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If anyone is looking for an additional fantasy league to play in, PM me, we got spots.
OFFICIAL HOCKEY THREAD: NHL, KHL, NCAA, IIHL
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by philballa09,
- Start date
- 1,659
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- Nov 26, 2009
So happy hockey is back. Rangers have such a promising team, it would have sucked for all of our talent to be lost for a year. So damn happy. The Nets have held me over, but I was dying to see my Rangers. LGR!
DeadsetAce
Supporter
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- May 31, 2004
bruins had a bunch of key players playing in europe so that's good...but they also had a few key players not doing jack **** 
the one good thing i suppose is that the team remains pretty much the same...so the chemistry should at least return pretty quickly
the one good thing i suppose is that the team remains pretty much the same...so the chemistry should at least return pretty quickly
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^you forgot no Tim Thomas 
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I'm down for an ESPN League 
DeadsetAce
Supporter
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I need to hit up my first NHL game 
DeadsetAce
Supporter
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i'll just leave this here...
You need my email again to renew me? [email protected]
I really think the Kings will benefit the most from this lockout. I think they have the best chance to repeat out of the last 10 or SC winners.
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oh god...that is deadset ******g legendary, man
i love it
worst part
yall hear he sat in on a NHLPA phone conference like two weeks ago? interesting. slight faltering by Tuukka and the Bruins are gonna be on the horn to Colorado..
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Yuk at that Datyuk goal.
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Id join a yahoo league. when are team schedules up?
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I need to go to more games. Boston's my only realistic option. So I'll have to look when they play NY rangers.
I've only been to 1 NHL game. Caps vs Bruins home opener 2 years ago. Dope seats though. Been to many AHL games. Not the same though.
I've only been to 1 NHL game. Caps vs Bruins home opener 2 years ago. Dope seats though. Been to many AHL games. Not the same though.
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To paraphrase what I heard on sportstalk today:
Couldnt agree more. As a casual hockey fan, I am glad it is back though.
Couldnt agree more. As a casual hockey fan, I am glad it is back though.
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DeadsetAce
Supporter
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^ couldn't agree more, man
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I always say this, the NHL has the worst marketers/PR in all of professional sports. College sports marketing beats it out.
I was looking for some news or the latest on the lockout, and instead I'm seeing Junior hockey, nothing against it, but damn!
It will be one damn great day when Bettman retires.
On another note, time to redecorate that little corner up at the rafters at Staples Center, that's dedicated to hockey
I was looking for some news or the latest on the lockout, and instead I'm seeing Junior hockey, nothing against it, but damn!
It will be one damn great day when Bettman retires.
On another note, time to redecorate that little corner up at the rafters at Staples Center, that's dedicated to hockey
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Stage now set for Luongo trade, key signings.
Top 5 breakout teams in 2013.
NHL team projections for 2013.
Last December, Roberto Luongo was 9-3-1 with a 2.04 goals-against average and .928 save percentage so when the month came and went without an NHL collective bargaining deal there was a little extra disappointment for him. At least that's what he joked with a group of reporters who went to Florida to chat with him on Monday.
"December is usually my best month, I'm a little disappointed we missed that month," Luongo said, smiling.
The joke is an example of just how well the self-deprecating Luongo has handled an impossibly tough situation. He's the goalie in Vancouver with a long-term deal, worth $5.3 million annually on the salary cap until 2021-22. But he's not the starter there, as that job now belongs to Cory Schneider.
When the lockout lifted on early Sunday morning, it wasn't with a sense of dread that Luongo faced the next step. He was excited as anyone, even if he knew the entire hockey world would turn its attention to him once this CBA was ratified.
"I could feel an extra jump in my step," he said to the Toronto-heavy media contingent.
The group of media waiting for him in Florida is just further proof of the spotlight about to shine on Luongo and the Canucks. And the reality is, especially considering the Maple Leafs are a potential destination, the attention won't go away until there's a resolution.
There are other key personnel moves ahead, as well -- we'll examine a few more of them in detail below -- but for the immediate future, all eyes are on Luongo.
Colleague Pierre LeBrun provided some clarity on Monday evening as to what the penalty will be for teams that take on the front-loaded contracts signed during the previous CBA. In explaining what he calls the Luongo Rule, Pierre details how both the Canucks and the team that trades for him could get dinged with a salary-cap penalty if Luongo retires early. It's a bit complicated but essentially the gap (or the cap savings) between the actual salary and the cap hit for deals of more than six years ends up being factored into future salary-cap totals if the player retires early.
That rule has evolved from original proposals that only penalized the team that originally signed the cap-circumventing deals. It's not great news for the Canucks, who now have to convince potential trade partners that Luongo is worth the risk when it comes to a potential penalty.
And that's the most interesting part of where things stand right now with Luongo. What's he worth?
According to an NHL source, the Canucks have no intention of giving Luongo away and will move him only for what they determine are reasonable assets in return. They're also willing to keep him this season.
While right now the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers are the clear front-runners for Luongo, the notion of hanging on to him is an interesting one. If a contending team with cap space loses a goalie to injury during the season, that could add another team into the equation.
For example, the Blackhawks aren't eager to add another long-term contract to their group since they already have guys like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa and Brent Seabrook locked up beyond the next couple of seasons.
But what if Corey Crawford struggles badly or gets hurt? Does GM Stan Bowman change his mind?
There is a benefit to waiting for the Canucks, but there's also risk. First and foremost, keeping Luongo would be a complete distraction for a team with Stanley Cup hopes. Every day he stays in Vancouver becomes another in which the team has to answer questions about its former starting goalie. And what if Jacob Markstrom is lights out for Florida and seizes that starting job? What if Toronto goes another direction?
With the salary cap diving to $64.3 million next season, the Canucks don't have the luxury of keeping both guys around next season and Luongo's trade value could take a hit if they wait too long and opposing GMs know they have to move him.
It's a balancing act, but credit Luongo for his patience and attitude. At least publicly, he's not doing anything to force the hand of GM Mike Gillis.
"It's a process," Luongo said. "I told Mike, I gave him the green light to do whatever he needs to do that's best for the team. Whatever that is, how much time that will be, I don't know. All I know is I'm going to be a good teammate whatever the circumstance is."
As we wait for ratification and schedules to emerge this week, Luongo's status isn't the only situation to keep an eye on. Here are some other hot spots:
Players staying in Europe: Red Wings forward Henrik Zetterberg raised some eyebrows in October when he said he expected some players to remain in Europe after a CBA was ratified.
"I know for a fact Russians will probably stay," Zetterberg told MLive.com. "I can't blame them either. The Russian league treats players a different way."
Islanders defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky is the first to publicly announce his decision to stay in the KHL, citing family and personal reasons. It's no surprise, since there were rumblings this summer that Visnovsky had no intention of reporting to the Islanders following the trade from Anaheim. But now, it's a bigger name in the rumor mill.
TSN's Bob McKenzie reported on Twitter on Tuesday morning that many are hearing that Devils forward Ilya Kovalchuk may opt to stay in the KHL rather than report to New Jersey. It's just rumors at this point, and the Devils told McKenzie they haven't received any indication that Kovalchuk plans on staying in Russia. I checked with one KHL source Tuesday morning who responded: "No official word at this time."
On another front, the Blues expect talented forward Vladimir Tarasenko to arrive by the end of the week. "No issues," said one Blues source.
Other trades: Luongo will dominate the trade front, but expect plenty of other trade talk as teams tweak rosters now that they know the framework of the new CBA. One agent said general managers are already reaching out to him to get a sense of whether his potential UFAs plan on sticking around beyond this season. It's a short season and there's no margin for error.
"I think chatter will pick up around league for sure," said one front-office executive.
One interesting player to watch will be Coyotes defenseman Keith Yandle. Phoenix is loaded with young defensemen, which makes Yandle a bit of a luxury for a team that could use help down the middle. As of right now, the Coyotes have no plans to trade him but would have to at least listen if a team needing defense came calling.
Free agents: According to Newport's Don Meehan whose agency represents P.K. Subban, Ryan O'Reilly and Michael Del Zotto, Newport planned on meeting Monday with all three regarding plans to get new contracts done for the restricted free agents and their teams. After those meetings concluded, the plan was to touch base with the Canadiens, Avalanche and Rangers about negotiations. The two sides can talk but until a CBA is ratified, nothing can be signed. Dallas also has to sign star forward Jamie Benn before the season starts.
Many teams will immediately touch base with agents for their summer unrestricted free agents to try and fast-track those deals, although the camp for this summer's biggest prize, Corey Perry, said any talks with the Ducks will wait until the dust settles a bit.
And then there's the current unrestricted free-agent pool that includes veterans like Mike Knuble, Brett Clark, Dominic Moore, Jason Arnott, Brendan Morrison and Mark Eaton. One agent described negotiations with some of his free-agent clients as ongoing.
"Everyone is in no-man's-land right now," he said.
"December is usually my best month, I'm a little disappointed we missed that month," Luongo said, smiling.
The joke is an example of just how well the self-deprecating Luongo has handled an impossibly tough situation. He's the goalie in Vancouver with a long-term deal, worth $5.3 million annually on the salary cap until 2021-22. But he's not the starter there, as that job now belongs to Cory Schneider.
When the lockout lifted on early Sunday morning, it wasn't with a sense of dread that Luongo faced the next step. He was excited as anyone, even if he knew the entire hockey world would turn its attention to him once this CBA was ratified.
"I could feel an extra jump in my step," he said to the Toronto-heavy media contingent.
The group of media waiting for him in Florida is just further proof of the spotlight about to shine on Luongo and the Canucks. And the reality is, especially considering the Maple Leafs are a potential destination, the attention won't go away until there's a resolution.
There are other key personnel moves ahead, as well -- we'll examine a few more of them in detail below -- but for the immediate future, all eyes are on Luongo.
Colleague Pierre LeBrun provided some clarity on Monday evening as to what the penalty will be for teams that take on the front-loaded contracts signed during the previous CBA. In explaining what he calls the Luongo Rule, Pierre details how both the Canucks and the team that trades for him could get dinged with a salary-cap penalty if Luongo retires early. It's a bit complicated but essentially the gap (or the cap savings) between the actual salary and the cap hit for deals of more than six years ends up being factored into future salary-cap totals if the player retires early.
That rule has evolved from original proposals that only penalized the team that originally signed the cap-circumventing deals. It's not great news for the Canucks, who now have to convince potential trade partners that Luongo is worth the risk when it comes to a potential penalty.
And that's the most interesting part of where things stand right now with Luongo. What's he worth?
According to an NHL source, the Canucks have no intention of giving Luongo away and will move him only for what they determine are reasonable assets in return. They're also willing to keep him this season.
While right now the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers are the clear front-runners for Luongo, the notion of hanging on to him is an interesting one. If a contending team with cap space loses a goalie to injury during the season, that could add another team into the equation.
For example, the Blackhawks aren't eager to add another long-term contract to their group since they already have guys like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa and Brent Seabrook locked up beyond the next couple of seasons.
But what if Corey Crawford struggles badly or gets hurt? Does GM Stan Bowman change his mind?
There is a benefit to waiting for the Canucks, but there's also risk. First and foremost, keeping Luongo would be a complete distraction for a team with Stanley Cup hopes. Every day he stays in Vancouver becomes another in which the team has to answer questions about its former starting goalie. And what if Jacob Markstrom is lights out for Florida and seizes that starting job? What if Toronto goes another direction?
With the salary cap diving to $64.3 million next season, the Canucks don't have the luxury of keeping both guys around next season and Luongo's trade value could take a hit if they wait too long and opposing GMs know they have to move him.
It's a balancing act, but credit Luongo for his patience and attitude. At least publicly, he's not doing anything to force the hand of GM Mike Gillis.
"It's a process," Luongo said. "I told Mike, I gave him the green light to do whatever he needs to do that's best for the team. Whatever that is, how much time that will be, I don't know. All I know is I'm going to be a good teammate whatever the circumstance is."
As we wait for ratification and schedules to emerge this week, Luongo's status isn't the only situation to keep an eye on. Here are some other hot spots:
Players staying in Europe: Red Wings forward Henrik Zetterberg raised some eyebrows in October when he said he expected some players to remain in Europe after a CBA was ratified.
"I know for a fact Russians will probably stay," Zetterberg told MLive.com. "I can't blame them either. The Russian league treats players a different way."
Islanders defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky is the first to publicly announce his decision to stay in the KHL, citing family and personal reasons. It's no surprise, since there were rumblings this summer that Visnovsky had no intention of reporting to the Islanders following the trade from Anaheim. But now, it's a bigger name in the rumor mill.
TSN's Bob McKenzie reported on Twitter on Tuesday morning that many are hearing that Devils forward Ilya Kovalchuk may opt to stay in the KHL rather than report to New Jersey. It's just rumors at this point, and the Devils told McKenzie they haven't received any indication that Kovalchuk plans on staying in Russia. I checked with one KHL source Tuesday morning who responded: "No official word at this time."
On another front, the Blues expect talented forward Vladimir Tarasenko to arrive by the end of the week. "No issues," said one Blues source.
Other trades: Luongo will dominate the trade front, but expect plenty of other trade talk as teams tweak rosters now that they know the framework of the new CBA. One agent said general managers are already reaching out to him to get a sense of whether his potential UFAs plan on sticking around beyond this season. It's a short season and there's no margin for error.
"I think chatter will pick up around league for sure," said one front-office executive.
One interesting player to watch will be Coyotes defenseman Keith Yandle. Phoenix is loaded with young defensemen, which makes Yandle a bit of a luxury for a team that could use help down the middle. As of right now, the Coyotes have no plans to trade him but would have to at least listen if a team needing defense came calling.
Free agents: According to Newport's Don Meehan whose agency represents P.K. Subban, Ryan O'Reilly and Michael Del Zotto, Newport planned on meeting Monday with all three regarding plans to get new contracts done for the restricted free agents and their teams. After those meetings concluded, the plan was to touch base with the Canadiens, Avalanche and Rangers about negotiations. The two sides can talk but until a CBA is ratified, nothing can be signed. Dallas also has to sign star forward Jamie Benn before the season starts.
Many teams will immediately touch base with agents for their summer unrestricted free agents to try and fast-track those deals, although the camp for this summer's biggest prize, Corey Perry, said any talks with the Ducks will wait until the dust settles a bit.
And then there's the current unrestricted free-agent pool that includes veterans like Mike Knuble, Brett Clark, Dominic Moore, Jason Arnott, Brendan Morrison and Mark Eaton. One agent described negotiations with some of his free-agent clients as ongoing.
"Everyone is in no-man's-land right now," he said.
Top 5 breakout teams in 2013.
With the parity that exists in the NHL, it is not unusual to see teams go from a losing record one season to the playoffs the next. Two non-playoff teams that will get quite a bit of attention are the Minnesota Wild -- who hit the free agent jackpot with Ryan Suter and Zach Parise each agreeing to $98 million, 13-year deals -- and the Edmonton Oilers -- who hit the draft jackpot with Nail Yakupov, their third consecutive first overall pick.
Both of these teams should see improvement, but it remains to be seen what Suter can do away from both Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne, while Edmonton could struggle finding chemistry within their stable of young talent. So while Minnesota and Edmonton are the safe bets for teams that could break out, here are five other teams more likely to see significant improvement in 2013.
1. Carolina Hurricanes
Why Carolina: After finishing last in the "Southleast" Division with just 82 points and a minus-30 goal differential, the Hurricanes made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Pittsburgh Penguins center Jordan Staal via trade and signing Alexander Semin, the Washington Capitals' former 40-goal winger, to a one-year, $7 million contract. Staal will give Carolina's skill players more chances in the offensive zone by taking on the tougher opponent assignments, and Semin gives them not only the dynamic scorer (in theory) they need but also a skater who drives puck possession during even-strength play. By uniting Staal with his brother Eric and adding Semin to Jeff Skinner's line, the Canes have a foundation for their top-six that can make Carolina the favorite to win the Southeast.
X-Factor: Semin. If he can shed his "coach killer" reputation and come close to his 40-goal campaign from two years ago, expect Carolina to be a force in the Eastern Conference.
Key stat: Carolina's .341 win percentage in one-goal games. This metric does not have a high year-to-year repeatability, in other words, since winning (or losing) a game by one goal has a high degree of luck involved. We can expect this luck to even out over time, putting Carolina in a great position to progress to the mean and pick up some more wins just on good fortune alone.
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
Why Tampa Bay: Injuries played a huge role in Tampa's third-place finish in the Southeast, a disappointment after a playoff run that saw them in the Eastern Conference finals the year before. Power play specialist Marc-Andre Bergeron missed 39 games, defenseman Victor Hedman missed 21 games and Mattias Ohlund, their blueliner who took the tough assignments in the defensive zone, missed all 82 games last season. Getting them healthy, plus the additions of Matt Carle and Sami Salo, gives Tampa a strong defense to help keep the pressure off new goaltender Anders Lindback, who was acquired from the Nashville Predators. And let's not forget the Lightning have the league's best scorer in Steven Stamkos, who won the Maurice Richard trophy last season after leading the league in goals scored with 60, just the second 60-goal season since the 2004-05 lockout (Alex Ovechkin, 2007-0
.
X-Factor: Lindback's performance as a starting goaltender. As the backup to Pekka Rinne in Nashville, Lindback stopped 859 of the 940 shots he faced over two seasons (.914 save percentage), which is a better rate than both Dwayne Roloson (.89 and Mathieu Garon (.900). Lindback getting his first chance as a starter will go a long way in improving Tampa's goals against, which ranked dead last in the league in 2011-12.
Key stat: Stamkos' 48 even-strength goals, the most since Alexander Mogilny had 49 in 1992-93. With teams getting fewer power play opportunities each year, Stamkos has shown he can continue to dominate the scoring leaderboard no matter what the matchup is on the ice.
3. Anaheim Ducks
Why Anaheim: Anaheim will have a full year of head coach Bruce Boudreau behind the bench, and as we have seen during his time with the Capitals he knows how to put an offense together. With Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan -- all in their prime -- still on the roster, Boudreau has plenty of firepower to work with. Getzlaf in particular should see a bounce-back season after a dismal 2011-12 campaign which saw him contribute just 11 goals and 57 points in 82 games. They may not be ready to contend for the Pacific Division crown just yet, but if Boudreau can recreate just some of the magic he had in Washington, the Ducks could be a Western Conference surprise.
X-Factor: Bobby Ryan's happiness. After the Ducks traded defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky, Ryan expressed his frustrations with his name being floated in trade rumors and hinted he would want out. With the possibility of the offensive production of ageless wonders Teemu Selanne and Saku Koivu potentially disappearing at a moment's notice, the Ducks will need their perennial 30-goal scorer in the fold.
Key stat: Getzlaf's 5.9 shooting percentage. If he can maintain an average of more than two shots per game and convert closer to his career average of 11.6 percent, pencil in the former first-round pick for an above-average goal-scoring season.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
Why Toronto: Before the wheels came off Toronto's playoff hopes, the Leafs were enjoying another all-star performance from Phil Kessel and a breakout performance from Joffrey Lupul. The season ultimately cost head coach Ron Wilson his job, but general manager Brian Burke made some offseason changes that included sending Luke Schenn to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for forward James van Riemsdyk. If he is paired with Kessel and Lupul, it could be one of the NHL's best-scoring lines.
X-Factor: Trading for Roberto Luongo. A .900 save percentage from your netminders is not enough for a playoff run, but if the Leafs manage to pry Luongo (and his career .919 save percentage) from Vancouver, look for Toronto to see playoff action for the first time in seven seasons.
Key stat: 242 times shorthanded (fifth-fewest in the NHL). The Maple Leafs were one of the most disciplined teams in the league last season, but their goaltenders stopped a below-average 84.3 percent of shots on the penalty kill. If the goaltending can get to league average (87.4 percent) in stopping pucks on the power play, the Leafs could put some pressure on Ottawa and Buffalo in the Northeast Division.
5. Columbus Blue Jackets
Why Columbus: They had the fewest points (65) and the worst goal differential (minus-60) in the league. Jeff Carter played just 39 games for the franchise before being shipped to Los Angeles -- where he won the Stanley Cup -- for Jack Johnson. They traded their captain Rick Nash to Broadway. And, if that wasn't enough, they didn't even get the top pick in the 2012 NHL draft. But there are reasons for optimism. For one, they shored up their goaltending with the addition of Sergei Bobrovsky from the Flyers. They added depth in the Nash trade by getting forwards Brandon Dubinsky and Artem Anisimov plus defenseman Tim Erixon. If nothing else, this team will be much tougher to play against. Besides, how much worse can it get?
X-Factor: Cam Atkinson. The former sixth-round pick in the 2008 draft scored 10 points (5 goals and 5 assists) in the final six games of the season. If he can continue to put up more than two shots a game and remain a staple on the power play, he has a very good chance of a 12-15 goal campaign during the 2013 shortened season.
Key stat: 29 wins. Since the lockout, just two teams have won fewer than 30 games and did not improve on that win total the following season: 2006-07 Washington Capitals and the 2010-11 Edmonton Oilers. The average win increase for the other 11 teams: 11 more wins.
Both of these teams should see improvement, but it remains to be seen what Suter can do away from both Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne, while Edmonton could struggle finding chemistry within their stable of young talent. So while Minnesota and Edmonton are the safe bets for teams that could break out, here are five other teams more likely to see significant improvement in 2013.
1. Carolina Hurricanes
Why Carolina: After finishing last in the "Southleast" Division with just 82 points and a minus-30 goal differential, the Hurricanes made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Pittsburgh Penguins center Jordan Staal via trade and signing Alexander Semin, the Washington Capitals' former 40-goal winger, to a one-year, $7 million contract. Staal will give Carolina's skill players more chances in the offensive zone by taking on the tougher opponent assignments, and Semin gives them not only the dynamic scorer (in theory) they need but also a skater who drives puck possession during even-strength play. By uniting Staal with his brother Eric and adding Semin to Jeff Skinner's line, the Canes have a foundation for their top-six that can make Carolina the favorite to win the Southeast.
X-Factor: Semin. If he can shed his "coach killer" reputation and come close to his 40-goal campaign from two years ago, expect Carolina to be a force in the Eastern Conference.
Key stat: Carolina's .341 win percentage in one-goal games. This metric does not have a high year-to-year repeatability, in other words, since winning (or losing) a game by one goal has a high degree of luck involved. We can expect this luck to even out over time, putting Carolina in a great position to progress to the mean and pick up some more wins just on good fortune alone.
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
Why Tampa Bay: Injuries played a huge role in Tampa's third-place finish in the Southeast, a disappointment after a playoff run that saw them in the Eastern Conference finals the year before. Power play specialist Marc-Andre Bergeron missed 39 games, defenseman Victor Hedman missed 21 games and Mattias Ohlund, their blueliner who took the tough assignments in the defensive zone, missed all 82 games last season. Getting them healthy, plus the additions of Matt Carle and Sami Salo, gives Tampa a strong defense to help keep the pressure off new goaltender Anders Lindback, who was acquired from the Nashville Predators. And let's not forget the Lightning have the league's best scorer in Steven Stamkos, who won the Maurice Richard trophy last season after leading the league in goals scored with 60, just the second 60-goal season since the 2004-05 lockout (Alex Ovechkin, 2007-0
.X-Factor: Lindback's performance as a starting goaltender. As the backup to Pekka Rinne in Nashville, Lindback stopped 859 of the 940 shots he faced over two seasons (.914 save percentage), which is a better rate than both Dwayne Roloson (.89
and Mathieu Garon (.900). Lindback getting his first chance as a starter will go a long way in improving Tampa's goals against, which ranked dead last in the league in 2011-12.Key stat: Stamkos' 48 even-strength goals, the most since Alexander Mogilny had 49 in 1992-93. With teams getting fewer power play opportunities each year, Stamkos has shown he can continue to dominate the scoring leaderboard no matter what the matchup is on the ice.
3. Anaheim Ducks
Why Anaheim: Anaheim will have a full year of head coach Bruce Boudreau behind the bench, and as we have seen during his time with the Capitals he knows how to put an offense together. With Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan -- all in their prime -- still on the roster, Boudreau has plenty of firepower to work with. Getzlaf in particular should see a bounce-back season after a dismal 2011-12 campaign which saw him contribute just 11 goals and 57 points in 82 games. They may not be ready to contend for the Pacific Division crown just yet, but if Boudreau can recreate just some of the magic he had in Washington, the Ducks could be a Western Conference surprise.
X-Factor: Bobby Ryan's happiness. After the Ducks traded defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky, Ryan expressed his frustrations with his name being floated in trade rumors and hinted he would want out. With the possibility of the offensive production of ageless wonders Teemu Selanne and Saku Koivu potentially disappearing at a moment's notice, the Ducks will need their perennial 30-goal scorer in the fold.
Key stat: Getzlaf's 5.9 shooting percentage. If he can maintain an average of more than two shots per game and convert closer to his career average of 11.6 percent, pencil in the former first-round pick for an above-average goal-scoring season.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
Why Toronto: Before the wheels came off Toronto's playoff hopes, the Leafs were enjoying another all-star performance from Phil Kessel and a breakout performance from Joffrey Lupul. The season ultimately cost head coach Ron Wilson his job, but general manager Brian Burke made some offseason changes that included sending Luke Schenn to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for forward James van Riemsdyk. If he is paired with Kessel and Lupul, it could be one of the NHL's best-scoring lines.
X-Factor: Trading for Roberto Luongo. A .900 save percentage from your netminders is not enough for a playoff run, but if the Leafs manage to pry Luongo (and his career .919 save percentage) from Vancouver, look for Toronto to see playoff action for the first time in seven seasons.
Key stat: 242 times shorthanded (fifth-fewest in the NHL). The Maple Leafs were one of the most disciplined teams in the league last season, but their goaltenders stopped a below-average 84.3 percent of shots on the penalty kill. If the goaltending can get to league average (87.4 percent) in stopping pucks on the power play, the Leafs could put some pressure on Ottawa and Buffalo in the Northeast Division.
5. Columbus Blue Jackets
Why Columbus: They had the fewest points (65) and the worst goal differential (minus-60) in the league. Jeff Carter played just 39 games for the franchise before being shipped to Los Angeles -- where he won the Stanley Cup -- for Jack Johnson. They traded their captain Rick Nash to Broadway. And, if that wasn't enough, they didn't even get the top pick in the 2012 NHL draft. But there are reasons for optimism. For one, they shored up their goaltending with the addition of Sergei Bobrovsky from the Flyers. They added depth in the Nash trade by getting forwards Brandon Dubinsky and Artem Anisimov plus defenseman Tim Erixon. If nothing else, this team will be much tougher to play against. Besides, how much worse can it get?
X-Factor: Cam Atkinson. The former sixth-round pick in the 2008 draft scored 10 points (5 goals and 5 assists) in the final six games of the season. If he can continue to put up more than two shots a game and remain a staple on the power play, he has a very good chance of a 12-15 goal campaign during the 2013 shortened season.
Key stat: 29 wins. Since the lockout, just two teams have won fewer than 30 games and did not improve on that win total the following season: 2006-07 Washington Capitals and the 2010-11 Edmonton Oilers. The average win increase for the other 11 teams: 11 more wins.
NHL team projections for 2013.
Who will raise the Stanley Cup in 2013? Will the 2009 champion Pittsburgh Penguins again hoist the trophy? Or will the Boston Bruins (2011 winners), Chicago Blackhawks (2010 champion) or Vancouver Canucks (2011 runner-up) take the title?
Hockey Prospectus 2012-13
Get caught up with the NHL in time for the start of the 2013 season with Hockey Prospectus.
Those teams should be considered among this season's favorites according to VUKOTA, the projection system created by Tom Awad of Hockey Prospectus back in 2009. Named after Islanders tough guy Mick Vukota, VUKOTA is fundamentally a player projection system, and thus it projects individual statistics such as goals, assists, save percentage and games played -- summarized in another stat we call goals versus threshold, or GVT. However, since team GVT is simply the sum of player GVTs, the sum of the VUKOTA GVT values for a team becomes our projection for the team's goal differential. On average, teams record one extra point in the standings for every three goals scored or prevented. Using this as a barometer, we're able to use that differential to project their finish in the standings. (Click here for a more detailed explanation of VUKOTA.)
VUKOTA gained credibility by correctly tabbing the up-and-coming Chicago Blackhawks as 2010 Western Conference champions. And as far as individual projections go, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal concluded that VUKOTA was the best for "predicting the point totals of Edmonton Oilers players" for the past two seasons.
The chart on the right outlines VUKOTA projections for the shortened 2013 NHL season, with its original 82-game projections and 48-game equivalents.
As demonstrated last season when the eighth-seeded Los Angeles Kings knocked off the sixth-seeded New Jersey Devils to capture the Stanley Cup, regular-season success, or lack thereof, doesn't necessarily predestine a team's fate in the postseason.
2013 NHL team projections
Rank Team 82 games 48 games
1 Pittsburgh 104 61
2 Boston 103 60
3 Chicago 99 58
4 Vancouver 99 58
5 Los Angeles 97 57
6 NY Rangers 97 57
7 Philadelphia 97 57
8 San Jose 97 57
9 St Louis 96 56
10 Carolina 93 54
11 Toronto 93 54
12 Detroit 92 54
13 Nashville 92 54
14 Buffalo 91 53
15 Colorado 91 53
16 Dallas 91 53
17 Winnipeg 91 53
18 Calgary 90 53
19 Ottawa 90 53
20 Tampa Bay 90 53
21 Washington 90 53
22 Montreal 89 52
23 Edmonton 88 52
24 Minnesota 88 52
25 NY Islanders 88 52
26 Anaheim 86 50
27 New Jersey 86 50
28 Phoenix 86 50
29 Florida 84 49
30 Columbus 81 47
The playoffs are a crapshoot; even dominant teams shouldn't be considered to have more than a 25 percent chance of winning it all. What we can get a better handle on is how teams will do over the long haul of the regular season -- even when that "long haul" is a shorter haul of 48 games. So consider our projections more of a forecast regarding which team is likely to be the President's Trophy winner rather than the Stanley Cup champ.
Here's a look at top contenders, bubble teams and cellar-dwellers for the 2013 NHL season.
Top contenders
Pittsburgh Penguins -- Heading into the 2012 postseason, the Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin-led Penguins were installed as Cup favorites by Vegas after averaging a torrid 4.5 goals per game over the final month of the season. It didn't work out so well; Pittsburgh suffered a first-round ouster to rival Philadelphia as Marc-Andre Fleury was outplayed by Ilya Bryzgalov in an unexpected goal-fest. But with the under-the-radar summer acquisition of unappreciated goalie Tomas Vokoun, the Penguins may have fixed their only significant weakness.
Boston Bruins -- For the first time in the past few seasons, the Bruins' biggest question mark is in net, with Conn Smythe and two-time Vezina Award winner Tim Thomas stepping away from hockey, at least for the time being. The 25-year-old Tuukka Rask put up a near-Vezina season in 45 games as a younger man in 2009-10, but no one knows if he can carry the load over a full -- albeit 48-game -- season. Plus, the Bruins don't have a veteran backup as a safety net.
Vancouver Canucks -- The Canucks had the misfortune of facing a red-hot Kings team that was much better than their No. 8 seed indicated. By the time top forward Daniel Sedin returned to the lineup and they had settled on Cory Schneider in net, it was too late to recover. It's easy to forget the Canucks were back-to-back President's Trophy winners.
Chicago Blackhawks -- The Blackhawks remain a top contender, masked by some recent playoff misfortune. Losing to a dominant Canucks squad in overtime of Game 7 in 2011 and getting stonewalled by Mike Smith despite outplaying the Coyotes in 2012 are excusable series losses. Chicago's biggest unknown is the quality of the next wave of youngsters coming up to reload the squad with more talent; depending on how they fare, the Blackhawks could remain solid or vault back up to a top contender for the next few seasons.
Los Angeles Kings -- As dominant as the Kings were in the playoffs (16-4), you might question why we don't have them installed as favorites. Aside from wondering whether they can keep up the motivation throughout another regular season (just ask the 2011-12 Bruins, who faded in the second half), the Kings' biggest question is between the pipes. As fantastic as Jonathan Quick was in 2011-12, goaltending performances are notoriously fleeting. Before last season, the soon-to-be 27-year-old hadn't proved to be anything more than a slightly above-average netminder -- and now he's coming off of back surgery. Conversely, though, one of the reasons L.A. was better than perceived going into the 2012 playoffs was its awful puck luck throughout most of the campaign, which turned around after the coaching change to Darryl Sutter, the acquisition of Jeff Carter and simply better fortune on its unsustainably poor shooting percentages.
Bubble teams
Minnesota Wild -- Even with the big free-agent additions of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, Minnesota has only risen from our 30th-ranked team from last preseason (and it played like it for the second half of 2011-12) to a fringe playoff contender this campaign. The Wild have talent coming through the pipeline, but it's likely a season or two early for Minnesota.
Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs -- Other teams that may have improved enough to plan for additional dates in May include the Hurricanes -- bolstered by "possession monster" Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin -- and the Maple Leafs. If you think back to last season, Toronto was right in the thick of the hunt at 48 games before its late-season collapse sent it to the draft lottery.
Cellar-dwellers
Columbus Blue Jackets -- At the other end of the spectrum, it's no shock that we foresee the Blue Jackets as most likely to finish last. Though they have picked up some building blocks for the future, the departure of Rick Nash won't help their short-term prospects.
Florida Panthers -- How about projecting last season's third-seeded Panthers as 29th in the league? Though Florida arguably has the league's most talented farm system, VUKOTA is bearish on the Panthers' prospects in the short term. A fortunate 18-7 record in overtime and the shootout helped them overcome a negative goal differential (minus-24). Florida's luck with "loser points" was similar to that of Anaheim in 2010-11, and we saw how that worked out for the Ducks in 2011-12.
Phoenix Coyotes and New Jersey Devils -- We also peg Western Conference finalist Phoenix and Cup finalist New Jersey as likely to fall from the postseason ranks. Expected regression by last season's top goaltender by GVT, Mike Smith, explains the Coyotes' fall, while the Devils have to deal with the departure of captain and top two-way forward Parise. That said, coaches Dave Tippett and Peter DeBoer have shown their ability to lift squads of mediocre talent, so it's possible that one or both of these teams will confound VUKOTA.
Final note
In terms of the projections, clearly some teams will do better than 61 points (prorated from 104 over 82 games) and worse than 47 points (prorated from 81). Likewise, chances are also good that the best and worst teams won't be the Penguins and Jackets. Why? Because some teams will have an unfair share of good and bad fortune in terms of both injuries and action on the ice.
What you see in our above projections are the most likely outcomes for each team, which end up more bunched up than they will be in reality. But there's no telling which teams will be the recipients of what kind of fortune. That's why they play the games.
Hockey Prospectus 2012-13
Get caught up with the NHL in time for the start of the 2013 season with Hockey Prospectus.
Those teams should be considered among this season's favorites according to VUKOTA, the projection system created by Tom Awad of Hockey Prospectus back in 2009. Named after Islanders tough guy Mick Vukota, VUKOTA is fundamentally a player projection system, and thus it projects individual statistics such as goals, assists, save percentage and games played -- summarized in another stat we call goals versus threshold, or GVT. However, since team GVT is simply the sum of player GVTs, the sum of the VUKOTA GVT values for a team becomes our projection for the team's goal differential. On average, teams record one extra point in the standings for every three goals scored or prevented. Using this as a barometer, we're able to use that differential to project their finish in the standings. (Click here for a more detailed explanation of VUKOTA.)
VUKOTA gained credibility by correctly tabbing the up-and-coming Chicago Blackhawks as 2010 Western Conference champions. And as far as individual projections go, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal concluded that VUKOTA was the best for "predicting the point totals of Edmonton Oilers players" for the past two seasons.
The chart on the right outlines VUKOTA projections for the shortened 2013 NHL season, with its original 82-game projections and 48-game equivalents.
As demonstrated last season when the eighth-seeded Los Angeles Kings knocked off the sixth-seeded New Jersey Devils to capture the Stanley Cup, regular-season success, or lack thereof, doesn't necessarily predestine a team's fate in the postseason.
2013 NHL team projections
Rank Team 82 games 48 games
1 Pittsburgh 104 61
2 Boston 103 60
3 Chicago 99 58
4 Vancouver 99 58
5 Los Angeles 97 57
6 NY Rangers 97 57
7 Philadelphia 97 57
8 San Jose 97 57
9 St Louis 96 56
10 Carolina 93 54
11 Toronto 93 54
12 Detroit 92 54
13 Nashville 92 54
14 Buffalo 91 53
15 Colorado 91 53
16 Dallas 91 53
17 Winnipeg 91 53
18 Calgary 90 53
19 Ottawa 90 53
20 Tampa Bay 90 53
21 Washington 90 53
22 Montreal 89 52
23 Edmonton 88 52
24 Minnesota 88 52
25 NY Islanders 88 52
26 Anaheim 86 50
27 New Jersey 86 50
28 Phoenix 86 50
29 Florida 84 49
30 Columbus 81 47
The playoffs are a crapshoot; even dominant teams shouldn't be considered to have more than a 25 percent chance of winning it all. What we can get a better handle on is how teams will do over the long haul of the regular season -- even when that "long haul" is a shorter haul of 48 games. So consider our projections more of a forecast regarding which team is likely to be the President's Trophy winner rather than the Stanley Cup champ.
Here's a look at top contenders, bubble teams and cellar-dwellers for the 2013 NHL season.
Top contenders
Pittsburgh Penguins -- Heading into the 2012 postseason, the Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin-led Penguins were installed as Cup favorites by Vegas after averaging a torrid 4.5 goals per game over the final month of the season. It didn't work out so well; Pittsburgh suffered a first-round ouster to rival Philadelphia as Marc-Andre Fleury was outplayed by Ilya Bryzgalov in an unexpected goal-fest. But with the under-the-radar summer acquisition of unappreciated goalie Tomas Vokoun, the Penguins may have fixed their only significant weakness.
Boston Bruins -- For the first time in the past few seasons, the Bruins' biggest question mark is in net, with Conn Smythe and two-time Vezina Award winner Tim Thomas stepping away from hockey, at least for the time being. The 25-year-old Tuukka Rask put up a near-Vezina season in 45 games as a younger man in 2009-10, but no one knows if he can carry the load over a full -- albeit 48-game -- season. Plus, the Bruins don't have a veteran backup as a safety net.
Vancouver Canucks -- The Canucks had the misfortune of facing a red-hot Kings team that was much better than their No. 8 seed indicated. By the time top forward Daniel Sedin returned to the lineup and they had settled on Cory Schneider in net, it was too late to recover. It's easy to forget the Canucks were back-to-back President's Trophy winners.
Chicago Blackhawks -- The Blackhawks remain a top contender, masked by some recent playoff misfortune. Losing to a dominant Canucks squad in overtime of Game 7 in 2011 and getting stonewalled by Mike Smith despite outplaying the Coyotes in 2012 are excusable series losses. Chicago's biggest unknown is the quality of the next wave of youngsters coming up to reload the squad with more talent; depending on how they fare, the Blackhawks could remain solid or vault back up to a top contender for the next few seasons.
Los Angeles Kings -- As dominant as the Kings were in the playoffs (16-4), you might question why we don't have them installed as favorites. Aside from wondering whether they can keep up the motivation throughout another regular season (just ask the 2011-12 Bruins, who faded in the second half), the Kings' biggest question is between the pipes. As fantastic as Jonathan Quick was in 2011-12, goaltending performances are notoriously fleeting. Before last season, the soon-to-be 27-year-old hadn't proved to be anything more than a slightly above-average netminder -- and now he's coming off of back surgery. Conversely, though, one of the reasons L.A. was better than perceived going into the 2012 playoffs was its awful puck luck throughout most of the campaign, which turned around after the coaching change to Darryl Sutter, the acquisition of Jeff Carter and simply better fortune on its unsustainably poor shooting percentages.
Bubble teams
Minnesota Wild -- Even with the big free-agent additions of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, Minnesota has only risen from our 30th-ranked team from last preseason (and it played like it for the second half of 2011-12) to a fringe playoff contender this campaign. The Wild have talent coming through the pipeline, but it's likely a season or two early for Minnesota.
Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs -- Other teams that may have improved enough to plan for additional dates in May include the Hurricanes -- bolstered by "possession monster" Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin -- and the Maple Leafs. If you think back to last season, Toronto was right in the thick of the hunt at 48 games before its late-season collapse sent it to the draft lottery.
Cellar-dwellers
Columbus Blue Jackets -- At the other end of the spectrum, it's no shock that we foresee the Blue Jackets as most likely to finish last. Though they have picked up some building blocks for the future, the departure of Rick Nash won't help their short-term prospects.
Florida Panthers -- How about projecting last season's third-seeded Panthers as 29th in the league? Though Florida arguably has the league's most talented farm system, VUKOTA is bearish on the Panthers' prospects in the short term. A fortunate 18-7 record in overtime and the shootout helped them overcome a negative goal differential (minus-24). Florida's luck with "loser points" was similar to that of Anaheim in 2010-11, and we saw how that worked out for the Ducks in 2011-12.
Phoenix Coyotes and New Jersey Devils -- We also peg Western Conference finalist Phoenix and Cup finalist New Jersey as likely to fall from the postseason ranks. Expected regression by last season's top goaltender by GVT, Mike Smith, explains the Coyotes' fall, while the Devils have to deal with the departure of captain and top two-way forward Parise. That said, coaches Dave Tippett and Peter DeBoer have shown their ability to lift squads of mediocre talent, so it's possible that one or both of these teams will confound VUKOTA.
Final note
In terms of the projections, clearly some teams will do better than 61 points (prorated from 104 over 82 games) and worse than 47 points (prorated from 81). Likewise, chances are also good that the best and worst teams won't be the Penguins and Jackets. Why? Because some teams will have an unfair share of good and bad fortune in terms of both injuries and action on the ice.
What you see in our above projections are the most likely outcomes for each team, which end up more bunched up than they will be in reality. But there's no telling which teams will be the recipients of what kind of fortune. That's why they play the games.
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If we have a yahoo league going too, Send me an invite. My email was posted a page or 2 ago.
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I doubt Kovy walks away from that $100M contract, in fact, he would be stupid.
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@NHLAlert_: So Bozak, Frattin & either a 1st or a 2nd rounder will go to Vancouver. #Luongo to the #Leafs you heard it here first!
Many have "reported" this... Deal is pending til the new CBA is ratified. I don't believe it's confirmed by anyone yet.
Many have "reported" this... Deal is pending til the new CBA is ratified. I don't believe it's confirmed by anyone yet.
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WoW
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Is the Walking Penis really in consideration for the job?
Gawd I hope he gets hired just to hear the leaf fans reaction.
Gawd I hope he gets hired just to hear the leaf fans reaction.
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Nonis fills Leafs GM role.
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Rangers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
