If Yankees executives are a little anxious this morning, you wouldn't blame them. Nineteen months ago, they agreed to a deal for what they viewed as a difference-making pitcher, and the swap seemed so assured that one club official told everyone he bumped into at the Yankees' complex in Florida that everything was finished. But at the 24th hour, the trade was blown up;
Cliff Lee was the pitcher in that proposed pitcher,
Jesus Montero was the trade bait, and the team that pulled out, of course, was the
Seattle Mariners.
Once again, the Yankees are in that twilight zone situation: They've agreed to trade Montero for what they believe will be a difference-making pitcher,
Michael Pineda -- who turns 23
in four days -- and physical examinations are pending; the deal may not be announced, officially, until next week.
But the Mariners and Yankees have been talking about this deal for months. Presumably, there won't be any seller's remorse in Seattle, despite the strong initial reaction from rival GMs that the framework of the proposed deal -- Pineda and Campos for Jesus Montero and the underrated
Hector Noesi -- is an extraordinary trade for the Yankees, who also have signed
Hiroki Kuroda.
"If the Mariners liked Montero so much," asked one official, "why didn't they just trade Cliff Lee for him?" That, of course, would've allowed Seattle to keep Pineda, as part of a young, powerful rotation -- and the Rays have demonstrated, again, that strong starting pitching is this sport's great equalizer. The Mariners' blueprint, before this trade, was to build around
Felix Hernandez, Pineda, No. 1 pick Danny Hultzen and other starters going forward.
Another question raised by a rival executive: If the Mariners were going to trade a frontline starter, why not deal the more expensive Felix Hernandez -- who will make $58 million over the
next three seasons -- and get Montero as part of a bigger and better package in return?
But as the Mariners moved through this offseason, one evaluator said, it became painfully apparent to them that acquiring offensive talent is, in the end, much more difficult for them than to develop pitching, largely because of their pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Adrian Beltre may be the last big-time hitter who signs with Seattle, because others are leery of what the dimensions of Safeco Field will do their numbers.
There is no doubt, either, that Montero is viewed as an elite hitter; long before this trade, some scouts have compared his style and unusual ability (for a power hitter) to make contact and drive the ball the other way to that of
Edgar Martinez, the Mariners' Hall of Fame candidate. "He could hit 25-30 homers a year for 10 years," said an evaluator on Friday night.
But in order for the Mariners to get fair value in this deal, some rival officials noted, Montero must be a catcher. "You can't trade a young starter like Pineda unless you are filling a premium position," said one executive. "Shortstop. Third base. Center field. Maybe second base. And catcher."
A lot of evaluators don't believe that Montero has a future as a catcher, because of concerns over his hands, his devotion to the position, and the lack of quickness in his feet. Prior to the 2010 season, the Yankees altered Montero's throwing mechanics, eliminating the movement in his feet in such a way that allowed him to take advantage of his strong arm.
The Yankees believe he will be a catcher, and so do the Mariners. Other teams love Montero's bat, but still see him as a DH.
But the chorus is loud on the future of Pineda, who is a lot like
CC Sabathia in his height, at 6-foot-7, and in one crucial trait -- despite his size, Pineda is a strike-thrower, in the mid-90s. Even as a 22-year-old rookie last summer,
Pineda ranked 31st in strikeout-to-walk ratio, at 3.15, and
he ranked seventh in strikeouts per nine innings. The Yankees intend to tuck him in the middle of their rotation, behind Kuroda and Nova, to ease the pressure that he will have in his first season in New York, and if the deal goes through, they will have two young starters in Nova and Pineda once Sabathia begins to decline.
[h4]Tale of two seasons[/h4]
How Pineda's numbers broke down before and after the All-Star break.
| | |
| W-L | 8-6 | 1-4 |
| ERA | 3.03 | 5.12 |
| IP-HR | 113-10 | 58-8 |
[th=""]Stats[/th][th=""]Before Break[/th][th=""]After Break[/th]
"You almost never see talents like that get traded," said one GM. "It makes you wonder if (the Mariners) saw something they didn't like in the second half."
The Yankees will take their chances, and soon enough, they will learn if the Mariners are ready to push this deal across the finish line and land Montero, once and for all.
The Yankees were like Michael Corleone in The Godfather: They settled all family business in one day.
Some numbers on Pineda: He had the lowest opponent batting average against right-handed hitters in 2011 (.184), recorded the fifth-highest average fastball velocity among starting pitchers (94.5) and had the fifth-highest fastball miss percentage among starters (20.4).
The Mariners desperately needed offense, having recorded the lowest BA of an AL team in the DH era (since 1973) last season -- .233. They should get plenty out of Montero, who last season recorded the sixth-highest OPS of a player during their age 21 season or younger since WWII, with .996.
The Mariners went the trade route to add offense,
writes Larry Stone. It's a headline-grabber,
writes Larry LaRue.
The deal bolsters the Yankees' rotation,
as David Waldstein writes. This deal adds to Brian Cashman's legacy,
writes John Harper. The Yankees renovated their rotation,
writes Dan Martin and Joel Sherman. The Yankees shook up the offseason,
writes Anthony Rieber.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• A great question, asked by a really smart executive: Why is Yoenis Cespedes playing in any winter ball games? His first couple of games
were rough, not surprisingly, because he hasn't played in a really long time. But already there are red flags about his ability to recognize a breaking ball -- as with
Wily Mo Pena -- and he really wouldn't have gained anything if he had had success.
The Tigers are
one of the teams watching Cespedes. The Nationals were not mentioned by the outfielder, as he discussed his
possible suitors.
• The Indians would seem to be in a position to land a good first baseman, one way or another. There are not many opportunities remaining for a veteran first baseman to get regular at-bats, and the Indians have been patiently waiting for the market prices to come back to them. As of today,
Casey Kotchman is unsigned, and so is
Carlos Pena, and if the Nationals were to sign
Prince Fielder,
Adam LaRoche would become available. All of the remaining first basemen (including
Derrek Lee, who had indicated earlier in this offseason that he didn't want to sign with the Indians) are plus defenders, which will be important for a rotation loaded with groundball pitchers.
Three of the top-10-ranked pitchers in
groundball ratio in 2011 --
Derek Lowe,
Justin Masterson and
Fausto Carmona -- will pitch for the Indians in 2012.
Chris Antonetti is working on making that first base decision,
as Paul Hoynes writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The D-Backs
have interest in
Bartolo Colon. Keep in mind that Kevin Towers, Arizona's GM, worked for the Yankees for a year, so he will presumably get an honest read from New York about what they believe Colon could contribute.
2. The Rangers are
among the teams talking with Prince Fielder. I think the stance for the Cubs and Rangers has been consistent all along: If a Fielder deal can be had on the team's terms, they'd be interested. One rival executive thinks that whether it's the Nationals, Rangers or Cubs, the structure will be something along the lines of a six- or seven-year deal, with an opt-out clause after two or three years in the contract.
The Nationals have made a lot of deals with Scott Boras,
as Thomas Boswell writes.
Mark Teixeira's contract situation is a cautionary tale for the Fielder bidders,
writes Bob Klapisch.
3.
Kerry Wood has a new deal,
writes Gordon Wittenmyer. There is optimism in the air at the Cubs' convention,
writes Paul Sullivan.
4. Charges against
Drew Pomeranz have been
dismissed.
5. The Padres can blame Frank McCourt for the owners' decision to hold approval on the club's sale, sources say. Major League Baseball wants to make sure that incoming Padres owner Jeff Moorad is properly capitalized -- which is something that became a debilitating problem in McCourt's ownership.
6.
A legal request by McCourt was denied.
7. There are six Pirates
eligible for arbitration.
8. Tim Lincecum's arbitration request will be record-setting,
as Ron Blum writes.
9.
Mike DiGiovanna considers Albert Pujols' value to the Angels.
10.
The Red Sox want to keep
Jason Varitek in the family.
11. Here are some
free-agent possibilities for the Orioles.
12.
Martin Prado signed with the Braves, and
they signed Jack Wilson.
13.
Kyle Kendrick agreed to terms.
