NBA draft intel: Latest on top picks, trades and the lottery
What is looking likely to happen in the first round of the 2020 NBA draft (Nov. 18 on ESPN)?
The coronavirus pandemic has led to one of the strangest pre-draft processes in history, adding unknowns to a class already filled with questions. Picks throughout the lottery are available in trades -- though those transactions are still on hold due to a league-wide moratorium until CBA tweaks are finalized -- and teams' draft boards continue to differ immensely.
Here's the latest I'm hearing about the No. 1 pick race, the likely picks at the top of the draft, team intel and prospects on the rise.
Top picks nearly locked in?
It's still difficult to have a firm grasp on where each projected lottery pick will end up, though a consensus is beginning to form among teams that split the top prospects into two tiers.
Unless a surprise trade completely disrupts the top of the draft, LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman are likely to make up the top three in some order, according to conversations with multiple team executives, scouts and agents. Most NBA front offices are operating under the assumption that Ball is going No. 1 -- either to the Minnesota Timberwolves or a team that trades up to select him.
Some popular picks among executives to make such a move for Ball at No. 1 include the Chicago Bulls (currently holding the No. 4 pick), Detroit Pistons (No. 7) and Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 25, plus a stash of future firsts).
Ball has yet to conduct any workouts for teams and, at least for now, has made no plans to do so. Multiple front offices were somewhat discouraged watching Edwards' performance during his televised pro day on Oct. 29, seeing sluggishness and inconsistencies with his jump shot. Tyrese Maxey, who showed up in outstanding condition and shot the ball better than expected, might have caused Edwards to look a bit worse by comparison, according to some executives. While many around the NBA are enamored with Edwards' talent, a lack of trust in his likelihood of reaching his full potential is still often cited a hurdle he has to overcome. Whether it's fair or not, his pro day didn't help his case there.
As ESPN's Zach Lowe reported last week, the Wolves and Golden State Warriors (No. 2) have explored trading their picks for star-level players, without a real deal materializing yet. Sources say the Charlotte Hornets (No. 3) have not seriously considered picking any prospects outside the top group of Ball, Wiseman and Edwards.
After those three, the second tier includes Deni Avdija, Obi Toppin, Isaac Okoro, Tyrese Haliburton, Onyeka Okongwu and Patrick Williams. Those players appear likely to make up picks Nos. 4-9 in some order.
Williams -- a 6-foot-8 wing out of Florida State -- is the big winner of the pre-draft process thus far. He has boosted his stock from outside the lottery at the conclusion of the college season to getting looks as high as the No. 4 pick, sources say.
Sources also say the Pistons, under new general manager Troy Weaver, are interested in Williams, who fits Weaver's draft profile from his time in OKC as a young, toolsy, upside-laden prospect.
Detroit has plenty of options on draft night, including trades up, down or out of the draft, as well as potential discussions surrounding Blake Griffin. Williams at No. 7 is not a guarantee, though some teams in the lottery are planning as if he lands there.
Picks Nos. 10-20 beginning to take shape
There is far less consensus around the league after that top nine. Devin Vassell, Killian Hayes, Aaron Nesmith, Tyrese Maxey, Precious Achiuwa, RJ Hampton, Kira Lewis and Saddiq Bey are the most likely to land among teams in the top 20.
Aleksej Pokusevski, Cole Anthony, Jalen Smith and Josh Green could also go that high, though their draft ranges appear to be a bit wider.
While trades could certainly shake up the way this part of the draft materializes, teams looking to move up or down to this range are saying it's proving to be surprisingly difficult because of the high asking price.
Picks belonging to the Sacramento Kings (No. 12), Boston Celtics (No. 14), Wolves (No. 17), Dallas Mavericks (No. 1
, Brooklyn Nets (No. 19) and Miami Heat (No. 20) are the most prevalent in trade conversations lately, per sources.
End of the first round is completely up for grabs
With the exception of the New York Knicks at No. 27, picks Nos. 21-30 include most of the best teams in the NBA, which will likely alter teams' decision-making here. Older prospects ready to play a role immediately will be at a premium, along with multipositional wings, backup point guards or centers, and potentially some international prospects willing to be stashed to conserve roster spots.
Upperclassmen such as Malachi Flynn, Desmond Bane, Jordan Nwora and Xavier Tillman have seen their stock rise in recent weeks for those reasons, positioning themselves firmly in this range due to their plug-and-play nature. The fact that players will have only one month to go from hearing their name called to stepping on the floor for a regular-season game could very well change how teams value late first-rounders.
We'll reveal a new mock draft on Wednesday, and one of the most difficult parts of constructing one this year revolves around the huge glut of guards and centers vying for spots in the first round.
Every team seems to rank prospects in both positional groups differently. That could lead to some surprising outcomes on draft night in the form of players being selected significantly higher or lower than where the league as a whole ranks them.