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hawaiiWhich states are still in lockdown? I know California is.
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hawaiiWhich states are still in lockdown? I know California is.
Only 45% of Americans mask up? It sounds about right but how did they get that number?A new COVID-19 forecast predicts more than 400,000 deaths by the end of 2020. Will the fall wave really be that big?
After a spring that saw America’s coronavirus toll spiking to more than 36,000 cases and 2,700 deaths per day, followed by a summer in which daily cases climbed as high as 75,000 and daily deaths again cleared 1,400, it appears for the moment that the overall trajectory of the U.S. pandemic is headed in the right direction. On average, new daily cases are back down to 36,000. Daily deaths have fallen to about 700.
So is it time to freak out about the fall?
Maybe not just yet.
On Thursday, the team at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released its latest pandemic forecast. It was not encouraging. In the likeliest scenario, the IHME researchers now predict that an additional 220,000 people will die of COVID-19 by the end of 2020, bringing America’s total death toll to 410,000 and more than doubling the current tally of 190,000, which took the U.S. nine tragic months to reach, in less than half that time.
Estimated daily infections — which include all reported cases plus those undetected by testing, and which the IHME currently pegs around 140,000 — would nearly triple to 373,000 by mid-November. In early December, daily deaths would surpass April highs.
And things could get even worse than that, the institute warns. If, for instance, America continues “the gradual easing of social distancing mandates” and refuses to “re-impose” them even if the pandemic worsens — essentially pursuing the sort of natural “herd immunity” strategy that President Trump’s new coronavirus adviser favors — then the IHME predicts that total U.S. COVID-19 deaths would soar to 620,000 by the end of the year, with daily deaths surpassing 12,000 and daily infections surging to 1.8 million.
The only way to keep the death count below 300,000 this year, according to the IHME, is for everyone — that is, 95 percent of Americans — to immediately start wearing a mask whenever they leave the house. Given that just 45 percent of Americans currently mask up in public, that’s probably not going to happen.
A new COVID-19 forecast predicts more than 400,000 deaths by the end of 2020. Will the fall wave really be that big?
Experts have long feared that colder weather and other factors could create a fall wave of the coronavirus with the potential to dwarf previous peaks — and America’s most prominent COVID-19 modelers are projecting just that. So is it time to freak out about the fall? Maybe not just yet.www.yahoo.com
This forecast is heavily flawed. There's just way too much uncertainty about how things will look 2-4 months from now. 400k is certainly possible but 250k or so is much more likely.A new COVID-19 forecast predicts more than 400,000 deaths by the end of 2020. Will the fall wave really be that big?
After a spring that saw America’s coronavirus toll spiking to more than 36,000 cases and 2,700 deaths per day, followed by a summer in which daily cases climbed as high as 75,000 and daily deaths again cleared 1,400, it appears for the moment that the overall trajectory of the U.S. pandemic is headed in the right direction. On average, new daily cases are back down to 36,000. Daily deaths have fallen to about 700.
So is it time to freak out about the fall?
Maybe not just yet.
On Thursday, the team at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released its latest pandemic forecast. It was not encouraging. In the likeliest scenario, the IHME researchers now predict that an additional 220,000 people will die of COVID-19 by the end of 2020, bringing America’s total death toll to 410,000 and more than doubling the current tally of 190,000, which took the U.S. nine tragic months to reach, in less than half that time.
Estimated daily infections — which include all reported cases plus those undetected by testing, and which the IHME currently pegs around 140,000 — would nearly triple to 373,000 by mid-November. In early December, daily deaths would surpass April highs.
And things could get even worse than that, the institute warns. If, for instance, America continues “the gradual easing of social distancing mandates” and refuses to “re-impose” them even if the pandemic worsens — essentially pursuing the sort of natural “herd immunity” strategy that President Trump’s new coronavirus adviser favors — then the IHME predicts that total U.S. COVID-19 deaths would soar to 620,000 by the end of the year, with daily deaths surpassing 12,000 and daily infections surging to 1.8 million.
The only way to keep the death count below 300,000 this year, according to the IHME, is for everyone — that is, 95 percent of Americans — to immediately start wearing a mask whenever they leave the house. Given that just 45 percent of Americans currently mask up in public, that’s probably not going to happen.
A new COVID-19 forecast predicts more than 400,000 deaths by the end of 2020. Will the fall wave really be that big?
Experts have long feared that colder weather and other factors could create a fall wave of the coronavirus with the potential to dwarf previous peaks — and America’s most prominent COVID-19 modelers are projecting just that. So is it time to freak out about the fall? Maybe not just yet.www.yahoo.com
This forecast is heavily flawed. There's just way too much uncertainty about how things will look 2-4 months from now. 400k is certainly possible but 250k or so is much more likely.
We're going to get ~750 deaths/day for the next month, so about 20k per month.What makes you say 400k is unlikely but 250k is more likely.
It's a very low-yield screening tool. What we need is rapid saliva tests. The technology is there. I think it just needs approval.Why the F would you end this minimum safety precaution?
Temperature checks for some air passengers will end next week
The federal government is changing the way it screens travelers from China and certain other countries. Beginning next week, the government plans to end the current system of temperature checks and…www.8newsnow.com
It's a very low-yield screening tool. What we need is rapid saliva tests. The technology is there. I think it just needs approval.
Someone needs to get knocked the F out.
you can really and truly feel the entitled indignance in this note...it´s leaking from every letter.
this is a person who has not been told ¨no¨ since being an actual toddler.
big BIG B I G M A D
it´s ****ing delicious.
This person seems upset, but I am not a clinical psychologist.
you can really and truly feel the entitled indignance in this note...it´s leaking from every letter.
this is a person who has not been told ¨no¨ since being an actual toddler.
big BIG B I G M A D
it´s ****ing delicious.
This person seems upset, but I am not a clinical psychologist.
American Airlines has confirmed the incident involving the offensive note and said it is investigating.
Airline spokesman Curtis Blessing told McClatchy News in a statement that the passenger's ability to fly American has been suspended.
'Our flight attendants are professionals who play a critical role in ensuring the health and safety of our passengers, and we will not tolerate mistreatment of them,' he added.
But if they say temp of 100.4 is a common symptom, using a temp gun when you talk to immigration guard isn’t much time. Or using those thermal screen screens. People get tagged for further questioning for less.
I agree with both of you. It is low cost and low effort. It's just that it's not foolproof, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't use it.I've seen the temp check catch a few folks who may have lied. So it may be low yield, but it's also low effort so it's worth keeping.
The stay at homes have been a ******* joke. It’s embarrassinghawaii
To follow-up on my previous post, here's a reason why 400k is likely:What makes you say 400k is unlikely but 250k is more likely.
some of the closures have been idiotic. the orders have been stupid. a parent and their kids can’t sit on the beach but some loser with no friends can?The stay at homes have been a ****ing joke. It’s embarrassing
I read today hawaii is currently the only state that has not let some retail business reopen.