Of course Weaver and Haren at the top is scary, but that's where it stops for me. I've stated my thoughts on Santana (inconsistency) and Wilson (playoff deficiencies). Like Texas, the Angels have easily a top 5 rotation (perhaps even top 3) in baseball but I prefer the depth of the Rangers and I trust their front office as judges of talent. Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels have a great eye for young pitching. I also admit that I'm putting a lot of stock into Yu Darvish, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. Darvish will be as good as advertised, unlike C.J. Wilson.
I get what your saying but the chances of the Angels and Rangers in the playoffs together is slim until the new playoff system kicks in (not sure if that's next year)
and in order to get there you have to have a dominant staff I'll take the Angels of the Rangers staff right now.
Darvish has to prove himself, I'm sure everyone is excited to see what he's got. But we have seen a ton of Asian prospects go bust here.
Of course Weaver and Haren at the top is scary, but that's where it stops for me. I've stated my thoughts on Santana (inconsistency) and Wilson (playoff deficiencies). Like Texas, the Angels have easily a top 5 rotation (perhaps even top 3) in baseball but I prefer the depth of the Rangers and I trust their front office as judges of talent. Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels have a great eye for young pitching. I also admit that I'm putting a lot of stock into Yu Darvish, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. Darvish will be as good as advertised, unlike C.J. Wilson.
I get what your saying but the chances of the Angels and Rangers in the playoffs together is slim until the new playoff system kicks in (not sure if that's next year)
and in order to get there you have to have a dominant staff I'll take the Angels of the Rangers staff right now.
Darvish has to prove himself, I'm sure everyone is excited to see what he's got. But we have seen a ton of Asian prospects go bust here.
When you do a lot of work with projections and make a lot of predictions, one of the hardest things to get used to is the amount of times you'll get things completely wrong. Every year, there is a handful of players for whom events don't even out and they end up missing their projections by a mile. There are a lot of reasons for a player to be disappointing, from mechanical flaws to injuries to the most frustrating reason: "dunno."
Looking back at the 2011 ZiPS projections, we thought we'd take a look at who failed to meet their projections by the biggest margins, examine what went wrong and look ahead to the 2012 season.
It seemed like a match made in heaven: one of the most consistent sluggers in baseball getting to DH and play in a solid hitters' park. It didn't quite work out that way, with Dunn missing his projection by a greater margin than any player ZiPS has projected in the last decade.
The only consolation is that while there were good reasons to not be confident about Dunn down the road, nobody really saw a top slugger like Dunn slugging .277 when he was 31.
Going forward, it's hard to have any faith in Dunn. A decline of this magnitude is almost entirely unprecedented in baseball history. Without Dunn having lost an arm or something similar before the 2011 season, there's no easy explanation for his downfall. Dunn could come back in 2012, but after last season, both the White Sox and fantasy owners need to be skeptical. Even if Dunn has a major comeback, it's going to be mostly in the form of home runs.
Compared to Dunn's fall, Heyward's 2012 was a minor bump in the road. While Heyward underperformed in 2011, he didn't have a collapse of historic standards, but simply a disappointing year given his rookie campaign.
Luckily, in Heyward's case, his nagging back injuries provide a reason for the down year. While back problems can sometimes linger -- they ruined Clint Hurdle's career -- Heyward is still a young player likely to turn it around. And Heyward's .260 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is bound to increase considerably in 2012 (his BABIP was .335 in 2010).
One of the elite free agent outfielders last winter (another, Jayson Werth, was also a disappointment), Crawford had a lackluster first year in Boston, putting up his worst season since his first full season with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2003.
The good news for Crawford is that he's still just 30 and doesn't fit the profile of a guy, like George Bell or Mo Vaughn, who would decline at an early age. Crawford's had some nagging injuries, and the days of him hitting 19 triples in a year are gone, but he still has a broad range of skills.
The biggest concern is Crawford's wrist, which may not be healthy at the start of the season.
Rios is no stranger to crazy-bad seasons -- it was his collapse in 2009 that made him available to the White Sox on waivers despite coming off three solid years. Can he recover from a big dropoff again?
What makes it harder this time around is that Rios is a few years older, and his bad year was even worse than the last one. Luckily for Rios, the White Sox are retooling, and he'll get plenty of opportunities to show he's not done yet.
Huff, who turned 35 a few weeks ago, was the oldest player on this list to underperform, which is never a good sign. While Huff has had this strange pattern of alternate good years and off years for a while, it's dangerous to expect quirky things like that to continue at his age.
The Giants still retain their fondness for Huff. While he should have a better year, they need to be thinking about who comes after him.
On paper, Jimenez's 2011 was a major letdown after finishing third in the NL Cy Young race in 2010, but there are very good reasons to see the season as an outlier. His strikeout and walk rates stayed exactly the same, and while his home run allowed rate went up, it was still in solid territory.
Jimenez's 3.67 FIP last year was right around his career 3.60 FIP, suggesting that he was more effective than his 4.68 ERA would indicate. Cleveland gave up some excellent prospects to get Jimenez, but given his contract situation ($18 million over three years if the club options are picked up), he'll be the Indians' ace for a while.
If any player ever needed a change of scenery, it has to be Zambrano. After two years of fighting with the team, a trip to the disqualified list, and a few retirement threats, the Cubs paid the Marlins most of the $18 million Zambrano is set to make in 2012 just to move on from him.
Last year was a disaster, but it's also the first time Zambrano wasn't a contributor on the field, and he's a good risk for the Marlins to take considering the push they're making for at least the NL wild card. Even better news for fantasy owners: If he pitches well, you get his numbers without having to personally deal with him.
Like Jimenez's, Dempster's 2011 was deceptively bad. Now, Dempster isn't anywhere near as solid a hurler as Jimenez, but last year's 3.91 FIP was indistinguishable from his 3.87 and 3.99 the previous two seasons. As long as the Cubs are content with Dempster being pretty durable and somewhere in the vicinity of league-average, they won't be too disappointed with him in 2012.
If he gets his ERA half a run lower as ZiPS says, Dempster does go deep enough into games to get a fair amount of wins for an average starter.
Last season was supposed to be Scherzer's breakout year, giving the Tigers a solid No. 2 behind Justin Verlander. Verlander did his job (and then some), but Scherzer's inconsistency was a contributing factor to Detroit having a shallow rotation that let the Indians make things interesting for a while.
Scherzer won 15 games last year, but that had a lot to do with the Tigers' offense. Scherzer will likely improve on his 2011 performance, but he may win a few fewer games given that the team offense will probably drop off a bit in 2012.
Ryan Braun should offer to give back NL MVP award.
Spoiler [+]
From the moment the news of Ryan Braun's positive test for performance-enhancing drugs broke in December, he has maintained his innocence, texting to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the PED charge was "B.S.," and he and his representatives followed through with an appeal that was heard on Thursday in New York. He's the only person who can know, with certainty, how this happened, and he insists he did nothing wrong.
But by now Braun understands that no matter how his appeal is decided, the perception of him has been shaped. Under the terms of baseball's drug prevention program, the positive test from October means, quite literally, that he is guilty until proven innocent, and this is true for many in the court of public opinion, as well.
This is a reality that Roger Clemens didn't seem to comprehend the instant his name was published in the Mitchell Report: He had already lost what he was trying to protect.
The best chance for Braun to extricate something good from his situation would be to stand up on the dais Saturday, hold the NL MVP trophy in his hands -- and offer to give it back to the Baseball Writers' Association of America at its annual New York dinner, even while maintaining his innocence. This gesture would elevate Braun and separate him from the legions of athletes who have issued denials in the face of accusations of performance-enhancing drug use.
Braun could say something along these lines when he speaks Saturday night :
I want to thank the Baseball Writers' Association for this award. But you all know, I failed a drug test in October, right in the middle of the playoffs.
I don't believe I did anything wrong. I didn't take any drugs meant to enhance my performance. My case is under appeal, which was heard here in New York this week, and I remain hopeful that the decision will go my way and that I can be ready to help the Brewers at the start of the 2012 season.
But I also understand the importance and the stature of the Most Valuable Player Award, which has been won by the likes of Ted Williams and Hank Aaron and Sandy Koufax and Cal Ripken. I do not want my situation to cast any negative light on the award, and if the Baseball Writers believe it's in the best interest of baseball that somebody else would be the NL MVP for 2011, I am here to offer back this award, for the sake of the sport we all love. Thank you.
It would be the right thing to do. For baseball and for Braun, who would be lauded for the gracious offer.
And here's the Machiavellian side to this: Braun has to know by now that the odds of him winning his appeal are very, very slim because of how problematic that decision would become for baseball, for a couple of reasons:
1. Even if Braun's positive test is the result of him taking medication that he did not realize would trigger the failure, he and all players are still responsible for knowing exactly what they put in their bodies. If Braun wins his appeal, it would set an enormous loophole for all players -- including PED users -- to generate after-the-fact explanations for positive tests, while armed with a doctor's note.
Current players have been told over and over and over that before ingesting any substance, they must know whether that substance contains anything that is banned under the drug-testing rules.
2. If Braun wins his appeal while maintaining that the substance he took -- for whatever reason -- unexpectedly generated a staggering amount of synthetic testosterone, well, you can bet that a whole lot of other players looking to beat the system will take the same substance, under the premise that they took it for the same reason that Braun did. There have been columnists who have written with great sympathy for Braun, even without knowing the precise facts of the case. There are a lot of players who privately don't feel the same way, because they understand that the drug-testing rules are structured the way they are out of necessity, out of practical realities.
Braun presumably knows that the Baseball Writers' Association, citing precedent, has already indicated that it will not take the award away from Braun.
Never mind that, this is completely at odds with the extreme anti-drug stance that an enormous bloc of writers has embraced in the Hall of Fame voting -- maybe 40-45 percent. It makes no sense that writers would essentially whitewash the history of performances for Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens while acting on behalf of the Hall of Fame, yet at the same time render the BBWAA's own award to a player who tested positive in the year that he won it. And there are many precedents in sports for stripping an award: Medals are taken away in the Olympics after the fact, NCAA titles are removed, Heismans are vacated.
(For the record: If Braun is suspended, I don't think his MVP should be taken away. I do believe there should be consistency in how the baseball writers handle the PED issue, by reflecting how the sport handles the players' eligibility. Braun was never suspended during the 2011 season, just as McGwire and Bagwell were never sanctioned or banned during their careers.)
Saturday will be extraordinarily difficult for Braun. He will be booed, loudly, when announced.
His best chance for cheers -- his best chance for any kind of redemption -- is to offer to step down as the reigning NL MVP.
[Bob] Simpson didn't completely rule out the possibility, but said Fielder's asking price and the Rangers' estimated $125 million 2012 payroll makes a deal highly unlikely.
"I think he's, given our set of cards, too pricey," Simpson said. "And if that were to change, I guess they would look at that harder. But right now I think he's priced himself out of what we could do."
Simpson said the Rangers biggest offseason strategy was trying to find a way to sign Yu Darvish. Mission accomplished. And while fans will continue to dream about adding Fielder, Simpson has at least one other priority in mind.
"We've got guys, frankly, like Josh Hamilton that I would love to see re-signed," Simpson said. "And frankly, my personal preference at this moment would be to re-sign him instead of helping Fielder. We (the ownership group) could all debate that."
It's interesting that the Rays have zigged and zagged on a couple of dynamics for their team. John Jaso generated a high on-base percentage, but his catching skills are not highly regarded, so the Rays replaced him with Jose Molina, who is a light hitter and very slow but is strong defensively. And after letting Pena walk away, partly because of his high strikeout total after the 2010 season -- his high salary had something to do with it, too -- the Rays went with more of a contact-first hitter in Casey Kotchman. Now they've veered Pena back to Tampa Bay. The initial reaction from one rival evaluator after Pena signed: "Their defense is special. They also have a lot of strikeouts in that lineup."
•It figured that somebody would take a shot at Manny Ramirez -- and the Oakland Athletics are considering the possibility of signing the disgraced slugger, as Enrique Rojas reports. For Oakland, there would be zero risk in signing Manny. He will make close to minimum wage, and if at any point he gives a reason for the Athletics to not want him -- whether because he can't hit, at 40, or because he acts like a jerk -- they can cut him.
•The Dodgers' debt is put at $573 million.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Indians acquired another candidate for their rotation in the aftermath of the arrest of the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. From the story:
Dominican authorities say Carmona's real name is Roberto Hernandez Heredia and that he's 31, not 28, as he's listed in the Indians' 2011 media guide.
"I ask for the forgiveness of my fans, the government of the United States and the Cleveland Indians for this situation," Carmona told the Associated Press upon leaving court Friday.
One of the great shifts in the offseason has been the Colorado Rockies' move to strengthen the culture of their clubhouse. A major investment was made in Michael Cuddyer, regarded as one of the best leaders in baseball. The Rockies signed veterans to play catcher (Ramon Hernandez) and third base (Casey Blake).
And now Colorado has added another veteran, with the trade for Marco Scutaro, who has a reputation as a great clubhouse guy. Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd told the Denver Post's Troy Renck: "He fits in well. He's another guy with a slow heartbeat that is a winning player."
Colorado may now have as much experience in its everyday lineup as any team in the majors (and this comes with a heightened injury risk, as well). If the Rockies can get good starting pitching -- to go along with what should be a good bullpen -- Colorado should be part of the lead pack in the NL West.
The Rockies are built to mash and can roll if their rotation is mentally up to the challenge, writes Renck.
[h3]BBWAA New York dinner[/h3]
• Colleague Willie Weinbaum sent along these notes from Saturday's New York Baseball Writers dinner:
Ryan Braun's remarks at the lectern Saturday night were the most anticipated and newsworthy few minutes of the BBWAA New York Chapter's 89th dinner, but the two most poignant moments were a tribute to a Hall of Famer from his children and an acceptance speech by a beloved team trainer.
Former Mets catcher and postseason hero Gary Carter, a 2003 Cooperstown inductee, has inoperable brain cancer and was unable to travel from his home in Florida to accept the chapter's "Arthur and Milton Richman You Gotta Have Heart" award, but his three children represented him and received a standing ovation when introduced by Carter's former New York teammate, Bob Ojeda.
A few days after she posted a blog message with a grim update on Carter's condition, a tearful Kimmy Carter Bloemers spoke of her father's "difficult eight-month journey." Her brother D.J. read a message from their dad, who said he has "nothing but fond memories" of his time in New York, highlighted by the Mets' 1986 championship and parade. He added, "the fans were always supportive of me on the baseball field and have continued to support me and my family since my diagnosis of brain cancer in May of 2011."
Like Carter, longtime Yankees head athletic trainer Gene Monahan has been battling cancer. After 49 years with the team, Monahan retired at the end of last season. His friend Kevin Harvick, the NASCAR driver, and Yankee closer Mariano Rivera, baseball's all-time saves leader, presented Monahan with the William J. Slocum-Jack Lang Award for Long and Meritorious Service.
Following a standing ovation, an emotional Monahan looked skyward and said, "I promise, Boss, I won't talk too long." Monahan said he misses the late Yankees Chairman George Steinbrenner and that they had a close relationship.
When he was in high school, Monahan said, he clipped and saved a quote in a magazine attributed to perennial Gold Glover Brooks Robinson of the Orioles. He recounted keeping the clipping in his wallet through a decade in the minor leagues. Monahan recited the quote as: "To be able to do what you do the best and love the most -- that is the real definition of true happiness."
Among the evening's other highlights:
• Arizona Manager Kirk Gibson, upon receiving the award for National League Manager of the Year, credited his former manager with the Tigers, the late Sparky Anderson, as having "turned me from a maniac to someone who just deals with things."
• Former slugger Frank Thomas, who along with his 1962 Original Mets teammates Jay Hook and Al Jackson received the "Willie, Mickey and the Duke" award (to a group of players forever linked in history), said Friday was his 61st wedding anniversary, but that his wife Dolores is in the throes of pancreatic cancer and urged him to travel from their home in Pittsburgh to participate in the BBWAA event, even though she couldn't join him. Thomas also said Pirates Hall of Famer Pie Traynor and another scout told him he'd never make it as a ballplayer, so he always tells youngsters, "If you have a dream, don't let anybody deter you."
• Bobby Valentine, who presented the Joan Payson Award for community service to Yankees reliever David Robertson, was booed when introduced as manager of the Boston Red Sox. Tongue apparently in cheek, Valentine said when he tried to check in at the hotel after driving there through heavy snow, he was told there was no room in his name. Then, said Valentine, dinner chairman Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News informed him he didn't have a seat on the dais, either.
• Former Dodgers pitcher Don Newcombe presented two awards at once to the only other player in history who's won the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards. Fellow righty and former rookie of the year Justin Verlander of the Tigers collected the Cy Young and MVP honors and a hug from Newcombe, who had waited 55 years for someone to equal his feat of winning all three awards. After Newcombe, 85, delivered a rollicking speech focusing in large part on how he tries to keep up with his younger wife, Verlander made an amusing confession. The Detroit ace said once the media began reporting and asking him about the possibility of being named MVP, "Of course I was thinking about it," despite having repeatedly answered that he wasn't.
Here is Braun's speech in its entirety, courtesy of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Braun did a great job with it.
Frank McCourt's lasting legacy.
Spoiler [+]
Frank McCourt will be remembered as the Richard Nixon of baseball owners, as someone who inexplicably squandered enormous opportunity and went out the door in shame. But this cannot possibly be the complete picture, given the rather incredible path his stewardship of the Los Angeles Dodgers has taken.
He bought the team in 2004 for a reported $430 million, and immediately stories began emanating from the organization about the unusual dynamics in play -- the fights between Frank and his wife Jamie in full view of his employees, the heavy reliance on salary deferrals, the near extinction of the organization as a presence in Latin America.
The McCourts got divorced, heightening the financial pressures on Frank McCourt, who had relied heavily on borrowed money to acquire the Dodgers and accumulated even more staggering debt as owner. Year by year, the franchise's payroll shriveled to its current $90 million, which will be less than the payroll of the Milwaukee Brewers.
McCourt's failed administration of the Dodgers led Major League Baseball to invade the team's front offices to oversee the day-to-day operation of the team -- and in the end, McCourt chose to put the club into bankruptcy. A franchise that had been the crown jewel of the sport, through the vision of Walter O'Malley and the beauty of Dodger Stadium and the success of the teams put together by Buzzie Bavasi, was thrown on the mercy of a Delaware court.
But here's the thing -- only because the team was run into the ground, so deeply that it went into bankruptcy, is McCourt now in position to operate the sale of the franchise mostly out of the control of Major League Baseball. Only because the team was run into the ground is McCourt now in position to sell the Dodgers for more than a billion dollars more than he paid for it.
Had McCourt taken the conventional route, keeping the team in the black and going through the sale process prescribed by Major League Baseball, he would not have been free and clear to run the auction of the team in the way he is now.
McCourt's reputation in baseball, and among Dodgers fans, will never be the same.
He won't have to worry about that as he cashes in, enormously, from his own failure.
McCourt received more than 10 opening bids. This could be the sale of the century, writes Bill Shaikin.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Prince Fielder remains unsigned while seeking a nine-figure contract, and everybody keeps asking: What back door will agent Scott Boras find to get Fielder a massive contract?
Here's one unlikely but interesting idea posed by a general manager (and it's complete speculation): What if Boras waits for McCourt to pick a winning bidder and then lobbies the incoming owner to negotiate through McCourt?
For argument's sake: What if McCourt were to announce on Feb. 10 that the winning bidder for the team is John Doe's group. And then, while Doe's prospective ownership was in the process of being approved by Major League Baseball, he could indicate to McCourt that he wants the Dodgers to sign Fielder for the 2012 season, and that he is willing to take on the contract.
This sort of thing has happened in the past with trades, in which an incoming owner -- not yet formally approved -- has lobbied for and endorsed a move.
But in order for this to even be a consideration, Fielder would have to wait for that possibility to materialize. Most players in Fielder's position now would be anxious for a resolution.
I'd respectfully disagree with that. A Washington Nationals lineup with Fielder in the middle would lift the Nationals from an already intriguing team to a dangerous one. Besides the question of whether Washington signs Fielder, the Nationals are settled, writes Adam Kilgore. The Nationals remain in contact with Fielder.
The Yankees are looking to dump the contract of A.J. Burnett in return for another bad contract, and you wonder if Jason Bay might be an option. Bay's numbers in the second half of last year were better than in the first half, and he's owed $35 million for the next two seasons, almost exactly what Burnett is owed ($33 million).
From the Yankees' perspective, Burnett is sunk money, so maybe (and this is all speculation) they would see something in Bay that would make them believe he is salvageable. Alfonso Soriano probably wouldn't be an option.
Uehara had a strong first half for Baltimore, but was relatively ineffective after being traded to Texas. The Rangers would likely be interested as a way of shedding at least part of Uehara's $4 million salary. Uehara also would have to waive his limited no-trade clause.
A deal for Uehara would continue a major bullpen overhaul for the Blue Jays, who already have landed Sergio Santos, Jason Frasor and Darren Oliver this offseason.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Finding a home for A.J.[/h3]
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In a perfect world, the Yankees would like to find a new home for Burnett, but the two years and $33 million on his contract are a major hurdle. While it likely won't happen, the Orioles are perhaps the Yankees' most logical trade partner for right-hander Burnett, says Ken Rosenthal.
Rosenthal notes that Burnett spends his offseasons in Monkton, Md., and that the Orioles have pursued him in the past, albeit under a different general manager. Any deal, of course, would require the Yankees to assume a huge portion of the contract.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney wonders if the Yankees might consider sending Burnett across town to the New York Mets for Jason Bay in a trade of bad contracts. Bay is owed $35 million over the next two years.
"From the Yankees' perspective, Burnett is sunk money, so maybe (and this is all speculation) they would see something in Bay that would make them believe he is salvageable ."
What was once an abundance of closers on the free agent market is now down to Francisco Cordero, who had hoped to stay in Cincinnati but saw that card come off the table when Ryan Madson signed with the Reds.
One option may be in Anaheim, but it might require Cordero to consider a set-up role, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
Agent Bean Stringfellow says the Angels, Orioles, Phillies and Blue Jays are pursuing Cordero, and that his client is expected to make a decision by the end of this week.
DiGiovanna says it remains unclear whether the Angels are interested in using Cordero as a closer or as a set-up man behind Jordan Walden, who has plenty of potential but blew 10 save opportunities last season.
A set-up role would be a major change for 36-year-old Cordero, a three-time All-Star who has been a closer for the last nine years. But it worked in Milwaukee for Francisco Rodriguez, who agreed to pitch behind John Axford after being traded by the New York Mets last summer.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Betemit's role in Baltimore[/h3]
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The Orioles have been mentioned as a possible candidate in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, but GM Dan Duquette landed a far less costly option Monday by agreeing to a two-year deal with veteran utilityman Wilson Betemit, says Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun.
Betemit, never known for his defense, figures to be used primarily as a DH in Baltimore while giving manager Buck Showalter another option at third and first base with Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis.
Encina adds the acquisition of Betemit won't affect the Orioles' stance on Fielder. They are still monitoring the situation with the star first baseman, and likely still won't bid unless his market value drops considerably.
"I tend to doubt that Fielder, who has been part of successful Milwaukee teams, would jump to the Orioles, who figure to be digging out in the immediate future. ."
Over the weekend, there appeared to be a feeling in baseball that a pursuit of Prince Fielder by the Los Angeles Dodgers was indeed plausible.
T.J. Simers of the Los Angeles Times wrote that the acquisition of Fielder would only enhance the value of a franchise that is currently for sale.
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune says the odds of Fielder landing in LA only increase the longer he remains unsigned. "MLB is expected to identify a buyer for the team in early February, and the potential buyer could ask Frank McCourt to get Fielder signed," Rogers writes.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal writes Tuesday that the Fielder sweepstakes are nearing a conclusion, with the Nationals remaining a leading contender, if not the outright favorite.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has more on the LA scenario in Tuesday's blog:
"For argument's sake: What if Frank McCourt were to announce on Feb. 10 that the winning bidder for the team is John Doe's group. And then, while Doe's prospective ownership was in the process of being approved by Major League Baseball, he could indicate to McCourt that he wants the Dodgers to sign Fielder for the 2012 season, and that he is willing to take on the contract. This sort of thing has happened in the past with trades, in which an incoming owner -- not yet formally approved -- has lobbied for and endorsed a move. But in order for this to even be a consideration, Fielder would have to wait for that possibility to materialize. Most players in Fielder's position now would be anxious for a resolution."
http://[h3]Rays look for a shortstop[/h3]
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[h5]Tampa Bay Rays [/h5]
We mentioned Monday that the Tampa Bay Rays have done the bulk of their heavy lifting this offseason with the deals for Luke Scott and Carlos Pena, but they still might be looking for help at shortstop.
ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick tweeted that the Rays have interest in free agent infielder Jeff Keppinger, who would presumably compete for at-bats with incumbents Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times adds that the Rays have had talks with Ryan Theriot and may have interest in Edgar Renteria.
There has been talk that the Rays, one of the few teams with a surplus of pitching, could make Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis available in a deal for a shortstop. - Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Lee the next Jermaine Dye?[/h3]
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Jermaine Dye made $11.5 million for the Chicago White Sox in 2009, a year in which he hit 24 points below his career average. The outfielder hoped to continue playing, but ended up walking away from the game when no offer surfaced that was anywhere close to that price range.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that some executives are drawing comparisons between Dye and Derrek Lee, who might end up in a forced retirement if he doesn't get the right deal.
The 36-year-old Lee split last season between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, earning $7.25 million. There was talk earlier this winter that the first baseman wanted to re-sign with the Pirates, but those talks seem to have cooled.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can the Fish afford Cespedes?[/h3]
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UPDATE: Mike Berardino writes in Tuesday's Sun-Sentinel that Cespedes would be an excellent fit in Miami, but the Marlins may be forced to bow out if the bidding gets too high, given they already have made $200 million in commitments to free agent acquisitions this winter.
--
Yoenis Cespedes has not officially established residency in the Dominican Republic as previously thought and is still waiting for Major League Baseball to grant him free agency -- which, of course, cannot take place until his residency is eastablished. In the meantime, he's decided to play in the Dominican Winter League.
Bobby Valentine's roster continues to take shape in Boston with word Monday night that the Red Sox have agreed to a one-year, $3 million deal with free agent Cody Ross.
Ross is Exhibit A when it comes to second-tier free agents who were forced to reassess their market value this winter. The 31-year-old came into the offseason looking to land a three-year contract that never materialized. At one point, Ross was reportedly being contacted by the low-budget New York Mets before he landed a deal in Boston.
Ross figures to jump ahead of Darnell McDonald in a potential platoon in right field and will come to camp hoping to convince Valentine that he should play every day ahead of the recently-acquired Ryan Sweeney.
With Ross under wraps, the Red Sox will likely set their sights on Roy Oswalt, another free agent who has significantly reduced his demands.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Yankees prefer trade for a hitter[/h3]
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[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]
The New York Yankees went from a pitching deficiency to a pitching surplus with the blockbuster deal for Michael Pineda that was officially announced Monday. That surplus could now be used to add another bat to the lineup.
General manager Brian Cashman tells the New York Daily News that his preference is to trade for a hitter rather than spend extra free agent dollars.
That could be bad news for free agents Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Raul Ibanez, all of whom would like to fill the role of DH in the Bronx that opened up when Jesus Montero was sent to the Mariners. At the very least, Cashman was telling those free agents that he has other options and is unwilling to overpay.
Cashman would love to find a taker for expensive righthander A.J. Burnett, but might have to consider dealing Phil Hughes instead.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]M's to give Montero chance to catch[/h3]
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[h5]Seattle Mariners [/h5]
The Seattle Mariners said Monday in a teleconference to announce the big trade that the newly-acquired Jesus Montero will get every opportunity to catch, which may lead to a shake up at the catching position in the organization.
Aside from Montero, who is likely to get at-bats as a DH and possibly at first base, too, the Mariners employ both John Jaso and Miguel Olivo, as well as Adam Moore, who could warrant playing time in a backup role.
Jaso and Moore are under club control, but Olivo, who would have the most trade value, is slated to hit free agency after the 2012 season.
Contenders could seek help behind the plate, which could facilitate a trade. The M's could start the season with three catchers, however, and make a move during the year if they need to clear roster space for an extra pitcher.
Jaso could conceivably see time in left field, but his bat doesn't project there well and any time he receives is in place a better hitter in Mike Carp and a better player in Casper Wells, either of whom could be a long-term answer somewhere in the organization.
When you do a lot of work with projections and make a lot of predictions, one of the hardest things to get used to is the amount of times you'll get things completely wrong. Every year, there is a handful of players for whom events don't even out and they end up missing their projections by a mile. There are a lot of reasons for a player to be disappointing, from mechanical flaws to injuries to the most frustrating reason: "dunno."
Looking back at the 2011 ZiPS projections, we thought we'd take a look at who failed to meet their projections by the biggest margins, examine what went wrong and look ahead to the 2012 season.
It seemed like a match made in heaven: one of the most consistent sluggers in baseball getting to DH and play in a solid hitters' park. It didn't quite work out that way, with Dunn missing his projection by a greater margin than any player ZiPS has projected in the last decade.
The only consolation is that while there were good reasons to not be confident about Dunn down the road, nobody really saw a top slugger like Dunn slugging .277 when he was 31.
Going forward, it's hard to have any faith in Dunn. A decline of this magnitude is almost entirely unprecedented in baseball history. Without Dunn having lost an arm or something similar before the 2011 season, there's no easy explanation for his downfall. Dunn could come back in 2012, but after last season, both the White Sox and fantasy owners need to be skeptical. Even if Dunn has a major comeback, it's going to be mostly in the form of home runs.
Compared to Dunn's fall, Heyward's 2012 was a minor bump in the road. While Heyward underperformed in 2011, he didn't have a collapse of historic standards, but simply a disappointing year given his rookie campaign.
Luckily, in Heyward's case, his nagging back injuries provide a reason for the down year. While back problems can sometimes linger -- they ruined Clint Hurdle's career -- Heyward is still a young player likely to turn it around. And Heyward's .260 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is bound to increase considerably in 2012 (his BABIP was .335 in 2010).
One of the elite free agent outfielders last winter (another, Jayson Werth, was also a disappointment), Crawford had a lackluster first year in Boston, putting up his worst season since his first full season with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2003.
The good news for Crawford is that he's still just 30 and doesn't fit the profile of a guy, like George Bell or Mo Vaughn, who would decline at an early age. Crawford's had some nagging injuries, and the days of him hitting 19 triples in a year are gone, but he still has a broad range of skills.
The biggest concern is Crawford's wrist, which may not be healthy at the start of the season.
Rios is no stranger to crazy-bad seasons -- it was his collapse in 2009 that made him available to the White Sox on waivers despite coming off three solid years. Can he recover from a big dropoff again?
What makes it harder this time around is that Rios is a few years older, and his bad year was even worse than the last one. Luckily for Rios, the White Sox are retooling, and he'll get plenty of opportunities to show he's not done yet.
Huff, who turned 35 a few weeks ago, was the oldest player on this list to underperform, which is never a good sign. While Huff has had this strange pattern of alternate good years and off years for a while, it's dangerous to expect quirky things like that to continue at his age.
The Giants still retain their fondness for Huff. While he should have a better year, they need to be thinking about who comes after him.
On paper, Jimenez's 2011 was a major letdown after finishing third in the NL Cy Young race in 2010, but there are very good reasons to see the season as an outlier. His strikeout and walk rates stayed exactly the same, and while his home run allowed rate went up, it was still in solid territory.
Jimenez's 3.67 FIP last year was right around his career 3.60 FIP, suggesting that he was more effective than his 4.68 ERA would indicate. Cleveland gave up some excellent prospects to get Jimenez, but given his contract situation ($18 million over three years if the club options are picked up), he'll be the Indians' ace for a while.
If any player ever needed a change of scenery, it has to be Zambrano. After two years of fighting with the team, a trip to the disqualified list, and a few retirement threats, the Cubs paid the Marlins most of the $18 million Zambrano is set to make in 2012 just to move on from him.
Last year was a disaster, but it's also the first time Zambrano wasn't a contributor on the field, and he's a good risk for the Marlins to take considering the push they're making for at least the NL wild card. Even better news for fantasy owners: If he pitches well, you get his numbers without having to personally deal with him.
Like Jimenez's, Dempster's 2011 was deceptively bad. Now, Dempster isn't anywhere near as solid a hurler as Jimenez, but last year's 3.91 FIP was indistinguishable from his 3.87 and 3.99 the previous two seasons. As long as the Cubs are content with Dempster being pretty durable and somewhere in the vicinity of league-average, they won't be too disappointed with him in 2012.
If he gets his ERA half a run lower as ZiPS says, Dempster does go deep enough into games to get a fair amount of wins for an average starter.
Last season was supposed to be Scherzer's breakout year, giving the Tigers a solid No. 2 behind Justin Verlander. Verlander did his job (and then some), but Scherzer's inconsistency was a contributing factor to Detroit having a shallow rotation that let the Indians make things interesting for a while.
Scherzer won 15 games last year, but that had a lot to do with the Tigers' offense. Scherzer will likely improve on his 2011 performance, but he may win a few fewer games given that the team offense will probably drop off a bit in 2012.
Ryan Braun should offer to give back NL MVP award.
Spoiler [+]
From the moment the news of Ryan Braun's positive test for performance-enhancing drugs broke in December, he has maintained his innocence, texting to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the PED charge was "B.S.," and he and his representatives followed through with an appeal that was heard on Thursday in New York. He's the only person who can know, with certainty, how this happened, and he insists he did nothing wrong.
But by now Braun understands that no matter how his appeal is decided, the perception of him has been shaped. Under the terms of baseball's drug prevention program, the positive test from October means, quite literally, that he is guilty until proven innocent, and this is true for many in the court of public opinion, as well.
This is a reality that Roger Clemens didn't seem to comprehend the instant his name was published in the Mitchell Report: He had already lost what he was trying to protect.
The best chance for Braun to extricate something good from his situation would be to stand up on the dais Saturday, hold the NL MVP trophy in his hands -- and offer to give it back to the Baseball Writers' Association of America at its annual New York dinner, even while maintaining his innocence. This gesture would elevate Braun and separate him from the legions of athletes who have issued denials in the face of accusations of performance-enhancing drug use.
Braun could say something along these lines when he speaks Saturday night :
I want to thank the Baseball Writers' Association for this award. But you all know, I failed a drug test in October, right in the middle of the playoffs.
I don't believe I did anything wrong. I didn't take any drugs meant to enhance my performance. My case is under appeal, which was heard here in New York this week, and I remain hopeful that the decision will go my way and that I can be ready to help the Brewers at the start of the 2012 season.
But I also understand the importance and the stature of the Most Valuable Player Award, which has been won by the likes of Ted Williams and Hank Aaron and Sandy Koufax and Cal Ripken. I do not want my situation to cast any negative light on the award, and if the Baseball Writers believe it's in the best interest of baseball that somebody else would be the NL MVP for 2011, I am here to offer back this award, for the sake of the sport we all love. Thank you.
It would be the right thing to do. For baseball and for Braun, who would be lauded for the gracious offer.
And here's the Machiavellian side to this: Braun has to know by now that the odds of him winning his appeal are very, very slim because of how problematic that decision would become for baseball, for a couple of reasons:
1. Even if Braun's positive test is the result of him taking medication that he did not realize would trigger the failure, he and all players are still responsible for knowing exactly what they put in their bodies. If Braun wins his appeal, it would set an enormous loophole for all players -- including PED users -- to generate after-the-fact explanations for positive tests, while armed with a doctor's note.
Current players have been told over and over and over that before ingesting any substance, they must know whether that substance contains anything that is banned under the drug-testing rules.
2. If Braun wins his appeal while maintaining that the substance he took -- for whatever reason -- unexpectedly generated a staggering amount of synthetic testosterone, well, you can bet that a whole lot of other players looking to beat the system will take the same substance, under the premise that they took it for the same reason that Braun did. There have been columnists who have written with great sympathy for Braun, even without knowing the precise facts of the case. There are a lot of players who privately don't feel the same way, because they understand that the drug-testing rules are structured the way they are out of necessity, out of practical realities.
Braun presumably knows that the Baseball Writers' Association, citing precedent, has already indicated that it will not take the award away from Braun.
Never mind that, this is completely at odds with the extreme anti-drug stance that an enormous bloc of writers has embraced in the Hall of Fame voting -- maybe 40-45 percent. It makes no sense that writers would essentially whitewash the history of performances for Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens while acting on behalf of the Hall of Fame, yet at the same time render the BBWAA's own award to a player who tested positive in the year that he won it. And there are many precedents in sports for stripping an award: Medals are taken away in the Olympics after the fact, NCAA titles are removed, Heismans are vacated.
(For the record: If Braun is suspended, I don't think his MVP should be taken away. I do believe there should be consistency in how the baseball writers handle the PED issue, by reflecting how the sport handles the players' eligibility. Braun was never suspended during the 2011 season, just as McGwire and Bagwell were never sanctioned or banned during their careers.)
Saturday will be extraordinarily difficult for Braun. He will be booed, loudly, when announced.
His best chance for cheers -- his best chance for any kind of redemption -- is to offer to step down as the reigning NL MVP.
[Bob] Simpson didn't completely rule out the possibility, but said Fielder's asking price and the Rangers' estimated $125 million 2012 payroll makes a deal highly unlikely.
"I think he's, given our set of cards, too pricey," Simpson said. "And if that were to change, I guess they would look at that harder. But right now I think he's priced himself out of what we could do."
Simpson said the Rangers biggest offseason strategy was trying to find a way to sign Yu Darvish. Mission accomplished. And while fans will continue to dream about adding Fielder, Simpson has at least one other priority in mind.
"We've got guys, frankly, like Josh Hamilton that I would love to see re-signed," Simpson said. "And frankly, my personal preference at this moment would be to re-sign him instead of helping Fielder. We (the ownership group) could all debate that."
It's interesting that the Rays have zigged and zagged on a couple of dynamics for their team. John Jaso generated a high on-base percentage, but his catching skills are not highly regarded, so the Rays replaced him with Jose Molina, who is a light hitter and very slow but is strong defensively. And after letting Pena walk away, partly because of his high strikeout total after the 2010 season -- his high salary had something to do with it, too -- the Rays went with more of a contact-first hitter in Casey Kotchman. Now they've veered Pena back to Tampa Bay. The initial reaction from one rival evaluator after Pena signed: "Their defense is special. They also have a lot of strikeouts in that lineup."
•It figured that somebody would take a shot at Manny Ramirez -- and the Oakland Athletics are considering the possibility of signing the disgraced slugger, as Enrique Rojas reports. For Oakland, there would be zero risk in signing Manny. He will make close to minimum wage, and if at any point he gives a reason for the Athletics to not want him -- whether because he can't hit, at 40, or because he acts like a jerk -- they can cut him.
•The Dodgers' debt is put at $573 million.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Indians acquired another candidate for their rotation in the aftermath of the arrest of the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. From the story:
Dominican authorities say Carmona's real name is Roberto Hernandez Heredia and that he's 31, not 28, as he's listed in the Indians' 2011 media guide.
"I ask for the forgiveness of my fans, the government of the United States and the Cleveland Indians for this situation," Carmona told the Associated Press upon leaving court Friday.
One of the great shifts in the offseason has been the Colorado Rockies' move to strengthen the culture of their clubhouse. A major investment was made in Michael Cuddyer, regarded as one of the best leaders in baseball. The Rockies signed veterans to play catcher (Ramon Hernandez) and third base (Casey Blake).
And now Colorado has added another veteran, with the trade for Marco Scutaro, who has a reputation as a great clubhouse guy. Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd told the Denver Post's Troy Renck: "He fits in well. He's another guy with a slow heartbeat that is a winning player."
Colorado may now have as much experience in its everyday lineup as any team in the majors (and this comes with a heightened injury risk, as well). If the Rockies can get good starting pitching -- to go along with what should be a good bullpen -- Colorado should be part of the lead pack in the NL West.
The Rockies are built to mash and can roll if their rotation is mentally up to the challenge, writes Renck.
[h3]BBWAA New York dinner[/h3]
• Colleague Willie Weinbaum sent along these notes from Saturday's New York Baseball Writers dinner:
Ryan Braun's remarks at the lectern Saturday night were the most anticipated and newsworthy few minutes of the BBWAA New York Chapter's 89th dinner, but the two most poignant moments were a tribute to a Hall of Famer from his children and an acceptance speech by a beloved team trainer.
Former Mets catcher and postseason hero Gary Carter, a 2003 Cooperstown inductee, has inoperable brain cancer and was unable to travel from his home in Florida to accept the chapter's "Arthur and Milton Richman You Gotta Have Heart" award, but his three children represented him and received a standing ovation when introduced by Carter's former New York teammate, Bob Ojeda.
A few days after she posted a blog message with a grim update on Carter's condition, a tearful Kimmy Carter Bloemers spoke of her father's "difficult eight-month journey." Her brother D.J. read a message from their dad, who said he has "nothing but fond memories" of his time in New York, highlighted by the Mets' 1986 championship and parade. He added, "the fans were always supportive of me on the baseball field and have continued to support me and my family since my diagnosis of brain cancer in May of 2011."
Like Carter, longtime Yankees head athletic trainer Gene Monahan has been battling cancer. After 49 years with the team, Monahan retired at the end of last season. His friend Kevin Harvick, the NASCAR driver, and Yankee closer Mariano Rivera, baseball's all-time saves leader, presented Monahan with the William J. Slocum-Jack Lang Award for Long and Meritorious Service.
Following a standing ovation, an emotional Monahan looked skyward and said, "I promise, Boss, I won't talk too long." Monahan said he misses the late Yankees Chairman George Steinbrenner and that they had a close relationship.
When he was in high school, Monahan said, he clipped and saved a quote in a magazine attributed to perennial Gold Glover Brooks Robinson of the Orioles. He recounted keeping the clipping in his wallet through a decade in the minor leagues. Monahan recited the quote as: "To be able to do what you do the best and love the most -- that is the real definition of true happiness."
Among the evening's other highlights:
• Arizona Manager Kirk Gibson, upon receiving the award for National League Manager of the Year, credited his former manager with the Tigers, the late Sparky Anderson, as having "turned me from a maniac to someone who just deals with things."
• Former slugger Frank Thomas, who along with his 1962 Original Mets teammates Jay Hook and Al Jackson received the "Willie, Mickey and the Duke" award (to a group of players forever linked in history), said Friday was his 61st wedding anniversary, but that his wife Dolores is in the throes of pancreatic cancer and urged him to travel from their home in Pittsburgh to participate in the BBWAA event, even though she couldn't join him. Thomas also said Pirates Hall of Famer Pie Traynor and another scout told him he'd never make it as a ballplayer, so he always tells youngsters, "If you have a dream, don't let anybody deter you."
• Bobby Valentine, who presented the Joan Payson Award for community service to Yankees reliever David Robertson, was booed when introduced as manager of the Boston Red Sox. Tongue apparently in cheek, Valentine said when he tried to check in at the hotel after driving there through heavy snow, he was told there was no room in his name. Then, said Valentine, dinner chairman Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News informed him he didn't have a seat on the dais, either.
• Former Dodgers pitcher Don Newcombe presented two awards at once to the only other player in history who's won the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards. Fellow righty and former rookie of the year Justin Verlander of the Tigers collected the Cy Young and MVP honors and a hug from Newcombe, who had waited 55 years for someone to equal his feat of winning all three awards. After Newcombe, 85, delivered a rollicking speech focusing in large part on how he tries to keep up with his younger wife, Verlander made an amusing confession. The Detroit ace said once the media began reporting and asking him about the possibility of being named MVP, "Of course I was thinking about it," despite having repeatedly answered that he wasn't.
Here is Braun's speech in its entirety, courtesy of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Braun did a great job with it.
Frank McCourt's lasting legacy.
Spoiler [+]
Frank McCourt will be remembered as the Richard Nixon of baseball owners, as someone who inexplicably squandered enormous opportunity and went out the door in shame. But this cannot possibly be the complete picture, given the rather incredible path his stewardship of the Los Angeles Dodgers has taken.
He bought the team in 2004 for a reported $430 million, and immediately stories began emanating from the organization about the unusual dynamics in play -- the fights between Frank and his wife Jamie in full view of his employees, the heavy reliance on salary deferrals, the near extinction of the organization as a presence in Latin America.
The McCourts got divorced, heightening the financial pressures on Frank McCourt, who had relied heavily on borrowed money to acquire the Dodgers and accumulated even more staggering debt as owner. Year by year, the franchise's payroll shriveled to its current $90 million, which will be less than the payroll of the Milwaukee Brewers.
McCourt's failed administration of the Dodgers led Major League Baseball to invade the team's front offices to oversee the day-to-day operation of the team -- and in the end, McCourt chose to put the club into bankruptcy. A franchise that had been the crown jewel of the sport, through the vision of Walter O'Malley and the beauty of Dodger Stadium and the success of the teams put together by Buzzie Bavasi, was thrown on the mercy of a Delaware court.
But here's the thing -- only because the team was run into the ground, so deeply that it went into bankruptcy, is McCourt now in position to operate the sale of the franchise mostly out of the control of Major League Baseball. Only because the team was run into the ground is McCourt now in position to sell the Dodgers for more than a billion dollars more than he paid for it.
Had McCourt taken the conventional route, keeping the team in the black and going through the sale process prescribed by Major League Baseball, he would not have been free and clear to run the auction of the team in the way he is now.
McCourt's reputation in baseball, and among Dodgers fans, will never be the same.
He won't have to worry about that as he cashes in, enormously, from his own failure.
McCourt received more than 10 opening bids. This could be the sale of the century, writes Bill Shaikin.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Prince Fielder remains unsigned while seeking a nine-figure contract, and everybody keeps asking: What back door will agent Scott Boras find to get Fielder a massive contract?
Here's one unlikely but interesting idea posed by a general manager (and it's complete speculation): What if Boras waits for McCourt to pick a winning bidder and then lobbies the incoming owner to negotiate through McCourt?
For argument's sake: What if McCourt were to announce on Feb. 10 that the winning bidder for the team is John Doe's group. And then, while Doe's prospective ownership was in the process of being approved by Major League Baseball, he could indicate to McCourt that he wants the Dodgers to sign Fielder for the 2012 season, and that he is willing to take on the contract.
This sort of thing has happened in the past with trades, in which an incoming owner -- not yet formally approved -- has lobbied for and endorsed a move.
But in order for this to even be a consideration, Fielder would have to wait for that possibility to materialize. Most players in Fielder's position now would be anxious for a resolution.
I'd respectfully disagree with that. A Washington Nationals lineup with Fielder in the middle would lift the Nationals from an already intriguing team to a dangerous one. Besides the question of whether Washington signs Fielder, the Nationals are settled, writes Adam Kilgore. The Nationals remain in contact with Fielder.
The Yankees are looking to dump the contract of A.J. Burnett in return for another bad contract, and you wonder if Jason Bay might be an option. Bay's numbers in the second half of last year were better than in the first half, and he's owed $35 million for the next two seasons, almost exactly what Burnett is owed ($33 million).
From the Yankees' perspective, Burnett is sunk money, so maybe (and this is all speculation) they would see something in Bay that would make them believe he is salvageable. Alfonso Soriano probably wouldn't be an option.
Uehara had a strong first half for Baltimore, but was relatively ineffective after being traded to Texas. The Rangers would likely be interested as a way of shedding at least part of Uehara's $4 million salary. Uehara also would have to waive his limited no-trade clause.
A deal for Uehara would continue a major bullpen overhaul for the Blue Jays, who already have landed Sergio Santos, Jason Frasor and Darren Oliver this offseason.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Finding a home for A.J.[/h3]
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In a perfect world, the Yankees would like to find a new home for Burnett, but the two years and $33 million on his contract are a major hurdle. While it likely won't happen, the Orioles are perhaps the Yankees' most logical trade partner for right-hander Burnett, says Ken Rosenthal.
Rosenthal notes that Burnett spends his offseasons in Monkton, Md., and that the Orioles have pursued him in the past, albeit under a different general manager. Any deal, of course, would require the Yankees to assume a huge portion of the contract.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney wonders if the Yankees might consider sending Burnett across town to the New York Mets for Jason Bay in a trade of bad contracts. Bay is owed $35 million over the next two years.
"From the Yankees' perspective, Burnett is sunk money, so maybe (and this is all speculation) they would see something in Bay that would make them believe he is salvageable ."
What was once an abundance of closers on the free agent market is now down to Francisco Cordero, who had hoped to stay in Cincinnati but saw that card come off the table when Ryan Madson signed with the Reds.
One option may be in Anaheim, but it might require Cordero to consider a set-up role, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
Agent Bean Stringfellow says the Angels, Orioles, Phillies and Blue Jays are pursuing Cordero, and that his client is expected to make a decision by the end of this week.
DiGiovanna says it remains unclear whether the Angels are interested in using Cordero as a closer or as a set-up man behind Jordan Walden, who has plenty of potential but blew 10 save opportunities last season.
A set-up role would be a major change for 36-year-old Cordero, a three-time All-Star who has been a closer for the last nine years. But it worked in Milwaukee for Francisco Rodriguez, who agreed to pitch behind John Axford after being traded by the New York Mets last summer.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Betemit's role in Baltimore[/h3]
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The Orioles have been mentioned as a possible candidate in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, but GM Dan Duquette landed a far less costly option Monday by agreeing to a two-year deal with veteran utilityman Wilson Betemit, says Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun.
Betemit, never known for his defense, figures to be used primarily as a DH in Baltimore while giving manager Buck Showalter another option at third and first base with Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis.
Encina adds the acquisition of Betemit won't affect the Orioles' stance on Fielder. They are still monitoring the situation with the star first baseman, and likely still won't bid unless his market value drops considerably.
"I tend to doubt that Fielder, who has been part of successful Milwaukee teams, would jump to the Orioles, who figure to be digging out in the immediate future. ."
Over the weekend, there appeared to be a feeling in baseball that a pursuit of Prince Fielder by the Los Angeles Dodgers was indeed plausible.
T.J. Simers of the Los Angeles Times wrote that the acquisition of Fielder would only enhance the value of a franchise that is currently for sale.
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune says the odds of Fielder landing in LA only increase the longer he remains unsigned. "MLB is expected to identify a buyer for the team in early February, and the potential buyer could ask Frank McCourt to get Fielder signed," Rogers writes.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal writes Tuesday that the Fielder sweepstakes are nearing a conclusion, with the Nationals remaining a leading contender, if not the outright favorite.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has more on the LA scenario in Tuesday's blog:
"For argument's sake: What if Frank McCourt were to announce on Feb. 10 that the winning bidder for the team is John Doe's group. And then, while Doe's prospective ownership was in the process of being approved by Major League Baseball, he could indicate to McCourt that he wants the Dodgers to sign Fielder for the 2012 season, and that he is willing to take on the contract. This sort of thing has happened in the past with trades, in which an incoming owner -- not yet formally approved -- has lobbied for and endorsed a move. But in order for this to even be a consideration, Fielder would have to wait for that possibility to materialize. Most players in Fielder's position now would be anxious for a resolution."
http://[h3]Rays look for a shortstop[/h3]
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[h5]Tampa Bay Rays [/h5]
We mentioned Monday that the Tampa Bay Rays have done the bulk of their heavy lifting this offseason with the deals for Luke Scott and Carlos Pena, but they still might be looking for help at shortstop.
ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick tweeted that the Rays have interest in free agent infielder Jeff Keppinger, who would presumably compete for at-bats with incumbents Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times adds that the Rays have had talks with Ryan Theriot and may have interest in Edgar Renteria.
There has been talk that the Rays, one of the few teams with a surplus of pitching, could make Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis available in a deal for a shortstop. - Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Lee the next Jermaine Dye?[/h3]
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Jermaine Dye made $11.5 million for the Chicago White Sox in 2009, a year in which he hit 24 points below his career average. The outfielder hoped to continue playing, but ended up walking away from the game when no offer surfaced that was anywhere close to that price range.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that some executives are drawing comparisons between Dye and Derrek Lee, who might end up in a forced retirement if he doesn't get the right deal.
The 36-year-old Lee split last season between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, earning $7.25 million. There was talk earlier this winter that the first baseman wanted to re-sign with the Pirates, but those talks seem to have cooled.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can the Fish afford Cespedes?[/h3]
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UPDATE: Mike Berardino writes in Tuesday's Sun-Sentinel that Cespedes would be an excellent fit in Miami, but the Marlins may be forced to bow out if the bidding gets too high, given they already have made $200 million in commitments to free agent acquisitions this winter.
--
Yoenis Cespedes has not officially established residency in the Dominican Republic as previously thought and is still waiting for Major League Baseball to grant him free agency -- which, of course, cannot take place until his residency is eastablished. In the meantime, he's decided to play in the Dominican Winter League.
Bobby Valentine's roster continues to take shape in Boston with word Monday night that the Red Sox have agreed to a one-year, $3 million deal with free agent Cody Ross.
Ross is Exhibit A when it comes to second-tier free agents who were forced to reassess their market value this winter. The 31-year-old came into the offseason looking to land a three-year contract that never materialized. At one point, Ross was reportedly being contacted by the low-budget New York Mets before he landed a deal in Boston.
Ross figures to jump ahead of Darnell McDonald in a potential platoon in right field and will come to camp hoping to convince Valentine that he should play every day ahead of the recently-acquired Ryan Sweeney.
With Ross under wraps, the Red Sox will likely set their sights on Roy Oswalt, another free agent who has significantly reduced his demands.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Yankees prefer trade for a hitter[/h3]
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[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]
The New York Yankees went from a pitching deficiency to a pitching surplus with the blockbuster deal for Michael Pineda that was officially announced Monday. That surplus could now be used to add another bat to the lineup.
General manager Brian Cashman tells the New York Daily News that his preference is to trade for a hitter rather than spend extra free agent dollars.
That could be bad news for free agents Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Raul Ibanez, all of whom would like to fill the role of DH in the Bronx that opened up when Jesus Montero was sent to the Mariners. At the very least, Cashman was telling those free agents that he has other options and is unwilling to overpay.
Cashman would love to find a taker for expensive righthander A.J. Burnett, but might have to consider dealing Phil Hughes instead.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]M's to give Montero chance to catch[/h3]
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[h5]Seattle Mariners [/h5]
The Seattle Mariners said Monday in a teleconference to announce the big trade that the newly-acquired Jesus Montero will get every opportunity to catch, which may lead to a shake up at the catching position in the organization.
Aside from Montero, who is likely to get at-bats as a DH and possibly at first base, too, the Mariners employ both John Jaso and Miguel Olivo, as well as Adam Moore, who could warrant playing time in a backup role.
Jaso and Moore are under club control, but Olivo, who would have the most trade value, is slated to hit free agency after the 2012 season.
Contenders could seek help behind the plate, which could facilitate a trade. The M's could start the season with three catchers, however, and make a move during the year if they need to clear roster space for an extra pitcher.
Jaso could conceivably see time in left field, but his bat doesn't project there well and any time he receives is in place a better hitter in Mike Carp and a better player in Casper Wells, either of whom could be a long-term answer somewhere in the organization.
