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If Sheppard can play PG not seeing how Dillingham has that much of a Higher ceiling
Both are really good players
Both are really good players
2024 NBA Draft Thread
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Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle and 7 more NBA Draft prospects to watch in March
Who’s ready to do some NBA Draft homework?
With men’s college basketball’s major conference tournaments on tap this week and the NCAA Tournament just around the corner, these next two weeks are a great opportunity for fans of struggling pro teams to do some quick research on the better prospects for this June.
Before we get too deep in the weeds, let’s start with the 10,000-foot view: It’s an unusual draft this year on two levels. First, there is no consensus No. 1 pick right now, or anything even close; this is the most jumbled I’ve seen draft boards since the 2013 draft, when Anthony Bennett was the surprise top pick. Second, several of the best prospects aren’t actually in college basketball. Between G League Ignite and overseas leagues, it’s possible five players will be off the board before a single player is drafted from the NCAA.
Nonetheless, there’s talent every year, and this one is no exception. The key is separating the wheat from the chaff, and while this year might have an unusual amount of chaff, I assure you we will look back in 10 years and realize there were some useful grains.
What follows, then, is a bit of a viewing guide toward the most interesting players to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks, both based on their likelihood of actually participating in meaningful games and on the relative question marks about their games that might get resolved for fans (and scouts) in that time.
This isn’t necessarily a ranking of my top college prospects but a ranking of how much I’d want to track each of them for draft purposes. Here are my top nine players to watch in the madness of March:
1. Reed Sheppard, 6-2 freshman guard, Kentucky
One of the interesting subplots of the past few months has been seeing evaluators try to avoid the conclusion that Reed Sheppard is the best NCAA prospect despite having the evidence punch them in the face every day. Of late, however, Sheppard’s play seems to have won over even his biggest skeptics. He was dominant — again — in Kentucky’s 85-81 win over No. 4 Tennessee on Saturday, finishing with a 27-6-5 line on just 14 shots.
Inexplicably coming off the bench (along with Kentucky’s other likely lottery-bound freshman guard Rob Dillingham) and thus limited to 29 minutes per game, Sheppard has defensive stats that jump off the page. He’s averaging 4.7 steals per 100 possessions, second only to Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey among major college players, and despite standing 6-2 with a 6-3 wingspan, has blocked 23 shots this season. The eye test backs this up; Kentucky isn’t good on defense, but Sheppard has been a terror.
Meanwhile, his outside shot has been cash. Sheppard is shooting 52.6 percent from 3 and 84.1 percent from the line, with hair-trigger speed on his 3-point launch. While you’d like to see him get more up than his 8.1 attempts per 100, he’s also been effective in the paint (55.7 percent on 2s); the biggest issue in his statistical record is a relatively low usage rate, which can be explained partly by how often he’s shared the court with Dillingham and partly by John Calipari’s multi-decade track record of being the best defense against talented guards.
Nitpickers can have some fun around the edges, perhaps. Sheppard hasn’t had the keys to the offense at Kentucky and would likely need to be a full-time point guard as a pro; he’s been a bit more turnover-prone than you’d hope as well. And his shooting probably isn’t as good as his percentages indicate, because nobody is that good.
Finally, teams will surely fixate on Sheppard’s stature. But “I wish you were 2 inches taller” isn’t an actual weakness unless you can connect it to some other basketball deficiency; Sheppard’s tape and stat lines don’t betray any shortcomings that you can link back to his size.
2. Stephon Castle, 6-6 freshman guard, Connecticut
While Stephon Castle’s teammate, the massive sophomore Donovan Clingan, is a likely lottery pick, he’s also more of a known quantity at this point. (I wrote about Clingan after my visit to Hartford for UConn-Marquette last month.)
Castle is the more challenging evaluation for scouts, a one-and-done playing as the fifth option on a stacked Huskies team trying to repeat as national champions. He seems clearly capable of more but also has some offensive limitations that could hold him back even at the next level. Most notably, his jump shot is inconsistent — he’s at 30.1 percent from 3 on low volume and has a slow release that at times looks as though his arms are fighting each other.
However, Castle’s combination of size, ball skills and athleticism hints at bigger things. He wowed scouts with 14 points, six rebounds, four steals, three assists and nary a turnover in Connecticut’s rout of Providence this past weekend; on the season, he averages more than two dimes for every assist and, even with the giant Clingan soaking up so many boards, has an impressive 9.7 percent rebound rate in Big East play.
Castle could really push into the top half of the lottery with a strong March, especially because scouts are still catching up on him after he missed time early in the season with a knee injury. Given the strength of his team, he may still have nine more games to showcase himself.
3. Cody Williams, 6-8 freshman forward, Colorado
Pour one out for execs’ annual Las Vegas trip in March. With the implosion of the Pac-12 Conference, also gone is the one-stop shopping for front offices to catch up on every player west of the Rockies in one sitting by catching the West Coast, Mountain West and Pac-12 tournaments in succession in Sin City.
However, the final version of this should be an absolute banger for scouts, with the Pac-12 punching far above its weight in prospects and an unusually strong year in the Mountain West enabling them to fill in around the edges.
Of particular note for talent evaluators is the Colorado squad that could have three players selected in the upcoming draft. While senior guard K.J. Simpson is a first-round sleeper and German forward Tristan da Silva a sniper candidate in Round 2, the focus will be on Williams.
The brother of Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams, Cody has had an up-and-down freshman year for the Buffaloes. He has compelling physical tools as a true wing who stands 6-8 and is comfortable pushing in transition and shooting floaters on the move.
However, he’s also had trouble putting potential into practice at times. He’s a 70.8 percent foul shooter and has only taken 35 3-point attempts all season, with a low push shot that is hard to get to on the move. On the ball, Williams keeps his head up for hit-ahead passes, but that has mostly been as a one-way, right-handed driver.
Overall, Williams’ percentages and numbers are solid (13.7 ppg on 59.0 percent shooting; 17.5 PER in Pac-12 play), but teams looking at taking him in the top 10 — or even top five — will want to see more signs of star-level ceiling. In particular, analytics models might not be a huge fan of Williams given his relatively low rates of blocks, steals, rebounds and assists. Defensively, opponents don’t feel his size; he has a habit of giving up ground then letting his thin frame get nudged out of the way, with a particularly rude example in the Isaiah Collier clip further down.
The other issue for scouts is whether he plays at all. Williams sat out a weekend series against Oregon and Oregon State with an ankle injury and missed a month earlier this season with a wrist problem. Colorado enters the Pac-12 tournament on the NCAA Tournament bubble and likely needs to win at least once to make the field; otherwise, you’ll need to check the NIT pairings to find more of Williams.
4. Isaiah Collier, 6-5 freshman guard, USC
Blink, and you might miss it: USC plays the Pac-12 tournament opener against Washington on Wednesday afternoon, and the Trojans’ season will end if they lose.
I caught Collier in USC’s upset win over Arizona this past weekend and was going to make him my Prospect of the Week until my Monday column was clocking in at roughly the length of “War and Peace.” So let’s talk about Collier here instead.
While I was seeing Bronny James in L.A., the main event for scouts was his teammate Collier, who has reinvigorated his flagging draft stock since returning from a midseason injury by averaging 20 points and two steals over his last seven games. He scored 16 in the Trojans’ upset win over Arizona, including a crowd-pleasing breakaway dunk that basically put a bow on the win, and continues to show the first-step burst to score at a high rate in the NBA. Here’s one example from earlier this season:
Notably for scouts, Collier also hop-stepped into a semi-contested catch-and-shoot 3 for one of his buckets. Outside shooting has been one of the question marks on his scouting report — 32.9 percent from 3, 67.8 percent from the line — with a flick off his forehead that doesn’t always repeat the same arc. Collier also has been reluctant to let fly at times, with only 76 attempts on the season; here, for instance, he eats the ball rather than take the 3 the defense has happily conceded.
Collier’s burst off the dribble is accompanied by the power to shrug off defenders on his way to the cup, enabling him to finish in the trees effectively (and also amass a massive free-throw rate) even though he’s mostly doing it below the rim. Watch here, for instance, as he puts a shoulder into Colorado’s Williams (discussed above) and it’s all over; even though the 6-8 Williams should have the advantage closer to the rim, it’s tough for him to make a play while he’s impaled on the stanchion.
Collier also has made strides as a passer and distributor, cutting what was a sky-high early-season turnover rate to something a bit more manageable. He has a habit of throwing almost comically inaccurate passes and had two such instances in the Arizona game (an alley-oop pass thrown to the top of the Hollywood sign and an ankle-biter kickout that nearly tripped its recipient) and can get wildly out of control at times.
While it’s important to remember that he’s labored under a huge usage rate (30.4 percent) as a freshman on a bad team, it’s not hard to build a compendium of drives or shots that end up looking something like this:
That said, Collier’s turnover rate did level off somewhat in conference play, to a still-not-great 14.5 percent. As I noted above, Collier may only have one college game left, but if the Trojans win Wednesday, they’ll get a rematch against Arizona on Thursday; to extend his college career beyond this weekend would require USC to sweep four straight games and seize an automatic NCAA bid by winning the Pac 12 tournament.
5. Dalton Knecht, 6-7 senior forward, Tennessee
A late bloomer who transferred in from Northern Colorado and has taken the SEC by storm, Dalton Knecht hung a 40-burger on Kentucky in a losing effort Saturday, and while he wasn’t super-efficient about it (29 shot attempts and four turnovers), he’s wielded his scoring scalpel much more effectively in other SEC contests. Knecht’s stats in conference games are almost Maravichian: 45.7 points per 100, 42.4 percent from 3, 60.3 percent true shooting, 31.7 PER.
Those 3-point shooting numbers are particularly impressive given the volume and difficulty. As Plan A, B and C for every opposing defense, Knecht makes attempts that are often contested looks off the dribble or running catch-and-shoots flying off pin-downs. Squint and you can see Klay Thompson.
Knecht’s shot has more of a line-drive trajectory than you’d prefer, and his 73.4 percent mark from the line indicates that his current 3-point percentage might be at the high end of what we should expect long term. But movement shooters who can connect at anywhere near this rate are hugely valuable in the NBA — the New Orleans Pelicans’ Jordan Hawkins, for instance, was a 2023 lottery pick based almost entirely off this skill, and he doesn’t have anywhere near the physical profile or shot-creation skill of Knecht.
The question now for scouts is basically one of “How high?” in terms of where Knecht’s shooting skill will put him in the NBA next year, but teams will be watching his lateral movement closely to see how well he can hold up as a wing defender. As an older player who will be 23 on draft night, Knecht also will be evaluated through the lens of being four years older than most of the players who will go in the top 20.
Tennessee may get a rematch with Kentucky in the SEC tournament this week, and regardless should be no worse than a No. 2 seed for the NCAA Tournament.
6. Kyle Filipowski, 6-11 sophomore big, Duke
While all Kyle Filipowski-rattled discourse is currently focused on The Trip and whether the ghost of Grayson Allen has poisoned him with Dukie Unlikability Cooties, the more relevant consideration for scouts is seeing how Filipowski fares against the top-tier offenses he’ll likely face during the late rounds of the upcoming ACC and NCAA tournaments.
Filipowski is clearly talented and productive, but the topic that warrants further scrutiny is whether his best pro position is the four or the five. Filipowski shows flashes of perimeter skill and can take like-sized players off the dribble all day, but he’s also a 31.4 percent career 3-point shooter and at 71.8 percent career from the line.
While he’s not some plodder out of central casting — he averages 2.4 steals per 100 for his career — it still seems questionable whether Filipowski’s feet can hold up on defense as a modern four. However, playing him at the five comes with its own problems; his rebound and block rates are underwhelming for a center, and he’s neither a rim runner nor a post-up masher.
The ultimate question, then, is whether Filipowski is a big more like Al Horford in that he can toggle between the four and five and play effectively at both, or whether he’s more like Frank Kaminsky and can’t quite do either. There’s only $100 million or so riding on the answer.
7. Oso Ighodaro, 6-11 senior center, Marquette
Oso Ighodaro has been one of this draft cycle’s more difficult evaluations, as a skilled big man who is also a non-shooting big. I’m a big believer in the idea that bigs who can pass usually figure out the rest, and some quirky-but-successful bigs of recent yore (Alperen Şengün, Nikola Jokić and, of course from my experience, Marc Gasol) are the proof of that concept. Well, Ighodaro can definitely pass; he averaged six dimes per 100 possessions in 2022-23 and is at 5.1 per 100 this season.
Ighorado also has a good handle for his size; his team even runs inverted pick-and-rolls for him at times. With that skill set, one can easily envision him operating at the elbows in a pro offense. He’s a big fan of short floaters and shoots almost Şengün-esque push shots from 10 feet, plus can get to more standard jump hooks in the paint, especially against mismatches.
What’s missing is the more nuts-and-bolts big man domination you’d expect to see at this level. His rebound rate of just 13.5 percent is piddling for a college five, and the shot-blocking numbers are just OK. He hasn’t been an impactful rim runner either, with a tendency to turn down contact and rim attacks and settle for those short floaters. Additionally, drafting upperclassmen centers hasn’t been a very productive strategy in recent times; Ighodaro will be 22 when he enters his first NBA season.
On the other hand, he’s a legit 6-11 and has improved every year, and his fit at the pro level is perhaps neater than it is in college. Is that enough to get him into the top 20 in a draft where all the college bigs have question marks? A deep run from what is likely to be a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament could help his cause.
8. Devin Carter, 6-3 junior guard, Providence
The son of former Heat guard (and University of Hawai’i legend) Anthony Carter, the apple didn’t fall far from the tree here. Devin Carter might be this year’s version of Jaime Jaquez Jr., a tough, smart player who manages to be incredibly effective despite lacking a buttery stroke or electric athleticism.
Old-timers who saw his pops will appreciate Devin shooting moon-ball jumpers on the exact same trajectory, despite a different release point. The younger Carter also has improved on accuracy this season, knocking down 38.5 percent from 3 (up from 29.9 percent as a sophomore) while nearly doubling his volume from a year earlier. Despite standing only 6-3, Carter is a beast on the glass, with a monstrous 15.3 percent rebound rate in Big East games; his defensive rebound rate is percentage points away from leading the conference.
Carter filled the stat sheet Saturday against mighty UConn, with 24 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, two blocks and two steals; unfortunately, his team was down by three touchdowns moments after the opening tip and struggled to ever make it a game. That type of output has been par for the course this year, however, as the junior guard has a 29.4 PER in Big East games with eye-popping 32.1-14.2-5.9 per 100 possession stats.
Currently pegged as a mid-to-late first-rounder, Carter has scouts wondering if his shooting is real and whether his on-ball playmaking can handle moving to the point full time; otherwise, he becomes a mildly interesting undersized two. Providence also needs at least one win this week to cement an NCAA Tournament bid; otherwise, the Friars are likely headed to the NIT. Carter’s squad should have a layup in the opening round Thursday against lowly Georgetown before a stern test against a strong Creighton team.
9. Payton Sandfort, 6-7 junior forward, Iowa
One of the things I’ve asked scouts I run into is where they’ll be headed for conference tournament week. Thus far, none have told me they’re going to the Big Ten tournament; unusually for a power conference, it is something of a wasteland when it comes to NBA talent this season and may not have a single player picked in the first round.
A few very familiar players, including Purdue’s Zach Edey and Indiana’s Kel’El Ware, could break through into the top 30. But as far as a potential late riser to watch, Sandfort is the Big Ten’s most interesting one.
The junior’s combination of size (6-7) and shooting (90.1 percent career from the line, 13.9 3-point launches per 100 possessions) automatically gets him on the radar, and he’s not just some standstill catch-and-shoot fungo hitter either. Sandfort had the first triple-double in Iowa men’s basketball history(!) last week when he dropped a 26-10-10 line against Penn State. (Caitlin Clark probably had three in the time I needed to type that sentence.)
Sandfort intrigues with his passing skill (five dimes per 100 and more than two for every turnover) and punches above his weight on the glass with an 11.2 percent rebound rate in Big Ten games. The next question is lateral movement; scouts want to see him defend against speed. He won’t get much of that in the plodding Big Ten, but he might if Iowa sneaks an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa is firmly on the bubble, opening its Big Ten tourney on Thursday against Ohio State before a potential second-round game against a tough, athletic Illinois team that held Sandfort in check last weekend. The Hawkeyes likely need to win at least twice to get in; otherwise, diehards can check those NIT listings.
Who’s ready to do some NBA Draft homework?
With men’s college basketball’s major conference tournaments on tap this week and the NCAA Tournament just around the corner, these next two weeks are a great opportunity for fans of struggling pro teams to do some quick research on the better prospects for this June.
Before we get too deep in the weeds, let’s start with the 10,000-foot view: It’s an unusual draft this year on two levels. First, there is no consensus No. 1 pick right now, or anything even close; this is the most jumbled I’ve seen draft boards since the 2013 draft, when Anthony Bennett was the surprise top pick. Second, several of the best prospects aren’t actually in college basketball. Between G League Ignite and overseas leagues, it’s possible five players will be off the board before a single player is drafted from the NCAA.
Nonetheless, there’s talent every year, and this one is no exception. The key is separating the wheat from the chaff, and while this year might have an unusual amount of chaff, I assure you we will look back in 10 years and realize there were some useful grains.
What follows, then, is a bit of a viewing guide toward the most interesting players to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks, both based on their likelihood of actually participating in meaningful games and on the relative question marks about their games that might get resolved for fans (and scouts) in that time.
This isn’t necessarily a ranking of my top college prospects but a ranking of how much I’d want to track each of them for draft purposes. Here are my top nine players to watch in the madness of March:
1. Reed Sheppard, 6-2 freshman guard, Kentucky
One of the interesting subplots of the past few months has been seeing evaluators try to avoid the conclusion that Reed Sheppard is the best NCAA prospect despite having the evidence punch them in the face every day. Of late, however, Sheppard’s play seems to have won over even his biggest skeptics. He was dominant — again — in Kentucky’s 85-81 win over No. 4 Tennessee on Saturday, finishing with a 27-6-5 line on just 14 shots.
Inexplicably coming off the bench (along with Kentucky’s other likely lottery-bound freshman guard Rob Dillingham) and thus limited to 29 minutes per game, Sheppard has defensive stats that jump off the page. He’s averaging 4.7 steals per 100 possessions, second only to Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey among major college players, and despite standing 6-2 with a 6-3 wingspan, has blocked 23 shots this season. The eye test backs this up; Kentucky isn’t good on defense, but Sheppard has been a terror.
Meanwhile, his outside shot has been cash. Sheppard is shooting 52.6 percent from 3 and 84.1 percent from the line, with hair-trigger speed on his 3-point launch. While you’d like to see him get more up than his 8.1 attempts per 100, he’s also been effective in the paint (55.7 percent on 2s); the biggest issue in his statistical record is a relatively low usage rate, which can be explained partly by how often he’s shared the court with Dillingham and partly by John Calipari’s multi-decade track record of being the best defense against talented guards.
Nitpickers can have some fun around the edges, perhaps. Sheppard hasn’t had the keys to the offense at Kentucky and would likely need to be a full-time point guard as a pro; he’s been a bit more turnover-prone than you’d hope as well. And his shooting probably isn’t as good as his percentages indicate, because nobody is that good.
Finally, teams will surely fixate on Sheppard’s stature. But “I wish you were 2 inches taller” isn’t an actual weakness unless you can connect it to some other basketball deficiency; Sheppard’s tape and stat lines don’t betray any shortcomings that you can link back to his size.
2. Stephon Castle, 6-6 freshman guard, Connecticut
While Stephon Castle’s teammate, the massive sophomore Donovan Clingan, is a likely lottery pick, he’s also more of a known quantity at this point. (I wrote about Clingan after my visit to Hartford for UConn-Marquette last month.)
Castle is the more challenging evaluation for scouts, a one-and-done playing as the fifth option on a stacked Huskies team trying to repeat as national champions. He seems clearly capable of more but also has some offensive limitations that could hold him back even at the next level. Most notably, his jump shot is inconsistent — he’s at 30.1 percent from 3 on low volume and has a slow release that at times looks as though his arms are fighting each other.
However, Castle’s combination of size, ball skills and athleticism hints at bigger things. He wowed scouts with 14 points, six rebounds, four steals, three assists and nary a turnover in Connecticut’s rout of Providence this past weekend; on the season, he averages more than two dimes for every assist and, even with the giant Clingan soaking up so many boards, has an impressive 9.7 percent rebound rate in Big East play.
Castle could really push into the top half of the lottery with a strong March, especially because scouts are still catching up on him after he missed time early in the season with a knee injury. Given the strength of his team, he may still have nine more games to showcase himself.
3. Cody Williams, 6-8 freshman forward, Colorado
Pour one out for execs’ annual Las Vegas trip in March. With the implosion of the Pac-12 Conference, also gone is the one-stop shopping for front offices to catch up on every player west of the Rockies in one sitting by catching the West Coast, Mountain West and Pac-12 tournaments in succession in Sin City.
However, the final version of this should be an absolute banger for scouts, with the Pac-12 punching far above its weight in prospects and an unusually strong year in the Mountain West enabling them to fill in around the edges.
Of particular note for talent evaluators is the Colorado squad that could have three players selected in the upcoming draft. While senior guard K.J. Simpson is a first-round sleeper and German forward Tristan da Silva a sniper candidate in Round 2, the focus will be on Williams.
The brother of Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams, Cody has had an up-and-down freshman year for the Buffaloes. He has compelling physical tools as a true wing who stands 6-8 and is comfortable pushing in transition and shooting floaters on the move.
However, he’s also had trouble putting potential into practice at times. He’s a 70.8 percent foul shooter and has only taken 35 3-point attempts all season, with a low push shot that is hard to get to on the move. On the ball, Williams keeps his head up for hit-ahead passes, but that has mostly been as a one-way, right-handed driver.
Overall, Williams’ percentages and numbers are solid (13.7 ppg on 59.0 percent shooting; 17.5 PER in Pac-12 play), but teams looking at taking him in the top 10 — or even top five — will want to see more signs of star-level ceiling. In particular, analytics models might not be a huge fan of Williams given his relatively low rates of blocks, steals, rebounds and assists. Defensively, opponents don’t feel his size; he has a habit of giving up ground then letting his thin frame get nudged out of the way, with a particularly rude example in the Isaiah Collier clip further down.
The other issue for scouts is whether he plays at all. Williams sat out a weekend series against Oregon and Oregon State with an ankle injury and missed a month earlier this season with a wrist problem. Colorado enters the Pac-12 tournament on the NCAA Tournament bubble and likely needs to win at least once to make the field; otherwise, you’ll need to check the NIT pairings to find more of Williams.
4. Isaiah Collier, 6-5 freshman guard, USC
Blink, and you might miss it: USC plays the Pac-12 tournament opener against Washington on Wednesday afternoon, and the Trojans’ season will end if they lose.
I caught Collier in USC’s upset win over Arizona this past weekend and was going to make him my Prospect of the Week until my Monday column was clocking in at roughly the length of “War and Peace.” So let’s talk about Collier here instead.
While I was seeing Bronny James in L.A., the main event for scouts was his teammate Collier, who has reinvigorated his flagging draft stock since returning from a midseason injury by averaging 20 points and two steals over his last seven games. He scored 16 in the Trojans’ upset win over Arizona, including a crowd-pleasing breakaway dunk that basically put a bow on the win, and continues to show the first-step burst to score at a high rate in the NBA. Here’s one example from earlier this season:
Notably for scouts, Collier also hop-stepped into a semi-contested catch-and-shoot 3 for one of his buckets. Outside shooting has been one of the question marks on his scouting report — 32.9 percent from 3, 67.8 percent from the line — with a flick off his forehead that doesn’t always repeat the same arc. Collier also has been reluctant to let fly at times, with only 76 attempts on the season; here, for instance, he eats the ball rather than take the 3 the defense has happily conceded.
Collier’s burst off the dribble is accompanied by the power to shrug off defenders on his way to the cup, enabling him to finish in the trees effectively (and also amass a massive free-throw rate) even though he’s mostly doing it below the rim. Watch here, for instance, as he puts a shoulder into Colorado’s Williams (discussed above) and it’s all over; even though the 6-8 Williams should have the advantage closer to the rim, it’s tough for him to make a play while he’s impaled on the stanchion.
Collier also has made strides as a passer and distributor, cutting what was a sky-high early-season turnover rate to something a bit more manageable. He has a habit of throwing almost comically inaccurate passes and had two such instances in the Arizona game (an alley-oop pass thrown to the top of the Hollywood sign and an ankle-biter kickout that nearly tripped its recipient) and can get wildly out of control at times.
While it’s important to remember that he’s labored under a huge usage rate (30.4 percent) as a freshman on a bad team, it’s not hard to build a compendium of drives or shots that end up looking something like this:
That said, Collier’s turnover rate did level off somewhat in conference play, to a still-not-great 14.5 percent. As I noted above, Collier may only have one college game left, but if the Trojans win Wednesday, they’ll get a rematch against Arizona on Thursday; to extend his college career beyond this weekend would require USC to sweep four straight games and seize an automatic NCAA bid by winning the Pac 12 tournament.
5. Dalton Knecht, 6-7 senior forward, Tennessee
A late bloomer who transferred in from Northern Colorado and has taken the SEC by storm, Dalton Knecht hung a 40-burger on Kentucky in a losing effort Saturday, and while he wasn’t super-efficient about it (29 shot attempts and four turnovers), he’s wielded his scoring scalpel much more effectively in other SEC contests. Knecht’s stats in conference games are almost Maravichian: 45.7 points per 100, 42.4 percent from 3, 60.3 percent true shooting, 31.7 PER.
Those 3-point shooting numbers are particularly impressive given the volume and difficulty. As Plan A, B and C for every opposing defense, Knecht makes attempts that are often contested looks off the dribble or running catch-and-shoots flying off pin-downs. Squint and you can see Klay Thompson.
Knecht’s shot has more of a line-drive trajectory than you’d prefer, and his 73.4 percent mark from the line indicates that his current 3-point percentage might be at the high end of what we should expect long term. But movement shooters who can connect at anywhere near this rate are hugely valuable in the NBA — the New Orleans Pelicans’ Jordan Hawkins, for instance, was a 2023 lottery pick based almost entirely off this skill, and he doesn’t have anywhere near the physical profile or shot-creation skill of Knecht.
The question now for scouts is basically one of “How high?” in terms of where Knecht’s shooting skill will put him in the NBA next year, but teams will be watching his lateral movement closely to see how well he can hold up as a wing defender. As an older player who will be 23 on draft night, Knecht also will be evaluated through the lens of being four years older than most of the players who will go in the top 20.
Tennessee may get a rematch with Kentucky in the SEC tournament this week, and regardless should be no worse than a No. 2 seed for the NCAA Tournament.
6. Kyle Filipowski, 6-11 sophomore big, Duke
While all Kyle Filipowski-rattled discourse is currently focused on The Trip and whether the ghost of Grayson Allen has poisoned him with Dukie Unlikability Cooties, the more relevant consideration for scouts is seeing how Filipowski fares against the top-tier offenses he’ll likely face during the late rounds of the upcoming ACC and NCAA tournaments.
Filipowski is clearly talented and productive, but the topic that warrants further scrutiny is whether his best pro position is the four or the five. Filipowski shows flashes of perimeter skill and can take like-sized players off the dribble all day, but he’s also a 31.4 percent career 3-point shooter and at 71.8 percent career from the line.
While he’s not some plodder out of central casting — he averages 2.4 steals per 100 for his career — it still seems questionable whether Filipowski’s feet can hold up on defense as a modern four. However, playing him at the five comes with its own problems; his rebound and block rates are underwhelming for a center, and he’s neither a rim runner nor a post-up masher.
The ultimate question, then, is whether Filipowski is a big more like Al Horford in that he can toggle between the four and five and play effectively at both, or whether he’s more like Frank Kaminsky and can’t quite do either. There’s only $100 million or so riding on the answer.
7. Oso Ighodaro, 6-11 senior center, Marquette
Oso Ighodaro has been one of this draft cycle’s more difficult evaluations, as a skilled big man who is also a non-shooting big. I’m a big believer in the idea that bigs who can pass usually figure out the rest, and some quirky-but-successful bigs of recent yore (Alperen Şengün, Nikola Jokić and, of course from my experience, Marc Gasol) are the proof of that concept. Well, Ighodaro can definitely pass; he averaged six dimes per 100 possessions in 2022-23 and is at 5.1 per 100 this season.
Ighorado also has a good handle for his size; his team even runs inverted pick-and-rolls for him at times. With that skill set, one can easily envision him operating at the elbows in a pro offense. He’s a big fan of short floaters and shoots almost Şengün-esque push shots from 10 feet, plus can get to more standard jump hooks in the paint, especially against mismatches.
What’s missing is the more nuts-and-bolts big man domination you’d expect to see at this level. His rebound rate of just 13.5 percent is piddling for a college five, and the shot-blocking numbers are just OK. He hasn’t been an impactful rim runner either, with a tendency to turn down contact and rim attacks and settle for those short floaters. Additionally, drafting upperclassmen centers hasn’t been a very productive strategy in recent times; Ighodaro will be 22 when he enters his first NBA season.
On the other hand, he’s a legit 6-11 and has improved every year, and his fit at the pro level is perhaps neater than it is in college. Is that enough to get him into the top 20 in a draft where all the college bigs have question marks? A deep run from what is likely to be a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament could help his cause.
8. Devin Carter, 6-3 junior guard, Providence
The son of former Heat guard (and University of Hawai’i legend) Anthony Carter, the apple didn’t fall far from the tree here. Devin Carter might be this year’s version of Jaime Jaquez Jr., a tough, smart player who manages to be incredibly effective despite lacking a buttery stroke or electric athleticism.
Old-timers who saw his pops will appreciate Devin shooting moon-ball jumpers on the exact same trajectory, despite a different release point. The younger Carter also has improved on accuracy this season, knocking down 38.5 percent from 3 (up from 29.9 percent as a sophomore) while nearly doubling his volume from a year earlier. Despite standing only 6-3, Carter is a beast on the glass, with a monstrous 15.3 percent rebound rate in Big East games; his defensive rebound rate is percentage points away from leading the conference.
Carter filled the stat sheet Saturday against mighty UConn, with 24 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, two blocks and two steals; unfortunately, his team was down by three touchdowns moments after the opening tip and struggled to ever make it a game. That type of output has been par for the course this year, however, as the junior guard has a 29.4 PER in Big East games with eye-popping 32.1-14.2-5.9 per 100 possession stats.
Currently pegged as a mid-to-late first-rounder, Carter has scouts wondering if his shooting is real and whether his on-ball playmaking can handle moving to the point full time; otherwise, he becomes a mildly interesting undersized two. Providence also needs at least one win this week to cement an NCAA Tournament bid; otherwise, the Friars are likely headed to the NIT. Carter’s squad should have a layup in the opening round Thursday against lowly Georgetown before a stern test against a strong Creighton team.
9. Payton Sandfort, 6-7 junior forward, Iowa
One of the things I’ve asked scouts I run into is where they’ll be headed for conference tournament week. Thus far, none have told me they’re going to the Big Ten tournament; unusually for a power conference, it is something of a wasteland when it comes to NBA talent this season and may not have a single player picked in the first round.
A few very familiar players, including Purdue’s Zach Edey and Indiana’s Kel’El Ware, could break through into the top 30. But as far as a potential late riser to watch, Sandfort is the Big Ten’s most interesting one.
The junior’s combination of size (6-7) and shooting (90.1 percent career from the line, 13.9 3-point launches per 100 possessions) automatically gets him on the radar, and he’s not just some standstill catch-and-shoot fungo hitter either. Sandfort had the first triple-double in Iowa men’s basketball history(!) last week when he dropped a 26-10-10 line against Penn State. (Caitlin Clark probably had three in the time I needed to type that sentence.)
Sandfort intrigues with his passing skill (five dimes per 100 and more than two for every turnover) and punches above his weight on the glass with an 11.2 percent rebound rate in Big Ten games. The next question is lateral movement; scouts want to see him defend against speed. He won’t get much of that in the plodding Big Ten, but he might if Iowa sneaks an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa is firmly on the bubble, opening its Big Ten tourney on Thursday against Ohio State before a potential second-round game against a tough, athletic Illinois team that held Sandfort in check last weekend. The Hawkeyes likely need to win at least twice to get in; otherwise, diehards can check those NIT listings.
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Quicker off the bounce and better at creating his own shot, more athletic and creative finisher at the rim. Both look like liabilities on the defensive end, but if I had to put money on which one would be a 20ppg scorer in the NBA I would go rob.
Right now I think Reed is a better more consistent decision maker and has a higher floor than Rob but if you're going to take a small offensive guard high in the draft it doesn't make sense to not go for the home run IMO.
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Hate agreeing with Gilbert but he’s right
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Feel like that’s obvious…
dacomeup
Supporter
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You would think so but super teams has been in vogue for a while now on that level.
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College too at times
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So he took what Lavar did and tried to package it as his own idea 
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The same thing Gil said applies to AAU.
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Africa on the rise, luv to see it…NBA’s investment starting to show
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We there
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NBA Mock Draft: Zaccharie Risacher still No. 1; Sheppard, Castle could impress in March Madness
1. Portland Trail Blazers
Zaccharie Risacher | 6-8 wing/forward | 19 years old | JL Bourg
Risacher remains at No. 1 for now. It very well may not end this way, and draft workouts will play a critical role in the process. The NBA is constantly looking for big wing/forward types who can knock down shots, defend at a reasonable level and play with the ball in their hands. That makes Risacher the favorite right now to go No. 1; more teams will view his game as one that can fit into a valuable, flexible role for their teams. The race is WIDE open at No. 1, but handicapping it now, I think Risacher would be the pick for more teams than any other prospect.
The French wing has produced at a high level in EuroCup competition. Through March 13, in total EuroCup and French League games, he’s averaging 11.4 points while shooting 49.4 percent from the field, 44.7 percent from 3 and 69.4 percent from the free-throw line. He’s rebounding at a reasonable rate for a wing and has shown some passing and decision-making chops. His jumper looks ready for the NBA, with great touch off the catch and when Bourg runs him off movement actions. He cuts well to the rim and creates buckets in transition. On defense, Risacher is sharp as a help defender and cuts off angles with his length, especially when operating as the low man in ball-screen coverages. On the ball, he’s defended guards at times with mixed results, to the point where I think he’s best served against the two through four positions.
The worry: Risacher is not a good shot creator at this point. The difference between him and someone like current Charlotte Hornets rookie Brandon Miller is the latter knew how to play with more poise to create his own shots in pick-and-roll situations, particularly from the midrange area. Risacher doesn’t have those skills yet. He also doesn’t yet have the explosive first step to beat anyone or enough flexibility to shake opponents off the dribble. Still, he doesn’t turn 19 until April, so there’s a ton of room between where he is now and what he will be at his peak.
2. Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr | 7-1 big | 19 years old | Perth Wildcats
Sarr emerged early in this draft cycle as a legitimate potential No. 1 pick, starting with his performance against the G League Ignite in Las Vegas in early September, when scouts came away believing was the best prospect on the court. He came off the bench for Perth in the Australian NBL this season, averaging 9.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks on 52 percent shooting while taking two 3s in 17 minutes per night. But don’t think twice about those pedestrian numbers: The Wildcats finished second in the league, and Sarr plays behind All-NBL big man Keanu Pinder.
Sarr is a difference-maker on defense. He covers an immense amount of ground with his arms and quick feet, similar to bigs such as Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., Cleveland’s Evan Mobley and Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton. Sarr flies around rotating off the ball and can handle himself in a variety of ball-screen coverages, ranging from switching to drop. If he’s waiting at the rim and opponents dare challenge him, odds are he’ll get to the shot and contest it, if not outright block it.
The other end is the question. Sarr has shown potential as a rim runner in ball screens, but for the most part, his game involves pick-and-pops, and he doesn’t make great screen contact. He’s not a high-impact defensive rebounder, which has led to some questioning if he can consistently play the five in the NBA. If he indeed requires a more physical center alongside him, his limited offensive game may be exposed. He’s best served playing next to a floor-spacing five, or he’d need to become a dangerous perimeter shooter himself.
Sarr has shown flashes as a ballhandler and some touch as a shooter, so there’s enough upside in his package of skills to make him a legitimate difference-maker. It will just take him a lot of time to round out. He’s not as offensively polished as Mobley was entering the league in 2021.
Sarr’s range is across the top five right now, depending on how the lottery order falls.
3. Detroit Pistons
Matas Buzelis | 6-10 wing/forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Buzelis has been a beneficiary of multiple factors each occurring at once in this class. First, his size, off-ball capabilities and athleticism with the ball in transition make him a high-upside swing in a draft class doesn’t have many of them. Second, bigger wings with similar profiles like Charlotte’s Miller, Memphis’ G.G. Jackson, Washington’s Bilal Coulibaly and Houston’s Whitmore have put together promising rookie seasons while displaying skills they didn’t consistently showcase in their pre-draft seasons.
Those four are positive indicators because Buzelis has not had an ideal pre-draft campaign, especially early. He’s averaging 13.7 points while shooting 45.6 percent from the field in the G League, including a disappointing 26.9 percent mark from 3. However, over his last 11 games, he’s upped those numbers to 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, one steal and an awesome 2.5 blocks per game. He also won some plaudits from scouts for his play at the Rising Stars event at All-Star Weekend, where he helped the G League team upset a roster of NBA rookies and sophomores that included Wembanyama.
There are certainly questions even after his in-season improvement, and shooting is the one that comes up the most. Buzelis shot the ball well the season before at Sunrise Christian Academy in Kansas but hasn’t been consistent during his youth career. While Buzelis has been able to fit into an offensive role with G League Ignite instead of pressing the issue, scouts would like to learn more about his ability to create on his own. Additionally, while Buzelis’ off-ball defense has largely won over scouts, he has struggled on the ball this season in large part due to a lack of strength.
This is earlier than I would select Buzelis, but this mock draft also is based on feedback I get from scouts, and many are willing to give Buzelis the benefit of the doubt for the G League Ignite’s struggles. I think Buzelis’ range honestly starts at No. 1 if he has a strong pre-draft process and could extend down to No. 7 or below.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Reed Sheppard | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
A month ago, I said Sheppard and Kentucky teammate Rob Dillingham were the two most polarizing players in this draft class. That label remains accurate for Dillingham, but I don’t think that applies to Sheppard anymore, based on my conversations with NBA team personnel.
In his last 13 games, Sheppard is averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists (with a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), 2.7 steals and nearly one block per game while shooting a ridiculous 52.6 percent from the field, 50.0 percent from 3 and 86.4 percent from the free-throw line. By the way, that 50 percent mark from 3 over his last 13 games? It’s actually made his full-season percentage go down.
Questions certainly remain. Sheppard is listed at 6-foot-3, though scouts are skeptical he’s that tall. He lacks the length or athleticism typical of a top-10 pick. But the more Sheppard starred in SEC play, the more scouts emphasized what he can do as opposed to the traits he doesn’t have. It’s absurd to me that he only made second-team All-SEC; there’s a real case for him as one of the five best players in the entire country, and I’d consider him an All-American in some capacity. It’s almost impossible for a college player of any age to be this productive and efficient.
Offensively, Sheppard is potent leading the fast break or delivering hit-ahead passes to his teammates. When combined with his elite shooting, those attributes make Sheppard one of the best connective players in this class. On top of that, he’s showcasing more dexterity operating in ball screens and as a playmaker in recent weeks. His games against Mississippi State (32 points, seven assists and five rebounds on Feb. 27) and Tennessee (27 points, five rebounds and five assists on March 9) were eye-openers for NBA personnel.
Defensively, Sheppard makes plays, and his closeouts on shooters are textbook and disruptive. He has some off-ball lapses that can cause issues for Kentucky, and while he’s excellent at staying in front of guards on the ball, opponents can force mismatches that take advantage of his size deficiencies.
Should NBA personnel believe in Sheppard’s remarkable feel for the game and high skill level, or should they worry about his physical deficiencies? Given the recent success of other supposed “skill-first” guys who slipped in the draft (Jalen Brunson, Brandin Podziemski and Desmond Bane, to name a few), I continue to buy into Sheppard’s positives more than I fret about his negatives. I had Sheppard ranked at No. 6 on my big board back in early December and have maintained a high grade on him throughout the process.
It’s growing exceedingly likely Sheppard will be taken in the top eight if he was to enter the draft. If the right team ends up at No. 1, it’s even possible he at least gets a workout and meeting to prove his chops with that team. The Grizzlies, for example, they tend to love prospects with high feel for the game and skill levels that produce across the box score, even if they have physical limitations. If they draft Sheppard, they can then use Luke Kennard’s expiring salary as matching salary in a trade to fill their hole at center.
5. San Antonio Spurs
Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda
Topić has not played since early January due to a knee injury he suffered after leaving Mega Basket and returning to Crvena zvezda for the second half of its season. Topić did enough to rise up the scouting board before that injury, and league sources remain unconcerned about its long-term severity despite his extended absence.
In 13 games for Mega Basket, Topić averaged 18.6 points and 6.9 assists while shooting 52.4 percent from the field. He’s a dynamic ball-screen distributor and consistently lives in the paint in the Adriatic League, which consists of teams from the six countries that once made up Yugoslavia. He can execute nearly every pass in the book once he gets that downhill advantage and hits teammates with flair and creativity. Topić also scores proficiently at the rim, using inventive touch in finishing high off the glass and around rim protectors.
Scouts have consistently brought up two issues with Topić’s game. First, where is he as a shooter? He makes his free throws but is an inconsistent marksmen from 3-point range. If he can’t make enough jumpers to keep defenses honest, how will that affect the rest of his game? The second question is whether he can separate consistently from NBA defenders, who are quicker than the slower players who make up the Adriatic League. On the other hand, the NBA game is played in more space, so this could go either way.
Regardless, Topić has a good chance to be taken in the top six. The Spurs could use a lead guard to develop alongside Wembanyama, so they’re a good fit for him.
6. Charlotte Hornets
Stephon Castle | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Connecticut
I still have Castle in my top six, and I can’t figure out why the public seems hesitant to embrace his accomplishments this season. He has been outstanding since returning from an injury earlier this season. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Castle has averaged 12.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists over 18 games while shooting 47.9 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3. Since Jan. 28, his long-range accuracy has risen to 37.9 percent on 2.4 3s per game. He is a terrific connective tissue for the best team in the country and consistently impacts the game in multiple facets.
On top of that, Castle has played at a really high level on defense, taking on a variety of tough assignments ranging from point-of-attack matchups to difficult off-ball help responsibilities. He guarded Creighton All-American candidate Baylor Scheierman as well as anyone has all season, holding the Blue Jays’ star to just 24 points in 71 minutes on 7-of-18 shooting across two games. Castle’s versatility has been a huge part of Connecticut’s stingy defense.
Teams still question whether Castle can play point guard at the next level or if he’s more of a secondary ballhandler, which I think is more likely. Some evaluators also wonder if his jumper will translate to the NBA. But Sheppard is the only other freshman in the country consistently impacting games this positively on both ends of the court, and whereas Sheppard’s Wildcats are considered a vulnerable No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Castle’s Huskies are the clear No. 1 team. If Castle’s jumper sticks at the next level, there’s a case for him to go in the top three.
He makes a ton of sense for the Hornets between LaMelo Ball and Miller.
7. San Antonio Spurs (via Raptors)
Cody Williams | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Colorado
The brother of Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams, Cody Williams profiles as the kind of prized high-end prospect who can pressure the rim, pass, make plays and potentially defend multiple positions. At 6-8 with long arms, Williams has showcased the ability to play some point guard this season in addition to attacking in transition and slashing from the wing in a straight line. He’s averaging 13.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists while shooting 59 percent from the field for a Buffaloes team that earned one of the final at-large selections into the NCAA Tournament. He’s also made 45.7 percent of his 3s, though his lack of volume makes NBA teams concerned that his jumper won’t translate.
The bigger issues for scouts are about Williams’ self-creation upside. These days, NBA wings must be able to create and knock down pull-up jumpers. That’s not a part of Williams’ game at this stage, and it wasn’t in high school, either. If he can showcase any upside as a pull-up shooter, NBA teams would feel better about taking him in the top three. Even so, most evaluators have him in the top-six range at this point.
The Spurs, with a second lottery pick and the point guard spot filled, can afford to take a chance on developing Williams’ game.
8. Houston Rockets (via Nets)
Ron Holland | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite
Holland was the Ignite’s most productive player this season, averaging 19.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game while being one of the team’s few sources of offensive creation. However, most of those points came in transition or inefficiently in half-court settings. He had a below-average true shooting percentage and more turnovers than assists as he struggled with his decision-making. That’s somewhat to be expected from an 18-year-old playing professionally for the first time, but it also has left evaluators in a tricky spot as they try to determine where to slot him. He’ll miss the rest of the G League season with a thumb injury.
Holland’s motor is what excites NBA teams most. He constantly plays hard, getting the most out of his terrific athleticism by going 100 percent at every moment. His energy can sometimes bite him on defense when he gets overaggressive and overly physical. But amid the Ignite’s poor season, Holland has at least continued to improve, showcasing a capacity for growth that impressed evaluators.
It seems like Holland’s range is from picks No. 4 to No. 12 right now. Some evaluators who have gone back through his tape now that his season is over have come away a bit more understanding and impressed with his play this season. Pre-draft workouts will play a huge role in determining his draft position, especially if he shoots the ball well in front of NBA executives.
9. Utah Jazz
Rob Dillingham | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
This pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside of the top 10. The Jazz seem likely to keep it, as they have the NBA’s ninth-worst record and have fallen off a cliff since the NBA trade deadline.
Dillingham is a prospect with dizzying highs and significant question marks. Scouts love his elite speed with the ball in his hands, in addition to his touch. Dillingham, who is averaging 15 points and 3.8 assists per game this season while shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3, maintains his control at a high level despite playing at a fast pace. He uses a bevy of quick crossovers and maximizes his speed with well-timed hesitation moves to change pace.
He’s also listed at 6-3, and many scouts aren’t convinced he’ll even measure that big at the combine in May. That lack of size impacts him as a finisher at times and really causes issues on the other end. Dillingham may be the worst defender in the class, given his struggles getting over screens at the point of attack and issues dealing with any sort of mismatch. He also can get a bit distracted off the ball, with poorly timed digs and rotations.
Can Dillingham be a starting point guard, or is he more of a bench sparkplug? Is he a good enough distributor to be the former, or is he too much of a score-first guard? Can he hold up at all on defense to allow him to close key games? My best NBA comparison for Dillingham is Lou Williams, a three-time Sixth Man of the Year award winner who started just 11 percent of his 1,123 NBA games. Where would a team take Williams in this class? My best bet is in the back end of the lottery, but it seems Dillingham’s range extends from No. 5 to No. 15 or so. There are enormous fans of Dillingham out there who love his explosiveness and skill, and others who don’t love his game at all and worry about his capability to close games.
10. Atlanta Hawks
Tidjane Salaun | 6-9 wing/forward | 18 years old | Cholet
Salaun is another bigger wing/forward archetype of prospect with perimeter skill, and the Hawks need more of those attributes around Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Kobe Bufkin. At 6-9, Salaun has been productive this season in the French League and Basketball Champions League, averaging 9.3 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 35 percent from behind the 3-point line. He has a smooth stroke that should have no issues translating to NBA range, and he can attack the rim on cuts and straight-line drives.
I’m a bit lower than consensus on him, though, because I am worried about his overall feel for the game. I also view him as a more of a forward than a true wing athletically, which could hinder his positional flexibility. But he’s extremely young and has all the time in the world to gain a better understanding of the game. Many teams see him as a real option starting in the back half of the lottery.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Rockets)
Donovan Clingan | 7-2 center | 20 years old | Connecticut
Oklahoma City wants to be able to play with five shooters spaced along the 3-point line at all times. Typically, the biggest impediment to that goal is the difficulty of finding centers with legitimate size for the position who can also dribble, pass and shoot. The Thunder might end up having to settle for more of a complement to Chet Holmgren than a clear scheme fit.
Clingan would be that complement. He can run dribble-handoffs and really pass for a player his size. He’s excellent as a screener and can roll well to the rim. Scouts also will tell you his jumper looks clean in Connecticut practices, even if most are skeptical he’ll ever be an NBA-level 3-point shooter.
Clingan has had an up-and-down year after injuring his foot in the preseason and his ankle midway through the regular season. When he’s been on the court, he’s been one of the most dominant players in college basketball. He completely shuts down the paint when he’s in the game, using an enormous frame that takes up a significant portion of the paint. He moves well for his size and is elite in drop coverage defensively, stopping ballhandlers from turning the corner on him and getting to the rim. His ability to backpedal on-balance is very real. When not defending the ball, he makes his presence felt when necessary.
Evaluators aren’t sure how long Clingan can actually play within games. He was essentially a part-time player as a freshman on the way to Connecticut’s title run and has seen limited minutes this season due to his injuries. The good news: Clingan has averaged 25 minutes per game since Feb. 6 and been spectacular, notching 12.6 points, nine rebounds, two assists and three blocks per contest while locking down the restricted area. If Connecticut goes on an NCAA Tournament run, his draft position will rise.
12. Chicago Bulls
Dalton Knecht | 6-6 wing | 23 years old | Tennessee
It took a long time for people to recognize how much Knecht torched SEC play this season. He scored at a staggering pace, averaging 25.5 points in 18 SEC games while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from 3. For the season, he’s averaging 20.1 points per game on 48 percent from the field, but those stats are dragged down by a stretch where he played at less than 100 percent following an ankle injury suffered against North Carolina. If you remove those games, Knecht is averaging 25 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists. He was the clear SEC Player of the Year and will be an All-American at the end of the year.
Great college players aren’t always great NBA players, but the style of the 23-year-old Knecht’s game makes him a potential lottery pick. Everything he does offensively should translate to NBA settings. Not only is he is a terrific shooter proficient in spot-up situations and off movement, but he’s also a higher-end athlete than most floor spacers who can sky in transition and finish inside with hang time. He simply has a knack for scoring.
The issues come on defense, as Knecht is rough around the edges and consistently makes errors that lead to problems for Tennessee. But I tend to buy into late bloomers like him, especially those who can really shoot and possess legitimate NBA athleticism.
13. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers)
Isaiah Collier | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | USC
Collier has been one of the toughest evaluations this season. He started the season on fire and looked like a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. He tailed off as USC fell apart, struggling with turnovers and defense before hurting his wrist and missing time. Once he returned, he took the Pac-12 by storm. As USC closed the season as one of the better teams in the Pac-12, Collier averaged 18.7 points and 4.3 assists in his final seven games while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 35.7 from 3. He was the bruising, powerful, bowling-ball-esque driver we saw early on and throughout his high school career, living at the foul line by averaging seven free-throw attempts.
Collier is an impressive downhill athlete who lives in the paint and has the wherewithal to hit kickouts and dump-offs for assists. Despite his size and strength, he has not been an impactful defender in any way, struggling to stay in front of opposing guards and wings. Questions still exist about his feel for the game and shooting ability. And yet, it’s really hard to find players who live at the foul line and possess Collier’s sheer force and athleticism to impact games.
Collier is definitely polarizing, but I think his late-season push will slot him in the top 15 with ease, with a chance to rise to the middle of the lottery with strong workouts.
14. Portland Trail Blazers (via Warriors)
Ja’Kobe Walter | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Baylor
Walter has been up and down this season, averaging 14.7 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. Many of his struggles can be explained by his inconsistent shooting. Walter was a solid marksman in high school but has made just 33.9 percent of his 3s so far this season. In Big 12 play this year, Walter made just 40 percent of his 2-point shots and 29.1 percent of his 3-pointers. That’s rough. He hasn’t been quite as good on defense as anticipated, either.
If his shooting recovers, Walter makes for a good investment. He’s an athletic, 6-5 wing who can be run off movement into tough shots. He rarely makes mistakes, has strong feel for the game and plays well within a team concept on offense.
Scouts are split on Walter’s upside. Most don’t see him as a star, but they disagree on whether he’s an NBA starter long-term or merely a rotation player. Those who buy into his shooting and think he can improve his shaky defense could even see him landing in the top eight. I’m a bit lower on Walter right now and would have him further down my personal board. He has some real flaws to fix and doesn’t have the backing of elite size or explosiveness to fall back on. But team personnel tend to give me a range from No. 8 to No. 18 for him.
15. Miami Heat
Kyle Filipowski | 7-0 big | 20 years old| Duke
Filipowski has played like an All-American this season, averaging 16.7 points, eight rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting about 50 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3. He carries Duke through long stretches of games with his ability to catch the ball on the block and score, but pro scouts find his well-rounded perimeter game most appealing. Filipowski can shoot from the perimeter, attack heavy closeouts and bring the ball up the court in grab-and-go situations. His passing has taken a nice leap this season, and he’s more comfortable reading the court. I also think Filipowski’s defense is better than its reputation. The Blue Devils have a top-25 defense, and he usually positions himself well, contests enough shots and can slide his feet a couple of times on an island to stay with wings and even some guards.
Filipowski is a really interesting player for the Heat because he can play next to another big, as he did last season with Dereck Lively II, or operate as a center himself, as he has this season. With Bam Adebayo locked in place, Filipowski would make for an interesting frontcourt complement.
16. Philadelphia 76ers
Yves Missi | 7-0 big | 20 years old | Baylor
Missi seems like an odd pick when the 76ers having Joel Embiid, but I’m skeptical they end up keeping the pick given their star-hunting goals this summer.
Missi is a project, but one with elite tools that project exceedingly well toward an NBA role. As a legitimate 7-footer with a 7-5 wingspan, Missi might have the best frame of any low-usage center prospect in the class. He’s a terrific athlete who moves his feet fluidly in space given his size, and he possesses the hops to sky for impressive lob finishes, both in transition and from the dunker spot underneath the hoop. He blocks shots well and has potential to stick with guards for multiple slides on defense. He made the Big 12 All-Defense team as a freshman, while averaging 10.9 points per game on 62 percent from the field.
He profiles as a Clint Capela-style NBA big man who can guard a bit in space once he gets the nuances of ball-screen coverage down and protect the rim with his physical frame. He needs to put on a bit more weight in his lower half and get stronger through his base, as he too often gets moved on the block and can struggle on the defensive glass. But he has the look of a competent defensive starting center if he can reach his ceiling.
17. Toronto Raptors (via Pacers)
Bobi Klintman | 6-9 wing/forward | 20 years old | Cairns Taipans
It has been a season of ups and downs for Klintman in the NBL. Playing for Cairns as a member of the league’s Next Star development program, Klintman has put up some big games, especially in the first half of the season when Cairns was rolling. However, he missed sporadic time dealing with a few minor injuries over the back half of the season as Cairns fell out of contention.
Klintman is a 6-9 wing/forward who can knock down shots from the perimeter, having made 35.4 percent from 3 this season and 80 percent from the line. He’s excellent on the break, where he can handle and make nice passes. He’s still learning his own capabilities as he grows into his frame; his feel for the game is still developing after he picked up the sport late in his youth. In total, he averaged 9.7 points and 4.8 rebounds per game this year.
Most teams expect Klintman to hear his name called in the post-lottery range of the first round, even if his rawness and age make him a bit polarizing for evaluators league-wide. The conversations surrounding him are similar to those involving Rui Hachumira, the Gonzaga product who went No. 9 to the Washington Wizards in the 2019 draft.
18. Orlando Magic
Jared McCain | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Duke
McCain was seen as a potential one-and-done lottery prospect entering the season, but a slow start made evaluators pause as they waited to see exactly how he’d settle in. Over the last two-thirds of the season, McCain has been the best freshman scorer in high-major college basketball. Since Duke’s Dec. 9 game against Charlotte, McCain is averaging 15.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists over his last 23 games. He’s made 41.3 percent of his more than six 3-point attempts per game during that span and is consistently getting into the lane in transition or when driving closeouts. Scouts strongly believe McCain will end up as a high-level shooter even by NBA standards, often invoking Seth Curry’s name as a potential comparison.
The key for McCain will be showing he can impact games in other ways. He rebounds well for a small guard and generally makes good decisions, but there isn’t much margin for error for him considering he’s 6-3 and doesn’t possess a ton of length. The Magic could use another scoring guard who can fire from 3 and help space the floor for their playmaking forwards.
19. New York Knicks (via Mavericks)
Johnny Furphy | 6-9 wing | 19 years old | Kansas
Furphy is one of the tougher evaluations in this draft class. It looked like he’d turned a significant corner a few weeks ago. Playing for Bill Self, a coach who is generally averse to playing raw freshmen, Furphy averaged 13.6 points and 7.3 rebounds while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from 3 during a 12-game stretch from Jan. 16 through the end of February. But in his last four games, with Kansas struggling with injuries and defenses gearing up for March Madness, Furphy hasn’t reached double figures once and has been much less efficient.
What should NBA teams make of this drop? It’s a fair question. His 12-game sample of strong play before this downturn is his only strong stretch so far; he averaged just 5.7 points and 2.7 rebounds in his first 15 games while playing 14 minutes per night.
Furphy has a lot of the attributes NBA teams seek when trying to identify the right projects in which to invest. It’s hard to find players with this much size and athleticism who can play on the wing. He’s come a long way in just 18 months to even get to this point. He was always seen as an interesting upside swing due to his athleticism and shooting ability, but at the Center of Excellence in Australia, he didn’t seem to know how to impact the game when he played.
This is the spot where this draft class becomes exceedingly difficult to project. I can’t say for sure that Furphy will even be in the 2024 draft, as he could choose to return to Kansas. If he is, based on my read of NBA teams and the intel I’ve received, my bet is that someone in this range will want to invest developmental resources in Furphy. His range is wide, though, and would really depend on his performance in pre-draft workouts.
20. Atlanta Hawks (via Kings)
Tyler Smith | 6-11 big | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Smith is an upside swing for a team seeking a big with perimeter skills. He’s an unfinished player right now, but it’s hard to find big athletes who can shoot like him. At 6-11 with about a 7-1 wingspan, Smith is a fluid athlete who moves well in transition and off the ball on offense. He’s a strong backdoor cutter and has the leaping ability to be able to play out of the dunker spot. More than that, Smith has a beautiful jumper that should translate well to the NBA as he gets stronger and more consistent. He’s hit 35.4 percent from 3 on his way to 13.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. He and Holland have been arguably the two most consistent Ignite players this season.
On the other hand, Smith’s defense needs a lot of work, whether he’s defending fours or fives. He’s messy in help situations and needs to get much more comfortable executing within a team’s scheme. It’s hard to see him logging a lot of minutes early in his NBA career, but the former five-star prospect could become a difference-maker down the road if his team is patient.
21. New York Knicks
Zach Edey | 7-4 center | 22 years old | Purdue
Edey continues to be nothing short of the best player in college basketball, averaging 24.2 points, 11.7 rebounds and over two blocks per game on his way to back-to-back National Player of the Year awards. He establishes position anywhere and everywhere on the court because of his size and strength, yet he possesses remarkable touch around the rim. He’s somehow underrated in ball-screen actions. One could make the case that he’s the best screen-setter in the country with the way he consistently crushes guards trying to get through and rolls to the rim for deep post-ups or easy buckets.
I also think Edey has improved defensively over his time in college. He become a good, impactful drop-coverage pick-and-roll defender and takes up enough space to dissuade guard from driving and finishing around the basket.
The issue with his fit in the NBA are obvious: He’s a 7-4 supergiant who doesn’t move particularly well laterally. Can he stop ballhandlers from turning the corner on him? Can he get back in transition in the up-and-down NBA?
Still, I consistently am told Edey is likely be taken in the first round, outside of the lottery.
22. Phoenix Suns
Devin Carter | 6-3 guard | 22 years old | Providence
Carter is one of the best players in college basketball this season. The son of former NBA point guard Anthony Carter, Devin was terrific in 2022-23 after transferring from South Carolina but has leapt to another level this season. Carter has always been a terrific defensive player, rightfully nominated as a semifinalist for National Defensive Player of the Year. He is aggressive at the point of attack and has elite off-ball defensive instincts. His elite athleticism is basketball-functional and allows him to fly around the court.
His biggest jump this season has come on offense. After years of being a questionable shooter, Carter hit 38.5 percent of his nearly seven 3-point attempts per game this season. His shot is something of a moon ball that arcs high in the air before falling, but it goes in at a level that is hard to ignore.
His NBA role still projects to be a 3-and-D guard who can do a little bit more. Teams will want to get him into their building to see how his shot looks from the NBA line.
23. New Orleans Pelicans
Kyshawn George | 6-8 wing | 20 years old | Miami (Fla.)
Scouts are increasingly excited about the Swiss product due to his skill level mixed with his size. As a 6-8 wing, George is a late bloomer physically who averaged 10 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists versus only 1.9 turnovers per game from Dec. 21 onward. For the season, he drilled 3s at a 40.8 percent clip. George looks every bit the part of a big wing, with a smooth set shot that extends out to NBA distance and a capability to drive and kick when the opportunity arises.
George is also an awesome passer who makes early hit-aheads to find transition offense and is excellent at finding kickout passes when he gets into the paint. He just knows how to play and has the pedigree, as his father played college basketball at St. Francis (Pa.) in the 1990s.
Athleticism is the biggest question for George. He put on a substantial amount of weight after hitting a growth spurt over the last few years, and while he’s fluid, he currently has no burst. He’s still quite skinny, but can he put on more weight while adding enough explosiveness and power to play with more force? That’s an open question. Scouts are also not sure what role he played, if any, in Miami’s disastrous finish to the season.
George range is seen as somewhere in the back half of the first round now.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers
Bub Carrington | 6-5 guard | 18 years old | Pittsburgh
This is a bit earlier than I would take Carrington. He’s a significant project, with the upside being something of a combo guard who can play in ball screens, make high-level passing reads and score with volume when he gets going. But he was the talk of the scouting community after conference championship week, when he put together several monster games as Pittsburgh made an ultimately unsuccessful push toward the NCAA Tournament.
Carrington’s best games make him look like a future lottery pick, which could end up happening in 2025 if he decides to return to school. His worst games make him seem like a player who will be stuck in the G League for multiple years as he learns how to attack and make decisions. He was productive at Pittsburgh this season, averaging 13.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists, but he shot 41.2 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from 3. He missed a ton of his shots off the catch and was most impactful with the ball in his hands.
Any team that takes him will need to be patient and willing to go through some growing pains. I’m not convinced he stays in the 2024 class. But in light of his ACC tournament performance, NBA teams are excited to get him into their building and learn more about how he thinks the game and how much he can improve his jumper. His range is seen as something like No. 20 to No. 45 right now, and he has the perfect opportunity to test his stock.
25. Milwaukee Bucks
Ryan Dunn | 6-8 wing | 21 years old | Virginia
Dunn is all about defense. The Naismith committee not even having him as a semifinalist for National Defensive Player of the Year is the most egregious award decision in college basketball in the last five years or so — and there have been many contenders.
Dunn can do everything a team asks of him on defense and more. He can guard all five college positions and should be able to check one through four in the NBA. He is an elite defensive playmaker who averaged 1.3 steals and 2.4 blocks per game. He’s always available as a rim protector coming from the opposite side, and he can execute any ball-screen coverage.
The issue for Dunn is on offense. He plays hard, crashes the offensive glass and is a sharp cutter, but his jumper has been rough throughout his two years at Virginia. By the end of the regular season, Dunn stopped shooting 3s entirely and seemed to lose confidence in general. In his final 11 regular-season games, he scored just 51 points over 297 minutes played, shooting just 14 percent from 3 and a ghastly 31 percent on free throws.
Defensively, Dunn is as good as New Orleans Pelicans ace wing Herb Jones was when he entered the NBA in 2021, but he’s nowhere near as polished as Jones on offense. Teams are all over the map on him right now. I’ve heard projections ranging from right outside of the lottery to the end of the first round, depending on how workouts go.
26. Washington Wizards (via Clippers)
Jaylon Tyson | 6-7 wing | 21 years old | California
Tyson’s gone on a real journey to this point. After entering college as a top-40 player in his recruiting class, Tyson has gone from Texas to Texas Tech to Cal in three years. Now, finally, he is emerging as a real NBA prospect. At 6-7 with long arms, he has great measurements for the NBA. He’s not an explosive athlete, but he’s powerful and isn’t all that bothered by contact, allowing him to get the most out of his length and athleticism. He averaged 19.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 47 percent from the field and 35.8 percent from 3.
He’s another guy scouts are on the fence about. His decision-making can be frustrating, he often predetermines his reads and his shooting remains in question because he’s never really taken a high volume of 3s. Somewhere between picks No. 20 to No. 40 looks about right at this stage, although I think he could move up in the pre-draft process.
27. Minnesota Timberwolves
Hunter Sallis | 6-5 guard | 21 years old | Wake Forest
Sallis has been one of the biggest risers throughout the pre-draft cycle this season. The former Gonzaga guard averaged 18.3 points per game while shooting 49.9 percent from the field and 41.6 percent from 3 this season. The shooting from distance is the big leap. In his two seasons at Gonzaga, Sallis never hit over 27 percent from 3. Now, Sallis has confidence and is drilling his nearly six 3-point attempts per game at a high level. If he can keep that up — and his free-throw percentages have long indicated some shooting potential — he has a chance to be the kind of scoring combo guard who litters NBA benches league-wide. He’s athletic and shifty and can play on or off the ball consistently.
At this point in the draft, teams are just looking for a useful NBA rotation player. Sallis ticks a lot of boxes for the Timberwolves if his shooting is real, considering their need for scoring off the bench.
28. Utah Jazz (via Thunder)
Cam Christie | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Minnesota
Like Carrington, Christie is another great candidate to test the draft process and find out exactly where his stock lies. The brother of Lakers’ wing Max Christie, Cam’s style of play is similar, but he has showcased the capacity to do more with the ball in his hands than Max did at this stage.
Cam averaged 11.3 points and 2.2 assists this season versus only 1.2 turnovers. More importantly, he drilled 40.3 percent of his 3-pointers this season while taking more than five per game. Scouts are excited about his potential to be a 3-and-D player with even more ball skills than normal, though it will take Christie time to reach that level.
If Christie stays in this class, he will likely be someone who will need at least a year in the G League to get his body up to speed. But in a down draft year, scouts are enthusiastic about sorting through players like him to see if any could turn into something long-term. The Jazz are on a longer timeline and could afford to be patient.
29. Denver Nuggets
Tyler Kolek | 6-3 guard | 23 years old | Marquette
Before an oblique injury that held him out the Big East tournament, Kolek had gone nuclear. From Jan. 15 until Feb. 25, Marquette went 10-1 as Kolek averaged 16.9 points and 9.6 assists per game while shooting 48.6 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3. However, his injury could end up hindering him in the NCAA Tournament, if he plays as expected. Marquette desperately needs him to be healthy to make a deep run.
Kolek is a crafty guard. I’m not convinced he can even dunk, but he knows exactly how to play off two feet and is an elite distributor in ball screens. He’s made a big leap as a shooter this season, drilling more than 40 percent from 3 while looking much more confident pulling up when the opportunity arises. Kolek will need to prove he has the footspeed to hold up on defense in the NBA, and he’ll need to prove he can create separation with the ball in his hands against better defenders. But any team looking for a backup point guard could plug Kolek in early. Indiana’s T.J. McConnell is a name that often comes up as a comparison.
30. Boston Celtics
Justin Edwards | 6-8 wing | 20 years old | Kentucky
Welcome back to the party! Over his last 10 games, Edwards, a five-star recruit initially considered a potential top-five pick before a difficult start to the season, is averaging 11.3 points and three rebounds per game while shooting 61.5 percent from the field and 55 percent from 3. He and the Wildcats battled through his early struggles and seem to have come out on the other side with a productive player who has contributed to important wins recently. Whereas he was a mess on defense early in the season as he struggled to get Kentucky’s rotations down, he’s been more consistently in the right places of late. Instead of trying to do too much with the ball, as was the case most of the campaign, he’s now happy to play within the flow of the offense as a floor-spacer who attacks closeouts occasionally and cuts.
NBA scouts latched onto Edwards initially because they love big wings who can knock down shots and play with the ball a bit. Now, he’s finally starting to fit that criteria more and more. The high lottery is out of the question, but don’t be stunned if Edwards is able to at least secure a first-round slot after his horrible start. He deserves credit for fighting through the adversity, as does Wildcats coach John Calipari for sticking with him.
Second Round
31. Utah Jazz (via Wizards): DaRon Holmes | 6-10 big | 21 years old | Dayton
32. Toronto Raptors (via Pistons): Trey Alexander | 6-4 guard | 21 years old | Creighton
33. San Antonio Spurs: Kel’el Ware | 7-0 big | Indiana
34. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hornets): Oso Ighodaro | 6-11 big | Marquette
35. Milwaukee Bucks (via Trail Blazers): Tristan da Silva | 6-9 forward | Colorado
36. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Grizzlies): Kevin McCullar | 6-7 wing | Kansas
37. Philadelphia 76ers (via Raptors): Baylor Scheierman | 6-7 wing | Creighton
38. Memphis Grizzlies (via Nets): Melvin Ajinca | 6-7 wing | Saint-Quentin
39. New York Knicks (via Jazz): Alex Karaban | 6-8 wing | Connecticut
40. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hawks): A.J. Johnson | 6-5 guard | Illawarra
41. Charlotte Hornets (via Rockets): Ulrich Chomche | 6-11 big | NBA Africa Academy
42. Boston Celtics (via Bulls): Ajay Mitchell | 6-5 guard | UC Santa Barbara
43. Houston Rockets (via Warriors): Izan Almansa | 6-10 big | G League Ignite
44. San Antonio Spurs (via Lakers): Payton Sandfort | 6-7 wing | Iowa
45. Miami Heat: P.J. Hall | 6-10 big | Clemson
46. LA Clippers (via Pacers): Adem Bona | 6-10 big | UCLA
47. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks): Pelle Larsson | 6-6 wing | Arizona
48. Orlando Magic: Antonio Reeves | 6-4 wing | Kentucky
49. Sacramento Kings: Trevon Brazile | 6-10 big | Arkansas
50. Washington Wizards (via Suns): K.J. Simpson | 6-2 guard | Colorado
51. Detroit Pistons (via Knicks): Pacome Dadiet | 6-7 wing | Ratiopharm Ulm
52. Indiana Pacers (via Pelicans): Cam Spencer | 6-4 guard | Connecticut
53. Indiana Pacers (via Cavaliers): Juan Nunez | 6-3 guard | Ratiopharm Ulm
54. Indiana Pacers (via Bucks): Ariel Hukporti | 7-0 big | Melbourne United
55. Los Angeles Lakers (via Clippers): Johni Broome | 6-10 big | Auburn
56. Denver Nuggets (via Timberwolves): Jamal Shead | 6-2 guard | Houston
57. Memphis Grizzlies (via Thunder): Dillon Jones | 6-6 wing | Weber State
58. Charlotte Hornets (via Celtics): Malique Lewis | 6-8 wing | Mexico City Capitanes
1. Portland Trail Blazers
Zaccharie Risacher | 6-8 wing/forward | 19 years old | JL Bourg
Risacher remains at No. 1 for now. It very well may not end this way, and draft workouts will play a critical role in the process. The NBA is constantly looking for big wing/forward types who can knock down shots, defend at a reasonable level and play with the ball in their hands. That makes Risacher the favorite right now to go No. 1; more teams will view his game as one that can fit into a valuable, flexible role for their teams. The race is WIDE open at No. 1, but handicapping it now, I think Risacher would be the pick for more teams than any other prospect.
The French wing has produced at a high level in EuroCup competition. Through March 13, in total EuroCup and French League games, he’s averaging 11.4 points while shooting 49.4 percent from the field, 44.7 percent from 3 and 69.4 percent from the free-throw line. He’s rebounding at a reasonable rate for a wing and has shown some passing and decision-making chops. His jumper looks ready for the NBA, with great touch off the catch and when Bourg runs him off movement actions. He cuts well to the rim and creates buckets in transition. On defense, Risacher is sharp as a help defender and cuts off angles with his length, especially when operating as the low man in ball-screen coverages. On the ball, he’s defended guards at times with mixed results, to the point where I think he’s best served against the two through four positions.
The worry: Risacher is not a good shot creator at this point. The difference between him and someone like current Charlotte Hornets rookie Brandon Miller is the latter knew how to play with more poise to create his own shots in pick-and-roll situations, particularly from the midrange area. Risacher doesn’t have those skills yet. He also doesn’t yet have the explosive first step to beat anyone or enough flexibility to shake opponents off the dribble. Still, he doesn’t turn 19 until April, so there’s a ton of room between where he is now and what he will be at his peak.
2. Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr | 7-1 big | 19 years old | Perth Wildcats
Sarr emerged early in this draft cycle as a legitimate potential No. 1 pick, starting with his performance against the G League Ignite in Las Vegas in early September, when scouts came away believing was the best prospect on the court. He came off the bench for Perth in the Australian NBL this season, averaging 9.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks on 52 percent shooting while taking two 3s in 17 minutes per night. But don’t think twice about those pedestrian numbers: The Wildcats finished second in the league, and Sarr plays behind All-NBL big man Keanu Pinder.
Sarr is a difference-maker on defense. He covers an immense amount of ground with his arms and quick feet, similar to bigs such as Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., Cleveland’s Evan Mobley and Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton. Sarr flies around rotating off the ball and can handle himself in a variety of ball-screen coverages, ranging from switching to drop. If he’s waiting at the rim and opponents dare challenge him, odds are he’ll get to the shot and contest it, if not outright block it.
The other end is the question. Sarr has shown potential as a rim runner in ball screens, but for the most part, his game involves pick-and-pops, and he doesn’t make great screen contact. He’s not a high-impact defensive rebounder, which has led to some questioning if he can consistently play the five in the NBA. If he indeed requires a more physical center alongside him, his limited offensive game may be exposed. He’s best served playing next to a floor-spacing five, or he’d need to become a dangerous perimeter shooter himself.
Sarr has shown flashes as a ballhandler and some touch as a shooter, so there’s enough upside in his package of skills to make him a legitimate difference-maker. It will just take him a lot of time to round out. He’s not as offensively polished as Mobley was entering the league in 2021.
Sarr’s range is across the top five right now, depending on how the lottery order falls.
3. Detroit Pistons
Matas Buzelis | 6-10 wing/forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Buzelis has been a beneficiary of multiple factors each occurring at once in this class. First, his size, off-ball capabilities and athleticism with the ball in transition make him a high-upside swing in a draft class doesn’t have many of them. Second, bigger wings with similar profiles like Charlotte’s Miller, Memphis’ G.G. Jackson, Washington’s Bilal Coulibaly and Houston’s Whitmore have put together promising rookie seasons while displaying skills they didn’t consistently showcase in their pre-draft seasons.
Those four are positive indicators because Buzelis has not had an ideal pre-draft campaign, especially early. He’s averaging 13.7 points while shooting 45.6 percent from the field in the G League, including a disappointing 26.9 percent mark from 3. However, over his last 11 games, he’s upped those numbers to 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, one steal and an awesome 2.5 blocks per game. He also won some plaudits from scouts for his play at the Rising Stars event at All-Star Weekend, where he helped the G League team upset a roster of NBA rookies and sophomores that included Wembanyama.
There are certainly questions even after his in-season improvement, and shooting is the one that comes up the most. Buzelis shot the ball well the season before at Sunrise Christian Academy in Kansas but hasn’t been consistent during his youth career. While Buzelis has been able to fit into an offensive role with G League Ignite instead of pressing the issue, scouts would like to learn more about his ability to create on his own. Additionally, while Buzelis’ off-ball defense has largely won over scouts, he has struggled on the ball this season in large part due to a lack of strength.
This is earlier than I would select Buzelis, but this mock draft also is based on feedback I get from scouts, and many are willing to give Buzelis the benefit of the doubt for the G League Ignite’s struggles. I think Buzelis’ range honestly starts at No. 1 if he has a strong pre-draft process and could extend down to No. 7 or below.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Reed Sheppard | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
A month ago, I said Sheppard and Kentucky teammate Rob Dillingham were the two most polarizing players in this draft class. That label remains accurate for Dillingham, but I don’t think that applies to Sheppard anymore, based on my conversations with NBA team personnel.
In his last 13 games, Sheppard is averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists (with a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), 2.7 steals and nearly one block per game while shooting a ridiculous 52.6 percent from the field, 50.0 percent from 3 and 86.4 percent from the free-throw line. By the way, that 50 percent mark from 3 over his last 13 games? It’s actually made his full-season percentage go down.
Questions certainly remain. Sheppard is listed at 6-foot-3, though scouts are skeptical he’s that tall. He lacks the length or athleticism typical of a top-10 pick. But the more Sheppard starred in SEC play, the more scouts emphasized what he can do as opposed to the traits he doesn’t have. It’s absurd to me that he only made second-team All-SEC; there’s a real case for him as one of the five best players in the entire country, and I’d consider him an All-American in some capacity. It’s almost impossible for a college player of any age to be this productive and efficient.
Offensively, Sheppard is potent leading the fast break or delivering hit-ahead passes to his teammates. When combined with his elite shooting, those attributes make Sheppard one of the best connective players in this class. On top of that, he’s showcasing more dexterity operating in ball screens and as a playmaker in recent weeks. His games against Mississippi State (32 points, seven assists and five rebounds on Feb. 27) and Tennessee (27 points, five rebounds and five assists on March 9) were eye-openers for NBA personnel.
Defensively, Sheppard makes plays, and his closeouts on shooters are textbook and disruptive. He has some off-ball lapses that can cause issues for Kentucky, and while he’s excellent at staying in front of guards on the ball, opponents can force mismatches that take advantage of his size deficiencies.
Should NBA personnel believe in Sheppard’s remarkable feel for the game and high skill level, or should they worry about his physical deficiencies? Given the recent success of other supposed “skill-first” guys who slipped in the draft (Jalen Brunson, Brandin Podziemski and Desmond Bane, to name a few), I continue to buy into Sheppard’s positives more than I fret about his negatives. I had Sheppard ranked at No. 6 on my big board back in early December and have maintained a high grade on him throughout the process.
It’s growing exceedingly likely Sheppard will be taken in the top eight if he was to enter the draft. If the right team ends up at No. 1, it’s even possible he at least gets a workout and meeting to prove his chops with that team. The Grizzlies, for example, they tend to love prospects with high feel for the game and skill levels that produce across the box score, even if they have physical limitations. If they draft Sheppard, they can then use Luke Kennard’s expiring salary as matching salary in a trade to fill their hole at center.
5. San Antonio Spurs
Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda
Topić has not played since early January due to a knee injury he suffered after leaving Mega Basket and returning to Crvena zvezda for the second half of its season. Topić did enough to rise up the scouting board before that injury, and league sources remain unconcerned about its long-term severity despite his extended absence.
In 13 games for Mega Basket, Topić averaged 18.6 points and 6.9 assists while shooting 52.4 percent from the field. He’s a dynamic ball-screen distributor and consistently lives in the paint in the Adriatic League, which consists of teams from the six countries that once made up Yugoslavia. He can execute nearly every pass in the book once he gets that downhill advantage and hits teammates with flair and creativity. Topić also scores proficiently at the rim, using inventive touch in finishing high off the glass and around rim protectors.
Scouts have consistently brought up two issues with Topić’s game. First, where is he as a shooter? He makes his free throws but is an inconsistent marksmen from 3-point range. If he can’t make enough jumpers to keep defenses honest, how will that affect the rest of his game? The second question is whether he can separate consistently from NBA defenders, who are quicker than the slower players who make up the Adriatic League. On the other hand, the NBA game is played in more space, so this could go either way.
Regardless, Topić has a good chance to be taken in the top six. The Spurs could use a lead guard to develop alongside Wembanyama, so they’re a good fit for him.
6. Charlotte Hornets
Stephon Castle | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Connecticut
I still have Castle in my top six, and I can’t figure out why the public seems hesitant to embrace his accomplishments this season. He has been outstanding since returning from an injury earlier this season. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Castle has averaged 12.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists over 18 games while shooting 47.9 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3. Since Jan. 28, his long-range accuracy has risen to 37.9 percent on 2.4 3s per game. He is a terrific connective tissue for the best team in the country and consistently impacts the game in multiple facets.
On top of that, Castle has played at a really high level on defense, taking on a variety of tough assignments ranging from point-of-attack matchups to difficult off-ball help responsibilities. He guarded Creighton All-American candidate Baylor Scheierman as well as anyone has all season, holding the Blue Jays’ star to just 24 points in 71 minutes on 7-of-18 shooting across two games. Castle’s versatility has been a huge part of Connecticut’s stingy defense.
Teams still question whether Castle can play point guard at the next level or if he’s more of a secondary ballhandler, which I think is more likely. Some evaluators also wonder if his jumper will translate to the NBA. But Sheppard is the only other freshman in the country consistently impacting games this positively on both ends of the court, and whereas Sheppard’s Wildcats are considered a vulnerable No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Castle’s Huskies are the clear No. 1 team. If Castle’s jumper sticks at the next level, there’s a case for him to go in the top three.
He makes a ton of sense for the Hornets between LaMelo Ball and Miller.
7. San Antonio Spurs (via Raptors)
Cody Williams | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Colorado
The brother of Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams, Cody Williams profiles as the kind of prized high-end prospect who can pressure the rim, pass, make plays and potentially defend multiple positions. At 6-8 with long arms, Williams has showcased the ability to play some point guard this season in addition to attacking in transition and slashing from the wing in a straight line. He’s averaging 13.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists while shooting 59 percent from the field for a Buffaloes team that earned one of the final at-large selections into the NCAA Tournament. He’s also made 45.7 percent of his 3s, though his lack of volume makes NBA teams concerned that his jumper won’t translate.
The bigger issues for scouts are about Williams’ self-creation upside. These days, NBA wings must be able to create and knock down pull-up jumpers. That’s not a part of Williams’ game at this stage, and it wasn’t in high school, either. If he can showcase any upside as a pull-up shooter, NBA teams would feel better about taking him in the top three. Even so, most evaluators have him in the top-six range at this point.
The Spurs, with a second lottery pick and the point guard spot filled, can afford to take a chance on developing Williams’ game.
8. Houston Rockets (via Nets)
Ron Holland | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite
Holland was the Ignite’s most productive player this season, averaging 19.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game while being one of the team’s few sources of offensive creation. However, most of those points came in transition or inefficiently in half-court settings. He had a below-average true shooting percentage and more turnovers than assists as he struggled with his decision-making. That’s somewhat to be expected from an 18-year-old playing professionally for the first time, but it also has left evaluators in a tricky spot as they try to determine where to slot him. He’ll miss the rest of the G League season with a thumb injury.
Holland’s motor is what excites NBA teams most. He constantly plays hard, getting the most out of his terrific athleticism by going 100 percent at every moment. His energy can sometimes bite him on defense when he gets overaggressive and overly physical. But amid the Ignite’s poor season, Holland has at least continued to improve, showcasing a capacity for growth that impressed evaluators.
It seems like Holland’s range is from picks No. 4 to No. 12 right now. Some evaluators who have gone back through his tape now that his season is over have come away a bit more understanding and impressed with his play this season. Pre-draft workouts will play a huge role in determining his draft position, especially if he shoots the ball well in front of NBA executives.
9. Utah Jazz
Rob Dillingham | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
This pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside of the top 10. The Jazz seem likely to keep it, as they have the NBA’s ninth-worst record and have fallen off a cliff since the NBA trade deadline.
Dillingham is a prospect with dizzying highs and significant question marks. Scouts love his elite speed with the ball in his hands, in addition to his touch. Dillingham, who is averaging 15 points and 3.8 assists per game this season while shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3, maintains his control at a high level despite playing at a fast pace. He uses a bevy of quick crossovers and maximizes his speed with well-timed hesitation moves to change pace.
He’s also listed at 6-3, and many scouts aren’t convinced he’ll even measure that big at the combine in May. That lack of size impacts him as a finisher at times and really causes issues on the other end. Dillingham may be the worst defender in the class, given his struggles getting over screens at the point of attack and issues dealing with any sort of mismatch. He also can get a bit distracted off the ball, with poorly timed digs and rotations.
Can Dillingham be a starting point guard, or is he more of a bench sparkplug? Is he a good enough distributor to be the former, or is he too much of a score-first guard? Can he hold up at all on defense to allow him to close key games? My best NBA comparison for Dillingham is Lou Williams, a three-time Sixth Man of the Year award winner who started just 11 percent of his 1,123 NBA games. Where would a team take Williams in this class? My best bet is in the back end of the lottery, but it seems Dillingham’s range extends from No. 5 to No. 15 or so. There are enormous fans of Dillingham out there who love his explosiveness and skill, and others who don’t love his game at all and worry about his capability to close games.
10. Atlanta Hawks
Tidjane Salaun | 6-9 wing/forward | 18 years old | Cholet
Salaun is another bigger wing/forward archetype of prospect with perimeter skill, and the Hawks need more of those attributes around Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Kobe Bufkin. At 6-9, Salaun has been productive this season in the French League and Basketball Champions League, averaging 9.3 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 35 percent from behind the 3-point line. He has a smooth stroke that should have no issues translating to NBA range, and he can attack the rim on cuts and straight-line drives.
I’m a bit lower than consensus on him, though, because I am worried about his overall feel for the game. I also view him as a more of a forward than a true wing athletically, which could hinder his positional flexibility. But he’s extremely young and has all the time in the world to gain a better understanding of the game. Many teams see him as a real option starting in the back half of the lottery.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Rockets)
Donovan Clingan | 7-2 center | 20 years old | Connecticut
Oklahoma City wants to be able to play with five shooters spaced along the 3-point line at all times. Typically, the biggest impediment to that goal is the difficulty of finding centers with legitimate size for the position who can also dribble, pass and shoot. The Thunder might end up having to settle for more of a complement to Chet Holmgren than a clear scheme fit.
Clingan would be that complement. He can run dribble-handoffs and really pass for a player his size. He’s excellent as a screener and can roll well to the rim. Scouts also will tell you his jumper looks clean in Connecticut practices, even if most are skeptical he’ll ever be an NBA-level 3-point shooter.
Clingan has had an up-and-down year after injuring his foot in the preseason and his ankle midway through the regular season. When he’s been on the court, he’s been one of the most dominant players in college basketball. He completely shuts down the paint when he’s in the game, using an enormous frame that takes up a significant portion of the paint. He moves well for his size and is elite in drop coverage defensively, stopping ballhandlers from turning the corner on him and getting to the rim. His ability to backpedal on-balance is very real. When not defending the ball, he makes his presence felt when necessary.
Evaluators aren’t sure how long Clingan can actually play within games. He was essentially a part-time player as a freshman on the way to Connecticut’s title run and has seen limited minutes this season due to his injuries. The good news: Clingan has averaged 25 minutes per game since Feb. 6 and been spectacular, notching 12.6 points, nine rebounds, two assists and three blocks per contest while locking down the restricted area. If Connecticut goes on an NCAA Tournament run, his draft position will rise.
12. Chicago Bulls
Dalton Knecht | 6-6 wing | 23 years old | Tennessee
It took a long time for people to recognize how much Knecht torched SEC play this season. He scored at a staggering pace, averaging 25.5 points in 18 SEC games while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from 3. For the season, he’s averaging 20.1 points per game on 48 percent from the field, but those stats are dragged down by a stretch where he played at less than 100 percent following an ankle injury suffered against North Carolina. If you remove those games, Knecht is averaging 25 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists. He was the clear SEC Player of the Year and will be an All-American at the end of the year.
Great college players aren’t always great NBA players, but the style of the 23-year-old Knecht’s game makes him a potential lottery pick. Everything he does offensively should translate to NBA settings. Not only is he is a terrific shooter proficient in spot-up situations and off movement, but he’s also a higher-end athlete than most floor spacers who can sky in transition and finish inside with hang time. He simply has a knack for scoring.
The issues come on defense, as Knecht is rough around the edges and consistently makes errors that lead to problems for Tennessee. But I tend to buy into late bloomers like him, especially those who can really shoot and possess legitimate NBA athleticism.
13. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers)
Isaiah Collier | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | USC
Collier has been one of the toughest evaluations this season. He started the season on fire and looked like a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. He tailed off as USC fell apart, struggling with turnovers and defense before hurting his wrist and missing time. Once he returned, he took the Pac-12 by storm. As USC closed the season as one of the better teams in the Pac-12, Collier averaged 18.7 points and 4.3 assists in his final seven games while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 35.7 from 3. He was the bruising, powerful, bowling-ball-esque driver we saw early on and throughout his high school career, living at the foul line by averaging seven free-throw attempts.
Collier is an impressive downhill athlete who lives in the paint and has the wherewithal to hit kickouts and dump-offs for assists. Despite his size and strength, he has not been an impactful defender in any way, struggling to stay in front of opposing guards and wings. Questions still exist about his feel for the game and shooting ability. And yet, it’s really hard to find players who live at the foul line and possess Collier’s sheer force and athleticism to impact games.
Collier is definitely polarizing, but I think his late-season push will slot him in the top 15 with ease, with a chance to rise to the middle of the lottery with strong workouts.
14. Portland Trail Blazers (via Warriors)
Ja’Kobe Walter | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Baylor
Walter has been up and down this season, averaging 14.7 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. Many of his struggles can be explained by his inconsistent shooting. Walter was a solid marksman in high school but has made just 33.9 percent of his 3s so far this season. In Big 12 play this year, Walter made just 40 percent of his 2-point shots and 29.1 percent of his 3-pointers. That’s rough. He hasn’t been quite as good on defense as anticipated, either.
If his shooting recovers, Walter makes for a good investment. He’s an athletic, 6-5 wing who can be run off movement into tough shots. He rarely makes mistakes, has strong feel for the game and plays well within a team concept on offense.
Scouts are split on Walter’s upside. Most don’t see him as a star, but they disagree on whether he’s an NBA starter long-term or merely a rotation player. Those who buy into his shooting and think he can improve his shaky defense could even see him landing in the top eight. I’m a bit lower on Walter right now and would have him further down my personal board. He has some real flaws to fix and doesn’t have the backing of elite size or explosiveness to fall back on. But team personnel tend to give me a range from No. 8 to No. 18 for him.
15. Miami Heat
Kyle Filipowski | 7-0 big | 20 years old| Duke
Filipowski has played like an All-American this season, averaging 16.7 points, eight rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting about 50 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3. He carries Duke through long stretches of games with his ability to catch the ball on the block and score, but pro scouts find his well-rounded perimeter game most appealing. Filipowski can shoot from the perimeter, attack heavy closeouts and bring the ball up the court in grab-and-go situations. His passing has taken a nice leap this season, and he’s more comfortable reading the court. I also think Filipowski’s defense is better than its reputation. The Blue Devils have a top-25 defense, and he usually positions himself well, contests enough shots and can slide his feet a couple of times on an island to stay with wings and even some guards.
Filipowski is a really interesting player for the Heat because he can play next to another big, as he did last season with Dereck Lively II, or operate as a center himself, as he has this season. With Bam Adebayo locked in place, Filipowski would make for an interesting frontcourt complement.
16. Philadelphia 76ers
Yves Missi | 7-0 big | 20 years old | Baylor
Missi seems like an odd pick when the 76ers having Joel Embiid, but I’m skeptical they end up keeping the pick given their star-hunting goals this summer.
Missi is a project, but one with elite tools that project exceedingly well toward an NBA role. As a legitimate 7-footer with a 7-5 wingspan, Missi might have the best frame of any low-usage center prospect in the class. He’s a terrific athlete who moves his feet fluidly in space given his size, and he possesses the hops to sky for impressive lob finishes, both in transition and from the dunker spot underneath the hoop. He blocks shots well and has potential to stick with guards for multiple slides on defense. He made the Big 12 All-Defense team as a freshman, while averaging 10.9 points per game on 62 percent from the field.
He profiles as a Clint Capela-style NBA big man who can guard a bit in space once he gets the nuances of ball-screen coverage down and protect the rim with his physical frame. He needs to put on a bit more weight in his lower half and get stronger through his base, as he too often gets moved on the block and can struggle on the defensive glass. But he has the look of a competent defensive starting center if he can reach his ceiling.
17. Toronto Raptors (via Pacers)
Bobi Klintman | 6-9 wing/forward | 20 years old | Cairns Taipans
It has been a season of ups and downs for Klintman in the NBL. Playing for Cairns as a member of the league’s Next Star development program, Klintman has put up some big games, especially in the first half of the season when Cairns was rolling. However, he missed sporadic time dealing with a few minor injuries over the back half of the season as Cairns fell out of contention.
Klintman is a 6-9 wing/forward who can knock down shots from the perimeter, having made 35.4 percent from 3 this season and 80 percent from the line. He’s excellent on the break, where he can handle and make nice passes. He’s still learning his own capabilities as he grows into his frame; his feel for the game is still developing after he picked up the sport late in his youth. In total, he averaged 9.7 points and 4.8 rebounds per game this year.
Most teams expect Klintman to hear his name called in the post-lottery range of the first round, even if his rawness and age make him a bit polarizing for evaluators league-wide. The conversations surrounding him are similar to those involving Rui Hachumira, the Gonzaga product who went No. 9 to the Washington Wizards in the 2019 draft.
18. Orlando Magic
Jared McCain | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Duke
McCain was seen as a potential one-and-done lottery prospect entering the season, but a slow start made evaluators pause as they waited to see exactly how he’d settle in. Over the last two-thirds of the season, McCain has been the best freshman scorer in high-major college basketball. Since Duke’s Dec. 9 game against Charlotte, McCain is averaging 15.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists over his last 23 games. He’s made 41.3 percent of his more than six 3-point attempts per game during that span and is consistently getting into the lane in transition or when driving closeouts. Scouts strongly believe McCain will end up as a high-level shooter even by NBA standards, often invoking Seth Curry’s name as a potential comparison.
The key for McCain will be showing he can impact games in other ways. He rebounds well for a small guard and generally makes good decisions, but there isn’t much margin for error for him considering he’s 6-3 and doesn’t possess a ton of length. The Magic could use another scoring guard who can fire from 3 and help space the floor for their playmaking forwards.
19. New York Knicks (via Mavericks)
Johnny Furphy | 6-9 wing | 19 years old | Kansas
Furphy is one of the tougher evaluations in this draft class. It looked like he’d turned a significant corner a few weeks ago. Playing for Bill Self, a coach who is generally averse to playing raw freshmen, Furphy averaged 13.6 points and 7.3 rebounds while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from 3 during a 12-game stretch from Jan. 16 through the end of February. But in his last four games, with Kansas struggling with injuries and defenses gearing up for March Madness, Furphy hasn’t reached double figures once and has been much less efficient.
What should NBA teams make of this drop? It’s a fair question. His 12-game sample of strong play before this downturn is his only strong stretch so far; he averaged just 5.7 points and 2.7 rebounds in his first 15 games while playing 14 minutes per night.
Furphy has a lot of the attributes NBA teams seek when trying to identify the right projects in which to invest. It’s hard to find players with this much size and athleticism who can play on the wing. He’s come a long way in just 18 months to even get to this point. He was always seen as an interesting upside swing due to his athleticism and shooting ability, but at the Center of Excellence in Australia, he didn’t seem to know how to impact the game when he played.
This is the spot where this draft class becomes exceedingly difficult to project. I can’t say for sure that Furphy will even be in the 2024 draft, as he could choose to return to Kansas. If he is, based on my read of NBA teams and the intel I’ve received, my bet is that someone in this range will want to invest developmental resources in Furphy. His range is wide, though, and would really depend on his performance in pre-draft workouts.
20. Atlanta Hawks (via Kings)
Tyler Smith | 6-11 big | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Smith is an upside swing for a team seeking a big with perimeter skills. He’s an unfinished player right now, but it’s hard to find big athletes who can shoot like him. At 6-11 with about a 7-1 wingspan, Smith is a fluid athlete who moves well in transition and off the ball on offense. He’s a strong backdoor cutter and has the leaping ability to be able to play out of the dunker spot. More than that, Smith has a beautiful jumper that should translate well to the NBA as he gets stronger and more consistent. He’s hit 35.4 percent from 3 on his way to 13.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. He and Holland have been arguably the two most consistent Ignite players this season.
On the other hand, Smith’s defense needs a lot of work, whether he’s defending fours or fives. He’s messy in help situations and needs to get much more comfortable executing within a team’s scheme. It’s hard to see him logging a lot of minutes early in his NBA career, but the former five-star prospect could become a difference-maker down the road if his team is patient.
21. New York Knicks
Zach Edey | 7-4 center | 22 years old | Purdue
Edey continues to be nothing short of the best player in college basketball, averaging 24.2 points, 11.7 rebounds and over two blocks per game on his way to back-to-back National Player of the Year awards. He establishes position anywhere and everywhere on the court because of his size and strength, yet he possesses remarkable touch around the rim. He’s somehow underrated in ball-screen actions. One could make the case that he’s the best screen-setter in the country with the way he consistently crushes guards trying to get through and rolls to the rim for deep post-ups or easy buckets.
I also think Edey has improved defensively over his time in college. He become a good, impactful drop-coverage pick-and-roll defender and takes up enough space to dissuade guard from driving and finishing around the basket.
The issue with his fit in the NBA are obvious: He’s a 7-4 supergiant who doesn’t move particularly well laterally. Can he stop ballhandlers from turning the corner on him? Can he get back in transition in the up-and-down NBA?
Still, I consistently am told Edey is likely be taken in the first round, outside of the lottery.
22. Phoenix Suns
Devin Carter | 6-3 guard | 22 years old | Providence
Carter is one of the best players in college basketball this season. The son of former NBA point guard Anthony Carter, Devin was terrific in 2022-23 after transferring from South Carolina but has leapt to another level this season. Carter has always been a terrific defensive player, rightfully nominated as a semifinalist for National Defensive Player of the Year. He is aggressive at the point of attack and has elite off-ball defensive instincts. His elite athleticism is basketball-functional and allows him to fly around the court.
His biggest jump this season has come on offense. After years of being a questionable shooter, Carter hit 38.5 percent of his nearly seven 3-point attempts per game this season. His shot is something of a moon ball that arcs high in the air before falling, but it goes in at a level that is hard to ignore.
His NBA role still projects to be a 3-and-D guard who can do a little bit more. Teams will want to get him into their building to see how his shot looks from the NBA line.
23. New Orleans Pelicans
Kyshawn George | 6-8 wing | 20 years old | Miami (Fla.)
Scouts are increasingly excited about the Swiss product due to his skill level mixed with his size. As a 6-8 wing, George is a late bloomer physically who averaged 10 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists versus only 1.9 turnovers per game from Dec. 21 onward. For the season, he drilled 3s at a 40.8 percent clip. George looks every bit the part of a big wing, with a smooth set shot that extends out to NBA distance and a capability to drive and kick when the opportunity arises.
George is also an awesome passer who makes early hit-aheads to find transition offense and is excellent at finding kickout passes when he gets into the paint. He just knows how to play and has the pedigree, as his father played college basketball at St. Francis (Pa.) in the 1990s.
Athleticism is the biggest question for George. He put on a substantial amount of weight after hitting a growth spurt over the last few years, and while he’s fluid, he currently has no burst. He’s still quite skinny, but can he put on more weight while adding enough explosiveness and power to play with more force? That’s an open question. Scouts are also not sure what role he played, if any, in Miami’s disastrous finish to the season.
George range is seen as somewhere in the back half of the first round now.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers
Bub Carrington | 6-5 guard | 18 years old | Pittsburgh
This is a bit earlier than I would take Carrington. He’s a significant project, with the upside being something of a combo guard who can play in ball screens, make high-level passing reads and score with volume when he gets going. But he was the talk of the scouting community after conference championship week, when he put together several monster games as Pittsburgh made an ultimately unsuccessful push toward the NCAA Tournament.
Carrington’s best games make him look like a future lottery pick, which could end up happening in 2025 if he decides to return to school. His worst games make him seem like a player who will be stuck in the G League for multiple years as he learns how to attack and make decisions. He was productive at Pittsburgh this season, averaging 13.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists, but he shot 41.2 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from 3. He missed a ton of his shots off the catch and was most impactful with the ball in his hands.
Any team that takes him will need to be patient and willing to go through some growing pains. I’m not convinced he stays in the 2024 class. But in light of his ACC tournament performance, NBA teams are excited to get him into their building and learn more about how he thinks the game and how much he can improve his jumper. His range is seen as something like No. 20 to No. 45 right now, and he has the perfect opportunity to test his stock.
25. Milwaukee Bucks
Ryan Dunn | 6-8 wing | 21 years old | Virginia
Dunn is all about defense. The Naismith committee not even having him as a semifinalist for National Defensive Player of the Year is the most egregious award decision in college basketball in the last five years or so — and there have been many contenders.
Dunn can do everything a team asks of him on defense and more. He can guard all five college positions and should be able to check one through four in the NBA. He is an elite defensive playmaker who averaged 1.3 steals and 2.4 blocks per game. He’s always available as a rim protector coming from the opposite side, and he can execute any ball-screen coverage.
The issue for Dunn is on offense. He plays hard, crashes the offensive glass and is a sharp cutter, but his jumper has been rough throughout his two years at Virginia. By the end of the regular season, Dunn stopped shooting 3s entirely and seemed to lose confidence in general. In his final 11 regular-season games, he scored just 51 points over 297 minutes played, shooting just 14 percent from 3 and a ghastly 31 percent on free throws.
Defensively, Dunn is as good as New Orleans Pelicans ace wing Herb Jones was when he entered the NBA in 2021, but he’s nowhere near as polished as Jones on offense. Teams are all over the map on him right now. I’ve heard projections ranging from right outside of the lottery to the end of the first round, depending on how workouts go.
26. Washington Wizards (via Clippers)
Jaylon Tyson | 6-7 wing | 21 years old | California
Tyson’s gone on a real journey to this point. After entering college as a top-40 player in his recruiting class, Tyson has gone from Texas to Texas Tech to Cal in three years. Now, finally, he is emerging as a real NBA prospect. At 6-7 with long arms, he has great measurements for the NBA. He’s not an explosive athlete, but he’s powerful and isn’t all that bothered by contact, allowing him to get the most out of his length and athleticism. He averaged 19.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 47 percent from the field and 35.8 percent from 3.
He’s another guy scouts are on the fence about. His decision-making can be frustrating, he often predetermines his reads and his shooting remains in question because he’s never really taken a high volume of 3s. Somewhere between picks No. 20 to No. 40 looks about right at this stage, although I think he could move up in the pre-draft process.
27. Minnesota Timberwolves
Hunter Sallis | 6-5 guard | 21 years old | Wake Forest
Sallis has been one of the biggest risers throughout the pre-draft cycle this season. The former Gonzaga guard averaged 18.3 points per game while shooting 49.9 percent from the field and 41.6 percent from 3 this season. The shooting from distance is the big leap. In his two seasons at Gonzaga, Sallis never hit over 27 percent from 3. Now, Sallis has confidence and is drilling his nearly six 3-point attempts per game at a high level. If he can keep that up — and his free-throw percentages have long indicated some shooting potential — he has a chance to be the kind of scoring combo guard who litters NBA benches league-wide. He’s athletic and shifty and can play on or off the ball consistently.
At this point in the draft, teams are just looking for a useful NBA rotation player. Sallis ticks a lot of boxes for the Timberwolves if his shooting is real, considering their need for scoring off the bench.
28. Utah Jazz (via Thunder)
Cam Christie | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Minnesota
Like Carrington, Christie is another great candidate to test the draft process and find out exactly where his stock lies. The brother of Lakers’ wing Max Christie, Cam’s style of play is similar, but he has showcased the capacity to do more with the ball in his hands than Max did at this stage.
Cam averaged 11.3 points and 2.2 assists this season versus only 1.2 turnovers. More importantly, he drilled 40.3 percent of his 3-pointers this season while taking more than five per game. Scouts are excited about his potential to be a 3-and-D player with even more ball skills than normal, though it will take Christie time to reach that level.
If Christie stays in this class, he will likely be someone who will need at least a year in the G League to get his body up to speed. But in a down draft year, scouts are enthusiastic about sorting through players like him to see if any could turn into something long-term. The Jazz are on a longer timeline and could afford to be patient.
29. Denver Nuggets
Tyler Kolek | 6-3 guard | 23 years old | Marquette
Before an oblique injury that held him out the Big East tournament, Kolek had gone nuclear. From Jan. 15 until Feb. 25, Marquette went 10-1 as Kolek averaged 16.9 points and 9.6 assists per game while shooting 48.6 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3. However, his injury could end up hindering him in the NCAA Tournament, if he plays as expected. Marquette desperately needs him to be healthy to make a deep run.
Kolek is a crafty guard. I’m not convinced he can even dunk, but he knows exactly how to play off two feet and is an elite distributor in ball screens. He’s made a big leap as a shooter this season, drilling more than 40 percent from 3 while looking much more confident pulling up when the opportunity arises. Kolek will need to prove he has the footspeed to hold up on defense in the NBA, and he’ll need to prove he can create separation with the ball in his hands against better defenders. But any team looking for a backup point guard could plug Kolek in early. Indiana’s T.J. McConnell is a name that often comes up as a comparison.
30. Boston Celtics
Justin Edwards | 6-8 wing | 20 years old | Kentucky
Welcome back to the party! Over his last 10 games, Edwards, a five-star recruit initially considered a potential top-five pick before a difficult start to the season, is averaging 11.3 points and three rebounds per game while shooting 61.5 percent from the field and 55 percent from 3. He and the Wildcats battled through his early struggles and seem to have come out on the other side with a productive player who has contributed to important wins recently. Whereas he was a mess on defense early in the season as he struggled to get Kentucky’s rotations down, he’s been more consistently in the right places of late. Instead of trying to do too much with the ball, as was the case most of the campaign, he’s now happy to play within the flow of the offense as a floor-spacer who attacks closeouts occasionally and cuts.
NBA scouts latched onto Edwards initially because they love big wings who can knock down shots and play with the ball a bit. Now, he’s finally starting to fit that criteria more and more. The high lottery is out of the question, but don’t be stunned if Edwards is able to at least secure a first-round slot after his horrible start. He deserves credit for fighting through the adversity, as does Wildcats coach John Calipari for sticking with him.
Second Round
31. Utah Jazz (via Wizards): DaRon Holmes | 6-10 big | 21 years old | Dayton
32. Toronto Raptors (via Pistons): Trey Alexander | 6-4 guard | 21 years old | Creighton
33. San Antonio Spurs: Kel’el Ware | 7-0 big | Indiana
34. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hornets): Oso Ighodaro | 6-11 big | Marquette
35. Milwaukee Bucks (via Trail Blazers): Tristan da Silva | 6-9 forward | Colorado
36. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Grizzlies): Kevin McCullar | 6-7 wing | Kansas
37. Philadelphia 76ers (via Raptors): Baylor Scheierman | 6-7 wing | Creighton
38. Memphis Grizzlies (via Nets): Melvin Ajinca | 6-7 wing | Saint-Quentin
39. New York Knicks (via Jazz): Alex Karaban | 6-8 wing | Connecticut
40. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hawks): A.J. Johnson | 6-5 guard | Illawarra
41. Charlotte Hornets (via Rockets): Ulrich Chomche | 6-11 big | NBA Africa Academy
42. Boston Celtics (via Bulls): Ajay Mitchell | 6-5 guard | UC Santa Barbara
43. Houston Rockets (via Warriors): Izan Almansa | 6-10 big | G League Ignite
44. San Antonio Spurs (via Lakers): Payton Sandfort | 6-7 wing | Iowa
45. Miami Heat: P.J. Hall | 6-10 big | Clemson
46. LA Clippers (via Pacers): Adem Bona | 6-10 big | UCLA
47. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks): Pelle Larsson | 6-6 wing | Arizona
48. Orlando Magic: Antonio Reeves | 6-4 wing | Kentucky
49. Sacramento Kings: Trevon Brazile | 6-10 big | Arkansas
50. Washington Wizards (via Suns): K.J. Simpson | 6-2 guard | Colorado
51. Detroit Pistons (via Knicks): Pacome Dadiet | 6-7 wing | Ratiopharm Ulm
52. Indiana Pacers (via Pelicans): Cam Spencer | 6-4 guard | Connecticut
53. Indiana Pacers (via Cavaliers): Juan Nunez | 6-3 guard | Ratiopharm Ulm
54. Indiana Pacers (via Bucks): Ariel Hukporti | 7-0 big | Melbourne United
55. Los Angeles Lakers (via Clippers): Johni Broome | 6-10 big | Auburn
56. Denver Nuggets (via Timberwolves): Jamal Shead | 6-2 guard | Houston
57. Memphis Grizzlies (via Thunder): Dillon Jones | 6-6 wing | Weber State
58. Charlotte Hornets (via Celtics): Malique Lewis | 6-8 wing | Mexico City Capitanes
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jpzx
Supporter
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This seventh overall pick can't even get on the court against Boise State! What is this I'm watching
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- Nov 5, 2012
oof. he's taking a beating on Twitter. Seems like every time I try to watch him he's dealing with a different injury
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- 70,196
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- Mar 31, 2011
My wife just said Reed Sheppard “looks like the little guy from 13 Reasons Why”.
Now I think I gotta take him off my board
Now I think I gotta take him off my board
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- 85,873
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HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
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