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Lakers NBA Playoffs scenarios: Ranking their potential opponents from worst to best matchup
The Lakers’ 121-107 win over the Phoenix Suns on Friday at Crypto.com Arena — ugly as it was at times — kept the team’s goal of avoiding the Play-In tournament alive.
Los Angeles (42-39) has won eight of its past 10 games and is currently the No. 7 seed in their West. Still, their postseason fate is unclear and partially out of their control. They can only escape the Play-In tournament if the Warriors lose on Sunday and/or the Clippers lose their final two games. Technically, they can finish anywhere between seeds No. 5-8 as of Friday evening.
As the Lakers prepare for their various scenarios, they aren’t favoring a particular opponent or outcome — aside from simply avoiding the Play-In, if possible.
“Me personally, I won’t say any names, but I’ve been on staffs where you’re trying (to think), ‘Would I rather face this opponent?’” Lakers head coach Darvin Ham said Wednesday. “You have to be careful with that. Because you just may get what you ask for. You get this opponent that you think you have an advantage over and you get blown out of the water.”
The Lakers’ locker room was buzzing with hypotheticals after their Suns win. Players discussed the various scenarios — tiebreakers, potential Play-In dates, etc. — amid the uncertainty. At this point, Los Angeles appears in line to make the playoffs, though most likely as the No. 7 seed via the Play-In tournament.
In a similar sense, assuming they make the playoffs, it’s fair to wonder: Which opponent would be the best matchup? Which would be the worst?
Here are the Lakers’ four possible first-round opponents — the No. 1 Denver Nuggets, the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies, the No. 3 Sacramento Kings and the No. 4 Phoenix Suns – ranked from least to most favorable.
4. Phoenix Suns
Offensive rating: 114.5 (14th)
Defensive rating: 112.2 (7th)
Net rating: +2.3 (9th)
Season series: 2-2
The Lakers’ chances of landing the No. 5 seed are low after Wednesday’s loss to the Clippers. They’d need to beat the Jazz, have the Clippers lose their final two games and the Warriors fall to the tanking Trail Blazers on Sunday. Those odds are slim to none.
That’s actually the silver lining to the Lakers losing to their hallway foes. At full strength, Phoenix projects as the best team in the West. With Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, the Suns have two top-15 players. At his peak, Durant is the best pure scorer in the NBA, and perhaps the best the league has ever seen. Booker is the best No. 2 option — if it’s even fair to call him that — among the West’s top four. The Suns have largely dominated the Lakers since their 2021 first-round series win.
The Suns are 8-0 with Durant, implying they’re a juggernaut hiding in plain sight. They’re outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions with Durant on the floor, with an offensive rating (117.7) that would rank second in the league and a defensive rating (107.0) that would rank first. They’re not quite at Durant-Steph Curry Warriors levels, but they’re beginning to look like a group that could make a Finals run in the wide-open West.
Of course, there are reasons why the Lakers could prefer the matchup. Phoenix will likely be more vulnerable earlier in the postseason, before they’re battle-tested and in rhythm. Chris Paul isn’t the player he was two years when the Suns beat the Lakers. Remember: the Lakers were up 2-1 on the Suns in 2021 before Anthony Davis went down in Game 4 with a groin injury. They don’t have answers for Davis or LeBron James. The Suns rank 28th in the NBA in free throws allowed per game, indicating that the paint-heavy Lakers could exploit Phoenix’s over-aggressive tendencies.
This is the one potential Lakers matchup — with Denver being the other — in which an opponent could claim to have the best player in the series. Durant has been better than James and Davis over the past couple of seasons. Throw in their 3-point shooting skill, and the chemistry and continuity of their core, and Phoenix projects as the Lakers’ toughest possible first-round opponent.
3. Denver Nuggets
Offensive rating: 117.0 (3rd)
Defensive rating: 113.7 (17th, tie)
Net rating: +3.3 (6th)
Season series: 2-2
The downside to facing Denver in the first round is that it would mean Los Angeles lost its first Play-In game and had to play in the second matchup on Friday. Adding two extra games to their slate would deplete an already tired group, as well as sap some of the Lakers’ recent momentum.
The Lakers and the Nuggets also have playoff history, dating back to the 2020 Western Conference Finals. Last summer, former Laker and current Nugget Kentavious Caldwell-Pope said he thinks Los Angeles would’ve lost to Denver if not for Davis’ buzzer beater in Game 2. While Caldwell-Pope’s comments may have been motivated by earning brownie points with his new team and fan base, that series was closer than the 4-1 outcome suggested.
Denver has gotten much better since then. Nikola Jokić is in the running for his third straight MVP and is a top-five player in the league at worst. Outside of Davis, the Lakers don’t have a player who can hang with Jokić in the post. The Jokić-Jamal Murray pick-and-roll is a proven weapon that would shred the Lakers’ drop coverages and force Ham to adjust. Denver has elite ball movement, player movement and shooting. They’re good on the glass. Aaron Gordon has done an underrated job defending James in recent years.
At the same time, Davis is the type of big that can give Jokić trouble. He’s capable of banging with him in the post, pressuring him around the elbows and 3-point arc, then attacking him on the other end. James will relentlessly target Jokić and Michael Porter Jr. in pick-and-rolls. The Lakers just don’t fear the Nuggets.
Despite being the No. 1 team in the West, the Nuggets aren’t as scary as the Suns. Nonetheless, they’re a legitimate contender, and the Lakers would be underdogs.
2. Memphis Grizzlies
Offensive rating: 114.9 (10th)
Defensive rating: 110.6 (3rd)
Net rating: +4.2 (3rd)
Season series: 2-1 Lakers
This is the most likely scenario, given the Lakers’ postseason odds and potential outcomes point to them finishing with the No. 7 seed. Lakers-Grizzlies would be the most exciting first-round series, if only for all of the histrionics that would come with the matchup. The teams have had beef going on for at least a couple of years now, culminating in the infamous Shannon Sharpe near-altercation that temporarily derailed the Grizzlies’ season. Each game between these two is guaranteed to have at least one dust-up or hold-me-back moment.
Deciding which of Denver and Memphis is a better matchup for the Lakers is tough. The Grizzlies have the best defense among these four teams by a comfortable margin (though Phoenix’s defense has remained impressive sans Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson). Ja Morant is one of the 12-to-15 best players in the league. He’s a maestro and has already sliced up the Lakers this season. Jaren Jackson Jr. is the Defensive Player of the Year favorite — a shot-blocking menace who can suffocate an opposing offense. Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks are stout wing defenders that can hold their own against James and Russell. Bane is the type of defense-bending shooter that can swing a game or two.
On the other hand, Memphis has the worst offense of these four teams. (The Suns ranked lower in the regular season, but that was mostly without Durant). The Grizzlies has primarily been a below-average 3-point shooting team in terms of percentage. That’s important for a Lakers group that has improved its own shooting, but is still inconsistent beyond the arc. The uncertainty surrounding Grizzlies center Steven Adams’ return and the guaranteed absence of backup big Brandon Clarke put Memphis’ interior defense and rebounding somewhat in flux. Jackson Jr. is foul-prone, so can he hold up against Davis over a seven-game series? What about Xavier Tillman?
The Grizzlies are far from an ideal matchup. They’re young, athletic, tough and physical. They like to talk trash and muck up the game. There’s a psychological component to dealing with them, especially in a seven-game series. Picking between them and Denver is splitting hairs. But Jokić’s greatness, as well as the Grizzlies’ interior holes with Adams and Clarke injured, make the Nuggets the tougher opponent.
1. Sacramento Kings
Offensive rating: 118.9 (1st)
Defensive rating: 116.1 (25th)
Net rating: +2.8 (8th)
Season series: 3-1 Kings
Landing the No. 6 seed and a matchup with the No. 3 Kings would be the Lakers’ dream outcome. The consensus around those with the Lakers is that, while no first-round series will be easy without home-court advantage, the Kings are the preferred opponent. Of course, to Ham’s point, the Kings are also the opponent that every Western Conference team in the bottom half of the bracket wants to face.
There are several reasons why the Lakers (and others) want the Kings. Sacramento is a relatively green group, without individual or collective playoff experience. They don’t boast the same multi-year continuity as Denver or Memphis. Even Phoenix, while something of a wild card because of the Durant trade, has a core — Booker, Paul, Ayton, Cameron Payne — that made a Finals run together. Though Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are both potential All-NBA players this season, they don’t inspire the same fear in opponents as Durant, Booker, Jokić or Morant.
The Kings’ bottom-six defense would have the Lakers salivating. Davis and James would feast in the paint; James scored 31-plus points in three of the four regular-season matchups. The Kings don’t have an answer for either Lakers superstar. Meanwhile, the Lakers can deploy Davis on Sabonis, with Jarred Vanderbilt enveloping Fox at the point of attack as the type of lockdown wing defender most point guards struggle against in the postseason.
The counterargument to facing the Kings is they posted the best offensive rating in NBA history. Sacramento takes care of the ball, has multiple elite shooters and gets to the free-throw line. They’re going to test the Lakers’ league-leading defense post-trade deadline — as well as their offense, in terms of forcing the Lakers to score to keep up during stretches of games. Kings head coach Mike Brown has familiarity with the most effective schemes and strategies against James, from coaching him in Cleveland and going against him in the Finals as an assistant coach with the Warriors. Sabonis is a beast. Fox is a blur.
Sacramento is a tougher matchup than many casual fans assume. That said, the Kings would be the most favorable first-round matchup for the Lakers — at least in comparison to the other three opponents.
The Lakers’ 121-107 win over the Phoenix Suns on Friday at Crypto.com Arena — ugly as it was at times — kept the team’s goal of avoiding the Play-In tournament alive.
Los Angeles (42-39) has won eight of its past 10 games and is currently the No. 7 seed in their West. Still, their postseason fate is unclear and partially out of their control. They can only escape the Play-In tournament if the Warriors lose on Sunday and/or the Clippers lose their final two games. Technically, they can finish anywhere between seeds No. 5-8 as of Friday evening.
As the Lakers prepare for their various scenarios, they aren’t favoring a particular opponent or outcome — aside from simply avoiding the Play-In, if possible.
“Me personally, I won’t say any names, but I’ve been on staffs where you’re trying (to think), ‘Would I rather face this opponent?’” Lakers head coach Darvin Ham said Wednesday. “You have to be careful with that. Because you just may get what you ask for. You get this opponent that you think you have an advantage over and you get blown out of the water.”
The Lakers’ locker room was buzzing with hypotheticals after their Suns win. Players discussed the various scenarios — tiebreakers, potential Play-In dates, etc. — amid the uncertainty. At this point, Los Angeles appears in line to make the playoffs, though most likely as the No. 7 seed via the Play-In tournament.
In a similar sense, assuming they make the playoffs, it’s fair to wonder: Which opponent would be the best matchup? Which would be the worst?
Here are the Lakers’ four possible first-round opponents — the No. 1 Denver Nuggets, the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies, the No. 3 Sacramento Kings and the No. 4 Phoenix Suns – ranked from least to most favorable.
4. Phoenix Suns
Offensive rating: 114.5 (14th)
Defensive rating: 112.2 (7th)
Net rating: +2.3 (9th)
Season series: 2-2
The Lakers’ chances of landing the No. 5 seed are low after Wednesday’s loss to the Clippers. They’d need to beat the Jazz, have the Clippers lose their final two games and the Warriors fall to the tanking Trail Blazers on Sunday. Those odds are slim to none.
That’s actually the silver lining to the Lakers losing to their hallway foes. At full strength, Phoenix projects as the best team in the West. With Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, the Suns have two top-15 players. At his peak, Durant is the best pure scorer in the NBA, and perhaps the best the league has ever seen. Booker is the best No. 2 option — if it’s even fair to call him that — among the West’s top four. The Suns have largely dominated the Lakers since their 2021 first-round series win.
The Suns are 8-0 with Durant, implying they’re a juggernaut hiding in plain sight. They’re outscoring opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions with Durant on the floor, with an offensive rating (117.7) that would rank second in the league and a defensive rating (107.0) that would rank first. They’re not quite at Durant-Steph Curry Warriors levels, but they’re beginning to look like a group that could make a Finals run in the wide-open West.
Of course, there are reasons why the Lakers could prefer the matchup. Phoenix will likely be more vulnerable earlier in the postseason, before they’re battle-tested and in rhythm. Chris Paul isn’t the player he was two years when the Suns beat the Lakers. Remember: the Lakers were up 2-1 on the Suns in 2021 before Anthony Davis went down in Game 4 with a groin injury. They don’t have answers for Davis or LeBron James. The Suns rank 28th in the NBA in free throws allowed per game, indicating that the paint-heavy Lakers could exploit Phoenix’s over-aggressive tendencies.
This is the one potential Lakers matchup — with Denver being the other — in which an opponent could claim to have the best player in the series. Durant has been better than James and Davis over the past couple of seasons. Throw in their 3-point shooting skill, and the chemistry and continuity of their core, and Phoenix projects as the Lakers’ toughest possible first-round opponent.
3. Denver Nuggets
Offensive rating: 117.0 (3rd)
Defensive rating: 113.7 (17th, tie)
Net rating: +3.3 (6th)
Season series: 2-2
The downside to facing Denver in the first round is that it would mean Los Angeles lost its first Play-In game and had to play in the second matchup on Friday. Adding two extra games to their slate would deplete an already tired group, as well as sap some of the Lakers’ recent momentum.
The Lakers and the Nuggets also have playoff history, dating back to the 2020 Western Conference Finals. Last summer, former Laker and current Nugget Kentavious Caldwell-Pope said he thinks Los Angeles would’ve lost to Denver if not for Davis’ buzzer beater in Game 2. While Caldwell-Pope’s comments may have been motivated by earning brownie points with his new team and fan base, that series was closer than the 4-1 outcome suggested.
Denver has gotten much better since then. Nikola Jokić is in the running for his third straight MVP and is a top-five player in the league at worst. Outside of Davis, the Lakers don’t have a player who can hang with Jokić in the post. The Jokić-Jamal Murray pick-and-roll is a proven weapon that would shred the Lakers’ drop coverages and force Ham to adjust. Denver has elite ball movement, player movement and shooting. They’re good on the glass. Aaron Gordon has done an underrated job defending James in recent years.
At the same time, Davis is the type of big that can give Jokić trouble. He’s capable of banging with him in the post, pressuring him around the elbows and 3-point arc, then attacking him on the other end. James will relentlessly target Jokić and Michael Porter Jr. in pick-and-rolls. The Lakers just don’t fear the Nuggets.
Despite being the No. 1 team in the West, the Nuggets aren’t as scary as the Suns. Nonetheless, they’re a legitimate contender, and the Lakers would be underdogs.
2. Memphis Grizzlies
Offensive rating: 114.9 (10th)
Defensive rating: 110.6 (3rd)
Net rating: +4.2 (3rd)
Season series: 2-1 Lakers
This is the most likely scenario, given the Lakers’ postseason odds and potential outcomes point to them finishing with the No. 7 seed. Lakers-Grizzlies would be the most exciting first-round series, if only for all of the histrionics that would come with the matchup. The teams have had beef going on for at least a couple of years now, culminating in the infamous Shannon Sharpe near-altercation that temporarily derailed the Grizzlies’ season. Each game between these two is guaranteed to have at least one dust-up or hold-me-back moment.
Deciding which of Denver and Memphis is a better matchup for the Lakers is tough. The Grizzlies have the best defense among these four teams by a comfortable margin (though Phoenix’s defense has remained impressive sans Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson). Ja Morant is one of the 12-to-15 best players in the league. He’s a maestro and has already sliced up the Lakers this season. Jaren Jackson Jr. is the Defensive Player of the Year favorite — a shot-blocking menace who can suffocate an opposing offense. Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks are stout wing defenders that can hold their own against James and Russell. Bane is the type of defense-bending shooter that can swing a game or two.
On the other hand, Memphis has the worst offense of these four teams. (The Suns ranked lower in the regular season, but that was mostly without Durant). The Grizzlies has primarily been a below-average 3-point shooting team in terms of percentage. That’s important for a Lakers group that has improved its own shooting, but is still inconsistent beyond the arc. The uncertainty surrounding Grizzlies center Steven Adams’ return and the guaranteed absence of backup big Brandon Clarke put Memphis’ interior defense and rebounding somewhat in flux. Jackson Jr. is foul-prone, so can he hold up against Davis over a seven-game series? What about Xavier Tillman?
The Grizzlies are far from an ideal matchup. They’re young, athletic, tough and physical. They like to talk trash and muck up the game. There’s a psychological component to dealing with them, especially in a seven-game series. Picking between them and Denver is splitting hairs. But Jokić’s greatness, as well as the Grizzlies’ interior holes with Adams and Clarke injured, make the Nuggets the tougher opponent.
1. Sacramento Kings
Offensive rating: 118.9 (1st)
Defensive rating: 116.1 (25th)
Net rating: +2.8 (8th)
Season series: 3-1 Kings
Landing the No. 6 seed and a matchup with the No. 3 Kings would be the Lakers’ dream outcome. The consensus around those with the Lakers is that, while no first-round series will be easy without home-court advantage, the Kings are the preferred opponent. Of course, to Ham’s point, the Kings are also the opponent that every Western Conference team in the bottom half of the bracket wants to face.
There are several reasons why the Lakers (and others) want the Kings. Sacramento is a relatively green group, without individual or collective playoff experience. They don’t boast the same multi-year continuity as Denver or Memphis. Even Phoenix, while something of a wild card because of the Durant trade, has a core — Booker, Paul, Ayton, Cameron Payne — that made a Finals run together. Though Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are both potential All-NBA players this season, they don’t inspire the same fear in opponents as Durant, Booker, Jokić or Morant.
The Kings’ bottom-six defense would have the Lakers salivating. Davis and James would feast in the paint; James scored 31-plus points in three of the four regular-season matchups. The Kings don’t have an answer for either Lakers superstar. Meanwhile, the Lakers can deploy Davis on Sabonis, with Jarred Vanderbilt enveloping Fox at the point of attack as the type of lockdown wing defender most point guards struggle against in the postseason.
The counterargument to facing the Kings is they posted the best offensive rating in NBA history. Sacramento takes care of the ball, has multiple elite shooters and gets to the free-throw line. They’re going to test the Lakers’ league-leading defense post-trade deadline — as well as their offense, in terms of forcing the Lakers to score to keep up during stretches of games. Kings head coach Mike Brown has familiarity with the most effective schemes and strategies against James, from coaching him in Cleveland and going against him in the Finals as an assistant coach with the Warriors. Sabonis is a beast. Fox is a blur.
Sacramento is a tougher matchup than many casual fans assume. That said, the Kings would be the most favorable first-round matchup for the Lakers — at least in comparison to the other three opponents.
