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2025 NBA Draft Thread
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2022 NBA draft: Ranking the top 30 prospects based on stats and scouting
Two weeks away from the NBA draft, how do the top prospects and sleepers project to the NBA based on their statistics?
Back during the NCAA tournament in March, I posted initial 2022 draft projections for Division I prospects and members of G League Ignite. Along with updated stats for the full college season, I've since added international prospects -- although just one who played outside the United States features in my top 30 -- as well as a projection for Shaedon Sharpe based on his EYBL performance before reclassifying and spending last season at Kentucky.
We also now have a nearly complete list of who will be part of this year's draft. Although the NBA's deadline to withdraw from the draft isn't until next week, the NCAA's earlier deadline means college prospects headed back to school have already withdrawn. That's led to some shuffling based on where players rank in ESPN's top 100 prospects.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other leagues to an NBA equivalent and then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ranking in the top 100 for the best consensus projection.
For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.
1. Chet Holmgren
Power forward | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 4.4 WARP
There's no change at the very top of my projections, with Holmgren still the top-rated in both the stats-only version and the consensus projections. Holmgren's versatility stands out. He's the first prospect ever in my database to project to block at least 5% of opponent 2-point attempts and take at least 30% of his own shots from 3-point range. Add in projected 59% accuracy on 2-point attempts and Holmgren figures to make a big impact at both ends even if he's not the kind of dominant creator who usually ranks atop draft boards.
2. Jabari Smith
Power forward | Auburn
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.3 WARP
The one minor concern about Smith as a top prospect is his solid but unspectacular efficiency. Smith's projected .545 true shooting percentage as an NBA rookie is weaker than league average (.566). To become the dominant scorer he's got the potential to be, Smith will have to turn more of his long 2-point attempts (he shot 38.5% on 2s outside 17 feet, per Synergy Sports tracking) into 3s, which he made at a 42% clip -- or an effective field-goal percentage of 63% when accounting for the extra point.
3. Keegan Murray
Power forward | Iowa
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.0 WARP
Although Murray is old for a second-year player (he'll turn 22 in August), he was productive enough last season to easily outweigh that. One of the most versatile scorers in college hoops, Murray made 62% of his 2-point attempts and 40% of his 3s. And Murray's length made him a plus shot-blocker for a power forward. Along with Holmgren, Murray is the other player in the top five of both ESPN's top 100 and my stats-only projections.
4. AJ Griffin
Forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 2.7 WARP
Given his father (longtime NBA role player Adrian Griffin, now an assistant coach for the Toronto Raptors) was valuable in spite of his non-shooting, it's amusing that AJ Griffin projects as one of the top shooters in the draft. Griffin hit 45% of his 3-point attempts on more than four attempts per game at Duke and went 12-of-19 in the four EYBL games for which I have data, thanks to ESPN Stats & Info. That Griffin was so effective at age 18 (he won't turn 19 until August) bodes well for his NBA future.
5. Dyson Daniels
Guard | G League Ignite
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.7 WARP
The contributions made by Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga as rookies have validated G League Ignite as a path to the NBA. Daniels should follow in their footsteps as a lottery pick. During the G League Showcase, Daniels rated as more valuable than either Green or Kuminga in the 2020-21 bubble season thanks to his 56% accuracy on 2-point attempts and an assist rate second on the team behind Scoot Henderson, who is eligible for the 2023 draft. Daniels' non-shooting (13-of-55, 25.5% on 3s) is a concern but the rest of his game is solid.
6. Walker Kessler
Center | Auburn
Top 100: No. 26
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Given Kessler's projected block rate (more than 8% of opponent 2-point attempts) is the best of any player in my database by a wide margin, there's undoubtedly a place for him in the NBA. Kessler is also a high-percentage finisher (70% on 2-point attempts) who attempted 50 3-pointers (albeit at a 20% clip). The question is how much Kessler's footspeed will limit him against NBA pick-and-roll offenses, which has dropped him into the mid-20s in the top 100.
7. Bennedict Mathurin
Guard/forward | Arizona
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
The last of an unusually high number of players (six) in the top 10 of both the stats-only projections and the top 100 -- typically a reliable indicator of NBA success -- Mathurin has climbed a bit through the draft process. His combination of size (6-foot-7) and shooting (38% in two seasons at Arizona, with a form that portends possible improvement down the road) makes Mathurin an easy NBA fit just about anywhere.
8. Tari Eason
Forward | LSU
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
It's atypical -- though not unprecedented -- for a top prospect to come off the bench during his last NCAA season. Eason started just four of 33 games at LSU after one year at Cincinnati, yet was easily the team's best player in terms of advanced stats. Eason joins Zion Williamson and Chris Singleton as the third player in my database with projected steal and block rates both better than 2.5%.
9. Jeremy Sochan
Power forward | Baylor
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
One of the most intriguing prospects in this draft, Sochan came off the bench for the defending national champs. His feel for the game and quick feet for his size suggests Sochan could be a better NBA player than he was in college. That will be doubly true if Sochan improves his shooting after hitting 30% of his 3s and just 59% of his free throws during his lone college season.
10. Shaedon Sharpe
Shooting guard | Kentucky
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
As noted, Sharpe's projection is based off 12 games for UPlay Canada in the 2021 Nike EYBL competition. It's unusual for players to play EYBL the year before they enter the draft, but both Sharpe and Jalen Duren fit that category this year because they reclassified after EYBL play. Sharpe was one of the best players in EYBL, averaging 22.6 points per game in 28.3 minutes per game on above-average efficiency. Sharpe was particularly sure-handed for a high-scorer, committing just 1.5 turnovers per game. However, his low steal rate (0.8 per game) helps produce a good, but not great, statistical projection.
11. Paolo Banchero
Power forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 35
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
While the other two top prospects in this year's rankings are 1-2 overall in the consensus projections, Banchero falls outside the top 10 because of his unspectacular stats-only projection. Banchero wasn't as efficient as Holmgren and Smith. He was more accurate on long 2s than Smith (45%, per Synergy Sports) but not nearly as good from 3-point range (34%). Improvement there will help Banchero become an elite scorer. He could also stand to improve his impact on defense.
12. Jaden Ivey
Guard | Purdue
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 38
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
If I had to bet on one player to outperform their projection, it would be Ivey, who was a part-time starter with a .497 true shooting percentage as a freshman before blossoming as a sophomore (he pushed his TS% all the way to .579 while increasing his usage rate). There's a long track record of quick guards proving more effective with NBA floor spacing, particularly when they can threaten defenses with their shooting. Ivey, who hit 36% of his 3-point attempts last season, could well qualify.
13. Jalen Duren
Center | Memphis
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Including his EYBL stats caused Duren to drop a bit. He shot just 54% on 2s in EYBL play, weaker than the 60% Duren hit on those attempts at Memphis against tougher competition. There's no concern about Duren's finishing, but his touch away from the basket is a concern. According to Synergy Sports, Duren shot just 34% from beyond five feet. Strong offensive rebounding and shot-blocking should still make Duren an NBA contributor.
14. Kennedy Chandler
Point guard | Tennessee
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
There's a bit of a drop after the top 13 to the next tier of prospects. The undersized Chandler (listed at 6-foot) was productive nonetheless as a freshman point guard, making 38% of his 3s. (One concern: Chandler wasn't nearly as good at the line, hitting just 61%.) Chandler is also a strong thief; his projected steal rate leads all top-100 players.
15. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Forward | Milwaukee
Top 100: No. 34
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
The NBA team that takes Baldwin late in the first round or in the second will be betting on his pre-college pedigree rather than his performance during 11 games playing for his dad at Milwaukee, where Baldwin shot just 34% from the field and had more turnovers than assists. Baldwin was a five-star recruit in large part because of his outstanding EYBL play as a rising junior in 2019, which fuels a top-10 stats-only projection. In particular, Baldwin was a far better finisher against EYBL competition.
16. Christian Braun
Shooting guard | Kansas
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Braun improved his projection during Kansas' run to the title, hitting three 3-pointers a game at a 45% clip, grabbing 7.3 RPG and posting an assist-to-turnover ratio near three in six NCAA tournament games. Before that, Braun already fared well in stats-only projections because of his 38% career 3-point shooting and lack of weaknesses.
17. Malaki Branham
Shooting guard | Ohio State
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 33
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Near the bottom of the top 30 back in March, Branham has jumped mostly because he's risen into the lottery section of the top 100. His youth (still 1
and efficiency (strong .596 TS% as a freshman) support that idea. On the other hand, Branham didn't contribute much in terms of box-score stats at the defensive end, limiting his stats-only projection.
18. Mark Williams
Center | Duke
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Another big mover in the top 100, Williams has likely benefited from the play of Boston Celtics center Robert Williams III. Like the Celtics center, Williams is unusually effective at blocking jumpers because of his giant wingspan (measured at 7-6 and a half at the NBA draft combine) and talent for his size. Although this Williams isn't the kind of playmaker from the high post, he's an ultra-high-percentage finisher: 72% on 2-point attempts, nearly all at or above the rim.
19. Trevor Keels
Guard/forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Keels is on the young side for even a one-and-done prospect as he won't turn 19 until late August. Still, I think NBA teams are probably right to have growing concern about Keels' efficiency as a scorer. He posted a below-average .520 TS% in his one season at Duke, making 31% of his 3-point attempts and 67% of his free throws. Keels will have to improve those marks to become a valuable NBA wing.
20. Johnny Davis
Shooting guard | Wisconsin
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 48
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Davis' skill set tends to divide scouts and statistical analysts. A high-volume scorer, Davis had the third-highest usage rate (32.5%) among players from major conferences, per Stathead.com. However, Davis' .523 TS% was substantially below average. Davis got to the foul line regularly (6.3 attempts per game) but made just 47% of his 2s and 31% of his 3s.
21. Peyton Watson
Small forward | UCLA
Top 100: No. 32
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Despite being a top-ranked prospect, Watson played just 12.7 MPG during his lone season at UCLA. Only two players in my database have averaged fewer minutes before being drafted: Cheick Diallo and Harry Giles, the latter coming off a series of knee injuries. Although Watson accumulated steals and blocks at decent rates, his projection owes almost entirely to his combination of age and top-100 ranking.
22. Blake Wesley
Shooting guard | Notre Dame
Top 100: No. 27
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
As a true freshman, Wesley was even more of a volume scorer than Wisconsin's Davis, combining 31% usage with a .495 true shooting percentage. His statistical projection is better because he's a year younger and has been a superior playmaker and shot blocker.
23. Hyunjung Lee
Small forward | Davidson
Top 100: No. 92
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
24. Gabriele Procida
Shooting guard | Fortitudo Bologna
Top 100: No. 52
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
The top-ranked prospect in my projections currently playing abroad, Procida is a pure shooter with excellent size at 6-7. In the Italian Lega Serie A this season, Procida made 38% of his 3-point attempts and 68% of his limited 2s. He's also an above-average defensive rebounder for a guard.
25. Jabari Walker
Power forward | Colorado
Top 100: No. 66
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Despite a strong opening scrimmage at the NBA draft combine (16 points on 7-of-9 shooting and seven rebounds in 25 minutes), Walker -- the son of former NBA player Samaki Walker -- hasn't made any move up in the top 100. The rebounding was no surprise from Walker, whose projected defensive rebound rate is third-best among top-100 players.
26. Josh Minott
Power forward | Memphis
Top 100: 47
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Minott had a difficult time carving out playing time in a deep Memphis frontcourt that included lottery prospect Duren. He was productive when he was on the court, averaging 18.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per 40 minutes. Given his limited experience, the 20-year-old Minott is probably more of a long-term project, albeit one that could help in short bursts.
27. Dalen Terry
Forward/guard | Arizona
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
A role player on a deep Arizona team, Terry has the lowest projected usage rate (12.5%) of any top-100 prospect. His playmaking from the wing (5.6 assists per 40 minutes) is an encouraging sign for Terry's potential, while his 57% 2-point shooting is also strong for a perimeter player.
28. TyTy Washington Jr.
Point guard | Kentucky
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 45
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Since March, Washington has dropped six spots in the top 100, moving his consensus projection a bit more in line with the stats-only version. Washington believers can point to the track record of Kentucky guards blossoming in the NBA as well as the presence of veteran Sahvir Wheeler forcing Washington to play off the ball much of his lone college season.
29. Jacob Gilyard
Point guard | Richmond
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The highest-ranked player in my projections who's not in the ESPN top 100, Gilyard is just 5-9 but became the NCAA's all-time steals leader in December. It helped that he returned for a fifth year, meaning Gilyard will turn 24 in July. Given those shortcomings, it's easy to see why NBA teams haven't been excited about Gilyard as a prospect. He did work out for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
30. E.J. Liddell
Power forward | Ohio State
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 42
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Liddell lags a bit in the projections because of his relatively high dependence on 2-pointers, which he hit at just a 53% clip during three years at Ohio State. Still, there's a lot to like about Liddell's potential. Although he measured at just 6-5 and a half without shoes at the combine, Liddell has a wingspan near 7-feet. That helps explain why Liddell emerged as a dominant shot-blocker last season, swatting a career-high 8.5% of opponent 2-point attempts. Liddell also made a career-high 46 3s at a 37% clip and will be a lot more valuable in the NBA if he can be a stretch 4.
Here are the full projections for the top 100 and unranked prospects who project better than replacement level:
Two weeks away from the NBA draft, how do the top prospects and sleepers project to the NBA based on their statistics?
Back during the NCAA tournament in March, I posted initial 2022 draft projections for Division I prospects and members of G League Ignite. Along with updated stats for the full college season, I've since added international prospects -- although just one who played outside the United States features in my top 30 -- as well as a projection for Shaedon Sharpe based on his EYBL performance before reclassifying and spending last season at Kentucky.
We also now have a nearly complete list of who will be part of this year's draft. Although the NBA's deadline to withdraw from the draft isn't until next week, the NCAA's earlier deadline means college prospects headed back to school have already withdrawn. That's led to some shuffling based on where players rank in ESPN's top 100 prospects.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other leagues to an NBA equivalent and then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ranking in the top 100 for the best consensus projection.
For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.
1. Chet Holmgren
Power forward | Gonzaga
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 4.4 WARP
There's no change at the very top of my projections, with Holmgren still the top-rated in both the stats-only version and the consensus projections. Holmgren's versatility stands out. He's the first prospect ever in my database to project to block at least 5% of opponent 2-point attempts and take at least 30% of his own shots from 3-point range. Add in projected 59% accuracy on 2-point attempts and Holmgren figures to make a big impact at both ends even if he's not the kind of dominant creator who usually ranks atop draft boards.
2. Jabari Smith
Power forward | Auburn
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.3 WARP
The one minor concern about Smith as a top prospect is his solid but unspectacular efficiency. Smith's projected .545 true shooting percentage as an NBA rookie is weaker than league average (.566). To become the dominant scorer he's got the potential to be, Smith will have to turn more of his long 2-point attempts (he shot 38.5% on 2s outside 17 feet, per Synergy Sports tracking) into 3s, which he made at a 42% clip -- or an effective field-goal percentage of 63% when accounting for the extra point.
3. Keegan Murray
Power forward | Iowa
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.0 WARP
Although Murray is old for a second-year player (he'll turn 22 in August), he was productive enough last season to easily outweigh that. One of the most versatile scorers in college hoops, Murray made 62% of his 2-point attempts and 40% of his 3s. And Murray's length made him a plus shot-blocker for a power forward. Along with Holmgren, Murray is the other player in the top five of both ESPN's top 100 and my stats-only projections.
4. AJ Griffin
Forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 2.7 WARP
Given his father (longtime NBA role player Adrian Griffin, now an assistant coach for the Toronto Raptors) was valuable in spite of his non-shooting, it's amusing that AJ Griffin projects as one of the top shooters in the draft. Griffin hit 45% of his 3-point attempts on more than four attempts per game at Duke and went 12-of-19 in the four EYBL games for which I have data, thanks to ESPN Stats & Info. That Griffin was so effective at age 18 (he won't turn 19 until August) bodes well for his NBA future.
5. Dyson Daniels
Guard | G League Ignite
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.7 WARP
The contributions made by Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga as rookies have validated G League Ignite as a path to the NBA. Daniels should follow in their footsteps as a lottery pick. During the G League Showcase, Daniels rated as more valuable than either Green or Kuminga in the 2020-21 bubble season thanks to his 56% accuracy on 2-point attempts and an assist rate second on the team behind Scoot Henderson, who is eligible for the 2023 draft. Daniels' non-shooting (13-of-55, 25.5% on 3s) is a concern but the rest of his game is solid.
6. Walker Kessler
Center | Auburn
Top 100: No. 26
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Given Kessler's projected block rate (more than 8% of opponent 2-point attempts) is the best of any player in my database by a wide margin, there's undoubtedly a place for him in the NBA. Kessler is also a high-percentage finisher (70% on 2-point attempts) who attempted 50 3-pointers (albeit at a 20% clip). The question is how much Kessler's footspeed will limit him against NBA pick-and-roll offenses, which has dropped him into the mid-20s in the top 100.
7. Bennedict Mathurin
Guard/forward | Arizona
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
The last of an unusually high number of players (six) in the top 10 of both the stats-only projections and the top 100 -- typically a reliable indicator of NBA success -- Mathurin has climbed a bit through the draft process. His combination of size (6-foot-7) and shooting (38% in two seasons at Arizona, with a form that portends possible improvement down the road) makes Mathurin an easy NBA fit just about anywhere.
8. Tari Eason
Forward | LSU
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
It's atypical -- though not unprecedented -- for a top prospect to come off the bench during his last NCAA season. Eason started just four of 33 games at LSU after one year at Cincinnati, yet was easily the team's best player in terms of advanced stats. Eason joins Zion Williamson and Chris Singleton as the third player in my database with projected steal and block rates both better than 2.5%.
9. Jeremy Sochan
Power forward | Baylor
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
One of the most intriguing prospects in this draft, Sochan came off the bench for the defending national champs. His feel for the game and quick feet for his size suggests Sochan could be a better NBA player than he was in college. That will be doubly true if Sochan improves his shooting after hitting 30% of his 3s and just 59% of his free throws during his lone college season.
10. Shaedon Sharpe
Shooting guard | Kentucky
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
As noted, Sharpe's projection is based off 12 games for UPlay Canada in the 2021 Nike EYBL competition. It's unusual for players to play EYBL the year before they enter the draft, but both Sharpe and Jalen Duren fit that category this year because they reclassified after EYBL play. Sharpe was one of the best players in EYBL, averaging 22.6 points per game in 28.3 minutes per game on above-average efficiency. Sharpe was particularly sure-handed for a high-scorer, committing just 1.5 turnovers per game. However, his low steal rate (0.8 per game) helps produce a good, but not great, statistical projection.
11. Paolo Banchero
Power forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 35
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
While the other two top prospects in this year's rankings are 1-2 overall in the consensus projections, Banchero falls outside the top 10 because of his unspectacular stats-only projection. Banchero wasn't as efficient as Holmgren and Smith. He was more accurate on long 2s than Smith (45%, per Synergy Sports) but not nearly as good from 3-point range (34%). Improvement there will help Banchero become an elite scorer. He could also stand to improve his impact on defense.
12. Jaden Ivey
Guard | Purdue
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 38
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
If I had to bet on one player to outperform their projection, it would be Ivey, who was a part-time starter with a .497 true shooting percentage as a freshman before blossoming as a sophomore (he pushed his TS% all the way to .579 while increasing his usage rate). There's a long track record of quick guards proving more effective with NBA floor spacing, particularly when they can threaten defenses with their shooting. Ivey, who hit 36% of his 3-point attempts last season, could well qualify.
13. Jalen Duren
Center | Memphis
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Including his EYBL stats caused Duren to drop a bit. He shot just 54% on 2s in EYBL play, weaker than the 60% Duren hit on those attempts at Memphis against tougher competition. There's no concern about Duren's finishing, but his touch away from the basket is a concern. According to Synergy Sports, Duren shot just 34% from beyond five feet. Strong offensive rebounding and shot-blocking should still make Duren an NBA contributor.
14. Kennedy Chandler
Point guard | Tennessee
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
There's a bit of a drop after the top 13 to the next tier of prospects. The undersized Chandler (listed at 6-foot) was productive nonetheless as a freshman point guard, making 38% of his 3s. (One concern: Chandler wasn't nearly as good at the line, hitting just 61%.) Chandler is also a strong thief; his projected steal rate leads all top-100 players.
15. Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Forward | Milwaukee
Top 100: No. 34
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
The NBA team that takes Baldwin late in the first round or in the second will be betting on his pre-college pedigree rather than his performance during 11 games playing for his dad at Milwaukee, where Baldwin shot just 34% from the field and had more turnovers than assists. Baldwin was a five-star recruit in large part because of his outstanding EYBL play as a rising junior in 2019, which fuels a top-10 stats-only projection. In particular, Baldwin was a far better finisher against EYBL competition.
16. Christian Braun
Shooting guard | Kansas
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Braun improved his projection during Kansas' run to the title, hitting three 3-pointers a game at a 45% clip, grabbing 7.3 RPG and posting an assist-to-turnover ratio near three in six NCAA tournament games. Before that, Braun already fared well in stats-only projections because of his 38% career 3-point shooting and lack of weaknesses.
17. Malaki Branham
Shooting guard | Ohio State
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 33
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Near the bottom of the top 30 back in March, Branham has jumped mostly because he's risen into the lottery section of the top 100. His youth (still 1
and efficiency (strong .596 TS% as a freshman) support that idea. On the other hand, Branham didn't contribute much in terms of box-score stats at the defensive end, limiting his stats-only projection.18. Mark Williams
Center | Duke
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Another big mover in the top 100, Williams has likely benefited from the play of Boston Celtics center Robert Williams III. Like the Celtics center, Williams is unusually effective at blocking jumpers because of his giant wingspan (measured at 7-6 and a half at the NBA draft combine) and talent for his size. Although this Williams isn't the kind of playmaker from the high post, he's an ultra-high-percentage finisher: 72% on 2-point attempts, nearly all at or above the rim.
19. Trevor Keels
Guard/forward | Duke
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Keels is on the young side for even a one-and-done prospect as he won't turn 19 until late August. Still, I think NBA teams are probably right to have growing concern about Keels' efficiency as a scorer. He posted a below-average .520 TS% in his one season at Duke, making 31% of his 3-point attempts and 67% of his free throws. Keels will have to improve those marks to become a valuable NBA wing.
20. Johnny Davis
Shooting guard | Wisconsin
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 48
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Davis' skill set tends to divide scouts and statistical analysts. A high-volume scorer, Davis had the third-highest usage rate (32.5%) among players from major conferences, per Stathead.com. However, Davis' .523 TS% was substantially below average. Davis got to the foul line regularly (6.3 attempts per game) but made just 47% of his 2s and 31% of his 3s.
21. Peyton Watson
Small forward | UCLA
Top 100: No. 32
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Despite being a top-ranked prospect, Watson played just 12.7 MPG during his lone season at UCLA. Only two players in my database have averaged fewer minutes before being drafted: Cheick Diallo and Harry Giles, the latter coming off a series of knee injuries. Although Watson accumulated steals and blocks at decent rates, his projection owes almost entirely to his combination of age and top-100 ranking.
22. Blake Wesley
Shooting guard | Notre Dame
Top 100: No. 27
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
As a true freshman, Wesley was even more of a volume scorer than Wisconsin's Davis, combining 31% usage with a .495 true shooting percentage. His statistical projection is better because he's a year younger and has been a superior playmaker and shot blocker.
23. Hyunjung Lee
Small forward | Davidson
Top 100: No. 92
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
24. Gabriele Procida
Shooting guard | Fortitudo Bologna
Top 100: No. 52
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
The top-ranked prospect in my projections currently playing abroad, Procida is a pure shooter with excellent size at 6-7. In the Italian Lega Serie A this season, Procida made 38% of his 3-point attempts and 68% of his limited 2s. He's also an above-average defensive rebounder for a guard.
25. Jabari Walker
Power forward | Colorado
Top 100: No. 66
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Despite a strong opening scrimmage at the NBA draft combine (16 points on 7-of-9 shooting and seven rebounds in 25 minutes), Walker -- the son of former NBA player Samaki Walker -- hasn't made any move up in the top 100. The rebounding was no surprise from Walker, whose projected defensive rebound rate is third-best among top-100 players.
26. Josh Minott
Power forward | Memphis
Top 100: 47
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Minott had a difficult time carving out playing time in a deep Memphis frontcourt that included lottery prospect Duren. He was productive when he was on the court, averaging 18.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per 40 minutes. Given his limited experience, the 20-year-old Minott is probably more of a long-term project, albeit one that could help in short bursts.
27. Dalen Terry
Forward/guard | Arizona
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
A role player on a deep Arizona team, Terry has the lowest projected usage rate (12.5%) of any top-100 prospect. His playmaking from the wing (5.6 assists per 40 minutes) is an encouraging sign for Terry's potential, while his 57% 2-point shooting is also strong for a perimeter player.
28. TyTy Washington Jr.
Point guard | Kentucky
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 45
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Since March, Washington has dropped six spots in the top 100, moving his consensus projection a bit more in line with the stats-only version. Washington believers can point to the track record of Kentucky guards blossoming in the NBA as well as the presence of veteran Sahvir Wheeler forcing Washington to play off the ball much of his lone college season.
29. Jacob Gilyard
Point guard | Richmond
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The highest-ranked player in my projections who's not in the ESPN top 100, Gilyard is just 5-9 but became the NCAA's all-time steals leader in December. It helped that he returned for a fifth year, meaning Gilyard will turn 24 in July. Given those shortcomings, it's easy to see why NBA teams haven't been excited about Gilyard as a prospect. He did work out for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
30. E.J. Liddell
Power forward | Ohio State
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 42
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Liddell lags a bit in the projections because of his relatively high dependence on 2-pointers, which he hit at just a 53% clip during three years at Ohio State. Still, there's a lot to like about Liddell's potential. Although he measured at just 6-5 and a half without shoes at the combine, Liddell has a wingspan near 7-feet. That helps explain why Liddell emerged as a dominant shot-blocker last season, swatting a career-high 8.5% of opponent 2-point attempts. Liddell also made a career-high 46 3s at a 37% clip and will be a lot more valuable in the NBA if he can be a stretch 4.
Here are the full projections for the top 100 and unranked prospects who project better than replacement level:
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NBA scouts evaluate Knicks’ draft targets, question marks, upside and fit
It’s time for the experts to weigh in.
The Knicks will pick 11th in the first round of the NBA Draft on June 23, and they will have their choices. The consensus is that there isn’t much of a difference between the prospects who project to go near the end of the lottery.
Maybe an anticipated high pick like AJ Griffin or Jeremy Sochan falls to the Knicks or maybe they snag a point guard in TyTy Washington. They could go with a development project like Ousmane Dieng or Jalen Duren, or they could jet in the other direction, selecting a more finished product, like 22-year-old Ochai Agbaji.
The pros are here to talk about all of them and more.
The Athletic asked two front-office officials with leading roles in their team’s draft processes, one a high-ranking scout and the other an Eastern Conference assistant general manager, about 11 players the Knicks could draft with the No. 11 pick. Here’s what they said:
(Note: Players are listed in alphabetical order; quotes have been edited for clarity and brevity.)
Ochai Agbaji
6-foot-5 wing
22 years old
Kansas
Sam Vecenie’s most recent mock draft: No. 15 to the Hornets
He improved his 3-point percentage during each of his four seasons at Kansas and made 41 percent of his 3-pointers in 2021-22, but he also was only a 71 percent free-throw shooter for the Jayhawks. Is that indicative of something that could go wrong once he backs up to the NBA 3-point arc against tougher defenses?
Assistant GM: I don’t think it’s a guarantee that he’s an elite shooter. I think he’s an above-average shooter. If they’re thinking this guy is gonna be lights out, I’m not so sure. But if we’re talking, like, Tim Hardaway Jr.-level, where Tim has had several good shooting seasons but nobody is gonna say Tim Hardaway Jr. is Klay Thompson, yeah … I never thought he shot the ball as easy or as pure as those elite guys. The fact that he shot it well as a senior — that can happen when a guy gets in a great rhythm and great confidence in that role. I would have been more likely to believe that the improvement was as dramatic as it appeared if the free throws had gone with it.
Malaki Branham
6-foot-5 wing
19 years old
Ohio State
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 16 to the Hawks
How do you view him as a scorer with the ball? He made 42 percent of his 3s this season, but he didn’t take tons of them and operated a lot in the midrange. What do you think of the shot selection? Do you think he can create enough space to get off his shots?
Scout: That’s what he’s supposed to do. He’s supposed to be a three-level scorer who can score a little bit from everywhere. The midrange is kind of his specialty right now and obviously in the league, if you don’t do that at a very high level, you either have to go all the way to the rim or step back to the 3-point line. We’ll have to see if that translates as well as it was in college. But again, he’s a guy who can score at three different levels. He can come off screens a little bit. I think there’s versatility with his scoring there, so in that sense, I’m comfortable with him.
Dyson Daniels
6-foot-7 guard/wing
19 years old
G League Ignite
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 10 to the Wizards
There are so few point guards high in this draft. And on top of that, the two who could be point guards also might not be. There’s TyTy Washington, and there’s also Daniels. He ran point a bunch for the G League Ignite but was an inconsistent jump shooter and could slot in as more of a wing. Do you view him as a player who can run an offense full time in the NBA?
Assistant GM: I like him and the team that drafts him will probably talk themselves into there being shades of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but I don’t think he has as much offensive-creation talent, and I do think he’d be a nice player to have if you have some wings who are going be your main creators and you just need a pseudo-point guard who is more of a secondary ballhandler because he’s big. I think he’s going to end up being big and physical and I like a lot of things about him. But yeah, he’s probably not the full-time offensive engine, so putting him alongside other guys who can do that is going to be where he’s more valuable.
What do you think he’s lacking to make him a “full-time offensive engine”?
Assistant GM: He doesn’t quite have the elite burst and doesn’t have a great creative handle to get by guys. And then I think he’s a decent shooter. He’s a better shooter than people realize, but his shot doesn’t translate great to shooting off the dribble. It’s going to take a lot of work for him to be a better shooter off the dribble because it’s a little stiff and rigid.
Johnny Davis
6-foot-5 wing
20 years old
Wisconsin
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 14 to the Cavaliers
He had only a 46 percent effective field-goal percentage and 52 percent true shooting this past season. His efficiency was higher before the ankle injury, but it’s not like it was through the roof. Does that concern you?
Scout: Yeah, for sure. The concern with Johnny is the efficiency and the shot selection. When he does get it going, I think it’s interesting. He also is a high-level rebounder for his size, so he’s not just one-dimensional and that’s it — not that the rebounding is enough to put him (in the lottery). But he can do a little bit more than just score. But yeah, to justify the pick, he’s going to have to be a different level of scorer and have to improve the efficiency, no doubt about that.
He’ll have better spacing around him in the NBA than he did at Wisconsin. How much do you think that will help?
Scout: He’s a good learner from my evaluation. I think the guy can pick up things quickly, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt of picking up where to be, which is something that some players struggle with when they first come into the league: trying to understand offense or their spots on the floor. And I think that part he’s going to figure out rather quickly. If he can make (jumpers), then it’s gonna unlock the other stuff. He’s not that strong. He’s not a great athlete. He’s got some quickness but nothing outstanding, so it’s gonna have to be on skills mostly. So yeah, if his shot doesn’t go in, he needs to find different ways to make it work.
Ousmane Dieng
6-foot-9 forward
18 years old
New Zealand Breakers
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 12 to the Thunder
Dieng struggles shooting, but do you think his creative abilities are good enough to where he could become a secondary ballhandler or more?
Scout: If he’s more than a secondary ballhandler, then he’s probably a stud, right? He’s a guy who initiates your offense at 6-9. That’s unique. But yeah, I do think there’s something there. He needs a lot of time, which the Knicks are not famous for having, and he does have a little bit of that passiveness — not the same passiveness of Frank (Ntilikina), but some of it. But as far as initiating the offense, he’s probably something in between. If he’s your best initiator, you’re probably not in good shape. If he can be a secondary ballhandler, then it’s interesting. … If he’s your best initiator, then we’re talking, ‘Jackpot. They hit it.’ That’s the best-case scenario. So, I’ll put him something in between.
Jalen Duren
6-foot-11 center
18 years old
Memphis
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 11 to the Knicks
He’s the youngest player in the draft, and his production might not be fully representative of his skills since he played without a top-notch point guard this past season. Are there parts of his game he didn’t show at Memphis? How do you think his offensive skill set can develop and will he be someone who can create his shot?
Scout: If that’s his calling card, I’m probably out on him. I think he’s a guy that’s going to base his game a lot on athleticism, vertical spacing and being active around the rim. He doesn’t look very skilled to me or fluid offensively. Keep in mind that he has size. In college, even if you don’t have the best point guards around you, I think you can still be effective. And I agree that they didn’t have great guards around him, but I think it’s an excuse in this case. I’ve seen players with his size that were able to be more productive with bad guards around them at the college level. … He has a little bit of solid touch, but I see him as a player who’s going to score around the rim more than someone who can create offense and do things by himself.
Tari Eason
6-foot-8 forward
21 years old
LSU
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 18 to the Bulls
His numbers at LSU were off the charts and his defense was impressive. But the abstract topic of “feel,” specifically as a scorer, comes up during conversations about him. He is very right-hand dominant. He had more than twice as many turnovers as he did assists this season. Do you believe in his scoring despite that? And if not, how improvable is this flaw?
Assistant GM: Offensively, he makes a lot of bad decisions and misses a lot of passes. Defensively, he’s very active and instinctual, but he’s not very disciplined, and I know that at both places he played in college (Eason transferred from Cincinnati to LSU), they felt like he had a hard time understanding and adhering to defensive and offensive schemes. But on defense, they just turned him loose: ‘Go do whatever you want’ and hope it works out for the best, which it usually did. But his ability to understand schemes and follow the game plan were always concerns. … I think he chose to play very selfishly on offense at times. I think that given his instinctual reactions on defense, I believe it can improve if he chooses to take a more passing-oriented approach. NBA spacing will help with that, too, but I don’t love it. I don’t think he’s Kawhi Leonard. He’s got a Leonard body: big hands, long arms. But his game is as an energy big with a little bit of shooting.
AJ Griffin
6-foot-6 forward
18 years old
Duke
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 9 to the Spurs
What do you think of his lateral quickness and how he moves defensively? He had a couple of knee injuries that kept him out. Can he become a plus defender? Do you think he’s quicker than he showed in college?
Scout: I think so, yeah. I like his size more than his quickness. Sometimes, you have different physical tools that kind of compensate for the others, so if you’re not that quick, you might be long enough and if you’re not long, you might be strong enough. It doesn’t have to be just quickness. He’s not super quick but he is strong and long, so I think it’s gonna help him defensively.
What level of defender do you see him potentially becoming?
Scout: Not an all-defensive level. I think as a guy you can throw out and defend those big wings on the other side. Now, (Kevin Durant) and all those guys, I don’t know, but probably a level below that.
Jeremy Sochan
6-foot-9 forward
18 years old
Baylor
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 7 to the Trail Blazers
Is his defense so good that it almost doesn’t matter if he develops a workable jump shot? Or does he need to add at least competent shooting to justify going in the lottery?
Scout: He does need to add that, but I think what makes him interesting is that offensively he’s also good at moving the ball. If he does end up developing a shot, he is not going to be a guy they put in the corner and just hope he makes a shot. He’s not on the same level as Dieng as far as initiating and all that, but he’s a team-oriented player and he likes to move the ball. I think that’s one of his strengths, and coaches love that. … As far as if his defense is (good enough) to justify the lottery, if you look at Matisse Thybulle, he is a player who entered the draft like that and has stayed in the league just doing that, and he went in the 20s. I don’t think people doubted Thybulle’s defense coming in; they just don’t go in the mid-to-late lottery. I do think that Sochan is a little bit more than just that.
TyTy Washington
6-foot-3 guard
20 years old
Kentucky
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 17 to the Rockets
Do you think he’s a full-on floor general, the type of player who can start at the point and run an offense?
Assistant GM: I do think he’s a full-time point guard, but I don’t think he’s athletic enough to be a dominant offensive creator. I could see him having a successful niche, like Tyus Jones, where he is a point guard and mostly a backup. He could start some but if he’s the main guy that you’re asking to create offense for you, he’s gonna struggle against good defenders because he just doesn’t have exceptional burst or creative ability. … He’s going to run some pick-and-rolls. He’s going to make a lot of decisions for you. It’s going to be a valuable skill set to have, but against the best defenses and their best players, somebody else is probably going to have to create the initial advantage. But against second units in the flow of the game, I think you see guys like that, who are good decision-makers. Jones would be one. Monte Morris would be another. Those are guys who have been able to use that successfully. But when the shot clock is winding down and someone has to break the defense and create a basket out of nothing, that’s probably not going to be him.
Mark Williams
7-foot center
20 years old
Duke
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 13 to the Hornets
You need to be a heck of a rim-diving center to go in the lottery in 2022. Do you think he can move his feet well enough to guard for a seven-game playoff series?
Assistant GM: Yes, to some extent. To me, Williams projects as somewhere between Mitchell Robinson and Jarrett Allen, and I think those are players who are good to have most of the time, but there are probably a few matchups in the playoffs where they get minimized a little bit. If you were confident that he was gonna be Allen, then yes, (he’s worth a lottery pick), but I think he’s probably a notch or half-notch below that. It always depends on who the alternatives are, but I’d say it’s harder to justify a pick as high as No. 11 for a player like that.
It’s time for the experts to weigh in.
The Knicks will pick 11th in the first round of the NBA Draft on June 23, and they will have their choices. The consensus is that there isn’t much of a difference between the prospects who project to go near the end of the lottery.
Maybe an anticipated high pick like AJ Griffin or Jeremy Sochan falls to the Knicks or maybe they snag a point guard in TyTy Washington. They could go with a development project like Ousmane Dieng or Jalen Duren, or they could jet in the other direction, selecting a more finished product, like 22-year-old Ochai Agbaji.
The pros are here to talk about all of them and more.
The Athletic asked two front-office officials with leading roles in their team’s draft processes, one a high-ranking scout and the other an Eastern Conference assistant general manager, about 11 players the Knicks could draft with the No. 11 pick. Here’s what they said:
(Note: Players are listed in alphabetical order; quotes have been edited for clarity and brevity.)
Ochai Agbaji
6-foot-5 wing
22 years old
Kansas
Sam Vecenie’s most recent mock draft: No. 15 to the Hornets
He improved his 3-point percentage during each of his four seasons at Kansas and made 41 percent of his 3-pointers in 2021-22, but he also was only a 71 percent free-throw shooter for the Jayhawks. Is that indicative of something that could go wrong once he backs up to the NBA 3-point arc against tougher defenses?
Assistant GM: I don’t think it’s a guarantee that he’s an elite shooter. I think he’s an above-average shooter. If they’re thinking this guy is gonna be lights out, I’m not so sure. But if we’re talking, like, Tim Hardaway Jr.-level, where Tim has had several good shooting seasons but nobody is gonna say Tim Hardaway Jr. is Klay Thompson, yeah … I never thought he shot the ball as easy or as pure as those elite guys. The fact that he shot it well as a senior — that can happen when a guy gets in a great rhythm and great confidence in that role. I would have been more likely to believe that the improvement was as dramatic as it appeared if the free throws had gone with it.
Malaki Branham
6-foot-5 wing
19 years old
Ohio State
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 16 to the Hawks
How do you view him as a scorer with the ball? He made 42 percent of his 3s this season, but he didn’t take tons of them and operated a lot in the midrange. What do you think of the shot selection? Do you think he can create enough space to get off his shots?
Scout: That’s what he’s supposed to do. He’s supposed to be a three-level scorer who can score a little bit from everywhere. The midrange is kind of his specialty right now and obviously in the league, if you don’t do that at a very high level, you either have to go all the way to the rim or step back to the 3-point line. We’ll have to see if that translates as well as it was in college. But again, he’s a guy who can score at three different levels. He can come off screens a little bit. I think there’s versatility with his scoring there, so in that sense, I’m comfortable with him.
Dyson Daniels
6-foot-7 guard/wing
19 years old
G League Ignite
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 10 to the Wizards
There are so few point guards high in this draft. And on top of that, the two who could be point guards also might not be. There’s TyTy Washington, and there’s also Daniels. He ran point a bunch for the G League Ignite but was an inconsistent jump shooter and could slot in as more of a wing. Do you view him as a player who can run an offense full time in the NBA?
Assistant GM: I like him and the team that drafts him will probably talk themselves into there being shades of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but I don’t think he has as much offensive-creation talent, and I do think he’d be a nice player to have if you have some wings who are going be your main creators and you just need a pseudo-point guard who is more of a secondary ballhandler because he’s big. I think he’s going to end up being big and physical and I like a lot of things about him. But yeah, he’s probably not the full-time offensive engine, so putting him alongside other guys who can do that is going to be where he’s more valuable.
What do you think he’s lacking to make him a “full-time offensive engine”?
Assistant GM: He doesn’t quite have the elite burst and doesn’t have a great creative handle to get by guys. And then I think he’s a decent shooter. He’s a better shooter than people realize, but his shot doesn’t translate great to shooting off the dribble. It’s going to take a lot of work for him to be a better shooter off the dribble because it’s a little stiff and rigid.
Johnny Davis
6-foot-5 wing
20 years old
Wisconsin
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 14 to the Cavaliers
He had only a 46 percent effective field-goal percentage and 52 percent true shooting this past season. His efficiency was higher before the ankle injury, but it’s not like it was through the roof. Does that concern you?
Scout: Yeah, for sure. The concern with Johnny is the efficiency and the shot selection. When he does get it going, I think it’s interesting. He also is a high-level rebounder for his size, so he’s not just one-dimensional and that’s it — not that the rebounding is enough to put him (in the lottery). But he can do a little bit more than just score. But yeah, to justify the pick, he’s going to have to be a different level of scorer and have to improve the efficiency, no doubt about that.
He’ll have better spacing around him in the NBA than he did at Wisconsin. How much do you think that will help?
Scout: He’s a good learner from my evaluation. I think the guy can pick up things quickly, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt of picking up where to be, which is something that some players struggle with when they first come into the league: trying to understand offense or their spots on the floor. And I think that part he’s going to figure out rather quickly. If he can make (jumpers), then it’s gonna unlock the other stuff. He’s not that strong. He’s not a great athlete. He’s got some quickness but nothing outstanding, so it’s gonna have to be on skills mostly. So yeah, if his shot doesn’t go in, he needs to find different ways to make it work.
Ousmane Dieng
6-foot-9 forward
18 years old
New Zealand Breakers
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 12 to the Thunder
Dieng struggles shooting, but do you think his creative abilities are good enough to where he could become a secondary ballhandler or more?
Scout: If he’s more than a secondary ballhandler, then he’s probably a stud, right? He’s a guy who initiates your offense at 6-9. That’s unique. But yeah, I do think there’s something there. He needs a lot of time, which the Knicks are not famous for having, and he does have a little bit of that passiveness — not the same passiveness of Frank (Ntilikina), but some of it. But as far as initiating the offense, he’s probably something in between. If he’s your best initiator, you’re probably not in good shape. If he can be a secondary ballhandler, then it’s interesting. … If he’s your best initiator, then we’re talking, ‘Jackpot. They hit it.’ That’s the best-case scenario. So, I’ll put him something in between.
Jalen Duren
6-foot-11 center
18 years old
Memphis
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 11 to the Knicks
He’s the youngest player in the draft, and his production might not be fully representative of his skills since he played without a top-notch point guard this past season. Are there parts of his game he didn’t show at Memphis? How do you think his offensive skill set can develop and will he be someone who can create his shot?
Scout: If that’s his calling card, I’m probably out on him. I think he’s a guy that’s going to base his game a lot on athleticism, vertical spacing and being active around the rim. He doesn’t look very skilled to me or fluid offensively. Keep in mind that he has size. In college, even if you don’t have the best point guards around you, I think you can still be effective. And I agree that they didn’t have great guards around him, but I think it’s an excuse in this case. I’ve seen players with his size that were able to be more productive with bad guards around them at the college level. … He has a little bit of solid touch, but I see him as a player who’s going to score around the rim more than someone who can create offense and do things by himself.
Tari Eason
6-foot-8 forward
21 years old
LSU
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 18 to the Bulls
His numbers at LSU were off the charts and his defense was impressive. But the abstract topic of “feel,” specifically as a scorer, comes up during conversations about him. He is very right-hand dominant. He had more than twice as many turnovers as he did assists this season. Do you believe in his scoring despite that? And if not, how improvable is this flaw?
Assistant GM: Offensively, he makes a lot of bad decisions and misses a lot of passes. Defensively, he’s very active and instinctual, but he’s not very disciplined, and I know that at both places he played in college (Eason transferred from Cincinnati to LSU), they felt like he had a hard time understanding and adhering to defensive and offensive schemes. But on defense, they just turned him loose: ‘Go do whatever you want’ and hope it works out for the best, which it usually did. But his ability to understand schemes and follow the game plan were always concerns. … I think he chose to play very selfishly on offense at times. I think that given his instinctual reactions on defense, I believe it can improve if he chooses to take a more passing-oriented approach. NBA spacing will help with that, too, but I don’t love it. I don’t think he’s Kawhi Leonard. He’s got a Leonard body: big hands, long arms. But his game is as an energy big with a little bit of shooting.
AJ Griffin
6-foot-6 forward
18 years old
Duke
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 9 to the Spurs
What do you think of his lateral quickness and how he moves defensively? He had a couple of knee injuries that kept him out. Can he become a plus defender? Do you think he’s quicker than he showed in college?
Scout: I think so, yeah. I like his size more than his quickness. Sometimes, you have different physical tools that kind of compensate for the others, so if you’re not that quick, you might be long enough and if you’re not long, you might be strong enough. It doesn’t have to be just quickness. He’s not super quick but he is strong and long, so I think it’s gonna help him defensively.
What level of defender do you see him potentially becoming?
Scout: Not an all-defensive level. I think as a guy you can throw out and defend those big wings on the other side. Now, (Kevin Durant) and all those guys, I don’t know, but probably a level below that.
Jeremy Sochan
6-foot-9 forward
18 years old
Baylor
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 7 to the Trail Blazers
Is his defense so good that it almost doesn’t matter if he develops a workable jump shot? Or does he need to add at least competent shooting to justify going in the lottery?
Scout: He does need to add that, but I think what makes him interesting is that offensively he’s also good at moving the ball. If he does end up developing a shot, he is not going to be a guy they put in the corner and just hope he makes a shot. He’s not on the same level as Dieng as far as initiating and all that, but he’s a team-oriented player and he likes to move the ball. I think that’s one of his strengths, and coaches love that. … As far as if his defense is (good enough) to justify the lottery, if you look at Matisse Thybulle, he is a player who entered the draft like that and has stayed in the league just doing that, and he went in the 20s. I don’t think people doubted Thybulle’s defense coming in; they just don’t go in the mid-to-late lottery. I do think that Sochan is a little bit more than just that.
TyTy Washington
6-foot-3 guard
20 years old
Kentucky
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 17 to the Rockets
Do you think he’s a full-on floor general, the type of player who can start at the point and run an offense?
Assistant GM: I do think he’s a full-time point guard, but I don’t think he’s athletic enough to be a dominant offensive creator. I could see him having a successful niche, like Tyus Jones, where he is a point guard and mostly a backup. He could start some but if he’s the main guy that you’re asking to create offense for you, he’s gonna struggle against good defenders because he just doesn’t have exceptional burst or creative ability. … He’s going to run some pick-and-rolls. He’s going to make a lot of decisions for you. It’s going to be a valuable skill set to have, but against the best defenses and their best players, somebody else is probably going to have to create the initial advantage. But against second units in the flow of the game, I think you see guys like that, who are good decision-makers. Jones would be one. Monte Morris would be another. Those are guys who have been able to use that successfully. But when the shot clock is winding down and someone has to break the defense and create a basket out of nothing, that’s probably not going to be him.
Mark Williams
7-foot center
20 years old
Duke
Vecenie’s draft positioning: No. 13 to the Hornets
You need to be a heck of a rim-diving center to go in the lottery in 2022. Do you think he can move his feet well enough to guard for a seven-game playoff series?
Assistant GM: Yes, to some extent. To me, Williams projects as somewhere between Mitchell Robinson and Jarrett Allen, and I think those are players who are good to have most of the time, but there are probably a few matchups in the playoffs where they get minimized a little bit. If you were confident that he was gonna be Allen, then yes, (he’s worth a lottery pick), but I think he’s probably a notch or half-notch below that. It always depends on who the alternatives are, but I’d say it’s harder to justify a pick as high as No. 11 for a player like that.
Mister Meaner
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ballinsam23
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I just wish he did stuff better that I’d want from my PF in today’s league. I like his ability to put the ball on the floor and that he can playmake for others, but he’s an average shooter and average at best defensively. Don’t love that combo.
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According to the article above banchero shot 45% on long 2’s. Not bad at all, if he never becomes an above average 3 point shooter hopefully he can be a midrange type
Idk, all of them have red flags so you have to lessen your expectations
Jabari scares the hell out of me offensively, can’t create and can’t really get to the or finish at the rim.. but as a superstar 3 and D he’s appealing
Chet is a wild card. Can you be confident that he can be a franchise player? His floor seems very high though, he and jabari I can see being 3rd options on great teams
Idk, all of them have red flags so you have to lessen your expectations
Jabari scares the hell out of me offensively, can’t create and can’t really get to the or finish at the rim.. but as a superstar 3 and D he’s appealing
Chet is a wild card. Can you be confident that he can be a franchise player? His floor seems very high though, he and jabari I can see being 3rd options on great teams
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Aint no F'ing way I want Leon to trade up to snatch Banchero ..... none!
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What's up with Dior? Dude can't make/hold a commitment for more than 18 months.
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At this point I think I’m going with Chet at #1So why not swing for Ivey?
After that you could make the case for Ivey
I like the idea of him being able to play both sides and on ball as a non primary creator. You’d project him to be a Playoff capable rotation player
Dunno if his shot is real but he seems to be able to hit off the bounce shots and is obviously athletic af getting to the rim at will
His handle seems a lil stiff but you can tell he’s got sauce instincts and is shifty
Ja and Donovan mitchell are two unique guards that I see him being compared to. Seems like a stretch but in this class you can make a case for him to go high
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Better chance of being an all-star than the top 3 guys. Born same year as Chet and Paolo. Explosive athlete, good shooter, elite first step. Will have way more space to work with in the NBA than having Eddey and Williams clogging the paint.So why not swing for Ivey?
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Need a healthy Fultz with Jabari x Franz next season Plz 
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If I had a gun to my head, Chet's #1. It just feels like he's got the smoothest path basketball-wise to being a real difference maker on a contender.
I'd go Paolo/Ivey/Jabari, but I'm not fighting anyone that disagrees.
Jabari just scares me. Can't create. Can't finish. He looks stiff/uncomfortable as a ball handler to me. Looks very awkward/incapable going left. So much of what he does well is standing still catch and shoot or contested pull up jumpers off one or two dribbles. He's capable but he's not a difference maker defensively - and he's not a high-end athlete.
Just concerned he ends up Jaren Jackson without the elite defensive ability or a premium Maxi Kleber. I see why people are excited about him - it just feels like too many "what if's" for him to reach what people think he can be.
I'd go Paolo/Ivey/Jabari, but I'm not fighting anyone that disagrees.
Jabari just scares me. Can't create. Can't finish. He looks stiff/uncomfortable as a ball handler to me. Looks very awkward/incapable going left. So much of what he does well is standing still catch and shoot or contested pull up jumpers off one or two dribbles. He's capable but he's not a difference maker defensively - and he's not a high-end athlete.
Just concerned he ends up Jaren Jackson without the elite defensive ability or a premium Maxi Kleber. I see why people are excited about him - it just feels like too many "what if's" for him to reach what people think he can be.
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What's up with Dior? Dude can't make/hold a commitment for more than 18 months.
Look at the number of high schools he’s played for thus far
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i feel like there’s no reason jabari can’t be a better version of deandre hunter
That type of player should be a playoff caliber rotation player on a good to great team
Fully expecting him to be a first or even second option is a stretch
I’m hoping he focuses on defense because there’s so much upside
That type of player should be a playoff caliber rotation player on a good to great team
Fully expecting him to be a first or even second option is a stretch
I’m hoping he focuses on defense because there’s so much upside
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I threw out the JJJ comp for Jabari awhile back. I see why some people throw out 6'10 Klay too.
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offensively I see the similarities to jjj but jjj is 25 lbs heavier so idk
But I’ve also seen jabari hit some shots that jjj still cannot
Feel like jabari is more of a wing than a big
But I’ve also seen jabari hit some shots that jjj still cannot
Feel like jabari is more of a wing than a big
dacomeup
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Big wing is probably appropriate
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I just don’t see the kinda defender either of those guys are.
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What's up with Dior? Dude can't make/hold a commitment for more than 18 months.
One of the most bizarre prep careers I have ever seen
Might as well sign w/ Ignite
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My thing with Smith is why are ppl acting like yo can’t develop the things he’s currently lacking? …Seems like a lot more focus on his weaknesses when everybody at the top got question marks and things they gotta develop/improve on
Right now I see a 6”10 dude that can hit the 3 and defend multiple positions, sounds like a solid start to me for a 19 year old in todays NBA
Right now I see a 6”10 dude that can hit the 3 and defend multiple positions, sounds like a solid start to me for a 19 year old in todays NBA
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You can ask this question w/ all of the top 3 prospects.
Is Chet going to gain weight?
Is Smith going to become a shot creator?
Is Paolo become to become a passable defender?
big j 33
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Of those three a skinny guy putting on weight is the easiest answer to me.
