Hide Ya Wives, Hide Ya Kids: Worldwide Coronavirus Pandemic!

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What a painful read:


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Emails obtained by POLITICO show Paul Alexander — a senior adviser to Michael Caputo, HHS’s assistant secretary for public affairs — instructing press officers and others at the National Institutes of Health about what Fauci should say during media interviews. The Trump adviser weighed in on Fauci’s planned responses to outlets including Bloomberg News, BuzzFeed, Huffington Post and the science journal Cell.
"

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“I think over time as I examine the good nonrandomized research, well conducted, strong methods, then I am saying that RCT evidence should not be considered the gold standard,” Alexander said.
"
:oo

The Trump admin is surrounding itself with pseudoscientific frauds. No wonder 193,000 people have died.
 
A new COVID-19 forecast predicts more than 400,000 deaths by the end of 2020. Will the fall wave really be that big?

After a spring that saw America’s coronavirus toll spiking to more than 36,000 cases and 2,700 deaths per day, followed by a summer in which daily cases climbed as high as 75,000 and daily deaths again cleared 1,400, it appears for the moment that the overall trajectory of the U.S. pandemic is headed in the right direction. On average, new daily cases are back down to 36,000. Daily deaths have fallen to about 700.



So is it time to freak out about the fall?

Maybe not just yet.

On Thursday, the team at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released its latest pandemic forecast. It was not encouraging. In the likeliest scenario, the IHME researchers now predict that an additional 220,000 people will die of COVID-19 by the end of 2020, bringing America’s total death toll to 410,000 and more than doubling the current tally of 190,000, which took the U.S. nine tragic months to reach, in less than half that time.

Estimated daily infections — which include all reported cases plus those undetected by testing, and which the IHME currently pegs around 140,000 — would nearly triple to 373,000 by mid-November. In early December, daily deaths would surpass April highs.

And things could get even worse than that, the institute warns. If, for instance, America continues “the gradual easing of social distancing mandates” and refuses to “re-impose” them even if the pandemic worsens — essentially pursuing the sort of natural “herd immunity” strategy that President Trump’s new coronavirus adviser favors — then the IHME predicts that total U.S. COVID-19 deaths would soar to 620,000 by the end of the year, with daily deaths surpassing 12,000 and daily infections surging to 1.8 million.

The only way to keep the death count below 300,000 this year, according to the IHME, is for everyone — that is, 95 percent of Americans — to immediately start wearing a mask whenever they leave the house. Given that just 45 percent of Americans currently mask up in public, that’s probably not going to happen.

 
A new COVID-19 forecast predicts more than 400,000 deaths by the end of 2020. Will the fall wave really be that big?

After a spring that saw America’s coronavirus toll spiking to more than 36,000 cases and 2,700 deaths per day, followed by a summer in which daily cases climbed as high as 75,000 and daily deaths again cleared 1,400, it appears for the moment that the overall trajectory of the U.S. pandemic is headed in the right direction. On average, new daily cases are back down to 36,000. Daily deaths have fallen to about 700.



So is it time to freak out about the fall?

Maybe not just yet.

On Thursday, the team at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released its latest pandemic forecast. It was not encouraging. In the likeliest scenario, the IHME researchers now predict that an additional 220,000 people will die of COVID-19 by the end of 2020, bringing America’s total death toll to 410,000 and more than doubling the current tally of 190,000, which took the U.S. nine tragic months to reach, in less than half that time.

Estimated daily infections — which include all reported cases plus those undetected by testing, and which the IHME currently pegs around 140,000 — would nearly triple to 373,000 by mid-November. In early December, daily deaths would surpass April highs.

And things could get even worse than that, the institute warns. If, for instance, America continues “the gradual easing of social distancing mandates” and refuses to “re-impose” them even if the pandemic worsens — essentially pursuing the sort of natural “herd immunity” strategy that President Trump’s new coronavirus adviser favors — then the IHME predicts that total U.S. COVID-19 deaths would soar to 620,000 by the end of the year, with daily deaths surpassing 12,000 and daily infections surging to 1.8 million.

The only way to keep the death count below 300,000 this year, according to the IHME, is for everyone — that is, 95 percent of Americans — to immediately start wearing a mask whenever they leave the house. Given that just 45 percent of Americans currently mask up in public, that’s probably not going to happen.

Only 45% of Americans mask up? It sounds about right but how did they get that number?

I’m hoping fall/winter doesn’t get bad. You would think that with masks and constant hand washing Even the common cold and flu will be subdued this year more than years past
 
A new COVID-19 forecast predicts more than 400,000 deaths by the end of 2020. Will the fall wave really be that big?

After a spring that saw America’s coronavirus toll spiking to more than 36,000 cases and 2,700 deaths per day, followed by a summer in which daily cases climbed as high as 75,000 and daily deaths again cleared 1,400, it appears for the moment that the overall trajectory of the U.S. pandemic is headed in the right direction. On average, new daily cases are back down to 36,000. Daily deaths have fallen to about 700.



So is it time to freak out about the fall?

Maybe not just yet.

On Thursday, the team at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released its latest pandemic forecast. It was not encouraging. In the likeliest scenario, the IHME researchers now predict that an additional 220,000 people will die of COVID-19 by the end of 2020, bringing America’s total death toll to 410,000 and more than doubling the current tally of 190,000, which took the U.S. nine tragic months to reach, in less than half that time.

Estimated daily infections — which include all reported cases plus those undetected by testing, and which the IHME currently pegs around 140,000 — would nearly triple to 373,000 by mid-November. In early December, daily deaths would surpass April highs.

And things could get even worse than that, the institute warns. If, for instance, America continues “the gradual easing of social distancing mandates” and refuses to “re-impose” them even if the pandemic worsens — essentially pursuing the sort of natural “herd immunity” strategy that President Trump’s new coronavirus adviser favors — then the IHME predicts that total U.S. COVID-19 deaths would soar to 620,000 by the end of the year, with daily deaths surpassing 12,000 and daily infections surging to 1.8 million.

The only way to keep the death count below 300,000 this year, according to the IHME, is for everyone — that is, 95 percent of Americans — to immediately start wearing a mask whenever they leave the house. Given that just 45 percent of Americans currently mask up in public, that’s probably not going to happen.

This forecast is heavily flawed. There's just way too much uncertainty about how things will look 2-4 months from now. 400k is certainly possible but 250k or so is much more likely.
 



 
What makes you say 400k is unlikely but 250k is more likely.
We're going to get ~750 deaths/day for the next month, so about 20k per month.

Even with the surge in the summer, we only really got up to 1000/day at the peak. But cases are trending down in most places, so deaths will probably stay in the 500-750/day range for a while.

There's a lot of uncertainty about a couple things. First is the impact of immunity on spread. Some models say that, once the first 15-20% get covid and become immune, it becomes much harder for it to spread rapidly in the community. But this is just theory for now. Second is the impact of cold weather and an overlapping flu season. It's possible we get a lot more transmission because of that and a lot more mortality because of the flu. Third is whether people will keep up compliance with masks and social distancing. People are getting fatigued by this, but also people have gotten in the habit of wearing masks. So each of these factors could swing the deaths in either direction, either down below 500/day or back in the 1000+ range. The IHME model assumes the worst in all 3 (spread isn't slowed, cold weather leads to more cases, and people stop wearing masks). So 400k could happen, but it's unlikely. Also, new treatments will continue to blunt the impact of covid.
 
Why the F would you end this minimum safety precaution?

It's a very low-yield screening tool. What we need is rapid saliva tests. The technology is there. I think it just needs approval.
 
It's a very low-yield screening tool. What we need is rapid saliva tests. The technology is there. I think it just needs approval.

But if they say temp of 100.4 is a common symptom, using a temp gun when you talk to immigration guard isn’t much time. Or using those thermal screen screens. People get tagged for further questioning for less.
 
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you can really and truly feel the entitled indignance in this note...it´s leaking from every letter.

this is a person who has not been told ¨no¨ since being an actual toddler.

big BIG B I G M A D

it´s ****ing delicious.
Someone needs to get knocked the F out.
 
This person seems upset, but I am not a clinical psychologist.

probably at first, but just look at the prize they won for their skillful gameplay!


American Airlines has confirmed the incident involving the offensive note and said it is investigating.

Airline spokesman Curtis Blessing told McClatchy News in a statement that the passenger's ability to fly American has been suspended.

'Our flight attendants are professionals who play a critical role in ensuring the health and safety of our passengers, and we will not tolerate mistreatment of them,' he added.

I TOLD YOU this **** was ******* delicious!
 
But if they say temp of 100.4 is a common symptom, using a temp gun when you talk to immigration guard isn’t much time. Or using those thermal screen screens. People get tagged for further questioning for less.
I've seen the temp check catch a few folks who may have lied. So it may be low yield, but it's also low effort so it's worth keeping.
I agree with both of you. It is low cost and low effort. It's just that it's not foolproof, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't use it.
 
Good thread about Sweden. They have not achieved herd immunity. They have actually pursued many of the same restrictions that we have in place. They didn't lockdown like we did initially, but they haven't been fully open either.

 
The stay at homes have been a ****ing joke. It’s embarrassing

I read today hawaii is currently the only state that has not let some retail business reopen.
some of the closures have been idiotic. the orders have been stupid. a parent and their kids can’t sit on the beach but some loser with no friends can?
 
Reading that another vaccine trial may have lead to neurological symptoms in the test subject. They will conduct testing to see if the condition is a result of the vaccine.
 
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