2025 NBA Draft Thread

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pmatic said:
So who is Sacramento trading #4 for?

I think they need a forward, but likely none available besides Keegan Murray.
Click to expand...

Wonder if there's a potential trade there w/ Sac + Houston

I also still don't like the idea of an Ivey/Green or Sharpe/Green backcourt for Houston btw.
 


NBA Mock Draft 2022: Jabari Smith Jr. to Magic at No. 1; post-lottery picks for every team

The 2022 NBA Draft Lottery has come and gone, with the Orlando Magic winning the No. 1 overall pick. The Magic will get their choice of top prospects Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Jaden Ivey, allowing them to add to a terrific core that features a number of compelling young pieces.

Beneath them, the Thunder moved up to No. 2 in the draft, positioning them to take a really strong interior presence to add to their bevy of perimeter talent. The Houston Rockets stayed in the top three, a big result that will allow them to take the best of the skilled 6-foot-10-plus players to add to their frontcourt. And the Sacramento Kings moved up and will get a chance to add an impact piece to a team that will look to compete for the playoffs next year.

Having said that, this is a wide-open draft. Here are a few notes before we dive into breaking down potential selections:

  • This is as unpredictable a draft as I can remember throughout the first round. The top four is up for grabs. The next tier is seven or eight guys long, followed by another mini-tier of likely first-round picks. After that? It’s wide open.
  • Based on my conversations with decision-makers and scouts, teams are spreading their pool of players wider than usual because of this class’ unpredictability. The range from about No. 19 through picks in the early 40s is more fluid than usual heading into the NBA Draft Combine. Some teams have a top-15 grade on a player, while others may rank that same player outside of their top 40. This is an eye-of-the-beholder draft. Anyone who claims to know how that back half of the first round will shake out at this point is fooling themself.
  • In that vein, this mock draft is best treated as a general guide to the class’ hottest names rather than a statement of any individual team’s interest in that specific prospect. One thing I’ve heard from agents and the front office personnel in charge of booking workouts is that this year feels a bit more sped up than in recent years — and who could blame them for feeling that way? After the pandemic forced the draft to be held in November 2020 and July 2021 in each of the past two years, this is our first year getting back to a normal cycle earlier in the calendar.
  • The pandemic also helps explain why scouts are particularly split on freshmen who entered the draft despite unpolished skill sets, such as Max Christie, Caleb Houstan, Josh Minott, Harrison Ingram, JD Davison, Peyton Watson, Terquavion Smith, Leonard Miller and others. Their development in high school was stunted when COVID-19 took away their entire AAU slate, and many also lost large parts of their high school season. That presents a unique challenge for scouts who haven’t been able to see them play as many games as a typical prospect who jumps to the NBA after one college season. How much will teams justify taking a chance on their skill sets and hoping they’ll develop without much evidence of proven production? It remains to be seen, but the worst stages of the COVID-19 pandemic loom as a massive contextual factor in the draft.
  • With that being said, here is where we are post-lottery and pre-combine.

1. Orlando Magic
Jabari Smith Jr. | 6-10 forward | 19 years old | Auburn
Smith is my favorite prospect in the class because he possesses the combination of skills that are most in demand in the current NBA. He’s an elite shooter who made 42 percent from 3 in 2021-22 while also possessing enough athleticism and shot-creation ability to get to his pull-up jumper. I see him as an efficient 20-plus point-per-game scorer and a versatile defender who can switch across multiple positions. Elite shooting and strong defense are the best possible baseline for a teenage NBA player.

Smith must improve as a passer and ballhandler attacking the rim. He was a good but not great finisher, and he hasn’t shown an ability to make multi-layered passing reads. But I think he’s the safest prospect in this class, and he retains a lot of upside due to his shot-creation skill, especially when generating stepback jumpers.

The Magic simply just need elite talent, and they’ll likely take the best player available. With that being the case, I like Smith as that guy for them. The team has a lot of pieces across the position spectrum and should just take the guy they think works best for them.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Chet Holmgren | 7-1 center | 20 years old | Gonzaga
Now that we know the draft order, the Holmgren debates can begin in earnest. His supporters will note his elite defense. Even at 195 pounds, he is a monster rim protector who combines outstanding positioning with excellent anticipation, and he can at least hang in when pulled away from the rim. He has Defensive Player of the Year upside.

On offense, he’s a great shooter from distance, a strong finisher at the basket and an unselfish passer. The issue is he’s 195 pounds while playing a physical style that puts him against the biggest players in the league. How will his frame hold up? How long will it take for him to get stronger? Holmgren’s upside is higher than any other player in this class, but there is real uncertainty about his future among the NBA decision-makers who are ultimately putting their jobs on the line in drafting him.

Holmgren fits really well with an Oklahoma City team that could use a real rim protector inside. His ability to play outside-in offensively will also likely appeal to coach Mark Daigneault.

3. Houston Rockets
Paolo Banchero | 6-10 forward | 19 years old | Duke
In leading Duke to the Final Four this year, Banchero showed why he is the most complete offensive player in this draft class. He’s a matchup nightmare at 6-foot-10 and 245 pounds. He’s physical but has a lot of polish as a ballhandler and shot creator, countering multiple defensive coverages with ease. He favors scoring from the less efficient midrange zone but can generate those shots with ease through his ability to separate and shoot over the top. On top of that, there’s a case that he’s the best passer — at 6-foot-10! — than anyone else in the lottery.

Banchero’s defense lags behind his outstanding offense, but if your team is seeking a primary playmaker, he is the guy to bet on.

Houston will look to just draft the best player available here, and that’s Banchero. He fits well as a frontcourt playmaker who can pass paired with Jalen Green as a scorer in the backcourt.

4. Sacramento Kings
Jaden Ivey | 6-4 guard | 20 years old | Purdue
Picking Ivey this high is all about his upside. He’s the best athlete in the class and was extremely productive this year at Purdue. He has a lightning-quick first step, can power through defenders on the move and finish with explosive leaps at the hoop. The way he uses his speed to create driving lanes and transition opportunities resembles No. 1 pick John Wall early in his NBA career.

Ivey’s main issues are his non-existent midrange game and sub-elite passing skills, both essential skills for an NBA lead guard. If he can’t improve those areas, it will be hard for him to take on a primary offensive role consistently. But if those parts of Ivey’s game come together, he could end up as the best player in this class.

The Kings have De’Aaron Fox in place already, but they did just fill the big position with Domantas Sabonis at the trade deadline. I would imagine this is purely a best-player-available situation, depending on which of the top four falls.

5. Detroit Pistons
Shaedon Sharpe | 6-6 forward | 18 years old | Kentucky
A Shaedon Sharpe sighting for the first time this draft cycle!

If the NBA Draft has a mystery man within the top 10, it’s Sharpe. The 6-foot-6 wing from Canada committed to Kentucky early this year, only made it to campus for the second semester, then sat out the season and subsequently declared for the draft. He is eligible to be picked because he graduated high school before the 2021-22 NBA season began and turned 19 before the end of 2022.

Sharpe represents a high-upside gamble due to his potential as a wing shot creator. He looks every bit like a future NBA star wing, combining elite length with terrific hops. The problem for scouts is that he hasn’t played much at high levels of competition, so nobody’s really sure how he’ll react to the speed of the game. He has all of the tools to be great, but it’ll take a team willing to dive in and take a risk. Troy Weaver tends to really like players with a great intersection of athleticism and length, as well as guys who have high upsides. Sharpe also fits really well on the wing as a shot maker next to Cade Cunningham.

6. Indiana Pacers
Keegan Murray | 6-8 forward | 21 years old | Iowa
Murray is the safest pick of this year’s lottery as a skilled 6-foot-8 forward who averaged 23 points and eight rebounds per game this season for Iowa while shooting 40 percent from 3. He’s a terrific finisher inside and has even flashed the ability to generate 3-point shots off pick-and-pops and off-ball movement. His game resembles Philadelphia’s Tobias Harris, who has been a starting-quality, near All-Star player for several seasons. Murray’s defensive foot speed, much like Harris’, is suspect, but he makes up for it with his strength. If he can get a body on his man, teams should feel comfortable that he can stay in front of them. Ultimately, Murray slots in nicely on a large variety of teams.

7. Portland Trail Blazers
Jeremy Sochan | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | Baylor
Sochan has been a riser up the draft board throughout the year. Teams are fascinated by his upside as a player who is extremely versatile on both ends of the floor. He’s a switchable defender as a 6-foot-9 big who can realistically guard all five positions using his mobility. He’s also really smart with his positioning and timing and seems to have terrific instincts.

Offensively, he’s huge, can handle the ball over large spaces, make reasonably high-level passes and finish effectively at the rim. Really, the only concern among scouts is his shooting. But there are some in the industry who see Sochan as a late riser, like Patrick Williams in 2020, because of how multifaceted his game is at his size. If you buy that Sochan’s shooting will improve, he has a real chance to be an impact player given his two-way upside at his size.

In general, the Blazers’ front office — much of which is still in place from the departed Neil Olshey’s regime — has tended to draft very young and upside-driven. Sochan is the kind of guy who has tended to fit with how they like to invest in projects. They could also use an impact defender.

8. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers)
Bennedict Mathurin | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Arizona
Mathurin won Pac-12 Player of the Year this season as a terrific scorer who averaged 18 points and six rebounds per game while shooting 45 percent from the field and 37 percent from 3. His role early in his NBA career will be that of a 3-point marksman. He’s excellent as a shooter off the catch and has a bit more game than that when driving closeouts and attacking using second-side actions. If he can keep improving as a ballhandler, he might have some real upside beyond that. It also helps that he’s a terrific open-floor athlete who gets downhill with powerful leaping ability. He’s substantially improved every year, including this season, when he took legitimate strides as a passer in averaging three assists over his final 16 games. His defense will be a work in progress because his fundamentals and effort level weren’t always there. But Mathurin is a floor-spacer-plus model of a player early in his career and should make an impact on any team that needs help on the wing.

The Pelicans should continue to look to add shooting to surround a core around Zion Williamson. Mathurin fits really well as a player who could make an impact as soon as next year on a playoff team and fits really well potentially on the wing with defensive dynamo Herb Jones.

9. San Antonio Spurs
A.J. Griffin | 6-6 forward | 18 years old | Duke
Griffin remains polarizing for teams largely because his value rests on a philosophical question: How valuable are shooting and shot making if they come at the expense, potentially, of everything else?

The one thing we know Griffin can do is shoot. He’s one of the better teenage shooting prospects you’ll find, having hit 45 percent from 3 this season. He makes 3s off pull-ups and off the catch at a high level and has a chance to become a top shot creator given his size, length and strength. But can he do enough else to be an effective player if the shot isn’t falling?

Griffin was a poor defender this season and had a lot of games where he wasn’t quite as visible as teams would like to see from a potential lottery pick. Additionally, he has had a few injury questions over the past year. Will he showcase more athletic explosiveness the further removed he gets from missing large parts of his final two high school seasons? He’s not necessarily a wild card, but evaluators differ in their opinions of him depending on the value they place in certain skills.

10. Washington Wizards
Johnny Davis | 6-5 wing | 20 years old | Wisconsin
The Big Ten Player of the Year, Davis is an extremely competitive guard who plays tough on both ends. Offensively, he’s a shot creator and maker who was responsible for just about everything in Wisconsin’s offense this year. He was faultless throughout the first part of the season, hitting shots at a reasonable level, rebounding at an elite level for a guard and showing up in the biggest moments. But he suffered an ankle injury late in the season, and as he played through it, his numbers fell off a bit. He averaged 17 points per game over his final 12 games, but he shot just 42 percent from the field and 22 percent from 3 in that time. His elevation, in general, looked sapped, as did his ability to stop and start. But when he was at his best, Davis was a good three-level scorer who also played hard on defense. That translates at least on some level to the NBA. The ceiling on his draft status has dropped a bit in recent months, but I’d still anticipate him going in the No. 7 to No. 17 range.

11. New York Knicks
Jalen Duren | 6-11 center | 18 years old | Memphis
Duren is your typical rim-running, shot-blocking center at 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He physically looks like an NBA player despite being the youngest player slotted in this mock draft, with a chiseled, 245-pound frame. He ended up averaging 12 points, eight rebounds and two blocks per game this year and shot 60 percent from the field, with most of his finishes being dunks. That was despite the fact that he didn’t have a point guard who could offer much help setting him up until late in the year.

I’m not a total buyer in Duren’s switchability defensively, but there are some scouts within the league who think he has a chance to provide value there too. Ultimately, I see him as a DeAndre Jordan starter kit. Can Duren get as good as Jordan was positionally in his prime? That’ll be the key to him becoming a top-10 center in the league.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC)
Dyson Daniels | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Daniels is a terrific playmaker and defender for his size. Sources have told me he has grown throughout the past year — we’ll find that out officially at the combine this week — and if that’s the case, it’s easy to see him rising throughout the draft process. I don’t think there is a better perimeter defender in the class, as he’s switchable and disruptive with awesome instincts. He shared point guard duties for the Ignite and was their best option due to his unselfishness.

His draft stock just comes down to his shooting. His shot doesn’t look broken, but there are some slight mechanical tweaks he needs to make to get better rhythm and power from the lower half of his body. If his shooting comes around, Daniels profiles as a terrific starting guard who could turn into one of the best role players in the NBA. In general, I think the Thunder will continue to just look to add good players within their core.

13. Charlotte Hornets
Mark Williams | 7-0 center | 20 years old | Duke
This pick is all about positional fit and value. Williams is one of the best rim protectors in the draft, a 7-foot shot swatter who blocked three shots per game this season and got better as the year went on. He also averaged 11 points per game and shot 72 percent from the field as a monster rim runner, a skill that should translate well due to his ability to get downhill out of rolls. He runs the floor well and has elite length, even by NBA center standards.

This is a position the Hornets have struggled to fill over the past few years. They took Kai Jones last season, but Jones doesn’t quite profile as the rim protector Williams could be. That’s especially important for a team that must find answers on defense sooner rather than later, with LaMelo Ball entering the portion of his career where he must be ready to compete in the playoffs.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers
Ousmane Dieng | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | New Zealand Breakers
The Cavaliers missed the playoffs and keep this pick as a result, since they attached lottery protection on it in the 2022 trade with Indiana for Caris LeVert. The Cavs have terrific bigs and an All-Star guard in Darius Garland. What they desperately need, more than anything else, are wing players — particularly ones with size.

Dieng is 6-foot-9, and I liked some of his defensive efforts late in the year for the New Zealand Breakers in the Australian NBL. He was terrific later in the team’s campaign, averaging 13.3 points in his final 12 games while shooting 48 percent from the field and 36 percent from 3. He played much more under control than he did early in the season, when it seemed like the game was moving a million miles an hour for him. He’s not a crazy athlete, but he can dribble, pass and shoot at a high level for a teenager at his size. His upside makes him a worthy swing to take given the Cavaliers are unlikely to have their first-rounder next year.

15. Charlotte Hornets (via NOP)
Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 wing | 22 years old | Kansas
The Most Outstanding Player at the Final Four this year, Agbaji’s game translates really well to the NBA. He’s an elite, 6-foot-5 catch-and-shoot player, having hit 40.7 percent from 3 on nearly seven attempts per game this season. He’s also an efficient scorer in transition and has become much more comfortable putting the ball on the deck and handling the ball when necessary.

Defensively, he’s tough, strong and physical for a wing, though he lacks the elite-level measurements that most genuine plus defenders in the NBA possess. He’ll hold his own and won’t make mistakes. He might just end up as a role player, but his solid defensive play and shooting make him a good player for Charlotte to target when looking for running mates with Ball. Under the Michael Jordan ownership regime, the Hornets have also valued high-level collegiate producers as opposed to rawer projects.

16. Atlanta Hawks
Malaki Branham | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Ohio State
The name of the game with Branham is shooting — and scoring. Branham closed the season on a tear, deservedly winning the Big Ten’s Freshman of the Year award and playing well in Ohio State’s two NCAA Tournament games. In his final 22 games, Branham averaged 17 points on 52.8 percent from the field and 43.2 percent from 3. He was outstanding as a shot creator over his final portion of the season.

Though Branham isn’t an elite athlete, he does a great job of getting defenders off-balanced when attacking and getting downhill. He has a pure midrange game that bodes well for his long-term success. He can break down guys in isolation, get separation with a series of hesitations and crossovers, and rise up to knock down a shot. He needs to improve on defense — he’s pretty rough there right now — but scouts expect he will be a top-20 pick.

17. Houston Rockets (via BKN)
TyTy Washington Jr.| 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
Washington is a polarizing prospect. Many talent evaluators believe Kentucky tends to hold back its guards, so we don’t see the best of them until they reach the NBA. Think Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey and Keldon Johnson in recent years. Additionally, Washington was arguably the best freshman guard in the country during the first half of the season. From Game 1 to Game 17, Washington averaged 14.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists while shooting 51.5 percent from the field, 42 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line. But he suffered a couple of ankle injuries in games against Auburn and Florida. Over his final 14 games, he averaged 10 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists and shot just 36.2 percent from the field and 27.7 percent from 3 while playing through those two injuries. Which stretch represents the real TyTy? Teams will need to get him in for workouts and figure it out.

18. Chicago Bulls
Tari Eason | 6-8 forward | 21 years old | LSU
Eason is one of the more productive players in this draft class, a 6-foot-8 forward who averaged 17 points, nearly seven rebounds, two steals and a block while shooting 52 percent from the field and 36 percent from 3. His jumper looks a bit messy, as he has catapult-like mechanics that might take some time to iron out. He’s also not a terrific playmaker for others. But defensively, there are few prospects in this draft with more potential to guard a variety of players on the ball. He can lose his way at times while executing his team’s scheme, but I bet teams are willing to bet on him figuring that out. The Bulls have a great set of perimeter players already in Alex Caruso, Lonzo Ball, Coby White, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, assuming LaVine re-signs this summer. They could use another forward who can defend to give them better lineup versatility, something they lacked this year when Patrick Williams missed most of the season with a wrist injury.

19. Minnesota Timberwolves
Blake Wesley | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Notre Dame
Wesley is a shot creator with dynamic, powerful athleticism who can attack out of ball screens and get open looks. The act of getting past the first level of defenders and collapsing the defense is something he has down pat. The problem for Wesley right now is the final product. He struggled immensely after college coaches got eyes on him and devised schemes to slow him down. Over his final 17 games of the season, Wesley shot just 36 percent from the field and 26 percent from 3. His NCAA Tournament appearances were a good encapsulation of this trend, as he shot 15-for-45 over three games and looked a bit overwhelmed at times. Having said that, his ceiling is high. His blend of powerful strides and suddenness, as well as his size, gives him an awful lot of potential once he gets that final product figured out.

20. San Antonio Spurs (via TOR)
Walker Kessler | 7-1 center | 20 years old | Auburn
Kessler was my pick for college basketball’s national Defensive Player of the Year. He’s a monster interior rim protector who swats shots with impunity and plays well in drop-coverage situations. He averaged a whopping five blocks per game in SEC play this season, along with 12 points and nine rebounds. Some scouts think he can shoot a bit from the perimeter.

Kessler played his worst game of the season in Auburn’s NCAA Tournament loss to Miami, giving scouts a bad last taste. Against an athletic, up-tempo Hurricanes team that pushed the pace, Kessler didn’t look up to speed and struggled to keep up. Given that he’ll face high-level athletes every night in the NBA, teams must decide if that performance was a harbinger of something to come or an aberration based on his success in the SEC this season.

Still, Kessler is one of the best rim protectors in this class and should stick off that skill alone. The Spurs have a need for more depth in the middle behind Jakob Poeltl, at the very least. Kessler would bring that.

21. Denver Nuggets
Jalen Williams | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Santa Clara
Williams is my first surprise spike up the board. He has been a significant riser as teams have actually gone back through tape and done the work. There just aren’t many holes in his game. He’s big, standing 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He’s versatile on the ball and defends multiple positions. He hits 40 percent from 3. He can pass at a high level, as he spent time throughout his development at point guard until a late growth spurt pushed him out to the wing. He has a low center of gravity, which allows him to move opposing players, and he possesses some real shake off the bounce. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see him end up in the top 20 by the time the draft rolls around.

22. Memphis Grizzlies (via UTA)
Bryce McGowens | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Nebraska
McGowens’ value as a prospect is all about what he could be, not what he is yet. He was great to close the season at Nebraska, but he still didn’t shoot well despite solid mechanics. He’s skinny, but he tries to play a physical brand of basketball. He can create off the bounce at 6-foot-7. It might take some time for him early in his career as he works through his passing reads and gets stronger, but he’s an interesting upside flier for teams to take, given his size as a potential on-ball player. The Grizzlies are in a great place as a franchise, they have a history of developing young players, and they have a few picks to be able to add to their core with upside swings.

23. Brooklyn Nets (via PHI)
Jaden Hardy | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The more I go back and watch Hardy’s tape, the more impressed I am with his play later in the season. He may have the best handle in the class, and he knocked down a higher percentage from 3 over his last month and a half. He was more willing to make passing reads later in the season, something he’s actually quite adept at when he chooses to be.

It’s all about shot selection for Hardy. He needs to be willing to take better shots and play more within the confines of his team’s style of play. Oh, and he has to be willing to defend — something he doesn’t do enough now. But this year’s NBA postseason has shown how valuable these on-ball creators who can shoot can be. Though Hardy’s full-season shooting numbers weren’t elite because of his poor shot selection, I think he is a good shooter who makes them when he’s open.

24. Milwaukee Bucks
Terquavion Smith | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | N.C. State
A big riser up the board. Smith had a terrific season offensively with the Wolfpack as a freshman, averaging 18.3 points per game in ACC play and shooting 40.1 percent from 3 on a ridiculous nine attempts per game. He’s an awesome shot maker that creates them off the bounce and has real suddenness to his game off the bounce. He doesn’t finish well on drives, and the less said about his defense, the better. But last year, Josh Primo and Tre Mann proved there is a real first-round market for elite 3-point marksmen who create their own looks off the bounce and have enough youth to grow into the rest of their game. The Bucks could use more floor-spacing and shot-creation depth, as shown in the playoffs this year.

25. San Antonio Spurs (via BOS)
Nikola Jović | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Mega
Jović is a skilled big man out of Serbia who averaged almost 12 points per game this year as a teenager in the Adriatic League while shooting 36 percent from 3 and averaging 3.4 assists. His value lies in his skill and feel for the game. Jović sees the floor well as a point forward and has workable mechanics to the point that it’s easy to buy him becoming an impact player on the offensive end in a specific role. There are questions about his defense, but he’s big and smart enough that teams have some faith that they can make it work with him as he continues to be coached. He’s not a crazy athlete, but the Spurs have been successful taking players like him in the past.

26. Dallas Mavericks
MarJon Beauchamp | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | G League Ignite
Beauchamp has an awesome story of perseverance, essentially carving out his own path after choosing not to go to college. He worked his way into getting an Ignite contract this year and impressed scouts with his willingness to do all of the little things. He defends well on the ball with real switchability because of his 6-foot-11 wingspan. He is aggressive in crashing the glass. He cuts and makes things happen.

He has become the kind of dirty-work-style wing who does whatever the team needs of him. Ultimately, NBA teams will need him to shoot, and I’m a bit skeptical he can do that, which is why he’s more of an end-of-the-first-round guy. But if the shooting comes, he could be a valuable rotation player.

27. Miami Heat
Kennedy Chandler | 6-0 guard | 19 years old | Tennessee
Chandler won MVP of the SEC tournament, and over his final 15 games, he averaged 15 points, five rebounds and two steals while shooting better than 50 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3. I don’t totally trust his jumper, but there is enough of a chance he can fix it given his improvement over the last portion of the season, and his defensive aggression gives him a shot despite being small.

But he is a 6-0 point guard in a league that makes it exceptionally hard for smaller guards to thrive. NBA players hunt mismatches and just shoot over the top of smaller opponents. Chandler is good enough, but Sharife Cooper, a smaller guard, plummeted out of the first round last year due to his size, despite a monster freshman season in the SEC.

28. Golden State Warriors
Jake LaRavia | 6-8 forward | 20 years old | Wake Forest
LaRavia has risen up the board as teams have gone back through tape at the start of the process. He stands out due to his feel for the game, his 6-foot-8 frame and his skill as a shooter. The teams that tend to love him are analytically inclined and value the ability to dribble, pass and shoot. He’s not the most athletic guy, and some teams do have athletic concerns about how he might hold up on defense. But LaRavia is very good as a team defender and makes the right rotations. For a role player, it’s tough to find more than that. Given his intelligence as a mover without the ball and his shooting, the Warriors seem like a perfect fit.

29. Memphis Grizzlies
Patrick Baldwin Jr. | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | Milwaukee
Baldwin is not a certainty to stay in the draft, and scouts have him all over the map. Some are willing to entirely overlook an unmitigated disaster of a freshman season at Milwaukee. Others are not. Baldwin averaged 12 points and six rebounds while shooting 34 percent from the field and 26 percent from 3 in the Horizon League. That is bad. But a lot of it can be chalked up to circumstance, if you want to make that case. He’s a non-shot creator who ended up having to do too much on offense far too regularly. He’d have been much better off on a team where other players could have created shots for him, and he could have used his pristine shooting mechanics to hit open looks. Indeed, he didn’t get many clean opportunities this season. Per Synergy, Baldwin took just seven uncontested 3-pointers this season in 11 games, a low number that exemplifies how much Milwaukee’s guards struggled. But there are plenty of scouts who are still interested and see the same guy who was a consensus top-five recruit in the country. I’ll be completely honest: I have no idea what direction his draft stock will go.

30. Oklahoma City Thunder (via PHX)
Kendall Brown | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Baylor
Brown had an outstanding start to the season and drummed up some lottery support following great performances on both ends of the court. But his limitations on offense continued to pop up over the course of the season. He is not particularly comfortable as a shooter and just isn’t comfortable as a ballhandler in the half court. But he’s extremely athletic with all sorts of twitch and vertical pop at 6-foot-8, and he defends in space at a high level. He makes impact action plays to get out in transition regularly, too. My bet is someone takes a flier on his athleticism in the first round, given his defense is already pretty good. If he shoots, he’s an impact player.

Second round
31. Indiana Pacers (via HOU): Trevor Keels | 6-5 guard | 18 years old | Duke

32. Orlando Magic: E.J. Liddell | 6-7 forward | 21 years old | Ohio State

33. Toronto Raptors (via DET): Leonard Miller | 6-10 wing | 18 years old | Fort Erie Prep

34. Oklahoma City Thunder: Christian Koloko | 7-1 center | 21 years old | Arizona

35. Orlando Magic (via IND): Max Christie | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Michigan State

36. Portland Trail Blazers: Caleb Houstan | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Michigan

37. Sacramento Kings: Wendell Moore Jr. | 6-5 wing | 20 years old | Duke

38. San Antonio Spurs (via LAL): Christian Braun | 6-7 wing | 21 years old | Kansas

39. Cleveland Cavaliers (via SAS): Dalen Terry | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Arizona

40. Minnesota Timberwolves (via WAS): Peyton Watson | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | UCLA

41. New Orleans Pelicans: Josh Minott | 6-8 forward | 20 years old | Memphis

42. New York Knicks: Ryan Rollins | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Toledo

43. LA Clippers: Jean Montero | 6-2 guard | 18 years old | Overtime Elite

44. Atlanta Hawks: Harrison Ingram | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Stanford

45. Charlotte Hornets: Ismaël Kamagate | 6-11 center | 21 years old | Paris Basketball

46. Detroit Pistons (via BKN): Khalifa Diop | 6-11 center | 20 years old | Gran Canaria

47. Memphis Grizzlies (via CLE): Jaylin Williams | 6-10 center | 19 years old | Arkansas

48. Minnesota Timberwolves: Alondes Williams | 6-5 guard | 22 years old | Wake Forest

49. Sacramento Kings (via CHI): Justin Lewis | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Marquette

50. Minnesota Timberwolves (via DEN): Jabari Walker | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | Colorado

51. Golden State Warriors (via TOR): JD Davison | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Alabama

52. New Orleans Pelicans (via UTA): Keon Ellis | 6-6 wing | 22 years old | Alabama

53. Boston Celtics: Isaiah Mobley | 6-10 forward | 22 years old | USC

54. Washington (via DAL): Matteo Spagnolo | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Vanoli Cremona

55. Golden State Warriors: Gabriele Procida | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Fortitudo Bologna

56. Cleveland Cavaliers (via MIA): Hugo Besson | 6-3 guard | 21 years old | New Zealand Breakers

57. Portland Trail Blazers (via MEM): Dom Barlow | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | Overtime Elite

58: Indiana Pacers (via PHX): Julian Champagnie | 6-8 forward | 20 years old | St. John’s
 

2022 NBA mock draft: Projecting all 58 picks after the NBA draft lottery

Weeks of anticipation gave way to Tuesday night's NBA draft lottery, where the Orlando Magic earned the No. 1 pick and teams selecting No. 2 through No. 14 also learned their fate. With the complete draft order now known, the 26 teams that have concluded their seasons will turn their primary attention to the 2022 NBA draft to be held at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn on June 23rd. The potential destinations of the Big Three -- Gonzaga center Chet Holmgren, Auburn power forward Jabari Smith and Duke forward Paolo Banchero -- will be among the top storylines, and how the dominoes fall later in the lottery and the first round will be an all-consuming question.

With that in mind, ESPN draft expert Jonathan Givony considered the draft board and the likely players available at each spot, updating the ESPN 2022 NBA mock draft accordingly. Givony's latest mock, which reflects a long period of exhaustive evaluation of the 2022 draft class and considers intel gathered from conversations with scouts and front-office personnel, also accounts for picks owed and owned by all 30 teams.

1. Orlando Magic
Jabari Smith
Auburn
SF/PF
Age: 18.9

The Magic are loaded with young talent on the perimeter and could very well look to the frontcourt, where much of this draft's high-end talent is concentrated. The Magic struggled to space the floor effectively last season, and Smith is arguably the most dynamic shooter in the college game, converting 42% of his 3-pointers despite standing 6-foot-10. He's also a highly versatile defender who plays with outstanding intensity, switching all over the floor with quick feet and impressive energy, giving the Magic the ability to play in a variety of lineup configurations with their many existing pieces.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Chet Holmgren
Gonzaga
PF
Age: 20.0

The Thunder don't have much in the way of long-term building blocks in the frontcourt and will be thrilled to see Holmgren, arguably the most talented prospect in the draft, available here. In Holmgren, the Thunder can acquire the draft's biggest difference-maker defensively, a force on the glass and a rim protector who also shot 39% from beyond the arc and brings significant upside as a passer, finisher and shot creator.

3. Houston Rockets
Paolo Banchero
Duke
PF/C
Age: 19.4

The Rockets drafted a franchise building block in Jalen Green last year and will now likely look to improve their frontcourt, which happens to be the strength of this class. Banchero's ability to create offense off the dribble both for himself and teammates should pair well with the explosive transition scoring and shot-making ability Green offers. Banchero could start next to a more traditional big man such as Alperen Sengun or operate alongside another perimeter-oriented big man like Christian Wood, making him a strong fit for the Rockets long-term.

4. Sacramento Kings
Keegan Murray
Iowa
PF/C
Age: 21.7

The Kings will take long looks at both Jaden Ivey, who could create a dynamic backcourt with De'Aaron Fox, or Murray, arguably the best player in college basketball this past season. Murray doesn't need plays called for him to be effective and should be able to play as a stretch 4 alongside Domantas Sabonis, as well in smaller lineups as a small-ball center with Harrison Barnes. The Kings have said they want to return to playoff contention as soon as possible and picking an almost 22-year-old All-American certainly will help with that.

5. Detroit Pistons

Jaden Ivey
Purdue
PG/SG
Age: 20.2

The Pistons struck gold in potential rookie of the year Cade Cunningham last year and can now look to add another dynamic backcourt player who can help shoulder the offensive responsibility. Ivey is the most electric prospect in the class, possessing the type of extra gear-changing speeds in the open floor that few NBA players possess. Ivey's size, frame and length, along with the strides he has made as a shooter, will allow him to slide into a variety of lineup configurations, making it easy for him to find his way onto the floor, especially as his defense and decision-making improve.

6. Indiana Pacers
Shaedon Sharpe
Kentucky
SG
Age: 18.9

The Pacers are in rebuilding mode and will likely be looking to swing for the fences for a franchise player to pair with Tyrese Haliburton and Malcolm Brogdon. Sharpe is oozing with talent, possessing elite physical tools with his exceptional frame, length and explosiveness, to go along with dynamic perimeter shooting ability. There was a reason he was the No. 1 ranked player in his high school class, but his lack of experience and how little he's been evaluated may make it difficult for a team picking higher than this to roll the dice on him.

7. Portland Trail Blazers
Jalen Duren
Memphis
C
Age: 18.4

The Blazers are early in their rebuilding process and have a gaping void at center, where often-injured Jusuf Nurkic is entering unrestricted free agency this summer. Duren is the most physically gifted big man in this class, bringing impressive finishing prowess as well as outstanding defensive potential as both a rim-protector and guarding pick-and-roll. As the youngest player in this class, he has considerable upside to grow into as well.

8. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers)
AJ Griffin
Duke
SF/PF
Age: 18.7

The Pelicans really struggled to space the floor effectively at times this past season, ranking among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA in both makes and accuracy. Griffin, who made 45% of his 3-pointers, is arguably the best shooter in the draft and also one of the youngest players in this class. His 7-foot wingspan gives him significant potential defensively, and he plays one of the most coveted positions in the modern NBA.

9. San Antonio Spurs
Dyson Daniels
G League Ignite
PG/SG
Age: 19.1

The Spurs have quite a few young pieces in the backcourt but are in full-fledged talent-acquisition mode and will be thinking hard about picking the best long-term prospect they can acquire with this pick. Adding a versatile guard who can play in a variety of lineup configurations and do a little bit of everything could be attractive here, especially considering the type of players Gregg Popovich typically values. Daniels is an outstanding defender who fills up the box score with rebounds, assists, blocks and steals, and has plenty of upside to grow into considering he just turned 19 years old.

10. Washington Wizards
Johnny Davis
Wisconsin
PG/SG
Age: 20.2

The Wizards will certainly look to improve their backcourt, both in the draft and free agency, after cycling through a cascade of guards in an injury-plagued season. Enter Davis, who brings many of the winning intangibles the Wizards should be looking for with his defensive versatility, unselfishness and ability to score with or without the ball. Davis would fit well alongside the ball-dominant Bradley Beal and looks ready to contribute immediately coming off an All-America season, despite being relatively young at 20.

11. New York Knicks
Bennedict Mathurin
Arizona
SF
Age: 19.8

The Knicks had a difficult season offensively, ranking last in 2-point percentage and second-to-last in assist rate. This pick won't solve all their issues, but adding an All-American wing like Mathurin, who is an outstanding perimeter shooter and looks ready to contribute immediately, could make sense, as he can play either wing spot alongside RJ Barrett and has plenty of upside to grow into at just 19 years old.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers)
Ousmane Dieng
NZ Breakers
SF/PF
Age: 18.9

The Thunder can afford to be patient and take a swing on a high-upside prospect such as Dieng, who has the type of positional size, feel for the game and versatility the front office typically values. A fluid wing with ample size to slide to the power forward position as his frame fills out, Dieng hit his stride in a major way as the season moved on in the Australian NBL, flashing dynamic shot-making ability, vision operating out of pick-and-roll, and the ability to guard multiple positions. Not yet 19, Dieng isn't particularly close to being ready to help a team win games, but that might not be the worst thing for the Thunder.

13. Charlotte Hornets
Mark Williams
Duke
C
Age: 20.4

The Hornets have been seeking a legitimate rim-protecting, lob-catching center to pair with LaMelo Ball from the moment they drafted the pick-and-roll maestro, and could very well be attracted to Williams, with whom they'll be very familiar from down the road in Durham. Williams led college basketball in dunks this season, won ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors and made considerable progress in his sophomore season.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers
Malaki Branham
Ohio State
SG
Age: 19.0

The Cavs will be looking to add firepower on the wing this offseason, both in free agency and in the draft. Branham's frame, length, scoring instincts and shot-making prowess off the dribble (44%) and with his feet set (43%) make his game look seamlessly translatable for what the NBA is looking for at his position. He started the season slowly but looked like one of the most talented perimeter players in the country down the stretch, carrying Ohio State offensively, and in a highly efficient manner.

15. Charlotte Hornets (via Pelicans)
Ochai Agbaji
Kansas
SF
Age: 22.0

While the frontcourt will surely be an area for improvement this offseason, adding depth on the wing should also be a priority, as starting small forward Gordon Hayward is often injured and backup Kelly Oubre Jr. is entering the final season of his contract. Enter Agbaji, one of the best shooters in the draft who looks like a relatively plug-and-play, 3-and-D prospect who comes off a national championship in which he won the Final Four's Most Outstanding Player award. The fact that he's already 22 may make him even more attractive to the Hornets, who are clearly looking for immediate results after surprisingly firing head coach James Borrego.

16. Atlanta Hawks
TyTy Washington Jr.
Kentucky
PG/SG
Age: 20.4

The Hawks are one of the deeper teams in the NBA on paper and it may not be easy for any rookie to crack their rotation next season. Finding a guard who can both run the team when Trae Young is taking a breather, and also bring enough size and length to play alongside him when sliding up wing players Kevin Huerter and De'Andre Hunter to the frontcourt, could be attractive. Washington is effective with or without the ball, knows how to play pick-and-roll and is a strong perimeter shooter, while also being capable of playing in many different lineup configurations.

17. Houston Rockets
Tari Eason
LSU
PF
Age: 21.0

The Rockets are early in their rebuilding and will likely be looking to take swings on talent and upside, as they don't appear to be particularly close to contention. Eason is one of the most explosive and productive players in the draft, putting consistent pressure on opposing defenses with his quick first step, physicality and insatiable intensity, characteristics that allow him to live at the free throw line. These same traits helped make him one of the most versatile defenders in the college game, a magnet for steals, blocks and rebounds who flew all over the floor in LSU's suffocating press while rotating from guarding point guards to big men.

18. Chicago Bulls
Jeremy Sochan
Baylor
PF
Age: 18.9

The Bulls aren't particularly deep in the frontcourt, making this a potential position of need the team will look to address this offseason. Sochan brings some different dimensions for a team that could be attracted to his ability to defend all over the floor, pass the ball effectively and slide up or down positions depending on the matchup. He has plenty of upside to grow into at 18 years old.

19. Minnesota Timberwolves
Nikola Jovic
Mega Mozzart
SF
Age: 18.9

After an encouraging season, the Timberwolves might look to bolster their depth at the forward spots with another dynamic shooter who doesn't need the ball, can facilitate for others and has upside to grow into long-term. Enter Jovic, who has excellent size at 6-10, a strong feel for the game and could slide nicely in between Jalen McDaniels and Jarred Vanderbilt while not detracting from the Timberwolves' core of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns.

20. San Antonio Spurs (via Raptors)
Kennedy Chandler
Tennessee
PG
Age: 19.6

With three first-round picks at their disposal and a roster that is far from settled, the Spurs can afford to take a long view in selecting the best player available regardless of positional fit. After a rocky start, Chandler emerged as one of the premier point guards in the college game in the second half of the season, showing blazing speed, dynamic ballhandling and passing ability, and an increasingly consistent pull-up jumper. His measurements (6-foot-1, 171 pounds with a 6-5½ wingspan) are what might keep him out of the lottery position his talent suggests, but didn't prevent him from playing outstanding defense and leading the SEC in steals. The fact that he proved capable of playing off the ball in two- and three-guard lineups should be attractive as well.

21. Denver Nuggets
MarJon Beauchamp
G League Ignite
SG/SF
Age: 21.5

With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back in the fold next season alongside MVP Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon, adding quality depth on the wing looks like a priority for the Nuggets, who cycled through different options all season at this position. Beauchamp's ability to defend multiple positions, score without having plays called for him and do the dirty work to help a team win games could be attractive, as well as the fact that he's already 21 years old and has pro experience under his belt.

22. Memphis Grizzlies (via Jazz)
Blake Wesley
Notre Dame
SG
Age: 19.1

The Grizzlies have drafted extremely well and now have a stacked roster of contributors to choose from, giving them the flexibility to draft more of a long-term prospect. Wesley is a physically gifted, instinctual scorer who excels in the open court and creating off the dribble. His youth and tools give him plenty of upside to grow into on both ends of the floor, which could very well be attractive to a team such as Memphis at this stage of the draft.

23. Brooklyn Nets (via 76ers; Nets can defer to 2023)
Walker Kessler
Auburn
C
Age: 20.7

With all of the Nets' center options on expiring contracts, it would certainly make sense to look to this position as an option to add a young prospect on a rookie-scale deal. Kessler was the best defender in college basketball this season, a force as a rim protector who also brings upside as a pick-and-roll finisher and even as a perimeter shooter.

24. Milwaukee Bucks
E.J. Liddell
Ohio State
PF
Age: 21.3

The Bucks are in win-now mode and would be well-served adding a player who can step in and contribute immediately, as they don't have a great deal of flexibility with their salary-cap situation. With several frontcourt players on expiring contracts or entering their final seasons, adding an All-American big man such as Liddell could be attractive. Liddell is a solid rim protector who can switch on the perimeter and improved his shooting significantly as a junior, giving him a high floor as a prospect. His productivity and toughness make him a solid option at this stage of the draft.

25. San Antonio Spurs (via Celtics)
Kendall Brown
Baylor
SF
Age: 19.0

In this scenario, the Spurs drafted backcourt players in the lottery and with the 20th pick, so adding a combo forward in the late first round could make sense, especially since Brown is among the most explosive players in the draft and brings significant upside to grow into at just 18 years old. Finding more confidence and consistency in his jump shot, which Brown could very well locate in the Spurs' vaunted player development program, and discipline defensively -- a trademark of Gregg Popovich teams -- would make him a major steal at this stage of the draft.

26. Dallas Mavericks
Jaden Hardy
G League Ignite
SG
Age: 19.8

Keeping defenses honest from loading up on Luka Doncic will always be a priority, something Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie have both done very effectively this season. With Brunson entering unrestricted free agency, adding another sparkplug combo guard such as Hardy could be attractive. Hardy entered the year as a potential top-five pick and still has plenty of upside to tap into as a shot-making, instinctual scorer who is still only 19.

27. Miami Heat
Trevor Keels
Duke
PG/SG
Age: 18.7

Few teams have been as successful drafting in the first round as the Heat have over the past few years. The team seems to prioritize finding young players who fit their mentality culturally and have room to grow in their strong player development infrastructure. Keels is one of the youngest prospects in the draft and brings the type of toughness, feel for the game and winning spirit the organization covets. Improving his body and finding more consistency as a perimeter shooter are priorities for Keels moving forward, something he could elect to try to do with another year in college, potentially.

28. Golden State Warriors
Christian Braun
Kansas
SG/SF
Age: 21.0

The Warriors' luxury tax situation makes it imperative they find contributors on cheap rookie-scale contracts, something they've proved capable of doing with several shrewd picks. Braun looks like a plug-and-play wing who brings lockdown defense, passing ability, excellent rebounding and is a career 38% 3-point shooter in college. His lack of ballhandling and a slow release on his jumper lowers his ceiling somewhat, but Braun is exactly the type of role-playing, two-way wing many NBA teams are actively seeking these days.

29. Memphis Grizzlies
Bryce McGowens
Nebraska
SG
Age: 19.5

The Grizzlies have proved to be one of the shrewdest teams in the NBA the past few years in terms of using their draft capital. With a loaded roster, it remains to be seen how attractive adding another two first-round picks will be, but it wouldn't be surprising to see the team swing for the fences with a high-upside prospect to see if it can uncover another draft-day steal. McGowens is one of the most talented wing prospects in this class long-term, a fluid scorer who needs time to build his frame and improve his defensive intensity, but he has intriguing tools that are hard to come by from a talent perspective.

30. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Suns)
Caleb Houstan
Michigan
SF
Age: 19.3

The Thunder have precious few roster spots at their disposal and four draft picks (three first-rounders), meaning there is a decent chance they won't be making this selection ultimately. One of the big mysteries surrounding the 2022 NBA draft will be where Caleb Houstan, a onetime projected top-10 pick, ends up. Houstan declined his invite to the NBA combine, indicating there might be something to the rumors of a first-round promise, or that Houstan has a landing spot he's comfortable with. Houstan's positional size, defensive awareness and perimeter shooting gives him a high floor as a prospect, despite his disappointing freshman season at Michigan.

Second round
31. Pacers (via Rockets)

Patrick Baldwin Jr. | Milwaukee | SF/PF | Age: 19.4

32. Magic

David Roddy | Colorado St | PF | Age: 21.1

33. Raptors (via Pistons)

Terquavion Smith | NC State | SG | Age: 19.3

34. Thunder

Ismael Kamagate | Paris | C | Age: 21.3

35. Magic (via Pacers)

Hugo Besson | NZ Breakers | PG/SG | Age: 21.0

36. Trail Blazers

Wendell Moore Jr. | Duke | SF | Age: 20.6

37. Kings

Leonard Miller | Fort Erie International Academy | SF/PF | Age: 18.4

38. Spurs (via Lakers)

Jake LaRavia | Wake Forest | PF | Age: 20.5

39. Cavaliers (via Spurs)

Dalen Terry | Arizona | PG/SG | Age: 19.8

40. Timberwolves (via Wizards)

Christian Koloko | Arizona | C | Age: 21.8

41. Pelicans

Khalifa Diop | Gran Canaria | C | Age: 20.3

42. Knicks

Justin Lewis | Marquette | SF/PF | Age: 20.0

43. Clippers

Jalen Williams | Santa Clara | SF | Age: 21.0

44. Hawks

Jean Montero | Overtime Elite | PG/SG | Age: 18.8

45. Hornets

Max Christie | Michigan State | SG | Age: 19.2

46. Pistons (via Nets)

Jaylin Williams | Arkansas | C | Age: 19.8

47. Pelicans (via Cavaliers)

Josh Minott | Memphis | PF | Age: 19.4

48. Timberwolves

JD Davison | Alabama | PG | Age: 19.6

49. Kings (from Bulls)

Keon Ellis | Alabama | SG/SF | Age: 22.3

50. Timberwolves (from Nuggets)

Trevion Williams | Purdue | C | Age: 21.6

51. Warriors

Andrew Nembhard | Gonzaga | PG | Age: 22.3

52. Pelicans (via Jazz)

Matteo Spagnolo | Cremona | PG | Age: 19.3

53. Celtics

Gabriele Procida | Fortitudo Bologna | SG | Age: 19.9

54. Wizards (via Mavericks)

Alondes Williams | Wake Forest | PG/SG | Age: 22.8

55. Warriors

Peyton Watson | UCLA | SF/PF | Age: 19.6

56. Cavaliers (via Heat)

Yannick Nzosa | Unicaja Malaga | C | Age: 18.4

57. Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)

Harrison Ingram | Stanford | SF/PF | Age: 19.4

58. Pacers (via Suns)

Dominick Barlow | Overtime Elite | PF/C | Age: 18.9
 
noskey said:
This is selling me on him? :lol: 😅🔫
Click to expand...

If you want the upside take...he has a ton of defensive versatility and some slight playmaking ability. I'd go for a player w/ a higher upside if I were Portland.

The Ringer has him mocked to the Wizards currently and I would jump from the Monument if that were to really happen. Not because I don't like him...but because he's extremely duplicative of Deni who's on the clock himself.
 
Quick mock:
1. Orlando - Jabari Smith Jr.
2. Oklahoma City - Chet Holmgren
3. Houston - Paolo Banchero
4. Sacramento - Keegan Murray
5. Detroit - Jaden Ivey
6. Indiana - Shaedon Sharpe
7. Portland - AJ Griffin
8. New Orleans - Benedict Mathurin
9. San Antonio - Jalen Duren
10. Washington - Johnny Davis
11. New York - Dyson Daniels
12. Oklahoma City - Jeremy Sochan
13. Charlotte - Mark Williams
14. Cleveland - Malaki Branham
15. Charlotte - Tari Eason
16. Atlanta - Ousmane Dieng
17. Houston - TyTy Washington
18. Chicago - Walker Kessler
19. Minnesota - EJ Liddell
20. San Antonio - Nikola Jović
21. Denver - Ochai Agbaji
22. Memphis - Bryce McGowens
23. Brooklyn - MarJon Beauchamp
24. Milwaukee - Christian Braun
25. San Antonio - Kendall Brown
26. Dallas - Wendell Moore Jr.
27. Miami - Caleb Houston
28. Golden State - Dalen Terry
29. Memphis - Patrick Baldwin Jr.
30. Oklahoma City - Jaden Hardy

I think if they could Sacramento (forward), Portland (forward) and Washington (point guard) would trade their picks for proven help.
 
Random, but I'd really like to see the Cavs take Branham at 14. If it works out fills a massive need and also sells a ton of tickets(hometown kid)
 
Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s draft stock not game, reminds me of Harry Giles draft stock.
 
jpzx said:
Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s draft stock not game, reminds me of Harry Giles draft stock.
Click to expand...
Not quite as heralded (RSCI #24), but Ray McCallum Jr went to play for his dad at Detroit Mercy instead of a high D1 like UCLA, Zona, Florida.
 
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Hollinger: My top 20 players for the 2022 NBA Draft, plus three sleeper shooting guards

Are you watching the playoffs?

Are you watching them and thinking about what they might mean for this year’s draft?

We’re in a little bit of a weird place, right? The consensus top three players are fours and fives, but all the value is in big wings. Unlike a year ago, there isn’t an easy pathway to sorting out the top of the draft based on positional value. That ballhandling, playmaking 6-7 wing every team craves isn’t out there at the top of this draft. Maybe a Cade Cunningham or Scottie Barnes is hiding in the weeds, but if so, it’s much less obvious this time around.

Similarly, we have some good bigs in this draft, but we don’t have an Evan Mobley-type, whose switchability is so obvious that it would allay concerns about the decreasing value of centers in the postseason. Conversely, in a world where either having a P.J. Tucker-type body or just being a 6-6 guy who doesn’t suck has exponentially more value in the games that matter most, a lot of energy must necessarily tilt toward finding those types of players in the draft.

The top three players in this draft are bigs, with one being a true rim-protecting five. At least two other traditional centers are on every lottery board, and if you made a consensus mock draft right now, you’d see a generous sprinkling of players shorter than 6-5 as well. With centers in particular, we run into issues of diminishing returns. You can play one center, but never more; meanwhile, you can play as many 6-7 guys as you want in today’s NBA, provided at least one of them can dribble.

Despite that, teams continue to overvalue taking big centers at the top of the draft. We’ve had 18 centers drafted in the top six picks since 2002; only three of them have played in an All-Star Game, and in the case of Chris Kaman, we’re defining this term extremely broadly. Should Mobley and Deandre Ayton eventually make it, we’ll be at five. Woohoo.

Mobley proves the exception to the rule — a 7-foot center who plays as a perimeter player, particularly on defense. Meanwhile the best offensive center in the league (Nikola Jokić) was picked 46th, the best defensive center (Rudy Gobert) was picked 27th, and this year’s other 7-foot All-Stars (Jarrett Allen and Joel Embiid) were picked 22nd and third respectively.

On the flip side, we’ve had a perimeter All-Star selected in the top five of every draft since 2010, if we assume one of Cunningham or Barnes breaks through soon. And we’re on a stretch of 20 straight drafts in the top six. A couple of them stretch the definition of “All-Star” a bit (Andrew Wiggins was voted in, and Devin Harris and D’Angelo Russell each made it once), but most were legit.

Overall, we’re talking about 27 All-Star perimeter players from 19 drafts, and 23 of them were no-doubt-about-it, All-Star-caliber players. Despite the zest for size at the top of the draft, most of these stars weren’t that big; only Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram were taller than 6-7.

So … do you want to pick from the bin that provided 27 All-Stars or the bin that gave us three?

I bring this up for two fairly obvious reasons. First, I think teams are still guilty of overdrafting centers — James Wiseman, Mo Bamba, Dragan Bender and Jahlil Okafor would be recent examples. Second, the consensus top three players in this particular class are all bigs, with perhaps the most highly touted one a 7-1 center.

So here’s the question … is Chet Holmgren (or Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero) such an advantage at their positions that you’d prefer taking them to the chance of getting an All-Star perimeter player?

The flip side of this, of course, is what All-Star perimeter player? Have you been scouting some other NCAA, Hollinger? Teams would feel better about following my big-shunning strategy if there were wart-free wing options. This is, perhaps, not that kind of draft. Particularly in that sweet spot around 6-6 or 6-7, the talent pool is not safe for diving.

Wait, it gets worse. Two other issues underlie this year’s draft. First, this is one of the worst international draft classes in memory. Only two players have a realistic chance of going in the top 20, and neither played well even in relatively weak overseas leagues. Second, there is an absolutely staggering number of meh shooting guards for teams to sort through. We may set some kind of record for 6-4 guys who end up in France; several of them have been getting lottery buzz, for some reason, but I don’t have more than a couple in my top 20.

Nonetheless, teams must press on with the task of selecting the best talent and determining the best positional fits. And there is actually talent in this draft; it was harder to winnow my list down to 20 or so than I expected. It’s just hiding in some different places than you might have originally expected.

As is my recent pattern, I’m revealing my top 23 (with three sleepers included!) just after Tuesday night’s lottery and saving the rest of my top 75 for June, when we know for sure who is staying in the draft.

Why 20? Historically, there are about 20 players who end up mattering from each draft. Limiting myself this way forces me to think harder about who that 20 might be. I don’t use that as a hard and fast rule if I really love or hate the draft, but this year I have exactly 20, plus my three favorites from the shooting guard blahscape tacked on the end.

Here’s how my board looks:

TIER 1: The two biggest fish in a medium-size pond

1. Jabari Smith Jr. | 6-10 freshman |PF | Auburn

Smith is an unusual player for a top overall pick because he didn’t always dominate games athletically. He had unusually low rates of rebounds, blocks and steals for a prospect of this caliber and shot just 43.9 percent on 2s in SEC games. (Reminder: I often rely on stats in conference games because they winnow out the early-season joke games against St. Leo’s and Incarnate Word.)

So what’s the case for Smith? Let’s start with his jumper, which is just smooth as butter. Smith might have the best shooting form of any prospect I’ve evaluated since Michael Porter Jr. launching perfect parabolas toward the rim and having the footwork to get into this stroke during live play. At a legit 6-10, Smith can rise over anybody and launch, providing something of an offensive cheat code that should set up the rest of his game as he develops.

Meanwhile, his athletic gifts are also pretty significant. Some of his defensive clips had me cackling, yelling, “Noooooo don’t do it!” at my monitor while some rando college guard decided to try his luck isoing Smith off the dribble.


Smith can slide his feet like a guard, plus his length allows him to play a half step farther off dribblers and cut off any driving angles. He sometimes gives a little too much cushion and will need to play closer in the pros, but his switchability at the pro level seems rock solid. He also rarely gets faked off his feet, a bugaboo for a lot of bigs who otherwise can hold up on switches. Quick, hard changes of direction occasionally leave him a step behind, but he also has the “catch-up” ability to get back in the play and block shots from behind.

With his body still filling out, Smith has a low post defense that’s maybe not quite as clinical. Opponents could duck in and get position, especially when Walker Kessler was off the floor and Smith had to play the five, and he didn’t contest their shots as aggressively as you might hope. Adding some muscle obviously will help here, but I’d be leery of playing him much at the five in the NBA until he adds more lower body strength.

Finally, there’s the age issue. With a May 2003 birthdate, Smith is six months younger than Banchero and a full year younger than Holmgren. He’s physically young too, as he’s still pretty clearly growing into his body. In a draft without a surefire future All-Star, he seems the one most likely to earn that honor.

2. Paolo Banchero | 6-10 freshman | PF | Duke

Prospect-wise, Banchero isn’t perfect. He’s not an elite athlete or a great defender, his arms are a bit short for a big, and his shooting stroke could stand to be more consistent (33.8 percent from 3 and 72.9 percent from the line). He’s a bit on the older side for a one-and-done, and his rates of steals and blocks are pretty sad for a lottery prospect.

OK, now that I’m done whining … Banchero is also an attacking, off-the-dribble shot creator at 6-10, and he’s not some shot-hunting pig either. He averaged an eye-opening 6.3 assists per 100 possessions last season, often acting as a de facto point guard for a Duke team that didn’t have a true lead guard. It’s pretty easy to envision a world in which he’s his team’s best or second-best offensive option, particularly if his line-drive outside shot gets a little more air under it and a big more consistency.

Defensively, Banchero’s lack of length gives him issues contesting shots and protecting the rim, which might limit his utility as a small-ball five. Otherwise, I thought his tape was pretty good. His clips in isolation defense show a guy who is comfortable sliding his feet out on the perimeter, and he didn’t default to giving yards of space and allowing easy pull-up 3s the way some bigs do. In his best moments, he could play close enough to remove any pull-ups at all, like this:


Banchero seems to change direction pretty well, but in straight-line speed challenges he is vulnerable; little fast guys give him problems, but he can defend anyone two through four on the perimeter pretty capably.

Overall, he’s a fairly safe bet as a high-production four, one with plus offense and who can get to the point of being solid defensively.

TIER II: High ceilings, but more speculative

3. Jaden Ivey | 6-4 sophomore | SG | Purdue

Ivey is the one player in this draft who is most reminiscent of Ja Morant, with a blast-off first step that sends him rocketing toward the rim. It should be even more effective in the open space of the NBA versus a Purdue approach that was heavily geared toward entering the ball to its two behemoth post players.

Alas, the Morant comparisons break down once we get into the decision-making realm. Ivey barely averaged more assists than turnovers in Big Ten play; his good clips are ridiculous, but there is a lot of head-scratching chaff to work through before you get to that wheat. His shooting is also a question mark, with a below-the-shoulder set shot similar to Morant’s that yielded 32.2 percent from 3 and 73.98 percent from the line in his two years with the Boilermakers. Put simply, Ivey is going to be an offensive skill-development challenge for whatever team picks him, but the upside reward is an All-Star-caliber shot creator from the guard spot.

Defensively it’s a similar story. The physical toolset is there, but the application of those tools is a bit inconsistent. Ivey can get caught upright and blown by at times but doesn’t concede space and can still stay with dribblers. Opponents rarely went at him in isolation, perhaps because of the giant dude waiting in the paint behind him, but also because it didn’t look profitable the few times opponents tried. Ivey can slide his feet and explodes off the floor to challenge shots, sometimes surprising shooters who thought they had themselves a nice pull-up.

He needs the defensive output to be more consistent, especially if he’s juggling a prominent offensive role at the same time. The tape from his freshman year is actually even better, perhaps because less was being asked of him at the other end.

Overall, this is an eye-test call. Ivey’s college track record is wartier than you’d prefer for a pick this high, especially from a sophomore, but nobody else in this draft is in Ivey’s league as an off-the-dribble creative force.

4. Chet Holmgren | 7-1 freshman | C | Gonzaga

A lot of the concerns about Holmgren have to deal with his frame. At 7-1 and just 195 pounds, will he be more prone to injuries? Will he hold up to the pounding of a routine NBA game multiplied by 82? The visual is hard to ignore — he looks like somebody might break him in half — but I’m wondering if these worries are missing the real issue. Career-length issues for bigs are usually driven by lower extremity injuries; the fact that Holmgren’s light build puts less strain on his knees and ankles could end up being a major positive for his long-term durability.

The real thing to wonder about with Holmgren is whether drafting a 7-1 center in the top five makes any sense unless he’s basically guaranteed to play in the All-Star game. Holmgren definitely has some huge positives — few bigs have shown as much juice off the dribble at a young age, his 3-point shot is already reliable enough to be a passable long-range floor spacer (39.0 percent from 3 as a freshman), and he finishes everything around the basket (73.7 percent on 2s).

Holmgren also controls the paint like few others, with an absurd 12.6 percent block rate and 28.7 percent Defensive Rebound Rate. NBA teams still are skittish about playing zone, but Holmgren could be an awesome zone defender.

Three issues prevent him from ranking higher here. First, the skinny body really limits his ability to have any kind of post game. There is virtually no cost to switching a guard on him. He can shoot and handle a bit, but offensively he’s trending toward Myles Turner.

Second, nobody talks about this, but Holmgren is a year older than most freshmen, with a May 2002 birthdate. For comparison, the next player on my board, Bennedict Mathurin, has played two years at Arizona but is a month younger than Holmgren.

Lastly, the defensive tape is perhaps not quite as awesome as the stats might make you believe, particularly in switch situations. The Synergy stats say he performed well against isolations, but several of those plays featured missed bunnies at the rim, and the sample is small enough that it matters. Holmgren typically gave up a driving lane to one side and then relied on his length to contest at the summit, but often didn’t get there in time.

Occasionally, it went worse than that, particularly against pro-caliber guards. Here Santa Clara’s Jalen Williams (an underrated prospect!) just flat-out drops him:


Care to see the movie again?


Holmgren held up much better when bigs tried to take him off the dribble in closer quarters; there just isn’t enough room to get away from his arms. Opponents will see his body and think they can mash him in the paint, but that is likely to be a horrible mistake that ends badly. His tentacles swallow up everything in the paint, and he could very well lead the league in blocks every year.

Because of that, and the talent gradient we’re about to hit, this is probably the best slot for Holmgren. I’m not a huge fan of drafting centers, as you can tell, but the risk-reward equation turns more positive after the first three names are off the board.

TIER III: Reliably solid wings

5. Bennedict Mathurin | 6-6 sophomore | SF | Arizona

One can argue it’s a reach to take Mathurin at No. 5, since it’s unlikely he’ll ever be the best player on his team. But because of his positional value and skill set, even his mid-tier scenarios make him a $20 million player in today’s NBA. Few players have more obvious 3-and-D utility than Mathurin, an athletic 6-6 Canadian of Haitian extraction who came through the NBA’s development academy in Mexico City. He’s still evolving into his game, but in two years at Arizona he shot 38.7 percent from 3 and 78.9 percent from the line.

Mathurin still needs to tighten his handle and improve his feel, factors that could limit him from moving beyond a 3-and-D role at the next level, but his size and plus athleticism give him outs even if he never turns into a ballhandling wizard. Additionally, he doubled his assist rate as a sophomore at Arizona, showing visible progress as an on-ball creator.

Defensively, Mathurin might be more “solid” than true stopper. He’ll get into the ball but is not quite as fluid laterally as you might hope. He also can sit up in his stance at times, permitting blow-bys. More often, he’s able to stay solid and use his size and length to contest late, but he’s rarely an active disruptor on that end.

6. Shaedon Sharpe | 6-6 freshman | SG/SF | Kentucky

Teams have a lot of questions about Sharpe, questions that aren’t going to get answered by seeing him work out against a chair in Chicago at the combine. Why didn’t he play at all for Kentucky this year? How much did that set him back?

While teams comb through background parts and go back through his EYBL tape, the inevitably of the upside scenarios is what’s likely to see him chosen high. He could fail spectacularly, but the bar for this player archetype is pretty low as far as eventual success goes. Sharpe is 6-6 with a 6-11 wingspan and can really shoot; watching him work out on the floor before Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament game, I found it pretty clear he’ll be a viable NBA floor spacer from Day 1.

He’s also athletic enough that he was ranked as the top prospect in the Class of 2023 before reclassifying. How many guys like that, who also had elite shooting ability, have failed? Yes, there are questions about his feel and other, secondary lines of inquiry given that nobody has seen him play top-drawer competition. If he were a center or point guard, I’d have him several places lower. But a 6-6 wing who can shoot? Even if he “fails” in terms of achieving stardom, that still becomes a decent value proposition.

7. Keegan Murray | 6-8 sophomore | SF/PF | Iowa

Murray is probably the most head-scratching player in this draft. On the one hand, he’s a 6-8 forward who put up video-game stats in the Big Ten. Don’t overthink this, right? But on the other hand, he was a much older player (turning 22 in August, he’s the second-oldest player on my list today), and his tape isn’t quite as alluring as his stats. Murray is neither a high-wire athlete nor a knockdown shooter. He’s fine and all — 37.3 percent from 3 and 74.9 percent from the line in two years at Iowa — but it’s his all-around wiles as a scorer that provide his real value.

It’s fair to question how much daylight that part of his game will receive at the NBA level, because he doesn’t create easy separation and isn’t a great distributor.

Defensively, it’s more of the same. His size and length help him get hands on balls, but he’s not some elite stopper out there. He offers some secondary rim protection but didn’t always show great awareness, and his team’s defense was consistently its undoing. Murray has long arms and can slide his feet on the ball, so he should hold up decently enough against wings and fours.

What I get back to is that we’ve seen this movie before with guys like T.J. Warren and Cedric Ceballos — smooth forwards who lacked top-drawer athleticism but had crazy feel for scoring and finding buckets in the flow of the game. The league undervalues guys like this sometimes because they don’t have an easy box to slide into, but I’m pretty confident Murray can be a rotation forward at worst, and the upside is a 20-point scorer.

TIER IV: Let’s get crazy
Here’s where I suspect my draft board deviates pretty radically from the consensus. Partly, this is because the late lottery this year appears a bit soft in terms of surefire NBA talent, and partly, this is because I value certain things more than others. The one accelerated the other: If the talent curve is relatively flat, stylistic preferences inevitably matter more.

With that said, fasten your seat belts…

8. Jeremy Sochan | 6-9 freshman | PF | Baylor

A Polish citizen who grew up mostly in England, Sochan offers an alluring combination of present value and long-term upside as a high-energy forward with some shot-creation possibilities. Although he’s 6-9, Sochan can handle the ball and get to the cup with long strides and loosey-goosey quickness. He can make some decent reads as a passer, and he shot 60.7 percent inside the arc in Big 12 games. His shooting is more speculation but wasn’t as bad as the percentages make it seem (29.6 percent from 3, 58.9 percent from the line). His form needs work, but it’s not broken.

Sochan is better east and west than vertically; he’s quick, but he doesn’t pop off the floor. Relative to a player like Banchero, he offers more potential switchability and could even do work as a small-ball five as his body fills out. His tape against guards is very good, playing close enough that they can’t just walk into pull-ups, even contested ones, while still mostly holding his own when they tested his speed. Sochan leaves his feet too willingly and good crossovers sometimes leave him wobbly. He also had problems when dribblers got into his body, something that likely will become less problematic with more strength and experience.

Overall, we’re in a different area now in terms of risk-reward proposition. It’s possible Sochan is never anything more than an energy backup, but his upside scenarios are so tempting that he’s worth grabbing once my top seven names are off the board.

9. Dyson Daniels | 6-6 shooting guard | G League Elite

We’re getting into a type here in the late lottery: Guys with poor left-tail outcomes because of their shooting, but enough on the right tail to make them worth pursuing regardless. Daniels isn’t a freak athlete, shot 52.5 percent from the line and 27.3 percent from 3 in the G League and needs an hour and a half to uncork his outside shot.

I’m a big fan anyway. Few players I saw this year were more obviously about the right things than Daniels; even as his teammates with Elite did whatever the hell it was they were doing, he was very consciously trying to play the right way, hit the open man and compete on defense. He guarded every opponent’s best player and was good at it, with size, competitiveness and anticipation for steals. He has a point guard’s handle and is a plus passer. While he isn’t an above-the-rim athlete, he’s able to finish in transition and draw fouls in the lane.

An Australian who is the same age as this year’s one-and-dones, Daniels came away with a statistical projection from his G League season that should be pretty positive: He averaged nearly two assists for every turnover, shot 54.9 percent inside the arc, had an 11.0 percent rebound rate from the guard spot and had high rates of steals and blocks. Some scouts I talked to compare him to Memphis’ Kyle Anderson in terms of an iffy shooter who can impact the game despite not being an elite athlete, but Daniels has more high-end outcomes than that because there is still time for his shot to come around.

10. Josh Minott | 6-8 freshman | SF/PF | Memphis

Jalen Duren and, to a lesser extent, Emoni Bates got a lot of the attention on Memphis this year, while Minott saw his role fluctuate wildly, and he was hardly playing by the end of the year. Minott is also a bad shooter (2 of 14 on 3s in 2021-22) and will be 19 1/2 on draft day, making him a bit old for a freshman.

And yet … the analytics on Minott are really impressive, with a sky-high steal rate of a big forward (3.6 per 100 possessions in AAC play), a positive assist-turnover rate and a 14.4 percent rebound rate despite often paying next to a lottery center. History says it would be folly to ignore a player who passes this deftly and gets his hand on this many balls at the defensive end. Even the shooting has some promise — he hit 75.4 percent from the line. It’s not like he was an empty offensive force either, scoring a very respectable 25.3 points per 100 possessions. He didn’t play much, but when he did, he was quite effective.


Defensively, Minott can be tight-hipped and slow with his first slide, and a bit over-reliant on using his hands to compensate for it. He also picks up a lot of fouls that way, part of his insane foul rate (6.2 per 100 possessions).

That said, Minott probably plays closer to the dribbler of any other player I saw in this size class, which is notable — players tell on themselves by how much cushion they give the dribbler. Minott has tremendous hands and long arms and legs; he uses the former to flick the ball from unsuspecting dribblers, and the latter to make up ground if he’s initially beat. Minott goes for the ball a bit too often, a high-risk strategy that can leave an open downhill run if it fails, and because he’s thin and has a high center of gravity, he can pick up fouls when opponents get into his body or spin off him.

11. Blake Wesley | 6-5 freshman | SG | Notre Dame

This is purely an upside play — there’s a chance Wesley ends up being terrible if his shooting and finishing don’t progress. It’s still worth taking Wesley here because his first-step quickness and lateral mobility provide a framework for some elite two-way outcomes … if he can just figure out how to shoot and make a layup. In this draft class, only Ivey can surpass Wesley’s explosiveness getting downhill to the rim, something that should be a much greater weapon at the NBA level.

Wesley’s offensive stats from his one season are a tad underwhelming. While he scored in volume (29.8 points per 100 possessions), he shot 47.1 percent from the arc, 30.3 percent on 3s and 65.7 percent from the line and barely had more assists than turnovers. Yikes. He’ll benefit from the more open space of the NBA floor, but there’s a lot to clean up here.

Where I feel better about Wesley is on the defensive end. He can move his feet laterally, contest shots and had an impressive steal rate (2.8 thefts per 100 possessions). You’d like to see him get into the ball a little bit more on the perimeter and concede fewer pull-ups, but he’s long and bouncy enough to bother players when they rise up. Bizarrely, he only blocked two shots all season — another sign he may be leaving some money on the table at that end.

As a result, I see two outs for success here: first as a downhill shot creator and second as a wing defensive stopper. Hit on both, and you’ve really got something. I initially had Wesley ranked lower but comparing his best-case scenarios with the less intriguing upside scenarios that follow, I had to move him up the list even if there’s a decent chance he bombs because of his offense.

Tier V: Relatively safer and less spectacular

12. Jalen Duren | 6-11 freshman | C | Memphis

How much do you value having a decent center with some upside? I like Duren quite a bit but struggled with where to place him on my board because he’s a one-position player at the least valuable position, and chances are he’ll never stretch his game out to the 3-point line.

I’m extremely confident Duren can be a rotation center for a decade; how far beyond that he can get is a very open question. Is there enough rim running and shot blocking to be a legit starter? You wouldn’t trade a lottery pick for a backup five, so the answer to this has to at least be a “maybe” to rank him here.

Nonetheless, Duren packs some real positives. He was an impactful college player even as a young freshman, he has a 7-5 wingspan and a solid enough frame to be a plus defender and rim-runner, and he made some notably good passes for a player of this ilk. He disappointed a bit as a rim protector, however; 3.9 blocks per 100 in the American Conference is fine but not exactly Holmgren territory, and he doesn’t explode off the floor on shot challenges the way you might like from an interior presence.

Memphis also switched him a lot and was clearly very comfortable with him defending on the perimeter, even against very small guards. I’d describe his feet as more “good” than “great;” he can be a little slow at times and at others had to give up excessive cushion to feel like he could keep in front. The biggest barrier for him is just that the bar for “switchable big” in the NBA is getting so darned high, especially as we get deeper into the postseason. He’s good enough to get there though.

13. A.J. Griffin | 6-6 freshman | SG | Duke

Griffin is 6-6 with a 7-foot wingspan and shot 44.7 percent from 3 on relatively high volume last year, which will be the press release summary from the team that picks him. That might have you thinking “3-and-D!” But let’s stop the presses on the D part.

Griffin’s defensive tape is … not good. He may have to play four, even at 6-6, because he has decent strength but his feet are stuck in concrete. He is very slow sliding his feet and reacting to an opponent’s first move and had absolutely no chance checking quick guards.

Going through his tape, I found it one thing to see ACC Player of the Year Alondes Williams cook him on a straight-line drive; when a random dude from Army did the same thing, that’s when the red flags really started flapping in the wind. Griffin’s indicator stats aren’t great either, with a pathetic steal rate for a wing (just 1.1 per 100 possessions in ACC play).

Offensively, he didn’t impress when he put it on the floor, but the threat of his shot does open lanes for him pretty easily and widen his margin for error. Also, did I mention his shooting? Griffin has a low release point but moves to get himself open and can knock down catch-and-shoots from a variety of platforms. I don’t see him being a guy who can come flying off screens locked-and-loaded, but he’s an elite catch-and-shoot threat from Day 1. That gives him value even if he struggles at the other end, and at just 19, there’s at least a shred of hope he can keep improving the defense.

14. TyTy Washington |6-3 freshman | PG | Kentucky

There’s an upside scenario that you have to think about with Washington, which is that John Calipari has a history of making guards look very ordinary, only to see them blow up when they get to the NBA. Devin Booker, Tyler Herro and Tyrese Maxey all come to mind. Is Washington another?

Maybe. He had a really good stretch in midseason before suffering an ankle injury against Florida, showing the ability to run the offense at 6-3, get to floaters and make the right decisions. There was nothing electrifying about it, and his push shot from the perimeter (35.0 percent from 3, 75.0 percent from the line) isn’t wowing anybody either, but he was low-key pretty darn efficient.

Defensively, Washington had a high steal rate and has the awareness to do some neat, subtle things; he’ll tilt his torso and arms diagonally while coming around screens to take away pocket passes, for instance. He’s not a suffocating defender overall, and for some reason seems to move much better to his left than to his right. Maybe it’s random, but he gave up a lot of blow-bys on that side.

All this probably adds more up to a solid third guard than anything special, especially since Washington was unusually old for a freshman and turns 21 in November. (He’s nearly the same age as Duke junior Wendell Moore, for example.)

15. Kendall Brown | 6-8 freshman | SF | Baylor

Brown may not provide enough offensively to be a starting-caliber player, but his odds of having a legit career seem pretty high because he’s 6-8, can pass and run and guard multiple positions. Guys like that fit in somewhere unless they’re complete disasters from the perimeter. In a league where 6-8 forwards who don’t suck become central pieces of the playoff rotation, he will have value.

Brown certainly gives some concern on offense. He shot 34.3 percent from 3 on extremely low volume and 67.3 percent from the line in his one season at Baylor — but his other indicator stats are halfway decent. He shot 63.8 percent inside the arc, scored at a respectable clip and showed halfway decent feel — his mistakes were often trying passes that were just beyond his level, but his feel didn’t seem deficient. In transition, he was good.

Defensively, Brown doesn’t have super long arms but his height and leaping allow him to get great contests on pull-up jump shooters, plus he seems to have pretty good intuition for exactly how much room to give while still being in position to bother the shot. He had a good steal rate with anticipation off the ball, but against dribblers, he isn’t a guy who impacts the ball much; he tries more to stay solid and keep the ball in front, and does a good job of it. Fast guards with enough runway could beat him with straight-line speed, but you’ll live with that from a combo forward.

Finally, Brown is only 19 with a prototype body for an NBA forward, so we shouldn’t dismiss upside scenarios out of hand here. I feel like he’s getting a bit forgotten because he’s no longer a “hot” name, but it’s not crazy to think he could go in the late lottery.

16. Tari Eason | 6-7 sophomore | SF | LSU

I have a sneaking suspicion that Eason’s wildness is going to work against him and cause him to slip in the draft; teams may have trouble sticking a fork into a defined role for him. Eason is a big wing with a solid frame who can guard anything from one to four, a disruptive defender whose rates of “stocks” are almost Matisse Thybulle-esque (4.5 steals and 2.5 blocks per 100 in SEC play, nearly matching what Thybulle did in the Pac 12 at the same age).

Wait, there’s more. He’s also an absurdly good rebounder for his size (15.7 rebound rate in the SEC!) and scored easily and efficiently last season. He shot 56.4 percent inside the arc with a massive free-throw rate, made 80.3 percent from the line and even hit 35.9 percent from 3 despite a funky-looking slingshot release that teams aren’t totally sure will translate to the pros. Did I mention he averaged 39.4 points per 100 possessions and had a 34.5 PER in the SEC?

So why is he down here and not in the top five? Because it’s not clear what he did — basically, putting his head down and burrowing to the rim regardless of the situation — has any utility at the next level. Eason isn’t passing — he had two turnovers for every assist, not to mention about 15 true shot attempts — and a lot of his best moments came in transition. If you don’t believe in the shooting, he may not have a role in a half-court offense; given that the previous season at Cincinnati he shot 24.1 percent from 3 and 57.4 percent from the line, this is a realistic fear.

Defensively, he is really good laterally, definitely in the top tier in this draft class. Even small guards had all kinds of trouble turning the corner against him. He has a tendency to rise up out of his stance at times, which can leave him vulnerable to a good hesi move.

However, the same pattern of overaggression bordering on recklessness that marked his offense also was his undoing on defense. Eason committed a whopping 7.7 fouls per 100 possessions in SEC play and had a particularly bad habit of crash-landing into 3-point shooters while challenging shots.

Finally, Eason is a bit older than some of the other players on this list, which is why I put guys like Brown and Griffin ahead of him.

At this point in the draft though, I think his athleticism has to win out. Eason is clearly an NBA athlete and fits a size profile that is constantly sought throughout the league. If he even gets to the 25th percentile as a half-court offensive player, his transition, rebounding and defense will make him a valuable performer.

17. E.J. Liddell | 6-7 junior | PF | Ohio State

I’m a bit higher on Liddell than most, just because I can’t help thinking that he’s so darn smart that he’s going to figure this out one way or another. Watching him defend against guards is a good example; even though he’s at a speed disadvantage, he plays just close enough to stop them from walking into pull-up jumpers and forces them to dribble into his help.

For instance, here’s Wisconsin Johnny Davis trying to get a pull-up on him:


That IQ translates to other facets, such as his timing for off-ball shot blocks that made him an elite college rim protector despite being 6-7 with average leaping ability. Seemingly every time I watch an Ohio State game, I see Liddell do some random, clever thing that you don’t normally see from college players.

Liddell added the 3-ball to his repertoire this season, knocking down 37.4 percent on decent volume, and has become a very good pull-up shooter. Despite lacking crazy hops and a deceptive handle, he drew a ton of fouls; his strength obviously helps here and should acquit him well against fours and fives at the NBA level.

Overall, you’d like him to be quicker laterally, especially with his first defensive slide, where now he can look stuck in concrete at times, and you question how much of his offensive game translates to the next level. Nonetheless, I’m buying him as a 3-and-D combo forward who can be effective in a variety of lineups.

18. Dalen Terry | 6-7 sophomore | SF | Arizona

Here’s a name you maybe weren’t expecting. Terry is still on the fence about whether to stay in the draft, but I have him rated as a first-rounder if he stays because of his ability to handle the ball, defend multiple positions and … hopefully … shoot? Terry’s stroke isn’t overtly terrible — he made 35.0 percent from 3 on low volume and 68.0 percent from the line across his two seasons at Arizona — but he’ll need to be a more persistent perimeter threat as a pro.

The good news is that tall wings who can handle the ball and defend almost always find themselves in an NBA rotation, even if they aren’t high-wire athletes or electrifying scorers. Terry operated as Arizona’s de facto point guard this year, handing out nearly three assists for every turnover, while on the defensive end he ripped 2.5 steals per 100 possessions. One would have liked to see him play a more prominent and aggressive scoring role; between Mathurin (above) and Arizona’s two quality big men, at times one could forget Terry was on the floor.

The tape shows a defender who is more “good” than “remarkable.” Some of his best stuff came against smaller players, where he could give a bit more cushion with his length but still had the quickness to keep the play in front of him. Against bigger players, he gave the same cushion but couldn’t affect the shot as well, and he shuns physicality a bit because of his skinny frame.

19. Mark Williams | 7-0 sophomore | C | Duke

In a word, thwack! Williams’ 7-7 wingspan makes him the top rim-protection prospect in this draft; Auburn’s Walker Kessler blocked more shots but also got cooked a lot more often, whereas Williams never got out over his skis hunting blocks and forced opponents to play over the top of him.

Those who dared to challenge him at the summit suffered unfortunate outcomes. Kevin McCullar, meet Mark Williams:


Of course, the big question with Williams is what can he do on the offensive end. His 72.7 percent mark from the line offers some optimism that he can make 15-footers consistently, but he rarely posted up and wasn’t a big part of elbow or high post actions.

The biggest reason to be down on Williams, again, is just his position. Even if you feel pretty good about him carving out a 10-year career as a backup center, that’s not enough value to take him in the top 20. His shot blocking, physical tools and short-range shooting touch offer realistic upside as a starter, however, and that would be the selling point for sliding him into my top 20 here.

20. Jake LaRavia | 6-9 junior | PF | Wake Forest

I originally had LaRavia in my “sleepers” section, but so many people have moved him up their draft boards lately that I feel like I’m not even ahead of the average on him anymore.

LaRavia is the oldest player in my top 20, a relative unknown who transferred from Indiana State before the season and then blew up for the Demon Deacons. While his teammate Williams won ACC Player of the Year, I’m more encouraged by the pro prospects of LaRavia.

Defensively, in particular, he shows multi-positional potential. He has size and strength but also had the feet to comfortably stay with guards. His strong lower body and good balance help him pester dribblers without overcommitting or getting pushed off stride. He rarely fouls but has active hands that swiped 2.7 steals per 100 possessions and is able to challenge shots without flying into shooters. Few players I saw on tape were more adept at forcing dribblers to beat them with contested 2s. There may be some quickness limitations that show against NBA athletes, but in the ACC, they switched him against everybody and he aced the test.

LaRavia’s shooting will be another topic of discussion, as he hit 38.4 percent this season but on very low volume. Career marks of 37.1 percent from 3 and 74.3 percent from the line should ease some concerns here. LaRavia checks out in other respects, as he’s a good passer and hit 61.6 percent of his shots inside the arc. Nitpickers will also note he’s not a great rebounder.

TIER VI: My three sleeper shooting guards

21. Ryan Rollins | 6-4 sophomore | SG | Toledo

In a sea of blah shooting guard prospects after Ivey and Wesley, Rollins is the one at which I’d take the first crack. He won’t turn 20 until July and was the best player in the Mid-American Conference, and his weaknesses (3-point shooting, on-ball defense) are the type of things that seem fixable in a development program. With high rates of steals and rebounds, nearly two dimes for every turnover and a 53.6 percent mark inside the arc, he checks a lot of boxes in categories that correlate with pro success.

I originally had him much higher than this, but his defensive tape was a crushing disappointment. As I noted above, players tell on themselves by how far off the ballhandler they play; the more comfortable they are with their own lateral quickness, the closer they guard the ball. (As a human traffic cone back in the day, I perhaps internalized this lesson more than most.)

Rollins concedes acres of space, frequently allowing no-dribble 3s from the triple threat position, and yet had a lot of trouble beating his man to the spot and cutting off penetration. If this was happening in the MAC, one shudders to think what NBA guards might do to him one-on-one. Rollins’ athletic indicators and plus feel makes one think this is fixable, but there’s a chance he’s just so flammable on defense that he can’t stay on the court.

22. Wendell Moore | 6-5 junior | SG | Duke

Moore kind of got lost as scouts focused on Banchero and Williams at Duke, and he played a more limited role on a talented offensive squad. However, he had a good junior year and won’t turn 21 until September, and his ability to pass, defend, make open shots and score in the open court all make him a strong candidate to become a plus role player as a pro.

Moore could likely stand to improve his finishing and overall scoring package inside the 3-point line, but his rates of rebounds, assists and steals all are among the best of any shooting guard prospect this year, and those indicators usually point toward pro success more than scoring averages. Additionally, he shot 41.3 percent from 3 and 81.5 percent from the line and usually guarded the opponent’s best player. The 3-and-D archetype is pretty clearly there, and in a fairly athletic package that might be able to go up another notch with some conditioning gains.

He has enough length and leaping ability to alter shots when he goes up to contest them, and when he did get beat off the dribble, he had a good chase-down gear to block opponents from behind. He can get a little upright, and it looked like he was trying a bit too hard to avoid fouling; changes of direction also sometimes sent him veering into a ditch. It seems he’s more likely to get picked in the second round, but he has starter upside to go with a pretty high floor.

23. Jalen Williams | 6-6 junior | SG | Santa Clara

Scouts I talked to have pretty openly admitted that Williams was underscouted during the season, a classic Bad Geography Guy in the far-flung West Coast Conference. Even if scouts happened to be in the Bay Area, chances are they weren’t driving the extra hour to Santa Clara when so much other scoutable action was at hand. Now that teams are doing their film work, he’s a guy everyone is doubling back to watch.

Williams was one of the best players in a vastly improved WCC this season, a huge, solidly built point guard at 6-6 who is likely to play the wing at the next level. Williams offers a plus secondary ballhandler who can run the offense in a pinch, and if you buy his shooting development (39.6 percent from 3 this year and 80.9 percent from the line), that’s a very helpful weakside offensive player.

Defensively, Williams would likely benefit from a move to the wing. He has size and mostly opted to stay solid against opposing point guards, but he wasn’t capable of pressuring smaller players into mistakes and mostly opted for low-risk containment strategies. He can be a little stiff, and even WCC guards weren’t afraid of taking him on; he might do better sizing up rather than down, as he seemed more comfortable getting into the body of bigger players closer to the rim.

Williams also isn’t a great athlete, so teams would be buying more on size, skill and feel. But as noted above, he had the moves to fake top prospects like Holmgren out of their shoes and is rapidly losing his “sleeper” status as the league does its homework on him.
 
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