't hit, and over the previous three years he'd been a roughly league-average hitter with above-average defense at third. He's only 27 (a common breakout year for hitters) and would likely thrive with a change of scenery that brings him regular playing time.

A-Rod's effect still evident in Texas.

Spoiler [+]
The Texas Rangers have bought the big-ticket item before, and his name was Alex Rodriguez. In three years with Texas, Rodriguez hit 156 homers, drove in 395 runs and posted an OPS around 1.000 each season. He finished sixth, second and first in the AL MVP voting in 2001, 2002 and 2003 respectively.

But after those three seasons, the Rangers wound up dumping Rodriguez's contract because it was too onerous for their payroll. He absorbed so much of their available money that Texas couldn't buy other things it needed to win, like pitching.

The Rangers are in a different place now, as a developing power. They are viewed as the team most likely to have a dynasty in the next decade by some rival executives -- a dynasty that may have already started if Nelson Cruz had caught David Freese's line drive in the ninth inning of Game 6 -- and they are working with the benefit of deep-pocketed ownership, a massive new television contract, a stronger presence in the Texas sports market. Most importantly, they are rich in talent, from the big leagues to the minors.

They could probably afford Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, two players that would do enormous damage in the middle of their lineup, in their ballpark.

But the A-Rod situation probably lingers someplace in the minds of Rangers' officials. Pujols had an offer on the table somewhere in the $200 million range from the St. Louis Cardinals, and Fielder turned down $100 million over five years from the Milwaukee Brewers. If the Rangers are to land either player, they would have to commit something in the range of $25 million to $30 million a year. Or about what they paid Rodriguez.

The Rangers' payroll climbed from $64 million in 2010 to $92 million last season, and they have other bills coming due, too, from the success of their relatively young club over the last two years. C.J. Wilson is a free agent now, and the Rangers would like him back -- at what they view as the right price. Josh Hamilton is set to be eligible for free agency next fall, and so is Mike Napoli. Adrian Beltre will be in the second year of his five-year, $80 million deal. Ian Kinsler has a contractual option for 2013, and then he will be eligible for free agency. Cruz is arbitration eligible, and so are reliever Mike Adams, shortstop Elvis Andrus and pitcher Matt Harrison. Neftali Feliz will be arbitration eligible next winter along with left-hander Derek Holland.

The Rangers would have stepped out significantly for Cliff Lee, and it is possible they would step out for Fielder or Pujols. But the dynamic created by the Rodriguez payroll constriction -- which forced them to trade the best player in baseball to the richest team in baseball, while absorbing about 40 percent of his contract -- will be a factor in their decision-making this winter. That deal, at a different time in their history, was a crusher for them.

For the readers, an open-ended question: If you were in the shoes of Nolan Ryan and GM Jon Daniels, would you invest in Fielder or Pujols in contracts of six or more years at $25 million a year?

It's possible, by the way, that the Rangers will be looking for a pitching coach soon. Texas pitching coach Mike Maddux is intrigued by the Cubs' job after his interview, writes Drew Davison. The Cubs could have a package deal in the works, with both Maddux brothers, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There is terrible news about Wilson Ramos, who was kidnapped in Venezuela on Wednesday. Hopefully this will be resolved as soon as possible and he'll be back with his family.

• Teams are getting mixed signals about whether Yu Darvish intends to pitch in the U.S. next year, and if he decides he wants to, there will be a process to wade through, as Brad Lefton writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Colorado Rockies are among the teams talking with the Atlanta Braves about Martin Prado, writes Troy Renck.

2. Ryan Madson's negotiations with the Philadelphia Phillies began to fray, and Jayson Werth talked to him about the Washington Nationals.

3. Madson is the Phillies' Plan A, but they have a Plan B, in case the talks break down.

4. Willie Bloomquist worked out a two-year deal, as Nick Piecoro writes, after getting an offer from the San Francisco Giants.

5. Jorge Posada acknowledged that he will not be returning to the New York Yankees. The hope here is that he does what he really wants to do -- whatever that is. If he has a burning desire to continue playing, I hope he does that, and if he wants his legacy to be that of someone who spent his whole career with one team, then I hope he gets to retire without regret.

6. The Yankees won't overpay for pitching, writes Joel Sherman.

7. Jose Reyes got a tour of the Florida Marlins' new ballpark. The New York Mets' approach to the Reyes negotiations is basically this: They are not going to engage in a bidding war for the shortstop. They will make an offer they feel comfortable with, and if it's rejected, they will move on -- and so if the Marlins' offers are aggressive as they are expected to be, there would appear to be almost no chance Reyes will go back to the Mets.

The Marlins haven't yet made an offer, writes Juan Rodriguez.

8. The Brewers may also take a run at Reyes, a topic that likely will come up today in a meeting of the team's braintrust.

9. Sandy Alomar, Jr. was interviewed by the Boston Red Sox, as Peter Abraham writes. He made a good impression, writes Scott Lauber.

10. The Kansas City Royals may bring back Jeff Francis.

11. Mike Matheny might make sense for the Cardinals, writes Bernie Miklasz. Ryne Sandberg and Jose Oquendo were interviewed, writes Rick Hummel.

12. The Cincinnati Reds have decided that Aroldis Chapman will not pitch winter ball.

13. Mike Quade is a candidate for the Minnesota Twins Class AAA job.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
•The Marlins become the Miami Marlins on Friday, changing to a name that has a rich history, as Joe Capozzi writes.

• The Mets could go from bad to really bad, as Tyler Kepner writes. Which is why they should trade David Wright this winter. The standard for success among Mets' fans is competing for championships, and by the time the Mets are good enough to do that again, Wright will be gone, one way or another. So if they trade him now in a market that should produce a strong return for a third baseman, they could get pieces that could help them compete for championships.

• A Braves prospect has been getting some notice in the Arizona Fall League, writes David O'Brien.

• The Yankees are among many teams looking at an outfielder from Cuba.

• The San Diego Padres unveiled their new uniforms.

Ranking next years FA's.

Spoiler [+]
The perception of many agents is that teams are working slowly and deliberately through the early days of the free-agency period -- the actions of the Philadelphia Phillies and Florida Marlins notwithstanding -- because they want to see the final details from the forthcoming labor agreement. They want to know exactly what the draft-pick compensation is, and they want to know, for sure, what the true price of signing players is.

But once the labor agreement is finished, we'll learn exactly how many teams will be bidding on Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, how many teams will shy away from the most expensive players in the free-agent market. There is great interest within the industry to learn whether the Chicago Cubs bid on one of those two sluggers, and whether the Los Angeles Dodgers are permitted to pursue them even before ownership is in place. "My guess is that right now, [Major League Baseball] has a pretty good idea of who the Dodgers owners could be," said one insider. "Remember when Barry Bonds was a free agent, and Peter Magowan was a part of his signing before he'd actually been approved as an owner. I think the same thing could happen here."

We'll see. One factor undoubtedly being considered, as part of the evaluation process for the Cubs, Dodgers and other teams, is how weak the rest of the free-agent class is, generally, and how weak it could be next year. If you are the Cubs, Dodgers, Marlins, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners or some other team, and you are looking for a way to boost your franchise substantially without giving up a boatload of prospects in a trade, the list of potential free agents next fall is not game-changing, generally.

Let's say, for argument's sake, that the first order of business for the next owners of the Dodgers would be to spend what is required to sign All-Star center fielder Matt Kemp; the assumption within the industry is that sometime between now and July 31, 2012, the Dodgers will do what it takes to get a Kemp extension done. If Kemp were to come off the board and you drew up a list of Top 10 free agents, among position players and starting pitchers, for next fall, it would look something like this:

Cole Hamels: The Phillies undoubtedly will make a serious attempt to re-sign the left-hander before next fall.

Josh Hamilton: He will be 31 years old next fall and when he's at his best, he's a high-impact player. He's also played in more than 121 games only once in his career.

Matt Cain: San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean places a high value on pitching, and he will work to keep Cain -- who just turned 27 -- off the market.

Mike Napoli: He seemed to come into his own as a player, and as a high-impact offensive catcher, he has a whole lot of value, and the Rangers may well invest in him before next fall.

Andre Ethier: He turns 30 next spring and is open to the idea of a long-term offer from the Dodgers.

John Danks: He will be 27 years old next spring and would seem to be a natural target for the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and other big-market teams if he reaches free agency.

Zack Greinke: The Milwaukee Brewers would like to work out an extension.

Michael Bourn: The Atlanta Braves would like to sign Bourn beyond 2012, but remember, he is represented by Scott Boras, whose clients typically do not sign in their last year of arbitration. He turns 29 next month.

Howie Kendrick: He'll be 29 years old next year and just posted his best OPS season of .802.

B.J. Upton: He'll be 28 next fall, and his market value will depend solely on what kind of season he has in 2011. Folks around baseball are still waiting to see if Upton's production can match what they view as his potential.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Rockies may deal for Prado[/h3]
9:03AM ET

[h5]Martin Prado | Braves [/h5]


The Colorado Rockies may have a hole to fill at second base since the return of free agent Mark Ellis is uncertain at best. One possible alternative could be the Braves' Martin Prado.

Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports the Rockies have contacted the Braves about Prado, although the clubs have yet to exchange names about a possible deal.

The Braves are in the market for outfield help and would reportedly prefer to deal Prado rather than use him in left field. As Renck points out, the Rockies have the outfield depth to make a deal happen. Seth Smith could fit in a platoon for the Braves, and there also is Charlie Blackmon, a former star at Georgia Tech.

Prado could also be an option at third base, another area of concern in Colorado.

Renck wrote Wednesday that the Rockies could elect to keep the struggling http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28722/ian-stewartIan Stewart in the mix at third base and use some of their financial resources at second base instead.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]No Marlins offer to Reyes - for now[/h3]
8:33AM ET

[h5]Jose Reyes | Mets [/h5]


The Florida Marlins gave Jose Reyes a major sales pitch Wednesday that included a tour of their new ballpark and a visit to Joe's Stone Crab.

While the Marlins paid for all the expensive seafood Reyes could eat at the trendy South Beach restaurant, the team did not cap the meal with a contract offer to the free agent shortstop, reports Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel.

Rodriguez added that an offer could be coming soon, which is what the New York Mets expected as they wait for someone else to set the market. Any offer by the Marlins will likely have Reyes surpass Hanley Ramirez as the club's highest paid player. Ramirez is due $15 million, $15.5 million and $16 million over the next three seasons.

John Harper of the NY Daily News reports the Mets are very likely unwilling to offer their homegrown shortstop a six- or seven-year contract, and prepared to lose him if another team does. But there remains a chance that they can retain him on a four- or five-year deal, if the marketplace falls that way.

Other serious suitors for Reyes could be the Brewers and Tigers. Feeling frustrated in their attempt to re-sign http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5915/prince-fielderPrince Fielder, the Brewers are now turning their attention to Reyes, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman.

- Doug Mittler

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
No. 4 -- Jose Reyes, SS
"Reyes would be first on my list if he came into it with a clean medical record. A 28-year-old shortstop who can hit, take a walk and add value on the bases, all while showing a little pop, is a pretty valuable commodity, but Reyes has had chronic hamstring problems that nearly derailed his career. Even in this, his platform year, he played in just 126 games due to more hamstring trouble. He has to be incredibly appealing to any team in search of a shortstop, especially since he is just 28 and should still be in his peak years, but the team that signs him had better have a competent backup available."
http://[h3]Cardinals' managerial search[/h3]
7:58AM ET

[h5]St. Louis Cardinals [/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals could have a manager by next week after completing the first round of interviews in the search to replace departed skipper Tony La Russa.

Chicago Cubs Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg and Cardinals third-base coach Jose Oquendo were interviewed at Busch Stadium Wednesday. GM John Mozeliak tells the Post-Dispatch said no interviews are scheduled, but there could be follow-up talks with some of the existing candidates.

The Cardinals appear to be farther down in the road in their process than the Cubs and Red Sox, the two other clubs with vacancies. Mozeliak could make an announcement last week after the conclusion of the GM meetings.

Former Red Sox manager Terry Francona made his case earlier in the week.

Last week, the Cardinals interviewed Chris Maloney, the Class AAA Memphis manager; http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3930/joe-mcewinghttp://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3930/joe-mcewingJoe McEwing, a Cardinals draft pick who is the third base coach for the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chw/chicago-white-soxhttp://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chw/chicago-white-soxChicago White Sox; and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3046/mike-mathenyhttp://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3046/mike-mathenyMike Matheny, a former catcher who has served as a special assistant in the front office.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Are the Angels thinking big?[/h3]
7:38AM ET

[h5]Los Angeles Angels [/h5]


Could the Los Angeles Angels could end up being big players in the free agent sweepstakes?

Newly appointed general manager Jerry Dipoto says not to count out the franchise as a player in the pursuit of Prince Fielder of Albert Pujols. "Don't assume that we have no interest in Fielder or Pujols," Dipoto told ESPN.com's Jim Bowden. "We don't want to lock the door. We are a high-revenue team and I'm a big believer in acquiring impact players. However, they are not our greatest need and are not priority number one on our list."

First base is by no means a glaring need in Anaheim. Rookie first baseman Mark Trumbo had a fine season with 29 HR and 87 RBI and the club is hoping that the injury-plagued Kendrys Morales will be back next season.

Dipoto said the team's top offseason priority is strengthening the bullpen, especially in terms of right-handed arms. There are plenty of free agent closers to chose from, including Heath Bell, who likes pitching in Southern California.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Dodgers to be quiet in free agency[/h3]
7:09AM ET

[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers [/h5]


If the Los Angeles Dodgers are to add impact pieces to their roster this winter they'll have to do it without adding significant payroll, reports ESPNLosAngeles.com.

A source close to owner Frank McCourt told ESPN.com Wednesday that until the team is sold, there will be no major free agent acquisitions. The time table for a completed purchase of the club is expected to take 4-6 months, which probably means February or March at the earliest.

Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, among others, aren't landing at Dodger Stadium this offseason, and they won't be able to use the Dodgers as leverage in negotiations, either.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Bowden: Nats, Twins match up[/h3]
7:02AM ET

[h5]Twins, Nationals [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The Washington Nationals are looking for center field help. The Minnesota Twins are seeking options at shortstop. ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden of The GM's Office tweets that it "makes too much sense," for the two clubs to match up in trade.

The Nationals could send Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa, both capable shortstops, to Minnesota for one of their two very capable centerfielders in Denard Span and Ben Revere.

Espinosa for Span is the sexier trade, but Desmond for Revere may work for both clubs, too. With the potential for other players to be involved, any mix of two of the four players may make for an eventual deal this winter. None of the four are expensive and each of them is under club control for at least three years, including Span, who signed a multi-year contract with the Twins.


Miami Marlins will sign everyone.

Spoiler [+]
What’s gotten into the Marlins? First, a new name. Next, a new ballpark and uniforms. Now, the desire to spend money on free-agents. For the first time since their inception, it appears the Marlins are willing to spend money to win. This strategy is a stark departure from their “trade anyone who is due for a raise
 
Buyer's Guide: Third Basemen.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]Players in demand[/h3]
1. Aramis Ramirez: I have exactly one true third baseman in my top 50 free agents, and he's not even a good defender. He's a dead-pull hitter who still has the strength to put up solid home run totals, but I don't like his chances to age well, and the patience he used to bring to the table is mostly gone. He'll be productive as long as his bat speed holds up, but his new employers will either have to live with below-average defense at third or contemplate moving him to first or to DH.

2. Wilson Betemit: A lousy defender at third, Betemit can hit enough to handle the position but is better deployed as a backup/utility infielder on a team that has at least a solid-average glove man at third to play ahead of him. He's only 30 this year, has power and has an idea at the plate -- pitchers can't just beat him by throwing him breaking balls, for example -- and he's a good enough hitter from the left side to be worth a roster spot. But even listing him here on the third-base page is generous.

And that's it for worthwhile free agent third basemen.
[h3]Names to avoid[/h3]
1. Casey Blake: He hit .249/.327/.397 in his last two years in Los Angeles, lost his job, and has slowed to the point that it's not clear he can handle any position on a regular basis. I'm sure we'll be talking plenty about Blake in 2012 when Carlos Santana, the player the Dodgers traded to acquire him, has his breakout year.

2. Kevin Kouzmanoff: Defensive metrics love him more than the eye test does, but more importantly, the above-average raw power he'll show in BP doesn't play for a hacker with a career .300 OBP.

3. Willie Harris, Eric Chavez, Greg Dobbs: Now I feel like I'm just piling on.
[h3]Trade targets[/h3]
1. David Wright, Mets: He's under contract for $15 million for 2012 with a club option for 2013 that is voided if he's traded. Wright was once an above-average defender at third with an outstanding approach at the plate, quick hand acceleration and the ability to hit for average and power. Now he's a below-average defender whose contact rates have dropped and whose 2011 season was ruined by a stress fracture in his lower back. His body has slowed in general and he wore down badly in September. Yet despite all that he remains a highly attractive trade target because the third-base market is so thin, and because even a return to his 2010 form would make him an upgrade for many contenders at third.

2. Casey McGehee, Brewers: I don't like McGehee's defense at third, but I do think he's a much better hitter going forward than his atrocious 2011 performance would indicate. He showed a severe reverse platoon split, hitting lefties as if every one of them was Steve Carlton (.413 OPS against), but had never had this trouble in any previous year, and there's no physical explanation for it. He's had knee trouble in the past and doesn't have great lateral range at third, but as a cheap one-year fill-in or part-time third baseman who is also a lefty-masher off the bench, he has value.

3. Chase Headley, Padres: Headley, who's headed to arbitration for the second time, has improved in his ability to get on base and to rake against left-handed pitching, but Petco has hidden his actual value, as his road line of .303/.364/.441 hints at what he could do if he played his home games in a neutral park. He's a capable third baseman, not plus, but with the instincts to make enough players to be average. I don't know if he's available, but he's not a good fit for the Padres' park and he's about to get a solid raise, so it would make sense for them to put him out on the market.

4. Ian Stewart, Rockies: Stewart imploded at the plate in 2011 (.464 OPS), although Colorado seemed awfully quick with the hook when he didn't hit, and over the previous three years he'd been a roughly league-average hitter with above-average defense at third. He's only 27 (a common breakout year for hitters) and would likely thrive with a change of scenery that brings him regular playing time.

A-Rod's effect still evident in Texas.

Spoiler [+]
The Texas Rangers have bought the big-ticket item before, and his name was Alex Rodriguez. In three years with Texas, Rodriguez hit 156 homers, drove in 395 runs and posted an OPS around 1.000 each season. He finished sixth, second and first in the AL MVP voting in 2001, 2002 and 2003 respectively.

But after those three seasons, the Rangers wound up dumping Rodriguez's contract because it was too onerous for their payroll. He absorbed so much of their available money that Texas couldn't buy other things it needed to win, like pitching.

The Rangers are in a different place now, as a developing power. They are viewed as the team most likely to have a dynasty in the next decade by some rival executives -- a dynasty that may have already started if Nelson Cruz had caught David Freese's line drive in the ninth inning of Game 6 -- and they are working with the benefit of deep-pocketed ownership, a massive new television contract, a stronger presence in the Texas sports market. Most importantly, they are rich in talent, from the big leagues to the minors.

They could probably afford Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, two players that would do enormous damage in the middle of their lineup, in their ballpark.

But the A-Rod situation probably lingers someplace in the minds of Rangers' officials. Pujols had an offer on the table somewhere in the $200 million range from the St. Louis Cardinals, and Fielder turned down $100 million over five years from the Milwaukee Brewers. If the Rangers are to land either player, they would have to commit something in the range of $25 million to $30 million a year. Or about what they paid Rodriguez.

The Rangers' payroll climbed from $64 million in 2010 to $92 million last season, and they have other bills coming due, too, from the success of their relatively young club over the last two years. C.J. Wilson is a free agent now, and the Rangers would like him back -- at what they view as the right price. Josh Hamilton is set to be eligible for free agency next fall, and so is Mike Napoli. Adrian Beltre will be in the second year of his five-year, $80 million deal. Ian Kinsler has a contractual option for 2013, and then he will be eligible for free agency. Cruz is arbitration eligible, and so are reliever Mike Adams, shortstop Elvis Andrus and pitcher Matt Harrison. Neftali Feliz will be arbitration eligible next winter along with left-hander Derek Holland.

The Rangers would have stepped out significantly for Cliff Lee, and it is possible they would step out for Fielder or Pujols. But the dynamic created by the Rodriguez payroll constriction -- which forced them to trade the best player in baseball to the richest team in baseball, while absorbing about 40 percent of his contract -- will be a factor in their decision-making this winter. That deal, at a different time in their history, was a crusher for them.

For the readers, an open-ended question: If you were in the shoes of Nolan Ryan and GM Jon Daniels, would you invest in Fielder or Pujols in contracts of six or more years at $25 million a year?

It's possible, by the way, that the Rangers will be looking for a pitching coach soon. Texas pitching coach Mike Maddux is intrigued by the Cubs' job after his interview, writes Drew Davison. The Cubs could have a package deal in the works, with both Maddux brothers, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There is terrible news about Wilson Ramos, who was kidnapped in Venezuela on Wednesday. Hopefully this will be resolved as soon as possible and he'll be back with his family.

• Teams are getting mixed signals about whether Yu Darvish intends to pitch in the U.S. next year, and if he decides he wants to, there will be a process to wade through, as Brad Lefton writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Colorado Rockies are among the teams talking with the Atlanta Braves about Martin Prado, writes Troy Renck.

2. Ryan Madson's negotiations with the Philadelphia Phillies began to fray, and Jayson Werth talked to him about the Washington Nationals.

3. Madson is the Phillies' Plan A, but they have a Plan B, in case the talks break down.

4. Willie Bloomquist worked out a two-year deal, as Nick Piecoro writes, after getting an offer from the San Francisco Giants.

5. Jorge Posada acknowledged that he will not be returning to the New York Yankees. The hope here is that he does what he really wants to do -- whatever that is. If he has a burning desire to continue playing, I hope he does that, and if he wants his legacy to be that of someone who spent his whole career with one team, then I hope he gets to retire without regret.

6. The Yankees won't overpay for pitching, writes Joel Sherman.

7. Jose Reyes got a tour of the Florida Marlins' new ballpark. The New York Mets' approach to the Reyes negotiations is basically this: They are not going to engage in a bidding war for the shortstop. They will make an offer they feel comfortable with, and if it's rejected, they will move on -- and so if the Marlins' offers are aggressive as they are expected to be, there would appear to be almost no chance Reyes will go back to the Mets.

The Marlins haven't yet made an offer, writes Juan Rodriguez.

8. The Brewers may also take a run at Reyes, a topic that likely will come up today in a meeting of the team's braintrust.

9. Sandy Alomar, Jr. was interviewed by the Boston Red Sox, as Peter Abraham writes. He made a good impression, writes Scott Lauber.

10. The Kansas City Royals may bring back Jeff Francis.

11. Mike Matheny might make sense for the Cardinals, writes Bernie Miklasz. Ryne Sandberg and Jose Oquendo were interviewed, writes Rick Hummel.

12. The Cincinnati Reds have decided that Aroldis Chapman will not pitch winter ball.

13. Mike Quade is a candidate for the Minnesota Twins Class AAA job.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
•The Marlins become the Miami Marlins on Friday, changing to a name that has a rich history, as Joe Capozzi writes.

• The Mets could go from bad to really bad, as Tyler Kepner writes. Which is why they should trade David Wright this winter. The standard for success among Mets' fans is competing for championships, and by the time the Mets are good enough to do that again, Wright will be gone, one way or another. So if they trade him now in a market that should produce a strong return for a third baseman, they could get pieces that could help them compete for championships.

• A Braves prospect has been getting some notice in the Arizona Fall League, writes David O'Brien.

• The Yankees are among many teams looking at an outfielder from Cuba.

• The San Diego Padres unveiled their new uniforms.

Ranking next years FA's.

Spoiler [+]
The perception of many agents is that teams are working slowly and deliberately through the early days of the free-agency period -- the actions of the Philadelphia Phillies and Florida Marlins notwithstanding -- because they want to see the final details from the forthcoming labor agreement. They want to know exactly what the draft-pick compensation is, and they want to know, for sure, what the true price of signing players is.

But once the labor agreement is finished, we'll learn exactly how many teams will be bidding on Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, how many teams will shy away from the most expensive players in the free-agent market. There is great interest within the industry to learn whether the Chicago Cubs bid on one of those two sluggers, and whether the Los Angeles Dodgers are permitted to pursue them even before ownership is in place. "My guess is that right now, [Major League Baseball] has a pretty good idea of who the Dodgers owners could be," said one insider. "Remember when Barry Bonds was a free agent, and Peter Magowan was a part of his signing before he'd actually been approved as an owner. I think the same thing could happen here."

We'll see. One factor undoubtedly being considered, as part of the evaluation process for the Cubs, Dodgers and other teams, is how weak the rest of the free-agent class is, generally, and how weak it could be next year. If you are the Cubs, Dodgers, Marlins, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners or some other team, and you are looking for a way to boost your franchise substantially without giving up a boatload of prospects in a trade, the list of potential free agents next fall is not game-changing, generally.

Let's say, for argument's sake, that the first order of business for the next owners of the Dodgers would be to spend what is required to sign All-Star center fielder Matt Kemp; the assumption within the industry is that sometime between now and July 31, 2012, the Dodgers will do what it takes to get a Kemp extension done. If Kemp were to come off the board and you drew up a list of Top 10 free agents, among position players and starting pitchers, for next fall, it would look something like this:

Cole Hamels: The Phillies undoubtedly will make a serious attempt to re-sign the left-hander before next fall.

Josh Hamilton: He will be 31 years old next fall and when he's at his best, he's a high-impact player. He's also played in more than 121 games only once in his career.

Matt Cain: San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean places a high value on pitching, and he will work to keep Cain -- who just turned 27 -- off the market.

Mike Napoli: He seemed to come into his own as a player, and as a high-impact offensive catcher, he has a whole lot of value, and the Rangers may well invest in him before next fall.

Andre Ethier: He turns 30 next spring and is open to the idea of a long-term offer from the Dodgers.

John Danks: He will be 27 years old next spring and would seem to be a natural target for the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and other big-market teams if he reaches free agency.

Zack Greinke: The Milwaukee Brewers would like to work out an extension.

Michael Bourn: The Atlanta Braves would like to sign Bourn beyond 2012, but remember, he is represented by Scott Boras, whose clients typically do not sign in their last year of arbitration. He turns 29 next month.

Howie Kendrick: He'll be 29 years old next year and just posted his best OPS season of .802.

B.J. Upton: He'll be 28 next fall, and his market value will depend solely on what kind of season he has in 2011. Folks around baseball are still waiting to see if Upton's production can match what they view as his potential.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Rockies may deal for Prado[/h3]
9:03AM ET

[h5]Martin Prado | Braves [/h5]


The Colorado Rockies may have a hole to fill at second base since the return of free agent Mark Ellis is uncertain at best. One possible alternative could be the Braves' Martin Prado.

Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports the Rockies have contacted the Braves about Prado, although the clubs have yet to exchange names about a possible deal.

The Braves are in the market for outfield help and would reportedly prefer to deal Prado rather than use him in left field. As Renck points out, the Rockies have the outfield depth to make a deal happen. Seth Smith could fit in a platoon for the Braves, and there also is Charlie Blackmon, a former star at Georgia Tech.

Prado could also be an option at third base, another area of concern in Colorado.

Renck wrote Wednesday that the Rockies could elect to keep the struggling http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28722/ian-stewartIan Stewart in the mix at third base and use some of their financial resources at second base instead.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]No Marlins offer to Reyes - for now[/h3]
8:33AM ET

[h5]Jose Reyes | Mets [/h5]


The Florida Marlins gave Jose Reyes a major sales pitch Wednesday that included a tour of their new ballpark and a visit to Joe's Stone Crab.

While the Marlins paid for all the expensive seafood Reyes could eat at the trendy South Beach restaurant, the team did not cap the meal with a contract offer to the free agent shortstop, reports Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel.

Rodriguez added that an offer could be coming soon, which is what the New York Mets expected as they wait for someone else to set the market. Any offer by the Marlins will likely have Reyes surpass Hanley Ramirez as the club's highest paid player. Ramirez is due $15 million, $15.5 million and $16 million over the next three seasons.

John Harper of the NY Daily News reports the Mets are very likely unwilling to offer their homegrown shortstop a six- or seven-year contract, and prepared to lose him if another team does. But there remains a chance that they can retain him on a four- or five-year deal, if the marketplace falls that way.

Other serious suitors for Reyes could be the Brewers and Tigers. Feeling frustrated in their attempt to re-sign http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5915/prince-fielderPrince Fielder, the Brewers are now turning their attention to Reyes, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman.

- Doug Mittler

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
No. 4 -- Jose Reyes, SS
"Reyes would be first on my list if he came into it with a clean medical record. A 28-year-old shortstop who can hit, take a walk and add value on the bases, all while showing a little pop, is a pretty valuable commodity, but Reyes has had chronic hamstring problems that nearly derailed his career. Even in this, his platform year, he played in just 126 games due to more hamstring trouble. He has to be incredibly appealing to any team in search of a shortstop, especially since he is just 28 and should still be in his peak years, but the team that signs him had better have a competent backup available."
http://[h3]Cardinals' managerial search[/h3]
7:58AM ET

[h5]St. Louis Cardinals [/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals could have a manager by next week after completing the first round of interviews in the search to replace departed skipper Tony La Russa.

Chicago Cubs Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg and Cardinals third-base coach Jose Oquendo were interviewed at Busch Stadium Wednesday. GM John Mozeliak tells the Post-Dispatch said no interviews are scheduled, but there could be follow-up talks with some of the existing candidates.

The Cardinals appear to be farther down in the road in their process than the Cubs and Red Sox, the two other clubs with vacancies. Mozeliak could make an announcement last week after the conclusion of the GM meetings.

Former Red Sox manager Terry Francona made his case earlier in the week.

Last week, the Cardinals interviewed Chris Maloney, the Class AAA Memphis manager; http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3930/joe-mcewinghttp://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3930/joe-mcewingJoe McEwing, a Cardinals draft pick who is the third base coach for the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chw/chicago-white-soxhttp://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chw/chicago-white-soxChicago White Sox; and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3046/mike-mathenyhttp://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3046/mike-mathenyMike Matheny, a former catcher who has served as a special assistant in the front office.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Are the Angels thinking big?[/h3]
7:38AM ET

[h5]Los Angeles Angels [/h5]


Could the Los Angeles Angels could end up being big players in the free agent sweepstakes?

Newly appointed general manager Jerry Dipoto says not to count out the franchise as a player in the pursuit of Prince Fielder of Albert Pujols. "Don't assume that we have no interest in Fielder or Pujols," Dipoto told ESPN.com's Jim Bowden. "We don't want to lock the door. We are a high-revenue team and I'm a big believer in acquiring impact players. However, they are not our greatest need and are not priority number one on our list."

First base is by no means a glaring need in Anaheim. Rookie first baseman Mark Trumbo had a fine season with 29 HR and 87 RBI and the club is hoping that the injury-plagued Kendrys Morales will be back next season.

Dipoto said the team's top offseason priority is strengthening the bullpen, especially in terms of right-handed arms. There are plenty of free agent closers to chose from, including Heath Bell, who likes pitching in Southern California.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Dodgers to be quiet in free agency[/h3]
7:09AM ET

[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers [/h5]


If the Los Angeles Dodgers are to add impact pieces to their roster this winter they'll have to do it without adding significant payroll, reports ESPNLosAngeles.com.

A source close to owner Frank McCourt told ESPN.com Wednesday that until the team is sold, there will be no major free agent acquisitions. The time table for a completed purchase of the club is expected to take 4-6 months, which probably means February or March at the earliest.

Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, among others, aren't landing at Dodger Stadium this offseason, and they won't be able to use the Dodgers as leverage in negotiations, either.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Bowden: Nats, Twins match up[/h3]
7:02AM ET

[h5]Twins, Nationals [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The Washington Nationals are looking for center field help. The Minnesota Twins are seeking options at shortstop. ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden of The GM's Office tweets that it "makes too much sense," for the two clubs to match up in trade.

The Nationals could send Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa, both capable shortstops, to Minnesota for one of their two very capable centerfielders in Denard Span and Ben Revere.

Espinosa for Span is the sexier trade, but Desmond for Revere may work for both clubs, too. With the potential for other players to be involved, any mix of two of the four players may make for an eventual deal this winter. None of the four are expensive and each of them is under club control for at least three years, including Span, who signed a multi-year contract with the Twins.


Miami Marlins will sign everyone.

Spoiler [+]
What’s gotten into the Marlins? First, a new name. Next, a new ballpark and uniforms. Now, the desire to spend money on free-agents. For the first time since their inception, it appears the Marlins are willing to spend money to win. This strategy is a stark departure from their “trade anyone who is due for a raise
 
The Pirates bring in Rod Bajaras.

Spoiler [+]
In 2011, the Pirates received 2.5 WAR and a 92 wRC+ out of their catchers, mostly because Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder spent most of the summer on the DL. Pittsburgh declined the duo’s expensive options after the season, and today they brought in a new backstop via free agency, former Dodger Rod Barajas. The damage: one-year and $4 million with a club option for 2013 worth $3.5 million. It’s not often you see an option worth less than money than the guaranteed years, but I digress.

At 36 years old, Barajas is a known quantity. He’s managed to match or exceed a .307 wOBA in three of the last four years, though his on-base percentage hasn’t been able to crack .295 since 2007 – he’s had to make up for it by providing power, which is exactly what he’s done. Barajas is a Grade-A hacker that can punish mistakes, hitting at least 11 homers in his seven seasons with 300 or more plate appearances. He’s gone deep at least 16 times in each of the last three seasons, something accomplished by exactly one catcher in the long history of the Pirates franchise: Jim Pagliaroni in 1965, who hit 17.

Barajas does have some defensive value, at least in terms of things we can measure. He threw out 25% of attempted basestealers in 2011 and has a career success rate of 31%, both right around average. Our fielding values have him ranging from -4.0 runs to +2.2 runs over the last four seasons, so while he’s not an amazing defender, he’s at least an upgrade over the likes of Doumit, anyway.

At $4 million, Barajas is currently the highest paid player on the team’s roster. Joel Hanrahan has a shot at exceeding that through arbitration, but work done by our own Matt Swartz at MLB Trade Rumors forecasts a $3.9 million salary for the closer. The Bus are paying their new catcher to be worth just about one win, something Barajas should be able to do just by staying healthy and running into the occasional fastball. The move also allows them to be a little more patient with top catching prospect Tony Sanchez, the former fourth overall pick who had a rough go of it in Double-A this past season (.306 wOBA). It’s not a great value signing, but it’s hardly a disaster, and gives the Pirates some stability at a position where they’ve had a lot of turnover.

So far this offseason, we’ve seen three flawed players in Barajas (lack of OBP), Juan Rivera (declining pop), and Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder problems) sign for a $4M base salary in 2012, essentially setting the market for mediocre role players. Willie Bloomquist got half that annual salary as part of a two-year pact.

The rising prices for filling out the bottom 20% of a team’s roster is showing that teams do place a value on below average but better than replacement level players. Like his fellow free agents to sign so far, Barajas isn’t a difference maker, but he provides some security against disaster, and teams are showing that they’re willing to invest in these kinds of insurance policies.


Best rotation ever?

Spoiler [+]
Last winter when the Phillies were revealed as the mystery team that scooped up Cliff Lee off the open market, every baseball mind in the country pondered: Is this the best rotation ever? Dave Cameron chimed in on the topic and concluded this was no case of hyperbole. The consensus around the blogosphere was that entering the 2011 season, Philadelphia had collected the most talented group of starters baseball had ever seen – at least on paper.  Even if you only paid attention to the Phillies peripherally this season, you certainly know the trio of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Lee didn’t disappoint. But the label of being the best rotation ever is a towering level to live up to. How did the rotation – on a whole – stack up against its historical competition for the title of “Best Rotation Ever
 
The Pirates bring in Rod Bajaras.

Spoiler [+]
In 2011, the Pirates received 2.5 WAR and a 92 wRC+ out of their catchers, mostly because Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder spent most of the summer on the DL. Pittsburgh declined the duo’s expensive options after the season, and today they brought in a new backstop via free agency, former Dodger Rod Barajas. The damage: one-year and $4 million with a club option for 2013 worth $3.5 million. It’s not often you see an option worth less than money than the guaranteed years, but I digress.

At 36 years old, Barajas is a known quantity. He’s managed to match or exceed a .307 wOBA in three of the last four years, though his on-base percentage hasn’t been able to crack .295 since 2007 – he’s had to make up for it by providing power, which is exactly what he’s done. Barajas is a Grade-A hacker that can punish mistakes, hitting at least 11 homers in his seven seasons with 300 or more plate appearances. He’s gone deep at least 16 times in each of the last three seasons, something accomplished by exactly one catcher in the long history of the Pirates franchise: Jim Pagliaroni in 1965, who hit 17.

Barajas does have some defensive value, at least in terms of things we can measure. He threw out 25% of attempted basestealers in 2011 and has a career success rate of 31%, both right around average. Our fielding values have him ranging from -4.0 runs to +2.2 runs over the last four seasons, so while he’s not an amazing defender, he’s at least an upgrade over the likes of Doumit, anyway.

At $4 million, Barajas is currently the highest paid player on the team’s roster. Joel Hanrahan has a shot at exceeding that through arbitration, but work done by our own Matt Swartz at MLB Trade Rumors forecasts a $3.9 million salary for the closer. The Bus are paying their new catcher to be worth just about one win, something Barajas should be able to do just by staying healthy and running into the occasional fastball. The move also allows them to be a little more patient with top catching prospect Tony Sanchez, the former fourth overall pick who had a rough go of it in Double-A this past season (.306 wOBA). It’s not a great value signing, but it’s hardly a disaster, and gives the Pirates some stability at a position where they’ve had a lot of turnover.

So far this offseason, we’ve seen three flawed players in Barajas (lack of OBP), Juan Rivera (declining pop), and Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder problems) sign for a $4M base salary in 2012, essentially setting the market for mediocre role players. Willie Bloomquist got half that annual salary as part of a two-year pact.

The rising prices for filling out the bottom 20% of a team’s roster is showing that teams do place a value on below average but better than replacement level players. Like his fellow free agents to sign so far, Barajas isn’t a difference maker, but he provides some security against disaster, and teams are showing that they’re willing to invest in these kinds of insurance policies.


Best rotation ever?

Spoiler [+]
Last winter when the Phillies were revealed as the mystery team that scooped up Cliff Lee off the open market, every baseball mind in the country pondered: Is this the best rotation ever? Dave Cameron chimed in on the topic and concluded this was no case of hyperbole. The consensus around the blogosphere was that entering the 2011 season, Philadelphia had collected the most talented group of starters baseball had ever seen – at least on paper.  Even if you only paid attention to the Phillies peripherally this season, you certainly know the trio of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Lee didn’t disappoint. But the label of being the best rotation ever is a towering level to live up to. How did the rotation – on a whole – stack up against its historical competition for the title of “Best Rotation Ever
 
[h1]Phillies To Sign Jonathan Papelbon [/h1]
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [November 11, 2011 at 1:18pm CST]

The Phillies have agreed to sign Jonathan Papelbon, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (on Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. The Phillies appeared to have a deal with Ryan Madson earlier this week, but talks fell through and the sides didn't complete the rumored four-year, $44MM deal.

Papelbon, 30, posted a 2.94 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 64 1/3 innings for the Red Sox in 2011, saving 31 games. He's a Type A free agent who will cost the Phillies their first round pick in 2012. If the Phillies lose Madson to another team after offering him arbitration, they'll lose one pick and gain two.
 
[h1]Phillies To Sign Jonathan Papelbon [/h1]
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [November 11, 2011 at 1:18pm CST]

The Phillies have agreed to sign Jonathan Papelbon, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (on Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. The Phillies appeared to have a deal with Ryan Madson earlier this week, but talks fell through and the sides didn't complete the rumored four-year, $44MM deal.

Papelbon, 30, posted a 2.94 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 64 1/3 innings for the Red Sox in 2011, saving 31 games. He's a Type A free agent who will cost the Phillies their first round pick in 2012. If the Phillies lose Madson to another team after offering him arbitration, they'll lose one pick and gain two.
 
Madson or Papsmear, either of em would still be overpaid at their respective prices. I thought the Marlins would make a splash with Paps. I think Boston starts out with Bard but they bring someone else in just in case he has a rough start like last year.
 
Madson or Papsmear, either of em would still be overpaid at their respective prices. I thought the Marlins would make a splash with Paps. I think Boston starts out with Bard but they bring someone else in just in case he has a rough start like last year.
 
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