Kobe versus LeBron.
With the two rivals set to match up on Christmas Day, the familiar debate can begin anew.
This season, however, there are a few unusual twists. For starters, neither finds his team atop the NBA standings. James and Bryant were members of the top-seeded teams in their respective conferences each of the past two seasons, but the Heat and Lakers find themselves well behind the Celtics and Spurs at the moment.
Second, neither is atop the PER (player efficiency rating) charts, nor atop most MVP ballots. New Orleans'
Chris Paul leads the former, and several interlopers (most notably Dallas'
Dirk Nowitzki) have injected themselves into the race for the trophy won by James the past two seasons and Bryant the season before that.
Nonetheless, the biggest change isn't either of those two things, at least in terms of the one-on-one statistical contest these two have conducted from afar. Rather, it is that Bryant leads James in the current PER rankings -- it's the first time in four years that has happened. There's a certain irony to this -- for years, I've been assaulted by e-mail from Kobe's massive and unusually sensitive fan army asserting that PER is obvious foolishness because it ranks LeBron ahead of Kobe.
(Forgive my ornery mood, but I spent my morning watching the entire Warriors-Kings game, including the five extra minutes they subjected us to after Sacramento's
Francisco Garcia began an epic collapse with one of the most ill-advised jump shots in recent NBA history.).
The other edge of this ironic sword is that Bryant isn't having that great a year in the eyes of many. In part, that's because of his team's uneven play. Tuesday night's bomb against Milwaukee (capped by Kobe's F-bomb, as it turns out) dropped L.A. to 21-8 against the
league's easiest schedule) and put it five games behind the Spurs in the loss column, which is uncomfortable territory for a squad that began the year an overwhelming favorite to win the West.
But Bryant also is shooting with a fury some find unsettling, and perhaps a bit too reminiscent of his 2005-06 season. In that campaign, Bryant was unquestionably brilliant, averaging 35.4 points a game and hanging 81 on the Raptors, but L.A. won only 45 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs.
The kicker? That season and the next, despite a lack of team success, were the last times Bryant stood toe-to-toe with James in PER. Kobe's 28.11 was just a whisker shy of James' 28.17 in 2005-06, and his 26.13 topped James' 24.56 in 2006-07.
Since then, it's been all LeBron, with last season's advantage an overwhelming one -- James' 31.19 was one of the best marks in history, and Bryant's 21.95 was his worst in a decade.
How did that enormous gap close? Three big reasons stand out.
The first, obviously, is the return to health by Bryant after knee problems plagued him in the second half of last season. Bryant's 2009-10 stats now look out of place in the context of the rest of his career, with a five-year run in the mid-20s in PER interrupted by a sudden plunge to 21.95 a year ago. (Remember, by the way, that we're looking at regular-season stats. Bryant's brilliance in the Western Conference finals a year ago doesn't count here.)
Bryant certainly has become more shot-happy, with his usage rate his highest since the mad gunning of the 2005-06 campaign. But health seems to be the major reason for his surge -- compared with a year ago, he's converting more shots, turning it over less, rebounding more. Basically, he's just playing better all over. So why wouldn't he be more aggressive with the ball?
Moreover, focusing on his shot frequency is keying on the wrong end of the floor. L.A. is
third in the league in offensive efficiency despite not having
Andrew Bynum and getting almost nothing from the point guard spot (
Derek Fisher and
Steve Blake both having single-digit PERs). It's the Lakers' defense that has been more costly.
Alas, from a career perspective, the bigger PER shift this year has been not from Kobe but from LeBron. The second big reason for the gap closing this season is James' move to the Heat, which has reduced his touches enough to materially impact his PER. Compared with a year ago, James and Bryant have basically swapped usage rates, so that Bryant, not James, now
leads the league by a wide margin in that category. Thus, although James still produces more points per shot attempt, Bryant now averages more points per minute.
As for our third reason, it's the biggest, and it's also the simplest: James just hasn't played as well as in the past. For that, we can look first at his sky-high turnover rate. James has made miscues on 11.8 percent of the possessions he has used this season, a far cry from his usual mark of about 9.0 percent. In past seasons, turnover ratio has given James an edge in the head-to-head comparison with Bryant, but it's a major negative for LeBron this season.
Similarly, James' rebound rate has been oddly diminished in his new digs. His 10.2 rebound rate still ranks among the best among perimeter players, but he was over 11 for three straight years in Cleveland.
And you can go right down the list -- to the .467 shooting mark, his lowest since his rookie year, or the dramatic reduction in steals, or the career-low blocked shots (just 14 this year, and half as many per game as his last three years in Cleveland) … you get the idea.
Despite Miami's improved play of late, not all those issues have vanished. For instance, James has 30 turnovers in his past seven games despite playing mostly horrible defensive teams. He has blocked four shots the entire month and averages less than a steal per game. The only really notable change of late has been in his rebound rate, which has soared back to Cleveland-era levels this month.
Therefore, the CliffsNotes version of what happened is that Kobe has recovered to his normal level, while James' play has sunk back to Kobe's level -- and that's what makes the debate interesting again.
There's only one problem: The debate is only truly interesting if the two players stay at the top of the standings while remaining at the pinnacle of players at their respective positions. At the moment, you could find considerable debate on both propositions. This is unfortunate because we've spent the past two seasons breathlessly debating a "Who's better?" question that wasn't particularly close. It would be a shame if we lost interest just as the answer became less clear-cut.
in two-plus seasons with the Bobcats.
