Check out the stat line on these two players:
Player A: 27.4 PER; 26.7 pts, 18.8 reb, 2.9 ast, 3.3 st, 4.5 bk per 100; 30.8% on 3s
Player B: 23.3 PER; 28.4 pts, 19.4 reb, 1.7 ast, 2.0 st, 3.4 bk per 100; 32.5% on 3s
It’s close, but Player A’s line is superior. Player A also played a harder schedule — the nation’s 28th most difficult schedule, according to KenPom, while Player B played the 80th toughest schedule.
These two are similar beyond stats: Both are the same size, although Player B is a bit thicker in the shoulders and might be five pounds heavier, and they reported the same wingspan. They’re also the same age.
They play similarly too, profiling as almost exactly the same type of player — a highly switchable, multi-positional defensive weapon with offensive question marks centered on iffy shooting and a questionable handle and feel.
Believe it or not, Player B is seen as a lottery pick by many, while Player A is universally pegged as a late second-rounder.
This makes no sense.
If you haven’t figured it out by now, Player A is DePaul’s Paul Reed. And Player B? That is Memphis’s Precious Achiuwa.
I’m guessing that much of the perception difference between the two is that Achiuwa is a one-and-done and Reed is a junior. Reed, indeed, is older than Achiuwa … by three whole months. They both will be 21 on opening night. The biggest “difference” between the two is an insignificant one.
Meanwhile, let’s talk about defense, since that’s the main selling point of each. Achiuwa is indeed quite good at this end. But Reed is a freaking beast. I don’t think you need to devour tape 24/7 to conclude that Reed is a superior defender; though both players can harass guards effectively with their long arms and lateral quickness, Reed is the better of the two and his fast hands are a game-changer. The numbers back it up too: He had the highest steal rate of any significant draft prospect at any position, despite playing inside on a terrible team that rarely left him in position to succeed.
Reed, incidentally, had little to do with his team’s woes. As our Sam Vecenie recently noted, DePaul outscored opponents by 7 points per 100 possessions when he played … and got rocked by 22 per 100 when he sat.
To be clear: I like both of these guys. They are extremely similar and both should go in the first round. But to the extent you can divine any differences, all the advantages point to Reed. That makes it really odd that he appears about 40 spots lower on draft boards.
This is the biggest point of cognitive dissonance in the draft right now. Personally, I will have Reed a few spots higher than Achiuwa on my final board.
ballinsam23
too
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