2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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You know what? I'm just rehashing on all the pitching prospects the Mariners have right now and you guys are flat out wrong about the overall impact on this trade. The have 3 pitchers coming up soon that all have #1 and #2 potential to maintain a top rotation in the MLB for years and now have an anchor for their lineup.

Sometimes you just can have the herd mentality when talking about building teams because each team is different and I will stand by everything I said before and feel very confident this trade works out perfectly fine for the Mariners.
 
You know what? I'm just rehashing on all the pitching prospects the Mariners have right now and you guys are flat out wrong about the overall impact on this trade. The have 3 pitchers coming up soon that all have #1 and #2 potential to maintain a top rotation in the MLB for years and now have an anchor for their lineup.

Sometimes you just can have the herd mentality when talking about building teams because each team is different and I will stand by everything I said before and feel very confident this trade works out perfectly fine for the Mariners.
 
The trade isn't as bad as people are making it out from the Mariner's perspective. Given that developing arms to pitch in Safeco shouldn't be terribly difficult. 

My only criticism is that Seattle should have received more for Pineda.
 
The trade isn't as bad as people are making it out from the Mariner's perspective. Given that developing arms to pitch in Safeco shouldn't be terribly difficult. 

My only criticism is that Seattle should have received more for Pineda.
 
Damon May Be Option For Yankees At DH

Read more: http://baseball.realgm.co...ees_at_dh/#ixzz1jfnksAqp

With Jesus Montero sent to the Mariners for pitcher Michael Pineda, Johnny Damon could find a home back with the Yankees as they search for a designated hitter.

Damon is a possibility, but a move is far from imminent. The Yankees "haven't evaluated our options or preferences yet," according to a source.

New York is also considering internal candidates, as well as free agents like Carlos Pena.

Via New York Daily News


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Carlos Pena Could Be Next Target For Yankees
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After trading young hitter Jesus Montero on Friday night, the Yankees are now in need of a regular designated hitter.

There may be a number of players on New York's radar now, but Carlos Pena may be the most notable.

Via Jon Heyman/CBS Sports

Read more: http://baseball.realgm.co...r_yankees/#ixzz1jfo90r9G
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Pena please.
 
Damon May Be Option For Yankees At DH

Read more: http://baseball.realgm.co...ees_at_dh/#ixzz1jfnksAqp

With Jesus Montero sent to the Mariners for pitcher Michael Pineda, Johnny Damon could find a home back with the Yankees as they search for a designated hitter.

Damon is a possibility, but a move is far from imminent. The Yankees "haven't evaluated our options or preferences yet," according to a source.

New York is also considering internal candidates, as well as free agents like Carlos Pena.

Via New York Daily News


[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Carlos Pena Could Be Next Target For Yankees
[/font]

After trading young hitter Jesus Montero on Friday night, the Yankees are now in need of a regular designated hitter.

There may be a number of players on New York's radar now, but Carlos Pena may be the most notable.

Via Jon Heyman/CBS Sports

Read more: http://baseball.realgm.co...r_yankees/#ixzz1jfo90r9G
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Pena please.
 
Ryan Ludwick to the Reds... I like this move.
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com tweeted tonight that the Reds and free agent outfielder Ryan Ludwick have agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2013.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, following Rosenthal’s report, tweeted that Ludwick gets $2.5 million with a chance to make $3 million.
 
Ryan Ludwick to the Reds... I like this move.
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com tweeted tonight that the Reds and free agent outfielder Ryan Ludwick have agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2013.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, following Rosenthal’s report, tweeted that Ludwick gets $2.5 million with a chance to make $3 million.
 
Bryce Harper could rise quickly.
Spoiler [+]
If Bryce Harper was like a lot of 18-year-olds last March, he might have been thinking about his last days of high school and his senior prom date. Instead, he was in big-league camp with the Washington Nationals. His parents were in Florida to see him compete against professionals a decade older rather than attending a graduation.

This is where they bumped into Davey Johnson, who was a special assistant for the Nationals at that time but was soon to become manager. And Johnson offered a prediction. "I told them that he would get at-bats in the big leagues when he was 19 years old," Johnson recalled last week, over the phone. "He's that good."

Johnson's credentials for projecting the capabilities of young talent are impeccable. In 1984, he lobbied for the Mets to promote a 19-year-old who had never pitched above Class A to the big leagues, and that summer, Dwight Gooden struck out 276 batters before he turned 20.

Because of Johnson's role in the ascension of Gooden, any conversation about Harper naturally turns to the former Mets' right-hander, and Johnson does not run from the comparison; rather, he embraces it.

To be convinced that Gooden could make the jump to the big leagues, Johnson recalled, he had to see that the pitcher's skills had rounded out. He had to know that Gooden could throw his secondary pitches for strikes, so that he wouldn't be wholly reliant on his fastball. "If a pitcher has big-league stuff and can command," Johnson said, "he can pitch at any level."

In the same way, Johnson said, there are two things he has wanted to see in Harper, as he and the Nationals begin to evaluate the question of whether the young slugger will start the year in the big leagues. "No. 1 -- does he know the strike zone?" Johnson said. "Some hitters -- some young hitters -- will expand the zone and chase pitches, especially when they start to struggle. I think he knows the strike zone."

Last summer, while playing in Class A and AA, Harper drew a more than respectable 59 walks in 109 games, and while he initially struggled in Class AA, Johnson believes this was partly a case of a young player getting caught up in trying to live up to the advance notices. Once Harper settled in, Johnson says, he was much better.

The second skill that Johnson has wanted to see in Harper is the ability to adjust to a breaking ball. "He uses the whole field," said Johnson. "If he can do that -- well, that's tantamount."

Because inevitably, if Harper mashed fastballs, then opposing pitchers would throw him a whole bunch of offspeed stuff -- sliders, curveballs, splitters. Call it the Wily Mo treatment.

Johnson believed Harper could adapt even before Harper opened in the Arizona Fall League, which he dominated, hitting .333, posting an OPS of over 1.000, with an on-base percentage of .400.

Johnson, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo and others will watch Harper in spring training this year and decide whether to have him open the year in the big leagues. If he needs a little more time in the minors to be ready, that's the route they'll go.

ny_a_strawberry_gooden_b1_288.jpg

AP Photo/Richard DrewStraw and Doc in 1984.

But Harper is a left-handed hitter and Johnson sees the Nationals as being right-handed heavy, and there is an open spot in the Washington outfield. "We basically had no left-handed presence last year," Johnson said. Remember this, too: Johnson loves young players, loves the energy they bring. He will invest time in an inexperienced player with game-changing talent even if it means some ugly early days, because those will lead to the great days.

"I really like his parents," said Johnson. "He's well-grounded and well-adjusted, and he rises to the occasion. He's a tough kid, and he likes the challenge. I would love to see someone who could sting the ball from the left side make my ballclub. That's what spring training is all about."

Because of Johnson's role with the memorable Mets of the mid-80s, any conversation about Harper naturally turns to a big left-handed slugger who could sting the ball -- Darryl Strawberry. Johnson does not run from that comparison either; again, he embraces it. "He's got more drive and more ambition to succeed that Straw did," Johnson said. "Straw got better, but this kid is going to push himself to really improve. This kid is driven."

You hang up the phone and you are convinced that Johnson's prediction that Harper's first at-bats will take place in the big leagues at age 19, and they will happen very, very early in the season.

---

The Nationals signed Gio Gonzalez, and this is what it could mean for Jordan Zimmermann, writes Adam Kilgore. The Nats agreed to terms with Jesus Flores.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
Prince Fielder has made it clear he wants to be with the Texas Rangers, writes Evan Grant.

• There are a half-dozen veteran free agents who would best be classified as designated hitters at this stage in their respective careers, from Hideki Matsui to Vladimir Guerrero to Johnny Damon to Manny Ramirez. But the position of DH is going through an evolution in the sport, with most AL teams preferring to use the spot for positional flexibility, rather than devoting all of the at-bats and a whole lot of money to just one player (David Ortiz and Travis Hafner are notable exceptions).

The New York Yankees, for example, may decide in the end to devote a lot of the DH at-bats to Eduardo Nunez -- but not necessarily with Nunez getting the at-bats at DH. They could give Alex Rodriguez 25 to 40 games at DH to help keep him healthy, with Nunez starting at third, and Derek Jeter could get some games at DH, with Nunez starting at shortstop. The Baltimore Orioles really liked Guerrero's presence in their clubhouse last year, and he hit .290. But Guerrero didn't hit with a lot of power, and because he played in that spot daily, it meant that Matt Wieters couldn't be used at DH on his days away from catching. It meant that Nick Markakis couldn't get more semi-days off through the use of the DH.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Yu Darvish negotiations are nearing the deadline. A deal will happen; it's worth remembering that Darvish's former team now benefits from the departure of the pitcher, because of the $51.7 million price tag.

2. The Arizona Diamondbacks thought they had a deal with Bartolo Colon, but the right-hander wound up taking a one-year contract with the Oakland Athletics. Now the Diamondbacks are looking for a starter.

3. The Cincinnati Reds had about $2 million to spend in their search for an outfielder, and they spent it locking up Ryan Ludwick, who might benefit from a move to the hitters' park in Cincinnati.

4. Vicente Padilla agreed to terms with the Boston Red Sox. A nice gamble: Big arm -- he still throws 94-95 mph -- and low cost, and if he does something to anger other players, Boston can dump him.

5. The Minnesota Twins signed Joel Zumaya; as mentioned within this piece, Minnesota's payroll is around $98 million.

6. The Milwaukee Brewers are facing a deadline.

7. The Chicago Cubs have budget constraints, writes Gordon Wittenmyer. From the story:


  • For instance, a big-market team that just committed $3.5 million a year to a newly created position of president of baseball operations, that created several other high-level front-office jobs and that's assured of trimming tens of millions of dollars from its big-league payroll this season is pulling a Marge Schott on its scouting staff this week to save relative pennies.
    Borrowing a page from the notoriously cheap former Cincinnati Reds owner, the Cubs assigned their scouts two-to-a-room hotel accommodations this week and advised using the L instead of cabs, including to and from airports with their luggage, sources said.

    And how did the Kerry Wood signing last week reach such a point of contentiousness? What took so long for the Cubs to agree to a deal that ended up costing them $3 million for one year, plus a club option, especially when Wood made it clear he wasn't interested in going anywhere else?
8. The Indians are facing some arbitration challenges, writes Paul Hoynes.

9. The Rockies got a couple of pitchers for Seth Smith.

10. Jamie Moyer has an offer from the Rockies.

11. Smith will get a chance to play a lot with Oakland, writes John Shea.

12. Joel Hanrahan agreed to terms, and so did Charlie Morton.

13. The Royals signed a couple of guys to one-year deals.

14. Ryan Lavarnway could hit it big this year, writes Nick Cafardo.

15. Jacoby Ellsbury is in line for a healthy raise.

16. Josh Hamilton's father-in-law turned down the Texas offer.

17. The Orioles have hired Rick Peterson, writes Dan Connolly.

18. The O's have some interest in Francisco Cordero.

19. The Rays worked out a deal with J.P. Howell, as Marc Topkin writes.

20. Angel Pagan worked out a deal with the Giants.

NL West position rankings.

Spoiler [+]
Catcher
1. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
2. Buster Posey, Giants
3. Nick Hundley, Padres
4. Ramon Hernandez, Rockies
5. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers

Until Posey shows he's healed from his devastating injury, Montero has to be considered the clear No. 1. And it's not like he's undeserving: He made his first All-Star appearance last season and has enough bat to hit cleanup on a division-winning team; he also threw out a league-leading 40 percent of base stealers and probably should have won the Gold Glove. Hundley put up an impressive .288/.347/.477 line in San Diego that gave him a higher OPS+ than Montero, but he did that in a part-time role.

First base
1. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
2. Yonder Alonso, Padres
3. Todd Helton, Rockies
4. James Loney, Dodgers
5. Aubrey Huff, Giants

You can slice and dice these five guys anyway you want. I like Goldschmidt's power potential, and he showed improvement in plate discipline in the minors (drawing 82 walks in 103 games in Double-A in 2011). He held his own in the majors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 30 home runs. I'll rate Alonso over Helton primarily because of Helton's health concerns. Loney at least plays every day (he's missed just 10 games in the past four seasons), but I'm not sure that's a good thing for the Dodgers. Huff has now been terrible two years out of three. I wonder whether we'll end up seeing a lot of Brandon Belt here.

Second base
1. Freddy Sanchez, Giants
2. Orlando Hudson, Padres
3. Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks
4. Mark Ellis, Dodgers
5. Chris Nelson, Rockies

Disagree with this order? I can't say I'd have the energy to fight you on that.

Third base
1. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
2. Chase Headley, Padres
3. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
4. Juan Uribe/Jerry Hairston, Dodgers
5. Casey Blake, Rockies

Sandoval became one of the best players in the league in 2011, as he hit for average and power and played surprisingly well at third. His conditioning always will be a concern, of course, but if he can put up the numbers he did last season over 155 games instead of 117, he could be a sleeper MVP candidate. Headley hit just four home runs in 381 at-bats in 2011, but his on-base ability (.374) still made him a more productive hitter than Roberts, who hit 19 home runs but with a .341 OBP. If those two changed parks, you'd see a big difference in each player's stat line. The Dodgers have Uribe, Hairston and Adam Kennedy fighting for playing time at third base, which isn't exactly like Ron Cey pushing Steve Garvey over to first base. Blake is a placeholder until prospect stud Nolan Arenado is ready, which could be as soon as midseason.

Shortstop
1. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
2. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
3. Dee Gordon, Dodgers
4. Jason Bartlett, Padres
5. Brandon Crawford, Giants

Umm, let's just say we're starting to see why Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young Award. Not a lot of offense in this division. I do love the excitement Gordon brings to the field, but he's going to have to learn to draw a few walks to make him a valuable offensive player. Man cannot leave on speed alone. The Giants appear willing to give Crawford a chance, but he can't hit, so will have to be a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop to hold on to the job.

Left field
1. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
2. Carlos Quentin, Padres
3. Jason Kubel/Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks
4. Melky Cabrera, Giants
5. Juan Rivera/Tony Gwynn Jr., Dodgers

It's possible that Gonzalez will end up in right with Michael Cuddyer in left because Gonzalez has the stronger arm, but we'll line it up this way for now. I actually like the Quentin acquisition for the Padres, as they were obviously desperate for somebody who could launch a few over the wall. We'll see how Quentin's power numbers translate from The Cell (one of the best home run parks in the majors) to Petco (the worst home run park in the majors). The Kubel signing was a strange one by Arizona, as he's a defensive liability and Parra was coming off an impressive season. Cabrera had a career year for the Royals (.305/.339/.470, 18 home runs, 44 doubles), but I'm having trouble getting over the five previous seasons of mediocrity.

Center field
1. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
2. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
3. Cameron Maybin, Padres
4. Dexter Fowler, Rockies
5. Angel Pagan, Giants

Kemp should have been the NL MVP after his monster season, leading the NL in home runs, RBIs and runs scored while hitting .324 and stealing 40 bases. According to Baseball-Reference WAR, it was the best season by a major league outfielder not named Bonds since Sammy Sosa in 2001, and the best by an outfielder not named Bonds or Sosa since Rickey Henderson scored a similar 10.0 WAR in 1990. Young and Maybin are both gifted center fielders with some holes in their swings, but Young drew 80 walks to Maybin's 44 and had a 61-41 edge in extra-base hits. We keep waiting for Fowler to have a breakthrough season, but he'll now be 26 with three seasons under his belt. He's not a bad player, but I think we can cross star potential off his résumé.

Right field
1. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
2. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
3. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
4. Brandon Belt, Giants
5. Will Venable, Padres

Wait ... Ethier won a Gold Glove? How did that happen? Ethier had the 30-game hitting streak early last season but then tried to play through a knee injury before finally shutting down in early September. His power numbers took a big hit from previous years, but he should bounce back. Just don't take that Gold Glove seriously; he's not a great right fielder and probably not even a good one. But neither is Cuddyer or Belt. I still believe in Belt and wouldn't be surprised to see him produce a .270/.370/.470 line. If he moves to first base, Nate Schierholtz is a capable right fielder coming off his best season. Venable is a platoon player who can actually hit a little, not that anybody puts up big numbers in Petco.

No. 1 starter
1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks
4. Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
5. Tim Stauffer, Padres

I love Chacin, but this is a tough field. Some folks are a down a bit on Lincecum, whose strikeout rate has dropped from 10.5 in 2008 to a career-low 9.1 in 2011. Meanwhile, his walk rate spiked up to its highest rate since his rookie season. Still, that K rate was fifth-best in the NL, and he finished fifth in the NL in ERA. Lincecum's average fastball velocity actually increased from 2010 (when he suddenly lost it for a month in August), so I'm not too worried. He's such a unique pitcher that any sort of traditional analysis might not apply to him. Kennedy finished fourth in the Cy Young vote after going 21-4, 2.88, and there was nothing fluky about his season. He pounds the strike zone with a fastball that isn't overpowering. He isn't afraid to throw it up in the strike zone, and with Young, Parra and Upton behind him in the outfield, he thrived. Chacin needs to cut his walk rate (he led the NL with 87 walks) to leap to star status.

No. 2 starter
1. Matt Cain, Giants
2. Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
3. Cory Luebke, Padres
4. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
5. Jason Hammel, Rockies

Don't skip over Luebke too quickly: He had an unheralded season pitching out of the bullpen, then made 17 starts. He struck out 154 in 139.2 innings, and his K rate was the same while starting as it was in relief. He also posted a 2.55 ERA on the road, so I don't see any Petco illusions going on here. Billingsley had a disappointing season, as his ERA shot up to 4.21 and his WHIP to 1.45. He still struggles against lefties (.382 OBP allowed) and even if he bounces back, I like the other three better. The Rockies are counting on Jorge De La Rosa to return from Tommy John surgery in late May or June, but for now, Hammel slots in as the No. 2.

No. 3 starter
1. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
2. Trevor Cahill, Diamondbacks
3. Ted Lilly, Dodgers
4. Clayton Richard, Padres
5. Kevin Slowey, Rockies

Bumgarner could be a sleeper Cy Young candidate this season if he takes another step forward. He had an outstanding 4.15 strikeout/walk ratio, 10th-best among major league starters, and he got better as the season went along, posting a 2.52 ERA in the second half. Oh, and he's just 22.

No. 4 starter
1. Chris Capuano, Dodgers
2. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants
3. Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks
4. Alex White/Drew Pomeranz, Rockies
5. Edinson Volquez, Padres

White, one of the arms acquired in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, is a power righty, but I'm skeptical after his dismal late-season showing in 2011 (12 home runs in 36.1 innings with Colorado). I'm more optimistic about Pomeranz, the lefty acquired in that trade. Vogelsong and Collmenter were two of the biggest surprises of the 2011 season; we'll see whether they can repeat. I'll be cautious and rank Capuano No. 1. He had a 4.55 ERA with the Mets but excellent peripheral numbers. Volquez was good back in 2008. That's starting to seem like a long time ago.

No. 5 starter
1. Aaron Harang, Dodgers
2. Wade Miley/Trevor Bauer, Diamondbacks
3. Dustin Moseley, Padres
4. Juan Nicasio/Tyler Chatwood, Rockies
5. Barry Zito, Giants

Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, has the most potential of anyone on this list. He has the polish to break camp with the D-backs and provide solid numbers at the back of the rotation. Nicasio is trying to return after the scary injury last season when he was struck in the neck by a line drive and broke his C1 vertebra, which required doctors putting in a metal plate to stabilize the neck. His career was obviously in jeopardy, but he was recently cleared to throw to hitters. Let's root for his return.

Closer
1. Brian Wilson, Giants
2. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks
3. Rafael Betancourt, Rockies
4. Huston Street, Padres
5. Javy Guerra, Dodgers

These guys are all pretty good, so no insult intended. The interesting situation is if the Dodgers hand over the closer job to the dominating Kenley Jansen. His K rate of 16.1 whiffs per nine innings was the highest in major league history for a pitcher with at least 50 innings. He held batters to a .159 average. If he replaces Guerra, I think he has to move to No. 1 on this list.

Bullpen
1. Giants -- Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler
2. Diamondbacks -- David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw, Takashi Saito, Craig Breslow, Brad Ziegler
3. Dodgers -- Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Scott Elbert, Mike MacDougal, Blake Hawksworth
4. Padres -- Luke Gregerson, Ernesto Frieri, Andrew Cashner, Joe Thatcher, Anthony Bass
5. Rockies -- Matt Belisle, Rex Brothers, Matt Reynolds, Matt Lindstrom, Edgmer Escalona

To be honest, there isn't a big difference between these 'pens. The Giants would appear to have the most depth, although they do lose Ramon Ramirez after his trade to the Mets. That merely moves up the awesome Sergio Romo into the primary setup role. This is a guy who had 70 strikeouts and just five walks, yet was used as a ROOGY with just 48 innings in 65 games. The Dodgers have a nice 1-2 with Jansen and Guerrier, but might lack depth. The Padres have some young power arms in Cashner, Frieri, Bass and Brad Brach that give them intriguing depth and potential.

Intangibles
1. Diamondbacks
2. Giants
3. Padres
4. Rockies
5. Dodgers

Kirk Gibson got the most of his club in 2011, and there's no reason not to expect the same attitude and effort in 2012. The D-backs have depth in guys like Parra and Willie Bloomquist, plus a young arm in Bauer who could be a huge lift. The Giants will get Posey back, and while their offense doesn't appear great, guys like Cabrera, Pagan and an improved Belt could provide big upgrades over 2011. I get the feeling those Arizona-San Francisco games will be a little more heated this year. The Padres will have no expectations, which I think can be a good thing, and I like the moves they've made. The Rockies could have a mess of a rotation; you never how those young arms will develop. The Dodgers? Kemp, Kershaw and a lot of overpaid veterans doesn't seem like the best of mixes.

The final tally
(Five points for first, four for second, etc.)

1. Diamondbacks, 63 points
2. Giants, 54 points
3. Dodgers, 44 points
4. Padres, 42 points
5. Rockies, 37 points

I thought the rankings would end up more closely grouped together, especially since the NL West has been the toughest division to predict in recent years. Just a year ago, for example, a lot of analysts were high on the Rockies. A year later, they have Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and a whole bunch of question marks. Arizona rates as the favorite largely based on the belief that it has no outstanding weaknesses, but by no means would I suggest they are the heavy favorite over the Giants. And there's part of me that wouldn't be surprised to see the Padres make a big improvement from 2011. One thing is certain: It's going to be another wild West race.

Pirates James Taillon makes successful debut.

Spoiler [+]
By any statistical measure, Pirates pitching phenom Jameson Taillon‘s 2011 was a success. Strong strikeout rates, low walk rates and less than a hit per inning leaves both Pittsburgh and prospect fans in general excited about his developing into the organization’s first top flight starter since Doug Drabek nearly two decades ago (Gerrit Cole has some say in this as well).

Did Taillon impress in person? Most definitely, but the young right-hander scouted quite differently than the numbers indicate. Taillon was actually quite raw and requires considerable refinement even though the numbers say otherwise.

In terms of size and physical development, Jameson Taillon is about as perfect a specimen as one could hope to find. Projecting for both power and durability, it’s easy to envision Taillon averaging 200 innings pitched per season in much more than the generic “workhorse
 
Bryce Harper could rise quickly.
Spoiler [+]
If Bryce Harper was like a lot of 18-year-olds last March, he might have been thinking about his last days of high school and his senior prom date. Instead, he was in big-league camp with the Washington Nationals. His parents were in Florida to see him compete against professionals a decade older rather than attending a graduation.

This is where they bumped into Davey Johnson, who was a special assistant for the Nationals at that time but was soon to become manager. And Johnson offered a prediction. "I told them that he would get at-bats in the big leagues when he was 19 years old," Johnson recalled last week, over the phone. "He's that good."

Johnson's credentials for projecting the capabilities of young talent are impeccable. In 1984, he lobbied for the Mets to promote a 19-year-old who had never pitched above Class A to the big leagues, and that summer, Dwight Gooden struck out 276 batters before he turned 20.

Because of Johnson's role in the ascension of Gooden, any conversation about Harper naturally turns to the former Mets' right-hander, and Johnson does not run from the comparison; rather, he embraces it.

To be convinced that Gooden could make the jump to the big leagues, Johnson recalled, he had to see that the pitcher's skills had rounded out. He had to know that Gooden could throw his secondary pitches for strikes, so that he wouldn't be wholly reliant on his fastball. "If a pitcher has big-league stuff and can command," Johnson said, "he can pitch at any level."

In the same way, Johnson said, there are two things he has wanted to see in Harper, as he and the Nationals begin to evaluate the question of whether the young slugger will start the year in the big leagues. "No. 1 -- does he know the strike zone?" Johnson said. "Some hitters -- some young hitters -- will expand the zone and chase pitches, especially when they start to struggle. I think he knows the strike zone."

Last summer, while playing in Class A and AA, Harper drew a more than respectable 59 walks in 109 games, and while he initially struggled in Class AA, Johnson believes this was partly a case of a young player getting caught up in trying to live up to the advance notices. Once Harper settled in, Johnson says, he was much better.

The second skill that Johnson has wanted to see in Harper is the ability to adjust to a breaking ball. "He uses the whole field," said Johnson. "If he can do that -- well, that's tantamount."

Because inevitably, if Harper mashed fastballs, then opposing pitchers would throw him a whole bunch of offspeed stuff -- sliders, curveballs, splitters. Call it the Wily Mo treatment.

Johnson believed Harper could adapt even before Harper opened in the Arizona Fall League, which he dominated, hitting .333, posting an OPS of over 1.000, with an on-base percentage of .400.

Johnson, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo and others will watch Harper in spring training this year and decide whether to have him open the year in the big leagues. If he needs a little more time in the minors to be ready, that's the route they'll go.

ny_a_strawberry_gooden_b1_288.jpg

AP Photo/Richard DrewStraw and Doc in 1984.

But Harper is a left-handed hitter and Johnson sees the Nationals as being right-handed heavy, and there is an open spot in the Washington outfield. "We basically had no left-handed presence last year," Johnson said. Remember this, too: Johnson loves young players, loves the energy they bring. He will invest time in an inexperienced player with game-changing talent even if it means some ugly early days, because those will lead to the great days.

"I really like his parents," said Johnson. "He's well-grounded and well-adjusted, and he rises to the occasion. He's a tough kid, and he likes the challenge. I would love to see someone who could sting the ball from the left side make my ballclub. That's what spring training is all about."

Because of Johnson's role with the memorable Mets of the mid-80s, any conversation about Harper naturally turns to a big left-handed slugger who could sting the ball -- Darryl Strawberry. Johnson does not run from that comparison either; again, he embraces it. "He's got more drive and more ambition to succeed that Straw did," Johnson said. "Straw got better, but this kid is going to push himself to really improve. This kid is driven."

You hang up the phone and you are convinced that Johnson's prediction that Harper's first at-bats will take place in the big leagues at age 19, and they will happen very, very early in the season.

---

The Nationals signed Gio Gonzalez, and this is what it could mean for Jordan Zimmermann, writes Adam Kilgore. The Nats agreed to terms with Jesus Flores.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
Prince Fielder has made it clear he wants to be with the Texas Rangers, writes Evan Grant.

• There are a half-dozen veteran free agents who would best be classified as designated hitters at this stage in their respective careers, from Hideki Matsui to Vladimir Guerrero to Johnny Damon to Manny Ramirez. But the position of DH is going through an evolution in the sport, with most AL teams preferring to use the spot for positional flexibility, rather than devoting all of the at-bats and a whole lot of money to just one player (David Ortiz and Travis Hafner are notable exceptions).

The New York Yankees, for example, may decide in the end to devote a lot of the DH at-bats to Eduardo Nunez -- but not necessarily with Nunez getting the at-bats at DH. They could give Alex Rodriguez 25 to 40 games at DH to help keep him healthy, with Nunez starting at third, and Derek Jeter could get some games at DH, with Nunez starting at shortstop. The Baltimore Orioles really liked Guerrero's presence in their clubhouse last year, and he hit .290. But Guerrero didn't hit with a lot of power, and because he played in that spot daily, it meant that Matt Wieters couldn't be used at DH on his days away from catching. It meant that Nick Markakis couldn't get more semi-days off through the use of the DH.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Yu Darvish negotiations are nearing the deadline. A deal will happen; it's worth remembering that Darvish's former team now benefits from the departure of the pitcher, because of the $51.7 million price tag.

2. The Arizona Diamondbacks thought they had a deal with Bartolo Colon, but the right-hander wound up taking a one-year contract with the Oakland Athletics. Now the Diamondbacks are looking for a starter.

3. The Cincinnati Reds had about $2 million to spend in their search for an outfielder, and they spent it locking up Ryan Ludwick, who might benefit from a move to the hitters' park in Cincinnati.

4. Vicente Padilla agreed to terms with the Boston Red Sox. A nice gamble: Big arm -- he still throws 94-95 mph -- and low cost, and if he does something to anger other players, Boston can dump him.

5. The Minnesota Twins signed Joel Zumaya; as mentioned within this piece, Minnesota's payroll is around $98 million.

6. The Milwaukee Brewers are facing a deadline.

7. The Chicago Cubs have budget constraints, writes Gordon Wittenmyer. From the story:


  • For instance, a big-market team that just committed $3.5 million a year to a newly created position of president of baseball operations, that created several other high-level front-office jobs and that's assured of trimming tens of millions of dollars from its big-league payroll this season is pulling a Marge Schott on its scouting staff this week to save relative pennies.
    Borrowing a page from the notoriously cheap former Cincinnati Reds owner, the Cubs assigned their scouts two-to-a-room hotel accommodations this week and advised using the L instead of cabs, including to and from airports with their luggage, sources said.

    And how did the Kerry Wood signing last week reach such a point of contentiousness? What took so long for the Cubs to agree to a deal that ended up costing them $3 million for one year, plus a club option, especially when Wood made it clear he wasn't interested in going anywhere else?
8. The Indians are facing some arbitration challenges, writes Paul Hoynes.

9. The Rockies got a couple of pitchers for Seth Smith.

10. Jamie Moyer has an offer from the Rockies.

11. Smith will get a chance to play a lot with Oakland, writes John Shea.

12. Joel Hanrahan agreed to terms, and so did Charlie Morton.

13. The Royals signed a couple of guys to one-year deals.

14. Ryan Lavarnway could hit it big this year, writes Nick Cafardo.

15. Jacoby Ellsbury is in line for a healthy raise.

16. Josh Hamilton's father-in-law turned down the Texas offer.

17. The Orioles have hired Rick Peterson, writes Dan Connolly.

18. The O's have some interest in Francisco Cordero.

19. The Rays worked out a deal with J.P. Howell, as Marc Topkin writes.

20. Angel Pagan worked out a deal with the Giants.

NL West position rankings.

Spoiler [+]
Catcher
1. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
2. Buster Posey, Giants
3. Nick Hundley, Padres
4. Ramon Hernandez, Rockies
5. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers

Until Posey shows he's healed from his devastating injury, Montero has to be considered the clear No. 1. And it's not like he's undeserving: He made his first All-Star appearance last season and has enough bat to hit cleanup on a division-winning team; he also threw out a league-leading 40 percent of base stealers and probably should have won the Gold Glove. Hundley put up an impressive .288/.347/.477 line in San Diego that gave him a higher OPS+ than Montero, but he did that in a part-time role.

First base
1. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
2. Yonder Alonso, Padres
3. Todd Helton, Rockies
4. James Loney, Dodgers
5. Aubrey Huff, Giants

You can slice and dice these five guys anyway you want. I like Goldschmidt's power potential, and he showed improvement in plate discipline in the minors (drawing 82 walks in 103 games in Double-A in 2011). He held his own in the majors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 30 home runs. I'll rate Alonso over Helton primarily because of Helton's health concerns. Loney at least plays every day (he's missed just 10 games in the past four seasons), but I'm not sure that's a good thing for the Dodgers. Huff has now been terrible two years out of three. I wonder whether we'll end up seeing a lot of Brandon Belt here.

Second base
1. Freddy Sanchez, Giants
2. Orlando Hudson, Padres
3. Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks
4. Mark Ellis, Dodgers
5. Chris Nelson, Rockies

Disagree with this order? I can't say I'd have the energy to fight you on that.

Third base
1. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
2. Chase Headley, Padres
3. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
4. Juan Uribe/Jerry Hairston, Dodgers
5. Casey Blake, Rockies

Sandoval became one of the best players in the league in 2011, as he hit for average and power and played surprisingly well at third. His conditioning always will be a concern, of course, but if he can put up the numbers he did last season over 155 games instead of 117, he could be a sleeper MVP candidate. Headley hit just four home runs in 381 at-bats in 2011, but his on-base ability (.374) still made him a more productive hitter than Roberts, who hit 19 home runs but with a .341 OBP. If those two changed parks, you'd see a big difference in each player's stat line. The Dodgers have Uribe, Hairston and Adam Kennedy fighting for playing time at third base, which isn't exactly like Ron Cey pushing Steve Garvey over to first base. Blake is a placeholder until prospect stud Nolan Arenado is ready, which could be as soon as midseason.

Shortstop
1. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
2. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
3. Dee Gordon, Dodgers
4. Jason Bartlett, Padres
5. Brandon Crawford, Giants

Umm, let's just say we're starting to see why Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young Award. Not a lot of offense in this division. I do love the excitement Gordon brings to the field, but he's going to have to learn to draw a few walks to make him a valuable offensive player. Man cannot leave on speed alone. The Giants appear willing to give Crawford a chance, but he can't hit, so will have to be a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop to hold on to the job.

Left field
1. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
2. Carlos Quentin, Padres
3. Jason Kubel/Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks
4. Melky Cabrera, Giants
5. Juan Rivera/Tony Gwynn Jr., Dodgers

It's possible that Gonzalez will end up in right with Michael Cuddyer in left because Gonzalez has the stronger arm, but we'll line it up this way for now. I actually like the Quentin acquisition for the Padres, as they were obviously desperate for somebody who could launch a few over the wall. We'll see how Quentin's power numbers translate from The Cell (one of the best home run parks in the majors) to Petco (the worst home run park in the majors). The Kubel signing was a strange one by Arizona, as he's a defensive liability and Parra was coming off an impressive season. Cabrera had a career year for the Royals (.305/.339/.470, 18 home runs, 44 doubles), but I'm having trouble getting over the five previous seasons of mediocrity.

Center field
1. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
2. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
3. Cameron Maybin, Padres
4. Dexter Fowler, Rockies
5. Angel Pagan, Giants

Kemp should have been the NL MVP after his monster season, leading the NL in home runs, RBIs and runs scored while hitting .324 and stealing 40 bases. According to Baseball-Reference WAR, it was the best season by a major league outfielder not named Bonds since Sammy Sosa in 2001, and the best by an outfielder not named Bonds or Sosa since Rickey Henderson scored a similar 10.0 WAR in 1990. Young and Maybin are both gifted center fielders with some holes in their swings, but Young drew 80 walks to Maybin's 44 and had a 61-41 edge in extra-base hits. We keep waiting for Fowler to have a breakthrough season, but he'll now be 26 with three seasons under his belt. He's not a bad player, but I think we can cross star potential off his résumé.

Right field
1. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
2. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
3. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
4. Brandon Belt, Giants
5. Will Venable, Padres

Wait ... Ethier won a Gold Glove? How did that happen? Ethier had the 30-game hitting streak early last season but then tried to play through a knee injury before finally shutting down in early September. His power numbers took a big hit from previous years, but he should bounce back. Just don't take that Gold Glove seriously; he's not a great right fielder and probably not even a good one. But neither is Cuddyer or Belt. I still believe in Belt and wouldn't be surprised to see him produce a .270/.370/.470 line. If he moves to first base, Nate Schierholtz is a capable right fielder coming off his best season. Venable is a platoon player who can actually hit a little, not that anybody puts up big numbers in Petco.

No. 1 starter
1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants
3. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks
4. Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
5. Tim Stauffer, Padres

I love Chacin, but this is a tough field. Some folks are a down a bit on Lincecum, whose strikeout rate has dropped from 10.5 in 2008 to a career-low 9.1 in 2011. Meanwhile, his walk rate spiked up to its highest rate since his rookie season. Still, that K rate was fifth-best in the NL, and he finished fifth in the NL in ERA. Lincecum's average fastball velocity actually increased from 2010 (when he suddenly lost it for a month in August), so I'm not too worried. He's such a unique pitcher that any sort of traditional analysis might not apply to him. Kennedy finished fourth in the Cy Young vote after going 21-4, 2.88, and there was nothing fluky about his season. He pounds the strike zone with a fastball that isn't overpowering. He isn't afraid to throw it up in the strike zone, and with Young, Parra and Upton behind him in the outfield, he thrived. Chacin needs to cut his walk rate (he led the NL with 87 walks) to leap to star status.

No. 2 starter
1. Matt Cain, Giants
2. Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
3. Cory Luebke, Padres
4. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
5. Jason Hammel, Rockies

Don't skip over Luebke too quickly: He had an unheralded season pitching out of the bullpen, then made 17 starts. He struck out 154 in 139.2 innings, and his K rate was the same while starting as it was in relief. He also posted a 2.55 ERA on the road, so I don't see any Petco illusions going on here. Billingsley had a disappointing season, as his ERA shot up to 4.21 and his WHIP to 1.45. He still struggles against lefties (.382 OBP allowed) and even if he bounces back, I like the other three better. The Rockies are counting on Jorge De La Rosa to return from Tommy John surgery in late May or June, but for now, Hammel slots in as the No. 2.

No. 3 starter
1. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
2. Trevor Cahill, Diamondbacks
3. Ted Lilly, Dodgers
4. Clayton Richard, Padres
5. Kevin Slowey, Rockies

Bumgarner could be a sleeper Cy Young candidate this season if he takes another step forward. He had an outstanding 4.15 strikeout/walk ratio, 10th-best among major league starters, and he got better as the season went along, posting a 2.52 ERA in the second half. Oh, and he's just 22.

No. 4 starter
1. Chris Capuano, Dodgers
2. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants
3. Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks
4. Alex White/Drew Pomeranz, Rockies
5. Edinson Volquez, Padres

White, one of the arms acquired in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, is a power righty, but I'm skeptical after his dismal late-season showing in 2011 (12 home runs in 36.1 innings with Colorado). I'm more optimistic about Pomeranz, the lefty acquired in that trade. Vogelsong and Collmenter were two of the biggest surprises of the 2011 season; we'll see whether they can repeat. I'll be cautious and rank Capuano No. 1. He had a 4.55 ERA with the Mets but excellent peripheral numbers. Volquez was good back in 2008. That's starting to seem like a long time ago.

No. 5 starter
1. Aaron Harang, Dodgers
2. Wade Miley/Trevor Bauer, Diamondbacks
3. Dustin Moseley, Padres
4. Juan Nicasio/Tyler Chatwood, Rockies
5. Barry Zito, Giants

Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, has the most potential of anyone on this list. He has the polish to break camp with the D-backs and provide solid numbers at the back of the rotation. Nicasio is trying to return after the scary injury last season when he was struck in the neck by a line drive and broke his C1 vertebra, which required doctors putting in a metal plate to stabilize the neck. His career was obviously in jeopardy, but he was recently cleared to throw to hitters. Let's root for his return.

Closer
1. Brian Wilson, Giants
2. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks
3. Rafael Betancourt, Rockies
4. Huston Street, Padres
5. Javy Guerra, Dodgers

These guys are all pretty good, so no insult intended. The interesting situation is if the Dodgers hand over the closer job to the dominating Kenley Jansen. His K rate of 16.1 whiffs per nine innings was the highest in major league history for a pitcher with at least 50 innings. He held batters to a .159 average. If he replaces Guerra, I think he has to move to No. 1 on this list.

Bullpen
1. Giants -- Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler
2. Diamondbacks -- David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw, Takashi Saito, Craig Breslow, Brad Ziegler
3. Dodgers -- Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Scott Elbert, Mike MacDougal, Blake Hawksworth
4. Padres -- Luke Gregerson, Ernesto Frieri, Andrew Cashner, Joe Thatcher, Anthony Bass
5. Rockies -- Matt Belisle, Rex Brothers, Matt Reynolds, Matt Lindstrom, Edgmer Escalona

To be honest, there isn't a big difference between these 'pens. The Giants would appear to have the most depth, although they do lose Ramon Ramirez after his trade to the Mets. That merely moves up the awesome Sergio Romo into the primary setup role. This is a guy who had 70 strikeouts and just five walks, yet was used as a ROOGY with just 48 innings in 65 games. The Dodgers have a nice 1-2 with Jansen and Guerrier, but might lack depth. The Padres have some young power arms in Cashner, Frieri, Bass and Brad Brach that give them intriguing depth and potential.

Intangibles
1. Diamondbacks
2. Giants
3. Padres
4. Rockies
5. Dodgers

Kirk Gibson got the most of his club in 2011, and there's no reason not to expect the same attitude and effort in 2012. The D-backs have depth in guys like Parra and Willie Bloomquist, plus a young arm in Bauer who could be a huge lift. The Giants will get Posey back, and while their offense doesn't appear great, guys like Cabrera, Pagan and an improved Belt could provide big upgrades over 2011. I get the feeling those Arizona-San Francisco games will be a little more heated this year. The Padres will have no expectations, which I think can be a good thing, and I like the moves they've made. The Rockies could have a mess of a rotation; you never how those young arms will develop. The Dodgers? Kemp, Kershaw and a lot of overpaid veterans doesn't seem like the best of mixes.

The final tally
(Five points for first, four for second, etc.)

1. Diamondbacks, 63 points
2. Giants, 54 points
3. Dodgers, 44 points
4. Padres, 42 points
5. Rockies, 37 points

I thought the rankings would end up more closely grouped together, especially since the NL West has been the toughest division to predict in recent years. Just a year ago, for example, a lot of analysts were high on the Rockies. A year later, they have Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and a whole bunch of question marks. Arizona rates as the favorite largely based on the belief that it has no outstanding weaknesses, but by no means would I suggest they are the heavy favorite over the Giants. And there's part of me that wouldn't be surprised to see the Padres make a big improvement from 2011. One thing is certain: It's going to be another wild West race.

Pirates James Taillon makes successful debut.

Spoiler [+]
By any statistical measure, Pirates pitching phenom Jameson Taillon‘s 2011 was a success. Strong strikeout rates, low walk rates and less than a hit per inning leaves both Pittsburgh and prospect fans in general excited about his developing into the organization’s first top flight starter since Doug Drabek nearly two decades ago (Gerrit Cole has some say in this as well).

Did Taillon impress in person? Most definitely, but the young right-hander scouted quite differently than the numbers indicate. Taillon was actually quite raw and requires considerable refinement even though the numbers say otherwise.

In terms of size and physical development, Jameson Taillon is about as perfect a specimen as one could hope to find. Projecting for both power and durability, it’s easy to envision Taillon averaging 200 innings pitched per season in much more than the generic “workhorse
 
Reds add Ludwick, much needed outfield depth.
Spoiler [+]
The Reds have made it very clear that they’re going all-in this offseason, presumably in an effort to maximize their chances of winning a title before Joey Votto qualifies for free agency after the 2013 season. GM Walt Jocketty opened up the prospect vault to acquire Mat Latos and Sean Marshall, then landed what could potentially be the bargain of the offseason by signing Ryan Madson to a sweetheart one-year contract. Those moves all improve the team, but at the same time the club sacrificed outfield depth.

Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are locked into the center and right field jobs, and Chris Heisey made a pretty good case for the left field gig by slugging 18 homers with a .233 ISO in 308 plate appearances last year. In 534 plate appearances over the last two seasons, he’s hit 26 balls out of the park. Beyond those three, the only other outfielder on the team’s 40-man roster is Denis Phipps, a 25-year-old that posted a .346/.397/.527 batting line between Double and Triple-A in 2011 after hitting just .250/.307/.377 in his previous 2,319 minor league plate appearances. The trades of Dave Sappelt (for Marshall) and nominal outfielder Yonder Alonso (for Latos) along with the free agent departures of Fred Lewis and Jonny Gomes have left the club thin at the position(s).

That’s where Ryan Ludwick fits in. Cincinnati reeled him in with a one-year contract worth $2.5 million yesterday, a deal that includes $500,000 in incentives and a generally useless mutual option for 2013. Jocketty knows Ludwick from his time with the Cardinals, but he was already with the Reds when the outfielder had his career year in 2008 (.406 wOBA and 5.6 WAR). It’s been a slow and steady downhill trend for Ludwick since then, specifically in the power department…

1260_OF_season_mini_6_20110928.png


The elephant in the room here is Petco Park, which Ludwick called home from July 31st, 2010 to July 31st, 2011. Although the building is much kinder to right-handers (according to StatCorner’s park factors), Ludwick hit just .228/.301/.358 in 659 plate appearances with the Padres, and was just as bad away from Petco: .248/.308/.360. Including his short and unproductive stint with the Pirates last year (.298 wOBA), Ludwick has produced a .319 wOBA and a perfectly average 100 wRC+ in the three years since his monster campaign.

Average isn’t a bad thing, and Ludwick does have some strengths. He’d consistently hit right-handers better than left-handers prior to this past season (see graph), though Heisey has as well in a much smaller big league sample. UZR and DRS rate his defense as adequate in left, and he’s played in at least 135 games in each of the last four seasons. It’s worth noting that he has been on the disabled list once in each of the last three years due to a hamstring strain (2009), a calf strain (2010), and back spasms (2011). None of those were major, long-term problems however.

The Reds only had so much money left to spend this offseason, so Jocketty went with a player he was familiar with to shore up his outfield situation. The Great American Ballpark is very, very friendly to right-handed power hitters (133 HR park factor per StatCorner), which should help Ludwick find some of that lost power. Bill James projects a .323 wOBA with 15 homers in 400+ plate appearances next season, a performance the Reds would take in a heartbeat as long as it doesn’t cut into Heisey’s playing time.

Is Yoenis Cespedes a good fit for the Chicago Cubs?

Spoiler [+]
According to Diario Libre, the Chicago Cubs appear to be the leading in the chase to acquire Cuban defector and free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The intriguing center fielder spoke with the media on Monday night, sharing this unexpected tidbit:
“Of all the teams who have come, the most interested in me has been the Chicago Cubs,
 
Reds add Ludwick, much needed outfield depth.
Spoiler [+]
The Reds have made it very clear that they’re going all-in this offseason, presumably in an effort to maximize their chances of winning a title before Joey Votto qualifies for free agency after the 2013 season. GM Walt Jocketty opened up the prospect vault to acquire Mat Latos and Sean Marshall, then landed what could potentially be the bargain of the offseason by signing Ryan Madson to a sweetheart one-year contract. Those moves all improve the team, but at the same time the club sacrificed outfield depth.

Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are locked into the center and right field jobs, and Chris Heisey made a pretty good case for the left field gig by slugging 18 homers with a .233 ISO in 308 plate appearances last year. In 534 plate appearances over the last two seasons, he’s hit 26 balls out of the park. Beyond those three, the only other outfielder on the team’s 40-man roster is Denis Phipps, a 25-year-old that posted a .346/.397/.527 batting line between Double and Triple-A in 2011 after hitting just .250/.307/.377 in his previous 2,319 minor league plate appearances. The trades of Dave Sappelt (for Marshall) and nominal outfielder Yonder Alonso (for Latos) along with the free agent departures of Fred Lewis and Jonny Gomes have left the club thin at the position(s).

That’s where Ryan Ludwick fits in. Cincinnati reeled him in with a one-year contract worth $2.5 million yesterday, a deal that includes $500,000 in incentives and a generally useless mutual option for 2013. Jocketty knows Ludwick from his time with the Cardinals, but he was already with the Reds when the outfielder had his career year in 2008 (.406 wOBA and 5.6 WAR). It’s been a slow and steady downhill trend for Ludwick since then, specifically in the power department…

1260_OF_season_mini_6_20110928.png


The elephant in the room here is Petco Park, which Ludwick called home from July 31st, 2010 to July 31st, 2011. Although the building is much kinder to right-handers (according to StatCorner’s park factors), Ludwick hit just .228/.301/.358 in 659 plate appearances with the Padres, and was just as bad away from Petco: .248/.308/.360. Including his short and unproductive stint with the Pirates last year (.298 wOBA), Ludwick has produced a .319 wOBA and a perfectly average 100 wRC+ in the three years since his monster campaign.

Average isn’t a bad thing, and Ludwick does have some strengths. He’d consistently hit right-handers better than left-handers prior to this past season (see graph), though Heisey has as well in a much smaller big league sample. UZR and DRS rate his defense as adequate in left, and he’s played in at least 135 games in each of the last four seasons. It’s worth noting that he has been on the disabled list once in each of the last three years due to a hamstring strain (2009), a calf strain (2010), and back spasms (2011). None of those were major, long-term problems however.

The Reds only had so much money left to spend this offseason, so Jocketty went with a player he was familiar with to shore up his outfield situation. The Great American Ballpark is very, very friendly to right-handed power hitters (133 HR park factor per StatCorner), which should help Ludwick find some of that lost power. Bill James projects a .323 wOBA with 15 homers in 400+ plate appearances next season, a performance the Reds would take in a heartbeat as long as it doesn’t cut into Heisey’s playing time.

Is Yoenis Cespedes a good fit for the Chicago Cubs?

Spoiler [+]
According to Diario Libre, the Chicago Cubs appear to be the leading in the chase to acquire Cuban defector and free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The intriguing center fielder spoke with the media on Monday night, sharing this unexpected tidbit:
“Of all the teams who have come, the most interested in me has been the Chicago Cubs,
 
Victor Martinez tore his ACL, might be out for the season
eek.gif


Also, Carl Crawford had wrist surgery might be out for the start of the season.
 
Victor Martinez tore his ACL, might be out for the season
eek.gif


Also, Carl Crawford had wrist surgery might be out for the start of the season.
 
eek.gif


victor martinez .... what was he doin, playing winter ball ?

baseball cant start fast enough , sick of football
laugh.gif
 
eek.gif


victor martinez .... what was he doin, playing winter ball ?

baseball cant start fast enough , sick of football
laugh.gif
 
New Braves alternate jersey leaked don't like the cream color maybe if it was white i'd like it. i do like the number underneath the braves logo.

 
New Braves alternate jersey leaked don't like the cream color maybe if it was white i'd like it. i do like the number underneath the braves logo.

 
Lincecum
laugh.gif


SAN FRANCISCO -- Giants ace Tim Lincecum asked for $21.5 million in salary arbitration Tuesday and was offered $17 million by the club.

The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner's request neared the record amount sought in arbitration. Houston pitcher Roger Clemens asked for $22 million in 2005.

San Francisco's offer was the highest in arbitration history, topping the $14.25 million the New York Yankees proposed for shortstop Derek Jeter in 2001.

"I'm overall optimistic that we'll find common ground without a hearing room," Bobby Evans, Giants vice president of baseball operations, said before seeing Lincecum's filing numbers. "It's a process that begins long before today in terms of conversations about possible deals that work for both sides. That process has continued in a mutual fashion. At this point we haven't reached a conclusion."

Also Tuesday, the Giants and slugger Pablo Sandoval agreed on a $17.15 million, three-year contract. The 25-year-old third baseman became an All-Star last season after losing nearly 40 pounds during a rigorous offseason regimen. He batted .315 with 23 home runs and 70 RBIs in 2011.

Lincecum, the winning pitcher in the Game 5 World Series clincher at Texas in 2010, earned $13.1 million last season when he completed a two-year deal worth $23.2 million.

San Francisco's front office would like to lock up the 27-year-old Lincecum and fellow starter Matt Cain with long-term deals. Lincecum seems set on keeping his options open in the near future on a shorter contract.

"We know we'll at least have a one-year deal," Evans said. "I can't really predict where it will end up. In this process your two parties are always filing to try to come to a midpoint. The negotiation is really about the midpoint."

With Lincecum earning a hefty contract, Evans joked, "I usually leave off the final three zeroes because it's easier to calculate."

If the past is any indication, the sides will do their best to reach agreement before spring training and before an arbitration hearing.

In February 2010, Lincecum agreed to a $23 million, two-year contract ahead of the scheduled hearing. He had been set at that time to ask for $13 million.

That last contract was quite a raise for the undersized, hard-throwing pitcher his teammates call "Franchise" and "Freak" after he earned $650,000 in 2009.

"We're looking at different player contracts that give us an idea where we think Tim should be," Evans said. "There is not ever a player that's exactly like the one you have. Ultimately there is only one guy that looks just like him."

Lincecum -- the 10th overall draft pick out of Washington in 2006 -- has been an All-Star in each of the past four seasons. He went 13-14 with a 2.74 ERA last year for his first losing record. The Giants scored no runs while he was in the game in seven of 33 starts, had one run six times and two runs five times, according to STATS LLC.

Also Tuesday, the Giants reached one-year agreements to avoid arbitration with outfielders Melky Cabrera and Nate Schierholtz and reliever Santiago Casilla.

Cabrera agreed to a $6 million deal.

San Francisco, which sold out every game in 2011 but missed the playoffs, will have a payroll of around $130 million.

"Obviously the revenue that has been generated by our ownership and the support of our fans here makes the payroll level we have possible," Evans said. "We don't take that for granted. We know that with that kind of payroll comes responsibility and expectation."
 
Lincecum
laugh.gif


SAN FRANCISCO -- Giants ace Tim Lincecum asked for $21.5 million in salary arbitration Tuesday and was offered $17 million by the club.

The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner's request neared the record amount sought in arbitration. Houston pitcher Roger Clemens asked for $22 million in 2005.

San Francisco's offer was the highest in arbitration history, topping the $14.25 million the New York Yankees proposed for shortstop Derek Jeter in 2001.

"I'm overall optimistic that we'll find common ground without a hearing room," Bobby Evans, Giants vice president of baseball operations, said before seeing Lincecum's filing numbers. "It's a process that begins long before today in terms of conversations about possible deals that work for both sides. That process has continued in a mutual fashion. At this point we haven't reached a conclusion."

Also Tuesday, the Giants and slugger Pablo Sandoval agreed on a $17.15 million, three-year contract. The 25-year-old third baseman became an All-Star last season after losing nearly 40 pounds during a rigorous offseason regimen. He batted .315 with 23 home runs and 70 RBIs in 2011.

Lincecum, the winning pitcher in the Game 5 World Series clincher at Texas in 2010, earned $13.1 million last season when he completed a two-year deal worth $23.2 million.

San Francisco's front office would like to lock up the 27-year-old Lincecum and fellow starter Matt Cain with long-term deals. Lincecum seems set on keeping his options open in the near future on a shorter contract.

"We know we'll at least have a one-year deal," Evans said. "I can't really predict where it will end up. In this process your two parties are always filing to try to come to a midpoint. The negotiation is really about the midpoint."

With Lincecum earning a hefty contract, Evans joked, "I usually leave off the final three zeroes because it's easier to calculate."

If the past is any indication, the sides will do their best to reach agreement before spring training and before an arbitration hearing.

In February 2010, Lincecum agreed to a $23 million, two-year contract ahead of the scheduled hearing. He had been set at that time to ask for $13 million.

That last contract was quite a raise for the undersized, hard-throwing pitcher his teammates call "Franchise" and "Freak" after he earned $650,000 in 2009.

"We're looking at different player contracts that give us an idea where we think Tim should be," Evans said. "There is not ever a player that's exactly like the one you have. Ultimately there is only one guy that looks just like him."

Lincecum -- the 10th overall draft pick out of Washington in 2006 -- has been an All-Star in each of the past four seasons. He went 13-14 with a 2.74 ERA last year for his first losing record. The Giants scored no runs while he was in the game in seven of 33 starts, had one run six times and two runs five times, according to STATS LLC.

Also Tuesday, the Giants reached one-year agreements to avoid arbitration with outfielders Melky Cabrera and Nate Schierholtz and reliever Santiago Casilla.

Cabrera agreed to a $6 million deal.

San Francisco, which sold out every game in 2011 but missed the playoffs, will have a payroll of around $130 million.

"Obviously the revenue that has been generated by our ownership and the support of our fans here makes the payroll level we have possible," Evans said. "We don't take that for granted. We know that with that kind of payroll comes responsibility and expectation."
 
Originally Posted by MFr3shM

New Braves alternate jersey leaked don't like the cream color maybe if it was white i'd like it. i do like the number underneath the braves logo.




looks nice.

cant wait for mlb season to start and for mlb the show '12 to drop
 
Originally Posted by MFr3shM

New Braves alternate jersey leaked don't like the cream color maybe if it was white i'd like it. i do like the number underneath the braves logo.




looks nice.

cant wait for mlb season to start and for mlb the show '12 to drop
 
Darvish deal a no brainer for Rangers.

Spoiler [+]
The Texas Rangers signing Yu Darvish to a deal that is reportedly worth a guaranteed $60 million over six years is the least surprising development of the year, as both the Rangers and the Nippon Ham Fighters (Darvish's old team) faced unappealing BATNAs (best alternatives to a negotiated agreement).

Darvish would have had to return to Japan, to a club that wasn't happy to lose out on a $51.7 million posting fee, for a salary probably closer to his $6 million salary from 2011, only to face the posting system again next offseason. He's already shown he's the best pitcher in Nippon Professional Baseball, so there's no challenge for him in returning there. The Rangers' fallback options weren't quite as dire, but I'd rather pay Darvish whatever it takes to get him under contract than sign the best remaining starting pitching option, Edwin Jackson, for four years and $40-odd million.

At 6-foot-5, Darvish is taller than most Japanese pitchers who've come over to the United States, and has dominated Japanese competition to a far greater extent than Hideo Nomo or Daisuke Matsuzaka did; Darvish's worst ERA over the last five years (1.88) is lower than the best ERA ever posted in Japan by Nomo, Matsuzaka, Kenshin Kawakami, Hideki Irabu, Koji Uehara (as a starter) or Kaz Ishii. And Darvish's second-worst ERA over those five years puts him below the best seasons by Hiroki Kuroda or Hisashi Iwakuma. He punched out 272 in 232 innings in Japan last season while walking just 30 unintentionally, career-best rates in both categories.

Darvish generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the delivery well. Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph fastball that's been reported up to 97 this year, mixing it with a hard shuuto that looks like a two-seamer in the low 90s or upper 80s, a hard slider/cutter, a softer slider, a splitter, a straight changeup and a slow curveball.

That's far more pitches than a typical MLB starter would use and probably too many for Darvish once he's here. He could strip down to the fastball, shuuto, one slider and a changeup or splitter, and be more effective because he's junked his worst offerings. The one concern I'd have on Darvish is workload -- he's been worked hard in Japan, and very few NPB refugees have held their value for more than two seasons after crossing to MLB. But Darvish's ace potential makes him worth the risk, even at a cost of nearly $20 million per year when you factor in the posting fee. The Rangers came into this offseason with two obvious areas in which they could upgrade -- first base and the top of their rotation. They've now addressed the latter need.

Adding an ace to that rotation also allows the Rangers to return one of their back-end starters to the bullpen, or to mix and match those pitchers to manage their workloads. Alexi Ogando seemed to wear down in his first full season in the rotation, while Neftali Feliz is making that switch this year and probably will face the same fatigue issues in the second half if he's not handled carefully. Matt Harrison more than doubled his workload from 2010, when he held multiple roles, and fought an injury in what was the first time he'd crossed 100 innings since 2008. Even in the best-case scenario, where all six pitchers (including rotation locks Colby Lewis and Derek Holland) are healthy all year, the Rangers should have the flexibility to keep everyone fresh into September and, potentially, October as well.

Reds all about now.

Spoiler [+]
For the Cincinnati Reds, 2011 was a season of unrealized expectations. After winning the division in 2010 with a 91-71 record and practically every significant contributor to the team's first divisional title since 1995 returning, there was very good justification to expect the Reds to be in the thick of the race last year. The season started promisingly as the team won its first five games and built up a 2½-game lead two weeks in, but this proved to be the high-water mark of the year. Spending a good chunk of the summer fighting with the Pittsburgh Pirates to stay out of fourth place was not the year most had in mind.

[h4]Projecting pitchers[/h4]
What the ZiPS system has in store for Reds pitchers in 2012.

Mat Latos

3.38

191.2

189

119

Johnny Cueto

3.63

173.1

123

110

Homer Bailey

4.28

157.2

124

94

Mike Leake

4.42

159.0

166

91

Bronson Arroyo

4.84

169.1

96

83

Ryan Madson

3.00

60.0

63

134

Bill Bray

3.46

41.2

42

116

Sean Marshall

2.74

72.1

80

147

Nick Masset

3.60

70.0

68

111

Jose Arredondo

4.13

65.1

68

97

Aroldis Chapman

3.87

76.2

98

104

Logan Ondrusek

4.13

65.1

44

97
[th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
ERA
[/th][th=""]
IP
[/th][th=""]
K
[/th][th=""]
ERA+
[/th]

After finishing 79-83, 17 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, the Reds had an important decision to make: Push for the division in 2012 or rebuild and try to make the team stronger in the middle-term rather than focusing entirely on the upcoming season. A team finishing around .500 can create a lot of tough decisions for management, as simply staying put and hoping for the best is generally a pretty lousy proposition. For much of the offseason, that's pretty much what it looked like the Reds had decided to do.

A week before Christmas, that changed. General manager Walt Jocketty pulled off a surprising trade, acquiring young hurler Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres for the erratic Edinson Volquez and a rich package of prospects -- first baseman Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal and reliever Brad Boxberger.

The Reds gave up a lot of value to bring in Latos, but it's hard to get a very good young pitcher without giving up a king's ransom. Latos just turned 24 and is four years away from free agency. The ZiPS projection system pegs Latos at 15-9 with a 3.38 ERA for Cincinnati and a 90 percent chance at being above league average in 2012. Going forth until free agency, ZiPS has Latos at 60-34 with a 3.25 ERA during the next four seasons, making Latos a near-ace who can be a crucial component of any team's long-term core.

However, the loss of the prospects does mean that the Reds are now going down a particular path and need to go, to borrow a poker term, "all-in" on the next couple of seasons.

Joey Votto is signed only through 2013 and after that will be looking for a nine-figure contract that will likely be out of Cincy's price range (and his natural replacement, Alonso, is now in San Diego). Brandon Phillips, who turns 31 in June, is a free agent after the season, and his next contract will likely cover his declining years. Scott Rolen is in the same boat contract-wise and turns 37 at the start of the season. He isn't a sure bet to completely return to 2010 form after his shoulder injury (see chart below).

[h4]Projecting hitters[/h4]
The ZiPS system projects the Reds' 2012 lineup.

Devin Mesoraco

C

.248

.322

.432

17

68

100

Joey Votto

1B

.294

.402

.529

30

102

148

Brandon Phillips

2B

.279

.331

.436

18

80

104

Scott Rolen

3B

.260

.315

.441

9

51

100

Zack Cozart

SS

.253

.304

.398

13

52

86

Chris Heisey

LF

.258

.317

.446

17

57

102

Drew Stubbs

CF

.240

.317

.388

17

60

88

Jay Bruce

RF

.260

.340

.474

28

90

116
[th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
PO
[/th][th=""]
BA
[/th][th=""]
OBP
[/th][th=""]
SLG
[/th][th=""]
HR
[/th][th=""]
RBI
[/th][th=""]
OPS+
[/th]

The Reds' embrace of the short term, buoyed by the departures of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from their likely rivals, was furthered by the signing of Ryan Madson to a one-year, $8.5 million contract. ZiPS projects Madson at a 3.00 ERA in 60 innings for the Reds with 63 strikeouts. While some of my fellow number crunchers may feel that it's too much money to be paying a reliever, the fact it's a one-year deal and the Reds are pushing for a division makes it a very good idea.

In the wake of the Madson signing, ZiPS now projects Cincinnati's mean win total for 2012 at 87, a hair above the Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals at 86 wins. While this would make the Reds a very slight favorite in the division for now, given the team's focus on 2012 and the large margin for error when predicting the future, the team really shouldn't stop now. With the NL East looking very strong, second place in the NL Central is more likely to be a consolation prize this October rather than earn a wild card.

After already using some of their best trade bait and with most of the desirable free agents already signed, the Reds will likely have to overpay to bring in a significant enough upgrade to push the needle more in their direction. The Reds will have a hard time improving on Zack Cozart at short and Chris Heisey in left at this point, so they may have to turn instead to one of the team's remaining weaknesses, the starting pitcher depth after Latos and Johnny Cueto.

With Edwin Jackson now being off the Yankees' radar after the signing of Hiroki Kuroda and the acquisition of Michael Pineda, this may be a good time to try to bring in Jackson on a two-year contract with a yearly dollar figure at his desired rate.

Jackson's been a durable pitcher and his ZiPS projection of 12-9, 3.85 ERA in Cincinnati makes him the obvious No. 3 starter in Cincy, easily ahead of Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey or Mike Leake going into 2012. Paying a yearly salary of $10 million or $12 million rather than $15 million to Jackson may be preferable, but the Reds can't let perfect be the enemy of the good.

After Jackson, the options become thinner. Javier Vazquez, who would come cheaper even after a solid second half, has said he might retire. Even if he doesn't, it's believed he wants to play on the East Coast, and his fly ball tendencies aren't a great fit for the cozy confines of Great American Ballpark, anyway. Carlos Pena plays the wrong position and Jeff Francis isn't dependable enough at this point to be considered an upgrade. Cody Ross and J.D. Drew remain out there as well, but neither would be anything more than role players. An overpay for a quality player in Jackson to bolster a team weakness is likely the best move the team has left.

Walt Jocketty, in a few big moves, has done an excellent job of getting the Reds back into contention for 2012. The job's not quite finished yet.

The future of David Wright.

Spoiler [+]
A longtime agent who has had clients in the free-agent market this winter was asked recently about how much he had heard from the New York Mets. "Not a lot," he said. "It's like they're in a holding pattern."

They have virtually no money to spend as their ownership wades through its legal morass. But the future of their most prominent player, David Wright, can't be placed on hold for much longer; soon, the Mets will face a crossroads on what to do with the third baseman.

Wright is 29 years old and will make $15 million during the 2012 season; the Mets hold a $16 million option for 2013. Last season, Wright hit .254 with 14 homers and a .771 OPS, the worst of his career. But keep in mind that the lineup around Wright has been thin, generally, and he has played all the home games of his career in parks favorable toward pitchers -- first in Shea Stadium and then, in the last three seasons, Citi Field. The Mets have reconstructed the dimensions of their home ballpark, and Wright and other hitters should be helped by this. Wright's OPS+ has always been good; it was 114 in 2011.

The Mets have three options for how to handle Wright:

1. They could keep him with the intent of re-signing him beyond 2013 and using him as a rebuilding block and a legacy player. Wright is the franchise's most recognizable and most marketable player, and in the next few seasons he may well accumulate the 250th homer, 1,500th hit and 1,000th RBI of his career. If the Mets want to re-sign Wright beyond the 2013 season, he figures to cost them something in the neighborhood of $15 million-$20 million annually.

2. The Mets could keep Wright through the end of the 2013 season, and then re-evaluate his status as he reaches free agency. This is how they handled Jose Reyes, who left the Mets to sign with the Miami Marlins.

3. The Mets could attempt to trade Wright sometime in the next 18 months -- although they may be frustrated with the quality of the offers they receive. In recent years, the Milwaukee Brewers had no success in trying to get an acceptable package for Prince Fielder, as he neared free agency, and this winter, the Chicago White Sox and the Chicago Cubs have been disappointed with the offers they got for John Danks and Matt Garza, respectively. The White Sox decided to re-sign Danks rather than taking 50 cents on the dollar in trade value; the Cubs are still trying to decide what to do with Garza.

Generally speaking, the quality of third basemen around the majors is weak; teams have demonstrated interest in Wright, and it's possible that the Mets could get at least one young player they like in return, as they did in trading Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler.

The guess here is that Wright will be marketed and traded in July.

For the readers: if you were in Sandy Alderson's position, what would you do?

I emailed some talent evaluators for their assessments of Wright, and these are their responses:

From an AL evaluator: "He will have value at the trade deadline if healthy and performing as usual. He will bring compensation as a free agent, so his value to Mets is fairly high, and a team acquiring him will have to give up more than the value of a couple of high draft picks. He's a very good player, but not consistent enough to be a star on offense and defense. His defense has gone backwards and get into funks offensively. He'll produce numbers, and most every team would want him, but not as a No. 3 or a No. 4 hitter on a good team."

From an NL evaluator: "Wright's value is limited by the lack of control and expensive salary. He's not a great defender and hasn't cleared 20 HR in two of the past three seasons. He's been trending downward by most statistical metrics and our scouts are concerned his swing has gotten long and slow, leading to a high strikeout ratio. Think about it this way: Aramis Ramirez just signed a 3-year, $36 million deal with the Brewers. Ramirez is a better hitter and similar defender to Wright -- who is due $31 million for the next two seasons if his option is exercised -- so what are you paying for? Make-up? Fame?"

From an AL scout: "David Wright is a potential coup. He's eerily similar in value to the Seattle version of Adrian Beltre, although he (and everyone else in baseball) is not the defender that Beltre is. He and Beltre both were suffocated by their home parks, Citi Field and Safeco Field, respectively. Teams should have pounced and offered Beltre a premium multi-year deal when he left Seattle originally. If available, I'd trade and sign Wright now. Another caveat with Wright is that he's performed and handled himself admirably in New York, which bodes well for any type of market going forward."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
Victor Martinez made opposing pitchers pay in a big way last year when they chose to pitch around Miguel Cabrera, hitting close to .400 in those situations; he ranked first in batting average with runners in scoring position among hitters who had at least 100 at-bats in that situation. But now he is out for the year with a torn ACL.

I wrote here yesterday that a lot of teams are beginning to value the DH for positional flexibility and prefer to use it for regulars who are dealing with nagging injuries or need a day off from full-time duty. Alex Avila could use that kind of respite from time to time, and so could Cabrera.

The Tigers should sign Vladimir Guerrero, writes Drew Sharp. Here are some of the available free agents. There are solutions, writes Lynn Henning.

• The Philadelphia Phillies agreed to terms on a one-year deal with Cole Hamels. His agent expects an elite contract for Hamels.

The left-hander is entering a perfect storm for his free agency, with the Dodgers' ownership about to be settled -- the Southern Californian could be a tremendous bauble for L.A.'s next leaders and an extraordinary rotation partner for Clayton Kershaw. Hamels will hit free agency at age 28, and if he has a productive 2012 season, he'll be in line to ask for a deal of five or six years, at $20 million-$25 million a year.

And the Phillies are facing a very, very difficult decision, having already committed $104 million to six players for 2013, and with long-term obligations to Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Jonathan Papelbon and others in place. It figures that at some point, Hamels will cut off talks with the Phillies -- maybe at the start of the regular season. "He'd be so close to free agency by then," said one evaluator, "that it'd only make sense that he would test the market."

• The Texas Rangers should just say no to Prince Fielder's agent, writes Mac Engel. Fielder is still available.

• Yoenis Cespedes' small sample of winter games so far: a .105 batting average.

Carl Crawford had surgery. This sets his redemption back, writes Peter Abraham.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Texas continues to work on its Yu Darvish deal.

2. The Arizona Diamondbacks had a tremendous negotiating win in working out a deal with Joe Saunders. After haggling for weeks and months, they re-signed a pitcher they valued for exactly the price they signed him for, saving themselves about $3 million because they didn't simply settle for arbitration.

It's not bad for the pitcher, either: Saunders gets to stay with the Diamondbacks, in the town where he lives, and after pitching in 2012 for a team that has a chance to be successful, he can go back out in the free-agent market. That makes more sense than signing a two-year deal or going to an AL team.

The Diamondbacks have a deep rotation, with Trevor Cahill now joining Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Saunders and Josh Collmenter, with a nice group of young starters developing in the highest levels of the Arizona farm system.

3. Pablo Sandoval worked out a three-year deal, as John Shea writes.

4. Tim Lincecum seeks a record arbitration award. There is an all-important midpoint, as Andrew Baggarly writes.

5. There were a whole lot of arbitration settlements:

A) The Player Formerly Known As Leo Nunez, as Clark Spencer writes. The Marlins are going to arbitration with two players, it appears.

B) Toronto Blue Jays, who have two pending cases.

C) Tampa Bay Rays, who still have a case pending with Jeff Niemann, as Marc Topkin writes.

D) Detroit.

E) Kansas City.

F) Oakland.

G) Cleveland.

H) Minnesota.

I) Washington Nationals, who avoided arbitration with Jordan Zimmerman and Tom Gorzelanny but didn't reach deals with John Lannan and Michael Morse.

J) Pittsburgh.

K) The Yankees.

L) The Mets.

M) Boston.

N) Colorado.

O) Baltimore.

P) The Dodgers.

Q) San Diego.

R) The Cubs.

6. The Kansas City Royals need to get a long-term deal done with Alex Gordon, writes Sam Mellinger.

7. The Atlanta Braves re-signed Peter Moylan, which is what he wanted.

8. The Houston Astros signed Jack Cust, writes Zachary Levine.

9. The Brewers signed an outfielder.

10. The Cubs and Red Sox want the commissioner to rule on the Theo Epstein arbitration, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

11. Dayan Viciedo is pitching the White Sox to other players.

The historic price of Yu Darvish.

Spoiler [+]
Yu Darvish is the most expensive right-handed pitcher in baseball history.

Not that he's receiving all of that money, of course. The Texas Rangers are paying a $51.7 million posting fee to the Nippon Ham Fighters, and on top of that, Darvish is getting a contract of six years and $60 million, which means Texas' total investment in the pitcher is $111.7 million.

This sum is significantly below what the New York Yankees agreed to pay CC Sabathia ($161 million) when they signed him three winters ago and less than what the Philadelphia Phillies will pay Cliff Lee. There are some contractual bells and whistles and salary deferrals that can distend the appearance of what is actually paid out, but from the perspective of the player's union, here are the biggest deals:

[h4]Notable Japanese League free agents[/h4]
Japanese League players who have recently come to MLB (including the years and dollars of the contract)

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Red Sox '06-07

6/$52M*

Hideki Matsui

Yankees '02-03

3/$21M

Kazuo Matsui

Mets '03-04

3/$20.1M

Kenji Johjima

Mariners '05-06

3/$16.5M

Ichiro Suzuki

Mariners '00-01

3/$14.1M

Hideki Irabu

Yankees '96-97

4/$12.8M

Kaz Ishii

Dodgers '01-02

4/$12.8M
* Red Sox also paid $51 million posting fee
[th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
Terms
[/th]

1. Sabathia: $162,302,133

2. Johan Santana: $123,106,024

3. Barry Zito: $123,105,480

4. Lee: $118,629,556

5. Mike Hampton: $106,505,617

In the world of MLB accounting -- the assessment of payroll and possible luxury tax implications -- the $51.7 million posting fee won't count. Darvish will account for $10 million of the Rangers' payroll. But the total cost to the Rangers' organization is greater than any other right-hander -- more than Kevin Brown's $105 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, or the $103 million that Daisuke Matsuzaka cost the Boston Red Sox, or the extension that Roy Halladay received when he signed with the Phillies.

The Rangers have to pay the $51.7 million posting fee to Darvish's old team in the next five days, so in the assessment of what Texas is doling out, you could treat this as a signing bonus -- which would take the present-day value of Darvish's cost into the range of $115-120 million, according to one longtime agent.

From ESPN Stats and Info, some Darvish tidbits:

[h4]Yu Darvish[/h4]
Darvish in his last three Japanese League seasons.

2011

232*

10.7*

2010

202

9.9

2009

182

8.3
* Career highs
[th=""]
Season
[/th][th=""]
IP
[/th][th=""]
K/9 IP
[/th]

• Age 25
• 93-38 in five seasons with Nippon of Japanese League
• Finished with ERA below 2.00 in all five seasons in Japanese League
• Participated in 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2009 World Baseball Classic
• Born to Iranian father and Japanese mother
• Two-time Pacific League MVP (2007 and 2009)
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Spoke with a number of executives after the Darvish signing was complete, and across the board the soft predictions regarding Prince Fielder remain the same: Generally, executives believe he will land with either Texas or the Washington Nationals.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels says any deal with Texas has to be "creative" -- i.e., on Texas' terms.

Adam Kilgore speculates within this piece that perhaps the public meeting with the Rangers was designed to send a message to the Nationals.

There's not much leverage for Fielder at this point, partly because the Nationals and Rangers aren't desperate in any way; Fielder makes them better, but executives on either team would be comfortable going to spring training with their teams constituted as they are currently.

Given these circumstances, you wonder if the Rangers or Nationals would respond to a request for an opt-out clause for Fielder with this: OK, we'll let you walk away from the contract after three years … if we can, too.

Wrote here last week (and it's worth repeating) that with Fielder in a relatively vulnerable negotiating position, wouldn't it make sense for the Dodgers' Frank McCourt to swoop in, make a deal and add to the perceived value of his franchise, as bidders prepare to make offers when he starts to auction his team next week?

For the Nationals, the signing of Fielder would be a decision that would have ripple effects -- so it's not a surprise that the team is finding out what it would take to keep Ryan Zimmerman with a contract extension. It's hard to imagine the Nationals signing Fielder and retaining Zimmerman beyond 2013.

• Major League Baseball continues to work toward the expansion of the playoff field from eight to 10 teams for the upcoming season, and the greatest impediment is the fact that the regular-season schedule is already set, starting on April 4 and ending Oct. 3. The one-game playoff between wild-card teams would have to happen immediately after the end of the regular season, given that the World Series will be scheduled to start around Oct. 24.

Other issues would have to be resolved, as well, such as the question of how to handle ties at the end of the regular season. If two teams tied for the No. 6 spot, a playoff game would be required, of course.

But it's possible that with the value of winning a division ramped up so dramatically under the new format -- a division winner gets a bye, while the wild-card teams will have to play one elimination game -- teams will want a playoff to break first-place division ties. Under the 2011 format, if teams tied for first place had one of the top four records in their respective league, a division championship was determined by best head-to-head record.

What if, under the new format, the Los Angeles Angels and Rangers tied for first place in the AL West with 96 wins, the Detroit Tigers won 94 games to win the Central, the Tampa Bay Rays won the East with 93 victories, and the Yankees clinched a wild-card spot with 91 victories? The winner of the AL West would be the No. 1 seed, and the second-place team would play the Yankees in an elimination game. So would it be better to have a one-game playoff between the Rangers and Angels, or just determine the winner by head-to-head play?

It's under discussion. There remains a high level of confidence that MLB will use the new 10-team format for the upcoming season.

• With spring training just a month away and jobs growing scarce, agents and at least a couple of rival general managers jumped at the chance to pitch ideas at Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski right after news broke that Victor Martinez is expected to miss the season.

Dombrowski said over the phone on Wednesday that he hasn't determined exactly what course of action he will take to replace Martinez, and it may be that he'll wait longer to decide. "You're not going to find a player comparable to Victor," said Dombrowski, but then he went on to explain that in the big picture, there could be worse crises. It's not as if you're losing your everyday catcher, he said, in which you literally cannot find a suitable replacement at this stage in the winter. With the DH position, there is greater flexibility. "We have until Opening Day, and we have some maneuverability," he said.

For example (and these ideas are my own, not Dombrowski's): The Tigers could choose to sign a veteran outfielder, such as Cody Ross, and use him in an outfield rotation that would generate a DH candidate on any given day. Or the Tigers could sign one of the veteran DHs on the market, such as Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui (if Dombrowski wanted a left-handed hitter) or Vladimir Guerrero (if he wanted a right-handed hitter). Or he could wait for a trade candidate to emerge, such as Martin Prado. (Again, all names are my own speculation.)

"I'm just going to digest it," said Dombrowski. "This gives me a chance to put names together. If there's a name that jumps out, we'll react quickly."

Jim Leyland says he's eager to solve the new lineup issue, writes Drew Sharp. The Tigers will wait for the right deal to come up, writes Lynn Henning.

• As part of Ubaldo Jimenez's effort to get back to where he was in 2010, he is doing extensive strengthening in his legs and core this offseason.

• The Toronto Blue Jays are hopeful that Colby Rasmus will be more comfortable in his first full season with the team and healthier. He hurt his wrist in August of last season and when he came back -- without the benefit of a minor league rehab assignment -- Rasmus finished the season with four hits in his last 45 at-bats, three doubles and a single.

• It's possible that Peter O'Malley will join forces with the Disney family in bidding for the Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.

• There is intrigue but no answers yet in the question of the Padres' ownership transition, writes Tim Sullivan.

• The mayor of St. Petersburg postures in this piece.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Yoenis Cespedes mashed his first home run in winter ball.

2. Nick Piecoro breaks down the Arizona Diamondbacks' payroll.

3. This has been a good offseason for the San Francisco Giants, writes Bruce Jenkins, who likes the Lincecum situation for the team.

4. The Nationals' negotiations with MASN will have an impact on the team on the field, writes Adam Kilgore.

5. The Seattle Mariners have signed Oliver Perez.

6. Jorge Posada is content with his decision, writes Dan Martin.

7. The Baltimore Orioles have signed a New Zealander.

8. The Minnesota Twins finalized the signing of Joel Zumaya.

Breakout prospects for 2012.

Spoiler [+]
Interest in the Major League Baseball draft has grown by leaps and bounds in the last decade. The event was once an outpost solely for the hardcore, but thanks to great coverage -- including a national television audience -- even many casual fans can name their team's first-round pick from last June and maybe even a big bonus baby from the later rounds.

Believe it or not, there was a time when the draft was a secret. With MLB fearing the college game would use the draft as a free recruiting tool, lists were once kept shrouded until a player signed. With 1,530 players selected in the 2011, there are still plenty of secrets to be unhidden.

Here are 10 players, not taken in the first-round or given a greatly over-slot bonus, who are poised to break out in 2012 and become familiar to fans everywhere.


[h3]Carter Capps, RHP, Seattle Mariners[/h3]


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The 121st-overall pick and only supplemental third-round pick, Carter converted to pitching at Division II powerhouse Mt. Olive in North Carolina and turned himself into a significant pro prospect.

At 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds, Capps certainly looks the part, and he backs it up with a low-to-mid 90s fastball that he complements with a potentially plus slider. Because he's so new to the craft, he still looks like a catcher who is trying to pitch, but he missed bats in his pro debut (21 strikeouts in 18 innings for low Class A Clinton) and could move quickly if swtiched to a bullpen role.


[h3]Bobby Crocker, OF, Oakland Athletics[/h3]


oak.gif




Crocker's numbers at Cal Poly don't jump out at you. While his .339 batting average led the Mustangs in 2011, it's not in the range one expects from elite players. What Crocker does have, and what made him a fourth-round pick, is athleticism.

At a muscular 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, he's built like an NFL safety and has above-average raw power that he's yet to tap into, as well as some speed. A .322/.367/.441 line in the New York-Penn league has some hoping that he's just starting to scratch the surface of his potential.


[h3]Matt Duran, OF, New York Yankees[/h3]


nyy.gif




While it's not exactly a baseball hotbed, the Yankees do scout their local area intensely, and a quick drive up I-95 allowed them to find Duran at New Rochelle (N.Y.) HIgh School, selecting him in the fourth round.

He had an impressive debut in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, batting .301/.365/.506 in 23 games, and the pressure will be on his bat throughout his career, as he's stocky, slow and already labeled by many as a bat-only prospect -- albeit with a potentially impressive bat.


[h3]Desmond Henry, OF, Texas Rangers[/h3]


tex.gif




Speed is always a premium in any draft, and straight out of Compton comes Henry, the Rangers' fourth-round pick. Not only can he fly, he also has strength and some potential for some power down the road.

His tools were worthy of the first-round, but there are some big questions about his hitting ability and a .140 batting average in 57 at-bats in the rookie-level Arizona League did little to alleviate those concerns. He's not ready for a full-season league, but four months of spring training could lead to big things come June, when the short-season circuits begin play.


[h3]William Jerez, OF, Boston Red Sox[/h3]


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A Dominican native who came to the United States as a teenager, Jerez played his high school baseball at the same school in New York as Yankees pitching prospect Dellin Betances. And while the Yankees had interest in Jerez, the Red Sox surprised the industry when they selected him earlier than expected with the 81st-overall pick.

A pure tools bet, Jerez is a long-limbed fast-twitch athlete with above-average speed and the potential for power once he fills out. He's a risky player who could take a long time to develop, but if he puts it together, look out.


[h3]Jorge Lopez, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]


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The Brewers are rebuilding their system after emptying it out to acquire Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, and the 2011 draft was a step in the right direction. While much of the attention was paid to their two first-round college pitchers (Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley), Lopez has as much potential as any of them, although he's further away and much riskier.

His body screams projection, and the 18-year-old from Puerto Rico should gain some velocity on what is currently a low-90s fastball to go with what is already one of the best curveballs in the system.


[h3]Cory Mazzoni, RHP, New York Mets[/h3]


nym.gif




A second-round pick after a solid career at North Carolina State, Mazzoni has already garnered the attention of some Mets fans by allowing just two runs while striking out 18 in 13 innings across two levels in his pro debut.

Those numbers came in short stints after a heavy college workload, and he'll return to starting in 2012, equipped with a fastball and slider that both rate as above-average. His early success has some tempted to see if he could move quickly as a reliever, but for now, that's a backup plan.


[h3]Anthony Meo, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]


ari.gif




Meo made headlines last May at Coastal Carolina when he threw a no-hitter against Radford in the Big South Tournament, and many thought he could slide into the first round last June. Arizona was pleasantly surprised to see him still on the board when its second-round pick arrived. At 6-2, 185 pounds, he's not the most physical of pitchers, but he does have above-average velocity and command and a good breaking ball.

That combination could have him moving quickly through the Arizona system even if his upside is a bit limited.


[h3]Jeff Soptic, RHP, Chicago White Sox[/h3]


chw.gif




While the White Sox have tried do address the worst system in baseball with some off-season trades, they do have some hope coming from their most recent draft, including Soptic, a third-round pick who reportedly touched 100 mph during a game last spring at Johnson County CC in Overland Park, Kan.

Triple-digit fastballs usually mean seven-figure bonuses, but Soptic is far from a finished product, as his slider needs work, even for him to become a successful reliever. Still, much like how you can't teach height in the NBA, you can't teach velocity, and Soptic has that building block covered.


[h3]Dillon Thomas, OF, Colorado Rockies[/h3]


col.gif




Scouts had trouble wrapping their head around Thomas this spring. Nothing about him is pretty, including his swing, but he was a huge performer on the highly competitive Houston high school circuit. After being taken in the fourth-round of the draft, he hit .328/.361/.414 in 15 games for Casper in the rookie-level Pioneer League.

He doesn't run well, he's limited defensively, but the hit tool is the one that trumps all, and Thomas has it.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Nats, Zimmerman talking extension[/h3]
11:17AM ET

[h5]Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals [/h5]


The Washington Nationals have been busy recently, what with trading for Gio Gonzalez and being seen as the favorites to land Prince Fielder. It appears there's now another item on their To Do list that's getting some attention.

MLB.com's Bill Ladson reported that the club has had talks with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman about an extension.

Zimmerman, who has two years and $26 million remaining on his contract, has indicated he would like to stay with the Nats for his entire career.

It seems unlikely that any headway would be made on this front before the club makes a decision one way or another on Fielder, who is bound to cost a pretty penny. In order for the Nats to know how much they have to allot toward Zimmerman, they'll need to figure out where they stand on Fielder first.

One good sign? The franchise is negotiating television rights and revenues with their provider, MASN, and there's a chance the Nationals could double or triple the $29 million they received from MASN in 2011, according to one person familiar with the situation.

That would certainly be good for business.

- Jason Catania

http://[h3]Posada not an option for Yanks[/h3]
11:03AM ET

[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]


The New York Yankees essentially posted a Help Wanted sign for a designated hitter when they agreed to send Jesus Montero to Seattle in last week's blockbuster deal. A few more candidates apparently have inquired about the job.

One name that will not be up for consideration is recently-retired Jorge Posada, who told the New York Post's Dan Martin that he will remain out of the game. Posada served as DH last year.

Newsday's Ken Davidoff reported that reps for Vladimir Guerrero and Raul Ibanez have contacted the Yankees.

Earlier this week, we saw Jack Cust choose to move onto the Houston Astros, taking away another potential DH option.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted earlier this week that http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4594/carlos-penaCarlos Pena is in the club's sights. It also has been reported that the Yankees would consider bringing back Johnny Damon, who spent last season in Tampa.

Whoever lands the job could be working at a discount. While the Yankees want to add a bat, they want to avoid adding to a payroll that has risen to about $212 million with the signing of a http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28950/hiroki-kurodaHiroki Kuroda, says Marc Carig of the Star Ledger.

The Yankees could free up money with another trade. The addition of Kuroda and Pineda has revived speculation that the Yankees could step up efforts to trade http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4153/aj-burnettA.J. Burnett or http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28638/phil-hughesPhil Hughes.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney had more on the Yankees' DH situation in Tuesday's blog:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
The DH in the Bronx
"The Yankees may decide in the end to devote a lot of the DH at-bats to Eduardo Nunez -- but not necessarily with Nunez getting the at-bats at DH. They could give Alex Rodriguez 25 to 40 games at DH to help keep him healthy, with Nunez starting at third, and Derek Jeter could get some games at DH, with Nunez starting at shortstop."
http://[h3]No timetable in Epstein comp[/h3]
10:58AM ET

[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]


It's been three months since Theo Epstein bolted Boston for Chicago, and the Red Sox and Cubs have yet to reach agreement on compensation for the departed executive.

With no deal in sight, the Cubs and Red Sox have requested that their stalemate be resolved by commissioner Bud Selig. That move was apparently initiated by Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino late last month, reports Gordon Wittenmyer in Wednesday's Chicago Sun-Times.

The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham confirmed with MLB that Selig is involved in the process, but no timetable for a decision was given.

In an interview earlier this month on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show, Epstein insisted that the Red Sox shouldn't be expecting much based on historical precedent, citing the minimal compensation issued when Andy MacPhail moved to the Cubs in 1994.

Epstein considers his move to the Cubs a promotion, while the Red Sox likely view it as a lateral move that requires more compensation.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Oviedo trade bait?[/h3]
10:52AM ET

[h5]Miami Marlins [/h5]


The closer formerly known as Leo Nunez has avoided arbitration with the Miami Marlins on a $6 million deal for 2012, tweets Joe Capozzi. Juan Carlos Oviedo is likely to become the subject of trade talks between now and the start of the season, as Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported.

The Marlins can house such a player, and his contract, but are already paying Heath Bell $27 million over three years to handle the ninth inning. Paying a setup man $6 million is rare in baseball -- and would also push the team's payroll north of $95 million -- suggesting the Fish could look to move Oviedo.

Clubs that could have interest include the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles, each of whom has shown interest in free agent closer Francisco Cordero.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Wiggy to fill in for Howard[/h3]
10:31AM ET

[h5]Ryan Howard | Phillies [/h5]


http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6097/ryan-howardRyan Howard appears ahead of schedule in his return from a ruptured left Achilles, with a potential May return on the table. As for who will handle first base duties until the lefty slugger is ready to return? General manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. gave a pretty good indication to ESPN Insider Jim Bowden.

Bowden tweeted that Amaro told him Ty Wigginton will see the majority of play at first, and Jim Thome will get the occasional start, too.

Howard, who has been cleared for strengthening exercises, could still be out half the year, which could mean several players share the position, including John Mayberry Jr., Ty Wigginton and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5576/laynce-nixLaynce Nix all fill in.

The Phillies' lineup will look different until the Howard is back, and since Thome won't play everyday, there could be games when Wigginton or Mayberry are batting cleanup.

A more likely option, however, is for the Phillies to use http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4258/jimmy-rollinsJimmy Rollins and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5409/shane-victorinoShane Victorino at the top with http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28687/hunter-penceHunter Pence and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utleyChase Utley hitting third and fourth. That clears the Nos. 5 and 6 spots for the fill-in first baseman.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Cespedes hits one out[/h3]
10:25AM ET

[h5]Yoenis Cespedes [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
[h5]Clubs linked to Cespedes[/h5]
Yoenis Cespedes has established residency and is waiting for Major League Baseball to grant him free agency. In the meantime, he's decided to play in the Dominican Winter League, which hasn't been a good choice early on in the process. The 26-year-old outfielder started off 2-for-19 with six strikeouts, leaving many to wonder what he has to gain by playing.

He did, however, hit his first home run Thursday, as our own Buster Olney tweeted video of the shot.

The clubs expected to be bid heavily for Cespedes include the Miami Marlins and the Detroit Tigers, especially now that Victor Martinez's 2012 is in doubt. Others who have expressed interest? The Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, although it's unlikely the Yanks or Sox have the financial ability to spend tens of millions at this time.

The dollars he's likely to command start at $30 million and there have been figures up as high as $65 million tossed around the industry.

- Jason Catania

http://[h3]Yanks looking to move A.J.?[/h3]
8:42AM ET

[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]


Since the trade of Jesus Montero to Seattle in exchange for right-hander Michael Pineda, most of the buzz about the New York Yankees is centered on the designated hitter position. Several names have been bandied about, including former Yankees, Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. General manager Brian Cashman may have other ideas on the burner.

Eric Chavez could be the next name to show on the transaction page, as the Yankees look for another option at the infield corner to spell Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Burnett.

Recently released veteran Mark Teahen could be another candidate for the role, and Cashman could be looking to wrangle up two roles -- DH and corner infield backup -- in one swoop.

CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman tweeted Thursday that Cashman doesn't mean to spend more than $1-2 million on a DH type at this point. The one possibility that could change things would be if the Yanks can find a taker for A.J. Burnett -- by eating most of the $33 million he's owed the next two years -- and save at least some money that could be spent on another hitter.

Part of the reason Burnett could be moved is because the starting rotation is more than full.

With Montero gone, Francisco Cervelli's backup catcher gig appears to be safe for now, but prospect Austin Romine could battle for that job in spring, if not by midseason.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Interest in Cuban southpaw[/h3]
8:34AM ET

[h5]Gerardo Concepcion [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler are not the only Cuban defectors hoping to sign a contract with a club in Major League Baseball this offseason. Left-hander Gerardo Concepcion has been granted free agency by the league, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes.com.

Concepcion, 18, is drawing interest from both Chicago clubs, the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies, and that group could grow by the time he signs.

At 6-foot-1 and about 180 pounds, Concepcion doesn't fit the physical profile of a frontline arm, which may limit how clubs value him compared to Cespedes and Soler, who are outfielders, but Concepcion was the 2010-11 Rookie of the Year in Cuba's Serie Nacional.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Rangers and Prince Fielder[/h3]
8:31AM ET

[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers | Interested: Rangers? [/h5]


Free agent first baseman http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5915/prince-fielderPrince Fielder had more than a passing interest in what happened Wednesday afternoon when the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangersTexas Rangers signed Japanese righthander Yu Darvish to a six-year deal worth $60 million guaranteed.

The Rangers met with Fielder last week, according to multiple reports, and the club certainly has the revenue stream to spend on such a free agent, even after forking over more than $110 million total on Darvish between the negotiating rights and contract. ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden tweeted Sunday that the Rangers can afford both Darvish and Fielder.

Earlier this week, Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported the Rangers are downplaying the chances of landing both Darvish and Fielder, "barring something changing," as one source put it.

Wednesday, shortly after the contract with Darvish was announced, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that the Rangers are interested in Fielder "on a short-term deal," suggesting the Washington Nationals -- still considered the industry favorite, according to Morosi -- and perhaps Seattle Mariners may end up the highest bidders.
 
Darvish deal a no brainer for Rangers.

Spoiler [+]
The Texas Rangers signing Yu Darvish to a deal that is reportedly worth a guaranteed $60 million over six years is the least surprising development of the year, as both the Rangers and the Nippon Ham Fighters (Darvish's old team) faced unappealing BATNAs (best alternatives to a negotiated agreement).

Darvish would have had to return to Japan, to a club that wasn't happy to lose out on a $51.7 million posting fee, for a salary probably closer to his $6 million salary from 2011, only to face the posting system again next offseason. He's already shown he's the best pitcher in Nippon Professional Baseball, so there's no challenge for him in returning there. The Rangers' fallback options weren't quite as dire, but I'd rather pay Darvish whatever it takes to get him under contract than sign the best remaining starting pitching option, Edwin Jackson, for four years and $40-odd million.

At 6-foot-5, Darvish is taller than most Japanese pitchers who've come over to the United States, and has dominated Japanese competition to a far greater extent than Hideo Nomo or Daisuke Matsuzaka did; Darvish's worst ERA over the last five years (1.88) is lower than the best ERA ever posted in Japan by Nomo, Matsuzaka, Kenshin Kawakami, Hideki Irabu, Koji Uehara (as a starter) or Kaz Ishii. And Darvish's second-worst ERA over those five years puts him below the best seasons by Hiroki Kuroda or Hisashi Iwakuma. He punched out 272 in 232 innings in Japan last season while walking just 30 unintentionally, career-best rates in both categories.

Darvish generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the delivery well. Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph fastball that's been reported up to 97 this year, mixing it with a hard shuuto that looks like a two-seamer in the low 90s or upper 80s, a hard slider/cutter, a softer slider, a splitter, a straight changeup and a slow curveball.

That's far more pitches than a typical MLB starter would use and probably too many for Darvish once he's here. He could strip down to the fastball, shuuto, one slider and a changeup or splitter, and be more effective because he's junked his worst offerings. The one concern I'd have on Darvish is workload -- he's been worked hard in Japan, and very few NPB refugees have held their value for more than two seasons after crossing to MLB. But Darvish's ace potential makes him worth the risk, even at a cost of nearly $20 million per year when you factor in the posting fee. The Rangers came into this offseason with two obvious areas in which they could upgrade -- first base and the top of their rotation. They've now addressed the latter need.

Adding an ace to that rotation also allows the Rangers to return one of their back-end starters to the bullpen, or to mix and match those pitchers to manage their workloads. Alexi Ogando seemed to wear down in his first full season in the rotation, while Neftali Feliz is making that switch this year and probably will face the same fatigue issues in the second half if he's not handled carefully. Matt Harrison more than doubled his workload from 2010, when he held multiple roles, and fought an injury in what was the first time he'd crossed 100 innings since 2008. Even in the best-case scenario, where all six pitchers (including rotation locks Colby Lewis and Derek Holland) are healthy all year, the Rangers should have the flexibility to keep everyone fresh into September and, potentially, October as well.

Reds all about now.

Spoiler [+]
For the Cincinnati Reds, 2011 was a season of unrealized expectations. After winning the division in 2010 with a 91-71 record and practically every significant contributor to the team's first divisional title since 1995 returning, there was very good justification to expect the Reds to be in the thick of the race last year. The season started promisingly as the team won its first five games and built up a 2½-game lead two weeks in, but this proved to be the high-water mark of the year. Spending a good chunk of the summer fighting with the Pittsburgh Pirates to stay out of fourth place was not the year most had in mind.

[h4]Projecting pitchers[/h4]
What the ZiPS system has in store for Reds pitchers in 2012.

Mat Latos

3.38

191.2

189

119

Johnny Cueto

3.63

173.1

123

110

Homer Bailey

4.28

157.2

124

94

Mike Leake

4.42

159.0

166

91

Bronson Arroyo

4.84

169.1

96

83

Ryan Madson

3.00

60.0

63

134

Bill Bray

3.46

41.2

42

116

Sean Marshall

2.74

72.1

80

147

Nick Masset

3.60

70.0

68

111

Jose Arredondo

4.13

65.1

68

97

Aroldis Chapman

3.87

76.2

98

104

Logan Ondrusek

4.13

65.1

44

97
[th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
ERA
[/th][th=""]
IP
[/th][th=""]
K
[/th][th=""]
ERA+
[/th]

After finishing 79-83, 17 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, the Reds had an important decision to make: Push for the division in 2012 or rebuild and try to make the team stronger in the middle-term rather than focusing entirely on the upcoming season. A team finishing around .500 can create a lot of tough decisions for management, as simply staying put and hoping for the best is generally a pretty lousy proposition. For much of the offseason, that's pretty much what it looked like the Reds had decided to do.

A week before Christmas, that changed. General manager Walt Jocketty pulled off a surprising trade, acquiring young hurler Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres for the erratic Edinson Volquez and a rich package of prospects -- first baseman Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal and reliever Brad Boxberger.

The Reds gave up a lot of value to bring in Latos, but it's hard to get a very good young pitcher without giving up a king's ransom. Latos just turned 24 and is four years away from free agency. The ZiPS projection system pegs Latos at 15-9 with a 3.38 ERA for Cincinnati and a 90 percent chance at being above league average in 2012. Going forth until free agency, ZiPS has Latos at 60-34 with a 3.25 ERA during the next four seasons, making Latos a near-ace who can be a crucial component of any team's long-term core.

However, the loss of the prospects does mean that the Reds are now going down a particular path and need to go, to borrow a poker term, "all-in" on the next couple of seasons.

Joey Votto is signed only through 2013 and after that will be looking for a nine-figure contract that will likely be out of Cincy's price range (and his natural replacement, Alonso, is now in San Diego). Brandon Phillips, who turns 31 in June, is a free agent after the season, and his next contract will likely cover his declining years. Scott Rolen is in the same boat contract-wise and turns 37 at the start of the season. He isn't a sure bet to completely return to 2010 form after his shoulder injury (see chart below).

[h4]Projecting hitters[/h4]
The ZiPS system projects the Reds' 2012 lineup.

Devin Mesoraco

C

.248

.322

.432

17

68

100

Joey Votto

1B

.294

.402

.529

30

102

148

Brandon Phillips

2B

.279

.331

.436

18

80

104

Scott Rolen

3B

.260

.315

.441

9

51

100

Zack Cozart

SS

.253

.304

.398

13

52

86

Chris Heisey

LF

.258

.317

.446

17

57

102

Drew Stubbs

CF

.240

.317

.388

17

60

88

Jay Bruce

RF

.260

.340

.474

28

90

116
[th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
PO
[/th][th=""]
BA
[/th][th=""]
OBP
[/th][th=""]
SLG
[/th][th=""]
HR
[/th][th=""]
RBI
[/th][th=""]
OPS+
[/th]

The Reds' embrace of the short term, buoyed by the departures of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from their likely rivals, was furthered by the signing of Ryan Madson to a one-year, $8.5 million contract. ZiPS projects Madson at a 3.00 ERA in 60 innings for the Reds with 63 strikeouts. While some of my fellow number crunchers may feel that it's too much money to be paying a reliever, the fact it's a one-year deal and the Reds are pushing for a division makes it a very good idea.

In the wake of the Madson signing, ZiPS now projects Cincinnati's mean win total for 2012 at 87, a hair above the Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals at 86 wins. While this would make the Reds a very slight favorite in the division for now, given the team's focus on 2012 and the large margin for error when predicting the future, the team really shouldn't stop now. With the NL East looking very strong, second place in the NL Central is more likely to be a consolation prize this October rather than earn a wild card.

After already using some of their best trade bait and with most of the desirable free agents already signed, the Reds will likely have to overpay to bring in a significant enough upgrade to push the needle more in their direction. The Reds will have a hard time improving on Zack Cozart at short and Chris Heisey in left at this point, so they may have to turn instead to one of the team's remaining weaknesses, the starting pitcher depth after Latos and Johnny Cueto.

With Edwin Jackson now being off the Yankees' radar after the signing of Hiroki Kuroda and the acquisition of Michael Pineda, this may be a good time to try to bring in Jackson on a two-year contract with a yearly dollar figure at his desired rate.

Jackson's been a durable pitcher and his ZiPS projection of 12-9, 3.85 ERA in Cincinnati makes him the obvious No. 3 starter in Cincy, easily ahead of Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey or Mike Leake going into 2012. Paying a yearly salary of $10 million or $12 million rather than $15 million to Jackson may be preferable, but the Reds can't let perfect be the enemy of the good.

After Jackson, the options become thinner. Javier Vazquez, who would come cheaper even after a solid second half, has said he might retire. Even if he doesn't, it's believed he wants to play on the East Coast, and his fly ball tendencies aren't a great fit for the cozy confines of Great American Ballpark, anyway. Carlos Pena plays the wrong position and Jeff Francis isn't dependable enough at this point to be considered an upgrade. Cody Ross and J.D. Drew remain out there as well, but neither would be anything more than role players. An overpay for a quality player in Jackson to bolster a team weakness is likely the best move the team has left.

Walt Jocketty, in a few big moves, has done an excellent job of getting the Reds back into contention for 2012. The job's not quite finished yet.

The future of David Wright.

Spoiler [+]
A longtime agent who has had clients in the free-agent market this winter was asked recently about how much he had heard from the New York Mets. "Not a lot," he said. "It's like they're in a holding pattern."

They have virtually no money to spend as their ownership wades through its legal morass. But the future of their most prominent player, David Wright, can't be placed on hold for much longer; soon, the Mets will face a crossroads on what to do with the third baseman.

Wright is 29 years old and will make $15 million during the 2012 season; the Mets hold a $16 million option for 2013. Last season, Wright hit .254 with 14 homers and a .771 OPS, the worst of his career. But keep in mind that the lineup around Wright has been thin, generally, and he has played all the home games of his career in parks favorable toward pitchers -- first in Shea Stadium and then, in the last three seasons, Citi Field. The Mets have reconstructed the dimensions of their home ballpark, and Wright and other hitters should be helped by this. Wright's OPS+ has always been good; it was 114 in 2011.

The Mets have three options for how to handle Wright:

1. They could keep him with the intent of re-signing him beyond 2013 and using him as a rebuilding block and a legacy player. Wright is the franchise's most recognizable and most marketable player, and in the next few seasons he may well accumulate the 250th homer, 1,500th hit and 1,000th RBI of his career. If the Mets want to re-sign Wright beyond the 2013 season, he figures to cost them something in the neighborhood of $15 million-$20 million annually.

2. The Mets could keep Wright through the end of the 2013 season, and then re-evaluate his status as he reaches free agency. This is how they handled Jose Reyes, who left the Mets to sign with the Miami Marlins.

3. The Mets could attempt to trade Wright sometime in the next 18 months -- although they may be frustrated with the quality of the offers they receive. In recent years, the Milwaukee Brewers had no success in trying to get an acceptable package for Prince Fielder, as he neared free agency, and this winter, the Chicago White Sox and the Chicago Cubs have been disappointed with the offers they got for John Danks and Matt Garza, respectively. The White Sox decided to re-sign Danks rather than taking 50 cents on the dollar in trade value; the Cubs are still trying to decide what to do with Garza.

Generally speaking, the quality of third basemen around the majors is weak; teams have demonstrated interest in Wright, and it's possible that the Mets could get at least one young player they like in return, as they did in trading Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler.

The guess here is that Wright will be marketed and traded in July.

For the readers: if you were in Sandy Alderson's position, what would you do?

I emailed some talent evaluators for their assessments of Wright, and these are their responses:

From an AL evaluator: "He will have value at the trade deadline if healthy and performing as usual. He will bring compensation as a free agent, so his value to Mets is fairly high, and a team acquiring him will have to give up more than the value of a couple of high draft picks. He's a very good player, but not consistent enough to be a star on offense and defense. His defense has gone backwards and get into funks offensively. He'll produce numbers, and most every team would want him, but not as a No. 3 or a No. 4 hitter on a good team."

From an NL evaluator: "Wright's value is limited by the lack of control and expensive salary. He's not a great defender and hasn't cleared 20 HR in two of the past three seasons. He's been trending downward by most statistical metrics and our scouts are concerned his swing has gotten long and slow, leading to a high strikeout ratio. Think about it this way: Aramis Ramirez just signed a 3-year, $36 million deal with the Brewers. Ramirez is a better hitter and similar defender to Wright -- who is due $31 million for the next two seasons if his option is exercised -- so what are you paying for? Make-up? Fame?"

From an AL scout: "David Wright is a potential coup. He's eerily similar in value to the Seattle version of Adrian Beltre, although he (and everyone else in baseball) is not the defender that Beltre is. He and Beltre both were suffocated by their home parks, Citi Field and Safeco Field, respectively. Teams should have pounced and offered Beltre a premium multi-year deal when he left Seattle originally. If available, I'd trade and sign Wright now. Another caveat with Wright is that he's performed and handled himself admirably in New York, which bodes well for any type of market going forward."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
Victor Martinez made opposing pitchers pay in a big way last year when they chose to pitch around Miguel Cabrera, hitting close to .400 in those situations; he ranked first in batting average with runners in scoring position among hitters who had at least 100 at-bats in that situation. But now he is out for the year with a torn ACL.

I wrote here yesterday that a lot of teams are beginning to value the DH for positional flexibility and prefer to use it for regulars who are dealing with nagging injuries or need a day off from full-time duty. Alex Avila could use that kind of respite from time to time, and so could Cabrera.

The Tigers should sign Vladimir Guerrero, writes Drew Sharp. Here are some of the available free agents. There are solutions, writes Lynn Henning.

• The Philadelphia Phillies agreed to terms on a one-year deal with Cole Hamels. His agent expects an elite contract for Hamels.

The left-hander is entering a perfect storm for his free agency, with the Dodgers' ownership about to be settled -- the Southern Californian could be a tremendous bauble for L.A.'s next leaders and an extraordinary rotation partner for Clayton Kershaw. Hamels will hit free agency at age 28, and if he has a productive 2012 season, he'll be in line to ask for a deal of five or six years, at $20 million-$25 million a year.

And the Phillies are facing a very, very difficult decision, having already committed $104 million to six players for 2013, and with long-term obligations to Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Jonathan Papelbon and others in place. It figures that at some point, Hamels will cut off talks with the Phillies -- maybe at the start of the regular season. "He'd be so close to free agency by then," said one evaluator, "that it'd only make sense that he would test the market."

• The Texas Rangers should just say no to Prince Fielder's agent, writes Mac Engel. Fielder is still available.

• Yoenis Cespedes' small sample of winter games so far: a .105 batting average.

Carl Crawford had surgery. This sets his redemption back, writes Peter Abraham.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Texas continues to work on its Yu Darvish deal.

2. The Arizona Diamondbacks had a tremendous negotiating win in working out a deal with Joe Saunders. After haggling for weeks and months, they re-signed a pitcher they valued for exactly the price they signed him for, saving themselves about $3 million because they didn't simply settle for arbitration.

It's not bad for the pitcher, either: Saunders gets to stay with the Diamondbacks, in the town where he lives, and after pitching in 2012 for a team that has a chance to be successful, he can go back out in the free-agent market. That makes more sense than signing a two-year deal or going to an AL team.

The Diamondbacks have a deep rotation, with Trevor Cahill now joining Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Saunders and Josh Collmenter, with a nice group of young starters developing in the highest levels of the Arizona farm system.

3. Pablo Sandoval worked out a three-year deal, as John Shea writes.

4. Tim Lincecum seeks a record arbitration award. There is an all-important midpoint, as Andrew Baggarly writes.

5. There were a whole lot of arbitration settlements:

A) The Player Formerly Known As Leo Nunez, as Clark Spencer writes. The Marlins are going to arbitration with two players, it appears.

B) Toronto Blue Jays, who have two pending cases.

C) Tampa Bay Rays, who still have a case pending with Jeff Niemann, as Marc Topkin writes.

D) Detroit.

E) Kansas City.

F) Oakland.

G) Cleveland.

H) Minnesota.

I) Washington Nationals, who avoided arbitration with Jordan Zimmerman and Tom Gorzelanny but didn't reach deals with John Lannan and Michael Morse.

J) Pittsburgh.

K) The Yankees.

L) The Mets.

M) Boston.

N) Colorado.

O) Baltimore.

P) The Dodgers.

Q) San Diego.

R) The Cubs.

6. The Kansas City Royals need to get a long-term deal done with Alex Gordon, writes Sam Mellinger.

7. The Atlanta Braves re-signed Peter Moylan, which is what he wanted.

8. The Houston Astros signed Jack Cust, writes Zachary Levine.

9. The Brewers signed an outfielder.

10. The Cubs and Red Sox want the commissioner to rule on the Theo Epstein arbitration, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

11. Dayan Viciedo is pitching the White Sox to other players.

The historic price of Yu Darvish.

Spoiler [+]
Yu Darvish is the most expensive right-handed pitcher in baseball history.

Not that he's receiving all of that money, of course. The Texas Rangers are paying a $51.7 million posting fee to the Nippon Ham Fighters, and on top of that, Darvish is getting a contract of six years and $60 million, which means Texas' total investment in the pitcher is $111.7 million.

This sum is significantly below what the New York Yankees agreed to pay CC Sabathia ($161 million) when they signed him three winters ago and less than what the Philadelphia Phillies will pay Cliff Lee. There are some contractual bells and whistles and salary deferrals that can distend the appearance of what is actually paid out, but from the perspective of the player's union, here are the biggest deals:

[h4]Notable Japanese League free agents[/h4]
Japanese League players who have recently come to MLB (including the years and dollars of the contract)

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Red Sox '06-07

6/$52M*

Hideki Matsui

Yankees '02-03

3/$21M

Kazuo Matsui

Mets '03-04

3/$20.1M

Kenji Johjima

Mariners '05-06

3/$16.5M

Ichiro Suzuki

Mariners '00-01

3/$14.1M

Hideki Irabu

Yankees '96-97

4/$12.8M

Kaz Ishii

Dodgers '01-02

4/$12.8M
* Red Sox also paid $51 million posting fee
[th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
Terms
[/th]

1. Sabathia: $162,302,133

2. Johan Santana: $123,106,024

3. Barry Zito: $123,105,480

4. Lee: $118,629,556

5. Mike Hampton: $106,505,617

In the world of MLB accounting -- the assessment of payroll and possible luxury tax implications -- the $51.7 million posting fee won't count. Darvish will account for $10 million of the Rangers' payroll. But the total cost to the Rangers' organization is greater than any other right-hander -- more than Kevin Brown's $105 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, or the $103 million that Daisuke Matsuzaka cost the Boston Red Sox, or the extension that Roy Halladay received when he signed with the Phillies.

The Rangers have to pay the $51.7 million posting fee to Darvish's old team in the next five days, so in the assessment of what Texas is doling out, you could treat this as a signing bonus -- which would take the present-day value of Darvish's cost into the range of $115-120 million, according to one longtime agent.

From ESPN Stats and Info, some Darvish tidbits:

[h4]Yu Darvish[/h4]
Darvish in his last three Japanese League seasons.

2011

232*

10.7*

2010

202

9.9

2009

182

8.3
* Career highs
[th=""]
Season
[/th][th=""]
IP
[/th][th=""]
K/9 IP
[/th]

• Age 25
• 93-38 in five seasons with Nippon of Japanese League
• Finished with ERA below 2.00 in all five seasons in Japanese League
• Participated in 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2009 World Baseball Classic
• Born to Iranian father and Japanese mother
• Two-time Pacific League MVP (2007 and 2009)
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Spoke with a number of executives after the Darvish signing was complete, and across the board the soft predictions regarding Prince Fielder remain the same: Generally, executives believe he will land with either Texas or the Washington Nationals.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels says any deal with Texas has to be "creative" -- i.e., on Texas' terms.

Adam Kilgore speculates within this piece that perhaps the public meeting with the Rangers was designed to send a message to the Nationals.

There's not much leverage for Fielder at this point, partly because the Nationals and Rangers aren't desperate in any way; Fielder makes them better, but executives on either team would be comfortable going to spring training with their teams constituted as they are currently.

Given these circumstances, you wonder if the Rangers or Nationals would respond to a request for an opt-out clause for Fielder with this: OK, we'll let you walk away from the contract after three years … if we can, too.

Wrote here last week (and it's worth repeating) that with Fielder in a relatively vulnerable negotiating position, wouldn't it make sense for the Dodgers' Frank McCourt to swoop in, make a deal and add to the perceived value of his franchise, as bidders prepare to make offers when he starts to auction his team next week?

For the Nationals, the signing of Fielder would be a decision that would have ripple effects -- so it's not a surprise that the team is finding out what it would take to keep Ryan Zimmerman with a contract extension. It's hard to imagine the Nationals signing Fielder and retaining Zimmerman beyond 2013.

• Major League Baseball continues to work toward the expansion of the playoff field from eight to 10 teams for the upcoming season, and the greatest impediment is the fact that the regular-season schedule is already set, starting on April 4 and ending Oct. 3. The one-game playoff between wild-card teams would have to happen immediately after the end of the regular season, given that the World Series will be scheduled to start around Oct. 24.

Other issues would have to be resolved, as well, such as the question of how to handle ties at the end of the regular season. If two teams tied for the No. 6 spot, a playoff game would be required, of course.

But it's possible that with the value of winning a division ramped up so dramatically under the new format -- a division winner gets a bye, while the wild-card teams will have to play one elimination game -- teams will want a playoff to break first-place division ties. Under the 2011 format, if teams tied for first place had one of the top four records in their respective league, a division championship was determined by best head-to-head record.

What if, under the new format, the Los Angeles Angels and Rangers tied for first place in the AL West with 96 wins, the Detroit Tigers won 94 games to win the Central, the Tampa Bay Rays won the East with 93 victories, and the Yankees clinched a wild-card spot with 91 victories? The winner of the AL West would be the No. 1 seed, and the second-place team would play the Yankees in an elimination game. So would it be better to have a one-game playoff between the Rangers and Angels, or just determine the winner by head-to-head play?

It's under discussion. There remains a high level of confidence that MLB will use the new 10-team format for the upcoming season.

• With spring training just a month away and jobs growing scarce, agents and at least a couple of rival general managers jumped at the chance to pitch ideas at Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski right after news broke that Victor Martinez is expected to miss the season.

Dombrowski said over the phone on Wednesday that he hasn't determined exactly what course of action he will take to replace Martinez, and it may be that he'll wait longer to decide. "You're not going to find a player comparable to Victor," said Dombrowski, but then he went on to explain that in the big picture, there could be worse crises. It's not as if you're losing your everyday catcher, he said, in which you literally cannot find a suitable replacement at this stage in the winter. With the DH position, there is greater flexibility. "We have until Opening Day, and we have some maneuverability," he said.

For example (and these ideas are my own, not Dombrowski's): The Tigers could choose to sign a veteran outfielder, such as Cody Ross, and use him in an outfield rotation that would generate a DH candidate on any given day. Or the Tigers could sign one of the veteran DHs on the market, such as Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui (if Dombrowski wanted a left-handed hitter) or Vladimir Guerrero (if he wanted a right-handed hitter). Or he could wait for a trade candidate to emerge, such as Martin Prado. (Again, all names are my own speculation.)

"I'm just going to digest it," said Dombrowski. "This gives me a chance to put names together. If there's a name that jumps out, we'll react quickly."

Jim Leyland says he's eager to solve the new lineup issue, writes Drew Sharp. The Tigers will wait for the right deal to come up, writes Lynn Henning.

• As part of Ubaldo Jimenez's effort to get back to where he was in 2010, he is doing extensive strengthening in his legs and core this offseason.

• The Toronto Blue Jays are hopeful that Colby Rasmus will be more comfortable in his first full season with the team and healthier. He hurt his wrist in August of last season and when he came back -- without the benefit of a minor league rehab assignment -- Rasmus finished the season with four hits in his last 45 at-bats, three doubles and a single.

• It's possible that Peter O'Malley will join forces with the Disney family in bidding for the Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.

• There is intrigue but no answers yet in the question of the Padres' ownership transition, writes Tim Sullivan.

• The mayor of St. Petersburg postures in this piece.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Yoenis Cespedes mashed his first home run in winter ball.

2. Nick Piecoro breaks down the Arizona Diamondbacks' payroll.

3. This has been a good offseason for the San Francisco Giants, writes Bruce Jenkins, who likes the Lincecum situation for the team.

4. The Nationals' negotiations with MASN will have an impact on the team on the field, writes Adam Kilgore.

5. The Seattle Mariners have signed Oliver Perez.

6. Jorge Posada is content with his decision, writes Dan Martin.

7. The Baltimore Orioles have signed a New Zealander.

8. The Minnesota Twins finalized the signing of Joel Zumaya.

Breakout prospects for 2012.

Spoiler [+]
Interest in the Major League Baseball draft has grown by leaps and bounds in the last decade. The event was once an outpost solely for the hardcore, but thanks to great coverage -- including a national television audience -- even many casual fans can name their team's first-round pick from last June and maybe even a big bonus baby from the later rounds.

Believe it or not, there was a time when the draft was a secret. With MLB fearing the college game would use the draft as a free recruiting tool, lists were once kept shrouded until a player signed. With 1,530 players selected in the 2011, there are still plenty of secrets to be unhidden.

Here are 10 players, not taken in the first-round or given a greatly over-slot bonus, who are poised to break out in 2012 and become familiar to fans everywhere.


[h3]Carter Capps, RHP, Seattle Mariners[/h3]


sea.gif




The 121st-overall pick and only supplemental third-round pick, Carter converted to pitching at Division II powerhouse Mt. Olive in North Carolina and turned himself into a significant pro prospect.

At 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds, Capps certainly looks the part, and he backs it up with a low-to-mid 90s fastball that he complements with a potentially plus slider. Because he's so new to the craft, he still looks like a catcher who is trying to pitch, but he missed bats in his pro debut (21 strikeouts in 18 innings for low Class A Clinton) and could move quickly if swtiched to a bullpen role.


[h3]Bobby Crocker, OF, Oakland Athletics[/h3]


oak.gif




Crocker's numbers at Cal Poly don't jump out at you. While his .339 batting average led the Mustangs in 2011, it's not in the range one expects from elite players. What Crocker does have, and what made him a fourth-round pick, is athleticism.

At a muscular 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, he's built like an NFL safety and has above-average raw power that he's yet to tap into, as well as some speed. A .322/.367/.441 line in the New York-Penn league has some hoping that he's just starting to scratch the surface of his potential.


[h3]Matt Duran, OF, New York Yankees[/h3]


nyy.gif




While it's not exactly a baseball hotbed, the Yankees do scout their local area intensely, and a quick drive up I-95 allowed them to find Duran at New Rochelle (N.Y.) HIgh School, selecting him in the fourth round.

He had an impressive debut in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, batting .301/.365/.506 in 23 games, and the pressure will be on his bat throughout his career, as he's stocky, slow and already labeled by many as a bat-only prospect -- albeit with a potentially impressive bat.


[h3]Desmond Henry, OF, Texas Rangers[/h3]


tex.gif




Speed is always a premium in any draft, and straight out of Compton comes Henry, the Rangers' fourth-round pick. Not only can he fly, he also has strength and some potential for some power down the road.

His tools were worthy of the first-round, but there are some big questions about his hitting ability and a .140 batting average in 57 at-bats in the rookie-level Arizona League did little to alleviate those concerns. He's not ready for a full-season league, but four months of spring training could lead to big things come June, when the short-season circuits begin play.


[h3]William Jerez, OF, Boston Red Sox[/h3]


bos.gif




A Dominican native who came to the United States as a teenager, Jerez played his high school baseball at the same school in New York as Yankees pitching prospect Dellin Betances. And while the Yankees had interest in Jerez, the Red Sox surprised the industry when they selected him earlier than expected with the 81st-overall pick.

A pure tools bet, Jerez is a long-limbed fast-twitch athlete with above-average speed and the potential for power once he fills out. He's a risky player who could take a long time to develop, but if he puts it together, look out.


[h3]Jorge Lopez, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]


mil.gif




The Brewers are rebuilding their system after emptying it out to acquire Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, and the 2011 draft was a step in the right direction. While much of the attention was paid to their two first-round college pitchers (Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley), Lopez has as much potential as any of them, although he's further away and much riskier.

His body screams projection, and the 18-year-old from Puerto Rico should gain some velocity on what is currently a low-90s fastball to go with what is already one of the best curveballs in the system.


[h3]Cory Mazzoni, RHP, New York Mets[/h3]


nym.gif




A second-round pick after a solid career at North Carolina State, Mazzoni has already garnered the attention of some Mets fans by allowing just two runs while striking out 18 in 13 innings across two levels in his pro debut.

Those numbers came in short stints after a heavy college workload, and he'll return to starting in 2012, equipped with a fastball and slider that both rate as above-average. His early success has some tempted to see if he could move quickly as a reliever, but for now, that's a backup plan.


[h3]Anthony Meo, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]


ari.gif




Meo made headlines last May at Coastal Carolina when he threw a no-hitter against Radford in the Big South Tournament, and many thought he could slide into the first round last June. Arizona was pleasantly surprised to see him still on the board when its second-round pick arrived. At 6-2, 185 pounds, he's not the most physical of pitchers, but he does have above-average velocity and command and a good breaking ball.

That combination could have him moving quickly through the Arizona system even if his upside is a bit limited.


[h3]Jeff Soptic, RHP, Chicago White Sox[/h3]


chw.gif




While the White Sox have tried do address the worst system in baseball with some off-season trades, they do have some hope coming from their most recent draft, including Soptic, a third-round pick who reportedly touched 100 mph during a game last spring at Johnson County CC in Overland Park, Kan.

Triple-digit fastballs usually mean seven-figure bonuses, but Soptic is far from a finished product, as his slider needs work, even for him to become a successful reliever. Still, much like how you can't teach height in the NBA, you can't teach velocity, and Soptic has that building block covered.


[h3]Dillon Thomas, OF, Colorado Rockies[/h3]


col.gif




Scouts had trouble wrapping their head around Thomas this spring. Nothing about him is pretty, including his swing, but he was a huge performer on the highly competitive Houston high school circuit. After being taken in the fourth-round of the draft, he hit .328/.361/.414 in 15 games for Casper in the rookie-level Pioneer League.

He doesn't run well, he's limited defensively, but the hit tool is the one that trumps all, and Thomas has it.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Nats, Zimmerman talking extension[/h3]
11:17AM ET

[h5]Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals [/h5]


The Washington Nationals have been busy recently, what with trading for Gio Gonzalez and being seen as the favorites to land Prince Fielder. It appears there's now another item on their To Do list that's getting some attention.

MLB.com's Bill Ladson reported that the club has had talks with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman about an extension.

Zimmerman, who has two years and $26 million remaining on his contract, has indicated he would like to stay with the Nats for his entire career.

It seems unlikely that any headway would be made on this front before the club makes a decision one way or another on Fielder, who is bound to cost a pretty penny. In order for the Nats to know how much they have to allot toward Zimmerman, they'll need to figure out where they stand on Fielder first.

One good sign? The franchise is negotiating television rights and revenues with their provider, MASN, and there's a chance the Nationals could double or triple the $29 million they received from MASN in 2011, according to one person familiar with the situation.

That would certainly be good for business.

- Jason Catania

http://[h3]Posada not an option for Yanks[/h3]
11:03AM ET

[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]


The New York Yankees essentially posted a Help Wanted sign for a designated hitter when they agreed to send Jesus Montero to Seattle in last week's blockbuster deal. A few more candidates apparently have inquired about the job.

One name that will not be up for consideration is recently-retired Jorge Posada, who told the New York Post's Dan Martin that he will remain out of the game. Posada served as DH last year.

Newsday's Ken Davidoff reported that reps for Vladimir Guerrero and Raul Ibanez have contacted the Yankees.

Earlier this week, we saw Jack Cust choose to move onto the Houston Astros, taking away another potential DH option.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted earlier this week that http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4594/carlos-penaCarlos Pena is in the club's sights. It also has been reported that the Yankees would consider bringing back Johnny Damon, who spent last season in Tampa.

Whoever lands the job could be working at a discount. While the Yankees want to add a bat, they want to avoid adding to a payroll that has risen to about $212 million with the signing of a http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28950/hiroki-kurodaHiroki Kuroda, says Marc Carig of the Star Ledger.

The Yankees could free up money with another trade. The addition of Kuroda and Pineda has revived speculation that the Yankees could step up efforts to trade http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4153/aj-burnettA.J. Burnett or http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28638/phil-hughesPhil Hughes.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney had more on the Yankees' DH situation in Tuesday's blog:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
The DH in the Bronx
"The Yankees may decide in the end to devote a lot of the DH at-bats to Eduardo Nunez -- but not necessarily with Nunez getting the at-bats at DH. They could give Alex Rodriguez 25 to 40 games at DH to help keep him healthy, with Nunez starting at third, and Derek Jeter could get some games at DH, with Nunez starting at shortstop."
http://[h3]No timetable in Epstein comp[/h3]
10:58AM ET

[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]


It's been three months since Theo Epstein bolted Boston for Chicago, and the Red Sox and Cubs have yet to reach agreement on compensation for the departed executive.

With no deal in sight, the Cubs and Red Sox have requested that their stalemate be resolved by commissioner Bud Selig. That move was apparently initiated by Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino late last month, reports Gordon Wittenmyer in Wednesday's Chicago Sun-Times.

The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham confirmed with MLB that Selig is involved in the process, but no timetable for a decision was given.

In an interview earlier this month on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show, Epstein insisted that the Red Sox shouldn't be expecting much based on historical precedent, citing the minimal compensation issued when Andy MacPhail moved to the Cubs in 1994.

Epstein considers his move to the Cubs a promotion, while the Red Sox likely view it as a lateral move that requires more compensation.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Oviedo trade bait?[/h3]
10:52AM ET

[h5]Miami Marlins [/h5]


The closer formerly known as Leo Nunez has avoided arbitration with the Miami Marlins on a $6 million deal for 2012, tweets Joe Capozzi. Juan Carlos Oviedo is likely to become the subject of trade talks between now and the start of the season, as Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported.

The Marlins can house such a player, and his contract, but are already paying Heath Bell $27 million over three years to handle the ninth inning. Paying a setup man $6 million is rare in baseball -- and would also push the team's payroll north of $95 million -- suggesting the Fish could look to move Oviedo.

Clubs that could have interest include the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles, each of whom has shown interest in free agent closer Francisco Cordero.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Wiggy to fill in for Howard[/h3]
10:31AM ET

[h5]Ryan Howard | Phillies [/h5]


http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6097/ryan-howardRyan Howard appears ahead of schedule in his return from a ruptured left Achilles, with a potential May return on the table. As for who will handle first base duties until the lefty slugger is ready to return? General manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. gave a pretty good indication to ESPN Insider Jim Bowden.

Bowden tweeted that Amaro told him Ty Wigginton will see the majority of play at first, and Jim Thome will get the occasional start, too.

Howard, who has been cleared for strengthening exercises, could still be out half the year, which could mean several players share the position, including John Mayberry Jr., Ty Wigginton and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5576/laynce-nixLaynce Nix all fill in.

The Phillies' lineup will look different until the Howard is back, and since Thome won't play everyday, there could be games when Wigginton or Mayberry are batting cleanup.

A more likely option, however, is for the Phillies to use http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4258/jimmy-rollinsJimmy Rollins and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5409/shane-victorinoShane Victorino at the top with http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28687/hunter-penceHunter Pence and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utleyChase Utley hitting third and fourth. That clears the Nos. 5 and 6 spots for the fill-in first baseman.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Cespedes hits one out[/h3]
10:25AM ET

[h5]Yoenis Cespedes [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
[h5]Clubs linked to Cespedes[/h5]
Yoenis Cespedes has established residency and is waiting for Major League Baseball to grant him free agency. In the meantime, he's decided to play in the Dominican Winter League, which hasn't been a good choice early on in the process. The 26-year-old outfielder started off 2-for-19 with six strikeouts, leaving many to wonder what he has to gain by playing.

He did, however, hit his first home run Thursday, as our own Buster Olney tweeted video of the shot.

The clubs expected to be bid heavily for Cespedes include the Miami Marlins and the Detroit Tigers, especially now that Victor Martinez's 2012 is in doubt. Others who have expressed interest? The Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, although it's unlikely the Yanks or Sox have the financial ability to spend tens of millions at this time.

The dollars he's likely to command start at $30 million and there have been figures up as high as $65 million tossed around the industry.

- Jason Catania

http://[h3]Yanks looking to move A.J.?[/h3]
8:42AM ET

[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]


Since the trade of Jesus Montero to Seattle in exchange for right-hander Michael Pineda, most of the buzz about the New York Yankees is centered on the designated hitter position. Several names have been bandied about, including former Yankees, Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. General manager Brian Cashman may have other ideas on the burner.

Eric Chavez could be the next name to show on the transaction page, as the Yankees look for another option at the infield corner to spell Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Burnett.

Recently released veteran Mark Teahen could be another candidate for the role, and Cashman could be looking to wrangle up two roles -- DH and corner infield backup -- in one swoop.

CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman tweeted Thursday that Cashman doesn't mean to spend more than $1-2 million on a DH type at this point. The one possibility that could change things would be if the Yanks can find a taker for A.J. Burnett -- by eating most of the $33 million he's owed the next two years -- and save at least some money that could be spent on another hitter.

Part of the reason Burnett could be moved is because the starting rotation is more than full.

With Montero gone, Francisco Cervelli's backup catcher gig appears to be safe for now, but prospect Austin Romine could battle for that job in spring, if not by midseason.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Interest in Cuban southpaw[/h3]
8:34AM ET

[h5]Gerardo Concepcion [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler are not the only Cuban defectors hoping to sign a contract with a club in Major League Baseball this offseason. Left-hander Gerardo Concepcion has been granted free agency by the league, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes.com.

Concepcion, 18, is drawing interest from both Chicago clubs, the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies, and that group could grow by the time he signs.

At 6-foot-1 and about 180 pounds, Concepcion doesn't fit the physical profile of a frontline arm, which may limit how clubs value him compared to Cespedes and Soler, who are outfielders, but Concepcion was the 2010-11 Rookie of the Year in Cuba's Serie Nacional.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Rangers and Prince Fielder[/h3]
8:31AM ET

[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers | Interested: Rangers? [/h5]


Free agent first baseman http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5915/prince-fielderPrince Fielder had more than a passing interest in what happened Wednesday afternoon when the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangersTexas Rangers signed Japanese righthander Yu Darvish to a six-year deal worth $60 million guaranteed.

The Rangers met with Fielder last week, according to multiple reports, and the club certainly has the revenue stream to spend on such a free agent, even after forking over more than $110 million total on Darvish between the negotiating rights and contract. ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden tweeted Sunday that the Rangers can afford both Darvish and Fielder.

Earlier this week, Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported the Rangers are downplaying the chances of landing both Darvish and Fielder, "barring something changing," as one source put it.

Wednesday, shortly after the contract with Darvish was announced, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that the Rangers are interested in Fielder "on a short-term deal," suggesting the Washington Nationals -- still considered the industry favorite, according to Morosi -- and perhaps Seattle Mariners may end up the highest bidders.
 
Top 15 prospects: San Diego Padres.
Spoiler [+]
The San Diego system is deep. What’s most impressive is that the organization has been able to bulk up its minor league depth through a variety of methods: drafting, international free agency and trades. In particular, scouting director Jaron Madison had an outstanding draft in 2011. Even with the loss of some of its front office talent much more remains. The loss of young hurler Mat Latos through a trade with Cincinnati was a ballsy move and it stings a little but the organization is ultimately stronger for it. This is an organization on the upswing.

1. Yonder Alonso, 1B
BORN: April 8, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 1st round (7th overall), University of Miami (by Cincinnati)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th (Reds)

With the recent trade of fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Chicago Cubs, Alonso is set to be San Diego’s starting first baseman in 2012. His ability to use the entire field and provide opposite-field pop will suit him well in his new ball park. Although he doesn’t have prototypical power (His power grades a 50), Alonso has the ability to hit for average and he has a strong eye at the plate that leads to a healthy number of walks. No longer blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati, the ugly experiment of placing Alonso is left field is over. He’ll return to his natural position of first base for the Padres, where he could eventually provide average to slightly-above-average defense at the position.

2. Yasmani Grandal, C
BORN: Nov. 8, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round (12th overall), University of Miami (by Cincinnati)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th (Reds)

Like Yonder Alonso, Grandal was recently acquired from the Cincinnati Reds at the cost of young, talented hurler Mat Latos. The catcher is not as advanced as his trade-mate but he should open 2012 in triple-A and is about a year away from challenging the underrated Nick Hundley for the starting catcher’s job in San Diego. Grandal is a strong offensive-minded catcher who has hit well everywhere he’s played. He provides a solid batting average, power, and takes a good number of walks. His ability to switch hit gives him added value. On the defensive side, Grandal has his detractors, although he’s made some strides to clean up his receiving. He threw out more than 30% of base runners in ’11.

3. Rymer Liriano, OF
BORN: June 20, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

A key international signing, Liriano’s results have started to catch up to his tools. Just 20 years old in 2011, Liriano dominated low-A ball with a wRC+ of 157. He hit for average, got on base and ran like the wind. After nabbing 31 bases in ’10, he more than doubled that last season with 66 steals. The youngster showed some pop too with an ISO rate of .180; he could eventually grow into 20-25 home run power, which is good because his lower half is thickening up and that could eventually rob him of some of his speed. Liriano currently has the range to play center field but he’ll likely end up as a right-fielder where he’ll provide above-average arm strength.

4. Jedd Gyorko, 3B
BORN: Sept. 23, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 2nd round, University of West Virginia
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th

An excellent value as a second round draft pick, Gyorko has hit better than expected in pro ball, although he’s also played in some strong hitter’s parks. A poor-fielding college shortstop, he’s settled in at third base where he’s OK thanks to decent range but his arm is average-at-best for the position. The club will eventually find a spot for him, though, as he posted a wRC+ of 169 in high-A ball before moving up to double-A where he continued to rake. On the year, Gyorko slugged 25 home runs, although his over-the-fence pop diminished once he left the cozy confines of the California League (ISO rate from .274 to .140). In the Majors, he’ll probably hit 15-20 homers, although that number could be muted further while playing half his games in San Diego. Luckily, he’ll also projects to hit for average thanks to his willingness to use the entire field.

5. Austin Hedges, C
BORN: Aug. 18, 1992
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 2nd round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

The best defensive catcher in the 2011 draft, among both the prep and college ranks, Hedges could eventually carve out a similar career to former Padre Brad Ausmus. The young catcher is a plus defender both in terms of receiving and throwing skills. He also calls an advanced game and shows good leadership for his age. At the plate, though, there are questions. Hedges is too aggressive for his own good at the plate but he has plenty of time to hone his hitting skills, especially now that he has Yasmani Grandal ahead of him on the depth chart.

6. Casey Kelly, RHP
BORN: Oct. 4, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 1st round (30th overall), Florida HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Unranked (traded shortly after the Padres Top 10 was posted)

Kelly entered pro ball with the Red Sox organization as a two-way player but eventually gave up hitting (His preferred role) to focus full time on pitching. The right-hander has a decent year in 2011, his first in the Padres organization. After spending 2010 in double-A, Kelly returned to the same level in ’11 and posted a 3.98 ERA (3.59 FIP) in 142.1 innings of work. He displays above-average control for his age thanks in part due to repeatable mechanics and natural athleticism. Kelly, though, did not strike out many batters and never really has and he also gave up a lot of hits – both of which combine to limit his ceiling a bit. His heater does get good sink and he induces a lot of ground-ball outs so he’ll need a strong defense behind him. Kelly’s repertoire includes an 88-94 mph fastball, potentially-plus curveball and a developing changeup. He has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter.

7. Robbie Erlin, LHP
BORN: Oct. 8, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 3rd round, California HS (by Texas)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th (Rangers)

Erlin is sort of a left-handed version of Casey Kelly in the sense that his main strength is his above-average control. The southpaw strikes out more batters, though, because he has added deception to his delivery, mixes his pitches like a veteran, and also has more run to his average-velocity heater. Erlin’s repertoire is a little more well-rounded, as well, with a solid curveball and a changeup that is quickly turning into a plus pitch. Acquired last season from Texas, his overall package is better suited to the National League and he could really thrive in San Diego. Erlin has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter but he could perhaps pitch up to the level of a No. 2 starter given his home ballpark.

8. Cory Spangenberg, 2B/3B
BORN: March 16, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (10th overall), Florida Junior College
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

Spangenberg would likely rank higher on this list if his defensive home was a little more settled. An amateur third baseman, he was switched to second base in his pro debut and showed good range and but he needs to clean up his actions and foot work – something he’s surely to do with more experience. Center field could also eventually be another home for Spangenberg. The athletic prospect is an above-average hitter and runner with a below-average power tool. After walking twice as much as he struck out in short-season ball, his BB-K rate shifted significantly from 2.07 to 0.33 (and he also drove the ball a lot less frequently) when he was promoted to low-A, suggesting he might need some more seasoning in A-ball before being pushed too hard.

9. Joe Ross, RHP
BORN: May 21, 1993
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (25th overall), California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

The brother of Oakland reliever Tyson Ross, Joe Ross has even more potential than his older brother because he has all the ingredients necessary to stick in the starting rotation. A strong athlete with a solid pitcher’s frame, the right-hander showcases three solid pitches in a low-90s fastball (that can touch 94-95 mph), potentially-plus changeup and a developing curveball. Ross didn’t pitch after signing but Ross could begin 2012 in low-A ball given his advanced feel for pitching.

10. Joe Wieland, RHP
BORN: Jan. 21, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 4th round, Nevada HS (by Texas)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off (Rangers)

Another piece from the Mike Adams trade with Texas in ’11, Wieland has developed quickly as a pro and currently projects as a No. 3 starter at the big league level. He split last season between high-A and double-A, posting excellent numbers at both levels, although his strikeout rate dropped once he reached the senior level. Wieland displays above-average control for his age. He has an average fastball in the 87-92 mph range (it can touch 93-94 mph at times) and his repertoire also includes three other average offerings in a curveball, slider, and changeup. Wieland has the ceiling of a No. 3 or 4 starter.


The Next Five:​
11. Keyvius Sampson, RHP: Injury issues have slowed Sampson’s ascent to top prospect but he’s starting to get the recognition that he deserves. He used his two above-average pitches (fastball, changeup) to strike out a healthy number of batters (10.91 K/9) in low-A ball last season. Sampson also showed improved durability by almost tripling his innings total from 43 in ’10 to 118 in ’11. As he moves up the ladder, the right-hander will need to tighten up his curveball or he could end up as a set-up man in the Majors. With a number of solid pitching prospects ahead of him, the Padres organization can afford to be patient with his development.

12. James Darnell, 3B/OF: Soley a third baseman prior to 2011, Darnell also received 24 appearances in the outfield while playing at both double-A and triple-A – thanks to the presence of Chase Headley at the MLB level. Darnell is not an overly gifted fielder at the hot corner, he’s not very athletic and his main source of value is tied up in his bat (and power). As a result, he may not be a very successful player if half his games occur in San Diego’s spacious park. A trade would be the best thing for him and the organization.

13. Brad Boxberger, RHP: Part of the loot for Mat Latos, Boxberger has the chance to develop into a high-leverage reliever for the Padres. The right-hander has a fastball that sits around 93-95 mph with good movement. His slider has the potential to develop into a plus pitch and he may eventually ditch the below-average changeup or at least use it extremely sparingly. If he become more consistent with command and control than Boxberger could see some time as a big league closer.

14. Jaff Decker, OF: After missing a good chunk of 2010 due to injury, Decker return at full strength in ’11 but he hit just .236 at double-A. He hit very well in the low minors but has struggled to hit for average since reaching high-A ball, leading to question marks about his overall potential. Decker doesn’t have much defensive value and is limited to left field or first base (which he’s really too short for at 5’10
 
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