Leftovers was running so I rewatched it.
Yea, I'm definitely 100% convinced the hug story was made up, just by the words he uses when he tells it.
For instance, he says "....she just abandoned it in a rest stop bathroom, and the baby was crying I didn't know what to do, I was alone, so I looked to the ceiling and said Help. Not to God, not to anyone, I just said it, and then 10 seconds later I hear a knock on the door, and it was Wayne."
When you are telling a story like that it seems more natural to say, "and then immediately I hear a knock" "and a few seconds later I hear a knock" not specifically 10 seconds later
When people are lying to you things sound rehearsed, or too good, or too specific.
We don't know if the hugs are real yet, but that story sure isn't. He can't hug **** away