Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

[meyer23]

Those are dope hats but too much for me. I have the traditional one with the white subtle WS on the side. The clothes are what's gonna kill me. I'm trying to hold
Off for most me purchase for another month to two. I mean the **** is everywhere are here. Still riding my this high, man. It's still surreal to me.

 

[CP1708]

I'm gonna cry when the Blu Ray complete 7 game series drops. Gonna be the CROWN jewel of my collection.

That blue hat with the trophy....whew.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Still riding my this high, man. It's still surreal to me.

I feel the same way!
Could care less about all my hometown teams....still riding the Cubs high! my Bears are breaking my heart though.
That Blu-Ray will ease my pain.

 

[sickickz23]

Takes one win to start a comeback. This may be the toughest game in game 5 if they win but if the cubs do then a world of pressure will be lifted and u bet they will be happy to be flying back to Cleveland along with that pressure that will shift back to the Indians. Also the return of Schwarber in the lineup u know Cleveland doesn't want to see him again. To go back to 03 i remember telling this to my friends, if u have a chance to close it out at their place, u better do so because u don't want to lose and have them fly along with u back to your place.

Throwback post...i love it lol. I still remember waking up that day with a good feeling that we wouldn't lose game 5. That we never lost 3 in a row all season. It still hasnt sunk in completely but i am forever thankful for the 2016 world champion chicago cubs

 

[meyer23]

I feel the same way!
Could care less about all my hometown teams....still riding the Cubs high! my Bears are breaking my heart though.
That Blu-Ray will ease my pain.

They best thing about the Bears is I haven't watched a "full" single game. If I'm home I got the red zone on and that's it. It's honestly refreshing to have my Sundays open to do whatever. They are long done, let's get that draft pick and move on, homie.

 

[sportsjunkie]

Every since the Cubs won WS. i have lost a lot of interest in the NFL Season so far. maybe my excitement will come back when NFL Playoff starts. Are we dreaming right now?

 

[secretzofwar]

Our only hope is that one day the McCaskey's decide to sell the team. 3/4 of the big Chicago teams (I don't consider hockey a big sport) have terrible ownership.

 

[meyer23]

Every since the Cubs won WS. i have lost a lot of interest in the NFL Season so far. maybe my excitement will come back when NFL Playoff starts. Are we dreaming right now?

Probably not, at least for me. This year is so different than anything I've experienced in my time on this planet and I'm not "old". I still watch the Hawks but it's impossible for me to me to be fully vested or interested in anything else right now fully. I mean that mid 90s bulls run I'm still high on, bruh

 

[CP1708]

… Of course there’s also the Cubs/Rays blockbluster he proposes. The proposal – just Bowden’s, not an actual trade being discussed – is that the Cubs send prospect Ian Happ, outfielders Jorge Soler and Albert Almora Jr., and reliever Carl Edwards Jr. to the Rays in exchange for starter Chris Archer, center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, and closer Alex Colome.

I think I can speak for all of us when I ask, “Where do we sign?,” because that deal feels especially light on the Cubs’ end. Don’t get me wrong: I still think Happ becomes an everyday player in the Major Leagues, I believe in Jorge Soler’s future, and I think that both Almora and Edwards are nice complementary pieces already (perhaps even an eventual starting center fielder and closer). But there is so much if on the Cubs’ side and so much certainty on the Rays’ side. Chris Archer is a 28-year-old ace under control until 2021, Kevin Kiermaier (26) has been worth an average of 4.4 WAR over the past three seasons, and Alex Colome (27) just broke out with a big 1.91 ERA, 37-save season as a reliever.

Frankly, getting a young, ace-level, cost controlled starter to replace Jason Hammel, a two-time Gold Glove winning center fielder to replace Dexter Fowler, and a young, breakout closer to replace Aroldis Chapman in one deal without giving up Kyle Schwarber, Javy Baez, or Eloy Jimenez is just too good to be true. Sorry.

ZERO chance this would happen, but I would love to see something similar come up and see how close we could get to it. Even if it was 2 of the 3 pieces coming from Tampa, that is really interesting.

Again, not happening like that, but there's been smoke between these two teams for so long, wonder when something truly starts to build....

 

[CP1708]

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS

Grade A prospects are the elite. In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.


1) Eloy Jimenez, OF, Grade A-: Age 19, breakout season in Low-A at .329/.369/.532, 40 doubles, 14 homers; can still be overly aggressive at times but he’s cleaned up his swing mechanics and put his tools (60 power, 60 arm, 55 speed) to work; signed out of Venezuela in 2013 for $2,800,000, which could end up being a bargain if he continues to progress like this; should hit for both power and average down the line. ETA: 2020.

2) Dylan Cease, RHP, Grade B+: Age 20, sixth round pick in 2014 although would have been first-rounder if not for Tommy John surgery; fully recovered now; 2.22 ERA in 45 innings in Northwest League with 66/25 K/BB and a mere 27 hits allowed; works in mid-90s and has touched 100; also has excellent curveball and workable change-up; issues now are building up innings stamina and finalizing polish on the change-up; could turn into an ace. ETA: 2020.

3) Trevor Clifton, RHP, Grade B+/B: Age 21, 12th round pick in 2013 from high school in Tennessee; 2.72 ERA in 119 innings in High-A with 129/41 K/BB, 97 hits; doesn’t throw as hard as Cease with fastball in 92-95 range but has a very good curveball/change-up to back it up and throws strikes; number three starter projection, don’t overlook him. ETA: late 2018.

4) Ian Happ, 2B, Grade B+/B: Age 22, first round pick in 2015; hit .279/.365/.445 with 15 homers, 16 steals, 68 walks, 129 strikeouts in 488 at-bats between High-A and Double-A; polished hitter with solid-average power who should provide high OBPs; performed adequately at second base after being drafted as an outfielder; could use another year to iron out the fielding. ETA: 2018.

5) Albert Almora, OF, Grade B: Age 22; hit .303/.317/.416 in 320 at-bats in Triple-A, .277/.308/.455 in 112 at-bats in the majors; there’s some question about his rookie eligibility for 2017 but he is under the limit on at-bats so I will include him; outstanding defensive outfielder and will hold a roster spot for years based on the glove alone, main question going forward is power development; impatient and OBP will be very dependent on batting average, so more power would be helpful to make him a fully productive bat; most likely a better real-life player than a fantasy one. ETA 2017.

6) Oscar De La Cruz, RHP, Grade B: Age 21, signed out of Dominican Republic in 2012; pitched 39 innings between rookie ball and Midwest League with 3.00 ERA, 51/11 K/BB; the strikeouts are not lying; fastball into mid-90s when healthy with curveball and change-up both showing above-average potential; control is good for a young power pitcher; assuming good health I expect a major breakthrough in ’17. ETA 2019.

7) Mark Zagunis, OF, Grade B-: Age 23, third round pick from Virginia Tech in 2014; hit .288/.384/.469 with 10 homers, 52 walks, 78 strikeouts in 358 at-bats between Double-A and Triple-A; excellent strike zone judgment and power improved in ’16; average defensive tools; the bat is the key attraction here; may wind up as trade bait. ETA: 2017.

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Grade B-: Age 23, hit .283/.376/.464 between Double-A and Triple-A with 13 homers, 39 doubles, 70 walks, 99 strikeouts in 474 at-bats; looks blocked in Chicago but would make great trade bait as a switch-hitter with OBP ability, power potential, and above-average defense at third base; ready for a trial now but where? ETA: 2017.

9) Duane Underwood, RHP, Grade B-/C+: Age 22, 4.32 ERA in 73 innings between Double-A and lower-level injury rehab work, 62/35 K/BB; fastball up to 96 when healthy, both curveball and change-up flash plus but feel for pitching comes and goes; strikeout rates have not matched the stuff and he’s been dogged with nagging forearm/elbow soreness the last two seasons; talk increasing that he may wind up in bullpen. ETA 2018.

10) Victor Caratini, C-1B, Grade B-/C+: Age 23, hit .291/.375/.405 with 54 walks, 80 strikeouts in 412 at-bats in Double-A; another Cubs hitter with sound strike zone judgment and OBP ability; lacks big power; threw out 27% of runners but with very low passed ball and error rates, typical for him, can also play first base well; probably a very good role player rather than a long-term regular but that has a lot of value. ETA late 2017.

11) Donnie Dewees, OF, Grade B-/C+: Age 23, second round pick in 2013 from North Florida; hit .284/.338/.416 with 25 doubles, 14 triples, five homers, 31 steals; runs very well and a very successful base stealer, also an above-average defensive outfielder despite weak throwing arm; may have more raw power than he’s shown so far. ETA: 2019.

12) Jose Albertos, RHP, Grade B-/C+: Age 18, signed out of Mexico in 2015; threw four innings in rookie ball without giving up a run while fanning seven, but was sidelined quickly with arm soreness; can hit 96-97 MPH and already has an above-average breaking ball and change-up; difficult to rank due to young age, injury concern, and lack of data but his ceiling is very high. Could move very rapidly if healthy. ETA: 2021.

13) Thomas Hatch, RHP, Grade B-/C+: Age 22, Chicago’s top pick in 2016 draft (third round) from Oklahoma State; did not pitch after signing to spare his arm, went 9-3 in 19 starts in college with 2.14 ERA and 112/33 K/BB in 130 innings, a very heavy workload after coming off elbow injury in ’15; 90-96 MPH fastball with good low-zone action, also has above-average slider and a decent change-up; potential workhorse strike-thrower: ETA 2019.

ANALYST NOTE: Spots 14-20 on this list are quite fungible so don’t worry too much about exact ordering and look at it like tiers. I focused here mostly on pitchers.

14) Wladimir Galindo, 3B, Grade C+: Age 20, signed out of Venezuela in 2013, hit .243/.337/.462 with nine homers, 33 walks, 81 strikeouts in 247 at-bats in pitching-oriented Northwest League, good production for park/league environment; above-average power and throwing arm but glove needs more work, though he did make progress cutting down on errors; high upside/high risk sleeper bat. ETA: 2021.

15) Rob Zastryzny, LHP, Grade C+: Age 24, second round pick in 2013, posted 4.31 ERA in 136 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with 119/51 K/BB; promoted to majors and was stellar in September, posting 1.13 ERA in 16 innings with 17/5 K/BB, looking dominant in bullpen; fastball up to 94 along with a curve, slider; can hit all velocity spots between 74 and 94; unsure what his role will be but he’s ready for a trial. ETA: 2017.

16) Ryan Kellogg, LHP, Grade C+: Age 22, fifth round pick in 2015 from Arizona State; posted 3.03 ERA in 131 innings in Low-A with 107/26 K/BB, 115 hits and was very sharp down the stretch; best-known for pitchability and command. I thought his velocity could increase in ’16; that did not happen but there’s still a chance it could, and even with his current skill set he could be a fine number four starter. ETA: 2019.

17) Erling Moreno, RHP, Grade C+: Age 20, signed out of Colombia for $650,000 in 2013; posted 1.88 ERA with 55/9 K/BB in 62 innings combined between rookie ball and Northwest League, 47 hits; heavy ground ball pitcher with sinker and plus curveball, throws strikes; breakout potential for 2017 which is why I am putting him here. ETA: 2020.

1 Zach Hedges, RHP, Grade C+: Age 24, 26th round pick in 2014 from Azusa Pacific, posted 2.75 ERA in 144 innings between High-A and Double-A with 95/27 K/BB, 2.07 GO/AO; heavy sinker has been clocked as high as 94, strikeout rate isn’t excellent but he throws strikes, gets grounders; could be a fourth starter or a bullpen asset. ETA: 2018.

19) Jose Paulino, LHP, Grade C+: Age 21, signed out of Dominican Republic in 2011; slow developer until 2016 when he posted a 1.92 ERA, 69/13 K/BB in 75 innings between Northwest and Midwest Leagues, 69/13 K/BB, just 55 hits; Midwest League sources liked his 90-96 MPH fastball; slider is erratic but can be excellent, dominant when his command is on. Like Moreno, he hasn’t received much notice outside of Cubs circles but that can change. ETA: 2020.

20) D.J. Wilson, OF, Grade C+: Age 20, fourth round pick in 2015 from high school in Ohio, hit .257/.320/.371 in Northwest League with 20 walks, 56 strikeouts, 21 steals in 245 at-bats; no power yet but may develop some along Adam Eaton lines despite 5-8 height; excellent running speed (65 or 70) and uses it well, already a good fielder; needs to improve OBP abilities. ETA: 2021.

OTHER GRADE C+: All of these players have a case to rank in spots 14 to 20. I don’t have space for full write-ups but will answer any questions about them in the comments thread.

Bryan Hudson, LHP; Chad Hockin, RHP; Preston Morrison, RHP; Isaac Paredes, INF; Jose Rosario, RHP; Carlos Sepulveda, 2B; Jake Stinnett, RHP; Christian Villanueva, 3B; Ryan Williams, RHP; D.J. Wilson, OF; Chesny Young, INF

GRADE C prospects: Corey Black, RHP; Charcer Burks, OF; Bailey Clark, RHP; Jacob Hannemann, OF; P.J. Higgins, C; Pierce Johnson, RHP; Eddy Martinez, OF; Ryan McNeil, RHP; Felix Pena, RHP; Chris Pieters, 1B-OF; Ian Rice, C; Michael Rucker, RHP; Carson Sands, LHP; Wyatt Short, LHP; Justin Steele, LHP; Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP; Kyle Twomey, LHP

Despite recent graduations the Cubs system remains very deep; there are others who could rate and they have a lot more C+ prospects who could blossom into more. The Cubs have put a lot of effort into digging up pitching the last couple of years and this could bear fruit soon. There’s certainly plenty of depth for them to trade with.

 

[sportsjunkie]

ZERO chance this would happen, but I would love to see something similar come up and see how close we could get to it. Even if it was 2 of the 3 pieces coming from Tampa, that is really interesting.

Again, not happening like that, but there's been smoke between these two teams for so long, wonder when something truly starts to build....

that wouldn't be a bad deal for either team though.

 

[CP1708]

View media item 2244682
When team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer took over the Cubs’ front office in October 2011, their first item of business had nothing to do with the on-field product.

Every aspect of the Cubs baseball operations department, from the executives with corner offices at Wrigley Field to the scouts traversing the globe, was short-handed. Years of penny-pinching under Tribune Co. ownership had cut down the Cubs’ number of scouts to 10 on the pro side and 47 on the amateur and international sides combined, limiting the franchises ability to discover and evaluate talent, simply because they didn’t have the manpower.

This, before anything else, was what Epstein and Hoyer, financed by new owner Tom Ricketts and family, knew they needed to address for the Cubs to ever become championship-caliber.

“It was a big priority for us,” Hoyer said in November at the General Manager Meetings. “Everything—office staff, scouts, player development staff. Under Tribune they ran so lean, it was kind of on us to push the numbers up a little bit.”

Five years later, the front office overhaul was evident, with the Cubs’ results on the field a direct result. The Cubs had 26 people in their pro scouting department in 2016, more than double the amount from when Hoyer and Epstein took over. They also had 53 scouts on the amateur and international side, a modest but still notable increase.

The year-to-year increase in extra bodies allowed the Cubs to identify under-the-radar trade targets like Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta, as well as make the accurate judgment Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell would be worth high prices in trades. It allowed them to nail Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora with the new regime’s first three first-round draft picks. It allowed them to correctly assess Jon Lester, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist would be worthwhile veteran signings, even at a steep cost.

The infrastructure Epstein, Hoyer and Co. put in place culminated in the Cubs winning 103 games this year, making their first World Series appearance since 1945 and, of course, winning their first World Series title since 1908. For that, the Cubs are the 2016 Baseball America Organization of the Year.

“It’s over-talked about, but every team has their own way of doing things, and we were trying to make the ‘Cubs way’ inclusive,” Hoyer said. “Have everybody have their opinions heard and have it be sort of an organic thing. I think that was a big part of it. We weren’t trying to dictate our own philosophy. We were trying to build a philosophy with the people here and I think that was effective.”

It was, naturally, a process. The Cubs suffered losing seasons their first three years under the Epstein-Hoyer regime, stockpiling prospects and top draft picks but little in the way of wins at the major league level.

But the final product proved worthy, winning 97 games and reaching the NLCS a year ago as many of those top prospects broke through to the majors and posting the best record in baseball this season. Even better, the franchise is positioned to sustain that success.

Fifteen of the 25 players on the Cubs World Series roster were age 28 or younger. Three of their five highest minor league affiliates made the playoffs, with multiple top prospects dotting their rosters.

What was built was something to last, something that Cubs fans could hold onto and love and devote themselves to without fear of disappointment for the long-term, and incredibly rare occurrence in the franchise’s sordid history.

“It probably is the most complete group (I’ve had), and it’s the youngest group, pretty much the youngest group,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon said before Game Three of the World Series. “That’s the part that really blows me away. If you really take a moment to look out there…there’s a lot of young, inexperienced players. Beyond today, beyond these next couple days, that makes me think just check these guys out in a couple years.”

The signature moment of the organization’s top-to-bottom success came in the crucial moments Game Seven of the World Series, when the homegrown kids properly identified by the increased number of scouts set the table for victory.

With the game tied 6-6 in the top of the 10th inning, it was Schwarber who started everything off with a leadoff single. It was Almora that pinch-ran for him and made the aggressive but crucial decision to tag up on a fly ball to center field and reach second base to get into scoring position with the winning run. The man who hit the towering fly deep to center that put Almora there was Bryant.

“All of those first-round picks contributed a lot in our postseason,” Hoyer said. “I think we were pretty fortunate that it happened. It was nice to see three of them at least contribute in that 10th inning.”

The rest, as they say, is history.

It took time, but the stocked up front office and evaluation staff led to a stocked up major league product, exactly the goal Epstein, Hoyer and Co. set out to achieve. With that, Chicago ended one of the longest championship droughts in professional sports, and brought joy back to an enormous fanbase that had not experienced it in a long time.

“It was like a heavyweight fight, man. Just blow for blow, everybody playing their heart out,” Zobrist said after Game Seven. “I can’t believe we’re finally standing, after 108 years, finally able to hoist the trophy.”

The cumulative effect of what the Cubs’ front office built went beyond just what transpired on the field.

As Frontier Airlines Flight No. 91291 touched down at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport the night before Game Three of the World Series, the first World Series game at Wrigley Field since 1945, the overwhelmingly red-and-blue clad passengers in the main cabin erupted into cheers. Before long, as the plane taxied toward its gate, the beloved anthem “Go Cubs Go” began being belted out in unison.

Many of the fans cheering and clapping and singing on the plane would not be attending any of the World Series games. They were simply flying to Chicago from all over the country to watch at the bars surrounding Wrigley Field.

More than eight hours before Game Three, at 9 a.m. on a Friday morning, beers were already being poured, the streets were swarmed and the mounted police on horses were already out.

“I guess one of the groups that makes video games could absolutely make a game out of going down Clark Street for the first game of the World Series, the potential of hitting pedestrians or not, running lights, stop signs,” Maddon chuckled before Game Three, after he was late to the stadium because the crowds of revelers had snarled traffic.

“I was even talking to the guys inside, the altruistic component of all of this. Beyond everything, the game tonight, of course Cubs, we want to win, absolutely. But how about the excitement throughout the industry, throughout the game, and throughout our city? Everybody being engaged in this moment, it’s good. It’s a good moment for everybody. So that’s not lost on me either. When you’re driving down that street today and you see the involvement, you see, I mean I was hearing about the prices just to get into these places and then what you get for it, and the fact that people are flying in just to be at a bar, not even be at the ballpark, that is pretty impressive. So the whole moment I think is spectacular is the best way I could describe it.”

The players, meanwhile, felt that energy, and embraced it.

“It’s a little magnified, I’m sure, with the history and the time has been since there’s been World Series games here,” Lackey, a veteran of 17 previous postseason series, said before Game Three. “Just driving into the ballpark, trying to get to the players’ parking lot is an experience. There’s a lot of people out there. It’s really cool.”

Of course, it ended with a reported five million celebrating the Cubs’ World Series title along the parade route through Chicago.

That was what Epstein, Hoyer, and the rest of the organization built. Not just wins and titles, but passion and joy for an entire city.

 

[CP1708]

Little different list than the one above, from the MLB site that tracks minor leaguers.

Ian Happ 2B/OF 22 2018
Eloy Jimenez OF 20 2019
Dylan Cease RHP 21 2018
Jeimer Candelario 3B 23 2017
Mark Zagunis OF 24 2017
Duane Underwood RHP 22 2018
Oscar De La Cruz RHP 22 2018
Trevor Clifton RHP 21 2018
Jose Albertos RHP 18 2019
Bryan Hudson LHP 19 2019
Donnie Dewees OF 23 2018
DJ Wilson OF 20 2019
Eddy Julio Martinez OF 22 2018
Thomas Hatch RHP 22 2019
Victor Caratini C/1B 23 2018
Jake Stinnett RHP 24 2018
Pierce Johnson RHP 25 2017
Ryan Williams RHP 25 2017
Jacob Hannemann OF 25 2017
Rob Zastryzny LHP 25 2017
Jose Rosario RHP 26 2017
PJ Higgins C 23 2019
Justin Steele LHP 21 2018
Carson Sands LHP 22 2018
Felix Pena RHP 27 2017
Jen-Ho Tseng RHP 22 2017
Corey Black RHP 25 2017
Chesny Young 2B/3B 24 2018
Jose Paulino LHP 22 2019
Bailey Clark RHP 22 2019

Not a lot of help on the way in 2017, probably 1 or 2 jump up and contribute, but 2018 looks to have a lot of help coming. Some will fall off, we all know that, some will probably get traded too, but if we get at least 2-3 of these arms ready, we should start to see results of the past 3-4 Drafts pay off with arms, not just the bats anymore.

Cease, Clifton, Sands, and Steele I like a lot, Underwood WOULD be the guy, but he's forever hurt, and Ryan Williams could be the sleeper of the group.

 

[CP1708]

Cubs sign OF John Jay to 1 year, 8 million dollar deal. Likely platoon piece/depth with Almora.

 

[CP1708]

How the Cubs Can Become a Dynasty

We don’t talk enough about how inevitable the Cubs’ World Series title felt. This Cubs season was like the movie Titanic — huge, expensive, and wildly anticipated, but in the end it actually won everything and left a song stuck in your head to boot.

A second title, whether in 2017 or in the few years to come, is far from inevitable, but since Theo Epstein hasn’t bailed on the Cubs for an even bigger challenge, one can only assume that’s what he’s after. The Cubs have several paths to a second title (if not more) in the next, say, five years, so let’s see what each one looks like.

1. Do Nothing

The Cubs had the best record in the National League last year, won the NL Central by 17.5 games, and finished with a Pythagorean record of 107–54, the best in baseball by eight games. Bovada has them at 7–2 to repeat, while no other team gets better than 10–1 odds.

This offseason, the Cubs stand to lose Dexter Fowler, Travis Wood, Jason Hammel, and Aroldis Chapman to free agency, which are not trivial losses: Chapman is at worst one of the five best relievers in the game, Fowler is an All-Star center fielder who just posted a .393 OBP, Wood is a good rubber-armed middle reliever, and Hammel threw 166.2 innings with a 105 ERA+ last year.

On the other hand, Hammel didn’t dress for a single playoff game, you can find middle relievers, and even if the Cubs don’t bring Chapman back, they could go out and sign Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon — or just roll Hector Rondon back out as the closer — and not miss a whole lot. If Fowler walks, it will be a loss, but even if all the Cubs do is start Albert Almora Jr. in center, the downgrade isn’t going to wipe out the Cubs’ enormous head start on their competition in 2017.

The Cubs’ front office brain trust could go on vacation until February, leaving only an intern to make sure arbitration paperwork gets filed on time, and the Cubs would still be overwhelming favorites to win the World Series in 2017. In fact, attrition isn’t going to kill the Cubs until 2022. Here are the key players from the 2016 title team, listed by how long the Cubs can control their rights:

Through 2016: Fowler, Wood, Hammel, Chapman

Through 2017: Jake Arrieta, John Lackey, Miguel Montero

Through 2018: Rondon

Through 2019: Ben Zobrist

Through 2020: Kyle Hendricks

Through 2021: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Javier Báez, Jon Lester, Kyle Schwarber

This leaves out some minor contributors, but if the fate of the 2020 World Series hinges on the Cubs letting Justin Grimm walk, I hope you’ll forgive me for not foreseeing it this far out. They’ll have to start turning over the rotation as soon as next year, but apart from that, the Cubs won’t lose anyone truly irreplaceable for another five years.

2. Let the Kids Take Over

The Cubs are where they are because of an incredible run of acquiring and developing young talent, but after years of having one of the best farm systems in baseball, the pipeline is starting to dry up a little. Because the Cubs’ title is viewed as a victory for a certain type of front office — the kind that builds on young players who have undermarket contracts — it’s tempting to think that the depletion of the Cubs’ farm system is a bad thing. Please let me disabuse you of that notion.

The Cubs’ minor league system is depleted for two reasons: First, most of the good prospects either got promoted and are significantly contributing to the big league club or were traded for established veterans who are contributing to the big league club. Second, the Cubs aren’t drafting in the top 10 anymore because they’re winning and signing big-name free agents. Surely Chicago would rather have Kris Bryant, at age 24, winning the MVP and the World Series than hitting like crazy in Triple-A as the no. 1 prospect in baseball.
So who’s left?

MLB Pipeline puts four Cubs in its top-100 rankings: Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, and Jeimer Candelario.

Candelario, a switch-hitting third baseman who turned 23 last week, had a cup of coffee with the Cubs in 2016 after hitting .333/.417/.542 in 309 plate appearances at Triple-A. Unfortunately for Candelario, the Cubs won’t need a third baseman until 2022 at the earliest. The 20-year-old Cease fell to the sixth round in the 2014 draft after Tommy John surgery, and while the hard-throwing righthander gets folks all googly-eyed when he’s on the mound, he ended last season in low-A and has only 68.2 career minor league innings under his belt. It’d take a minor miracle for Cease to slide into Lackey’s spot in the rotation at the start of 2018.

That leaves Jimenez and Happ. Jimenez, a big goddamn corner outfielder (listed at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds) who just turned 20, broke out at the Futures Game, where he sacrificed his sunglasses to make an acrobatic catch in the right-field corner, then took hard-throwing Rays prospect Ryne Stanek out off the third level of the Western Metal Supply Co. building in San Diego. But while prospect evaluators are singing “Hail Eloy, Full of Tools,” he probably won’t be ready for the big leagues for another two years, perhaps to replace Zobrist in left field as he ages out of the lineup.

But the more direct replacement for Zobrist, as a multipositional switch hitter, is Happ. I’ve been a huge Happ fan since his college days because he just does everything well. He’s played second base and all three outfield positions in the minors, and he’s a true switch hitter with a good feel for the zone and double-digit home run power. And for what it’s worth, Happ was the third straight polished college hitter Epstein and friends spent a top-10 pick on — the two others were Schwarber and Bryant. Happ isn’t quite that talented, but he could be up as soon as the middle of 2017, which makes him able to contribute more quickly than Cease or Jimenez, and his upside is higher than Candelario’s.

Of course, the Cubs’ record of pulling stars out of my-garbage-for-your-trash trades (Hendricks, Rizzo, Arrieta) means that there could be a sleeper in this system. Like, it wouldn’t shock me if Jake Stinnett suddenly showed up in big league camp with Brandon Webb’s forkball, because that’s just the run the Cubs are on right now. But barring a surprise like that, there isn’t another Bryant coming down the pipe in the next year or two, and the Cubs’ two biggest immediate needs — starting pitcher and center field — don’t have immediate solutions.

3. Make a Big Trade

Despite Bryant, Zobrist, Báez, and Willson Contreras being able to play multiple positions (as could Russell, but since he’s an elite defensive shortstop, why would you want him to?), the Cubs’ position-player talent is imperfectly distributed on a positional basis. For instance, because the Cubs have no DH, a lineup full of sluggers, and a superstar first baseman, there might not be a team in baseball that needs Schwarber less than Chicago.

What this extremely nitpicky criticism of the Cubs’ player development system means is that while the team should by no means be desperate to trade Schwarber or Candelario or Jorge Soler for whatever they can get, they should absolutely be open to using their surfeit of corner guys to land a pitcher or center fielder of equal talent.

But of course they’ll deal from some of this surplus to replace Fowler this year or Arrieta next year — that’s almost a given. Whether they dump out the farm system for Chris Sale or go for a mid-rotation guy, and which prospects go the other way, remains to be seen, but let’s be honest, that’s not the fun question. The fun question is the one you’re all thinking anyway: What would it take for the Cubs to trade for Mike Trout?

Trout has been the best position player in baseball for five years. In any individual season, you can cherry-pick stats and narratives to pull Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper, or Mookie Betts up into arguing distance, but any AL MVP case since 2012 has either been made for Trout or in direct opposition to Trout. He’s the gold standard, and at 25, he will be for a while. Even at upward of $34 million per year from 2018 to 2020, he’ll be a bargain.

To convince the Angels to part with him, you’ve got to give GM Billy Eppler a package of players that will make up for Trout’s absence (which in the real world, unlike Out of the Park Baseball, is more complicated than putting together an offer of four quarters for a dollar bill). You’ve got to sell it as being on Eppler’s timeline for contention (which, given the Angels’ organizational paucity of non-Trout talent at any level, is flexible), and better from a cost perspective.

And you’ve got to do it convincingly enough that Eppler is comfortable having “Billy Eppler, Who Traded Mike Trout” go on his tombstone, because that’s going to be his professional legacy. It’d be the most discussed baseball transaction since … I don’t even know … Alex Rodriguez signing with the Rangers? Barry Bonds signing with the Giants? The sale of Babe Ruth? Eppler wouldn’t make this deal unless he was certain it would be a win.

He’d also have to be certain enough to sell Angels owner Arte Moreno on it. There are two kinds of deep-pocketed sports owners: hands-off types who hire smart people and disappear except to sign checks and collect trophies, and self-sabotaging egomaniac loudmouths like Mark Cuban and Jerry Jones. Moreno falls in the latter camp, and would probably require even more convincing than Eppler.

So take whatever mélange of bench bats you wanted to offer and chuck it out the window. If you think this is the deal where you can bury Jason Heyward’s contract or cling to Báez because you like watching him catch throws to second base, you’ve got Trout confused with Yasiel Puig and Eppler confused with the guy you kicked out of your fantasy league after he didn’t look at his roster once all year.

Chicago, this one’s going to hurt.

How about Schwarber, Happ, Jimenez, Cease, and Candelario and add in Báez? The Cubs can move Zobrist to second base and play Trout in center and find a left fielder in the couch cushions. But why would the Angels do that? Schwarber, for all the hype about his World Series return, is essentially a DH, and the Angels still have five more years of Albert Pujols, who’s even slower than Schwarber. And if Trout’s a 10-win player right now, nobody going the other way has anything more than a trivial chance of being more than a five-win player year-on-year. The Angels’ farm system is in such dire need of depth that it could actually use some filler, but you don’t trade the best player of the past 10 years to get filler.

No, if the Angels were going to trade Trout, they’d want at least one crack at developing an MVP-caliber player out of the trade return, and the Cubs don’t have one to offer among their prospects.
They do, however, have one in their lineup: What if the Cubs were willing to part with Bryant?

Comparing the two directly, Bryant — who again just won and deserved the NL MVP award — is still a big downgrade from Trout. Bryant’s MVP 2016 was a 7.7-bWAR season, which would’ve been (by a fraction of a win) Trout’s worst full season in the big leagues. Trout’s career OPS+ is 170, Bryant’s 142, and while Bryant can play third base and both outfield corners, Trout can play center. And while Trout has three years of service time on Bryant, he’s only six months older, and thanks to his extension, he’ll reach free agency only a year earlier.

If Bryant doesn’t sign an extension — and as a Scott Boras client with an active grievance for service time manipulation, I wouldn’t bet on it — he’ll probably be cheaper than Trout. He also looks better on a billboard, but other than that, there’s still a gap to be made up.

Would Schwarber and Jimenez fill that gap? I’d certainly think about it if I were Eppler. The Cubs could either move Zobrist to second and Báez to third or just plug Candelario in, while Trout plays center. But that’s the kind of deal it’d take. If you’re trying to trade for the best player in baseball, everything is on the table.

4. Sign More Big Free Agents

If I ran the Cubs, I’d try to trade my way to Pareto efficiency, but unless a bargain presented itself on the trade market, I’d look to free agency for my next star. Chicago’s catcher-infield combination of Contreras, Rizzo, Báez, Russell, and Bryant includes two MVP-caliber players and three others who are at least average-to-above-average, and the 27-year-old Rizzo is by far the oldest among them. More than that, not a single one of those five players is going to make within $15 million of what he’s worth next year. Bryant and Russell don’t even hit arbitration until after next season, Schwarber and Contreras the year after. Rizzo, meanwhile, is on Year 5 of a seven-year contract worth $41 million guaranteed total, with two team options after that.

Now let’s consider the Cubs’ financial situation: Their payroll was about $171.6 million, which means they could’ve almost fit another Heyward under the $189 million MLB luxury tax threshold. They’re the most popular team in the third-biggest city in the United States, with some of the highest ticket prices in the game, and after sending Chicago (and the Western world at large) into a rapturous frenzy, they’re going make enough selling jerseys and hats and commemorative DVDs to be able to buy New Mexico and turn it into a winter training facility. Even as the infield and Hendricks are due for incremental raises from 2018 to 2020, Heyward’s and Zobrist’s contracts are contoured so that they get big raises this year. Their salaries drop by a combined $12 million from 2018 to 2019, which will offset Rizzo’s raise and some of the arbitration awards to the other players. Plus, Heyward could opt out after 2018 or 2019, which is still possible even if it looks unlikely at the moment.

In other words, given how little the backbone of the team is being paid, if the Cubs don’t spend to the tax in each of the next five years, fans should picket Wrigley Field.
For that reason, unless the Cubs could get Sale at a bargain rate, they might be better served replacing Lackey and Arrieta after next year in free agency. Though this year’s free-agent pitching class is barren, Yu Darvish and Alex Cobb will be free agents after 2017, and so will Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto if they opt out of their contracts.

Or you can look at it this way: Depending on what Arrieta makes in arbitration this year, the Cubs will probably take about $45 million off their books when he, Lackey, and Montero hit free agency after this season. You know what you could do for $45 million a year? Re-sign Lackey and Arrieta.

Then there’s the monster 2018–19 free-agent class. Some of these players will likely sign extensions or decline to exercise their opt-outs, but right now it looks like Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Michael Brantley, Josh Donaldson, Matt Harvey, Dallas Keuchel, A.J. Pollock, and David Price, among countless others, could all hit the market at the same time. Certainly the Cubs could scare up some money to add the likes of Harper or Donaldson to a team that’s already poised to make a run at dynastic status.

Because, remember, the Cubs are going to be World Series favorites again next year even if they do nothing.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

^
Good work fam!
Hoping Jed and Theo find a way to acquire Archer or Gray.
Good signing on Jay as well, gotta start prepping for Fowler's departure.

 

[CP1708]

Just speculation, but Jerry Crasnick predicts Chris Archer will be dealt to the Cubs.

He mentions Soler, Eloy, Cease and maybe Happ as the key pieces to Tampa.



That's very expensive, but....

Lester
Arrieta
Hendricks
Archer
Lackey

And Montgomery goes back to the pen.

And we don't lose anyone from our everyday lineup. With Schwarber coming back full time which should automatically upgrade the O.

(Minus Fowler, barring miracle)

 

[sportsjunkie]

Just speculation, but Jerry Crasnick predicts Chris Archer will be dealt to the Cubs.

He mentions Soler, Eloy, Cease and maybe Happ as the key pieces to Tampa.



That's very expensive, but....

Lester
Arrieta
Hendricks
Archer
Lackey

And Montgomery goes back to the pen.

And we don't lose anyone from our everyday lineup. With Schwarber coming back full time which should automatically upgrade the O.

(Minus Fowler, barring miracle)

when is winter meetings? isn't it this week?

 

[CP1708]

Yes, starting tomorrow. Activity will increase.

 

[CP1708]

Interesting note I caught the other day. Theo told Lester if he signed, they would go for the World Series ASAP.

Had Lester not signed, Theo would have "tanked" one more year. (Likely keep the young guys in the minors another year, get another decent pick, sell at the trade deadline, etc)

Wow. Imagine Schwarber, Russell, Soler, Baez, Bryant all with less time in 2015 and more sales at deadline resulting in adding even more young talent. Instead they did get Jon, won 97 and set themselves up for an incredible 2016.

 

[CP1708]

Ken Rosenthal [emoji]10004[/emoji] @Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Cubs among most serious of early suitors on #Royals' Wade Davis. Interest mentioned earlier by @jonmorosi.

TR Sullivan [emoji]10004[/emoji] @Sullivan_Ranger
Rangers interested in Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler, the right-handed bat people say will come in the form of Encarnacion, Trumbo or Napoli

Soler linked in both. Not to mention Tampa, so all in all, it looks like Soler could be dealt for pitching real soon. (as we all predicted)

 

[CP1708]

Mark Gonzales ‏@MDGonzales 57m57 minutes ago
Schwarber will not play winter ball. Hoyer said Heyward bought house in AZ, will work on swing with Hinske

Heyward.

 

[deionrizon]

Heyward is definitely going back to the player he was with Atl, and the Cards

 

[CP1708]

Potential Soler for Wade Davis deal in deep discussion. Nats/Dodgers tryin to get in and steal Davis. We'll see in the AM. (Or late late tonight)

 

[CP1708]

Wade Davis for Jorge Soler, done deal. Cubs get new closer for backup OF.

Best of luck in KC #SolerPower