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Hill is ruled out for the series.
LinkLos Angeles Lakers. True story: The Spurs' powerhouse offense scored just 95.8 per 100 possessions in three head-to-head games against the Lakers. That mark would have ranked dead last for the season, and Robert Sacre started at center in one of those games. Dwight Howard sat out that game with an injury, and that happened to be the only time in three tries the real Tony Parker showed up against L.A.; Parker, just recovering from an ankle injury when these teams last played, shot 12-of-21 in those three games with Howard on the bench and just 7-of-23 when the big fella played, per NBA.com.
The sample size is obviously tiny, but the film reveals something: The Spurs offense looked pretty gummy against the long-armed Lakers. The court looked tighter than usual with the Tiago Splitter–Tim Duncan combination facing the giant Pau Gasol–Howard duo, and the Lakers didn't seem especially concerned with Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green on the perimeter.[COLOR=#red]5[/COLOR] Howard's presence visibly unnerved Parker on Sunday in Los Angeles, though, again, Parker was working off some rust. The Lakers actually did quite well containing the Spurs' pet side pick-and-rolls to one side of the floor, clogging Parker's passing lanes to the weak side, and forcing Parker to kick the ball to a big man at the foul line. Here's a screenshot from a Parker-Splitter side pick-and-roll, with Duncan filling in behind the play:
That strategy will yield some open Duncan 20-footers, but the Lakers will live with that. The Spurs are almost mean in picking on an opponent's weaker big man — Al Jefferson is still having nightmares about last season's playoffs — but if the Lakers stick Gasol on Splitter, it will be interesting to see how willing Gregg Popovich is to turn San Antonio's pick-and-roll game over to Splitter just for the sake of targeting Gasol.
The Spurs have been slumping offensively for more than a month, and though much of that came with one or both of Duncan and Parker sitting, this team just isn't whole right now. Manu Ginobili's status is uncertain, Parker is recovering, and Boris Diaw is gone. Diaw's minutes were down already, but he provides a useful combination of passing, shooting, and dribbling from the power forward spot, and the Spurs don't have a great replacement ready — especially since the coldhearted release of Stephen Jackson makes it trickier for San Antonio to go small. Matt Bonner's open looks always seem to close in the playoffs, and the Lakers will happily play off DeJuan Blair to clog things up elsewhere.[COLOR=#red]6[/COLOR]
Look, the Lakers have been bad defensively all season. They're lucky the Spurs aren't a transition machine beyond Parker (and occasionally Leonard), and they'll surrender some open looks when they allow Parker to get to the middle on side pick-and-rolls:
But a limping Spurs team isn't a bad matchup for the Lakers. They probably can't generate enough offense to win it, but don't be shocked if they limit the Spurs scoring machine.
[COLOR=#red]5. [/COLOR]The Lakers struggled defensively most of the season with Gasol and Howard on the floor, but things have tightened up in the last half-dozen games, and they held San Antonio to a piddling 92 points per 100 possessions in Gasol-Howard minutes this season, per NBA.com.
[COLOR=#red]6[/COLOR] Yes, Tracy McGrady might fill that role. No one has a clue if he's ready to play.
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