2023 MLB Thread; Say Hey, everybody: Rest In Power, Willie

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$775 million for this?! How the Mets and Padres went from preseason favorites to first-half failures

New York and San Diego started 2023 with World Series aspirations but now sit in the bottom third of the majors at the All-Star break. What went wrong?
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How Mets, Padres went from preseason favorites to first-half failures - ESPN​


David Schoenfield

12–15 minutes


  • i

    David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer Jul 7, 2023, 07:00 AM ET
There have been several surprises this season, but maybe none more shocking than the first-half performances of two preseason World Series hopefuls -- the New York Mets and San Diego Padres.

The worst loss for the Mets was a nightmare of a defeat on a Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia on June 25. Leading 6-3 in the bottom of the eighth, they gave up four runs on one measly hit, walking three, hitting two batters and making a costly error -- culminating in yet another series defeat. It was so amateurish, so straight out of something you might see in Little League rather than the majors, that the following day's New York Post back page read, "WORST HALF MONEY CAN BUY."

The Mets can't escape their record-breaking $364 million payroll, one that will approach $500 million once luxury tax penalties are imposed -- especially not since the team, which won 101 games in 2022 to match the Atlanta Braves in the National League East, sits 18 games behind its division rival, entering Thursday's contest at the Arizona Diamondbacks. A few days after the loss to the Phillies, owner Steve Cohen met with the media. "It's terrible," Cohen said. "That's not what I expected."

The Padres have also failed to meet preseason expectations. They're running an estimated $275 million payroll, including penalties, the third-highest behind the Mets and New York Yankees. It is a shocking number for a small-market team. After reaching the NLCS last year, they signed free agent Xander Bogaerts to a $280 million contract and gave Manny Machado a $350 million extension, replacing the final six seasons of his original deal to nullify a potential opt-out clause at the end of the season.

Instead of looking like a postseason favorite, the Padres are languishing under .500, well behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. Padres fans, among the loudest and most enthusiastic in the sport in recent seasons, have turned on the team, raining it with loud boos. "I know from the outside it looks like a bunch of overpaid guys not performing," Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove said after a June 29 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. "But sometimes there's just no answer. We're going through it right now."
With the Padres hosting the Mets for a three-game series starting Friday, let's look at each team's big offseason moves -- the ones that have the teams' combined payrolls approaching $775 million with penalties -- and how those have played out this season.

Mets: Justin Verlander (2 years, $86.66 million)​

The Mets turned away from Jacob deGrom, not trusting his health, and instead signed 2022 American League Cy Young winner Verlander, giving him a $43.33 annual salary that matched what they gave Max Scherzer in 2021, as well as a 2025 conditional option. The Mets weren't willing to bet on deGrom's health -- they were right in that department, with deGrom out for the season after undergoing elbow surgery -- but were willing to bet on a 40-year-old Verlander and a 38-year-old Scherzer (who turns 39 later this month).
It's easy to second-guess that decision since neither has pitched up to their recent levels of success, but these were two of the best in the game last year. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Verlander allowed the lowest OPS, ranked 19th in strikeout rate and 12th in strikeouts-walks percentage. Scherzer ranked 10th in OPS, ninth in strikeout rate and third in SO-BB percentage.
Verlander, who began the season on the injured list, is 3-4 with a 3.66 ERA. He suddenly does look his age. While he dominated last season, his strikeout rate has dropped from his pre-Tommy John surgery days and even more in 2023:
2018: 34.8%
2019: 35.4%
2022: 27.8%
2023: 20.8%
Scherzer, meanwhile, is 8-2 with a 4.03 ERA. He made just one start between April 19 and May 14 due to a neck/back issue and then served a 10-day suspension following his ejection for having a foreign substance on one of his hands during a game against the Dodgers. His K rate is 27.5%, still very good, but the lowest he's had since 2011. His .737 OPS allowed is significantly above last year's .574. Maybe the injuries are playing a part, or maybe it's what happens at 38, but he's been less dominant.

Padres: Xander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million)​

The Padres pursued Aaron Judge. They offered Trea Turner more money than the Phillies. The Padres settled on Bogaerts to play shortstop, leading to a reconfiguration of the infield that shifted Ha-Seong Kim to second base, Jake Cronenworth to first and Fernando Tatis Jr., returning from his PED suspension, to the outfield. More importantly, it gave the Padres a supposedly big four on offense: Juan Soto, Tatis, Machado and Bogaerts.
That group has yet to click at the same time and all four are producing below their career norms, with Tatis the closest -- he's quietly had an All-Star-level first half. Still, it's far from what the Padres had hoped from this group. Let's look at the estimated batting runs above average from Baseball-Reference to compare 2023 to 2022 (or 2021 in Tatis' case.)
2021/2022:
Tatis: plus-43 (in just 130 games)
Machado: plus-44
Soto: plus-40
Bogaerts: plus-21
Total: plus-148 runs
And here's where they were at the halfway point of 2023:
Tatis: plus-16
Machado: zero
Soto: plus-24
Bogaerts: plus-2
Total: plus-42
Double that and you get plus-84 over 162 games. Throw in a few more since Tatis missed the start of the season completing his suspension, and maybe you're at plus-90. That's a 58-run difference than what was expected -- or about six wins over the course of a season. The big four hasn't been as great as hoped, but the group is hardly the only reason the Padres are scuffling. At least there's hope for the second half. Soto has rebounded from a slow start and Machado was much better in June (although still below what he did in 2022).

Mets: Edwin Diaz (5 years, $102 million)​

This was the first move the Mets made in the offseason, bringing back their closer on the richest deal for a reliever. Diaz was the best reliever in the game in 2022, striking out an incredible 50.2% of the batters he faced. It was a big price tag, but Diaz walking in from the bullpen to Timmy Trumpet and then wiping out the opposition, was one of the highlights of last season.
Then disaster struck. Diaz tore the patellar tendon in his right knee celebrating a victory in the World Baseball Classic in March and is likely to miss the whole season. The injury hasn't been quite as crushing to the Mets as it could have been. They had signed veteran reliever David Robertson, and he's been a superb replacement for Diaz as closer. Last year, the Mets were 89-0 when leading after eight innings. This year, they're 33-1.
That doesn't mean there hasn't been a ripple effect on the bullpen, however. Even with Diaz's dominance last season, the Mets' bullpen wasn't particularly deep and ranked 11th in the majors in win probability added at 3.03. Diaz was plus-3.60, so the rest of the pen was below average. Robertson and Brooks Raley, acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, were supposed to provide more depth. Instead, Robertson has had to pitch the ninth, Raley hasn't been particularly clutch and Adam Ottavino has been worse than a year ago. The pen has been a disaster: minus-2.11 WPA, 24th in the majors. The second-tier relievers have been exposed, as we saw in that Phillies game.

Padres: Nelson Cruz (1 year, $1 million), Matt Carpenter (2 years, $12 million), Jake Cronenworth (7 years, $80 million)​

The Padres signed Cruz and Carpenter to essentially platoon at DH and then gave Cronenworth an extension on April 1 that runs through 2030 -- a bit curious since he has a second baseman's bat is now playing first. First base and DH were two positions the Padres were mediocre at in 2022. Their first basemen ranked 19th in the majors in OPS, although Cronenworth's .722 OPS last season was only slightly better than the .713 they got at first. Their DHs weren't much better, ranking 12th, with a .725 OPS.
First base has been a disaster this year, as Padres first basemen are hitting .219/.309/.367, third-worst in the majors. Cronenworth admitted he hasn't played well. At DH, Carpenter has been unable to repeat the magic he had with the New York Yankees last season. Cruz was designated for assignment earlier this week. The Padres currently rank 28th in OPS at DH.
Indeed, while the big four have underwhelmed, the bottom of the Padres lineup has been mostly abysmal, aside from Kim. The Padres are 10th in the NL in runs, 14th in batting average and sixth in wRC+ (which factors in their home field of Petco Park). One hopeful sign: The Padres are hitting just .219 with runners in scoring position. Only two teams have batted slightly above .200 over a full season (the 2015 Cincinnati Reds hit .217 and the 2013 Chicago Cubs hit .218) since 2012. Positive regression there likely could boost the Padres offense in the second half.

Mets: Kodai Senga (5 years, $75 million), Jose Quintana (2 years, $26 million)​

Senga and Quintana replaced Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, who left as free agents and were a combined 27-14 with a 3.45 ERA. Most importantly, the pair made 59 starts. Senga's ghost forkball has been dominant at times, but he's also been wild at others, averaging less than six innings per start. I believe the Mets viewed Senga's upside as a potentially upgrade over Bassitt, but he's basically replaced Bassitt in production. Although he's on pace to throw about 20 fewer innings than Bassitt did last season -- 20 innings that will have to go to the soft middle of that Mets bullpen.
Quintana, meanwhile, hasn't pitched yet and that leads to the Mets' biggest problem: The back of the rotation has stressed more than the Cross Bronx Expressway at 5 p.m. ET during rush hour. The Mets believed they had enough depth to cover for injuries, but David Peterson and Tylor Megill, who were solid last season, were demoted to Triple-A (Peterson is currently back in the rotation). Carlos Carrasco, who threw eight scoreless innings Thursday, has been almost unusable most of the season, with a 3-3 record and a 5.16 ERA. The Mets were fifth in the majors in rotation ERA in 2022; they've dropped to 19th in 2023.

Padres: Robert Suarez (5 years, $46 million)​

The Padres signed Suarez out of Japan before last season and he pitched well with a 2.27 ERA in 47⅔ innings, good enough that he became a free agent and the Padres re-signed him to a big deal that raised more than a few eyebrows. Like Quintana, he's been injured all season. While Josh Hader has been dominant as the closer, Suarez's absence has shown up in other areas: The Padres are 5-15 in one-run games and 0-7 in extra-innings contests.
We didn't dig into everything here. The Mets also gave Brandon Nimmo a huge deal when they re-signed him as a free agent, and he's played well -- although the rest of the Mets' offense has underperformed. One small move has paid off for each: Tommy Pham for New York and Michael Wacha (8-2 with a 2.84 ERA) for San Diego. Wacha, however, is on the IL with shoulder inflammation.

Still, there is no way to mask the disappointment by both clubs. It's also yet another valuable lesson: Spending money in baseball helps -- a lot -- but it guarantees nothing. Looking at the three highest payrolls in each of the past 10 full seasons, those teams averaged 89.5 wins -- successful, but hardly dominant. Seven of those 30 teams were Dodgers teams. Take them out of the equation and the average goes down to 86.7 wins and includes five losing teams -- including the 2021 Padres, who finished 79-83 with the second-highest payroll.

Between this season's Mets and Padres teams, the Padres seem like the better bet to turn things around. Their pitching and defense are much better than the Mets and the Soto/Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts foursome should collectively hit better -- and that teamwide average with runners in scoring position will go up.

Still, the move needs to come now. Otherwise, we may see a new version of Bob Klapisch and John Harper's book on the 1992 Mets, titled -- much like that Post headline -- "The Worst Team Money Could Buy."

tl;dr both teams spent a lot of money on players who for the first half of the season have been injured, trash or both.
 
frink85 said:
tl;dr both teams spent a lot of money on players who for the first half of the season have been injured, trash or both.
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can't wait to go see both teams square off tonight :lol:

darvish v verlander though...could be good :pimp: :lol:
 
DsLee said:
Ended up selling both my derby and game tix. Transitioning to new gig and didn't think I'd make it :smh:

Taking the family to the MLB Play Ball stuff tomorrow though! They're doing stuff all over the city so it's cool.
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You want tix for that?
 
I’m watching Mets/Padres on SNY and one of the guys on the Mets announcing crew is clowning the Padres for giving 36 y/o Yu Darvish a 6 yr deal, which is a fair point unless it’s coming from someone connected to the Mets, who just signed two near 40 year old pitchers to deals with absurd yearly salaries
 
Bantz Lord T said:
I’m watching Mets/Padres on SNY and one of the guys on the Mets announcing crew is clowning the Padres for giving 36 y/o Yu Darvish a 6 yr deal, which is a fair point unless it’s coming from someone connected to the Mets, who just signed two near 40 year old pitchers to deals with absurd yearly salaries
Click to expand...

GKR blast the Mets too. Cohen doesn’t own SNY, The Coupons still do.
 
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