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Yeah my big money league is the same, I’m trying to change it
***OFFICIAL 2019-20 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD (VOL. CALMA)***
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by champcruthik,
- Start date
Yeah my big money league is the same, I’m trying to change it
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Likewise
I’ve been doing mocks picking from different spots trying to get a feel. Wish I knew my draft position
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- May 2, 2012
Then again, if I can get a Howard, Goedert or even Waller late I'd be straight.
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Is Goedert really worth drafting with Ertz there ? Like honestly how many Targets is he going to see
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Maybe the hype has died down a bit, but I remember early summer people were looking his way to be a pretty important piece to the offense.
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Zero RB targets 5-1:
https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/08/2019-zero-rb-candidates-countdown-no-5-to-no-1/
https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/08/2019-zero-rb-candidates-countdown-no-5-to-no-1/
2019 Zero RB Candidates Countdown: No. 5 to No. 1
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Welcome to the 2019 Zero RB target list where we help you find inexpensive RBs to destroy your league. The list isn’t just for Zero RB owners. You can use the list to construct a Zero RB squad, to fill out your 1-Elite-RB roster, or to build Flex upside into a RB-heavy start.
With his 2018 picks hitting at a high rate, Shawn won his 11th high-stakes league at the Main Event level or higher and added to his double-digit totals in top-15 national finishes. The Zero RB selections also helped him snag his third MFL10 of Death title in four years.
In Part 1, we counted down the candidates from No. 15 to No. 11 and presented Zero RB evidence for 2019 that will pique the interest of the most hardened Robust RBers. In Part 2, we unveiled No. 10 through No. 6 and discussed the importance of selecting players in the Priority RB Window.
We also took a brief look at the Zero RB lists of yore and their breakout stars, including Devonta Freeman (2015), Melvin Gordon (2016), Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara (2017).
It would seem impossible to top those results, but the 2018 list was absolutely loaded. Jump back to Part 1 for that discussion and the full intro or zoom ahead to The List to see who shows up in Part 3.
The List
As long-time readers know, these will be arranged in order of ADP, starting with the least expensive. Between Rounds 6 and 18 in each individual draft, you’ll want to select six or seven of the 15 targets. This provides enough flexibility to let the best values fall to you.
No. 5 Royce Freeman
Freeman has his enthusiasts, but it’s easy to forget that if things had played out just slightly differently, he might be a first-round fantasy pick in 2019.
The former Duck was such a good collegiate player during his first two years at Oregon that he was selected ahead of Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey in one of my devy startups.1 He really was that good. He gained over 3,000 yards rushing during those two seasons, added another 500 yards receiving, and scored 38 touchdowns.2
Our research indicates that early production is one of the key elements for RB evaluation. Few RBs are as prolific as early as Freeman, and this is reflected in a huge First-Year Workhorse Score.
The first unfortunate fork in the path occurred during Freeman’s junior year where he played through injury to middling results and decided not to declare for the NFL draft.
He rehabbed a lot of his value with a senior season that included over 1,600 yards from scrimmage, and then he impressed at the combine.
Player WT FORTY CONE ATTS YPG TDS RECS
Royce Freeman 229 4.54 6.9 20.3 122.9 1.3 1.2
Player WT FORTY CONE ATTS YPG TDS RECS
David Johnson 224 4.5 6.82 20 111 1.4 2.7
Le’Veon Bell 230 4.56 6.75 29.4 137.92 0.92 2.5
I had high hopes for Freeman last season. He was a dead ringer for David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, two of the best rookie recommendations in RotoViz history. Unfortunately, this is where his path again diverged from the dream scenario. A high-ankle sprain derailed a promising start and opened the door for Phillip Lindsay.
Lindsay’s performance wasn’t a fluke, and it’s difficult to see a scenario where Freeman wrests full control of the starting job. At the same time, if Freeman is even a poor man’s Johnson or Bell, his talent will carve out a significant role. The Broncos have advertised this as a pure committee, and the cheaper back in a committee has historically returned win rates at the same level as RB bell cows.
How to Play It: I selected Freeman in the ninth round of the MFL10 of Death, and he’s worth attacking earlier in RB-heavy formats like the FFPC.
No. 4 Rashaad Penny
Penny is plummeting after gaining only 13 yards on 12 carries through two preseason games. This creates an opening for drafters. Prior to those games, we were mostly getting narratives about Penny being in much better shape after showing up heavy to training camp a year ago. Oh, and the Seahawks were going to throw more to Penny and Chris Carson.
The former Aztec star is another in a long line of early-round draft picks we’re loading up on before the breakout. Any elite prospect entering his second season is a must-draft for Zero RB enthusiasts, and Penny was an elite prospect:
Okay, but what about that down rookie season? Doesn’t that color his future? It does, but we’re not having to pay Nick Chubb prices either. Penny easily cleared the hurdle we mentioned in One Surprisingly Easy Way to Pick Out Second-Year Breakout RBs, and Jeff Matson’s look at his rookie comps included some intriguing names.
I mentioned this yesterday in relationship to Ronald Jones, but there’s a straightforward reason why loading up on formerly elite prospects pays such big dividends. Early-round busts receive multiple opportunities to prove themselves:
In a recent stroll through memory lane, I stumbled across a couple of relevant articles by the Fantasy Douche. Opportunity Knocks Twice for NFL RBs discusses the necessity GM’s feel to make their picks look good. “Draft position was actually more explanatory for an RB’s second year carries than it was for his first year carries. There might be both buy low and sell high opportunities that come from this information.”
This is the one season where it makes sense to take a gamble on unproven players. The Wrong Read reminds us that second-year RBs are the only cohort to see their scores improve.
How to Play It: I’ve presented more evidence for Penny than for any other player because I think that’s necessary to overcome the important objection about his likely usage in the passing game. I recently selected him at 8.04 in the Apex Experts League.
No. 3 Darrell Henderson
Henderson was part of the Zero RB foundation for my recent Draft Dashboard experiment in selecting players exclusively from explosive teams. The Rams new space back offers a 2-for-1 in that category as one of the most explosive runners in college football history. Developmental dynasty guru Jordan Hoover points out that he’s “one of just 10 players this century to average at least 8.5 YPC on 130 or more carries in a season and the only one to do it twice.”
It’s been suggested by the Rams themselves that Henderson could do for them what Alvin Kamara did for New Orleans. The more realistic comp is the other name they’ve thrown around – Chris Thompson. Even though the market share for the rookie could be limited, the Rams are one of the few teams that has plenty to go around.
They finished top-five at the position in rush volume (ruEP), rush efficiency (ruFPOE), and PPR scoring, and their receiving metrics didn’t lag either.
How to Play It: Henderson is more palatable around RB40 than RB35. He’s a value at his ADP, but he’s not as big a value as the other members of this list. When he falls – like he did in the Dashboard mock – you want to make sure to grab him.
No. 2 Austin Ekeler
On the one hand, I’m conflicted about this. Ekeler is squeezed by two very talented RBs and is now frequently going in the sixth round. That’s not exactly what we’re looking for in a Zero RB candidate.
On the other hand, you’re going to need more hands. Or at least more fingers to tick off all of the reasons to still select one of the NFL’s most talented backs.3
Ekeler is on the smaller side at 195 pounds, but his athleticism compares favorably to many of the smaller backs of legend. At Colorado’s 2017 pro day, he turned in a 4.43 forty, 40-inch vertical, and 6.85 three-cone.
That explosion translates directly to the field. During his rookie season of 2017, he was one of only eight backs to finish with more than 30 fantasy points over expectation. He was even more explosive last year, adding 38 FPOE to his career total and again averaging more than 5.0 yards per carry. Ekeler was one of only nine backs with double-digit FPOE as both a runner and receiver.
If you think that reminds you of anyone, it should. In his must-read series on RB game script and its impact on fantasy performances, Ryan Collinsworth compares him to a top-five RB.
Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara are literally the same player, but in different backfield situations. Just look at each player’s career Opps% splits, heat-mapped based on our entire running back sample:
In fact, Ekeler might be going even quite a bit earlier in drafts if not for his efficiency slip during one high-profile stretch. In his excellent breakdown of the Chargers backfield without Melvin Gordon last year, Curtis Patrick demonstrates that Ekeler will be the beneficiary of that volume.
Ekeler’s role increased more than Jackson’s did with Gordon out of the lineup, but it didn’t result in a significant increase in PPR scoring because he only scored one touchdown in the three games he played without the lead back. Note that his rushing attempts and his receiving targets each more than doubled on a per-game basis with Gordon on the bench. The eye-popping number is Ekeler’s 277-touch 16-game pace (213 carries, 64 receptions) in a Gordon-less world. Alvin Kamara only had 275 touches in 2018.
How to Play It: Consider those notes on volume and then consider that Ekeler is still going five spots lower than his 2018 finish despite Gordon’s holdout. Referencing a player’s previous finish can be misleading in a lot of ways, but it’s still eye-opening in this context. I have a hard time passing on Robby Anderson, Will Fuller, and Curtis Samuel in this range, but if you’re going RB in this spot, Ekeler is the guy.
No. 1 Miles Sanders
Here’s a fun example of why Zero RB is so successful. At one point, not that long ago, Jordan Howard jumped over Sanders for a couple of days.
Now Sanders is almost 40 slots more expensive. And that’s without a game being played. Imagine how much these values can shift with an actual substantive development.
It was exactly in that window that I wrote my Sanders article, explaining that he looked an awful lot like the 2019 Nick Chubb.4
The advanced stats raise some ugly questions about the rest of the big names in this rookie RB class, but Sanders’ resume impresses. He outscored the other trendy names in the RB Prospect Lab, and his combined production/athleticism profile gave him an intriguing top comp in the Box Score Scout.
How to Play It: Sanders is the swing-for-the-fences pick for squads that executed the Michael Thomas–JuJu Smith-Schuster–Amari Cooper–Brandin Cooks start. Rookie RBs have traditionally struggled when asked to return value on an ADP just outside the dead zone, but Brian Malone’s reminds us that they can be fantasy playoff winners. If you have that WR corps, you’re looking for a David Johnson-like playoff breakout to take your squad to the promised land.
The Big Picture
Sanders and Ekeler are moving into the range where they become tricky selections for Zero RB drafters. In next week’s Zero RB Update, we’ll look at whether that momentum carries through the weekend. Two intriguing RB options were outside-looking-in for the original list but could join the countdown soon.
Good luck drafting this weekend, everyone.
Image Credit: Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Royce Freeman.
Welcome to the 2019 Zero RB target list where we help you find inexpensive RBs to destroy your league. The list isn’t just for Zero RB owners. You can use the list to construct a Zero RB squad, to fill out your 1-Elite-RB roster, or to build Flex upside into a RB-heavy start.
With his 2018 picks hitting at a high rate, Shawn won his 11th high-stakes league at the Main Event level or higher and added to his double-digit totals in top-15 national finishes. The Zero RB selections also helped him snag his third MFL10 of Death title in four years.
In Part 1, we counted down the candidates from No. 15 to No. 11 and presented Zero RB evidence for 2019 that will pique the interest of the most hardened Robust RBers. In Part 2, we unveiled No. 10 through No. 6 and discussed the importance of selecting players in the Priority RB Window.
We also took a brief look at the Zero RB lists of yore and their breakout stars, including Devonta Freeman (2015), Melvin Gordon (2016), Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara (2017).
It would seem impossible to top those results, but the 2018 list was absolutely loaded. Jump back to Part 1 for that discussion and the full intro or zoom ahead to The List to see who shows up in Part 3.
The List
As long-time readers know, these will be arranged in order of ADP, starting with the least expensive. Between Rounds 6 and 18 in each individual draft, you’ll want to select six or seven of the 15 targets. This provides enough flexibility to let the best values fall to you.
No. 5 Royce Freeman
Freeman has his enthusiasts, but it’s easy to forget that if things had played out just slightly differently, he might be a first-round fantasy pick in 2019.
The former Duck was such a good collegiate player during his first two years at Oregon that he was selected ahead of Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey in one of my devy startups.1 He really was that good. He gained over 3,000 yards rushing during those two seasons, added another 500 yards receiving, and scored 38 touchdowns.2
Our research indicates that early production is one of the key elements for RB evaluation. Few RBs are as prolific as early as Freeman, and this is reflected in a huge First-Year Workhorse Score.
The first unfortunate fork in the path occurred during Freeman’s junior year where he played through injury to middling results and decided not to declare for the NFL draft.
He rehabbed a lot of his value with a senior season that included over 1,600 yards from scrimmage, and then he impressed at the combine.
Player WT FORTY CONE ATTS YPG TDS RECS
Royce Freeman 229 4.54 6.9 20.3 122.9 1.3 1.2
Player WT FORTY CONE ATTS YPG TDS RECS
David Johnson 224 4.5 6.82 20 111 1.4 2.7
Le’Veon Bell 230 4.56 6.75 29.4 137.92 0.92 2.5
I had high hopes for Freeman last season. He was a dead ringer for David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, two of the best rookie recommendations in RotoViz history. Unfortunately, this is where his path again diverged from the dream scenario. A high-ankle sprain derailed a promising start and opened the door for Phillip Lindsay.
Lindsay’s performance wasn’t a fluke, and it’s difficult to see a scenario where Freeman wrests full control of the starting job. At the same time, if Freeman is even a poor man’s Johnson or Bell, his talent will carve out a significant role. The Broncos have advertised this as a pure committee, and the cheaper back in a committee has historically returned win rates at the same level as RB bell cows.
How to Play It: I selected Freeman in the ninth round of the MFL10 of Death, and he’s worth attacking earlier in RB-heavy formats like the FFPC.
No. 4 Rashaad Penny
Penny is plummeting after gaining only 13 yards on 12 carries through two preseason games. This creates an opening for drafters. Prior to those games, we were mostly getting narratives about Penny being in much better shape after showing up heavy to training camp a year ago. Oh, and the Seahawks were going to throw more to Penny and Chris Carson.
The former Aztec star is another in a long line of early-round draft picks we’re loading up on before the breakout. Any elite prospect entering his second season is a must-draft for Zero RB enthusiasts, and Penny was an elite prospect:
- The second-highest score in the RB Prospect Lab behind only Barkley.
- The second best score in the Backfield Dominator Rating among elite RB prospects.
- Impressive kick return production, which is an undervalued prospect indicator.
- Led the class in runs of 40-plus yards.
Okay, but what about that down rookie season? Doesn’t that color his future? It does, but we’re not having to pay Nick Chubb prices either. Penny easily cleared the hurdle we mentioned in One Surprisingly Easy Way to Pick Out Second-Year Breakout RBs, and Jeff Matson’s look at his rookie comps included some intriguing names.
I mentioned this yesterday in relationship to Ronald Jones, but there’s a straightforward reason why loading up on formerly elite prospects pays such big dividends. Early-round busts receive multiple opportunities to prove themselves:
In a recent stroll through memory lane, I stumbled across a couple of relevant articles by the Fantasy Douche. Opportunity Knocks Twice for NFL RBs discusses the necessity GM’s feel to make their picks look good. “Draft position was actually more explanatory for an RB’s second year carries than it was for his first year carries. There might be both buy low and sell high opportunities that come from this information.”
This is the one season where it makes sense to take a gamble on unproven players. The Wrong Read reminds us that second-year RBs are the only cohort to see their scores improve.
How to Play It: I’ve presented more evidence for Penny than for any other player because I think that’s necessary to overcome the important objection about his likely usage in the passing game. I recently selected him at 8.04 in the Apex Experts League.
No. 3 Darrell Henderson
Henderson was part of the Zero RB foundation for my recent Draft Dashboard experiment in selecting players exclusively from explosive teams. The Rams new space back offers a 2-for-1 in that category as one of the most explosive runners in college football history. Developmental dynasty guru Jordan Hoover points out that he’s “one of just 10 players this century to average at least 8.5 YPC on 130 or more carries in a season and the only one to do it twice.”
It’s been suggested by the Rams themselves that Henderson could do for them what Alvin Kamara did for New Orleans. The more realistic comp is the other name they’ve thrown around – Chris Thompson. Even though the market share for the rookie could be limited, the Rams are one of the few teams that has plenty to go around.
They finished top-five at the position in rush volume (ruEP), rush efficiency (ruFPOE), and PPR scoring, and their receiving metrics didn’t lag either.
How to Play It: Henderson is more palatable around RB40 than RB35. He’s a value at his ADP, but he’s not as big a value as the other members of this list. When he falls – like he did in the Dashboard mock – you want to make sure to grab him.
No. 2 Austin Ekeler
On the one hand, I’m conflicted about this. Ekeler is squeezed by two very talented RBs and is now frequently going in the sixth round. That’s not exactly what we’re looking for in a Zero RB candidate.
On the other hand, you’re going to need more hands. Or at least more fingers to tick off all of the reasons to still select one of the NFL’s most talented backs.3
Ekeler is on the smaller side at 195 pounds, but his athleticism compares favorably to many of the smaller backs of legend. At Colorado’s 2017 pro day, he turned in a 4.43 forty, 40-inch vertical, and 6.85 three-cone.
That explosion translates directly to the field. During his rookie season of 2017, he was one of only eight backs to finish with more than 30 fantasy points over expectation. He was even more explosive last year, adding 38 FPOE to his career total and again averaging more than 5.0 yards per carry. Ekeler was one of only nine backs with double-digit FPOE as both a runner and receiver.
If you think that reminds you of anyone, it should. In his must-read series on RB game script and its impact on fantasy performances, Ryan Collinsworth compares him to a top-five RB.
Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara are literally the same player, but in different backfield situations. Just look at each player’s career Opps% splits, heat-mapped based on our entire running back sample:
In fact, Ekeler might be going even quite a bit earlier in drafts if not for his efficiency slip during one high-profile stretch. In his excellent breakdown of the Chargers backfield without Melvin Gordon last year, Curtis Patrick demonstrates that Ekeler will be the beneficiary of that volume.
Ekeler’s role increased more than Jackson’s did with Gordon out of the lineup, but it didn’t result in a significant increase in PPR scoring because he only scored one touchdown in the three games he played without the lead back. Note that his rushing attempts and his receiving targets each more than doubled on a per-game basis with Gordon on the bench. The eye-popping number is Ekeler’s 277-touch 16-game pace (213 carries, 64 receptions) in a Gordon-less world. Alvin Kamara only had 275 touches in 2018.
How to Play It: Consider those notes on volume and then consider that Ekeler is still going five spots lower than his 2018 finish despite Gordon’s holdout. Referencing a player’s previous finish can be misleading in a lot of ways, but it’s still eye-opening in this context. I have a hard time passing on Robby Anderson, Will Fuller, and Curtis Samuel in this range, but if you’re going RB in this spot, Ekeler is the guy.
No. 1 Miles Sanders
Here’s a fun example of why Zero RB is so successful. At one point, not that long ago, Jordan Howard jumped over Sanders for a couple of days.
Now Sanders is almost 40 slots more expensive. And that’s without a game being played. Imagine how much these values can shift with an actual substantive development.
It was exactly in that window that I wrote my Sanders article, explaining that he looked an awful lot like the 2019 Nick Chubb.4
The advanced stats raise some ugly questions about the rest of the big names in this rookie RB class, but Sanders’ resume impresses. He outscored the other trendy names in the RB Prospect Lab, and his combined production/athleticism profile gave him an intriguing top comp in the Box Score Scout.
How to Play It: Sanders is the swing-for-the-fences pick for squads that executed the Michael Thomas–JuJu Smith-Schuster–Amari Cooper–Brandin Cooks start. Rookie RBs have traditionally struggled when asked to return value on an ADP just outside the dead zone, but Brian Malone’s reminds us that they can be fantasy playoff winners. If you have that WR corps, you’re looking for a David Johnson-like playoff breakout to take your squad to the promised land.
The Big Picture
Sanders and Ekeler are moving into the range where they become tricky selections for Zero RB drafters. In next week’s Zero RB Update, we’ll look at whether that momentum carries through the weekend. Two intriguing RB options were outside-looking-in for the original list but could join the countdown soon.
Good luck drafting this weekend, everyone.
Image Credit: Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Royce Freeman.
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- Dec 15, 2012
Yo BA, whats the good word on Chris Herndon in camp? He is one of my late round fliers along with Mark Andrews.
I really think people are sleeping on Andrews though. Guy may have only had 500 yards receiving last year, but 400 of that came in the 7 games that Lamar jackson started. He could legitimately have like 800 yards and 5 or 6 TDs which would put him in the top 5 TE category from this last year.
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Herndon suspended I think first 4 games of the season for a DUI
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I understand that, but he isnt being drafted. I was planning on swooping in week 3 and pick him up if Mark Andrews fails me miserably.
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Yeah he's def a sleeper candidate. I have an eye on em, depending how the draft falls to me.
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- Dec 18, 2012
If you got a deep bench then maybe but I doubt any leagues draft him. He’s gonna get his esp with Richard Rodgers dealing with injuries. Eagles got a ton of passing options which is great for Wentz but makes most of the main guys value picks
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- Dec 15, 2012
The way I look at it is pretty much every great tight end in the NFL today or for the last decade or so broke out in their second year.
Ertz had 470 yards receiving his first year, nearly double that his second year
Kelce only played 1 game his rookie year then had 800 yards the next
Gronk had 500 yards his rookie season then 1300 the next year
Kittle had 500 his rookie season then 1400 the next year
Gates had 400 yards his rookie season then 900 the next year
Greg olsen had 400 then 600
Witten had 350 then 900
Vernon Davis was the only one I could find that took 4 years to break out.
Most these dudes breakout year 2 if they do at all. I could see Hunter Henry breaking out this year as well since he technically didnt play last year, but I want to draft these guys in their second year hoping they are the next breakout tight end and both Herndon and Andrews had really good rookies seasons for a tight end.
Andrews had a wildly inefficient QB his first year trying to pick up the playbook. I really think he could be a huge steal. Herndon is in the same position where his QB was bad to begin the season, but started to look better as the season progressed.
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Herndon suspended but I expect him to get looks upon his return. Sam went to him a lot last season. He'll likely go undrafted & you can scoop him up.
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- Oct 24, 2010
one more week til draftssss lets goooo
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- Jul 23, 2012
Found out I draft 5th in my 12-man, standard league.
My choices are either David Johnson (Zeke if he falls) or Nuk.
Doing mocks I feel like DJ is the better choice because Mike Evans, AB, and/or JuJu are still there at 2.20, while RB1 options are like Fournette, Gordon, Jacobs or Freeman.
Usually Aaron Jones, Kerryon, or Carson are still there at 3.29. Then for a WR2, Diggs, Woods, Godwin, and/or Kupp is there at 4.44
But it feels like everyone keeps telling me go Nuk
My choices are either David Johnson (Zeke if he falls) or Nuk.
Doing mocks I feel like DJ is the better choice because Mike Evans, AB, and/or JuJu are still there at 2.20, while RB1 options are like Fournette, Gordon, Jacobs or Freeman.
Usually Aaron Jones, Kerryon, or Carson are still there at 3.29. Then for a WR2, Diggs, Woods, Godwin, and/or Kupp is there at 4.44
But it feels like everyone keeps telling me go Nuk
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^ that’s tough but I think I’d choose Nuk just slightly over DJ. Hopkins is stellar and while DJ could return to form but who knows what the Cardinals are up to
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- Feb 12, 2005
Both my money leagues are auction...I dont think I'm gonna let myself get outbid for Chris Godwin. Might throw him up for bid early and try and get a discount.
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- Mar 22, 2003
Geronimo before he went out was a top 10 I believe
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The sleeper of all sleepers...Jake Kumerow. I wouldn't worry about his placement on draft boards though. Just keep in on the radar.
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- Apr 28, 2009
From what I’ve been reading MVS will be the other WR that’s always on the field with Adams.
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This dude was number one in draft accuracy for the last 3 years so it makes me feel a little better about taking a flier on these two dudes
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Who are you targeting with the 5th pick? I usually try and go RB RB. People in my league are smart (12 man)
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- Dec 18, 2012
Those middle picks are tough.
DJ
Chubb
Conner
In that order since you’re targeting an RB. Not sure what your selection would be for the second round
DJ
Chubb
Conner
In that order since you’re targeting an RB. Not sure what your selection would be for the second round
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- Dec 15, 2012
I’d probably try to go DJ then Gurley/Mixon if you are going RB/RB.
