In those early years with the Suns, Barr had seen what John Wooden, Red Auerbach and Phil Jackson all preached: Going one-on-one, without the benefit of passing or other team actions, is seldom effective. Pick-and-rolls, cuts, coming off screens all deliver more points per possession. "Open looks," Barr says. "That's what it's all about." And over the years, as Synergy grew and its metrics became more complex, what Barr found only served to confirm his suspicions.
Start with the basics. The goal of basketball, in its simplest form, is to turn possessions into points. And on that basis, when Synergy began breaking down NBA plays by type in 2004, what it found would have made Wooden smile: Plays involving off-the-ball cuts (1.18 points per possession) and transition plays (1.12 ppp) are by far the most efficient, followed by putbacks (1.04 ppp) and pick-and-rolls in which the ball reaches the hands of the rolling man (0.97 ppp). And the least efficient? Isolation plays, good for only 0.78 points per possession.
Perhaps as a result of that dismal track record, of the 10 play types Synergy identified, isos are only the fourth most frequently run, accounting for just 12% of all plays in an average game. But in crunch time (defined by Synergy as the last five minutes of regulation and close overtime situations), their usage rose to 19 percent, second highest behind spot-up plays.
There was more. The stats revealed that when a player passes out of an iso, his team's points per possession rise from that woeful 0.78 to a more tolerable 0.93. Despite that, players pass out of isos only 20 percent of the time -- and only 16 percent during crunch time. If that player is the team's top iso threat, the number drops to 12 percent.
There it was, right before Barr's eyes: Go-to scorers in crunch time who are isolated against one or more defenders -- the very definition of hero ball -- almost never give up the basketball even though they are, in that moment, the least effective scorers on the court.