Air Jordan 7 Retro “Hare” - May 16, 2015

Every time I get a call in Socal I get it after 5pm usually after the sheikhs email's which should be coming soon...
 
nt09 said:
 
this is definitely incorrect. the probabilities aren't added in this way, they're multiplied because each raffle is treated as an independent event. adding them into one pool is not how it's done.
 
think of it this way: if you flip a coin, chances it lands heads is 1 in 2 (50%). if you flip it 10 times, chances it lands heads at least once is much greater (it's 99.9%). ill take a stab at the calculations first for the coin example and then for the 2 raffles with 1 in 50 chance each example, someone can correct me if im wrong.
 
10 coin flips:
 
(1/2)^10 = 1/1024 or ~.1% (this is the chance you get tails all 10 times) => ~99.9% chance at least one heads
 
 
2 raffles (1 in 50 chance each or 2%):
 
(49/50)^2 = 2401/2500 or 96% => your chances are now 4%
 
8 raffles (1 in 50 chance each):
 
(49/50)^8 = 85% => 15% chance

basically your chances increase with every succssive event. this is all moot though because each raffle varies greatly in number of entrants, stock available, and general shadiness of store raffle procedures lol.
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I was gonna type this up, but decided it wasn't worth it.  Just to flesh it out a little more, the formula is 1-((chances of FAILURE in any given raffle)^number of raffles)=chance of success.  for each raffle you enter, the odds you fail every time gets reduced, which means your chances of success also go up.
 
A guaranteed pair, a phone call about another pair, and two calls about my daughters pair....TODAY WAS A GOOD DAY!!!
 
Dilbert said:
So just to be clear, before I completely write off this community...

Several, if not may of you believe that if I enter ten raffles, and you enter one, then we both have the same chance of winning a raffle? Correct?
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Dude I understand where you're coming from, but what 123456789 is saying is valid.

You can compare what you're saying to as where I have a better chance at winning when I buy 10 of the same scratch off lottos vs. 10 different scratch off lottos.

Meaning if you were to getting multiple tickets from one location your chances realistically is greater than getting one from each different store.

But overall I do think you're correct as well.
 
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nt09 said:
 
this is definitely incorrect. the probabilities aren't added in this way, they're multiplied because each raffle is treated as an independent event. adding them into one pool is not how it's done.
 
think of it this way: if you flip a coin, chances it lands heads is 1 in 2 (50%). if you flip it 10 times, chances it lands heads at least once is much greater (it's 99.9%). ill take a stab at the calculations first for the coin example and then for the 2 raffles with 1 in 50 chance each example, someone can correct me if im wrong.
 
10 coin flips:
 
(1/2)^10 = 1/1024 or ~.1% (this is the chance you get tails all 10 times) => ~99.9% chance at least one heads
 
 
2 raffles (1 in 50 chance each or 2%):
 
(49/50)^2 = 2401/2500 or 96% => your chances are now 4%
 
8 raffles (1 in 50 chance each):
 
(49/50)^8 = 85% => 15% chance

basically your chances increase with every succssive event. this is all moot though because each raffle varies greatly in number of entrants, stock available, and general shadiness of store raffle procedures lol.
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Thank you. Finally someone with some intelligence.
 
So I called my local FNL to see if they're getting the hares tommorow .. Dude picked up, said yea and literally hanged up a second later 
mean.gif
 
No luck on raffles for me. Looks like I'll have to pass on these since the GMAT is 8-12 tomorrow morning. Good luck to everyone on their hunt. Hopefully they'll have some somewhere after 12noon
 
92TillContinue said:
Local footlocker said they didnt get any pairs. either theyre lieing cause theyre shady or theyre a joke of a store. pretty sure its a little of both though.
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Did the release calendar say your fl was getting them. If it shows yes then you already know your answer. If it didn't shoe your store they prob didn't rcv them. You never know these days.
 
infinitenoms said:
 
I was gonna type this up, but decided it wasn't worth it.  Just to flesh it out a little more, the formula is 1-((chances of FAILURE in any given raffle)^number of raffles)=chance of success.  for each raffle you enter, the odds you fail every time gets reduced, which means your chances of success also go up.
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yes, thank you again.

So just to explain to this Greg dude, and anyone saying he is even remotely "right".....you are completely and utterly wrong.

In this example, if all the raffles have a 1/10 chance.

If you enter just one, your chances of winning are 10%

If I enter all 10, my chances of winning one are 65%

Obviously, those numbers are nowhere near "the same".

So again, stop spreading your nonsense.
 
nt09 said:
this is definitely incorrect. the probabilities aren't added in this way, they're multiplied because each raffle is treated as an independent event. adding them into one pool is not how it's done.

 

think of it this way: if you flip a coin, chances it lands heads is 1 in 2 (50%). if you flip it 10 times, chances it lands heads at least once is much greater (it's 99.9%). ill take a stab at the calculations first for the coin example and then for the 2 raffles with 1 in 50 chance each example, someone can correct me if im wrong.

 

10 coin flips:

 

(1/2)^10 = 1/1024 or ~.1% (this is the chance you get tails all 10 times) => ~99.9% chance at least one heads

 

 

2 raffles (1 in 50 chance each or 2%):

 

(49/50)^2 = 2401/2500 or 96% => your chances are now 4%

 

8 raffles (1 in 50 chance each):

 

(49/50)^8 = 85% => 15% chance


basically your chances increase with every succssive event. this is all moot though because each raffle varies greatly in number of entrants, stock available, and general shadiness of store raffle procedures lol.
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sthebest said:
View media item 1532809I saw the OG shirt posted pages back and I thought it would be a dope idea to redo it on close to OG form for the release
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That was that

Broke it down like Rain Man
 
what nt09 said is accurate, that's the actual formula for calculating probability. However, the other part of the theory is that with each independent event added, the closer the actual yield will approach the theoretical yield. Again, this is all assuming all raffles have the same number of entrants, which in reality, they most certainly will not. You could actually hurt your chances if you entered too many raffles with too large of disparities in the number of entrants. Think about this Dilbert, do you really believe you have a better chance of winning than me if i were to enter a raffle with 10 other entrants, compared to you entering 3 raffles, with each pool having 10, 24, and 100 other entrants respectively??
 
Dang emails going out and my inbox dry. [emoji]128078[/emoji][emoji]127998[/emoji][emoji]128078[/emoji][emoji]127998[/emoji][emoji]128542[/emoji]
 
Zombifed Nach0 said:
Dude was dropping knowledge.
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Great work in posting the video. I think everyone in this thread should watch it. Dude was talking about not getting Jays when he was young as they could not afford them and saying as long as your parents love you thats all that matters. Also don't bully kids just because they can't afford Jays.

There is much more important things in life then Jays

One of the best videos I have seen posted on NT
 
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Jordan 23 said:
 
Great work in posting the video. I think everyone in this thread should watch it. Dude was talking about not getting Jays when he was young as they could not afford them and saying as long as your parents love you thats all that matters. Also don't bully kids just because they can't afford Jays.

There is much more important things in life then Jays

One of the best videos I have seen posted on NT
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All that should be common sense.
 
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