You may have heard the Washington Nationals are suddenly without their ace as the playoffs approach. Stephen Strasburg, like it or not, will not pitch again this season.
But even without their ace, the Nationals still feature Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, Ross Detwiler and John Lannan, which is nothing to sneeze at. By FanGraphs WAR, Gonzalez is second only to Clayton Kershaw this season in the NL, meaning there are 14 other teams in the National League that would love to have the Nationals' "problem" of having Gonzalez atop the rotation. But Tommy John surgery, and its subsequent innings limit for Strasburg, still weakened the Nats' rotation by depriving it of its ace.
The Braves have a young sensation in Kris Medlen, who also had Tommy John surgery in 2010. But the Braves handled Medlen differently than Washington handled Strasburg -- Medlen began the season in the bullpen to keep his innings total down -- and now they're reaping the benefits late in the season, and Medlen's recent run has helped the Braves put up the best ERA in the NL during the past month.
While Washington still has the better rotation and plenty of pitching (even without Strasburg) to win in the postseason, the Braves have enough arms to beat the Nationals should the two teams meet in October.
Medlen joins Mike Minor to solidify the back end of an Atlanta rotation fronted by Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and newcomer Paul Maholm, a group that is surging at the right time of the season. In the past month, Medlen has a 0.46 ERA, Minor has a 2.30, and the Braves' rotation ERA of 3.22 beats Washington's 3.36.
If we use fielding independent pitching (FIP) instead of ERA, however, we get a slightly different story. The Nationals have struck out 8.39 batters per nine in the past month, second only to the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL, and walked 2.67 batters per nine, good for fifth in the NL. The Braves (7.38 and 3.15, respectively) have not been as good as the Nationals in those categories and have also benefited from a better batting average on balls in play (.281 to Washington's .293), with assistance from their MLB-leading 8.0 UZR/150. Therefore, their 3.64 FIP is not as sterling as the Nationals' 3.33.
We also have to account for Medlen's historic run. While he certainly could continue to pitch well throughout the rest of the season and the postseason, it's unlikely he can sustain his recent numbers. So if we're comparing Atlanta's rotation and the Strasburg-less Nationals staff, Washington would be ahead in the aggregate.
But playoff series are not played in the aggregate. They depend on matchups and depth, and even a rough head-to-head comparison of the staffs shows that Atlanta has enough of the latter to compete in a short series.
Hudson, even though he's getting a little older, is still a fine pitcher and capable of leading a postseason rotation. He'd likely match up against Gonzalez. In the past three seasons combined, Hudson's 3.19 ERA is nearly equal to Gonzalez's 3.10. Hudson's number is built mostly on his ground-ball rate (59.1 percent since the beginning of 2010, best in MLB), while Gonzalez strikes out more batters (8.6 K/9 compared to Hudson's 5.83). There's no question Gonzalez is better today than Hudson, but Hudson has proved he still has plenty left.
After those two, the matchups could go any number of ways, but let's take a brief look at pitchers individually. Zimmermann would likely pitch Game 2 of a series for the Nats, and he's posted a 3.24 ERA in the past three years (while missing some time for Tommy John surgery) and seems to be trending upward. Jackson could follow Zimmermann, and he's posted a 3.89 ERA this season. If Washington doesn't want to go with three righties in a row, it could pitch Detwiler -- who has a 3.16 ERA and 3.75 FIP in 30 games (24 starts) this year -- third.
The Braves could go with Medlen second; he has better strikeout (7.85 K/9 to 6.9
, walk (1.62 BB/9 to 1.8
, ground ball (52.8 percent to 43.4 percent) and swinging-strike (9.7 percent to 8.5 percent) rates than Zimmermann, although Medlen has spent a good chunk of 2012 in the bullpen. Or they could choose Maholm, whom the Braves traded for at the deadline for this specific instance. Hanson has struggled this season (4.33 ERA in 158 innings) but has the stuff to shut down any lineup. Then there's Minor, who has a 2.35 ERA with 54 strikeouts and 13 walks in 69 innings since the All-Star break.
We still can't say that the Braves have a better rotation than the Nationals, whose starters have combined to be the best in the NL all year and appear to have enough weaponry to thrive without Strasburg. But again, it's no longer about "all year."
If these two teams face each other in October, Strasburg will still be gone, Medlen may still be on this crazy streak of superb starts, and we all know what can happen in a playoff series. A couple of great starts from a Braves staff capable of producing them, and suddenly the best rotation in the NL is preparing for next spring.