With their one-point victory in Portland on Monday, the Hornets are14-3 in games decided by five points or less this season. Combine thatwith a 1-7 record in games decided by 15 points or more and you have ateam with a negative point differential (-1.2 per game) and a winningrecord.
Their point differential says the Hornets should be 20-25 atthis point, yet instead they're 25-20. The Hornets sit in eighth placein the Western Conference, but statistically, three of the teams behindthem in the standings are better.
As it is, the Hornets' record is the most inflated mark in the league.
But this is not new. The Hornets have had a winning record in close games every season since they drafted Chris Paul,and they've had inflated records in four of those five seasons. Only in2007-08 did they win fewer games (56) than their point differentialsaid they should have (5
.
Intotal, the Hornets are 67-33 (.670) in games decided by five points orless in Paul's four-plus seasons. Only the Mavs (75-32, .701) have abetter record in close games in that span.
The Mavs' record in close games is comparable to their overall recordover the last five seasons. Dallas has the best overall winningpercentage (.692) in the league since the 2005-06 season, while theHornets are 12th (.555).
Since Paul came into the league, his team has been much better in closegames than they've been otherwise. The difference between their recordin close games and their record in not-so-close ones is the greatest inthe league in that timeframe.
But it's impossible to ignore how well the Hornets have done inclose games since Paul arrived in New Orleans. They simply play betterwhen a game comes down to the final minutes. And it makes some sense,given Paul's competitiveness and his ability to control possessions asthe best point guard in the league. Also, because the ball is in Paul'shands so much, the Hornets aren't as susceptible to the inconsistenciesof role players.
A look at their numbers this season shows that the Hornetsthrive in clutch situations (last five minutes of regulation orovertime, with a scoring margin of five points or less).
In non-clutch situations this season (2,052 minutes ofplaying time), the Hornets score just 104.0 points per 100 possessionsand allow 106.2. But in clutch situations (128 minutes), they score117.9 points per 100 possessions and allow just 96.2.
If only the Hornets played every game like it was close downthe stretch, they'd not only be the best offensive and best defensiveteam in the league, but they'd be 43-2!
The Hornets actually shoot worse in clutch situations than they dootherwise. But they rebound better, turn the ball over less and get tothe line more often …
a lot more often. They attempt almost twice as many free throws per possession in clutch situations than they do otherwise.
Paul, David West and James Poseyhave played the most clutch minutes for the Hornets this season, andall three have much higher free-throw rates in those situations thanthey do at other times of the game. And not only do they shoot themoften, they shoot them well. Paul and Posey are shooting a combined35-for-39 (89.7 percent) from the line in clutch situations this season.
Looking at the Hornets' defensive numbers, we note that theiropponents are actually shooting more free throws in clutch situationsthan they are, but the opponents (.760 FT percentage) don't shoot themas well as the Hornets do (.830 percent).
Contesting shots is where the Hornets excel down the stretch.Their opponents suffer a serious dropoff in shooting percentage in thefinal minutes of close games, both from 3-point range and inside thearc.
Can the Hornets keep this up? Are they really as 25-20 team, or will we see them come back down to earth?
The previous four seasons tell us that we might need to get used to an inflated record when Paul's running the show.
"We're used to this," Paul said after Monday's win over theBlazers. "We do this night in and night out. We don't do any blowouts.We don't believe in them."
It's hard to argue with the guy, because the numbers back him up.
