Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

[CP1708]

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 3m3 minutes ago
Hoyer said #Cubs are "not done adding pieces to the bullpen."

Jesse Rogers
‏@ESPNChiCubs
Cubs had their training staff check out Davis personally today. Then signed off on the deal.

Buster OlneyVerified account
‏@Buster_ESPN
Cubs' free agent class after the 2017 season: Wade Davis; Jake Arrieta; John Lackey; Pedro Strop; Brian Duensing; Miguel Montero; Jon Jay.

 

[CP1708]

Might sound strange, but it is an important detail........with the Rockies giving out huge contracts for no reason, they have voided their 11th pick in the draft. Meaning, we move up from 30, to 29.

If the Marlins sign Jansen, they void their pick, and we move up from 29, to 28.....

And lastly, if Fowler signs with any team other than us, we get a draft pick for him, around 31-32 range. So, we could presumably have 28-32 in the draft.

Certainly not Top 5 range, but still 2 pieces that Theo can throw in the system and get them on the path to Wrigley by 2019-2020. (when our core will be mid to late 20's and ready for some youth/depth)

 

[arstyle27]

View media item 2254060
Bought the Blu-ray today...and I'm done now lol

 

[CP1708]

Patrick Mooney ‏@CSNMooney 59m59 minutes ago
Before acquiring Aroldis Chapman, #Cubs checked in with #Royals and the trade-deadline asking price for Wade Davis was Kyle Schwarber.

 

[CP1708]

The Cubs just replaced Aroldis Chapman, acquiring Royals closer Wade Davis for outfielder Jorge Soler.

Wait, that’s it? Seriously? In July, the Cubs sent four players — including their top prospect, Gleyber Torres — to the Yankees for two months and a playoff run of Chapman, and now they’re getting Davis for Soler alone? Royals GM Dayton Moore is going to reach into his pantry tomorrow morning, shake the coffee can labeled “promising former Cubs” and discover, to his utter shock, that Soler’s the only thing that falls out.

In this day and age of Billy Beane and Theo Epstein clones running teams, there are risky deals, or trades where one side wins but the other side wins more. But it’s not often that you can’t at least make an argument for both sides of a transaction.

This is one of those rare cases. This is a steal for the Cubs.

But in the interest of understanding different viewpoints, and not just saying, “Wade Davis is good and Jorge Soler isn’t, really,” let’s build a case for Soler being equal value for Davis.

The Royals are in a transitional phase; after following up back-to-back pennants with an 81-win season, they head into 2017 with Davis, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Danny Duffy, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, and Jarrod Dyson ticketed for free agency after the season. That’s a lot to replace for anyone, much less a small-market team like Kansas City. So this is a ****-or-get-off-the-pot moment for Moore, in which he can cash in on the roster that won the World Series in 2015 and try to build the next good Royals team, or he can roll it all back out there and give it one more shot.

Whatever happens to the rest of that group, Davis was a prime candidate to be traded. “Relief pitcher performance is volatile” has taken on catechetical importance as an axiom for baseball folks, and it applies here: Davis is 31, set to make $10 million in 2017, and he went on the DL twice last year with a forearm strain, which is one of those scary phrases that often presages Tommy John surgery.
Since he moved to the bullpen full time in 2014, Davis has mostly run out a three-pitch mix: fastball, cutter, curveball. In 2014 and 2015, when he was his most dominant (420 ERA+ over those two years), his velocity would be down early in the year, but once he got going he’d average between 96 and 97 mph on his four-seamer and about 93 on his cutter, using Brooks Baseball’s month-by-month data.

In 2016, Davis’s hard stuff was down about a mile per hour across the board. That doesn’t mean he’s about to blow out, but it’s a data point.

Soler, meanwhile, is a mountainous 24-year-old slugger who’s under team control through 2020. He was part of the Yoenis Céspedes–Yasiel Puig wave of Cuban sluggers, and the Cubs inked him to a $30 million contract in mid-2012, when he was only 20 years old. Soler, listed at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, has the kind of muscles you get from eating five dozen eggs every morning, which means he can do this:

Perhaps as a tribute to Kansas City’s Power & Light District, the Royals have traditionally been light on power. Kendrys Morales just posted the Royals’ first 30-homer season since 2000, and only the 11th in the team’s 48-year history. No Royal has ever hit more than 36 home runs in a season. Soler has the swing and the pedigree to anchor a lineup, for potentially as little as $17.7 million over the next four seasons. For a free-agent-closer-to-be who’s at risk of blowing out, that looks like quite a haul.

Unfortunately, that reading of the situation leaves out a few key details.

First, while Davis is at risk of his arm coming off just like any other pitcher, he hasn’t had Tommy John yet, nor is it certain that he’ll need to. The reason “forearm strain” is so scary is that what feels like a strain to the flexor-pronator mass, the group of muscles and tendons that allow a pitcher to grip and throw a baseball, is actually damage to the ulnar collateral ligament — the ligament that gets replaced in Tommy John surgery — which sits behind the flexor-pronator mass.

The injury Davis suffered wasn’t a flexor-pronator strain — he pulled a muscle in a different part of his forearm, the Royals said at the time. He might still be at increased risk of tearing his UCL, but he doesn’t have one foot in the operating room.

Moreover, Davis came back after he got hurt — he took a 15-day DL stint in early July, came back too soon, and went back on the shelf for all of August. His first game back, on September 2, he allowed the first three batters he faced to reach and two of them to score, blowing a one-run lead. After that outing, he made nine more appearances, spanning 8.2 innings, in which he allowed one run, struck out 14 batters, and picked up a win and six saves.

As for the drop in velocity, he was pitching through a sore pitching elbow. Or maybe he’s just starting to get old, and he’ll have to live with pitching at 95 mph instead of 96 now. He’s got some room to play with, because — and this must’ve gotten lost along the way somehow — he’s been every bit as good as Chapman over the past three years, even with the bumpy road in 2016.

Since 2014, when Davis became a reliever full time, 92 pitchers have thrown 150 innings, with at least 80 percent of their appearances coming in relief. As relievers go, these guys are pretty good, because if you’re bad, you stop being a 50-inning-a-year reliever and become a high school gym teacher. Among these pitchers, Davis is eighth in K%, fourth in WPA (despite not becoming the Royals’ closer until late 2015), and first, by far, in ERA+ at 351. Zach Britton is the only other pitcher over 300, and Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Darren O’Day, and Mark Melancon are the only other pitchers with an ERA+ over 200 in that span. Meanwhile, Davis has appeared in 20 postseason games since 2014, striking out 38 against five walks, 14 hits, and a single earned run in 25 innings.

Melancon just signed a four-year, $62 million contract with the Giants, and Chapman and Miller commanded outrageous prospect packages at the deadline. Closers of this tier are simply not fungible like normal relievers, even good relievers. Worry about Davis’s forearm strain if you like, or the ongoing march of time, or his salary, but there is no empirical argument that he’s not a Chapman- or Miller-level pitcher.

Soler, meanwhile, has hit .258/.328/.434 over 765 career plate appearances, which doesn’t look that bad — it’s a 107 OPS+, after all — but the deeper you dig into Soler’s stats, the worse he looks. Since 2014, 374 players have registered 500 or more plate appearances. Among those, Soler has the 38th-highest strikeout rate and the 31st-highest swing-and-miss rate. That’s not awful on its own — Javier Báez and Kris Bryant both swing and miss more — but Bryant, in addition to being a third baseman, has the 14th-best wRC+ in baseball in that span, while Soler’s wRC+ ranks 135th. And while Báez is an elite defensive infielder, Soler, meanwhile, is a pretty bad defensive corner outfielder. You can’t find very many league-average hitters who can play defense like Báez, but league-average hitters who can defend like Soler are all over the place. And big 24-year-olds who can’t hold down a corner outfield spot tend to turn into first basemen and designated hitters pretty quickly.

Since 2000, 80 corner outfielders aged 25 or younger have amassed 500 plate appearances through their first three seasons. Soler is tied for 37th in OPS+, with Wil Myers and Travis Buck, if you needed a clear indicator of the two paths his career could take. And that’s just factoring in Soler’s bat, which is his primary asset as a player. If you sort by WAR, he’s tied for 59th with Dayan Viciedo. Take out a 97-plate-appearance cameo in 2014, in which Soler slugged .573 while not playing enough defense to do any damage, and he’s been about replacement-level over the past two seasons. As a fourth outfielder and a scary guy to bring off the bench with men on, Soler’s just fine, but he’s had two and a half years to prove he’s the impact hitter the Cubs paid for, and he’s been outhit by Yangervis Solarte.

And if we’re buying canned goods because Davis went on the DL last summer, Soler has missed time for hamstring and ankle injuries in each of the past three seasons.

It’s tough to even make a case for this as a straight salary dump, because while Davis is due $10 million this year, that’s not a ton of money to a team like Chicago. Soler makes less per year, but he has about $17.7 million left on his deal over the next four years. Let’s say Davis blows out in spring training and misses the whole year, while Soler either gets hurt again or continues to be a below-average player; the Royals are now on the hook for 77 percent more money than they were before.

But what if Soler gets healthy and figures it all out? At age 25, and in his third full big league season, I wouldn’t put money on it, but it’s certainly possible. After this season, Soler can opt out of his annual salary of $4.67 million and enter arbitration with three-plus years of service time, which he’ll do only if he becomes that 30-home-run bat the Royals clearly think he can be.

In that case, we might look to Oakland’s Khris Davis, who hit 42 home runs for the A’s this past season and whom MLB Trade Rumors projects to make $5 million in arbitration on three-plus years of service time. After that, Soler’s only going to get more expensive if he’s good — still not market value, because arbitration is a scam run on young big leaguers — although not the bargain-basement deal his lower salary suggests right now. But if Soler continues to be the player he has been, he’s going to eat up $4.67 million a year no matter what.

For this to look even remotely good for Kansas City, one of two things needs to happen: Davis needs to get hurt and/or catastrophically old this season, or Soler needs to flip a switch and discover something in his game that hasn’t been in evidence for two years. I don’t think either one’s likely enough to hit the go button on this trade. Soler is talented, and relatively young, but given what pitchers of Davis’s quality have cost recently, it’s hard to believe the Royals couldn’t have done better.

 

[CP1708]

Cubs already letting it be known, 8 man pen this year. Pitching into November wears on the starting staff.

So, that means only 4 on the bench, one of them a Catcher. (Miggy)

Contreras
Rizzo
Zobrist
Russell
Bryant
Schwarber
Almora
Heyward

Montero
Baez
Jay
Szczur (or upgrade, Fowler back?)


Lester
Arrieta
Hendricks
Lackey

Montgomery (#5 or pen if Starter brought in)

Davis
Rondon
Strop
Grimm
Edwards
Lefty new guy (gotta learn his name)


That leaves TWO spots.

Travis Wood possibly back. Or deal for a starter, move Monty back to the pen. Fowler would mean Szczur dealt, or Almora back to Triple A.

Either way, not gonna be a lot more activity barring a great trade opp presenting itself.

 

[eentegra]

I like the Wade deal...hoping his arm will be back to '14-'15 condition where he dominated.....in the post season.

and thanks to chappy for helping us get the chip this year.

 

[odp31]

Loved champan but he did he provide some nail biitting moments for time to time...still have no idea how he get hit on occasion

 

[CP1708]

Cubs sign Kuji Uhera (SP?) for another arm in the pen, no walks, tiny whip, but old as hell. Just a one year deal tho. No risk.

Fowler is in STL, likely signing tomorrow. That has good implications however. Cards would lose their pick, moving the Cubs up to 28, AND the Cubs would get another pick in the 31-33 range. Awesome.

And if Jansen signs with Miami, each pick moves up another spot. Also awesome.

 

[arstyle27]

We wouldn't have won without Dex and he'll be missed.....but he's dead to me now. *%$# the Cardinals

 

[secretzofwar]

Dex will be missed, but we've got a lot of other pieces to sign. Though, tbh, I bet we all wish we hadn't signed Heyward now.

Chapman, nice knowin ya. I'm not broken up about it at all. He's done if his velocity ever slows.

 

[CP1708]

Dex will be missed, but we've got a lot of other pieces to sign. Though, tbh, I bet we all wish we hadn't signed Heyward now.

Dex will be 31 next season.

Heyward will be 31 in 2020.

 

[secretzofwar]

^ if he hits like he did this year, I don't care about his age.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

@ Dex

We wouldn't have won without Dex and he'll be missed.....but he's dead to me now. *%$# the Cardinals

QFT!

 

[arstyle27]

@ Dex
QFT!

The homey SLP gets it. I'll miss Dex, I'll forever remember how he helped us win a ring, but......there are few things worse in life than doing what he did.

 

[CP1708]

Cubs already letting it be known, 8 man pen this year. Pitching into November wears on the starting staff.

So, that means only 4 on the bench, one of them a Catcher. (Miggy)

Contreras
Rizzo
Zobrist
Russell
Bryant
Schwarber
Almora
Heyward

Montero
Baez
Jay
Szczur (or upgrade, Fowler back? )


Lester
Arrieta
Hendricks
Lackey

Montgomery (#5 or pen if Starter brought in)

Davis
Rondon
Strop
Grimm
Edwards
Uehara
Duensing


That leaves ONE spot....

Travis Wood possibly back. Or deal for a starter, move Monty back to the pen. Fowler would mean Szczur dealt, or Almora back to Triple A.

Either way, not gonna be a lot more activity barring a great trade opp presenting itself.

Really down to one more spot now, and it will either be a pen arm, or another starter and move Monty back to the pen.

Wonder if we could work something out for Hammel for another year or two. Doesn't seem to have much of a market elsewhere, we should make the call, like Fowler last year.

 

[CP1708]

View media item 2256399
View media item 2256400

#Forever

 

[CP1708]

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka Dec 6
Wade Davis 2014-16 including postseason
1.08 ERA, 207.2 IP, 118 Hits, 272 K, 64 BB, 3 HR, 0.876 WHIP

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 22h22 hours ago
Lowest career WHIP in MLB history
(min. 400 IP)
0.864 K. Uehara
0.893 K. Jansen
0.949 C. Kimbrel
0.955 S. Romo
0.968 A. Joss
0.998 B. Wagner

 

[meyer23]

View media item 2254060
Bought the Blu-ray today...and I'm done now lol

Nice haul. The only thing I have right now is the traditional WS Cubs hat. Love it. That gear is every where around here. Actually, I lied. I got the ornament that's basically my tree topper

I keep waiting to see if this stuff starts going down a bit in price. I have about $350 worth of stuff in my cart but I keep delaying. I'm good tho, I got all kinds of time.

I'm still waiting on my new Cubs plate. Currently I have the Chicago Cubs plate that says LOL on it. I got it the day they released them. The idea was Land of Lincoln and then I put LOL in and it was available so I was like "hell, why not" so I got it.
I ordered a new plate immediately after they won. It should be here any day, says 30-45 days and right in the middle.

 

[sportsjunkie]

We wouldn't have won without Dex and he'll be missed.....but he's dead to me now. *%$# the Cardinals

geez y'all are brutal . LOL

 

[CP1708]

Per Baseball America, the Chicago Cubs have signed 27-year-old right-handed pitcher Maikel Cleto, 26-year-old right-handed pitcher Daniel Corcino, and 23-year-old right-handed pitcher Jhondaniel Medina.

Okay, so maybe three new Minor League signings of mostly unknown players isn’t the most interesting development in the Cubs’ first offseason following their World Series win, but they are each noteworthy in their own right and could plausibly eventually turn into players who, one day, have an impact on the Major League team.

Cleto was originally signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic by the New York Mets back in 2006. Then, he began his moving career. In the ten years that followed his first contract with the Mets, Cleto was traded to the Mariners and then the Cardinals, before being claimed off waivers by the Royals, and eventually by the White Sox. Last May, he signed with the Vaqueros Laguna (Mexican Baseball League) in May, before signing with the Braves in July. He entered the offseason as a free agent and the Cubs took a chance on him.

Despite the journeyman story, Cleto was (once upon a time) considered to be a pretty good prospect, ranking as high 14th on the Cardinals list in 2011, before making his debut with them later that season. However, he hasn’t pitched in the Major Leagues since his time with the Sox back in 2014. That year (29.1 IP – his highest inning total in the Majors) he finished with just a 4.60 ERA and a 16.7% walk rate (yikes), but an above average 23.2% strikeout rate. He isn’t particularly adept at inducing groundballs or weak contact, but he can throw 100 MPH and that, I suspect, is what the Cubs are hoping he can do for them after a solid minor league and Mexican League campaign in 2016.

Next up, we have Daniel Corcino.

Corcino was also signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic by the Cincinnati Reds back in 2008. He spent six seasons as a top prospect in the Reds organization (we’ll get to that in a minute) before making his debut in August, 2014 (against the Chicago Cubs!). In 2015, he was claimed off waivers by the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he entered the 2016 season as a free agent.

But before we get into more of his professional stats, let’s take a look at that prospect history with the Reds. After the 2011 season, Corcino was ranked as the 6th best prospect in the Reds organization, and had his fastball identified as the best in the system at the time (his slider was distinguished similarly the following year). Although he was brought up as a starter, the Dodgers instigated his switch the pen, which is presumably something the Cubs will look to continue. He tossed 35.2 innings in Double-A for the Dodgers in 2016, finishing with a 3.53 ERA and a 3.91 FIP. There, he wasn’t much of a strikeout artist (21.2%), but he did limit the walks with some success (6.9%).

Unlike Cleto, Corcino doesn’t have much in the velocity department, averaging out at about 89 MPH in 2014, but, with nice cutting action, it can be quite successful. Combined with his also highly ranked slider, Corcino might be able to turn into a nice two-pitch reliever for the Cubs.

And finally, we have the youngster of the trio, Jhondaniel Medina.

Medina was an IFA signing out of Venezuela for the Orioles back in 2009. He spent three years in the Orioles organization before being traded to the Pirates after the 2012 season.

Medina started a few games for the Orioles back in rookie league, but has been a reliever ever since. With the Pirates, he even ascended all the way up to Triple-A this past season, before becoming a free agent and signing with the Cubs, per BA. At Triple-A, Medina got some solid results (2.63 ERA) despite peripherals that suggested some regression was in order (4.41 FIP). He struggled to strike many batters out (16.4%) and walked a bit too many for my tastes (11.5%).

But, like the rest of these signings, the Cubs noticed that he had a couple of above average pitchers and decided to take a chance. According to Kiley McDaniel (then at FanGraphs), Medina routinely sits between 92-94 MPH with his fastball with an above average splitter and a solidly average curveball.

The Cubs are clearly targeting relievers with good stuff and hoping their organizational infrastructure can turn them into something useful at the Major League level if they break out, or if a need develops. Any of these pitchers are capable of reaching the Majors this season, and it’ll simply be up to them to perform.

If the Cubs hit on just one guy like this, it’ll be like striking gold – a rare occurrence, sure, but when it happens, it can pay off big.

 

[CP1708]

The thoracic outlet syndrome that has caused a pause in the career of free-agent right-hander Tyson Ross hasn’t curtailed interest from the Cubs.

Ross missed most of 2016 with weakness in his shoulder. His October surgery to relieve pressure from the shoulder to the upper arm was deemed successful, and his recovery time is expected to be four to six months.

The San Diego Padres non-tendered the talented Ross on Dec. 1. Although the Padres love Ross and his makeup, they felt releasing him was more prudent than paying him $10 million for 2017. That’s the salary Ross would have garnered through the arbitration system, regardless if he’s able to pitch.

Ross, who turns 30 in April, was at the top of his game in 2014 and 2015, over which he had a 3.00 ERA in 64 starts. Ross reached the 195-inning threshold each season and averaged 203 strikeouts.

“The Padres would never have non-tendered him if not for the $10 million commitment,” a top National League executive said. “The pitcher will get close to that amount with an incentive-based contract. That is my guess. You need to get a shot at two-year control if you can.”

The Cubs tried to trade for Ross in summer 2015 and again this fall before he was released, a source confirmed. Chicago was offering middle infielder Starlin Castro in late summer 2015. The Padres liked Castro but were more interested in Javier Baez, so the deal crumbled. Talks for Ross were ongoing again up until his release, the source said.

The Cubs have a full five-man rotation in house, with left-hander Mike Mongomery moving up from the bullpen to replace Jason Hammel. Still, that alone won’t give the team the type of depth it will most likely need in 2017. Pitching depth is the No. 1 priority of the Theo Epstein- and Jed Hoyer-led baseball department. With right-handers Jake Arrieta and John Lackey set to be free agents after the 2017 season, there’s an urgency to add pitching now.

The Cubs’ front office is smart enough to know they have been lucky the last two campaigns. The entire rotation missed only four starts by Lackey last season and zero to injury in 2016. A great medical and training staff have been a big part of that success.

But luck isn’t something Epstein and Hoyer want to count in for the future.

“Tyson Ross is a fine young pitcher when he is healthy,” a National League front office member said. “He is an even better person than he is a player. His makeup for me is off the chart. Great teammate, just an all-around, top-quality person.”

The Texas Rangers are also trying to make a deal with Ross’ agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman Group. The hope is that Ross will be ready by April to join a rotation. This surgery and recovery is difficult to project, in terms of full recovery and arm strength.

Some have come back fine after such rehab. Others — like Josh Beckett and Chris Carpenter — didn’t. Being younger than those two aforementioned pitchers gives Ross more hope for a complete recovery. Some teams feel he will have a better than even chance of making a full and successful recovery.

Would love to land Ross and pray for his health to return around mid-season.

 

[CP1708]

Cubs had Tyson Ross in to Wrigley for a tour last week.

Rumors of a deal anywhere from 1-2-3 years depending on options and upfront money, etc. Basically if he gets a 3rd year team option, he would get more money up front, if no option, he might get less overall money, etc etc.

Either way, I would love for Theo to land him and let Bosio work with him as he gets his arm right. *fingers crossed*

 

[CP1708]

Apr. 2: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (Opening Night Game)
Apr. 9: Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Apr. 16: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees
Apr. 23: Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Apr. 30: Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox
May 7: New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs
May 14: Houston Astros at New York Yankees (6:30pm CT)
May 21: TBD
May 28: New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
June 4: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (6:30pm CT)
June 18: TBD
June 25: TBD
July 2: TBD
July 9: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
July 16: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
July 23: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

Sunday Night baseball on ESPN early season schedule. LOT of Cubs games already.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

^


Finally!
For years we've all been complaining about the toll that all these damn day games take on the team.
Feel just a tad bit bad for all the Wrigleyville residents who have to put up with all the rowdy drunks and rat problems with all the alleyway urinating but.....that astronomical property value will ease they're pain.