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[h1]From CNNSI.com
[/h1][h1]Burning questions in Bulls vs. Hawks[/h1]
Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls | Comments
Finding the best matchup with Derrick Rose is key to Atlanta’s survival in this series. (Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images)
With their impressive six-game win over the Magic in the first round, the Hawks now face a very different team in the top-seeded Bulls. It’s a matchup that appears much less favorable for the Hawks. Here are some quick questions to ponder ahead of Game 1:
• Who will guard Derrick Rose?
The natural answer is Kirk Hinrich, but he went down with a hamstring injury Thursday night against Orlando. Hinrich will have an MRI today, and if the results are bad enough to keep him out for much of this series — or limit his mobility — Atlanta is in serious trouble.
Here’s the difference between the Magic and Bulls: Chicago is an elite isolation team, and a huge percentage of those isolations start with Derrick Rose going outside-in. The Bulls rank second in points per possession on isolation plays, while the Magic, an inside-out isolation team, ranked just below the league average on those plays, according to the stat-tracking service Synergy Sports. In other words, the game plan the Hawks used to thwart Orlando does not apply here; Chicago’s perimeter players can break down defenses in ways Orlando’s could not. The Hawks cannot shut down Chicago’s offense by playing a defense-first behemoth on Joakim Noah, staying home on Chicago’s perimeter guys and watching the bricks fly.
Rose is the reason for that, and if Hinrich can’t guard him, the trickle-down effect could be devastating. Folks will suggest Atlanta turn to Joe Johnson, who could use his size and smarts to mirror what the bigger Paul George did to Rose in the first round. But Johnson, nearing 30, does not have George’s quickness, and chasing Rose around for 40 minutes a game is a lot to ask of your No. 1 offensive option.
That leaves Jamal Crawford (avert your eyes!) and perhaps Jeff Teague, who played just nine minutes total against Orlando. Hinrich was crucial in holding Rose to 14-of-45 shooting in the first two Atlanta-Chicago matchups this season; without him, Larry Drew may not have a workable plan on hand.
The Hawks are not a good offensive team, and they were awful against the Magic even in victory; Atlanta scored just a little more 100 points per 100 possessions in that series, a mark that trumped only those of Indiana and New York in the postseason and would have had the Hawks neck-and-neck for dead last in the regular season. Chicago’s defense is better than Orlando’s, and it will eat up the simplistic kind of isolation attack Atlanta ran against the Magic.
Atlanta can only hang in if it drags the Chicago offense — not exactly a scoring machine — down to its level. They do not appear as well-equipped to do that to the Bulls.
• Who, exactly, do the Hawks play?
The Hawks started their normal lineup, with Al Horford at center, in two of their three games against Chicago, and they went to their big lineup (with Jason Collins starting) in one game only because Josh Smith was injured. Collins and Zaza Pachulia, so crucial against Orlando, logged just 84 minutes combined in those three games, and it’s not clear how useful either will be against a mobile energizer like Noah.
The good news for Atlanta is that the Josh Smith-Horford tandem is big enough to hang with the Carlos Boozer-Noah front-line duo, so Atlanta could slot Marvin Williams back into his starting slot at small forward and not compromise itself defensively. One potential drawback: Going this route for extended minutes might give Tom Thibodeau the option of having Boozer guard Smith and thus eliminate one of Boozer’s major defensive issues — his problems with pick-and-pop threats. Horford is an elite pick-and-pop guy; Smith is a guy you want shooting jumpers. On the flip side, sticking Noah on Horford will take Noah out of the paint when Horford pops to the perimeter.
It’s an interesting trade-off, especially when you consider Williams, a forgotten man against Orlando until he knocked down a series of big jumpers in Game 6, is probably Atlanta’s best option to guard Luol Deng.
Decisions, decisions.
• Can Atlanta protect the glass?
To Drew’s credit, the Hawks transformed themselves into a much better defensive rebounding team this season, but that success did not translate against Chicago. The Bulls, one of the league’s best offensive rebounding clubs, destroyed Atlanta on the offensive glass in all three games between the teams this season, putting up an offensive rebounding rate in each one that would have led the league, according to Hoopdata.
The Hawks will have to do much better, and this issue dovetails in a way with general lineup issue outlined above.
• Does Carlos Boozer know the playoffs started?
We addressed Boozer’s dispiriting recent play here, and you can bet Atlanta’s middling offense will target Boozer to scrap together some points here and there. He should be stout enough to hold up in the post against both Smith and Horford, but the problems will surface when Atlanta gets him moving — on dribble attacks by Smith and pick-and-pops featuring Horford.
Boozer will give up some points on defense, but he’s going to have to get them back for Chicago offensively — something he failed to do in shooting below 40 percent against the Pacers. Expect him to do better, or expect more minutes for Chicago’s fantastic bench defenders, especially Taj Gibson.
•How will Atlanta handle the Bulls’ 2-guard rotation?
Keith Bogans, at 6-foot-5, isn’t tall enough to guard the 6-8 Johnson. Ronnie Brewer brings an extra couple of inches, but Johnson should be able to back him down and get those mid-range looks he loves. The Bulls want no part of Kyle Korver on Johnson.
This is another area where Atlanta’s lineup choices come into play. If Williams logs a lot of minutes, Chicago might feel comfortable hiding its shooting guards on Williams so that Deng, a perfect matchup for Johnson, can take on Iso-Joe. Things get dicier if Smith gets time at small forward or if Atlanta can give heavy minutes to the Hinrich-Crawford-Johnson combination they often use to close games.
The Bulls have been closing playoff games with Korver at shooting guard, and they’d probably have to manage with him defending Hinrich if Atlanta does feature that three-guard set. That could be a problem; Chicago’s defense allowed 13 more points per 100 possessions against Atlanta this season with Korver on the court, according to NBA.com’s StatsCube database. Still, it remained pretty stingy even with Korver on the floor (it was insanely stingy with him on the pine), and its offense lit up the Hawks with Korver out there.
• PREDICTION: This just looks like a bad matchup for Atlanta, a mediocre team that benefited from a unique matchup advantage against Orlando. The Hawks can’t pull that trick again, and they’ll struggle to score against Chicago unless they work a bit harder to generate good looks. Bulls in five.
[/h1][h1]Burning questions in Bulls vs. Hawks[/h1]
Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls | Comments
Finding the best matchup with Derrick Rose is key to Atlanta’s survival in this series. (Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images)
With their impressive six-game win over the Magic in the first round, the Hawks now face a very different team in the top-seeded Bulls. It’s a matchup that appears much less favorable for the Hawks. Here are some quick questions to ponder ahead of Game 1:
• Who will guard Derrick Rose?
The natural answer is Kirk Hinrich, but he went down with a hamstring injury Thursday night against Orlando. Hinrich will have an MRI today, and if the results are bad enough to keep him out for much of this series — or limit his mobility — Atlanta is in serious trouble.
Here’s the difference between the Magic and Bulls: Chicago is an elite isolation team, and a huge percentage of those isolations start with Derrick Rose going outside-in. The Bulls rank second in points per possession on isolation plays, while the Magic, an inside-out isolation team, ranked just below the league average on those plays, according to the stat-tracking service Synergy Sports. In other words, the game plan the Hawks used to thwart Orlando does not apply here; Chicago’s perimeter players can break down defenses in ways Orlando’s could not. The Hawks cannot shut down Chicago’s offense by playing a defense-first behemoth on Joakim Noah, staying home on Chicago’s perimeter guys and watching the bricks fly.
Rose is the reason for that, and if Hinrich can’t guard him, the trickle-down effect could be devastating. Folks will suggest Atlanta turn to Joe Johnson, who could use his size and smarts to mirror what the bigger Paul George did to Rose in the first round. But Johnson, nearing 30, does not have George’s quickness, and chasing Rose around for 40 minutes a game is a lot to ask of your No. 1 offensive option.
That leaves Jamal Crawford (avert your eyes!) and perhaps Jeff Teague, who played just nine minutes total against Orlando. Hinrich was crucial in holding Rose to 14-of-45 shooting in the first two Atlanta-Chicago matchups this season; without him, Larry Drew may not have a workable plan on hand.
The Hawks are not a good offensive team, and they were awful against the Magic even in victory; Atlanta scored just a little more 100 points per 100 possessions in that series, a mark that trumped only those of Indiana and New York in the postseason and would have had the Hawks neck-and-neck for dead last in the regular season. Chicago’s defense is better than Orlando’s, and it will eat up the simplistic kind of isolation attack Atlanta ran against the Magic.
Atlanta can only hang in if it drags the Chicago offense — not exactly a scoring machine — down to its level. They do not appear as well-equipped to do that to the Bulls.
• Who, exactly, do the Hawks play?
The Hawks started their normal lineup, with Al Horford at center, in two of their three games against Chicago, and they went to their big lineup (with Jason Collins starting) in one game only because Josh Smith was injured. Collins and Zaza Pachulia, so crucial against Orlando, logged just 84 minutes combined in those three games, and it’s not clear how useful either will be against a mobile energizer like Noah.
The good news for Atlanta is that the Josh Smith-Horford tandem is big enough to hang with the Carlos Boozer-Noah front-line duo, so Atlanta could slot Marvin Williams back into his starting slot at small forward and not compromise itself defensively. One potential drawback: Going this route for extended minutes might give Tom Thibodeau the option of having Boozer guard Smith and thus eliminate one of Boozer’s major defensive issues — his problems with pick-and-pop threats. Horford is an elite pick-and-pop guy; Smith is a guy you want shooting jumpers. On the flip side, sticking Noah on Horford will take Noah out of the paint when Horford pops to the perimeter.
It’s an interesting trade-off, especially when you consider Williams, a forgotten man against Orlando until he knocked down a series of big jumpers in Game 6, is probably Atlanta’s best option to guard Luol Deng.
Decisions, decisions.
• Can Atlanta protect the glass?
To Drew’s credit, the Hawks transformed themselves into a much better defensive rebounding team this season, but that success did not translate against Chicago. The Bulls, one of the league’s best offensive rebounding clubs, destroyed Atlanta on the offensive glass in all three games between the teams this season, putting up an offensive rebounding rate in each one that would have led the league, according to Hoopdata.
The Hawks will have to do much better, and this issue dovetails in a way with general lineup issue outlined above.
• Does Carlos Boozer know the playoffs started?
We addressed Boozer’s dispiriting recent play here, and you can bet Atlanta’s middling offense will target Boozer to scrap together some points here and there. He should be stout enough to hold up in the post against both Smith and Horford, but the problems will surface when Atlanta gets him moving — on dribble attacks by Smith and pick-and-pops featuring Horford.
Boozer will give up some points on defense, but he’s going to have to get them back for Chicago offensively — something he failed to do in shooting below 40 percent against the Pacers. Expect him to do better, or expect more minutes for Chicago’s fantastic bench defenders, especially Taj Gibson.
•How will Atlanta handle the Bulls’ 2-guard rotation?
Keith Bogans, at 6-foot-5, isn’t tall enough to guard the 6-8 Johnson. Ronnie Brewer brings an extra couple of inches, but Johnson should be able to back him down and get those mid-range looks he loves. The Bulls want no part of Kyle Korver on Johnson.
This is another area where Atlanta’s lineup choices come into play. If Williams logs a lot of minutes, Chicago might feel comfortable hiding its shooting guards on Williams so that Deng, a perfect matchup for Johnson, can take on Iso-Joe. Things get dicier if Smith gets time at small forward or if Atlanta can give heavy minutes to the Hinrich-Crawford-Johnson combination they often use to close games.
The Bulls have been closing playoff games with Korver at shooting guard, and they’d probably have to manage with him defending Hinrich if Atlanta does feature that three-guard set. That could be a problem; Chicago’s defense allowed 13 more points per 100 possessions against Atlanta this season with Korver on the court, according to NBA.com’s StatsCube database. Still, it remained pretty stingy even with Korver on the floor (it was insanely stingy with him on the pine), and its offense lit up the Hawks with Korver out there.
• PREDICTION: This just looks like a bad matchup for Atlanta, a mediocre team that benefited from a unique matchup advantage against Orlando. The Hawks can’t pull that trick again, and they’ll struggle to score against Chicago unless they work a bit harder to generate good looks. Bulls in five.
