The
Toronto Blue Jays were tied for third in
blown saves in 2011 with 25, and in the still of the offseason, club officials will inevitably play the what-if game (and you can't blame them).
What if Toronto's relievers had been just mildly more efficient and had not blown just six leads? Well, rather than finishing the year at 81-81, Toronto would have been within a stone's throw of the wild card. The Jays might've been part of some three-team mix at the end, with the
Tampa Bay Rays and
Boston Red Sox.
It stands to reason that in 2012, when the Blue Jays may seemingly take a long stride forward toward contending for their first playoff appearance since 1993, a shutdown closer could make an enormous difference for Toronto. The word is that the Blue Jays are aggressively seeking an experienced closer, either through the free-agent market or in the trade market -- someone who will reward Toronto's developing starting pitchers for their efforts.
Among the names that have come up in their conversations:
Heath Bell;
Jonathan Papelbon (if the Jays landed him, they would theoretically be weakening one of the teams they are chasing);
Joe Nathan, who threw the ball
very well down the stretch as he got further removed from his elbow surgery; and
Andrew Bailey, for whom the Blue Jays would have to trade.
If the Blue Jays signed a closer, they would not have to surrender talent in a deal; they would have to pay a premium in salary and perhaps a draft pick. If they traded for Bailey, the Blue Jays would have to give up prospects, but they would control the reliever through the 2014 season -- and colleagues say that Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos places a very high value on player control. Trading Bailey now would make sense for the
Oakland Athletics because they continue to rot in a baseball twilight zone while waiting to see if they can get approval for a San Jose ballpark. The A's are probably not going to contend in 2012 and may want to take advantage of Bailey's value now before he becomes more expensive through arbitration.
No matter how the Blue Jays fill the closer's role, they are intent on getting somebody who can control the ninth inning a lot better in 2011.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The
Minnesota Twins managed to execute the nicest firing in the history of baseball as they relieved Bill Smith of his GM duties. The club's press release made reference to the desire to have Smith stay with the organization and mentioned Smith's family. Smith is very well-liked and
respected within the organization.
This was business, not personal; the Twins decided it was not working with Smith, and by all accounts, Terry Ryan is returning to be a Minnesota version of Jack McKeon, keeping the GM's seat warm until somebody else is found to step in. Rather, Ryan has come back to the Twins burning to make the situation better.
It's possible that Michael Cuddyer's situation inflamed the discussion about how the Twins had gotten away from a strong internal culture -- for which Cuddyer has been viewed as a keeper of the flame. The fact that Cuddyer may be ready to leave the Twins, amid concern over a drift of priorities, caught the attention of some decision-makers within the team's hierarchy.
Ryan returns to the GM post at a very difficult stage for the Twins. There isn't a lot they can do other than wait for
Joe Mauer and
Justin Morneau to get healthy, because so much payroll is locked into those two players. But for some in the organization, Ryan's emergence provides a boost of morale as the Twins move ahead.
Ryan said he doesn't know if this will be for
one year or 10 years. The Pohlads saw
big issues at play, writes Patrick Reusse. The Twins are
Terry Ryan's team, writes Jim Souhan. The Twins made the
right move, writes Tom Powers.
• The
Baltimore Orioles' GM search veered like a
Mariano Rivera cutter, evolving from a search for the best possible candidate to a search for qualified folks who actually wanted the job. Last Wednesday morning, Dan Duquette was another name on a long list of ex-general managers who had called the Orioles, and by late Friday afternoon, he all but had the job.
Among friends and former colleagues, Duquette's acumen is highly regarded. Kevin Malone worked for Duquette with the Montreal Expos, and he sent along these thoughts:
- "The Orioles made an excellent decision in hiring Dan Duquette -- a talented, proven and experienced GM that knows how to build winning and successful ML teams and organizations. His experiences include a very strong scouting and player development background. In the early '90s Dan built the Montreal Expos into one of the ML's best organizations through his emphasis on the farm system and key trades. Due to Dan's efforts, the 1994 Expos team was arguably the best in all of baseball. From 1994 through 2002 Dan rebuilt the Red Sox into one of the game's best teams and organizations.
- "Dan complements manager Buck Showalter extremely well. Both are very intelligent and skilled, and have exceptional baseball instincts and a feel for the game. Both men are extremely hard workers, committed to excellence and passionate about winning. Buck and Dan are true baseball men that have experienced success, know how to evaluate talent and know what it takes to win. Each understands the value and importance of talent acquisition through scouting and player development. These two will partner well as a united front; one on the field and the other in the O's front office.
- "The Orioles need an infusion of young talent and Dan's history of success in this area will provide the much needed results. His understanding of the importance of international players and well as the needed relationships to sign such players from the Pacific Rim and Latin America will be a major help. As the GM in Boston, Dan helped overhaul and rebuild the Red Sox into a serious international scouting threat. Dan is a proven team builder."
Duquette is ready to
rejoin the fraternity, writes Dan Connolly.
• The conversations between the
Kansas City Royals and
San Francisco Giants about a possible
Jonathan Sanchez for
Melky Cabrera swap started five weeks ago, Kansas City GM Dayton Moore recalled in a phone conversation Monday. The Royals know their window for contending is about to open, with the emergence of
Eric Hosmer,
Mike Moustakas and the organization's other top prospects. But the starting pitching is a concern, and Moore has been intent on improving it for 2012.
As Moore has looked around, these parameters have been in play:
1. Spending big dollars on free agents is something that the Royals are convinced is probably not a good idea. The
Gil Meche deal simply did not work out.
2. Moore has no intention of trading the high-end position prospects -- Hosmer, Moustakas, Wil Myers, etc. Moore was interested in
Jair Jurrjens, but the
Atlanta Braves are marketing him as a No. 1-type ace and wanted a big-time return -- Myers, in particular. In order to meet the Rays' asking price for
James Shields -- which seems to be market value plus 30 percent, because Tampa Bay is not at all motivated to move Shields -- Moore would have to package at least two high-end prospects, which is something he won't do. (And within a couple of years, Shields would probably be too expensive for the Royals, anyway.)
By trading Cabrera for Sanchez, Moore deals someone who is probably not part of the team's long-term future for Sanchez, who has a chance to be good. "He has shown that on any given day, he can shut down any lineup," Moore said.
In adding Sanchez, Moore is looking to thread the needle, improving his rotation without paying an exorbitant cost. The Royals were concerned, too, about making sure that they give
Lorenzo Cain -- who came to them in the
Zack Greinke trade -- a chance to play daily and establish himself in center field.
Cain will
step in, as Bob Dutton writes. This is the
right move for the moment for the Royals, writes Sam Mellinger.
The acquisition of Cabrera means that
Andres Torres could be the
odd man out for the Giants, writes Henry Schulman. Andrew Baggarly has some thoughts about
Cabrera's career year.
• One of the most important issues being negotiated in the collective bargaining talks these days is about the Type A designation for free agents. Initially, the draft-pick compensation was set up three decades ago to deter George Steinbrenner from signing all the top free agents. Then, over time, teams used the offer of arbitration to free agents -- which comes along with the draft-pick compensation attached -- as a way to extend the window to negotiate in the offseason.
But during the last four or five years, teams have placed a higher value on draft picks. And so the players deemed Type A free agents have seen their market value plummet when their old teams have offered arbitration, because some teams don't like to surrender draft picks when signing a player. Most notably,
Juan Cruz was a Type A free agent a few years ago, and he basically was getting no offers because nobody wanted to give up a draft pick to sign him (until Major League Baseball and the union worked on a compromise on his behalf).
The union and management seem focused on two possible solutions for the Type A quandary:
1. Rather than asking teams to surrender a top pick, the team that loses a Type A free agent will merely be granted a draft pick in the supplement round.
2. A guarantee of a high-end salary for any Type A free agent who is offered arbitration, along the lines of the system used in the NFL. For example: If the
San Diego Padres offered arbitration to Heath Bell, San Diego would be obligated to pay Bell a salary comparable to the highest-echelon relievers in the game. This would prevent players from being abused in the Type A situation -- such as last winter, when
Grant Balfour was deemed a Type A free agent and saw his market disintegrate. The Rays would never have offered Balfour arbitration had they known that they would have to pay him like one of the highest relievers in the sport.
One of the unresolved questions is whether the Type A adjustments will be made for the 2012 season or for 2013. But there continues to be optimism, in general, that a new labor agreement will be finished sometime in the next two weeks.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. So much for the assertion that
Hanley Ramirez will continue to be the
Florida Marlins' shortstop --
the team is in pursuit of
Jose Reyes, as Clark Spencer writes, and presumably will move Ramirez to third if they are successful. You'd have to install the Marlins as a heavy favorite in this bidding, because Florida has money to spend and Reyes fits perfectly into the style favored by new manager Ozzie Guillen. There had been discussion in the organization for months that Ramirez had gotten too big to be an effective shortstop, and that he should be moved to third.
2. The Marlins are among the teams interested in
Yoenis Cespedes; they will make a
strong bid, writes Juan Rodriguez.
3. The
Colorado Rockies are looking at
deals for pitching, as Troy Renck writes, and they have had some internal conversation about second baseman
Aaron Hill.
4.
Jamey Carroll has
his eye on the
Detroit Tigers.
5. The
St. Louis Cardinals hope to have a
manager by next week, writes Derrick Goold.
6. Mike Maddux won't
talk with the Red Sox. It's hard to say what this means in the Red Sox
managerial search, writes John Tomase.
7. The
Chicago Cubs expect to address the
Carlos Zambrano situation this week, sources say. Here's the thing: Zambrano has a full no-trade clause and therefore has the power to force himself into free agency -- because if he just said no to every trade proposal that the Cubs bring to him, he would leave Theo Epstein with the choice of either keeping Zambrano or releasing him. So presumably, the Cubs will work with some guidance from Zambrano on where he wants to go.
